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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Adrien Auclert; Matthew Rognlie; Ludwig Straub |
| Abstract: | In the past decade, a new paradigm for fiscal and monetary policy analysis has emerged, combining the canonical macro model of income and wealth inequality with the New Keynesian model. These Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (“HANK”) models feature new transmission channels and allow for the joint study of aggregate and distributional effects. We review key developments in this literature through the lens of a unified “canonical HANK model”. Monetary and balanced-budget fiscal policy have similar aggregate effects as in the standard new Keynesian model, while deficit-financed fiscal policy is much more expansionary. We discuss the split between direct and indirect effects of policy, and also the implications of cyclical income risk, maturity structure, nominal assets, behavioral frictions, and many other extensions to the model. Throughout, we highlight the benefits of using sequence-space methods to solve and analyze this class of models. |
| JEL: | D1 E21 E31 E32 E43 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32991 |
| By: | Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence suggests consumers rely on their shopping experiences to form beliefs about inflation. In other words, they "learn by shopping". I introduce this empirical observation as an informational friction in the New Keynesian model and use it to study its consequences for the transmission of aggregate shocks and the design of monetary policy. Learning by shopping anchors households' beliefs about inflation to its past, causing disagreement with firms over the value of the real wage. The discrepancy allows nominal shocks to have real effects and makes the slope of the Phillips curve a function of the monetary policy stance. As a result, a more hawkish monetary policy reduces the volatility and persistence of inflation, increases the degree of anchoring of households' inflation expectations, and flattens the slope of the Phillips curve of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;Inflation Expectations;Monetary Policy;Business Cycle;Informational Frictions |
| JEL: | D84 E31 E32 E52 E58 E70 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-12 |
| By: | Tomás E. Caravello; Alisdair McKay; Christian K. Wolf |
| Abstract: | In a rich family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, the counterfactual evolution of the macro-economy under alternative policy rules is pinned down by just two objects: first, reduced-form projections with respect to a large information set; and second, the dynamic causal effects of policy shocks. In particular, no assumptions about the structural shocks affecting the economy are needed. We propose to recover these two sufficient statistics using a ``VAR-Plus'' approach, and apply it to evaluate several monetary policy counterfactuals. |
| JEL: | E32 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32988 |
| By: | Miguel A. Mascarúa Lara |
| Abstract: | This study uses a Markov regime-switching model with time-varying means to identify subnational, sectoral, and national economic phases. The model replicates the official business cycle dates in Mexico and quantifies the contributions of states, regions, and sectors to the national recession probability. The findings show that the southern region contributes differently to the national recession probability than the other regions, even increasing it during expansionary periods at the national level. Additionally, the manufacturing sector is found to account for up to half of the national recession probability. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles;Expansions;Recessions |
| JEL: | C22 E32 E27 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2024-13 |
| By: | Créchet, Jonathan; Cui, Jing; Sabada, Barbara; Sawyer, Antoine |
| Keywords: | Worker flows, business cycles, life cycle |
| JEL: | E24 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:163 |
| By: | Ekaterina Pirozhkova (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Giovanni Ricco (CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, 5 Av. Le Chatelier, 91120 Palaiseau, France); Nicola Viegi (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Four factors drive the high-frequency impact of monetary policy announcements in South Africa: affecting short-, mid-, and long-term yield curve, as well as country risk. Controlling for information effects, we build IVs to study the transmission of conventional monetary policy, forward guidance, term premia, country risk and information shocks. Our findings reveal textbook contractionary effects of conventional monetary policy. Policy communication, particularly forward guidance, has persistent effects on output and prices. Country risk is a novel and powerful channel of monetary policy communication in emerging markets. By defending its independence, re-stating its inflation target objective, and addressing external shocks, the central bank can mitigate country risk and generate strong expansionary effects. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Small Open Economy, Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rates. |
