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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Lorko, Matej; Servátka, Maroš; Slonim, Robert |
| Abstract: | Many charitable organizations invite potential donors to first join a registry before soliciting donations from those who have joined. Behavioral theories suggest that the choice architecture of registry enrollment can influence not just participation but also future giving. Some approaches may be relatively more likely to increase the likelihood of joining but reduce the subsequent propensity to donate and the amount donated, while other methods might have the opposite effect. We experimentally test four behavioral theories – overhead aversion, status quo bias, reciprocity, and moral consistency – in a two-stage donor engagement model. We find that (1) disclosing registry-related overhead costs decreases donations, (2) changing the default enrollment method (op-in vs. opt-out) does not affect enrollment nor donations, (3) targeting reciprocity by offering a small gift conditional on joining the registry boosts enrollment but not donations, and (4) targeting moral consistency by requesting an upfront contribution does not decrease the likelihood of joining the registry and can improve charity returns. Our findings emphasize how subtle differences in the design of early-stage donor approaches can influence longer-term fundraising outcomes. |
| Keywords: | charitable giving, donor registry, overhead aversion, status quo bias, reciprocity, moral consistency, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D47 D64 D8 |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129222 |
| By: | Jean-Guillaume Sahuc; Barbara Annicchiarico; Gauthier Vermandel |
| Abstract: | We study the intergenerational distributional effects of carbon pricing during the green transition in an overlapping-generations New Keynesian model calibrated to euro-area household micro data. Climate policy generates systematic redistribution across cohorts through two channels: a labor-income channel, driven by wage compression and lower labor demand, and a financial-wealth channel, driven by asset revaluation and higher real returns. The labor- income channel dominates quantitatively , generating persistent welfare losses of up to 6 percent in permanent-consumption equivalents for working-age households, while retirees experience comparable gains. Revenue recycling can mitigate these asymmetries, requiring 40 to 68 per- cent of carbon-tax revenues to be directed toward financial-income tax relief. Monetary policy has limited influence on the overall redistributive pattern. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy , carbon pricing, intergenerational redistribution, overlapping generations, fiscal policy , New Keynesian model |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E52 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-11 |
| By: | Pearson, Lauren; de, Ana Luiza Santos Sa; Gerhard, Robyn; Abrahams, Jamie; Nosratzadeh, Hossein; Cumming, Toby; Beck, Ben |
| Abstract: | A sharp rise in fuel prices in March 2026 created a potential window for sustainable travel behaviour change in Australia. Yet who is positioned to change how they travel remains poorly understood. A population-representative online survey of 2, 177 Australian adults, conducted in April 2026, captured pre-crisis travel behaviour, mode shift considerations, and conditions supporting sustained change. Explainable machine learning (XGBoost, SHAP, supervised k-means clustering) identified amenable subgroups for walking, cycling, e-bikes, and public transport. Three quarters of respondents had changed or considered changing their travel behaviour. Walking was the most commonly adopted new mode (20%), and travel avoidance the most common adaptation (41%). Financial hardship and younger age were dominant predictors of amenability. Supervised clustering revealed three recurrent archetypes - financially pressured young adults, employed urban professionals, and regional residents lacking service access. Realising equitable sustainable travel outcomes requires transport systems offering affordable, safe alternatives to all population groups. |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hgx9d_v1 |
| By: | Chengjiu Sun (Nankai University); Shanshan Wang (Nankai University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of U.S. sanctions on food security using a panel of 185 economies over 1990-2017, linking the World Food Programme (WFP) multidimensional food security indicator system to sanction episodes. Using difference-in-differences identification strategy and an event-study design, we show that sanctions significantly reduce food security in target countries, widening the gap with non-sanctioned countries by about 30 percent. Effects are concentrated in food access and stability-key dimensions of household food affordability and resilience-and are primarily driven by trade and financial restrictions. Mechanism analysis indicates that sanctions operate through both supply and demand channels. On the supply side, they reduce food imports and domestic production. On the demand side, they lower income, raise inflation and unemployment, and weaken political stability. Notably, the sanction impacts are strongest in low- and lower-middle-income countries, where food systems are more vulnerable to external shocks. These results highlight substantial and uneven humanitarian costs of sanctions for food security. |
