|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Chris Naubert |
| Abstract: | I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian model with irreversible investment and a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using simulated data, I show that the method is able to recover the “true” parameters when using the mixture density network approximation of the initial state distribution. This contrasts with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values. |
| Keywords: | Business Fluctuations and Cycles; Economic Models |
| JEL: | C61 C63 E37 E47 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-3 |
| By: | Alejandro Gurrola Luna (HSBC Mexico); Stephen McKnight (El Colegio de Mexico) |
| Abstract: | We analyze how bounded rationality affects the equilibrium determinacy properties of forecast-based interest-rate rules in a behavioural New Keynesian model with limited asset market participation (LAMP). We show that the key policy prescriptions of rational expectation models do not carry over to behavioural frameworks with myopic agents. In high participation economies, the Taylor principle is more likely to induce indeterminacy when bounded rationality is introduced following the cognitive discounting approach of Gabaix (2020). Indeterminacy arises from a discounting channel and the problem is exacerbated under flexible prices and nominal illusion. In contrast, cognitive discounting plays a stabilizing role in LAMP economies, where passive policy is no longer required to prevent indeterminacy, and determinacy can potentially be restored under the Taylor principle. We investigate how our results depend on the timing of the interest-rate rule, alternative forms of bounded rationality, and the presence of a cost-channel of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Bounded rationality, Cognitive discounting, Equilibrium determinacy, Limited asset markets participation, Taylor principle, Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E44 E52 E71 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2025-02 |
| By: | Andersson, Krister; Nehring, Ryan; Zhang, Wei; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S. |
| Abstract: | The literature on Multistakeholder Processes (MSPs) includes several studies that seek to specify the conditions under which MSPs perform well and deliver tangible governance improvements that would otherwise not happen. This is important research as MSPs are gaining popularity as an alternative to more traditional governance strategies, such as centralized, government-led activities. MSPs are often proposed in institutional settings where formal governance institutions are perceived to be ineffective or inequitable. In principle, studies that explain variation in MSP outcomes have the potential to inform MSP organizers and their decisions about how to organize their future MSPs in ways that save resources and improve outcomes. However, the existing MSP research programs demonstrate at least three limitations: First, the literature is characterized by the production of long lists of potential determinants of MSP performance, which makes it challenging for researchers to offer practical advice as to which of these factors is most important for MSP organizers to address first, and under which contextual conditions. Second, there is little agreement among scholars about what the core elements of a well-functioning MSP are, which elements affect mostly the emergence vis-Ã -vis effectiveness, and it is rare that studies specify which conditions or factors are essential and which may be helpful but not critical ingredients of success. Third, there is a dearth of theory-driven research that uses causal inference methods to test the theoretical propositions, which means that it is difficult to assess the quality of evidence in literature’s existing, mostly descriptive analyses. To advance knowledge about the emergence and flourishing of MSPs, and move beyond the production of long lists of associative success factors, there is an urgent need for researchers to come together in a community of practice to address the noted shortcomings. The Community of Practice will also promote the development of new and innovative ways of conducting MSP work, which will enable researchers to improve outcomes in terms of both cost-effectiveness and equity. In this paper, we review and synthesize the leading hypotheses on MSP emergence and effectiveness, develop a theoretical framework that captures the leading hypotheses, and discuss the viability of employing causal inference methods to test new hypotheses related to the emergence and flourishing of MSPs. We conclude by outlining the contours of a community of practice and how it can help advance MSP scholarship. |
| Keywords: | stakeholders; fora; research |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2312 |
| By: | Giovanni Scarano |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the possible presence and role of the concept of equilibrium in the formulations of the ‘classical economists’ and Marx, also examining the characteristics of the ‘long-period positions’ attributed to these authors. The paper argues that the ‘classical economists’ and Marx only considered all real economic phenomena as momentary results of an unstoppable historical and dynamic process, characterised by continuous conflicts and recompositions. In this context, so-called long-period positions could play a role in determining the dynamics of adjustment without ever being the point of arrival or stasis. This means that, for these authors, long-period positions could be drivers of the gravitation of economic variables, but not necessarily final resting points. It is also argued that the concern to determine the long-period positions of the prices of production did not have a central place in Marx’s analysis. |
