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on Economics of Human Migration |
| By: | Yann Algan (Université Marne la Vallée, CEPREMAP and IZA); Pierre Cahuc (University Paris 1, CREST-INSEE, CEPR and IZA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a new empirical approach to uncovering the impact of social attitudes on economic development. We first show that trust of second-generation Americans is significantly influenced by the country of origin of their forebears. In the spirit of the epidemiology literature, we interpret this phenomenon as the consequence of inherited social attitudes. We show that trust inherited by second-generation Americans from their country of origins has changed over time. This result allows us to use the inherited trust of secondgeneration Americans as a time-varying instrument to track back the evolution of trust in the home country of their parents. This strategy enables us to identify the specific impact of inherited trust on economic development relative to other traditional candidates, such as institutions and geography, by controlling for country fixed effects. We find that inherited trust has explained a substantial share of economic development on a sample of 30 countries during the post-war period, by improving total factor productivity and the accumulation of human and physical capital. |
| Keywords: | social capital, trust, economic development, growth |
| JEL: | O10 F10 P10 N13 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2935&r=mig |
| By: | Pieter Bevelander (IMER, Malmö University and IZA); Ravi Pendakur (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | It is widely held that voter turnout among immigrants and ethnic minorities is lower than among the native born. The goal of our paper is to explore the determinants of voting, comparing immigrant, minority and majority citizens in Canada. We use the 2002 wave of the Equality Security Community Survey to explore the relationship between personal characteristics (age, sex, education, and household type) work characteristics, social capital attributes (trust in government, belonging, civic awareness and interaction with others) and ethnic characteristics (ethnic origin, place of birth and religion) and voting. We find that the combination of socio-demographic and social capital attributes largely overrides the impact of immigration and ethnicity. This suggests that it is not the minority attribute that impacts voting. Rather it is age, level of schooling and level of civic engagement which effects voting, both federal and provincial. |
| Keywords: | political participation, immigrants, ethnic minorities, voting behaviour, social capital |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2928&r=mig |
| By: | Örn B. Bodvarsson (St. Cloud State University and IZA); Joshua J. Lewer (Bradley University); Hendrik F. Van den Berg (University of Nebraska-Lincoln and IZA) |
| Abstract: | It is now well known that exogenous immigration shocks tend to have benign effects on native employment outcomes, thanks to various secondary adjustment processes made possible by flexible markets. One adjustment process that has received scant attention is that immigrants, as consumers of the goods they help produce, contribute to their own demand. We examine the effects of an immigration shock on labor demand by testing a general equilibrium model in which imperfectly substitutable native and immigrant workers spend their wages on a locally produced good. The shock induces three responses: (i) a substitution of immigrants for natives; (ii) out-migration; and (iii) stimulation of labor demand. According to (iii), native wages can fall, stay the same or rise, depending upon the strength of the shock and various product and factor market elasticities. As our test case, we reexamine the 1980 "Mariel Boatlift," using Wacziarg’s "Channel Transmission" methodology. Our data set includes approximately 6,600 observations for 1979-85 from the Current Population Survey on workers in 9 different retail labor markets and Survey of Buying Power data on retail spending by consumers in Miami and four comparison cities. Our results provide a more complete explanation for why the Boatlift’s overall effects on native wages in Miami were benign: Lower wages due to greater labor supply were offset by higher wages due to greater labor demand. We conclude that the demand-augmenting effect of an immigration shock is a significant secondary adjustment process that must be considered when assessing the distributional effects of immigration. |
| Keywords: | immigration, demand, wages, transmission channels |
| JEL: | J23 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2919&r=mig |
| By: | Jean-Christophe Dumont (OECD); John P. Martin (OECD and IZA); Gilles Spielvogel (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Two trends in international migration flows have attracted much attention recently: (i) the growing feminisation of migration flows; and (ii) the increasing selectivity of migration towards the highly skilled, which in turn has given rise to renewed concerns about the "brain drain" consequences for the sending countries. The two issues have not been considered jointly, however, mainly due to the lack of relevant data. This paper addresses this shortcoming by looking at the gender dimension of the brain drain, based on a new comparable data set that has been collected by the OECD and which allows us to identify people by country of residence, place of birth, gender and level of education. The evidence summarized in this paper shows that female migration to OECD countries has been increasing significantly in recent decades, so that migrant stocks are now more or less gender-balanced. A more surprising result is that this is also true for the highly skilled. Taking into account the fact that women still face an unequal access to tertiary education in many less developed countries, it appears that women are over-represented in the brain drain. This result is reinforced by econometric estimates showing that emigration of highly skilled women is higher, the poorer is their country of origin. This effect is also observed for men but to a lesser extent. It is not observed, however, at lower educational levels, where the traditional migration hump is identifiable. Econometric estimates also report a negative impact of emigration of highly skilled women on three key education and health indicators: infant mortality, under-5 mortality and secondary school enrolment rate by gender. These results raise concerns about a potentially significant negative impact of the female brain drain on the poorest countries. |
