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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Asger Lau Andersen; Niels Johannesen; Jens Brøndum Petersen; Sonja Settele; Johannes Wohlfart |
| Abstract: | How do households respond when deposit rates drop below zero? Using administrative micro data and exploiting cross-bank variation in interest rate policies, we study a major episode of negative deposit rates in Denmark affecting two thirds of household deposits. We find that households strongly reduced deposit balances when exposed to negative deposit rates, allocating funds to stock portfolios and consumption. In a large-scale survey, we document important roles for loss aversion, perceived unfairness, intertemporal substitution and return considerations in driving these responses. Our findings suggest that monetary policy can have strong consumption effects in negative territory. |
| Keywords: | negative interest rates, households, consumption, monetary policy |
| JEL: | D14 D83 D84 D91 E21 E43 E52 E71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12732 |
| By: | Hersch, Joni (Vanderbilt University); Viscusi, W Kip (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | Internal investigations into allegations of workplace misconduct are undertaken on a confidential basis. But confidentiality cannot be assured. Investigated employees may be revealed by the investigation, including by word of mouth and by disclosure requirements to future potential employers. Based on an experiment fielded on a large nationally representative sample, this study provides the first evidence of direct employment harm to an employee from disclosure of an investigation for workplace misconduct or sexual harassment. Subjects express considerable opposition to a callback of applicants who were investigated for workplace misconduct, even when the investigation did not find misconduct. The findings add to the evidence documenting that any association with stigma harms employment prospects. |
| Keywords: | internal investigations, workplace misconduct, sexual harassment, pre-employment disclosures, hiring outcomes, allegations, stigma |
| JEL: | J01 J08 K00 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18690 |
| By: | Bence Bardóczy; Gideon Bornstein; Sergio Salgado |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how labor market power affects the transmission of monetary policy. Using administrative U.S. Census data, we show that firms with high monopsony power—defined as those accounting for over 10 percent of the local wage bill—respond less to monetary policy in terms of their wage bill and employment. We then develop a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous firms and oligopsonistic competition to interpret these findings. Wage stickiness combined with firms’ labor market power is key to generating the heterogeneous responses that we document. Our model highlights two channels through which oligopsony shapes the aggregate effects of monetary policy: partial passthrough and misallocation. Calibrated to U.S. labor markets, the model implies that the decline in labor market power since the 1980s has increased the output response to monetary policy by about 10 percent and accounts for about 15 percent of the estimated flattening of the Phillips curve. |
| JEL: | E0 E31 E52 J42 L13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35335 |
| By: | Dan Cao; Henry Hyatt; Toshihiko Mukoyama; Erick Sager |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported much more rapid growth in U.S. private sector employer establishments than has the Census Bureau– the gap reached roughly 1.6 million by 2023. Using linked BLS-Census microdata, we document two main drivers. First, a large and growing number of employers providing services to the elderly and persons with disabilities are in scope for the BLS frame but not the Census Bureau’s. Second, many firms appear with substantially more establishments in the BLS frame. These discrepancies substantially affect the measured establishment size distribution and quantitative policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | establishments, multi-unit firms, concentration |
| JEL: | E24 J21 L11 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-36 |
| By: | Eßer, Jana |
| Abstract: | Carbon pricing is a key policy tool for mitigating climate change by increasing prices and thereby reducing demand for carbon-intensive products and activities. However, be- havioral effects - such as crowding-in or -out of intrinsic motivation, moral licensing, or defiant behavior - can either amplify or weaken its standalone price effect. This study examines the behavioral effects of carbon pricing on the demand for fuel using a multiple price list approach in an incentivized online survey experiment, which was conducted in 2024 in Germany in a general population sample of 2, 600 participants. The findings sug- gest that carbon price salience crowds in intrinsic motivation on average compared to a situation in which carbon pricing is in place but less salient, reinforcing the price effect. In contrast, in certain subgroups this salience weakens the price effect and tends to even increase demand for fuel due to crowding-out of intrinsic motivation and moral licensing. |
| Abstract: | Die CO2-Bepreisung ist ein zentrales politisches Instrument zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels. Sie erhöht die Preise und senkt dadurch die Nachfrage nach CO2-intensiven Produkten und Aktivitäten. Verhaltensauswirkungen wie das Verdrängen oder Hervorrufen intrinsischer Motivation, moralische Lizenzierung oder Trotzreaktionen können jedoch den reinen Preiseffekt entweder verstärken oder abschwächen. In dieser Studie werden die Verhaltensauswirkungen der CO2-Bepreisung auf den Kraftstoffverbrauch untersucht. Dazu wurde ein Multiple-Price-List-Ansatz in einem incentivierten Online-Befragungsexperiment verwendet, das 2024 in Deutschland mit einer Stichprobe von 2.600 Teilnehmenden aus der Allgemeinbevölkerung durchgeführt wurde. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Sichtbarkeit des CO2-Preises im Durchschnitt die intrinsische Motivation verstärkt im Vergleich zu einer Situation, in der die CO2-Bepreisung zwar vorhanden, aber weniger sichtbar ist. Dies verstärkt den Preiseffekt. In bestimmten Untergruppen schwächt diese Sichtbarkeit jedoch den Preiseffekt und führt aufgrund der Verdrängung der intrinsischen Motivation und moralischer Lizenzierung tendenziell sogar zu einem Anstieg der Nachfrage nach Kraftstoff. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, willingness to pay, demand for fuel, motivation crowding, moral licensing |
| JEL: | C93 D01 D12 D91 Q41 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:341634 |
| By: | Jean-Michel Schweitzer (PErSEUs - Psychologie Ergonomique et Sociale pour l'Expérience utilisateurs - UL - Université de Lorraine); Benoit Langard (OPPBTP - Organisme professionnel de prévention du bâtiment et des travaux publics) |
| Abstract: | The status of temporary worker is unique. It involves a three-way relationship between an employee, an employer, and a user. Accidents are particularly prevalent for this type of employment and are slow to decrease. Our inquiry focuses on the causes of this prevalence. Drawing on fundamental knowledge, field experience, and a study in the construction sector, we demonstrate that specific prevention methods can be developed, tested, and then scaled up. These methods take into account the diversity of employment trajectories, user profiles, and employer profiles. This qualitative approach to prevention for temporary workers requires consolidating a common knowledge base for prevention stakeholders and supporting the evolution of their support methods. Ergonomics then plays a crucial role, both in generating knowledge about exposure and in developing appropriate prevention measures. |
| Abstract: | Le statut de salarié intérimaire est spécifique. Il renvoie à une relation tripartite entre un salarié, un employeur et un utilisateur. La sinistralité est particulièrement prévalente pour ce statut d'emploi, et peine à infléchir. Notre questionnement porte sur les causes de cette prévalence. A partir de connaissances fondamentales, d'accompagnements de terrains, d'une étude en secteur BTP, nous montrons que des modalités spécifiques de prévention peuvent être construites, expérimentées puis massifiées. Pour cela, elles doivent prendre en compte la diversité des trajectoires d'emploi, des profils utilisateurs et des profils employeurs. Cette approche qualitative de la prévention pour les salariés intérimaires implique de consolider un socle de connaissances commun aux acteurs de prévention, et de soutenir l'évolution de leurs modes d'accompagnement. L'ergonomie joue alors un rôle important, tant dans la fabrication des connaissances d'exposition, que dans les mesures de prévention adaptées. |
