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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | De Grauwe, Paul; Foresti, Pasquale |
| Abstract: | We study the role of agents’ limited cognitive capabilities, combined with fiscal and monetary policies, in the generation of a deflationary trap. In order to do so, we employ a heterogeneous expectations New Keynesian model in which the agents’ forecasts are based on simple heuristics. Thanks to a learning mechanism, the model is able to generate endogenous changes in agents’ beliefs that we prove to have a crucial role in the characterization of a deflationary trap. We show that the probability of hitting the zero lower bound on the interest rate, and potentially entering a deflationary trap, is not only affected by the inflation target set by the central bank. This probability is also influenced by the governments’ focus on public debt stabilization and by the agents’ memory and willingness to learn. We also show that the impact of these factors is very significant for inflation targets in the range 0–3%, while an inflation target of 4% isolates the system from the zero lower bound problem. |
| Keywords: | agents’ beliefs; deflationary trap; monetary–fiscal policy; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E52 E61 F33 F36 |
| Date: | 2025–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127946 |
| By: | Vasileios Karaferis (School of Economics, University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether redistributive fiscal policy can be reconciled with macroeconomic efficiency in a heterogeneous agent economy featuring labour market frictions and monetary policy trade-offs. The paper develops a Finitely-Lived Agent New Keynesian (FLANK) model with search-and-matching frictions and a novel participation margin, where households face a constant probability of permanent exclusion from both labour and financial markets. This structure generates persistent inter-generational and cross-sectional inequality and breaks the Ricardian equivalence through finite lifespans and realistic levels of government debt. The model is used to examine the transitional dynamics following a stylized fiscal expansion in the form of transfers to inactive households. The findings suggest that a dovish monetary stance—characterized by a more muted response to inflation—consistently improves labour market outcomes and mitigates inefficiencies, even when fiscal interventions fail to stimulate aggregate demand. These results imply that accommodative monetary policy can enhance the effectiveness of redistribution in heterogeneous-agent environments. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous Agents; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Inequality; Redistribution; Labour Market Frictions |
| JEL: | E21 E24 E52 E62 D63 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edn:esedps:319 |
| By: | Mezine Anass (FSJES AIN SEBAA, Hassan II University –Casablanca); Pr Yaacoubi Abdelhak (FSJES AIN SEBAA, Hassan II University –Casablanca) |
| Abstract: | Deposit interest rates are recognized as one of the determining factors for the volume of savings in the economy. Although, there are cases with contradictory results, it is widely accepted that the rate of remuneration on deposits has a positive relationship with their volume. In other words, bank depositors are typically motivated by maximizing their profits. Even though, the business model of participative banks excludes interest rate, several studies have confirmed that these institutions experience fund outflows in response to market credit interest rate fluctuations. In this paper, we examine the interaction links between the investment deposits' volume in participative banks, the volume of term deposits in conventional banks, and the interest rate's policy. Our study employs a time-series analysis of monthly banks data from January 2020 to June 2024. The methodology adopted is based on an approach ranging from verifiying the statistical properties of the series of variables studied, to analysis of the existence of cointegration and causal relationships between the variables. To achieve this, the Johansen cointegration test, the Granger causality test, and impulse response function (IRF) analysis were used within a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. The results obtained reveal the opportunistic behavior of investment account holders in participative banks who immediately transfer their funds to higher-yielding conventional term deposits following a variation in market rates. Under commercial pressure, the participative banks are compelled to gradually adjust their investment deposits remuneration rates to maintain their attractiveness. Our findings also illustrate the existence of structural interactions between the conventional and participative banking systems, where the strategic decisions of one segment gradually influence the other. Our study confirms the exposure of participative banks to rate of return risks, particularly those related to depositor behavior. However, these institutions struggle with a shortage of risk management instruments. Consequently, they are obliged to develop innovative risk management strategies tailored to their specific characteristics. The recommendations provided in this paper focus notably on developing hedging instruments that comply with participative finance principles, the implementation of a reserve policy based on profit equalization reserves (PER) and investment risk reserves (IRR), and the improvement of internal risk management approaches to better anticipate and manage periods of vulnerability. |
