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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei |
| Abstract: | We argue that the mainstream macroeconomic models (DSGE-models) are models that operate like “watches”, while behavioural macroeconomic models operate like “clouds”. We define what this means. We contrast the predic ons these two simple canonical macroeconomic models make about the transmission of supply shocks. We find that in the cloud model the fog surrounding the transmission of these shocks is much denser than in the watch model, making it difficult to make condi onal forecasts. |
| Keywords: | behavioural macroeconomics; supply shock; cloud model; watch model; heuristics |
| JEL: | D84 D91 E17 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137712 |
| By: | Shutao Cao (Department of Economics, Trent University); Yahong Zhang (Department of Economics, University of Windsor) |
| Abstract: | We build a two-agent New Keynesian (TANK) model, augmented with the central bank balance sheet and government budget constraint, to quantify macroeconomic effects of the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. The model is calibrated to the Canadian economy, and shock processes are estimated. The model closely replicates the observed dynamics of the economy over the pandemic period. Counterfactual experiments reveal that transfer payments played a key role in cushioning the initial contraction by supporting the consumption of hand-to-mouth (HtM) households, while forward guidance and quantitative easing strengthen these effects through the investment channel and by forestalling a severe deflationary episode. At the same time, the prolonged maintenance of low policy interest rate, in conjunction with large-scale fiscal transfers, contributed substantially to the post-pandemic surge in inflation. We show that an earlier normalization of monetary policy would have significantly reduced post-pandemic inflation at only modest cost to output, suggesting that a more gradual tightening path could have reduced the need for the aggressive interest rate increases that followed. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, monetary policy, inflation, pandemic |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wis:wpaper:2602 |
| By: | Tom Roullier; Justin Larouzée (CRC - Centre de recherche sur les Risques et les Crises - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres) |
| Abstract: | In a globalized world, industrial risks linked to the hazard potential of physic-chemical and/or biological processes and phenomena transcend borders, yet there are disparities in regulations leading to differences in risk management practices and hence protection worldwide. This article examines the factors that can explain and influence the diversity of regulations governing industrial and natural hazards in different countries. The analysis shows that differences can be explained by three main factors: (1) political systems, (2) economic priorities and (3) cultural and historical legacies. These disparities raise questions about risk management in multinational companies and international cooperation. While total harmonization seems both impossible and undesirable, the study recommends a middle way of strengthened and flexible international cooperation, respecting local specificities while promoting the sharing of expertise. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05533221 |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Keith Kuester; Gernot J. Müller; Sebastian Schmidt; Ben Schumann |
| Abstract: | We confront the notion that flexible exchange rates insulate countries from external disturbances with new evidence for the euro area (EA) and 20 of its neighbors. Using high-frequency data, we first establish that countries with flexible exchange rates (“floats”) let their currencies depreciate in response to EA monetary policy shocks, while“pegs” raise interest rates. Yet at business cycle frequency, these depreciations do not translate into insulation: floats contract just as much as pegs—not only in response to monetary policy shocks but also to other shocks originating in the EA. This result appears puzzling in light of received wisdom, but we show that it can be rationalized within a state-of-the-art HANK model and flesh out the underlying transmission channels. |
| Keywords: | Exchange-rate regime, Insulation, External shock, Exchange-rate disconnect, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | F41 F42 E31 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0096 |
| By: | Lorie Logan |
| Abstract: | Statement issued following the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. |
| Keywords: | Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; dissent |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddsp:103183 |
| By: | Benjamin Knox; Annette Vissing-Jorgensen |
