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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Albonico, Alice; Ascari, Guido; Gobbi, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | We consider a medium-scale macroeconomic model where the zero lower bound on interest rates remains binding permanently. We estimate the model for the Japanese economy, encompassing both active and passive fiscal policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a predominantly passive fiscal policy stance during the period spanning from 1995 to 2023. We compute fiscal multipliers for various policy instruments, showing that under the backdrop of passive fiscal policy: i) multipliers are lower than in an active fiscal policy regime; ii) government spending multipliers remain below one; iii) tax reductions can be associated with a decrease in output and inflation. A counterfactual analysis suggests that a more active fiscal policy would have resulted in a higher price level without increasing output volatility. |
| Keywords: | permanent liquidity trap; Indeterminacy; Fiscal policy; Fiscal multipliers; Japan |
| JEL: | E52 E62 H63 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21014 |
| By: | Asger Lau Andersen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Niels Johannesen (Oxford University); Jens Broendum Petersen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Sonja Settele (University of Cologne, ECONtribute); Johannes Wohlfart (University of Cologne, ECONtribute) |
| Abstract: | How do households respond when deposit rates drop below zero? Using administrative micro data and exploiting cross-bank variation in interest rate policies, we study a major episode of negative deposit rates in Denmark affecting two thirds of household deposits. We find that households strongly reduced deposit balances when exposed to negative deposit rates, allocating funds to stock portfolios and consumption. In a large-scale survey, we document important roles for loss aversion, perceived unfairness, intertemporal substitution and return considerations in driving these responses. Our findings suggest that monetary policy can have strong consumption effects in negative territory. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, insurance, selection |
| JEL: | D14 D83 D84 D91 E21 E43 E52 E71 |
| Date: | 2026–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2614 |
| By: | Yuan Christopher Qiang; Fabio Sigrist |
| Abstract: | We introduce the zero-one censored transformed normal (ZOC-TN) model for proportional responses with potential probability mass at the boundaries 0 and 1. The model combines a censored Gaussian variable with a two-parameter affine-logit transformation on the interior (0, 1). We characterize the transformation parameters, establish large-sample properties, and relate the affine-logit specification to broader classes of interior distributions. Theoretical and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model can capture a wider range of qualitative density shapes than several benchmark models while remaining parsimonious, computationally efficient, and numerically stable. Furthermore, the ZOC-TN model can be extended (i) to account for nonlinearities and interactions in a tree-boosting machine learning framework and (ii) to explicitly model residual spatio-temporal variability. We apply the ZOC-TN model to loss given default (LGD) modeling for a large dataset of U.S. residential mortgages and compare it to multiple benchmark models. We find that a tree-boosted ZOC-TN model with a spatio-temporal frailty Gaussian process delivers the strongest out-of-sample performance, indicating that mortgage losses are shaped by nonlinear covariate effects and by unaccounted-for space-time variation. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.21515 |
| By: | Shujie Li (Paderborn University); Yuanhua Feng (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | Many economic and financial series exhibit non-stationarity as well as long-memory behavior in both the first and second moments. To capture both non-stationarity and long-memory characteristics simultaneously, a general dual-trend and dual longmemory framework is proposed. In this framework, the error term of the semiparametric FARIMA model is assumed to exhibit a slowly changing scale and longmemory heteroskedasticity. A four-step estimation procedure is proposed, including a trend and a FARIMA model estimation for the first moment, followed by a scaling function and a long-memory volatility model estimation for the second moment. Three long-memory EGARCH-type models and the FIGARCH model are employed in the final stage. Our results indicate that the proposed approach can effectively model the selected economic series exhibiting dual-trend and dual long-memory features. |
| Keywords: | dual-trend, dual long-memory, semi-strong FARIMA, modulus FILog- GARCH, modified FIEGARCH, FIEGARCH and FIGARCH |
| JEL: | C22 C14 C58 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:ciepap:174 |
| By: | Wendel, Flora; Walbaum, Magdalena; Finger, Celina; Brettschneider, Christian; Jung-Sievers, Caroline; Knapp, Martin; Rehfuess, Eva A; Asaria, Miqdad |
| Abstract: | Objective To assess the economic evidence on school-based prevention and mental health promotion interventions, focusing on costs and outcomes across key societal sectors, including healthcare, education, social care, criminal justice, as well as in productivity and individual expenses. Design A systematic review with narrative synthesis was conducted following the Synthesis Without Meta-analysis approach, including an assessment of monetised outcomes across all sectors and an additional analysis of non-monetised outcomes in the education sector. Study quality was appraised using Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) and Consensus Health Economic Criteria (CHEC). Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Econlit, ERIC and Scopus. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Economic evaluations of school-based prevention or mental health promotion interventions for children or adolescents in Europe that report outcomes across healthcare and other societal sectors. Results 20 studies were included, comprising different types of economic evaluations as well as trial-based and model-based evaluations. Based on the primary analyses reported in the studies, which consider costs and benefits across multiple societal sectors, most evaluations suggested favourable economic outcomes. Benefits exceeded costs in four out of five (80%) cost–benefit analyses (average cost–benefit ratio of 5.14). Half of the cost-effectiveness analyses found that interventions were more effective but also more costly than the comparator while two interventions were both more effective and less costly. In cost–utility analyses, 9 out of 10 (90%) fell below commonly used thresholds for good value for money. Reported outcomes covered healthcare, education, social care, criminal justice sectors, as well as productivity and individual expenses. Pronounced cost savings from included interventions were observed in productivity and healthcare, with improvements also observed in non-monetised education outcomes. Study quality was mixed. Conclusions School-based mental health interventions yield cross-sectoral economic benefits and, in many cases, societal returns on investment, in both the short and longer term, by influencing key determinants of health and well-being across multiple sectors. |
| JEL: | I18 I12 H51 |
| Date: | 2026–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138989 |
| By: | Matthieu Bunel; Elisabeth Tovar; Marie-Noëlle Lefebvre |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how large language models (LLMs) trade off moral norms against economic incentives in discriminatory hiring decisions. Bridging discrimination economics and the literature on the moral alignment in computer science, we submit 18 frontier and local LLMs to the factorial vignette experiment of a published human survey that manipulates the motive of discrimination (customer taste-based versus statistical), the cost of non-discrimination, and explicit moral injunctions. We extend this design with LLM-relevant factors: model and user personas, reasoning instructions, scenario realism, and conversational memory. In line with the literature, we find that LLMs align with humans in the direction of the effects manipulated in the survey; we also find important inter-model heterogeneity. Beyond, we contribute to the literature with, to the best of our knowledge, five novel results: 1) the market-oriented motive (customer-taste) overwhelmingly sways models in favour of discrimination, much more than what happens for human respondents; 2) models are more polarised than humans in response to moral injunctions; 3) classic prompt engineering interventions (user stated motives and model personas) have a weak impact on the models’ “moral compass”; 4) post-training alignement, not scale, shape inter-model heterogeneity, which means that de-biasing is possible but must be explicitly implemented by model providers and 5) memory effects suggest that moral permissivity in the models can be induced by conversational contextual effects. |
| Keywords: | Moral judgment on discrimination ; Artificial intelligence ; LLM audit |
| JEL: | D63 D91 C90 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-16 |
| By: | Mingyang Liu; Gabriele Farina; Asuman Ozdaglar |
| Abstract: | Nash equilibrium (NE) arises from selfish utility maximization, yet its social welfare can be arbitrarily far from optimal. Moreover, computing an NE is intractable in general. We study augmented game models in which players use budget-balanced internal transfers to improve incentives before play. We first introduce \emph{Self-Enforcing Transfer Equilibrium} (SETE), where players commit to nonnegative peer-to-peer transfers that are paid only if the recipient does not deviate from a prescribed strategy. For polymatrix games, we show that every stationary point of the social welfare function, in particular any socially optimal strategy profile, can be sustained as a SETE. This induces a Nash equilibrium in the agent normal form of the corresponding augmented game. We further propose a polynomial-time algorithm and a decentralized learning dynamic to compute such product-form equilibria. We then introduce \emph{Mediated Self-Enforcing Transfer Equilibrium} (M-SETE), where a mediator makes both the payment schedule and the prescribed strategies binding offers. This additional enforcement resolves the agent-normal-form limitation: an M-SETE is a Nash equilibrium of the augmented game itself, not merely of its agent normal form, and any socially optimal strategy profile can be supported as an M-SETE in any finite game while preserving budget balance. Thus, internal transfers improve welfare and computation while preserving independent play on the equilibrium path. When full sequential-game stability is required, binding mediation provides the corresponding implementation. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.20960 |
| By: | Sébastien Houde; Wenjun Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between AI adoption and carbon emission intensity. Using micro-level data from Chinese firms, we find that carbon intensity decreases following the adoption of AI. The effect is particularly pronounced among large firms, those headquartered in AI hubs, and those in high-carbon intensity sectors. We investigate several mechanisms and find that AI adoption is also associated with increases in energy management processes, green innovation, inventory efficiency, overall productivity, and the share of specialized labor. We find that AI-induced carbon reductions are subject to a large rebound effect of approximately 70%. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, carbon emissions, energy intensity, green innovation |