| Keywords: | Economic sanctions; Food security; Event Study; United States; Trade disruptions; Agricultural production; Developing countries |
| JEL: | F51 F14 O13 O19 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202612 |
| By: | Jong Duk Kim (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Gusang Kang (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Wonseok Choi (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Hyunjin Lee (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Jun Hyun Eom (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)); Boyeong Park (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 새로운 지식(혁신)의 창출 현황을 ‘국가-산업 간 네트워크’ 관점에서 살펴보고 ‘혁신 네트워크’ 참여의 경제적 함의에 대해 분석하였다. 지금까지 정책 입안자들은 기술을 발전시키고 혁신 역량을 강화하면서 의례히 자국의 R&D 투자 총액을 늘리는 데 집중해 왔다. 하지만 현대 사회에서 혁신은 한 국가, 산업 또는 기업의 자체적인 R&D만으로는 달성이 불가능하다. 한 국가 내에서뿐만 아니라 국경을 넘어 다른 나라에서의, 다른 산업에서의 혁신은 또 다른 국가로, 또 다른 산업으로 여러 경로를 통해 공유되고 전파되므로 이 점을 충분히 고려하여 정책을 만들어 나가야 한다. 특히 한국의 경우 네트워크의 중요성은 다시 한번 강조될 필요가 있다. This research project examines the current state of new knowledge creation from the perspective of global knowledge networks and analyzes the economic implications of participating in the so-called ‘innovation network.’ Policymakers have as a matter of course prioritized increasing their own country’s total R&D investment to advance technology and strengthen innovation. This research, however, asserts that in our current economic environment innovation cannot be achieved solely through the R&D of a single country, industry, or company. Policies must be formulated with the full understanding that innovation is shared and disseminated across borders—flowing from other countries and industries to new ones through various channels. For Korea, in particular, participating in these networks are critical. |
| Keywords: | Global Innovation Network;Trade Policy Directions;Technology cooperation;International trade |
| Date: | 2025–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:022535 |
| By: | Hyatt, Kyle |
| Abstract: | Public K–12 systems legally require children to attend a large number of instructional hours each year, but official budgets recognize only the cost of adult labor. This creates an accounting puzzle: is there any fiscal object that explicitly values student time? We propose a framework to quantify this fiscal nonrecognition. We define Compulsory Student Hours (CSH) as the total mandated student time, where CSH = Σᵢ EᵢHᵢwᵢ, Eᵢ is enrollment in group i, Hᵢ is required hours per year for group i, and wᵢ is a compulsion weight. We impute a dollar value, Imputed Student Time Value (ISTV), by multiplying CSH by an hourly benchmark V. We identify any actual Recognized Student-Time Dollars (RSD), defined as direct payments to students for required attendance, and compute the Student Time Recognition Rate (STRR), where STRR = RSD/ISTV. Using national data of approximately 49.2 million public K–12 students, roughly 1, 000 statutory hours per year, and a conservative federal minimum-wage benchmark of $7.25 per hour, the resulting ISTV is on the order of $3.57 × 10¹¹. In ordinary public finance there are effectively no direct student-time payments, yielding STRR ≈ 0. These are order-of-magnitude illustrations: if H = 1, 080 or V = $15, ISTV rises, but RSD remains approximately zero. The results highlight a stark asymmetry: schools’ budgets explicitly account for teacher and staff time, but institutionally required student time has virtually no direct fiscal counterpart. This is a descriptive accounting exercise, not a claim that students are owed wages or a policy proposal. The contribution is a neutral, replicable method for measuring the gap between adult labor accounting and student-time accounting in K–12 finance. |
| Date: | 2026–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:edarxi:942et_v1 |
| By: | Yong-Chan Choi (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology); Kyungmoo Heo (Dong-Ah Institute Of Media And Arts) |
