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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Hirokuni Iiboshi; Yasuharu Iwata; Takayuki Tsuruga |
| Abstract: | Japan's prolonged ZLB period alongside substantial debt accumulation makes it a compelling laboratory for testing whether fiscal multipliers differ across normal and ZLB periods. This paper investigates this question using a sign- and zero-restricted TVP-VAR that jointly identifies fiscal rules and structural shocks. We find: (1) government spending and distortionary tax multipliers remain similar across regimes, contradicting standard New Keynesian predictions; (2) fiscal adjustment matters more than the debt-to-GDP ratio in shaping multiplier size; and (3) inflation responses are dampened at the ZLB across various macroeconomic shocks. Our results suggest that the ZLB is irrelevant for output but consequential for inflation. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1306 |
| By: | Arisa Chantaraboontha |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the responses of foreign exchange rates to the Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) and forward guidance (FWG) from 2009 to 2022. I confirm heterogeneous responses of examined foreign exchange rates to unconventional shocks, varying by magnitude and duration depending on the type of shock and monetary policy condition. Both shocks led to an appreciation of foreign currencies against the US dollar across all monetary policy regimes, except for the forward guidance (FWG) shock during the monetary policy normalization period, for which no statistically significant effect was observed. Over the course of the response horizon, the FWG shock had a greater impact magnitude on the examined foreign exchange rates than the LSAP shock. The effects of both unconventional shocks were more persistent during periods of zero lower bound (ZLB) on the policy interest rate than during normalization periods of monetary policy. However, the impact of such shocks on foreign exchange rates diminished within a couple of months, contrasting with the literature that finds more persistent effects. The implementation of variance decomposition reveals that the FWG shock had a significantly greater influence on foreign exchange rate variation than the LSAP shock, emphasizing the importance of effective guidance communication to the markets. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1276r |
| By: | Blandine Labbé-Pinlon (Audencia Business School); Cindy Lombart (Audencia Business School); Virginie Berger (UNICANCER/ICO - Institut de Cancérologie de l'Ouest [Angers/Nantes] - UNICANCER); Didier Louis (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Rémi Mencarelli (Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Savoie Mont-Blanc); Arnaud Rivière (VALLOREM - Val de Loire Recherche en Management - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - NEOLAiA - NEOLAiA European University = Université Européenne NEOLAÏA, UT - Université de Tours - NEOLAiA - NEOLAiA European University = Université Européenne NEOLAÏA, IAE Tours Val de Loire - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Tours Val de Loire) |
| Abstract: | This research sheds new light, in health management, on the effects of therapeutic education. The results of a model test carried out on 225 patients (breast cancer) make it possible to explain the perceived benefits and costs of this care service and the impacts of its overall perceived value on three extra-role behaviors: advocacy, feedback, and helping. It validates its individual and collective contributions in oncology and makes it possible to value them to promote access to this still limited care service. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche apporte un éclairage nouveau, en management de la santé, sur les effets de l'éducation thérapeutique (ET). Les résultats d'un test de modèle mené sur 225 patientes (cancer du sein) permettent d'expliciter ses bénéfices et coûts perçus, et les conséquences de sa valeur perçue globale sur trois comportements extra-rôles : le plaidoyer en faveur de l'ET, le retour d'expérience aux équipes, l'entre-aide patients. L'étude valide ainsi les apports individuels et collectifs de l'ET en oncologie et permet de les valoriser pour élargir l'accès à ce service de soins encore limité. |
| Keywords: | Therapeutic education, extra-role behaviors, Perceived value, Oncology, Éducation thérapeutique, Oncologie, Valeur perçue |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05740428 |
| By: | J. David Brown; Matthew Denes; Ran Duchin; John Hackney |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of vast increases in U.S. small business program eligibility standards, which expanded larger firms' access to support for small businesses. Exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of these expansions and using administrative Census data, we show that revenues decline for the smallest firms, particularly those that are younger, more productive, and financially constrained. Government procurement contracts also are reallocated to larger firms. Consequently, firm exits increase, wages decline, and patenting falls. These findings highlight the economic consequences of expanding eligibility: by crowding out the smallest firms, resources shift away from high-potential firms, reducing dynamism and innovation. |
| JEL: | E24 G38 H25 H57 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35703 |
| By: | Jan Vecer |
| Abstract: | We study how to combine diffusion models that disagree about drift and covariance. Candidate-first relative-entropy minimization gives geometric pooling, whereas expert-first minimization gives the arithmetic mixture associated with weighted logarithmic wealth. Different quadratic variations can make path-space entropy infinite, and the arithmetic mixture need not be a Markov diffusion. We therefore specify a local criterion combining drift information, normalized by the second argument's covariance, with quadratic transport between Gaussian shocks in a fixed state metric. A Gaussian identity and an Euler convergence estimate justify this chosen criterion. The expert-first projection has posterior-mean drift and an inverse-covariance penalty for drift dispersion; in one dimension this penalty increases volatility. For Ornstein--Uhlenbeck experts with a common mean-reversion rate, coefficient regularity holds on the full horizon for common volatility and away from the initial time for heterogeneous volatilities. The candidate-first problem has a Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman characterization. Its matrix covariance selector reduces by congruence to a Bures--Wasserstein barycenter. The condition $H+\lambda M\succ0$, with value Hessian $H$ and state metric $M$, is sharp for finiteness of the unrestricted local covariance problem; compact constraints keep that problem finite. A covariance-disagreement budget interprets the penalty parameter. Linear--quadratic, exact-transition, and financial examples distinguish dynamic volatility reduction, drift-dispersion inflation, and martingale restrictions. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.09470 |
