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on Minorities Research (Ethnic, LGBTQ+, Disabilities) |
| By: | Arlette Simo Fotso (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, CEPED - Centre Population et Développement - INED - Institut national d'études démographiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5); Jacob Martin (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques) |
| Abstract: | The World Health Organization estimates that that the highest prevalence of disability among individuals below age 60 is observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, knowledge of disability remains limited in the region, which is partly due to the lack of robust and comparable measurements of disability. In Sub-Saharan Africa, sub-national and comparable estimates of disability prevalence are limited. This paper aims to use comparable sources of data to estimate and construct an atlas of sub-regional disability prevalence. We take data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys which use the Washington Group on Disability Statistics short set of questions, which is designed to be a 'culturally neutral' disability screening tool. The questionnaire assesses limitations across six functional. We have data for a total of 26 Sub-Saharan African countries which were collected between 2016 and 2022. We aim to estimate the age-specific prevalence of functional limitation in the population aged 18-49 at the second subnational administrative division level in each country. Given the instability of direct estimates at the subnational level, we use recently developed small area estimation techniques that borrow strength over age and space. From our estimates we compute age standardized prevalences of limitation to facilitate comparison between regions and countries. Preliminary results show large heterogeneity between and within countries, but the amount of within-country differences varies from country to country. Overall, we found 682 subnational entities with age standardized disability prevalence significantly above 2.5%, 233 above 5%, and 31 above 10%. |
| Date: | 2026–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05716140 |
| By: | Devos, Louise (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | Religious discrimination in hiring is rarely studied independently from ethnic discrimination. We fill this gap using a preregistered factorial survey experiment in which professional recruiters evaluate candidate profiles that independently vary by ethnic majority versus minority names, visual religious signals, and volunteering activities signalling either Christian or Muslim religious affiliation. Beyond hiring intentions, we measure recruiters’, colleagues’, and customers’ anticipated willingness to work with candidates, as well as recruiters’ HEXACO personality assessments of the candidates. Candidates whose religious position recruiters identify receive lower interview ratings than candidates whose position remains unclear to them, and this penalty does not differ between Christian, Muslim, and atheist attributions; interview propensity declines further as attributed religiosity rises; and among the assigned signals, only religious volunteering reduces hiring chances. Religious candidates are not regarded as less diligent or less honest, but as less likely to be accepted by others. |
| Keywords: | religion, hiring, discrimination, factorial survey experiment |
| JEL: | C83 J61 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18906 |
| By: | Joshua Goodman; Samuel Nitkin |
| Abstract: | Private tutoring chains like Kumon and Sylvan have expanded rapidly in recent decades. Combining data on business locations, household spending, and district test scores, we study who uses these centers and how they affect academic skills. Nearly half of tutoring users are from the top income decile, with Asian and White households five and two times as likely to purchase tutoring as Black and Hispanic households. A staggered differences-in-differences design shows the opening of a district's first chain center raises district-wide math and reading scores by 0.02-0.03 standard deviations, at a much lower cost than public spending typically producing similar gains. Math effects are largest for White and Asian students, so that center entry widens racial achievement gaps, though less so in more racially integrated districts. These private investments help their users, deepen educational inequality, and shape outcomes by which state accountability systems and families judge schools. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35671 |
| By: | Alberto Bisin; Thierry Verdier |
| Abstract: | In this paper we survey recent advances in the economic theory of identity formation. We restrict our analysis to models which conceptualize identity formation as embedded into an inter-generational cultural transmission process, and therefore have implications for the dynamics of social identity. Through the lens of a general framework linking identity formation to cultural evolution, we discuss issues related to the dynamics of oppositional, racial, or minority attitudes, cultural polarization, identity switching, and openness to alternative identities. An application of the set-up to multidimensional identities constructed from combinations of characteristics, provides conditions under which societies converge (or not) toward narrow identities centered on salient markers such as religion, ethnicity, or race. We conclude by outlining promising avenues for future research. |
