nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2024‒07‒15
twenty-six papers chosen by

  1. Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework By Bilbiie, F. O.
  2. Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity By Chadha J. S., Samiri, I.; Samiri, I.
  3. The contribution of profits and production costs to price changes in the Polish economy By Michał Gradzewicz
  4. Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Select Emerging Markets with Currency Board Systems: Theory and Evidence By Yujuan Qiu
  5. Política monetaria contractiva en el control de la inflación: caso de estudio de las principales ciudades de Colombia By Torres, Nicolás; Villarraga, Juan-Pablo; Sánchez, Wendy; Upegui, Sebastián
  6. Pollution, public debt, and growth: The question of sustainability By Marion Davin; Mouez Fodha; Thomas Seegmuller
  7. A Novel Approach to Queue-Reactive Models: The Importance of Order Sizes By Hamza Bodor; Laurent Carlier
  8. L’encadrement des prix en France pendant les « Trente Glorieuses » : Une gestion corporatiste ? (1947-1968) By Basile Clerc
  9. An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 By Congressional Budget Office
  10. The military-industrial complex as a variety of capitalism and threat to democracy: rethinking the political economy of guns versus butter By Thomas Palley
  11. How EU membership affects foreign direct investment: Differences between EU15 and CEE countries By Bettina Meinhart
  12. Organisationaler Wandel und psychische Beanspruchung von Beschäftigten: Der vermittelnde Einfluss von Arbeitsanforderungen und Arbeitsautonomie By Martin, Alexander; Müllenborn, Tim
  13. Klimaschutz im Güterverkehr: Batterieelektrische Antriebe können günstiger mit erneuerbarem Strom versorgt werden als Wasserstoff-Lkw By Wolf-Peter Schill; Carlos David Gaete Morales; Julius Jöhrens; Florian Heining
  14. Will Southeast Asia be the next global manufacturing hub? A multiway cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses on factors influencing offshore decisions By Haibo Wang; Lutfu S. Sua; Jun Huang; Jaime Ortiz; Bahram Alidaee
  15. Revisiting Methods to Assign Responses when Race and Hispanic Origin Reporting are Discrepant Across Administrative Records and Third Party Sources By James Noon
  16. Wages and Employment in the Netherlands, 2017-2023 By Klinker, Iris; ter Weel, Bas
  17. Loss functions in regression models: Impact on profits and risk in day-ahead electricity trading By Tomasz Serafin; Rafal Weron
  18. Les assureurs français face aux risques liés à la perte de biodiversité : Enjeux et enseignements pour les organismes et leur supervision By Laurent Clerc; Elisabeth Fonteny; Delphine Irac; Aliette Dequet; Laudine Goumet
  19. Change of numeraire for weak martingale transport By Mathias Beiglb\"ock; Gudmund Pammer; Lorenz Riess
  20. Ce que fait la situation de gestion aux dispositifs : le cas des dispositifs publics de gestion des épidémies animales By François Charrier; Marc Barbier; Nathalie Raulet-Croset
  21. Inequality as an externality: consequences for tax design By Støstad, Morten Nyborg; Cowell, Frank
  22. How & Why To Use Audience Segmentation to Maximize (Listener) Demand Across Digital Music Portfolio By Kobi Abayomi
  23. On the Polarization Premium for radical parties in PR electoral systems By Anna-Sophie Kurella; Salvatore Barbaro
  24. Difference-in-Discontinuities: Estimation, Inference and Validity Tests By Pedro Picchetti; Cristine C. X. Pinto; Stephanie T. Shinoki
  25. FIW Jahresgutachten 2024 - Die österreichische Außenwirtschaft By Harald Oberhofer; Vasily Astrov; Robert Stehrer; Yvonne Wolfmayr
  26. California Traffic Safety Survey 2024: Data Analysis and Comparison with 2010-2023 Survey Data Results By Ewald & Wasserman Research

