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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Stefano Fasani; Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni; Valeria Patella; Lorenza Rossi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of a belief distortion shock—defined as the unexpected component of household inflation expectations after accounting for professional forecasts and observable fundamentals. Using survey data, U.S. macroeconomic variables, and machine-learning methods, we identify this shock and examine its effects both within and outside the zero lower bound (ZLB), conditioning on household inflation uncertainty. The shock raises inflation, uncertainty, and unemployment in normal times. At the ZLB, the shock reduces real interest rates and becomes expansionary; however, the accompanying rise in inflation uncertainty dampens or can even reverse these effects. A New Keynesian model with belief shocks replicates these dynamics and matches the empirical patterns of inflation uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | inflation, belief distortion shock, inflation uncertainty, households expectation, machine learning, local projections, New Keynesian model, monetary policy, ZLB |
| JEL: | E31 C22 D84 C32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12209 |
| By: | Tudor Schlanger (Yale School of Management); Lena Suchanek (Bank of Canada); Jonathan Swarbrick (University of St Andrews); Joel Wagner (Bank of Canada); Yang Zhang (Bank of Canada) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of unconventional monetary policies during a pandemic, focusing on the implementation sequencing of policies when there is a social containment period. Using the Bank of Canada's main projection model (ToTEM), we compare the efficacy of a suite of extended monetary policies (EMPs), finding that the immediate implementation of forward guidance and quantitative easing, followed by credit easing when containment measures are lifted delivers the best outcome. We also quantify the fiscal response needed to offset the gap in gross domestic product created by the effective lower bound, given operational limitations in scaling up EMPs. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; pandemic; monetary policy; monetary policy sequencing; quantitative easing; credit easing |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:econdp:2501 |
| By: | L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o; D\'ora Gr\'eta Petr\'oczy |
| Abstract: | Penalty shootouts play an important role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments, especially since the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule in its club competitions. Inspired by this rule change, our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, we find no evidence for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, stronger teams, defined first by Elo ratings, do not perform better than their weaker opponents. Consequently, penalty shootouts are equivalent to a perfect lottery in top European football. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.17641 |
| By: | Colombo, Massimo G.; Füner, Lena; Guerini, Massimiliano; Hottenrott, Hanna; Souza, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the framework of Guzman and Stern (2020) to examine the evolution of entrepreneurial activity in Europe, focusing on France, Germany, and the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2023. Using harmonized national business registry data, we construct measures of both the quantity and quality of entrepreneurship across regions. In particular, we adapt the Entrepreneurial Quality Index (EQI), the Regional Entrepreneurship Cohort Potential Index (RECPI), and the Regional Entrepreneurial Acceleration Index (REAI) to capture the number of new ventures, their ex-ante growth potential, and the extent to which ecosystems translate this potential into realized outcomes. Our findings support the generalizability of this framework in the European context while revealing substantial heterogeneity across countries and regions. Major metropolitan centers such as Paris, London, and Munich combine high rates of entry with high entrepreneurial quality, but smaller knowledge- and research-intensive regions - including Cambridge, Oxford, Bonn, and Heidelberg - also emerge as important hubs. With respect to ecosystem performance, France and the UK initially exceeded expectations but later experienced steady declines, whereas Germany maintained relatively stable performance, with notable overperformance between 2012 and 2016. Moreover, we find a stronger positive correlation between entrepreneurial quantity and quality in Europe, suggesting that ecosystems capable of generating more start-ups are also more likely to produce high-quality firms. This study provides important insights for the comparative analysis of entrepreneurial ecosystems and builds a foundation for designing policies aimed at fostering high-quality, innovation-driven entrepreneurship in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial Quality, Entrepreneurial Ecosystem, High-Growth Firms, Regional Innovation |
| JEL: | G24 G32 L25 L26 M13 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:330316 |
| By: | Lee Van ("Faculty of Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Skudai, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia " Author-2-Name: Thoo Ai Chin Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Faculty of Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Skudai, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia " Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective - The transition toward sustainable development in the manufacturing industry increasingly depends on integrating circular economy practices, enabled by green supply chain collaboration. However, despite growing attention to circular economy implementation, research on it that relates to green supply chain collaboration remains limited. This study investigates circular economy practices with a particular focus on the determinants of supplier, customer, and internal collaboration within manufacturing organizations. Methodology/Technique – A structured review was conducted on articles published between 2022 and 2025 in the Web of Science database, resulting in 48 studies identified through abstract screening and full-text review. The findings reveal a clear upward trend in research interest, with publications doubling from 9 in 2022 to a peak of 18 in 2024. Findings – Notably, the most frequently examined indicators include supplier awareness, customer awareness, and cross-functional cooperation for supplier, customer, and internal collaboration, respectively. Other factors, such as environmental management certifications and solutions, also contribute to effective circular economy implementation. Based on these insights, future research is encouraged to explore collaborative dynamics in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and emerging economies, where resource constraints and institutional differences present unique challenges. Novelty – Additionally, the role of digital technologies in enhancing transparency, trust, and coordination among supply chain actors warrants further investigation. In conclusion, this study highlights the strategic importance of fostering collaboration across the supply chain to accelerate the adoption of circular economies and build more sustainable and resilient manufacturing systems. Type of Paper - Review" |
| Keywords: | customer awareness, cross-functional cooperation, digital technologies, environmental management certifications, green supply chain collaboration, supplier awareness. |
| JEL: | L25 L60 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr231 |
| By: | Ebenezer Wirba (University of Namibia); Obrien Muine Samahiya (University of Namibia); Esau Kaakunga (University of Namibia) |
| Abstract: | The transition from apartheid to a democratic government in Namibia in 1990 promises equal opportunity and an overall improvement in living standards for all Namibians. However, Namibia continues to struggle with one of the highest levels of inequality in the world, currently ranked second globally in terms of inequality. Using the 1993/94, 2003/04, 2009/10, and 2015/16 waves of the Namibia Income and Expenditure Surveys, this paper examines changes in consumption inequality by deciphering the role of education in terms of both the endowment effect and the price effect over the period 1993-2016. To achieve this objective, the study employs the FFL decomposition with reweighting to analyze changes in the Gini coefficient during this period. Our findings suggest that, over the period 1993-2016, Gini consumption inequality decreases by 0.17 points. The endowment effects of secondary and tertiary education significantly reduce inequality, while the price effects of secondary and tertiary education are associated with increased inequality. Although the price effect of primary education contributes to lowering inequality, the rising returns to higher education levels exacerbate income disparities. |
| Keywords: | Consumption inequality, Education, Endowment effect, Price effect, FFL decomposition, Namibia |
| JEL: | D63 D31 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2025-688 |
| By: | Melosi, Leonardo (European University Institute and CEPR); Morita, Hiroshi (Tokyo Institute of Technology); Rogantini Picco, Anna (European Central Bank and CEPR); Zanetti, Francesco (University of Oxford and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and are more noticeable during periods of high economic uncertainty. Analysis of a new dataset of daily stock prices and fiscal news in Japan supports these predictions. We introduce a method to identify fiscal news with different degrees of signaling effects and find that such effects weaken or, in extreme cases, even completely undermine the stabilizing impact of the announcements. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; macroeconomic stabilization; uncertainty; imperfect information |
| JEL: | D83 E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0455 |
| By: | Baris K. Yörük |
| Abstract: | How does diversity affect charitable giving? On the one hand, diversity can lead to increased charitable giving, as individuals may feel more connected to and invested in their community when they see the diversity of needs and perspectives within it. On the other hand, diversity can also create challenges for charitable giving, as individuals may have different priorities, beliefs, and cultural norms that affect their willingness to give to certain causes and organizations. Using data from 2010-2020 county-level income tax returns linked to the U.S. Census population estimates, I find a negative impact of local ethnic diversity on charitable giving. In particular, I document that a one percentage point increase in the local ethnic fragmentation index is associated with up to a 2.9 percent decrease in the fraction of tax returns with charitable contributions and a 2 percent decrease in charitable contributions as a fraction of adjusted gross income. |
| Keywords: | charitable giving, local ethnic diversity, fundraising |
| JEL: | J10 J18 H30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12223 |
| By: | Francesco Molica; Francesco Cappellano; Teemu Makkonen |
| Abstract: | Since a few years, the international economic system has been experiencing growing fragmentation and uncertainty. However, research on Regional Innovation Systems (RIS) has yet to comprehensively engage with this phenomenon, despite its (spatial) significance. The paper contributes to addressing this gap, in particular by exploring the potential implications for RIS arising from the decline and disruptions of international knowledge flows associated with economic de-globalization. The study seeks to define a theoretical approach grounded in evolutionary geography to assess this trend. It applies such perspective to three types of RIS—metropolitan, old industrial, and peripheral—across five analytical dimensions that capture the structural and relational factors shaping RIS exposure and resilience to de-globalization. The discussion highlights that, in the face of knowledge and technological disruptions arising from international instability, metropolitan RIS may leverage their diversified knowledge bases, dense institutional frameworks, and strong global connectivity to successfully reconfigure external linkages; old industrial RIS may follow mixed trajectories, with the risk of deepening economic and policy lock-ins; while peripheral RIS—due to their reliance on external knowledge sources and limited endogenous innovation capacity—emerge as the most vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | De-globalization; Knowledge flows; Regional innovation system; Resilience |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/395461 |
| By: | Luisa Corrado; Stefano Grassi; Aldo Paolillo |