| JEL: | D22 L11 O33 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12803 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Recruitment difficulties, changing career patterns and growing classroom diversity have prompted many OECD education systems to look beyond traditional initial teacher education to recruit experienced professionals from other fields. This working paper synthesises what is known about these second-career teachers (SCTs). It is structured around six questions: who they are, where they work, how they are prepared and supported, how they integrate into schools, what they contribute, and how they can be retained. Drawing on the international research literature, recent OECD data – including original analysis using a broader definition of SCT than the published TALIS measure – and policy examples from OECD systems, the paper identifies key aspects to support effective preparation, sets out the conditions that shape SCTs' integration and retention, and considers what governments, schools and researchers might do to support this growing share of the teacher workforce. |
| Keywords: | alternative pathways, education, higher education, second career, TALIS, teacher, teacher attrition, teacher shortages |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:347-en |
| By: | Anna Adamecz (UCL Social Research Institute; HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; IZA); Anna Lovász (University of Washington Tacoma); Sunčica Vujić (University of Antwerp; University of Bath; VU Amsterdam; IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the link between higher education and fertility, with particular attention to the role of intergenerational educational mobility in shaping this relationship. Drawing on data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate differences in completed fertility across three groups: first-in-family university graduates (FiF), graduates with at least one university-educated parent (non-FiF graduates), and individuals who did not attend university (non-graduates). Our findings show that although graduate women generally have fewer children than non-graduates, this gap is primarily driven by FiF graduates. FiF women have lower fertility than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates, who exhibit similar fertility patterns. The fertility gap between FiF and non-FiF graduates emerges after age 35, mainly on the extensive margin: FiF women are more likely to remain childless, but those who become mothers have an average number of children similar to non-FiF graduates. Similar patterns are observed for men, however, the gaps are smaller and not statistically significant. We identify child-related preferences, self-esteem, and exposure to maternal employment during childhood as potential drivers of the relationship between FiF status and fertility. In contrast, labour market outcomes, financial constraints, partnership status, and health outcomes do not appear to contribute to the FiF fertility gap. These findings highlight key considerations for policies aimed at supporting both intergenerational mobility and fertility. |
| Keywords: | First in family (FiF) graduates, fertility, childlessness, intergenerational educational mobility, gender economics |
| JEL: | I26 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2506 |
| By: | Bautista, Xavier Martin; Craig, Steven; Hsu, Annie Yuhsin; Sørensen, Bent E; Tanwar, Vasundhara; Verma, Priyam |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of countries use balanced budget rules (BBRs) to control government debt, with the potential cost that BBRs constrain the governments' ability to smooth public expenditures. We find that U.S. state governments, despite having BBRs, smooth expenditures using savings. This is accomplished via substantial cash balances held by agencies outside of the General Fund with only a minor contribution from dedicated “rainy day†funds. We estimate a state government discount rate using a buffer stock model, fitted to fiscal data consolidated over all agencies, and find that expenditures are smoothed as if guided by a planner with a discount rate similar to that typically found for consumers. |
| JEL: | H72 H74 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21108 |
| By: | Bryan, Gharad; Franklin, Simon; Getahun, Tigabu; Winton, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Do central slums provide essential economic and social benefits to the poor? We collected bespoke data for 5, 000 households to study mass forced clearances in Addis Ababa. Evictees were offered alternative subsidized housing further from the center. Exploiting sharp clearance zone boundaries, regression-discontinuity estimates show negative impacts on social networks, but positive impacts on work, earnings, housing quality and environmental amenity. Relocating households close to their ex-ante neighbors eliminates social costs. Slums are not essential: relocation policies can be designed to fully compensate residents, and the sale value of cleared land more than covers the cost. |
| Keywords: | Urban; Social Networks; Employment |
| JEL: | O18 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20809 |
| By: | Batyra, Ewa; Wilson, Ben |
| Abstract: | Demographers have a rich understanding of the fertility transitions that have been observed in many contexts. Yet, we lack evidence to explain whether long-run declines in fertility levels are accompanied by simultaneous changes in reproductive variability. This is important because reproductive variability—the concentration and dispersion of childbearing—may help to better explain fertility trends and predict population change. We address this gap with a case study of Brazil, which is a well-known example of fertility transition, using microdata on fertility by education for cohorts born 1910–1970. We contribute by using multiple measures of variability in completed fertility, studying how these measures change during an entire transition, how they relate to cohort fertility rates, and how this evidence varies by education. Reproductive variability declines across the Brazilian fertility transition—for measures of concentration and dispersion—although this is less evident for dispersion measures that adjust for levels of children ever born. We also find considerable differences by education and evidence that several measures of variability are predictive of fertility decline, highlighting a promising avenue for future research. Moreover, our findings suggest that conclusions based on one measure of variability may only provide a partial understanding of population dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Brazil;concentration;dispersion;education;fertility;variability |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140242 |