| Keywords: | salarié intérimaire, santé au travail, exposure pathway AI, prevention of occupational risks, occupational health, parcours d'exposition IA : non recours temporary worker, prévention des risques professionnels, salarié intérimaire santé au travail prévention des risques professionnels parcours d'exposition IA : non recours temporary worker occupational health prevention of occupational risks exposure pathway AI, parcours d’exposition |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05641215 |
| By: | Pina-Sánchez, Jose (University of Leeds); Tait, Caroline; Beecham, Roger; Zamora, Juan Fonseca |
| Abstract: | The risk of road collision for cyclists and pedestrians is higher in sprawls than in city centres. As a result of commuting, we also suspect that the higher risk of collision caused by residents from car-dependent sprawls is not confined to their own areas but disproportionately imposed on city dwellers. However, due to the absence of direct comparisons we do not know the specific road violence imposed by urban sprawls. This registered report will combine collision data from the Department for Transport and the Urban Grammar Spatial Signatures dataset that characterises geography by form and function to estimate the share of road violence induced by sprawls’ residents within and outside their localities, and relative to levels of road violence generated by city dwellers in England and Wales. Furthermore, using the subset of collisions data including contributory factors, we will provide a lower bound estimate regarding the share of collisions that could be classified as motoring offences. Drawing on these findings we will reassess the widely held beliefs of: i) sprawls as safer than city centres; ii) residents from urban sprawls are more law-abiding than city dwellers; and iii) crime prevention strategies that promote car-dependent developments as effective. |
| Date: | 2026–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:skcfr_v2 |
| By: | de Lint, Lotte Patricia (Wageningen University & Research); de Vries, Rachelle (Tilburg University); van Rookhuijzen, Wilhelmina Elisabeth Adriana Metje; Gort, Gerrit; de Vet, Emely |
| Abstract: | Supermarkets have a major influence on food purchases and thus represent a good starting point for shifting consumption toward plant-based options. In a field study within a Dutch discount supermarket chain (10 intervention, 10 control stores, 11 weeks), we evaluated the effect of two interventions that were each implemented during half of the weeks on animal- and plant-based purchasing. The Nudge (N) intervention reduced fresh meat visibility by moving promotional products from end-cap displays to regular shelf locations with standard-sized price tags, and modestly increased plant-based visibility through recipes and footstep cues. In the Nudge+ (N+) intervention condition, communication materials containing a reflective cue aimed at activating plant-based goals were additionally placed at store entrances and the fresh meat aisle. Results showed that within the fresh meat and meat replacement section, the ratio of plant- to animal-based protein sold by weight, as well as plant-based sales, did not change significantly under either intervention. However, animal-based protein sales by weight significantly decreased within this section (N:-4.75%, N+:-6.37%), with no significant difference between interventions. Outside this section, neither intervention had conclusive effects on (non-targeted) animal-based purchases, though trends suggested animal-based purchasing increased. No changes in total store revenue were detected. Most shoppers did not notice the interventions yet were positive or neutral when informed. A nudge that includes reducing meat's promotional visibility appears to be an effective strategy for decreasing animal-based purchasing in a real-world supermarket while preserving commercial performance and customer acceptance. |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ez7y3_v2 |
| By: | Ricardo Alonzo Fern\'andez Salguero |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a reproducible synthetic benchmark comparing a computational planner, an agent-based market, and a hybrid meta-market within a common simulated economy. The benchmark incorporates input-output production networks, heterogeneous firms, capacity constraints, endogenous prices, welfare metrics, structural shocks, adversarial stress testing, and information-reporting experiments. Across training, holdout, and adversarial scenarios, the planner consistently achieves lower welfare losses than the decentralized alternatives. The main contribution is methodological rather than ideological. While the benchmark demonstrates a falsifiable framework for comparing economic coordination mechanisms, it does not establish the empirical superiority of planning. Several design choices mechanically favor the planner, including informational asymmetries, incomplete market representation, and simplified institutional assumptions. The results should therefore be interpreted as validation of a synthetic experimental architecture and as a prototype for future research. The paper concludes by outlining a validation agenda based on empirical calibration, structural holdouts, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, mechanism-design tests, and independent replication. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.19214 |
| By: | Stefano Fasani; Giuseppe Pagano Giorgianni; Valeria Patella; Lorenza Rossi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of a belief distortion shock, an unexpected increase in the wedge between household and professional forecaster inflation expectations. Using survey and macro data alongside machine-learning techniques, we identify this shock and examine its effects within and outside the ZLB, while conditioning on the degree of inflation disagreement. The shock increases unemployment during normal times, whereas it reduces it in the ZLB, when the monetary stance is accommodative. Inflation disagreement instead dampens the expansionary effects of the shock. A New Keynesian model with belief distortion shocks replicates these dynamics and reproduces the inflation disagreement empirical patterns. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Belief Distortion Shock, Inflation Disagreement, Households Expectation, Machine Learning, Local Projections, New Keynesian model, Monetary Policy, ZLB |
| JEL: | E31 C22 D84 C32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ter:wpaper:00187 |
| By: | Muhammad Zia Hydari; Raja Iqbal |
| Abstract: | Agentic AI systems can behave differently across runs: the same request may produce a different plan, a different tool call, a different code edit, or a different final answer. Such variability arises from several layers that are often conflated. A foundation model is a large pretrained model, usually adaptable to many downstream tasks, that maps an input context to predictions over outputs. In many current agents, that model is embedded in an orchestration loop that plans, calls tools, observes results, and updates state. One explicit intrinsic source of variability in such systems is token generation: the model computes scores over possible next tokens, the scores are converted into probabilities, and a decoder may sample tokens using a pseudo-random number generator. A small sampled token difference can then propagate upward into a different tool call, code path, search query, or agent state. Other sources of variability are extrinsic to token sampling, including changing environments, live data, serving infrastructure, batch effects, and numerical details. By separating these layers, the manuscript clarifies what it means to call agentic AI systems stochastic, when such variability can be reproduced under matched conditions, and why deterministic execution need not imply identical behavior in deployed settings. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.08998 |
| By: | Clot, Sophie (EDHEC Business School); Della Giusta, Marina (University of Turin); Dubois, Florent (University of Turin); Razzu, Giovanni (University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | How can cooperation be sustained in socially heterogeneous settings when institutions explicitly emphasize inclusion and diversity? We study this question in four European cities. Participants face a repeated cooperation dilemma framed as an investment in a local urban amenity. We randomly vary whether the project is described as benefiting the general population or explicitly benefiting a locally relevant marginalized group. We find that inclusive framing has no effect on average contribution levels or beliefs about others’ behavior, however, we document substantial heterogeneity. Minority participants and women increase their contributions under inclusive framing, particularly in later stages of the game. Using the strategy method, we classify individuals into cooperative strategy profiles and show that inclusive framing primarily activates equality-oriented behavioural strategies. Analysis of strategy stability further indicates that inclusion reshapes behaviour within existing strategy profiles rather than inducing shifts across them. Overall, our results suggest that inclusive institutional design can preserve collective action while redistributing cooperative effort across identities and behavioural motivations. |