| Abstract: | Recent studies suggest that space activities generate significant economic benefits. This paper attempts to quantify these effects by modeling both business cycle and long–run effects driven by space sector activities. We develop a model in which technologies are shaped by both a dedicated R&D sector and spillovers from space†sector innovations. Using U.S. data from the 1960s to the present day, we analyze patent grants to distinguish between space and core sector technologies. By leveraging the network of patent citations, we further examine the evolving dependence between space and core technologies over time. Our findings highlight the positive impact of the aerospace sector on technological innovation and economic growth, particularly during the 1960s and 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Aerospace, Space Economy, Growth |
| JEL: | A1 C5 E00 O10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:573 |
| By: | Kuhlemann, Jana (Mannheim Centre for European Social Research (MZES), University of Mannheim); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This study investigates the role of engaging in physical leisure activities in facilitating refugees’ structural integration through enhancing their social capital, destination-language proficiency, and health. The physical fitness gained from such activities can also be crucial for securing physically demanding jobs. As employment significantly influences refugees’ social integration, this research specifically examines the impact of the intensity and regularity of sports engagement on employment outcomes among refugees from the 2015/16 influx in Germany. Utilizing longitudinal data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees, findings reveal that regular and more intensive engagement in physical leisure activities increases refugees’ chances of securing gainful employment and obtaining physically demanding jobs in the subsequent year. However, sports involvement does not correlate with higher occupational prestige, potentially locking them into lower-status jobs. Additionally, time spent in other types of leisure activities shows a slightly negative association with labor market outcomes, underscoring the unique benefits of sports. This points to the dual-edged nature of sports as an integration tool – beneficial in fostering initial labor market entry but possibly limiting in terms of career advancement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | I12 J15 J24 J61 Z13 Z20 |
| Date: | 2025–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202515 |
| By: | Ulysse Soulat (NUDD - Usages du Numérique pour le Développement Durable - ULR - La Rochelle Université, ULR - La Rochelle Université); Sarah Machat (NUDD - Usages du Numérique pour le Développement Durable - ULR - La Rochelle Université, ULR - La Rochelle Université); Jeanne Lallement (NUDD - Usages du Numérique pour le Développement Durable - ULR - La Rochelle Université, ULR - La Rochelle Université); Florence de Ferran (NUDD - Usages du Numérique pour le Développement Durable - ULR - La Rochelle Université, ULR - La Rochelle Université) |
| Abstract: | The social acceptability of autonomous shuttles evokes a range of emotions among consumers, notably ambivalent emotions oscillating between technological interest and fear of the device. This study analyzes these anticipated emotions and the coping strategies consumers use to manage these conflicting feelings. Relying on a qualitative approach based on 18 semi-structured interviews with potential users of on-demand shuttle services, this research identifies consumers' anticipated emotions. The findings categorize these emotions and link them to corresponding coping strategies. This study contributes to a better understanding of emotions in a new urban mobility context and offers recommendations to improve the integration of autonomous shuttles into society. |
| Abstract: | Quelle acceptabilité sociale des navettes autonomes ? La réponse ambivalente des consommateurs Résumé : L'acceptabilité sociale des navettes autonomes soulève des émotions chez les consommateurs, notamment des émotions ambivalentes oscillant entre intérêt technologique et peur du dispositif. Ce travail propose une analyse de ces émotions anticipées et des stratégies de coping mobilisées par les consommateurs pour gérer ces émotions conflictuelles. S'appuyant sur une approche qualitative basée sur 18 entretiens semi-directifs auprès d'usagers potentiels de navettes de transport à la demande, cette recherche identifie les émotions anticipées des consommateurs. Les résultats permettent de catégoriser les émotions et de les mettre en parallèle avec les stratégies de coping. Cette étude contribue à une meilleure compréhension des émotions dans un nouveau contexte de mobilité urbaine et propose des recommandations pour améliorer l'intégration de navettes autonomes dans la société. |
| Keywords: | émotions anticipées, émotions ambivalentes, stratégies de coping, navettes autonomes, acceptabilité sociale |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05319214 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Amarachi O. Ogbonna (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Mariette C. N. Mete (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The present research extends the extant literature by investigating the hypothesis on whether marriage can be a substitute for financial inclusion in energy poverty reduction in Ghana. Pooled data and two stage least squares techniques are used in the estimation process and the validity of the tested hypothesis (i.e., that marriage is a substitute for financial inclusion in energy poverty mitigation) is based on two main criteria: (i) a positive interactive effect relative to the negative unconditional effect of marriage; (ii) a marriage net effect lower in magnitude compared to the unconditional effect of marriage and (iii) an insignificant interactive effect when both unconditional effects are negative. The investigated hypothesis is not valid in the full sample, urban sub-sample and female sub-sample while it is valid in the rural and male sub-samples. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty; financial inclusion; consumption poverty; education; household income |
| JEL: | D03 D12 D14 I32 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/006 |
