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on Microfinance |
| By: | Helen Leitch |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Private Sector Development - E-Business Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems Law and Development - Corporate Law Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Rural Development |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:21465&r=mfd |
| By: | Ekow Asmah, Emmanuel; Orkoh, Emmanuel |
| Abstract: | Utilization of health care services - both preventive and curative, is among the myriad of important determinants of health and remains an issue of significant policy concern and focus in developing countries. Despite the importance of health care utilization, there is evidence to confirm that many people in Ghana go without health care from which they could benefit greatly. This disturbing, yet preventable, state of affairs causes’ untold suffering and, given its wide scale, presents a major obstacle to the development process. A range of socioeconomic, demographic, and public health related factors work together to influence household health utilization but the extent to which access to formal and informal credit plays in the Ghanaian context has not been addressed in the empirical literature. Using recently released Ghana Household Living Standard Survey round six (GLSS, 6) in 2012/2013, this study examines the extent to which an individual’s relative control over household resources, gauged by loan amounts influence health care utilization. The results, based on logistic and multinomial regression model estimation, demonstrate that a one percent increase in the amount of credit accessed from a financial institution is associated with 0.611 probability that an individual will consult a health practitioner when ill. Other variables that significantly predict the tendency that a respondent will consult a health practitioner when suffering any infirmity include income of the household, insurance status of the individual, place of residence and household size. We also find that Individuals in different socio-economic strata (region, rural/urban) face different risks with health care utilization. Policies aimed at making credit available to individuals and households can make an important contribution to health care utilization in Ghana. Moving forward, health programs and interventions should be embedded in financial services and they need to be tailored to particular socio-economic groups. |
| Keywords: | Loan amount, Health care utilization, Multinomial logit |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62514&r=mfd |
| By: | Greene, Laura; Mamic, Ivanka |
| Abstract: | The world of work is changing. A major factor contributing to this is the proliferation of information and communication technologies, with mobile technology playing a central role. More and more people are able to access the Internet through their mobile devices. This has empowered them to work from anywhere but it has also led to the decline of traditional forms of employment. In the broader development context, mobile technology has been used extensively to reach beneficiaries and target audiences. Overall, this presents organizations with a challenge but also an opportunity to adapt projects and interventions to new technologies. This paper outlines technological and institutional hurdles related to the future uptake and implementation of mobile technology platforms and the use of mobile technology as a means of outreach. |
| Keywords: | choice of technology, information technology, social network, choix de technologie, technologie de l'information, réseau social, elección de tecnología, tecnología de la información, red social |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:486751&r=mfd |
| By: | Bokusheva, Raushan |
| Abstract: | The study develops the methodology for a copula-based weather index insurance rating. As the copula approach is better suited for modeling tail dependence than the standard linear correlation method, we suppose that copulas are more adequate for pricing a weather index insurance contract against extreme weather events. To capture the dependence structure in the left tail of the joint distribution of a weather variable and the farm yield, we employ the Gumbel survival copula. Our results indicate that, given the choice of an appropriate weather index to signal extreme drought occurrence, a copula-based weather insurance contact might provide higher risk reduction compared to a regression-based indemnification. |
| Keywords: | catastrophic insurance, weather index insurance, copula, insurance contract design |
| JEL: | C18 G22 Q14 |
| Date: | 2014–01–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62339&r=mfd |
| By: | Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis (Washington University in St. Louis); Leandro De Magalhaes (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | We use new and unique nationally-representative panel ISA data for Malawi, Tanzania and Uganda to explore the degree of consumption insurance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Partly, our contribution is to construct accurate and consistent measures of consumption and income across time and space for these countries at the household level from the LSMS-ISA Surveys. Our main result is strong evidence of income inequality leading to consumption inequality, in particular, in rural areas. First, our full-risk sharing tests suggest complete markets allocations are strongly rejected (though less so in urban areas). Urban households can insure better despite facing (as we discuss below) more sizeable permanent shocks, while rural households insure poorly even though they are likely to get hit mostly by transitory shocks. We use the richness of our data in its full extent to explore the robustness of this result to a large set of idiosincratic risks beyond income such as population risk, wealth risk (livestock, land), health risk (illnesses/injuries/hospitalizations), marital risk, migration risk, refugee risk, weather risk, and intermediate inputs risk. Our results are robust to the type of consumption item (food, clothing, etc.) and income source (agricultural, labor, etc.). Geographic determinants such as distance to roads, city, coastal areas also support our results. Further, we find that the degree of insurance decreases with the level of aggregation, that is, individuals within enumeration areas/districts tend to be more insured than across them. Second, we show that the raw and residual variances of income and consumption over the life-cycle are highly correlated in both rural and urban areas suggesting that income shocks do transmit into consumption in both areas. Further, we find that in rural areas residual inequality does not grow over the lifecycle, suggesting a prominent role of transitory shocks in these settings (not so in urban areas where residual inequality accumulates). These two cohesive observations, the fact that (i) consumption in rural areas (where the vast majority of households in these poor countries live) largely responds to income shocks and that (ii) these shocks are of transitory nature, cast doubt on the permanent income hypothesis for rural areas. Then, we explore market structures that can explain this finding: transitory shocks have strong implications for consumption growth in rural areas. To do so, we use an agricultural model with subsistence consumption that incorporates potential credit and savings constraints. To asses the effects of saving constraints we use information on substistence consumption, food security, storage technology (harvest lost and infrastructures) and crime/theft/violance indicators. To assess the effect of credit constraints on insurance we use complementary data on the ability to borrow that includes detailed information on loan applications and its outcome (this includes self-selection reports into loan application as those who did not apply but wanted a loan are also examined). Further, our decompositions of insurance tests across wealth (separately for livestock and land) groups further substantiate the evidence on credit constraints. The associated empirical tests find strong evidence of the presence of both constraints and their signicant eect on consumption insurance. Finally, we explore the dichotomies between self- and mutual insurance, and between private and public transfers. Using self-reported data on the use of insurance mechanisms we nd that those individuals that claim to be only mutually insured (e.g. resort to family, friends, etc. to cope with shocks) are able to insure their consumption better than those who are only self-insured (through savings, labor supply, etc.). In this context, the fact that relatively few individuals (about 20% only) rely on mutually insurance mechanisms suggests the presence of limitted commitment economies where default is highly present. Last, we nd little evidence of crowding out using the fertilizer policy implemented in Malawi, the most important public transfer conducted in these three country, as individuals receiving fertilizers also tend to be more privately insured. We conclude that low partial insurance is the norm in the rural areas of SSA and that credit constraints, savings constraints, and imperfect enforceability with a high risk of default are good reasons for it. The one lesson that we are learning is that theories that incorporate credit constraints, savings constraints, and some degree of lack of commitment are the ones more suitable to understand the degree of consupmtion insurance in SSA and possibly growth in these contexts. We are currently pursuing a quantitative theory of that short. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1287&r=mfd |
| By: | Mario Joao Gomes |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Private Sector Development - Business Environment Private Sector Development - Competitiveness and Competition Policy Private Sector Development - Business in Development Private Sector Development - E-Business |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:21468&r=mfd |
| By: | Iancu, Dan Andrei (Stanford University); Trichakis, Nikolaos (?); Tsoukalas, Gerry (?) |
| Abstract: | We study the interplay between financial covenants and the operational decisions of a retailer that obtains financing through a secured, inventory-based lending contract. We characterize how leverage affects dynamic inventory decisions, and find that it can lead to surprising non-threshold policies, and perverse incentives such as sales under-reporting. We show that, under perfectly competitive lending, financial covenants are necessary and sufficient to restore channel optimality, and emerge as critical contract parameters. We characterize the optimal covenant terms in equilibrium, and perform comparative statics with respect to important operational details. Surprisingly, we find that retailers operating under higher demands, lower inventory depreciation rates or higher profit margins face more stringent covenants. Furthermore, we show that covenants are not substitutable by other contractual terms, such as interest rates and loan limits, even under a monopolistic lending market. We study the effect of additional operational flexibility, and show that it can impact covenant effectiveness in a surprising, non-monotonic way. Our results are well aligned with empirical findings in the finance and accounting literature, and also yield new insights that could be tested empirically. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3246&r=mfd |
| By: | Leora Klapper; Frederic Meunier; Laura Diniz |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Information Security and Privacy Poverty Reduction - Inequality Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Private Sector Development - E-Business Information and Communication Technologies |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:21467&r=mfd |
| By: | Asad Zaman (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Arif Naveed (Cambridge University, UK); Atiq-ur-Rehman (International Islamic University, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | According to western views, wealth is unambiguously good, and so human welfare is positive when wealth is in excess of needs, and negative if it is less. Islam has a substantially more sophisticated view of the relation between wealth and welfare. Excess wealth is a trial, which can bring great rewards if utilized correctly, and also bring great harm if utilized incorrectly. Similarly, poverty is a trail which can bring great rewards if borne with patience and prayer, and also cause great harm if it leads to begging from others. Thus there is no clear and simple relationship between wealth and welfare. This means that Islamic approaches to constructing an index for welfare must be substantially more complicated than those currently in use in the west. It is worth considering the reasons for undertaking the project of measurement and assessing what needs to be measured, and whether measurement itself is necessary, for achieving these goals? |
| Keywords: | Wealth, Welfare, Poverty, Measurement, Index, Shari’a |
| JEL: | B59 I3 P4 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2014:112&r=mfd |
| By: | Steven A. Sass; Anek Belbase; Thomas Cooperrider; Jorge D. Ramos-Mercado |
| Abstract: | The brief’s key findings are: *Americans need to save more on their own for retirement, but human nature suggests they will focus more on day-to-day financial needs. *Analysis of a recent survey confirms that a household’s level of financial satisfaction is tied more to short-term – rather than long-term – concerns. *Even households that are in reasonable shape in the short term do not seem to focus more on distant concerns like retirement saving. *And households that are more financially literate appear only modestly more attuned to long-term financial issues. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2015-3&r=mfd |
| By: | Heathcote, Jonathan; Perri, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | Periods of low household wealth in United States macroeconomic history have also been periods of high business cycle volatility. This paper develops a simple model that can exhibit self-fulfilling fluctuations in the expected path for unemployment. The novel feature is that the scope for sunspot-driven volatility depends on the level of household wealth. When wealth is high, consumer demand is largely insensitive to unemployment expectations and the economy is robust to confidence crises. When wealth is low, a stronger precautionary motive makes demand more sensitive to unemployment expectations, and the economy becomes vulnerable to confidence-driven fluctuations. In this case, there is a potential role for public policies to stabilize demand. Microeconomic evidence is consistent with the key model mechanism: during the Great Recession, consumers with relatively low wealth, ceteris paribus, cut expenditures more sharply. |
| Keywords: | aggregate demand; business cycles; multiple equilibria; precautionary saving |
| JEL: | E12 E21 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10453&r=mfd |
| By: | Backiny-Yetna, Prospere; McGee, Kevin |
| Abstract: | Most of the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa live in rural areas where agriculture is the main income source. This agriculture is characterized by low performance and its productivity growth has been identified as a key driver of poverty reduction. In Niger, as in many other African countries, productivity is even lower among female peasants. To build policy interventions to improve agricultural productivity among women, it is important to measure the potential gap between men and women and understand the determinants that explain the gap. This paper uses the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition methodology at the aggregate and detailed levels to identify the factors that explain the productivity gap. The analysis finds that in Niger on average plots managed by women produce 19 percent less per hectare than plots managed by men. It also finds that the gender gap tends to be widest among Niger's most productive farmers. The primary factors that contribute to the gender productivity gap in Niger are: (i) farm labor, with women facing significant challenges in accessing, using, and supervising male farm labor; (ii) the quantity and quality of fertilizer use, with men using more inorganic fertilizer per hectare than women; and (iii) land ownership and characteristics, with men owning more land and enjoying higher returns to ownership than women. |
| Keywords: | Gender and Health,Housing&Human Habitats,Labor Policies,Gender and Law,Gender and Development |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7199&r=mfd |
| By: | Heathcote, Jonathan (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Perri, Fabrizio (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | Periods of low household wealth in United States macroeconomic history have also been periods of high business cycle volatility. This paper develops a simple model that can exhibit self-fulfilling fluctuations in the expected path for unemployment. The novel feature is that the scope for sunspot-driven volatility depends on the level of household wealth. When wealth is high, consumer demand is largely insensitive to unemployment expectations and the economy is robust to confidence crises. When wealth is low, a stronger precautionary motive makes demand more sensitive to unemployment expectations, and the economy becomes vulnerable to confidence-driven fluctuations. In this case, there is a potential role for public policies to stabilize demand. Microeconomic evidence is consistent with the key model mechanism: during the Great Recession, consumers with relatively low wealth, ceteris paribus, cut expenditures more sharply. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; Aggregate demand; Precautionary saving; Multiple equilibria |
| JEL: | E12 E21 |
| Date: | 2015–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:508&r=mfd |
| By: | Alfonso Arellano; Noelia Camara; David Tuesta |
| Abstract: | This study analyses whether self-confidence affects financial abilities of young people in Spain, through financial literacy. We use data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Financial Literacy (2012) report, conducted by the OECD. Our hypothesis is that non-cognitive factors are important to establish young people s financial literacy. Financial knowledge, together with other personal attitudes, determines people s financial behaviour. We focus on the role of self-confidence in four dimensions. First, the student’s self-confidence in the environment of their college; second, self-confidence referring to the utility found at school; third, self-confidence in relation to the results obtained; and finally, self-confidence in a broader sense. Our multi-level estimates show that students with higher levels of self-confidence score higher in financial literacy tests, whatever the dimension considered. Beyond the individual s inherent characteristics, there are other factors such as maturity, gender, socio-economic characteristics and the surroundings, which also influence financial literacy. |
| Keywords: | Developed Economies, Emerging Economies, Financial Inclusion, Global, Spain |
| JEL: | I00 D83 C81 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1428&r=mfd |
| By: | Fabian, Capitanio; Felice, Adinolfi; Fabio G., Santeramo |
| Abstract: | Rapid environmental changes can affect agriculture by introducing additional sources of uncertainty. Conversely, policy interventions to help farmers cope with risks may have strong impacts on the environment. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of public risk management programmes, particularly subsidies on crop insurance, on fertilizer use and land allocation. We implement a mathematical programming model based on data collected from 1,092 farms in Puglia, a southern Italy region. The results show that under the current crop insurance programmes, input use is expected to increase, while the effect on production is likely to be crop-specific. The policy and environmental implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty; risk management; input use; multifunctionality |
| JEL: | Q18 Q50 |
| Date: | 2014–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62505&r=mfd |
| By: | Kuzmin, Evgeny A.; Barbakov, Oleg M. |
| Abstract: | Research in changes to the institutional environment has set a scientific problem of a balance between consequences from such changes and a need to sort out differences across imperfect standards and regulations. Approaches to solve the abovementioned issue are not the same. In a review of scientific papers, we present an original view of scientists, who are committed to the Russian academic tradition. To clarify this, the paper summarizes theories on the efficiency of economic agents and institutions. The paper also demonstrates ambiguity in approaches to a definition of efficiency conditions. It justifies factors of an increase or a decrease in transaction costs in a horizontal and vertical institutional expansion, as well as a change to the transformational function. In the course of the research, existing saturation and sparsity as features of the institutional environment are discussed. |
| Keywords: | economic agent efficiency, institutional efficiency, saturation and sparsity of the institutional environment, borders of economic agents, institutional changes |
| JEL: | B52 L14 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62404&r=mfd |
| By: | Urvi Neelakantan (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond); Felicia Ionescu (Federal Reserve Board); Kartik Athreya (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we aim to understand the evolution of household portfolios, defined broadly enough to include both human and financial wealth positions, over the life-cycle. A key feature of our approach is to include lumpy initial investments (formal education) and subsequent “on the job†training à la Ben-Porath (1967), where both are risky. To our knowledge we are the first to study human and financial investment decisions in such a setting. An important payoff of our approach is a unified view of household wealth over the life cycle. Quantitatively, a key finding is that our model is able to account for limited stock market participation with no appeal whatsoever to transactions costs. Instead, “corner solutions†to stock purchases emerge naturally from the optimality of front loading investment in human capital. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1242&r=mfd |
| By: | Mtiraoui, Abderraouf |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to study the relationship between the economic sphere and the phenomenon of corruption was also seen by some economists as Leff (1964), Huntington (1968), Him (1985), Beck and Maher (1986) who argue that this relationship is beneficial to the economy because it would improve economic efficiency. We can also examine the creation of Transparency International and the work of Mauro (1995), which form the first empirical estimate for the same query. According to P. Mauro (1995), the harmful nature of corruption on investment and economic growth and hence the essential role played by the state in the development of nations. In this context, we must first of all, to study in more detail the concept of corruption, its definitions and its genesis. Then we try to develop approaches to corruption. For most economists D. Kaufmann et al. (2007), corruption has roots in the content of economic power. Corruption is rooted in the structural weakness of local institutions and the failure of public policy and decision control officials to lute against this social evil. Finally, we focus on the determinants of corruption ie the micro-economic determinants and macroeconomic determinants. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, fight against corruption, microeconomic, macroeconomic. |
| JEL: | O10 |
| Date: | 2014–12–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:60908&r=mfd |
| By: | Stéphane Carcillo; Rodrigo Fernández; Sebastian Königs; Andreea Minea |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an overview of the situation of youth in OECD countries since the onset of the financial crisis focusing primarily on describing the characteristics and living conditions of young NEETs. It also provides data on the availability, coverage and effectiveness of income-support policies for young people, and summarises available evidence on the impact of interventions that aim at improving the social, education and employment situation of the most disadvantaged youth. Due to the paper’s explicit focus on the hardest-to-place, most disadvantaged youth, the range of policies covered is broader than in earlier studies on the same topic, including various social benefits and in-kind services targeted at this group. The paper shows that NEET rates have not yet recovered from the crisis. There are large differences in youth unemployment and inactivity across countries, and these differences were further exacerbated by the recession. Reducing NEET rates is a great challenge for governments, as youth who remain jobless for long periods typically come from more disadvantaged backgrounds, have low levels of educational attainment, and are in many cases inactive. There is substantial evidence, however, that even the most disadvantaged youth can benefit from a variety of targeted interventions, including for instance special education programmes and mentoring.<BR>Cet article présente un aperçu de la situation des jeunes dans les pays de l'OCDE depuis le début de la crise financière, en se concentrant principalement sur les conditions de vie et les caractéristiques des jeunes NEETs. Il fournit également des données sur la disponibilité, la couverture et l'efficacité des prestations sociales, et fait une synthèse de l'efficacité des interventions qui visent à améliorer la situation sociale, l'éducation et l'emploi des jeunes les plus défavorisés. Il se concentre sur les jeunes les plus défavorisés et les plus difficiles à placer. À ce titre, l'éventail des politiques visées est plus élargi que dans les études précédentes sur le même sujet, comprenant tout l’éventail des prestations sociales et un large panorama des interventions possibles, allant des services sociaux à l’emploi, en passant par l’éducation et la santé. Nous montrons que les taux de NEET n’ont pas encore retrouvé leurs niveaux d’avant la crise. Il existe cependant de grandes différences entre pays dans le chômage et l'inactivité des jeunes, qui ont été exacerbées par la récession. Réduire le taux de NEET est difficile pour les gouvernements. Les jeunes qui contribuent le plus au chômage et à l'inactivité restent sans emploi pendant de longues périodes et viennent généralement de milieux les plus défavorisés. Dans de nombreux cas ils ne recherchent pas d’emploi et ont des niveaux d'éducation faibles ou pas d’éducation du tout. Il existe pourtant des preuves que ces jeunes peuvent bénéficier d’un large éventail d'interventions ciblées, allant de programmes d'éducation spécialisée au mentorat. |
| JEL: | I25 I28 J13 J15 J21 J24 J38 |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:164-en&r=mfd |
| By: | Asad Zaman (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Since the spirit of Islam is in stark and violent conflict with the spirit of Capitalism, the form taken by institutions designed to express this spirit must also be different. Capitalist financial institutions are designed to support the process of accumulation of wealth, which is at the heart of capitalist societies. Central to Islam is the spirit of service, and spending on others, which is expressed by diverse, service-oriented institutions, radically different from those dominant in capitalist societies. |
| Keywords: | Contingent Valuation Method, Binomial Logit Regression, Willingness to Pay, Solid Waste Management, Environment, Pakistan |
| JEL: | G2 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2014:111&r=mfd |
| By: | Alfonso Arellano; Noelia Camara; David Tuesta |
| Abstract: | El presente estudio analiza en que medida la autoconfianza afecta a las habilidades financieras de los jovenes en Espana, via sus conocimientos sobre cuestiones financieras. Para ello tomamos los datos del Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Financial Literacy (2012) llevado a cabo por la OCDE. Nuestra hipotesis es que la autoconfianza es importante a la hora de determinar el conocimiento financiero de los jovenes. Dichos conocimientos junto con otras actitudes personales determinan, en parte, el comportamiento financiero de los agentes. Se mide autoconfianza en las siguientes dimensiones: autoconfianza del estudiante en el entorno de su colegio, en referencia a la utilidad que encuentra en la escuela, en relacion a los resultados obtenidos y autoconfianza en su esfera mas general. La estimacion de modelos multinivel muestra que individuos con mayores niveles de autoconfianza obtienen mejores calificaciones en las pruebas de conocimientos financieros con independencia de la dimension considerada. Mas alla de las caracteristicas inherentes al individuo, existen otros factores como la madurez, el genero, las caracteristicas socioeconomicas y del entorno que tambien influyen en las capacidades financieras. |
| Keywords: | Economías Desarrolladas, Economías Emergentes, España, Global, Inclusión Financiera |
| JEL: | I00 D83 C81 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1427&r=mfd |
| By: | Takanori Ida; Wenjie Wang |
| Abstract: | We use a field experiment to examine how consumers respond to distinct combinations of default options (opt-in versus opt-out) and framing of economic incentives (gain versus loss). A randomized controlled trial (RCT) is implemented to investigate the demand reduction performance of three dynamic electricity pricing programs - opt-in critical peak pricing (CPP, incentive framed as loss), opt-out CPP, and opt-out peak time rebate (PTR, incentive framed as gain). We find that the opt-in customer enrollment rate is much higher than those documented in the literature are; our subjects’ high education levels and technology related experiences may have contributed largely to the mitigation of the opt-in default effect. In addition, we obtain precise estimates of the average treatment effects, with the treatment effect being most pronounced for customers assigned to the opt-in CPP group. This result is largely attributable to the high opt-in CPP enrollment rate and to the customer inertia generated by opt-out procedures. Furthermore, an “option to quit” effect is found among PTR customers. This finding is consistent with a growing behavioral literature highlighting that incentives framed as losses loom larger than those framed as gains. |
| Keywords: | Field Experiment, Behavioral Economics, Framing, Default Effect, Dynamic Elec- tricity Pricing. |
| JEL: | C23 C93 D03 Q41 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-14-018&r=mfd |
| By: | Olga Kupets (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, National University of “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy”) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the incidence and determinants of education‐job vertical mismatch in four non-EU transition economies, namely Armenia, Georgia, Macedonia and Ukraine. It uses cross‐section data from the recent World Bank’s Skills toward Employment and Productivity (STEP) surveys of working-age urban population and applies several methods of measuring the incidence of education‐job mismatch. The particular interest is to examine whether the young generation that acquired education in modern economic environment is different from the older generation that studied before or shortly after the onset of transition, and whether overeducated and undereducated workers are different from those who are well-matched in terms of cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Our study shows that although workers from the older pre-transition cohort have relatively higher incidence of overeducation in Georgia and Armenia and lower incidence of overeducation in Ukraine and Macedonia as compared to younger workers from the transition cohort, the effect of cohort and age is rarely significant when other important characteristics are taken into account. Overeducated individuals seem to possess a relatively worse bundle of skills than workers who are adequately matched to their jobs in terms of formal education, undereducated individuals often perform better than well-matched workers, but the differences are not always significant. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:915&r=mfd |
| By: | Mencía, Javier; Sentana, Enrique |
| Abstract: | We compare Semi-Nonparametric expansions of the Gamma distribution with alternative Laguerre expansions, showing that they substantially widen the range of feasible moments of positive random variables. Then, we combine those expansions with a component version of the Multiplicative Error Model to capture the mean reversion typical in positive but stationary financial time series. Finally, we carry out an empirical application in which we compare various asset allocation strategies for Exchange Traded Notes tracking VIX futures indices, which are increasingly popular but risky financial instruments. We show the superior performance of the strategies based on our econometric model. |
| Keywords: | Density Expansions; Exchange Traded Notes; Multiplicative Error Model; Volatility Index Futures |
| JEL: | C16 G13 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10444&r=mfd |
| By: | Grenadier, Steven R. (Stanford University); Malenko, Andrey (MIT); Malenko, Nadya (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | We consider a problem in which an uninformed principal repeatedly solicits advice from an informed but biased agent on when to exercise an option. This problem is common in firms: examples include headquarters deciding when to shut down an underperforming division, drill an oil well, or launch a new product. We show that equilibria are different from those in the static "cheap talk" setting. When the agent has a bias for late exercise, full communication of information often occurs, but communication and option exercise are inefficiently delayed. In contrast, when the agent is biased towards early exercise, communication is partial, while exercise is either unbiased or delayed. Given the same absolute bias, the principal is better off when the agent has a delay bias. Next, we consider delegation as an alternative to centralized decision-making with communication. If the agent favors late exercise, delegation is always weakly inferior. In contrast, if the agent is biased towards early exercise, delegation is optimal if the bias is low. Thus, it is not optimal to delegate decisions with a late exercise bias, such as plant closures, but may be optimal to delegate decisions such as product launches. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3049&r=mfd |
| By: | Jonathan Heathcote; Fabrizio Perri |
| Abstract: | Periods of low household wealth in United States macroeconomic history have also been periods of high business cycle volatility. This paper develops a simple model that can exhibit self-fulfilling fluctuations in the expected path for unemployment. The novel feature is that the scope for sunspot-driven volatility depends on the level of household wealth. When wealth is high, consumer demand is largely insensitive to unemployment expectations and the economy is robust to confidence crises. When wealth is low, a stronger precautionary motive makes demand more sensitive to unemployment expectations, and the economy becomes vulnerable to confidence-driven fluctuations. In this case, there is a potential role for public policies to stabilize demand. Microeconomic evidence is consistent with the key model mechanism: during the Great Recession, households with relatively low wealth, ceteris paribus, cut expenditures more sharply. |
| JEL: | E12 E21 E32 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20994&r=mfd |
| By: | Schmeiser, Maximilian D. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Gross, Matthew B. (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | We examine the evolution of mortgage modification terms obtained by distressed subprime borrowers during the recent housing crisis, and the effect of the various types of modifications on the subsequent loan performance. Using the CoreLogic LoanPerformance dataset that contains detailed loan level information on mortgages, modification terms, second liens, and home values, we estimate a discrete time proportional hazard model with competing risks to examine the determinants of post-modification mortgage outcomes. We find that principal reductions are particularly effective at improving loan outcomes, as high loan-to-value ratios are the single greatest contributor to re-default and foreclosure. However, any modification that reduces total payment and interest (P&I) reduces the likelihood of subsequent re-default and foreclosure. Modifications that involve increasing the loan principal--primarily through capitalized interest and fees--are more likely to fail, even controlling for change in P&I. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage Modification; Subprime; Mortgage Default; Foreclosure; HAMP |
| JEL: | D12 G21 R20 R28 |
| Date: | 2014–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-06&r=mfd |
| By: | Marco Paccagnella |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits data from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) to shed light on the link between measured cognitive skills (proficiency), (formal) educational attainment and labour market outcomes. After presenting descriptive statistics on the degree of dispersion in the distributions of proficiency and wages, the paper shows that the cross-country correlation between these two dimensions of inequality is very low and, if anything, negative. As a next step, the paper provides estimates of the impact of both proficiency and formal education at different parts of the distribution of earnings. Formal education is found to have a larger impact on inequality, given that returns to education are in general much higher at the top than at the bottom of the distribution. The profile of returns to proficiency, by contrary, is much flatter. This is consistent with the idea that PIAAC measures rather general skills, while at the top end of the distribution the labour market rewards specialised knowledge that is necessarily acquired through tertiary and graduate education. Finally, a decomposition exercise shows that composition effects are able to explain a very limited amount of the observed cross-country differences in wage inequality. This suggests that economic institutions, by shaping the way personal characteristics are rewarded in the labour market, are the main determinants of wage inequality.<BR>Ce document exploite les données de l'Évaluation des compétences des adultes (PIAAC) pour tenter de mieux comprendre le lien entre les compétences cognitives mesurées (le niveau de compétence), le niveau de formation (dans le cadre institutionnel) et les résultats sur le marché du travail. Après la présentation de statistiques descriptives sur le degré de dispersion des distributions des niveaux de compétence et des revenus, le document montre que la corrélation internationale entre ces deux dimensions d’inégalité est très faible et, le cas échéant, négative. Le document présente ensuite des estimations de l'incidence à la fois du niveau de compétence et du niveau de formation dans le cadre institutionnel à différents points de la distribution des revenus. Le niveau de formation dans le cadre institutionnel s’avère avoir une incidence plus importante sur l'inégalité, les rendements de l'éducation étant en général bien plus élevés dans la partie supérieure de la distribution que dans sa partie inférieure. Les rendements du niveau de compétence présentent, en revanche, un profil beaucoup plus plat. Ce constat concorde avec le fait que le PIAAC évalue des compétences plutôt générales, tandis qu’au sommet de la distribution, le marché du travail récompense des connaissances spécialisées nécessairement acquises dans l'enseignement supérieur et universitaire. Enfin, un exercice de décomposition montre que les effets de composition ne sont en mesure d'expliquer qu’un nombre très limité des différences d'inégalité des revenus observées entre les pays. Ce constat laisse penser qu’en façonnant la manière dont les caractéristiques personnelles sont récompensées sur le marché du travail, les institutions économiques sont les principaux déterminants de l'inégalité des revenus. |
| Date: | 2015–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:114-en&r=mfd |
| By: | Andrei A. Levchenko (University of Michigan and NBER); Nitya Pandalai-Nayar (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel identification scheme for a non-technology business cycle shock, that we label Òsentiment.Ó This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks that maximizes the short-run forecast error variance of an expectational variable, alternatively a GDP forecast or a consumer confidence index. We then estimate the international transmission of three identified shocks -- surprise TFP, news of future TFP, and ÒsentimentÓ -- from the US to Canada. The US sentiment shock produces a business cycle in the US, with output, hours, and consumption rising following a positive shock, and accounts for the bulk of short-run business cycle fluctuations in the US. The sentiment shock also has a significant impact on Canadian macro aggregates. In the short run, it is more important than either the surprise or the news TFP shocks in generating business cycle comovement between the US and Canada, accounting for up to 50% of the forecast error variance of Canadian GDP and about one-third of Canadian hours, imports, and exports. The news shock is responsible for some comovement at 5-10 years, and surprise TFP innovations do not generate synchronization. |
| Keywords: | Sentiments, Demand Shocks, News Shocks, International Business Cycles |
| JEL: | E32 F41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mie:wpaper:640&r=mfd |
| By: | Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one's own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant's home region - the in-group opponent - individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:177&r=mfd |
| By: | orcan, Oana B (University of Gothenburg); Lindahl, Mikael (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies); Mitrut, Andreea (Uppsala Center for Labor Studies) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the efficiency and distributional consequences of a corruptionfighting initiative in Romania targeting the endemic fraud in a high-stakes high school exit exam, which introduced CCTV monitoring of the exam and credible punishment threats. We find that punishment coupled with monitoring was effective in reducing corruption. Estimating the heterogeneous impact for students of different ability, poverty status, and gender, we show that fighting corruption led to efficiency gains (ability predicts exam outcomes better) but also to a worrisome score gap increase between poor and non-poor students. Consequently, the poor students have reduced chances to enter an elite university. |
| Keywords: | corruption; high-stakes exam; bribes; monitoring and punishment; |
| JEL: | I21 I24 K42 |
| Date: | 2015–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uulswp:2015_001&r=mfd |
| By: | Cheng, Si; Massa, Massimo; Zhang, Hong |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of the absence of short selling on the pricing of managerial skills in the mutual fund industry. In the presence of divergent opinions regarding managerial skills, fund managers can strategically use fees to attract only the most optimistic capital. The recognition of this fee strategy helps explain a set of stylized observations and puzzles in the mutual fund industry, including the underperformance of active funds, the existence of flow convexity, and the negative correlation between gross-of-fee α and fees. |
| Keywords: | Managerial skills; mutual funds; short-sale constraint. |
| JEL: | G1 G2 J0 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10447&r=mfd |
| By: | Peter Liapis |
| Abstract: | Trade facilitation matters. Estimates of trade friction costs from border and custom procedures are relatively high. Trade facilitation to allow for the speedy movement of traded goods may be more important for agricultural, especially perishable, products than for other goods because of their time sensitivity, especially for developing countries. Data suggest that many countries across the geographic and income spectrum have improved their performance on several trade facilitation variables. Concurrently, agricultural trade has grown substantially, especially from low and lower middle income countries. The data suggest that further improvements to trade facilitation in many low and lower middle income countries are needed for them to catch up with best practices. Impediments to trade remain, as indicated by the relatively high tariff equivalent of trade costs, especially on agricultural products. |
| Keywords: | agricultural trade, trade facilitation, developing countries, trading time, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, perishable products |
| Date: | 2015–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:74-en&r=mfd |
| By: | Sahni, Navdeep (Stanford University); Zou, Dan (University of Chicago); Chintagunta, Pradeep (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The prevalence and widespread usage of email has given businesses a direct and cost effective way of providing consumers with targeted promotional offers. While targeted promotions are expected to increase the demand for the promoted products, are these promotions effective in increasing revenues? Do they have effects beyond acting as price reductions? We study these questions using individual-level data from 70 randomized experiments run by a large online ticket resale platform. We measure the impact of emailed promotions by comparing purchases by individuals who received the experimental promotions with purchases by those who did not receive the offers because of the experimental randomization. We find that the offers cause the average expenditure to increase by $3.03 (a 37.2% increase) during the promotion window. However, ninety percent of these gains are not through redemption of the offers. Interestingly, the promotion causes carryover to the week after the promotion expires; we find that spending increases by $1.55 in the week after the offer expires. Additionally, we find evidence for cross category spillovers to non-promoted products--offers not applicable to a ticket genre cause an increase in spending in that genre. We conclude that emailed promotions can serve as a form of "advertising" for the firm's products. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3243&r=mfd |
| By: | Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre Pestieau; Grégory Ponthière |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous étudions l'impact des différences de longévité sur la conception des politiques publiques, en particulier celles liées au départ à la retraite. Nous montrons premièrement qu'alors même que l'espérance de vie a augmenté de manière très importante tout au long du siècle dernier, il subsiste encore de fortes disparités. Deuxièmement, nous étudions d'un point de vue normatif comment les différences de longévité sont généralement prises en compte dans les modèles de cycle de vie et montrons que certaines hypothèses peuvent avoir des implications fortes en termes de redistribution intra-générationnelle. Nous identifions au moins trois arguments en faveur d'une redistribution vers les agents à faible longévité : l'aversion à l'inégalité intertemporelle, l'aversion au risque de mortalité et la compensation pour des caractéristiques dont les agents ne sont pas responsables. Nous étendons ensuite notre analyse de manière à tenir compte du fait que les individus puissent être en partie responsables de leur longévité. Finalement, nous lions ces résultats aux débats actuels sur la réforme des systèmes de retraite. Nous montrons qu'en général, parce que les pensions de retraite sont conditionnelles à la survie des bénéficiaires, les systèmes de retraite publics vont redistribuer des ressources des agents dont la durée de vie est courte vers ceux dont la durée de vie est longue. Nous fournissons des pistes de réformes qui viseraient à mieux prendre en compte ces différences de longévité et en particulier, celles relatives à la création d'une « rente longévité » telle que souhaitée par le Comité d'Amours et au développement de l'assurance autonomie, qu'elle soit privée ou publique. |
| Keywords: | , Systèmes de retraite, mortalité differentielle |
| JEL: | H31 H53 I31 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-06&r=mfd |
| By: | Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont |
| Abstract: | The goal of theoretical economics is to explain how the monetary economy works. The fatal methodological defect of Orthodoxy is that it is based on behavioral axioms. Yet, no specific behavioral assumption whatever can serve as a starting point for economic analysis. From this follows for Constructive Heterodoxy that the subjective axiomatic foundations have to be replaced. This amounts to a paradigm shift. Nobody can rest content with a pluralism of false theories. Based on a set of objective axioms all economic conceptions have to be reconstructed from scratch. In the following this is done for the theory of money. |
| Keywords: | new framework of concepts, structure-centric, Structural Law of Supply and Demand, stock of money, monetary profit, transaction unit, banking unit |
| JEL: | B59 E10 |
| Date: | 2015–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62471&r=mfd |
| By: | Richard G. Newell; Juha V. Siikamaki |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of individual discount rates in energy efficiency decisions using evidence from an extensive survey of U.S. homeowners to elicit preferences for energy efficiency and cash flows over time. We find considerable heterogeneity in individual discount rates. We also find that individual time preferences systematically influence willingness to invest in energy efficiency, as measured through product choices, required payback periods, and energy efficiency tax credit claims. Individual discount rate heterogeneity is in turn significantly related to characteristics of the individual and their household, including their financial situation. Individuals with less education, larger households, low income, and low credit scores had systematically higher discount rates, as did black, non-Hispanic respondents. Our findings highlight the importance of individual discount rates to understanding energy efficiency investments, the energy-efficiency gap, and policy evaluation. |
| JEL: | D9 H43 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20969&r=mfd |
| By: | Garbinsky, Emily N. (Stanford University); Klesse, Anne-Kathrin (Tilburg University); Aaker, Jennifer (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Across five studies, this research reveals that feeling powerful increases saving. This effect is driven by the desire to maintain one's current state. When the purpose of saving is no longer to accumulate money, but to spend it on a status-related product, the basic effect is reversed and those who feel powerless save more. Further, if money can no longer aid in maintaining one's current state, because power is already secure or because power is maintained by accumulating an alternative resource (e.g., knowledge), the effect of feeling powerful on saving disappears. These findings are discussed in light of their implications for research on power and saving. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:2146&r=mfd |