| Keywords: | Equilibrium, Dynamics, Attractor, Long-Period Positions, Uniform Rate of Profit, Classical economists |
| JEL: | B12 B14 B51 D50 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0285 |
| By: | Benjamin Bridgman |
| Abstract: | Longevity contributes to welfare, but little is known about the relationship between wealth and longevity prior to World War II. This paper examines longevity of the very highest income people during the 20th century using several “rich lists.” I find that the very wealthy did not have lower mortality early on. Life expectancy at age 40 flipped from a 1.9 year penalty to a 7.5 year bonus. This increase in longevity inequality has a welfare impact that is an order of magnitude larger than increasing consumption inequality from 1950 to 1985. The urban longevity penalty of the early 20th century, particularly due to poor air quality, likely contributed to the rich penalty. The rich, a very urban population, died from causes that were more common in urban areas, particularly pneumonia. |
| JEL: | D31 E01 E21 J11 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bea:papers:0135 |
| By: | Daniele Caratelli |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how wealth affects workers’ willingness to change jobs in recessions and the implications for the economy at large. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:discus:24-01 |
| By: | Michael Brolley; David Cimon |
| Abstract: | Non-bank financial institutions, such as principal-trading firms and hedge funds, increasingly compete with bank-owned dealers in fixed-income markets. Some market participants worry that if non-bank financial institutions push out established bank dealers, liquidity will become unreliable during times of stress. We model non-bank entry and state-dependent liquidity provision. Non-bank participants improve liquidity more during normal times than in stress, leading to a bifurcation of liquidity. In the cross-section, their entry improves liquidity for large and previously unserved small clients; however, banks may no longer provide reliable liquidity to marginal clients. Central bank lending may limit harmful bifurcation during times of stress if that lending is predictable and at sufficiently favourable terms. |
| Keywords: | Economic models; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Market structure and pricing |
| JEL: | G10 G20 G21 G23 L10 L13 L14 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-2 |
| By: | Nicoleta-Elena Heghes (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University of Bucharest; Acad. Andrei Rădulescu Legal Research Institute of Romanian Academy, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The present article proposes a brief presentation of the criminalization rules in Romania that address incidents and provide protection against possible illegal conduct that can be committed online, with reference only to the most common crimes against the person in the online environment. To contextualize the problem that is the subject of this study, preliminary aspects regarding crimes against individuals in general and those likely to be committed online will be presented initially. Subsequently, general considerations will be made regarding the active subject, the passive subject, and the immediate follow-up of the crimes relevant to the matter, as well as procedural aspects. The purpose of this article is to raise an alarm signal and highlight the importance of acts committed in the online environment that could be criminalized from a legal perspective, along with the means available for individuals to protect themselves against potential illicit conduct of malicious persons. |
| Keywords: | Crimes, Online, Injured Person, Immediate Follow-Up |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0443 |
| By: | Liza Fahmida |
| Abstract: | This study explores the challenges and implications of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the banking sector of Bangladesh, highlighting its regulatory framework, implementation gaps, and alignment with sustainable development goals. While the central bank mandates CSR, the profit-driven nature of banking institutions often shifts the focus of CSR initiatives toward competitive advantage and brand enhancement rather than addressing genuine social and environmental needs. Major investments are concentrated in the education and health sectors, with minimal attention to ecological sustainability and marginalized communities. Weak regulatory oversight, profit-oriented governance structures, and limited stakeholder participation hinder the effective implementation of CSR. The lack of diversity in board representation, particularly the exclusion of women and underrepresented groups, further limits CSR's participatory and inclusive nature. This study underscores the need for stronger policy interventions, enhanced monitoring mechanisms, and a shift in corporate governance to transform CSR into a tool for meaningful societal impact. The findings call for further research to explore strategies for aligning profit-driven motives with sustainable and equitable development objectives. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.15594 |
| By: | Liqui-Lung, C. |
