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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Ruopu Hu (Kobe University); Andreas Schabert (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Since U.S. bank capital holdings began rising almost concurrently with the monetary policy change after 2008, we examine the role of capital requirements for monetary policy regimes. While standard models predict that equilibrium determination and responses to aggregate shocks are fundamentally affected at the zero lower bound (ZLB), we show that these effects are absent when bank capital requirements are binding. Estimating a model version with occasionally binding capital requirements, we find that they have been almost permanently binding after 2008. We further show that capital requirements neither restore relevance of money supply nor amplify responses to macroeconomic shocks above the ZLB. |
| Keywords: | Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy, Local Equilibrium Determinacy, Regimeswitching Estimation, Zero Lower Bound |
| JEL: | E52 G28 C11 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:397 |
| By: | Stockhausen, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Der Siebte Armuts- und Reichtumsbericht (7. ARB) ist ein umfangreiches, datenbasiertes Werk, das viele relevante Lebensbereiche abdeckt - von Einkommen und Vermögen über Bildung, Gesundheit und Teilhabe bis hin zu neuen Themen wie Klimawandel und subjektiven Erfahrungen von Armut. Gleichzeitig ist zu kritisieren, dass der Bericht durch seine starke thematische Erweiterung an analytischer Schärfe und Übersichtlichkeit verliert. Ein zentrales, aber zu wenig diskutiertes Problem sind methodische Brüche in wichtigen Datensätzen: Coronabedingte Erhebungsänderungen, die Neugestaltung des Mikrozensus sowie die Integration des EU-SILC ab 2020 in den Mikrozensus erschweren eine verlässliche Trendauswertung in wesentlichen Verteilungskennziffern. Auch im SOEP führte ein Institutswechsel 2021 zu einem Zeitreihenbruch. Dadurch lassen sich Kriseneffekte und die Wirksamkeit politischer Maßnahmen nur eingeschränkt beurteilen. Eine konsequentere Darstellung dieser Einschränkungen im 7. ARB wäre notwendig gewesen. Trotz dieser Probleme zeigen die verfügbaren Daten eine weitgehend stabile Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung in Deutschland. Der Gini-Koeffizient der verfügbaren Haushaltseinkommen liegt seit Jahren nahezu konstant, und auch die Vermögensungleichheit ist - trotz höherem Niveau als bei den Einkommen - leicht rückläufig. Staatliche Umverteilung und automatische Stabilisatoren haben größere Verwerfungen während der Krisen erfolgreich abgefedert. Der Bericht betont zu Recht, dass die Armutsgefährdungsquote ein relatives Maß ist und keine direkte Aussage über materielle Hilfebedürftigkeit trifft. Ursachen steigender Armutsrisiken, wie die starke Zuwanderung von Geflüchteten nach 2015 mit geringen materiellen Ressourcen, stellen keine Gerechtigkeitsdefizite oder ein mangelndes Funktionieren des Sozialstaats dar. Eine sozialversicherungspflichtige Vollzeitbeschäftigung bleibt der zentrale Schutzfaktor vor Einkommensarmut. Ein weiterer kritischer Punkt ist die Diskrepanz zwischen objektiven Daten und subjektiver Wahrnehmung: Viele Bürger überschätzen das Ausmaß sozialer Ungleichheit, was politische Debatten prägt. Diese Wahrnehmungsverzerrungen werden im 7. ARB zwar erwähnt, aber nicht systematisch in die Schlussfolgerungen integriert. Insgesamt ist der 7. ARB als wichtiges Instrument der sozialpolitischen Beobachtung zu würdigen, es ist jedoch eine klarere Kommunikation, eine konsequentere Berücksichtigung methodischer Unsicherheiten sowie eine stärkere Fokussierung auf zentrale Verteilungsindikatoren anzumahnen. Der Bericht sollte Fortschritte und Stabilitäten ebenso hervorheben wie bestehende Herausforderungen, um ein realistisches Bild der sozialen Lage in Deutschland zu vermitteln. |
| Abstract: | The Seventh Report on Poverty and Wealth (7th ARB) is a comprehensive, data-based work covering many relevant areas of life - from income and wealth to education, health and participation, as well as new topics such as climate change and subjective experiences of poverty. At the same time, it must be criticised that the report loses analytical sharpness and clarity due to its strong thematic expansion. A central but insufficiently discussed problem is methodological breaks in important data sets: Corona-related changes in surveys, the redesign of the microcensus and the integration of EU-SILC from 2020 onwards into the microcensus make it difficult to reliably evaluate trends in key distribution indicators. In the SOEP, too, a change of the survey institute in 2021 led to a break in the time series. As a result, the effects of the crisis and the effectiveness of political measures can only be assessed to a limited extent. A more consistent presentation of these limitations in the 7th ARB would have been necessary. Despite these problems, the available data show a largely stable distribution