| Keywords: | international migration, gender dimension, brain drain |
| JEL: | F22 J16 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2920&r=mig |
| By: | José Luis Groizard (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Joan Llull (CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | We examine the empirical relationship between the migration rate of skilled workers and human capital formation in developing countries. In particular, we revisit Beine, Docquier and Rapoport (2007), who find evidence of an incentive effect. Our results suggest that an incentive effect is weak if not absent, since positive correlation among brain drain and human capital ex-ante is not robust to small changes in the specification. |
| Keywords: | brain drain, migration, education, incentives |
| JEL: | F22 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubi:deawps:28&r=mig |
| By: | Helena Skyt Nielsen (AKF, University of Aarhus and IZA); Nina Smith (University of Aarhus and IZA); Aycan Celikaksoy (AKF, SDI and University of Aarhus) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of immigrants’ marriage behavior on dropout from education. To identify the causal effect, we exploit a recent Danish policy reform which generated exogenous variation in marriage behavior by a complete abolishment of spouse import for immigrants below 24 years of age. We find that the abrupt change of marriage behavior following the reform is associated with improved educational attainment of young immigrants. The causal impact of marriage on dropout for males is estimated to be around 20 percentage points, whereas the effect for females is small and mostly insignificant. We interpret the results as being consistent with a scenario where family investment motives drive the behavior of males, while the association between marriage and dropout for females is driven by selection effects. The estimated causal effect varies considerably across subgroups. |
| Keywords: | education, dropout, immigrants, spouse import, marriage migration, family investment model |
| JEL: | I21 J12 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2899&r=mig |
| By: | Estrella Gualda (University of Huelva) |
| Abstract: | Previous research focusing on the study of immigrant offspring has shown inconclusive results and uncovered different ways of their incorporation into society. This contrasts with the unilateral model suggested by the more radical notions of “linear assimilation”, for instance, the possibility of an “upward” as well as a “downward assimilation”, giving rise to the segmented assimilation thesis (Portes and Zhou, 1993; Portes and Rumbaut, 2006). Some experts have given empirical evidence to support this view, but other researchers have pointed out that the model of “segmented assimilation” is not so productive in other cases or they have defended that it presents a pessimistic point of view on assimilation processes (see i.e. Alba and Nee, 2003). The majority of these debates have been focused on empirical data obtained in “old countries of immigration”. Since knowledge of second generation immigrant activity is of such importance to social, political and applied sciences in general the objective of this paper is to present a review of some of the theoretical and methodological problems encountered in the research of second generation immigrants in Spain and particularly in Andalusia and one its provinces, Huelva. It is hoped to contribute to the debate on the feasibility of researching this generation in “transitional contexts of immigration”, but also under the eye of the particularities regarding local contexts impregnated in a strong historical tradition of employing immigrants (at first national, later international migrants) according to the agricultural calendar. Primary data taken in Huelva and Andalusia (Spain), in a preliminary exploration, expose the similarities, differences and difficulties in researching second generations in transitional contexts. The first results, though preliminary, seems to give support to the thesis of segmented assimilation. |
| Keywords: | Second generation; children of immigrants; segmented assimilation; transitional countries of immigration; Huelva, Spain |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cmgdev:332&r=mig |
| By: | Michael Fertig (RWI Essen, ISG Cologne and IZA); Stefanie Schurer (Ruhr Graduate School in Economics) |
| Abstract: | Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of Germany's immigrant population renders general conclusions on the degree of economic integration difficult. Using a rich longitudinal data-set, this paper tests for differences in economic assimilation profiles of four groups of foreign-born immigrants and ethnic Germans. The importance of time-invariant individual unobserved heterogeneity and panel attrition in determining the speed of assimilation is analysed. We find evidence for heterogeneity in the assimilation profiles for both annual earnings and unemployment probabilities. Robust assimilation profiles are found for two cohorts only. Omitted variables, systematic sample attrition and the presence of second generation immigrants in the sample influence the speed of assimilation, but do not change the overall picture. |
| Keywords: | unobserved heterogeneity, panel attrition, sample selection, fixed effects, migration |
| JEL: | I12 C23 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2915&r=mig |