| Abstract: | 미·중 간 기술 패권 경쟁이 지속되면서 미국 등 주요국은 핵심 과학기술 분야에서 자국 기술과 산업을 보호·육성하기 위한 전략을 강화하고 있다. 각국 정부는 연구개발 투자를 확대하는 동시에 기술 보호 및 육성을 위한 법·제도적 기반을 정비하고 있으며, 기술 경쟁력 확보뿐만 아니라 국가 안보와 산업 생태계 강화를 목표로 하고 있다. 주요 선진국들은 핵심 기술 분야의 발전을 지원하면서 불필요한 규제를 완화하고, 기술 보호를 위한 새로운 규제를 도입하는 등 정교한 정책 설계를 시도하고 있다. 이러한 규제 혁신 전략을 분석함으로써 선진국의 과학기술 발전 전략과 혁신 생태계 조성 방식, 산업 발전을 위한 정책적 접근법을 비교·분석할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 기존 연구에서 다루지 않았던 과학기술 분야별 규제 혁신 전략들에 대한 다면적 분석을 통해 빠른 속도로 변하고 있는 과학기술 분야 미래 규제 환경에 대한 우리의 효과적 대응 전략을 제시한다. As the competition for technological hegemony intensifies between the U.S. and China, major advanced countries around the world, including the U.S., are increasingly strengthening their strategies to protect and foster their technologies and industries in core science and technology fields. The governments of individual countries are expanding R&D investment, reorganizing legal and institutional foundations for technology protection and fostering, and aiming to strengthen national security and industrial ecosystems as well as securing technological competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | Regulatory Innovation;Science;Technology;Advanced Countries;Economic Security;Technology Cooperation |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepre:022543 |
| By: | Jeong Gon Kim (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | I. Gaps in Global AI Adoption<p> As artificial intelligence (AI) is shaping the global economy and society as a general-purpose technology (GPT), there is increasing concern that disparities in countries’ capacity to adopt AI may further widen. While AI holds significant potential to enhance productivity, foster economic growth, and expand trade, its benefits may become concentrated in a limited number of leading countries and firms due to the unequal distribution of technology, capital, talent, and data. In particular, many developing countries face structural constraints in adopting AI, primarily due to insufficient digital infrastructure, limited human capital, and underdeveloped institutional frameworks. Over the medium to long term, these constraints risk exacerbating global growth gaps and socioeconomic inequality. <p> We employ the IMF’s AI Preparedness Index (AIPI) to assess national AI adoption capacity by income group. As shown in Figure 1, there are substantial cross-national gaps in AI preparedness. High-income countries generally have foundations in regulation and ethics, digital infrastructure, human capital, and innovation. Upper-middle-income countries are heterogeneous as a group, but many are likely to have a strong willingness to accelerate innovation based upon a substantial level of human capital. For lower-middle- and low-income countries, improving digital infrastructure is an urgent priority while also treating development of human resources as a key policy consideration (see Figure 2). <p> These cross-country gaps are closely linked to differences in the level of progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. SDG indicators show a strong correlation with AIPI, suggesting that the achievement of the SDGs has a significant influence as a foundational condition for AI readiness (see Table 1). |
| Keywords: | AI divide between countries; AI for development |
| Date: | 2026–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022515 |
| By: | Rosenberg, Andrew |
| Abstract: | A growing literature documents racial hierarchy in international institutions. I test whether formally equal rules eliminate that hierarchy in practice. The Schengen visa regime offers a hard case because member states process applications under identical law. I show that ancestral distance, a measure of perceived racial difference, predicts visa refusals. Contemporary ancestral distance drives the result. A pre-1500 measure does not, consistent with the social construction of race. A consulate-level analysis isolates the discretionary channel. Busier consulates discriminate more against ancestrally distant applicants, even though a nationality's risk profile does not change with consular workload. Routine operational pressures activate the categorical shortcuts that institutional design was supposed to prevent. A further test shows the effect is stronger where national populations hold more restrictive racial attitudes, not where institutional capacity is weakest. Harmonized rules do not eliminate international institutional racism. They push it into discretionary gaps that formal law cannot close. |
| Date: | 2026–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:962sx_v1 |
| By: | Saif, Umar; Hasan, Amer; Tahir, Ayesha; Geven, Koen Martijn; Ali, Mohsen; Masood, Aliza; Abdul Rahman, Muhammad; Fazili, Sheena |