| By: | Bart Cockx; Johan Egebark; Greet Van Hoye; Emilie Videnord; Johan Vikström (-) |
| Abstract: | Reduced motivation over the unemployment spell may contribute to declining job-finding rates. We report findings from a low-cost digital intervention that uses motivational emails to enhance job seekers' search effort. Using a randomized controlled trial that included 200, 720 newly unemployed job seekers in Sweden, we evaluate both supportive messages aimed at encouraging inner motivation, and controlling messages focused on internal and external pressure. The messages increased compliance with mandatory activity reporting, indicating a clear first-stage behavioral response. However, this behavioral change did not translate in more effective job search as both types of emails caused a moderate but significant reduction in search effort and job finding. The supportive messages reduced the number of job applications and showed weakly negative job-finding effects, particularly among men. The controlling messages slightly backfired for job seekers who report strong autonomous motivation at the onset of unemployment. These findings underscore the challenges of motivating job seekers to actively search for jobs and suggest that low-cost digital interventions, in isolation, are inadequate and may even be counterproductive. |
| JEL: | A12 D01 D91 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1148 |
| By: | Belot, Michèle; Liu, Xiaoying; Triantafyllou, Vaios |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on the key drivers of job satisfaction. We ask individuals to describe, in their own words, what they like and dislike about their jobs. These open-ended questions allow us to capture what comes to mind most naturally. We analyze the resulting free-text responses using GPT-4 to identify and classify categories of job amenities. Our main study draws on a sample of 500 full-time U.S.-based employees aged 30 to 55. We find that flexible work arrangements, workplace relationships, and autonomy consistently rank among the most valued aspects of work, while poor workplace relationships, long work hours, and heavy workloads dominate the list of dislikes and rank above factors such as pay. Our approach offers a fresh lens on what job amenities workers are most satisfied and dissatisfied with. |
| Keywords: | Large Language Models; Job satisfaction |
| JEL: | J28 J33 C88 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21044 |
| By: | Gondauri, Davit |
| Abstract: | This study develops a finite-network gauge-econometric framework for measuring systemic shock thresholds in global and corridor flow networks. The central problem addressed is that conventional macroeconomic indicators describe output, growth, income depth, inflation, or trade exposure, but do not by themselves identify how systemic stress circulates through corridor-sensitive network structures or when a local disturbance becomes systemically transmissible. To address this gap, the study constructs a two-layer empirical architecture. Layer A is a completed ten-node benchmark of global and corridor-sensitive regional nodes connected by twenty-seven weighted undirected edges. Public macroeconomic anchors are transformed into a normalized systemic-stress field and then into a corridor-weighted graph, a stress-weighted adjacency matrix, an anti-symmetric economic gauge potential, triangular curvature, Yang-Mills economic action, a stress Laplacian, an Economic Mass Gap Index, fragility, BridgeStress, resilience, and scenario-based shock diagnostics. Layer B specifies a 100-country by 15-year validation architecture, producing a planned N = 1, 500 country-year panel for fixed-effects, two-way fixed-effects, Driscoll-Kraay, clustered, dynamic-panel, panel-IV, factor, and external-validation models once the country-year variables are populated and estimated. The corrected benchmark yields a positive finite-network economic mass gap of lambda_1 = 0.3850, with spectral radius 3.5023 and normalized transition threshold 0.1099. Positive spectral separation is retained under high-weight, medium-filtered, and sparse-filtered graph specifications, while Monte Carlo perturbations keep the mass gap positive across the reported uncertainty interval. The curvature-action layer reports total Yang-Mills economic action of 2, 514.0 and a top-five action concentration of 78.329%, indicating that systemic stress-energy is concentrated in a limited set of network cycles. Scenario simulations show that inflation, financial-spread, trade/logistics, and energy/geopolitical corridor shocks weaken spectral protection, compress the local-to-systemic threshold, and increase curvature/action concentration. EMGI, fragility, and BridgeStress further distinguish large output-mass nodes from strategically exposed corridor nodes such as the Caucasus and Central Asia. The finite-network dataset and replication package are archived on Zenodo as Version v1, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20786199 (Gondauri, 2026). The study contributes a reproducible macro-corridor measurement pipeline that integrates systemic-risk theory, network topology, spectral graph diagnostics, gauge-theoretic analogy, and econometric claim discipline. The term mass gap is used strictly in the finite weighted-graph sense and does not claim a solution to the mathematical Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem. Stronger causal and country-level econometric claims are reserved for the populated and estimated N = 1, 500 panel. |
| Keywords: | economic Yang-Mills mass gap, gauge econometrics, systemic shock thresholds, finite weighted graphs, stress-weighted Laplacian, spectral graph diagnostics, corridor flow networks, triangular curvature, Yang-Mills economic action, Economic Mass Gap Index, BridgeStress, macroeconomic resilience, panel validation architecture |
| JEL: | C02 C18 C23 C38 C45 C51 C52 F14 F15 F47 G01 L91 O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341544 |
