|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Mattia Guerini (Department of Economics and Management, University of Brescia, Italy.); Giovanni Marin (Dipartimento di Economia, Società , Politica, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy; SEEDS, Italy; FEEM,); Francesco Vona (Università degli Studi di Milano, Italy; FEEM;) |
| Abstract: | We study how monetary policy shapes firm level carbon emissions. Our identification strategy exploits the European Central Bank’s July 2012 move to the zero lower bound as a plausibly exogenous easing of credit supply, combined with rich administrative and survey data on French manufacturing firms from 2000–2019. Using a difference-in-differences design with debt-to-asset ratios as exposure, we find that financially constrained firms cut emissions by about 9.4% more than unconstrained ones. This effect primarily stems from improvements in energy efficiency, lower carbon intensity of energy, and general productivity improvements associated with capital deepening that outweighed modest scale effects. Small and medium firms drive these results, while large and EU ETS regulated firms show no significant response. On average, emissions fell by 3.3% per year, summing up to 5.3 million tonnes of ð ¶ð ‘‚2 saved. Despite the smaller marginal effects, total carbon savings due to the monetary easing are comparable to the savings from the EU ETS, highlighting the untargeted nature of the policy. |
| Keywords: | Financial constraints, credit supply, firm level carbon emissions, climate policies |
| JEL: | Q52 Q48 D22 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1525 |
| By: | Kay, Rosemarie; Bijedić-Krumm, Teita; Brink, Siegrun; Nielen, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Objectives: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of public childcare provision on women's and men's start-up rates in Germany. Going beyond previous studies, we also analyze its impact on the extent of the gender gap in start-up rates. Literature review: The current state of research indicates that public childcare provision generally reduces women's startup propensity. However, recent studies suggest that the relationship between public childcare provision and women' start-up propensity is not that clear-cut. It rather depends on the age group childcare is provided for. As the evidence regarding public childcare's impact on men's start-up propensity is mixed, it is unclear whether public childcare contributes to closing the gender gap in entrepreneurial activities. Approach/Method: We analyze the impact of public childcare provision on the start-up rate of women and men, as well as its impact on the corresponding Gender Parity Score (GPS) at a regional level. To do this, we generated a database based on public statistics covering the years 2012 up to 2018 and estimated Fixed Effect models. Results/Findings: Our results show that the effect of public childcare provision on women's and men's start-up propensity depends on the type of the venture and the age group the childcare is provided for. Moreover, public childcare affects women's and men's start-up propensity differently. All in all, public childcare provision decreases the GPS, indicating a widening of the gender gap. Implications and Value: As important as public childcare provision for women's general labor market participation is, it does neither improve their start-up propensity (quite the contrary) nor contribute to closing the entrepreneurial gender gap generally. Thus, public childcare provision seems not to be a policy for reducing the gender gap in entrepreneurship, apart from establishing economically substantial businesses. |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert die Auswirkungen öffentlicher Kinderbetreuungsangebote auf die Gründungsraten von Frauen und Männern in Deutschland basierend auf öffentlichen Daten aus den Jahren 2012 bis 2018 auf Regionalebene. Während eine höhere Verfügbarkeit von Kinderbetreuungsangeboten die geschlechtsspezifischen Unterschiede im Unternehmertum insgesamt sogar noch vergrößert, verringert sie diese Unterschiede bei wirtschaftlich substanzhaltigen Unternehmen und bei der Betreuung von Kindern im Alter zwischen drei und sechs Jahren. |
| Keywords: | Public childcare provision, Start-up propensity, Gender |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmwps:333923 |
| By: | Mueser, Peter; Michaelides, Marios (Actus Policy Research); Poe-Yamagata, Eileen; Jeon, Kyung-Seong |
| Abstract: | The Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program is a job-search assistance intervention targeting Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants in the United States. The program requires new UI claimants to attend a counseling session at the start of their UI claims to: 1) undergo an eligibility review to confirm their compliance with UI work search requirements, and 2) receive customized reemployment services. This study reports the results of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the Missouri RESEA program conducted in 2023, a period of strong labor market conditions. Results show that the program increased take-up of job counseling services and significantly reduced UI duration and benefit amounts collected, generating substantial savings for the UI system. Further, the program caused significant improvements in participants’ employment and earnings in the three quarters following UI entry. |
| Date: | 2025–11–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:spfa6_v1 |
| By: | Marcel Boyer; Molivann Panot |
| Abstract: | This article examines the evolution of inequality since 1920, highlighting the need to rebalance research and public debate toward the forms of inequality that matter most for social welfare. While income and wealth disparities have received overwhelming attention in academia and public policy circles, consumption inequality, a more relevant indicator, has declined over the last two and a half decades. The main characteristics of developments in income and wealth inequality over time (since 1920) are presented: the share of the top 1% of earners followed a downward trend until the 1970-79 decade, and an upward trend thereafter, returning to levels comparable to those of the 1920s. The share of the top 10% of earners followed a similar movement. Despite the prominence of distributional issues in contemporary debates, comprehensive measures of consumption inequality remain underdeveloped. Yet the need for such metrics is urgent. Progress over the past 25 years—led in part by initiatives at Statistics Canada—offers a promising foundation for more accurate and policy-relevant assessments of economic well-being. One important factor has been the development of social transfers in kind ( STiK), which add significant resources and benefits to households in the lowest income quintile to a greater extent than to those in the highest quintile. |
| Date: | 2025–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2025s-34 |
| By: | Rubenstein, Elias |
