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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Sangyup Choi; Kimoon Jeong; Jiseob Kim |
| Abstract: | We study how the call option-like refinancing structure can affect the transmission channel of monetary policy on consumption. Utilizing European data, we find that contractionary shocks induce a larger decline in consumption in countries with a higher share of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), confirming the well-known finding. In contrast, consumption responses to expansionary shocks do not depend on this share, resulting in the asymmetric mortgage channel that has not been documented. Household-level microdata and quantitative analysis indicate that refinancing in response to a decline in the interest rate—akin to exercising call options—is the key to rationalizing our findings. |
| Keywords: | adjustable-rate mortgages, refinancing, monetary policy, consumption, call option |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E44 E52 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-02 |
| By: | Yakhin, Yossi |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) into a standard New-Keynesian small open economy model. It solves for the optimal FXI policy, suggests an implementable policy rule, and studies the transmission mechanism of FXIs. Relying on the portfolio balance channel, deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) reflect financial inefficiencies. Therefore, a policy rule that stabilizes the UIP premium moves the economy toward its optimal allocation, regardless of the type of shocks it faces. Augmenting the rule with foreign reserves smoothing further improves welfare. The paper discusses the conditions under which strict targeting of the UIP premium is optimal. FXIs are transmitted by affecting the UIP premium. Purchasing foreign reserves increases the UIP premium, thereby raising the effective return home agents face and depreciating the domestic currency. Consequently, domestic demand contracts and export expands. The results are robust to a variety of modeling alternatives for the financial sector. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Exchange Interventions; Policy Rule; UIP Premium; Monetary Policy; Open Economy Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F30 F31 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122948 |
| By: | Saki Bigio; Nicolas Caramp; Dejanir Silva; Dejanir H. Silva |
| Abstract: | We append the expectation of a monetary-fiscal reform into a standard New Keynesian model. If a reform occurs, monetary policy will temporarily aid debt sustainability through a temporary burst in inflation. The anticipation of a possible reform links debt levels with inflation expectations. As a result, interest rates have two effects: they influence demand and affect expected inflation in opposite directions. The expectations effect is linked to the impact of interest rates on public debt. While lowering inflation in the short term is possible through demand control, inflation tends to rise again due to its impact on inflation expectations (sticky inflation). Optimal monetary policy may allow low real interest rates after fiscal shocks, temporarily breaking away from the Taylor principle. We assess whether the Federal Reserve’s “staying behind the curve” was the right strategy during the recent post-pandemic inflation surge. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, monetary-fiscal coordination, inflation expectations |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E63 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11495 |
| By: | Moritz Drechsel-Grau; Fabian Greimel |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether the interplay of social comparisons in housing and rising income inequality contributed to the household debt boom in the US between 1980 and 2007. We develop a tractable macroeconomic model with general social comparisons in housing to show that changes in the distribution of income affect aggregate housing demand, aggregate debt and house prices if (and only if) social comparisons are asymmetric. In the empirically relevant case of upward-looking comparisons, rising inequality can rationalize a substantial share of the observed housing and debt boom. |
| Keywords: | mortgages, housing boom, social comparisons, consumption networks, external habits, keeping up with the Joneses |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E21 E44 E70 R21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11565 |
| By: | Saki Bigio; Nicolas Caramp; Dejanir Silva |
| Abstract: | We append the expectation of a monetary-fiscal reform into a standard New Keynesian model. If a reform occurs, monetary policy will temporarily aid debt sustainability through a temporary burst in inflation. The anticipation of a possible reform links debt levels with inflation expectations. As a result, interest rates have two effects: they influence demand and affect expected inflation in opposite directions. The expectations effect is linked to the impact of interest rates on public debt. While lowering inflation in the short term is possible through demand control, inflation tends to rise again due to their impact on inflation expectations (sticky inflation). Optimal monetary policy may allow negative real interest rates after fiscal shocks, temporarily breaking away from the Taylor principle. We assess whether the Federal Reserve's "staying behind the curve" was the right strategy during the recent post-Pandemic inflation surge. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:206 |
| By: | Stefania Albanesi |
