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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Aniello Piscopo |
| Abstract: | Informality represents a pervasive feature of many emerging and developing economies, yet standard macroeconomic models often ignore its effects, potentially biasing the analysis of shocks and the design of monetary policy. This paper studies the macroeconomic and policy implications of informality using a structural VAR for Colombia and a two-agent New Keynesian model with formal and informal sectors, featuring heterogeneous households including hand-to-mouth consumers. I show that informal labor supply shocks generate sectoral reallocation: informal activity absorbs part of the shock, sustaining aggregate output while altering wages, hours, and capital allocation. In contrast, monetary policy shocks propagate more strongly when informality is present, amplifying distributional and capital-reallocation effects. Critically, the presence of informality alters equilibrium determinacy: standard Taylor rules may fail to ensure uniqueness, with stability depending on the share of Ricardian households, the size of the informal sector, and the monetary policy stance. My findings highlight that accounting for informal production is essential for understanding transmission mechanisms and designing effective policy in economies with significant informality. |
| Keywords: | Informal economy; Tax evasion; Monetary policy transmission; Fiscal policy; Public debt; DSGE model; Capital reallocation; Colombia |
| JEL: | E52 E62 E26 H26 O17 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:569 |
| By: | Lara Coulier; Selien De Schryder; Milan van den Heuvel; Tobias Verlaeckt (-) |
| Abstract: | We study how mortgage borrowers adjust their mortgage terms and household balance sheets in response to a loan-to-value (LTV) limit. Focusing on the 2020 Belgian LTV policy, we use granular loan- and account-level data from the country’s largest bank. A substantial share of borrowers reduced their LTV ratios, with adjustment patterns varying by income, liquid wealth, and household type. Borrowers mainly responded by increasing downpayments and reducing loan amounts, though these responses were weaker among lower-income households. While the adjustments led to safer mortgages, they were also associated with declines in liquid wealth and consumption in the year following purchase. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Macroprudential Policy, Mortgage Market, Household Finance, Borrower, Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1138 |
| By: | Stefania D'Amico; Max Gillet; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl; Tim Seida |
| Abstract: | We assess whether the Fed’s asset purchases can be tailored to either restore market functioning or provide economic stimulus. When the communicated goal is restoring market functioning and purchases’ implementation is flexible, flow effects are significant: relative price deviations narrow. However, stock effects remain near zero and hence not stimulative. When the communicated goal links purchases to the achievement of the dual mandate, improving their size’s predictability, stock effects rise consistently above zero. When the communicated implementation improves the predictability of the purchases’ maturity composition, stock effects become large. Jointly, the communicated goal and implementation can shape the purchases’ effects. |
| Keywords: | quantitative easing; Market-functioning asset purchases; communicated policy goals; asset purchases implementation |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:102814 |
| By: | Xiwen Bai; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We study how global supply chain disruptions affect monetary policy transmission. Post-pandemic evidence indicates surging transportation costs, goods-market imbalances, and rising prices. We develop a model in which logistical bottlenecks (upstream slack coexisting with downstream shortages) steepen the aggregate supply curve. This convexity amplifies price responses to monetary policy while dampening output effects. Threshold VAR and Local Projection estimates are consistent with this mechanism: during disruptions, contractionary policy reduces prices more at smaller output cost, easing the stabilization trade-off. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, supply chain disruption, state dependence, convex supply curve, inflation |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12451 |
| By: | Henrik Kleven; Camille Landais; Anne Sophie S. Lassen; Philip Rosenbaum; Herdis Steingrimsdottir; Jakob Egholt Søgaard |
| Abstract: | We study whether policy can shift gendered beliefs, norms, and labor market outcomes by exploiting a major expansion of earmarked paternity leave in Denmark. The reform generated large first-stage effects, substantially reallocating leave from mothers to fathers. Using a regression discontinuity design combined with new survey data linked to administrative records, we show that the reform makes parents more supportive of paternity leave, shifts gender-role beliefs in a progressive direction, and reduces perceived differences in childcare ability. The reform also narrows gender gaps in earnings and hours worked. The earnings gap falls by 33pp in the first year following childbirth (during leave) and by 2.8pp in the second year (after leave). These results demonstrate that policy can meaningfully influence beliefs, norms, and gender inequality. On the other hand, earmarking restricts families’ ability to allocate leave freely and lowers leave satisfaction, highlighting a central trade-off inherent in paternalistic policies. |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34862 |