| By: | Georges Daw (Université Paris-Saclay, Faculté Jean Monnet Droit, Économie, Management, , LED - Université Paris 8 Vincennes Saint-Denis, Laboratoire d’économie dionysien-LED, EA 3391, 2 rue de la Liberté - Saint-Denis 93200) |
| Abstract: | The consideration of this article is that it is pivotal for economic policy to have a framework that enables first to understand the determinants of growth and their respective weights, and then to examine prospectively the isolated (i.e., all other variables being equal) or aggregate impact of economic policy on potential growth. We have improved the precision of this framework by distinguishing between global, technological and human progress, by considering intermediate consumption (IC), and by dividing French economy into three productive sectors (including the ICT sector). We calibrated the model using a newly constructed dataset researchers may find useful. The results inform that, given its economic characteristics, France's potential growth is stagnant (0, 11 %) and essentially (around 2/3) intensive explained by global progress and ICT-sector specific advances. The extensive part is due to capital deepening. Assessing the impact on potential growth of a number of variables that are central to economic policy, we obtain that TFP, whose contribution to potential growth was nil over the period studied, has the highest growth multiplier coefficient (slightly over 1). Within the typology of progress, the one passing through IC has the highest impact on growth (coefficient of 0.2). |
| Abstract: | L'idée centrale de cet article est qu'il est essentiel, pour la conduite des politiques économiques, de disposer d'un cadre permettant, d'une part, d'identifier les déterminants de la croissance ainsi que leurs poids respectifs et, d'autre part, d'évaluer de manière prospective l'impact isolé (toutes choses égales par ailleurs) ou agrégé des politiques économiques sur la croissance potentielle. Nous améliorons la précision de ce cadre en distinguant le progrès global, le progrès technologique et le progrès humain, en prenant en compte les consommations intermédiaires (CI) et en décomposant l'économie française en trois secteurs productifs, dont le secteur des technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC). Le modèle est calibré à l'aide d'une base de données originale, qui pourra s'avérer utile à d'autres chercheurs. Les résultats montrent que, compte tenu de ses caractéristiques économiques, la croissance potentielle de la France est quasi stagnante (0, 11 %) et s'explique essentiellement, à hauteur d'environ deux tiers, par le progrès global et les avancées propres au secteur des TIC. Sa composante extensive provient principalement de l'intensité capitalistique. L'évaluation de l'impact sur la croissance potentielle de plusieurs variables centrales pour la politique économique révèle que la PGF, dont la contribution à la croissance potentielle est nulle sur la période étudiée, présente le multiplicateur de croissance le plus élevé (légèrement supérieur à 1). Au sein de la typologie des formes de progrès retenues, le progrès transitant par les consommations intermédiaires exerce l'effet le plus important sur la croissance (coefficient de 0, 2). |
| Keywords: | Gross output, sectoral output, value added (VA) and intermediate consumption (IC), Prospective and policy objectives, Human and technical changes, General equilibrium model for French economy, Solow residual or Total Factor Productivity, Growth accounting |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05729490 |
| By: | Haya Halimeh; Sascha Kaltenpoth; Kevin B\"osch; Oliver M\"uller |
| Abstract: | LLM-based GUI agents increasingly act on behalf of users in digital environments that were designed with human users in mind. These graphical user interfaces were designed to support, but also deliberately steer, the behaviour and decisions of users. While behavioural biases in the textual outputs of LLMs are well-documented, far less is known about how such influence operates when models act as agents that perceive interfaces and execute decisions---and, in particular, whether the reasoning capabilities increasingly built into these agents make them more robust to it. Drawing on Dual-Process Theory, we empirically investigate whether LLM-based GUI agents are susceptible to automatic (Type 1) and reflective (Type 2) digital nudges, and how their reasoning configuration moderates this susceptibility. In a randomized online shopping experiment with 3, 600 agents and a total of 21, 600 simulations across six frontier models from three providers, we found that agents were vulnerable to both nudge types. Crucially, the reasoning configuration moderated these effects in opposing directions, reducing susceptibility to automatic default nudges while heightening it to reflective social influence nudges. Extensive reasoning therefore did not make agents more robust but redirected the route through which choice architecture takes effect. Exploratory analysis further showed this redirection to be systematically structured by model scale. Beyond establishing nudge susceptibility as a behavioural property of agentic AI, the study positions interface design as a governance concern for organizations that delegate decisions to autonomous agents. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.19843 |