| By: | James A. Brander; Barbara J. Spencer |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a new and simple model of endogenous horizontal product differentiation based on a standard demand structure derived from quadratic utility. One objective of the paper is to explain the “empirical Bertrand paradox” – the failure to observe homogeneous product Bertrand oligopoly, while homogeneous product Cournot oligopoly has significant empirical relevance. In our model firms invest in product differentiation if differentiation investments are sufficiently effective (i.e. if differentiation is not too costly). The threshold level of differentiation effectiveness needed to induce such investments is an order of magnitude less for Bertrand firms than for Cournot firms. Thus there is a wide range over which Bertrand firms differentiate their products but Cournot firms do not. If Cournot firms do choose to differentiate their products, corresponding Bertrand firms always differentiate more. We also establish the important insight that if product differentiation is endogenous Bertrand firms may charge higher prices and earn higher profits than corresponding Cournot firms, in contrast to the general presumption that Bertrand behavior is more competitive than Cournot behavior. Interestingly, consumer surplus increases with differentiation in the Cournot model but, due to sharply increasing prices, decreases with differentiation in the Bertrand model. |
| JEL: | D4 L1 L13 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20966&r=mfd |
| By: | Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin, Ingrid Peignier, Ryan Leenhouts, Serban Teodoresco, Miville des Chênes |
| Abstract: | <p><i>« L’industrie de la construction du Québec passe à travers sa plus grave crise d’éthique et d’intégrité ». </i>Cette affirmation a été entendue très souvent lors du déroulement du projet. Elle touche toutes les parties prenantes, à la fois les donneurs d’ouvrage, les firmes de génie conseil mais également les entrepreneurs en construction. Dans le contexte de suspicion actuel vécu par l’industrie de la construction, tout dépassement de coûts est perçu comme une malversation. Or, cette étude tend à montrer que tout projet de construction présente des risques intrinsèques. Le manque de consensus et de rigueur dans les médias sur la définition des dépassements de coûts a naturellement des conséquences sur la perception du public envers cette question. En effet, lorsque l’on évoque les dépassements de coûts, de quoi parle-t-on : <ul><li><i>de la différence entre la valeur du contrat à la livraison des travaux et l’estimation initiale (préparé au moment la décision de construire) ?</i></li></ul> <ul><li><i>de la différence entre la valeur finale à la livraison et le contrat signé ? </i><i></i></li></ul> <ul><li><i>ou encore de la différence entre la valeur du contrat signé et l’estimation initiale ? </i><i></i></li></ul> <p>L’amalgame des termes pouvant qualifier les dépassements de coûts et la surutilisation des mots <span>comme <i>« corruption »</i> ou <i>« collusion »</i> ont pour effet d’augmenter le niveau de confusion au sein de la population. Compte tenu de ces imprécisions, il nous apparaît plus difficile d’établir la cause exacte des dépassements de coûts.</span> Cette mise en contexte a donc clairement montré la nécessité d’avoir une définition claire des dépassements de coûts. <span>Celle-ci devrait englober l’ensemble des phases d’un projet de construction c’est-à-dire, de la préparation à la construction proprement dite. <b>Les dépassements de coûts correspondent ainsi à la différence entre la valeur du contrat final à la livraison des travaux et l’estimation initiale définie au moment de la décision de construire.</b></span> |
| Date: | 2015–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2014rp-13&r=mfd |
| By: | Nuno Ornelas Martins (Centro de Estudos em Gestão e Economia da Universidade Católica Portuguesa) |
| Abstract: | In the present article I address the implications of Thomas Piketty’s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century for our understanding of inequality and sustainability. I argue that although Piketty’s contribution is a significant one which has the potential to lead economic analysis in a more fruitful direction, its potential is constrained by its reliance on marginalist theory. The difficulties in addressing adequately the themes of inequality and sustainability spring from the assumptions employed in marginalist theory, which have been proven inconsistent in several debates throughout the history of economic thought. Once the constraints posed by marginalist theory are removed from Piketty’s contribution, its potential becomes much greater when addressing inequality, and has also important implications for such topics as sustainability, justice, and the environment. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, Sustainability, Cambridge Controversies, Capitalism |
| JEL: | B41 I31 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cap:wpaper:052014&r=mfd |
| By: | Patrick Bolton; Neng Wang; Jinqiang Yang |
| Abstract: | We formulate a dynamic financial contracting problem with risky inalienable human capital. We show that the inalienability of the entrepreneur’s risky human capital not only gives rise to endogenous liquidity limits but also calls for dynamic liquidity and risk management policies via standard securities that firms routinely pursue in practice, such as retained earnings, possible line of credit draw-downs, and hedging via futures and insurance contracts. |
| JEL: | G3 G32 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20979&r=mfd |
| By: | Chandrasekhar, C. P; Ghosh, Jayati |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that economic inequalities in India have been driven by employment patterns and changes in labour markets, which in turn have been affected by macroeconomic policies and processes as well as forms of social discrimination and exclusion. While many Asian economies have shown indications of rising inequality in recent decades, the Indian experience is particularly remarkable in the way inequalities have intertwined with the economic growth process. Structural change (or the relative lack of it) and the persistence of low productivity employment in India are strongly related to falling wage shares of national income and growing wage inequalities, and the close relationship between formal and informal sectors is the sharpest exemplar of this. Patterns of social discrimination along gender and caste lines have reinforced tendencies to create segmented labour markets that offer little incentive for employers to focus on productivity improvements. |
| Keywords: | labour market, interindustry shift, economic disparity, employment, career pattern, wage differential, productivity, India, marché du travail, mutation interindustrielle, disparité économique, emploi, profil de carrière, disparité des salaires, productivité, Inde, mercado de trabajo, desplazamiento industrial, desigualdad económica, empleo, modelo de carrera, diferencia del salario, productividad, India |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:486985&r=mfd |
| By: | Ahmed, Junaid; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada |
| Abstract: | Using bilateral data on remittance flows to Pakistan for 23 major host countries, in the first study of its kind, the authors examine the effect of transaction costs on foreign remittances. They find that the effect of transaction costs on remittance flows is negative and significant; suggesting that a high cost will either refrain migrant's from sending money back home or make them remit through informal channels. This can be better understood in terms of migrant networks and improvements in home and host country financial services. Distance, which has been used in previous studies as an indicator of the cost of remitting, is found to be a poor proxy. |
| Keywords: | remittances,geographical distance,transaction cost,financial services,Pakistan |
| JEL: | F22 F30 O11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201512&r=mfd |
| By: | Mason, Nicole M.; Tembo, Solomon T. |
| Abstract: | Many of the agricultural input subsidy programs (ISPs) currently being implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa include among their objectives raising farm incomes and reducing rural poverty. However, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on the extent to which ISPs are achieving these objectives. Moreover, results from previous studies on ISPs in Zambia and Malawi, and stubbornly high rural poverty rates in both countries despite many years of large-scale ISPs, have raised doubts that ISPs are effectively reducing poverty. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:198702&r=mfd |
| By: | Luigi Guiso; Paola Sapienza; Luigi Zingales |
| Abstract: | While both cultural and legal norms (institutions) help foster cooperation, culture is the more primitive of the two and itself sustains formal institutions. Cultural changes are rarer and slower than changes in legal institutions, which makes it difficult to identify the role played by culture. Cultural changes and their effects are easier to identify in simpler, more controlled, environments, such as corporations. Corporate culture, thus, is not only interesting per se, but also as a laboratory to study the role of societal culture and the way it can be changed. |
| JEL: | K4 Z1 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20967&r=mfd |
| By: | Grabowski, Philip; Kerr, John; Donovan, Cynthia; Mouzinho, Bordalo |
| Abstract: | The development of improved agricultural technologies has tremendous potential for improving the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Conservation agriculture (CA) has been widely promoted to improve farmers’ productivity and decrease their vulnerability to climate change. However, the benefits and challenges associated with reducing tillage vary by soil type and rainfall regime and the different minimum tillage technologies (basins, jab-planters, ox-drawn rippers, and tractor rippers) have unique labor, knowledge and financial requirements for effective use. Due to the complexity of both the livelihood strategies of resource-poor farmers and of their agro-ecological conditions, widespread adoption of any one form of CA is unlikely. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcwp:198703&r=mfd |
| By: | Feser, Daniel; Proeger, Till |
| Abstract: | Knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) constitute a major source of innovative knowledge for small- and medium-sized enterprises. In regional innovation systems, KIBS play a crucial role in distributing innovations and improving the region´s overall innovative capacities. While the specific properties and effects on client firms and sectors have been comprehensively discussed, the internal perspective of client firms, i.e. the processes and problems in selecting, using, evaluating and recommending KIBS, has been neglected to date. Using a qualitative approach, we describe the internal mechanisms and problems of SMEs cooperating with various KIBS and discuss the implications for regional innovation systems from a policy-making perspective. We find that all stages of cooperation of SMEs and KIBS are characterized by strong information asymmetries, distrust and uncertainty about the effects of using external know-how, which yields the interpretation that SMEs perceive KIBS as credence goods. While informal networks are used to reduce information barriers, they regularly prove counterproductive by disseminating worst-case examples. Regional policy aiming at developing instruments for fostering innovative cooperation could thus strengthen formal networks that primarily create trust between KIBS and SMEs to systematically reduce mutual suspicions and information asymmetries. |
| Keywords: | credence goods,knowledge-intensive business services,regional innovation system,small- and medium enterprises |
| JEL: | D21 D40 H25 H40 L23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:232&r=mfd |
| By: | Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O.; Omonona, Bolarin T.; Sanou, Awa; Ogunleye, Wale |
| Abstract: | Inorganic fertilizer use across Sub-Saharan Africa is generally considered to be low. Yet, this belief is predicated on the assumption that it is profitable to use rates higher than currently observed. However, there is little rigorous empirical evidence to support this notion. Using a nationally representative panel data set, and with due recognition of the role of risk and uncertainty, this paper empirically estimates the profitability of fertilizer use for maize production in Nigeria. The analysis finds that inorganic fertilizer use in Nigeria is not as low as conventional wisdom suggests. Low marginal physical product and high transportation costs significantly reduce the profitability of fertilizer use. The paper finds evidence that strategies to reduce transportation costs are likely to have a much larger effect on the profitability of fertilizer use than fertilizer subsidies. Apart from reduced transportation costs, other constraints such as timely access to the product; availability of complementary inputs such as improved seeds, irrigation, and credit; as well as good management practices are also necessary for sustained agricultural productivity improvements. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change and Agriculture,Crops and Crop Management Systems,Fertilizers,Fertilizers&Agricultural Chemicals Industry |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7201&r=mfd |
| By: | Michelle K. Derr Elizabeth Brown |
| Abstract: | This study found that the reasons for reported zero hours of participation are complex and difficult to quantify. Still, findings suggest that many TANF families are engaged in work activities but are not counted because of state reporting practices or difficulties with documenting client participation. In addition, limited state fiscal and staff resources have made it difficult to re-engage those not participating. Finally, because of resource constraints, states appear to focus on the families who, with a small investment, can get a job quickly rather than those who are hard to employ. |
| Keywords: | TANF Families, Work Hours, Participation |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:66aa2d2ff7004c2ab4348177fbe01b9b&r=mfd |
| By: | George, Emmanuel; Ojeaga, Paul; Adekola, Adetunji; Matthews, Oluwatoyin |
| Abstract: | Can foreign direct investment (FDI) promote growth in Africa? What does the inflow of investment hold for African emerging economies? Are the determinants of FDI different for different regional blocs in Africa? This study reviews the implication of FDI for different regional blocs in Africa. FDI was found to have a significant effect on growth in North Africa but had no significant effect in East, Southern and West Africa. FDI was also found not to be driving growth in the whole of Africa in a significant manner. The implications of the findings are that even though trade openness seems to be a major factor driving FDI. Poor domestic markets were still preventing many African economies from taking full advantage of the gains from foreign direct investment. The study results could be useful to scholars who study the dynamics surrounding FDI disbursement and strategies on how FDI can drive growth in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Political Economy, FDI, Regional Policy and Markets |
| JEL: | C23 C7 C70 E61 F42 G28 H5 L16 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62195&r=mfd |
| By: | Kamei, Kenju |
| Abstract: | A rich body of literature has proposed that pairs behave significantly differently from individuals due to a number of reasons such as group polarization. This paper experimentally compares cooperation behaviors between pairs and individuals in a finitely-repeated two-player public goods game (continuous prisoner’s dilemma game). We show that pairs contribute significantly more than individuals to their group accounts. Especially, when two pairs are matched with each other for the entire periods, they successfully build long-lasting cooperative relationships with their matched pairs. Our detailed analyses suggest that the enhanced cooperation behavior of pairs may be driven by (a) the mere fact that they have partners when they make decisions, (b) group polarization – those who initially prefer to contribute smaller amounts are more affected by the partners in their pairs, and (c) stronger conditional cooperation behavior of pairs to their matched pairs. |
| Keywords: | experiment, cooperation, dilemma, team work, public goods |
| JEL: | C91 C92 |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62438&r=mfd |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Microfinance Governance - National Governance Law and Development - Corporate Law Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:21422&r=mfd |
| By: | Arjan Lejour (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of bilateral and multilateral tax treaties on bilateral FDI stocks. First, we present panel regressions of the effects of treaties on FDI based on an extensive database of all OECD countries from 1985 onwards. We use geographic instruments to correct for the endogeneity of tax treaties. In contrast to many papers we find that these treaties increase bilateral FDI significantly. The incrase is about 16 percent and for new treaties this is even 21 percent. Moreover, the EU parent subsidiary directive doubles bilateral FDI stocks. Second, we analyse the effects of treaty shopping on FDI using the number of tax treaties as proxy for the attractiveness of a country for establishing a holding. This indicator has a significant impact on FDI: twenty extra tax treaties increase bilateral FDI stocks by about 50 percent. Lower withholding tax rates of dividends do also attract FDI. |
| Keywords: | bilateral tax treaties, instrumental variables, FDI, treaty shopping |
| JEL: | F21 F23 H25 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1403&r=mfd |
| By: | Lizzeri, Alessandro; Yariv, Leeat |
| Abstract: | Behavioral economics presents a "paternalistic" rationale for a benevolent government's intervention. We consider an economy where the only “distortion” is agents’ time inconsistency. We study the desirability of various forms of collective action, ones pertaining to costly commitment and ones pertaining to the timing of consumption, when government decisions respond to voters’ preferences via the political process. If only commitment decisions are centralized, commitment investment is more moderate than if all decisions are centralized. Commitment investment is minimal when only consumption is centralized. First-period welfare is highest under either full centralization or laissez faire, depending on the populations’ time-inconsistency distribution. |
| Keywords: | behavioral political economy; hyperbolic discounting; time inconsistency |
| JEL: | D04 D70 H1 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10458&r=mfd |
| By: | Francesco, Aiello; Graziella, Bonanno |
| Abstract: | Italy has experienced a restructuring and consolidation process in the banking industry since the 1990s’ that is expected to foster efficiency and competition. Despite the reforms, a peculiarity of the industry is the persistence of small mutual-cooperative banks (BCCs) active in narrowed markets. The scope of this paper is to evaluate the level and the dynamics of BCC efficiency compared with other bank-types and to analyze its main determinants over the period 2006-2011. Efficiency is firstly estimated with stochastic frontiers and then used as dependent variable in fixed and random effects models that have been run to regress BCC efficiency against individual and environmental factors. The latter are meant to gauge the structure of the provincial banking market, that is to say the reference market of BCCs. Results show that BCCs perform better than other banks, even though efficiency has decreased over time, owing to the effect of the current crisis. Furthermore, BCC efficiency increases with market concentration and demand density and decreases as bank branches increase in local markets. This holds whatever the frontier (cost or profit). Finally, local development negatively affects (only) cost efficiency, while BCCs gain in generating profits when systemic credit risk increases. |
| Keywords: | Mutual-cooperative banks; local markets; stochastic frontiers; efficiency determinants |
| JEL: | C13 D21 D22 G21 O16 P13 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62486&r=mfd |
| By: | More, Sachin; Singh, Narendra |
| Abstract: | Poverty is a major hurdle of inclusive economic growth in any country. Thus eradication of poverty is become one of the important objectives of Government programme especially for developing country like India. To effectively design and execute the poverty eradication programme, government has to describe the meaning of poverty and explain how they can measure it. This paper brings together movement in the meaning of term poverty used by Government of India over the year and its measurement. The magnitude of poverty over the time and across the various State where also reported along with important highlight of various task force constituted by planning commission of India( Now it is called as Niti Ayog). |
| Keywords: | Poverty Lakdawala Committee Tendulkar Committee Task Force |
| JEL: | I3 I32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62400&r=mfd |
| By: | Marzena Starnawska (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurial behavior in challenging institutional environments have been widely investigated in the literature. One of the characteristics of these environments is resource scarcity. This is particularly valid in the context of social entrepreneurship and social enterprises. The aim of this paper is to identify entrepreneurial behaviors in social entrepreneurship and what is happening behind these processes in the context of transition country, against the backdrop of challenging environment and weak institutional framework in particular in Poland. We use a purposive sample of 5 social cooperatives, and report the data from several in-depth interviews with their representatives as well as observation from the cooperatives. We have attempted to widen the existing categories on entrepreneurial behavior namely boundary blurring and diversification, and discuss them in social entrepreneurship context. |
| Keywords: | social entrepreneurship, social enterprise, entrepreneurial behavior, social cooperatives, institutions |
| JEL: | L31 L26 P13 D22 D02 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdk:wpaper:28&r=mfd |
| By: | Claudia Steinwender |
| Abstract: | A variety of empirical and theoretical trade papers have suggested and documented a positive impact of trade on the productivity of firms. However, there is less consensus about the underlying mechanism at work. While trade papers focus on access to export markets, other papers stress the importance of import competition. Since imports and exports (and even tariffs affecting either) are usually highly correlated, it is unclear which mechanism the existing empirical papers uncover. This paper conducts a "horse race" between export opportunities and import competition. Using Spanish firm level data, instrumenting for exports and imports with tariff changes and controlling for selection, I find robust evidence that access to export markets leads to productivity increases, but only for firms that were already highly productive before. The evidence on import competition is weaker. If anything, initially low-tech firms manage to increase their productivity in response to increased competition from abroad. The latter finding is at odds with most trade models, so I propose a model incorporating non-profit maximizing managers to reconcile theory with the evidence. Empirically, I find that all productivity upgrades are driven by increased R&D, patenting, and product innovation. Access to export markets also leads to the adaptation of foreign technologies. There is no evidence that either mechanism leads to increased full time employment, instead full time workers seem to be replaced by part-time or temporary workers. |
| Keywords: | Import competition, technical change, productivity, exporting |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F14 L25 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1334&r=mfd |
| By: | Brañas-Garza, Pablo; Coulson, Mark; Kernohan, David; Oyediran, Olusegun; Rivas, M. Fernanda |
| Abstract: | This study examined latent racial prejudice towards specified out-groups among 152 Spanish college students in a two-stage research strategy using a public goods game. When asked how generous various out-groups are, Asian, and Western groups were perceived as more generous than the in-group, whereas African and Latin American groups were perceived as less generous. When participants were incentivized, with payoff contingent on the accuracy of guesses, and accuracy quantified as performance of the relevant groups in a similar task to the one employed here, participants evidenced prejudice against African and Latin American groups, and towards Asian and Western groups. Models of racial beliefs were fitted for the four groups, however we do not find satisfactory explanations for why questionnaire response and lab behaviour did not match. Implications of the use of behavioural economic games in prejudice research are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs; Prejudice; Public Goods Game |
| JEL: | C91 H41 J15 |
| Date: | 2014–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62377&r=mfd |
| By: | Jacob Assa (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the inconsistent treatment of financial services in the national accounts. While net interest income from financial intermediation is netted out as input to other industries and thus does not affect the overall level and trend of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), fee-based net income from financial services is included as value-added, inflating GDP by the same amount. A new measure of economic activity which resolves this inconsistency is introduced, treating all financial income as a cost or intermediate input to the rest of the economy. The resulting aggregate tracks employment and median income far more closely than GDP. |
| Keywords: | Measurement of real output; employment; national accounting; finance |
| JEL: | E01 E20 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1501&r=mfd |
| By: | Hichaambwa, Munguzwe; Chamberlin, Jordan; Sitko, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Rural land titling has stronger impacts on farm investments for female title-holders than for male title-holders. This effect is particularly pronounced for investments which are less capital-intensive. The gendered impacts of smallholder ownership of land titles may have to do with systematic differences in tenure security under traditional systems. Policies and programmes aimed at encouraging female access to land titles can improve the economic impact of agricultural land titling through increases in productivity and land productivity enhancing investments. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midcpb:198704&r=mfd |
| By: | Peitz, Martin; Schuett, Florian |
| Abstract: | Under strict net neutrality Internet service providers (ISPs) are required to carry data without any differentiation and at no cost to the content provider. We provide a simple framework with a monopoly ISP to evaluate different net neutrality rules. Content differs in its sensitivity to delay. Content providers can use congestion control techniques to reduce delay for their content, but do not take into account the effect of their decisions on the aggregate volume of traffic. As a result, strict net neutrality often leads to socially inefficient traffic in ation. We show that piece-meal departures from net neutrality, such as transmission fees or prioritization based on sensitivity to delay, do not necessarily improve efficiency. However, allowing the ISP to introduce bandwidth tiering and charge for prioritized delivery can implement the efficient allocation. |
| Keywords: | Net neutrality , network congestion , telecommunications , quality of service |
| JEL: | L12 L51 L86 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnh:wpaper:37535&r=mfd |
| By: | Angel De la Fuente; Rafael Domenech Vilarino |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se construyen series anuales del nivel educativo de la poblacion para Espana y sus regiones durante el periodo 1960-2011 utilizando la informacion que proporcionan los censos de poblacion. Estas series actualizan y mejoran las elaboradas en de la Fuente y Domenech (2006). |
| Keywords: | anos de escolarizacion, convergencia, productividad, desempleo, educacion, regiones espanolas |
| JEL: | I20 R10 O40 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1507&r=mfd |
| By: | Jaime Zurita |
| Abstract: | La crisis ha fomentado la consolidacion y concentracion de muchos sectores bancarios, alimentando el debate sobre los efectos de una mayor concentracion sobre el nivel de competencia y la estabilidad del sistema. No obstante, las conclusiones de la literatura sobre este tema no soportan que exista una relacion directa entre concentracion y poder de mercado en los sistemas bancarios. Multiples estudios tratan de contrastar la existencia de esta relacion en sistemas bancarios completos, o realizando una simple segmentacion entre bancos grandes y pequenos. Estos estudios no encuentran una relacion directa entre concentracion y poder de mercado, excepto en el caso de paises desarrollados y bancos muy grandes. La conclusion principal es que la mayor o menor concentracion de un mercado es una variable a tener en cuenta a la hora de estudiar la competencia de un sistema financiero, pero hay otras variables que influyen tambien en la actividad de las entidades y el nivel de competencia de los sistemas, entre las que hay que mencionar la herencia historica politica de cada pais, la contestabilidad del mercado, el entorno institucional y regulatorio y el ciclo economico, entre otras. |
| Keywords: | Concentracion, Competencia, Consolidacion, Panzar-Rosse |
| JEL: | G21 L11 L13 L21 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1423&r=mfd |
| By: | Mensah, Justice Tei (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Elofsson, Katarina (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Kjellander, Petter (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a bioeconomic model to analyze the role of interspecies competition between roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and fallow deer (Dama dama) and the implications of the competition on optimal harvesting strategies. Analytical solutions derived from the model suggest that the degree of inter-specie competition is an important factor in the landowner’s decision to maintain a given population of both species, as it affects the net marginal benefit from managing the two species. Our numerical results suggest that the effect of inter-species competition on total net economic benefit is small compared to the impact on roe deer population density. Inclusion of trophy values implies reduced harvest of young males, but also reduced harvest of females. Our model also shows that a pulse harvesting regime for the dominant species is economically optimal. |
| Keywords: | Stage-structured modeling; Optimal management; Species competition; Bioeconomic |
| JEL: | Q26 Q57 |
| Date: | 2015–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slueko:2015_002&r=mfd |
| By: | Sahni, Navdeep (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to understand the impact of temporal spacing between ad exposures on the likelihood of a consumer purchasing the advertised product. I create an individual-level data set with exogenous variation in the spacing and intensity of ads by running online field experiments. Using this data set, I first show that (1) ads significantly increase the likelihood of the consumers purchasing from the advertiser and (2) this increase carries over to future purchase occasions. Importantly, I find evidence for the spacing effect: the likelihood of a product's purchase increases if the product's past ads are spread apart rather than bunched together, even if the spreading apart of ads involves shifting some ads away from the purchase occasion. Because the traditional models of advertising do not explain the data patterns, I build a new memory-based model of how advertising influences consumer behavior. Using a nested test, I reject the restrictions imposed by the canonical goodwill stock model based on the Nerlove and Arrow [1962] approach, in favor of the more general memory-based model. Counterfactual simulations using the parameter estimates show that not accounting for the features of the memory model might lead to significantly lower profits for the advertisers. |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:2138&r=mfd |
| By: | Vanasco, Victoria (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of securitization that highlights the link between information acquisition at the loan screening stage and liquidity in markets where securities backed by loan cashflows are sold. While information is beneficial ex-ante when used to screen loans, it becomes detrimental ex-post because it introduces a problem of adverse selection. The model matches key features of the securitization practice, such as the tranching of loan cashflows, and it predicts that when gains from securitization are 'sufficiently' large, loan screening is inefficiently low. There are two channels that drive this inefficiency. First, when gains from trade are large, a loan issuer is tempted ex-post to sell a large portion of its cashflows, and lower retention reduces incentives to screen loans. Second, the presence of adverse selection in secondary markets creates informational rents for issuers holding low quality loans, reducing the value of loan screening. This suggests that incentives for loan screening not only depend on the portion of loans retained by issuers, but also on how the market prices different securities. Turning to financial regulation, I characterize the optimal mechanism and show that it can be implemented with a simple tax scheme. This paper, therefore, contributes to the recent debate on how to regulate securitization. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3248&r=mfd |
| By: | Benos, Evangelos (Bank of England); Brugler, James (University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics); Hjalmarsson , Erik (University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics); Zikes , Filip (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Using unique transactions data for individual high-frequency trading (HFT) firms in the UK equity market, we examine if the trading activity of individual HFT firms is contemporaneously and dynamically correlated with each other, and what impact this has on price efficiency. We find that HFT order flow exhibits significantly higher commonality than the order flow of a control group of investment banks, both within and across stocks. However, intraday HFT order flow commonality is associated with a permanent price impact, suggesting that commonality in HFT activity is information-based and so does not generally contribute to undue price pressure and price dislocations. |
| Keywords: | High-frequency trading; correlated trading strategies; price discovery |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2015–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0523&r=mfd |
| By: | Bernstein, Shai (Stanford University); Korteweg, Arthur (Stanford University); Laws, Kevin (AngelList, LLC) |
| Abstract: | Which start-up characteristics are most important to investors in early-stage firms? This paper uses a randomized field experiment involving 4,500 active, early stage investors. The experiment is implemented by AngelList, an online platform that matches investors with start-ups seeking capital. The experiment randomizes investors' information sets on start-up characteristics through the use of nearly 17,000 emails. The average investor responds strongly to information about the founding team, but not to information about either firm traction or existing lead investors. This is in contrast to the least experienced investors, who respond to all categories of information. Our results suggest that information about human assets is causally important for the funding of early-stage firms. |
| JEL: | D23 G32 L26 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3006&r=mfd |
| By: | Callander, Steven (Stanford University); Matouschek, Niko (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | An emergent theme in the study of organizations is the broad differences in managerial practice and performance across firms. We develop an explanation for these phenomena that turns on the complexity of the environments that firms operate in. We construct a model that formally captures the difficulty of the manager's problem and show how managers search for good managerial practices by combining theoretical knowledge with practical experience, learning as they go. In this setting the evolution of firms is path dependent, marked by numerous failures, successes, and reversals. Nevertheless, patterns emerge. We show in particular how initial differences in performance persist and grow in expectation over time. We then apply the model to several long-standing questions in the study of organizations, exploring how imitation and coordination interact with the difficulty of the manager's problem and impact the performance of firms. We also apply the model to the growth and development of nations, showing how the performance dynamics that emerge resonate with historical experience. |
| JEL: | D21 D83 L25 M10 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3258&r=mfd |
| By: | Nuno Ornelas Martins (Centro de Estudos em Gestão e Economia da Universidade Católica Portuguesa) |
| Abstract: | This article addresses the origins of the term “neoclassical” economics, and the subsequent use of the term. It is argued that the present use of the term “neoclassical” economics is different from its original meaning when it was first introduced by Thorstein Veblen, who used it to denote a methodological inconsistency between vision and method, as Tony Lawson argues. I also argue here that the original meaning of the term, and its present use, are both contradictory with the original meaning of “classical political economy”. In fact, if we follow the original meaning of the term “classical political economy”, as a surplus approach concerned with the reproduction and distribution of the economic surplus, we find that many of those who are critical of “neoclassical economics” are actually in line with the classical perspective, to the extent that they also develop a surplus approach. |
| Keywords: | Classical, Neoclassical, closed system, surplus, marginalism |
| JEL: | B41 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cap:wpaper:012015&r=mfd |
| By: | Massa, Massimo; Schmidt, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We investigate the pricing implications of the parallel trading of loans and bonds of the same firm. We show that loan, by making lenders share sensitive information about the borrower with the loan market participants, lower the information advantage of the asset managers affiliated to the lender who respond by reducing their stake in the bonds of the firm whose loans are sold, independently of considerations about the future firm value. This reduces information asymmetry in the bond market and improves its liquidity. This provides the first evidence of a direct informational link between the loan and bond secondary markets. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Bonds; Information Asymmetry; Loan Trading |
| JEL: | G14 G21 G22 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10446&r=mfd |
| By: | Stefano Battiston; Marco D'Errico; Stefano Gurciullo; Guido Caldarelli |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel stress-test framework to monitor systemic risk in financial systems. The modular structure of the framework allows to accommodate for a variety of shock scenarios, methods to estimate interbank exposures and mechanisms of distress propagation. The main features are as follows. First, the framework allows to estimate and disentangle not only first-round effects (i.e. shock on external assets) and second-round effects (i.e. distress induced in the interbank network), but also third-round effects induced by possible fire sales. Second, it allows to monitor at the same time the impact of shocks on individual or groups of financial institutions as well as their vulnerability to shocks on counterparties or certain asset classes. Third, it includes estimates for loss distributions, thus combining network effects with familiar risk measures such as VaR and CVaR. Fourth, in order to perform robustness analyses and cope with incomplete data, the framework features a module for the generation of sets of networks of interbank exposures that are coherent with the total lending and borrowing of each bank. As an illustration, we carry out a stress-test exercise on a dataset of listed European banks over the years 2008-2013. We find that second-round and third-round effects dominate first-round effects, therefore suggesting that most current stress-test frameworks might lead to a severe underestimation of systemic risk. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1503.00621&r=mfd |
| By: | Ona Duarte Venslauskas; John J. García |
| Abstract: | This paper has two important goals. The first one is to build a Cournot model that illustrate the strategic behavior of the leader energy generators of the Colombian energy market, using the spot price as a strategic variable to estimate the optimal quantities of the short term energy market. The second goal is to use the quantities estimated to build industrial organizational variables, and with them estimate the spot price using VAR models, that allow an impulse response analysis. A daily series is used for the estimation, which it goes from June of 2010 until November of the same year. The results showed that the storage capacity of the hydraulic companies give them a higher strategic behavior that thermal companies when the demand level is low, but the opposite happens when the demand level is high. It was found that a random shock over the residual demand of the oligopoly and the concentration ratio of the market structure, are reflected in a fluctuated behavior of the spot energy price, this effect can be read as a reaction of the companies to the new circumstances of the market condition. ****** El artículo tiene dos principales objetivos. El primero es construir un modelo de Cournot que simule el comportamiento estratégico de las empresas generadoras líderes del mercado eléctrico colombiano, usando el Precio Marginal del Sistema (PMS) como variable estratégica para determinar las cantidades optimas a ofertar en el mercado spot. El segundo es usar las cantidades estimadas con el modelo de Cournot para construir variables de organización industrial (Índice de Demanda Residual y el Índice de Herfindahl e Hirschman) y con ellas estimar modelos vectoriales autorregresivos (VAR) que permitan estimar el PMS y hacer análisis de impulso respuesta. Los modelos se estiman para la serie diaria desde junio del 2010 hasta noviembre del mismo año. Los resultados muestran que la capacidad de almacenamiento de las empresas hidráulicas permite un mayor comportamiento estratégico que el de una empresa térmica cuando la demanda es baja, mientras que las térmicas son más estratégicas cuando la demanda es alta dado que los recursos de generación hidráulica se ven reducidos. Además se encuentra que los choques sobre los cambios en la capacidad de maniobra del oligopolio y en la concentración del mercado, se reflejan en un comportamiento fluctuante sobre el crecimiento del PMS, lo que se puede interpretar como una reacción de la estrategia de las empresas ante un cambio en las circunstancias de organización del mercado. |
| Keywords: | Modelo de Cournot; Precio Marginal del Sistema; mercado eléctrico; Índice dedemanda residual; Índice de Herfindahl - Hirschman; modelo de vectores autorregrasivos - VAR |
| JEL: | D43 L11 L13 |
| Date: | 2014–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:012582&r=mfd |
| By: | Ronald B. Davies (University College Dublin); Stephan Klasen (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | Using data from 1988 to 2007, we examine to what extent bilateral aid flows of an individual donor to a country depend on aid flows from all other bilateral and multilateral donors to that country in that year. We thereby want to assess to what extent donor coordination, free-riding, selectivity, specialization, and common donor motivations drive bilateral aid allocation as these determinants would point to different dependence structures. Using approaches from spatial econometrics and controlling for endogeneity, we find that other bilateral flows lead to a significant increase in aid flows from a particular donor. The effects are particularly pronounced for recipients in Africa and the Middle East and so-called donor ‘orphans’ who seem to be collectively shunned by bilateral aid donors. The positive dependence also seems to be related to donors following the lead of the largest donors. Over time, the positive dependence has become smaller. Overall the results suggest that donor coordination and free-riding are quantitatively less important than common donor interests and selectivity. |
| Keywords: | aid; donor coordination; aid darlings; aid orphans |
| JEL: | F35 F42 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:168&r=mfd |
| By: | Berk, Jonathan B. (Stanford University); van Binsbergen, Jules H. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Using the dollar-value a mutual fund manager adds as the measure of skill, we find that not only does skill exist (the average mutual fund manager adds about $2 million per year), but this skill is persistent, as far out as 10 years. We further document that investors recognize this skill and reward it by investing more capital with skilled managers. Higher skilled managers are paid more and there is a strong positive correlation between current managerial compensation and future performance. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3131&r=mfd |
| By: | Stewart, Fraser; Kragt, Marit; Gibson, Fiona |
| Abstract: | Foreign investment can provide a flow of capital into Australian agriculture and has played an important role meeting the shortfalls in domestic savings throughout Australia’s history. Despite the political and media attention on foreign investment in agriculture, there is little knowledge about stakeholders’ perceptions of foreign investment in their community. This study assesses the opinions of farmers about foreign investment in the Wheatbelt. We investigate the economic, social and environmental opportunities and challenges associated with foreign investment. Interviews with agricultural experts identified three main operating structures of foreign investment: own-operate, own-lease and own-sharefarm. Semi-structured interviews with farmers in the WA Wheatbelt revealed that farmers generally have positive attitudes towards foreign investment, although there were clear advantages and disadvantages associated with the different operating structures. Overall, foreign investment was found to offer opportunities for capital injection, natural resource management, employment and community support in the Wheatbelt. This study provides evidence that, contrary to much speculation in the media, foreign investment is not having a detrimental effect on farmers and rural communities in the study locations. |
| Keywords: | farming systems, foreign investment, farmer attitudes, Australian wheatbelt, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Q13, Q15, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:198540&r=mfd |
| By: | Gornall, Will (Stanford University); Strebulaev, Ilya A. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of the joint capital structure decisions of banks and their borrowers. Strikingly high bank leverage emerges naturally from the interplay between two sets of forces. First, seniority and diversification reduce bank asset volatility by an order of magnitude relative to that of their borrowers. Second, previously unstudied supply chain effects mean that highly levered financial intermediaries can offer the lowest interest rates. Low asset volatility enables banks to take on high leverage safely; supply chain effects compel them to do so. Firms with low leverage also arise naturally, as borrowers internalize the systematic risk costs they impose on their lenders. Because risk assessment techniques from the Basel framework underlie our model, we can quantify the impact capital regulation and other government interventions have on leverage and fragility. Deposit insurance and the expectation of government bailouts increase not only bank risk taking, but also borrower risk taking. Capital regulation lowers bank leverage but can lead to compensating increases in the leverage of borrowers, which can paradoxically lead to riskier banks. Doubling current capital requirements would reduce the default risk of banks exposed to high moral hazard by up to 90%, with only a small increase in bank interest rates. |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3102&r=mfd |
| By: | Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin, Ingrid Peignier, Minh Hoang Bui |
| Abstract: | <p><b>Objectif du guide</b> Les infrastructures municipales sont indissociables de la gestion d’une ville et des services de proximité offerts aux citoyens. Ainsi, le renouvellement des infrastructures actuelles et le développement de nouvelles infrastructures amènent les élus à faire des choix, à prioriser certains projets au détriment d’autres ce qui pourraient impacter les qualités des services, la capacité financière de la Ville et les citoyens. Au cÅ“ur de ce processus décisionnel, l’élu demeure imputable des décisions et actions de sa municipalité.<br> C’est pourquoi l’élu municipal doit disposer de tous les nécessaires afin de faciliter sa prise de décision et maximiser les investissements de sa municipalité. Le présent guide s’adresse d’abord aux élus municipaux et a pour mandat d’outiller ceux-ci à mieux identifier, anticiper et gérer les risques lors d’un projet d’infrastructure. Spécifiquement, l’objectif de ce guide est de vous fournir : <ul><li> Un registre des risques reliés à la gestion des projets d’infrastructures municipales au Québec;</li></ul> <ul><li> Un benchmarking des pratiques municipales qui ont fait leurs preuves dans des municipalités du Québec;</li></ul> <ul><li> Des outils pour mieux identifier, anticiper et gérer les risques lors d’un projet d’infrastructure municipale.</li></ul>Ce document est confidentiel. Pour toute demande d'information, veuillez contacter Ingrid Peignier à ingrid.peignier@cirano.qc.ca <br> |
| Date: | 2015–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2014rp-14&r=mfd |
| By: | Thierry Foucault (HEC, Paris); Sophie Moinas (TSE (Toulouse University)); Bruno Biais (Université de Toulouse 1 Capitole) |
| Abstract: | High-speed market connections and information processing improve financial institutions' ability to seize trading opportunities, which raises gains from trade. They also enable fast traders to process information before slow traders, which generates adverse selection. We first analyze trading equilibria for a given level of investment in fast-trading technology and then endogenize this level. Investments can be strategic substitutes or complements. In the latter case, investment waves can arise, where institutions invest in fast-trading technologies just to keep up with the others. When some traders become fast, it increases adverse selection costs for all, i.e., it generates negative externalities. Therefore equilibrium investment can exceed its welfare maximizing counterpart. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1207&r=mfd |