| By: | Matloob Piracha (University of Kent and IZA); Yu Zhu (University of Kent) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the savings behaviour of natives and immigrants in Germany. It is argued that uncertainty about future income and legal status (in case of immigrants) is a key component in the determination of the level of precautionary savings. Using the German Socio-economic Panel data it is shown that, although immigrants have lower levels of savings and are less likely to have regular savings than natives, the gap is significantly narrowed once we take loan repayments and remittances into account. Moreover, we find that marginal propensity to save for immigrants is about 40% higher than that for natives. We then exploit a natural experiment arising from a change in nationality law in Germany in 2000 to estimate the importance of precautionary savings. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the easing of the requirements for naturalization has caused significant reductions of savings and remittances for immigrants as a whole, in the magnitude of 13% and 29% respectively, comparing to the pre-reform period. Our parametric specification shows that the introduction of the new nationality law reduces the gap between natives and immigrants in marginal propensity to save by 40% to 65%, depending on the measure of savings used. These findings suggest that much of the differences in terms of the savings behaviour between natives and immigrants are driven by the precautionary savings arising from the uncertainties about future income and legal status rather than cultural differences. |
| Keywords: | migration, remittances, savings, uncertainty |
| JEL: | D80 E21 F22 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2942&r=mig |
| By: | Patricia Fernández-Kelly (Princeton University); Lisa Konczal (Barry University) |
| Abstract: | Nearly a decade ago the notion of segmented assimilation was first introduced to elucidate the differential patterns of incorporation of recent immigrants into American society (Portes 1995). The concept took stock of two concomitant trends (a) the rapid increase in migration to the United States, particularly from Asia and Latin America since the 1970s and (b) sensible changes in the character and quality of employment resulting from industrial re-composition and global integration during the same period. Segmented assimilation called for a nuanced understanding of immigrant prospects showing that absorption into the receiving society does not occur monolithically—it is affected by factors such as immigrants’ knowledge and skills, the type of their reception in areas of destination, and even the proximity of specific groups with which immigrant children relate at the local level. Variations resulting from the interaction of such factors matter especially in the age of globalization when employment alternatives are significantly different from those that were available to newcomers in the late 19th or early 20th centuries. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cmgdev:366&r=mig |
| By: | Patricia Fernández-Kelly (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | How do spiritual and religious values interface with the process of assimilation among the children of immigrants in the United States at the beginning of the New Millennium? The purpose of this paper is to address that question on the basis of ethnographic evidence collected between 2002 and 2006 in Miami-Dade County. I follow three lines of argument. First, I take stock of earlier works to show how religion and spirituality function as part of a cognitive arsenal that second-generation immigrants deploy to ‘make sense’ of new and often inhospitable surroundings. In the case of racial minorities this is a matter of critical importance because religious and spiritual narratives can be used to resist and combat normative stereotypes; they can also provide a means for individuals to redefine circumstances in ways that restore dignity, creating a bridge between despair and hope. Even more importantly, adherence to particular religious and spiritual currents can be used by immigrant children to claim new identities in their adopted country. |
| Date: | 2006–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cmgdev:350&r=mig |
| By: | Romain Aeberhardt (CREST-INSEE); Denis Fougère (CNRS, CREST-INSEE, CEPR and IZA); Julien Pouget (CREST-INSEE and IZA); Roland Rathelot (CREST-INSEE) |
| Abstract: | Our study proposes an econometric decomposition of the wage gap and of the difference in employment probabilities between French workers whose both parents had French citizenship at birth and French workers whose at least one parent had the citizenship of an African country at birth. For that purpose, we use data coming from the Formation Qualification Professionnelle (FQP) survey conducted by INSEE (Paris) in 2003. Our study is the first to estimate both employment and wage differentials between "native" French workers and children of African migrants. We find that one half of the employment gap and one third of the wage gap is not explained by differences in observable covariates between the two groups. This result is obtained by using a new method yielding more precise results when the sample size of the potentially discriminated group is small. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, wage differentials, second-generation migrants |
| JEL: | C24 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2898&r=mig |
| By: | Ray Barrell; Rebecca Riley; Fitzgerald, J. |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the macroeconomic effects of the migration that followed the enlargement of the EU in May 2004. At that time the EU was expanded to include 10 New Member States (NMS) predominantly from Central and Eastern Europe. In the wake of accession the number of workers migrating to the EU-15 from the poorest of the NMS increased significantly. In part the result of the liberal immigration policies adopted, and restrictive policies adopted elsewhere, Ireland and the UK have become popular destination countries for NMS workers. Here we illustrate the potential macroeconomic consequences of these migration flows across Europe, highlighting the impacts in both the receiving and sending countries. |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:292&r=mig |