| By: | Manal Nachite (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Taoufiq Yahyaoui (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamics of urban growth and the challenges of territorial governance in three major Moroccan cities: Rabat, Casablanca, and Tangier. Drawing on a panel data set spanning the period from 2010 to 2023, we employ an econometric model using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to examine the impact of multiple socio-economic variables on urban growth. The study primarily focuses on the role of local governance, public investment, unemployment, and access to basic services as key explanatory variables. Our findings highlight that territorial governance exerts a strong and statistically significant positive effect on urban growth. Similarly, public investments appear to be a powerful driver of urban development by stimulating infrastructure expansion and local economic activities. Access to essential urban services such as healthcare, education, and transportation also plays a vital role in enhancing urban dynamics and reducing spatial inequalities. Conversely, the results indicate that high unemployment rates continue to constrain urban expansion, underscoring the importance of inclusive labor market policies. The comparison between the three cities reveals that Tangier, benefiting from large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Tangier Med Port, experiences a more dynamic urban growth compared to Casablanca and Rabat. This research provides policy-relevant into the mechanisms of urban transformation in Morocco. It suggests that strengthening governance structures, improving coordination between territorial actors, and increasing investment in basic services are essential for sustainable and equitable urban development. The findings contribute to a better understanding of urbanization processes in the global south, and inform strategies to foster resilient and inclusive cities. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine les dynamiques de croissance urbaine et les défis de la gouvernance territoriale dans trois grandes villes marocaines : Rabat, Casablanca et Tanger. S'appuyant sur un ensemble de données de panel couvrant la période de 2010 à 2023, nous utilisons un modèle économétrique utilisant la méthode des moindres carrés ordinaires (OLS) pour examiner l'impact de multiples variables socio-économiques sur la croissance urbaine. L'étude se concentre principalement sur le rôle de la gouvernance locale, des investissements publics, du chômage et de l'accès aux services de base comme variables explicatives clés. Nos résultats soulignent que la gouvernance territoriale exerce un effet positif fort et statistiquement significatif sur la croissance urbaine. De même, les investissements publics semblent être un puissant moteur du développement urbain en stimulant l'expansion des infrastructures et les activités économiques locales. L'accès aux services urbains essentiels tels que les soins de santé, l'éducation et les transports joue également un rôle vital dans l'amélioration des dynamiques urbaines et la réduction des inégalités spatiales. À l'inverse, les résultats indiquent que des taux de chômage élevés continuent de freiner l'expansion urbaine, soulignant l'importance des politiques inclusives du marché du travail. La comparaison entre les trois villes révèle que Tanger, bénéficiant de projets d'infrastructure à grande échelle tels que le port Tanger Med, connaît une croissance urbaine plus dynamique par rapport à Casablanca et Rabat. Cette recherche fournit des informations politiques pertinentes sur les mécanismes de transformation urbaine au Maroc. Il suggère que le renforcement des structures de gouvernance, l'amélioration de la coordination entre les acteurs territoriaux et l'augmentation des investissements dans les services de base sont essentiels pour un développement urbain durable et équitable. Les résultats contribuent à une meilleure compréhension des processus d'urbanisation dans le sud global, et éclairent les stratégies pour favoriser des villes résilientes et inclusives. |
| Keywords: | urban growth, territorial governance, econometric model, Morocco, Moroccan cities. Classification JEL: R11, R58, H70, O18, C23, R13, urban growth territorial governance econometric model Morocco Moroccan cities. Classification JEL: R11 R58 H70 O18 C23 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05727059 |
| By: | Marcelo Silva Oliveira Gonçalves (IPC) |
| Keywords: | Cisternas Programme; climate resilience; drought;water access; Brazil Semi-Arid; public health; adaptation policy |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:idopen:013 |
| By: | Felix Kersting; Iris Wohnsiedler |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how collective bargaining institutions emerged from competition within the labor movement. We draw on newly assembled data on strikes, union membership, and bargaining agreements at the county-occupation level in Imperial Germany around 1900. Three rival factions competed for control of the labor movement: the social-democratic Free Trade Unions, the radical unions, and the moderate unions, divided over whether to confront employers, negotiate with them, or both. The Free Trade Unions struck more effectively than the radical unions and bargained far more than the moderate ones. Instrumenting Free Trade Union strength with distance to their headquarters, we show that stronger organization raised the likelihood that agreements emerged. Strike activity rose ahead of first agreements and fell thereafter. The effect is concentrated in multi-employer agreements with peace obligations, the bargaining form that later defined the German model. Organized employers played little part in this process. Durable bargaining institutions emerged where a movement could both sustain conflict and commit to settling it. |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0108 |
| By: | Grace E. Venechuk; Jason Paul Bonham (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The macrolevel relationship between increases in women’s education, family SES, and declines in fertility is well-established. However, region-specific studies (e.g., Sub-Saharan Africa) often highlight exceptions to this trend. We add to the literature by examining this relationship within the historical context of Utah. Utah is an outlier in many ways—it has historically been homogenous with regards to religion, had strong schooling systems, and had higher than average fertility. In this context, we examine whether 1) husband’s employment is associated with wife’s education levels, 2) wife’s education levels are associated with age at first birth and total births, and 3) the relationship between the interaction of husband’s employment, wife’s education and fertility outcomes. We find a negative relationship between wife’s education and fertility—however, we also find that, among self-employed husbands, each additional year of wife’s schooling is associated with an increase in total number of children. |