| By: | Daniel Jaar; Joao Ritto |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and a cash-intensive informal sector that replicates two empirical patterns: the negative relationship between informality and firm productivity, and the declining share of informal consumption with household wealth. The non-homotheticity of informal consumption implies that tax incidence is heterogenous: poor households pay less consumption taxes but are more exposed to inflation. We use the model to study the distributional effects of financing government revenue through seigniorage versus consumption taxes. Calibrated to Peru – where informality accounts for around half of economic activity – the model shows that informal purchases provide significant savings through lower prices, particularly for poor households, who save up to 11% compared to purchasing the same bundle formally. The model also uncovers substantial variation in preferences over revenue-neutral combinations of inflation and consumption taxes: households in the top expenditure decile would like inflation to be as high as 12%, while those in the bottom favor inflation below 5%. This disagreement grows with the size of the informal sector. |
| Keywords: | Informality; Inflation; Public Finance; Inequality |
| JEL: | E62 H22 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-805 |
| By: | Daniel Ofori-Sasu (Accra, Ghana); Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor (Accra, Ghana); Dennis Nsafoah (New York, USA); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of regulatory independence of the central bank in shaping the impact of electoral cycles on bank lending behaviour in Africa. It employs the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) Two-Step estimator for a panel dataset of 54 African countries over the period, 2004-2022. The study found that banks lend substantially higher during election years, and reduce lending patterns thereafter. The study shows that countries that enforce monetary policy autonomy of the central bank induce a negative impact on bank lending behaviour while those that apply strong macro-prudential independent action and central bank independence reduce lending in the long term. The study provides evidence to support that regulatory independence of the central bank dampens the positive effect of elections on bank lending around election years while they amplify the reductive effects on bank lending after election periods. There is a wake-up call for countries with weak independent central bank regulatory policy to strengthen their independent regulatory policy frameworks and political institutions. This will enable them better strategize to yield a desirable outcome of bank lending to the real economy during election years. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy; Political Credit Cycles, Electoral Cycle; Central Bank Regulatory Independence; Bank lending Behaviour |
| JEL: | D7 D72 G2 G3 E3 E5 E61 G21 L10 L51 M21 P16 P26 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/020 |
| By: | ARAWATARI, Ryo; TAKAHASHI, Yuta; TAKAYAMA, Naoki |
| Abstract: | After the boom-bust cycle, Japan experienced a marked slowdown in economic growth since 1990. Three features stand out: (1) a persistent decline in total factor productivity growth, (2) a sharp and lasting fall in private investment, and (3) an extended period of exceptionally low interest rates. This study develops a macro-finance model designed to account for these interconnected phenomena. The framework emphasizes the role of shifting expectations, risk-premium, and the interaction between financial conditions and real activity. By grounding the analysis in the Japanese experience, the model aims to explain not only the mechanisms behind the bubble’s rise and fall but also the persistence of the stagnation that followed. The broader goal is to clarify how financial booms and busts can leave long-lived imprints on growth trajectories, offering lessons for economies facing similar vulnerabilities today. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:773 |
| By: | Kuntal Som; Thirumulanathan D; Joydeep Dutta |
| Abstract: | Bilevel programming is one of the very active areas of research with many real-life applications in economics and engineering. Bilevel problems are hierarchical problems consisting of lower-level and upper-level problems, respectively. The leader or the decision-maker for the upper-level problem decides first, and then the follower or the lower-level decision-maker chooses his/her strategy. In the case of multiple lower-level solutions, the bilevel problems are not well defined, and there are many ways to handle such a situation. One standard way is to put restrictions on the lower level problems (like strict convexity) so that nonuniqueness does not arise. However, those restrictions are not viable in many situations. Therefore, there are two standard formulations, called pessimistic formulations and optimistic formulations of the upper-level problem. A set-valued formulation has been proposed and has been studied in the literature. However, the study is limited to the continuous set-up with the assumption of value attainment, and the general case has not been considered. In this paper, we focus on the general case and study the connection among various notions of solution. Our main findings suggest that the set-valued formulation may not hold any bigger advantage than the existing optimistic and pessimistic formulation. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.20631 |
| By: | Raphaela Nina Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wages for the Lake Victoria Basin in rural Uganda. The update for 2025 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in September 2019 (Khan and Buyinza, 2019). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Uganda |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250424 |
| By: | Audrey Leininger (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Antony Kuhn (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine) |
| Abstract: | La notion de leadership a fait l'objet, depuis plusieurs décennies, de nombreuses recherches dans le contexte particulier des établissements scolaires. Ces recherches, principalement d'origine anglo-saxonne, ont toutefois suscité un intérêt limité auprès des chercheurs français en sciences de gestion. Pourtant, la question des effets du leadership scolaire est un sujet de débats croissant, dans le champ de l'éducation en France. Cet article vise ainsi à apporter un éclairage sur le concept de leadership scolaire, sur sa mesure et sur ses caractéristiques. Dans cette perspective, une enquête par questionnaire a été menée auprès de 168 chefs d'établissement d'une même académie. Les résultats de cette enquête permettent de proposer une définition du leadership scolaire, une typologie de leaders scolaires ainsi qu'une échelle de mesure du leadership scolaire, dans le contexte français. |