| JEL: | D1 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35506 |
| By: | Domi, Arrita; Esslinger, Anna; Kasper, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We conduct a correspondence study with 590 landlords across Austria and Germany to examine ethnic and religious discrimination in apartment rental markets. Examining how discrimination varies by landlord type, location, and apartment price, we find that applicants with Muslim minority names are 18% less likely to receive a positive response than applicants with Christian majority names. This result is mainly driven by private landlords, who discriminate at a much higher rate. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of anti-discrimination legislation is constrained by the fact that individual landlords often retain final decision-making authority. Finally, we use granular district-level data for Vienna to investigate how the interaction of price and location influences discrimination. We find that discrimination is largely absent for expensive apartments in central districts, but substantially higher for below-average-priced apartments in these areas. This pattern suggests that discrimination against Muslim-named applicants is particularly strong for affordable apartments in desirable neighborhoods, which may help explain the finding that migrants across the EU pay disproportionately more on rent than natives. |
| Keywords: | Correspondence Study, Discrimination, Rental Market |
| JEL: | R30 R23 J15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:343080 |
| By: | Hall, Suzanne; Farris, Sara |
| Abstract: | This article intervenes in debates on contemporary border politics by advancing the analytic of racial borderscapes and foregrounding the political economy that structures contemporary bordering regimes. Building on scholarship that understands borders as core to the production of unequal socio-spatial relations, we argue that borderscapes produce racialised differentiation that regulates and diminishes life chances through the combined operations of state and market. We introduce ‘ungrounding’ as a key concept to capture the systematic erosion of the material, legal and affective ‘ground’ on which migrants are able to build a life. Drawing on empirical and conceptual insights from South Africa and the UK, we demonstrate how racial borderscapes heighten intersecting exclusions of spatial isolation, gendered forms of extraction and labour precaritisation. In engaging with the intensification of border controls since the Covid-19 pandemic, this article shows how ungrounding exacerbates inequality, violence and dispossession. |
| Keywords: | racial borderscape;migration;space;gender;labour segmentation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140405 |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | After 2020, discussions related to Han nationalism in Chinese online space have increased markedly and have gradually become an important topic for understanding contemporary Chinese ethnic identification, historical narratives, and social contradictions. As the final article in this series of studies, the present paper attempts, from the angles of demographic change, resource allocation, ethnic policy, and national identification, to analyze the social background of the emergence and development of Han nationalism. The article argues that Han nationalism does not simply originate from historical sentiment, but is a form of identity-political expression formed in the process of change in Chinese social structure. With the decline in birth rates, adjustments in the mode of economic growth, and increases in social competitive pressure, some groups have begun to reopen discussion of the fairness of ethnic policy, the boundaries of the national community, and the relations of responsibility and interest among different groups. The article further organizes the principal demands advanced by some Han nationalists, including the abolition of preferential policies based on ethnic identity, renewed discussion of relations of autonomy and fiscal transfer in ethnic regions, and the improvement of social security for lower- and middle-strata groups. At the same time, the article analyzes the possible positive effects of Han nationalism—for example, pushing long-neglected questions into public discussion, emphasizing the principle of civic equality, and strengthening the sense of social responsibility of the majority group. Yet the article also points out that this body of thought possesses potential risks such as ethnicizing complex social problems, neglecting intra-ethnic class differences, and intensifying logics of group competition. This article does not attempt simply to affirm or negate Han nationalism; rather, it hopes, by organizing its internal logic and social background, to provide an exploratory analytical framework for understanding changes in Chinese ethnic identification after 2020. |