| Keywords: | Utah, completed fertility, education of women, fertility, gender, occupational choice |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-038 |
| By: | Luca Bargna (Department of Economics, Insubria University, Varese, Italy); Davide La Torre (SKEMA Business School, Université Côte d'Azur, France); Benjamin Montmartin (SKEMA Business School, France; Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; OFCE, Sciences Po, France; SKEMA Business School, France) |
| Abstract: | We develop a spatial optimal-control model in which air pollution and climate-mitigation innovation evolve jointly through a coupled reaction–diffusion system. We characterize stability and optimal policy, derive closed-form controls under spatial homogeneity, and obtain bounds for nonlinear dynamics. Using data from 1, 181 European NUTS 3 regions over 2005–2020, we estimate the reaction–diffusion dynamics and simulate the optimal policy mix under alternative welfare valuations of pollution-generating activities. Pollution exhibits strong spatial diffusion, whereas innovation diffusion is limited. Innovation is associated with lower subsequent pollution growth, while higher pollution is followed by stronger innovation growth. The optimal policy mix combines environmental regulation and innovation support, but their timing and persistence differ. Abatement may be immediate or delayed depending on the net welfare contribution of pollution-generating activities, while sustained innovation support depends on the value assigned to the terminal innovation stock. |
| Keywords: | Optimal control; Reaction–diffusion systems; Pollution; Innovation; Spatial econometrics |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-21 |
| By: | Rebekah Avard (Bath Social and Development Research); Tara Bedi (Trinity College Dublin and TIME); Michael King (Trinity College Dublin and TIME); James Copestake (University of Bath); Fiona Remnant (Bath Social and Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Raising women's empowerment through economic inclusion and social protection programmes has proved challenging. Women's access to resources improves but across many studies measured decision-making agency barely moves. Part of the weakness in evidence may be measurement as composite indices may conceal change that occurs unevenly across domains. Within the context of a multi‐faceted anti‐poverty, or Graduation, programme in Malawi, we investigate the women's empowerment impacts of gender targeting, and the additive effect of a 12‐month couples economic cooperation and empowerment training. We combine the results from a randomised control trial with 2, 934 women from poor married households with findings from qualitative research in which researchers collect unprompted accounts of change from the participants' perspective to challenge and substantiate the quantitative findings. Female resources rise in all three treatment arms. The aggregate decision making index moves only where the couples training is added, and only marginally, but beneath it financial decision‐making rises in both female‐targeted arms while male targeting reduces women's say over productive decisions, the very activities the programme creates. Qualitatively, women across arms describe more collaborative decision‐making over income generating activities, the essential realm of the Graduation programme, more than over budgeting, and budgeting moves mainly where the couples training addressed it directly; the driver they name unprompted is the programme's gender messaging rather than the cash. We show that participant‐led and unprompted qualitative evidence can identify which components of composite indices merit attention, independently of researcher priors. |
| Keywords: | Social Protection, Intra-household, Gender Empowerment, Measurement |
| JEL: | J16 D13 O12 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1526 |
| By: | Carlos Cueva |
| Abstract: | Comparing economic models requires balancing fit against flexibility. Yet standard selection criteria often proxy flexibility using parameter counts, overlooking differences due to functional form and experimental design. This paper introduces a data compression approach for evaluating economic models. Following the Minimum Description Length principle, models are interpreted as codes and evaluated by how effectively they compress data. This perspective yields compression-based analogues of Selten's predictive success and Fudenberg et al.'s completeness and restrictiveness. Unlike Selten's measure, its analogue unifies deterministic and stochastic models in a likelihood framework; unlike Fudenberg et al.'s measures, the proposed framework provides a complete selection criterion. Applications to social preferences, risky choice, and intertemporal choice illustrate the relevance of the approach. In simulations, accounting for flexibility differences due to functional form and experimental design improves model recovery relative to AIC, BIC, and cross-validation. In empirical reanalyses, MDL changes model rankings in favor of more parsimonious specifications. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.25009 |
| By: | Fang Fang; Xiaoyu Shen; Qinling Wang |
| Abstract: | We introduce ISCOS, a cross-entropy importance-sampling calibration method for rare credit-portfolio losses. We derive Gaussian and Gaussian--inverse-Gamma proposals and analyse the propagation of finite-COS approximation errors to the fitted parameters. Numerical experiments for Gaussian and Student t-copula credit portfolios show the efficiency of this method. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.30749 |
| By: | Piccolo, Jessica; Russo, Alessia; Granziera, Eleonora; Castelnuovo, Efrem |
| Abstract: | We design a novel survey to study how education shapes households' joint beliefs about inflation, unemployment, and monetary policy transmission. College-educated respondents perceive the inflation-unemployment trade-off and hold views similar to professional forecasters, while less educated respondents favor supply-side narratives. When exposed to hypothetical monetary policy interventions, the more educated update expectations and adjust consumption and saving in line with standard models, whereas the less educated display greater rigidity. This education gradient persists after controlling for information sources, financial literacy, and institutional trust, pointing to differences in abstract reasoning. Open-ended responses are consistent with college-educated households holding mental models aligned with standard macroeconomic theory. |