| Abstract: | According to administrative data, as many as 25 million children between the ages of 5 and 16 are out-of-school in Pakistan. However, little is known about where these children are in relation to available public and private schooling options. This paper brings together novel data from satellite imagery, the population census, government school censuses of public schools, and publicly available location data on private schools to understand the out-of-school phenomenon at the community level. The paper uses satellite imagery analysis and machine learning methods to present estimates of the accessibility of schools and to describe the whitespace between schools. The paper relies on administrative data from more than 137, 000 public schools and documents the existence of more than 72, 700 private schools using publicly available location data. The approach suggests that 21.7 million children (49 percent of the total) are enrolled in private schools, higher than previously reported official estimates. The paper also presents detailed data on how the out-of-school population, accessibility, and whitespace are distributed geo-spatially across Pakistan. As an application of the strength of using satellite imagery, it analyzes the effect of a major flood event in 2022 on accessibility, whitespace, and catchment areas. Doing so suggests that the 2022 floods affected the schooling of approximately 3.5 million children in Pakistan. Lastly, an in-person ground-truthing survey conducted about 18 months after the floods is used to corroborate the findings. Together, the data sets and methods presented in this paper have applications for both day-to-day monitoring of school infrastructure as well as pre- and post-disaster planning efforts in Pakistan and elsewhere. |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11341 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of societal aging on income inequality in Malaysia, to date and in the coming decades. The study starts from the hypothesis that, all things equal, aging exerts upward pressure on inequality (Deaton and Paxson (1994, 1995)). Drawing on nationally representative household survey data over the past two decades, the study finds evidence in support of this hypothesis in Malaysia. This picture becomes even sharper when projecting inequality levels for the years when Malaysia is forecast to reach aged (2045) and super-aged (2056) status. Estimates show that between 2022 and 2056, overall inequality of individual incomes could rise by as much as 13 percent due to aging. The analysis then demonstrates that expansion of a social pension system would attenuate this projected rise in inequality. The paper also undertakes counterfactual exercises simulating the expansion of an old age social pension with various design variants. The variants considered would expand existing social transfers for older people. Given the public revenue and spending patterns in Malaysia, some of these design options are potentially manageable from a fiscal perspective. The analysis suggests that, relative to the observed situation in 2022, wider coverage of social pensions could have resulted in lower inequality in household per capita income among older individuals (by 12–26 percent), thereby lowering overall inequality (by 4-9 percent). This inequality-reducing effect of social pensions becomes even more marked when projecting estimates of inequality for 2045 and 2056. Moreover, the findings show that expanded pensions would have resulted in a lower headcount poverty rate in 2022 by 1.3–4.2 percentage points among the 60+ population, and by 0.5–1.9 points among the overall population. |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11356 |
| By: | Saraceno Pier (European Commission - JRC); Fioretti Carlotta; Landucci Simone; Stavropoulos Eleftherios; Spalazzi Annalisa |
| Abstract: | This report presents an EU-wide stocktake of Integrated Territorial Development Strategies (ITDSs) implemented under Cohesion Policy 2021–2027, drawing on data from STRAT-Board, the JRC–DG REGIO platform monitoring integrated territorial approaches. The dataset covers 87 Managing Authorities, 110 programmes and 1, 426 strategies - around 70% of all ITDSs - representing the most comprehensive evidence available for this programming period. Integrated Territorial Development (ITD) accounts for EUR 41.3 billion (~11% of total EU Cohesion Policy contributions), with uptake varying considerably across Member States due to differences in governance systems, administrative capacity and strategic interpretation. Integrated Territorial Investment (ITI) is the most widely used delivery mechanism, followed by Other Territorial Tools (OTTs) and Community-led Local Development (CLLD). While Sustainable Urban Development (SUD) remains central, most strategies target small and medium-sized territories: 85% cover areas below 250, 000 inhabitants and nearly half focus on territories under 50, 000. Over half span mixed urban–rural geographies, reflecting the importance of functional territorial linkages. Financially, SUD strategies mobilise substantially higher per-capita investments than non-SUD strategies, which tend to support smaller-scale, community-oriented interventions. Thematic priorities concentrate on integrated territorial development, biodiversity, energy efficiency and sustainable mobility. Governance arrangements are generally formalised, though practices vary in strategy selection, project identification and monitoring. Overall, the findings highlight the growing importance and heterogeneous implementation of ITD, underscoring the need to strengthen local capacity and enhance place-based impact. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc145955 |