| Abstract: | Diversity is a widely pursued objective, yet current approaches often fall short or even backfire. This paper argues that treating the underrepresentation of groups such as women and ethnic minorities as separate issues oversimplifies the problem. I formally analyze how multi-dimensional social identities and social context interact to shape confidence and participation decisions. I show how “optimal social identification" allows agents to flexibly interpret social data to improve decision-making outcomes. However, different options to use this tool can create persistent disparities in task participation and outcomes. The framework enables a general equilibrium analysis of the interaction between social context, social identification, and task allocation. I show how one-dimensional policies, such as those focused solely on gender, neglect externalities and within-trait differences, and can have negative welfare effects. Instead, I advocate for multidimensional quotas with informational policies that nudge individuals to consider alternative traits and statistics. These interventions balance individual benefits with aggregate welfare concerns, reducing disparities while empowering individuals to reach their full potential. |
| Keywords: | Bounded Rationality, Social Identity, Choice Behavior, Diversity |
| JEL: | D81 D91 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2502 |
| By: | Lucía Ramirez Leira (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Octavio Bertin (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo analiza el efecto del salario mínimo sobre las primas salariales por calificación en América Latina durante el período 1997-2019. Con ese objetivo, se extiende el modelo can Ì onico del mercado laboral para incorporar el papel del salario mínimo, siguiendo la propuesta de Vogel (2023). En particular, se estiman regresiones Two Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) de las primas salariales con microdatos armonizados de encuestas de hogares de 14 países de América Latina. Los resultados sugieren que aumentos del salario m Ì ınimo están asociados a reducciones en la prima salarial entre trabajadores con y sin educación superior; pero no parecen tener un efecto significativo sobre la brecha entre trabajadores con educación media y baja. Los efectos más grandes del salario mínimo se dan en el grupo de mayor experiencia laboral. Estos resultados contribuyen a la evidencia reciente que subraya el rol de las instituciones laborales como uno de los factores detr Ì as de la reducción de la desigualdad en América Latina desde inicios de los 2000. |
| JEL: | J22 J31 J38 K31 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0345 |
| By: | Fréget, Louis; Koch Gregersen, Maria |
| Abstract: | A large economics literature studies the marginal returns of birth interventions. Still, it is almost non-existent on a fairly common intervention: medically initiating labor to prevent the health risks of a pregnancy lasting too long. Because labor induction can also have side effects, the optimal timing of birth remains debated and can depend on the specific population of mothers under study. In this paper, we assess the effects of an early labor induction policy for a fast growing share of pregnancies: high-BMI women. We provide the first piece of causal evidence on the topic by exploiting Danish guidelines which recommend routine induction at 7 days after the expected due date instead of 10-13 days after for mothers with a pre-pregnancy BMI of at least 35. Early labor induction improves immediate maternal and neonatal health, reduces universal nurse visits during the first year of life of the child, as well as maternal postpartum depression risks. |
| Keywords: | Early Health Interventions, Labor Induction, Child \& Maternal Health, Regression Discontinuity |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2501 |
| By: | Arie Kapteyn (USC - University of Southern California); Elena Stancanelli (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the growing literature on Work from Home (WfH), focusing on the responsiveness of the phenomenon to the business cycle. In particular, the Great Recession led many states to implement unprecedented and expansionary unemployment benefit measures (Extended Benefit, EB), which were often revoked when the recession resumed. EB measures differ widely in generosity and timing across states. We exploit this, for identification purposes, by linking the interview date of the respondents to the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) to the dates of implementation of EB programs, in the respondent's state of residence. ATUS provides unique cross-sectional information on WfH for a representative sample of Americans. Taking an approach inspired by a Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that recessions, as proxied by EB expansionary measures, significantly increase women's commuting. In contrast, women's remote work increases with economic recovery, as captured by EB contractionary measures. The evidence for men is less clear-cut. |
| Keywords: | Time allocation, Labor Supply, Work from Home, Great Recession |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04746449 |
| By: | Corong, Erwin; Gautam, Madhur; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | As the agricultural transformation associated with economic development proceeds, the economic fulcrum of the agrifood system moves from on-farm, or primary, production activities to activities that are increasingly non-farm sector based, such as agro-processing, food services, wholesale and retail trade, etc. Therefore, the traditional measures of farm employment and value-addition (or GDP) come to represent a smaller and smaller share of the total contribution of the agrifood system. Better quantification is important not only to appreciate the transformation within the agrifood system with economic development, but also to inform better policies and strategies to create more and better-quality jobs and accelerate structural transformation in developing economies. There are two broad approaches to measuring the size of the agrifood sector—tracking activity in agrifood