| Date: | 2026–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:35uar_v1 |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | This article examines the formation of modern Manchu identity and its relationship to Manchu–Han tensions within the context of Han nationalist discourse on the Chinese internet in the 2020s. It begins by analyzing the Qing Eight Banner system, arguing that the banners were not a single-ethnicity organization in the modern sense, but a political and social system composed of multiple identity groups including Manchu, Mongol, Han-martial (Hanjun), and bondservant (baoyi) populations. After the fall of the Qing, the former banner affiliation was gradually reorganized within the modern ethnic classification system, producing the Manchu identity of today. The article further discusses the process of reconstituting modern Manchu identity since the 1980s, contending that this process involves both historical continuity and the influence of ethnic policy, local administrative factors, and practical interests. When ethnic identity becomes linked to the allocation of public resources, social policy, and historical narrative, it may shift from cultural identification toward an identity of social interest. The article maintains that contemporary Manchu–Han contradictions are not purely ethnic conflicts, but the product of the combined operation of historical memory, identity recognition, class differences, and material interests. Reducing the binding between ethnic identity and the distribution of public goods, thereby allowing ethnic identity to return more fully to the domain of cultural identification, may be an important direction for alleviating related tensions. |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2wuge_v1 |
| By: | Matthias Rodemeier (Bocconi University); Jared Gars (University of Florida); Justin Holz (University of Michigan); Egon Tripodi (Hertie School); Juan Miguel Villa (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Governments increasingly encourage socially desirable behavior with probabilistic incentives. We study such “Pigouvian lotteries” in a retirement-savings field experiment with 387, 000 workers in Colombia’s public pension system. The lotteries induce sharp bunching at qualification thresholds, but workers mostly meet them by retiming rather than increasing deposits, leaving overall savings largely unaffected. Lotteries further crowd out valuable life and disability insurance and disproportionately reward wealthier savers. A welfare analysis shows that, once we account for these unintended consequences, lotteries reduce welfare. Our findings illustrate that behavioral spillovers across time and choice domains can reverse the verdict on behavioral public policies. |
| Keywords: | retirement savings; prize-linked savings; paternalism; informality; household finance; |
| JEL: | D14 D91 H55 C93 G52 |
| Date: | 2026–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:582 |
| By: | Kerler, Philipp; Petrović, Valentina |
| Abstract: | Economic grievances are central in explaining the rise of right-wing illiberalism. Grievances allow challenger parties to rally around scapegoating outsider groups, such as ethnic minorities, immigrants, or foreigners. Some research argues that continuing decline allows illiberal parties to consolidate power by entrenching and polarizing around such cleavages. However, when illiberal parties are in power and economic decline continues, we argue that, absent cultural cleavages, retrospective economic voting prevails. Zooming in on the case of Trstenik, a Serbian town with a significant industrial legacy, strongly affected by deindustrialization, we leverage data from a novel survey and semi-structured interviews in a mixed-methods approach. We document clear patterns of existing grievances and blame on the government. However, positive, hopeful interpretations also exist among affected individuals. We show that support for the illiberal right-wing incumbent Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is positively associated with positive interpretations and negatively associated with grievances. Our study contributes an important qualifying account to current debates about the economic roots of right-wing illiberalism by highlighting the importance of scope conditions. |
| Date: | 2026–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6rkx7_v2 |
| By: | Arlette Simo Fotso (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, CEPED - Centre Population et Développement - INED - Institut national d'études démographiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5); Jacob Martin (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques) |