| Abstract: | Les taux créditeurs sont reconnus comme l'un des facteurs déterminants du volume de l'épargne dans l'économie. Malgré qu'il existe des cas de résultats contradictoires, il est généralement admis que le taux de rémunération des dépôts a une relation positive avec le volume de ces derniers. En d'autres termes, les déposants des banques sont généralement motivés par la maximisation de leurs profits. Bien que le mode de fonctionnement des banques participatives est excepte du taux d'intérêt, plusieurs études réalisées ont démontré que ces établissements font face à une fuite de fonds lors d'une fluctuation des taux créditeurs du marché. Dans cet article, nous examinons les liens d'interaction qui existent entre le volume des dépôts d'investissement des banques participatives, le volume des dépôts à terme des banques conventionnelles et le taux directeur. Notre étude utilise une analyse de séries temporelles des données mensuelles des banques de la place de la période allant de Janvier 2020 à Juin 2024. La méthodologie adoptée repose sur une démarche allant de la vérification des propriétés statistiques des séries des variables étudiées, à l'analyse de l'existence des relations de cointégration et de cause à effet entre les variables. Afin d'y parvenir le test de cointégration de Johansen, le test de causalité de Granger et l'analyse de réponse impulsionnelle (IRF) ont été utilisés dans le cadre d'un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur (VECM). Les résultats obtenus révèlent le comportement opportuniste des titulaires des comptes d'investissement des banques participatives qui, suite à une variation des taux du marché, procèdent à un transfert immédiat de leurs fonds vers des dépôts à terme conventionnels plus rémunérés. Sous pression commerciale, les banques participatives se voient incitées à ajuster progressivement leurs taux de rémunération des dépôts d'investissement afin de préserver leur attractivité. Nos résultats illustrent également l'existence des interactions structurelles entre le système bancaire conventionnel et celui participatif, dont les décisions stratégiques de l'un des segments influencent progressivement l'autre. Notre étude affirme l'exposition des banques participatives au risque de taux de rendement liés notamment au comportement de leurs déposants. Cependant, ces établissements souffrent d'une pénurie des instruments de gestion de ce risque. Elles se voient obligées à développer des stratégies de gestion des risques innovantes et adaptées à leurs particularités. Les recommandations apportées dans cet article portent notamment sur le développement d'instruments de couverture conformes aux principes de la finance participative, la mise en place d'une politique de réserves basée sur les réserves de lissage des profits (PER) et des réserves pour risques d'investissement (IRR), ainsi que l'amélioration des approches internes de gestion des risques pour mieux anticiper et gérer les périodes de vulnérabilité. |
| Keywords: | Participative banks, Rate of return risk, Granger causality, Cointegration, Winsorizing, VECM, Banques participatives, Risque de taux de rendement, Causalité Granger, Cointégration, Winsorisation |
| Date: | 2025–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05005487 |
| By: | Katharina Adler; Fabian Kosse; Markus Nagler; Johannes Rincke |
| Abstract: | How do students’ earnings expectations differ by being the first in their family to attend university (FiF) and how do they affect field of study choice? We leverage unique survey and administrative data from a German university to document sizable gaps in expected earnings between FiF and non-FiF students. Our data can explain two-thirds of this gap, with the largest share attributable to field of study choice. We show that FiF students sort less into study fields based on their earnings expectations. Investigating potential explanations, we find that they expect lower own ability and worse non-wage amenities in high-earning fields. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic gaps, first-generation, higher education, earnings expectations |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11700 |
| By: | Pascal Stiefenhofer |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how ethical consumption can transform democratic governance toward sustainability by challenging traditional economic models centered on utility and efficiency. As societal values shift toward transparency equity and environmental responsibility ethical consumers increasingly influence markets. Drawing on Whites Kantian economic framework and Ingleharts theory of value change the paper proposes a model integrating moral imperatives into economic theory. Using a vector bundle approach it captures evolving ethical preferences advocating for an inclusive sustainability focused economic paradigm aligned with post materialist values. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.01138 |
