|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Marc Dordal i Carreras; Seung Joo Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a business cycle model that integrates financial markets and endogenous financial volatility at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB). We derive three key insights: first, central banks can mitigate excess financial volatility at the ZLB by credibly committing to future economic stabilization; second, a commitment to refraining from future stabilization can steer the economy toward more favorable equilibrium paths, thereby revealing a trade-off between future stabilization and reduced financial volatility at the ZLB; third, maintaining uncertainty regarding the timing of future stabilization is strictly superior to alternative forward guidance commitments. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, forward guidance, financial volatility, risk premium |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E44 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12034 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA); Joël Marbet (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Galo Nuño (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Omar Rachedi (ESADE BUSINESS SCHOOL) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how household inequality shapes the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates on aggregate dynamics. To do so, we consider a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and solve for its fully non-linear stochastic equilibrium using a novel neural network algorithm. In this setting, changes in the monetary policy stance influence households’precautionary savings by altering the frequency of ZLB events. As a result, the model features monetary policy non-neutrality in the long run. The degree of long-run non-neutrality, i.e., by how much monetary policy shifts real rates in the ergodic distribution of the model, can be substantial when we combine low inflation targets and high levels of wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous agents, HANK models, neural networks, non-linear dynamics |
| JEL: | D31 E12 E21 E31 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2407 |
| By: | Eliezer Borenstein (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | I analyze a setting in which monetary policy has a state dependent effect due to an endogenously driven information channel. Specifically, I develop a model of investment in risky capital, where a central bank holds private information regarding the state of the economy and sets an interest rate accordingly in order to stabilize aggregate demand. Lowering the interest rate stimulates investment via the standard channel, but also signals weaker economic conditions, which reduces investors' confidence and their desire to invest. The information effect is negligible when the economy is strong, but can become significant when the economy is weaker. In a sufficiently weak economy, reducing the interest rate generates a decline in investment. Thus, a policy aimed at stimulating investment might unintentionally cause the opposite result, weakening aggregate demand even further. The reduction in aggregate demand is inefficient, as it reflects a coordination failure among investors. In line with the model's s prediction, I provide empirical evidence suggesting that the information effect of monetary policy is stronger in times of weaker economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | Central bank information effects, Monetary policy, Financial crisis, Stock market |
| JEL: | D83 E43 E44 E52 G01 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2025.03 |
| By: | Diego R. Känzig; Maximilian Konradt; Lixing Wang; Donghai Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between green innovation and the business cycle, revealing that while non-green innovation is procyclical, green innovation is countercyclical. This pattern holds unconditionally over the business cycle and conditional on economic shocks. Motivated by these findings, we develop a business cycle model with endogenous green and non-green innovation to explain their distinct cyclical behavior. The key mechanism operates through a ‘green is in the future’ channel: green patents are expected to generate higher profits in the future, making green patenting less sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations. In general equilibrium, this channel is reinforced, making green and non-green innovation effective substitutes. We provide direct evidence supporting the model mechanism using data on market-implied values of green and non-green patents. |
| JEL: | E32 O31 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34041 |
| By: | Volz, Ute; Wicknig, Florian |
| Abstract: | We propose novel measures to evaluate the risk profile of longer-term inflation expectations, using data on inflation probabilities from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Unlike existing indicators, these measures specifically incorporate the central bank's inflation target. This allows for a more precise assessment of forecasters' perceptions of risks to the central bank's ability to achieve its target. Consequently, these measures provide a valuable additional criterion for assessing the degree of expectation anchoring. In contrast to other metrics, our measures indicate that, between 2014 and 2017 as well as during the Covid-19 crisis, professional forecasters saw the risk that inflation could undershoot the target in the longer term. Moreover, our indicators suggest that, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, survey participants perceived a risk of inflation overshooting the target four to five years ahead. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Expectations, Monetary Policy, Survey of Professional Forecasters |
| JEL: | E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:323949 |
| By: | Bachmann, Ruediger |
| Abstract: | * Die zweite Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps könnte die Vereinigten Staaten noch tiefer in eine erratische, autoritär geprägte Politik treiben - mit globalen Folgen. Deutschland und Europa dürfen darauf nicht mit Abwarten reagieren, sondern müssen strategisch und entschlossen handeln. Dabei liegt die Unberechenbarkeit Trumps nicht allein an seiner Persönlichkeit, sondern ist strukturell bedingt. Der sogenannte Trumpismus ist keine konsistente Ideologie, sondern ein instabiles Machtbündnis verschiedenster Strömungen - von christlichem Nationalismus über Großmachtchauvinismus bis hin zu technokratischem Oligarchendenken. Diese Koalition bleibt nur durch autoritäre Führungsloyalität und Feindbildmobilisierung zusammen - und produziert damit zwangsläufig erratische Politik. * Auch ökonomisch drohen massive Verwerfungen. Trumps protektionistische Agenda ist ineffizient und teils bewusst destruktiv angelegt. Besonders gravierend: Die fahrlässige Zoll- und Schuldenpolitik gefährdet die weltweite Rolle des US-Dollars als Reservewährung. Die Welt benötigt momentan aber den Kapitalmarkt der USA, während