sectors; and exploiting the full structure of the economy to assess the direct and indirect employment required to meet final demand for agrifood products. Both approaches are used in an analysis based on the global GTAP database and their results compared. The findings suggest that the final demand approach provides a more comprehensive assessment of the economic activities needed to meet final demand, with agrifood sector accounting for a much larger share of GDP, and the broader agrifood sector generating more and better-quality skilled jobs for both male and female workers. Another key aspect of the relationship is the resources needed to produce non-food products such as biofuels, clothing and leather products that rely on agricultural inputs. Including the resources needed to produce non-food agrifood outputs substantially increases the importance of the agrifood sector in overall activity and employment. |
| Keywords: | measurement; employment; agrifood systems; agrifood sector; trade |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:169012 |
| By: | Zola Chi-Chin Lai (Wenzao Ursuline University of Languages, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of integrating technology, specifically the Zuvio Hybrid literature circle, into English language teaching to enhance English proficiency and critical thinking abilities among lower-intermediate students in large-class settings. Motivated by the challenges of limited opportunities for independent thinking and language use in conventional large-class English courses, this research leverages "Great Expectations" as a classical reader to provide rich language input and stimulate discussions on life education themes such as family, love, and social status. Drawing on Vygotsky’s Zone of Proximal Development and scaffolding theories, the Zuvio hybrid literature circle was structured to foster peer interaction and critical engagement with the text. A total of 153 students from a university in Taiwan participated in this action research over a semester. The study employed a mixed-methods approach, utilizing pre- and post-tests of the College Student English Proficiency Test and a Critical Thinking Questionnaire to gather quantitative data, complemented by qualitative data from discussion records, reflective writings, and teacher observations. The quantitative results demonstrated significant improvements in students' English proficiency, with test scores increasing from an average of 199.78 to 218.09 (p |
| Keywords: | literature circle, critical thinking, graded readers, English proficiency |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0493 |
| By: | Eliav Danziger; Leif Danziger |
| Abstract: | We study how demand uncertainty affects risk-neutral firms. number of export destinations when uncertainty is resolved after firms choose their export destinations and output. We show that firms’ ability to allocate their output across destinations in response to destination-specific shock realizations provides even risk-neutral firms an incentive to export. Without appealing to firm-country heterogeneity or increasing marginal cost, our framework can explain why firms export to some but not all ex-ante indistinguishable destinations. We also show how, for a given firm productivity, the optimal number of export destinations depends on the correlation of shocks across the home and foreign countries. |
| Keywords: | international trade, demand uncertainty, risk-neutral firms, optimal number of export destinations |
| JEL: | F12 F61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11633 |
| By: | Stefan Bach |
| Abstract: | Union, FDP und AfD versprechen umfangreiche Steuerentlastungen, die das Staatsdefizit um bis zu vier Prozentpunkte des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) hochtreiben und vor allem Besser- und Hoch-verdienende entlasten. SPD und Grüne wollen Steuerentlastungen auf die unteren und mittleren Einkommen konzentrieren und die Steuern bei Hochverdienenden und Vermögenden erhöhen. Wachstumseffekte reduzieren die Mindereinnahmen nur zum geringeren Teil. Daher sollten Steu-erentlastungen vor allem auf Erwerbseinkommen und Unternehmen konzentriert werden. Steuer-erhöhungen für hohe Einkommen und Vermögen sollten nicht tabu sein, aber nicht übertrieben werden. Der steuerpolitische Elefant im Raum ist die Mehrwertsteuer. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:106de |
| By: | Vedanta Dhamija; Ricardo Nunes; Roshni Tara |
| Abstract: | Housing is a closely monitored and prominent sector for households. We find that households tend to overweight house price expectations when forming inflation expectations with a coefficient of 25–45 percent, significantly above the weight of house prices in the inflation index. We first use two datasets, a multitude of controls, and an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity. We then use a second strategy based on household heterogeneity. As expected, we find a significant effect of cognitive abilities and whether households moved house recently. We model this household behavior in a two-sector New Keynesian model with an overweighted and a non-overweighted sector and show that overweighted sectors are disproportionately more important for monetary policy. |
| Date: | 2025–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1069 |
| By: | Tahsina Akhter (University of Dhaka; Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada); Mashreka Mahmood (University of Toronto, Canada) |