| By: | Chencen Guo (Institute for International and Area Studies (IIAS), Tsinghua University); Hong Ma (Department of Economics, Tsinghua University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of increased trade exposure to China on the Polish labor market during the period 2011–2019. Utilizing detailed industry-level data and an instrumental variable strategy based on trade flows from other Visegrad Group countries, we disentangle the impacts of import competition and access to imported intermediate inputs. We find that while import competition induced job losses in specific sectors, industries benefiting from access to Chinese intermediate inputs experienced substantial employment gains. Critically, this positive input channel effect was sufficient to offset the majority of displacement losses caused by import competition. Although manufacturing as a whole faced a slight net decline, the aggregate economy experienced net employment expansion. These results identify a “China Boost” driven by intermediate inputs, suggesting that Chinese imports act as strategic complements to domestic labor in Poland, contrasting sharply with the “China Shock” observed in the United States. |
| Keywords: | China shock, global value chain, intermediate input, Poland |
| JEL: | F14 F16 F66 P33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:117 |
| By: | HE, XIULEI |
| Abstract: | When population growth stalls and per capita consumption of physical goods approaches saturation, traditional supply-side growth models fail to explain the persistent slowdown in advanced economies. This paper introduces the concept of demand iteration speed, defined as the frequency with which a given product or service is repurchased per unit time, and embeds it into a national-accounting decomposition of consumption expenditure. The growth rate of consumption is shown to equal the sum of population growth, growth in per-transaction consumption volume, and growth in average iteration speed. This decomposition reveals that in the post-growth era, iteration speed becomes the decisive structural variable for economic growth, providing a unified lens to interpret the historical succession of growth engines from durable infrastructure to high-frequency digital services. We apply this framework to Hong Kong, a mature small open economy, and identify four high-iteration sectors that can support its long-term growth. |
| Keywords: | consumption frequency, demand iteration, economic growth, structural change, post-growth economy, Hong Kong |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129078 |
| By: | Devos, Louise (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University); Verhaeghe, Pieter-Paul (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) |
| Abstract: | While extensive empirical research documents discrimination in labour and housing markets, comparative insights between these markets remain limited. We address this gap by juxtaposing levels of discrimination across five legally protected grounds - race and ethnicity, sex and gender, health and disability, sexual orientation, and social origin - in both markets. We apply hierarchical Bayesian meta-regressions to global data from correspondence audit studies conducted from 2000 to 2024. In doing so, we account for the metadata’s multilevel structure, including study, group, location and time components. Our meta-analysis uncovers structural differences in discrimination, with racial and ethnic discrimination being greatest in the labour market and discrimination based on social origin being highest in the housing market. Frequentist robustness checks that address publication bias yield comparable findings. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, correspondence audits, meta-analysis, housing market, labour market |
| JEL: | J71 J15 J16 J14 R31 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18673 |
| By: | Tsiboe, Francis; Turner, Dylan; Arita, Shawn; Jore, Kyle; Chakravorty, Rwit; Meyer, Seth |