| JEL: | E5 F3 F4 C3 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202442 |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the study is to assess if a policy of female inclusive education should be complemented with a policy of female ownership of bank accounts to fight female unemployment. The study therefore examines how female ownership of bank accounts moderates the incidence of female education on female unemployment. The focus is on 44 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 2004 to 2018 and the empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions. The interactions are tailored such that female ownership of bank accounts influence the effect of female inclusive education on female unemployment. From the empirical findings, it is evident that female ownership of bank accounts does not effectively moderate female education in order to reduce female unemployment unless complementary policies are considered. The complementary policies should be in view of boosting the interaction between female education and female bank account ownership in increasing employment opportunities for the female gender and by extension, reducing female unemployment. The invalidity of the moderating effect is robust to the inclusion of more elements in the conditioning information set as well as accounting for other dimensions of endogeneity such as simultaneity and the unobserved heterogeneity. Policy implications are discussed. This study contributes to the extant literature by assessing how female ownership of bank accounts complement female inclusive education to reduce female unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Inequality; Gender; Inclusive development; Unemployment |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:24/009 |
| By: | Andres Fernandez; Martin Hiti; Asani Sarkar |
| Abstract: | Recent events have heightened awareness of systemic risk stemming from nonbank financial sectors. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, liquidity demand from nonbank financial entities caused a “dash for cash” in financial markets that required government support. In this post, we provide a quantitative assessment of systemic risk in the nonbank sectors. Even though these sectors have heterogeneous business models, ranging from insurance to trading and asset management, we find that their systemic risk has common variation, and this commonality has increased over time. Moreover, nonbank sectors tend to become more systemic when banking sector systemic risk increases. |
| Keywords: | nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs); nonbanks; banks; systemic risk; Interconnections |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G22 G23 G24 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98893 |
| By: | Elena Bassoli (ETH Zürich; Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Agar Brugiavini (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Institute for Fiscal Studies); Ludovico Carrino (University of Trieste; King’s College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the cost of long-term care for individuals and society by looking at the onset of dementia in a population of older individuals aged 50 and above. By exploiting the Survey of Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing (ELSA), we causally assess how a dementia shock affects commodities purchases and other domains of individual's life, in the short-run. We find that individuals reduce food consumption and increase rent and housing-related expenditures. We show that the demand for care is also affected, with an increase in both hospital, formal and informal care. Results are robust to alternative definitions of the shock and sensitivity analyses. Additionally, we discover spill-over effects on the spouse's well-being when the partner becomes sick. Finally, we compute the financial burden on individuals following a dementia diagnosis in terms of formal and informal care costs. |
| Keywords: | health economics, long-term care, SHARE, ELSA, welfare costs |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2024:13 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | El presente documento tiene como objetivo fomentar la formulación de políticas públicas de electromovilidad en el transporte público de Costa Rica con una mirada de articulación de distintos actores, incluidos el Poder Legislativo, los sectores técnicos y el sector privado. Se busca así promover la realización de debates que permitan incorporar puntos de vista más amplios y diversificados sobre el tema, y a la vez facilitar la toma de decisiones sobre la base de estudios comparativos que contribuyan a lograr esa transición. En los capítulos del documento se aplican distintas metodologías de análisis, de manera que en cada uno de ellos se presenta un conjunto de propuestas de políticas o acciones aplicables al tema analizado, lo que permite visualizar desde una perspectiva más completa los posibles caminos para acelerar la transición hacia la electromovilidad del transporte público en el país. |
| Date: | 2024–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:80666 |
| By: | Clinton Gubong Gassi (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, UR3190, F-25000 Besançon, France); Frank Steffen (Faculty of Law, Business and Economics, University of Bayreuth, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to identify the multi-winner voting rules that can be con- sidered as extension of the Plurality rule. Multi-winner voting addresses the problem of selecting a fixed-size subset of candidates, called a committee, from a larger set of available candidates based on the voters’ preferences. In the single-winner setting, where each voter provides a strict ranking of the candidates and the goal is to select a unique candidate, Yeh (2008) characterized the Plurality rule as the only voting rule satisfying five independent axioms: anonymity, neutrality, consistency, efficiency, and top-only. In this paper, we demonstrate that a natural extension of these axioms to the multi-winner framework allows us to identify a class of top-k counting rules as multi-winner analogous to the Plurality rule. |