| Abstract: | Immigrants are an important part of the global economy as more people leave their birth countries in search of better lives. In the global chain of labor and capitalist market systems, migration and precarious employment have become an inevitable outcome. However, research has shown that the experiences of migration do not always lead to positive outcomes for new immigrants in a new country. The present paper focuses on South Asian women (SAW) in Toronto to explore their experiences as immigrants in a developed country. The study employs literature-based ethnography as its method and a political ecology framework to understand the argument that precarious employment situations create an environment for SAW to become ethnic entrepreneurs, specifically food caterers, in their struggle for survival. The analysis reveals that the desire for freedom and alternative routes for survival after poor experiences in Canada’s labor market is a key factor in SAW’s development as ethnic entrepreneurs. These women weave a network of friends, family, customers, neighbors, emotions, and finances through their domestic skills of food preparation and entrepreneurship. This reveals the facts of an unequal system of aggregation in the city ecology of Toronto. Inspired by Andrew Causey’s (2016) Drawn to See: Drawing as an Ethnographic Method, this paper aims to capture the experience of a day in the life of a new immigrant family. |
| Keywords: | South Asian Immigrant Women, Toronto, Food Entrepreneurship, Political Ecology, Ethnography |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0479 |
| By: | Francisco Blasques (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Paolo Gorgi (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Siem Jan Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Noah Stegehuis (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute) |
| Abstract: | The identification of causal effects of marketing campaigns (advertisements, discounts, promotions, loyalty programs) require the collection of experimental data. Such data sets frequently suffer from limited sample sizes due to constraints (time, budget) which can result in imprecise estimators and inconclusive outcomes. At the same time, companies passively accumulate observational data which oftentimes cannot be used to measure causal effects of marketing campaigns due to endogeneity issues. In this paper we show how estimation uncertainty of causal effects can be reduced by combining the two data sources by employing a self-regulatory weighting scheme that adapts to the underlying bias and variance. We also introduce an instrument-free exogeneity test designed to assess whether the observational data is significantly endogenous and experimentation is necessary. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we implement the combined estimator for a real-life data set in which returning customers were awarded with a discount. We demonstrate how the indecisive result of the experimental data alone can be improved by our weighted estimator, and arrive to the conclusion that the loyalty discount has a notably negative effect on net sales. |
| Keywords: | endogeneity, data fusion, experimental data, observational data |
| JEL: | C51 C55 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240066 |
| By: | Francisco Blasques (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Janneke van Brummelen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Paolo Gorgi (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Siem Jan Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a nonlinear semi-parametric model that allows for the robust filtering of a common stochastic trend in a multivariate system of cointegrated time series. The observation-driven stochastic trend can be specified using flexible updating mechanisms. The model provides a general approach to obtain an outlier-robust trend-cycle decomposition in a cointegrated multivariate process. A simple two-stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of the model is proposed. In the first stage, the loadings of the common trend are estimated via ordinary least squares. In the second stage, the other parameters are estimated via Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood. We formally derive the theory for the consistency of the estimators in both stages and show that the observation-driven stochastic trend can also be consistently estimated. A simulation study illustrates how such robust methodology can enhance the filtering accuracy of the trend compared to a linear approach as considered in previous literature. The practical relevance of the method is shown by means of an application to spot prices of oil-related commodities. |
| Keywords: | consistency, cycle, non-stationary time series, two-step estimation, vector autoregression |
| JEL: | C13 C32 |
| Date: | 2024–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240062 |
| By: | Daniel Habermacher (Universidad de Los Andes); Nicolás Riquelme (Universidad de Los Andes) |
| Abstract: | We study how diversity and participatory decision-making affect organizational performance. Our model involves a manager who can acquire costly information to guide project selection, and a worker responsible for its implementation. We model diversity as heterogeneous beliefs between the organization’s members and participatory decision-making as how much the worker’s perspective influences project choice—related to notions of empowerment and inclusion. Our findings show that higher diversity enhances decision-making and implementation outcomes when the manager can access high-quality information and the worker is sufficiently empowered. When information acquisition is covert, the manager cannot signal her commitment to reducing disagreement, thus eliminating any benefits of increasing diversity. When communication is strategic, the associated credibility loss dilutes the manager’s benefits from acquiring information, but the conflict of interest decreases with information quality. Our results imply that the ‘business case for diversity’ requires complementary organizational processes that foster informational transparency and trust among members. |