| Keywords: | Mesure Leadership, Education, Definition, Leadership, Typology, Typologie, Définition, Éducation |
| Date: | 2025–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05329143 |
| By: | Lydia J. Gabric; Kenneth Q. Zhou |
| Abstract: | Natural hedging allows life insurers to manage longevity risk internally by offsetting the opposite exposures of life insurance and annuity liabilities. Although many studies have proposed natural hedging strategies under different settings, calibration methods, and mortality models, a unified framework for constructing and evaluating such hedges remains undeveloped. While graphical risk assessment has been explored for index-based longevity hedges, no comparable metric exists for natural hedging. This paper proposes a structured natural hedging framework paired with a graphical risk metric for hedge evaluation. The framework integrates valuation, calibration, and evaluation, while the graphical metric provides intuitive insights into residual dependencies and hedge performance. Applied to multiple hedging scenarios, the proposed methods demonstrate flexibility, interpretability, and practical value for longevity risk management. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.18721 |
| By: | Beber, Bernd; Frohnweiler, Sarah; Lakemann, Tabea; Anti Partey, Peter; Schnars, Regina; Lay, Jann |
| Abstract: | Despite substantial investment in skills training worldwide, evidence for the effectiveness of such interventions in sub-Saharan Africa is still relatively sparse. We contribute to this literature by implementing a multisite randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the Professionalization of Artisans (ProfArts) program in Ghana, a state-of-the art training program designed to improve employment quality through skilled trades training. The research design enables the assessment of impacts on labor market outcomes across multiple sites (four different urban labor markets, six providers). We find limited overall impacts, with variation across cities, including notable employment and income effects in Tamale in the less developed north and some benefits in job quality in the more developed central city of Kumasi. We present evidence that these differences are not well explained by variation in program implementation, hinting at the importance of local labor market conditions. We also document how Bayesian implementers could learn from this evaluation and how real-world stakeholders actually learn. We collect data on implementers' expectations regarding the program's effectiveness, both before and after the presentation of RCT results. Stakeholders' beliefs about the program's impact adjust in response to empirical findings, but more optimistically than Bayesian learning would suggest. |
| Abstract: | Trotz erheblicher Investitionen in Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen ist die Evidenz zur Wirksamkeit solcher Interventionen in Subsahara-Afrika nach wie vor vergleichsweise spärlich. Wir tragen zu dieser Literatur bei, indem wir ein randomisiert kontrolliertes Experiment (RCT) an mehreren Standorten zum Programm "Professionalization of Artisans" (ProfArts) in Ghana durchführen - einem State-of-the-Art-Qualifizierungsprogramm, das durch Ausbildung in qualifizierten Handwerksberufen die Qualität der Beschäftigung verbessern soll. Das Forschungsdesign ermöglicht die Bewertung der Effekte auf Arbeitsmarktergebnisse über mehrere Standorte hinweg (vier verschiedene städtische Arbeitsmärkte, sechs Träger). Insgesamt finden wir begrenzte Wirkungen, die jedoch zwischen den Städten variieren, darunter Beschäftigungs- und Einkommenseffekte in Tamale im weniger entwickelten Norden sowie einige Verbesserungen der Arbeitsqualität in der stärker entwickelten zentralen Stadt Kumasi. Wir zeigen, dass sich diese Unterschiede nicht gut durch Variationen in der Programmdurchführung erklären lassen, was auf die Bedeutung lokaler Arbeitsmarktbedingungen hindeutet. Zudem dokumentieren wir, wie bayesianisch lernende Durchführende aus dieser Evaluation lernen könnten und wie reale Akteure tatsächlich lernen. Wir erheben Daten zu den Erwartungen der Durchführenden hinsichtlich der Programmwirksamkeit, sowohl vor als auch nach der Präsentation der RCT-Ergebnisse. Die Erwartungen der Akteure über die Wirkungen des Programms passen sich zwar an die empirischen Befunde an, bleiben jedoch optimistischer, als es bayesianisches Lernen nahelegen würde. |
| Keywords: | Skills trainings, labor market interventions, randomized controlled trials |
| JEL: | J24 O12 D84 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:330179 |
| By: | Gizem Koşar; Davide Melcangi; Laura Pilossoph; David G. Wiczer |
| Abstract: | Using detailed microdata, we document that households often use “stimulus” checks to pay down debt, especially those with low net wealth-to-income ratios. To rationalize these patterns, we introduce an empirically plausible borrowing price schedule into an otherwise standard incomplete markets model. Because interest rates rise with debt, borrowers have increasingly larger incentives to use an additional dollar to reduce debt service payments rather than consume. Using our calibrated model, we then study whether and how this marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD) alters the aggregate implications of fiscal transfers. We uncover a trade-off between stimulus and insurance, as high–debt individuals gain considerably from transfers, but consume relatively little immediately. This mechanism lowers the immediate stimulus effect of fiscal transfers, but sustains aggregate consumption for longer. |
| JEL: | E21 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34399 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Jean R. F. K. Bouanza (Brazzaville, Congo); Armand F. Akpa (Abomey-Calavi, Benin) |