| Abstract: | We survey and extend work on the Federal Reserve’s effect on the stock market, focusing on three empirical findings: The effect of monetary policy surprises in a narrow window around announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the pre-FOMC announcement drift, and the FOMC cycle in stock returns. We discuss the magnitude of the Fed’s impact (directional effects or effects on average stock returns), the types of shocks coming from the Fed (pure monetary policy shocks, reaction function news, or information about the Fed’s view of the economy), and the asset pricing channels through which effects emerge (an equity premia for news from the Fed, or changes to yields, equity premia, or expected dividends). We also consider the information transmission (communication) channels. The Fed’s effect on the stock market is large, even for average stock returns earned over periods of several decades. Fed-induced changes to both yields and equity premia play substantial roles, with less direct evidence available regarding cash flows. For stocks, reaction function news appears to be more important than Fed information effects. Communication flows outside announcements windows are important. |
| Keywords: | asset pricing; monetary policy transmission; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); monetary policy communication; risk premiums |
| JEL: | E52 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103197 |
| By: | Lillian Han; Ali Ozdagli; Dylan Ryfe |
| Abstract: | Despite asset managers playing an increasingly pivotal role in investment decisions—leading to more similar portfolios—analysis of life insurance firms and their advisers reveals a relatively small threat to financial stability. |
| Keywords: | asset managers; banking; finance; insurance companies |
| Date: | 2025–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:101536 |
| By: | Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile; Lappe, Marie-Sophie; Manu, Ana-Simona; Rößler, Denise; Schupp, Fabian; Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shocks have comparable effects on realized variables such as gas prices and actual inflation. By contrast, LNG supply shocks play a more limited role in shaping inflation expectations. Precautionary demand and industrial demand shocks also emerge as important drivers of inflation dynamics. This reflects both the forward-looking nature of precautionary shocks, which capture changes in investor sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic relevance of industrial demand shocks, whose effects extend beyond the gas market. JEL Classification: C50, C54, E44, Q43 |
| Keywords: | demand shocks, gas price, inflation-linked swaps, local projections, supply shocks |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263227 |
| By: | Lagarda, Guillermo; Verastegui Lira, Paulina |
| Abstract: | Does Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey-listing disrupt cross-border financial flows? The answer is not obvious. Grey-listing imposes no formal transaction restrictions, yet it can trigger compliance responses by financial institutions facing heightened regulatory risk and the prospect of future blacklisting. Identification is further complicated by anticipation, as firms may adjust during the evaluation process, attenuating observed changes at the time of designation. We combine banking transactions, balance-of-payments capital flows, and foreign-exchange data with complementary identification strategies to isolate the incremental impact of formal grey-listing. To address high-dimensional confounding and separate medium-run adjustments from announcement-driven dynamics, we pair Double Debiased Machine Learning estimates in a fixed-effects panel with a Regression Discontinuity in Time design that exploits the sharp publication timing of FATF decisions. Across approaches, grey-listing produces economically meaningful contractions in inflows: banking and capital inflows fall by 1.3--2.6 percent of quarterly GDP, while outflow responses are smaller and less robust. Regression discontinuity estimates corroborate these results, showing a 1.2--1.4 percentage point drop in inflows at the listing cutoff. Delisting triggers only partial recovery (40--70 percent), consistent with persistent frictions in correspondent banking relationships. |
| Keywords: | FATF grey-listing;International Financial Regulation;Compliance;Correspondent banking |
| JEL: | C14 F21 F36 F38 G15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14581 |
| By: | Alain Dudoit; Tony Labillois; Anne-Marie Hubert |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that Canada has reached a tipping point in the evolution of its digital governance: the conditions are now in place to move from sectoral intergovernmental cooperation toward a coordinated capacity for action based on public data interoperability and the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Building on the precedent set by the 2025 federal—provincial—territorial (FPT) cybersecurity agreement concluded in Kananaskis, the analysis shows that securing systems is only a first step. The full value of digital investments now depends on governments’ ability to enable the secure, governed, and targeted circulation of data across jurisdictions. In this context, interoperability should not be understood as a technical issue, but as a strategic infrastructure shaping economic performance, public service delivery, and the public sector capacity to anticipate