| Keywords: | Multi-winner, voting rules, axioms, Plurality rule, top-k counting rules. |
| JEL: | D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2024-18 |
| By: | Heilmann, Felix; Gerresheim, Nils; Henze, Levi; Huwe, Vera; Kölschbach Ortego, Axel; Krahé, Max; Mölling, Christian; Schulte, Sara; Schulz, Sabrina; Schuster, Florian; Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa; Steinwart, Joke; Steitz, Janek |
| Abstract: | Die Bundesrepublik steht vor der historischen Aufgabe, inmitten sich überlagernder Krisen und nach langem Modernisierungsstau das zu tun, was nötig ist, um auch in den kommenden Jahren Produktivität, Daseinsvorsorge und Sicherheit zu gewährleisten. Dies erfordert auch einen zielgerichteten Einsatz öffentlicher Finanzmittel. In dieser Studie haben wir versucht, die zusätzlichen öffentlichen Finanzbedarfe zur Erreichung breit akzeptierter Ziele in zentralen Zukunftsfeldern abzubilden. Unseres Wissens ist dies die umfassendste aktuelle Analyse öffentlicher Finanzbedarfe. So beziehen wir auch das Gesundheitswesen und vor allem die Großaufgabe Verteidigung mit ein. Ein solches Vorhaben geht zwangsweise mit herausfordernden Abwägungsentscheidungen und Unschärfen einher. Durch zahlreiche Konsultationen mit Expert:innen und Politiker:innen verschiedener Parteien haben wir versucht, die herausfordernden methodischen Entscheidungen in möglichst informierter und ausgewogener Weise zu treffen. Um allen Leserinnen und Lesern selbst das Urteil zu überlassen, präsentieren wir im Folgenden nicht nur Ergebnisse, sondern beschreiben auch detailliert unsere Schätzmethode für die einzelnen Bereiche. Insgesamt schätzen wir über die föderalen Ebenen hinweg einen zusätzlichen Bedarf von 782 Milliarden Euro von 2025 bis 2030. Das entspräche pro Jahr durchschnittlich circa 3 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP). Das Niveau der Staatsausgaben in Deutschland läge damit, sofern nicht an anderer Stelle gespart wird, im internationalen Vergleich in etwa auf dem Niveau der Staatsausgaben in Österreich und unter dem Finnlands. Unsere Ergebnisse stehen im Einklang mit und ergänzend zu anderen in diesem Jahr veröffentlichten Bedarfsschätzungen. Die Notwendigkeit signifikanter zusätzlicher öffentlicher Finanzmittel für die Zukunftsfähigkeit und Modernisierung des Landes kann somit zunehmend als Konsens angesehen werden. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:303029 |
| By: | Dunn, Richard A. |
| Abstract: | The economies of rural America continue to lag those in metropolitan areas with many experiencing significant hardship, but there is increasing agreement among researchers and policymakers that existing place typologies are inadequate for addressing urban-rural disparities. Because these typologies emphasize the urban end of the rural-urban continuum with rural treated as the undifferentiated residual category, the complex interaction of economic, demographic, and social factors that define rural places are ignored. To address this challenge, we have developed a data-driven approach to identify connections between places based on the spatial distribution of potential supply chain linkages to generate a new typology–Economic Catchment Areas (ECAs) thereby illuminating place-to-place connections obscured in existing place hierarchies. To do so, we construct county-to-county potential trade flows in intermediate inputs as the solution to a transportation distance loss function. Counties that would serve as the most important user of inputs for at least one other county are classified as destinations of an ECA, while all the counties for which the destination would be the largest user of their inputs are the sources of the ECA. For rural source counties, we then estimate the relationship between business, economic, demographic, and health outcomes in ECA destination counties and outcomes in their associated source counties. We find that these are positively related, highlighting the potential usefulness of the ECA framework for studying heterogeneity in economic and demographic outcomes among rural U.S. counties. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:345100 |
| By: | Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Harsh Vardhan; Akhilesh Verma (ESRI & Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of bank capital in monetary policy transmission within the Indian economy, where the banking sector is the primary channel for financial intermediation. Using a panel dataset of 18 commercial banks from 2002 to 2018, we assess how varying levels of bank capital influence monetary policy transmission. Our findings reveal that though monetary contractions reduce credit growth, yet banks holding higher capital show significantly lower sensitivity to monetary policy changes compared to those with lower capital. This effect is stronger in well-capitalized private sector banks. Our results suggest that bank capital helps mitigate the adverse impact of higher interest rates on credit supply, thereby weakening the overall effectiveness of monetary transmission. However, the buffering effect of bank capital on credit growth diminishes during periods of high nonperforming assets (NPAs). These results highlight the Reserve Bank of India's challenge in balancing financial stability with effective monetary policy implementation. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital, Monetary transmission, Balance sheet channel, Non-performing assets, Public-sector banks |