| By: | Romina Boarini; Marcos Díaz |
| Abstract: | Recent research suggests that younger generations are less likely to be engaged in formal political participation than older ones. However, there is little evidence on the trends for non-formal participation (e.g. signing petitions, demonstrations, etc.) This paper tries to fill a gap in this field by looking at the evolution of extra-parliamentary participation in politics through various measures of civic and political engagement, based on data from six waves of the European Social Survey. The paper confirms that younger generations in European countries participate less in politics through formal activities. A similar trend is observed for extra-parliamentary participation, although this trend is less clear-cut. The results also show that the financial crisis of 2007-2009 witnessed a halt in the downward trend of period effects in the various forms of political participation, followed by the increase of period effects on both formal and extra-parliamentary political participation in the subsequent years (2011-2012.) |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2015/2-en&r=mfd |
| By: | Luca Di Gialleonardo (Mefop, Rome, Italy); Mauro Marè (Tuscia University, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The scope of the supplementary pension funds is to provide workers with a satisfactory standard of living at retirement. An efficient and affordable system of pension funds is therefore an important factor to realize the workers’ aims of maximizing the value of their pension wealth. A rationalization of the industry structure, leading to the creation of bigger pension funds, that should be better able to take advantage of economies of scale, might contain the costs sustained by participants. In this paper, and for the first time (to the best of our knowledge), we attempt to carry out an econometric study of the principal factors which determine the costs level and the efficiency of Italian pension funds. Based on an original dataset of Italian closed pension funds in the 2007-2013 period, this work runs a panel estimate of the impact of dimension (the number of participants) on administrative costs. Our results highlight the existence of important overall economies of scale and that in those funds characterized by the outsourcing of some activities, the administrative costs result smaller. We adopt the same dataset also for the open pension funds, in order to evaluate the link between financial costs and the sum of resources under management. The estimates do not confirm the existence of particular economies of scale, probably due to the distinctive traits of the complementary pension funds industry in Italy. The commission fees of the financial management of pension funds, in particular of closed type, are much lower than those relative to other financial services and also to other types of foreign pension funds. This situation, fuelled by competition among financial managers, has gone on for some time, thus further limiting the ways in which savings can be made through an increase in the volume of the assets managed. |
| Keywords: | social security, pension funds, efficiency |
| JEL: | H55 G23 G14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:21&r=mfd |
| By: | Roy, Chandan; Roy Mukherjee, Sanchari |
| Abstract: | Sericulture, being low capital intensive with low gestation period and assured returns, suits a vast marginal class including landless farmers and low-skilled artisans, whose voices are not heard in the so called fast growing world. This paper will focus on some pertinent regional issues of land productivity and technical efficiency of these marginal classes and will measure their plausible impact on income generation from the artisanal silk sector of West Bengal. Analysing the nation wide data set, the paper finds the area of mulberry cultivation and price of reeling cocoons as significant influencing variables. However, primary survey on Malda district of West Bengal exposes that mandays creation for the this avocation and technical efficiency are two significant factors which are significantly enhancing the income flow produced by the sericulture household while cost of implants has a serious detrimental impact on revenue generation by the silk artisans in West Bengal. |
| Keywords: | Sericulture, Income generation, Raw-Silk, Poverty, Income-Inequality, Migration |
| JEL: | Q12 Q15 R20 R30 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62423&r=mfd |
| By: | Mohan Pyari Maharjan (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Tomoki Sekiguchi (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the human resource (HR) practices of Japanese companies operating in India. We studied 10 Japanese companies based on 17 interviews. The paper elaborates five major HR practices and explains why Japanese companies have established a specific set of HR practices in India. It then provides the details on how these HR practices have been originated, adjusted and integrated. The findings suggest less-focused training and developmental programs, and identical performance appraisal systems across all companies. Similar socio-cultural characteristics such as seniority-concerned and teamwork-orientation have facilitated the adoption of Japanese way of management in India. |
| Keywords: | Japanese subsidiaries; human resource management; India; transfer of management practices; local adaptation |
| JEL: | M10 M12 M16 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1502&r=mfd |
| By: | Leonardo Martinez (International Monetary Fund); Juan Hatchondo (Indiana University); Burhanettin Kuruscu (University of Toronto); Bulent Guler (Indiana University - Bloomington) |
| Abstract: | We extend the standard Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) sovereign default model to study bailout policies. In our setup a country that concentrates a significant fraction of bond holders decide on a period by period basis whether to bailout a debtor government. The combination of bailout policies and decentralized lending decisions give rise to a pecuniary externality. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1278&r=mfd |
| By: | Leonardo Fabio Morales; Lina Cardona-Sosa |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo evaluamos como la calidad del vecindario afecta resultados laborales de una muestra aleatoria de individuos en la ciudad de Medellín. El trabajo profundiza el análisis para el caso de las mujeres, cuyo estatus en el mercado laboral (participación, horas laboradas y probabilidad de empleo) podría verse afectado en mayor medida por cambios en las características de sus vecindarios. La calidad del vecindario es definida a través del siguiente conjunto de características: la disponibilidad de transporte público masivo, la densidad de actividad económica, la disponibilidad de cuidado infantil público y los niveles de criminalidad. La metodología empírica se basa en la estimación de modelos lineales de oferta, de empleo y de participación. Los efectos de interés están sujetos a sesgo de selección dada la naturaleza endógena de la decisión de localización residencial, razón por la cual, se usa una metodología que corrige por la posible autoselección de las mujeres en sus respectivos vecindarios con un procedimiento de dos etapas. Los resultados sugieren la existencia de una relación entre la calidad del vecindario y las variables del mercado laboral, los cuales difieren por ingreso medio del barrio y estado civil del individuo. En particular, se encuentra que las mujeres ven favorecidas su participación laboral en presencia de una mayor actividad económica en el barrio en el que habitan, siendo las madres casadas, quienes presentan una mayor probabilidad de emplearse en presencia de centros de cuidado infantil. Los homicidios por su parte, disminuyen la empleabilidad de los hombres. |
| Keywords: | Oferta laboral, análisis urbano, demanda por localización, economía de género |
| JEL: | J01 J22 O18 R21 J16 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:012588&r=mfd |
| By: | Ou Yang (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Xueyan Zhao (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University); Preety Srivastava (School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines evidence from Australia on the factors associated with binge drinking and several alcohol-related antisocial and unlawful behaviours. In particular, to quantify the negative externalities of excessive alcohol consumption by product type, our primary focus is the link with eleven types of alcoholic beverages. We also examine the role of binge drinking in increasing the likelihood for engaging in these antisocial and unlawful behaviours. We use individual-level data from a national representative survey and a multivariate probit model that allows unobservable factors for all negative behaviours to be correlated. Potential misclassification in the self-reported consumption data is accounted for. Results provide valuable evidence for more effective alcohol taxation as a tool for correcting differentiated negative externalities by beverage type. |
| Keywords: | Binge drinking, negative externalities, alcohol taxation, multivariate probit, misclassification |
| JEL: | C3 I1 K3 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2015n03&r=mfd |
| By: | Sargsyan, Arman; Tatybekov, B; Soboleva, I; Kubishin, E; Baskakova, M |
| Abstract: | Analyzes the main reasons of informal employment at SMEs and looks for decisions to stimulate formal employment in the CIS countries. |
| Keywords: | employment, informal employment, informal economy, role of ILO, international labour standards, employment policy, social protection, CIS countries, emploi, emploi informel, économie informelle, rôle de l'OIT, normes internationales du travail, politique de l'emploi, protection sociale, pays CEI, empleo, empleo informal, economía informal, papel de la OIT, normas internacionales del trabajo, política de empleo, protección social, países CEI |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:485091&r=mfd |
| By: | Berrospide, Jose M. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Meisenzahl, Ralf R. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | Do firms use credit line drawdowns to finance investment? Using a unique dataset of 467 COMPUSTAT firms with credit lines, we study the purpose of drawdowns during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Our data show that credit line drawdowns had already increased in 2007, precisely when disruptions in bank funding markets began to squeeze aggregate liquidity. Consistent with theory, our results confirm that firms use drawdowns to sustain investment after an idiosyncratic liquidity shock. Using an instrumental variable approach based on institutional features of credit line contracts, we find that a one standard deviation increase in credit line drawdown is associated with an increase of 9 percent in average capital expenditures. Low aggregate liquidity amplifies this effect significantly. During the financial crisis, the effect of drawdowns on investment increased to 16 percent. The effect was even larger for smaller and financially constrained firms. We find only limited evidence, mostly for large and investment grade firms, that drawdowns were used to boost (precautionary) cash holdings during the crisis. |
| Keywords: | Credit Lines; Financial Crisis; Investment; Liquidity Management |
| JEL: | E22 G01 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2015–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2015-07&r=mfd |
| By: | Dino Gerardi; Lucas Maestri |
| Abstract: | We study dynamic contracting with adverse selection and limited commitment. A firm (the principal) and a worker (the agent) interact for potentially infinitely many periods. The worker is privately informed about his productivity and the firm can only commit to short-term contracts. The ratchet effect is in place since the firm has the incentive to change the terms of trade and offer more demanding contracts when it learns that the worker is highly productive. As the parties become arbitrarily patient, the equilibrium allocation takes one of two forms. If the prior probability of the worker being productive is low, the firm offers a pooling contract and no information is ever revealed. In contrast, if this prior probability is high, the firm fires the unproductive worker at the very beginning of the relationship. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Contracting; Limited Commitment; Ratchet Effect. |
| JEL: | D80 D82 D86 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:401&r=mfd |
| By: | Sebastian Panthöfer |
| Abstract: | This paper studies risk selection between public and private health insurance when some individuals can purchase private insurance by opting out of otherwise mandatory public insurance. Using a theoretical model, I show that public insurance is adversely selected when insurers and insureds are symmetrically informed about health-related risks, and that selection can be of any type (advantageous or adverse) when insureds have private information about health risks. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, I find that: (1) public insurance is adversely selected under the German public health insurance with opt-out scheme, (2) individuals adversely select public insurance based on self-assessed health and advantageously select public insurance based on risk aversion, and (3) there is evidence of asymmetric information. |
| Keywords: | Public and private health insurance, Risk selection, Asymmetric information |
| JEL: | D82 H51 I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:we1504&r=mfd |
| By: | Duffie, Darrell (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | A central counterparty (CCP) is a financial market utility that lowers counterparty default risk on specified financial contracts by acting as a buyer to every seller, and as a seller to every buyer. When at risk of failure, a CCP could be forced into a normal insolvency process such as bankruptcy, or an administrative failure resolution process. This chapter reviews some alternative approaches to the design of insolvency and failure resolution regimes for CCPs. I focus on the allocation of losses and the question of whether and how to provide for continuity of clearing services. I discuss how one might adapt to CCPs some of the failure resolution approaches currently being designed for other forms of systemically important financial institutions. A key policy question is when to interrupt a contractually based CCP default management process with an overriding failure resolution process. |
| JEL: | G20 G28 G33 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3256&r=mfd |
| By: | Alla Semenova; L. Randall Wray |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the rise of money and class society in ancient Greece, drawing historical and theoretical parallels to the case of ancient Egypt. In doing so, the paper examines the historical applicability of the chartalist and metallist theories of money. It will be shown that the origins and the evolution of money were closely intertwined with the rise and consolidation of class society and inequality. Money, class society, and inequality came into being simultaneously, so it seems, mutually reinforcing the development of one another. Rather than a medium of exchange in commerce, money emerged as an "egalitarian token" at the time when the substance of social relations was undergoing a fundamental transformation from egalitarian to class societies. In this context, money served to preserve the façade of social and economic harmony and equality, while inequality was growing and solidifying. Rather than "invented" by private traders, money was first issued by ancient Greek states and proto-states as they aimed to establish and consolidate their political and economic power. Rather than a medium of exchange in commerce, money first served as a "means of recompense" administered by the Greek city-states as they strived to implement the civic conception of social justice. While the origins of money are to be found in the origins of inequality, a well-functioning democratic society has the power to subvert the inequality-inducing characteristic of money via the use of money for public purpose, following the principles of Modern Money Theory (MMT). When used according to the principles of MMT, the inequality-inducing characteristic of money could be undermined, while the current trends in rising income and wealth disparities could be contained and reversed. |
| Keywords: | Nature of Money; Chartalism; Metallism; Origins of Money; Origins of Coinage; Inequality; Class; Ideology; Religious Ideology; State Formation; State Theory of Money; Modern Money Theory |
| JEL: | B5 B25 B41 E11 E12 E42 E52 E62 E63 H6 N1 N2 P1 P4 P5 Z1 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_832&r=mfd |
| By: | Leonardo Fabio Morales; Lina Cardona-Sosa |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo evaluamos como la calidad del vecindario afecta resultados laborales de una muestra aleatoria de individuos en la ciudad de Medellín. El trabajo profundiza el análisis para el caso de las mujeres, cuyo estatus en el mercado laboral (participación, horas laboradas y probabilidad de empleo) podría verse afectado en mayor medida por cambios en las características de sus vecindarios. La calidad del vecindario es definida a través del siguiente conjunto de características: la disponibilidad de transporte público masivo, la densidad de actividad económica, la disponibilidad de cuidado infantil público y los niveles de criminalidad. La metodología empírica se basa en la estimación de modelos lineales de oferta, de empleo y de participación. Los efectos de interés están sujetos a sesgo de selección dada la naturaleza endógena de la decisión de localización residencial, razón por la cual, se usa una metodología que corrige por la posible autoselección de las mujeres en sus respectivos vecindarios con un procedimiento de dos etapas. Los resultados sugieren la existencia de una relación entre la calidad del vecindario y las variables del mercado laboral, los cuales difieren por ingreso medio del barrio y estado civil del individuo. En particular, se encuentra que las mujeres ven favorecidas su participación laboral en presencia de una mayor actividad económica en el barrio en el que habitan, siendo las madres casadas, quienes presentan una mayor probabilidad de emplearse en presencia de centros de cuidado infantil. Los homicidios por su parte, disminuyen la empleabilidad de los hombres. Classification JEL: J01, J22, O18, R21, J16 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:868&r=mfd |
| By: | Guntram B. Wolff; André Sapir |
| Abstract: | The Issue Reform of the governance of the euro area is being held back by disagreement on what is at the root of the euro areaâ??s woes. Pre-crisis, the euro area suffered from the built-up of financial imbalances, price and wage divergence and an insufficient focus on debt sustainability. During the crisis, the main problems were slow resolution of banking problems, an inadequate fiscal policy stance in 2011-13 for the area as a whole, insufficient domestic demand in surplus countries and slow progress with structural reforms to overcome past divergences. Policy Challenge Euro-area governance needs to move beyond the improvements brought about by banking union and should establish institutions to prevent divergences of wages from productivity. We propose the creation of a European Competitiveness Council composed of national competitiveness councils, and the creation of a Eurosystem of Fiscal Policy (EFP) with two goals: fiscal debt sustainability and an adequate area-wide fiscal position. The EFP should have the right in exceptional circumstances to declare national deficits unlawful and to be able to force parliaments to borrow more so that the euro-area fiscal stance is appropriate. A euro-area chamber of the European Parliament would have to approve such decisions. No additional risk-sharing would be introduced. In the short term, domestic demand needs to be increased in surplus countries, while in deficit countries, structural reform needs to reduce past divergences. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:870&r=mfd |
| By: | Michael, Bryane; Falzon, Joseph; Shamdasani, Ajay |
| Abstract: | Do financial regulation advisors help their clients become more profitable? In this paper, we present a model where financial service firms may add to their own compliance teams or hire outside compliance advisors. We derive the conditions under which a financial services firm will want to hire a compliance services company, and show how much money they should spend. Financial services firms in competitive locations like Hong Kong and Singapore will particularly benefit (at least in the short run) from their services. We also show that their advice may lead to an embarrass de riches – whereby the lower compliance costs and higher profit advantages they confer may lead to more regulation. Regulators may furthermore tighten regulation – with the expectation that financial service firms will adapt somehow. We present a fresh perspective on the Menon Hypothesis, deriving conditions under which financial regulations help the competitiveness of an international financial centre. We provide five potential policy responses for dealing with ever ratcheting financial regulations. |
| Keywords: | compliance,financial law,compliance capacity,optimal regulation |
| JEL: | G24 K40 |
| Date: | 2015–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:107400&r=mfd |
| By: | Dessi, Roberta; Yin, Nina |
| Abstract: | This paper explores a new role for venture capitalists, as knowledge intermediaries. A venture capital investor can communicate valuable knowledge to an entrepreneur, facilitating innovation. The venture capitalist can also communicate the entrepreneur's innovative knowledge to other portfolio companies. We study the costs and benefits of these two forms of knowledge transfer, and their implications for investment, innovation, and product market competition. The model also sheds light on the choice between venture capital and other forms of finance, and the determinants of the decision to seek patent protection for innovations. Our analysis provides a rationale for the use of contingencies (specifically, patent approval) in VC contracts documented by Kaplan and Stromberg (2003), and for recent evidence on patterns of syndication among venture capitalists. |
| Keywords: | venture capital, knowledge intermediaries, contracts, innovation, competition, patents. |
| JEL: | D82 D86 G24 L22 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:29009&r=mfd |
| By: | Tetsugen Haruyama (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | The paper develops a patent race model of firms which differ in R&D productivity. It is demon-strated that R&D subsidies generate the cleansing effect where relatively lower productivity firms drop out of the race and innovation accelerates due to expanded R&D investment by the remaining firms and new entrants with higher productivity than those that exit. |
| Keywords: | Patent race, R&D, industrial policy, cleansing effect |
| JEL: | L10 L20 L52 O32 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1425&r=mfd |
| By: | Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University of London); Gabor Pinter (Bank of England); Konstantinos Theodoridis (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the performance of a variety of structural VAR models in estimating the impact of credit supply shocks. Using a Monte-Carlo experiment, we show that identification based on sign and quantity restrictions and via external instruments is effective in recovering the underlying shock. In contrast, identification based on recursive schemes and heteroscedasticity suffer from a number of biases. When applied to US data, the estimates from the best performing VAR models indicate, on average, that credit supply shocks that raise spreads by 10 basis points reduce GDP growth and inflation by 1% after one year. These shocks were important during the Great Recession, accounting for about half the decline in GDP growth. |
| Keywords: | Credit supply shocks, Proxy SVAR, Sign restrictions, Identification via heteroscedasticity, DSGE models |
| JEL: | C15 C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp739&r=mfd |
| By: | Admati, Anat (Stanford University); Hellwig, Martin (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) |
| Abstract: | The debate on banking regulation has been dominated by flawed and misleading claims. The title of our book The Bankers New Clothes: What's Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It (Princeton University Press, 2013, see bankersnewclothes.com) refers to flawed claims about banking and banking regulation, and the book discusses and debunks many of them. Flawed claims are still made in the policy debate, particularly in the context of proposals that banks be funded with more equity and rely less on borrowing than current or new regulations would allow. Those who make the flawed claims do so without addressing our arguments, even when they comment on the book or on our earlier writings. Because the financial system continues to be dangerous and distorted, however, flawed claims must not win the policy debate. This document provides a brief account of claims that we have come across since the book was published in February, 2013. We provide brief responses, with references to more detailed discussions in the book and elsewhere. Nothing that we heard or read changes our conclusions or our strong policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3032&r=mfd |
| By: | Lence, Sergio H. |
| Abstract: | The historical behavior of farmland prices, rental rates, and rates of return are examined by treating farmland as an asset with an infinitely long life. It is found that high (low) farmland prices relative to rents have historically precededextended periods of low (high) net rates of return, rather than greater (smaller) growth in rents. Our analysis shows that this attribute is shared with stocks and housing, and the financial literature provides ample evidence that other assetsfeature it as well. The long-run relationship linking farmland prices, rents, and rates of return is analyzed. Based on this relationship, we conclude that recent trends are unlikely to be sustainable. The study explores the expected paths thatfarmland prices and rates of return might follow if they were to eventually conform to the average values observed in the historical sample, and concludes with a discussion of the policy implications. Recommendations for policy makers include close monitoring of farmland lending practices and institutions to allow early identification of potential problems, and identifying in advance appropriate interventions in case recent farmland market trends were to suddenly change. |
| Keywords: | farmland; Rate of return; price; rents |
| JEL: | Q14 |
| Date: | 2014–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:38979&r=mfd |
| By: | Hirsch, Alexander V. (CA Institute of Technology); Shotts, Kenneth W. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze a model of policymaking in which only one actor, e.g., a bureaucratic agency or a well-funded interest group, has the capacity to develop high-quality policy proposals. By virtue of her skills, this actor has an effective monopoly on policy development and thus can craft proposals that are good for herself but provide few benefits to decisionmakers who enact policies. We then examine institutional responses that decisionmakers can use to induce a policy-development monopolist to develop more-appealing proposals: (i) establishing in-house policy development capacity, (ii) delegating authority to an agent who counterbalances the monopolist's preferences, and (iii) fostering competition by policy entrepreneurs with different preferences. We apply our model to a diverse set of contexts, including bureaucratic policymaking in Japan, lobbying in term-limited state legislatures, regulation of banking and financial services, and administrative procedures for rulemaking in U.S. federal bureaucracies. |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3137&r=mfd |
| By: | Etienne Lalé |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of front-loading the payment of unemployment benefits in an equilibrium matching framework with precautionary savings. Front-loading the benefit system trades off fewer means to smooth consumption at long unemployment durations for improved insurance upon job loss. In the United States where jobless spells are typically frequent but short, we find that front-loading the benefit system yields significant welfare gains for new benefit recipients. The gains are lower in the aggregate, but are not completely offset by general equilibrium effects. Comparison with a search effort model shows that the welfare figures are not specific to matching frictions. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment Insurance, Precautionary Savings, Labor-Market Frictions, Welfare Effect. |
| JEL: | E21 I38 J63 J65 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:15/651&r=mfd |
| By: | Koen van der Veer |
| Abstract: | Private trade credit insurance - covering the risk of non-payment - plays an important role in facilitating domestic and international trade, especially within Europe. Due to lack of data, however, very little is known about the influence of shocks on the market for private trade credit insurance. This paper studies the influence of claims on the availability and price of export credit insurance, using unique bilateral country- level data covering worldwide insurance underwriting by a global trade credit insurer from 1992 to 2006. Country-pair and time-varying country fixed effects allow me to control for bilateral heterogeneity and country-specific insurance supply-and-demand shocks in both exporting and destination countries. In doing so, I find that a doubling of claims results, on average, in a decline in the share of bilateral exports insured by about 11% and rise in premium level by about 4%. These claims effects increase when the insurer makes a loss and further rise with the size of the loss. I also find evidence indicating that the global trade credit insurer transmits extreme losses across countries by reducing its supply of export credit insurance. Overall, these results help our understanding of potential trade finance constraints in times of crisis, such as during the 2008-09 global trade collapse. |
| Keywords: | trade credit insurance; export credit insurance; claims; international trade |
| JEL: | F14 G01 G22 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:462&r=mfd |
| By: | Casey, Katherine E. (Stanford University); Glennerster, Rachel (?); Bidwell, Kelly (?) |
| Abstract: | This project explores whether giving voters information about candidates and policy facilitates more informed voting and greater electoral accountability. In the information poor environment of Sierra Leone, we use a set of randomized experiments to estimate the impacts of structured debates between Parliamentary candidates on voter knowledge and behavior. We find evidence for strong positive impacts on general political knowledge, knowledge of candidate qualifications and policy stances; improved alignment between the policy preferences of voters and their selected candidate; greater voter openness to candidates from all parties; and increased vote shares for the candidate who performed the best during the debates. We further document an endogenous response by candidates, who increased their campaign effort in communities where videotapes of the debates were screened in public gatherings. A complementary series of treatment arms administered at the individual level unpacks the different types of information delivered by the debates, and finds evidence that voters respond to both candidate charisma and "hard facts" about policy stances and professional qualification. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3066&r=mfd |
| By: | Jensen, Henrik; Ravn, Søren Hove; Santoro, Emiliano |
| Abstract: | In the last decades, capital markets across the industrialized world have undergone massive deregulation, involving increases in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of households and firms. We study the business-cycle implications of this phenomenon in a dynamic general equilibrium model with multiple credit-constrained agents. Starting from low LTV ratios, a progressive relaxation of credit constraints leads to both higher macroeconomic volatility and stronger comovement between debt and real variables. This pattern reverses at LTV ratios not far from those currently observed in many advanced economies, since credit constraints become non-binding more often. As expansionary shocks may make credit constraints non-binding, while contractionary shocks cannot, recessions become deeper than expansions. The non-monotonic relationship between credit market conditions and macroeconomic fluctuations poses a serious challenge for regulatory and macroprudential policies. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; capital-market liberalization; capital-market regulation; occasionally non-binding contract constraints |
| JEL: | E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10462&r=mfd |
| By: | Marko Koethenbuerger (GETH Zurich and CESifo); Michael Stimmelmayr (ETH Zurich and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | There is ample evidence that internal capital markets incur efficiency costs for multinational enterprises (MNEs). This paper analyzes whether tax avoidance behaviour interacts with these costs and how policies of competing governments respond to it. We show that the interaction in itself may lead to profit taxes that are inefficiently high (low), provided the costs are attenuated (magnified) by higher profit taxes. Further, internal efficiency costs might render infrastructure provision inefficiently low. We also clarify the implications of the decision to set up an internal capital market and of external finance for the behaviour of competing governments. The results are consistent with empirical findings that are not inherently related to the notion of fiscal competition. |
| Keywords: | fiscal competition, multinational firms, internal efficiency costs, managerial behavior, corporate tax avoidance. |
| JEL: | H25 D21 F23 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1408&r=mfd |
| By: | Bea Cantillon; Diego Collado; Natascha Van Mechelen |
| Abstract: | Why is it that, in almost three decades and despite growth of income, employment and high levels of social spending, even the most developed welfare states in the world failed to improve minimum income protection for families with children? To what extent the erosion of minimum income protection for the working age population compared to median household incomes has been occasioned by exogenous changes either in median household incomes or in gross low wages? Or, has the erosion been associated with deliberate cutbacks of benefit levels? We focus on a limited set of vulnerable households with children, viz. working-aged couples and single parents who either are jobless or live on one low wage and use survey data (ECHP 1994-2001 and SILC 2005-2008 and 2012) and standard simulations of disposable incomes of typical households in order to address these questions. We find that in all EU’s most developed welfare states minimum income protection for work-poor households with children fall short compared to the poverty threshold (defined as 60% of equivalised median household income). Typically, in the decades before the crisis this shortfall has become increasingly bigger. In most countries with available data this was not associated with deliberate cuts in benefit levels for the poor: in general, net disposable incomes of families on social assistance evolved at a similar pace as the net income packages of corresponding families on low wages. Rather, the erosion of the minimum social floor appears to have been related to sinking gross low wages compared to median household incomes. This points at severe and increasing structural difficulties to reduce poverty. |
| Keywords: | poverty, social benefits, low wages |
| JEL: | I38 J32 J38 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:1501&r=mfd |
| By: | Juan Pablo Botero; John J. García; Ermilson Velásquez |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the effect of electricity generation reliability on the spot price of the electricity market in Colombia, a mechanism implemented in 2006 to encourage existing generators or new investors to increase the installed capacity in the wholesale energy market. We describe the performance of this mechanism in Colombia and analyze the behavior of some structural variables in the operation of this market, such as the ratio between the market demand and the actual availability, El Niño and La Niña, the reservoir level and some regulation measures. The spot price presents high volatility implying that the proper specification corresponds to a regression model with ARCH structure (Engle, 1982). Results show that the reliability charge is positive and statistically significant. Also El Niño has a positive impact on the spot price, due to the large hydraulic share of this market. ****** Este paper considera el efecto del cargo por confiabilidad sobre el precio spot de la energía eléctrica en Colombia, implementado en 2006 con el fin de incentivar a los generadores existentes o nuevos inversionistas para mejorar la confiabilidad de la prestación del servicio, lo que conduce a incrementar la capacidad instalada en el mercado de energía mayorista. Se describe el funcionamiento de este mecanismo en Colombia y analiza el comportamiento de algunas variables estructurales en el funcionamiento de este mercado, como la relación entre la demanda comercial y la disponibilidad real, el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña, el nivel de embalse y algunas medidas de carácter regulatorio. El precio spot presenta alta volatilidad haciendo que la especificación adecuada corresponda a un modelo de regresión con estructura ARCH (Engle, 1982). Los resultados obtenidos evidencian que el cargo por confiabilidad es estadísticamente significativo y positivo, es decir hace que el precio spot aumente. Además, El Niño presenta un impacto positivo sobre el precio spot, debido a la gran participación hidráulica de este mercado. |
| Keywords: | Cargo por confiabilidad; mercado de energía mayorista; preciospot; ARCH; Colombia |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L51 |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:012578&r=mfd |
| By: | Peter Maniloff (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Sul-Ki Lee (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines) |
| Abstract: | Food price shocks can have substantial welfare implications, particularly in the world's low income regions. A number of previous studies has shown that the United States ethanol mandate has increased average corn price levels. We provide suggestive evidence that the mandate has also increased corn price volatility. Identification relies upon a series of falsification tests. Our results suggest that the ethanol mandate has increased the likelihood of very high price levels by even more than previously thought. |
| Keywords: | Ethanol, biofuels, food price shocks, food security |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201501&r=mfd |
| By: | Gawlik, Remigiusz |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the possibilities of application of Analytic Network Process for enhancing the decision making of young Europeans. The purpose of the study is to examine whether ANP offers enough complexity for research purposes and application ease. The motivation for the study lies in the need of help and guidance exhibited by young Europeans in a European Union post – accession reality, where a variety of development opportunities is accompanied by huge costs to pay by an important percentage of the successful part of the society. The research method in question is the Analytic Network Process, some thoughts about Analytic Hierarchy Process and Artificial Neural Networks have been formulated as well. Main findings of the research point at potential possibilities of application of ANP for research purposes. At the same time some concerns about the optimality of this choice are being discussed. |
| Keywords: | Decision Making, Analytic Network Process, Young Europeans, European Union Enlargement |
| JEL: | D81 F15 I31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62442&r=mfd |
| By: | Erhan Bayraktar; Virginia R. Young |
| Abstract: | We determine the optimal strategy for investing in a Black-Scholes market in order to maximize the probability that wealth at death meets a bequest goal $b$. We, thereby, make more objective the goal of maximizing expected utility of death, first considered in a continuous-time framework by Merton (1969). Specifically, instead of requiring the individual to choose a utility function, we only require the individual to choose a bequest goal $b$. We learn that, for wealth lying between $0$ and $b$, the optimal investment strategy is {\it independent} of $b$, a surprising result. Therefore, if the individual were to revise her bequest goal, her investment strategy would not change if her wealth is less than the new goal. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1503.00961&r=mfd |
| By: | Sunar, Nur (University of NC); Plambeck, Erica (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | A state with climate policy may impose a tax on imported products for greenhouse gas emissions that occur in production and transportation to its border (a so-called border adjustment). A buyer may voluntarily commit to offset its upstream supply chain emissions, with similar effect. When a process yields co-products in fixed proportions, how should emissions from the process be allocated among the co-products? We address that question from the perspective of a border adjustment policy maker and buyer, in turn. Emissions and a buyer's profit can increase due to border adjustment, or because a buyer is required to use a higher allocation or pay a higher tax (offset price) per unit emissions. |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3177&r=mfd |
| By: | Naoto Jinji; Yoshihiro Mizoguchi |
| Abstract: | We examine the optimal rules of origin (ROO) in a free trade area/agreement (FTA). We incorporate compliance costs of the ROO into the model. In particular, compliance costs are higher for a firm located in a non-member country of the FTA than for a firm located in an FTA member country, whereas marginal production costs are lower for the former. An importing country within the FTA imposes tariffs on imports that do not comply with the ROO. We show that the optimal ROO may have a protectionist bias or cause low utilization of FTAs depending on parameter values. |
| Keywords: | free trade area/agreement; rules of origin; compliance costs; oligopoly; double rent-shifting |
| JEL: | F12 F15 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-14-016&r=mfd |
| By: | Bea Cantillon; Diego Collado; Natascha Van Mechelen |
| Abstract: | Why is it that, in almost three decades and despite growth of income, employment and high levels of social spending, even the most developed welfare states in the world failed to improve minimum income protection for families with children? To what extent the erosion of minimum income protection for the working age population compared to median household incomes has been occasioned by exogenous changes either in median household incomes or in gross low wages? Or, has the erosion been associated with deliberate cutbacks of benefit levels? We focus on a limited set of vulnerable households with children, viz. working-aged couples and single parents who either are jobless or live on one low wage and use survey data (ECHP 1994-2001 and SILC 2005-2008 and 2012) and standard simulations of disposable incomes of typical households in order to address these questions. We find that in all EU’s most developed welfare states minimum income protection for work-poor households with children fall short compared to the poverty threshold (defined as 60% of equivalised median household income). Typically, in the decades before the crisis this shortfall has become increasingly bigger. In most countries with available data this was not associated with deliberate cuts in benefit levels for the poor: in general, net disposable incomes of families on social assistance evolved at a similar pace as the net income packages of corresponding families on low wages. Rather, the erosion of the minimum social floor appears to have been related to sinking gross low wages compared to median household incomes. This points at severe and increasing structural difficulties to reduce poverty. |
| Keywords: | poverty, low wages, social benefits |
| JEL: | I38 J32 J38 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1503&r=mfd |
| By: | Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte; Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro |
| Abstract: | En el presente trabajo se realiza un análisis del crecimiento económico municipal en el período 1993-2012.El objetivo es evaluar la existencia de convergencia teniendo en cuenta las externalidades del capital humano y el capital físico. Siguiendo el análisis propuesto por Mankiw et al. (1992)1, se estiman las ecuaciones de convergencia aumentadas con capital humano. Se realizan pruebas de autocorrelación espacial,y dado que este fenómeno puede afectar los resultados de las estimaciones, se incorporan dichos efectos en las ecuaciones de convergencia. Para ello se sigue la propuesta de Ertur y Koch (2006; 2007), quienes incluyen las externalidades tecnológicas en el análisis del modelo que considera solamente el capital físico (Solow, 1956), y en el modelo aumentado con el capital humano (MRW, 1992).Los resultados indican que cuando no se tienen en cuenta los efectos de los spillovers, existe evidencia de convergencia. Esta, sin embargo, desaparece cuando dichos efectos son añadidos al modelo******ABSTRACT: In this paper we conduct an analysis of economic growth and convergence in the Colombian municipalities during the period 1993-2012. The objective is to evaluate the existence of convergence taking into account the externalities of physical and human capital. According to Mankiw et al. (1992), we estimate convergence equations that are augmented with human capital. Moreover, spatial autocorrelation tests carried out show that this phenomenon can bias the results, leading us to incorporate them in the estimation. We follow the methodology proposed by Ertur and Koch (2006, 2007), who include technological externalities in the analysis of the model which solely considers physical capital (Solow, 1956), and the augmented model with human capital (MRW, 1992). The results show that when spillovers are not taken into account, there is evidence of convergence, however such evidence disappears once they are included in the model |
| Keywords: | crecimiento económico, convergencia, externalidades espaciales |
| JEL: | C31 O O54 R11 |
| Date: | 2015–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000102:012585&r=mfd |
| By: | Duarte, Fernando M. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Rosa, Carlo (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the equity risk premium (ERP) by combining information from twenty models. The ERP in 2012 and 2013 reached heightened levels—of around 12 percent—not seen since the 1970s. We conclude that the high ERP was caused by unusually low Treasury yields. |
| Keywords: | equity premium; stock returns |
| JEL: | C58 G00 G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:714&r=mfd |
| By: | Jagannath Mallick |
| Abstract: | Globalisation, has intensified the demand preference for quality labour, that embodies more knowledge and competency/skill to maximise the production in one hand, and it has also changed the life style and consumption behavior of the society on the other. As a consequence, this has led to significant changes in the composition and structure of the economy, and also, the reallocation of labour. The study examines the reallocation effect (or structural change) and the direct effect of globalization on labour productivity growth in BRICS countries. The study also examines the relative role of consumption factors and other factors for the structural development during globalization. The study uses shift–share analysis, dynamic panel data method and input-output tables for the empirical analysis during 1990-91 to 2011-12. The findings show that the contribution of structural change is relatively significant in China and India. The globalization measures including international trade and FDI are found to have significant impact on the upsurge of labour productivity growth in BRICS, where the consumption demand predominates among the factors of structural development. |
| Keywords: | Globalisation, FDI, Trade, Labour productivity, Structural Change, BRICS |
| JEL: | F1 J01 J08 R1 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:141&r=mfd |
| By: | Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Department of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | I investigate the consequences of long-run persistency of a society’s preferences for cultural goods. Historical cultural activity is approximated with the frequency of births of music composers during the Renaissance and is linked with contemporary measures of cultural activity in Italian provinces. Areas with a one percent higher number of composer births nowadays show an up to 0.29% higher supply of classical concerts and 0.16% more opera performances. Classical concerts and opera performances have also rather bigger audiences and obtain greater revenues in provinces that have been culturally active in the past. Today, those provinces also exhibit a somewhat lower supply of other forms of entertainment (e.g., sport events), thereby implying a tantalising divergence in societies’ cultural preferences which is attributable to events rooted in the past. It is also shown that the geography of composer births is remarkably persistent over a period of seven centuries. |
| Keywords: | Economic development; Culture; Institutions; Path dependence; Endogenous preferences |
| JEL: | N33 N34 O10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2015_003&r=mfd |
| By: | Raúl A. Cardona Montoya; Ermilson Velásquez Ceballos; Tatiana M. Vidal Gutiérrez; Raúl A. Escobar Orrego |
| Abstract: | Using methodology developed by ROSS, the Return on Assets - ROA was assessed for a firm of public utilities for water and sewer department of Antioquia. The public utilities sector of water is monopolistic nature and the method of valuation of the cost of capital used to determine the rates of the companies involved in this, is regulated by an agency of Colombia. This paper evaluates a different or complementary alternative to the CAPM method used by the regulator to find the cost of capital that reflects the characteristics of this market in Colombia. For achieving this goal, in this paper the method of principal components is incorporated, reducing 19 observed variables that are classified into various categories: macroeconomic, financial, technical and operating of the company studied. From the data, it was established the results achieved in five components that determine the profitability of the assets of the company analyzed, highlighting the geographical coverage and operational performance. ****** Con la metodología APT desarrollada por ROSS, se evaluó la Rentabilidad del Activo - ROA para una empresa de servicios públicos domiciliarios de acueducto y alcantarillado del departamento antioqueño. El sector de los servicios públicos domiciliarios de aguas es de naturaleza monopólica y el método de valoración del costo de capital empleado para determinar las tarifas de las empresas que participan en éste, se encuentra regulado por un órgano del Estado colombiano. Este trabajo pretende evaluar una alternativa diferente o complementaria al método CAPM empleado por el regulador, para encontrar el costo de capital que refleje las características de este mercado en Colombia. Para lograrlo, en este artículo se incorpora el método de componentes principales como medio de reducción de 19 variables observadas que se agrupan en diversas categorías: macroeconómicas, financieras y técnico operativas de la empresa analizada. A partir de los datos se modelo el ROA, estableciéndose de los resultados alcanzados que cinco componentes determinan la rentabilidad del activo de la empresa analizada, destacándose de ellas la cobertura geográfica y el rendimiento Operativo. |