| By: | M. Anselme Hounnou (UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]); Mouhamed El Bachir Wade (UCAD - Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar [Sénégal]); Patrice Aimé Agossou (UAC - Université d’Abomey-Calavi = University of Abomey Calavi) |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à déterminer les facteurs qui expliquent le recours à l'ingénierie financière par les entreprises non financières cotées à la BRVM. Il est une recherche quantitative basée sur un raisonnement de type hypothético-déductif. Pour texter nos hypothèses, nous avons collecté des données sur la période de 2000 à 2018 auprès de 25 entreprises non financières cotées à la BRVM. La modélisation par les équations structurelles est utilisée pour tester les hypothèses de notre recherche. L'analyse structurelle confirmatoire est réalisée avec le logiciel AMOS 26. Les résultats du modèle, significatif au seul de 5%, ont montré que le recours à l'ingénierie financière par les entreprises cotées non financières s'explique par l'adoption d'un comportement stratégique, d'un investissement en actifs intangibles, de la gestion des résultats comptables et le niveau d'endettement des entreprises étudiées. Par ailleurs, cet article confirme que le facteur fondamental du recours à l'ingénierie financière est le niveau d'endettement des entreprises cotées à la BRVM. |
| Keywords: | "Ingénierie financière", "actifs intangibles", "comportement stratégique", gestion des résultats comptables", "niveau d’endettement", Ingénierie financière -actifs intangibles -comportement stratégique -gestion des résultats comptables -niveau d'endettement |
| Date: | 2023–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04990519 |
| By: | Moazzeni, Sahar (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Sgarbossa, Fabio (Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Collaboration and digital technologies are critical enablers for improving logistics systems by enhancing coordination, optimizing resource use, and increasing supply chain responsiveness. Although both areas have been widely studied, their intersection—especially in rural areas—remains underexplored. This paper presents a systematic literature review, conducted in accordance with the PRISMA protocol, to examine how digital technologies support collaborative logistics practices, with particular emphasis on rural contexts. A comprehensive search and rigorous screening of 60 relevant studies revealed literature spanning three interconnected domains: collaborative logistics, digital technologies, and rural logistics. Based on this analysis, we identify three distinct logistics modes that shape interactions between production firms and customers in rural areas: rural-to-rural, rural-to-urban, and urban-to-rural. These modes form the basis of a novel decision-aid model designed to support production system designers and logistics managers in planning and managing collaborative logistics strategies. The model connects suitable collaboration practices with enabling digital technologies. It serves as a practical tool, offering strategic guidance for addressing rural logistics challenges and enhancing system performance through digitally enabled collaboration. The paper concludes by outlining future research directions aimed at advancing knowledge of technology-driven collaboration in logistics systems, particularly in rural settings, where practical insights are still limited. |
| Keywords: | Collaboration; Logistics; Digital technologies; Rural logistics; Literature review |
| JEL: | M11 O14 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2025_012 |
| By: | Schmitz Andreas (European Commission - JRC); Schade Burkhard (European Commission - JRC); Garaffa Rafael (European Commission - JRC); Keramidas Kimon (European Commission - JRC); Dowling Paul (European Commission - JRC); Fosse Florian (European Commission - JRC); Diaz Ana; Russ Peter (European Commission - JRC); Weitzel Matthias (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "This study examines the impacts of enhancing technology progress in clean energy technologies on the global energy system and economy. The analysis focuses on eight thematic technology groups, including wind, solar, batteries, hydrogen and fuel cells, carbon capture, direct air capture and synfuels, biofuels, and heat pumps. Two policy scenarios are considered: a 2°C scenario with stringent carbon policies and a Reference scenario driven primarily by market forces.The study examines the technology adoption patterns within each technology group for the two scenarios, highlighting the differences in the evolution of costs, capacities and production. Moreover, the study analyses the overall impacts in terms of CO2 reduction, investment needs and energy supply costs of enhanced learning within each technology group, as well as for combining enhanced learning across multiple technology groups. The results show that enhanced learning can lead to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, investment needs, and energy supply costs. Moreover, enhanced learning results in favourable in socio-economic outcomes (e.g. economy-wide investments, consumption and energy prices). However, the study suggests that enhancing technology progress is not at all a substitute for stringent climate policies to reduce CO2 emissions." |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc140568 |