| Abstract: | Sequence-of-returns risk (SoRR) matters because the order of returns—rather than only their long-run average—determines whether real, inflation-indexed withdrawal plans survive the early retirement years. For EUR/JPY spenders invested in globally diversified, USD-centric portfolios, SoRR is co-determined by market and FX paths in the spending currency. This paper proposes a state-dependent Swiss-franc (CHF) overlay—implemented via cash/bills or liquid FX instruments—as crisis insurance rather than generic hedging. A transparent stress score triggers and sizes the sleeve; outcomes are evaluated on sequence-sensitive metrics (e.g., CVaR(95), maximum drawdown, time-underwater, and the 5th percentile of sustainable withdrawals). Indexing and FX procedures follow MSCI and WM/Refinitiv methodology; the design is fully auditable and modular for empirical tables/figures. |
| Keywords: | sequence-of-returns risk; safe-haven currency; Swiss franc (CHF); currency overlay; FX hedge; regime switching; drawdown management; decumulation; retirement income; CVaR; global multi-asset portfolios; international finance |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G11 G12 G15 G17 G31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126680 |
| By: | Bruno Delalibera (Universitat de Barcelona); Angélica Brum (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV); Luciene Pereiera (Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV) |
| Abstract: | Over the past three decades, many countries have adopted fiscal rules. This paper studies their impact on economic growth using an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth, where the government imposes both a debt rule and a budget balance rule. The model shows that fiscal rules are not neutral: their design and interaction, through an endogenously adjusting tax rate, directly shape savings, capital accumulation, and longterm growth. The model identifies conditions under which a balanced growth path exists and highlights the possibility of multiple steady states. When fiscal rules are too loose or initial debt is too high, the economy may converge to an unstable path. Tightening fiscal rules improves long-run welfare but can reduce current utility due to higher taxes. Empirically, we estimate a growth equation and address endogeneity using an instrumental variable strategy based on the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules. The results indicate that the adoption of fiscal rules boosts growth in developing and lowincome countries. In Europe, only welldesigned rules are associated with higher growth. Across specifications, debt rules consistently outperform budget balance rules, especially in less developed economies. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Policy, Economic growth, OLG Model, Instrumental Variables |
| JEL: | O47 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:487web |
| By: | Michel Armel Ndayikeza (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, Université du Burundi) |
| Abstract: | Going to college is a risky investment because there is no guarantee of securing a job after graduation. The transition from school to work is particularly complicated in low-income countries, where access to higher education has risen considerably over the past two decades, from 4.5% in 2000 to 9.5% in 2021 (WDI, 2025). Many graduates then find themselves in low-skill jobs, i.e. jobs that do not require a university degree, raising the question of the impact of these experiences on their future professional integration. In a context where the creation of skilled jobs is not keeping pace with the increase in the number of graduates (World Bank, 2023), this question becomes essential to inform the choices made by young people at the start of their careers. |
| Abstract: | Trouver un emploi lorsqu'on en sort est une autre paire de manches. La transition de l'école au travail est particulièrement compliquée dans les pays à faible revenu, où l'accès à l'enseignement supérieur a considérablement augmenté au cours des deux dernières décennies, passant de 4, 5% en 2000 à 9, 5% en 2021 (WDI, 2025). De nombreux diplômés se retrouvent alors dans des emplois peu qualifiés, c'est-à-dire des emplois ne nécessitant pas de diplôme universitaire, posant la question de l'impact de ces expériences sur leur future insertion professionnelle. Dans un contexte où la création d'emplois qualifiés ne suit pas la progression du nombre de diplômés (Banque Mondiale, 2023), cette question devient essentielle pour éclairer les choix des jeunes en début de carrière. |
| Keywords: | Low-skill Jobs, Underemployment, Labor demand, Job search, Incentivized Resume Rating, Field experiment, Expérience de terrain, Emploi peu qualifié, Sous-emploi, Demande de travail, Recherche d'emploi, Pays à faible revenu, Burundi, Evaluation incitative |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05385117 |
| By: | Arief Rahman (Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia Author-2-Name: Sri Gunani Partiwi Author-2-Workplace-Name: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, 60111, Surabaya, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Ratna Sari Dewi Author-3-Workplace-Name: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, 60111, Surabaya, Indonesia Author-4-Name: Sri Rachmi Dewi Author-4-Workplace-Name: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, 60111, Surabaya, Indonesia Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective - This research aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of university culture dissemination by introducing cultural entropy as an objective metric and by modeling its evolution under agent interactions in social networks. The analysis served as an empirically calibrated test of the dynamics of culture dissemination using a simulation framework. Methodology/Technique - Employees from five university divisions participated in an organizational culture survey. This survey was used to create individual cultural profiles. A modified Axelrod model was adopted to simulate the spread of cultural values in an agent-based environment. Furthermore, division-level cultural profiles were mapped using entropy. Forward projections were also used to assess entropy reduction and reveal polarization patterns. Findings - The estimated university-wide cultural entropy was 1.52, indicating significant dispersion in cultural values. Simulations showed that two divisions could experience rapid reductions in entropy, suggesting faster cultural balance. Meanwhile, three divisions showed continued high entropy or slow improvement. Polarization analysis identified that certain standard cultural values became more dominant. Some were weakened since cultural unification progressed unevenly across divisions. Novelty - This research showed novelty in three ways, namely (i) the use of an Axelrod-based model calibrated with higher-education survey data. (ii) Introduction of cultural entropy as a simple metric for tracking dissemination at the university and division level. (iii) The use of real survey results to set up an agent-based model that connects actual culture to simulated interactions. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | organizational culture; Axelrod model; agent-based simulation; cultural entropy; higher education. |
| JEL: | C63 D8 I23 L16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr355 |
| By: | Begg, Iain |