| By: | Jamilov, Rustam; Kohlhas, Alexandre; Talavera, Oleksandr; Zhang, Mao |
| Abstract: | We propose an empirically consistent theory of business cycles driven by fluctuations in the sentiment of a small number of firms. Using computational linguistics and analyst forecasts, we find that around 50 firms can account for over 60% of the variation in U.S. sentiment and macroeconomic outcomes. Our †Granular Sentiment Index†, which measures the sentiment of these firms, is dominated by downstream firms that are close to the final consumer. Incorporating endogenous attention choice into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, we show that this heterogeneity arises because downstream firms act as natural “information agglomerators†. A calibrated version of the model shows that sentiment shocks to the 20% most downstream firms explain 70% of sentiment-driven (and 20% of aggregate) fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | beliefs; Business cycles; Incomplete information; Granularity |
| JEL: | E32 D22 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21238 |
| By: | Wu, Jie; Canales, J. Ignacio; Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK); Yan, Haifeng |
| Abstract: | This study examines how soft skills education performatively shapes business realities across cultural boundaries. While prior research has treated soft skills as static capabilities, we demonstrate their role as performative forces actively reshaping organizational practices. Through in-depth interviews with Chinese graduates of UK universities working in China, our findings reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between structural performativity and organizational transformation, moderated by collective orientation (weakening effect) and absorptive capacity (strengthening effect) and pinpoint six key domains through which soft skills education acts as a performative mechanism. Our findings suggest that successful organizational transformation through soft skills education requires balancing international connections, cultural values, and knowledge integration capabilities. The study advances performativity theory in management education by demonstrating how educational practices actively construct organizational realities rather than merely describing them and provides insights for business schools on effectively harnessing performativity to create desirable organizational outcomes in cross-cultural contexts. |
| Keywords: | Performativity; Management Education; Soft Skills; Cross-Cultural Learning; Chinese Business; Business Schools |
| JEL: | A2 I2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/1 |
| By: | Bähr, Cornelius |
| Abstract: | In Folge des Angriffs der USA und Israels auf den Iran blockierte zunächst der Iran die Straße von Hormus. Die Blockade wurde durch Gegenmaßnahmen der USA verschärft. Auch im Falle einer baldigen Öffnung des Seeweges werden die Auswirkungen der Blockade noch länger spürbar bleiben. Dabei sind nicht nur Transporte von Öl- und Gasprodukten betroffen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:341665 |
| By: | Ghomi, Morteza; Pappa, Evi |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic effects of persistent public investment shocks using a local-projection instrumental-variables framework and European data. For identification we exploit European Investment Bank loans for public infrastructure projects and address potential endogeneity in loan approval with an inverse-probability-weighted regression-adjustment estimator. Public investment shocks raise employment and output in the medium term, without crowding out private investment and consumption, or generating inflation and additional debt burden. The cumulative output multiplier reaches 3.38 after five years and is significant and larger when credit conditions are favorable. We report significant positive spillover effects from spending in public infrastructure in both output and employment. |
| JEL: | E62 H41 H54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21157 |
| By: | Eren, Ozkan; Hjalmarsson, Randi; Ozturk, Orgul |
| Abstract: | We exploit conditionally random assignment of case files to judges in a Southern U.S. state to study the effects of same-gender judge assignment on juvenile justice decisions and long-run socioeconomic outcomes. Using a generalized differences-in-differences design, we find evidence of same-gender gaps in sentencing decisions: relative to males, female judges are 18% less likely to incarcerate female than male defendants. A novel rank-order test confirms these findings and indicates that the results are not driven by a small subset of judges. Own-gender judicial assignment, especially for Black children, has lasting effects on socioeconomic outcomes beyond the courtroom: educational attainment increases while adult criminal involvement and welfare use decrease. Further analyses suggest that these long-run improvements are not just driven by differential incarceration decisions. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination; Incarceration; Education |
| JEL: | K40 J16 I20 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21104 |
| By: | Hvide, Hans K.; Meling, Tom G. |
| Abstract: | We study how entrepreneurs respond to investment opportunities created by new technologies. Using the staggered rollout of broadband internet in Norway as a natural experiment, we find that access to the new technology increases startup rates by about 25% without reducing their quality. The effects are strongest in ICT-intensive industries, and treated entrepreneurs are more likely to invest in complementary assets such as computers. Consistent with existing literature, established firms show a more muted response to the new technology. Our findings suggest that entrepreneurs play a key role in adapting the economy to technological change. |
| Keywords: | Broadband; entrepreneurship; Technology adoption; Technology diffusion |
| JEL: | D21 D24 J23 L11 L25 G39 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21200 |
| By: | Quanyan Zhu |