| Keywords: | Tasa de Descuento; Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); Modelo de Arbitrajede Precios – APT; Rentabilidad del Activo – ROA |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:012580&r=mfd |
| By: | Angeletos, George-Marios; Collard, Fabrice; Dellas, Harris |
| Abstract: | We enrich workhorse macroeconomic models with a mechanism that proxies strategic uncertainty and that manifests itself as waves of optimism and pessimism about the short-term economic outlook. We interpret this mechanism as variation in "confidence" and show that it helps account for many salient features of the data; it drives a significant fraction of the volatility in estimated models that allow for multiple structural shocks; it captures a type of fluctuations in "aggregate demand" that does not rest on nominal rigidities; and it calls into question existing interpretations of the observed recessions. We complement these findings with evidence that most of the business cycle in the data is captured by an empirical factor which is unlike certain structural forces that are popular in the literature but similar to the one we formalize here. |
| Keywords: | aggregate demand; business cycles; confidence; coordination failure; DSGE models; higher-order beliefs; strategic uncertainty |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10463&r=mfd |
| By: | Ben Lockwood (University of Warwick); Erez Yerushalmi (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the optimal taxation of transactions services in a dynamic general equilibrium setting, where households use both cash and costly transactions services provided by banks to purchase consumption goods. With a full set of all tax instruments, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate. However, all optimal tax structures distort the relative costs of payment media, by raising the relative cost of deposits to cash. In the simplest optimal tax structure, the Friedman rule holds i.e. cash should be untaxed, and the rate of tax on transactions services can be higher or lower than the consumption tax. When parameters are calibrated to US data, simulations suggest that the transactions services tax should be considerably lower. This is because a transactions tax has a "double distortion": it distorts the choice between payment media, and indirectly taxes consumption. This contrasts with the special case of the cashless economy, when the first distortion is absent: in this case, it is optimal to tax transactions services at the same rate as consumption. |
| Keywords: | financial intermediation services, tax design, banks, monitoring,payment services |
| JEL: | G21 H21 H25 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1423&r=mfd |
| By: | Singh, K.M.; Kumar, Abhay; Singh, R.K.P. |
| Abstract: | The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in agriculture is increasingly important. E-Agriculture is an emerging field focusing on the enhancement of agricultural and rural development through improved information and communication processes. More specifically, e-Agriculture involves the conceptualization, design, development, evaluation and application of innovative ways to use information and communication technologies (ICT) in the rural domain, with a primary focus on agriculture.ICTs promise a fundamental change in all aspects of our lives, including knowledge dissemination, social interaction, economic and business practices, political engagement, media, education, health, leisure and entertainment. ICTs are most natural allies to facilitate the outreach of Agricultural Extension system in the country. Despite large, well-educated, well-trained and well-organized Agricultural extension manpower, around 60% of farmers in the country still remain unreached, not served by any extension agency or functionary. Information is vital to tackle climate change effects: for this reason, a shift is needed in the agriculture sector to disseminate appropriate knowledge at the right time to the ones who are at the front line in the battle: the farmers, in both developed and developing countries. At the same time, information alone is not enough, but appropriate communications systems are needed to ensure that information come to farmers in an effective, accurate and clear way. The present papers tries to capture some of the ICT initiatives in agricultural sector, with reference to Indian agriculture. |
| Keywords: | ICTs, Agriculture, Decision Support System, Climate change |
| JEL: | Q0 Q01 Q1 Q16 |
| Date: | 2015–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62413&r=mfd |
| By: | Ferrante, Francesco |
| Abstract: | The technology of cognitive and non-cognitive skills formation is characterized by the cumulative nature of learning processes and by the presence of significant complementarities and irreversibilities in the acquisition of such skills [Cunha and Heckman, 2007]. From this it follows that, in order to evaluate the quality of individual phases of skills formation, it is necessary to take account of the quality of the human capital entering the training process. It is evident that this aspect is more important, the more advanced the level of education. This paper evaluates the effects of the quality of Italian matriculants at 24 engineering faculties measured with the results of the CISIA standardized test on the regularity of university studies. The preliminary results confirm that failing to take account of the incoming quality of students may give rise to significant distortions in the evaluation of the academic productivity of universities. |
| Keywords: | Higher education, quality, rankings, value added |
| JEL: | I21 I22 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62450&r=mfd |
| By: | Simonson, Itamar (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Lynch and Schwarz offer different assessments of the "mission accomplished" conclusion and the summary of the manner in which BDT research tested well-established economics assumptions and offered an alternative view of decision making. By and large Lynch and I are in agreement regarding the effectiveness of the BDT research approach given its mission and audience; building on his own experiences, John reinforces the call to social psychology "immigrants" to contribute even more to emerging decision topics in consumer behavior. By contrast, Schwarz questions the value of the "mission," refers to the economics assumptions regarding decision making as a mere "strawman," and is critical of the BDT focus on effects instead of offering a coherent process theory of decision making. In the first section of this reply, I argue that (a) establishing robust effects first, typically followed by a study of moderators, processes, and rivals, was the most effective approach given the field's mission and audience, and (b) no single framework or theory can account for the many different ways in which the value maximization assumption is violated and decisions are made. Regarding the proposed research program to study the interactions between the evolving information environment and consumer judgment and choice, both Lynch and Schwarz offer alternative hypotheses with respect to key questions. In particular, they both disagree with the suggestion that the ability to easily access more and better information about quality and to make comparisons tends to produce better decisions and decrease the types of irrationality violations previously demonstrated by BDT researchers. They point in particular to information overload, the limitations of quality information, and the "echo chamber" characteristics of social media. There are also disagreements regarding other propositions pertaining, for example, to the role of brands and the need to rewrite large sections of the consumer behavior textbook. I discuss the important issues raised by Lynch and Schwarz and the factors that moderate the overall impact of the information environment. As our exchange demonstrates, this is a rich and important area that offers BDT and other researchers a wide range of topics and competing predictions that can be addressed in future research. We have two outstanding commentators, John Lynch (hereafter "Lynch") and Norbert Schwarz ("Schwarz"), both of whom are exceptional researchers who have made numerous important contributions. Their comments in this case are very different. I am in agreement with Lynch on most issues, especially as they relate to the record and characteristics of BDT research as well as a decision facing consumer BDT researchers. In the second part, we make some different predictions regarding the impact of the evolving information environment on consumer decision making. Lynch, who joined the marketing field from social psychology about 35 years ago, also shares his perspective on the call to social psychologists who have joined the marketing field over the past 15 years to contribute even more to the proposed consumer-centric research areas. Unlike the Lynch comment, the Schwarz critique of BDT research creates a sharp contrast between the "mission accomplished" recap presented in the main article and his view of the field's shortcomings. Schwarz's point of view regarding BDT has been shared and expressed for many years by some researchers within the consumer research community. Now that a key milestone in the BDT field lifecycle has been reached (as suggested in the main article), I am glad to have the opportunity to present my point of view regarding this critique as presented by Schwarz and like-minded researchers in the consumer behavior field. I hope not to make Lynch feel neglected, but I will focus in the first part of this reply on Schwarz's comments. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3163&r=mfd |
| By: | Michael Devereux (Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation); Rita de la Feria (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | The current international tax system based upon the principles of source and residence is no longer suited to a globalised world economy, and the fundamentals of the international tax system need to be re-examined. An R+F based cash-flow tax based on the principle of destination has been proposed as a suitable alternative to taxing corporations in an international setting. The aim of this paper is to discuss the legal and practical issues which would arise in the implementation of such a tax, namely how a destination-based tax could be effectively designed and implemented. For this purpose we draw on experiences with designing VAT systems worldwide. It is proposed that the destination principle should be implemented through use of the customers’ location as the main legal proxy. We argue that the country where the customer is located has both the substantive jurisdiction to tax, i.e. the legitimacy to impose tax, and enforcement jurisdiction to tax, i.e. the effective legal and implementing means of collecting the proposed tax. As regards enforcement jurisdiction to tax, we propose that a one-stop-shop system similar to that being experimented in VAT as the most effective means of collecting tax. Other potential implementing issues are addressed, namely deductibility of expenses and tax credits, susceptibility to avoidance and fraud, treatment of financial transactions, and treatment of small businesses. We conclude that, if it were applied in an international cooperation setting, it would indeed be legitimate and administratively possible to implement a destination-based corporate tax. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1407&r=mfd |
| By: | Iuliia N. Naidenova (National Research University Higher School); Petr A. Parshakov (National Research University Higher School); Marina A. Zavertiaeva (National Research University Higher School); Eduardo Tome (Universidade Europeia) |
| Abstract: | This is the first paper to explore which characteristics of Russian fund managers are connected with a higher abnormal return (measured by Jensen’s alpha) and risk (beta) for mutual funds. While only some fund managers publish biographic sketches we use the Heckman procedure to control for self-selection issues. The results support the idea that individual characteristics indicate the possibility to earn abnormal alpha. The relationship between both fund performance measures and manager experience has inverted U-shape. The results can be used as a simple screening system that helps to choose a mutual fund to invest in without sophisticated calculations |
| Keywords: | Russia, equity funds, individual intellectual capital, Jensen’s alpha |
| JEL: | J24 G11 G23 M50 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:42/fe/2015&r=mfd |
| By: | Kashcheeva, Mila; Tsui, Kevin K. |
| Abstract: | International politics affects oil trade. But do financial and commercial traders who participate in spot oil trading also respond to changes in international politics? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to increases in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. However, the political pattern of oil imports is not entirely driven by the concerns of hold-up risks, which exist when oil transactions via term contracts are associated with backward vertical FDI that is subject to expropriation. In particular, our results indicate that even financial and commercial traders significantly reduce their oil imports from U.S. political enemies. Interestingly, while these traders diversify their oil imports politically immediately after changes in international politics, other oil companies reduce their oil imports with a significant time lag. Our findings suggest that in designing regulations to avoid harmful repercussions on commodity and financial assets, policymakers need to understand the nature of political risk. |
| Keywords: | United States, Petroleum, International trade, Foreign investments, Energy policy, International politics, FDI-based imports, Hold-up risk, Energy security |
| JEL: | F13 F51 F59 Q34 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper491&r=mfd |
| By: | Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti (Banco de España); Nuno Garoupa (University of Illinois) |
| Abstract: | There is empirical evidence of a cross-country positive association between the number of lawyers per capita and the extent of litigation. For instance, Spain has more litigation and more lawyers per capita than most OECD countries. How should this association be interpreted? In this paper we analyse the variation in both variables across Spanish provinces during the period 2001-2010, by means of an instrumental variable approach, to shed some light on the sources of the statistical association between them. Finally, implications of the results are discussed. |
| Keywords: | lawyers, litigation, civil courts, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | K41 K42 J44 L84 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1505&r=mfd |
| By: | Anna Minasyan (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | Development aid from the West may lead to adverse growth effects in the global South due to the neglected cultural context in the development framework. There is evidence that development agendas are mainly premised upon western thought and belief systems. Therefore, I hypothesize that the expected effect of development aid on the economic growth of recipients is impaired by cultural differences between western donors and aid recipients. I test this hypothesis empirically by augmenting an aid-growth model with proxy variables of cultural distance between donors and recipients. Namely, based on the theory of cultural transmission, I use donor-recipient weighted genetic distance, to capture vertical transmission of culture. Then, I use western education of the chief executive of the recipient country to capture horizontal transmission of culture. Results of OLS panel estimation in first differences for 1961-2010 period show that a one unit increase in donor-recipient genetic distance reduces the effect of aid on growth by 0.2 percentage points, if aid is increased by one percentage point. In turn, a one percentage point increase in aid yields, on average, 0.3 percentage point increase in growth after a decade, if the leader in power has western education. |
| Keywords: | aid effectiveness; cultural differences; genetic distance; western education |
| JEL: | O17 O19 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:167&r=mfd |
| By: | Kenneth Harttgen (ETH Zurich); Stephan Klasen (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Ramona Rischke (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | The 2007/2008 food price crisis and the following global economic recession has (temporarily) increased the number of people to suffer from hunger. While the impacts can be measured with precision only ex post, for policy makers it is critical to get a sense of likely impacts ex ante in order to plan approaches to mitigate these impacts. In this paper we adopt a very simple micro-based simulation approach to analyze how changes in prices of specific food groups, such as maize prices or prices for staple foods, as well as how negative short-term household level income shocks affect the entitlements to calorie consumption of individuals and how these changes affect overall food poverty. We illustrate our approach using household survey data from Malawi. We find that food poverty is of serious concern with large within-country variations. We find that price shocks for staple foods have a very large impact on food security with particularly strong effects on poor net food buyers in rural and urban areas. This paper demonstrates that it is possible to estimate food security impacts of price and income shocks ex ante in a relatively straightforward fashion that can be done relatively quickly and that is suitable for cross-country assessments of the likely impacts of shocks on food security and the design of appropriate response measures. |
| Keywords: | Price shock; Income shock; Simulation approach; Food security; Entitlement approach |
| JEL: | C4 D6 I3 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:166&r=mfd |
| By: | DeMarzo, Peter M. (Stanford University); Livdan, Dmitry (University of CA, Berkeley); Tchistyi, Alexei (University of CA, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We consider optimal incentive contracts when managers can, in addition to shirking or diverting funds, increase short term profits by putting the firm at risk of a low probability "disaster." To avoid such risk-taking, investors must cede additional rents to the manager. In a dynamic context, however, because managerial rents must be reduced following poor performance to prevent shirking, poorly performing managers will take on disaster risk even under an optimal contract. This risk taking can be mitigated if disaster states can be identified ex-post by paying the manager a large bonus if the firm survives. But even in this case, if performance is sufficiently weak the manager will forfeit eligibility for a bonus, and again take on disaster risk. When effort costs are convex, reductions in effort incentives are used to limit risk taking, with a jump to high powered incentives in the gambling region. Our model can explain why suboptimal risk taking can emerge even when investors are fully rational and managers are compensated optimally. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3149&r=mfd |
| By: | John Ameriks; Joseph S. Briggs; Andrew Caplin; Matthew D. Shapiro; Christopher Tonetti |
| Abstract: | Older wealthholders spend down assets slowly. To study this pattern, the paper introduces health dependent utility into a model in which different preferences for bequests, expenditures when in need of long-term care (LTC), and ordinary consumption combine with health and longevity uncertainty to determine saving behavior. To help separately identify motives, it develops Strategic Survey Questions (SSQs) that elicit stated preferences. The model is estimated using new SSQ and wealth data from the Vanguard Research Initiative. Estimates of the health-state utility function imply that motives associated with LTC are significantly more important than bequest motives in determining late in life saving. |
| JEL: | D91 E21 H31 I10 J14 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20973&r=mfd |
| By: | Nagar, Venky (University of MI); Rajan, Madhav V. (Stanford University); Ray, Korok (George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This study endogenously generates the asymmetric verification concept of conservatism, using evolutionary biology as a foundation. A producer produces (or hunts) a consumable with a stochastic production technology, and possibly faces a stealer thereafter, who seeks to expropriate the consumable. The producer, for fear of being perceived as weak, will never share her output with the stealer, but will launch an all-out fight. This all-or nothing gamble demonstrates the producer's convex utility in losses. On the other hand, the optimal choice in production (or hunting) indicates a concave preference in gains. These endogenously derived asymmetric risk-profiles towards gains and losses, when applied to choice theory, generate a demand for higher verifiability standards for probable gains than losses. The model then shows how this preference is modulated by various social and informational configurations of individuals. Our findings explain observed conservatism patterns in a variety of institutional settings. |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3053&r=mfd |
| By: | Ribeiro, Vitor |
| Abstract: | The paper studies indirect network effects in a market composed by two incompatible intermediaries that choose price (short-term issue) in addition to location (long-term issue). The paper first shows that (i) when the network externality is sufficiently weak, only maximum differentiation prevails, (ii) the location equilibrium can be asymmetric for an intermediate level of the network externality, given that the first entrant locates at the city centre while the follower chooses an extreme (niche) positional location and (iii) tipping occurs favouring the leader in the location choice when the intensity of the network externality is sufficiently strong. Moreover, the paper concludes that the likelihood of an asymmetric location equilibrium is higher when there is no mismatch between the product space occupied by consumers and intermediaries. Finally, the author concludes that a penetration pricing strategy conducted by a third intermediary is more successful when the pre-entry condition is not the tipping equilibrium location. |
| Keywords: | simple network effect,unconstrained spatial competition,location leadership |
| JEL: | D43 L13 R12 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201511&r=mfd |
| By: | Jouini, Nizar; Oulmane, Nassim; Peridy, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | The North African countries (NACs) production and export structure is suffering from double constraints: insufficient diversification along with excessively weak sophistication. This study establish a deeper link between diversification/sophistication on and growth in the NACs. The study assesses the impact of these variables on the growth of these countries so as to verify whether the current export structure is indeed a constraint to the economic development. The approach used consists in estimating a growth model as a Barro's regression (conditional -convergence model) using panel data. The paper identify the factors determining diversification and sophistication of exports so as to find the various levers and actions which would firstly allow NACs to diversify their exports to higher added value products and secondly to take the existing products to a higher level of sophistication. The last part of this study proposes recommendations in terms of economic policies based on obtained results, highlighting the role of various stakeholders, and different policies. |
| Keywords: | Export diversification, sophistication, North Africa. |
| JEL: | F15 F43 O14 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62476&r=mfd |
| By: | Katherina Kuschel (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo) |
| Abstract: | This study wants to question the increasingly “popular” notion that self-employment represents a solution to conflict between work and family by comparing the levels of satisfaction with work-family balance and subjective well-being among three samples: organizational employees, entrepreneurs, and the double profile. Based in the job demands-resources framework, this study compares job demands, job resources, and key personal resources among the three groups of workers. Results show that entrepreneurs experience higher levels of satisfaction with work-family balance and subjective well-being, and enjoy greater job resources and key personal resources than organizational employees. Particularly, job autonomy, work-family climate and job security (withdrawal chances) were the greater differences. Interestingly, the double profile share more similarities with the employees group than with the entrepreneurs. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurs; satisfaction with work family balance; subjective well-being; job resources; job demands |
| JEL: | M12 M14 L26 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dsr:wpaper:05&r=mfd |
| By: | Dasgupta, Susmita; Huq, Mainul; Wheeler, David |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh, with two-thirds of its land area less than five meters above sea level, is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. Low-lying coastal districts along the Bay of Bengal are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, tidal flooding, storm surges, and climate-induced increases in soil and water salinity. This paper investigates the impact of drinking water salinity on infant mortality in coastal Bangladesh. It focuses on the salinity of drinking water consumed during pregnancy, which extensive medical research has linked to maternal hypertension, preeclampsia, and post-partum morbidity and mortality. The study combines spatially-formatted salinity measures for 2001-09 provided by Bangladesh with individual and household survey information from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys for 2004 and 2007. It uses probit and logit analyses to estimate mortality probability for infants less than two months old. Controlling for many other determinants of infant mortality, the analysis finds high significance for salinity exposure during the last month of pregnancy and no significance for exposure during the preceding months. The estimated impact of salinity on infant mortality is comparable in magnitude to the estimated effects of traditionally-cited variables such as maternal age and education, gender of the household head, household wealth, toilet facilities, drinking water sources, and cooking fuels. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Water Conservation,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water and Industry,Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7200&r=mfd |
| By: | Bernstein, Shai (Stanford University); Giroud, Xavier (MIT); Townsend, Richard (Dartmouth College) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether venture capitalists contribute to the innovation and success of their portfolio companies, or merely select companies that are already poised to innovate and succeed. To do so, we exploit exogenous reductions in monitoring costs stemming from the introduction of new airline routes between venture capital firms and their existing portfolio companies. Within an existing relationship, we find that reductions in travel time are associated with an increase in the number of patents and number of citations per patent of the portfolio company, as well as an increase in the likelihood of an eventual IPO or acquisition. These results are robust when controlling for local shocks that could potentially drive the introduction of the new airline routes. We further document that the effect is concentrated in routes that connect lead VCs with portfolio companies, as opposed to other investors. Overall, these results are consistent with the monitoring channel and hence indicate that venture capitalists' physical presence at their portfolio companies is an important determinant of innovation and success. |
| JEL: | D81 G24 L26 M13 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3007&r=mfd |
| By: | Alankar, Ashwin (Alliance Bernstein); Blaustein, Peter (Oak Hill Advisors); Scholes, Myron S. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Traditional academic literature has relied on so-called "limits to arbitrage" theories to explain why investment managers are unable to eliminate the effects of investor "irrational" preferences (either the asset-pricing anomalies or the behavioral finance literature) on asset pricing. We demonstrate, however, that investment managers may not eliminate the observed asset-pricing anomalies because they may contribute to their existence. We show that if managers face constraints such as a "tracking-error constraint," coupled with the need to hold liquidity to meet redemptions or to actively-manage investments, they optimally hold higher-volatility securities in their portfolios. Investment constraints, such as tracking-error constraints, however, reduce the principal-agent problems inherent in delegated asset management and serve as effective risk-control tools. Liquidity reserves allow managers to meet redemptions or redeploy risks efficiently. We prove that investment managers will combine a portfolio of active risks (a so-called "alpha portfolio") for a given level of liquidity with a hedging portfolio designed to control tracking error. As the demand for either liquidity or active management increases presumably because of confidence in alpha, the cost of maintaining the tracking-error constraint increases in that the investment managers must finance these demands by selling more lower-volatility securities and holding more higher volatility securities. With more demand for the "alpha" portfolio, managers are forced to buy more of the tracking-error control portfolio. Investment managers and their investors are willing to hold inefficient portfolios and to give up returns, if necessary, to control the tracking-error of their portfolios. Given the liquidity and tracking-error constraints, investment managers concentrate more of their holdings in higher volatility (higher beta) securities. And, we show that it is optimal for investors to limit their manager's use of leverage, which implies that leverage has a different cost other than the cost of borrowing exceeding the return from lending. Empirically, we show that active investment managers, such as mutual funds, hold portfolios that concentrate in higher volatility securities. Moreover, when they change their holdings of their "alpha" portfolios (reduce or increase their tracking error by choice), the relative prices of higher volatility stocks change according to the predictions of the model. That is, if investment managers move closer to a market portfolio, the prices of lower-volatility stocks rise more than the prices of higher-volatility stocks given changes in the prices of other market factors. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3086&r=mfd |
| By: | Benedikt Fecher; Sascha Friesike; Marcel Hebing; Stephanie Linek; Armin Sauermann |
| Abstract: | Academic data sharing is a way for researchers to collaborate and thereby meet the needs of an increasingly complex research landscape. It enables researchers to verify results and to pursuit new research questions with “old†data. It is therefore not surprising that data sharing is advocated by funding agencies, journals, and researchers alike. We surveyed 2661 individual academic researchers across all disciplines on their dealings with data, their publication practices, and motives for sharing or withholding research data. The results for 1564 valid responses show that researchers across disciplines recognise the benefit of secondary research data for their own work and for scientific progress as a whole—still they only practice it in moderation. An explanation for this evidence could be an academic system that is not driven by monetary incentives, nor the desire for scientific progress, but by individual reputation—expressed in (high ranked journal) publications. We label this system a Reputation Economy. This special economy explains our findings that show that researchers have a nuanced idea how to provide adequate formal recognition for making data available to others—namely data citations. We conclude that data sharing will only be widely adopted among research professionals if sharing pays in form of reputation. Thus, policy measures that intend to foster research collaboration need to understand academia as a reputation economy. Successful measures must value intermediate products, such as research data, more highly than it is the case now. |
| Keywords: | Data sharing, research policy, reputation, science, survey research |
| JEL: | C81 D02 D23 L89 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1454&r=mfd |
| By: | Debgupta, Sanchari |
| Abstract: | Last decade of 20th century faced a strong quest for the determinants of the rate of long run economic growth. Post World War II, human capital has emerged as an important and inevitable factor apart from the other general factors that affect the rate of growth. According to economists and existing theories of growth, a nation that invests in human capital generation should contribute positively in the process of economic growth. Human capital embodies qualities that are inherited as well as acquired through education and training. The returns to investment in human capital not only help individuals to enjoy personal growth but in addition affect the growth of the nation as an aggregate. This paper observes the relationship that prevails between human capital and economic growth in the Indian economy based on NSSO unit level household data. With the help of panel data econometric analysis, the study finds out that human capital generation as an aggregate of average general educational level, literacy rate, per capita educational expenditure and primary enrolment rate, positively impact the per capita net state domestic product, taken as a representative for economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Economic Growth, Panel Data Econometrics |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C23 |
| Date: | 2015–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62468&r=mfd |
| By: | Jhonatan Pérez; Carlos León; Ricardo Mariño |
| Abstract: | Con base en las métricas propias utilizadas para el análisis de redes complejas e información transaccional, este trabajo permite realizar una caracterización del mercado spot peso/dólar y forward peso/dólar colombiano. En particular, es posible establecer que estos pueden ser catalogados como redes de estructura jerárquica donde un reducido grupo de Intermediarios del Mercado Cambiario centrales (periféricas) poseen una gran (pequeña) porción tanto del número de transacciones como del monto promedio negociado. Dichos resultados sugieren que ambos mercados: (i) son robustos ante la extracción aleatoria de participantes; (ii) son frágiles ante la extracción determinística de participantes centrales; y (iii) la mejor manera de “inmunizar” (i.e. la intensidad de la regulación, supervisión y seguimiento) de manera óptima los mercados es enfocarse en los participantes centrales. Adicionalmente, este trabajo resalta el papel que tiene la infraestructura financiera del país como generador de información estandarizada y confiable de mercado, la cual puede ser considerada como insumo en la toma de decisiones que involucran a las entidades involucradas en las funciones de la regulación, supervisión y seguimiento de los mercados financieros. |
| Keywords: | Minimal spanning tree, análisis de redes, centralidad, power-law. |
| JEL: | D85 G2 E42 |
| Date: | 2015–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:012583&r=mfd |
| By: | Bruno Lanz; Allan Provins |
| Abstract: | Discrete choice experiments (DCE) are increasingly used to quantify the demand for improvements to services provided by regulated utility companies and inform price controls. This form of preference elicitation, however, often reveals a high frequency of status quo (SQ) choices. This may signal an unwillingness of respondents to evaluate the proposed trade-offs in service levels, questioning the welfare theoretic interpretation of observed choices and the validity of the approach for regulatory purposes. Using the methodology for DCE in the regulation of water and sewerage services in England and Wales, our paper contributes to the understanding of SQ choices in several novel dimensions. First, we control for the perception of the SQ and the importance of attributes in day-to-day activities. Second, we use a split sample design to vary both the description of the SQ and the survey administration mode (online vs. in-person). Third, the service attributes can both improve or deteriorate, so that the SQ is not necessarily the least-cost option. Fourth, we examine SQ choices in individual choice tasks and across all tasks so as to identify the determinants of serial SQ choices. Our results suggest that individual SQ choices mostly reflect preferences and thus represent important information for the regulator. However, serial SQ choices are mainly driven by cognitive and/or contextual factors, and these responses should be analysed as part of standard validity tests. |
| Keywords: | Cost-benefit analysis; Regulated utilities; Economic valuation; Discrete choice experiments; Individual decision making; Status quo effect. |
| JEL: | C25 L43 L95 Q25 Q51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:ciesrp:cies_rp_35&r=mfd |
| By: | Ádam Chimienti; Benjamin Creutzfeldt |
| Abstract: | By employing a comparative method that analyzes China’s increasing presence in different Latin America countries, this study explores key features and implications of Beijing’s approach towards this region. Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are used as case studies to evaluate China’s diplomatic rhetoric and the degree to which trade and investment realities live up to the goals proclaimed. Each of the countries examined seeks a more balanced relationship with external actors and recognizes China’s increased presence in the domestic political economy. Beijing seeks to distinguish itself as a soft power and “South-South” partner, and yet its ability to maintain this stance is complicated by the inevitable asymmetry that a rising China implies. The paper argues that China’s economic involvement in terms of trade, aid, loans and investment is indisputably important, but just one opportunity amongst many for these countries to achieve the political and economic goals that they have set for themselves. |
| Keywords: | China relations with South America; neoliberal economics; win-win; South-South cooperation; Washington Consensus; FDI. |
| JEL: | F23 O12 O54 Q33 Q56 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:61103&r=mfd |
| By: | Gammoudi, Mouna; Cherif, Mondher |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how capital account liberalization (CAL) affects Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows. The authors use the System Generalized-Method-of-Moments (GMM) estimator developed for the dynamic panel model for a sample of 17 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries from 1985 to 2009. Their findings reveal that the positive impact of CAL on FDI depends on the political stability in a host country. Furthermore, the results show that enhancing democratic institutions, enforcing property rights, reducing the risk of expropriation and religious tension seem to be some of the most promising policies to attract FDI to the region. The authors also find that foreign investors value the quality of institutions more than the level of corruption or bureaucratic quality in the location choice. Their results are robust to using different indicators of institutional quality. The findings are relevant for MENA countries given that many of them have engaged in a process of liberalization and have weak institutions. |
| Keywords: | capital account liberalization,foreign direct investment,institutional quality,GMM-system |
| JEL: | C23 D73 F21 F43 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201510&r=mfd |
| By: | Piergiorgio Alessandri (Bank of Italy); Sergio Masciantonio (Bank of Italy); Andrea Zaghini (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology to identify and rank ‘systemically important financial institutions’ (SIFIs). Our approach is consistent with that followed by the Financial Stability Board but, unlike the latter, it is free of judgment and it is based entirely on publicly available data, thus filling the gap between the official views of the regulator and those that market participants form with their own information set. We apply the methodology on three samples of banks (global, EU and euro area) for the years 2007-12. |
| Keywords: | systemic risk, too big to fail |
| JEL: | G21 G01 G18 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_259_15&r=mfd |
| By: | Sutan, Angela (Groupe ESC Dijon Bourgogne, LESSAC Laboratoire d'Expérimentation en en Sciences Sociales et Analyse des Comportements et LAMETA); Vranceanu, Radu (ESSEC Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports results from a three-player variant of the ultimatum game in which the Proposer can delegate to a third party his decision regarding how to share his endowment with a Responder with a standard veto right. However, the Responder cannot verify whether the delegation is effective or the third party merely plays a “scapegoat” role while the decision is made by the Proposer himself. In this imperfect information setting, the Proposer can send an unverifiable message declaring his delegation strategy. The most interesting strategy is “false delegation”, in which the Proposer makes the decision but claims to have delegated it. In our sample, the recourse to false delegation is significant, and a significant number of potential Delegates accept serving in the scapegoat role. However, there are many honest Proposers, and 20% of all Delegates will refuse to be the accomplices of a dishonest Proposer. Responders tend to more readily accept poor offers in a setup that permits lying about delegation; the acceptance rate of the poor offer is the highest when Delegates can refuse the scapegoat role. |
| Keywords: | delegation of responsibility; lies; communications strategy; ultimatum game; dishonesty |
| JEL: | C72 C91 D82 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-15002&r=mfd |
| By: | Negoescu, Diana M. (University of MN); Bimpikis, Kostas (Stanford University); Brandeau, Margaret L. (Stanford University); Iancu, Dan A. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Currently available medication for treating many chronic diseases is often effective only for a subgroup of patients, and biomarkers accurately assessing whether an individual belongs to this subgroup do not exist. In such settings, physicians learn about the effectiveness of a drug primarily through experimentation, i.e., by initiating treatment and monitoring the patient's response. Precise guidelines for discontinuing treatment are often lacking or left entirely at the physician's discretion. We introduce a framework for developing adaptive, personalized treatments for such chronic diseases. Our model is based on a continuous-time, multi-armed bandit setting, and acknowledges that drug effectiveness can be assessed by aggregating information from several channels: by continuously monitoring the (self-reported) state of the patient, but also by (not) observing the occurrence of particular infrequent health events, such as relapses or disease flare-ups. Recognizing that the timing and severity of such events carries critical information for treatment design is a key point of departure in our framework compared with typical (bandit) models used in healthcare. We show that the model can be analyzed in closed form for several settings of interest, resulting in optimal policies that are intuitive and have practical appeal. We showcase the effectiveness of the methodology by developing a treatment policy for multiple sclerosis. When compared with standard guidelines, our scheme identifies non-responders earlier, leading to improvements in quality-adjusted life expectancy, as well as significant cost savings. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3245&r=mfd |
| By: | Sule Alan (University of Essex); Seda Ertac (Koc University) |
| Abstract: | We report results from the impact evaluation of a randomized educational intervention targeted at elementary school children. The program uses case studies, stories and classroom activities to improve the ability to imagine future selves, and emphasizes forward-looking behavior. We find that treated students make more patient intertemporal choices in incentivized experimental tasks. The effect is stronger for students who are identified as present-biased in the baseline. Furthermore, using official administrative records, we find that treated children are significantly less likely to receive a low "behavioral grade". These results are persistent one year after the intervention, replicate well in a different sample, and are robust across different experimental elicitation methods. |
| Keywords: | intertemporal choice, randomized field experiments, non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | C93 D91 I28 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2015-003&r=mfd |
| By: | Loaiza, Osmar; Muñetón, Guberney; Vanegas, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between poverty and armed conflict in Antioquia, Colombia. The poverty analysis is framed within Sen’s capability approach, which forms the conceptual basis of the multidimensional poverty index (Alkire and Foster, 2011). The MPI is measured with data from a government database called SISBEN, used to target social assistance programs, while the armed conflict is measured through count data about violent events during the period 1996-2010 on each municipality. The possible existence of a relationship between poverty and armed conflict is analyzed through exploratory and nonparametric methods. The results so far suggest that the MPI is robust to the multidimensional cut off. Also, they show that those areas more affected by conflict usually showcase high levels of multidimensional poverty |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Poverty, capability approach, exploratory and non-parametric methods, armed conflict. |
| JEL: | I32 O1 |
| Date: | 2014–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62462&r=mfd |
| By: | Fernando Alvarez (University of Chicago and NBER); Francesco Lippi (University of Sassari and EIEF) |
| Abstract: | We present a model that characterizes the relationship between optimal dynamic cash management and the choice of the means of payment. The novel feature of the model is the sequential nature of the payments choice. In each instant the agent can choose to pay with either cash or credit. This framework predicts that the current level of the stock of cash determines whether the agent uses cash or credit. Cash is used whenever the agent has enough of it, credit is used when cash holdings are low, a pattern recently documented by households data from several countries. The average level of cash and the average share of expenditures paid in cash depend on the opportunity cost of cash relative to the cost of credit. The model produces a rich set of over-identifying restrictions for consumers’ cash-management and payment choices which can be tested using recent households survey and diary data. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eie:wpaper:1502&r=mfd |
| By: | Jhonatan Pérez; Carlos León; Ricardo Mariño |
| Abstract: | Con base en las métricas propias utilizadas para el análisis de redes complejas e información transaccional, este trabajo permite realizar una caracterización del mercado spot peso/dólar y forward peso/dólar colombiano. En particular, es posible establecer que estos pueden ser catalogados como redes de estructura jerárquica donde un reducido grupo de Intermediarios del Mercado Cambiario centrales (periféricas) poseen una gran (pequeña) porción tanto del número de transacciones como del monto promedio negociado. Dichos resultados sugieren que ambos mercados: (i) son robustos ante la extracción aleatoria de participantes; (ii) son frágiles ante la extracción determinística de participantes centrales; y (iii) la mejor manera de “inmunizar” (i.e. la intensidad de la regulación, supervisión y seguimiento) de manera óptima los mercados es enfocarse en los participantes centrales. Adicionalmente, este trabajo resalta el papel que tiene la infraestructura financiera del país como generador de información estandarizada y confiable de mercado, la cual puede ser considerada como insumo en la toma de decisiones que involucran a las entidades involucradas en las funciones de la regulación, supervisión y seguimiento de los mercados financieros. Classification JEL: D85, G2, E42. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:867&r=mfd |
| By: | Kowalik, Michal |
| Keywords: | Banking; Liquidity; Interbank markets; Secondary markets |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2014–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp14-18&r=mfd |
| By: | Koudijs, Peter (Stanford University); Voth, Hans-Joachim (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Using unique archival data on collateralized lending, we show that personal experience can affect individual risk-taking and aggregate leverage. When an investor syndicate speculating in Amsterdam in 1772 went bankrupt, many lenders were exposed. In the end, none of them actually lost money. Nonetheless, only those at risk of losing money changed their behavior markedly--they lent with much higher haircuts. The rest continued as before. The differential change is remarkable since the distress was public knowledge. Overall leverage in the Amsterdam stock market declined as a result. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3103&r=mfd |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Nico Katzke (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we test whether the key metals prices of gold and platinum significantly improve infl ation forecasts for the South African economy. We also test whether controlling for conditional correlations in a dynamic setup, using bivariate Bayesian-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (B-DCC) models, improves infl ation forecasts. To achieve this we compare out-of-sample forecast estimates of the B-DCC model to RandomWalk, Autoregressive and Bayesian VAR models. We find that for both the BVAR and BDCC models, improving point forecasts of the Autoregressive model of in flation remains an elusive exercise. This, we argue, is of less importance relative to the more informative density forecasts. For this we find improved forecasts of infl ation for the B-DCC models at all forecasting horizons tested. We thus conclude that including metals price series as inputs to infl ation models leads to improved density forecasts, while controlling for the dynamic relationship between the included price series and in flation similarly leads to significantly improved density forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR, Dynamic Conditional Correlation, Density forecasting, Random Walk, Autoregressive model |