| Abstract: | The present research is focused on how lifelong gender inclusive education moderates the effect of governance on structural transformation. It is based on a sample of forty-one countries in Africa for the period 2004 to 2021 and the adopted empirical strategy is the generalized method of moments (GMM). The estimation exercise is tailored such that lifelong gender inclusive education in interacted with political (i.e., political stability/no violence and voice & accountability), economic (i.e., government effectiveness and regulatory quality) and institutional (i.e., corruption-control and the rule of law) governance dynamics in order to affect manufacturing value added. Lifelong gender inclusive education is understood as the combined knowledge acquired in terms of gender parity education in primary, secondary and tertiary schools. The following findings are established. (i) Gender inclusive lifelong learning does not effectively moderate political governance and associated components (i.e., political stability/no violence and voice & accountability) as well as institutional governance and associated components (i.e., corruption-control and the rule of law) in order to improve manufacturing value added. (ii) Gender inclusive lifelong learning effectively moderates economic governance and associated dimensions (i.e., government effectiveness and regulatory quality) to improve manufacturing value added. However, only the thresholds corresponding to government effectiveness and economic governance are within policy range. Robustness of the findings is broadly confirmed, especially within the remits of additional elements in the conditioning information set and general governance. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Governance, gender inclusion, lifelong learning, structural transformation |
| JEL: | E60 F40 F59 D60 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/002 |
| By: | Edward Lane |
| Abstract: | he Social Security "full retirement age" (FRA) is the age at which retirement income benefits are available without reduction for early commencement. Presently, that age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later. This paper is about the unfair and unnecessary threat to reduce Social Security retirement income benefits (Romig 2023) by extending the full benefit retirement age--a change that will affect upwards of 80 percent of future retirees (Ross 2024), most of whom can ill-afford the reduction (Romig 2023). For those who don't follow these issues closely, the Social Security retirement, or Old-Age & Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to become insolvent in 2033. Without Congressional action to preserve scheduled benefits, payable benefits would then be reduced by 20-25 percent. While both President Trump (Bolton 2024) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (Murray et al. 2025) have promised not to cut Social Security at a time when there is intense political pressure to reduce the federal budget deficit (Duehren 2025), it is unclear what will happen once Congress settles on a fiscal 2026 budget and the president signs off. If benefits are not reduced, the trust fund insolvency issue must still be resolved. To better understand why extending Social Security's FRA would be both unnecessary and unfair, this paper briefly explores Social Security's history, how Social Security payroll taxes subsidize other government expenditures, and how attempts are being made to roll back Social Security retirement benefit eligibility while other publicly funded retirement programs covering government employees have far more generous retirement eligibility provisions. The paper will conclude with recommendations to avoid program insolvency while preserving the FRA. |
| Keywords: | Social Security; FICA; Taxes; Trust Funds; OASI; OASDI; Medicare; Deficit; Inflation; Welfare; Treasury; Old-age; Intragovernmental and Federal debt; Retirement age |
| JEL: | H00 H50 H51 H53 H55 H61 H62 H63 H21 H22 H23 H24 H31 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1080 |
| By: | Mario Ghossoub; Qinghua Ren; Ruodu Wang |
| Abstract: | We study Pareto-optimal risk sharing in economies with heterogeneous attitudes toward risk, where agents' preferences are modeled by distortion risk measures. Building on comonotonic and counter-monotonic improvement results, we show that agents with similar attitudes optimally share risks comonotonically (risk-averse) or counter-monotonically (risk-seeking). We show how the general $n$-agent problem can be reduced to a two-agent formulation between representative risk-averse and risk-seeking agents, characterized by the infimal convolution of their distortion risk measures. Within this two-agent framework, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal allocations, and we identify when the infimal convolution yields an unbounded value. When existence fails, we analyze the problem under nonnegative allocation constraints, and we characterize optima explicitly, under piecewise-linear distortion functions and Bernoulli-type risks. Our findings suggest that the optimal allocation structure is governed by the relative strength of risk aversion versus risk seeking behavior, as intuition would suggest. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.18236 |
| By: | Xenia Matschke; Juan Rene Rojas Rodriguez |
| Abstract: | The inclusion of domestic (intra-national) trade when estimating structural gravity models is an important topic and has been shown to solve empirical puzzles such as the missing globalization puzzle (Yotov, 2022). Despite efforts to construct intra-national trade data, its measurement still remains a challenge, in particular for historical trade data. Campos et al. (2021a) recently claimed that the exact definition of domestic trade flows (gross vs. net production) is not important for the estimation of free trade agreement (FTA) effects in a gravity framework: a surprising finding, since the size differences between these measures are large, and their correlation of about 80%, while high, is not perfect. In a simulation framework, we revisit the question of the (non)-importance of whether to include and how to measure domestic trade and find some support for the conclusion of Campos et al. (2021a) concerning the estimation of trade agreement or tariff effects. However, with regard to the point estimates, marked differences arise depending on how domestic trade flows are calculated: the GDP-based domestic trade flows clearly distort the coefficient estimates. Interestingly, using only inter- national trade flows yields results that are unbiased and as precisely estimated as those obtained when correctly measured (GO-based) domestic trade flows are included. Depending on what effects researchers are interested in, the basic gravity model without inclusion of domestic trade flows may thus be the preferred alternative after all. |
| Keywords: | Intra-national Trade, Gravity Model |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202510 |