| Abstract: | Agentic AI systems are increasingly being deployed as productive resources in organizational workflows, yet existing evaluation methods primarily measure isolated technical performance rather than economic contribution. This paper introduces \emph{Agentomics}, a workflow-based framework for valuing, attributing, and pricing human and artificial agents. The framework models a workflow as a configuration of heterogeneous agents whose collective performance determines gross value, deployment cost, reliability, and expected failure loss. Workflow value is treated as a team-level quantity that may include complementarities, substitution effects, bottlenecks, and nonlinear production; additive stage-level value is only a special case. Building on this workflow model, the paper formulates AI deployment as a coalition-formation problem and defines coalition value as the incremental net surplus generated relative to a benchmark human workflow. The Shapley value is then used to attribute economic surplus among participating AI agents, yielding a principled connection among valuation, accountability, and market pricing. The resulting Shapley pricing equilibrium provides a normative benchmark for assessing whether agent prices reflect expected marginal contribution. A security-operations case study illustrates how the framework accounts for productivity gains, deployment costs, reliability losses, and coalition-level complementarities in hybrid human--AI workflows. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.14769 |
| By: | Jansen, Kristy; Klingler, Sven; Ranaldo, Angelo; Duijm, Patty |
| Abstract: | Pension funds use interest rate swaps to hedge the interest rate risk arising from their liabilities. Analyzing regulatory data on Dutch pension funds, we show that pension funds with worse funding ratios, indicating greater fragility, use swaps more aggressively. These swap positions expose pension funds to the risk of margin calls, which can exceed 6% of their total assets, when interest rates rise. Pension funds respond to realized margin calls by selling safe government bonds with medium-term maturities. This procyclical selling behavior adversely affects the prices of the sold bonds and thereby exposes pension funds to market liquidity risk. |
| Keywords: | Pension funds; Fixed income; interest rate swaps; Liability Hedging; Liquidity risk; Price impact |
| JEL: | E43 G12 G18 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21095 |
| By: | Erten, Bilge; Stiglitz, Joseph; Verhoogen, Eric |
| Abstract: | The CHIPS and Science Act, enacted in August 2022, is a key element of the revival of U.S. industrial policy. We examine the short-term employment effects of the act. Drawing on quarterly industry-by-county data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), we implement two county-level difference-in-difference designs, the first comparing counties with pre-existing semiconductor facilities to other counties with high-tech industries and the second comparing counties with semiconductor fabrication facilities (which were targeted for the bulk of the CHIPS funding) to counties with non-fabrication semiconductor facilities. Using both approaches, we find robust, positive employment impacts in affected counties. The effects began at the time of the passage in the Senate of a precursor bill, in anticipation of the signing of the CHIPS Act. Our preferred estimates suggest an increase of 110 jobs per affected county in the first design and 180 jobs per affected county in the second design. We also find robust positive impacts on local construction employment. Evidence on total employment and GDP at the county level, as well as on employment in upstream input sectors, is mixed. Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations (which come with caveats) suggest national direct employment effects of approximately 15, 000-16, 000 jobs in the core semiconductor sector and indirect effects of 28, 000-35, 000 jobs in related sectors. |
| JEL: | L52 L63 J2 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20982 |
| By: | Seth Ampomah Duodu (International University of Japan); Norio Usui (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | With soaring domestic demand, Ghana has become highly dependent on imported rice, thereby tying domestic rice prices more closely to international prices. This study aims to analyze how international and domestic rice prices interact, as well as how imported prices affect domestic prices across regions. This study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the long-run relationships and short-run dynamics of imported prices, domestic prices, world prices, and overall inflation. The data used are monthly data from ten major rice markets in Ghana for the period 2012 to 2024. The results indicate a long-run relationship between imported and domestic rice prices, and some degree of integration with the global market. Price transmission is faster in coastal markets but slower in the north, where shocks can take more than a year to be reflected in local prices. Ineffective policies, poor infrastructure, and macroeconomic instability explain why Ghana is largely a price taker. This study clarifies region-specific cross-market price transmission, identifying a clear south-north transmission gradient and slower adjustment speeds compared to those found in previous studies. |
| Keywords: | Price transmission, Imported rice, Local rice, ARDL model |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_13 |
| By: | Cutuli, Romina; Pellegrini, Mariana; Savino, Julia Victoria |
| Abstract: | Los objetivos del trabajo son reconstruir los discursos sociales sobre los riesgos del trabajo de reparto mediado por plataformas a partir de la prensa digital escrita; y recuperar las preocupaciones y experiencias en relación con los riesgos del trabajo de reparto mediado por plataformas a partir del relato de los trabajadores del sector en el Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires (AMBA). |
| Keywords: | Condiciones de Trabajo; Precarización Laboral; Riesgo; Plataformas Digitales; |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4561 |
| By: | Jia, Ruixue; Strömberg, David |