| JEL: | C11 C15 E17 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201510&r=mfd |
| By: | Parida, Jajati Keshari; Mohanty, Sanjay K. |
| Abstract: | Using the unit data from the National Sample Survey (64th round, 2007-08), this paper examine the effect of remittances on the marginal spending behavior of households in India. Majority of the households reported that they spent remittances on food items, clothing bedding and foot wears, healthcare and educating the household members and on durable goods etc. The share of expenditure on difference heads with respect to receipts of remittance, however, suggests that households receiving remittances spend 2 per cent less at the margin on food articles compared to households those who do not receive remittances. Further, households receiving remittances spend more at the margin on education (12 per cent), clothing and bedding & foot wears (1.5 per cent) and durable consumer goods (6 per cent), compared to those who do not receive any remittance. These findings support the theoretical argument that remittances help to increase the level of investment in human and physical capital and play an important role in raising the standard of living of the households. |
| Keywords: | Remittance and Households Expenditure |
| JEL: | R2 R23 |
| Date: | 2013–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62395&r=mfd |
| By: | Raúl A. Cardona Montoya; Marisol Gil Henao; Jhon W. Ochoa Flórez |
| Abstract: | In Colombia has been infrequent of registration in the financial statements of deferred tax, despite the obligation as a mechanism for allocation and recognition of tax, established in decrees 2649 and 2650 of 1993 and affects the results, actual allocation of profits and future cash flows; however, this is expected to change from the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards. The aim of the study is to determine the impact it will have on the organizations implementing the international standard IAS 12 Income Taxes, originated in the category of property, plant and equipment. To achieve this, it starts with an identification of the current accounting model under Colombian norm Deferred tax is compared with standard or international standard, seeking to determine the conceptual and measurement differences; two real cases are taken and the tax calculation under the guidelines of IAS 12 is performed. One of the main expected and was validated in this analysis by the adoption of IFRS in intensive companies in fixed assets, effects is the negative impact on shareholders' equity for the determination of deferred taxes, which arises from applying the tax on temporary differences of assets and liabilities measured for accounting and tax purposes rates. ****** En Colombia ha sido poco frecuente el registro en los estados financieros del impuesto diferido, a pesar de la obligatoriedad como mecanismo de asignación y reconocimiento de impuestos, establecida en los decretos 2649 y 2650 de 1993 y que incide en los resultados, asignación real de utilidades y flujos de caja futuros; sin embargo, se espera que esto cambie a partir de la adopción de las Normas Internacionales de Información Financiera. El objetivo del trabajo es determinar el impacto que tendrá en las organizaciones la aplicación de la norma internacional NIC 12 en lo referente al impuesto a las ganancias e impuesto diferido, originado en el rubro de propiedades, planta y equipo. Para lograrlo, se inicia con una identificación del modelo contable actual bajo norma colombiana, se compara con el estándar o norma internacional, y se determinan las diferencias conceptuales y de medición y se analizan dos casos reales, para calcular impactos del impuesto bajo los lineamientos de la NIC 12 y otros resultados. Uno de los principales efectos esperados y que fue validado en el presente análisis por la adopción de las NIIF, en las compañías intensivas en activos fijos, es el impacto negativo al patrimonio de los accionistas por la determinación del impuesto diferido, el cual surge de aplicar las tasas impositivas a las diferencias temporales de los activos y pasivos medidos para fines contables y tributarios. |
| Keywords: | NIIF plenas; Impuesto Diferido-ID; Valor razonable; Diferencia Temporaria; Impuesto a las Ganancias |
| JEL: | M4 M41 |
| Date: | 2014–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:012581&r=mfd |
| By: | Usman Mustafa (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Iftikhar Ahmad (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Miraj ul Haq (Azad Jammu and Kashmir University, AJK, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | A dignified and healthy life remains a distant nightmare to the large majority of population in developing countries including Pakistan. Large masses living in this world particularly South Asian country (that is home to over one fifth of the world’s population) is still striving for it. Pakistan, being a developing country, is no exclusion to that state. The condition of sanitation and solid waste management (SWM) in the country carriages a grave challenge to health and hygiene. This study was carried out to show at the household’s HHs) demand for improved environmental settings over valuing their willingness to pay (WTP) for better SWM facilities. The study follows contingent valuation method for assessing the HHs preferences for better living standards. Primary data used in the research was gathered with the application of tailor made questionnaire from both rural and urban regions of district Abbottabad, Pakistan at HHs premises. The objective was to discover the determinants of HH’s WTP for improved environment through better SWM services; the binomial logit regression method was used. Education, income, awareness, location and HH size were found to be influencing HH’s WTP. The study concluded that HHs were WTP, if adequate services were delivered to them. |
| Keywords: | Contingent Valuation Method, Binomial Logit Regression, Willingness to Pay, Solid Waste Management, Environment, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2014:110&r=mfd |
| By: | Victor Lavy |
| Abstract: | The long term effect of teachers’ pay for performance is of particular interest, as critics of these schemes claim that they encourage teaching to the test or orchestrated cheating by teachers and schools. In this paper, I address these concerns by examining the effect of teachers’ pay for performance on long term human capital outcomes, in particular attainment and quality of higher education, and labor market outcomes at adulthood, in particular employment and earnings. I base this study on an experiment conducted a decade and a half ago in Israel and present evidence that the pay for performance scheme increased a wide range of long run human capital measures. Treated students are 4.3 percentage points more likely to enroll in a university and to complete an additional 0.17 years of university schooling, a 60 percent increase relative to the control group mean. These gains are mediated by overall improvements in the high school matriculation outcomes due to the teachers’ intervention at 12th grade. The pay scheme led also to a significant 7 percent increase in annual earnings, to a 2 percent reduction in claims for unemployment benefits, and a 1 percent decline in eligibility for the government disability payment. |
| JEL: | J24 J3 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20983&r=mfd |
| By: | Cremer, Helmuth; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie; Maldonado, Dario; Roeder, Kerstin |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the design of couples’ income taxation when consumption and labor supply decisions within the couple are made by maximizing a weighted sum of the spouses’ utilities; bargaining weights are given but specific to each couple. Information structure and labor supply decisions follow the Mirrleesian tradition. However, while the household’s total consumption is publicly observable, the consumption levels of the individual spouses are not observable. With a utilitarian social welfare function we show that the expression for a spouses’ marginal income tax rate includes a “Pigouvian” (paternalistic) and an incentive term. The Pigouvian term favors a marginal subsidy (tax) for the high-weight (low-weight) spouse, whose labor supply otherwise tends to be too low (high). The sign and the magnitude of the incentive term depends on the weight structure across couples. In some cases both terms have the same sign and imply a positive marginal tax for the low-weight spouse (who may be female) and a negative one for the high-weight spouse (possibly the male). This is at odds with the traditional Boskin and Sheshinski results. Our conclusions can easily be generalized to more egalitarian welfare functions. Finally, we present numerical simulations based on a calibrated specification of our model. The calculations confirm that the male spouse may well have the lower (and possibly even negative) marginal tax rate. |
| Keywords: | Couples’ income taxation, household bargaining, optimal income taxation, household labor supply. |
| JEL: | D10 H21 H31 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:29000&r=mfd |
| By: | Nie, Jun (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City); Luo, Yulei; Wang, Gaowang; Young, Eric R. |
| Abstract: | This paper derives the general equilibrium effects of rational inattention (or RI; Sims 2003,2010) in a model of incomplete income insurance (Huggett 1993, Wang 2003). We show that,under the assumption of CARA utility with Gaussian shocks, the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) arises in steady state equilibrium due to a balancing of precautionary savings and impatience. We then explore how RI affects the equilibrium joint dynamics of consumption, income and wealth, and find that elastic attention can make the model fit the data better. We finally show that the welfare costs of incomplete information are even smaller due to general equilibrium adjustments in interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Rational inattention; Permanent income hypothesis; General equilibrium; Consumption and income volatility. |
| JEL: | C61 D83 E21 |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp14-14&r=mfd |
| By: | Brice Corgnet (Chapman University); Roberto Hernán-González (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Despite its central role in the theory of incentives, empirical evidence of a tradeoff between risk and incentives remains scarce. We reexamine this empirical puzzle in a controlled laboratory environment so as to isolate possible confounding factors encountered in the field. In line with the principal-agent model, we find that principals increase fixed pay while lowering performance pay when the relationship between effort and output is noisier. Unexpectedly, agents produce substantially more in the noisy environment than in the baseline despite lesser pay for performance. We show that this result can be accounted for by introducing agents’ loss aversion in the principal-agent model. Our findings call for an extension of standard agency models and for a reassessment of apparently inefficient management practices. |
| Keywords: | Principal-agent models, incentive theory, loss aversion, laboratory experiments |
| JEL: | C92 D23 D86 M54 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:15-05&r=mfd |
| By: | Maheu, John M; Yang, Qiao |
| Abstract: | The time-series dynamics of short-term interest rates are important as they are a key input into pricing models of the term structure of interest rates. In this paper we extend popular discrete time short-rate models to include Markov switching of infinite dimension. This is a Bayesian nonparametric model that allows for changes in the unknown conditional distribution over time. Applied to weekly U.S. data we find significant parameter change over time and strong evidence of non-Gaussian conditional distributions. Our new model with an hierarchical prior provides significant improvements in density forecasts as well as point forecasts. We find evidence of recurring regimes as well as structural breaks in the empirical application. |
| Keywords: | hierarchical Dirichlet process prior, beam sampling, Markov switching, MCMC |
| JEL: | C11 C14 C22 C58 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62408&r=mfd |
| By: | Katherina Kuschel (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo) |
| Abstract: | What are the current critical gaps in the work-family (WF) field that may have potential for future research opportunities? This comprehensive review presents a synthesis and critique of the evolution of the existing WF literature from 1985 to the present, emphasizing papers since 2005 in order to highlight the gaps and limitations in current research. Our study classifies the current research into five broad themes: (1) definitions, (2) theories, (3) antecedents and outcomes of WF conflict and enrichment, (4) WF policies, and (5) methodological approaches. Future research opportunities in the field include a deeper understanding on how to cope effectively when WF conflict, how to achieve WF enrichment, how do different type of employees experience the WF interface, and how can researchers address methodological problems (causality, endogeneity, simultaneity, effect size and self-selection bias) to better handle the complexity of WF issues. |
| Keywords: | Work family balance, Literature Review |
| JEL: | M12 M14 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dsr:wpaper:06&r=mfd |
| By: | Karelys Guzmán-Finol |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de esta investigación es identificar los factores que habrían influido en los cambios de la productividad hospitalaria estimados por Orozco (2014) para el periodo 2003-2011. Para esto se analizarán los casos de cuatro hospitales públicos que experimentaron los cambios de mayor y menor magnitud. Estos son: el Hospital Santander Herrera de Pivijay (Magdalena), el Hospital Departamental San Antonio de Roldanillo (Valle del Cauca), ambos de nivel II; el Hospital Santo Tomás de Villanueva (La Guajira) y el Hospital de Usaquén (Bogotá), de nivel I. Como resultado de las entrevistas y la revisión de los datos registrados en el Sistema de Información Hospitalaria (SIHO) se encontró que la alta rotación del personal, los problemas de cartera, la dificultad que han tenido los hospitales de nivel II para encontrar médicos especialistas, el conflicto armado y la baja inversión son los principales factores que pudieron afectar este cambio. ******ABSTRACT: The objective of this research is to identify the factors that may have produced changes in the productivity of the hospitals estimated by Orozco (2014) for the period 2003-2011. To this end, four public hospitals that experienced the greatest and the smallest changes were analyzed, namely: Hospital Santander Herrera de Pivijay, the Hospital Departamental San Antonio de Roldanillo, both of level II; the Hospital Santo Tomás de Villanueva and the Hospital de Usaquén, of level I. As a result of the interviews and the analysis of the data obtained from the Hospital Information System (SIHO), the main factors that have been found to possibly contribute to the change in productivityare: the high turnover of staff, the borrowing portfolio problems, the difficulty that level II hospitals have had to find specialists, the armed conflict and the low investment in the hospitals. |
| Keywords: | productividad, eficiencia, hospital público, estudio de caso |
| JEL: | H4 H7 I1 I3 |
| Date: | 2015–02–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000102:012584&r=mfd |
| By: | Desmet, Klaus; Ortuño-Ortín, Ignacio; Wacziarg, Romain |
| Abstract: | We investigate the empirical relationship between ethnicity and culture, defined as a vector of traits reflecting norms, attitudes and preferences. Using surveys of individual values in 76 countries, we find that ethnic identity is a significant predictor of cultural values, yet that within-group variation in culture trumps between-group variation. Thus, in contrast to a commonly held view, ethnic and cultural diversity are unrelated. We explore the correlates of cultural diversity and of the overlap between culture and ethnicity, finding that the level of economic development is positively associated with cultural diversity and negatively associated with the overlap between culture and ethnicity. Finally, although only a small portion of a country's overall cultural heterogeneity occurs between groups, this does not imply that cultural differences between groups are irrelevant. Indeed, we find that civil conflict becomes more likely when there is greater overlap between ethnicity and culture. |
| Keywords: | between-group diversity; civil conflict; cultural fractionalization; cultural traits; culture; ethnicity; heterogeneity; identity; social norms; within-group diversity |
| JEL: | D74 J15 P48 Z10 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10451&r=mfd |
| By: | Gardete, Pedro M. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the in-flight marketplace. It uses detailed data of inflight purchases to understand social effects in purchase behavior, and determine their potential for designing marketing promotions. We find that on average a passenger is approximately 30% more likely to buy after being exposed to a lateral purchase. Analyses on the underlying mechanisms reveal that the classical social influence theories do not suffice to explain all the patterns in the data. Omission neglect, product contagion and goal balancing are proposed as complementary theories. Finally, we find that consumers' willingness-to-buy is positively correlated with responsiveness to social influence. Because of this homophily and social feedback effects, classically seen as nuisances, can provide targeting value for the firm. Taking them into account in behavioral-based targeting can up to double the social spillovers of marketing actions. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3134&r=mfd |
| By: | Asad Zaman (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | The paper shows that fundamental Islamic principles regarding organisation of economic affairs are directly and strongly in conflict with teachings of conventional economic theories. |
| Keywords: | Islam and Economics, Economics and Religion |
| JEL: | A13 Z12 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2014:113&r=mfd |
| By: | David Neumark (University of California, Irvine); Helen Simpson (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Place-based policies commonly target underperforming areas, such as deteriorating downtown business districts and disadvantaged regions. Principal examples include enterprise zones, European Union Structural Funds, and industrial cluster policies. Place-based policies are rationalized by various hypotheses in urban and labor economics, such as agglomeration economies and spatial mismatch – hypotheses that entail market failures and often predict overlap between poor economic performance and disadvantaged residents. The evidence on enterprise zones is very mixed. We need to know more about what features of enterprise zone policies make them more effective or less effective, who gains and who loses from these policies, and how we can reconcile the existing findings. Some evidence points to positive benefits of infrastructure expenditure, and also investment in higher education and university research – likely because of the public-goods nature of these policies. However, to better guide policy, we need to know more about what policies create self-sustaining longer-run gains. |
| Keywords: | place-based policies, employment, enterprise zones, discretionary grants, higher education, industrial clusters, infrastructure |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1410&r=mfd |
| By: | Juan Mendoza; Andrés Rosas |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of the three-point rule on the average number of goals scored per match and the prevalence of ties in Argentine professional soccer. We review the existing theoretical models to analyze the impact of the three-point rule on the offensive and defensive strategies of a team and on average scoring. We then use a dataset of more than 3,500 observations. We exploit the variability in the application of the three-point rule in the Argentine league. In particular, we take advantage of the fact that the three-point rule was not effectively employed in the construction of the ranking used to decide which teams will be relegated to the second-division tournament. Indeed, we use the teams facing relegation as our control group, and the other teams, not facing relegation, as our treatment group. Our identifying assumption is that the behavior of teams in risk of relegation continued to be governed by the two-point rule and was not influenced by the three-point rule. We include fixed effects for each team in each tournament and control for the quality of the rival.. Our results indicate that the three-point rule had a statistically-significant negative effect on the number of goals scored while increasing the prevalence of ties. We relate our findings to the existing literature and draw some preliminary conclusions. |
| Keywords: | Soccer, Three-Point Rule, Offensiveness, Defensiveness. |
| JEL: | J4 J63 L83 |
| Date: | 2015–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000416:012586&r=mfd |
| By: | Greg Fischer; Dean Karlan |
| Abstract: | We document the presence of multiple and varied constraints to small and medium firm growth. This presents both a practical problem for business training programs and a challenge to academic economists trying to identify mechanisms though which these programs may affect outcomes. External validity needs theory. This pushes researchers to narrowly defined and highly selected sample frames, which limits the potential for clear, generalizable policy prescriptions. Ultimately, larger samples, multi-arm evaluations, process documentation, and narrowly-focused, theory-supported empirical work are all needed, but the complexity of the problem limits what we learn from any single study. |
| JEL: | M1 O1 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20971&r=mfd |
| By: | Chiaki Hara (Professor, Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University); Kenjiro Hirata (Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Kobe International University) |
| Abstract: | We formulate the pension fund's problem of choosing optimal pension schemes in an inflnite, discrete-time setting as a sequence of Nash bargaining problems in which the members (contributors) of the fund are the bargainers and the disagreement points are determined by the utility levels they can attain by quitting and receiving lump-sum payments from the fund. We show that if the members are heterogeneous in their subjective time discount rates, then the sequence of the Nash bargaining solutions, obtained at each point in time, leads to an inefficient allocation of consumption processes, thereby indicating a source of dynamic inconsistency in pension fund management. Based on a set of micro data, we show the welfare loss of dynamic inconsistency can be as high as 14% of the members' total wealth, and the dynamically inconsistent choices of pension schemes tend to favor myopic members. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:916&r=mfd |
| By: | Charles E McLure (Stanford University); Jack Mintz (University of Calgary); George R. Zodrow (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | In a recent unanimous decision in the PPL case, the US Supreme Court ruled that a one-timeretroactive British “Windfall Tax” levied on 32 public utilities that were privatised between 1984 and 1996 was eligible for the US foreign tax credit (FTC). The Court rejected the contention of the US Internal Revenue Service that eligibility for the FTC should be governed by the legislative form of the tax rather than its economic substance. This decision could have farreaching implications for the creditability of taxes that are not ordinarily thought to be income taxes, including various cash-flow business taxes that are key elements of several proposals recommending replacement of the income tax with a consumption-based tax. This article examines these issues, arguing that one and arguably both of the most common forms of cash flow consumption-based taxes should be creditable; it also discusses questions that remain about the interpretation of key regulatory requirements that govern creditability. |
| Keywords: | US Supreme Court PPL decision, windfall profits tax, foreign tax credit, cash flow tax, rent tax |
| JEL: | H25 H8 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1411&r=mfd |
| By: | Flaviana Palmisano (Università di Bari); Vito Peragine (Università di Bari) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a normative framework for the assessment of the distributional inci- dence of growth. By removing the anonymity axiom, such framework is able to evaluate the individual income changes over time and the reshuffling of individuals along the income distri- bution that are determined by the pattern of income growth. We adopt a rank dependent social welfare function expressed in terms of initial rank and individual income change and we ob- tain partial and complete dominance conditions over different growth paths. These dominance conditions account for the different components determining the overall impact of growth, that is the size of growth and its vertical and horizontal incidence. We then provide an empirical application for Italy: this analysis shows the distributional impact of the recent economic crisis suffered by the Italian population. |
| Keywords: | growth, pro-poor, inequality, income mobility, social welfare |
| JEL: | D31 D63 D71 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:22&r=mfd |
| By: | Lee, Dokyun (University of PA); Hosanagar, Kartik (University of PA); Nair, Harikesh S. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of social media content on customer engagement using a large-scale field study on Facebook. We content-code more than 100,000 unique messages across 800 companies engaging with users on Facebook using a combination of Amazon Mechanical Turk and state-of-the-art Natural Language Processing algorithms. We use this large-scale database of content attributes to test the effect of social media marketing content on subsequent user engagement--defined as Likes and comments--with the messages. We develop methods to account for potential selection biases that arise from Facebook's filtering algorithm, EdgeRank, that assigns messages non-randomly to users. We find that inclusion of persuasive content--like emotional and philanthropic content--increases engagement with a message. We find that informative content--like mentions of prices, availability, and product features--reduce engagement when included in messages in isolation, but increase engagement when provided in combination with persuasive attributes. Persuasive content thus seems to be the key to effective engagement. Our results inform content design strategies in social media, and the methodology we develop to content-code large-scale textual data provides a framework for future studies on unstructured natural language data such as advertising content or product reviews. |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3087&r=mfd |
| By: | George, Emmanuel; Odejimi, Deborah; Matthews, Oluwatoyin; Ojeaga, Paul |
| Abstract: | Has macroeconomic management succeeded in making privatization promote growth in Africa? What are the probable strategies that should accompany the privatization reform process to promote growth in Africa? To what extent has the privatization process succeeded in attracting foreign direct investment to Africa? The study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic management and privatization. Many African countries have embarked on one form of privatization reform or the other since 1980 as one of the stringent conditions for accessing capital from the IMF and the World Bank. Secondly globalization and the gradually integration of the African economy into the global economy also means that Africa has to strategically develop its domestic market to cushion itself from fluctuations and probable contagion associated with global economic crisis that are always inevitable Stiglitz (2000) and Ojeaga P. (2012). The methods of estimation used are the OLS, linear mixed effects (LME), 2SLS and the GMM method of estimation. It was found that macroeconomic management has the capacity to affect the success of the privatization reform process. It was also found that privatization was not promoting growth in Africa; privatization could promote growth if long run growth strategies are implemented together with the privatization reform process. Privatization was also found not to have the capacity to attract foreign investment to many African countries. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Political Economy, Game Theory, Macroeconomic Management and Privatization |
| JEL: | C23 C72 E61 E62 F42 G22 H5 O11 O23 |
| Date: | 2013–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62211&r=mfd |
| By: | Étienne Farvaque; Martial Foucault; Marcelin Joanis |
| Abstract: | Ce rapport fait le point sur la question des règles budgétaires, qui occupe une place centrale dans les débats de politiques publiques sur la résorption éventuelle des déficits hérités de la Grande Récession. Dans une première partie, nous exposons les grands débats théoriques relatifs aux règles budgétaires. Dans une seconde partie, nous définissons une nomenclature des règles budgétaires en vigueur dans les provinces canadiennes. La nomenclature proposée est plus fine que celle existant dans la littérature, et elle se fonde sur les travaux récents menés sur les États américains. Le menu des options de politiques publiques disponibles dans le contexte canadien est enfin évalué, afin d’examiner les performances relatives des diverses règles existantes. La dernière partie propose une analyse économétrique de l’effet de la sévérité des règles sur les finances publiques des 10 provinces canadiennes sur la période 1980-2012. Parmi les résultats significatifs, il est confirmé que l’existence de règles contraignantes réduit substantiellement le niveau de dette nette tout en contrôlant pour les facteurs socio-économiques et politiques susceptibles d’affecter le niveau de dette par ailleurs. |
| Keywords: | , endettement, règles budgétaires |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-10&r=mfd |
| By: | Rita de la Feria (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | Within Europe differentiated rates structures date back to the introduction of VAT itself. Evidence as regards the negative consequences of applying multiple rates has been apparent for some decades. In this context, since the late 1980s, there have been several attempts to amend European rates structures under the political guidance of the European Commission. However, the most recent agreed upon amendments to the rates structure have increased the level of differentiation, rather than decreased it, with more goods and services being subject to reduced rates in Europe today than even as recently as ten years ago. This reality seems to be changing in the last few years. Since 2008 a staggering twenty-two of the twenty-eight EU Member State countries have increased their VAT rates, resulting in a broad convergence of VAT standard rates across the EU around the 21% mark. Furthermore, there has also been a decrease in levels of differentiation with a reduction in number of VAT rates applicable in many Member States, as well as various base broadening measures. The latest developments seem to indicate that conditions may be present which allow the reversal of the status quo bias, creating the opportunity for base broadening tax reform. This raises the possibility that European countries might engage in an involuntary process of convergence of VAT bases, fuelled by domestic necessities. A politically achievable blueprint for reform of VAT rate structures in European is presented, which would result in a broader-based, and thus more efficient and neutral, VAT. Moreover, application of this blueprint across EU Member States would have the additional advantage of resulting in further convergence of VAT rate structures in Europe, to replace the long-sought, but so far unattainable, EU harmonisation. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1413&r=mfd |
| By: | Ferrante, Francesco; Ruiu, Gabiele |
| Abstract: | Although there is still no consensus on the causes of large differences in income per capita across countries, a growing literature considers culturally-based beliefs and institutions as main drivers of the latter differences (Guiso et al. 2006; Tabellini 2010). The intuition is that institutions and beliefs affect the incentive to accumulate human and physical capital. Other strands of literature stress that the supply of entrepreneurship is a fundamental ingredient of economic growth and job creation. In this paper, we argue that the two views should be reconciled on the basis of the following arguments: a) occupational choices and the decision to accumulate human capital are affected by cultural and institutional factors; b) occupational choices are the main tool to allocate human capital within societies; c) entrepreneurs govern the allocation of resources in the economy, including the human resources. Confirming our hypothesis, our empirical analysis show that cultural factors matter and fatalism exerts a particularly negative effect on opportunity perception and on opportunity driven entrepreneurship. For what regards institutional variables, three interesting and somehow non conventional results emerge from the analysis. First, low start-up cost are particular favorable for necessity driven entrepreneurship but not for the opportunity driven ones. Second, labor market flexibility yields a lower probability of being an entrepreneur and this results holds for both necessity and opportunity driven entrepreneurs. Third, the more burdensome the administrative requirement (permits, regulations, reporting) in entrepreneurial activity, the lower the probability of being an opportunity driven entrepreneur. On the whole, our results yield some policy relevant implications: a) culturally-based beliefs matter for entrepreneurship and fatalism is more important than trust in others; b) education can affect people’s fatalism; c) entrepreneurial education can be an important tool for fostering good quality entrepreneurship, i.e. opportunity driven entrepreneurship; c) institutions matter for entrepreneurship and growth but, somehow, in unconventional ways. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, culture, fatalism, institutions |
| JEL: | E02 O43 L26 D83 M13 J20 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41915&r=mfd |
| By: | Jha, Saumitra (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | I examine how the historical legacies of inter-ethnic complementarity and competition interact with contemporary electoral competition in shaping patterns of ethnic violence. Using local comparisons within Gujarat, a single Indian state known for both its non-violent local traditions and for widespread ethnic pogroms in 2002, I provide evidence that where political competition was focused upon towns where ethnic groups have historically competed, there was a rise in the propensity for ethnic rioting and increased electoral support for the incumbent party complicit in the violence. However, where political competition was focused in towns that historically enjoyed inter-ethnic complementarities, there were fewer ethnic riots, and these towns also voted against the incumbent. These historic legacies proved to be important predictors of the identity of the winner even in very close electoral races. I argue that these results reflect the role local inter-ethnic economic relations can play in altering the nature and the benefits of political campaigns that encourage ethnic violence. |
| JEL: | F10 N25 O18 Z12 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:2144&r=mfd |
| By: | Isabelle Chort (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine); Maëlys de la Rupelle (THEMA, Université de Cergy-Pontoise) |
| Abstract: | (english) In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the regional patterns of Mexico-US migration flows. Along with traditional economic determinants, we examine the role played by environmental factors and violence in Mexico in determining migration patterns and their evolutions. We estimate a microgrounded gravity model of migration using a panel dataset of state-to-state emigration and return migration flows between Mexico and the US for the period 1995-2012. We exploit the time and dyadic dimension of the data to control for time-invariant and time-variant characteristics of destination states, including migration policies. Our results suggest that along with the traditional economic determinants of migration, climatic and social factors contribute to shaping regional migration patterns. _________________________________ (français) Nous étudions dans cet article les déterminants des tendances régionales des flux migratoires entre le Mexique et les Etats-Unis. A côté des déterminants économiques traditionnels des migrations, nous explorons le rôle de facteurs environnementaux et sociaux sur les caractéristiques et l’évolution des flux migratoires entre états. Nous estimons un modèle de gravité micro-fondé, à partir de données de panel sur les flux migratoires entrants et de retour entre états mexicains et états-uniens sur la période 1995-2012. Nous exploitons la dimension temporelle et dyadique de nos données pour contrôler pour les caractéristiques des états de destination susceptibles d’affecter les flux migratoires, notamment les changements de politiques migratoires. Nos résultats suggèrent que les facteurs sociaux et climatiques contribuent à expliquer les tendances régionales observées. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Mexico-U.S. migration, Gravity equation, Climate change, Natural disasters, Migration internationale, Mexique, Etats-Unis, Modèle de gravité, Changement climatique, Catastrophes naturelles. |
| JEL: | F22 J6 J68 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201503&r=mfd |
| By: | Amir Borges Ferreira Neto (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University) |
| Abstract: | This technical document describes how to set up a full Social Accounting Matrix from its own partition in a spreadsheet file. This is done using VBA code. |
| Keywords: | cge, sam, spreadsheet, excel, VBA |
| JEL: | C68 R13 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2014td05&r=mfd |
| By: | Bellemare, Marc F.; Masaki, Takaaki; Pepinsky, Thomas B. |
| Abstract: | Across the social sciences, lagged explanatory variables are a common strategy to confront challenges to causal identification using observational data. We show that "lag identification"--the use of lagged explanatory variables to solve endogeneity problems--is an illusion: lagging independent variables merely moves the channel through which endogeneity biases causal estimates, replacing a "selection on observables" assumption with an equally untestable "no dynamics among unobservables" assumption. We build our argument intuitively using directed acyclic graphs, then provide analytical results on the bias resulting from lag identification in a simple linear regression framework. We then present simulation results that characterize how, even under favorable conditions, lag identification leads to incorrect inferences. These findings have important implications for current practice among applied researchers in political science, economics, and related disciplines. We conclude by specifying the conditions under which lagged explanatory variables are appropriate for identifying causal effects. |
| Keywords: | Causal Identification, Treatment Effects, Lagged Variables |
| JEL: | C13 C15 C21 |
| Date: | 2015–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62350&r=mfd |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Claudia Olivetti (Boston University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Maternal mortality was the second largest cause of death for women in childbearing years up until the mid-1930s in the United States. For each death, twenty times as many mothers were estimated to suffer pregnancy related conditions, often leading to severe and prolonged disablement. Poor maternal health made it particularly hard for mothers to engage in market work. Between 1930 and 1960 there was a remarkable reduction in maternal mortality and morbidity. We argue that these medical advances, by enabling women to reconcile work and motherhood, were essential for the joint rise in married women's labor force participation and fertility over this period. We also show that the diffusion of infant formula played an important auxiliary role. |
| Keywords: | maternal mortality, female labor force participation, fertility, baby boom, human capital |
| JEL: | I15 J13 J22 N30 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2015-002&r=mfd |
| By: | Foellmi, Reto; Hanslin, Sandra; Kohler, Andreas |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a dynamic North-South general- equilibrium model where households have non-homothetic preferences. Innovation takes place in a rich North while firms in a poor South imitate products manufactured in North. Introducing non-homothetic preferences delivers a complete international product cycle as described by Vernon (1966), where the different stages of the product cycle are not only determined by supply side factors but also by the distribution of income between North and South. We ask how changes in Southern labor productivity, South's population size and inequality across regions affects the international product cycle. In line with presented stylized facts about the product cycle we predict a negative correlation between adoption time and per capita incomes. |
| Keywords: | inequality; international trade; product cycles |
| JEL: | F1 O3 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10452&r=mfd |
| By: | Nicolas Bouleau (CIRED, Ecole des Ponts-ParisTech); Christophe Chorro (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we consider some elementary and fair zero-sum games of chance to study the impact of random effects on the wealth distribution of N interacting players. Even if an exhaustive analytical study of such games between many players may be tricky, numerical experiments highlight interesting asymptotic properties. From a mathematical perspective, we interestingly recover for small and high-frequency transactions some diffusion limits extensively used in population genetics. Finally, the impact of small tax rates on the preceding dynamics is discussed for several regulation mechanisms |
| Keywords: | Fair zero-sum games; Wright-Fisher diffusions; Impact of tax rate |
| JEL: | C32 C63 D31 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:15024&r=mfd |
| By: | ARA Tomohiro |
| Abstract: | Why does the fraction of firms that export vary with countries' comparative advantage? To address this question, I develop a general-equilibrium Ricardian model of North-South trade in which both institutional quality and firm heterogeneity play a key role in determining international trade flows. Because of contractual frictions that vary across countries and sectors, North with better institutions produces and exports relatively more in sectors where production is more institutionally dependent. In addition, institution-induced comparative advantage makes it relatively easier for Northern heterogeneous firms to incur export costs in more contract-dependent sectors, thereby leading to a higher exporters' percentage. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:15023&r=mfd |
| By: | Mauro Marè (Tuscia University, Italy); Antonello Motroni (Mefop, Rome, Italy); Francesco Porcelli (University of Exeter, UK) |
| Abstract: | Nonostante le modifiche alle prestazioni previdenziali pubbliche e la crescente consapevolezza che in futuro sarà necessario integrare le pensioni statali con risorse aggiuntive accumulate durante la carriera lavorativa, l’attitudine dei lavoratori italiani nei confronti della previdenza integrativa rimane scarsamente favorevole. Partendo dai dati di due survey condotte presso un campione di lavoratori, il paper evidenzia come la scelta di adesione a previdenza complementare sia legata soprattutto a considerazioni di natura patrimoniale/reddituale, alla condizione lavorativa e al livello di fiducia nei confronti degli investimenti finanziari. I lavoratori con maggiore probabilità di adesione hanno già attivato altre forme di investimento mobiliare e immobiliare, dispongono di un reddito più elevato rispetto a quelli che non partecipano alla previdenza di secondo pilastro, sono iscritti a un sindacato e lavorano presso aziende del settore privato. Di contro, i lavoratori non sindacalizzati, con basse retribuzioni e ridotte capacità di risparmio hanno una minore probabilità di iscriversi a un fondo pensione. Si tratta, tuttavia, dei soggetti che, presumibilmente, avranno maggiore necessità di previdenza complementare a causa delle riforme approvate negli ultimi anni, sia sul versante pensionistico pubblico, sia in materia di diritto del lavoro. Le determinanti dell'adesione agli schemi di secondo pilastro rimangono stabili nel tempo, le recenti crisi finanziare non sembrano avere modificato nella sostanza il profilo degli iscritti ai fondi previdenziali integrativi. |
| Keywords: | Household savings, Investment choise, Institutional investors, Social security and public pension |
| JEL: | D14 G11 G23 H55 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:20&r=mfd |
| By: | Jason Abaluck; Jonathan Gruber; Ashley Swanson |
| Abstract: | Medicare Part D enrollees face a complicated decision problem: they must dynamically choose prescription drug consumption in each period given difficult- to-find prices and a non-linear budget set. We use Medicare Part D claims data from 2006-2009 to estimate a flexible model of consumption that accounts for non-linear budget sets, dynamic incentives due to myopia and uncertainty, and price salience. By using variation away from kink points, we are able to estimate structural models with a linear regression of consumption on coverage range prices. We then compare performance under several candidate models of expectations and coverage phase weighting. The estimates suggest small marginal price elasticities and substantial myopia; we also find evidence that salient plan characteristics impact consumption beyond their effect on out-of-pocket prices. A hyperbolic discounting model which allows for salient plan characteristics fits the data well, and outperforms both rational models and alternative behavioral models. |
| JEL: | D12 G22 I13 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20976&r=mfd |
| By: | Tanweer Akram; Anupam Das |
| Abstract: | John Maynard Keynes held that the central bank's actions determine long-term interest rates through short-term interest rates and various monetary policy measures. His conjectures about the determinants of long-term interest rates were made in the context of advanced capitalist economies, and were based on his views on ontological uncertainty and the formation of investors' expectations. Are these conjectures valid in emerging markets, such as India? This paper empirically investigates the determinants of changes in Indian government bonds' nominal yields. Changes in short-term interest rates, after controlling for other crucial variables such as changes in the rates of inflation and economic activity, take a lead role in driving changes in the nominal yields of Indian government bonds. This vindicates Keynes's theories, and suggests that his views on long-term interest rates are also applicable to emerging markets. Higher fiscal deficits do not appear to raise government bond yields in India. It is further argued that Keynes's conjectures about investors' outlooks, views, and expectations are fairly robust in a world of ontological uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Government Bond Yields; India; Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | E43 E50 E60 O16 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_834&r=mfd |
| By: | Daniela Del Boca |
| Abstract: | In this paper we review recent literature on the link between child care and women’s labor supply. The growing labor market participation of women has raised many concerns since it implies less time spent with the children and greater reliance on external forms of care. Focusing on studies examining the US, Canada and several European countries, we compare and discuss their methodologies and empirical results as well as their implications for child care policies. Most of the results suggest that the impact of child care availability and costs are stronger for mothers' labor supply among more disadvantaged backgrounds. Child care programs aimed at lower income and less educated families have important implications for EU targets on child poverty and mothers’ employment. |
| Keywords: | child care, household choices, mothers’ labor supply |
| JEL: | J13 I2 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1504&r=mfd |
| By: | Raphaël Jachnik; Randy Caruso; Aman Srivastava |
| Abstract: | Quantifying the effect of public interventions aimed at mobilising private finance for climate activities is technically complex and challenging. As a step towards addressing this complexity, the report presents a framework of key decision points for estimating publicly mobilised private finance. This framework outlines different methodological options and choices needed to make these estimates. It assesses trade-offs and implications of these choices in terms of their accuracy, the incentives they provide, their potential to be standardised across entities, and their practicality (data availability, expertise and resource demands). The report further identifies and suggests practical options available in the short-term for estimating mobilised private finance, while underlining the need to provide transparency about underlying definitions, assumptions and limitations. It also recommends longer-term actions to improve these methods, including the need to converge on definitions, to build data systems and to improve and standardise estimation methods.<P> The primary objective of this report is to inform the development of methods to measure in a transparent manner progress towards the fulfilment of the financial commitments made by developed countries in the context of international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It also aims to encourage careful examination of the links between public interventions and private climate finance. This is to ensure that methods to estimate mobilisation help encourage the efficiency and effectiveness of public interventions aimed at mobilising such finance. |
| Keywords: | climate change, measurement, mobilisation, public interventions, private finance, estimation |
| JEL: | F21 F53 G2 O16 O19 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2015–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:83-en&r=mfd |