die USA sich damit einen hohen Konsum finanzieren können. Ein Rückzug globaler Kapitalströme aus den USA würde daher nicht nur der amerikanischen Wirtschaft schaden, sondern auch das internationale Finanzsystem destabilisieren. Erste Anzeichen für einen solchen Vertrauensverlust sind bereits sichtbar. * Die richtige Reaktion Deutschlands und vor allem Europas auf diese Erratik und Unsicherheit ist gerade kein Attentismus, sondern ein proaktives Umgehen damit. Europa muss unter den Bedingungen einer großmachtpolitisch geprägten Welt selbst zu einer strategischen Großmacht werden - militärisch, ökonomisch und kulturell. Andernfalls droht der politische Bedeutungsverlust in einer zunehmend multipolaren Welt. * Während bei der militärischen Stärkung erste Schritte erkennbar sind, fehlt es an einer ambitionierten Innovations- und Wachstumspolitik. Besonders kritisch sind die Rückschritte Europas bei Bildung und kulturellem Einfluss: Statt globale Talente anzuziehen, dominierten Abschottungstendenzen und provinzielles Denken - etwa in der deutschen Hochschul- und Steuerpolitik. * Die vorliegende Analyse zeichnet ein besorgniserregendes Bild der transatlantischen Zukunft: Die USA unter Trumps zweiter Präsidentschaft könnten multilaterale Institutionen weiter schwächen, Europa nicht mehr als Partner, sondern als Rivalen betrachten. Ein nostalgischer Transatlantizismus ist deshalb keine tragfähige Option mehr. Ein Europa, das aus vielen Schweizen besteht, ist nicht überlebensfähig. Nur eine geeinte, gestaltungsfähige europäische Großmacht könnte dem globalen Machtvakuum etwas entgegensetzen. Die politische Existenz Europas steht auf dem Spiel. |
| Abstract: | * Economically, Trumpism creates multiple problems. Trump's protectionist agenda is inefficient and in some cases deliberately destructive. His reckless tariff and debt policy is jeopardizing the global role of the US dollar as a reserve currency. The world currently needs the US capital market, while the US can use it to finance a high level of consumption. A withdrawal of global capital flows from the US would therefore not only damage the American economy but also destabilize the international financial system. The first signs of such a loss of confidence can already be seen. * Trump's tariff threats against the EU, but also his 'One Big Beautiful Bill' are just the latest examples of such reckless policy measures. OBBB provides fiscal stimulus at the wrong time with bad distributional effects. The right response from Germany and, above all, Europe to this erraticism and uncertainty is not one of waiting around, but a proactive approach. Under the conditions of a world characterized by great power politics, Europe itself must become a strategic great power-militarily, economically, and culturally. Otherwise, there is a risk of losing political relevance in an increasingly multipolar world. * While the first steps towards strengthening the military have been taken, an ambitious innovation and growth agenda is missing. According to the Kiel Report, Europe is moving in the wrong direction in terms of educational and cultural influence: instead of attempting to attract global talent, isolationist tendencies and provincial thinking dominate-for example in higher education and tax policy. * The analysis paints a worrying picture of the transatlantic future: the USA under Trump's second presidency will further weaken multilateral institutions and no longer see Europe as a partner, but as a rival. Nostalgic transatlanticism is therefore no longer a viable option. * A Europe made up of many Switzerlands is not viable. Only a united, creative Europe will be able to stand up towards the rising authoritarian powers in the world. Europe's political existence is at stake. |
| Keywords: | Donald Trump, USA, Populismus, Wirtschaftspolitik |
| JEL: | D72 E60 E65 E66 H60 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkrp:323951 |
| By: | Dimakopoulou, Vasiliki; Economides, George; Philippopoulos, Apostolis |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the future implications of repayment of bailout loans received by Greece from the EU in the previous decade. These debt obligations amount today to around 240 billion euros or 70% of the country’s total public debt and have to be repaid by 2070. This is investigated in a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the Greek economy, in which fiscal policy is conducted under the rules of the new fiscal governance framework and quantitative monetary policy is subject to the rules of the Eurosystem. Our simulations show that, other things equal, repayment will have recessionary implications in the years to come, although the magnitude of these unpleasant implications will depend on how much privately-held public debt rises as the EU-held public debt falls. We then search for ways to mitigate these recessionary effects. While NGEU/RRF funds as they take place at the moment, as well as a new hypothetical support from the ES in the form of more quantitative easing are found to have small and/or temporary beneficial effects only, our simulations show that what can really help is an improvement in total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy; international loans; monetary regimes |
| JEL: | F34 E62 E42 |
| Date: | 2025–07–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128999 |
| By: | Schedelik, Michael; Nölke, Andreas |
| Abstract: | The paper departs from the perspective of "second image IPE, " i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global economy (a typical focus of CPE) are strongly shaped by their interdependencies with the structural transformations of the global economy (as studied by IPE). At the same time, the changes within the growth models of large economies in this periphery (CPE) can have a major impact on global interdependencies (IPE). For example, the rise of China as a major player in world trade and investment ("China shock") has had a substantial impact on growth models elsewhere in the periphery, via import penetration, direct investment, and export demand. This paper shows how these growth models shape (and are shaped through) international interdependencies by analyzing (1) the effects of global commodity cycles on the growth experience of several major exporters of primary resources, such as Brazil or Indonesia, during and after the recent commodity boom. (2) We further elaborate on the effects of global financial cycles on peripheral countries, particularly those pursuing debt-led growth models, such as South Africa or Turkey. (3) We finally point to the role of global production chains and foreign direct investment for FDI-led growth models of manufacturing exporters such as Thailand or Vietnam in South East Asia. |