of income and wealth in Germany. The Gini coefficient for disposable household income has remained virtually constant for years, and wealth inequality is also declining slightly, despite being at a higher level than income inequality. Government redistribution and automatic stabilisers have successfully cushioned major disruptions during the crises. The report rightly emphasises that the at-risk-of-poverty rate is a relative measure and does not directly indicate material need. The causes of rising poverty risks, such as the large influx of refugees after 2015 with limited material resources, do not represent deficits in fairness or a failure of the welfare state. Full-time employment subject to social insurance contributions remains the key factor in protecting against poverty, but this is not sufficiently emphasised in the report. Another critical point is the discrepancy between objective data and subjective perception: many citizens overestimate the extent of social inequality, which shapes political debates. These perceptual distortions are mentioned in the 7th ARB, but are not systematically integrated into the conclusions. Overall, the 7th ARB should be recognised as an important instrument for social policy observation, but clearer communication, more consistent consideration of methodological uncertainties and a stronger focus on key indicators of the distribution of income and wealth are called for. The report should highlight progress and stability as well as existing challenges in order to convey a realistic picture of the social situation in Germany. |
| JEL: | D31 I32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:339606 |
| By: | Vitale, Tommaso Prof (Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | In large European metropolitan regions, governance is structurally incomplete and discontinuous: not a pathological exception but a stable condition, as documented comparatively by Le Galès and Vitale (2015). Drawing on research conducted at the Urban School of Sciences Po across seven cities (Naples, Paris, Bologna, Barcelona, Amsterdam, Grenoble, and Milan), with Rome as an analytical case-limit, this article argues that metropolitan governance discontinuity does not authorise cosmetic urban interventions but demands a systemic gaze over the entire metropolitan region. Metropolitan change advances through configurations of four levers: local voluntarism capable of building coalitions, inter-metropolitan learning, supranational incentives, and conflict management through stable arenas, not through global reforms or singular exceptional gestures. Housing decommodification constitutes the most severe test of governing capacity: where structural policies are absent, agglomeration economies produce displacement and reversed redistribution. The cases of Paris, Vienna, and Barcelona demonstrate that an accessible social housing circuit is buildable through ordinary instruments (land governance, short-term rental regulation, non-profit operators, anti-speculative constraints) rather than exceptional announcements. Drawing on Hirschmanian possibilism, the article proposes the notion of extraordinary redistributive mediocrity: the primacy of daily redistributive work (maintenance, effective proximity of services, public space as common service) over the flagship project as a governance simulacrum. In European metropolitan regions marked by institutional fragmentation, mobilising ordinary instruments well and guaranteeing universal rights through incremental processes of redistribution toward the least privileged is not a fallback: it is the most demanding and most equitable form of public action. |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mk3s5_v1 |
| By: | Kammerlander, Lukas; Anstätt, Alena; Schon, Milena; Krieg, Caroline; Schröer, Wolfgang; Walther, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Übergänge in die Arbeitswelt sind komplexer als oft angenommen. Junge Menschen sehen sich Zuschreibungen und Erwartungen gegenüber und vertreten zugleich eigene Ansprüche. Dieser Vielzahl an teils widersprüchlichen Fremd- und Selbstpositionierungen versucht die Studie mit dem Konzept arbeitsweltbezogener Positionierungen theoretisch und empirisch gerecht zu werden. In zehn Gruppendiskussionen zeigen sich erste Ergebnisse: Während die befragten jungen Menschen generationale Zuschreibungen zumeist ablehnen, halten sie an erwerbszentrierten Lebensmodellen fest. Geschlechtliche Rollenteilungen werden jedoch zurückgewiesen. Obwohl Ungerechtigkeitserfahrungen geteilt werden, fehlen kollektive Solidarisierungsformen. Stattdessen dominieren individuelle Bewältigungsstrategien. |
| Keywords: | Transformation, Ausbildung, Solidarisierung, Ungerechtigkeit, Beruf |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:339597 |
| By: | Frangiamore, Francesco; Saadaoui, Jamel |