  1. By: Bilbiie, F. O.
    Abstract: THANK is a tractable heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model that captures analytically core micro heterogeneity channels of quantitative-HANK: cyclical inequality and risk; self-insurance, pre-cautionary saving, and realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. I use it to elucidate key transmission mechanisms and dynamic properties of HANK models. Countercyclical inequality yields aggregate-demand amplification and makes determinacy with Taylor rules more stringent; but solving the forward guidance puzzle requires procyclical inequality: a Catch-22. Solutions include combining inequality with a distinct risk channel, with compensating cyclicalities; I provide evidence that disposable income inequality was procyclical in the last two, Great and COVID recessions, while risk is countercyclical. Alternative policy rules also solve the Catch-22, e.g. price-level-targeting or, in the model version with liquidity, setting nominal public debt. Optimal policy with heterogeneity features a novel inequality-stabilization motive generating higher inflation volatility—but is unaffected by risk, insofar as the target efficient equilibrium entails no inequality.
    Keywords: Determinacy, Forward Guidance Puzzle, Heterogeneity, Inequality, Interest Rate Rules, Liquidity, Multipliers, Optimal Monetary Policy, Risk
    JEL: E21 E31 E40 E44 E50 E52 E58 E60 E62
    Date: 2024–06–13
  2. By: Chadha J. S., Samiri, I.; Samiri, I.
    Abstract: We investigate UK labour productivity over the long run, comparing it to other advanced economies and focus on the sharp slowdown since the global financial crisis. Using a growth accounting framework, we find a dominant role for total factor productivity (TFP), but it turns out that capital shallowing is also important. Two macroeconomic trends deepen the puzzle of this slowdown. There has been a decline in real interest rates over the past 30 years and an increase in labour supply since 2008, both of which ought to have increased investment. And yet, the ratio of (nominal) private and public investment to GDP has fallen over time. We go on to examine the UK’s productivity performance through the lens of standard neoclassical models and reconsider the secular stagnation debate in the UK context. Finally, we survey several explanations from recent economic literature for the poor performance of investment.
    Keywords: Productivity, Macroeconomics, Real Interest Rates, Investment
    JEL: E22 E24 E32 E44 E51 E62 O16 O42 O47
    Date: 2024–06–27
  3. By: Michał Gradzewicz (Narodowy Bank Polski; SGH Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: A recent discussion on the sources of inflation rise in the period 2022- 2023 highlights the role of non-labor components of GDP deflator, calling them profits. The aim of our analysis is to measure profits more carefully, separating them from the cost of capital and to assess their contribution to changes of different measures of prices in the economy. We show that material costs (and especially the prices of materials) are the most important source of variation of gross output deflator, responsible for over 50% of its variance in the period 1997-2022. The role of profits in general, and after the pandemic in particular, differs between various price measures. They are contributing high to the increases of value added deflator in the period 2021-2023, whereas their contribution to gross output deflator is muted. Labor costs (of which wages are relatively more important than unit efficiency of hours) are an important contribution to both output and value added deflators. The contribution of capital is less important, with a more balanced contributions of capital price and unit efficiency. Moreover, we stress that the most attempts to assess the role of profits in the evolution of prices are based on approximate decompositions. We show that the contributions calculated without the approximation error indicate a lower, although still significant, contribution of profits to price increases in the period 2021-2022. We also present how the cost (or profit) components correlate with prices and we highlight the differences in the role of various components across industries.
    Keywords: profits, capital costs, rental costs of capital, capital share, sources of inflation
    JEL: D24 E01 E22 E31
    Date: 2024
  4. By: Yujuan Qiu
    Abstract: This paper investigates some indicators of financial development in select countries with currency board systems and raises some questions about the connection between financial development and growth in currency board systems. Most of those cases are long past episodes of what we would now call emerging markets. However, the paper also looks at Hong Kong, the currency board system that is one of the world's largest and most advanced financial markets. The global financial crisis of 2008 09 created doubts about the efficiency of financial markets in advanced economies, including in Hong Kong, and unsettled the previous consensus that a large financial sector would be more stable than a smaller one.