| Keywords: | Institutional framing; Diversity and Inclusion; Common-pool resources; Conditional cooperation; Field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 H41 D91 J14 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18714 |
| By: | Rafa{\l} Komendarczyk; Walter Block; John Levendis; Frank Tipler |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an axiomatization of Ludwig von Mises' praxeology in many-sorted first-order logic, isolating the foundational layer. We introduce a formal language with five sorts ({\sf Actors}, {\sf Actions}, {\sf Ends}, {\sf Things}, {\sf Times}) and six primitive relations ({\em Acts}, {\em Avail}, {\em EndOf}, {\em Use}, a preference order, and a time order), together with a base axiom system organised into three layers: the structure of action itself, the actor's preference order together with its revelation in choice, and material scarcity. The base system captures purposeful action in its bare praxeological form. Working entirely within the base system we derive the core classical Misesian propositions as Hilbert-style theorems: the asymmetry of revealed preference, the existence of opportunity cost, the structural scarcity of time, the subjectivity of opportunity cost, the law of diminishing marginal utility, and the increasing marginal disutility of labour. Where a theorem requires structure beyond the praxeological core -- as with diminishing marginal utility -- the additional premises are made explicit; identifying these hidden premises is one of the methodological payoffs of the approach. A self-contained {\em Lean} companion encodes the language as {\em Lean} type classes and constructs concrete models -- a three-period Robinson Crusoe economy and its infinite-time extension -- whose acceptance by the type-checker is a constructive consistency proof of the full base theory. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.18292 |
| By: | Loukas Karabarbounis |
| Abstract: | Micro estimates of the Marshallian elasticity of labor supply are small and typically positive, whereas cross-country and time-series patterns of hours imply a strong negative relationship between wages and hours. I reconcile these two apparently contradictory observations using a single utility specification and taking into account heterogeneity in non-labor income. Micro estimates condition on non-labor income, while macro variation allows capital income to adjust alongside labor income, which strengthens the income effect. A model with heterogeneous households and exogenous capital income yields closed-form expressions in which the distribution of the labor share shapes the gap between the micro and the macro elasticities. A cross-sectional regression of hours on wages that conditions on the labor share recovers the macro elasticity. A dynamic model with heterogeneous households and incomplete asset markets reproduces both elasticities as outcomes when disciplined by joint moments of wages, hours, consumption, and wealth. The income effects that bridge the gap between the two elasticities imply marginal propensities to earn that lie in the range of estimates of micro studies on lottery winners. |
| JEL: | E21 E24 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35329 |
| By: | Ruzic, Dimitrije |
| Abstract: | This paper reevaluates the longstanding debate on capital-labor substitution by examining the role of external inputs: raw materials, intermediate goods and services, imports, offshoring. Both a meta-analysis (analyzing existing estimates of substitution) and direct estimation (using U.S. data for 1963-2016) indicate that external inputs disproportionately displace labor. These findings imply (1) that the capital-labor ratio responds 40-80% more strongly to the price of labor than to the price of capital, (2) that value added cannot be modeled separably from gross output, and (3) that historical disagreements regarding substitution can be recast as an omitted variable bias involving external inputs. |
| Keywords: | Capital-labor substitution; Production; Trade; Non-separability; Intermediate inputs |
| JEL: | E23 F16 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21591 |
| By: | Hajime TADOKORO; Yuji HONJO |
| Abstract: | This study explores why Japan has produced relatively few unicorns compared with other advanced and emerging economies, despite strong entrepreneurial potential and abundant savings. It argues that the underdevelopment of Japan’s private equity markets constitutes a key structural bottleneck. We examine institutional causes and policy directions aimed at strengthening private equity markets and supporting high-growth firms. Drawing on experiences from the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, China, and the Republic of Korea, we conduct a comparative institutional analysis of core mechanisms for market-based equity financing: small public offerings, equity crowdfunding (ECF), and private placements, as well as secondary trading. Our analysis identifies structural regulatory constraints that raise entry barriers for issuers and limit investor participation in Japan. Based on these findings, we identify institutional issues that are currently lacking, including simplified disclosure frameworks, higher and tiered thresholds for small public offerings, flexible regimes for ECF, modernized rules for private placements and secondary trading, and the expansion of the scope of qualified investors, as well as digitized capital-raising processes. These measures would lower entry barriers, broaden investment opportunities, and improve risk capital allocation, while maintaining market-based investor protection. By fostering vibrant private equity markets, Japan can mobilize idle capital, stimulate entrepreneurship, and enhance competitiveness, thereby supporting innovation-driven economic growth and increasing the likelihood of more unicorns emerging. This study underscores the central role of institutional design in shaping entrepreneurial finance and offers policy-relevant insights for economies seeking to transition toward innovation-driven growth supported by vibrant private equity markets. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26051 |
| By: | Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Galenianos, Manolēs; Giannakopoulos, Nicholas; Kammas, Pantelis; Laliotis, Ioannis |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the evolution of labor earnings and earnings dynamics in Greece during 2002-2023 using administrative matched employer-employee data from the Greek social security system. The data span the expansion of the 2000s, the deep recession of 2009-2013, and the subsequent recovery. We show that earnings, volatility, and inequality closely tracked macroeconomic conditions. Real earnings rose during the pre-crisis expansion, declined sharply during the recession (particularly among lower earners) and only partially recovered afterward. Earnings volatility and downside risk increased substantially during the crisis, while inequality rose both in the cross-section and within cohorts. Workers entering the labor market during the recession experienced unusually weak initial earnings and persistently lower subsequent earnings. Using regional variation in unemployment rates, we show that weaker local labor-market conditions at entry are associated with lower early-career earnings. |
| Keywords: | Labor earnings, Inequality, Volatility, Mobility, Administrative data, Greece |
| JEL: | J30 D31 C55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:341413 |
| By: | Jinyong Hahn; Niu He; Zhipeng Liao; Wenyu Zhou |
| Abstract: | We develop an estimation and inference framework for granular instrumental variables (GIVs) in models with latent aggregate shocks. Our key insight is that valid GIVs are characterized by the orthogonal complement of the factor-loading space. This characterization yields a feasible procedure for constructing GIVs when factor loadings are unknown and does not require a large cross-sectional dimension. We provide practical procedures for inference and specification testing, and apply the framework to estimate the aggregate equity market multiplier. Our empirical results reveal substantial heterogeneity in equity demand elasticities across investor sectors and may provide nuanced support for the inelastic-markets hypothesis. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.14057 |
| By: | Laliberté, Jean-William (University of Calgary); Whalley, Alexander (University of Calgary) |