| Abstract: | The 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure drove fertilizer prices sharply higher, prompting a broad federal response focused on supply-side capacity, logistics, and producer income support. This paper examines the demand-side channel that has received less policy attention: the margin at which corn producers may reduce nitrogen fertilizer application rates in response to elevated input prices. The agronomic literature suggests reductions of 12 to 16 percent are feasible without measurable expected yield loss; this paper examines a more conservative 5 percent scenario. Two features of the Federal Crop Insurance Program, Good Farming Practices standards and the multi-year Actual Production History calculation, may create marginal friction for producers contemplating reduction under shock-price conditions, though neither is likely determinative relative to agronomic and weather considerations. Simulation results suggest a 5 percent reduction across insured corn acres would conserve roughly 300, 000 short tons of nitrogen, raise federal indemnities by approximately $0.10 billion, and leave approved insurance provider returns above the Standard Reinsurance Agreement target. The paper closes by asking whether existing FCIP mechanisms, GFP interpretation guidance, yield-modification provisions, and AIP make-whole arrangements, warrant further examination in the current price environment. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwp:402736 |
| By: | Raju, Sunitha; VC, Sabeer; Shah, Ninad |
| Abstract: | With India facing highest US reciprocal tariff of 50%, this paper estimates the Direct and Indirect effects of the tariff shock on Indian Textile industry. Using a CES demand model, we estimate the counterfactual demand under 50% and 25% tariff scenarios, structured into two stages. In the first stage, we quantify the tariff induced import changes of 656 textile products at HS 6-digit level and decompose into Direct Tariff effect and Third country tariff effect (Indirect). In the second stage, we quantify the transmission effect along the supply chain using I-O tables. Our analysis shows that US textile imports from India would decline by over US$ 6.6 billion under 50% tariff. Apparel and Made ups face the largest losses. Given the inter-industry linkages, first-order indirect effects are US$ 4.6 billion, including US$ 1.4 billion within the textile sector. Chemicals, agriculture, and trade services account for roughly 40% of these upstream losses. The alternative 25% tariff scenario results in a decline of US$ 2.1 billion in US textile imports, implying that the punitive tariff accounts for the additional US$ 4.5 billion. We conclude that India should negotiate for 25% or lower tariff and focus on alternate markets. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy, Tariffs, Indian textiles, Partial equilibrium, Supply chain |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F17 O24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128699 |
| By: | Gregory J. Martin; Shoshana Vasserman; Cameron Pfiffer |
| Abstract: | Using a novel dataset covering the complete history of individual-level web traffic and digital subscriptions from a major metropolitan newspaper in the United States between 2020 and 2024, we investigate consumers' willingness to pay for different categories of news content, with particular focus on the kinds of coverage believed to generate civic externalities. Our identification strategy relies on the quasi-random arrival of paywall events which force consumers to subscribe if they wish to continue reading. Using this variation, we estimate a model of consumer demand and construct the optimal staff allocation for the paper under different counterfactual revenue models: a fully subscription-based model and a fully ad-supported model. Our results suggest that readers are willing to pay for local reporting, and that measures of demand based only on time-use substantially underestimate the value of “hard” news coverage on topics like local politics and public health. However, digital subscription revenues alone are insufficient to cover staff costs even at the highest revenue-generating sections of the paper. We use our model to estimate the subsidy required to expand the newspaper's production of investigative coverage. |
| JEL: | L23 L82 P0 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35289 |
| By: | Ara Jo; Sébastien Houde |
| Abstract: | This paper disentangles the roles of within-firm improvement and between-firm selection and market reallocation in determining aggregate energy intensity. Our analysis shows that selection and market reallocation play a stronger role than within-firm improvement in driving aggregate declines in energy intensity, despite the strong focus on within-firm response to climate policy measures in the existing empirical literature. We also find that these mechanisms, in particular the selection channel, can be leveraged by environmental policy. |
| Keywords: | industry dynamics, energy intensity, decarbonization, environmental policy, manufacturing sector |
| JEL: | Q40 Q52 Q58 L50 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12695 |