| Abstract: | Das Discussion Paper geht von der "second image IPE"-Perspektive aus, das heißt der Notwendigkeit, die Vergleichende Politische Ökonomie (VPÖ) und die Internationale Politische Ökonomie (IPÖ) eng miteinander zu verknüpfen. Konkret konzentriert es sich auf die Beobachtung, dass die Wachstumsmodelle in der (ehemaligen) Peripherie der Weltwirtschaft (ein typischer Schwerpunkt der VPÖ) stark von ihren Interdependenzen mit den strukturellen Transformationen der Weltwirtschaft (wie sie von der IPÖ untersucht werden) geprägt sind. Gleichzeitig können die Veränderungen innerhalb der Wachstumsmodelle großer Volkswirtschaften in dieser Peripherie (VPÖ) erhebliche Auswirkungen auf globale Interdependenzen (IPÖ) haben. So hatte beispielsweise der Aufstieg Chinas zu einem wichtigen Akteur im Welthandel und bei Investitionen ("China-Schock") über Importpenetration, Direktinvestitionen und Exportnachfrage erheblichen Einfluss auf die Wachstumsmodelle in anderen Teilen der Peripherie. Das Paper zeigt, wie diese Wachstumsmodelle internationale Interdependenzen prägen (und durch sie geprägt werden), indem es erstens die Effekte globaler Rohstoffzyklen auf die Wachstumserfahrungen mehrerer bedeutender Exporteure von Primärressourcen wie Brasilien oder Indonesien während und nach dem jüngsten Rohstoffboom analysiert. Zweitens erörtert das Paper die Auswirkungen globaler Finanzzyklen auf Peripherieländer, insbesondere auf jene, die schuldengetriebene Wachstumsmodelle verfolgen, wie Südafrika oder die Türkei. Drittens untersucht es die Rolle globaler Produktionsketten und ausländischer Direktinvestitionen für FDI-getriebene Wachstumsmodelle von Exporteuren von Fertigungsgütern wie Thailand oder Vietnam in Südostasien. |
| Keywords: | commodity prices, comparative political economy, emerging economies, financial flows, foreign direct investment, global economy, global production chains, growth models, international political economy, middle-income trap, second image IPE, ausländische Direktinvestitionen, Falle des mittleren Einkommens, Finanzströme, globale Produktionsketten, Internationale Politische Ökonomie, Rohstoffpreise, Schwellenländer, Vergleichende Politische Ökonomie, Wachstumsmodelle, Weltwirtschaft |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:323933 |
| By: | Ruofei Ma; Zhebiao Cai; Wenpin Tang; David Yao |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study an investor's optimal entry and exit decisions in a liquid staking protocol (LSP) and an automated market maker (AMM), primarily from the standpoint of the investor. Our analysis focuses on two key investor actions: the initial allocation decision at time t=0, and the optimal timing of exit. First, we derive an optimal allocation strategy that enables the investor to distribute risk across the LSP, AMM, and direct holding. Our results also offer insights for LSP and AMM designers, identifying the necessary and sufficient conditions under which the investor is incentivized to stake through an LSP, and further, to provide liquidity in addition to staking. These conditions include a lower bound on the transaction fee, for which we propose a fee mechanism that attains the bound. Second, given a fixed protocol design, we model the optimal exit timing of an individual investor using Laplace transforms and free-boundary techniques. We analyze scenarios with and without transaction fees. In the absence of fees, we decompose the investor's payoff into impermanent loss and opportunity cost, and provide theoretical results characterizing the investor's payoff and the optimal exit threshold. With transaction fees, we conduct numerical analyses to examine how fee accumulation influences exit strategies. Our results reveal that in both settings, a stop-loss strategy often maximizes the investor's expected payoff, driven by opportunity gains and the accumulation of fees where fees are present. Our analyses rely on various tools from stochastic processes and control theory, as well as convex optimization and analysis. We further support our theoretical insights with numerical experiments and explore additional properties of the investor's value function and optimal behavior. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.14810 |
| By: | Magacho, Guilherme; Spinola, Danilo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a continuous-time behavioural ecological macroeconomic model grounded in the dynamic input–output (IO) framework, named ESTEEM, and applies it to the Brazilian economy. The model is calibrated using Brazil’s IO matrix, and its primary goal is to serve as a policy and scenario-building toolbox, illustrated here through the Brazilian Economic Transformation Plan (Plano de Transformação Ecológica), announced at COP28 in 2023. Tailored for open developing economies, the model extends traditional IO analysis by integrating dynamic feedback loops, sectoral investment behaviour, inventory dynamics, wage and price formation, environmental pressures and constraints, and a range of policy instruments. Combining structuralist foundations with system dynamics, ESTEEM captures both short-term disequilibrium and long-term development paths, allowing simulations of industrial policy, fiscal and monetary interventions, structural change, and ecological transitions. Key innovations include the endogenisation of capital accumulation, adaptive expectations, and green technological change. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic input-output; Ecological macroeconomics; Brazilian economy; Structuralism; Sustainable finance; Balance-of-Payment constraints; Green industrialization. |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:akf:cafewp:38 |
| By: | Ethan Buchman; Paolo Dini; Shoaib Ahmed; Andrew Miller; Toma\v{z} Fleischman |
| Abstract: | For centuries, financial institutions have responded to liquidity challenges by forming closed, centralized clearing clubs with strict rules and membership that allow them to collaborate on using the least money to discharge the most debt. As closed clubs, much of the general public has been excluded from participation. But the vast majority of private sector actors consists of micro or small firms that are vulnerable to late payments and generally ineligible for bank loans. This low liquidity environment often results in gridlock and leads to insolvency, and it disproportionately impacts small enterprises and communities. On the other hand, blockchain communities have developed open, decentralized settlement systems, along with a proliferation of store of value assets and new lending protocols, allowing anyone to permissionlessly transact and access credit. However, these protocols remain used primarily for speculative purposes, and so far have fallen short of the large-scale positive impact on the real economy prophesied by their promoters. We address these challenges by introducing Cycles, an open, decentralized clearing, settlement, and issuance protocol. Cycles is designed to enable firms to overcome payment inefficiencies, to reduce their working capital costs, and to leverage diverse assets and liquidity sources, including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and lending protocols, in service of clearing more debt with less money. Cycles solves real world liquidity challenges through a privacy-preserving multilateral settlement platform based on a graph optimization algorithm. The design is based on a core insight: liquidity resides within cycles in the payment network's structure and can be accessed via settlement flows optimized to reduce debt. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.22309 |