| By: | François Aventur; Saad-Ellah Berhili; Amine Chamkhi (France Travail (French Employment Agency)); Eric Verdier (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The use of the survey among a representative sample of companies in the Moroccan formal sector shows that the use of continuing training for their staff is on average very limited and poorly equipped. Strong inequalities are emerging, to the benefit of large companies and the most qualified jobs. The companies which follow an internal labour market and a dynamic economic strategy are also the most committed in continuing training. These results attest to the structural weaknesses of an institutional system intended to promote more intensive, more qualifying and more egalitarian development of continuing vocational training. |
| Abstract: | L'exploitation de l'enquête auprès d'un échantillon représentatif des entreprises du secteur formel marocain montre que le recours à la formation continue de leur personnel est en moyenne très limité et faiblement outillé. De fortes inégalités se font jour, au bénéfice des grandes entreprises et des personnels les plus qualifiés. Ce sont les entreprises qui s'inscrivent dans une logique de marché interne de l'emploi et dans une stratégie économique dynamique qui sont aussi les plus formatrices. Ces résultats attestent des faiblesses structurelles d'un dispositif institutionnel censé favoriser un développement de la formation continue plus intense, plus qualifiant et plus égalitaire. |
| Keywords: | CVT policy, Morocco, inequalities, access to CVT, CVT in companies, politique de la formation professionnelle, Maroc, inégalités, formation professionnelle en entreprise, accès à la formation professionnelle |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05530088 |
| By: | Orellana, Arturo |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analizan de manera comparada los sistemas de descentralización y gobernanza en Guatemala y la República Dominicana, y se identifican las principales diferencias y similitudes en la distribución de competencias, la incidencia de las políticas públicas y los mecanismos de participación ciudadana. Se busca, asimismo, construir un marco teórico y empírico que permita extraer lecciones aplicables y ofrecer recomendaciones y directrices generales que fortalezcan la capacidad del Estado para atender las necesidades territoriales de manera eficiente y equitativa. El estudio se enmarca en un contexto regional en que el interés por la descentralización y la gobernanza multinivel es cada vez mayor en América Latina y el Caribe. Organismos internacionales como el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) y la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) han señalado que la descentralización es un mecanismo para incrementar la eficacia en la administración pública, mejorar la calidad de los servicios y promover el desarrollo equitativo. Se fundamentará en este análisis que estos avances solo se materializan cuando se consolida un nivel intermedio que articule las políticas locales con las directrices nacionales. |
| Date: | 2026–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:85926 |
| By: | Beraja, Martin; Peng, Wenwei; Yang, David Y.; Yuchtman, Noam |
| Abstract: | Venture capital plays an important role in funding and shaping innovation outcomes, characterized by investors’ deep knowledge of the technology, industry, and institutions, as well as their long-running relationships with the entrepreneurship and innovation community. China, in its pursuit of global leadership in AI innovation and technology, has set up government venture capital funds so that both national and local governments act as venture capitalists. These government-led venture capital funds combine features of private venture capital with traditional government innovation policies. In this paper, we collect comprehensive data on China’s government and private venture capital funds. We draw three important contrasts between government and private VC funds: (i) government funds are spatially more dispersed than private funds; (ii) government funds invest in firms with weaker ex-ante performance signals but these firms exhibit growth rates exceeding those of firms in which private funds invest; and (iii) private VC funds follow government VC investments, especially when hometown government funds directly invest on firms with weaker ex-ante performance signals. We interpret these patterns in light of VC funds’ traditional role overcoming information frictions and China’s unique institutional environment, which includes important frictions on mobility and information. |
| Keywords: | venture capital; artificial intelligence; innovation policy |
| JEL: | G24 G28 O38 |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124143 |
| By: | Perez Camacho M Nati (European Commission - JRC); Wolf Oliver (European Commission - JRC); Rames Mette; Donatello Shane; Guimarães Renata; Jordão Mariana |