| Abstract: | L'Organisation mondiale de la santé estime que la prévalence la plus élevée de handicap chez les personnes de moins de 60 ans est observée en Afrique subsaharienne. Pourtant, les connaissances sur le handicap restent limitées dans la région, ce qui s'explique en partie par le manque de mesures robustes et comparables du handicap. En Afrique subsaharienne, les estimations infranationales et comparables de la prévalence du handicap sont limitées. Cet article vise à utiliser des sources de données comparables pour estimer et construire un atlas de la prévalence du handicap au niveau sous-régional. Nous utilisons des données provenant des Enquêtes démographiques et de santé (EDS) et des Enquêtes par grappes à indicateurs multiples (MICS). Ces enquêtes utilisent le questionnaire court du Washington Group on Disability Statistics, conçu pour être un outil standardisé de dépistage du handicap « culturellement neutre ». Le questionnaire évalue les limitations dans six domaines fonctionnels. Nous disposons de données pour un total de 26 pays d'Afrique subsaharienne qui ont été collectées entre 2016 et 2022. Nous visons à estimer la prévalence spécifique par âge des limitations fonctionnelles dans la population âgée de 18 à 49 ans au niveau de la deuxième division administrative infranationale dans chaque pays. Compte tenu de l'instabilité des estimations directes au niveau infranational, nous utilisons des techniques d'estimation pour petites domaines récemment développées qui s'appuient sur l'âge et l'espace. Pour nos estimations, nous calculons des prévalences de limitation standardisées par âge afin de faciliter la comparaison entre régions et pays. Les résultats préliminaires montrent une grande hétérogénéité entre et au sein des pays, mais l'ampleur des différences intra-pays varie d'un pays à l'autre. Dans l'ensemble, nous avons identifié 682 entités infranationales avec une prévalence du handicap standardisée par âge significativement supérieure à 2, 5 %, 233 supérieure à 5 % et 31 supérieure à 10 %. |
| Keywords: | Handicap estimations sur des petits domaines enquête Afrique Afrique subsaharienne Disability Small area estimation survey sub-Saharan Africa 1, Handicap, estimations sur des petits domaines, enquête, Afrique Afrique subsaharienne Disability, Small area estimation, survey, sub-Saharan Africa 1 |
| Date: | 2026–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05716136 |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | This article examines the differences that have arisen among Han nationalism, Chinese nationalism, and international New Qing History in the 2020s concerning the interpretation of Qing history. It argues that the three narratives do not revolve merely around evaluations of the Qing, but respectively focus on questions of ethnic identity, imperial structure, and the historical continuity of the modern state. Han nationalism emphasizes ethnic hierarchy and historical rupture under Qing rule; New Qing History places the Qing within a comparative framework of Eurasian empires and stresses its multi-ethnic imperial character; Chinese nationalism emphasizes the Qing’s important role in the formation of modern China’s territory and national community. The article further points out that controversies surrounding the Qing in fact reflect different understandings within contemporary Chinese society of national identification, ethnic relations, and the allocation of resources. |
| Date: | 2026–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3qexh_v1 |
| By: | García-Pérez, Lidia; Ramos-García, Vanesa; Linertová, Renata; Valcárcel-Nazco, Cristina; Santos, Beatriz; Canal-Bedia, Ricardo; Iemmi, Valentina; Knapp, Martin; Scattoni, Maria Luisa; Schendel, Diana; Posada, Manuel; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Background Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition with significant impact on families and society. The objective of this article is to present the results of the first cost-of-illness study of ASD in Spain. Methods An observational, cross-sectional study was designed to estimate the annual cost per individual by means of an anonymous survey and a bottom-up approach to collect use of services and costs. A societal perspective was adopted, including direct costs related to education, health care, and social care sectors, and productivity loss. Results Complete responses of 334 individuals on the spectrum were obtained (mean age 12.3 years, 82% male, 46.4% with autistic disorder). The most used health care services were general practitioners (35.6%), accident and emergency services (15.3%), and community nurses (10.8%). Among specialized health care services, the most frequently used were psychologists, psychiatrists and other types of individual therapy. The most used drugs were antipsychotics. There was a variety of social services available and accessed. The most often reported service accessed by carers was additional visits to general practitioner (15%). The average annual direct cost of ASD in Spain was €10, 974 per individual (95%CI 8717–13879). Logistic regression found that individuals with anxiety, intellectual disability, and an autistic disorder were more likely to access services. The average cost of productivity losses per carer was €2186.4. Conclusions The average annual direct cost of ASD in Spain was €10, 974 per individual. Individuals with anxiety or intellectual disability co-occurring with autistic disorder were more likely to access services. Findings from this study would be useful to inform service planning and future research. |
| Keywords: | Asperger’s disorder;autism spectrum disorder;autistic disorder;cost-of-illness study;economic analysis;Spain;use of services |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:139038 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; David Slusky; Erdal Tekin; Hoa Vu |