| By: | Kristina Butaeva (University of Chicago); Albert Park (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we conduct the first systematic empirical analysis of income inequality in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the provincial level. Using data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and a semiparametric distribution model, we estimate Gini indices for a set of provincial-level administrative units in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. We find that differences in the “prices” and “quantities” of human capital are important factors in explaining differences in inequality between these provincial areas. Our findings suggest that poor areas are highly disadvantaged compared with rich ones, as they face higher income and educational inequality, as well as higher returns to education, while at the same time exhibiting lower average educational attainment. We conclude that filling existing interprovincial human capital gaps and accelerating labor market integration through appropriate government policies could reduce spatial disparities in inequality levels across regions and overall income inequality in the PRC. |
| Keywords: | income inequality;provinces;People’s Republic of China;human capital |
| JEL: | D31 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021691 |
| By: | Francesco Amodio (McGill University, BREAD, and CEPR); Elia Benveniste (European Bank for Reconstruction and Developmet); Mario F. Carillo (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IPEG); Marc Riudavets-Barcons (University of Helsinki & HGSE) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that granting migrants legal status reduces labor exploitation. We study Spain's 2005 large-scale regularization program, which granted legal status to 600, 000 undocumented migrants. We proxy labor exploitation with hospitalizations for heat-related illnesses among working-age individuals, capturing exposure to hazardous working conditions in outdoor occupations. We implement a triple-difference design that exploits cross-provincial variation in pre-reform shares of undocumented migrants and temporal variation in extreme temperatures. Our results show that the incidence of heat-related hospitalizations during heatwaves declined significantly in provinces with greater exposure to the amnesty. Specifically, an additional day above 35°C became 3.3 percentage points less likely to result in heat-related hospitalization in highly exposed provinces, representing a 9.4% reduction relative to the pre-reform mean. Our findings demonstrate that migrant regularization is a powerful policy for improving worker well-being and reducing their vulnerability to extreme climatic events. |
| Keywords: | amnesty programs, working conditions, exploitation, extreme heat |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2514 |
| By: | Marco Rossi (Università Sapienza di Roma - Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici) |
| Abstract: | La rassegna della letteratura economica suggerisce una duplice definizione delle scommesse sportive: attività finanziaria e/o bene di consumo. Infatti, l’ipotesi che l’obiettivo delle scommesse sportive sia unicamente il profitto contrasta con l’osservazione che il loro rendimento atteso è negativo. La partecipazione a lotterie da parte di agenti razionali è giustificabile allentando (almeno localmente) l’ipotesi della loro avversione al rischio. Questa propensione al rischio può derivare dall’attribuire al gioco d’azzardo non solo una finalità finanziaria, ma anche un valore edonistico. L’ipotesi che scommettere sia divertente è sostenuta da varie osservazioni e studi empirici. In particolare, la domanda di scommesse sportive pare dipendere dalle stesse variabili che determinano la domanda di intrattenimento sportivo, suggerendo l’ipotesi di una complementarità tra scommesse e visione (dal vivo o televisiva) delle competizioni sportive. |
| Keywords: | scommesse sportive, efficienza del mercato, consumo |
| JEL: | C91 L83 G11 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00072 |
| By: | Wild, Frank; Pieper, Jonas |
| Abstract: | Eine pauschale Begrenzung der Eigenanteile in der stationären Pflege - etwa durch einen "Pflegekosten-Deckel" - ist aus finanzwissenschaftlicher Sicht teuer, ineffizient und ungerecht. Eine solche Leistung erzeugt Mitnahmeeffekte bei Personen, die diese Leistungen selbst tragen können. Sie wirkt wie ein umlagefinanziertes Erbenschutzprogramm, belastet die Solidargemeinschaft und schwächt die Eigenverantwortung. Studien zeigen: Insgesamt sind 71, 9 Prozent der Rentnerhaushalte in der Lage, bis zu fünf Jahre stationäre Pflege vollständig aus eigenem Einkommen und Vermögen zu finanzieren. Rentnerinnen und Rentner verfügen über mehr Vermögen als jüngere Jahrgänge. Der Blick auf das reine Renteneinkommen springt zu kurz, im Durchschnitt stammen nur 53 Prozent aller den Rentnerhaushalten zufließenden Einkommen aus der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung. Im Durchschnitt verfügen Rentnerhaushalte über ein monatliches Haushaltsnettoeinkommen von 3.759 Euro (Paare), 2.213 Euro (alleinstehende Männer) bzw. 1.858 Euro (alleinstehende Frauen). Ein weiteres Indiz für die gute Vermögenslage: Die durchschnittliche Höhe von Erbschaften beläuft sich auf etwas mehr als 85.000 Euro pro Person. Ein Pflegekosten-Deckel von 1.000 Euro pro Monat würde die Ausgaben der sozialen Pflegeversicherung im Einführungsjahr um rund 9, 2 Milliarden Euro erhöhen. Würden die einrichtungseinheitlichen Eigenanteile komplett von der Pflegeversicherung übernommen, würde dies jährliche Mehrausgaben von mindestens 16, 3 Milliarden Euro bedeuten, bei steigender Tendenz in den Folgejahren. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wipkan:330320 |