    Date: 2024–06
  5. By: Torres, Nicolás; Villarraga, Juan-Pablo; Sánchez, Wendy; Upegui, Sebastián
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of a contractionary monetary policy on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Colombia and its 13 main cities between January 2001 and February 2020. For this purpose, Vector Autoregression models (VAR) are used, from which impulse-response functions are obtained. Among the results, it is found that, in the face of a shock, the CPI in most cities begins to fall strongly between months 19 and 20, and loses statistical significance in general in months 23 and 24. Likewise, the CPI of Manizales and Villavicencio has a higher reaction speed in the face of an innovation in interest rates, which could suggest that the credibility of the Central Bank differs between cities.
    Keywords: inflation; contractionary monetary policy; shocks
    JEL: E43 E58 E63 N16
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Marion Davin (CEE-M, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, INRAE, SupAgro, Montpellier, France); Mouez Fodha (Paris School of Economics and University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Thomas Seegmuller (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France)
    Abstract: This paper examines an endogenous growth model that allows us to consider the dynamics and sustainability of debt, pollution, and growth. Debt evolves according to the financing adaptation and mitigation efforts and to the damages caused by pollution. Three types of features are important for our analysis: The technology through the negative effect of pollution on TFP; The fiscal policy; The initial level of pollution and debt with respect to capital. Indeed, if the initial level of pollution is too high, the economy is relegated to an endogenous tipping zone where pollution perpetually increases relatively to capital. If the effect of pollution on TFP is too strong, the economy cannot converge to a stable and sustainable long-run balanced growth path. If the income tax rates are high enough, we can converge to a stable balanced growth path with low pollution and high debt relative to capital. This sustainable equilibrium can even be characterized by higher growth and welfare. This last result underlines the role that tax policy can play in reconciling debt and environmental sustainability.
    Keywords: Environmental damage, pollution, fiscal policy, public debt, sustainability
    JEL: E60 H63 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2024–06
  7. By: Hamza Bodor; Laurent Carlier
    Abstract: In this article, we delve into the applications and extensions of the queue-reactive model for the simulation of limit order books. Our approach emphasizes the importance of order sizes, in conjunction with their type and arrival rate, by integrating the current state of the order book to determine, not only the intensity of order arrivals and their type, but also their sizes. These extensions generate simulated markets that are in line with numerous stylized facts of the market. Our empirical calibration, using futures on German bonds, reveals that the extended queue-reactive model significantly improves the description of order flow properties and the shape of queue distributions. Moreover, our findings demonstrate that the extended model produces simulated markets with a volatility comparable to historical real data, utilizing only endogenous information from the limit order book. This research underscores the potential of the queue-reactive model and its extensions in accurately simulating market dynamics and providing valuable insights into the complex nature of limit order book modeling.
    Date: 2024–05
  8. By: Basile Clerc
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the analysis of corporatism in post-World War II economic policies in France. Focusing on the “Comité National des Prix” (National Price Committee, CNP), in which employee and employer unions debate price-control decisions, we show that, despite appearances, this institution and, hence, price policy, cannot be considered a form of corporatism. Two elements support this thesis. First, decisions to freeze prices, which were particularly frequent in the 1950s, were systematically adopted despite the joint opposition of the two main trade unions: the CGT and the CNPF. Second, the "contractual turn" in pricing policy in the 1960s, inspired by corporatist thinking and reflections on "incomes policy", took place despite a structural opposition between employee and employer unions. The ambition of a "corporatist turn" in planning in the 1960s was thus thwarted by the persistence of major union antagonisms, as much as by the verticality of decision-making on pricing.
    Keywords: Price control ; corporatism ; incomes policy
    JEL: N00
    Date: 2024
  9. By: Congressional Budget Office
    Abstract: CBO describes its projections for the federal budget and the U.S. economy under current law for this year and the decade that follows. In those projections, the budget deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year and $22 trillion over the 2025–2034 period. Federal debt held by the public reaches 122 percent of GDP in 2034, the largest federal debt relative to the size of the economy ever recorded. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 as inflation eases slightly and the federal funds rate remains steady. In 2025 and later years, rates of economic growth and inflation moderate.