| Abstract: | The UK fiscal framework, especially the fiscal rules in place, has faced widespread criticism. Since the current system was introduced, the UK’s fiscal arithmetic has worsened. The article examines practices in other countries and, going beyond rules, looks at other dimensions of their fiscal frameworks, then suggests a ‘menu’ of possible changes to improve the UK approach. Scrutiny and a variety of governance features also deserve attention. While not all practices elsewhere can be directly adopted in the UK institutional setting and some would encounter political sensitivities, many can. |
| Keywords: | fiscal frameworks; fiscal councils; governance of fiscal policy; escape clauses |
| JEL: | E62 H61 E61 |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130024 |
| By: | Ibrahim Tanko Gampine (UPVM UM3 UFR3 - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier 3 - Faculté des Sciences humaines et des sciences de l'environnement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3); Bassirou Niang; Kossi Kawedia Yakoubou |
| Abstract: | E-Learning has become a global phenomenon. It makes learning more accessible and the acquisition of new skills and knowledge easier. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, online qualifications are often the subject of controversy regarding their recognition. This is clear evidence of unsuitable e-Learning systems, as well as the limited relevance of the programs they offered in addressing the Africans context-specific needs. Despite the multitude of studies on the quality of online education, inconsistencies in findings make not only comparisons between studies difficult but also complicate the assessment of quality online education. To address this issue, this study integrated the Kirkpatrick with DeLone & McLean models to identify core quality dimensions. Furthermore, this study clarified the context-specific requirements of the identified dimensions. Ten hypotheses were tested using online survey questionnaires administered to four higher education institutions via Qualtrics. The findings supported eight hypotheses and rejected two. This model highlights the critical role played by system quality, the quality of course content, faculty, and institutional support in enhancing learning. Furthermore, the model establishes a clear cause-and-effect pathway useful in addressing poor learning outcomes. We discussed the implications of the findings in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. The model is simple, theoretically sound, and comprehensive for real-life applications. Specifically, this study highlighted the importance of both formative and summative evaluations. Further qualitative studies on the context-specific requirements of the dimensions would be desirable. |
| Abstract: | La formation en ligne est devenue un phénomène mondial. Il rend l'apprentissage plus accessible et facilite l'acquisition de nouvelles compétences et connaissances. En Afrique subsaharienne, cependant, les diplômes obtenus en ligne font souvent l'objet de controverses quant à leur reconnaissance. Cela démontre clairement que les systèmes d'apprentissage en ligne sont inadaptés et que les programmes proposés ne répondent que de manière limitée aux besoins spécifiques des Africains. Malgré la multitude d'études sur la qualité de l'enseignement en ligne, les incohérences dans les résultats rendent non seulement difficile la comparaison entre les études, mais compliquent également l'évaluation de la qualité de l'enseignement en ligne. Pour remédier à ce problème, cette étude a intégré les modèles de Kirkpatrick à celui de DeLone & McLean afin d'identifier les dimensions fondamentales pour assurer la qualité de l'apprentissage en ligne. En outre, cette étude a clarifié les exigences spécifiques au contexte africain des dimensions identifiées. Dix hypothèses ont été testées à l'aide de questionnaires d'enquête en ligne administrés à quatre établissements d'enseignement supérieur via Qualtrics. Les résultats ont confirmé huit hypothèses et en ont rejeté deux. Ce modèle met en évidence le rôle essentiel joué par la qualité du système informatique, la qualité du contenu des cours, le soutien du corps enseignant et celui des établissements dans l'amélioration de l'apprentissage. En outre, le modèle établit un clair lien de cause à effet utile pour remédier aux incohérences soulignées. Nous avons discuté des implications des résultats dans le contexte de l'Afrique subsaharienne. Le modèle est simple, théoriquement consistant et complet pour des applications concrètes. Plus précisément, cette étude a souligné l'importance des évaluations formatives et sommatives. D'autres études qualitatives sur les exigences spécifiques au contexte des dimensions seraient souhaitables. |
| Keywords: | Quality assessment, Sub-saharan Africa, Kirkpatrick Model, Delone & Mclean model, E-learining, Quality education |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05326895 |
| By: | Junxiong Gao (Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF)); Alberto Plazzi (Universita' della Svizzera italiana; Swiss Finance Institute); Rossen I. Valkanov (University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Rady School of Management); Yan Xu (HKU, Faculty of Business and Economics) |
| Keywords: | public debt, fiscal imbalances, cross-sector predictability, output distortion, equity predictability |
| JEL: | E62 G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp25102 |
| By: | Kyan Htoo; A Myint Zu |
| Abstract: | Labor migration is a pervasive feature of life in contemporary Myanmar, but has been the subject of only limited research to date. Furthermore, most of this work has focused on international migrants, leaving internal migration comparatively understudied. This brief addresses this gap by exploring the characteristics of migrants and migration in four townships (Kayan, Maubin, Nyaungdon, and Twantay) located close to Myanmar’s primate city, Yangon. For comparative purposes, a representative sample of 1102 households was interviewed in May 2016, in two groups of village tracts: an aquaculture cluster characterized by high concentrations of fish farms, and agriculture cluster, where crop farming is the predominant agricultural activity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:fspmrh:291872 |
| By: | Cornfeld, Ofer; Niu, Kaicheng; Neeman, Oded; Roswell, Michael; Steinbach, Gabi; Beckett, Stephen J.; Wardi, Yorai; Weitz, Joshua S.; Yashiv, Eran |