| Abstract: | Women’s labor force participation rose rapidly in the post-war period in the United States until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend in female labor supply on aggregate business cycles both empirically and with a quantitative real business cycle model that incorporates gender differences. I show that the rise in women’s participation played a substantial role in the Great Moderation, and not allowing for gender differences leads to incorrect inference on the sources of this phenomenon. I also show that the discontinued growth in female labor supply starting in the 1990s played a substantial role in the jobless recoveries following the 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions. Moreover, it reduced aggregate hours and output growth during the late 1990s and mid 2000s expansions. I also find that the growth in women’s employment added substantially to TFP growth. These results suggest that continued sustained growth in women’s employment after the early 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States. |
| Keywords: | Women's employment; Business cycles; Great moderation; Jobless recoveries |
| JEL: | E17 E32 E37 J11 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99403 |
| By: | Joseph E. Stiglitz |
| Abstract: | Capitalism since its inception has been marked by large fluctuations. The resulting episodic unemployment has been very costly. This paper provides an overview of alternative theories. Standard models (such as DSGE) have not provided insights into the causes of the fluctuations and the shocks buffeting the economy, which contrary to what they assume, are largely endogenous; they have not provided an understanding of how and why the economy amplifies shocks and makes their effects at times so persistent or how and why there may be oscillatory behavior, rather than a smooth convergence back to some (temporary) equilibrium. Accordingly, they do not give guidance on how to make deep downturns—those that really matter—less frequent, shallower, and less costly. By contrast, there are alternative, new models, often building on older Keynesian foundations, with heterogenous capital goods and heterogeneous agents, interacting with each other in imperfect markets and fragile networks, with endogenous innovation in an ever-evolving economy, with deep uncertainty. These theories, with endogenously driven fluctuations, provide greater insights in the causes and nature of fluctuations, and better policy guidance. |
| JEL: | C62 D84 E12 E32 E44 N30 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33218 |
| By: | Jones, Francis; Leon, Daniel; Skerrette, Nyasha; Mkrtchyan, Iskuhi |
| Abstract: | This study presents a statistical analysis of the situation of AMCs, based on the data that is available, shedding light on their distinct circumstances. It reveals that while AMCs boast higher GDP per capita than many Caribbean member States, their economies have had low growth and are highly dependent on trade, with some territories recording concerning levels of public debt. Socially, the AMCs face an ageing population, varied poverty levels, and have disparate social protection systems. Environmentally, they face challenges due to disasters arising from natural hazards, although there has been some progress in reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through improved energy efficiency. |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col033:81172 |
| By: | Arnone, Massimo; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | The article reviews the linkage of banking credit with technological innovation at global level underlining that access to finance is important for and innovation. The domestic credit percentage involving the private sector to GDP allows projects of high risk but with a very high reward, projects that are key in increasing productivity and global competitiveness significantly. This paper explores that dynamic in infrastructure, creative industries, and greening technologies. Indeed, findings from such studies do show positive correlations, such as between credit and infrastructure development or creative exports, suggesting the capability of systems of finance to transform. These findings indicate the positive relationships that exist in some contexts, such as reduced R&D investment. Taking into account the ecological bottom line, this research underlines ecosystem-based strategies of banking, green credit, and poised financial regulations for sustainable development. Synthesizing into this paper provides actionable insight into how policy makers, financial institutions, and researchers can tap into the synergy between the financial system and innovation. |
| Keywords: | Panel Data, Banking, Innovation. |
| JEL: | G00 G20 G21 G22 G23 G24 G28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122774 |
| By: | Hillebrand, Annette; Stuck, Jana |
| Abstract: | Während Cloud-Lösungen in der Privatwirtschaft bereits seit Jahren häufig eingesetzt werden, sind öffentliche Verwaltungen zurückhaltender und nur rund die Hälfte gibt in Befragungen an, Cloud-Lösungen zu nutzen. In den letzten Jahren wachsen die Anforderungen an die öffentliche IT insbesondere im Hinblick auf Verfügbarkeit, Resilienz und IT-Sicherheit und gleichzeitig begrenzen der Fachkräftemangel und die angespannte Haushaltslage die Ressourcen. Das führt zu einer steigenden Nachfrage nach CloudLösungen im öffentlichen Sektor, da Cloud Computing einen bedarfsgerechten, flexiblen Einsatz und eine schnelle Skalierung von Softwarelösungen ermöglicht. Es vereinfacht den Austausch und die Nachnutzung von Software zwischen föderalen Ebenen und zwischen Kommunen. Die Bundesregierung hat den verstärkten Einsatz strategisch verankert und treibt mit der Deutschen Verwaltungscloud große Cloud-Projekte voran. Der Bund und die Länder haben zudem festgelegt, dass neue Software als Cloud-Lösungen entwickelt werden soll. Die öffentlichen IT-Dienstleister und Fachverfahrenshersteller stehen noch am Anfang des Aufbaus ihres Cloud-Angebots: Rund 55 % der öffentlichen IT-Dienstleister haben noch keine Cloud-Lösung im Portfolio und auch Fachverfahren sind kaum cloudbasiert. Die internationalen Hyperscaler, nationalen Großunternehmen und jungen Start-ups haben bereits ein breites Cloud-Angebot für den öffentlichen Sektor und bieten teilweise keine On-Premise-Lösungen mehr an. Besonders relevant für den öffentlichen Sektor ist die Entscheidung von Microsoft, ab 2029 MS Office ausschließlich als Cloud-Lösung anzubieten. Die Bundesverwaltung arbeitet einerseits gemeinsam mit einem Tochterunternehmen von SAP an einer Cloud für die öffentliche Verwaltung auf Basis von Microsoft, die den souveränen Betrieb von Office in der Cloud gewährleisten soll. Auf der anderen Seite arbeiten Initiativen des Bundes an Open-Source-Alternativen, die in den eigenen Rechenzentren gehostet werden können. Es ist zu erwarten, dass sich das Cloud-Angebot für den öffentlichen Sektor 2025 durch die Delos Cloud, Open-Source-Alternativen und die Deutsche Verwaltungscloud erweitern wird und die Cloud-Nutzung im öffentlichen Sektor steigt. |