    JEL: E20 E23 E60 E62 E66 H20 H60 H61 H62 H63 H68
    Date: 2024–06–18
  10. By: Thomas Palley
    Abstract: This paper examines the military-industrial complex (MIC), which is a prototype widely imitated by other business sectors. Collectively, they constitute a variety of capitalism which can be termed the poly-industrial complex (PIC). Understanding the MIC is critical to understanding contemporary US capitalism, US international policy, and the drift toward Cold War II. The MIC exerts a massive societal impact. It twists economic activity toward military spending; twists the character of technical progress; is socially corrosive via its capture of politics and government; twists societal understanding of geopolitics to increase demand for war services; promotes militarism and increases the likelihood of war; and promotes proto-fascist drift because militarism drips back into national politics. Given those features, the MIC is of first-order significance and the consequences of failure to understand it are likely to be grim. Politics is at the center of possibilities for change. That raises questions whether the demand for change can be mustered, and whether the political system will permit it.
    Keywords: Military-industrial complex, war, miltarism, Neoliberalism, Neoconservatism, fascism
    JEL: D74 F51 H56 P10
    Date: 2024–06
  11. By: Bettina Meinhart
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of membership in the European Union on foreign direct investments (FDI). In contrast to previous studies, the overall effect of EU membership is disaggregated by countries that joined the EU before 2004 (EU15) and those that joined after 2004 (CEE). This disaggregation is motivated by differences between the two groups in terms of their historical background, GDP levels, and motives for FDI. Furthermore, the effects of EU membership are estimated at the country level. Using a structural FDI gravity model and applying recent advances in the gravity estimation literature, it is shown that membership of the EU has a substantial positive impact on both inward and outward FDI stocks. In particular, there is considerable heterogeneity in the impact of EU membership, with EU15 countries experiencing mainly an increase in inward FDI, while CEE countries experience a surge in outward FDI.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investments, Structural Gravity Model, Europian Union membership
    JEL: F21 F36 O52 C33
  12. By: Martin, Alexander; Müllenborn, Tim
    Abstract: Als Belastungsfaktor scheint organisationaler Wandel in nicht unerheblichem Maße zu einer psychischen Beanspruchung von Beschäftigten und einer Verminderung ihres Wohlbefindens beizutragen. Hierbei stellt sich unter anderen die Frage, wie genau organisationaler Wandel das Wohlbefinden von Beschäftigten beeinflusst. In dieser Arbeit wird der vermittelnde Einfluss von Arbeitsanforderung und Arbeitsautonomie auf den Zusammenhang zwischen organisationalem Wandel und psychischer Beanspruchung betrachtet. Mittels Daten der BIBB/BAuA-Erwerbstätigenbefragungen aus den Jahren 2012 und 2018 wurde dieser Zusammenhang getestet. Die Ergebnisse legen den Schluss nahe, dass organisationaler Wandel sowohl einen direkten negativen Einfluss auf das psychische Wohlbefinden von Beschäftigten besitzt als auch mit einer Erhöhung der an sie gestellten Arbeitsanforderungen einhergeht. Gleichzeitig führen erhöhte Arbeitsanforderungen zu einer Verringerung des psychischen Wohlbefindens, während sich eine Erhöhung der Arbeitsautonomie positiv auf das Wohlbefinden von Beschäftigten auswirkt. Vor diesem Hintergrund sollten Organisationen ihre Beschäftigten durch die Zurücknahme übertriebener Arbeitsanforderungen und die Einräumung weitreichender Entscheidungsspielräume psychisch entlasten.