| Abstract: | Infectious disease outbreaks with pandemic potential present challenges for mitigation and control. Policymakers must reduce disease-associated morbidity and mortality while also minimizing socioeconomic costs of interventions. At present, robust decision frameworks that integrate epidemic and macroeconomic dynamics to inform policy choices, given uncertainty in the current and future state of the outbreak and economic activity, are not widely available. In this study, we propose and analyze an economic-epidemic model to identify robust planning policies that limit epidemic impacts while maintaining economic activity. We compare alternative fixed, dynamic open-loop optimal control, and feedback control policies via a welfare loss framework. We find that open-loop policies that adjust employment dynamically while maintaining a flat epidemic curve outperform fixed employment reduction policies. However, open-loop policies are highly sensitive to misestimation of parameters associated with intrinsic disease strength and feedback between economic activity and transmission, leading to potentially significant increases in welfare loss. In contrast, feedback control policies guided by open-loop dynamical targets of the time-varying reproduction number perform near-optimally when parameters are well-estimated, while significantly outperforming open-loop policies whenever disease transmission and population-scale behavioral response parameters are misestimated – as they inevitably are. Our study provides a template for integrating principled economic models with epidemic scenarios to identify policy vulnerabilities and expand policy options in preparation for future pandemics. Across disease scenarios, we show that policies that temporarily limit economic activity and disease transmission reduce both disease-driven mortality and cumulative loss of economic activity. Our study suggests that future preparedness depends on feasible, robust, and adaptive policies and can help avoid false dichotomies in choosing between public health and economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics of epidemics; GDP loss; health outcomes; optimal and feedback control; pandemic response |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130372 |
| By: | Tjantana Barro; Michal Marencak; Giang Nghiem |
| Abstract: | We provide novel causal evidence that macroeconomic narrative framing, whether a policy is described as a supply or demand shock, significantly shapes household beliefs. In a randomized survey experiment conducted within the Bundesbank household panel, participants received identical information about a climate policy that was framed differently across treatments. While both the supply and demand narratives lower growth expectations, we find that the supply framing increases inflation expectations, whereas the demand framing does not reduce them. This highlights that how structural policies are communicated, not just what is communicated, critically influences expectation formation. Our findings offer new insights for central bank and government communication strategies during economic transitions like the green transition or AI adoption. |
| Keywords: | climate change, expectations, survey experiments, RCT |
| JEL: | C33 D84 E31 E52 Q4 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-69 |
| By: | Jamal, Haroon |
| Abstract: | Total Factor Productivity (TFP) represents the efficiency with which capital and labor inputs are utilized in the production process. It captures the impact of elements beyond mere increases in the quantity of inputs and represents factors such as technological progress, innovation, improvements in organizational efficiency and institutional quality. This study estimates TFP of manufacturing firms in Pakistan using latest available firm level data collected and compiled for the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) of 2022. Data of the WBES of 2007 is also employed to estimate comparative TFP magnitudes. The research also evaluates the impact of few organizational characteristics of firms on the current level of TFP for the year 2022. The study indicates low level of TFP with the deteriorating trend. These results are consistent with the findings of earlier research on TFP in the context of Pakistan. This study estimates close to 9 percent decline in the magnitude of TFP during the period of 2007 and 2022. However, the extent of deterioration varies across provinces and across industrial sectors. The largest decline (25 percent) in TFP magnitude is estimated in Baluchistan province, followed by KPK (10%). In terms of industrial sectors, the notable sectors where TFP magnitude has declined are Food (43%) and Leather and Leather product (45%). In contrast, sectors in which TFP has improved during 2007-2022 include; Machinery and Equipment (56%), Chemical and Chemical Products (47%) and Wearing Apparels (27%). The econometrical results related with the determinants of productivity suggest that factors which enhance the firms’ performance and level of productivity include; use of information and communication technology, formal training programs for employees, access to international market, proportion of skilled production workers and the presence of competitive market environment. The TFP literature suggests that to increase TFP in Pakistani manufacturing firms, a multifaceted approach focused on improving efficiency, technology, human capital, and the overall business environment is required. |
| Keywords: | TFP; Manufacturing firms; Pakistan |
| JEL: | D24 L60 |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126733 |
| By: | Theo Palomo (Paris School of Economics (PSE)); Davi Bhering (Paris School of Economics (PSE)); Thiago Scot (World Bank); Pierre Bachas (World Bank); Luciana Barcarolo (Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil, Ministry of Finance (Receita Federal do Brasil, RFB)); Celso Campos (Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil, Ministry of Finance (Receita Federal do Brasil, RFB)); Javier Feinmann (EU Tax Observatory); Leonardo Moreira (Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil, Ministry of Finance (Receita Federal do Brasil, RFB)); Gabriel Zucman (Paris School of Economics (PSE), UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We use population-wide administrative micro-data to provide new estimates of income inequality and effective tax rates by income groups in Brazil, capturing all income and all tax payments. Our data allow us to link businesses to their owners and thus to allocate business income and associated taxes to the corresponding individual firm owners. We provide sharp upward revisions to official inequality estimates: the top 1% earns 27.4% of total income in 2019, one of the highest level recorded in the world. The tax system, which relies heavily on consumption taxes, is regressive: while the average tax rate in the economy is 42.5%, this rate falls to 20.6% for million-dollar earners (roughly the top 0.01% of the distribution), due to the non-taxation of dividends and provisions that reduce corporate tax liabilities. We provide evidence suggesting that inequality in developing countries may be systematically underestimated, as even in Brazil—where dividends are untaxed, and hence incentives to retain income within companies are limited—attributing profits to business owners substantially raises income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, effective tax rates, Brazil |
| JEL: | D3 H2 H3 H5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:report:009 |
| By: | Wu, Shujie; Huang, Joshua; Serra, Teresa |
| Abstract: | This article shows how high-frequency market data relates to low frequency events by examining the economic value of using intraday data to hedge commodity spot prices in the futures market. We use the realized minimum-variance hedging ratio (RMVHR) framework, which depends on the realized futures-cash covariance matrix forecast. We focus on the crude oil crack and soybean crush industries and consider both multiple and single-commodity portfolios, as well as different forecast strategies based on intraday data. We use the Naïve hedging ratio as the benchmark to investigate the performance of intraday data-based hedging models. Our results suggest that for each portfolio considered, there is usually one intraday data-based hedging strategy that outperforms the Naïve. Superior performance, however, is not always statistically significant, for the crack industry. Our estimates place the advantage of using intraday data between $7, 155.00 and $287.50 per contract and year on average, with these values representing the decline in the portfolio’s standard deviation achieved through hedging. This points at a promising path to improving the performance of hedging in the commodity space based on intraday data. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nccc24:379012 |