| Abstract: | While cloud solutions have been established in the private sector for years and are frequently used, public administrations are more hesitant and only about half of them state in surveys that they use cloud solutions. In recent years, the demands on public IT have grown, particularly with regard to availability, resilience and IT security. At the same time, the shortage of skilled workers and the strained budgetary situation are limiting resources. This is leading to an increasing demand for cloud solutions in the public sector, since cloud computing enables flexible use and rapid scaling of software solutions as needed. It simplifies the exchange and reuse of software between federal levels and between municipalities. The federal government has strategically anchored the increased use of cloud computing and is pushing ahead with major cloud projects in the form of the German Administration Cloud. The federal and state governments have also stipulated that new software should be developed as cloud solutions. Public IT service providers and specialist process manufacturers are still in the early stages of developing their cloud offerings: around 55% of public IT service providers do not yet have a cloud solution in their portfolio, and specialist processes are also rarely cloud-based. The international hyperscalers, large national companies and young startups already have a wide range of cloud services for the public sector and in some cases no longer offer on-premise solutions. Particularly relevant for the public sector is Microsoft's decision to offer MS Office exclusively as a cloud solution from 2029. On the one hand, the federal administration is working with an SAP subsidiary on a public administration cloud based on Microsoft that is designed to ensure the sovereign operation of Office in the cloud. On the other hand, federal initiatives are working on open-source alternatives that can be hosted in their own data centres. It is expected that the cloud offering for the public sector will expand in 2025 to include the Delos Cloud, open-source alternatives and the German administration cloud, and that cloud use in the public sector will increase. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wikdps:308076 |
| By: | Philip Bunn; Lena Anayi; Nicholas Bloom; Paul Mizen; Gregory Thwaites; Ivan Yotzov |
| Abstract: | Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is challenging. Using micro data from large panel surveys of UK and US firms we show that the response of prices to demand shocks is also convex at the firm level. We obtain similar results using three different empirical exercises examining: the impact of COVID demand shocks, the response to sales shocks, and hypothetical shocks from a survey question. This convexity is strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing returns at the firm level, which replicates firm and aggregate Phillips curve convexity. The non-linearity emerges from trend inflation pushing firms closer to their price increase thresholds. |
| JEL: | C83 D22 D84 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33234 |
| By: | Ohnishi, Kazuhiro |
| Abstract: | Over the past approximately 30 years, many researchers have examined oligopoly models where firms endogenously select the timing of their action decisions. Therefore, this paper studies a mixed triopoly model featuring competition between a labour-managed firm, a capitalist firm and a state-owned firm. The sequence of events is as follows. In stage 0, each firm independently and simultaneously selects either ‘stage 1’ or ‘stage 2’. In this context, stage 1 denotes that a firm produces in stage 1, whereas stage 2 signifies that it produces in stage 2. In stage 1, if a firm opts for stage 1, it determines its output for this stage. In stage 2, if a firm chooses stage 2, it decides on its output for this stage. Upon the conclusion of the game, the market opens, and all firms sell their outputs. The purpose of this paper is to present the equilibrium outcome of triopoly competition where a state-owned firm, a labour-managed firm and a capitalist firm compete in quantities. As a result of the analysis, this paper reveals that there exists an equilibrium wherein both the labour-managed firm and the capitalist firm assume leadership roles. The paper finds that the state-owned firm is precluded from functioning as the Stackelberg leader. |
| Keywords: | Capitalist firm; Cournot game; Endogenous timing; Labour-managed firm; State-owned firm |
| JEL: | C72 D21 L30 |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123007 |