| Abstract: | Moral regulation is widespread across societies, yet its consequences have seldom been examined empirically. We study the Hays Code (July 1934–1960s), which imposed systematic moral guidelines on American cinema. Using a regression-discontinuity design, with non-U.S. films providing a comparison group, we find that the moral compliance of U.S. films rose sharply after 1935 and remained high for two decades. The Code also reshaped protagonists and political tone: protagonists became less likely to be women or working class, and political tones grew more conservative. Filmmakers adapted both by increasing compliance within genres and by shifting across them: less-compliant Drama declined while more-compliant Western and Action rose. Companies with a larger market size and immigrant film directors exhibited stronger responses. These findings reveal how moral constraint, market, and identity jointly shape cultural production and how well-intentioned moral regulation can produce broad and often unintended spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Moral regulation; Cultural production; Censorship; Market size; Immigrants |
| JEL: | L82 L51 P16 Z11 N72 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20905 |
| By: | Sergio A. Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner |
| Abstract: | Banking crises are commonly associated with bank runs and banking panics, yet our empirical understanding of bank runs is constrained by a lack of bank-level data. In a new paper, we use large language models (LLMs) to extract information on bank runs from millions of digitized historical newspaper pages, creating the most comprehensive database of bank runs in U.S. history. Every bank run episode that we identify is documented on a companion website where users can browse and examine individual episodes, and read the original newspaper articles. In this post, we describe how we built this dataset and discuss what its basic features reveal. |
| Keywords: | bank runs; banking crises; bank failures; deposit insurance; liquidity; solvency; artificial intelligence (AI) |
| JEL: | G01 |
| Date: | 2026–07–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:103501 |
| By: | Cai, Xiaoming (Peking University HSBC Business School); Gautier, Pieter (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Wolthoff, Ronald (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | Digital platforms allocate buyer attention across sellers that differ in quality and breadth of appeal. We study a monopoly platform that sets meeting rates between buyers and two seller types --- niche sellers whose high-quality good is valued by a fraction of buyers and mass-market sellers whose good is valued by all. Sellers compete by posting prices à la Burdett and Judd (1983), so buyer surplus requires competition, while platform revenue requires seller rents. This difference creates a systematic distortion: as search capacity grows, the platform keeps high-quality niche attention just past the point where extra exposure stops creating rents and starts eroding them – its saturation point – and diverts the rest to mass-market sellers. Applying the model to Amazon product search and Google passage-ranking data indicates that, for captive buyers, both platforms operate past the saturation point.. Allowing buyer participation to respond to the platform's recommendation strategy disciplines the platform and shrinks this loss. |
| Keywords: | attention allocation, recommendation systems, search frictions, two-sided markets, enshittification of internet |
| JEL: | D62 D83 L12 L40 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18745 |
| By: | Han, Tianyu; Zhao, Bingyu PhD; Tang, Yili Kelly; Comfort, Louise PhD; Soga, Kenichi PhD |
| Abstract: | Earthquakes pose a persistent and significant threat to the movement of people, goods, and services. While agencies have made progress on emergency response, planning for recovery (how quickly transportation systems can be restored after a major event) remains limited. A key challenge is that earthquake modeling and transportation system modeling have remained largely separate efforts, making it difficult for agencies to anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and coordinate recovery across jurisdictions. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2210z53n |
| By: | Buser, Thomas (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have found that childhood misbehavior, despite predicting worse schooling outcomes, is associated with higher adult earnings. Using a retrospective measure in a representative Dutch survey panel, I document a new dimension of the misbehavior-career link: people who misbehaved as children are overrepresented in leadership positions and among entrepreneurs. Yet the same people are, as adults, more likely to engage in physical aggression and social transgressions. They also have an aversive personality – markedly more disagreeable, dishonest, narcissistic, manipulative, neurotic, unconscientious, and vindictive – and report lower wellbeing. These patterns persist even among those who reach the top, making them potentially toxic as leaders. |
| Keywords: | childhood misbehavior, externalizing behavior, leadership, antisocial behavior, personality, non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | J24 D91 I21 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18744 |
| By: | boughabi, houssam |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a statistical framework for characterizing Pareto-improving resource reallocations through weighted allocation schemes. The objective is not to solve the resulting optimization problem but rather to define the admissible set of weight vectors generating Pareto improvements and to provide a basis for its subsequent statistical characterization. |
| Keywords: | Pareto efficiency; resource reallocation; weighted allocation mechanisms; welfare economics; statistical admissibility |
| JEL: | C02 C18 D60 D61 D63 D71 |
| Date: | 2026–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129510 |