| Abstract: | This Preliminary Report is intended to provide the background information for the revision of the existing EU Ecolabel criteria for indoor and outdoor paints and varnishes (Commission Decision 2014/312/EU). The present study has been carried out by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) with the technical support of Viegand Maagøe A/S. The work was developed for the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Environment. The EU Ecolabel criteria for indoor and outdoor paints and varnishes set out in Decision 2014/312/EU were established in 2014. Commission Decision (EU) 2022/1229 prolonged their validity until 31 December 2025. To support the revision process with technical evidence, this Preliminary Report consists of: — an analysis of the scope, definitions and description of the legal framework, as well as a first proposal for the revised scope (Task 1); — a market analysis (Task 2); — a technical analysis, including an environmental assessment (Task 3). This background information, combined with input received from the stakeholders involved, was used in the revision process to justify the choices behind the revision of the criteria (research and work carried out from June 2023 to June 2025). |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc145238 |
| By: | Andres Espitia; Edwin Mu\~noz-Rodr\'iguez |
| Abstract: | Appropriate decisions depend on information gathered beforehand, yet such information is often obtained through intermediaries with biased preferences. Motivated by settings such as testing and recertification in organ transplantation, we study the problem faced by a decision-maker who can only access costly information through an agent with misaligned preferences. In a dynamic framework with exogenous decision timing, we ask how requests for verifiable information (evidence) should be scheduled and their implications for the quality of attained choices. When the agent's incentives are ignored, evidence requests do not condition on previously reported information. However, such policies may be susceptible to strategic manipulation by the agent. We show that, in these cases, optimal requests should be biased: additional evidence is more likely to be sought when previous reports favor the agent's preferred outcome. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.13879 |
| By: | Bea Cantillon; |
| Abstract: | This paper traces how a European socio-ecological policy framework has emerged to enable the making of an Eco-Social Union (ESU)—conceived as a supportive supranational environment providing steering, guidance, and support to the Union’s national welfare states, while safeguarding national diversity. By adopting a synoptic approach—examining objectives, policy instruments, and funding as an integrated whole—we show that the process is more advanced than is generally assumed. Tracing its emergence from the Union’s founding to recent crises, we highlight (i) the articulation of increasingly freestanding social objectives—centred on social inclusion and now increasingly intertwined with ecological goals; (ii) the layering of first- and second-order, input- and outcome-oriented governance; (iii) the rising role of EU funding in coupling resources to social and ecological aims and fostering solidarity among the Member States; and (iv) the growing interconnections among these elements. Without foreclosing ideational interpretations, we contend that the process is taking shape out of functional necessity—enabling national welfare states, as active actors in the process, to protect themselves against the negative spillovers of integration and to support reform needs, not least in response to the climate crisis; enabling the Union to safeguard its cohesion; serving as a productive factor for the functioning of the single market; and making the green transition possible. The paper argues that goal-oriented funding that takes into account differential national needs may set in motion a virtuous cycle that renders the ESU increasingly irreversible: interstate solidarity creates the necessity for common binding social and environmental standards while the pursuit of common objectives raises the need for interstate solidarity as evidenced by the Social Climate Fund. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:2507 |
| By: | Kollar, Justin |
| Abstract: | The so-called AI boom is part of an infrastructure-led industrial strategy, converting speculative computing demand into bankable fossil generation, transmission expansion, and water- and land-intensive industrial sites. This article bridges digital infrastructure studies and the new state capitalism literature by theorizing compute as a socially produced resource whose availability depends on territorial governance. I argue that the buildout is being assembled through a fossil–AI nexus, a fossil–finance–platform coalition that produces powered land: an emergent asset form whose value derives from positionality in a constrained energy system that secures deliverable 'firm' power through revenue guarantees, deliverability rights, and cost-allocation arrangements. Drawing on a review of major gas-to-data centre co-location projects and a comparative analysis of PJM and ERCOT, I identify three recurring de-risking channels that convert uncertain load forecasts into durable, carbon-intensive infrastructure: revenue certainty, delivery certainty, and cost shifting. I show how 'reliability, ' alongside security and competitiveness framings, compresses timelines, translates engineering criteria into bankability, and narrows public contestation. I also show how opacity, or 'blackboxing, ' stabilizes powered land by restricting access to contractual and cost-allocation terms, while relocating politics to transparency disputes and siting conflicts over where data centres go and who pays for the buildout. |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k9df4_v1 |