| By: | Cândida Ferreira |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically tests the two competing hypotheses regarding the relationship between competition and stability: the competition-fragility hypothesis and the competition-stability hypothesis. The banking sector stability is first proxied by the estimated Z-score that provides a measure of overall bank stability. Further, the paper separately considers some specific constituent components of the Z-score measure to analyse different aspects of the bank stability: bank profitability and bank capitalisation. Two different measures are used to represent bank competition: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (a specific measure of market concentration), and the Boone indicator (which measures competition from an efficiency perspective). Using data sourced from the Moody’s Analytics BankFocus database, the paper applies panel estimations to a relatively large panel including 784 relevant banks of all the 27 European Union countries, between 2006 and 2021. The main findings overall confirm the validity of the competitionfragility hypothesis. Moreover, the results obtained for two specific EU countries: Germany and France, highlight some specific differences in particular regarding the effects of bank market concentration, and the responses to the crises that affected the EU banking institutions over the considered period. The findings of this paper reinforce the relevance of the policy makers’ role and give room to some recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Bank stability: bank competition; Z-score; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index; Boone indicator; EU banking sector. |
| JEL: | C33 D53 F36 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02612023 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Benin’s strong reform drive and sound macroeconomic management over the past several years have provided policy space to bolster resilience to repeated shocks. The authorities started rebuilding policy buffers last year and recently regained access to the international capital market after a two-year hiatus. Budget support has consistently exceeded expectations. While the country’s reform program—supported by the ECF (2017–20) and the ongoing EFF/ECF (2022–25)—has generated tangible macroeconomic dividends and improved aggregate social outcomes, large disparities have persisted across regions and income groups. A key challenge ahead is how to leverage the initial government’s impetus to pursue the transition to private sector-led growth that benefits all Beninese. |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/338 |
| By: | Fujita, Takaaki |
| Abstract: | This study explores advanced frameworks for modeling uncertainty and complexity, including fuzzy sets, neutrosophic sets, and plithogenic sets. Plithogenic sets, which generalize fuzzy and neutrosophic sets by incorporating multi-attribute and contradictory properties, provide a flexible tool for representing complex systems. To formalize these ideas, we utilize hyperstructures and superhyperstructures, enabling hierarchical and multi-layered relationships. Applications in decision-making and control systems are examined, with a focus on superhyperdecision-making and extending neuro-fuzzy systems to plithogenic systems within superhyperstructure frameworks. Finally, we propose future research directions, such as applying plithogenic sets to lattice theory and blockchain technology, along with integrating superhyperstructures to enhance these fields. |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xqrd6 |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Tom Bauermann (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Alexander Herzog-Stein (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Christoph Paetz (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Katja Rietzler (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Ulrike Stein (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Sabine Stephan (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Silke Tober (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Sebastian Watzka (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Deutschlands Wirtschaft stagniert seit zwei Jahren und das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist kaum höher als vor fünf Jahren. Die Rahmenbedingungen für Deutschlands exportorientiertes Wirtschaftsmodell haben sich drastisch geändert. Ohne zügige wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen droht der industrielle Kern der deutschen Wirtschaft wegzubrechen. Die aktuelle Diskussion erinnert an die Reformdebatte der frühen 2000er Jahre. Damals wie heute waren die Unternehmen deutlich besser aufgestellt als vielfach wahrgenommen. Allerdings muss das Modell Deutschland an die neuen Gegebenheiten, insbesondere infolge der geostrategischen Ausrichtung von China und den USA, angepasst werden. Dabei ist eine hinreichende Binnennachfrage erforderlich, damit Exportorientiertheit mit steigenden Einkommen und einer tendenziell ausgeglichenen Leistungsbilanz vereinbar ist. Am dringlichsten ist die Überwindung der aktuellen Nachfrageschwäche durch eine Fiskalpolitik, die notwendige Infrastrukturinvestitionen auf den Weg bringt und ein günstiges Umfeld für private Investitionen und Innovationen schafft, sowie eine Beendigung der geldpolitischen Restriktion. Eine gezielte und auf EU-Ebene abgestimmte Industriepolitik sowie Maßnahmen zur Verringerung des Strompreises sind ebenso erforderlich wie eine neue Balance zwischen Regulierung und Innovationsfähigkeit. |
| Keywords: | Schuldenbremse, Wirtschaftsmodell Deutschland, Deindustrialisierung, EZB, Energiepreise |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:report:194-2025 |
| By: | Lars Hornuf; Johannes Voshaar |
| Abstract: | What is an effective signal in crowd funding? We asked this question to 83 expert researchers who have published the top-notch articles in this field. They stated that, in theory, strong signals include past crowdfunding success, business experience, patent ownership, and the equity share offered. Examining 145 articles published in leading business and economics journals, we find that the empirical evidence from a meta-analysis does not accord with this perception among expert researchers. Signals that expert researchers consider to be theoretically less strong are more often statistically significant predictors of crowdfunding success and have neither larger nor smaller standardized effect sizes than strong signals. A meta-regression suggests that domain-specific signals play the most important role in crowdfunding. The findings of our literature review provide important insights for investors, platform managers, and the academic review process. |