    Keywords: Organisationaler Wandel, Psychische Beanspruchung, Arbeitsanforderungen, Arbeitsautonomie, Quantitative Untersuchung
    Date: 2024
  13. By: Wolf-Peter Schill; Carlos David Gaete Morales; Julius Jöhrens; Florian Heining
    Abstract: Um die Klimaziele zu erreichen, müssen die Treibausgasemissionen im Straßengüterverkehr deutlich reduziert werden. Hierfür werden verschiedene Möglichkeiten diskutiert, vor allem der verstärkte Einsatz von batterieelektrischen Fahrzeugen oder solchen mit Wasserstoff-Brennstoffzellen. Eine Studie von Forschern des DIW Berlin und des Instituts für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg (ifeu) zeigt, dass batterieelektrische Lkw deutlich kostengünstiger mit erneuerbarem Strom betrieben werden können als Alternativen mit Wasserstoff oder E-Fuels. Eine optimierte Aufladung der Fahrzeugbatterien verstärkt diesen Vorteil zusätzlich. Obwohl Wasserstoff vergleichsweise günstig gespeichert werden kann, überwiegen seine Nachteile bei der Energieeffizienz. Auch mit Blick auf den Stromsektor spricht somit vieles dafür, dass die Bundesregierung den Markthochlauf direkt elektrifizierter Schwerlastfahrzeuge gezielt fördern sollte. Durch geeignete Infrastruktur und Preissignale sollten dabei Anreize für ein möglichst optimiertes Laden der Fahrzeugbatterien sowie eine Rückspeisung ins Netz geschaffen werden.
    Date: 2024
  14. By: Haibo Wang; Lutfu S. Sua; Jun Huang; Jaime Ortiz; Bahram Alidaee
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has compelled multinational corporations to diversify their global supply chain risk and to relocate their factories to Southeast Asian countries beyond China. Such recent phenomena provide a good opportunity to understand the factors that influenced offshore decisions in the last two decades. We propose a new conceptual framework based on econometric approaches to examine the relationships between these factors. Firstly, the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) for multi-way cointegration analysis by a Johansen test as well as the embedding Granger causality analysis to examine offshore decisions--innovation, technology readiness, infrastructure, foreign direct investment (FDI), and intermediate imports. Secondly, a Quantile Vector Autoregressive (QVAR) model is used to assess the dynamic connectedness among Southeast Asian countries based on the offshore factors. This study explores a system-wide experiment to evaluate the spillover effects of offshore decisions. It reports a comprehensive analysis using time-series data collected from the World Bank. The results of the cointegration, causality, and dynamic connectedness analyses show that a subset of Southeast Asian countries have spillover effects on each other. These countries present a multi-way cointegration and dynamic connectedness relationship. The study contributes to policymaking by providing a data-driven innovative approach through a new conceptual framework.
    Date: 2024–06
  15. By: James Noon
    Abstract: The Best Race and Ethnicity Administrative Records Composite file (“Best Race file”) is an composite file which combines Census, federal, and Third Party Data (TPD) sources and applies business rules to assign race and ethnicity values to person records. The first version of the Best Race administrative records composite was first constructed in 2015 and subsequently updated each year to include more recent vintages, when available, of the data sources originally included in the composite file. Where updates were available for data sources, the most recent information for persons was retained, and the business rules were reapplied to assign a single race and single Hispanic origin value to each person record. The majority of person records on the Best Race file have consistent race and ethnicity information across data sources. Where there are discrepancies in responses across data sources, we apply a series of business rules to assign a single race and ethnicity to each record. To improve the quality of the Best Race administrative records composite, we have begun revising the business rules which were developed several years ago. This paper discusses the original business rules as well as the implemented changes and their impact on the composite file.
    Date: 2024–05
  16. By: Klinker, Iris (SEO Amsterdam); ter Weel, Bas (SEO Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This research documents changes in employment and wages in the Netherlands for different types of workers. We compare 2017 to 2023 using regression-adjusted wages to make sure changes in composition of the workforce do not influence our estimates. The research period has been characterised by high labour demand, negative supply shocks, high levels of inflation and economic lockdowns, all of which have contributed to substantial labour-market dynamics. Our findings suggest that employment has been growing by 2 percent in the period 2017-2023, of which 1.8 percent has been due to additional workers finding employment. Women have experienced the largest increase in employment, while the employment of men on temporary contracts has slightly fallen. Wages have been rising for workers at the bottom of the wage distribution. From the median of the wage distribution onwards real gross hourly wages have been fallen. The most likely explanation for rising wages at the bottom is the stepwise increase in minimum wages enforced by new labour-market legislation.