| By: | Andrén, Daniela (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | In 1965, about one thousand children in the third grade of a midsize Swedish town answered a short questionnaire about school, and their parents answered a parallel questionnaire about the same child (a design repeated in grade six and grade nine). This article uses these paired reports to revisit, in a new construct and country, two sensitivities highlighted by Conti and Pudney (2011): that response-scale format and labeling can reshape reported satisfaction distributions, and that response conditions can induce systematic, gender-differentiated departures from classical measurement error. Parents concentrate on the conventional positive category while children spread across the scale; the distributional distance between informants is largest in grade six, where both answered fully labeled five-point scales. An integrative latent model attributes to the child report extreme-category misclassification probabilities of 0.14–0.34 and to the parent report a systematic threshold shift (context/informant perspective) with noise standard deviation close to one (estimates close to the original British ones). The choice of informant changes econometric conclusions: conditional on achievement, cognitive ability is negatively associated with satisfaction only in the child's own reports, and classroom-context coefficients switch between informants. Measured satisfaction is partly an artifact of who is asked and how. |
| Keywords: | survey design; school satisfaction; informant effects; ordinal response; measurement error. |
| JEL: | C25 C81 I21 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–07–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2026_005 |
| By: | Hwang, Roland; Dhole, Anuj; Fulton, Lewis; Murphy, Colin |
| Abstract: | The California medium- and heavy-duty zero emission vehicle (ZEV) market is poised for growth despite challenges to regulatory authority at the federal level. To ensure market momentum, long-term funding certainty is needed for the medium- and heavy-duty ZEV incentive program, called HVIP. In 2024, the CARB board voted to redirect the Clean Fuel Reward (CFR) program from light-duty ZEVs to medium- and heavy-duty zero-emission truck (ZET) incentives. While this provides a foundation for revenue for ZET incentives, ITS-Davis analysis finds that it will likely fall far short of long-term HVIP revenue needs. We estimate the total HVIP funding gap (including both ZETs and ZEBs) after CFR revenues are considered for the 9-year period from 2027-2035 to be between $4.2 billion and $26 billion, with a mid-case scenario funding gap of $8.5 billion. The wide range is due to uncertainties in ZEV market growth rates and CFR revenues. The funding gap necessitates new approaches to address, such as lowering the incentive levels per vehicle, implementing new funding sources, and adopting innovative financing mechanisms. For example, we estimate that reducing the average incentive by 50% starting in 2031 and assessing a $1, 400 registration fee on Class 4-8 diesel trucks starting in 2027 could support the achievement of annul ACT target volumes in the post-2030 timeframe. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt16x180rr |
| By: | Elisa Al\`os; \`Oscar Bur\'es |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present a numerical method for option pricing and the computation of Greeks under stochastic volatility Bachelier-type models, based on elementary linear algebra. The method allows option prices and Greeks to be computed for infinitely many strikes (within a range of convergence) by evaluating only a finite number of expectations, independent of the number of strikes. For the SABR model, we derive an explicit range of convergence. Numerical examples are provided for both the SABR and the rough Bergomi models. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.26024 |
| By: | Leogrande, Angelo; Anobile, Fabio; Costantiello, Alberto; Drago, Carlo; Arnone, Massimo |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the interrelated effects of finance structure, institutional quality, and macro-demographics on CO₂ emissions per capita in OECD countries from 2004 to 2021. Building on the conventional linear and aggregate nature of the finance–environment relationship, this study suggests an improved methodology based on a hybrid framework combining panel estimation, machine learning-based clustering, and nonlinear modeling. The empirical findings support a positive relationship between bank-based intermediation structure, represented by private credit and credit quality, and CO₂ emissions per capita, which could be explained by a scale effect. At the same time, a negative relationship is found between non-performing loans and CO₂ emissions per capita. In addition, a negative relationship is found between the assets of pension funds and mutual funds and CO₂ emissions per capita. This suggests a critical role played by long-horizon investors in offsetting the carbon footprint of economic activity. Government effectiveness is found to have a positive relationship with CO₂ emissions per capita. This could reflect development stage considerations rather than institutional failure. Finally, a weak positive relationship is found between population density and CO₂ emissions per capita. This supports scale efficiencies. The K-means clustering methodology reveals a strong structural heterogeneity in the finance–environment relationship. This supports the view that there are unique structural regimes in which similar CO₂ emissions per capita outcomes are influenced by a variety of interrelated finance structure and institutional quality drivers. In addition, the Random Forest methodology outperforms other machine learning techniques. This suggests a strong nonlinear nature in the finance–environment relationship. Finally, the empirical findings support a relatively stronger emphasis placed on structural finance structure and institutional quality variables rather than short-run macroeconomic variables in explaining variations in CO₂ emissions per capita. |
| Keywords: | Financial structure; CO₂ emissions; Institutional quality; Sustainable finance; Machine learning |
| JEL: | C23 C45 G20 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128168 |