| Keywords: | signaling, crowdfunding, crowdinvesting, peer-to-peer lending, crowdlending, meta-study |
| JEL: | G21 D82 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11501 |
| By: | Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (School of Business and Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg); Sven Fischer (School of Business and Economics, Philipps-Universität Marburg) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of the “Woman, Life, Freedom†protests in Iran during the last quarter of 2022 on individual life satisfaction. To assess this impact, we use two original representative surveys conducted before and after the protests in 2022. The repeated cross-sectional dataset was generated using the same sampling approach in both surveys to ensure representativeness. Our results, based on probit regressions and an instrumental variable approach for a sample of 2, 256 individuals, show that the violent protest environment had a significant negative effect on life satisfaction in Iran. To measure respondents' exposure to the protests, this study uses various indicators based on the distance of individual respondents from the protest locations. Overall, the protest environment decreased the probability of life satisfaction by 3.6 percentage points. These results remain robust when controlling for other determinants of individual life satisfaction. Moreover, we find significant heterogeneity among respondents based on gender, with the largest negative impact of the protests on life satisfaction observed among women. This negative effect is more pronounced than the impact of unemployment. Another key finding is the heterogeneous effect depending on media consumption, with international TV viewers reporting the largest decrease in life satisfaction. The mechanism underlying these effects was further explored through mediation analysis, which reveals that feelings of insecurity and increased surveillance are key mediators of the total effect. |
| Keywords: | Protest; Violence, Life Satisfaction, Well-Being, Woman Life Freedom, Survey, Iran. |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 I31 N15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202501 |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe (INSEAD); Bergeaud, Antonin (HEC Paris); De Ridder, Maarten (University of Cambridge); Van Reenen, John (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Green innovation offers a solution to climate change without compromising living standards. Yet the share of climate-enhancing innovations in total patents, after booming for two decades, has seized to grow since the Global Financial Crisis. We develop a quantitative framework in which firms direct innovation towards green or polluting technologies, and become better at innovating in technologies that they have previously succeeded in. This causes mature, incumbent firms to predominantly innovate in polluting technologies. When green technologies become more attractive, e.g. due to a carbon tax, young firms are responsible for a large share of the transition to green innovation. As young firms are financially constrained, a credit shock harms their innovation, bringing the green transition to a halt. We validate the theory with two empirical exercises. First, we use micro data to provide causal evidence that tight credit disproportionately affects green innovation, through its effect on young firms. Second, we show that contractionary monetary policy shocks have a significantly larger effect on green patenting than non-green patenting, in line with the model. Quantifying the model, we find that tight credit can explain around 60% of the recent slowdown in the rise of green patenting. This translates to a cumulative increase in emissions by half a year of the initial (high pollution) steady state. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Productivity; Endogenous Growth; Innovation; Creative Destruction |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1512 |
| By: | Strzelecka, Celina |
| Abstract: | How will time be conceptualized in the future? Ministry of Time is a futuristic concept derived from anticipatory anthropology, which emerged in the ethnographic research in Poland conducted in the project "Choreography of time: Cultural practices of time management". The project involved 60 interviews about time management. We live in a society with many rhythms. In everyday life, we often have to navigate between conflicting and uncoordinated time frames. Furthermore, leisure time is inequitably distributed in many societies. As a result of this situation, all the consequences are transferred to the individual. The way we deal with the constant lack of time and acceleration is up to each of us. To deal with desynchronized time rhythms, many of my interviewees dream of automating their time management decisions. The idea is that AI can guide them to better decisions by learning their human behavior. A „digital assistant” could help them organize their lives. „Intelligent software” could decide what is urgent and important. The Ministry of Time is a future idea that emerged from interviews. As a result of the time policy, the Ministry would coordinate and synchronize social time on a systemic level: specify the hours when offices are available, as well as the working, consumption, and rest hours. Organize them so that they don't interfere with each other as they currently do. It would gather data about individuals' time and manage system time for the Ministry using automated decision-making. Ministry of Time has been found to be useful by my interlocutors. Traffic jams are created by common working hours, which causes