    Keywords: employment, inflation, wages, COVID-19
    JEL: E24 E31 J21 J31
    Date: 2024–06
  17. By: Tomasz Serafin; Rafal Weron
    Abstract: We study the impact of the loss function used to estimate the parameters of a regression-type model on profits and risk in day-ahead electricity trading. To provide practical insights, we consider a strategy that incorporates battery storage and includes realistic operating costs in the calculation of revenues. Using data from the German market covering both the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy crisis, we provide evidence that minimizing absolute errors is the preferred option, as forecasts based on this loss function repeatedly and in the majority of cases outperform trading decisions based on predictions from models estimated using squared, percentage, or asymmetric losses. In addition, we find that predicting price spreads between a pair of hours, instead of predicting prices for each hour separately, yields higher profits and generally higher Sharpe ratios.
    Keywords: Electricity price forecast; Day-ahead market; Loss function; Trading strategy; Battery storage; Sharpe ratio
    JEL: C22 C51 C53 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2024
  18. By: Laurent Clerc; Elisabeth Fonteny; Delphine Irac; Aliette Dequet; Laudine Goumet
    Abstract: Cet article a pour objet de présenter les principaux enjeux et canaux de transmissions du risque de perte de biodiversité pour le secteur de l’assurance. Si l’activité d’assurance, en tant que telle, dépend directement peu des services écosystémiques et a un impact très limité sur la perte de biodiversité, les assureurs y sont néanmoins potentiellement significativement exposés de façon indirecte : d’une part, du fait de leurs placements ou investissements dans des entreprises fortement dépendantes des services écosystémiques, ce qui les expose à des risques sur le rendement de leurs actifs ainsi qu’à des risques de crédit ou de contrepartie ; d’autre part, du fait de la fourniture de services d’assurance ou de réassurance à ces entreprises fortement dépendantes des services écosystémiques ou ayant un impact néfaste sur la biodiversité et donc exposées à des risques de pertes financières. Cet article dresse également un premier bilan des remises des assureurs soumis à des exigences de publication en matière de risque de perte de biodiversité dans le contexte de la mise en œuvre du règlement européen SFDR (Sustainable finance disclosure regulation) et de l’article 29 de la Loi énergie climat, qui reste en avance de phase par rapport au marché. Il en ressort que le secteur de l’assurance en France a progressé dans sa prise en compte du risque de biodiversité mais reste confronté à des difficultés majeures, liées notamment à : la compréhension de la notion de « dépendance à des services écosystémiques », qui s’applique effectivement mal aux intermédiaires financiers ; la complexité à évaluer les impacts financiers et non financiers d’une notion difficile à mesurer, en l’absence de méthodologie ou d’indicateurs consensuels et du fait de ses caractéristiques propres (présence de non-linéarité et d’irréversibilité, non-substituabilité, dynamiques à la fois mondiales et très localisées…). L’article conclut par quelques recommandations visant à améliorer la prise en compte, la transparence et la qualité des publications des assureurs en matière de risque de biodiversité.
    Keywords: biodiversité ; services écosystémiques ; assurance ; reporting extra-financier ; réglementation financière.
    JEL: G11 G14 G22 Q20 Q30 Q57
    Date: 2024
  19. By: Mathias Beiglb\"ock; Gudmund Pammer; Lorenz Riess
    Abstract: Change of numeraire is a classical tool in mathematical finance. Campi-Laachir-Martini established its applicability to martingale optimal transport. We note that the results of Campi-Laachir-Martini extend to the case of weak martingale transport. We apply this to shadow couplings, continuous time martingale transport problems in the framework of Huesmann-Trevisan and in particular to establish the correspondence between stretched Brownian motion with its geometric counterpart. Note: We emphasize that we learned about the geometric stretched Brownian motion gSBM (defined in PDE terms) in a presentation of Loeper \cite{Lo23} before our work on this topic started. We noticed that a change of numeraire transformation in the spirit of \cite{CaLaMa14} allows for an alternative viewpoint in the weak optimal transport framework. We make our work public following the publication of Backhoff-Loeper-Obloj's work \cite{BaLoOb24} on The article \cite{BaLoOb24} derives gSBM using PDE techniques as well as through an independent probabilistic approach which is close to the one we give in the present article.