| By: | Garcia, Noelia Anahí |
| Abstract: | El cooperativismo es una modalidad de organización basada en una serie de valores y principios contrarios a la asimetría de poder y el fin de lucro que prevalecen en una empresa capitalista típica. Las cooperativas existen Argentina hace más de un centenio y han desarrollado estructuras que ha resultado ser funcionales en tiempos de crisis. Se trata de empresas, entendiendo como tales a entidades organizadas que operan en el mercado, donde la propiedad es conjunta y su gestión y control son contrapuestos al individualismo. Esto implica la necesidad de contar con pautas que permitan organizar la toma de decisiones y clarificar los derechos y obligaciones de las personas asociadas, para hacer más efectivo su funcionamiento, tratando de evitar conflictos, arbitrariedades y dilaciones en la operatoria diaria. Una herramienta para formalizar dichas pautas es el reglamento interno. Sin embargo, no parecen sencillos su diseño, desarrollo, implementación y seguimiento; en consecuencia, la búsqueda de antecedentes acerca de cómo identificar el momento adecuado para iniciar el proceso colectivo para establecer la formalización, resultó dificultosa. Este trabajo consiste en una investigación acerca de la situación de las cooperativas de trabajo del Partido de General Pueyrredon, provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina, en los años 2019-2023, respecto de su grado de formalización y su relación con situaciones de conflicto. En él se podrá observar que la cantidad de cooperativas que regularizan sus reglamentos internos frente al organismo de contralor es mínima, aunque una proporción notoriamente mayor reconoce contar con acuerdos formalizados para su funcionamiento cotidiano. Con el fin de conocer la situación actual y la coyuntura en la que dichas organizaciones actúan, se presenta un trabajo empírico basado principalmente en la revisión de documentación, así como también en el análisis de entrevistas en profundidad, para finalmente realizar propuestas acordes a su realidad. En ese recorrido, se pudo identificar necesidades que impulsan a estas organizaciones a formalizar su comportamiento, factores que dificultan y favorecen los procesos de construcción antes mencionados, y la relación que guardan estos instrumentos con la gestión de los conflictos. Todo ello, reconociendo las particularidades de las cooperativas de trabajo prestadoras de servicios en cada actividad a la que se dedican, estudiando su cultura, su ideología y, principalmente, analizando las propias experiencias vividas a lo largo de su historia, tomando para hacerlo una muestra de las mismas en el Partido de General Pueyrredon, provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina. |
| Keywords: | Cooperativismo; Cooperativas; Burocracia; Resolución de Conflictos; Partido de General Pueyrredon; 2019-2023; |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4366 |
| By: | Souryabrata Mohapatra (Indian Institute of Technology, Jodhpur); Amit Mitra (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Sanjib Pohit (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | India is facing a looming water crisis driven by rapid urbanisation, population growth, groundwater depletion, and climate variability. Despite receiving over 3, 800 billion cubic metres of annual precipitation, the country utilises less than one-third effectively due to uneven rainfall distribution, inadequate storage infrastructure, and poor water governance. Per capita water availability has declined sharply, while demand is projected to double by 2030. Agriculture remains the dominant water consumer, though industrial and domestic demands are rising rapidly. Groundwater over-extraction—particularly in states like Punjab, Rajasthan, and Delhi—has led to critical depletion, with 22% of groundwater blocks categorised as overexploited. Climate change further exacerbates water stress through erratic monsoons, glacial retreats, and increasing droughts and floods. This paper assesses systemic challenges across the water sector in India, from source sustainability to end-use efficiency. It also highlights policy evolution, institutional bottlenecks, and emerging governance initiatives. The study emphasises the urgent need for integrated water resource management, investment in wastewater recycling, demand-side interventions, and climate-resilient infrastructure to ensure water security. A multi-pronged strategy is essential for safeguarding livelihoods, supporting economic development, and achieving long-term sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Water scarcity, Groundwater depletion, Climate change, Urbanisation, Water governance and management, India |
| JEL: | O21 Q25 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:182 |
| By: | Mariam Alfaro-Navarro (Data Integration and Analysis Department, Central Bank of Costa Rica) |
| Abstract: | El análisis de la pobreza en Costa Rica durante el período 2023-2024 mostró una reducción significativa en la tasa de pobreza monetaria, que pasó del 21, 8% al 18, 0%, y en la pobreza extrema, que disminuyó del 6, 3% al 4, 8%. Este avance fue impulsado por el crecimiento del ingreso per cápita, mejoras en la redistribución del ingreso y una reducción en el costo de vida. Sin embargo, persisten desigualdades regionales. Destaca la región Brunca como la única sin avances debido a barreras estructurales. También se observó una disminución en la pobreza multidimensional, aunque algunas regiones, como Huetar Norte, enfrentaron aumentos en la incidencia de privaciones. Las transferencias monetarias, particularmente las pensiones, y el empleo se consolidaron como herramientas clave para la reducción de la pobreza, pero se requiere de estrategias regionales específicas para abordar desigualdades y promover un desarrollo más inclusivo y sostenible. |
| Keywords: | Poverty; Multidimensional Poverty; Monetary Poverty; Shapley Decomposition; Inequality; Pobreza; Pobreza monetaria; Pobreza multidimensional; Desigualdad; Descomposición de Shapley |
| JEL: | I32 D31 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apk:epolec:2501 |
| By: | Courtoy, François; De Vroey, Michel; Turati, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | The aim of our paper is to assess what we call the 'discrepancy hypothesis'. It states that the transformation of macroeconomics triggered by Lucas, Kydland and Prescott has failed to percolate in the contents of undergraduate textbooks. In the theoretical part of the paper, we draw a contrast between AS-AD and DGE modeling based on three benchmarks: the presence of microfoundations, the expectations assumption and the equilibrium concept used. In its empirical part, we measure how undergraduate textbooks fare with respect to AS-AD/DGE divide. We use two sources, the WorldCat database, and a survey of the undergraduate textbooks used for teaching in leading universities. The discrepancy hypothesis is confirmed. Thirty-four out of the thirty-nine textbooks retained from the WorldCat catalogue are based on the AS-AD, and three on the DGE core model. Eleven out of twelve most used undergraduate textbooks of the teaching sample adopt the AS-AD line. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics, textbooks, IS-LM/AS-AD, DGE |