| Abstract: | We examine whether expanded legal access to the contraceptive pill for minors generated health benefits for subsequent generations. We use data from the restricted-use Natality files from 1970-2020, linking mothers to the level of access to the pill in their state and year of birth and the extent to which their mothers could access the pill as minors. Our results show that children whose mothers were born after expanded access to the pill as minors had better birth outcomes, with gains concentrated among Black families. Among affected births, legalization increased birth weight by 12-16 grams and reduced incidence of low birth weight by 2.7-3.4 percent. These magnitudes have economic significance, corresponding to approximately $113.8–$115.3 million in medical cost savings, measured in 2025 dollars, for the 2000 Black birth cohort alone. Our mechanism analysis points to a postponement of early childbearing by the generation directly affected by legal access to the pill as minors whose daughters subsequently attained higher levels of education, used more prenatal care, and had longer birth spacing. Taken together, our results suggest that reproductive health policy can generate multigenerational benefits and contribute to reductions in racial disparities in early-life health. |
| JEL: | H75 I12 I18 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35722 |
| By: | Brahim Boudarbat; François Vaillancourt |
| Abstract: | This report analyzes the alignment between education and employment among university graduates in Quebec. In a context where a growing proportion of the population is accessing higher education, it becomes essential to ensure that this investment in education translates into professional integration that reflects the skills acquired. The analysis is based on microdata from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the National Graduates Survey (NGS), used to examine the rate of skilled employment among these graduates. The indicators examined suggest that Quebec’s university system performs relatively well, on a Canadian scale, in terms of alignment between education and employment. Graduates working in Quebec are more likely to hold jobs that match both their level and field of study. They also report higher job satisfaction and are more likely to choose the same field of study if they had to do it again. However, inequalities persist in access to skilled employment, particularly based on immigrant status, visible minority status, and the presence of a disability. These findings highlight the importance of continuing to invest in the university system while ensuring its ongoing adaptation to labour market needs. This includes adjusting enrollment capacity in fields offering better employment prospects, strengthening practical training within university programs, and improving mechanisms that match the supply and demand of skills. It is also important to support young people in their educational choices in order to encourage informed decision-making. At the same time, employers have a key role to play: they should become more involved in preparing graduates for professional life and adopt inclusive recruitment and management practices to fully leverage all available talent in the labour market. Sustainable improvement in the alignment between education and employment requires coordinated action from educational institutions, employers, and public authorities. Ce rapport analyse l’adéquation entre les études et l’emploi chez les diplômés universitaires au Québec. Dans un contexte où une proportion croissante de la population accède aux études universitaires, il devient essentiel de s’assurer que cet investissement en éducation se traduise par une insertion professionnelle à la hauteur des compétences acquises. L’analyse repose sur les microdonnées de l’Enquête sur la population active (EPA) et de l’Enquête nationale auprès des diplômés (END), mobilisées afin d’évaluer le taux d’emploi qualifié chez ces diplômés. Les indicateurs examinés suggèrent que le système universitaire québécois affiche, à l’échelle canadienne, des performances relativement favorables en matière d’adéquation entre les études et l’emploi. Les diplômés travaillant au Québec sont plus susceptibles d’occuper un emploi correspondant à leur niveau et à leur domaine d’études. Ils se déclarent également plus satisfaits de leur emploi et plus enclins à choisir le même domaine d’études si c’était à refaire. Des inégalités persistent toutefois dans l’accès à l’emploi qualifié, notamment selon le statut d’immigrant, l’appartenance à une minorité visible et la présence d’une incapacité. Ces résultats soulignent l’importance de poursuivre les investissements dans le système universitaire tout en veillant à son adaptation continue aux besoins du marché du travail. Cela passe notamment par l’ajustement des capacités d’accueil dans les filières offrant de meilleures perspectives d’emploi, par le renforcement de la formation pratique dans les programmes universitaires et par l’amélioration des mécanismes d’intermédiation entre l’offre et la demande de compétences. Il importe également d’accompagner les jeunes dans leurs choix éducatifs afin de favoriser des décisions éclairées. Parallèlement, les employeurs ont un rôle clé à jouer : ils devraient participer davantage à la préparation des diplômés à la vie professionnelle et adopter des pratiques de recrutement et de gestion inclusives afin de mobiliser pleinement l’ensemble des talents disponibles sur le marché du travail. L’amélioration durable de l’adéquation entre formation et emploi requiert une action concertée des établissements d’enseignement, des employeurs et des pouvoirs publics. |