| Abstract: | We use matched parent-child-employer-employee data from Canada, linked to detailed educational records, to quantify the contribution of social connections to employers to intergenerational income mobility. Sorting across employers accounts for roughly a third of the transmission of income across generations. To estimate the impact of social connections on differential representation across employers, we compare classmates -- those with the same degree from the same institution -- who have different social connections. We find social connections in the labor market explain about 15% of the firm-sorting component of the intergenerational income rank-rank relationship, about a third the explanatory power of education. |
| Keywords: | social connections, intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J62 J31 J24 L25 E24 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18691 |
| By: | Emediegwu Lotanna; Rogna Marco (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climatic event with important con- sequences for agricultural production. Several studies have investigated its impact on yields considering different crops and varying spatial scales. However, less attention has been paid to its effects on food prices. The present paper tries to fill this gap through a global analysis of the effect of ENSO shocks, divided into its main events, namely El Niño and La Niña, on the retail prices of several food commodities and crops. To achieve this, a large panel dataset of monthly retail market prices combined with climatic indexes envisaged to capture ENSO shocks has been analysed by adopting the local projection methodology. Impulse response functions spanning till one year after a shock are adopted to interpret the results. The impact of ENSO shocks on food prices varies considerably according to the event, the region under consideration, and the same food item. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:eapoaf:202603-2 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri (Dept. of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business); Angelos Alamanos; Giannis Arampatzidis; Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Dimitris Raptis; Anna Triantafyllidou |
| Abstract: | Crises such as rapid population and demand growth, droughts, resource availability fluctuations, and supply-chain disruptions increasingly expose hidden fragilities in socio-technical systems. At the same time, they generate political momentum and practical urgency for institutional and governance innovation, as emergency measures often become prototypes for routine practice. This paper develops a national-scale, multi-sector water-energy-emissions (W-E-E) scenario model for Rwanda and uses it to test how demand growth, hydrological stress, and supply-side choices jointly shape future energy security and emissions trajectories through 2050. The analysis shows that, under SSP2 and especially SSP5 growth conditions, emissions remain strongly demand-driven; therefore, even ambitious demand-side and supply-side measures are best interpreted as pathways that moderate, rather than fully reverse, emissions growth. The contribution of the study is to identify which combinations of efficiency, electrification, renewable deployment, thermal retirement, and hydrological risk management most effectively reduce system stress and improve resilience under compound crises. |
| Keywords: | Water-energy-emissions nexus, Multi-crisis scenario analysis, LEAP, Hydropower, Energy system resilience, Droughts, Rwanda |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2618 |
| By: | Motta, Victor |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between the Financial Health Index of Brazilians (Índice de Saúde Financeira do Brasileiro, I-SFB) and credit behavior, focusing on two central questions: (1) how different levels of financial health relate to the likelihood of delinquency, and (2) how transitions between stages of late payments and delinquency vary according to the financial health levels measured by the I-SFB. The results reveal a significant association between higher I-SFB scores and a lower likelihood of delinquency, with the financial behavior and financial security dimensions showing the strongest link to reduced risk. The study also highlights potential improvements to the financial skills dimension, which showed no significant relationship with delinquency. A revision of the items comprising this dimension is put forth, incorporating more practical aspects of financial knowledge application. For the private sector, the study proposes using the I-SFB as a diagnostic tool to develop new financial products that are better aligned with the population’s needs, thereby fostering more robust financial health. The implementation of integrated strategies, combining behavioral interventions, practical financial education, and consumer protection policies, is essential to achieve more sustainable outcomes. |
| Keywords: | financial health, default rate, public policy, financial inclusion |
| JEL: | D14 G21 I19 |
| Date: | 2025–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128990 |
| By: | Hinz, Julian; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | A "Ukraine Support Tariff" on the remaining €57.2 billion in EU-Russia trade could generate €6-16 billion per year at moderate rates of 30-50% (partial equilibrium) and €3-11 billion (general equilibrium) - exceeding the €3 billion from frozen Russian asset interest income. General equilibrium simulations confirm that Europe has asymmetric leverage over Russia: Russia's value added falls 3-4 times more than the EU's, making the tariff sustainable as long-term leverage. Trade diversion to China is modest. Extreme tariff rates (300%+) are counterproductive, as long-run revenue falls to near zero. Economically, we analyse a combined import tariff and export-side levy on remaining EU-Russia trade. Institutionally, the import leg is more straightforward under EU trade law, while the export leg is less straightforward and would likely require a distinct legal route. That asymmetry matters for implementation, but not for the economic logic of the combined proposal. |
| Abstract: | Ein "'Ukraine-Unterstützungszoll"' auf den verbleibenden EU-Russland-Handel von knapp €60 Mrd. pro Jahr könnte bei Zollsätzen von 30-50% jährlich €6-16 Mrd. (partielles Gleichgewicht) bzw. €3-11 Mrd. (allgemeines Gleichgewicht) erbringen - mehr als die €3 Mrd. aus den Zinserträgen eingefrorener russischer Vermögenswerte Allgemeine Gleichgewichtssimulationen zeigen asymmetrische Kosten: Russlands-Wertschöpfung sinkt erheblich; das Instrument ist als langfristiges Druckmittel tragfähig. Handelsumlenkung nach China bleibt begrenzt. Extreme Sätze (300%+) sind kontraproduktiv. In diesem Papier analysieren wir ein kombiniertes Paket aus Importzöllen und Exportabgaben auf den verbleibenden EU-Russland-Handel. Institutionell ist die Importseite unter dem EU-Handelsrecht unkomplizierter, während die Exportseite rechtlich anspruchsvoller ist und voraussichtlich eine eigene rechtliche Ausgestaltung erfordert. An der ökonomischen Logik des kombinierten Vorschlags ändert diese Asymmetrie nichts - wohl aber an der Umsetzung. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine Support Tariff, EU-Russia Trade, Tariff Revenue, Laffer Curve, General Equilibrium, Ukraine-Unterstützungszoll, EU-Russland-Handel, Zolleinnahmen, Laffer-Kurve, Allgemeines Gleichgewicht |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:341425 |
| By: | Luis Rodrigo Asturias Schaub; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the long-memory properties of sovereign bond spreads in 17 Latin American countries as well as two regional aggregates using daily EMBI (Emerging Markets Bond Index) data from April 2013 to January 2026 (3, 163 observations per series). Parametric methods show that all 19 series are characterized by fractional integration with estimated orders ranging from 0.97 (Uruguay) to 1.22 (Honduras) for the log-transformed spreads. Nine series have confidence bounds above unity, indicating that shocks have permanent effects; under autocorrelated errors (as in the Bloomfield model), Uruguay is the only country whose series exhibits mean reversion (as the confidence bands for the fractional parameter are below unity). The results are robust to making different assumptions about the error terms (white noise or autocorrelation) and to allowing for non-linear deterministic trends. |
| Keywords: | long memory, fractional integration, EMBI (Emerging Markets Bond Index), sovereign spreads, Latin America |
| JEL: | C22 F34 G15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12731 |
| By: | Fan Zhang; Zhen Li; Sijia Peng; Yu Chen |
| Abstract: | We introduce When Alpha Disappears, a paired evaluation benchmark for diagnosing decision-time leakage in financial machine-learning backtests. Rather than treating leakage as a binary property, the benchmark estimates protocol-induced inflation by toggling one evaluation convention at a time around a clean $t{+}1$-open reference, while holding the data panel, walk-forward split, model family, horizon, portfolio rule, and cost convention fixed. Across two daily-OHLCV equity panels, six model families, and yearly tests from 2016--2024, we find that inflation is highly selective: centered temporal features and same-day-open execution with post-open daily-bar information cause large and stable increases in both predictive and trading metrics, whereas global normalization, future-informed graph structure, and same-day-close execution are weak in most settings. The benchmark is diagnostic rather than a claim of tradable alpha, and is intended to make evaluation assumptions, failure modes, and protocol fragility directly measurable. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.23959 |