| By: | Xavier Ragot (Department of Economics, Sciences Po); Makoto Nirei (Faculty of Economics, the University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a business cycle model where animal spirits shocks, originating from idiosyncratic productivity shocks, drive the comovement of investment, consumption, hours worked, and inflation. In the fully characterized comovement mechanism, real wage rigidity and diminishing returns to labor, resulting from the presence of capital, play a crucial role: a positive investment demand shock raises labor demand, decreases the marginal product of labor, and increases the marginal cost of producing final goods. Our model features a firm’s lumpy investment, leading to a state-dependent multiplier effect, which depends on the firm’s capital profile within an inaction band. Lumpy investments, propagated through the aggregate demand externality, generate an investment avalanche. This offers a microfoundation for our animal spirits shocks and produces aggregate fluctuations without assuming exogenous aggregate shocks.Additionally, by including a time-to-build process for capital formation, the model can explain the autocorrelation structure. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1263 |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin |
| Abstract: | Between 1950 and 2023, the housing cost burden — approximated by the proportion of total household consumption expenditure spent on housing, water, electricity and fuel — has risen almost steadily in many countries around the world. First, this trend can be explained by substantial improvements in the quantity and quality of housing. In fact, in some countries (e.g., Germany), per capita floor space has more than doubled since 1950. In developed countries, the availability of toilets, hot water and electricity rose from less than 50% of dwellings to almost 100% over the same period. Second, the increase in the housing cost burden is due to the higher rate of increase in housing costs compared to total consumer expenditures. Low-income households are particularly affected by this trend. Compared to high-income households, they spend a larger share of their consumption on housing. Such a deterioration in housing affordability can negatively affect health and education by reducing the residual income that could have been spent on them. This, in turn, can lead to lower incomes for these households, preventing them from closing the income gap with higher-income households. Third, the growing housing cost burden may be the result of the retreat of the state from social policy, including the removal of the strong rent control that was installed in many countries (including all European states) during World War II and effectively froze housing rents. This study examines the impact of housing policies on housing inequality, focusing on affordability gaps across income groups. Using longitudinal data from 28 countries between 1981 and 2023, I analyze the impact of housing policies such as rent control, housing subsidies and social housing on housing cost burdens. My results show that tenant protection policies reduce the proportion of housing costs for both low- and high-income households, without affecting the gap between them. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, housing inequality, rent control, housing allowances, social housing |
| JEL: | C32 O18 R38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2147 |
| By: | Guillaume Denos (IAE Angers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Angers - UA - Université d'Angers, GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Valérie Billaudeau (ESO - Espaces et Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | Cette communication présente les résultats de trois démarches de recherche-action menées auprès de tiers-lieux de l'économie sociale et solidaire en Pays de la Loire. L'objectif était d'accompagner ces organisations dans une meilleure compréhension des motivations croisées de leurs usagers en recourant à la méthode Q. Mobilisant la littérature sur l'hybridation organisationnelle, nous interrogeons le sens sous-jacent à l'articulation de plusieurs publics d'usagers occupant une variété de rôles essentiels au bon fonctionnement des tiers-lieux et à leur capacité de transformation sociale. |
| Keywords: | hybridité, usagers, méthode Q, recherche-action, ESS, tiers-lieux |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05321941 |
| By: | König, Jörg |
| Abstract: | Der öffentlich-rechtliche Rundfunk (ÖRR) ist seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil des dualen Rundfunksystems. Im digitalen Zeitalter steht er jedoch vor der Herausforderung, seine Legitimation und seinen Auftrag neu zu begründen, zudem auch das öffentliche Vertrauen deutlich zurückgegangen ist. Kritisiert werden tendenziöse Berichterstattungen, mangelnde Transparenz sowie ein im internationalen Vergleich extrem hohes Budget. Reformen müssen dementsprechend deutlich tiefer greifen als in den Medienstaatsverträgen vorgesehen. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwpos:333935 |
| By: | Alessandro De Chiara (Universitat de Barcelona); Ester Manna (Universitat de Barcelona); Shubhranshu Singh (Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University) |
| Abstract: | We theoretically investigate whether AI developers or AI operators should be liable for the harm the AI systems may cause when they hallucinate. We find that the optimal liability framework may vary over time, with the evolution of the AI technology, and that making the AI operators liable can be desirable only if it induces monitoring of the AI systems. We also highlight non-trivial relationships between welfare and reputational concerns, human supervision ability, and the accuracy of the technology. Our results have implications for regulatory design and business strategies. |
| Keywords: | AI hallucinations, AI liability, AI supervision |
| JEL: | K2 L51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:492web |
| By: | Serrano-Arcos, M. Mar; Sánchez-Fernández, Raquel; Pérez-Mesa, Juan Carlos |