| Keywords: | Diversity, Worker Empowerment, Information Acquisition, Moral Hazard, Firm Performance. |
| JEL: | D82 D83 L25 M54 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:352 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Czech Republic is evolving from a heavily manufacturing-based, export-oriented hub to a more mature and diversified economy. Non-auto manufacturing, energy, and construction, once important Czech engines of growth, have run out of steam, hampered by decelerating productivity growth, higher energy costs, and sluggish demand. The auto industry has shown resilience so far, but the required transition to electric vehicles and exposure to foreign competition are set to exert significant pressures in the coming years. Higher value-added sectors, including ICT services, are constrained by lack of skilled labor and limited access to capital, undermining their ability to compete in global markets. |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/035 |
| By: | Paraschiv Carmen Silvia (Titu Maiorescu University, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The evolution of the criminal phenomenon is a consequence of the development of society, as the latest developments in society have also determined a negative evolution of the criminal phenomenon. It no longer has territorial limits and no differences regarding the mode of operation. The commission of serious, particularly serious, and exceptionally serious crimes involves a complex process that consists of several stages. In this context, the need to implement an appropriate legal framework oriented towards protecting security and territorial integrity while ensuring fundamental human rights and freedoms, becomes evident. |
| Keywords: | criminal phenomenon, criminal activity, mode of operation, social danger, serious crimes |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0484 |
| By: | Petru Vasile Gafiuc (Al I Cuza University, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the situation of Ukrainian refugees regarding their integration into the labor market in Romania, analyzing the current statistical data and the social measures taken by the central public institutions after the start of the war in Ukraine. Given that integration is a complex process, many significant challenges are encountered both among Ukrainian citizens and at the institutional level. A series of difficulties were highlighted both in the recognition of diplomas, professional certificates, the equivalence of studies, enrollment in professional training programs, as well as in information regarding the identification of jobs, labor legislation in Romania, various aspects of employment. Moreover, the language barrier, bureaucratic procedures, and the legislative differences between the two countries are among the main impediments to the integration process. Therefore, it is necessary to implement social support measures and develop coherent policies that promote the social inclusion of Ukrainian refugees, both for their benefit and for the Romanian community through their contribution to the economy and the elimination of the labor force deficit. Solid partnerships, the promotion of good practices between institutions and organizations, as well as the involvement of all social actors in the community are necessary conditions for the effective development of support programs that offer quality social services. |
| Keywords: | integration, labor market, equivalence of studies, professional training, inclusion policies, social integration measures, work mediation |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0425 |
| By: | Marion Goussé; Nicolas Jacquemet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean-Marc Robin |
| Abstract: | Economic homogamy is a well-documented fact in demography. The preferred interpretation of this phenomenon is a preference for "entre-soi, " but the characteristics of the spouses in a household condition not only their satisfaction in being together, but also their decisions on the division of labor. In this article, we present an approach that encompasses both the process of couple formation, the sharing of resources within the household, and the complementarity of spouses in couple activities. Studying German data from 2013 to 2019, we show that wage homogamy is concentrated at the top of the distribution, that education has a very important weight in spousal complementarities, and that wages and education play a similar role in household income-sharing arrangements. |
| Abstract: | L'homogamie économique est un phénomène largement documenté, qui est souvent interprété comme résultant d'une préférence pour l'entre-soi. Pourtant, les caractéristiques des conjoints dans un ménage conditionnent non seulement leur satisfaction à être ensemble mais également leurs décisions de division du travail. Nous présentons dans cet article une approche qui englobe à la fois le processus de formation des couples, le partage des ressources au sein du ménage, et la complémentarité des conjoints dans les activités du couple. Appliquée à l'Allemagne entre 2013 et 2019, cette approche montre que l'homogamie salariale est concentrée dans le haut de la distribution, que l'éducation a un poids très important dans les complémentarités des conjoints, et que le salaire et l'éducation jouent un rôle similaire dans les modalités de partage du revenu du ménage. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04508787 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer (University of Warwick [Coventry]); Pedro Souza (QMUL - Queen Mary University of London); Oliver Vanden Eynde (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Austin Wright (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | How domestic constituents respond to signals of weakness in foreign wars remains an important question in international relations. This paper studies the impact of battlefield casualties and media coverage on public demand for war termination. To identify the effect of troop fatalities, we leverage the timing of survey collection across respondents from nine members of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. Quasi‐experimental evidence demonstrates that battlefield casualties increase the news coverage of Afghanistan and the public demand for withdrawal. Evidence from a survey experiment replicates the main results. To shed light on the media mechanism, we leverage a news pressure design and find that major sporting matches occurring around the time of battlefield casualties drive down subsequent coverage, and significantly weaken the effect of casualties on support for war termination. These results highlight the role that media play in shaping public support for foreign military interventions. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-04815986 |
| By: | Hillenbrand, Tobias (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance); Martorano, Bruno (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG); Metzger, Laura; Siegel, Melissa (Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, RS: GSBE MGSoG, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 2, RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 6, RS: FdR Research Group ITEM, RS: UNU-MERIT - MACIMIDE) |
| Abstract: | The issue of humanitarian migration has been among the most debated and divisive topics of 2023 in Germany and beyond, boosting the performance of right-radical parties, such as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Perceptions of the topic are, among other things, shaped by public discourse frames, which often either appeal to a humanitarian responsibility to provide protection or highlight potential immigration-related threats for host societies. This research aims to contribute to a better understanding of the impact of these popular frames on humanitarian concerns, threat perceptions and preferences for refugee policies of Germans and on how these frames relate to demographic characteristics of the migrants. For this purpose, we analyze original data from a large-scale online survey experiment conducted in May 2023 in Germany with 2, 012 respondents, in which different frames are presented in the form of short videos on Syrian refugees in Turkish refugee camps. We find that str essing the humanitarian plight of the refugees drives up various forms of humanitarian concerns and the support for a petition advocating for more on-site assistance, while our threat frame impacts mainly perceived cultural threat. Increasing the salience of young men among the refugees leads to an erosion of support for refugee admissions. The treatment effects differ largely between respondents from East and West Germany. Our findings shed light on the nuanced dynamics of public opinion on humanitarian migration and stress that solidarity with refugees is not merely a function of sheer numbers, but also depends on the representation of refugees in the public discourse and the media. |
| JEL: | O15 A13 D63 I31 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024007 |
| By: | Giraldo, Carlos (Latin American Reserve Fund); Giraldo, Iader (Latin American Reserve Fund); Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. (City University of New York – Lehman College); Uribe, Jorge M. (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between a country’s level of investment in research and development (R&D) and financial stability. Our findings emphasize the importance of a balanced fiscal strategy that reconciles the urgency of short-term fiscal consolidation with the pursuit of long-term economic growth and productivity. Using causal mediation analysis, we evaluate both the direct impact of R&D spending on financial stability and the indirect effects mediated through government expenditure. The results reveal that while total R&D spending, including public and private contributions, directly and significantly enhances financial stability, an increase in total public expenditure—arising from higher R&D investment while holding other components of government spending constant—counterbalances this positive effect. Thus, when both direct and indirect pathways are considered, the overall causal impact is nonsignificant. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to prioritize R&D investment while carefully managing other areas of public spending to safeguard financial stability. They also underscore the critical role of private R&D investment in financial stability. A strategic fiscal framework is essential to balance innovation-driven investments with fiscal discipline, supporting long-term economic resilience and growth. |
| Keywords: | Public expenditure; Research and development; Financial stability; Causal mediation analysis |
| JEL: | E62 G18 O38 |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:021327 |