overlapping time rhythms. Services, such as medical clinics, stores, offices, and museums, are open during working hours. How does all of this make sense? A desire to change these rhythms led to the idea of the Ministry of Time. However, my interlocutors also see the dangers of this approach. The Ministry of Time will construct temporal behavioral patterns and steer society's time. Some people may feel uncomfortable when they realize that they are entrusting so much power to algorithms. Their concern is that they may violate their privacy. A lack of trust in these systems' objectivity and their usage of data is not unjustified. The algorithms used by social networks provide a good example of the dangers associated with data collection mechanisms built into applications. The usage of this data to shape opinions and personalize advertising is already widely known. It is to be expected that the data collected by our virtual assistant on our time organization patterns will also be subject to trade in the era of cognitive capitalism. In my presentation, I will discuss the opportunities and risks of applying automated decision making to social time coordination. In addition, I will explore whether people are willing to surrender control to an outside entity in favor of intelligent time management and social time algorithms. |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:nybfs |
| By: | Dermarkar, Simon (HEC Montreal); Baudot, Lisa (HEC Paris); Hazgui, Mouna (HEC Montreal) |
| Abstract: | Current entrants to the accounting profession confront the increasing influences of digitalization on the profession, yet how these entrants perceive such trends is little understood. Based on 42 interviews with final-year accounting students at a North American university, this study delves into the perceptions and attitudes of future accountants toward the technological developments unfolding in the profession they aspire to join. Our findings hold significance for accounting practitioners and educators, shedding light on students’ awareness of the technological shifts in the profession and their enthusiasm for these changes. Despite expressing concerns about their accounting education and professional training, the prospective accountants in our study exhibit self-efficacy beliefs in their technological skills. They see technology playing a pivotal role in making accounting a more appealing specialization, emphasizing value-added tasks. By examining prospective accountants’ underlying views on the profession amidst digital transformation, our study offers valuable insights that could be leveraged to enhance interest and retention in the accounting field. |
| Keywords: | Accounting profession; accounting education; technologies; generation Z; self-efficacy; technologies; self-efficacy; Accounting Education; Generation Z |
| JEL: | M41 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1508 |
| By: | Mirdasse Samir (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | In an era of increasing digital transformation, human resource management (HRM) and performance management (PM) have become areas of major interest for organizations seeking to maximize their operational efficiency and competitiveness. This article proposes an innovative conceptual framework for understanding the complex interactions between digitalization, HR governance, and performance management. We address the challenge of adapting HR and performance management practices to the demands of digitalization, highlighting the need for strategic HR governance and data-driven performance management to fully leverage the benefits of digital transformation. In this study, our objectives are to define the key dimensions of digitalization, HR governance, and performance management, identify their interrelations, and develop a robust conceptual model to analyze these complex dynamics. To achieve this, we conducted an exhaustive literature review and conducted a thorough analysis of key concepts in this field. In terms of methodology, our research adopts a conceptual approach, drawing on existing theoretical frameworks and proposing an innovative synthesis of the concepts under study. The findings of our study shed light on the significant impact of digitalization on HR governance and performance management practices, as well as the challenges and opportunities associated with this transformation. In conclusion, our research provides new and insightful perspectives on the interactions between digitalization, HR governance, and performance management, emphasizing the importance of a strategic and integrated approach to addressing the challenges posed by the evolving digital landscape. We formulate recommendations for future research and managerial practice, highlighting the need to develop flexible and adaptive HR strategies and performance management systems to successfully navigate this rapidly changing environment. |
| Keywords: | Digitalization, Performance Management, HR Governance, Conceptual Framework, Conceptual Model |
| Date: | 2024–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04853855 |
| By: | Meunier, Sophie; Danzman, Sarah Bauerle |
| Abstract: | The European Union is considering implementing regulations and possible prohibitions on outbound FDI in some high-technology sectors. These deliberations are part of a substantial re-evaluation of the security implications of economic interdependence. This Perspective contextualizes the EU's recent interest in outbound controls and explores potential challenges of such actions. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:colfdi:308151 |
| By: | Memoğlu, Ömer (High Technology Research Center (YUTAM)) |