| By: | Roy Sarkis |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the macroeconomic dynamics of climate policy in a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with renewable and non-renewable energy, sector-specific capital adjustment frictions, household energy demand, and endogenous fossil resource dynamics. The central mechanism is that decarbonization requires reallocating energy use and installed capital: fossil energy demand can contract immediately, while renewable capacity and abatement adjust only gradually. The analysis delivers four results. First, gradual policy implementation sharply reduces transition costs: relative to immediate implementation, gradual emissions caps improve welfare by 2.26 percentage points under comprehensive regulation and by 5.06 percentage points under firm-only regulation. Second, renewable energy subsidies and non-renewable energy taxes support renewable capital accumulation and reduce, but do not eliminate, the welfare cost of front-loaded tightening. Third, sectoral coverage changes the welfare ranking across implementation speeds. Firm-only regulation performs better under gradual implementation because it shields utility-relevant household energy services, but becomes nearly as costly as the carbon-price-only transition under immediate implementation. Fourth, endogenous fossil exploration and stock-dependent extraction costs transmit climate policy into lower extraction, fewer discoveries, and a declining shadow value of reserves, providing a structural mechanism for stranded fossil assets. The results show that deep decarbonization can be achieved at substantially lower macroeconomic cost when policy manages the speed and incidence of energy-capital reallocation. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.18994 |
| By: | Alessandro Doldi; Marco Frittelli; Marco Maggis |
| Abstract: | This paper complements and extends Doldi, Frittelli and Maggis, Collective completeness and pricing-hedging duality, Math. Finan. Econ. 19, 757-784 (2025), by studying collective pricing and hedging when admissible risk exchanges form a finitely generated convex cone. The collective First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the collective pricing-hedging duality are extended to this setting. A key contribution is a closedness result showing that no collective arbitrage implies the closedness of the aggregate feasibility cone combining infinite-dimensional trading opportunities with finite-dimensional exchanges. The paper also proves that no-collective-arbitrage prices for vectors of contingent claims form a relatively open convex set. Finally, strong collective replicability is introduced and shown to be equivalent to price uniqueness. This leads to an enhanced collective Second Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, providing equivalent characterizations of collective completeness and strong collective completeness in terms of the uniqueness of the collective equivalent martingale measure. We highlight that several core aspects of the theory are substantially altered when exchanges belong to a convex cone rather than a vector space. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.19038 |
| By: | Mike Djesa (Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the macroeconomic drivers of corporate investment in the United Kingdom using a multivariate time-series framework. Focusing on five key variables-interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, exchange rates, and corporate profits-the analysis investigates their combined effects on aggregate corporate investment using annual data from 1990 to 2022. By concentrating on macroeconomic determinants rather than firm-level factors, the study provides evidence on how monetary and real-sector conditions shape investment behavior in a mature, market-based economy. The contribution of this study lies in integrating long-run macroeconomic trends within a multivariate econometric framework that captures interactions between corporate profits, inflation, and exchange-rate movements in the UK over three decades of evolving policy regimes. Given the mixed order of integration among the variables, the study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine long-run relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics. OLS and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimates are retained as benchmark and robustness checks. The results indicate that higher interest rates exert a significant positive effect on corporate investment, consistent with the endogenous and pro-cyclical nature of UK monetary policy. Corporate profits have a strong positive influence, highlighting the importance of internal finance. Inflation exhibits a negative and significant impact, while GDP growth shows a weak accelerator effect and exchange-rate movements are statistically insignificant. These findings underscore the dominance of profitability and policy credibility in driving UK investment and offer relevant insights for sustaining long-term capital formation. |
| Keywords: | corporate investment, United Kingdom, monetary policy, interest rates, inflation, exchange rate, corporate profits, ARDL bounds testing, 2SLS |
| JEL: | E22 E52 G31 |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:03_2026 |
| By: | Olivetti, Leonardo; Messori, Gabriele; Avner, Paolo; Hallegatte, Stephane |
| Abstract: | Assessing the real-world economic value of weather forecasts remains challenging, particularly in the context of high-impact extreme events. Although meteorological skill has improved substantially in recent years—driven by steady advances in physics-based models and impressive breakthroughs in artificial intelligence-based forecasting—operational evaluations still focus primarily on standard skill metrics, with limited consideration of how improvements in meteorological skill translate into economic value. This study proposes a flexible framework to assess the economic value of weather forecasts, with penalty functions that explicitly account for compounding losses as well as declining user trust in cases of repeated false alarms. In addition, the framework allows for varying cost—loss ratios to represent heterogeneous prevention costs and vulnerability structures. The framework is applied to cities exposed to weather-related natural hazards, comparing the relative economic value of leading physics-based and data-driven forecasting systems from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The value of forecasts is highly sensitive to assumptions about compounding losses, penalty structures, and prevention costs, which often substantially alter conclusions drawn from meteorological skill alone. For instance, in some cities in Southern Europe, the higher sensitivity of the physics-based Integrated Forecast System high-resolution model (IFS HRES) makes it better suited when protection costs are small relative to potential losses, while the higher specificity of the data-driven Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) makes it better when protection costs are higher. These findings underscore the importance of evaluating economic value under realistic risk scenarios to ensure that improvements in predictive accuracy translate into meaningful societal and economic benefits. |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11407 |
| By: | de Hoyos, Rafael; Munteanu, Andrei; Pop-Eleches, Cristian |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the impact of the Romania Secondary Education Project, which was designed to improve student retention, graduation rates and pass rates on a national end-of-high-school exam for low-achievement high schools in Romania. The program was implemented in three waves, September 2017, September 2018, and September 2020, with eligible high schools randomly assigned to each. The study exploits this staggered implementation to measure the project’s causal impacts on students. The estimates indicate that the Romania Secondary Education Project had no significant impact on (i) student preferences for attending a program high school, (ii) student retention rates, (iii) high school graduation rates, (iv) enrollment in the post-high school baccalaureate exam, (v) baccalaureate exam pass rates, or (vi) baccalaureate exam scores. There was a small increase in girls’ passing rates (3 percentage points). However, there was little heterogeneity in the null effects by grant size, urban-rural status, student achievement levels, town income levels, and type of curriculum taught. |
| Date: | 2026–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11408 |