| Keywords: | Household expectations, education, mental models, monetary policy transmission, belief heterogeneity, survey data |
| JEL: | D83 D84 E31 E52 I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:343547 |
| By: | Kim, Yong Jin |
| Abstract: | The international system is moving away from the relatively coherent post-Cold War order toward layered and contested multipolarity. Military power is diffusing; economic interdependence is increasingly securitized; alliance commitments are exposed to domestic bargaining; and states are embedded in overlapping security, technology, financial, and industrial networks. This paper develops a general framework for alliance choice and strategic autonomy under these conditions. A stylized model with linear preferences and linear technologies treats the United States and China as competing network centers: the sponsor chooses whether and how strongly to support its network, while smaller states compare alternative networks according to security, geography, productivity and supply-chain effects, transfers, political-assimilation costs, and indigenous capability. The model distinguishes decentralized allied defense from a network-planner benchmark and derives an alliance transfer multiplier theorem for alliance transfers. Under a frictionless one-for-one reallocation from direct U.S. military spending to an ally transfer, if the induced present-value increase in allied military effort exceeds one per unit transferred, the alliance multiplier raises U.S.-alliance military capability and, through the modeled hegemonic-power channel, U.S. welfare; allied welfare also rises under the maintained assumptions when the multiplier exceeds one. Although the local theorem holds membership fixed, entry can amplify the effect through network size, productivity, and further induced military effort. Conversely, transfer cuts near participation thresholds can trigger nonlinear alliance weakening. The formal logic is linked to a four-index comparative diagnostic applied across fourteen states. Strategic autonomy is defined not as equidistant neutrality but as the capacity to preserve meaningful choice under pressure. South Korea is retained as a brief hard-case illustration in Appendix A. |
| Keywords: | multipolarity, hegemonic stability, strategic autonomy, alliance networks, U.S.-China competition, network externalities |
| JEL: | F50 F52 F53 H56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343606 |
| By: | Chiara Canta (TBS - Toulouse Business School); Helmuth Cremer (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal long-term care (LTC) policy when informal care can be provided by children in exchange for monetary transfers from their elderly parents. We consider a bargaining model with single-child families, where daughters have lower labor market wages, and bargaining power within the family varies by the child's gender. In the laissez-faire scenario, daughters always provide more informal care than sons. When their bargaining weight is smaller, they also experience lower welfare; however, this may be reversed if their bargaining weight is sufficiently high. The first-best outcome involves redistribution from families with sons to families with daughters and can be implemented through a gender-specific schedule of public LTC benefits and state-contingent transfers to adult children. Gender neutrality disadvantages families with daughters and may even leave daughters worse off than under laissez faire. It also leads to a distorted allocation of care within families with daughters and affects the distribution of transfers in all families. |
| Keywords: | informal care, Long-term care, strategic bequests, family bargaining, gender-neutrality |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05746561 |
| By: | Mukhopadhyay, Sankar (University of Nevada, Reno) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how reducing the risk of income-related Medicaid disenrollment affects labor supply. The Families First Coronavirus Response Act of 2020 conditioned enhanced federal Medicaid funding on states maintaining continuous coverage, prohibiting most disenrollments regardless of income changes during the COVID-19 public health emergency. Using PSID data, we estimate event-study models with individual fixed effects. Treatment status is held fixed throughout the panel to avoid conditioning on post-policy Medicaid enrollment. The baseline Medicaid group experienced a 4.6-hour (or about 14%) larger change in weekly hours worked than the comparison group (p = 0.006), robust across alternative specifications. Employment responses are concentrated among married spouses and partners (17.2 percentage points, p = 0.015), consistent with a household-level channel in which secondary-earner employment is discouraged under ordinary Medicaid rules because additional household earnings can trigger coverage loss. Among expansion-state enrollees, the probability of having taxable family income above 138 percent of the federal poverty threshold rises by 14.8 percentage points (p = 0.015), supporting the coverage-loss-risk interpretation. |
| Keywords: | Medicaid, continuous coverage, labor supply, income |
| JEL: | I13 I18 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18887 |
| By: | Duong Trinh |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new econometric framework to identify and estimate policy-relevant causal effects in contexts with endogenous selection into treatment and spillovers within single large networks or spatial settings. Conventional causal inference methods relying on either unconfoundedness or no-interference assumptions are generally inadequate in these scenarios. We introduce a Spillover Roy model that jointly models endogenous treatment selection and potential outcomes while allowing spillovers through a low-dimensional exposure mapping of neighbors' treatments. The model captures heterogeneous treatment responses across levels of latent resistance to treatment and neighborhood exposure. Within this framework, we define policy-relevant direct, spillover, and total effects under feasible policy changes and show that the total effect decomposes into a direct component from policy-induced participation and a spillover component from policy-induced changes in neighborhood treatment exposure. For estimation and inference, we develop a Bayesian data-augmentation algorithm with parameter expansion that enables efficient posterior computation and coherent uncertainty quantification for heterogeneous causal effects and policy counterfactuals. An application to the U.S. Opportunity Zones program finds positive direct effects on housing development but limited spillover benefits, while counterfactual policy analysis reveals diminishing returns from program expansion. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.25720 |