    Date: 2024–06
  20. By: François Charrier (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel); Marc Barbier (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel); Nathalie Raulet-Croset (IAE Paris - Sorbonne Business School)
    Abstract: Dans un contexte d'évolution de la gouvernance sanitaire en France, cet article déploie une réflexion sur la dynamique des dispositifs publics de gestion des épidémies animales dans les secteurs de l'élevage, porteuses d'incertitudes et souvent de crises de gouvernance (« vache folle », « grippe aviaire », fièvre aphteuse…). Dans ces situations complexes, interorganisationnelles, marquées par l'incertitude et par des temporalités resserrées de gestion, l'activité organisatrice et managériale est permanente, et l'enjeu est de caractériser et comprendre la dynamique des dispositifs de gestion mis en oeuvre. Afin de réaliser une cartographie fine et dynamique des dispositifs, les auteurs s'appuient, d'une part, sur le cadre théorique de l'« analyse dispositionnelle » développé par des relectures récentes de la notion de dispositif de Michel Foucault. D'autre part, ils ancrent cette analyse dans la perspective, micro et située, du day to day administering, en mobilisant la notion de situation de gestion de Jacques Girin. Ils font ainsi l'hypothèse que la situation de gestion est un site de recombinaison intense des dispositifs, et qu'elle offre un cadre d'interprétation de leur dynamique. La méthodologie repose sur une analyse longitudinale et comparée de trois situations de gestion de maladies animales sur un territoire spécifique (une crise sanitaire, la réémergence d'une maladie et une situation de maladie endémique).L'analyse révèle une architecture de dispositifs sanitaires dont les articulations changent avec l'évolution de la situation de gestion. Trois modalités de recombinaison sont identifiées, fondées sur le mécanisme de problématisation et la participation des acteurs. L'article montre l'articulation complexe entre l'évolution de la situation et la dynamique des dispositifs, et produit des pistes de réflexion pour construire une gouvernance plus robuste des problèmes publics de santé animale, articulant posture situationnelle et posture planificatrice.
    Keywords: Dispositifs de gestion, Situation de gestion, Analyse dispositionnelle, Gestion publique, Santé animale, Etude longitudinale, Gouvernance sanitaire
    Date: 2024–06–01
  21. By: Støstad, Morten Nyborg; Cowell, Frank
    Abstract: Economic inequality may affect a wide range of societal outcomes, for example crime rates, economic growth, and political polarization. In this paper we discuss how to model such effects in welfarist frameworks. Our main suggestion is to treat economic inequality itself as an externality, which has wide-ranging implications for classical economic theory. We show this through the Mirrlees (1971) optimal non-linear income taxation model, where we focus on a post-tax income inequality externality. Optimal top marginal tax rates are particularly affected by the externality, implying a novel equality dimension to optimal top tax rate design. We propose that inequality's externality properties may have larger optimal top tax rate implications than standard revenue concerns; our model thus provides a theoretical basis for real-world governmental tax choices that seem irrational under standard optimal taxation models. We also show that the total inequality aversion implied by the current U.S. tax system is insufficient to accommodate both social welfare weights that are decreasing in income and a significant concern for inequality's externality effects.
    Keywords: externalities; inequality; optimal income taxation; welfare
    JEL: H21 H23 D62
    Date: 2024–07–01
  22. By: Kobi Abayomi
    Abstract: Digital delivery of songs has radically changed the way people can enjoy music, the sort of music available for listening, and the manner by which rights holders are compensated for their contributions to songs. Listeners enjoy an unlimited potpourri of sounds, uniquely free of incremental acquisition or switching costs which have been replaced by subscription or rentier fees. This regime shift has revealed listening patterns governed by affinity, boredom, attention budget, etc.: instantaneous, dynamic, organic or programmatic song selection. This regime shift in demand availability -- with the commensurate translation of revenue implications -- deprecates current orthodoxy for content curation. The impulse to point-of-sale model is insufficient in a regime where demand revenue is proportional to demand affinity and each are strongly dependent time series processes. We explore strategies & implications -- which are generalizable to any media rights holding firm -- from a prediction & optimization point of view for two straightforward demand models.