and act. The paper identifies a structural constraint: despite ambitious strategies and concrete AI use cases, the fragmentation of public data systems limits potential gains and prevents the emergence of systems-wide effects. This fragmentation reflects not a technological deficit, but an institutional and governance gap, particularly in terms of trust mechanisms at the FPT level. Drawing on international experience, particularly from the European Union and Australia, the paper demonstrates the feasibility of a federated model based on shared standards , joint governance mechanisms, and targeted mutualization of capabilities, without centralizing data. On this basis, it introduces a prototype FPT framework agreement designed as an operational foundation for intergovernmental negotiation. The proposal combines guiding principles, governance architecture, technical and legal instruments, and a phased implementation approach. It seeks to reconcile jurisdictional autonomy with collective capacity, notably through mechanisms such as interoperability assessments, regulatory sandboxes, and structured sectoral data-sharing agreements. The paper concludes that Canada does not face a diagnostic gap, but a coordination imperative. In a global environment shaped by technological dependencies and the growing centrality of data, the ability to organize public data as a federated interoperable architecture is becoming a key determinant of sovereignty, resilience, and long-term prosperity. Cet article soutient que le Canada se trouve à un point de bascule dans l’évolution de sa gouvernance numérique : les conditions sont désormais réunies pour passer d’une coopération intergouvernementale sectorielle à une capacité d’action coordonnée fondée sur l’interopérabilité des données publiques et l’adoption responsable de l’intelligence artificielle (IA). S’appuyant sur le précédent structurant de l’accord fédéral–provincial–territorial (FPT) sur la cybersécurité conclu à Kananaskis en 2025, l’analyse montre que la protection des systèmes ne constitue qu’une première étape. La pleine valeur des investissements numériques dépend de la capacité des gouvernements à permettre une circulation sécurisée, gouvernée et ciblée des données entre juridictions. Dans ce contexte, l’interopérabilité n’apparaît pas comme un enjeu technique, mais comme une infrastructure stratégique conditionnant la performance économique, la qualité des services publics et la capacité d’anticipation du secteur public. L’article met en évidence une contrainte structurelle : malgré l’existence de stratégies ambitieuses et de cas d’usage concrets en matière d’IA, la fragmentation des systèmes de données limite les gains potentiels et empêche l’émergence d’effets systémiques. Cette fragmentation constitue moins un déficit technologique qu’un déficit d’architecture institutionnelle et de mécanismes de confiance à l’échelle FPT. À partir d’une analyse comparative d’expériences internationales, notamment en Europe et en Australie, l’article démontre la faisabilité d’un modèle fédéré reposant sur des normes communes, des mécanismes de gouvernance partagée et une mutualisation ciblée des capacités, sans centralisation des données. Sur cette base, il propose un prototype d’accord-cadre FPT conçu comme une base opérationnelle de concertation intergouvernementale. Cet avant-projet articule des principes structurants, une architecture de gouvernance, des instruments techniques et juridiques, ainsi que des mécanismes de mise en œuvre progressive. Il vise à concilier autonomie des juridictions et capacité d’action collective, en introduisant des dispositifs tels que l’évaluation de l’interopérabilité, les bacs à sable et des accords sectoriels d’échange de données encadrés. L’article conclut que le Canada ne fait pas face à un déficit de diagnostic, mais à un impératif de mise en cohérence. Dans un environnement international marqué par la montée des dépendances technologiques et la centralité des données, la capacité à organiser ces dernières comme une architecture fédéréeinteropérable devient un déterminant stratégique de souveraineté, de résilience et de prospérité. |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2026pr-06 |
| By: | Uma De Balanzo; Nuria Rodriguez-Planas; Jennifer Roff; Núria Rodríguez-Planas |
| Abstract: | We exploit the sharp escalation in community-based ICE enforcement following the January 2025 inauguration to estimate the causal effect of immigration enforcement on consumer spending. Using Synthetic Difference-in-Differences with cross-state variation in surge intensity as the identifying variation, we find that states experiencing the largest enforcement surges saw aggregate card spending decline by 1.7 percentage points relative to their SDiD counterfactual, an effect robust to covariate adjustment, alternative shock windows, and pre-tariff truncation. Null estimates for non-in-person spending rule out a broad regional demand shock, while null estimates for jail-based arrests (enforcement invisible to surrounding communities) isolate enforcement visibility as the operative mechanism. Sector-level estimates reveal two empirically distinct channels: in states with Democratic governors, aggregate spending fell by −4.1 pp (p |