| By: | Millimet, Daniel L. (Southern Methodist University); Whitacre, Travis (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Geographic disparities in mortality rates in the US are pronounced and growing. The Black-White mortality gap is volatile but persistent, while the Rich-Poor mortality gap is increasing dramatically. While the causes of these inequalities are not understood, recent attention has focused on the role of place-specific factors. Here, we explore the importance of politics as a place-specific factor contributing to spatial inequality in mortality. Specifically, we test for the existence of partisan mortality cycles using panel data on counties from 1968-2016 and information on the political ideology of state and federal political officials. We confirm the existence of partisan mortality cycles, finding lower mortality in counties governed by more liberal political regimes. Several sources of heterogeneity are also uncovered. While additional research is needed, the analysis here suggests that analyses of spatial, racial, and income differences in mortality ought to start with the political system. |
| Keywords: | geographic disparities, ideology, mortality, political cycles |
| JEL: | I10 I18 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17824 |
| By: | Margolies, Amy; Amunga, Dorcas; Pather, Kamara; Craig, Hope; Olney, Deanna K. |
| Abstract: | Despite progress in reducing child stunting over the past 15 years, Kenya is now facing new nutrition challenges, including overweight and obesity. The double burden of malnutrition (DBM), which is the coexistence of under- and overnutrition within individuals, households, and populations [1], manifests as child stunting and adult overweight (mostly in women) at the population and household levels. Dietary diversity is low and affects different population groups (particularly young children, adolescents, and women), predisposing them to micronutrient deficiencies. However, recent data on micronutrient intake and status are lacking. Households living in urban areas are vulnerable to being overweight, a consequence of increasingly unhealthy dietary patterns. In Kenya’s informal urban settlements, limited dietary diversity, reliance on cereals, and widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) contribute to high rates of child stunting, underweight, and the DBM, with affordability and accessibility driving food choices. Compounding factors include food safety concerns, clustering of unhealthy food vendors, and external shocks. Urban nutrition interventions have had mixed results, with some programs improving child health and maternal knowledge, but others showing no significant impact. Kenya aims to eliminate malnutrition by 2027, but national policies focus mostly on rural areas, leaving urban nutrition challenges insufficiently addressed. Programs such as Afya Jiji and the Nairobi City County Food System Strategy target urban health, but gaps in urban-specific strategies, poor coordination, and limited funding hinder progress. The national school meals program serves only a small portion of schools, and urban food policies are still underdeveloped. |
| Keywords: | dietary diversity; micronutrient deficiencies; obesity; stunting; Kenya; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:173368 |
| By: | Motta Café, Renata |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the fiscal and extra-fiscal effects of decentralizing the collection of Brazil's rural land tax from the federal level to local governments. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we assess the impact of local tax enforcement on revenue, land use, and environmental outcomes. Decentralization led to sustained revenue gains, increased agricultural production, expanded reported environmental protection areas, and slightly decreased land concentration. Our findings highlight the role of property taxation as a policy instrument for environmental conservation and sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | fiscal decentralization;extra-fiscality;Land use;sustainable develop-ment;rural property tax |
| JEL: | H23 H30 H77 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14081 |
| By: | Samuel Rosenow; Alvaro Espitia; Ana Margarida Fernandes |
| Abstract: | Addressing climate change requires green technology deployment. This paper uses firm-level import data in 35 emerging markets to examine how trade policies affect firms’ imports of products associated with solar, wind power, and electric vehicle value chains. Panel estimates show a particularly negative effect of tariffs on green value chain imports compared to average imports, especially in solar and downstream segments. This effect is pervasive from import values and quantities to import probabilities, with undiversified firms most affected. Import regulations have smaller, varied impacts. Emerging markets should avoid protectionist policies, as local firms depend on imports to adopt green technologies. |
| Keywords: | imports, green value chains, trade policy, tariffs, non-tariff measures, firm-level imports, decarbonization value chains, green technology adoption, trade and environment, green technologies |
| JEL: | F13 F14 L11 O19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11726 |
