nep-mig New Economics Papers
on Economics of Human Migration
Issue of 2007‒07‒13
six papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
Trinity College Dublin

  1. Why are Immigrants' Incarceration Rates so Low? Evidence on Selective Immigration, Deterrence, and Deportation By Kristin F. Butcher; Anne Morrison Piehl
  2. Participation and voting behavior in a direct democracy: a structural model of migration policy in Switzerland By Jaya Krishnakumar; Tobias Muller
  3. Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh By Mathias Czaika; Krisztina Kis-Katos
  4. Migration in OECD countries: Labour market impact and integration issues By Sébastien Jean; Orsetta Causa; Miguel Jimenez; Isabelle Wanner
  5. Integration of Immigrants in OECD Countries: Do Policies Matter? By Orsetta Causa; Sébastien Jean
  6. The unemployment impact of immigration in OECD countries By Sébastien Jean; Miguel Jimenez

  1. By: Kristin F. Butcher; Anne Morrison Piehl
    Abstract: The perception that immigration adversely affects crime rates led to legislation in the 1990s that particularly increased punishment of criminal aliens. In fact, immigrants have much lower institutionalization (incarceration) rates than the native born - on the order of one-fifth the rate of natives. More recently arrived immigrants have the lowest relative incarceration rates, and this difference increased from 1980 to 2000. We examine whether the improvement in immigrants' relative incarceration rates over the last three decades is linked to increased deportation, immigrant self-selection, or deterrence. Our evidence suggests that deportation does not drive the results. Rather, the process of migration selects individuals who either have lower criminal propensities or are more responsive to deterrent effects than the average native. Immigrants who were already in the country reduced their relative institutionalization probability over the decades; and the newly arrived immigrants in the 1980s and 1990s seem to be particularly unlikely to be involved in criminal activity, consistent with increasingly positive selection along this dimension.
    JEL: J1 J2 K4
    Date: 2007–07
  2. By: Jaya Krishnakumar; Tobias Muller
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the political economy of immigration policy in a direct democracy setting. We formulate a structural model of voting and participation behavior integrating instrumental and expressive motivations. The model is estimated using data drawn from a survey carried out after a vote in Switzerland in 2000 on a popular initiative proposing to implement immigration restrictions. The model enables us to recover estimates of participation costs and preferences towards immigration and analyze how these preferences are translated into actual political outcomes. The results reveal a substantial gap ("participation bias") between attitudes towards immigration in the general population and the outcome of the vote.
    Date: 2007–05
  3. By: Mathias Czaika (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg); Krisztina Kis-Katos (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of displacement behavior based on various push and pull factors at the village level. The study concentrates on changes in village population during three years of civil conflict (1999-2002) in Aceh, Indonesia. The empirical analysis is based on a unique data–set from two census rounds of the Indonesian Village Potential Census (PODES). It uses data on around 5200 Acehnese villages and relates village level population change to conflict variables and traditional socio-economic determinants of migration. By applying quantile regressions, the push (outflow) factors and the pull (inflow) determinants of migration can also be distinguished. The study finds that the negative impact of conflict incidence on village population stock is mainly driven by reductions in inflow for slightly affected (inflow) villages, and by an outflow push for severely affected (outflow) villages. After controlling for conflict variables, socioeconomic factors remain significant and robust determinants for explaining internal displacements. Villages that are more dependent on agricultural production experience larger population outflows, and smaller population inflows, which reflects a clear rural–urban migration pattern. The presence of small–scale manufacturing industries helps to retain village population. These results emphasize that forced migration cannot be considered as only a result of a unidimensional fear of violence.
    Keywords: Displacement, civil conflict, Aceh
    JEL: C21 D74 R23
    Date: 2007–05
  4. By: Sébastien Jean; Orsetta Causa; Miguel Jimenez; Isabelle Wanner