| Abstract: | Purpose – Globalization has increased the importance of understanding consumer behavior, including anticonsumption tendencies, toward agri-food products, particularly in contexts where a sector or country faces an image crisis. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing consumer reluctance to buy (RTB) foreign agri-food products – a form of anti-consumption – with a specific focus on the role of country of origin in decision-making. By analyzing these variables, the research seeks to provide insights that can help businesses and policymakers develop more effective strategies to address consumer concerns and improve market positioning. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual model is proposed suggesting that RTB foreign agri-food products can be mitigated by consumer affinity toward a foreign country and other key variables such as country image and perceived value, counteracting consumer ethnocentrism, notably when image crises affect a country product. The empirical study focuses on the Spanish agri-food sector, using data from 335 German consumers. Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed to analyze the relationships within the model. Findings – Results indicate that affinity toward a foreign country and perceived value significantly reduce RTB offoreign agri-food products, whereas consumer ethnocentrism increases RTB. Moreover, the study reveals that image crises moderate these relationships. Originality/value – This study provides original insights by investigating the agri-food sector and the nuanced impact of country image and consumer affinity in mitigating RTB, a manifestation of potential anticonsumption, within this context. Notably, it offers novel empirical evidence on how image crises concerning a country-product dynamically moderate the influence of these key variables. |
| Keywords: | Reluctance to buy, Consumer affinity, Country image, Perceived value, Ethnocentrism, Image crises, Anti-consumption, Agri-food sector |
| JEL: | M31 Q13 |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126728 |
| By: | Inam, Munib; Buck, Steven C. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343791 |
| By: | Koppenberg, Maximilian; Hirsch, Stefan |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343671 |
| By: | Tong, Jingyi; Bartalotti, Otavio C.; Zhang, Wendong |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343808 |
| By: | Quinn, William; Turner, John D.; Walker, Clive B. |
| Abstract: | Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our monthly speculation index reveals four distinct epochs of speculation in the UK. Epochs of high speculation coincide with higher stock market returns and higher economic growth, while low speculation periods coincide with high levels of government debt and financial repression. We find that low interest rates foment the development of higher speculation, and that eras of higher speculation are often followed by greater banking instability. |
| Keywords: | speculation, commodity markets, stock market, financial repression, monetary conditions, banking stability |
| JEL: | E44 E50 G10 N13 N14 N23 N24 Q02 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:333934 |
| By: | Wang Xiao (Faculty of Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Thoo Ai Chin Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Although environmental collaboration has emerged as a critical strategy for enhancing sustainability performance in the manufacturing industry, the factors influencing it, the specific practices, and their relationship with sustainability performance remain unclear. Methodology/Technique - This study conducts a comprehensive literature review using a content analysis approach to examine the factors influencing environmental collaboration, its specific practices, and its relationship with sustainability performance. Drawing on an extensive analysis of publications from 2004 to 2024, this research identifies key success factors and practices for effective environmental collaboration. Findings - It examines the relationship between ecological collaboration and sustainability performance. The findings reveal nine multifaceted, interconnected factors that advance environmental collaboration. Moreover, key practices of environmental collaboration with suppliers and customers mainly involve jointly setting sustainability goals, promoting green production and packaging, managing waste and take-back initiatives, and cooperating on environmental knowledge sharing and compliance. Novelty - Furthermore, this study suggests that environmental collaboration directly impacts sustainability performance. By identifying these, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of environmental collaboration and its impact on sustainability performance in the manufacturing industry. Additionally, this study provides a path for future research. Type of Paper - Review" |
| Keywords: | Environmental collaboration, sustainability performance, manufacturing industry, supply chain partner. |
| JEL: | M40 M49 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:afr245 |
| By: | Baugh, Kaylyn; Dharmasena, Senarath |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343933 |
| By: | Hiroki KONDO |
| Abstract: | This study examines how urban agglomeration is influenced by both family public goods, which has the advantage of proximity within a family, and human capital, which increases productivity with increasing proximity of residents within a city. In some cases, proximity advantages reinforce agglomeration forces, while in others, they work in the opposite direction and weaken them. When proximity advantages exist among family members, urban population density increases beyond what exists without such advantages. This situation discourages further migration of unskilled workers from more distant regions, thereby considerably dividing society. In these regions, families perpetually remain in the regions as unskilled workers, with lower substantial incomes. The analytical framework and findings of this study provide an important basis for evaluating several important policies. First, the model exhibits multiple human capital agglomeration patterns: a monocentric equilibrium and polycentric urban structure with multiple core cities. Among them, the polycentric equilibrium enhances overall economic welfare and mitigates persistent social disparities across regions and generations. Thus, Japan should promote such an urban structure by expanding the geographical and administrative scope of local governments, as proposed by the doshusei reform. Second, the study examines the impacts of social security systems that provide family public goods to the elderly. The fact that this also mitigates social gap by encouraging parents to invest more in their children’s education is also demonstrated in the study. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25120 |
| By: | Banks, J.; French, E.; McCauley, J. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the nature of long-term care for older adults with cognitive impairments in England1. Long-term care (LTC), which in England is commonly referred to as adult social care, is care that supports daily activities of living for older and disabled individuals to enhance their quality of life. This includes care services ranging from nursing home stays to home-based assistance with tasks like washing, dressing, and eating. For older people with cognitive impairment, such as dementia for example, there may be additional specialized care and support that is necessary. This paper shows that the high care needs of older individuals is largely attributable to those with cognitive impairments: approximately half of the total care costs of the age 65+ population in England are attributable to the 8.5% of individuals with cognitive limitations. |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2583 |