| By: | Orhan Erdem; Gizem Turna; Yusuf Varli |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between trading behaviors of individual investors and their previous day portfolio return. We try to find which one of the following two contradicting biases dominates the investor behavior: Namely, overconfidence and disposition effect. In order to explore the direction of this relationship, daily transactions of individual investors who trade in Borsa Istanbul between 2008 and 2012 (five years) are analyzed according to several variables such as portfolio size, gender, and age. To do this, we measure buying appetite with the widely used ‘buy-sell imbalance’ which is the ratio of net buying value to the total trading value of investors. Then we explore whether there is a relationship between buying appetite and the previous day portfolio return. The main finding is that there is a strong evidence on the dominance of disposition effect and buying appetite is found to be significantly smaller when the portfolio return increases. The other findings re as follows: (1) Large individual investors (individuals with high portfolio size) have higher buying appetite than that of small investors independent from portfolio returns. (2) Gender has a significant influence on the buying appetite. Male investors have higher buying appetite than their female counterparts. (3) The age and buying appetite are negatively correlated. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral Finance, Overconfidence, Disposition Effect, Buy-Sell Imbalance, Loss Aversion, Portfolio Size Effect, Gender Effect, Age Effect. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bor:wpaper:1421&r=mfd |
| By: | Raúl Armando Cardona Montoya; Carolina Huertas Garcés; Carolina Santa Giraldo; Edwin Andrés Jiménez Echeverri |
| Abstract: | The research presented here proposes the adoption of private capital funds as an innovative alternative for financing large projects in the farming sector, focusing on late yield crops due to the fact that these crops require significant investments and do not generate cash flow during the first years to cover the financing charges under traditional financing practices. As a particular case, a proposal for Hass avocado financing with a private capital fund in Colombia is analyzed, taking into account the specific conditions for its production in appropriate regions and taking advantage of the incentives and fiscal benefits that can be obtained. ****** La investigación propone la adopción de los fondos de capital privado como una alternativa innovadora para financiar grandes proyectos en el sector agropecuario, con enfoque en los cultivos de tardío rendimiento debido a que estos requieren inversiones significativas y durante los primeros años no generan flujos de caja para cubrir los servicios de la deuda bajo las líneas de financiación tradicionales. Como caso particular se analiza la propuesta de financiar el cultivo de aguacate Hass con un fondo de capital privado en Colombia, teniendo en cuenta las condiciones específicas para su producción en las regiones aptas y el aprovechamiento de los incentivos y los beneficios fiscales a los cuales se puede acceder. |
| Keywords: | Financiación; fondo de capital privado; sector agropecuario;aguacate Hass |
| JEL: | G24 |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000122:012579&r=mfd |
| By: | Goodridge, PR |
| Date: | 2015–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imp:wpaper:19156&r=mfd |
| By: | Dirksmeyer, Walter (Ed.); Theuvsen, Ludwig (Ed.); Kayser, Maike (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | [Vorwort] Das 1. Symposium für Ökonomie im Gartenbau fand am 27. November 2013 in der Paulinerkirche in Göttingen statt. Es wurde als Kooperation der Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, des Thünen- Instituts für Betriebswirtschaft und des Agrarkompetenznetzes WeGa durchgeführt. Die Veranstaltung erfreute sich eines regen Interesses. Dies gilt mit Blick sowohl auf die Referentinnen und Referenten als auch auf die Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmer. Als Zielgruppe des Symposiums war nicht nur die Wissenschaft angesprochen, sondern auch die Beratung, die Anbaupraxis, die Verwaltung und die Politik. Vertreterinnen und Vertreter aller genannten Gruppen nahmen an der Tagung teil. In zwei parallelen Sessions wurden bei dem Symposium insgesamt 20 angemeldete Vorträge gehalten. Überwiegend von Nachwuchswissenschaftlerinnen und Nachwuchswissenschaftlern wurden (Zwischen-)Ergebnisse aus Promotionsvorhaben und anderen Forschungsprojekten vorgestellt. Zusätzlich hielten Frau Prof. Dr. Vera Bitsch von der Technischen Universität München und Herr Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Bokelmann von der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Plenarvorträge. Die Summe aller Vorträge auf der Tagung bildete die Breite der gartenbauökonomischen Forschung in Deutschland sehr gut ab. Sie finden das Programm des Symposiums im Anhang. [...] |
| Abstract: | The 1. Symposium of Economics in Horticulture took place at the 27th of November 2013 in Paulinerkirche in Göttingen, Germany. It was organised by the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, the Thünen Institute of Farm Economics, and the agricultural excellence cluster WeGa. The large number of speakers and a large audience from a wide range of institutions revealed a great interest in economic research against the backdrop of horticulture. The symposium targeted not only at research but also at farm management, advisory service, administration, and policy. In two parallel sessions twenty presentations were given. Mainly young scientists presented results from PhD and other projects revealing the wide range of topics horticultural economists deal with in Germany. Additionally to that two plenary speakers were invited. Prof. Dr. Vera Bitsch from Technische Universität München identified challenges of sustainable value chains in horticulture. Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Bokelmann from Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin discussed agricultural and horticultural knowledge systems. This Thünen Report presents twenty symposium papers including those of the keynote speakers. Although most of the papers are written in German language, four are in English. |
| Keywords: | horticultural economics,farm economics,supply and demand,profitability,fruits,vegetables,supply chain,sustainability |
| JEL: | C88 D12 D83 J24 J28 M11 M14 M21 M41 O15 O32 O33 Q00 Q10 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q16 Q17 Q42 Q54 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtire:22&r=mfd |
| By: | Kathrin Glau |
| Abstract: | The challenge to fruitfully merge state-of-the-art techniques from mathematical finance and numerical analysis has inspired researchers to develop fast deterministic option pricing methods. As a result, highly efficient algorithms to compute option prices in L\'evy models by solving partial integro differential equations have been developed. In order to provide a solid mathematical foundation for these methods, we derive a Feynman-Kac representation of variational solutions to partial integro differential equations that characterize conditional expectations of functionals of killed time-inhomogeneous L\'evy processes. We allow for a wide range of underlying stochastic processes, comprising processes with Brownian part, and a broad class of pure jump processes such as generalized hyperbolic, multivariate normal inverse Gaussian, tempered stable, and $\alpha$-semi stable L\'evy processes. By virtue of our mild regularity assumptions as to the killing rate and the initial condition of the partial differential equation, our results provide a rigorous basis for numerous applications, not only in financial mathematics but also in probability theory and relativistic quantum mechanics. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1502.07531&r=mfd |
| By: | Lee, Charles M. C. (Stanford University); Ma, Paul (?); Wang, Charles C. Y. (?) |
| Abstract: | Applying a "co-search" algorithm to Internet traffic at the SEC's EDGAR website, we develop a novel method for identifying economically-related peer firms. Our results show that firms appearing in chronologically adjacent searches by the same individual (Search Based Peers or SBPs) are fundamentally similar on multiple dimensions. In direct tests, SBPs dominate GICS6 industry peers in explaining cross-sectional variations in base firms' out-of-sample: (a) stock returns, (b) valuation multiples, (c) growth rates, (d) R&D expenditures, (e) leverage, and (f) profitability ratios. We show that SBPs are not constrained by standard industry classification, and are more dynamic, pliable, and concentrated. Our results highlight the potential of the collective wisdom of investors--extracted from co-search patterns--in addressing long-standing benchmarking problems in finance. |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3062&r=mfd |
| By: | Luigi Bocola (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the aggregate implications of sovereign credit risk in a business cycle model in which banks are exposed to risky government debt. An increase in the probability of a future sovereign default leads to a reduction in credit to firms because of two channels. First, it lowers the value of government debt on the balance sheet of banks, tightening their funding constraints and leaving them with fewer resources to lend to firms. Second, it raises the required premia demanded by banks for lending to firms because this activity has become riskier: if the sovereign default occurs, the economy falls in a major recession and claims to the productive sector pay out little. I estimate the nonlinear model with Italian data using Bayesian techniques. I find that sovereign credit risk led to a rise in the financing premia of firms that peaked 100 basis points, and cumulative output losses of 4.75% by the end of 2011. Both channels were quantitatively important drivers of the propagation of sovereign credit risk to the real economy. I then use the model to evaluate the effects of subsidized long term loans to banks, calibrated to the ECB's Longer Term Refinancing Operations. The presence of a significant risk channel at the policy enactment explains the limited stimulative effects of these interventions. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1286&r=mfd |
| By: | Brewer, Mike; De Agostini, Paola |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the likely impact of Universal Credit on the incomes and work incentives of single parent families. Using the UK module of EUROMOD (version F6.20), we also simulate how single parents’ household income, and their work incentives, would change following adjustments to the universal credit structure. We examine four main alternative scenarios: 1) reducing the overall universal credit taper rate from 65% to 55%; 2) Increasing the basic (standard) allowances in universal credit for single parents; 3) Increasing the earnings disregard in universal credit for single parents and 4) Increasing the income tax threshold for the basic tax rate. We also examine the impact on single parents of an increase in the minimum wage. Finally, we examine the impact on the Exchequer of a five percentage point increase in the single parent employment rate, in terms of benefits saved and taxes paid. |
| Date: | 2015–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em3-15&r=mfd |
| By: | Zachary Feinstein; Birgit Rudloff; Stefan Weber |
| Abstract: | Systemic risk refers to the risk that the financial system is susceptible to failures due to the characteristics of the system itself. The tremendous cost of this type of risk requires the design and implementation of tools for the efficient macroprudential regulation of financial institutions. The current paper proposes a novel approach to measuring systemic risk. Key to our construction is a rigorous derivation of systemic risk measures from the structure of the underlying system and the objectives of a financial regulator. The suggested systemic risk measures express systemic risk in terms of capital endowments of the financial firms. Their definition requires two ingredients: first, a cash flow or value model that assigns to the capital allocations of the entities in the system a relevant stochastic outcome. The second ingredient is an acceptability criterion, i.e. a set of random variables that identifies those outcomes that are acceptable from the point of view of a regulatory authority. Systemic risk is measured by the set of allocations of additional capital that lead to acceptable outcomes. The resulting systemic risk measures are set-valued and can be studied using methods from set-valued convex analysis. At the same time, they can easily be applied to the regulation of financial institutions in practice. We explain the conceptual framework and the definition of systemic risk measures, provide an algorithm for their computation, and illustrate their application in numerical case studies. We apply our methodology to systemic risk aggregation as described in Chen, Iyengar & Moallemi (2013) and to network models as suggested in the seminal paper of Eisenberg & Noe (2001), see also Cifuentes, Shin & Ferrucci (2005), Rogers & Veraart (2013), and Awiszus & Weber (2015). |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1502.07961&r=mfd |
| By: | Marcel Boyer |
| Abstract: | I characterize and discuss the challenges and pitfalls we must face to grow out for good of recent and future financial crises and economic recessions. I propose a brief history of the 2008 crisis and insist on the loss of confidence within the banking and financial sector, which propagated later to the real sector. I discuss the factors underlying this loss of confidence: the failure of the Federal Reserve Board to abide by its mission; the ill-advised political interventions in mortgage markets; the leniency of (captured) financial regulators; the faulty risk management mechanisms in the banking sector; and the omnipresence of poorly designed compensation systems in the banking and financial sector. I also discuss the ways to rebuild confidence and move out of a bad and stable economic equilibrium. Considering data on gross job creation and loss in the US private sector, I challenge the sorcerer’s apprentices’ plan for reforming capitalism and I recall the key role played by creative destruction. I suggest that government deficits and economic growth are not good friends, offering a reference to the Canadian experience of the two decades 1985-2005. Finally, I discuss fiscal and regulatory reforms and propose a set of redefined roles for public/governmental and competitive/private sectors in generating a more prosperous economy. <P>Je caractérise les défis et écueils auxquels nous devons faire face pour sortir pour de bon des crises financières et récessions économiques. Je propose une brève histoire de la crise de 2008 et insiste sur la perte de confiance au sein du secteur bancaire et financier, qui s’est propagée plus tard au secteur réel. Je présente les facteurs-clés de la crise: la défaillance du Federal Reserve Board dans la poursuite de sa mission; les interventions politiciennes dans le marché hypothécaire; la complaisance des régulateurs; la faiblesse des mécanismes de gestion de risques au sein du système bancaire; et l’omniprésence dans le secteur bancaire et financier de systèmes de rémunération mal conçus. Je discute des moyens de rétablir la confiance et de se sortir d'un équilibre économique mauvais mais stable. Considérant les données brutes sur la création et la perte d'emplois dans le secteur privé américain, je nous mets en garde contre les apprentis-sorciers en mal de réformer le capitalisme et je rappelle le rôle-clé de la destruction créatrice. Je suggère que les déficits publics et la croissance économique ne sont pas de bons comparses, donnant en référence l'expérience canadienne de la période 1985-2005. Enfin, je discute des réformes fiscales et réglementaires et je propose des rôles renouvelés des secteurs public/gouvernemental et privé/concurrentiel dans le façonnement d’une économie plus prospère. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis, confidence, creative destruction, fiscal reform, prudential systemic regulation, competitive social-democracy, Crise financière, confiance, destruction créatrice, réforme fiscale, réglementation systémique prudentielle, social-démocratie concurrentielle |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-01&r=mfd |
| By: | Samuel Standaert; Stijn Ronsse; Benjamin Vandermarliere (-) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the structure and the evolution of worldwide trade integration from 1880 up to 1995. Starting from historical trade and GDP data we use a state-space model to construct a bilateral historical trade index. This index is subsequently used to study globalization and the distance puzzle. The increased coverage of this index allows us to expand the period of analysis to include both the first and second globalization waves. We find that the first wave was marked by a strong diversification in the formation of trade links as well as a strong decrease in the effect of distance. The second globalization wave started with a strong decrease in the importance of distance which leveled out in the 1960s. While we do find some evidence of an increase in the importance of distance from the 1960s onwards, this is dwarfed by the strong decrease preceding it. |
| Keywords: | Trade integration, Globalization, Distance puzzle, State-space |
| JEL: | F15 C4 F14 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:14/897&r=mfd |
| By: | Asheim , Bjørn (UiS Business School/Centre for Innovation Research, University of Stavanger & CIRCLE, Lund University); Grillitsch , Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Smart specialisation as a strategic approach for an innovation-driven regional development policy is extremely important in the European policy context and a precondition for accessing significant amounts of funding. In this paper, we pursue two aims: First, we clarify what smart specialisation means and introduce theoretical perspectives strengthening this policy approach. We will discuss the role of different modes of innovation and knowledge bases for different types of new path development. Second, we aim at identifying the sources for new path development within the smart specialisation framework for a peripheral manufacturing region. We present the key findings from a case study of Møre and Romsdal, in the western parts of Norway, which has been successful economically despite low scores on the typical innovation indicators. The case study was conducted in autumn 2014 and combines an in-depth analysis of relevant policy documents and 17 semi-structured interviews. Thereby, we illustrate to what extent a smart specialisation policy can add value in Norway. As Norway is not part of the EU, it is not compulsory for Norwegian counties to design smart specialisation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Smart specialisation; new path development; periphery; innovation; regional development |
| JEL: | P48 R10 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2015_011&r=mfd |
| By: | Derrick M. Anderson; Andrew B. Whitford |
| Abstract: | National statistical systems are the enterprises tasked with collecting, validating and reporting societal attributes. These data serve many purposes - they allow governments to improve services, economic actors to traverse markets, and academics to assess social theories. National statistical systems vary in quality, especially in developing countries. This study examines determinants of national statistical capacity in developing countries, focusing on the impact of general purpose technologies (GPTs). Just as technological progress helps to explain differences in economic growth, states with markets with greater technological attainment (specifically, general purpose technologies) arguably have greater capacity for gathering and processing quality data. Analysis using panel methods shows a strong, statistically significant positive linear relationship between GPTs and national statistical capacity. There is no evidence to support a non-linear function in this relationship. Which is to say, there does not appear to be a marginal depreciating National Statistical Capacity benefit associated with increases in GPTs. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1502.07625&r=mfd |
| By: | Thomas Goldring; Fabian Lange; Seth Richards-Shubik |
| Abstract: | We develop a flexible test for changes in the SES-mortality gradient over time that directly accounts for changes in the distribution of education, the most commonly used marker of SES. We implement the test for the period between 1984 and 2006 using microdata from the Census, CPS, and NHIS linked to death records. Using our flexible test, we find that the evidence for a change in the education-mortality gradient is not as strong and universal as previous research has suggested. Our results indicate that the gradient increased for females during this time period, but we cannot rule out that the gradient among males has not changed. Informally, the results suggest that the changes for females are mainly driven by the bottom of the education distribution. |
| JEL: | I14 J11 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20993&r=mfd |
| By: | Emanuela Ciapanna (Bank of Italy); Marco Taboga (Bank of Italy); Eliana Viviano (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We propose a structural model of two-sided matching and a semi-parametric procedure for its estimation that allow to analyze determinants of managers’ compensation such as firm’s and manager’s quality, production technology, bargaining power and inter-temporal preferences. We use the estimated model to study the stylized fact that managers in the financial sector receive higher compensation than their peers in other sectors. Our results suggest that a predominant portion of this wage gap is explained by differences in production technology, while differences in bargaining power, preferences and quality have a minor impact and are seldom statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | managers’ compensation, job matching |
| JEL: | C73 D31 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1000_15&r=mfd |
| By: | E. Grifell-TatjeÌ (Universitat AutoÌ€noma de Barcelona); C. A. K. Lovell (School of Economics, The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | Recently Diewert (2014) decomposed cost change into the product of four drivers. He then combined three of these drivers with a novel measure of returns to scale to decompose profitability change. We use an implicit Konus input quantity index to show that his expression for profitability change is the product of a price recovery index and an implicit productivity index, and we extend his analysis by exploiting new relationships between theoretical Konus and empirical Fisher price indexes to obtain two new decompositions of profitability change. One pairs a Konus price recovery index with a Fisher implicit productivity index, the other has pure Fisher structure, and we note the advantages of each. |
| Keywords: | Profitability,Productivity,Implicit Index Numbers |
| JEL: | C43 D24 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uqcepa:101&r=mfd |
| By: | Jörg Paetzold (University of Salzburg); Hannes Winner (University of Salzburg) |
| Abstract: | We provide first field evidence on evasion spillovers as an important determinant of the individual compliance decision. Exploiting discontinuities in a self-reported commuter tax allowance, we observe a substantial share of taxpayers misreporting their claims. Using exogenous variation in job changes we find that individual evasion decisions are influenced by the compliance behaviour of other co-workers, with job changers from low- to high-cheating companies starting to evade much more after they move. In contrast, movers from high- to low-cheating companies do not alter their reporting. The most likely explanation is information transmission, including increased knowledge about the possibilities for non-compliance. |
| Keywords: | Tax Evasion, Self-Reporting, Spillover Eects, Information Frictions industrial clusters, infrastructure |
| JEL: | H24 H26 D83 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1419&r=mfd |
| By: | Klaus Desmet; Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín; Romain Wacziarg |
| Abstract: | We investigate the empirical relationship between ethnicity and culture, defined as a vector of traits reflecting norms, attitudes and preferences. Using surveys of individual values in 76 countries, we find that ethnic identity is a significant predictor of cultural values, yet that within-group variation in culture trumps between-group variation. Thus, in contrast to a commonly held view, ethnic and cultural diversity are unrelated. We explore the correlates of cultural diversity and of the overlap between culture and ethnicity, finding that the level of economic development is positively associated with cultural diversity and negatively associated with the overlap between culture and ethnicity. Finally, although only a small portion of a country's overall cultural heterogeneity occurs between groups, this does not imply that cultural differences between groups are irrelevant. Indeed, we find that civil conflict becomes more likely when there is greater overlap between ethnicity and culture. |
| JEL: | D74 J15 P48 Z10 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20989&r=mfd |
| By: | Elisabeth Gugl (Department of Economics, University of Victoria); George R. Zodrow (Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University; Centre for Business Taxation, Oxford University) |
| Abstract: | Most of the tax competition literature focuses on the provision of local public services to households. However, a number of papers, dating back to Zodrow and Mieszkowski (1986), analyze tax competition when capital taxes are used to finance local public services provided to businesses, examining to which extent such services are provided efficiently, under-provided, or over-provided. In addition, several prominent observers have noted that “benefit-related” business taxation is desirable on efficiency and equity grounds and argued that such taxation should take the form of a production tax, such as an origin-based value added tax. We evaluate this contention in this paper, comparing within the context of a model of interjurisdictional competition the relative efficiency properties of business taxes that are assessed on production to those assessed on capital. We also provide a brief review of the literature on capital tax competition when public services are provided to businesses. |
| Keywords: | business public services, infrastructure, tax competition, capital taxes |
| JEL: | H41 H42 H21 H11 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1406&r=mfd |
| By: | Arif, Salman (IN University); Ben-Rephael, Azi (IN University); Lee, Charles M. C. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Using high resolution data, we show that short-sellers (SSs) systematically profit from mutual fund (MF) flows. At the daily level, SSs trade strongly in the opposite direction to MFs. This negative relation is associated with the expected component of MF flows (based on prior days' trading), as well as the unexpected component (based on same-day flows). The ability of SS trades to predict stock returns is up to 3 times greater when MF flows are in the opposite direction. The resulting wealth transfer from MFs to SSs is most pronounced for high-MF-held, low-liquidity firms, and is much larger during periods of high retail sentiment. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3162&r=mfd |
| By: | Núria Quella (SUNY - Stony Brook University); Silvio Rendon (Stony Brook University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explain how easier home financing and higher homeownership rates increase unemployment rates. To this purpose we build a model of job search with liquid wealth accumulation and consumption of housing, that can be rented, bought on credit, or sold. In our model, more relaxed house credit conditions increase workers' reservation wages, making them more selective in their job search. More selective job searches deteriorate employment transitions: job finding and job-to-job transitions rates decline while job loss rates increase, causing the overall unemployment rate to rise. We estimate this model structurally using NLSY data from 1978 until 2005. We find that more relaxed housing lending conditions, particularly lower downpayment requirements, increase unemployment rates by 6 percent points. We also find that declining labor demand decreases homeownership rates by 14 percent points. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1222&r=mfd |
| By: | Jenter, Dirk (Stanford University); Lewellen, Katharina (?) |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the relationship between firm performance and CEO turnover. We do away with the distinction between forced and voluntary turnovers and introduce the concept of performance-induced turnover, defined as turnover that would not have occurred had performance been better. We show that more than 40% of all CEO turnovers are performance induced, and more than 50% of turnovers in the first eight tenure years. This far exceeds the frequency of forced turnovers identified in prior studies. We also find that the effects of performance on turnover are as high in the first five tenure years as in the next five, and that the effects decline only after tenure year 10. Further, CEO departures in all tenure years respond strongly to recent performance but are almost insensitive to performance in the more distant past. These results reject the standard model of CEO turnover in which boards learn from firm performance about constant CEO ability. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3054&r=mfd |
| By: | Sara Horrell; Deborah Oxley |
| Abstract: | Gender bias against girls in nineteenth-century England has received much interest but establishing its existence has proved difficult. We utilise data on heights of 16,402 children working in northern textile factories in 1837 to examine whether gender bias was evident. Current interpretations argue against any difference. Here our comparisons with modern height standards reveal greater deprivation for girls than for boys. But this result cannot be taken at face value. We query whether modern standards require adjustment to account for the later timing of puberty in historical populations and develop an alternative. Gender discrimination remains, although its absence amongst younger children precludes an indictment of culturally-founded gender bias. The height data must remain mute on the source of this discrimination but we utilise additional information to examine some hypotheses: occupational sorting, differential susceptibility to disease, poorer nutrition for girls, disproportionate stunting from the effects of nutritional deprivation, and type and amount of work undertaken, specifically labour additional to paid work in the domestic sphere. Of these, we favour housework as the main culprit, factory girls undertook more physical labour than factory boys and this was reflected in disproportionate stunting. The 'double burden' was, and remains, a form of gender discrimination. |
| Date: | 2015–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:number-133&r=mfd |
| By: | Martin Simmler (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence on the causal impact of debt shiftingactivities of multinational companies (MNC) on their capital accumulation. The identification strategy exploits the corporate tax rate cut of 10%-points in Germany 2008 as a quasi-natural experiment. This reform reduced substantially the incentive of multinational firmsto engage in debt shifting. Using a difference-in-diverences matching strategy (DiD), the results suggest firstly that MNC decrease their fraction of internal borrowing and thus reduced or even stopped shifting profits abroad. Secondly they decreased their capital stock compared to purely domestic firms. Combined, the results suggest that if MNC shift pro ts abroad, their capital accumulation is less depressed by the national tax rate and thus benefits less from a tax ratereduction. The DiD results are confirmed by a structural approach, which focus on the tax incentive to shift profits to the headquarter for the identification. The ndings are particularly strong for firms with a low ratio of profits before interest to their capital stock which suggests that only debt shifting but not transfer pricing fosters capital accumulation. Moreover, it is shown that more generous depreciation allowances decrease the difference in capital accumulation between domestic and multinational firms. |
| Keywords: | internal debt shifting, capital accumulation, corporate income taxation, depreciation allowances |
| JEL: | H25 F23 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1424&r=mfd |
| By: | Meryem Duygun (School of Management, University of Leicester, UK); Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez (Department of Finance & Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Amparo Soler-Domínguez (Department of Finance & Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between active management and performance in US equity mutual funds over the period 2001-2011 for both gross and net returns. Mutual funds achieve nonzero abnormal performance through strategies that produce differentiated results which are not captured by risk factors. Active management is measured by time-varying parameters, idiosyncratic risk and turnover. The results show a negative aggregate performance close to zero. Performance is worse for non-survivor mutual funds. A U-shaped relation is found between active management and performance, thus both the best and the worst mutual funds show a higher level of active management. This behaviour is also found in the relationship between expenses and performance. Active management therefore implies selecting different strategies or investment bets with higher expenses and an unequal performance is achieved. However some level of persistence in the success of these bets is only fond for the best mutual funds. Moreover the results of these bets show a low level of similarity in terms of herding between the best funds. In contrast, the failures of the worst mutual funds are not persistent before expenses are considered, but there is a higher level of herding among these funds. In sum, the best funds reflect persistence and particular skills, whereas the worst present non-persistence and common failures. |
| Keywords: | Mutual fund, performance, active management, expenses, persistence, herding |
| JEL: | G23 G11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2015/01&r=mfd |
| By: | Milio, Simona; Garnizova, Elitsa; Shkreli, Alma |
| Abstract: | Sheds lights on the current state of TVET in Myanmar with a particular focus on the role of the private sector, identifies constraints on skills development and provides recommendations to determine future policy measures that would improve and strengthen strategic areas for TVET development. It also explores the demand for skills in Myanmar's economy, identifies the major development factors and the possible role of TVET, and investigates the current status of national education system, training policies and TVET. In its final chapter it provides recommendations on the transition from supply-driven to demand-driven labour market and improvement of the TVET delivery and quality. |
| Keywords: | vocational training, vocational education, labour demand, skill requirements, Myanmar, formation professionnelle, enseignement professionnel, besoins en main-d'oeuvre, besoins en travailleurs qualifiés, Myanmar, formación profesional, enseñanza profesional, necesidad de mano de obra, requisitos de cualificación, Myanmar |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:487051&r=mfd |
| By: | Hennessy, Christopher; Strebulaev, Ilya |
| Abstract: | We argue exogenous random treatment is insufficient for valid inference regarding the sign and magnitude of causal effects in dynamic environments. In such settings, treatment responses must be understood as contingent upon the typically unmodeled policy generating process. With binary assignment, this results in quantitatively significant attenuation bias. With more than two policy states, treatment responses can be biased downward, upward, or have the wrong sign. Further, it is not only generally invalid to extrapolate elasticities across policy processes, as argued by Lucas (1976), but also to extrapolate within the same policy process. We derive auxiliary assumptions beyond exogeneity for valid inference in dynamic settings. If all possible policy transitions are rare events, treatment responses approximate causal effects. However, reliance on rare events is overly-restrictive as the necessary and sufficient conditions for equality of treatment responses and causal effects is that policy variable changes have mean zero. If these conditions are not met, we show how treatment responses can nevertheless be corrected and mapped back to causal effects or extrapolated to forecast responses to future policy changes. |
| Keywords: | causal effects; dynamic environments; natural experiments; policy evaluations; random treatment |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10455&r=mfd |
| By: | Bhavnani, Rikhil R. (University of WI); Jha, Saumitra (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | In this overview article, we summarize recent research in progress that examines the potential and limitations of non-violent civil disobedience through the lens of the evolution of an iconic success: India's struggle for democratic self-rule. We present a theoretical framework that highlights two key twin challenges faced by non-violent movements in ethnically diverse countries. The first is the challenge of mass mobilization across ethnic lines. The second challenge lies in overcoming the enhanced temptations faced by members of large mobilized groups to turn violent, whether to secure short-term gains from mob action or in response to manipulation by agents who stand to gain from political violence. We show how these challenges appear to match general patterns from cross-campaign data. Motivated by these patterns, we discuss how these challenges were overcome during the Indian Independence Struggle. We argue that the first challenge--that of forging a mass movement [was accomplished through the brokering of a deal that took advantage of external shocks] in this case, the Great Depression--to align the incentives of disparate ethnic and social groups towards mass mobilization in favour of democracy and land reform. The second key challenge--that of keeping the mass movement peaceful was accomplished through organizational innovations introduced by Mohandas Gandhi in his reforms of the constitution of the Congress movement in 1919-20. These organizational innovations took the Congress movement from one dominated by a rich elite to one organized on the principle of self-sacrifice, selecting future leaders who could then be trusted to maintain non-violent discipline in pursuit of the extension of broad rights and public policy objectives. We conclude by arguing that a key, but hitherto mostly neglected, aspect of 'Gandhi's Gift'--the example of non-violence applied to India's independence struggle-lies in understanding these organizational innovations. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:2143&r=mfd |
| By: | Christine Cutting; Davy Paindaveine; Thomas Verdebout |
| Abstract: | We consider asymptotic inference for the concentration of directional data. More precisely, wepropose tests for concentration (i) in the low-dimensional case where the sample size n goes to infinity andthe dimension p remains fixed, and (ii) in the high-dimensional case where both n and p become arbitrarilylarge. To the best of our knowledge, the tests we provide are the first procedures for concentration thatare valid in the (n; p)-asymptotic framework. Throughout, we consider parametric FvML tests, that areguaranteed to meet asymptotically the nominal level constraint under FvML distributions only, as well as“pseudo-FvML” versions of such tests, that are validity-robust within the class of rotationally symmetricdistributions.We conduct a Monte-Carlo study to check our asymptotic results and to investigate the finitesamplebehavior of the proposed tests. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/194991&r=mfd |
| By: | Nuno Ornelas Martins (Centro de Estudos em Gestão e Economia da Universidade Católica Portuguesa) |
| Abstract: | In this article I compare the classical theory of value with the theory of value that emerged after the marginal revolution, taking into account the underlying conceptions of process and order that are implicit in each theory. In classical political economy, the economy is conceived of as a continuous process of reproduction, wherein a surplus is distributed through various social classes. After the classical period, the notion of reproduction is replaced with the notion of equilibrium, while the analysis of society in terms of social classes is replaced by methodological individualism. Value also starts to be seen in terms of marginal utility, rather than cost of production. This transformation brought important changes to the implicit philosophical conceptions of process and order that have underpinned the dominant economic doctrine from the classical period until today, leading to the marginalist belief that market exchange is always the most efficient coordinating mechanism of the economy. The classical perspective, however, contains a broader conception of socio-economic reproduction, which is consistent with different institutional arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Process, order, reproduction, exchange, value. |
| JEL: | B41 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cap:wpaper:062014&r=mfd |
| By: | Liemt, Gijsbert van |
| Abstract: | This paper was written by Gijsbert van Liemt, an independent consultant on employment and skills policies, and a former ILO official working on Active Labour Market Policies. His paper discusses secondary technical and vocational education and training (TVET) in the Netherlands, highlighting the role of TVET in regional training centres which offer a broad range of programmes at different levels. It identifies reasons why Dutch TVET has received international attention, and examines the role of the social partners in this system, as well as the initiatives by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science to change the framework over recent years. It provides a brief overview of the Dutch labour market and labour relations and of the main sources of labour market information, before discussing the role of business in secondary TVET, its place in the overall education system, government policies and related issues. It also covers the salaries, working conditions and job satisfaction of teachers and trainers. |
| Keywords: | vocational education, vocational training, continuing vocational training, teaching personnel, working conditions, training centre, enterprise level, Netherlands |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:485252&r=mfd |
| By: | Aring, Monika |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the skills needs in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and how Member States can strengthen their skills and training systems to benefit from emerging opportunities of integration and boost competitiveness. Maximizing the benefits of regional integration will necessitate leveraging the knowledge, skills and creativity of ASEAN’s labour force of 317 million women and men. This paper looks at statistical trends since 2005 regarding education and skills attainment, and technical and vocational education and training enrolment in ASEAN. It assesses the quality of education and vocational training and the readiness of ASEAN’s labour force, including young people making the school-to-work transition, to take advantage of new opportunities in a more integrated and dynamic region. The paper also examines the challenge of skills mismatch and skilled labour shortages in the region. |
| Keywords: | labour market, interindustry shift, skill requirements, competitiveness, employability, ASEAN countries, marché du travail, mutation interindustrielle, besoins en travailleurs qualifiés, compétitivité, aptitude à l'emploi, pays de l'ANASE, mercado de trabajo, desplazamiento industrial, requisitos de cualificación, competitividad, empleabilidad, países del ASEAN |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:487273&r=mfd |
| By: | Grillitsch , Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Smart specialisation features prominently in the European regional policy context. This paper discusses how the configuration of the regional institutional framework affects smart specialisation dynamics and policy. It elaborates why and how institutional diversity and integration promote entrepreneurial discovery processes, spillovers and agglomeration effects, and thereby structural change in regions. Policy challenges arising from the regional institutional framework are identified, discussed and related to well-research system failures of regional innovation systems. |
| Keywords: | regional policy; smart specialisation; institutions; regional innovation systems; system failures |
| JEL: | B52 O17 O43 P48 R10 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2015_012&r=mfd |
| By: | Yoshio Kamijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Hiroki Ozono (Kagoshima University); Kazumi Shimizu (Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | We examine three tools that can enhance coordination success in a repeated multiple-choice coordination game. Gradualism means that the game starts as an easy coordination problem and moves gradually to a more difficult one. The Endogenous Ascending mechanism implies that a gradual increase in the upper bound of coordination occurs only if coordination with the Pareto superior equilibrium in a stage game is attained. The Endogenous Descending mechanism requires that when the game's participants fail to coordinate, the level of the next coordination game be adjusted such that the game becomes simpler. We show that gradualism may not always work, but in such instances, its effect can be reinforced by endogeneity. Our laboratory experiment provides evidence that a mechanism that combines three tools, herein termed the ``Gradualism with Endogenous Ascending and Descending (GEAD)'' mechanism, works well. We discuss how the GEAD mechanism can be applied to real-life situations that suffer from coordination failure. |
| Keywords: | Coordination Failure, Minimum Effort Game, Laboratory Experiment, Target Adjustment, Gradualism, Endogenous Ascending, Endogenous Descending |
| JEL: | C72 C91 C92 M54 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2015-11&r=mfd |
| By: | Francisco Blasques; Falk Bräuning; Iman van Lelyveld |
| Abstract: | We introduce a structural dynamic network model of the formation of lending relationships in the unsecured interbank market. Banks are subject to random liquidity shocks and can form links with potential trading partners to bilaterally Nash bargain about loan conditions. To reduce credit risk uncertainty, banks can engage in costly peer monitoring of counterparties. We estimate the structural model parameters by indirect inference using network statistics of the Dutch interbank market from 2008 to 2011. The estimated model accurately explains the high sparsity and stability of the lending network. In particular, peer monitoring and credit risk uncertainty are key factors in the formation of stable interbank lending relationships that are associated with improved credit conditions. Moreover, the estimated degree distribution of the lending network is highly skewed with a few very interconnected core banks and many peripheral banks that trade mainly with core banks. Shocks to credit risk uncertainty can lead to extended periods of low market activity, amplified by a reduction in peer monitoring. Finally, our monetary policy analysis shows that a wider interest rate corridor leads to a more active market through a direct effect on the outside options and an indirect multiplier effect by increasing banks' monitoring and search efforts. |
| Keywords: | Interbank liquidity; financial networks; credit risk uncertainty; peer monitoring; monetary policy; trading relationships; indirect parameter estimation |
| JEL: | C33 C51 E52 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:460&r=mfd |
| By: | Marco Lugo Rodriguez |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the effects of fiscal policy on entrepreneurship outcomes in the Canadian provinces for the 1984 – 2009 period. This is the first paper to assess the impact of taxation on entrepreneurship in Canada by using intensive-margin measures (i.e. entrepreneurial income and employment) instead of more commonly used participation measures, as they are thought to be more closely related to policy goals such as entrepreneurial sustainability. A dynamic panel data approach is employed in order to account for potential trends in both taxation policy and entrepreneurial outcomes. The results are consistent with previous literature of the United States and indicate that if the trends, caused by incomplete labour mobility among other things, are indeed important then tax policy has no statistically significant impact on the measured entrepreneurial outcomes. <P> |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, tax policy, dynamic panel estimators, |
| Date: | 2014–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2014s-46&r=mfd |
| By: | Camille Hémet (Universidad de Barcelona & IEB) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how diversity affects individuals’ employment prospects, using data from the French Labor Force Survey. Employment correlates positively with local labor market diversity, but negatively with neighborhood diversity. Using an instrumental variable approach to deal with local labor market diversity drives the positive correlation to zero, confirming the suspicion of self-selection. Regarding neighborhood diversity, I adopt the strategy of Bayer et al. (2008), taking advantage of the very precise localization of the data: the negative effect of diversity is reinforced. I also show that nationalitybased diversity matters more than parents’ origin-based diversity, giving insights on the underlying mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Diversity, employment, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | J15 J60 R23 Z13 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2013/6/doc2015-4&r=mfd |
| By: | Evrin, Alperen |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine the effects of implementing tighter Intellectual Property Rights in a model of International Trade. In my model, firms in different countries have the choice of committing their resources to introducing new products (product innovation) or to imitating and improving upon current products (process innovation). I analyze the impact of stronger patents on innovation decisions, overall welfare and the distribution of welfare among countries. I show that, depending on parameter values, firms in developed countries (North) may altogether specialize in product innovation or may attain incomplete specialization in the sense that some innovate and some imitate. Welfare analysis will depend on the degree of specialization. In the case of incomplete specialization, tighter IPRs increase the incentives for product innovation in the North but, at the same time, increase the imitation done in the South. This finding is contrary to the conventional argument that states the reverse for imitation rates. In the case of complete specialization, stronger patents do not affect the rate of product innovation but reduce the rate of imitation, and welfare is nonmonotonic in IPRs. Finally, I examine the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and predict that stronger patents will increase the FDI while lowering the wages worldwide. |
| Keywords: | Patent Policies, Foreign Direct Investment |
| JEL: | F43 O31 O34 O38 |
| Date: | 2013–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62392&r=mfd |
| By: | Koudijs, Peter (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | What explains short term fluctuations of stock prices? This paper exploits a natural experiment from the 18th century in which information flows were regularly interrupted for exogenous reasons. English shares were traded on the Amsterdam exchange and news came in on sailing boats that were often delayed because of adverse weather conditions. The paper documents that prices responded strongly to boat arrivals, but that there was considerable volatility in the absence of news. Results suggest that this was largely the result of the revelation of (long-lived) private information and the (transitory) impact of uninformed liquidity trades on intermediaries' risk premia. |