| JEL: | E4 E5 G2 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2024-019 |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam; Wolfe, Brooke; Martin, Elliot PhD |
| Abstract: | Microtransit is a technology-enabled transit service that typically employs shuttles or vans (Figure 1) to provide on-demand transportation with dynamic routing. While many rides are dispatched and paid via a smartphone, many services also provide a telephone booking option. A few services accept cash payment and street hails (similar to taxis). Variations of microtransit can include fixed schedules and routes and larger or smaller vehicles. Typically, microtransit services are operated by or provided on behalfof a government entity or nonprofit organization, although privately operated microtransit programs also might exist. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2qs445kh |
| By: | Chen, Jinyu; Zhong, Ziqi; Feng, Qindi; Liu, Lei |
| Abstract: | E-commerce has developed rapidly, and product promotion refers to how e-commerce promotes consumers' consumption activities. The demand and computational complexity in the decision-making process are urgent problems to be solved to optimize dynamic pricing decisions of the e-commerce product lines. Therefore, a Q-learning algorithm model based on the neural network is proposed on the premise of multimodal emotion information recognition and analysis, and the dynamic pricing problem of the product line is studied. The results show that a multi-modal fusion model is established through the multi-modal fusion of speech emotion recognition and image emotion recognition to classify consumers' emotions. Then, they are used as auxiliary materials for understanding and analyzing the market demand. The long short-term memory (LSTM) classifier performs excellent image feature extraction. The accuracy rate is 3.92%-6.74% higher than that of other similar classifiers, and the accuracy rate of the image single-feature optimal model is 9.32% higher than that of the speech single-feature model. |
| Keywords: | dynamic pricing; E-commerce; emotion recognition; neural network; Q-learning algorithm |
| JEL: | L81 J50 |
| Date: | 2022–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125409 |
| By: | Livia Boerner (Paderborn University); Bernd Frick Author-2-Name-First: Bernd Author-2-Name-Last: Frick (Paderborn University); Thomas Fritz Author-3-Name-First: Thomas Author-3-Name-Last: Fritz (FH Aachen) |
| Abstract: | This study examines investment decision accuracy and founder-related bias of angel investors in startup pitch competitions. We use a unique dataset of N = 638 pitches and investment decisions from televised German format Die Höhle der Löwen and evaluate subsequent venture performance based on survival and product-market fit. Building upon signal detection theory, two types of decision error are distinguished to explore investor bias. Our results suggest that angel investors are more likely to make overconfident (false positive) investments when ventures are pitched by more attractive entrepreneurs or family-based teams. Additionally, ventures pitched by younger, female, or less attractive teams are systematically underestimated, resulting in missed opportunities (false negative). Our study contributes to the literature by highlighting the impact of founder-related investor bias on the quality of their investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial finance; Investor bias; Overconfidence; Missed opportunities; Shark tank |
| JEL: | D81 D91 G24 G41 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:122 |
| By: | Pierre Levasseur (SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Claire Cambriels (CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Molly Magnier; Olga Davidenko (PNCA (UMR 0914) - Physiologie de la Nutrition et du Comportement Alimentaire - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | La régulation de la consommation de viande apparaît comme une politique publique pertinente pour limiter les émissions de gaz à effet de serre liées à l'alimentation. Cependant, l'impact réel d'une telle politique sur la santé humaine et la nutrition reste incertain, en particulier pour les strates de la population les plus défavorisées. Il est probable que ces sous-populations à risque tendent à augmenter leur consommation de produits riches en gras et en sucres lorsque la viande devient moins accessible, augmentant les risques de prise de poids, de surpoids et d'obésité. Pour tester cette hypothèse et étudier l'hétérogénéité sociale dans les choix de substitution à la viande, une expérimentation a été mise en place dans 4 restaurants universitaires parisiens dans lesquelles des journées 100% végétariennes ont été organisées. Des données d'enquête (questionnaire) et de plateau-repas (photos) ont été collectées auprès de 770 participants avant (contrefactuel) et pendant l'intervention végétarienne. En comparant les repas consommés les jours ordinaires où la viande est disponible et les jours 100% végétariens, nos premiers résultats indiquent des différences significatives dans la composition de repas allégées en viande en fonction du statut socioéconomique des étudiants (mesuré par l'échelon boursier et le niveau d'étude des parents), allant dans le sens de nos hypothèses. |
| Keywords: | Repas végétarien, viande, transition protéique, inégalités nutritionnelles, substitutions à risque |
| Date: | 2024–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04693654 |