| Abstract: | Türkiye adopts a 'win-win' strategy in the context of maritime disputes. The Republic of Türkiye, which aims to show how much maritime jurisdiction coastal states will gain in their agreements with Türkiye, also implements a strategy to show how much they will lose if they do not reach an agreement with Türkiye. Türkiye, which embraces international principles such as fair distribution, fairness, geographical superiority, proportionality, and non-closure, being the country with the longest coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, naturally has maritime boundaries with Israel as well. In this context, Israel is Türkiye's maritime neighbor. The Turkish Sword drawn in the west with Libya and in the east with Israel can be effectively applied. The thesis of Doç. Dr. Cihat Yaycı, 'Libya-Türkiye EEZ Agreement, Libya is Türkiye's Maritime Neighbor, ' was realized with the will of President Erdoğan and formed a strategy that disrupted a global game planned to seize the maritime jurisdiction areas of countries bordering the Eastern Mediterranean, including Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration. The Eastern Mediterranean, which excites global multi-actor actors and those who monopolize energy hegemony, will make Türkiye a global actor with its Blue Homeland strategy, given that it has the longest coastline. Those actors who do not want Türkiye to become a great power and use various methods to deter Türkiye from the Blue Homeland Doctrine try to implement their plans to chain Türkiye by presenting the Seville map, which was drawn to confine Türkiye to its land borders, as the maritime reflection of the Seville agreement of yesteryears. Because when Türkiye claims its maritime rights, it can solve its energy problem and fulfill one of the 'one necessary and two sufficient conditions' to become a great power. Elements that fund Türkiye’s lobbies to label the Blue Homeland as expansionist, maximalist, or Neo-Ottomanist aim to prevent Türkiye from becoming a great power. Based on Barbaros Hayrettin Pasha’s principle 'He who controls the water controls the land, ' the main strategy is to conduct a study showing how much maritime jurisdiction Israel can gain with agreements with Türkiye. Reminding us of the maritime spirit of our millennial civilization and the losses suffered when separated from its seas, and addressing the global competition in the Eastern Mediterranean and its reflections on the Republic of Türkiye in terms of maritime security are the main outlines of the study. |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rgf75 |
| By: | Alemanno, Alberto (HEC Paris) |
| Abstract: | The European project emerged as a long-term response to the immediate and tangible challenges facing all European countries in the aftermath of the Second World War. As such, what is now the European Union was envisioned from its inception as a project meant to transcend current generations to protect future ones. Yet today future generations have no rights or representation in the EU’s decisionmaking today. The EU institutions—as those in other jurisdictions—are not legally mandated to think for the long term and lack the tools to systematically design future-proof policies. This is set to get worse as Europe is an ageing continent, where the share of people over 55 in the total population will rise from just under 30 percent [today] to just over 40 percent by 2050. In other words, older generations are thus set to grab even more political power. To rebalance political power in the EU both at intergenerational and Intragenerational level, this essay puts forward a set of reform ideas capable of embedding future generations' interests into EU policy-making. |
| Keywords: | Future Generations; Future Generations Institutions; Long Term; Cost Benefit Analysis; Impact Assessment; Public Policy; Future-Making; Policymaking; Future Generations; EU Commissioner; Futurability |
| JEL: | K30 K32 K33 |
| Date: | 2024–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1509 |
| By: | Ottmar Edenhofer; Max Franks; Friedemann Gruner; Matthias Kalkuhl; Kai Lessmann |
| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is becoming an emerging topic in climate policy. We review the nascent economic literature on the governance of CDR and discuss policy design and institutions. We first assess the role of CDR in climate policy portfolios that include abatement and adaptation. Cost saving technological progress could make CDR a game changer in climate policy: CDR creates new sectoral, intertemporal and international flexibilities, which reduce overall costs and allow returning to a temperature target after temporary overshooting. Moreover, carbon removal can reduce the problem of international cooperation due to substantially lower supply-side leakage via fossil fuel markets. A key challenge lies in its governance and incentive structure that is complicated by non-permanence of carbon storage and default risks of the firms committed to future CDR. For CDR governance, we survey approaches that incentivize removals by price instruments or include CDR in (modified) emissions trading schemes. |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11516 |
| By: | Sokhombela, Andiswa Luncedo Lwandile; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the safe-haven characteristics of three assets, namely gold, crude oil and Bitcoin, and their ability to reduce downside risk of different portfolios during two severe financial crises: the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the 2019 Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-2019). We examine the left-tail behaviour of portfolios consisting of 60/40 equity returns and bond yield from six G20 member nations by applying EVT, BMM in the context of portfolio optimisation and examine which selection of safe-haven assets between gold, crude oil and Bitcoin can be amalgamated to the stock/bond mix for an optimal portfolio during crises. The portfolios are from three developed countries: Canada, United States of America (USA) and United Kingdom (UK), while the three emerging countries are Russia, Brazil and South Korea. The sample data is from 2007 to 2009 for the GFC and 2019 to 2023 for COVID-19. The findings of the paper show that during the GFC, the addition of gold and crude oil and the combination of the two allowed the heavy Fréchet-type tails to transform into thin Weibull-type tails. This implies that the two assets acted as safe-haven assets during the crisis and gold being the best safe-haven option for all countries. Contrarily, COVID-19 yielded mixed results, all the assets including the digital cryptocurrency acted as a safe haven for only two emerging countries, namely Russia and Brazil, improving both tail behaviours to Weibull-type tails, with gold and Bitcoin serving safe-haven characteristics for both countries. |