| By: | Young-ook JANG (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | Korea now faces rapid demographic decline due to ultra‑low fertility and accelerated aging. According to Statistics Korea, the population peaked at 51.75 million in 2024 and is projected to fall below 40 million by 2065. This demographic contraction is expected to intensify labor market imbalances. <p> Several studies project widening labor shortages over the next 5–10 years. The Korea Employment Information Service (2025) suggests that the labor force will decline from 2030 and approximately 820, 000 more workers will be needed to fill the labor demand by 2033. The Korea Labor Institute (2024, 2025) also estimated that a shortage of 2.98 million workers (2024–2028) will expand to 6.18 million (2025–2033). The degree of labor shortages varies by sectors and regions. ICT services, healthcare and welfare, logistics, hospitality, and agriculture are the sectors that are exposed to the highest risk of labor shortages. Some provinces are already experiencing difficulties in hiring qualified workers due to declining population. <p> Apart from the demographic change, labor market imbalance is intensified by structural changes due to geopolitical and technological factors. Geopolitical factors—including strategic competition between the United States and China, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine war—have heightened global supply chain instability, prompting major economies to strengthen domestic and regional competitiveness in key advanced industries such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductors, and secondary batteries. This, combined with the decline in the economically active population across advanced economies, has exacerbated labor shortages in strategic high-tech sectors. In response, major countries are actively implementing policies to attract highly skilled foreign talent, which puts pressure on the supply of talent in Korea. <p> Labor shortages increase production costs, reduce corporate profitability, heighten inflationary pressures, and undermine potential economic growth. Attracting more foreign labor in both skilled and unskilled occupations is increasingly being considered as a potential response to labor market imbalances, particularly labor shortages. However, several challenges remain to be addressed. These include intensifying competition among advanced economies to attract talent, conflict between free-market principles and existing (often rigid) visa regimes, and the wide-ranging economic, social, cultural, and political consequences of immigration.<p> Resolving labor market imbalances is essential to sustaining long-term growth potential. Although foreign workers cannot fully offset aggregate labor shortages, they may be able to alleviate supply constraints in specific industries and skill categories. Promotion of labor mobility can be a plausible option as long as it is accompanied by policy measures to minimize associated side effects. <p> Jang et al. (2025) conducted two empirical analyses to estimate the effect of immigration on the labor market imbalances. First, the study examines the impact of the free labor movement in the EU on labor market imbalances. The EU is an early adopter of immigration and a supranational entity operating one of the most advanced and proactive immigration regimes. In particular, examining the effects of the EU’s flexible and inclusive immigration policies can provide meaningful policy implications for Korea. Second, the report analyzes Korea’s Employment Permit System (EPS) to assess the extent to which domestic policy measures have contributed to alleviating labor shortages. Noting the expansion of the EPS—a low-skilled labor inflow mechanism—during the post–COVID-19 recovery phase, the study quantitatively evaluates how effectively this policy has mitigated labor shortages across regions. <p> This brief will summarize the key methods and results of those analyses and derive policy implications from them. |
| Keywords: | Labor Market; Immigration Policies |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022505 |
| By: | Alexandre Pannier |
| Abstract: | We investigate integration by parts (IBP) formulae for stochastic Volterra equations and we establish the smoothing effect of the expectation. Due to the inherent path-dependent dynamics of this class of processes, standard Bismut--Elworthy--Li (BEL) formulae and lifting procedures fail to produce representations for directional derivatives with respect to the initial curve. We exhibit a new type of fractional IBP for these derivatives which, by means of the Riemann--Liouville fractional derivative, interpolates between the standard chain rule and a pure BEL formula with Cameron--Martin path directions. Our assumptions describe precisely the trade-off between the direction's and the test function's regularities. Crucially, we reveal that more roughness leads to more smoothing: for a power-law kernel with Hurst parameter $H\in(0, 1/2)$, we show that the expectation is differentiable along constant directions provided that the test function has H\"older continuity $\beta>2H$. The proof of the formula relies on a careful analysis of the conditional expectation's temporal regularity and on the well-posedness of its Riemann--Liouville derivative. We complement these results with a BEL formula along all square integrable directions whenever the noise is additive, a second order BEL formula and an application to forward and rough volatility models. In the latter case, the derivative is interpreted as the sensitivity with respect to the whole initial forward variance curve. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.30068 |