| By: | Philipp Schmocker; Josef Teichmann |
| Abstract: | We generalize the universal approximation theorem for functional input neural networks (FNN) to differentiable maps by including the approximation of the derivatives. A FNN maps the input from a possibly infinite-dimensional weighted manifold to the real-valued hidden layer, on which a non-linear scalar activation function is applied, and then returns the output into a Banach space via some linear readouts. By proving a weighted Nachbin theorem, we establish a universal approximation theorem (UAT) for differentiable maps, which goes beyond the usual formulation on compact sets and also includes the approximation of the derivatives. This leads us to approximation results for non-anticipative functionals including the horizontal and vertical derivatives. As a further application, we show that linear functions of the signature are able to approximate path space functionals including their directional derivatives. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.09820 |
| By: | Pawlak, Julian |
| Abstract: | Russlands sogenannte Schattenflotte dient in erster Linie der Sanktionsumgehung für den Ölexport und damit der Finanzierung seines Angriffskrieges gegen die Ukraine. Sie stellt jedoch vermehrt auch ein verteidigungsrelevantes Sicherheitsrisiko für Europa dar. Schiffe der Schattenflotte werden zunehmend mit Spionage- und Sabotageakten in Verbindung gebracht, sie bedrohen deutsche und europäische Sicherheit und die maritime Umwelt. Die Bundesregierung sollte gemeinsam mit ihren Partnern einen systematischen Ansatz verfolgen, um wirksam gegen die Schattenflotte vorzugehen. Ziel ist es, Sanktionsregime aufrechtzuerhalten, die maritime Sicherheit zu gewährleisten und verteidigungsrelevante Bedrohungen einzudämmen. |
| Keywords: | Schattenflotte, Russland, Schattenflotte, Ölexport, Sanktionsumgehung, Kriegsfinanzierung, Spionage, Sabotage, hybride Kriegsführung, Sanktionen, maritime Sicherheit, maritime kritische Infrastruktur, Umweltrisiken |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:341370 |
| By: | Arpita Khanna (Asia Competitiveness Institute, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore); Tomoki Fujii (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | The Covid pandemic dramatically altered patterns of daily life, particularly through widespread declines in mobility due to lockdowns and social distancing measures. While the economic and epidemiological effects of these restrictions have been widely studied, their broader health implications remain underexplored. This paper investigates the relationship between mobility decline during the Covid pandemic and hypertension outcomes in India. Leveraging district-level variation in mobility from Google Community Mobility Reports and health data from the 2019–2021 Indian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), we find that a 1 percentage point reduction in mobility over the 30 days prior to interview is associated with a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of having normal blood pressure. The effect is driven by increases in pre-hypertensive and mildly elevated blood pressure, with no significant changes in more severe hypertension. We examine potential mechanisms—healthcare access, stress (proxied by alcohol use), and reduced physical activity—and find limited explanatory power for the former two. These findings suggest that reduced physical mobility likely played a key role in worsening cardiovascular risk profiles. The results underscore the importance of integrating chronic disease considerations into the design of mobility-restricting public health interventions. |
| Date: | 2025–12–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:022911 |
| By: | Charles Figuières (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | Standard models of international trade treat factor endowments as exogenous and stable. This paper argues that biological invasions induced by trade itself erode productive endowments, generating a feedback loop from comparative advantage to invasive species pressure and back. We call this mechanism the biological endowment curse : the very endowment that confers comparative advantage in agriculture raises the exposure to invasion, which in turn degrades the endowment. This dynamic cost of trade has been largely absent from the received theory of comparative advantage. We formalise this idea in two steps. First, in a single-country model with Cobb-Douglas endowment dynamics, we establish the existence and global stability of a long-run equilibrium and show that the equilibrium healthy endowment decreases with import pressure and with ecological fragility. Second, in a two-country discrete-time game, we derive closed-form expressions for the Markov Perfect Nash equilibrium and the cooperative solution. Both countries under-invest in biosecurity at Nash, and the under-investment gap is larger for countries with stronger regeneration capacity and greater commercial interdependence. We then characterise the optimal international agreement, modelled as a Nash equilibrium in trigger strategies. A key structural result is that the incentive compatibility constraint reduces to a purely parametric condition, independent of the current state of endowments. When the pure trigger fails, trade linkage can restore viability. Finally, policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Sanitary and Phytosanitary SPS agreements; Biosecurity; Levhari-Mirman; Differential game; Biological endowment curse; Comparative advantage; Factor endowments; Invasive species |
| JEL: | C73 F11 Q17 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2616 |
| By: | Mark Toth |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how the spatial structure of housing affects monetary policy transmission. I integrate spatial structure into a monetary business cycle model with housing. Spatial structure matters economically through households’ location prefer ences and residential externalities. These two features are reflected in two measures of residential concentration. Higher residential concentration dampens consumption responses to interest rate changes through housing demand. In an empirical analysis, I create model-consistent measures of residential concentration for US and Eurozone regions, using geospatial data based on satellite imagery. I empirically validate the model’s predictions in a state-dependent local projections framework. My paper identifies residential concentration as a fundamental determinant of monetary policy transmission. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, business cycle, spatial, housing demand. |
| JEL: | E32 E52 R12 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_762 |
| By: | Delphine Minchella (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Gisele de Campos Ribeiro (PSB - Paris School of Business - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université) |
| Abstract: | Alors qu'il peut être de plus en plus difficile de recruter certains profils, la localisation fait partie des critères de choix. Mais du point de vue des salariés, une bonne localisation ne se réduit pas à la minimisation du temps de transport entre le domicile et le travail. Focus sur les différentes dimensions de la localisation et ses variations d'un pays à l'autre de l'Europe. |
| Keywords: | Management, Entreprises, Ressources humaines (RH), Bureau |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05620878 |
| By: | Huebener, Mathias (Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB)); Mahlbacher, Malin (Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB)); Schmitz, Sophia (Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB)) |
| Abstract: | We study how expansions of publicly subsidized childcare affect the intra-household allocation of labor supply in early childhood, with a particular focus on fathers. Exploiting variation in the roll-out of childcare places for children under three across German counties, we show that increased availability accelerates childcare entry and maternal return to work. Fathers also adjust their labor supply: they take more parental leave and subsequently reduce full-time work, yet without significantly increasing weekday caregiving. These findings imply that childcare policies can reshape labor supply within households, leading to smaller aggregate labor supply effects than suggested by maternal responses alone. |
| Keywords: | public childcare, family policies, parental leave, paternal labor supply |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J18 J22 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18696 |
| By: | Yoko Okuyama; Takeshi Murooka; Shintaro Yamaguchi |