| JEL: | A22 A23 E00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1644 |
| By: | Tony Paul, Nitin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores a normative framework for portfolio selection, the Principle of State-Contingent Optimality (SCO), recasting the classic challenge of finding a single, robust portfolio as a problem in the geometry of distributions. The objective is formulated as minimizing the expected divergence between a portfolio’s realized return distribution and a state-dependent, ideal target across all possible market conditions. By employing a metric like the Wasserstein distance, this approach moves beyond simple moments to compare the full shape and character of outcomes, aiming to identify a strategy that is holistically resilient to an uncertain future. We acknowledge that the principle, in its purest form, rests on profound idealizations: a Platonic target distribution, a knowable state-space, and the validity of ensemble averaging. Rather than treating these as insurmountable barriers, we frame them as explicit signposts for a structured research program. The framework is therefore offered as a theoretical lens, one that cleanly separates the philosophical act of defining investment goals from the mathematical task of achieving them. In doing so, our hope is to provide a more principled way to critique existing methods and guide future inquiry toward truly robust financial solutions. |
| Keywords: | Portfolio Theory, State-Contingent Claims, Stochastic Volatility, Incomplete Markets, Ergodicity, Optimal Transport, Theoretical Finance, Normative Benchmark. |
| JEL: | C02 D52 G11 |
| Date: | 2025–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125652 |
| By: | Niehues, Judith; Stockhausen, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Je nach Altersgruppe unterscheiden sich Höhe und Verteilung der Vermögen deutlich. In der Vergleichsgruppe der unter 35-Jährigen genügte im Jahr 2023 ein Haushaltsnettovermögen in Höhe von 17.300 Euro, um zur vermögensreicheren Hälfte dieser Gruppe zu gehören. Demgegenüber lag das Medianvermögen der 55- bis 64-Jährigen beinahe bei einer Viertelmillion Euro (241.100 Euro). Gleichzeitig fällt die relative Ungleichheit in Vergleichsgruppen mit höherem Alter niedriger aus als in jüngeren Altersgruppen. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:321914 |
| By: | Bingqi Liu; Kangqiang Li; Tianxiao Pang |
| Abstract: | Bayesian quantile regression based on the asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) likelihood suffers from two fundamental limitations: the non-differentiability of the check loss precludes gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and the posterior mean provides biased quantile estimates. We propose Bayesian smoothed quantile regression (BSQR), which replaces the check loss with a kernel-smoothed version, creating a continuously differentiable likelihood. This smoothing has two crucial consequences: it enables efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling, and it yields a consistent posterior distribution, thereby resolving the inferential bias of the standard approach. We further establish conditions for posterior propriety under various priors (including improper and hierarchical) and characterize how kernel choice affects posterior concentration and computational efficiency. Extensive simulations validate our theoretical findings, demonstrating that BSQR achieves up to a 50% reduction in predictive check loss at extreme quantiles compared to ALD-based methods, while improving MCMC efficiency by 20-40% in effective sample size. An empirical application to financial risk measurement during the COVID-19 era illustrates BSQR's practical advantages in capturing dynamic systemic risk. The BSQR framework provides a theoretically-grounded and computationally-efficient solution to longstanding challenges in Bayesian quantile regression, with compact-support kernels like the uniform and triangular emerging as particularly effective choices. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.01738 |
| By: | Iñaki Aldasoro; Jon Frost; Sang Hyuk Lim; Fernando Perez-Cruz; Hyun Song Shin |
| Abstract: | Existing anti-money laundering (AML) approaches relying on trusted intermediaries have limited effectiveness with decentralised record-keeping in permissionless public blockchains. The public transaction history on blockchains can enable AML and other compliance efforts, such as FX regulations, by leveraging the provenance and history of any particular unit or balance of a cryptoasset, including stablecoins. An AML compliance score based on the likelihood that a particular cryptoasset unit or balance is linked with illicit activity may be referenced at points of contact with the banking system ("off-ramps"), preventing inflows of the proceeds of illicit activity and supporting a culture of "duty of care" among crypto market participants. |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:111 |
| By: | Gardner, Benjamin (University of Surrey); Walker, Ian (Swansea University); Daly, James Edward Michael; Brown, Julia (University of Portsmouth); Voss, Sofie; Pereira-Doel, Pablo (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | The UK water sector wants to embrace behavioural science to alleviate water scarcity. We co-created, with over 100 individuals from 60 organisations within the UK water sector, an agenda to identify behaviour change priorities. Three activities were undertaken: a workshop, online survey, and webinar. Written input (workshop, webinar) was synthesised to identify and thematise key questions. Survey data quantified the prioritisation of questions. Of seven themes identified, five focused on consumers (identifying behaviour change targets, understanding water use perceptions and behaviour, navigating public acceptability, developing behavioural solutions, contextualising behaviour change), and two on the water sector (building capacity and knowledge, moving beyond behaviour change). Fixing leaks, showering, and toilet-flushing were deemed the most important behaviours to change. Prioritised knowledge gaps focused on identifying behaviours to target, and delivering effective and acceptable water efficiency initiatives. The agenda can be used to guide future domestic water efficiency behaviour change research and action. |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9j6zk_v1 |
