| Abstract: |
Using data collected for the evaluation of the rural component of
Oportunidades, Mexico's flagship anti-poverty program, I show that poor
households' entitlement to an exogenous, temporary but guaranteed income
stream increases US migration even if this income is mainly consumed and that
some households likely use the entitlement to this income stream as collateral
to finance the migration. The individuals who start migrating because of this
income shock belong to households with no counterfactual US migrants, come
from the middle of the local predicted wage distribution, and worsen migrant
skills. These results suggest that financial constraints to international
migration are binding for poor Mexicans, some of whom would like to migrate
but cannot afford to. If generalizable, they indicate that, as growth and
anti-poverty and micro-finance programs relax financial constraints for the
poor, Mexican migration to the US will increase and higher levels of border
enforcement will likely be needed. |