| Keywords: | education-to-employment alignment, college and university graduates, labor market inequalities, Quebec, Labor Force Survey, National Graduate Survey, adéquation formation-emploi, diplômés universitaires, inégalités sur le marché du travail, Québec, enquête sur la population active, enquête nationale auprès des diplômés |
| JEL: | I23 J24 J62 J71 J28 |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2026rp-17 |
| By: | Karen Mulligan; Drishti Baid; Jason N. Doctor; Darius N. Lakdawalla |
| Abstract: | Health technology assessment bodies and policymakers have grappled with the issue of whose preferences – the general healthy population or the patient population – should be incorporated into traditional cost-effectiveness analysis. This debate arises because healthy individuals and patients often value the same health state differently, and cost-effectiveness will undervalue health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for individuals with chronic illness or disability because it cannot account for adaptation. Prospect theory (PT) provides a framework that permits adaptation since it assumes individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point. We estimate utility over HRQoL in a PT framework in a nationally representative U.S. population and compare directly with utility estimates in an EU framework from the same population. Consistent with previous studies in the monetary and health domains, we find evidence of probability weighting bias and loss aversion over health. Using the PT utility estimates, we demonstrate how PT can be incorporated into healthcare value assessment and present the resulting implications for medical decision making. |
| JEL: | D9 I1 I3 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35666 |
| By: | Mendelberg, Tali (Princeton University); Novoa, Gustavo (Princeton University); Pietrzak, Adrian C. |
| Abstract: | Americans want government to improve housing affordability. Yet proposals for affordable housing often encounter public resistance. We argue for a neglected explanation: concerns that these proposals are insufficiently affordable. Using four original surveys with novel, precise measures of affordability and randomized developer and landlord profiteering, we find wide support for affordable housing when it primarily benefits people of low means and does not favor developer or landlord profiteering. This support holds even when the hypothetical building is proposed in the respondent’s neighborhood, support entails tradeoffs and costly behavior in the survey, and the policy requires tax increases. The tax finding replicates in election outcomes of actual ballot measures. Pro-poor sentiments shape these preferences, above and beyond self-interest, and offset the negative impact of racial attitudes. Buildings and policies that satisfy these sentiments draw much higher public support. However, common policies fail to do so. |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:frehb_v1 |
| By: | E. Jason Baron; Arkadev Ghosh; Richard Lombardo |
| Abstract: | Many public-sector decisions require allocating scarce attention under uncertainty. We examine whether algorithmic risk assessments improve child-protection decisions, where supervisors decide which cases need closer scrutiny. In a randomized evaluation of 4, 752 child referrals over 14 months in Northampton County, supervisors received an algorithmic risk score alongside standard case records. Access to the score increased foster-care placements and services for children at highest predicted risk, with little change for lower-risk cases, and it reduced subsequent maltreatment referrals. We find no evidence that the score widened racial disparities in decisions or outcomes, suggesting algorithms can improve targeting while preserving human discretion. |
| JEL: | C93 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35540 |
| By: | Deutscher, Nathan (Australian National University); Siminski, Peter (University of Technology Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to understanding the causal mechanisms of intergenerational welfare persistence. We study veterans’ pensions, leveraging Australia’s Vietnam-era draft lotteries for identification and over three decades of administrative data with universal coverage. Deployed service increased veterans’ expected welfare receipt by 7.5 years (100.5%) and reduced employment (3.2 years; 30.2%). Effects for veterans’ spouses were qualitatively similar and approximately half as large. How did this affect their children? Despite high statistical power, we find almost no lasting effects on child outcomes, including welfare, employment, income, education, partnering and fertility. Direct estimates of causal intergenerational welfare elasticities are precise zeros, highlighting that welfare receipthttps://legacy.iza.org/en/webcontent/personnel/photos/personal_menu does not always spill over to the next generation. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, welfare dependency, veterans’ benefits, disability pensions, conscription, labour supply |