| By: | Shota Watanabe; Ema Ogura; Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The transition to data-driven societies has heightened the importance of balancing the free flow of data with robust data protection for privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets, and national security. While different countries have introduced various data governance frameworks, including comprehensive privacy laws, differences in regulations across borders hinder data flow, increasing compliance costs and limiting business expansion, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. The concept of Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT), introduced at the G20 in 2019, aims to address this balance by promoting interoperability while respecting national sovereignty. In ASEAN, however, regulatory fragmentation further complicates cross-border data flow. Variations in data localisation policies and personal data governance amongst ASEAN Member States (AMS) create significant challenges for businesses. For instance, differences in requirements for sensitive data, data subject rights, and security measures necessitate additional compliance efforts for companies operating in multiple jurisdictions. Moreover, non-personal data regulations, such as restrictions on supply chain and research and development (R&D) data sharing or mandatory technology transfers, impede global R&D collaboration and discourage investment in certain countries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of data-related regulations in ASEAN and proposes policy recommendations for the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), set for 2025. It highlights the need for transparency, regulatory alignment, and various mechanisms to ensure smoother cross-border data flow, ultimately fostering regional digital integration. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN; data governance; Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT); ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) |
| JEL: | K2 |
| Date: | 2025–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-32 |
| By: | Labhard, Vincent; Saliba, Maria Christine |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from supply drivers at origin, in transport, or at destination. The results from the suite show that the supply shock has had wide-spread effects, and that their dynamics have been industry-, sector- and country-specific. Supply conditions have been tighter for longer in the euro area than other areas, in automobile than digital and food industries, in services relative to other sectors, and in some countries than others. The drivers at home appear to account for an increasing share of the specificity at the end of the sample, and a broader data set helps to better capture these drivers. The results also confirm that the supply indices in the suite lag supply shocks and lead variables susceptible to the effects of supply shocks. JEL Classification: C43, C82, E66, R32, R41 |
| Keywords: | euro area countries, industries, sectors, supply chains, supply conditions |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253015 |
| By: | Damioli, Giacomo; Van Roy, Vincent; Vértesy, Dániel; Vivarelli, Marco |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative innovation with the potential to drive significant economic growth and productivity gains. This study examines whether AI is initiating a technological revolution, signifying a new technological paradigm, using the perspective of evolutionary neo-Schumpeterian economics. Using a global dataset combining information on AI patenting activities and their applicants between 2000 and 2016, our analysis reveals that AI patenting has accelerated and substantially evolved in terms of its pervasiveness, with AI innovators shifting from the ICT core industries to non-ICT service industries over the investigated period. Moreover, there has been a decrease in concentration of innovation activities and a reshuffling in the innovative hierarchies, with innovative entries and young and smaller applicants driving this change. Finally, we find that AI technologies play a role in generating and accelerating further innovations (so revealing to be “enabling technologies”, a distinctive feature of GPTs). All these features have characterised the emergence of major technological paradigms in the past and suggest that AI technologies may indeed generate a paradigmatic shift. |
| JEL: | O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024018 |
| By: | Dom Kandpinijsha (Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand) |
| Abstract: | Within the global value chain, firms' ability to generate economic rents—additional profits above baseline returns—is crucial to their competitiveness, with state-allocated exogenous rents also shaping industry structure. This research examines rent dynamics in the Thai automotive industry, focusing on the interplay between policy rents and GVC rents. It traces these dynamics along the evolving path from the inception of the automotive industry in Thailand to the ongoing disruptive transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs), which accentuates the established configuration of power and interests across the industry. Findings indicate that: 1) local firms occupy subordinate roles throughout the development trajectory due to a lack of policy rents specifically targeting the effective enhancement of indigenous productive competencies; 2) when an industry has matured with established positions within the value chain, stakeholders endowed with significant rents stand to capture more benefits from policy rents, especially during transitional phases; 3) as local firms are not encouraged to proactively accumulate technological rents, they resort to seeking non-productive rents as opportunities permit. This research underscores how the interaction between state policy and foreign investment influences the architecture of the Thai automotive industry, offering insights into broader economic effects in emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | economic rents, industrial policy, global value chain (GVC), foreign direct investment (FDI), automotive industry, NEV transition |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0475 |