| By: | Gardner, Benjamin (University of Surrey); Walker, Ian (Swansea University); Daly, James Edward Michael; Brown, Julia (University of Portsmouth); Voss, Sofie; Pereira-Doel, Pablo (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | The UK water sector wants to embrace behavioural science to alleviate water scarcity. We co-created, with over 100 individuals from 60 organisations within the UK water sector, an agenda to identify behaviour change priorities. Three activities were undertaken: a workshop, online survey, and webinar. Written input (workshop, webinar) was synthesised to identify and thematise key questions. Survey data quantified the prioritisation of questions. Of seven themes identified, five focused on consumers (identifying behaviour change targets, understanding water use perceptions and behaviour, navigating public acceptability, developing behavioural solutions, contextualising behaviour change), and two on the water sector (building capacity and knowledge, moving beyond behaviour change). Fixing leaks, showering, and toilet-flushing were deemed the most important behaviours to change. Prioritised knowledge gaps focused on identifying behaviours to target, and delivering effective and acceptable water efficiency initiatives. The agenda can be used to guide future domestic water efficiency behaviour change research and action. |
| Date: | 2025–07–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9j6zk_v3 |
| By: | Castillo, José Gabriel; Hernandez, Manuel A. |
| Abstract: | Preferences play a key role in decision-making and are generally assumed as time-invariant in economic modeling despite the mixed empirical evidence. We examine the stability of individual and social preferences in rural settings using the COVID-19 pandemic as a major global shock. We employ a unique longitudinal dataset comprising 1, 262 smallholder households, based on interviews with household heads conducted across four survey waves between 2019 and 2022. We find a temporal, two-year shift in risk tolerance, while interpersonal trust and generosity perceptions show a sustained deterioration over three years. We explore possible variations by household characteristics and the degree of exposure to the virus, self-confinement, and extreme weather events. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; decision making; extreme weather events; risk; rural areas; stability; Guatemala; Americas; Central America |
| Date: | 2025–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:175452 |
| By: | Klingebiel, Stephan; Sumner, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This policy brief situates the crisis of Official Development Assistance (ODA) within a broader transformation of global development cooperation. Today's challenge goes beyond shrinking aid budgets; it reflects deeper pressures on the post-Cold War development consensus and its institutional architecture. Development cooperation is under strain due to spending cuts by the US and parts of Europe, alongside the rise of nationalist approaches, especially in the United States (US). The longstanding policy norms - framing development as a shared global endeavour, combining moral and strategic redistribution and favouring multilateral coordination - are eroding. Fiscal pressures and domestic priorities have weakened elite and public support for ODA, while populist movements often frame aid as conflicting with national interests. At the same time, development finance has become more geopolitical, increasingly tied to foreign policy, migration deterrence and economic diplomacy. This transactional approach coincides with a retreat from multilateralism, declining support for the UN system, and fragmentation among donors and recipients. The landscape has also diversified, with emerging actors such as China, the Gulf states and new development banks offering alternative financing, governance models and priorities. Many middle-income countries now access international financial markets, reducing dependency on OECD donors. As a result, development cooperation has become a field of strategic contestation. While these trends have evolved gradually over the past decade, the approach of the second administration of US President Donald Trump has accelerated them. Simultaneously, economic progress in parts of the Global South has fostered expectations for reciprocal partnerships rather than traditional donor-recipient hierarchies. The challenge, then, is to reimagine the future of development cooperation in ways that are politically feasible and institutionally resilient. This policy brief argues that this requires rethinking the foundations of development cooperation, rebuilding multilateral credibility and navigating a more pluralistic and geopolitically divided global order. We propose four plausible options, each reflecting a different configuration of value-based, institutional and political alignment: • Option 1 assumes a renewed political commitment to development as a global public good, and revitalised leadership from both North and South. • Option 2 suggests continuity with diminished ambition: multilateralism persists, but its core weakens, with development focused more on stability than transformation. • Option 3 offers a decentralised, experimental path driven by new actors and coalitions. While less coherent, it avoids the worst effects of fragmentation. • Option 4 reflects a marked shift towards increased bilateralism, ideological filtering, and instrumentalism. |
| Keywords: | development cooperation, development policy, Official Development Assistance, ODA, Global South, multilateralism, foreign aid, Donald Trump, geopolitisation, soft power |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:323249 |
| By: | Lucía Ramírez Leira (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Carlo Lombardo (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & Cornell University); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET) |
| Abstract: | In Argentina, the national minimum wage (NMW) coexists with sectoral wage floors (WF) established through collective bargaining agreements (CBA). These WFs exceed the NMW for most registered workers, rendering the minimum wage largely ineffective. Using novel data on union-negotiated wages combined with administrative records, this paper analyzes the impact of WFs set in CBAs on employment, wages, and wage inequality among formal workers. The analysis is conducted at both the industry and individual levels, utilizing a fixed-effects model by year and sector and a linear probability model based on individual worker trajectories. Results indicate that CBAs reduce overall wage inequality by decreasing inequality at the upper end of the distribution without affecting the lower end. No significant employment effects are found, except for a negative impact in sectors with a higher proportion of small firms (MSMEs). However, at the worker level, CBAs reduce the probability of remaining employed for work- ers near the wage floors, with more negative effects observed in MSMEs. Finally, CBAs’ positive effect on wage increases and negative effects on employment are more pronounced in unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. |
| JEL: | J22 J31 J38 K31 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0353 |