| Abstract: | Using local projections, this paper documents that neither global geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks nor GPR shocks originating in smaller euro area countries have a significant impact on Euro Area sovereign stress, whereas GPR shocks originating in Germany generate sizable effects, against the backdrop of the recent surge in geopolitical risk following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Sovereign Stress, Local Projections. |
| JEL: | E44 F51 G01 |
| Date: | 2026–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127823 |
| By: | Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University); Bussotti, Carolina (Rome Economics Doctorate); Paradisi, Matteo (EIEF); Wu, Liangjie (EIEF) |
| Abstract: | Brand capital--an intangible asset that differentiates a firm's products--has grown in recent decades, alongside the rise of intangible investment and the decline in the labor share. Trademarks are legal claims on brand capital and are traded across firms, providing a setting to study how reallocating brand capital reshapes firm behavior and aggregate outcomes. Leveraging a novel link of Italian administrative data on trademark ownership, firms' financial statements, and employer–employee records, we exploit firm-to-firm trademark transactions to identify the effects of brand-capital investment. Guided by a model in which firms combine production and expansionary with brand capital, we use an event-study design to estimate firm-level and aggregate effects. Acquiring a trademark increases intangible assets by 19%, sales by 8%, and employment by 6%, while leaving weekly earnings unchanged and reducing the firm-level labor share. Employment gains are concentrated among marketing and sales workers. Trademark transactions reallocate brand capital toward larger firms, raising combined buyer-seller sales. Calibrating the model, we find this reallocation generates a one percentage-point long-run decline in the aggregate labor share. |
| Keywords: | brand capital, trademarks, labor share, labor demand, markups |
| JEL: | L25 O34 E25 J23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18461 |
| By: | Bindseil, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the role of layering in the architecture of money and payment systems and how recent technological innovations affect it. Layering in payments, whereby payment ledgers are hierarchical to each other, and senior ledgers allow for interoperability between junior ledgers, has historically emerged from efficiency, risk management, and governance considerations. The paper develops a framework to classify ledger hierarchies and types of payment ledgers and uses it to assess innovations including central bank digital currencies, instant payment systems, public blockchains, tokenized multi-asset platforms, expanded access of non-bank payment service providers to central bank accounts, and stablecoins. The analysis shows that many innovations do not eliminate layering but instead reorganize it, often preserving the fundamental tiered structure in which central bank money anchors the monetary system. Innovations should normally improve payment efficiency but also introduce new risks and policy challenges that must be addressed, implying the need for regulatory modernization and an evolving role for central banks in shaping payment architectures and safeguarding the singleness of money. |
| Keywords: | Layering of payment systems, Monetary architecture, Central bank money, Stablecoins, Tokenization and payment infrastructures |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:339609 |
| By: | Torun Dewan (Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science); Christopher Kam (Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia); Jaakko Meriläinen (Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics); Janne Tukiainen (Department of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | To what extent did class shape political behavior during early democratization and industrialization, and did class voting reflect economic interests or durable political identities? We use newly collected individual-level panel data from open-ballot elections in the nineteenth-century England—around 130, 000 recorded vote choices linked to voters’ occupations across elections—to provide evidence on the class-basis of voting. Voting was strongly structured by occupation: skilled workers and the petite bourgeoisie disproportionately supported Liberals and their free-trade agenda, while the gentry, farm workers, and unskilled workers leaned Conservative. Exploiting within-voter mobility, we show that these alignments reflected durable political identities rather than contemporaneous economic interests: Although socially mobile voters resemble their destination class in cross-sectional comparisons, within-voter estimates show that individuals did not systematically change their vote choice when their class changed. Class-based political alignments were thus behaviorally durable at the individual level, even though the Industrial Revolution profoundly transformed society. |
| Keywords: | Class-based voting, economic voting, poll books, socialization, social mobility, voting behavior |