| By: | David Roodman; Maxim Massenkoff |
| Abstract: | We review the evidence on subsidized job training programs in industrial countries. We provide critical, narrative summaries of randomized studies of major job training in the US; of two "judge randomization" studies in the US and Denmark; and of previous meta-analyses. We then perform a meta-analysis of 56 randomized trials of job training in the US since 1973, the most exhaustive meta-analysis in this niche. Here, average impacts are positive but modest: employment rises 1.7 percentage points in years 3-5, and annual pre-tax earnings by roughly \$800 per person offered training. At an average cost of \$13, 598 per participant, programs roughly break even under (debatable) assumptions about how long benefits persist. They recoup about three-quarters of their cost for government through higher tax revenue and lower benefit use. Evaluations of the largest federal efforts--JTPA, the Workforce Investment Act, and Job Corps--return small or null effects. One cluster of programs stands out: "sector programs, " which screen applicants intensively, design curricula with employers, and track local skill demand. They raise earnings roughly ten times as much. They have proven difficult to replicate. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.07011 |
| By: | Thierry Kirat (CNRS, UMR Triangle, Université de Saint-Etienne, France); Frédéric Marty (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; CIRANO, Montréal) |
| Abstract: | The Chair of the FTC was outvoted in July 2026 in a decision concerning the early termination of a proceeding opened regarding a proposed vertical merger in the quantum computing sector. The disagreement centered on whether to pursue behavioral remedies to counter potential short-term anticompetitive effects. Beyond the competition issue itself, the case is of interest for what it reveals about the complementarity between competition policy and industrial policy. Indeed, in the context of federal support for the construction of new foundries (a central dimension of the foreclosure risks associated with the vertical merger), industrial policy appears as a tool for lifting competitive bottlenecks, while competition policy serves as a tool for preserving competition during the transition phase. |
| Keywords: | vertical merger; foreclosure risk; behavioural remedies; quantum computing; antitrust |
| JEL: | K21 L12 L22 L42 L63 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-22 |
| By: | Manuel Naviglio; Fabrizio Lillo |
| Abstract: | Understanding the joint dynamics of prices and trades is central to market microstructure, where returns and order flow interact through nonlinear and state-dependent mechanisms. Linear models are interpretable but may miss these effects, while deep neural networks improve forecasting at the cost of transparency. We use neural networks as tools for structural discovery rather than only for prediction. A deep feed-forward network is trained on high-frequency returns and signed volumes for large- and small-tick stocks and compared with a linear VAR benchmark. The neural network improves predictive performance, especially for returns, revealing nonlinear dependencies beyond the linear specification. Using Shapley-based explainability, we show that the dominant contributions are concentrated at the most recent lags. Model-implied responses are consistent with conditional averages reconstructed from the data. Unlike empirical averages, however, the neural-network decomposition isolates individual regressor contributions to the aggregate dependence. Lagged signed volume generates sign-preserving and saturating effects, consistent with nonlinear price impact and order-flow persistence. Lagged returns act as state variables: when the previous trade does not move the price, the model predicts continuation in the direction of past order flow, whereas non-zero returns generate attenuation or reversal. Building on these findings, we introduce a parsimonious SHAP-inspired nonlinear parametric model. It reproduces the main return-volume dependencies, outperforms the linear VAR benchmark, and achieves performance comparable to the neural network. A multi-lag extension captures residual longer-memory effects while preserving interpretability. Overall, explainability offers a route from black-box prediction to economically meaningful parametric models of price and trade dynamics. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.06085 |
| By: | Chunle Huang |
| Abstract: | In this note, we introduce a new comonotonic approximation for sums of lognormal random variables based on the famous Perron-Frobenius theorem. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.06118 |
| By: | Lei Liu |
| Abstract: | Investment performance is commonly presented either as a conventional cumulative-return chart, which fixes a historical starting date and traces performance forward, or as a trailing-return table, which fixes the current endpoint but reports only a small set of prespecified horizons. These two displays have complementary limitations: fixed-start comparisons are conditional on the selected origin, whereas trailing returns provide only discrete snapshots of the underlying fixed-endpoint return function. We present the Return-to-Present (RTP) curve as a continuous fixed-endpoint representation that brings these perspectives together by holding the evaluation date fixed while allowing the hypothetical historical purchase date to vary over the available history. Familiar 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and longer trailing returns therefore become selected points on a continuous curve. When multiple investments are overlaid, RTP directly displays entry-date sensitivity, persistent relative advantage, crossings, and the timing and magnitude of separation without requiring selection of a single historical origin. The same endpoint-based construction naturally accommodates investments with unequal inception dates, recurring purchases, and retrospective portfolio rotation decisions in which sale and replacement-purchase dates may differ. We illustrate these uses with real investment data and discuss its relationship to momentum. RTP does not define a new return measure; its contribution is a simple graphical organization of familiar realized returns for historical comparison and decision support rather than prediction or statistical inference. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.06267 |