| By: | Grimm, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The research presented in this PhD thesis examines various aspects of oyster mushroom cultivation and food security, focusing on production, sustainability and adaptation in the case of Uganda. Due to population growth, decreasing crop land availability, depletion of agricultural resources and climate change, landless food production and circular agricultural systems could play a more important role in the future. It is particularly important to develop sustainable production techniques adapted to the context of sub- Saharan Africa, where the challenges are the greatest. Oyster mushrooms are protein-rich, high-yielding, can by cultivated on a wide range of crop residues and are the most commonly cultivated mushroom in Uganda and many other African countries. This makes them an important subject to study in the context of food security. A review of the scientific literature on mushroom cultivation in the context of recycling discusses several pathways in which mushroom cultivation can contribute to the agricultural system as a whole, in addition to the primary objective of producing mushrooms. The use of spent mushroom substrate for vermicomposting to produce high quality compost and earthworms that can be used as animal feed may be the most promising circular model. However, there are many other options, such as using the mushrooms themselves as animal feed or producing several mushroom species in succession on the same substrate. Since sustainable mushroom production requires an integration with crop and livestock production within a circular system, it is an important question which substrates to use for cultivation. The use of nutrient- poor straw from cereals and legumes for oyster mushroom cultivation is a good option, as these substrates only have very limited value as animal feed. The productivity of four different types of straw was determined experimentally. Maize and soy straw were particularly productive, yielding 9.2 and 8.6 g of dry mushrooms per 100 g of dry substrate. Faba bean straw was significantly less productive, with only 6.6 % of the substrate being converted into mushrooms. However, faba bean straw, which had the highest nitrogen content of the four straw types that were compared, also produced mushrooms with a higher protein content. Wheat straw, on the other hand, was found to be an inferior substrate, yielding only 3.8 g of dry mushrooms per 100 g of dry substrate. Approximately 60 - 80 % of the dry matter, carbon and nitrogen is retained in the spent mushroom substrate after cultivation and between 3.5 kg (on wheat straw) and 2.6 kg (on soy straw) of carbon is emitted per kg of mushroom produced. Despite promising prospects, some aspects of current mushroom production are not sustainable. In particular, the pasteurization or sterilization of mushroom substrates uses a lot of energy and water. In an experimental comparison of four different methods, hot air pasteurization emerges as the most sustainable option. However, it was also found that sterilization can significantly increase oyster mushroom yields compared to pasteurization. The first harvest was up to 50 % higher when the substrate was autoclaved, while no significant difference could be found between the different pasteurization methods. Adapting the use of sustainably sourced substrates and of resource-efficient pasteurization or sterilization methods to Uganda, was found to be challenging but ultimately have great potential for improving local food security. In a case-study, including field work, key-informant interviews and a mushroom cultivation experiment, maize stover was found to be an underutilized resource. 13 % more food and 33 % more protein could be produced on the same land if maize stover was used for mushroom cultivation instead of being burned, which is currently a common practice in Uganda. The main challenges to realizing this potential are infrastructural barriers for collecting and preparing maize straw for mushroom cultivation and for distributing cheap, high-quality mushroom spawn. It is also important to enable Ugandan mushroom farmers to use more sustainable pasteurization practices if mushroom production is to be promoted in the country. Given the great potential of mushroom production to increase food security and improve the 59 sustainability of the agricultural production, more resources should be devoted to researching mushroom cultivation in circular food systems and developing solutions that are applicable to the sub-Saharan African context. |
| Abstract: | Die in dieser Dissertation vorgestellte Forschung untersucht verschiedene Aspekte des Austernpilzanbaus und der Ernährungssicherheit mit Schwerpunkt auf Produktion, Nachhaltigkeit und Anpassung am Beispiel Ugandas. Aufgrund des Bevölkerungswachstums, der abnehmenden Verfügbarkeit von Ackerland, der Erschöpfung landwirtschaftlicher Ressourcen und des Klimawandels könnten landlose Nahrungsmittelproduktion und zirkuläre landwirtschaftliche Systeme in Zukunft eine wichtigere Rolle spielen. Es ist besonders wichtig, nachhaltige Produktionstechniken zu entwickeln, die an den Kontext sub- Sahara Afrikas angepasst sind, wo die Herausforderungen am größten sind. Austernpilze sind proteinreich, ertragreich, können auf einer Vielzahl von Ernterückständen angebaut werden und sind die am häufigsten angebauten Pilze in Uganda und vielen anderen afrikanischen Ländern. Dies macht sie zu einem wichtigen Studienobjekt im Kontext der Ernährungssicherheit. Bei der Analyse der wissenschaftlicher Literatur zum Pilzanbau in Recycling-Kontexten wurden mehrere Möglichkeiten diskutiert wie der Pilzanbau neben dem primären Ziel der Pilzproduktion zum landwirtschaftlichen System insgesamt beitragen kann. Die Verwendung von verbrauchtem Pilzsubstrat für die Wurmkompostierung zur Erzeugung von hochwertigem Kompost und Würmern, die als Futter verwendet werden können, könnte das vielversprechendste Kreislaufmodell sein. Aber auch viele andere Optionen, wie die Verwendung der Pilze selbst als Tierfutter oder die Produktion mehrerer Pilzarten nacheinander auf demselben Substrat, sind erwähnenswert. Da eine nachhaltige Pilzproduktion eine Integration mit Pflanzen- und Tierproduktion innerhalb eines zirkulären Systems erfordert, ist es eine wichtige Frage, welche Substrate für den Anbau verwendet werden sollen. Die Verwendung von nährstoffarmem Getreide- und Leguminosenstroh ist für den Austernpilzanbau ist eine gute Option, da diese Substrate nur einen sehr begrenzten Wert als Tierfutter haben. Die Produktivität von vier verschiedenen Strohsorten wurde experimentell ermittelt. Mais- und Sojastroh waren besonders produktiv und lieferten 9, 2 bzw. 8, 6 g Trockenpilz pro 100 g Trockensubstrat. Ackerbohnenstroh war signifikant weniger produktiv, wobei nur 6, 6 % des Substrats in Pilze umgewandelt wurden. Ackerbohnenstroh, das den höchsten Stickstoffgehalt der vier verglichenen Strohtypen hatte, produzierte jedoch auch Pilze mit einem höheren Proteingehalt. Weizenstroh hingegen erwies sich mit nur 3, 8 g Trockenpilz pro 100 g Trockensubstrat als minderwertiges Substrat. Zwischen 60 - 80 % der Trockenmasse, des Kohlenstoffs und