    Date: 2024–06
  23. By: Anna-Sophie Kurella (University of Mannheim, Germany); Salvatore Barbaro (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)
    Abstract: Western democracies are grappling with escalating political polarization. While scholars have explored various societal and economic factors contributing to this phenomenon, the influence of the electoral system has received limited attention. In this paper, we argue that the use of the proportional representation system (PR), a common electoral approach, contributes to the rise in polarization. PR systems prioritize voters’ top preferences, allowing candidates to increase their electoral support even as the proportion of citizens strongly opposed to them grows. We formally demonstrate that PR systems incentivize candidates and parties to adopt extreme positions, a trend discouraged under the Borda count system. Using the Borda count as a benchmark, our empirical analyses with data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) confirm that polarizing candidates, often positioned at ideological extremes, benefit under PR voting rules. Our study reveals an additional asymmetric effect of PR systems, which disproportionately favors right-leaning polarizing candidates. This phenomenon is attributed to the more pronounced disagreement that far-right ideology provokes among moderate and left-leaning citizens compared to radical left ideologies.
    Keywords: Elections, Voting Schemes, Political Polarization, Proportional Representation
    JEL: D71
    Date: 2024–06–14
  24. By: Pedro Picchetti; Cristine C. X. Pinto; Stephanie T. Shinoki
    Abstract: This paper investigates the econometric theory behind the newly developed difference-in-discontinuities design (DiDC). Despite its increasing use in applied research, there are currently limited studies of its properties. The method combines elements of regression discontinuity (RDD) and difference-in-differences (DiD) designs, allowing researchers to eliminate the effects of potential confounders at the discontinuity. We formalize the difference-in-discontinuity theory by stating the identification assumptions and proposing a nonparametric estimator, deriving its asymptotic properties and examining the scenarios in which the DiDC has desirable bias properties when compared to the standard RDD. We also provide comprehensive tests for one of the identification assumption of the DiDC. Monte Carlo simulation studies show that the estimators have good performance in finite samples. Finally, we revisit Grembi et al. (2016), that studies the effects of relaxing fiscal rules on public finance outcomes in Italian municipalities. The results show that the proposed estimator exhibits substantially smaller confidence intervals for the estimated effects.
    Date: 2024–05
  25. By: Harald Oberhofer; Vasily Astrov; Robert Stehrer; Yvonne Wolfmayr
    Abstract: Im Jahr 2023 konnte sich die österreichischen Exporteure trotz schwierigen globalen Umfeldes gut behaupten und Exportmarktanteile zulegen. Heuer und im nächsten Jahr prognostiziert das FIW ein preisbereinigtes Exportwachstum von 2, 2% und 3, 2%.
    Keywords: international trade, Austrian Foreign Trade, Economic Outlook Austria
    Date: 2024–02
  26. By: Ewald & Wasserman Research
    Abstract: The 2024 California Traffic Safety Public Opinion Study was conducted on behalf of the California Office of Traffic Safety (OTS) and the Safe Transportation Research and Education Center of UC Berkeley (SafeTREC), using an online self-administered survey. Similar to previous years of the study, the survey panelists were provided through Marketing Services Group, a commercial sample and panel vendor. To ensure a comparable sample disposition to previous years of data collection, six quota groups were set for age and gender groups based on the California census and previous waves of the Traffic Safety Study. The eligibility criteria for participating in the study included a valid California driver’s license, living in California and being 18 years or older. Screened and eligible respondents were forwarded to a brief 10-minute online survey programmed and managed by E&W. A total of 2, 507 responses were collected in May and June, 2024. The survey findings of the 2024 Traffic Safety Public Opinion Study, together with a comparison to previous years of data collection are outlined in this report.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2024–06–01

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.