| By: | Kohn, David; Luttini, Emiliano Evaristo; Szkup, Michal; Zhang, Shengxing |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how relationship-specific learning affects the joint dynamics of exports and trade finance. Using micro-level Chilean data, it documents that new exporters initially rely on cash-in-advance payments and gradually transition to providing trade credit as relationships mature, with faster transitions in riskier destinations and for less experienced firms. Motivated by this, the paper develops a general equilibrium trade model that integrates learning about foreign demand and counterparty risk together with firms’ endogenous export and trade finance choices. The model is used to investigate the role of learning and risks in shaping export adjustments and quantify the impact of shocks to the cost of trade finance on aggregate exports. The analysis finds that the response to these shocks depends on the riskiness of the destination and is amplified by the disruption of long-term trading relationships. |
| Date: | 2026–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11381 |
| By: | Xiaohui Guo; Lizhong Peng; Chad Meyerhoefer |
| Abstract: | This is the first study to estimate the impact of sports gambling legalization on food sufficiency using the staggered implementation of state laws between 2021-2023. By analyzing Google searches for online sportsbooks and legal wagers, we show that interest in sports gambling increases sharply following legalization. Applying an imputation-based difference-in-differences design to biweekly Household Pulse Survey (HPS) data, we find that legalized sports gambling reduces household food sufficiency by 2.1 percent among working-age adults without a college degree, which translates to a 10.5 percent decline among active bettors. This effect is cyclical, persisting for three-to-five months during NFL seasons. Additionally, the declines in food sufficiency are larger among households with adults aged 25-44 and racial/ethnic minorities. Using additional data from the HPS, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Current Population Survey, our exploration of mechanisms suggests that the negative effects on food sufficiency operate through financial distress rather than changes in mental health or labor supply. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that legalization of sports gambling in nine states resulted in an additional 284, 000 food-insufficient households and $130.2 million in excess healthcare expenditures annually. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 I31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35305 |
| By: | Fakih, Ali (Lebanese American University); Kassab, Sara (Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gender pay gap among youth aged 15–29 in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine using the 2021 Labor Force Surveys. The analysis identifies the main determinants of wages for young men and women and estimates the extent of gender-based wage disparities. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is used to distinguish the share of the wage gap explained by observable characteristics from the unexplained component, often associated with discrimination. Melly’s quantile decomposition is applied from the 10th to the 90th percentile. The findings show that youth wages are positively associated with higher education and professional experience. A significant gender pay gap favoring young men is found in Egypt and Palestine, with Egypt showing the largest disparity. In Jordan, the average gap is small and statistically insignificant, with young women slightly out-earning young men. However, the decomposition results reveal a significant positive unexplained component across all three countries, suggesting persistent disparities after accounting for observable factors. The quantile analysis further shows a “sticky floor†effect in Egypt and a “glass ceiling†effect in Palestine. |
| Keywords: | gender pay gap, youth employment, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, wage quantile analysis |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J71 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18649 |