| By: | Dzemski, Andreas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Farago, Adam (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Hjalmarsson, Erik (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Kiss, Tamas (The School of Business, Örebro University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We analyze empirical estimation of the distribution of total payoffs for stock investments over very long horizons, such as 30 years. Formal results for recently proposed bootstrap estimators are derived and alternative parametric methods are proposed. All estimators should be viewed as inconsistent for longer investment horizons. Valid confidence bands are derived and should be the focus when performing inference. Empirically, confidence bands around long-run distributions are very wide and point estimates must be interpreted with great caution. Consequently, it is difficult to distinguish long-run aggregate return distributions across countries; long-run U.S. returns are not significantly different from global returns. |
| Keywords: | Estimation uncertainty; Long-run stock returns; Quantile estimation |
| JEL: | C58 G10 |
| Date: | 2025–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0853 |
| By: | D\'avid Csercsik; Borb\'ala Tak\'acsn\'e T\'oth; P\'eter Kotek; L\'aszl\'o \'A. K\'oczy; Anne Neumann |
| Abstract: | AggregateEU is a new centralised mechanism that provides a no-commitment platform to trade natural gas in the European Union. Throughout the consultation process, AggregateEU has been mocked as `Tinder of the European gas markets' as it helps consumers and suppliers to find partners, but leaves it up to the matched partners to decide whether or not to contract on the possible trade. The non-commitment nature leads to substantial overbidding and many non-realised matches. We propose a quantitative modelling framework to study the effect of overbidding in the AggergateEU demand aggregation or joint purchasing mechanism. We conclude that the mechanism is prone to overbidding and that overbidding has ambiguous effects on trade. Depending on the parameters, overbidding may facilitate trade, but may also result in highly inefficient outcomes when overbidding is combined with a miscoordination over the delivery points. Suggested remedies include allowing for convex bids, restrictions on overbidding, or giving up part of the non-binding character of the market. %Ideally, the traditional mechanisms of gas exchanges should be augmented by features of AggregateEU. Our results sugge |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.05269 |
| By: | Madiha Bendjaballah (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Lydie Belaud (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Sandrine Heitz-Spahn (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Béatrice Siadou-Martin (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | This research looks at local marketplaces, set up with the support of local authorities, which have flourished in France, particularly in response to the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and to the challenges of the economy digitalization. Understanding the factors behind the success and failure of these tools raises questions about their ability to shape the future of town centre retailing. This research is based on a variety of data: press articles reporting on different experiences, semi-directive interviews with town-center managers and consumer opinions. The triangulation of this data highlights strategic and operational issues. Finally, the contributions, limitations and avenues for research are detailed. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche s'intéresse aux places de marché locales, mises en oeuvre avec le soutien des collectivités publiques, qui ont fleuri en France notamment pour faire face aux conséquences de la pandémie de la Covid-19 et pour répondre aux enjeux de digitalisation de l'économie. Comprendre les facteurs de succès et d'échecs de ces dispositifs permet d'interroger leur capacité à constituer l'avenir du commerce de centre-ville. Cette recherche croise différentes données : articles de presse relayant les différentes expériences, entretiens semi-directifs avec les managers de centre-ville, avis de consommateurs. La triangulation de ces données permet de mettre en exergue des enjeux de nature stratégique et opérationnelle. Les contributions, limites et voies de recherche sont finalement détaillées. |
| Keywords: | Commerce, local marketplaces, digitalization, town-centers, place de marché locale, digitalisation, centre-ville |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05011865 |
| By: | Hoa Ho (LMU Munich); Maren Mickeler (ESSEC); SIlvia Castro (LMU Munich) |
| Abstract: | Organizations rely on peer-to-peer knowledge exchange among employees, yet incentivizing cooperative behaviors is a challenge. This study evaluates an intervention designed to encourage peer support in the largest bank in Uganda. Using a cluster randomized controlled trial, we introduced a public recognition incentive-awarding employees identified as the most supportive by their peers and supervisors. The intervention increases employees' willingness to help by 21% in expertise-sharing and 12% in mentoring. The incentive's effectiveness stems from its role in enhancing professional reputation and career prospects. A replication exercise in a second bank confirms the findings and the external validity of the results. |
| Keywords: | workplace cooperation; peer recognition; organizational incentives; knowledge sharing; field experiment; employee motivation; randomized controlled trial (RCT); |
| JEL: | M52 D23 J24 M54 C93 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:531 |