| By: | David J. McKenzie (World Bank and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Individual level census and household survey data are used to present a rich profile of the young developing migrants around the world. Youth are found to comprise a large share of all migrants, particularly in migration to other developing countries, with the probability of migration peaking in the late teens or early twenties. The paper examines in detail the age and gender composition of migrants, whether or not young migrants move alone or with a parent or spouse, their participation in schooling and work in the destination country, the types of jobs they do, and the age of return migration. The results suggest a high degree of commonality in the youth migrant experience across a number of destination countries. In particular, developing country youth tend to work in similar occupations all around the world, and are more concentrated in these occupations than older migrants or native youth. Nevertheless, there is also considerable heterogeneity amongst youth migrants: 29 percent of 18 to 24 year olds are attending school in their destination country, but another 29 percent are not working or in school. This illustrates both the potential of migration for building human capital, and the fear that lack of integration prevents it from being used. |
| Keywords: | international migration, youth |
| JEL: | O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2948&r=mig |
| By: | Neil Howe; Richard Jackson (Center for Strategic and International Studies); ; |
| Abstract: | In recent years, policy experts worldwide have come to understand the importance of demographic projections in their efforts to think strategically about long-term challenges, from national security to retirement security. Much progress has been made in improving the fertility and longevity modules of the demographic projection puzzle. Little progress, however, has been made in dealing with cross-border migration or (more specifically, from the point of view of most developed countries) immigration. Official immigration projections, both in the United States and abroad, remain largely ad hoc and judgmental. Some projection-making agencies simply assume that net immigration will stay constant at the current level throughout the projection period. Most of the rest trend the current level until it reaches a “target” or “ultimate” level, which is typically based on the historical average over some recent period. A few agencies explicitly build their projections around current national immigration policy. When describing how they make assumptions, most agencies offer little more than a vague reference to “expert opinion,” “national policy,” or “historical experience.” Few if any use assumptions that are justified by any explicit reference to a theory of how or why immigration happens. The rudimentary state of immigration projections is a cause for concern. Over the past few decades, net immigration rates in most developed countries have surged, more than doubling in the United States and Western Europe as a whole since the 1960s. This surge has occurred, moreover, during a period in which both public opinion and immigration policy in most countries have grown increasingly restrictive. With undocumented or “illegal” entry growing faster than any other type of immigration, policy experts are no longer confident that total immigration is still subject to the effective control of national policy. The range of plausible assumptions regarding long-term immigration rates is therefore widening. Unbounded by any consensus projection method, this widening range can generate a similarly widening and often dramatic variety of long-term population outcomes. The spread between the “low” and “high” immigration variants for the U.S. Census Bureau projection for the national population in 2100, for example, is 417 million — from a total of 438 million in the low variant to a total of 854 million in the high variant (see Figure 1). This is a very significant difference from any policy perspective. The poverty of current projection practice contrasts sharply with the wealth of insights offered by the large and growing theoretical and empirical literature on the causes of international migration. On a theoretical level, researchers have identified a variety of dynamic social and economic processes that may explain migration. On an empirical level, they have come to some solid conclusions about which causal drivers ultimately matter and which probably don’t. This Issue in Brief describes a new “driver based” approach to projecting long-term international migration flows that draws on this rich literature. It begins with a general discussion of why, despite widespread pessimism, improvements in long-term immigration projections are indeed possible. It next explains how research into the causes of international migration could be harnessed to create a superior projection model based on relationships between immigration behavior and other projectable social and economic conditions, such as multinational trends in population growth, age distribution, wages, education, and market orientation or “globalization.” Finally, it describes how the proposed projection model could be used to help answer important public policy questions. |
| Keywords: | demographic projections, immigration, cross-border migration, immigration rates, long-term, developed countries, population growth, age distribution, globalization, “driver based” |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2006-49&r=mig |
| By: | Hendrik P. van Dalen (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | How does global aging affect the convergence in global economic development? Both the developing and developed world will be characterized for the coming decades by aging populations. Changes in the age distribution of a population are an important determinant of economic performance as they affect wealth accumulation and dependency burdens, yielding a demographic dividend of extra growth. During the twenty years from 1975 to 2005 Europe and the US have benefited from a strong demographic dividend. However, in the decades to come this effect will be reversed and the driving force behind the wealth of nations has to be sought elsewhere. Africa and, to some extent, India might benefit from the demographic dividend. However, this potential growth phase may well disappear if supporting conditions for growth are absent. Large-scale migration is not expected to be a sustainable solution to unbalanced global economic developments. Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Official Development Assistance (ODA) will remain necessary capital flows for the developing world in the near future. Remittances offer no structural solution to reduction of poverty as these funds flow to a selective group of families and are allocated generally to consumption rather than to investment purposes. Migration of a temporary nature in conjunction with offshore outsourcing of services and production may offer a solution for the dilemmas of population and development, which OECD donors face in offering development assistance and designing immigration policy. |