Stickstoffs blieben im verbrauchten Pilzsubstrat nach dem Anbau zurück, und zwischen 3, 5 kg (bei Weizenstroh) und 2, 6 kg (bei Sojastroh) Kohlenstoff wurden pro kg produzierter Pilze emittiert. Trotz vielversprechender Aussichten sind einige Aspekte der derzeitigen Pilzproduktion nicht nachhaltig. Insbesondere die Pasteurisierung oder Sterilisierung von Pilzsubstraten verbraucht viel Energie und Wasser. Im experimentellen Vergleich von vier verschiedenen Methoden erwies sich die Heißluftpasteurisierung als die nachhaltigste Option. Es wurde jedoch auch festgestellt, dass Sterilisierung mit einem Autoklaven die Erträge von Austernpilzen im Vergleich zur Pasteurisierung signifikant erhöhen kann. Die erste Ernte war bis zu 50 % größer, wenn das Substrat autoklaviert wurde, während zwischen den verschiedenen Pasteurisierungsmethoden kein signifikanter Unterschied festgestellt werden konnte Die Verwendung nachhaltig produzierter Substrate und ressourceneffizienter Pasteurisierungs- oder Sterilisierungsmethoden erwies sich im ugandischen Kontext als herausfordernd, birgt jedoch großes Potenzial zur Verbesserung der Ernährungssicherheit. In einer Fallstudie, die Feldarbeit, Interviews und ein Experiment zur Pilzzucht umfasste, wurde festgestellt, dass Maisstroh häufig unproduktiv genutzt wird. 13 % mehr Nahrungsmittel und 33 % mehr Protein könnten auf der gleichen Fläche produziert werden, wenn 60 Maisstroh für den Pilzanbau verwendet würde, anstatt es zu verbrennen, was derzeit in Uganda weit verbreitet ist. Die Hauptprobleme bei der Realisierung dieses Potenzials sind infrastrukturelle Barrieren bei der Sammlung und Aufbereitung von Maisstroh für den Pilzanbau und bei der Bereitstellung von preiswerter, hochwertiger Pilzbrut. Es ist auch wichtig, ugandische Pilzbauer in die Lage zu versetzen, nachhaltigere Pasteurisierungspraktiken anzuwenden, wenn die Pilzproduktion im Land gefördert werden soll. Angesichts des großen Potenzials der Pilzproduktion die Ernährungssicherheit zu erhöhen und die Nachhaltigkeit der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion zu verbessern, sollten mehr Mittel für die Erforschung des Pilzanbaus in zirkulären Ernährungssystemen und für die Entwicklung von Lösungen die auf den Kontext in Subsahara-Afrika anwendbar sind, bereitgestellt werden. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:323200 |
| By: | Fungáčová, Zuzana; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent |
| Abstract: | We extend our previous work on bank lending around elections in Russia's electoral autocracy (Fungáécová et al., 2023) by considering the most recent data on bank lending and 2024 presidential election. Unlike the elections held between 2004 and 2019, our findings show no systematic evidence of increased bank lending ahead the 2024 presidential election. This reduced political interference in pre-election lending since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 may reflect a tendency towards traditional autocracy in Russia. |
| Keywords: | bank, lending, politics, Russia, electoral autocracy, war |
| JEL: | G21 P3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:323945 |
| By: | Valentina Melentyeva (Tilburg University); Lukas Riedel (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | We show that the widespread approach to estimate the career costs of motherhood – so-called “child penalties†– is prone to produce biased results, as it pools first-time mothers of all ages without accounting for their differences in characteristics and outcomes. We propose a novel method building on the recent advances in the difference-in-differences literature to address this issue. Applied to German administrative data, our method yields 30 percent larger post-birth earnings losses than the conventional approach. We document meaningful effect heterogeneity by maternal age in both magnitude and interpretation, highlighting its key role in understanding the impact of motherhood. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, maternal labor supply, heterogeneous treatment effects, event study |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J31 C23 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2519 |
| By: | Ana Gamarra Rondinel; James R. Hines Jr.; José F. Sanz-Sanz |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates Laffer curves produced by reforms to nonlinear income taxes, focusing on individual taxpayers. A reform puts a taxpayer on the “wrong” side of the Laffer curve if it increases their tax burden while reducing tax payments. There always exist potential reforms with this property – and in particular, tax increases restricted to high-income taxpayers are guaranteed to consign some to the wrong side of the Laffer curve. The original design of the 2024 Australian tax reform would have put 15% of the taxpaying population on the wrong side of the Laffer curve, though subsequent modifications reduced this to 5%. Standard tax progressivity measures that ignore the endogeneity of taxable income generally understate the redistributive impact of progressive tax reforms. |
| JEL: | H21 H24 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34059 |
| By: | Melisa Kurtis (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn); Axel Ockenfels (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn); Rastislav Rehák (Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Despite widespread concern about climate change, voluntary mitigation efforts often fail to maximize impact. In two online experiments (n = 1, 500), we elicit willingness to mitigate (WTM) by allowing subjects to delete actual CO2 allowances and examine how they allocate the WTM between their own and another’s footprint. While 75% contribute a nonzero WTM, allocations are often inefficient, and many avoid freely available footprint information, suggesting limited efficiency concerns. Self-reported motives show that only half prioritize impact, while others cite fairness, personal responsibility, or intuition. Moreover, both WTM and efficiency are malleable by impact-unrelated nudges: a video emphasizing personal responsibility increases both, whereas social image based on the own footprint raises WTM but reduces efficiency. Our results suggest that voluntary climate action is shaped as much by psychological and social factors as by concern for impact. |
| Keywords: | climate change, pro-environmental behavior, climate action, willingness to mitigate, impact, efficiency, consequentialism, warm glow, fairness, online experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D01 D61 D62 D64 D83 D91 H41 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2025_13 |
| By: | Elba Gomez Navas Acevedo; Thomas Thorn |
| Abstract: | We share insights about non-bank financial intermediation in Canada in 2023. These data were collected as part of the Bank of Canada’s contribution to the Financial Stability Board’s Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation. |
| Keywords: | Financial institutions; Sectoral balance sheet |
| JEL: | G2 G21 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-19 |