| Keywords: | immigration enforcement, consumer spending, synthetic difference-in-differences, ICE arrests, local labor markets |
| JEL: | J15 R11 E21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12662 |
| By: | Montano, Aldana Rocío |
| Abstract: | La actividad pesquera en Argentina está caracterizada por la alternancia entre ciclos prósperos y períodos de declives. Por motivos biológicos, económicos, sociales o políticos el sector pesquero ha atravesado numerosos altibajos a lo largo de su historia. En las últimas dos décadas, tanto la crisis de la merluza hubbsi como el boom del langostino generaron un impacto en la industria pesquera que reconfiguró la actividad. El objetivo de este trabajo de investigación es estudiar los elementos que influyeron en la migración de las flotas pesqueras, desde el puerto de Mar del Plata hacia los principales puertos del sur del país, a raíz del álgido crecimiento de la pesquería del langostino (Pleoticus muelleri) . Esta especie, experimentó un importante desarrollo desde 2006, llegando a superar en exportaciones al calamar y a la merluza. En el año 2018 alcanzó el récord de 1.300 millones de dólares en exportaciones, posicionándose como el producto estrella de la pesca argentina. La metodología de investigación responde a un enfoque mixto que se nutre de un análisis cuantitativo y de un análisis cualitativo. El primero de ellos, se elaboró en base a los datos provenientes de partes de pesca seleccionados para el período bajo estudio. El segundo análisis se llevó a cabo mediante la realización de entrevistas semiestructuradas a agentes clave del sector. Los resultados exponen que la rentabilidad extraordinaria que generó la explotación del langostino, la factibilidad logística de operar desde el sur, las diferencias de infraestructura entre ambos puertos y el hecho de explotar una pesquería no cuotificada; son los elementos que se identificaron como claves para que tenga lugar ese proceso de migración de flota desde Mar del Plata hacia la Patagonia. |
| Keywords: | Flota Pesquera; Langostino; Merluza; Rentabilidad; Argentina; 2000-2023; |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4498 |
| By: | Honorati, Maddalena; Carraro, Ludovico; Sormani, Roberto Claudio |
| Abstract: | Effectively identifying the poor is critical to the success of many social assistance programs, particularly where public resources are scarce. Proxy means testing (PMT) is a popular method for “targeting” social assistance and has been implemented in a wide variety of countries. This paper responds to Georgia’s request to improve poverty-targeted social assistance (TSA) eligibility and implementation. We re-estimated the PMT model and household needs index using recent HIES data, supported the design and implementation of its pilot and quantitatively evaluated pilot results based on government administrative data. Drawing on pilot evidence, the paper proposes final refinements of the TSA targeting formula and discusses recommendations to effectively implement the revised targeting formula as well as considerations to move towards a means test approach. |
| Date: | 2026–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:208678 |
| By: | Ephraïm Bouriahi (IAE Paris-Est - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Paris-Est - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel); Philippe Lépinard (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Dans le cadre du programme de recherche en ludopédagogie EdUTeam, mené à l'IAE Paris-Est et à l'Institut de Recherche en Gestion (IRG, EA 2354), nous travaillons depuis 18 mois sur la conception d'une plateforme technique ludopédagogique couplant le jeu vidéo multijoueur Luanti et le système d'information géographique (SIG) QGIS afin de répondre à la problématique suivante : quel dispositif ludopédagogique mettre en œuvre pour intégrer la dimension géographique dans des enseignements de management ? La plateforme a actuellement atteint un TRL/SRL de 7 et pourra être expérimentée à la fin 2026 dans son contexte visé, l'enseignement supérieur, pour des cours nécessitant de l'information géographique. |
| Keywords: | Système d'information géographique, QGIS, Luanti, Information géographique, Ludopédagogie, Eduteam |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05609756 |
| By: | Sabrine Emran |
| Abstract: | The call for private finance mobilization received an answer in 2024, with private capital accounting for 66% of total flows in climate finance, while still reaching a record level. This flow of private finance represents a structural shift that can both be considered as a significant achievement and an underexamined governance risk. This paper argues that the growth of private climate finance, while real and consequential, does not always directly serve climate objectives. Private capital is fundamentally risk-averse, return-driven, and structurally indifferent to the adaptation needs, geographic equity, and democratic accountability that a credible climate transition requires. As public governance architecture contracts, most sharply following the United States' 2025 withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, private actors have assumed increasing authority over four core governance functions: allocating capital, pricing risk, setting standards, and shaping narratives. That authority is exercised without democratic mandate, transparent methodology, or enforceable accountability. The paper evaluates the three dominant mechanisms through which private climate governance currently operates: voluntary frameworks such as ICMA's Green Bond Principles, TCFD, and SBTi; regulatory extraterritoriality through instruments such as the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and California's SB-219; and MDB-intermediated blended finance. Each model addresses a real need for governance. None is sufficient. Taken together, they leave three critical gaps unaddressed: no reliable mechanism to direct capital toward adaptation and the most vulnerable geographies; no democratic accountability to the communities most affected by transition decisions; and no coordinating architecture to make the three models coherent and mutually reinforcing. The paper concludes that closing these gaps requires treating climate governance not as a technical question of instrument design, but as a political question of who holds authority over where capital flows and on whose terms. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb23_26 |
| By: | Holbein, John B.; Crabtree, Charles (Dartmouth College) |
| Abstract: | Are peaceful social movements really more effective than violent ones? Chenoweth and Stephan's Why Civil Resistance Works argues that nonviolent resistance consistently outperforms violent resistance in achieving democratic outcomes. This conclusion has had enormous influence among academics, political actors, the media, and on-the-ground activists. We find that some results were misreported in ways that make the data appear to support civil resistance when they do not. Moreover, we find that the results are not robust to modest and reasonable changes in model specification, that they are sensitive to omitted variable bias, and that they rely on instrumental variable models with implausible assumptions that yield unstable estimates. Taken together, our replication and extension suggest that the available cross-national evidence provides no clear basis for the claim that nonviolent campaigns are substantially more effective than violent ones. This is not evidence that nonviolence fails; it is evidence that the strong, unconditional advantage reported in Why Civil Resistance Works is not supported by the data. Our findings underscore the need for methodological re-examinations of foundational works. |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pbrej_v1 |
| By: | Anna Tranfaglia; Erin Troland |
| Abstract: | Historic swings in rents during the pandemic have driven increased interest in research on the financial impacts of rising rents on households. However, compared to homeowners with a mortgage, data on renters are scarce, limiting researchers' ability to analyze the 28 percent of adults who rent their home. |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103239 |
| By: | Andrea Salustri (DSGE, Sapienza Università di Roma - Istituto di Economia e Finanza); Eugenio Montefusco (Department of Mathematics Guido Castelnuovo, Sapienza University of Rome); Silvia Sacchetti (Dipartimento di Sociologia e Ricerca Sociale Università di Trento) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel analytical framework to interpret the global polycrisis using the lenses of multidimensional inequalities and epistemic injustices. Moving beyond fragmented literature, we formalize an epistemological space by evolving from Hotelling’s linear and Salop’s circular models toward a spheroidal and volumetric representation. In this setting, the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) act as exchange platforms tangent to the sphere, organized within a geodesic grid of meridians and parallels that define an epistemological North, Centre, and South. A key original contribution is the conceptualization of the commons as the sphere’s internal diameter, introducing epistemic depth as a systemic foundation to counter processes of predatory inclusion. By applying polar coordinates (θ, ϕ), the study tracks the historical evolution of crisis epicentres from the Dot-com bubble to the Covid-19 pandemic, demonstrating how uncoordinated interventions generate structural fractures and epistemic voids. We argue that social welfare is maximized through the directional diversity provided by Social and Solidarity Economy Organizations (SSEEOs), which operate within the system’s internal volume to bridge visible exchange platforms with the generative depth of the commons. This framework enhances long-term thinking by providing a precise tool for navigating the interconnected failures of modern global systems. |
| Keywords: | global polycrisis, multidimensional inequality, epistemic injustice, epistemological space, Social and Solidarity Economy Enterprises and Organizations (SSEEOs), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). |
| JEL: | D63 L31 O19 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00082 |