| Abstract: | We estimate the child penalty using detailed personnel records that allow decomposition into distinct pay components. The penalty initially arises from reductions in time-based pay after childbirth. Over time, job-rank-based pay becomes increasingly significant. These effects are interconnected: reduced working hours lead to lower performance evaluations, which subsequently limit promotion opportunities. Our model demonstrates that current promotion practices, which reward extended hours at entry-level positions, can generate production inefficiency. This finding suggests that addressing promotion practices could simultaneously reduce gender inequality and improve talent allocation, making a business case for organizational reform. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1314 |
| By: | Elton Beqiraj; Milos Ciganovic; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo; Paolo D'Imperio; Cristian Tegami |
| Abstract: | We estimate state-dependent government-spending multipliers for Italy using quarterly local projections over 1961-2019. The paper asks which notion of slack matters for fiscal transmission, distinguishing short-run GDP-growth regimes from persistent labour-market slack measured by the unemployment gap. Recession multipliers are large in point estimates, peaking around 1.4, but the recession-expansion difference is not statistically significant. By contrast, labour-market slack-state multipliers rise above one at medium horizons, and the slack-tight difference becomes significant from the two-year horizon onward. Robustness checks preserve the ranking of the state-specific multipliers, although inference depends on how slack is measured. The results suggest that Italian fiscal state dependence is identified more clearly through labour-market underutilisation than through GDP-growth regimes. More generally, "bad times" are not interchangeable empirical states: the measurement of slack is central for inference on fiscal multipliers. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, state-dependent multipliers, local projections |
| JEL: | E62 E32 C32 H30 E65 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ter:wpaper:00203 |
| By: | Chowdhry, Sonali; Erhardt, Katharina; Hinz, Julian |
| Abstract: | * China's export growth is increasingly concentrated in advanced manufacturing sectors. Over the past two decades, China has expanded its presence not only in traditional industries but also in capital- and technology-intensive products, bringing it into direct competition with advanced economies in sectors where they have long specialized. * Advanced economies have lost market share to China in third markets. Across a wide range of industries, China's gains in market share have been mirrored by losses among advanced economies. The strongest effects are observed in relatively complex manufacturing sectors such as machinery, vehicles, chemicals, and other technology-intensive products. * The impact of Chinese competition differs substantially across countries. Some advanced economies have adapted more successfully to China's rise than others. While Germany, Japan, France, and the United Kingdom experienced significant losses in third markets, countries such as South Korea, Switzerland and the United States have maintained or even improved their position relative to other non-Chinese exporters even as they lose market shares in absolute terms to China's growth. * China's export expansion alone cannot explain all observed losses. For many advanced economies, actual market share declines exceed what would be expected from China's export growth alone. This suggests that part of the deterioration reflects a loss of competitiveness relative to other exporters rather than displacement by China alone. * Germany stands out as particularly exposed. Germany's export structure overlaps strongly with China's and it experienced some of the largest absolute losses in third markets. However, only around one-third of Germany's market share decline can be mechanically attributed to China's expansion, indicating that domestic and European competitiveness challenges also play an important role. |
| Keywords: | China, export competition, third markets, China, Exportwettbewerb, Drittmärkte |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:341641 |
| By: | Clara Inghels (LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes univ - UFR ST - Nantes université - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, Naval Group, LS2N - équipe CPS3 - Conception, Pilotage, Surveillance et Supervision des systèmes - LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes univ - UFR ST - Nantes université - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Audrey Duclos (Naval Group); Clément Beghin (Naval Group); Olivier Gorgé (IRBA - Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées [Brétigny-sur-Orge]); Catherine da Cunha (LS2N - équipe CPS3 - Conception, Pilotage, Surveillance et Supervision des systèmes - LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes univ - UFR ST - Nantes université - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Emmanuelle Billon-Denis (DGA Maîtrise NRBC, 91710 Vert-le-Petit) |
| Abstract: | The spread of infectious diseases aboard naval vessels can have significant impacts on crew availability and operational continuity due to the closed and poorly ventilated environment of naval vessels. It is therefore essential to assess, analyze, and mitigate this risk, from the conception stage, using tools that model the spread of infectious diseases on board, their impacts on the mission carried by the vessel, and the effects of potential solutions implemented. To this end, a decision-support tool simulating the impact of selected biological risks [1][2] has been developed using a method that combines different types of modeling used in mathematical epidemiology [3]. Simulations show how the epidemic spreads according to the crew behaviors and the architecture of the vessels. The tool thus created was validated by comparing the tool's results with actual epidemiological data from a well-documented case study [4]. The tool's results describe performance indicators for the biological resilience of vessels. They are intended for operational staff, architects, and decision-makers to assess and mitigate biological risks on board naval vessels to ensure crew availability and mission continuity. Indicators provide information on: 1. The most at-risk rooms (through the count of new infections per room) to define priorities for the allocation of countermeasures; 2. The rate of air contamination per room by monitoring infectious particles in the air to assess ventilation systems; 3. The percentage of crew members infected simultaneously, by monitoring their health status, enabling the establishment of rules triggering the implementation of organizational countermeasures before transmission explodes and the crew is lost by infection. This poster focuses on the exploitation of these indicators and the potential applications of the tool. It reports on the potential of the decision-making tool for parties involved in the design and integration of solutions for vessels. |
| Keywords: | Computational fluid dynamics, indoor, Agent-based modeling, Disease transmission |
| Date: | 2026–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05646011 |
| By: | Aoxin Zhang; Yingzhe Wang |
| Abstract: | We study systemic default contagion in sparse financial networks and develop a framework for deciding when aggregate exposure matrices are reliable and when node-level network information changes tail risk and control design. The first contribution is a multi-population McKean-Vlasov foundation for distance-to-default dynamics with common noise, bounded state-dependent killing, loss feedback, sparse weighted exposures, and regulatory intervention, including quantitative convergence, propagation of chaos, stability in contagion matrices, controlled well-posedness, a two-population HJB characterization, and a steep-killing bridge to absorbing-boundary contagion. The second contribution is a set of computable matrix-approximation diagnostics: finite-grid bounds driven by row-exposure dispersion and square-edge spread, constructive tail-loss gaps for networks sharing the same aggregate matrix, and a spectral-radius criterion for local cascade onset. The third contribution is an information-value theory for control, showing that node-level graph pressure has strictly positive value when within-type pressure variation interacts with nonsaturated marginal killing reduction. Matched sparse-graph and matrix experiments, common-noise tests, HJB feedback diagnostics, fixed-budget control comparisons, and EBA/Pillar 3-calibrated synthetic networks validate the framework. The main conclusion is that finite-type matrices are effective in regular-mixing regimes, whereas concentrated sparse exposures generate tail-risk and intervention effects that require local-pressure diagnostics and network-aware control. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.24833 |