| JEL: | D72 N33 N93 P00 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp179 |
| By: | Clara Laborie (Iaelyon - Iaelyon School of Management - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon, MAGELLAN - Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | Depuis la pandémie de la Covid-19, le développement du télétravail est un des principaux défis auquel le management est confronté, tant pour des questions de mise en oeuvre pratique, que sur le volet de la gestion des tâches collectives et individuelles, qui peut s'avérer très chronophage (Laborie, 2023). Dans ce contexte, les managers de proximité se sont révélés être des acteurs centraux de la mise en place, du développement et de la gestion quotidienne du télétravail (Alfehaid et Mohamed, 2019 ; Laborie et al., 2022). Néanmoins, il semble que certains managers se soient consumés et épuisés dans l'investissement auprès de leurs collaborateurs (Laborie et Abord de Chatillon, 2022) et que bon nombre d'entre eux peinent encore un trouver un équilibre dans ce rôle. L'ambition de ce chapitre est de mettre en lumière les différents types de tensions que peut provoquer le télétravail et les ressources que les managers de proximité mobilisent pour surmonter ces tensions développer des modalités d'encadrement plus durables. L'apport majeur de ce chapitre sera alors de proposer des clés de gestion et des stratégies d'ajustement (Folkman et Lazarus, 1980 ; Rivière et al., 2013) permettant de limiter les tensions face auxquelles les managers se montrent encore démunies. Ce chapitre s'appuie sur une étude mixte menée auprès d'une branche de la sécurité sociale française, dont les salariés et les managers ont découvert la pratique du télétravail à l'occasion de la crise sanitaire. Ils ont été interrogés par questionnaire décembre 2021 et février 2022 (enquête quantitative), puis rencontrés entre janvier et juin 2022 (enquête qualitative). Au total, 4495 salariés issus de 27 organismes départements ont répondu au questionnaire et 193 salariés issus de 3 organismes départements ont participé à des entretiens semi-directifs. Ces entretiens ont permis d'interrogés 32 équipes et leur manager de proximité, ainsi que 12 de leurs managers stratégiques. |
| Keywords: | Espaces de discussion du travail, Management partenarial, Contrôle habilitant, Tensions managériales, Télétravail |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05563923 |
| By: | Wabenga Lungela S. (UNIKIN - University of Kinshasa); Mutumbi Wakyatula A. |
| Abstract: | This study aims to identify the factors explaining the financial performance of pan-African banks through accounting and economic analyses. African economic communities, particularly the WAEMU, SADC, EAC, and Central Africa are striving for sustainable development, which depends on the stability of their financial systems. Given that pan-African banks operate in a context marked by regional integration, financial globalization, and recurring crises, notably the subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2008). The strong interconnectedness with the international financial system exposes African banks to systemic risks, making financial stability not only necessary but imperative. In this context, bank profitability is a key lever for resilience, enabling the strengthening of equity capital, the absorption of shocks, and the ensuring the sustainability of credit institutions. Subject to international prudential standards (Basel I, II, and III), digital transformation, and competition from fintechs due to digital transformation, pan-African banks musts optimize their performance. The top four of the subgroups of pan-Africa banks (strata), operating in the DRC and drawn from the entire set of Congolese banks, constitute the sample for this study. The better exploit the richness of our data, combining temporal and cross-sectional dimensions, we used econometric approaches know as :Basic linear models, which, on the one hand, allow us to control for unobservable characteristics specific to each pan-African bank that do not vary over time (Fixed Effects, FE), and on the other hand, consider that the differences in financial performance between banks are random and uncorrelated with explanatory variables (Random Effects, RE). The Hausman correction (or specification) method was used in choosing the fixed effects model and the random effects models, to verify whether the individual effects are correlated with the explanatory variables. After data analysis, the Hausman specification test revealed that the fixed effects model is appropriate for the study data the fixed-effects model estimation indicates that the return on equity (ROE) ratio and the asset turnover ratio positively influence the financial performance (ROE) of pan-African banks in the RDC, while the capital adequacy ratio has no significant influence on their financial performance. Notwithstanding these two significant factors, it is important to demonstrate the influence of unobservable characteristics that contribute to the improved financial performance of pan-African banks. These characteristics do exist and are specific to each bank in the within this stratum. They can be identified by each bank's governance model, its portfolio management model in terms of credit policies, its level of intervention in financial markets, its position in the interbank market, it its risk management practices, and so on. Practical Implications: The research findings suggest that governments and authorities recommend that pan-African banks increase their regulatory capital to improve their solvency levels and improve their credit allocation to reduce Credit risk. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude vise à identifier les facteurs explicatifs de la performance financière des banques panafricaines à travers des analyses comptables et économiques. Les communautés économiques Africaines, notamment l'UEMOA, la SADC, l'EAC et l'Afrique centrale, visent un développement durable qui passe par la stabilité de leurs systèmes financiers. Étant donné que les banques panafricaines évoluent dans un contexte marqué par l'intégration régionale, la mondialisation financière et la récurrence des crises, notamment celle de subprimes (2007-2008). La forte interconnexion avec le système financier international leur expose à des risques systémiques, rendant la stabilité financière non seulement nécessaire, mais une impérative. Dans ce contexte, la rentabilité bancaire constitue un levier central de leur résilience, permettant de renforcer les fonds propres pour absorber les chocs, ainsi pérenniser leurs activités. Soumises aux contraintes normatives prudentielles nationales et internationales (Bâle I, II et III), à la concurrence des fintechs due aux transformations numériques, les banques panafricaines se doivent d'optimiser leur performance financière. Le raisonnement logique est la déduction, la collecte des données est réalisée grâce à la technique d'échantillonnage aléatoire stratifié. Les Top 4 du sous-groupe de banques Panafricaines (strates), œuvrant en RDC tirés dans l'ensemble de banques Congolaises constituent l'échantillon pour cette étude. Afin de mieux exploiter la richesse de nos données combinant la dimension temporelle et transversale, nous avons recouru aux approches économétriques dites : Modèles linéaires de base qui, d'une part permettent de contrôler les caractéristiques inobservables propres à chaque banque panafricaine qui ne varient pas dans le temps (Effets fixes, FE), d'autre part, considèrent que les différences de performances financières entre banques sont aléatoires et non corrélées avec les variables explicatives (Effets aléatoires, RE). La méthode de correction (ou de spécification) d'Hausman nous a servi dans le choix du modèle à effets fixes et le modèle à effets aléatoires, de vérifier si les effets individuels sont corrélés avec les variables explicatives. Après analyse des données, il s'est révélé que le modèle à effets fixes est approprié aux données de l'étude de départ le test de spécification d'Hausman. L'estimation du modèle à effets fixes renseigne que le ratio de rentabilité commerciale et le ratio de rotation d'actifs influencent positivement la performance financière (ROE) des banques panafricaines en RDC, alors que le ratio de coefficient de fonds propres n'exerce aucune influence significative sur la performance financière des banques Panafricaines. Nonobstant aux deux facteurs à impact significatif, il convient de montrer l'influence des caractéristiques non observables qui concourent à l'amélioration des performances financières des banques panafricaines. Celles-ci existent bel et bien et sont propres à chaque banque de la strate. Elles peuvent s'identifier par le modèle de gouvernance propre à chaque banque, le modèle de pilotage du portefeuille bancaire en termes de politiques des crédits, le niveau d'intervention sur les marchés financiers, de la posture sur le marché interbancaire, la maitrise des risques, etc. Implications pratiques : les résultats de la recherche proposent que les gouvernements et les autorités suggèrent aux banques panafricaines d'accroitre leurs fonds propres réglementaires afin d'améliorer leur niveau de solvabilité d'une part, et de bien améliorer leur allocation de crédits afin de réduire le risque de crédits. |
| Keywords: | equity ratio, Pan-Africanism. JEL Classification : G2 G21 G24 G28 G32 G38. Paper type: Empirical Research, Pan-Africanism. JEL Classification : G2, G21, G24, G28, G32, G38. Paper type: Empirical Research, asset turnover, profitability, financial performance, performance, Bank |
| Date: | 2026–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05523386 |
| By: | Keaton Ellis; Wanying Huang |