| JEL: | H53 H55 H56 I38 J22 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18876 |
| By: | Pagan, Gina |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404612 |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | This article is one of a series of papers examining Han nationalist ideology in China in the 2020s. It seeks to explore the phenomenon whereby discourse related to Han nationalism has increased in Chinese online space in recent years, yet has rarely been treated as an independent object of inquiry within China’s mainstream social-science research system. The article argues that this phenomenon does not simply stem from a lack of scholarly attention, but is related to the operating environment of Chinese social science. Analyzing academic tradition, research frameworks, academic norms, the functions of think tanks, and the situation of scholars, the article points out that Chinese social-science research has long been shaped by existing theoretical systems, modes of resource allocation, and traditions of policy research, making it relatively difficult for certain issues involving ethnic identity, historical memory, and identity competition to form independent research paths. The article further discusses the distance between theoretical systems and public discourse, and how this structure affects the explanatory capacity of Chinese social science with respect to social currents such as Han nationalism. The article does not attempt to provide statistical estimates of the scale or social support for Han nationalism in China; rather, it seeks to pose a question: when a social idea enters the space of public discussion, why does the existing academic system find it difficult to explain the phenomenon adequately? |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:asnbq_v1 |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia continues to struggle to lay the economic foundations of food security for all, more than 30 years after first adopting the East Asian Developmental State Model (EADS) under Zenawi (1911-2012), continued under Hailemariam Desalegn (2012-April 2018), and later shifting toward a neo-liberal, Washington consensus-oriented approach under Abiy Ahmed (2018-present). The achievements recorded under the EADS approach—particularly double-digit annual growth, substantial poverty reduction, and improved well-being—have, so far, not been sustained under the neo-liberal model. Instead, growth has slowed, inflation has risen, and poverty has increased. However, the neo-liberal approach is credited, particularly by the IMF, with initiating key reforms that may lay the foundations for future poverty- reducing growth. What can other developing countries learn from Ethiopia’s experience with two contrasting developmental philosophies in promoting structural transformation—from a low-productivity agriculture economy to a high- productivity, industrialized one? A key lesson emerging from Ethiopia’s ongoing experience is that sustained macroeconomic and political stability over a period of two to three decades— if not longer—is essential for any developmental strategy to yield long-term structural transformation and ensure food security for all. In the case of Ethiopia, the achievements and drawbacks of both approaches have been heavily influenced by the repeated shocks the country has endured, including prolonged droughts, floods, and heatwaves, compounded by various forms of political instability, such as widespread regional and ethnic conflicts. These recurrent shocks render any developmental gains fragile, particularly given Ethiopia’s pre-existing levels of poverty and vulnerability following the civil war that ended with the victory of the EPRDF over the Derg regime in 1991. The fundamental lesson: the necessity of a prolonged period of peace and stability to achieve sustainable and inclusive developmental outcomes. While this lesson may appear self-evident, it remains critically important and worth reiterating in a world marked by ongoing turmoil. Successful agricultural transformation requires decades—typically two to three decades, if not more—of sustained peace and stability. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb43_26 |