| JEL: | G14 N20 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3186&r=mfd |
| By: | Evans,David-000213993; Popova,Anna |
| Abstract: | In the past two years alone, at least six systematic reviews or meta-analyses have examined the interventions that improve learning outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. However, these reviews have sometimes reached starkly different conclusions: reviews, in turn, recommend information technology, interventions that provide information about school quality, or even basic infrastructure (such as desks) to achieve the greatest improvements in student learning. This paper demonstrates that these divergent conclusions are largely driven by differences in the samples of research incorporated by each review. The top recommendations in a given review are often driven by the results of evaluations not included in other reviews. Of 227 studies with student learning results, the most inclusive review incorporates less than half of the total studies. Variance in classification also plays a role. Across the reviews, the three classes of programs that are recommended with some consistency (albeit under different names) are pedagogical interventions (including computer-assisted learning) that tailor teaching to student skills; repeated teacher training interventions, often linked to another pedagogical intervention; and improving accountability through contracts or performance incentives, at least in certain contexts. Future reviews will be most useful if they combine narrative review with meta-analysis, conduct more exhaustive searches, and maintain low aggregation of intervention categories. |
| Keywords: | Education For All,Primary Education,Secondary Education,Tertiary Education,Effective Schools and Teachers |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7203&r=mfd |
| By: | Hielke Buddelmeyer (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Daniel S. Hamermesh (Department of Economics and CentER, Tilburg University; Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne; CESifo (Munich); Centre for Economic Policy Research (London); and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)) |
| Abstract: | We use longitudinal data describing couples in Australia from 2001-12 and Germany from 2002-12 to examine how demographic events affect perceived time and financial stress. Consistent with the view of measures of stress as proxies for the Lagrangean multipliers in models of household production, we show that births increase time stress, especially among mothers, and that the effects last at least several years. Births generally also raise financial stress slightly. The monetary equivalent of the costs of the extra time stress is very large. While the departure of a child from the home reduces parents’ time stress, its negative impacts on the tightness of the time constraints are much smaller than the positive impacts of a birth. |
| Keywords: | Births, children, financial stress, GSOEP, HILDA Survey, time stress |
| JEL: | J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2015n01&r=mfd |
| By: | Plambeck, Erica L. (Stanford University); Taylor, Terry A. (University of CA, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | Deadly factory fires. Illegal pollution. Injured workers. Many brands have recently been tarnished by publicity of suppliers' labor and environmental violations. This paper provides guidance to buyers as to how they can motivate their suppliers to comply with labor and environmental standards. Obvious approaches (increasing auditing, making it more difficult for the supplier to deceive an auditor, publicizing negative audit reports) can be counterproductive. Less obvious approaches (squeezing the supplier's margin by reducing the price paid to the supplier or increasing wages for workers, precommitment to a low level of auditing) might better motivate supplier compliance effort. Even if the buyer ensures that the supplier's facility is compliant (e.g., through direct investment in the facility), the supplier may outsource some production of the buyer's order to unauthorized subcontractors, exposing the buyer to risk of brand damage. The results in the paper also apply to mitigation of unauthorized subcontracting. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3176&r=mfd |
| By: | Chan, Sewin (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Haughwout, Andrew F. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Tracy, Joseph (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | This chapter considers the structure of mortgage finance in the U.S., and its role in shaping patterns of homeownership, the nature of the housing stock, and the organization of residential activity. We start by providing some background on the design features of mortgage contracts that distinguish them from other loans, and that have important implications for issues presented in the rest of the chapter. We then explain how mortgage finance interacts with public policy, particularly tax policy, to influence a household’s decision to own or rent, and how shifts in the demand for owner-occupied housing are translated into housing prices and quantities, given the unusual nature of housing supply. We consider the distribution of mortgage credit in terms of access and price, by race, ethnicity, income, and over the lifecycle, with particular attention to the role of recent innovations such as non-prime mortgage securitization and reverse mortgages. The extent of negative equity has been unprecedented in the past decade, and we discuss its impact on strategic default, housing turnover, and housing investment. We describe spatial patterns in foreclosure and summarize the evidence for foreclosure spillovers in urban neighborhoods. Finally, we offer some thoughts on future innovations in mortgage finance. |
| Keywords: | mortgage; cities |
| JEL: | G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:713&r=mfd |
| By: | Jan Kregel |
| Abstract: | If emerging markets are to achieve their objective of joining the ranks of industrialized, developed countries, they must use their economic and political influence to support radical change in the international financial system. This working paper recommends John Maynard Keynes's "clearing union" as a blueprint for reform of the international financial architecture that could address emerging market grievances more effectively than current approaches. Keynes's proposal for the postwar international system sought to remedy some of the same problems currently facing emerging market economies. It was based on the idea that financial stability was predicated on a balance between imports and exports over time, with any divergence from balance providing automatic financing of the debit countries by the creditor countries via a global clearinghouse or settlement system for trade and payments on current account. This eliminated national currency payments for imports and exports; countries received credits or debits in a notional unit of account fixed to national currency. Since the unit of account could not be traded, bought, or sold, it would not be an international reserve currency. The credits with the clearinghouse could only be used to offset debits by buying imports, and if not used for this purpose they would eventually be extinguished; hence the burden of adjustment would be shared equally--credit generated by surpluses would have to be used to buy imports from the countries with debit balances. Emerging market economies could improve upon current schemes for regionally governed financial institutions by using this proposal as a template for the creation of regional clearing unions using a notional unit of account. |
| Keywords: | Banking Principle; Bretton Woods; Creditor Countries; Debtor Countries; Emerging Market Economies; Gold Standard; International Monetary Standard; Keynes; Reparations; Schacht; Triffin |
| JEL: | E42 E52 F12 N44 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_833&r=mfd |
| By: | Denis Gromb; Dimitri Vayanos |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of financially constrained arbitrage, and use it to study the dynamics of arbitrage capital, liquidity, and asset prices. Arbitrageurs exploit price discrepancies between assets traded in segmented markets, and in doing so provide liquidity to investors. A collateral constraint limits their positions as a function of capital. We show that the dynamics of arbitrage activity are self-correcting: following a shock that depletes arbitrage capital, profitability increases, and this allows capital to be gradually replenished. Spreads increase more and recover faster for more volatile trades, although arbitrageurs cut their positions in these trades the least. When arbitrage capital is more mobile across markets, liquidity in each market generally becomes less volatile, but the reverse may hold for aggregate liquidity because of mobility-induced contagion. |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G01 G11 G12 G14 G23 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20968&r=mfd |
| By: | Beneish, M. D. (IN University); Lee, C. M. C. (Stanford University); Nichols, D. C. (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | We use detailed security lending data to examine the relation between short sale constraints and equity prices. Our results show that the supply of lendable shares is frequently binding, and the constraint is related to firms' accounting characteristics. Specifically, we find: (1) when the lendable supply is binding (non-binding), short-sale supply (demand) is the main predictor of future stock returns, (2) abnormal returns to the short-side of nine well-known market anomalies are attributable solely to "special" stocks, (3) controlling for expected borrowing costs, a stock's supply of lendable shares varies over time as a function of accounting variables associated with the pricing anomalies, so shares are least available when they are most attractive to short sellers. Overall, our results highlight the central role played by the supply of lendable shares in both equity price formation and returns prediction. |
| JEL: | G14 G17 M40 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3064&r=mfd |
| By: | Sophia Dimelis, Ioannis Giotopoulos and Helen Louri |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects of bank credit on firm growth before and after the recent financial crisis, taking into account different structural characteristics of banking sectors and domestic economies. Panel quantile analysis is used on a sample of 2075 euro area firms in 2005- 2011. The post-2008 credit crunch is found to seriously affect only small, slow-growth firms and especially those operating in concentrated and domestic-dominated banking systems, and in riskier and less financially developed economies. Large, high-growth firms seem to be able to find alternative financial sources and, thus, may act as carriers and facilitators of a credit-less recovery. |
| JEL: | L1 L25 E51 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:89&r=mfd |
| By: | Emma Hooper (_Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, & EHESS) |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal growth path of a natural resource rich country, which can borrow from international financial markets. More precisely, we explore to what extent international borrowing can overcome resource scarcity in a small open economy, in order to have sustainable growth. First, this paper presents a benchmark model with a constant interest rate. We then introduce technical progress to see if the economy's growth can be sustainable in the long-run. Secondly, we analyse the case of a debt elastic interest rate, with a constant price of natural resources and then with increasing prices. The main finding of this paper is that borrowing on international capital markets does not permit sustainable growth for a country with exhaustible natural resources, when the interest rate is constant. Nevertheless, when we endogenize the interest rate the consumption growth rate can be positive before declining. |
| Keywords: | Exhaustible natural resources, exogenous growth, financial markets |
| JEL: | E20 O40 Q32 E44 |
| Date: | 2015–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:15.10&r=mfd |
| By: | Mtiraoui, Abderraouf |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to study the direct and indirect influence of the action of public authority on socio-economic indicators. Indeed, our approach is to test the combined effects of many economic and social factors in the context of a profound change of control systems via human capital and in the presence of institutional change. The adopted scheme so requires and how to govern it is necessary to discover the nature of governance (the effectiveness of government and control of corruption) while using simultaneous equations model in the MENA region during the period 1984- 2012. |
| Keywords: | Government Effectiveness, Control of Corruption, Human Capital, Economic Growth, Model simultaneous equations, MENA. |
| JEL: | H1 |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62433&r=mfd |
| By: | Nicola Pavoni (Bocconi University); Christopher Sleet (Carnegie Mellon University); Matthias Messner (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | We bring together the theories of duality and dynamic programming. We show that the dual of a separable dynamic optimization problem can be recursively decomposed. We provide a dual version of the principle of optimality and give conditions under which the dual Bellman operator is a contraction with the optimal dual value function its unique fixed point. We relate primal and dual problems, address computational issues and give examples. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1267&r=mfd |
| By: | David Gamage (University of California, Berkley) |
| Abstract: | What mix of policy instruments should governments employ to raise revenues or to promote distributional equity? The dominant answer to this question in the tax theory and public finance literatures is that (with limited exceptions) governments should rely exclusively on a progressive consumption tax. Thus, among other implications, the dominant view is that governments should not tax capital income or wealth, and that legal rules should not be designed to promote distributive justice. In contrast, this Article argues that governments should potentially make use of a number of tax and non-tax policy instruments to raise revenues and to promote distributional equity. Furthermore, this Article argues that governments may have much greater capacity to raise revenues and to promote distributional equity at lower efficiency costs than is generally recognized. Whereas the existing theoretical literature focuses on a small number of distortionary costs that result from taxation (in particular, on labor-toleisure and saving-to-spending distortions), this Article analyzes the implications of taxpayers engaging in a diverse variety of tax-gaming responses. To the extent that taxpayers respond to different tax instruments through different forms of tax gaming, this Article demonstrates that governments may be able to raise revenues and promote distributional equity more efficiently by employing a number of different policy instruments. Based on these insights, this Article develops a sufficient-statistics framework for analyzing optimal-choice-of-tax-instruments questions. Then, applying that framework, this Article argues that at least some legal rules should be designed to promote distributional equity. This Article further shows how to roughly calculate the optimal extent to which each such legal rule should be calibrated to promote distributional equity. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1418&r=mfd |
| By: | Brice Corgnet (Economic Science Institute, Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University); Antonio M. Espín (Economics Department, Middlesex University Business School and Granada Lab of Behavioral Economics (GLoBE), Universidad de Granada); Roberto Hernán-González (Granada Lab of Behavioral Economics (GLoBE), Universidad de Granada and Business School, University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Even though human social behavior has received considerable scientific attention in the last decades, its cognitive underpinnings are still poorly understood. Applying a dual-process framework to the study of social preferences, we show in two studies that individuals with a more reflective/deliberative cognitive style, as measured by scores on the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), are more likely to make choices consistent with “mild” altruism in simple non-strategic decisions. Such choices increase social welfare by increasing the other person’s payoff at very low or no cost for the individual. The choices of less reflective individuals (i.e. those who rely more heavily on intuition), on the other hand, are more likely to be associated with either egalitarian or spiteful motives. We also identify a negative link between reflection and choices characterized by “strong” altruism, but this result holds only in Study 2. Moreover, we provide evidence that the relationship between social preferences and CRT scores is not driven by general intelligence. We discuss how our results can reconcile some previous conflicting findings on the cognitive basis of social behavior. |
| Keywords: | dual-process; reflection; intuition; social preferences; altruism; spitefulness; prosocial behavior;antisocial behavior; inequality aversion |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D87 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:15-04&r=mfd |
| By: | Adrian Chadi (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the EU, University of Trier); Clemens Hetschko (School of Business and Economics, Freie Universitaet Berlin) |
| Abstract: | For representative German panel data, we document that voluntary job switching is associated with higher levels of life satisfaction, though only for some time, whereas forced job changes do not affect life satisfaction clearly. Using plant closures as an exogenous trigger of switching to a new employer, we find that job mobility turns out to be harmful for satisfaction with family life. By investigating people’s lives beyond their workplaces, our study complements research on the well-being impact of labour mobility, suggesting some positive welfare effects of flexible labour markets, but also a previously undocumented potential for negative implications. |
| Keywords: | life satisfaction, satisfaction with family life, job changes, honeymoon-hangover effect, employment protection legislation |
| JEL: | I31 J28 J61 J63 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:201502&r=mfd |
| By: | Christopher A. Hennessy; Ilya A. Strebulaev |
| Abstract: | We argue exogenous random treatment is insufficient for valid inference regarding the sign and magnitude of causal effects in dynamic environments. In such settings, treatment responses must be understood as contingent upon the typically unmodeled policy generating process. With binary assignment, this results in quantitatively significant attenuation bias. With more than two policy states, treatment responses can be biased downward, upward, or have the wrong sign. Further, it is not only generally invalid to extrapolate elasticities across policy processes, as argued by Lucas (1976), but also to extrapolate within the same policy process. We derive auxiliary assumptions beyond exogeneity for valid inference in dynamic settings. If all possible policy transitions are rare events, treatment responses approximate causal effects. However, reliance on rare events is overly-restrictive as the necessary and sufficient conditions for equality of treatment responses and causal effects is that policy variable changes have mean zero. If these conditions are not met, we show how treatment responses can nevertheless be corrected and mapped back to causal effects or extrapolated to forecast responses to future policy changes. |
| JEL: | C01 C22 C52 C54 G38 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20978&r=mfd |
| By: | Brewer, Mike; De Agostini, Paola |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the UK module of EUROMOD to examine the likely impact of Universal Credit (UC) on the incomes and work incentives of families containing NMW workers (“NMW familiesâ€). It in part updates previous work done for the Low Pay Commission (Brewer, May and Phillips, 2009). The analysis was completed after the 2012 Autumn Statement, but before the Spring 2013 Budget, and so does not reflect any changes to personal taxes and benefits for 2014-15 announced then. |
| Date: | 2015–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em2-15&r=mfd |
| By: | Sabatini, Fabio; Sarracino, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We explore how participation in social networking sites (SNS) such as Facebook and Twitter affects the most economically relevant aspect of social capital, trust. We use measures of trust in strangers (or social trust), trust in neighbours and trust in the police. We address endogeneity in the use of SNS by exploiting the variation in the availability of broadband for high-speed Internet, which relates to technological characteristics of the pre-existing voice telecommunication infrastructures. We find that all the proxies of trust significantly decrease with participation in online networks. We discuss several interpretations of the results in light of the specific features of Internet-mediated social interaction. |
| Keywords: | Internet; broadband; online networks; social networking sites; Facebook; trust; social capital; hate speech |
| JEL: | D89 O33 Z1 Z13 Z19 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62506&r=mfd |
| By: | Lee, Charles M. C. (Stanford University); Ma, Paul (?); Wang, Charles C. Y. (?) |
| Abstract: | We compare the performance of a comprehensive set of alternative peer identification schemes. Our results show the peer firms identified from aggregation of informed agents' revealed choices in Lee, Ma, and Wang (2014) perform best, followed by peers with the highest overlap in analyst coverage. Conversely, peers firms identified by Google and Yahoo Finance, as well as product market competitors gleaned from 10-K disclosures, turned in consistently worse performances. We contextualize these results in a simple model that predicts when information aggregation across heterogeneously informed individuals is likely to lead to improvements in dealing with the problem of economic benchmarking. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3249&r=mfd |
| By: | Cochrane, Nancy; D’Souza, Anna |
| Abstract: | Household access to food over time in Tanzania is measured by comparing the cost of representative food baskets to household income. Consumption patterns, estimated using household data from the 2010/11 National Panel Survey conducted by Tanzania’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), show considerable diversity across the country. Maize (corn) dominates the diets in the surplus-maize-producing regions. Households in the maize-deficit regions in the north favor other sources of starch such as cassava and banana. The food baskets include 15 food groups that make up approximately 67 to 88 percent of average calorie intake. From 2008/09 to 2010/11, food basket costs rose rapidly in nominal terms but were stable in real terms. Combining food basket cost data and income data suggests that households in the bottom two income quintiles have significant difficulties with access to food. |
| Keywords: | household access to food, Tanzania, maize, cassava, National Panel Survey, food consumption, food security, dietary diversity, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:198784&r=mfd |
| By: | Papanikolaou, Nikolaos |
| Abstract: | The rising delinquencies in the U.S. subprime mortgage market in 2006 and the succeeding collapse in housing prices had a considerably negative impact on the functioning of the European financial systems and the smooth operation of European economies. Indeed, in the Euro-area, what started as a financial crisis escalated to a twin crisis after being doubled by the eruption of a massive sovereign debt crisis in 2010. The lack of an established set of bank supervision and resolution strategies at the Euro-area level, the vicious circle between banks and European nation-states, the threats for the sustainability of the common currency, and the deterioration of the market conditions were the key factors which lately led to the acceleration of the steps towards the creation of a banking union in Europe. The principal aim of the European Banking Union is to shape the necessary legal and institutional framework and provide the authorities with powers and tools to deal with ailing banks in order to prevent the devastating effects that a future shock may have on the financial system, the real economy, and the society. This paper presents the formal reactions of the sovereigns and the European Central Bank to the twin crisis, and critically discusses the key problems and the inherent weaknesses which led to the establishment of a banking union for the Euro-area member states. The structure of the banking union, the various aspects of its operation, and its future prospects are also presented and discussed. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone; European Banking Union; bank regulation and supervision; sovereign risk |
| JEL: | E58 F33 F36 F39 F55 G21 G28 H63 |
| Date: | 2015–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62463&r=mfd |
| By: | Lee, Charles M. C. (Stanford University); Li, Kevin K. (University of Toronto); Zhang, Ran (Peking University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the financial health and performance of reverse mergers (RMs) that became active on U.S. stock markets between 2001 and 2010, particularly those from China (around 85% of all foreign RMs). As a group, RMs are small, early-stage companies that typically trade over-the-counter. Chinese RMs (CRMs), however, tend to be more mature and less speculative than either their U.S. counterparts or a group of exchange-industry-size matched firms. Collectively, CRMs outperformed their matched peers from inception through the end of 2011, even after including most of the firms accused of accounting fraud. CRMs that receive private-equity (PIPE) financing from sophisticated investors perform particularly well. Overall, despite the negative publicity (some from short sellers), we find little evidence that CRMs are inherently toxic investments. Our results shed light on the risk-performance trade-off for CRMs, as well as the delicate balance between credibility and access in well-functioning markets. |
| JEL: | G34 M41 N20 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3063&r=mfd |
| By: | Fortin Mario (Departement d'economique and GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Universite de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | Â This paper estimates a reduced form model of the Canadian mortgage demand from 1971 to 2010. Three equations are estimated, one for the average real value of new mortgage loans originated, another one for the number of new loans and a third for the flow of real repayment of existing loans. The results show that the nominal interest rate is the main source of change in the number of new loans while real housing price is the main determinant of the value of new loans. Two other variables, the real per-capita disposable income and the inflation rate, are also significant in changing the flow of new loans originated. A fall in the inflation rate accompanied by a concomitant reduction in the interest rate is in average the main source of increase in households' mortgage debt, because it increase the flow of new loans and at the same time reduces the rate of repayment of existing loans. Between 2000 and 2007, the unprecedented increase in real housing price while inflation was stable became the main factor behind the rise in mortgage debt, mostly because the average mortgage debt increased significantly. After that, the reduction in the interest rate sustained an increase in the number of new loans. The model does not find indications that a change in the supply side of the mortgage market played a significant role in the increased level of mortgage debt. |
| Keywords: | Â Mortgage market, household debt, Canada |
| JEL: | D14 D91 E44 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:15-03&r=mfd |
| By: | Musab Kurnaz (Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business); Christopher Sleet (Carnegie Mellon University); Laurence Ales (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | A large positive literature emphasizes the role of technological change in driving the demand for skill and talent. We consider the normative implications of such technical change for policy design. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1257&r=mfd |
| By: | Eric Zwick (University of Chicago Booth, School of Business); James Mahon (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of temporary tax incentives on equipment investment using shifts in accelerated depreciation. Analyzing data for over 120,000 firms, we present three findings. First, bonus depreciation raised investment 17.3 percent on average between 2001 and 2004 and 29.5 percent between 2008 and 2010. Second, financially constrained firms respond more than unconstrained firms. Third, firms respond strongly when the policy generates immediate cash flows but not when benefits only come in the future. Implied discount rates are too high to match a frictionless model and cannot be explained entirely by costly finance, unless firms neglect future financial constraints. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1415&r=mfd |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Agriculture - Agricultural Research Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Economic Theory and Research Agriculture - Agribusiness Environment Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:21419&r=mfd |
| By: | Strambach , Simone (Department of Geography, Philipps-University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to contribute both conceptually and empirically to a deeper understanding of the territorial shaping of knowledge combination and its development dynamics underpinning innovation. The importance of combining and integrating knowledge bases from different sources, geographical scales and heterogeneous actors is increasingly recognized in innovation studies. Yet, the question of what limits or enables knowledge combinations in innovation processes and what generates relatedness among unrelated knowledge bases in time and space is not fully answered. Conceptually the paper suggests a more specific focus on microfoundations and temporality by taking into account the economics of organization in more detail. This appears a particularly promising approach, as the causal relations and mechanisms across and between aggregated levels such as firms, sectors, regions, or nations are not well understood. Empirically the paper explores the micro-dynamics of knowledge combination and its territorial shaping from a transnational perspective. German-Chinese innovation projects in sustainable construction are investigated by using the methodology of innovation biography. This method allows following the time-space path of innovation. It enables capturing knowledge interactions and their unfolding in multi-scalar and cross-sectoral ways. The results underline a very dynamic geography of organization and barriers for knowledge integration at the micro-level rooted in organizational and institutional path dependencies. The investigation in the interplay between more permanent and temporary organizational forms and its geography holds a large potential for further research to provide new insights into the spatiality of combining knowledge bases in innovation processes. |
| Keywords: | knowledge dynamics; transnational innovation; microfoundations; economics of organization; innovation biography |
| JEL: | D83 L14 L20 L84 O31 |
| Date: | 2015–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2015_010&r=mfd |
| By: | Sato, Jin |
| Abstract: | Why do some countries employ a single ministry to administer all foreign aid activities while others have a number of different ministries to manage their aid programs? This question should interest not just the historians of foreign aid, but also those engaged in contemporary policy. Additionally, it has a strong bearing on the rise of emerging donors, as many of the new donors are also at the stage of forming bureaucracies for giving aid.While Japan has been relatively successful in integrating agencies at the implementation level (e.g., the establishment of new JICA in 2008), centralization at the ministerial level is lagging far behind and decision making is confusingly multi-centric. The 2003 DAC (Development Assistance Committee) peer review of Japan highlighted that “Japan’s aid system remains one of the most dispersed and complex among DAC members, which presents clear challenges for co-ordination.” Having multi-centric bodies making decisions about the use of the ODA (Official Development Assistance) has repeatedly been criticized, both domestically and internationally, as inefficient and ineffective. I argue that the inability of the government to unify its administrative system should not be seen as sheer failure. The very continuation of such failure for the past 60 years should also be viewed as achieving something successfully, if unintended: the involvement of a wide range of constituents from the private sectors, and preparing more broad-based Japanese economic cooperation. Like in the assessment of any other policy, the costs and benefits of administrative unity should be carefully weighed. I would further claim that quasi-governmental corporations, which functioned as a mediator between ODA related ministries and the private sectors, played a significant role in expanding the constituents of economic cooperation within Japan. In the field of economic cooperation, only the costs of a dispersed system have been pinpointed without due attention being given to its potential benefits. |
| Keywords: | aid administration , unification , quasi-governmental corporations , economic cooperation , Japan |
| Date: | 2015–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:87&r=mfd |
| By: | Duffie, Darrell (Stanford University); Dworczak, Piotr (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Recent scandals over the manipulation of LIBOR and foreign exchange benchmarks have spurred policy discussions of the appropriate design of financial benchmarks. We solve a version of the problem faced by a financial benchmark administrator. Acting as a mechanism designer, the benchmark administrator constructs a "fixing," meaning an estimator of a market value or reference rate based on transactions or other submission data. The data are generated by agents whose profits depend on the realization of the estimator (the benchmark fixing). Agents can misreport, or trade at distorted prices, in order to manipulate the fixing. We characterize the best linear unbiased benchmark fixing. |
| JEL: | D82 G12 G14 G18 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3175&r=mfd |
| By: | Raquel Fonseca Benito; Arie Kapteyn; Jinkook Lee; Gema Zamarro |
| Abstract: | Continued improvements in life expectancy and fiscal insolvency of public pensions have led to an increase in pension entitlement ages in several countries, but its consequences for subjective well-being are largely unknown. Financial consequences of retirement complicate the estimation of effects of retirement on subjective well-being as financial circumstances may influence subjective well-being, and therefore, the effects of retirement are likely to be confounded by the change in income. At the same time, unobservable determinants of income are probably related with unobservable determinants of subjective wellbeing, making income possibly endogenous if used as control in subjective wellbeing regressions. To address these issues, we estimate a simultaneous model of retirement, income, and subjective well-being while accounting for time effects and unobserved individual effects. Public pension arrangements (replacement rates, eligibility rules for early and full retirement) serve as instrumental variables. We use data from HRS and SHARE for the period 2004-2010. We find that depressive symptoms are negatively related to retirement while life satisfaction is positively related. Remarkably, income does not seem to have a significant effect on depression or life satisfaction. This is in contrast with the correlations in the raw data that show significant relations between income and depression and life satisfaction. This suggests that accounting for the endogeneity of income in equations explaining depression or life satisfaction is important. |
| Keywords: | Well-being, Retirement, Institutions, Simultaneous Equation Approach, |
| JEL: | I3 J26 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-07&r=mfd |
| By: | Pfleiderer, Paul (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | In this essay I discuss how theoretical models in finance and economics are used in ways that make them "chameleons" and how chameleons devalue the intellectual currency and muddy policy debates. A model becomes a chameleon when it is built on assumptions with dubious connections to the real world but nevertheless has conclusions that are uncritically (or not critically enough) applied to understanding our economy. I discuss how chameleons are created and nurtured by the mistaken notion that one should not judge a model by its assumptions, by the unfounded argument that models should have equal standing until definitive empirical tests are conducted, and by misplaced appeals to "as-if" arguments, mathematical elegance, subtlety, references to assumptions that are "standard in the literature," and the need for tractability. |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3020&r=mfd |
| By: | Berg, Tim Oliver |
| Abstract: | In this paper I assess the ability of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models of different size to forecast comovements of major macroeconomic series in the euro area. Both approaches are compared to unrestricted VARs in terms of multivariate point and density forecast accuracy measures as well as event probabilities. The evidence suggests that BVARs and DSGE models produce accurate multivariate forecasts even for larger datasets. I also detect that BVARs are well calibrated for most events, while DSGE models are poorly calibrated for some. In sum, I conclude that both are useful tools to achieve parameter dimension reduction. |
| Keywords: | BVARs, DSGE Models, Multivariate Forecasting, Large Dataset, Simulation Methods, Euro Area |
| JEL: | C11 C52 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2015–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62405&r=mfd |
| By: | Ahmet Sensoy |
| Abstract: | Taking the cost of trading as a liquidity proxy, we provide evidence of commonality in liquid- ity and look for sources of it in an emerging market, Turkey. We show that the commonality in non-index stocks is higher than the commonality in index stocks. As the position size to trade increases, the strength of commonality is preserved for the former, however it decreases for the latter, which is argued to depend on the dierences in the behaviors of individual and institutional investors. Regarding non-index stocks, we also reveal that buy side liquidity has a stronger commonality than sell side liquidity for small positions to trade, whereas it is the opposite case for large trading positions, a possible outcome of the individual investors' positive bias towards recent market performance. Further analysis on ownership eect shows that for mid-to-large cap rms, institutional investors are the main source of commonality in liquidity as expected, whereas individual investors are the main in uence on commonality for small cap rms. A time varying perspective reveals that among several domestic and global macro-economic variables, liquidity commonality is signicantly aected only by the interest rate decisions and GDP announcements of U.S.; and it tends to increase when the market is falling and/or volatile. |
| Keywords: | Liquidity commonality, cost of trading, index trading, ownership structure, macro-announcements |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bor:wpaper:1523&r=mfd |
| By: | Fernando Corbelle Cacabelos (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela); Liliana Fernandes (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Porto); Angela Troitiño Cobas (Universidade de Santiago de Compostela) |
| Abstract: | É de especial relevancia para unha sociedade, e máis a raíz da crise económica na que están sumidas as sociedades española e portuguesa, coñecer cales son os colectivos máis débiles ou vulnerables ante a mesma. Un dos colectivos que máis protección necesita é o dos máis novos (infancia/adolescencia). Coñecer a situación e as características da poboación infantil/xuvenil é clave para chamar a atención sobre a gravidade da situación e reclamar das autoridades que correspondan a necesaria actuación. O obxectivo da estadía sería realizar unha análise do benestar e/ou pobreza infantil na Eurorrexión Galiza – Norte de Portugal explorando as principais metodoloxías existentes e realizando unha análise empírica desta problemática a través dos microdatos dispoñibles. Ademais, tamén poderemos obter os perfís dos fogares (tipoloxía do fogar, nivel de estudos dos pais, etc.) nos que os máis novos se atopan en maior situación de vulnerabilidade e risco de exclusión social. Tamén cabe a posibilidade de extraer conclusións acerca das diferenzas/similitudes do benestar infantil nas dúas rexións que forman a Eurorexión Galiza-Norte de Portugal. |
| Keywords: | pobreza infantil, pobreza multidimensional, eurorrexión, Galicia,Norte de Portugal, EPF, IDEF |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cap:wpaper:072014&r=mfd |
| By: | Ito, Yutaka; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the economic validity of the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and all-electric vehicles (EVs), employing a cost-benefit analysis from the social point of view. This research assumes the amount of NOx and tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions and gasoline use reduction as the benefits and the purchase costs, infrastructure expenses, and maintenance costs of alternative vehicles as the costs of switching internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to alternative energy vehicles. In addition, this study conducts a sensitivity analysis considering cost reductions in FCV and EV production and increasing costs for CO2 abatement as well as increasing gasoline prices. In summary, the results show that the diffusion of FCVs is not economically beneficial until 2110, even if the FCV purchase cost decreases to that of an ICE vehicle. EV diffusion might be beneficial by 2060 depending on increases in gasoline prices and CO2 abatement costs. |
| Keywords: | Fuel cell vehicle; Electric vehicle; Cost benefit analysis; Sensitivity analysis |
| JEL: | D61 Q42 Q55 R49 |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62362&r=mfd |
| By: | Bowen, T. Renee (Stanford University); Chen, Ying (Johns Hopkins University); Eraslan, Hulya (Rice University); Zapal, Jan (CERGE-EI, Prague and Barcelona GSE) |
| Abstract: | Which budgetary institutions result in efficient provision of public goods? We analyze a model with two parties bargaining over the allocation to a public good each period. Parties place different values on the public good, and these values may change over time. We model a budgetary institution as the rules governing feasible allocations to mandatory and discretionary spending programs. Mandatory spending is enacted by law and remains in effect until changed, and thus induces an endogenous status quo, whereas discretionary spending is periodic appropriations that are not allocated if no new agreement is reached. We show that discretionary only institutions lead to dynamic inefficiencies and mandatory only institutions can lead to both dynamic and static inefficiencies. By introducing flexibility into budgetary institutions, either through a combination of mandatory and discretionary spending, or through a state-contingent mandatory program, we obtain static and dynamic efficiency. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3185&r=mfd |
| By: | António Cipriano A. Pinheiro |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this paper is to present the peculiarities of rural properties evaluation, to clarify some important aspects and to explain a simple methodology to evaluate the compensation due to rural property owners? for land expropriation and for rights-of-way. |
| Keywords: | Avaliações, indemnizações, rústicas, valor justo aquisição, indemnização perda rendimento, indemnização abate prematuro |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:evo:wpecon:01_2015&r=mfd |
| By: | Thomas Bassetti (University of Padova); Filippo Pavesi (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | When considering contributions to electoral campaigns in the U.S., the data reveals that total contributions within industries tend to vary signifi?cantly over time. To explain this evidence, we present a model in which interest groups fi?nance politicians that require funding for campaign advertising in exchange for policy favors. Our model predicts that interest groups related to industries that experience a rise (decline) in popularity will reduce (increase) the amount of resources devoted to campaign ?financing. Intuitively, an industry that suffers from a loss of popularity will face greater costs of obtaining policy favors, since it must provide candidates with greater contributions for campaign advertising, in order to compensate for its decline in reputation. The empirical analysis, based on U.S. House elections between 2000 and 2004, strongly supports this finding. |
| Keywords: | Campaign Finance; Interest Groups; Elections;Popularity |
| JEL: | D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0195&r=mfd |
| By: | Tapas Mishra; Mamata Parhi; Claude Diebolt; Prashant Gupta |
| Abstract: | We re-examine the frequency observed inverted U-Shaped relationship between income and environmental quality (Environmental-Kuznets-Curve, EKC) by introducing the roles of institutional quality and distributional heterogeneity. A panel quantile regression of 127 economies run over a period of four decades demonstrates that once endogeneity bias is corrected and heterogeneity in the effects of income and institutional quality is introduced, EKC tends to disappear at higher quantiles of emission but proves its existence at lower quantiles. The non-uniqueness of EKC is also confirmed by robustness checks where various instruments for institutional quality as well as an alternative measure of emission are introduced. |
| Keywords: | Income and environment, Endogeneity bias, Institutional heterogeneity, Instrumental variable, Panel quantile regression. |
| JEL: | Q56 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2015-05&r=mfd |
| By: | Cavalieri, Duccio |
| Abstract: | This is a theoretical analysis of structural interdependence in monetary economics. Some recent attempts to integrate money and finance in the theory of income and expenditure are critically examined. The Sraffian dichotomic interpretation of classical political economy is refused. A version of the classical surplus approach devoid of separating connotations is sketched, where flows and stocks are consistently reconciled and net financial wealth vanishes in the aggregate. Marx’s law of value is criticized and set aside, as historically outdated by the advent of cognitive capitalism. New Consensus and New Neoclassical Synthesis macroeconomic models are criticized from an orthodox Keynesian point of view. Two further results emerge from the analysis: the illegitimacy of Marx’s asymmetrical treatment of constant and variable capital in the theory of value and the suggestion of a correct method for measuring the unit cost of real capital. Some reasons for reconsidering in this perspective the traditional approaches to monetary theory and policy are indicated. |
| Keywords: | monetary theory; monetary policy; fiscal policy; structural interdependence; Sraffian dichotomy; post-Keynesian economics; SFCA; MMT; MEV |
| JEL: | B22 E12 E44 E52 M41 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62403&r=mfd |
| By: | Ivan S. Grigoriev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anna A. Dekalchuk (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The early 2000s marked a surge in uncertainty in Russian politics caused by the succession crisis and the profound political turnover it triggered. This uncertainty could resolve in a number of ways, each leading to a different political development. We trace the actual way out of this uncertainty and suggest that the major factor to condition the further regime trajectory was the way reforms were conducted. The article questions the teleological approach that sees government as knowingly and purposefully building autocracy, and contributes to the tradition emphasizing the plurality of possible regime developments (Golosov 2011) and the role of contingency therein (Hale 2004) by providing a more systematic treatment of such contingency. We use insights from basic coordination game theory and cognitive institutionalism to show how local reform practices become accepted as a trusted way of interaction by political actors and stick with the regime in a path dependent manner. This intuition is substantiated with a case-study of pensions and labour reforms. Course of these reforms determined the major features of the Putin regime, such as building up a single party of power, crowding out the political market, opposition decay, and informal institutionalisation |
| Keywords: | autocratic learning; policy feedback; uncertainty; labour reform; pensions reform; Putin's Russia. |
| JEL: | H55 J58 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:24/ps/2015&r=mfd |
| By: | Yusuf Varli |
| Abstract: | Conditions of beating the market is always top of the interests of investors throughout the history. In this study we aim to find who beats the market using a special trade and portfolio data from a stock exchange namely Borsa Ýstanbul. To do so, we define the market beating conditions by using investor based data. Instead of market data, investor based data provides us to make stronger analyses. We initially find that 87% of individual and 92% of institutional investors get returns in a random way. Then we investigate the rest of investors to determine who consistently beats the market and gets abnormal returns. And we mainly find that the market beating gets longer with increasing portfolio size and diversification, while it gets shorter with increasing turnover. Additionally, longer beating length means higher shares of women, old adults, funds and foreigner. Furthermore, we analyze the return performance of investors in our study and show that the picture becomes reversed compared to beating length criteria. Finally, we compare the insiders with other investors to understand whether the market is efficient in the strong form or not. And the findings indicate that the insiders cannot be differentiated from other investors. Therefore, we end up with the evidence that there is strong form efficiency in Borsa Ýstanbul. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral Finance, Overconfidence, Disposition Effect, Buy-Sell Imbalance, Loss Aversion, Portfolio Size Effect, Gender Effect, Age Effect. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bor:wpaper:1422&r=mfd |