| By: | Sekimonyo, Jo M.; Casimir, Tara |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges the contemporary relevance of the Labor Theory of Value (LTV), arguing that labor time no longer provides an adequate metric for value creation in economies structured by automation and digital platforms. As economic activity becomes increasingly mediated by data-driven systems, value depends less on direct labor input and more on the conditions that enable participation in production. To account for this shift, the paper develops a structural framework in which value is modeled as a function of the means of production (Mₚ) and the means of participation (Mπ). While Mₚ captures technological capacity, infrastructure, and data systems, Mπ refers to the institutional, digital, and organizational conditions required to access and engage with these systems, including credentials, connectivity, network position, and algorithmic visibility. Participation in this framework is defined not as activity in general, but as rule-bound engagement within specific systems that structure access to production. By formalizing value as V = f(Mₚ, Mπ), the framework highlights the complementarity between production capacity and participation access. Constraints on participation limit value realization even in the presence of advanced technological systems. Where the Labor Theory of Value relies on socially necessary labor time (SNLT) to measure the quantity of labor required for production, the present framework emphasizes socially necessary participation (SNP) as the condition under which labor becomes economically effective. Within this structure, labor is reinterpreted as a cost-bearing participant that invests in its own participation capacity, thereby blurring the conventional distinction between labor and capital. The analysis extends to surplus allocation through a co-investment framework, in which multiple forms of capital, including human, financial, and technological, generate claims on output. The framework further identifies participation conditions as a site of economic power and potential commodification, as access to production is governed by institutional and algorithmic systems that regulate inclusion, visibility, and opportunity. This perspective supports a shift in the analysis of economic justice from post-production redistribution toward pre-distribution, emphasizing the role of participation conditions in shaping economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Labor Theory of Value; Value Theory; Political Economy; Means of Production; Means of Participation; Platform Economy; Digital Capitalism; Human Capital; Automation; Surplus Distribution; Pre-distribution; Economic Justice |
| JEL: | B5 D2 E2 H0 O3 P1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128989 |
| By: | Pierre-Andre Chiappori; Alexandros Theloudis; Jorge Velilla; Jose Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal; Jose Alberto Molina |
| Abstract: | The ability of spouses to commit to future behavior has important implications for the allocation of resources between them and over time. Using a lifecycle collective model for household behavior, we propose new tests that distinguish between full, limited, and no commitment, based on the dynamic impact of wage shocks on household labor supply. A novelty of our approach is its ability to formally reject limited commitment, in addition to the other two types, exploiting sign restrictions from theory. We implement our tests across 15 European countries, drawing data from the EU-SILC over the years 2005-2019. We find that the elasticity of the Pareto weight with respect to favorable past wages is generally positive, consistent with bargaining under limited commitment. Past wage shocks thus induce bargaining effects on labor supply, empowering the recipient spouse and weakening the partner. Formally, we reject full and no commitment in all but 4 countries, but fail to reject limited commitment. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.10664 |
| By: | Felix Bierbrauer (University of Cologne); Mattias Polborn (Vanderbilt University); Marten Ritterrath (VATT Institute for Economic Research & University of Cologne); Georg Weizsäcker (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We study the political economy of carbon taxes when neoclassical consumers take all other agents' emissions as given and socially responsible consumers internalize damages in a group-rule-utilitarian way, taking neoclassical consumers' behavior as given. We characterize political equilibrium taxes with a focus on deviations from first-best Pigouvian taxation. Welfare falls further if arguments on moral obligations to reduce carbon footprints polarize the debate in society. Finally, we present survey evidence that supports our theory: social responsibility correlates with lower consumption of brown goods, higher preferred carbon taxes, and support for moral arguments. |
| Keywords: | Political economy of taxation, carbon taxes, ethical behavior, moral dissent |
| JEL: | C9 D11 D72 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:419 |
| By: | Guillaume Pommey (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | I characterize the optimal regulation of a firm constituted by potential judgment-proof agents. I investigate two cases: (i) A principal hires an agent to undertake a prevention effort on their behalf; (ii) Two agents are jointly responsible of undertaking a prevention effort. In both cases, agents are in charge of exerting an unobservable level of safety care to reduce the probability of an accident that may occur due to the firm risky activity. Agents are called judgment proof when their final wealth is not enough to pay for the monetary penalties imposed by the regulator. I show that the standard Equivalence Theorem, stating that the distribution of penalties among injurers is irrelevant, does not hold in this context. Instead, in a principal-agent firm, the optimal regulation requires to fully target the principal if the agent can be subject to judgment proofness. In a two-agent firm, the optimal regulation consists in an almost equal sharing of penalties among agents. |
| Keywords: | Moral Hazard, Regulation, Limited liability, Judgment Proofness |
| JEL: | K13 K32 G33 D86 |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:622 |
| By: | Zhang, Jincheng |
| Abstract: | With the rapid development of generative AI, traditional consumer behavior theories centered on "information search-rational decision-making" are undergoing structural changes. Consumers no longer rely solely on static information platforms but engage in interactive dialogue with generative AI, completing needs identification, solution generation, and decision optimization with the support of dynamically generated content. This paper proposes a "Generative AI-Driven Interactive Consumer Behavior Model" (GAIBB) based on the integration of classic consumer behavior theories (such as the Theory of Rational Behavior, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and the Theory of Experiential Consumption). This model emphasizes three mechanisms: "co-creation decision-making, " "generative recommendation, " and "instant feedback loop, " explaining how AI reshapes consumers' cognitive paths and purchasing behavior. The research further indicates that generative AI is driving a shift in consumer behavior from "information acquisition" to "co-creation of cognition, " and reconstructing the power structure between platforms, brands, and users. |
| Keywords: | Generative Artificial Intelligence (Generative AI), Consumer Behavior Theory, Human–AI Interaction, Consumer Decision-Making, Interactive Consumer Behavior Model (GAICB). |
| JEL: | B4 B41 O3 O35 |
| Date: | 2026–01–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129360 |
| By: | Jonas Mayr; Amira Meddah; Irene Tubikanec |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel stochastic framework for modelling tax evasion dynamics by extending the deterministic model of Bertotti and Modanese (2018) through the use of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A key limitation of the original model is the static treatment of taxpayer compliance and evasion behaviour. We address this limitation by incorporating two stochastic mechanisms:(i) audits, where random enforcement events shift non-compliant individuals toward compliance, and (ii) imitation, where social influence drives compliant individuals toward evasion. We develop each mechanism as a separate PDMP, proving that both preserve the fundamental conservation laws of population and global income. Numerical simulations show that these mechanisms produce opposing long-term outcomes: pure audits lead to full compliance, while pure imitation leads to full evasion. The central contribution is a combined PDMP model in which both dynamics interact. This model no longer converges to an extreme equilibrium state. Instead, it can exhibit persistent fluctuations around the deterministic trajectory and suggests convergence to a stationary distribution, providing a more realistic representation of compliance-evasion dynamics observed in real economies. The proposed framework offers a versatile approach for integrating behavioural stochasticity into socio-economic models. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.23919 |