| By: | Zerres, Christopher; Breyer-Mayländer, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Die zunehmende Globalisierung, Digitalisierung und Marktkomplexität erfordern von Unternehmen ein hohes Maß an analytischer Kompetenz, um fundierte Entscheidungen zu treffen und ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zu sichern. Die ABC-Analyse sowie die Wertketten-Analyse haben sich in diesem Kontext als vielfach bewährte Verfahren etabliert. Beide Ansätze ermöglichen es, komplexe Problemstellungen zu durchdringen, Ressourcen zielgerichtet einzusetzen und Wettbewerbsvorteile langfristig zu sichern. Die ABC-Analyse beruht auf dem Prinzip der Konzentration auf wesentliche Einflussgrößen, indem sie verdeutlicht, dass ein vergleichsweise geringer Anteil von Objekten oder Kundengruppen einen überproportional hohen Beitrag zum Gesamtergebnis leistet. Sie bietet somit eine Grundlage für effiziente Priorisierungs- und Steuerungsentscheidungen und kann in unterschiedlichen betrieblichen Kontexten angewendet werden. Die Wertketten-Analyse geht über die rein quantitative Betrachtung hinaus, indem sie den Fokus auf die Gesamtheit der wertschöpfenden Aktivitäten eines Unternehmens legt. Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei die Frage, wie durch die Analyse, Gestaltung und Optimierung dieser Aktivitäten strategische Wettbewerbsvorteile entstehen können. Sie bietet einen differenzierten Zugang zur Identifikation von Kosten- und Differenzierungspotenzialen und trägt dazu bei, unternehmensinterne Strukturen ebenso wie externe Vergleichsmaßstäbe systematisch zu erfassen. |
| Keywords: | ABC-Analyse |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ouwpmm:330311 |
| By: | Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Grupo Estudios del Trabajo |
| Abstract: | En esta nueva edición del Informe Sociolaboral del Partido de General Pueyrredon se analiza el impacto de las políticas económicas sobre mercado laboral local y nacional hasta el segundo trimestre de 2025. En el plano macroeconómico, la economía argentina mostró signos de crecimiento en relación al mismo período del año anterior. No obstante, si se efectúa la comparación con el segundo trimestre de 2023, es posible apreciar que la recuperación actual no llegó a revertir plenamente el impacto de la crisis acontecida en 2024. En lo que respecta al sector externo, en el primer semestre del corriente año se registró un déficit de comercio exterior que contrasta marcadamente con el superávit alcanzado el año pasado. Asimismo, tras la flexibilización de la compra de divisas para personas humanas en el mes de abril, se inició una ingente fuga de capitales que profundizó las tensiones cambiarias que ya se observaban en los primeros meses del año. Por su parte, la inflación parece haber llegado a un piso consolidado cercano al 2% mensual y tendió a acelerarse levemente en el mes de septiembre. De esta manera, la sociedad argentina llega a las elecciones de medio término en el marco de una notoria incertidumbre en torno a la sustentabilidad del actual esquema macroeconómico. En el escenario laboral se presentan resultados similares a nivel nacional y local. Para el total aglomerados, en términos interanuales disminuyen las tasas de actividad (llega a 48, 1%) y la de empleo (44, 5%), mientras que las tasas de desocupación (7, 6%) y subocupación (11, 6%) se mantuvieron casi constantes. Asimismo, se produjo una disminución de la cantidad de trabajo registrado (-378.328 trabajadores/as). En Mar del Plata se presentó una disminución del número de ocupados (-4.000) y se mantuvo la cantidad de desocupados (-5.000), por ende, disminuyó la Población Económicamente Activa (-4.000). Esto impacta en una disminución de la tasa de actividad (se ubicó en el 48, 2%) y la tasa de empleo (45, 1%). Por su parte, aumentó la tasa de subocupación (12, 7%) y la presión general en el mercado de trabajo (20, 5%). Por último, los datos provenientes de la Encuesta de Indicadores Laborales (EIL) dan cuenta de que persiste la disminución de trabajadores en empresas de 5 o más empleados, siendo la rama construcción la más perjudicada. Asimismo, se destaca el aumento de los despidos sin causa. |
| Keywords: | Análisis Económico; Política Económica; Macroeconomía; Mercado de Trabajo; Empleo; Mar del Plata; Batán; Partido de General Pueyrredon; |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4396 |
| By: | Bolinth, Lisa |
| Abstract: | The American Privacy Rights Act gives Americans fundamental, enforceable data privacy rights, puts people in control of their own data and eliminatesthe patchwork of state laws, heißt es in einer Pressemitteilung des Ausschusses für Energie und Handel der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika im April 2024. Darin wird ein als historisch erachteter neuer Entwurf für ein umfassendes USBundesdatenschutzgesetz angekündigt. Das Besondere daran: Ein solch umfassendes Gesetz wäre zwischen vielen einzelstaatlichen und sektoralen Datenschutzgesetzen das erste seiner Art, wenn auch keinesfalls der erste Versuch ein solches Gesetz zu etablieren. Wie dieser Entwurf in der Landschaft des US-amerikanischen Datenschutzrechtes einzuordnen und wie er außerdem im Vergleich zur EU-DatenschutzGrundverordnung (DSGVO) ausgestaltet ist, soll in dieser Studienarbeit untersucht werden. |
| Keywords: | Online-Handel, Datensicherheit, Datenschutz, Vergleich, USA, EU-Staaten |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:pfobei:330327 |
| By: | Alban Etienne; Jean-Jacques Ohana; Eric Benhamou; B\'eatrice Guez; Ethan Setrouk; Thomas Jacquot |
| Abstract: | Recent work has emphasized the diversification benefits of combining trend signals across multiple horizons, with the medium-term window-typically six months to one year-long viewed as the "sweet spot" of trend-following. This paper revisits this conventional view by reallocating exposure dynamically across horizons using a Bayesian optimization framework designed to learn the optimal weights assigned to each trend horizon at the asset level. The common practice of equal weighting implicitly assumes that all assets benefit equally from all horizons; we show that this assumption is both theoretically and empirically suboptimal. We first optimize the horizon-level weights at the asset level to maximize the informativeness of trend signals before applying Bayesian graphical models-with sparsity and turnover control-to allocate dynamically across assets. The key finding is that the medium-term band contributes little incremental performance or diversification once short- and long-term components are included. Removing the 125-day layer improves Sharpe ratios and drawdown efficiency while maintaining benchmark correlation. We then rationalize this outcome through a minimum-variance formulation, showing that the medium-term horizon largely overlaps with its neighboring horizons. The resulting "barbell" structure-combining short- and long-term trends-captures most of the performance while reducing model complexity. This result challenges the common belief that more horizons always improve diversification and suggests that some forms of time-scale diversification may conceal unnecessary redundancy in trend premia. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.23150 |