| By: | Isabelle Tsakok |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia continues to struggle to lay the economic foundations of food security for all, more than 30 years after first adopting the East Asian Developmental State Model (EADS) under Zenawi (1911-2012), continued under Hailemariam Desalegn (2012-April 2018), and later shifting toward a neo-liberal, Washington consensus-oriented approach under Abiy Ahmed (2018-present). The achievements recorded under the EADS approach—particularly double-digit annual growth, substantial poverty reduction, and improved well-being—have, so far, not been sustained under the neo-liberal model. Instead, growth has slowed, inflation has risen, and poverty has increased. However, the neo-liberal approach is credited, particularly by the IMF, with initiating key reforms that may lay the foundations for future poverty- reducing growth. What can other developing countries learn from Ethiopia’s experience with two contrasting developmental philosophies in promoting structural transformation—from a low-productivity agriculture economy to a high- productivity, industrialized one? A key lesson emerging from Ethiopia’s ongoing experience is that sustained macroeconomic and political stability over a period of two to three decades— if not longer—is essential for any developmental strategy to yield long-term structural transformation and ensure food security for all. In the case of Ethiopia, the achievements and drawbacks of both approaches have been heavily influenced by the repeated shocks the country has endured, including prolonged droughts, floods, and heatwaves, compounded by various forms of political instability, such as widespread regional and ethnic conflicts. These recurrent shocks render any developmental gains fragile, particularly given Ethiopia’s pre-existing levels of poverty and vulnerability following the civil war that ended with the victory of the EPRDF over the Derg regime in 1991. The fundamental lesson: the necessity of a prolonged period of peace and stability to achieve sustainable and inclusive developmental outcomes. While this lesson may appear self-evident, it remains critically important and worth reiterating in a world marked by ongoing turmoil. Successful agricultural transformation requires decades—typically two to three decades, if not more—of sustained peace and stability. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb43_26 |
| By: | Lane, Edward |
| Abstract: | Proposals to privatize Social Security through personal investment accounts rest on the assumption that equity markets will deliver real returns of 6 to 7 percent, exceeding what the current program can pay. This paper examines that claim from actuarial, financial, and fiscal perspectives and finds it fails in each. Actuarially, Social Security is not an investment account but a package of inflation-indexed insurance benefits, retirement, disability, survivor, and family coverage, delivered through a progressive formula; no private portfolio replicates this package at comparable cost. Financially, the paper applies the inelastic markets hypothesis (Gabaix and Koijen, 2021), which holds that a dollar of net equity inflow raises total market capitalization by roughly five dollars, to a 2005-style carve-out diverting approximately $330 billion annually into automatic, price-insensitive equity purchases. Under this framework, valuations rise approximately 28 percent above baseline within a decade, compressing forward returns by nearly one percentage point annually and generating roughly $15 trillion in capital gains accruing predominantly to the top decile of households. Crucially, the classical framework of Diamond and Geanakoplos (2003), in which bond issuance offsets equity flows and prices barely move, reaches the same policy verdict by a different route: the equity risk premium shrinks as risk spreads across the workforce, eliminating the excess return the proposal requires. Both models therefore undermine the projected returns, and neither changes the real economics of retirement, which is funded by future production, not financial claims. Fiscal analysis in the functional finance and Modern Monetary Theory traditions confirms that personal accounts financed by government borrowing create no new national saving. The paper concludes that if broader asset ownership is the goal, the appropriate instrument is a voluntary, low-cost add-on savings vehicle layered atop an intact Social Security system, not a carve-out of the payroll tax. In preparing this paper, the author used an AI assistant (Anthropic's Claude and Perplexity, powered by GPT-5.1) for drafting, editing, and formatting support. All analysis, arguments, and conclusions are the author's own, and all references and figures were verified against primary sources. |
| Keywords: | Social Security, Privatization, Personal Accounts, Inelastic Market Hypothesis, Equity Risk Premium, Asset Pricing, Wealth Distribution, Supeannuaation, Functional Finance, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory |
| JEL: | H5 H51 H53 H55 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:130383 |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the narrative of Zhonghua nationalism exerts influence over cultural production in contemporary China and analyzes its structural ramifications. Within film and television, specific historical themes are constrained from entering mainstream cultural production; in video games, certain historical factions are minimized or rendered entirely absent from narratives; in online literature, market mechanisms reflect historical preferences distinct from official state narratives through reader subscription behavior; in historical publications, ethnicity-inflected linguistic expressions from the past undergo textual revision; and within the Hanfu movement, Han culture is not directly suppressed but rather subsumed and repackaged within the overarching framework of "Zhonghua culture." |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vx7u9_v1 |