| By: | Jackson, James; Larsen, Mathias |
| Abstract: | There is an ongoing debate amongst scholars as to whether democratic or authoritarian political systems are more effective in achieving climate policy outcomes. In this article, we follow the latter trend through the concept of eco-authoritarianism, proposing that it is the appropriate way to understand China’s approach to the green transition. Drawing on primary and secondary data on China’s electric vehicle (EV) transition, we make two contributions to the environmental politics literature. First, we go beyond the current high-level theorising of eco-authoritarianism by identifying political architecture, ambitions & priorities, and state capacity as key to applying the concept. Second, we provide an empirical account of China’s EV transition through these dimensions as core features of eco-authoritarianism, finding that they create policy durability – effective coordination of policies across the state apparatus, policy consistency over time, and market-shaping levels of policy support. |
| Keywords: | China;climate policy;eco-authoritarianism;eElectric vehicles;green transition;industrial policy |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140991 |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we discuss bequests and other intergenerational transfers and what impact they have on the consumption, saving, and labor supply behavior of households. We show that bequests and other intergenerational transfers are prevalent in most countries, that they are sometimes motivated by altruism and sometimes by selfishness, that they affect the consumption and saving behavior of households to some extent, especially that of elderly households, that they affect the labor supply behavior of households, especially that of bequest recipients, and that they have important policy implications. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1288r |
| By: | Hugo Freeman; Dennis Kristensen |
| Abstract: | We study identification of two-way unobserved heterogeneity in the nonparametric panel regression $G_{it}=g(\alpha_i, \gamma_t)+\varepsilon_{it}$, where identification of the latent types reduces to constructing identified, \emph{injective} proxies for them. To this end we consider the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the bivariate regression function $g(\alpha, \gamma)$ on a product domain $\Omega_\alpha\times\Omega_\gamma$, whose left singular functions $\{u_r\}$ serve as proxies for the unobserved heterogeneity parameter $\alpha$. The arguments are symmetric for $\{v_r\}$ vis-\`a-vis $\gamma$. We work under an \emph{observational-equivalence simplification}: two values of $\alpha$ that induce the same conditional response $g(\alpha, \cdot)$ are identified, so that the response map $\alpha\mapsto g(\alpha, \cdot)$ is injective by construction. We show two things. First, this reduction is \emph{equivalent} to injectivity of the full collection of left singular eigenfunctions, so no further condition is needed over the infinite collection $\{u_r\}_{r\ge1}$. Second, under a single additional \emph{local injectivity} condition, a finite collection of leading eigenfunctions $U_R=(u_1^{\top}, \dots, u_R^{\top})^{\top}$ is injective for all sufficiently large $R$. The proof reduces a global univalence question to a local first-order condition plus a topological compactness argument, bypassing the global Jacobian conditions usually required. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.27155 |
| By: | Cavigneaux, Elie |
| Abstract: | Sanctions are a key instrument in the European Union's foreign and security policy. Although their enforcement depends on the Union's ability to act legally as well as politically, prosecutions remain constrained by national borders. For this reason, France and Germany proposed in 2022 that the mandate of the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) be expanded to cover violations of EU sanctions. That initiative failed to gain sufficient support in the Council, nor was the problem solved by the 2024 directive defining offences and penalties. The change of government in Hungary and the review of EPPO's mandate scheduled for 2026 offer an opportunity to revisit the issue. |
| Keywords: | European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO), EPPO mandate, enhanced cooperation, EU sanctions, sanctions violations, criminal law, cross-border crime, European Anti-Fraud Office, OLAF |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:343502 |
| By: | Hüther, Michael; Demary, Markus; Fremerey, Melinda; Gerards Iglesias, Simon |
| Abstract: | Die internationale Währungsordnung befindet sich in einer Phase des strukturellen Umbruchs, die durch geopolitische Spannungen, handelspolitische Fragmentierung und nationale Selbstgenügsamkeit der USA geprägt ist. Das exportbasierte europäische Geschäftsmodell steht massiv unter Druck. Gleichzeitig erodiert die bisher unangefochtene Dominanz des US-Dollars als globale Leitwährung. Ursächlich hierfür sind eine stetig wachsende Verschuldung von Staat und privaten Akteuren in den USA, politische Unwägbarkeiten sowie die willkürliche Instrumentalisierung des Dollars in internationalen Konflikten. Dies eröffnet der Europäischen Union (EU) eine historische Gelegenheit, den Euro in einem zunehmend multipolaren Währungssystem strategisch stärker zu positionieren. Obwohl der Euro unbestritten die zweitwichtigste Reserve- und Transaktionswährung der Welt darstellt und die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) eine hohe Reputation durch Unabhängigkeit und erfolgreiches Krisenmanagement erarbeiten konnte, stagniert sein globaler Bedeutungsanteil seit geraumer Zeit auf diesem Niveau. Eine wesentliche Ursache hierfür ist die anhaltende Fragmentierung der europäischen Finanzmärkte sowie das gravierende Fehlen eines