| By: | Xiuxia Yin (Department of Actuarial, Financial and Economic Mathematics. Universitat de Barcelona and BEAT); Pedro Calleja (Department of Actuarial, Financial and Economic Mathematics. Universitat de Barcelona and BEAT); Josep Maria Izquierdo (Department of Actuarial, Financial and Economic Mathematics. Universitat de Barcelona and BEAT) |
| Abstract: | In claims problems, we explore three characterizations of the constrained equal awards rule based on how allocations respond to an agent increasing its claim. In the first one we ensure that over-demanding by an unsatisfied agent does not harm others. In the second one we require that such over-demanding leaves the entire allocation unchanged. Finally, in the third one we weaken this last condition by protecting only the initially fully compensated agents. |
| Keywords: | Claims problems, Over-demand proofness, Expansion invariance |
| JEL: | C71 C78 D47 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:490web |
| By: | Michalek Jerzy; Ciaian Pavel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Support for young farmers is an important objective in the EU’s agricultural policy framework, aiming to promote generational renewal as a means of enhancing the competitiveness and sustainability of the EU’s agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the economic prospects of young farmers by estimating the microeconomic impacts of rural development programme (RDP) support on the economic performance of young farmers in Poland and Germany between 2007 and 2012. Using the synthetic control method and Farm Accountancy Data Network panel data, we find that the support had mixed effects. In Poland, RDP-supported young farmers underperformed relative to their unsupported counterparts, probably due to the entry of less-performing farmers into the sector, high environmental compliance costs and/or insufficiently tailored policy design. Conversely, old farmers benefited more, probably due to their superior entrepreneurial skills and lower commitment to adopting environmental practices. In Germany, RDP support improved the performance of young farmers, suggesting that it probably addressed some market imperfections. These findings underscore the limitations of a one-size-fits-all approach to supporting young farmers and the need for region-specific policies. Policymakers should mitigate unintended consequences, such as incentivising less-performing entrants, and better tailor interventions to the needs of young farmers. While our findings are specific to Poland and Germany, they contribute to broader policy discussions on the effectiveness of agricultural support for young farmers and highlight the need for further research in different contexts. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143803 |
| By: | Sanjog Misra |
| Abstract: | Foundation models, and in particular large language models, can generate highly informative responses, prompting growing interest in using these ''synthetic'' outputs as data in empirical research and decision-making. This paper introduces the idea of a foundation prior, which shows that model-generated outputs are not as real observations, but draws from the foundation prior induced prior predictive distribution. As such synthetic data reflects both the model's learned patterns and the user's subjective priors, expectations, and biases. We model the subjectivity of the generative process by making explicit the dependence of synthetic outputs on the user's anticipated data distribution, the prompt-engineering process, and the trust placed in the foundation model. We derive the foundation prior as an exponential-tilted, generalized Bayesian update of the user's primitive prior, where a trust parameter governs the weight assigned to synthetic data. We then show how synthetic data and the associated foundation prior can be incorporated into standard statistical and econometric workflows, and discuss their use in applications such as refining complex models, informing latent constructs, guiding experimental design, and augmenting random-coefficient and partially linear specifications. By treating generative outputs as structured, explicitly subjective priors rather than as empirical observations, the framework offers a principled way to harness foundation models in empirical work while avoiding the conflation of synthetic ''facts'' with real data. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.01107 |
| By: | Rausser, Gordon; Villas-Boas, Sofia B. |
| Abstract: | Professor George Garrett Judge's body of work constitutes one of the most intellectually coherent and forward-looking research programs in modern quantitative economics, spanning three distinct but related domains: econometric estimation theory, spatial equilibrium operations research, and information-theoretic inference. What appears at first to be a diverse set of contributions is in fact organized around a single foundational question: How can economists recover reliable information about complex systems from noisy, incomplete, and imperfect data? Judge approached this challenge first by advancing new estimators and finitesample theory, then by reformulating spatial general equilibrium through mathematical programming methods, and ultimately by developing an entropy-based framework that integrates information theory, statistical mechanics, and computational methods. His vision redefines quantitative economics for an information-rich but uncertainty-dominated world, emphasizing epistemological humility, out-of-sample predictive performance, and the dynamic recovery of information over static parameter estimation. Across more than 150 articles, 16 books, and decades of mentorship, Judge reshaped agricultural economics, applied economics, and econometrics more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:assa26:379046 |
| By: | Remisiewicz, Łukasz (University of Gdańsk) |
| Abstract: | Metrics-based reasoning patterns diffuse from core to periphery as peripheral and semi-peripheral countries adopt Western evaluation standards as formal categories or cultural scripts. While these scripts are applied across disciplines, each field maintains its own traditional criteria for scientific assessment. Consequently, scholars navigate between internalized and externally imposed evaluative frameworks when writing reviews. This study examines how metrics-based reasoning diffuses differently across disciplines through evaluative practices, with metrics being transformed and interpreted within the context of each field's unique evaluative culture. To compare diffusion patterns, this article analyzes 174 negative habilitation reviews across four Polish disciplines: art history, mathematics, materials engineering, and sociology. Despite uniform policy incentives, reviewers employed diverse criteria when assessing publication records. Materials engineering exhibited the most extensive use and emphasis on metrics, while art history relied minimally on indicators. Crucially, metrics were never the sole basis for negative conclusions but were consistently accompanied by additional forms of reasoning. |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:p76eu_v1 |