| Keywords: | Safe-haven assets; Global Financial Crisis (GFC); COVID-19; Extreme Value Theory (EVT); block maxima method (BMM) |
| JEL: | C5 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123066 |
| By: | Rasmussen, Aksel Kaastrup; Seizilles, Fanny; Girolami, Mark; Kazlauskaite, Ieva |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the Bayesian approach to inverse Robin problems. These are problems for certain elliptic boundary value problems of determining a Robin coefficient on a hidden part of the boundary from Cauchy data on the observable part. Such a nonlinear inverse problem arises naturally in the initialization of large-scale ice sheet models that are crucial in climate and sea-level predictions. We motivate the Bayesian approach for a prototypical Robin inverse problem by showing that the posterior mean converges in probability to the data-generating ground truth as the number of observations increases. Related to the stability theory for inverse Robin problems, we establish a logarithmic convergence rate for Sobolev-regular Robin coefficients, whereas for analytic coefficients we can attain an algebraic rate. The use of rescaled analytic Gaussian priors in posterior consistency for nonlinear inverse problems is new and may be of separate interest in other inverse problems. Our numerical results illustrate the convergence property in two observation settings. |
| Keywords: | nonlinear inverse problems; Bayesian inference; posterior consistency; Gaussian processes; MCMC |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126262 |
| By: | Andrea Xamo (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Roberto Ricciuti (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | Italy, a latecomer country to industrialization, faced the hurdles of lacking coal in the age of steam. When the technology for long-distance electricity transmission became available, it invested heavily in hydropower. By 1911, 42.7% of Italy’s installed industrial power came from hydroelectricity. Using methodologies rooted in New Economic Geography (NEG) and factor endowment theories, we analyze the location of industrial activity across Italian provinces during the census years 1901 and 1911. We evaluate the influence of electric power as a distinct factor alongside traditional determinants such as market potential, human capital, and energy intensity. Our approach incorporates new data on GDP, literacy, and energy stocks, enabling a fine-grained analysis at the NUTS-3 level. Dependent variables include provincial shares of industrial employment and GDP, regressed on interactions between industrial and provincial characteristics. Baseline OLS findings highlight the role of electricity in industrial location, with its influence growing markedly between 1901 and 1911. Alternative specifications and instrumental variable techniques confirm these results, underscoring electricity’s transformative role in reducing Italy’s dependence on water-powered manufacturing. These findings align with broader interpretations of electrification’s role in enabling industrial diversification and regional economic development during the Second Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | Electrification, industry location, Italian manufacturing, market potential, factor endowments, Liberal Italy. |
| JEL: | N73 N93 O18 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:01/2025 |
| By: | Boon-Falleur, Melusine; Huillery, Elise; Chevallier, Coralie |
| Abstract: | Understanding socioeconomic differences in patience is crucial, because time preferences influence various life outcomes, including education and earnings. Previous research consistently shows that people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds (SES) display less patient behaviors, and are more likely to prioritize immediate over delayed rewards. However, most studies rely on laboratory tasks or monetary trade-offs to measure patience, which limits real-world generalisability. This study investigates SES-related differences in waiting behaviour in the context of French higher education admissions. To do so, we leveraged a unique national database that recorded the admission behaviour of every high schooler in France over a period of three years. During the admissions process, students faced a trade-off: they could either accept an immediate offer from a university or wait in the hope of receiving a preferred offer later. Results collected among 274, 316 students reveal that low-SES students were significantly less likely to wait for preferred offers, even when controlling for academic performance, aspirations, and costs such as relocation. This led low-SES students to ultimately enroll in programmes they liked less and that were less prestigious. These results highlight how admission algorithms rewarding patience may inadvertently exacerbate educational inequalities. Such systems, while efficient, can end up favouring students who wait more. This research contributes to current discussions on algorithmic fairness by illustrating that seemingly neutral algorithms can in fact deepen social inequalities if their design rewards patience. It also provides a real life example of socioeconomic differences in patience that are not related to budget constraints. |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:f7w3v |