tiefen, integrierten europäischen Marktes für sichere Anlageformen ("Safe Assets"). Während der US-Kapitalmarkt durch seine enorme Liquidität und Markttiefe besticht, konkurrieren in der Eurozone weiterhin zahlreiche nationale Emittenten mit stark divergierenden Risikoprofilen, Emissionsstrategien und Emissionsinfrastrukturen, was internationale institutionelle Investoren weniger attraktiv ist. Um die internationale Rolle des Euro zu stärken, müssen umfassende institutionelle Reformen umgesetzt werden. Zentral sind hierbei die Vollendung der europäischen Kapitalmarktunion sowie die Schaffung eines einheitlichen europäischen Referenzwerts durch gemeinsame Safe Assets (Eurobonds). Die vorliegende Studie skizziert hierfür einen pragmatischen, graduellen Pfad: In einer Übergangsphase könnten synthetische Währungskörbe aus bestehenden nationalen Staatsanleihen gebildet werden, um dem Markt erste standardisierte Liquidität zur Verfügung zu stellen. Langfristig ist jedoch eine echte gemeinsame Emissionsstruktur unabdingbar, das heißt eine gemeinsame europäische Emissionsinfrastruktur, die europäische Anleihen emittiert. Um politische Widerstände zu überwinden und das Moral-Hazard-Problem zu minimieren, sollten Eurobonds eng an eine europäische Investitions- und Verteidigungsunion gekoppelt werden. Neben der finanziellen Architektur erfordert der Status einer Leitwährung unweigerlich die Stabilität der Institutionen in der Eurozone sowie den Ausbau der geoökonomischen und militärischen "Hard Power". Historisch halten Staaten bevorzugt die Währungen jener Mächte, die glaubwürdig sicherheitspolitischen Schutz und territoriale Stabilität garantieren können. Die internationale Stärkung des Euro ist kein politisches Prestigeprojekt, sondern ein unverzichtbares Resilienzprogramm zur Sicherung der strategischen Autonomie und finanziellen Souveränität Europas. Ein starker Euro würde die Finanzierungskosten durch Wohlstandseffekte senken und die geopolitische Handlungsfähigkeit der EU durch Relevanz signifikant erweitern. |
| Abstract: | The international monetary order is currently undergoing a structural transformation characterized by geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation. Europe's export-driven business model is under severe pressure. Concurrently, the historically undisputed dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is eroding. This development is driven by the US twin deficit, a continuously growing national debt, political volatility, and the increasing weaponization of the dollar in international conflicts. Consequently, a historic window of opportunity has opened for the European Union to strategically strengthen the euro's position within an increasingly multipolar monetary system. While the euro indisputably remains the world's second most important reserve and transaction currency, its global market share has stagnated for some time. A primary cause for this is the persistent fragmentation of European financial markets and the critical lack of a deep, integrated market for safe assets. While the US capital market is characterized by its vast liquidity and market depth, the eurozone continues to feature numerous national issuers competing with highly divergent risk profiles-a dynamic that deters international institutional investors. Strengthening the Euro's international role requires the implementation of comprehensive institutional reforms. The completion of the Capital Markets Union and the Banking Union, alongside the establishment of a unified European benchmark through joint bonds (Eurobonds), are of paramount importance. To this end, the present study outlines a pragmatic, gradual roadmap: during a transitional phase, synthetic sovereign bond baskets comprising existing national debt could be introduced to provide the market with initial standardized liquidity. In the long run, however, a genuine joint issuance framework is indispensable. To overcome political resistance and mitigate moral hazard, genuine Eurobonds should be strictly tied to a European investment and defense union. Beyond financial architecture, achieving the status of a dominant reserve currency inevitably requires the expansion of geo-economic and military "hard power". Historically, states have demonstrated a strong preference for holding the currencies of powers capable of providing credible security guarantees and territorial stability. In conclusion, strengthening the international role of the euro is not merely a political prestige project, but an essential resilience program designed to safeguard Europe's strategic autonomy and financial sovereignty. A stronger euro would reduce financing costs through wealth effects and significantly enhance the EU's geopolitical agency. |
| JEL: | E42 F33 G15 H63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:343586 |
| By: | Miguel Martín-Retortillo (Universidad de Alcalá. Departamento de Economía. Alcalá, Spain); Vicente Pinilla (Universidad de Zaragoza. Departamento de Economía Aplicada e Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2). Zaragoza, Spain); Jackeline Velazco (Universitat de Girona. Girona, Spain. Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, Departamento de Economía. Perú.); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República. Instituto de Economía. Uruguay.) |
| Abstract: | Latin American agriculture has been fundamental to understanding the region’s long-run economic development. Historically, both agricultural output and productivity have experienced substantial growth. Divergences in geographical characteristics—such as climate, altitude, and terrain ruggedness—alongside institutional frameworks, agrarian reforms, and varying patterns of integration into global markets, have fostered distinct national experiences and varying degrees of developmental persistence. This work examines these overarching trends in Latin American agriculture from 1870 to 2020, while accounting for country-specific heterogeneities. Factors such as exposure to international markets, technological shifts during the first wave of globalization and the subsequent Green Revolution, institutional transformations, and adaptation to local environmental and geographical conditions have collectively shaped the evolution of Latin American agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Latin American Economic History, Latin American Agriculture, Agricultural TFP |
| JEL: | N56 O13 Q10 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:2604 |