| By: | Konrad Adler (University of St. Gallen - School of Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Oliver Rehbein (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Matthias Reiner (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Jing Zeng (University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple but effective tool to measure firms' exposure to climate risk: the market. We develop a model showing that abnormal stock returns around significant climate policy events measure a firm's exposure to climate risk. Building on this theoretical foundation, we create market-based greenness measures based on abnormal returns around UN climate conferences. Our measurement of climate risk covers around 36, 000 international firms, a tenfold increase relative to existing measures. It is associated with lower present and future carbon emissions and provides explanatory power distinct from existing climate risk measures. Market-based green firms are more likely to file green patents, have lower stock-price volatility, and tend to be financially more robust. At the country level, market-based greenness is associated with lower emission intensity and a larger share of renewable energy. |
| Keywords: | greenness, green firms, climate risk, climate change |
| JEL: | G14 G32 G38 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp25104 |
| By: | Coccia, Mario |
| Abstract: | Forecasting technological trajectories requires understanding the mechanisms that accelerate systemic innovation. This study develops a macroevolutionary framework, positing that host technologies evolve through the microevolution of embedded subsystems. A longitudinal analysis of the iPhone (2007–2025) and Bluetooth technologies reveals that subsystem advancements consistently precede and enable major system-level innovations, with integration lags shrinking from three to one year—evidence of accelerating co-evolution. Subsystem improvements in camera resolution and display quality exhibit exponential growth, significantly shaping the macroevolution of smartphone capabilities. Hedonic pricing models further highlight battery life and display resolution as dominant drivers of innovation and market value. Theoretical implications include extending evolutionary models of technological change by identifying subsystem evolution as a fundamental mechanism of systemic progress. Managerial implications emphasize the strategic importance of aligning subsystem development with host technology integration to reduce innovation delays and sustain competitive advantage. This approach enhances technology forecasting and informs resource allocation in dynamic innovation ecosystems. |
| Date: | 2025–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f6qhc_v1 |
| By: | Wenyin CHENG; Tao LIANG; Bo MENG; Hongyong ZHANG |
| Abstract: | China is now the world’s largest exporter, with average export prices ranging from only 40% to 60% of those in other countries. This paper examines whether industrial subsidies can explain China’s export performance and global competitiveness. Using firm-level subsidy data and inter-provincial input-output tables with firm ownership information, we measure both direct subsidies and indirect subsidies from upstream industries. Our analysis yields several key findings: (1) Direct subsidies significantly increase both Chinese firms’ probability of exporting (extensive margin) and their export volume (intensive margin), with a larger effect on the intensive margin. (2) Notably, indirect subsidies (especially those from first-tier upstream industries) also play an important role in boosting exports. (3) Both domestic and foreign-invested firms benefit from direct subsidies, though the effects of upstream subsidies vary by firm ownership. (4) Contrary to expectations, subsidies do not lead to lower export prices. Instead, both direct and indirect subsidies are positively associated with product quality, thereby reducing quality-adjusted prices. The mechanism analysis suggests that export growth and quality upgrading are driven by (i) direct subsidies through increased R&D and imported inputs, and (ii) indirect subsidies through domestic intermediate inputs. Overall, the findings indicate that government support may promote quality upgrading and strengthen the global competitiveness of Chinese exporters. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25119 |
| By: | Rahimi Kahkashi, Sanaz; Asharieen, Nasim; Adeli, OmidAli; Roudari, Soheil |
| Abstract: | In the years following the Islamic Revolution, Iran's economy has been affected by international sanctions with varying degrees of intensity. In recent years, the scope and severity of these sanctions have increased, leaving profound impacts on economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth. This study aims to dynamically analyze Iran’s economic growth response to sanctions and economic shocks over the period 1981–2021, using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model combined with a Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) framework. This model enables a dynamic examination of the temporal effects of economic and sanction-related shocks. The explanatory variables in the model include liquidity volume, tax revenues, government current expenditures, exchange rate, income inequality, human capital, oil revenues, and sanctions. A dummy variable has been incorporated to represent sanctions during selected key sanction periods (1981–1988, 1996–1997, 2006–2013, and 2018–2021). The estimated model results indicate that Iran’s economic growth exhibits nonlinear responses to various shocks. Sanctions, exchange rate increases, rising income inequality, and declining human capital have had negative effects on economic growth, whereas positive reactions to government current expenditures have contributed to economic expansion. Regarding tax revenues, the findings suggest that increasing tax revenues can play a crucial role in reducing dependence on oil income. However, without structural reforms, raising taxes may increase production costs and reduce investment, thereby hindering economic growth. Therefore, instead of merely increasing taxes, emphasizing tax transparency, reducing tax evasion, and optimizing tax exemptions is essential. Regarding oil revenues, the study finds that their impact on economic growth varies depending on how they are managed. On the one hand, investing these resources in infrastructure, research and development, and financing imports of intermediate and capital goods can boost economic growth. On the other hand, excessive reliance on oil revenues, especially under sanction conditions, increases economic vulnerability and negatively affects growth stability. Sanctions have had a significant negative impact on Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP), particularly through their effects on trade, investment, and production capacity. The findings of this study underscore the importance of proper oil resource management, reducing Iran's dependence on external economic factors, implementing effective tax policies, and strengthening productive sectors. Accordingly, policies that enhance economic resilience against sanctions, develop domestic production capacity, and mitigate the adverse effects of oil revenue fluctuations will play a key role in achieving sustainable economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Sanction, Economic Growth, Fiscal and Monetary Policies, TVP – FAVAR Model, Iran |
| JEL: | C32 F51 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127342 |