    Abstract: immigration for natives' labour market outcomes, as well as issues linked to immigrants' integration in the host country labour market. Changes in the share of immigrants in the labour force may have a distributive impact on natives' wages, and a temporary impact on unemployment. However, labour market integration of immigrants (as well as integration of second-generation immigrants - both in terms of educational attainments and of labour market outcomes) remains the main challenge facing host economies. In both cases, product and labour market policies have a significant role to play in easing the economy's adjustment to immigration. <P>Les migrations dans les pays de l'OCDE : Impact sur le marché du travail et intégration <BR>Les pays de l'OCDE connaissent une période de forte croissance des pressions migratoires. Cet article s'interroge sur les conséquences de ce phénomène d'une part sur le marché du travail domestique, d'autre part sur les trajectoires d'intégration propres aux immigrés dans les pays d'accueil. Des changements dans la proportion d'immigrés dans la force de travail peuvent avoir un impact distributif sur les salaires des natifs et un impact temporaire sur leur taux de chômage. Cependant, l'intégration des immigrés sur le marché du travail (de même que l'intégration des immigrés de seconde génération, aussi bien sur le plan de la réussite scolaire que sur celui de la performance sur le marché du travail) demeure l'enjeu principal auquel se doivent de faire face les économies d'accueil. Dans les deux cas, la régulation des marchés de produits et la politique du marché du travail ont un rôle important à jouer afin de favoriser les ajustements économiques associés à l'immigration.
    JEL: E24 J31 J61 J64 L43
    Date: 2007–07–04
  5. By: Orsetta Causa; Sébastien Jean
    Abstract: This working paper assesses the ease of immigrants' integration in OECD labour markets by estimating how an immigration background influences the probability of being active or employed and the expected hourly earnings, for given individual characteristics. Applying the same methodology to comparable data across twelve OECD countries, immigrants are shown to significantly lag behind natives in terms of employment and/or wages. The differences narrow as years since settlement elapse, especially as regards wages, reflecting progressive assimilation. Strong differences in immigrant-to-native gaps are also observed across countries, and the paper shows that they may, to a significant extent, be explained by differences in labour market policies, in particular unemployment benefits, the tax wedge and the minimum wage. In addition, immigrants are shown to be overrepresented among outsiders in the labour market and, as such, highly sensitive to the difference in employment protection legislation between temporary and permanent contracts. <P>L’intégration des immigrés dans les pays de l’OCDE : Les politiques sur le marché du travail comptent-elles ? <BR>Ce document de travail évalue la qualité de l’intégration des immigrés sur les marchés du travail des pays de l’OCDE en estimant de quelle façon le statut d’immigré influe sur la probabilité d’être actif ou employé et sur l’espérance de salaire, pour des caractéristiques individuelles données. En appliquant la même méthodologie à des données comparables pour douze pays de l’OCDE, les salaires et de probabilité d’emploi des immigrés s’avèrent significativement en deçà de ceux des autochtones partageant les mêmes caractéristiques. Ces différences s’amenuisent au fur et à mesure des années écoulées depuis l’installation, en particulier concernant les salaires, reflétant un processus d’assimilation progressive. De fortes différences entre immigrés et autochtones sont également observées entre pays et ce travail montre qu’elles peuvent dans une large mesure être expliquées par les différences de politiques sur le marché du travail, en particulier en termes d’allocations chômage, de coin fiscal et de salaire minimum. Les immigrés sont en outre surreprésentés parmi les outsiders sur le marché du travail et sont de ce fait plus sensibles aux différences de législation de protection de l’emploi entre contrats temporaires et permanents.
    Keywords: Aboriginal community
    JEL: J31 J61 J64
    Date: 2007–07–04
  6. By: Sébastien Jean; Miguel Jimenez
    Abstract: This paper assesses the consequences of immigration for natives' unemployment in OECD countries and investigates the role played by product and labour market policies in the economy's adjustment to immigration inflows. The estimations, combining a skill-level and an aggregate approach using data for males, cover eighteen OECD countries over the period 1984-2003. While no significant long-run impact is found, an increase in the share of immigrants in the labour force is estimated to raise temporarily natives' unemployment, over a period of approximately five to ten years. Anticompetitive product market regulations are found to increase both the magnitude and the persistence of this impact, while more stringent employment protection legislation magnifies its persistence, and a higher average replacement rate of unemployment benefits increases its magnitude. <P>L?impact de l?immigration sur le chômage dans les pays de l?OCDE <BR>Ce document de travail évalue les conséquences de l'immigration pour le chômage des autochtones dans les pays de l'OCDE, en s’intéressant particulièrement au rôle joué par les politiques sur les marchés des produits et du travail. Les estimations, combinant une approche par catégorie de qualification et une approche agrégée sur la base de données pour les hommes, couvrent dix-huit pays de l'OCDE sur la période 1984-2003. Aucun impact permanent significatif de la part des immigrés dans la population active sur le niveau de chômage parmi les autochtones n'est trouvé, mais une augmentation de cette part accroît temporairement le chômage des autochtones, pour une période de cinq à dix ans. Les régulations anticoncurrentielles sur le marché des produits augmentent l’ampleur et la persistance de cet impact, une législation plus stricte de protection de l’emploi accroît sa persistance, et un taux de remplacement moyen des allocations chômage plus élevé augmente son ampleur.
    JEL: E24 J61 L43
    Date: 2007–07–04

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