| By: | Michael Bleaney; Mo Tian; Lin Yin |
| Abstract: | Several de facto exchange rate regime classifications have been widely used in empirical research, but they are known to disagree with one another to a disturbing extent. We dissect the algorithms employed and argue that they can be significantly improved. We implement the improvements, and show that there is a far higher agreement rate between the modified classifications. We conclude that the current pessimism about de facto exchange rate regime classification schemes is unwarranted. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate regimes, trade, volatility JEL codes: F31 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notecp:15/01&r=mfd |
| By: | F. Delbono; L. Lambertini |
| Abstract: | Within a simple model of homogeneous oligopoly, we show that the traditional ranking between Bertrand and Cournot equilibria may be reversed. For price setting entails a continuum of price equilibria under convex variable costs, departure from marginal cost pricing may be observed. As a consequence, Bertrand-Nash equilibrium profi ts (welfare) may be higher (lower) than Cournot-Nash ones. The reversal of the standard rankings occurs when pricing strategies mimic collusive behaviour. |
| JEL: | D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp994&r=mfd |
| By: | Dominique Bruhn |
| Abstract: | Against the background of a changing landscape of trade and investment governance in the 21st century, characterised by the proliferation of deep preferential trade agreements (PTAs), this paper econometrically tests the importance of global value chain trade and regulatory differences in explaining the likelihood of a country pair to include an (enforceable) investment provision in the PTA. The spatial probit analysis, based on Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulation, reveals that higher production network trade and strongly differing legal frameworks are indeed associated with a higher likelihood of including (enforceable) investment provisions. This is true even when controlling for interdependence between countries and conducting a variety of sensitivity checks, underscoring the importance of deep integration in the context of global value chains. However, when excluding EU countries from the sample, investment coverage and enforceability is rather driven by positive spatial interdependence between countries, raising the question whether the focus on global value chain trade and regulatory differences is something characteristic of EU trade policy making. |
| Keywords: | preferential trade agreement, investment, global value chain, production network trade, spatial probit, Bayesian econometrics |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:142&r=mfd |
| By: | Bulow, Jeremy (Stanford University); Klemperer, Paul (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new form of hybrid capital for banks, Equity Recourse Notes (ERNs), which ameliorate booms and bust by creating counter-cyclical incentives for banks to raise capital, and so encourage bank lending in bad times. They avoid the flaws of existing contingent convertible bonds (cocos)--in particular, they convert more credibly--so ERNs also help solve the too-big-to-fail problem: rather than forcing banks to increase equity, we should require the same or larger capital increase but permit it to be in the form of either equity or ERNs--this also gives some choice to those who claim (rightly or wrongly) that equity is more costly than debt. ERNs can be introduced within the current regulatory system, but also provide a way to reduce the existing system's heavy reliance on measures of regulatory-capital. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3098&r=mfd |
| By: | Burgelman, Robert A. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the phenomenon of "built to become:" an open-ended ongoing process for which there is no grand ex ante plan possible and which unfolds through a series of transformations in the course of the strategic evolution of long-lived companies. It develops a "strategic leadership" framework to examine and explain corporate becoming. This framework involves (1) defining the key tasks of strategic leadership and (2) identifying four key elements of the company's strategic leadership capability: (i) adopting a strategic leadership regime that integrates top-down and bottom-up strategy processes; (ii) managing the often tortuous interplays between a changing corporate strategy and the existing corporate culture; (iii) balancing strategic resource allocation between fit (with the existing product-market environment) and evolvability (the capacity to seek out new viable product-market environments) in the internal ecology of strategy-making; and (iv) maintaining constructive relationships in the dynamic interactions between the CEO and the board of directors. The paper presents the conceptual foundation of a book entitled Built to Become that examines the strategic evolution of Hewlett Packard as a long-lived company. |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3115&r=mfd |
| By: | Irena Kogan |
| Abstract: | This study aims at exploring whether host-country immigration policies related to the selection of immigrants with regard to human capital and other characteristics relevant for the labour market are effective and result in these immigrants’ more favourable economic integration. The focus in on immigration policies in two groups of countries. We compare liberal regimes (Ireland and the UK) which policies aimed at attracting highly-skilled immigrants to meet these countries’ economic needs in highly-skilled jobs with those of Southern European countries (Italy, Spain and Greece), which pursued more lax and unselective policies, trying to attract labour force for low-skilled jobs in their countries’ economies. Economic immigrants are expected to have favourable employment entry chances in each group of countries, not least due to the fact that the supply of immigrants apparently met the labour demand in host countries’ economies. We also expect that more selective policies attracting better-qualified immigrants in Ireland and the UK would lead to these immigrants’ better chances of higher-quality employment. |
| Keywords: | immigration policies, immigrants’ selection, immigrants’ human capital, immigrants’ labour market integration, comparative research |
| JEL: | J14 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1505&r=mfd |
| By: | Marinovic, Ivan (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | I study the efficiency of three prominent accounting rules in a delegated bidding setting where bidders' incentives are tied to both accounting income and economic surplus. Trade efficiency is maximized (minimized) by the value-in-use method (historical cost method). The exit-value method generates an accounting based winner's curse that results in fire-sale-like valuations. Yet, in the limit, as the number of bidders grows large, the efficiency of the exit-value method converges to that of the value-in-use method. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3251&r=mfd |
| By: | Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Kobielarz, Michal L.; Uras, Rasim Burak |
| Abstract: | The European sovereign debt crisis is characterized by the simultaneous surge in borrowing costs in the GIPS countries after 2008. We present a theory, which can account for the behavior of sovereign bond spreads in Southern Europe between 1998 and 2012. Our key theoretical argument is related to the bail-out guarantee provided by a monetary union, which endogenously varies with the number of member countries in sovereign debt trouble. We incorporate this theoretical foundation in an otherwise standard small open economy DSGE model and explain (i) the convergence of interest rates on sovereign bonds following the European monetary integration in late 1990s, and (ii) - following the heightened default risk of Greece - the sudden surge in interest rates in countries with relatively sound economic and financial fundamentals. We calibrate the model to match the behavior of the Portuguese economy over the period of 1998 to 2012. |
| Keywords: | bail-out; contagion; interest rate spreads; sovereign debt crisis |
| JEL: | F33 F34 F36 F41 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10459&r=mfd |
| By: | World Bank; Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Economy |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Access of Poor to Social Services Poverty Reduction - Equity and Development Poverty Reduction - Inequality Poverty Reduction - Poverty Monitoring & Analysis |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:21324&r=mfd |
| By: | Ryan Chahrour (Boston College); Gaetano Gaballo (Banque de France, Monetary Policy Division) |
| Abstract: | We show that non-trivial aggregate fluctuations may originate with vanishingly- small common shocks to either information or fundamentals. These "sentiment" fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling variation in either first-order beliefs (as in Benhabib et al., 2015) or higher-order beliefs (as in Angeletos and La'O, 2013), due to an endogenous signal structure. We analyze out-of-equilibrium best-response functions in the underlying coordination game to study whether sentiment equilibria are stable outcomes of a convergent process. We nd that limiting sentiment equilibria are generally unattainable under both higher-order belief and adaptive learning dynamics, whereas equilibria without sentiment shocks show strong stability properties. Away from the limit case, however, multiple noisy rational expectations equilibria may be stable. |
| Keywords: | imperfect information, animal spirits, expectational coordination |
| JEL: | D82 D83 E3 |
| Date: | 2015–02–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:873&r=mfd |
| By: | Ralph-C. Bayer (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Harald Oberhofer (University of Salzburg); Hannes Winner (University of Salzburg and Austrian Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical evidence to explain the occurrence of tax amnesties. We treat amnesties as endogenous, resulting from a strategic game between many taxpayers discounting future payments from punishment and a government that trades off costs and benefits of amnesty programs. From the model we derive hypotheses about the factors that should influence the occurrence of tax amnesties. For our empirical test we rely on amnesty information from US States between 1981 and 2011. In line with the theoretical model, our empirical findings suggest that the likelihood of amnesties is mainly driven by a government’s fiscal requirements and the taxpayers’ expectations on future amnesties. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1402&r=mfd |
| By: | Chambers, Christopher P. (University of CA, San Diego); Lambert, Nicolas S. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We answer the following question: At t = 1, an expert has (probabilistic) information about a random outcome X. In addition, the expert will obtain further information about X as time passes, up to some time t = T + 1 at which X will be publicly revealed. (How) Can a protocol be devised that induces the expert, as a strict best response, to reveal at the outset his prior assessment of both X and the information flows he anticipates and, subsequently, what information he privately receives? (The protocol can provide the expert with payoffs that depend only on the realization of X, as well as any decisions he may take.) We show that this can be done with the following sort of protocol: At the penultimate time t = T, the expert chooses a payoff function from a menu of such functions, where the menu available to him was chosen by him at time t = T - 1 from a menu of such menus, and so forth. We show that any protocol that affirmatively answers our question can be approximated by a protocol of the form described. We show how these results can be extended from discrete time to continuous time problems of this sort. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3036&r=mfd |
| By: | Cremer, Helmuth; De Donder, Philippe; Rodriguez, Frank |
| Abstract: | This note synthesises several research papers that IDEI has produced together with Royal Mail economists and others since 2000 and summarises their findings on the welfare and pricing implications of opening the postal market to competition, when the national postal operator operates under different regulatory requirements (e.g. price constraints or universal service obligations) and according to the competition regime (such as access only, bypass only, access and bypass) which emerges in the market following its liberalisation.4 The understanding of the postal sector and of likely effects of different types of regulation requires taking appropriate account of the specific nature of this industry. We then start this note (section 2) by mentioning the most important characteristics of the sector, which renders it different from other network industries such as telecoms or energy. We then summarise in section 3 the research papers. All papers share the same form: they start with a specific research question, build a formal model incorporating the relevant characteristics of the postal sector given this research question, and then provide numerical results based on a calibration of this model to a generic European postal market. The calibration assumptions are not from a particular postal operator, but are reflective, in our view, of the general nature of postal markets and cost structures found in published empirical studies. The same calibration assumptions are used in all papers, except when assumptions are updated to reflect the results of newly available empirical studies. In most of the papers we have checked the robustness of our results through sensitivity testing of key calibration values. However, we should stress that these results are indicative and in any particular country, for example the UK, a more detailed empirical exercise would be necessary to model prospective effects directly. Section 4 concludes with a brief summary of the main results surveyed here. |
| Keywords: | postal; regulation; welfare; pricing |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:29060&r=mfd |
| By: | Freshwater, David; Leising, Jordan D. |
| Abstract: | n the paper we provide an explanation of the persistence of the commodity titles in US farm bills that is grounded in core theories of the policy process from the political science literature. The political science literature explains policy continuity and policy change from a number of different perspectives and we use these to explain why the commodity titles of farm bills have persisted in the face of considerable opposition and how in response the Agriculture Committees have introduced incremental change to the content of farm bills to facilitate each bill’s passage. Unlike the standard approach of agricultural economists which focuses on the broader national economic efficiency impacts of farm programs, we concentrate on, narrower local political forces that affect individual Members of the Congress, and on the legislative process that created each farm bill. |
| Keywords: | US farm policy, farm bill, political economy, policy continuity and change, Agricultural and Food Policy, Public Economics, N52, Q18, B52, |
| Date: | 2015–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ukysps:198782&r=mfd |
| By: | Elizabeth Brown Michelle K. Derr |
| Abstract: | Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) agencies are operating in a challenging post-recession environment, with growing program demands and shrinking state and local budgets. |
| Keywords: | TANF, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Recipients, Post-Recession Environment, Family Support |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2015–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:7bce02a0954b43ad941fe0875bbbb323&r=mfd |
| By: | Soumia Zenasni |
| Abstract: | Increased globalization over the last two decades has led to strong growth in international business activity and international financial integration. This phenomenon covers a wide array of economic activities, including regional and international integration, investment and trade, international financial shocks and disturbances. This paper takes stock of current trends in regional financial integration and trade liberalization processes for the case of Maghreb countries. It aims also to examine the effects of these recent trends on economic growth in an era of growing globalization and frequent financial shocks. Using Multivariate Threshold Vector Autoregressive (MVTAR) estimation with data from 1990 to 2012, this study argues that the greater and deeper regional financial integration and trade will have positive repercussions for each Maghreb country. In addition, estimation results show that the regional financial integration process plays a positive role in enlarging the borders of countries as well as the market size of each country and, consequently, in stimulating economic growth. Finally, we can assert that the study argues that political and structural impediments continue to hamper regional integration. |
| Keywords: | Regional financial integration, trade libaralization, globalization, Maghreb countries, multivariate threshold analysis |
| JEL: | F36 E44 G01 C3 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:145&r=mfd |
| By: | Heindl, Peter; Löschel, Andreas |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature on distributional effects of energy and carbon taxation with focus on microsimulation models. Most studies find that direct energy and carbon taxation tends to be regressive. Regressive effects occur mostly with respect to taxation of electricity or space heating. Taxation of transportation fuels show less regressive, neutral, or even progressive effects. Adequate revenue recycling often allows for neutralisation or full elimination of regressive effects so that energy and carbon tax reforms can be progressive. Some studies find evidence for the existence of a double dividend. There seems to be an efficiency-equity trade-off in revenue recycling, i.e. whether to foster growth or to assist low-income households. While a large number of studies on advanced economies are available, there clearly is a gap with regard to evidence for developing countries. Another gap relates to the lack of documentation on the challenges of incorporating macroeconomic models and long-term modelling perspectives in microsimulation. Both aspects can be of great importance with respect to the design of green growth policies. Thoughtful incorporation of social considerations, including aspects of poverty in modelling approaches could enhance the existing instruments of exante policy assessments since poverty is a tangible concept which is well-known, understandable, and openly observable for citizens and policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Distributional Effects,Environmental Tax Reform,Green Growth,Energy Poverty,Microsimulation |
| JEL: | H23 H31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:15012&r=mfd |
| By: | Uri Gneezy; Alex Imas; John List |
| Abstract: | We introduce a simple, easy to implement instrument for jointly eliciting risk and ambiguity attitudes. Using this instrument, we structurally estimate a two-parameter model of preferences. Our findings indicate that ambiguity aversion is significantly overstated when risk neutrality is assumed. This highlights the interplay between risk and ambiguity attitudes as well as the importance of joint estimation. In addition, over our stakes levels we find no difference in the estimated parameters when incentives are real or hypothetical, raising the possibility that a simple hypothetical question can provide insights into an individuals preferences over ambiguity in such economic environments. |
| JEL: | C9 C91 C92 C93 D81 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20982&r=mfd |
| By: | Robert Novy-Marx |
| Abstract: | Momentum in firm fundamentals, i.e., earnings momentum, explains the performance of strategies based on price momentum. Earnings surprise measures subsume past performance in cross sectional regressions of returns on firm characteristics, and the time-series performance of price momentum strategies is fully explained by their covariances with earnings momentum strategies. Controlling for earnings surprises when constructing price momentum strategies significantly reduces their performance, without reducing their high volatilities. Controlling for past performance when constructing earnings momentum strategies reduces their volatilities, and eliminates the crashes strongly associated with momentum of all types, without reducing the strategies' high average returns. While past performance does not have independent power predicting the cross section of expected returns, it does predicts stock comovements, and is thus important for explain cross sectional variation in realized returns. |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20984&r=mfd |
| By: | Atabati, Omid; Farzad, Babak |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamics of a game-theoretic network formation model that yields large-scale small-world networks. So far, mostly stochastic frameworks have been utilized to explain the emergence of these networks. On the other hand, it is natural to seek for game-theoretic network formation models in which links are formed due to strategic behaviors of individuals, rather than based on probabilities. Inspired by Even-Dar and Kearns' model [8], we consider a more realistic framework in which the cost of establishing each link is dynamically determined during the course of the game. Moreover, players are allowed to put transfer payments on the formation and maintenance of links. Also, they must pay a maintenance cost to sustain their direct links during the game. We show that there is a small diameter of at most 4 in the general set of equilibrium networks in our model. We achieved an economic mechanism and its dynamic process for individuals which firstly; unlike the earlier model, the outcomes of players' interactions or the equilibrium networks are guaranteed to exist. Furthermore, these networks coincide with the outcome of pairwise Nash equilibrium in network formation. Secondly; it generates large-scale networks that have a rational and strategic microfoundation and demonstrate the main characterization of small degree of separation in real-life social networks. Furthermore, we provide a network formation simulation that generates small-world networks. |
| Keywords: | network formation; linking game with transfer payments; pairwise stability; pairwise Nash equilibrium; small-world phenomenon |
| JEL: | C79 D85 |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62529&r=mfd |
| By: | Kota Kitagawa; Arata Uemura |
| Abstract: | This article traces the pattern of conflict, collaboration, and compromise among trade unions, employers, political parties, executive branches, and economic research institutes in Germany, all of which have different stances regarding the introduction of a general statutory minimum wage there. This article examines the degree of political intervention in collective bargaining autonomy. First, it identifies the factors that bring about differences in stance. Second, it addresses the issue of actor independence—in particular, that of service trade unions—despite the placing of institutional factors, to establish a reference standard for the debate behind forming social movement alliances. Third, it examines the manner in which the policy’s economic legitimacy is earned. We conclude that the emergence of a statutory minimum wage in Germany reflects the dynamic mix of postwar political practices in its own context with the effects of modern neoliberal economic policies. |
| Keywords: | Minimum Wage, Collective Bargaining Autonomy, Germany, Coalition Agreement, Social Movement Unionism, Varieties of Capitalism |
| JEL: | J08 J58 K31 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:dpaper:e-14-015&r=mfd |
| By: | Frenzel, Helen; Weber, Tina |
| Abstract: | The paper captures the findings of a study on employer views regarding the importance and feasibility of the implementation of circular migration policies. It is based on desk review and interviews with employers’ organisations, individual employers, public employment services and ministries and agencies responsible for coordinating international migration of health-care personnel. Interviews focused on the experience in a selected number of countries (Finland, Germany, Ireland and the United Kingdom), which are among the destination countries for health-care professionals from the Philippines and India. |
| Keywords: | nurse, medical personnel, labour migration, return migration, international migration, migrant worker, management attitude, health service, EU countries, infirmière, personnel médical, migrations de main-d'oeuvre, migration de retour, migration internationale, travailleur migrant, attitude patronale, service de santé, pays de l'UE, enfermera, personal médico, migraciones laborales, retorno de los migrantes, migración internacional, trabajador migrante, actitud de la dirección, servicio de salud, países de la UE |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:486092&r=mfd |
| By: | Rober Stehrer; Roman Stöllinger |
| Abstract: | There is evidence that Europe’s manufacturing activity is increasingly concentrated in a Central European (CE) core which the IMF in a recent publication also refers to as the German-Central European supply chain. This CE manufacturing core is dominated by Germany and in addition comprises Austria and the four Visegrád countries (the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland). The case of Austria is particularly interesting because it is neither the primary technology leader within the country group, nor is it an offshoring destination and therefore takes an intermediate position. This study provides further empirical evidence for the growing concentration of European industrial production in the CE manufacturing core and explores in detail the structure and development of the regional supply chains over the period 1995-2011. This includes an analysis of the impact of international production integration on the value added share of manufacturing in the economy. The econometric results point towards differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core and the remaining EU Member States. Focusing on value added generated by the manufacturing sector, the industries which build the backbone of this regional manufacturing cluster are identified. Finally, the report investigates which factors are conducive to the intensification of international production sharing. In line with the notion of a production-investment-services nexus, it is found that (inward) FDI in the manufacturing sector is associated with higher degrees of production integration. Again, the econometric evidence suggests that some of the factors explaining international production sharing, such as the level of export sophistication, have differentiated effects for the members of the CE manufacturing core as compared to the other EU countries. |
| Keywords: | European manufacturing, production integration, global value chains, structural change |
| JEL: | F14 F15 L16 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2015:i:vi-002&r=mfd |
| By: | Utkarsh Seetha |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Reeling under an average AT & C losses of around 33%, it is quite impossible for power distribution sector to keep up the desired economic pace without major reforms in the Power sector, especially in Distribution. System Integrator has been working closely in Power distribution sector to address AT & C loss reduction, bring transparency, improve customer satisfaction and increase employee productivity through right convergence of IT & Automation. Technology innovation can only benefit the sector and system integration has major role to play in empowering the power distribution utilities. There is a huge need for specialized, customized and upgraded system solution for the power sector and System Integration Power solutions can help utilities to make a significant leap in Field Automation and reducing their Aggregate Technical and Commercial losses. The objective of Meter Data Acquisition Solution Provider is to collect meter data of DT and consumer meters at desired frequencies remotely and make available for DISCOM operations. Keywords: Data Concentrator Unit (DCU), Meter Data Acquisition Solution (MDAS), Automatic Meter Reading (AMR), Common Automatic Meter Reading (CAMR) |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:237636&r=mfd |
| By: | Nicolini, Juan Pablo (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | Most economic models used by central banks prior to the recent financial crisis omitted two fundamental elements: financial markets and liquidity measures. Those models therefore failed to foresee the crisis or understand the policy reaction that followed. In contrast to more orthodox models, we develop a theory in which credit markets and measures of liquidity are central. Our model emphasizes the role of collateral constraints on credit lines and the role of money in transactions, and it can be used to study the effects of alternative monetary policies during and after a financial crisis. A key insight from our approach is that a credit crisis characterized by tightened collateral constraints can cause a bout of deflation that exacerbates the constraints and reduces investment, productivity, employment and economic output. Policymakers can curb deflation and soften the recession by issuing more bonds and money, exactly as U.S. fiscal and monetary officials did in 2008. But our model also reveals an important trade-off in the aftermath of the crisis. Additional liquidity injections necessary to maintain low inflation will partially crowd out private investment and thereby slow economic recovery. The cost of curbing the recession’s depth is thus to extend its duration. |
| Date: | 2015–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmep:15-2&r=mfd |
| By: | Hugo Erken; Eric van Loon; Wouter Verbeek |
| Abstract: | The Great Recession has caused unemployment in the Netherlands to rise from 3.1% in 2008 to over 7% at the beginning of 2014. Structural imbalances caused by labour mismatch could be one of the explanations underlying this high rate. The goal of this paper is to examine this hypothesis. We adopt an eclectic approach to study if mismatch has increased during the Great Recession. First, we examine the development of the Beveridge curve. We estimate so-called “steady-state†Beveridge curves based on underlying labour market flows. Outward shifts of these curves are associated with decreasing matching efficiency. Second, we construct a mismatch index which enables us to calculate the contribution of sector mismatch to the unemployment level. Our analyses show little support for the hypothesis that mismatch currently is a problem on the Dutch labour market. At the aggregate level, the Beveridge curve has not shifted outwards. Furthermore, at most one-seventh of Dutch unemployment can be attributed to sector mismatch, which is comparable to or below periods prior to the Great Recession. |
| JEL: | E20 E24 J63 J69 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:303&r=mfd |
| By: | Thomas Giebe; Miyu Lee; ; |
| Abstract: | There are legal grounds to hear competitors in merger control proceedings, and competitor involvement has gained significance. To what extent this is economically sensible is our question. The competition authority applies some welfare standard while the competitor cares about its own profit. In general, but not always, this implies a conflict of interest. We formally model this setting with cheap talk signaling games, where hearing the competitor might convey valuable information to the authority, but also serve the competitor’s own interests. We find that the authority will mostly have to ignore the competitor but, depending on the authority’s own prior information, strictly following the competitor’s selfish recommendation will improve the authority’s decision. Complementary to our analysis, we provide empirical data of competitor involvement in EU merger cases and give an overview of the legal discussion in the EU and US. |
| Keywords: | merger control, antitrust, European Commission, signaling, efficiency, competitors, rivals |
| JEL: | G34 K21 L4 C73 L2 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-011&r=mfd |
| By: | Eathington, Liesl |
| Abstract: | Federal definitions of core-based metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas (CBSAs) recognize the importance of large, central places in broader regional economies. Although CBSAs are officially defined for statistical reporting purposes only, the construct is widely used in regional science as a framework for analyzing economic change. Metro and micro area designations, by definition, exclude large swaths of territory often colloquially described as “rural.†Half of all counties in Midwestern states and more than one third of all U.S. counties fall outside of a CBSA. While other county typologies exist to help characterize this remaining, undifferentiated space, few if any operationalize the importance of small central places as anchors for a broader region. This paper extends the concept of core-based areas definitions to include “nanoplitan†counties, which contain an urbanized area between 5,000 and 9,999 residents, and “picopolitan†counties, which contain an urbanized area between 2,500 and 4,999 residents. The paper examines whether these types of counties differ meaningfully in their economic structure and patterns of recent change. If so, an extended core-based typology may be useful for applied regional analysis and rural economic development outreach efforts. |
| Keywords: | county typology; regionalism |
| Date: | 2015–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:38991&r=mfd |
| By: | Simonson, Itamar (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | A main objective of Behavioral Decision Theory (BDT) research--demonstrating that economic theory often fails as a description of decision making as well as gaining insights into systematic influences on judgment and choice--has been largely accomplished. This research program, published in psychology, decision making, marketing, and other fields, has had unique characteristics that combined criteria employed in economics and psychology. Now that the prominent portion of the BDT agenda has been largely completed, it is time to consider whether the BDT and greater judgment and decision making (JDM) community in marketing will pursue a new direction or just follow the topics of the day (e.g., current topics in social psychology, public policy applications of previous JDM findings). I propose a broad research area--the interaction between the evolving information environment and consumer JDM--that raises a wide range of important questions and may fit the skills and interests of BDT researchers. In addition to raising new JDM concepts and problems, the proposed area can lead to major revisions of long established frameworks of consumer behavior and marketing. It is far from obvious, however, that BDT researchers/marketing professors, who are accustomed to studying general purpose JDM topics and are aligned with the broader JDM and social psychology community, will be receptive to a consumer-centric research program. |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:2142&r=mfd |
| By: | Cherrie Bucknor |
| Abstract: | By most measures, the educational attainment of blacks is currently at the highest it has ever been. After decades of stagnation, high school completion rates for blacks have increased rapidly since 2000. This issue brief will focus on the high school status completion rates of blacks ages 20 to 24 since 1975. |
| Keywords: | education, high school graduation, inequality, racial disparties |
| JEL: | I I2 I24 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2015-06&r=mfd |
| By: | Guriev, Sergei; Treisman, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We develop an informational theory of dictatorship. Dictators survive not because of their use of force or ideology but because they convince the public--rightly or wrongly--that they are competent. Citizens do not observe the dictator's type but infer it from signals inherent in their living standards, state propaganda, and messages sent by an informed elite via independent media. If citizens conclude the dictator is incompetent, they overthrow him in a revolution. The dictator can invest in making convincing state propaganda, censoring independent media, co-opting the elite, or equipping police to repress attempted uprisings -- but he must finance such spending with taxes that depress the public's living standards. We show that incompetent dictators can survive as long as economic shocks are not too large. Moreover, their reputations for competence may grow over time. Censorship and co-optation of the elite are substitutes, but both are complements of propaganda. Repression of protests is a substitute for all the other techniques. In some equilibria the ruler uses propaganda and co-opts the elite; in others, propaganda is combined with censorship. The multiplicity of equilibria emerges due to coordination failure among members of the elite. We show that repression is used against ordinary citizens only as a last resort when the opportunities to survive through co-optation, censorship, and propaganda are exhausted. In the equilibrium with censorship, difficult economic times prompt higher relative spending on censorship and propaganda. The results illuminate tradeoffs faced by various recent dictatorships. |
| Keywords: | censorship; dictatorship; propaganda |
| JEL: | D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10454&r=mfd |
| By: | Mtiraoui, Abderraouf |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper to study the direct and indirect influence of corruption on economic indicators like the human indicator. Indeed, it would be very important to clarify the impact of control of corruption on human capital while considering the direct and indirect effects of the control of corruption on human capital by applying a regression analysis. We treat the main channels of direct transmissions of corruption as the degree of openness and indirect channels we quote then investment, trade policy. Finally, we analyze the significance of variables in explaining the effects of control of corruption on human capital by estimates of models with panel data in two different areas to make a MENA and OECD benchmarking. |
| Keywords: | Control of corruption, Human Capital, Economic Growth, Estimation, Models with Panel Data, MENA, OECD. |
| JEL: | I25 |
| Date: | 2014–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:60874&r=mfd |
| By: | Plambeck, Erica (Stanford University); Bayati, Mohsen (Stanford University); Ang, Erjie (?); Kwasnick, Sara (?); Aratow, Mike (?) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a Combined Method (combining fluid model estimators and statistical learning) to forecast the wait time for low-acuity patients in an Emergency Department, and describes the implementation of the Combined Method at the San Mateo Medical Center (SMMC). In historical data from four different hospitals, the Combined Method is more accurate than stand-alone fluid model estimators and statistical learning, and also more accurate than the rolling averages that hospitals currently use to forecast the ED wait time. In historical data and post-implementation data for SMMC, the Combined Method reduces the mean squared forecast error by a nearly third relative to the best rolling average, notably by correcting errors of underestimation in which a patient waits for longer than the forecast. The paper provides a general recipe by which any hospital with an Electronic Medical Records (EMR) can implement the Combined Method. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3187&r=mfd |
| By: | Besbes, Omar (Columbia University); Gur, Yonatan (Stanford University); Zeevi, Assaf (Columbua University) |
| Abstract: | A new class of online services allows publishers to direct readers from articles they are currently reading to other web-based content they may be interested in. A key feature of such a dynamic recommendation service is that users interact with the provider along their browsing path. While the click-through rate of articles (a myopic performance indicator) is often the key metric accounted for in the recommendation process, we quantify the performance improvement that one may capture by accounting for the potential future path of users. To that end, using a large data set of user path history at major media sites, we develop a representation of content along two key dimensions: clickability, the likelihood to click to an article when it is recommended; and engageability, the likelihood to click from an article when it hosts a recommendation. We introduce a class of path-focused heuristics that leverages engageability values, quantify its performance and then test its impact when integrated into the operating system of a worldwide leading provider of content recommendations. We conduct a live experiment to compare the performance of these heuristics (adjusting for the limitations of real-time information flow) to that of current algorithms used by the service provider. The experiment documents the improvement relative to current practice, which is attributable to accounting for the future path of users through the engageability parameters when optimizing recommendations. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3148&r=mfd |
| By: | Michael P Devereux (University of Oxford); John Vella (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | The most significant problems with the existing system for taxing the profit of multinational companies stem from two related sources. First, the underlying “1920s compromise” for allocating the rights to tax profit between countries is both inappropriate and increasingly hard to implement in a modern economic setting. Second, because the system is based on taxing mobile activities, it invites countries to compete with each other to attract economic activity and to favour “domestic” companies. The OECD Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) initiative essentially seeks to close loopholes rather than to re-examine these fundamental problems. As a consequence, it is unlikely to generate a stable long-run tax system. We briefly outline some more fundamental alternative reforms. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:btx:wpaper:1425&r=mfd |
| By: | Brocas, Isabelle; Carrillo, Juan D; Combs, T. Dalton; Kodaverdian, Niree |
| Abstract: | Employing a variant of GARP, we study consistency in aging by comparing the choices of younger adults (YA) and older adults (OA) in a 'simple', two-good and a `complex' three-good condition. We find that OA perform worse than YA in the complex condition but similar in the simple condition. Working memory scores correlate significantly with consistency levels. Finally, OA are more prone to use simple heuristics than YA, and this helps them behave consistently in the simple condition. Our findings suggest that the age-related deterioration of neural faculties responsible for working memory is an obstacle for consistent decision-making. |
| Keywords: | aging; complexity; laboratory experiments; revealed preferences |
| JEL: | C91 D11 D12 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10457&r=mfd |
| By: | Julian Donaubauer; Birgit Meyer; Peter Nunnekamp |
| Abstract: | We raise the hypothesis that aid specifically targeted at economic infrastructure helps developing countries attract higher FDI inflows through improving their endowment with infrastructure in transportation, communication, energy and finance. By performing 3SLS estimations we explicitly account for dependencies between three structural equations on the allocation of sector-specific aid, the determinants of infrastructure, and the determinants of FDI. We find fairly strong and robust evidence that targeted aid promotes FDI indirectly through the infrastructure channel. In addition, aid in infrastructure appears to have surprisingly strong direct effects on FDI. |
| Keywords: | aid effectiveness, sector-specific aid, foreign direct investment, infrastructure |
| JEL: | F21 F35 O18 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:144&r=mfd |
| By: | Kwasnicki, Witold |
| Abstract: | An attempt is made to answer some important, controversial and provocative questions: What is social innovation? Do we need to distinguish 'social innovation' in the general category of innovation? To what extend 'social economy' and 'social innovation' can be considered as a new paradigm in the study of socio-economic development? Does 'social economy' is a natural step in the development of civilization associated mainly with increasing prosperity and leisure time in more economically developed countries? Podjęta zostanie próba odpowiedzi na pewne ważne, kontrowersyjne i prowokacyjne pytania: Czym są innowacje społeczne? (Przegląd różnorodnych definicji innowacji społecznych) Czy potrzebne jest nam wyróżnianie ‘innowacji społecznych’ w ogólnej kategorii innowacji? Czy ‘ekonomia społeczna’ i ‘innowacje społeczne’ mogą być uznane za nowe paradygmaty w badaniach społeczno-ekonomicznych? Na ile ‘gospodarka społeczna’ jest naturalnym etapem w rozwoju cywilizacyjnym związanym głównie z coraz większym dobrobytem i większą ilością czasu wolnego w krajach rozwiniętych gospodarczo? |
| Keywords: | social innovation, social economy, paradigm |
| JEL: | H00 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62419&r=mfd |
| By: | Ogneva, Maria (?); Piotroski, Joseph D. (Stanford University); Zakolyukina, Anastasia A. (?) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new measure of a firm's exposure to systematic distress risk--the probability of a recession at the time of a firm's failure. For stocks in the top quintile of the probability of failure, a median hedge portfolio based on our measure generates a positive risk premium of 5%-8% per annum. Our results differ from the previously documented distress-risk anomaly--a negative correlation between the probability of failure and stock returns. We argue that the probability of failure does not capture systematic distress risk well because it does not differentiate between failures occurring in recessions and expansions. |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3252&r=mfd |
| By: | David Boisclair; Jean-Yves Duclos; Steeve Marchand; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | We use simulation methods to analyze the impacts of certain proposed reforms to improve the coverage of longevity risk. This risk, which may in principle be adequately covered by classic defined-benefit pension plans, has been of particular interest in Quebec for some years now, notably due to the decline in the participation to such plans. Recent proposals which aim to increase the coverage of longevity risk mostly deal with expansion of the “2nd pillar" of the retirement income system, currently comprised of the Quebec Pension Plan. We therefore consider a key proposal of the D’Amours committee (the longevity pension), in addition to two other proposals: that of Mintz and Wilson, which aims to increase the generosity of the current regime, and that of Wolfson, which introduces a concept of contribution and benefit rates differentiated by income. Using data from Statistics Canada surveys, we analyze the internal rate of return (IRR) of these proposals for various types of individuals taking into consideration inequality in life expectancy, temporal variability of income, and interactions with taxation and the different retirement income support programs. We contrast the results with those obtained when opting instead for additional contributions into existing voluntary savings vehicles combined with a basic annuity purchased at retirement. |
| Keywords: | longevity risk, retirement savings, inequality, life expectancy, |
| JEL: | I14 J18 J26 J32 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2015s-09&r=mfd |
| By: | Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates US-India labor migration and finds that it dominates permanent and temporary employment-based migration to the United States. The true economic value of temporary high-skilled Indian workers in the United States, based on a new visa data based methodology, is estimated to exceed $45 billion in recent years, surpassing the value of US cross-border imports of goods or services from India. The paper analyzes the impact of a potential US immigration reform on US-India bilateral labor migration relations and finds the 2013 Senate Bill S-744 to ease access for Indian individuals to the US labor market, while making it harder for some Indian high-tech firms to operate in the US markets. |
| Keywords: | Temporary Labor Migration, High-Skilled Workers, US-India Relations, Immigration Reform |
| JEL: | F16 F24 J61 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp15-5&r=mfd |
| By: | Victoria Osuna; J. Ignacio García-Pérez |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effectiveness of short-time work (STW) schemes for preserving jobs and reducing the segmentation between stable and unstable jobs observed in dual labour markets. For this purpose, we develop and simulate an equilibrium search and matching model considering the situation of the Spanish 2012 labour market reform as a benchmark. Our steady-state results show that the availability of STW schemes does not necessarily reduce unemployment and job destruction. The effectiveness of this measure depends on the degree of subsidization of payroll taxes it may entail: with a 33% subsidy, we find that STW is quite beneficial for the Spanish economy because it reduces both unemployment and labour market segmentation. We also perform a cost-benefit analysis that shows that there is scope for Pareto improvements when STW is subsidized. Again, the STW scenario with a 33% subsidy on payroll taxes seems the most beneficial because more than 57% of workers improve. These workers also experience a significant increase in annual income that could be used to compensate the losers from this policy change and the State for the fiscal balance deterioration. This reform saves the highest number of jobs and has the lowest deadweight costs. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2015-06&r=mfd |
| By: | Hartmann, Wesley R. (Stanford University); Klapper, Daniel (Humboldt University Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of television advertising in the setting of the NFL's Super Bowl telecast. The Super Bowl is the largest advertising event of the year and is well suited for measurement. The event has the potential to create significant increases in "brand capital" because ratings average over 40 percent of households and ads are a focal point of the broadcast. Furthermore, variation in exposures is exogenous because a brand cannot choose how many impressions it receives in each market. Viewership is determined based on local preferences for watching the two competing teams. With this significant and exogenous variation in Super Bowl advertising exposures we test whether advertisers' sales are affected accordingly. We run our analysis using Nielsen ratings and store level sales data in the beer and soda categories. We find that Super Bowl ads generate significant increases in revenue and volume per household. However, when two major brands both advertise, they erode most of the gain. The largest effects occur during weeks with spikes in other sports events suggesting that placing an advertisement in the most watched sporting event of the year generates associations with sports more broadly. We test this using local viewership data of NCAA basketball in the second month after the Super Bowl and find strong |