| Keywords: | aging; convergence; migration; remittances; population growth |
| JEL: | E2 F22 F35 J11 N30 |
| Date: | 2007–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070051&r=mig |
| By: | Shuming Bao (University of Michigan); Örn B. Bodvarsson (St. Cloud State University and IZA); Jack W. Hou (California State University, Long Beach); Yaohui Zhao (Beijing University) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1980s, China’s government has eased restrictions on internal migration. This easing, along with rapid growth of the Chinese economy and substantial increases in foreign and domestic investments, has greatly stimulated internal migration. Earlier studies have established that migration patterns were responsive to spatial differences in labor markets in China, especially during the 1990s. However, other important economic and socio-political determinants of interprovincial migration flows have not been considered. These include the size of the migrant community in the destination, foreign direct and domestic fixed asset investments, industry and ethnic mixes and geographic biases in migration patterns. We estimate a modified gravity model of interprovincial migration in China that includes as explanatory variables: migrant networks in the destination province, provincial economic conditions, provincial human capital endowments, domestic and foreign investments made in the province, industry and ethnic mixes in the province, provincial amenities and regional controls, using province-level data obtained from the National Census and China Statistical Press for the 1980s and 1990s. We find strong evidence that migration rates rise with the size of the destination province’s migrant community. Foreign and domestic investments influence migration patterns, but sometimes in unexpected ways. We find that as economic reforms in China deepened in the 1990s, the structure of internal migration did not change as much as earlier studies have suggested. Consequently, our results raise new questions about the World’s largest-scale test case of internal migration and strongly suggest a need for further research. |
| Keywords: | internal migration, investment, migrant networks |
| JEL: | J61 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2924&r=mig |
| By: | Kentaro Nakajima (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo); Takatoshi Tabuchi (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | The examination of long-term Japanese data on interregional migration revealed three stylized facts of migration behavior. Based on the facts, we formulated an operational model and estimated interregional utility differentials. We found that the interregional utility differentials have been converging until the late 1970s. We showed that the utility estimates are highly correlated with per capita real income. We also applied the model to interregional migration in the United States and Canada as well as the interindustry movement in Japan and confirmed the model's validity. |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2007cf496&r=mig |
| By: | Tatom, John |
| Abstract: | A program sponsored by the Indiana Economic Development Corporation aims to increase the quantity and quality of available human resourcesby encouraging former residents to come back. Indiana’s population growth has been weak relative to the rest of the country. Over the next 25 years US population growth is expected to slow (0.8 percent per year) and Indiana’s is expected to fall back more sharply (to 0.3 percent per year). Such slow growth in population and the workforce will curtail the pace of expansion of overall output and income in the US and all the more so in Indiana. A broader effort could usefully focus on recruiting others to migrate to Indiana or on inducing existing residents to stay. In-migration rates are strongly affected by state and local tax rates. A cross section analysis shows that each one percentage point rise in the tax rate will reduce the in-migration rate, and population and employment growth, by 0.41 percentage points. Modest cuts in state and local taxes could boost population growth to the national average, staving off decline in population and employment growth. |
| Keywords: | migration rate; taxes; growth; demographics |
| JEL: | H71 H3 J1 |
| Date: | 2007–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4307&r=mig |
| By: | Nina Schiller (University of New Hampshire and Max Planck Institute of Social Anthropology); Peggy Levitt (Wellelsey College and Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Dialogue and discussion are necessary for the development of any new field of scholarship or analytical framework, especially when the point of contention is a long-established paradigm. However, the development of Transnational Migration Studies has been marred by something less salutary. Often scholars entering the field do so with the fervor of a convert, pronouncing that he or she has seen the light. Unfortunately, in their fervor, some converts tend to misread, misrepresent, put aside, or merely ignore all that has come before them. Among the latest set of scholars to see the transnational light are Roger Waldinger and David Fitzgerald (2004). Because their article American Journal of Sociology article, “Transnationalism in Question,” epitomizes the pitfalls of neglecting or negating fifteen years of scholarly development, we feel it deserves to be critiqued at some length. |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cmgdev:354&r=mig |