| Abstract: | As AI agents become more autonomous, properly aligning their objectives with human preferences becomes increasingly important. We study how effectively an AI agent learns a human principal's preference in choice under risk via stated versus revealed preferences. We conduct an online experiment in which subjects state their preferences through written instructions ("prompts") and reveal them through choices in a series of binary lottery questions ("data"). We find that on average, an AI agent given revealed-preference data predicts subjects' choices more accurately than an AI agent given stated-preference prompts. Further analysis suggests that the gap is driven by subjects' difficulty in translating their own preferences into written instructions. When given a choice between which information source to give to an AI agent, a large portion of subjects fail to select the more informative one. Moreover, when predictions from the two sources conflict, we find that the AI agent aligns more frequently with the prompt, despite its lower accuracy. Overall, these results highlight the revealed preference approach as a powerful mechanism for communicating human preferences to AI agents, but its success depends on careful implementation. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29317 |
| By: | Ali Kakhbod; Amir Kermani; Bernardo Maciel |
| Abstract: | Does the Federal Reserve react to all inflation equally? We systematically analyze FOMC meeting records from 1937 to 2025 to construct meeting-level measures of the Fed’s real-time attribution of inflation to demand and supply pressures. We document substantial variation in these narratives over time and show that, since Volcker, the Fed has responded more aggressively to perceived demand-driven inflation. Consistent with this asymmetry, supply pressures have more persistent effects on realized inflation, while demand pressures' impact dissipates quickly. Financial markets also reflect this distinction: demand imbalances primarily move risk-neutral yields, whereas supply imbalances raise term premia and equity risk premia. |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35016 |
| By: | Stéphane Benveniste (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the overrepresentation of students with aristocratic ancestry in elite higher education. It relies on a sample of 269, 917 students from ten leading French grandes écoles between 1911 and 2015 and uses surname‑based indicators of nobility. Individuals with aristocratic ancestry are between six and nine times more likely to enrol in one of these ten grandes écoles than the rest of the population, compared to eleven to fifteen times a century ago. While historically concentrated at Sciences Po Paris, their presence has become more evenly distributed across top‑tier institutions, with business schools now showing the highest levels of overrepresentation. The analysis also shows that noble men are more overrepresented than noble women in these top‑tier institutions, although this gap has narrowed. These results underscore that beyond the abolition of legal privileges, historical hierarchies persist. Future research could distinguish the extent to which this persistence may reflect the transmission of social, educational, cultural, or economic capital. |
| Abstract: | Cet article quantifie la surreprésentation des étudiants d'origine aristocratique dans les grandes écoles les plus prestigieuses. Il s'appuie sur un échantillon de 269 917 étudiants de dix grandes écoles entre 1911 et 2015 et mobilise des indicateurs d'ascendance aristocratique fondés sur le nom de famille. Les individus d'ascendance noble ont, sur la période récente, entre six et neuf fois plus de chances d'intégrer l'une de ces dix grandes écoles que le reste de la population, contre onze à quinze fois au début du XX è siècle. Alors qu'ils étaient historiquement concentrés à Sciences Po Paris, leur présence est désormais plus uniformément répartie entre les établissements les plus prestigieux, les écoles de commerce affichant les niveaux de surreprésentation les plus élevés. Les hommes d'ascendance noble sont par ailleurs davantage surreprésentés que les femmes dans ces grandes écoles, même si l'écart s'est réduit. Ces résultats montrent qu'au-delà de l'abolition de privilèges juridiques, des hiérarchies historiques peuvent persister. Des recherches futures pourraient contribuer à distinguer ce qui, dans cette persistance, relève notamment de la transmission d'un capital social, scolaire, culturel ou encore économique. |
| Keywords: | higher education, nobility and aristocracy, history of inequality, enseignement supérieur prestigieux, grandes écoles, noblesse et aristocratie, histoire des inégalités elite |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05567573 |
| By: | Alexandre Truc (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05543096 |
| By: | Sizhong Sun |
| Abstract: | This paper studies firms' optimal response to a trade liberalization shock in terms of export and product innovation both theoretically and empirically. We find that trade liberalization, namely China's WTO accession, reduces trade cost and promotes export, which in turn incentivizes firms to innovate as the marginal benefit of innovation for exporting firms is higher than that for non-exporting firms. In addition, as a firm starts to innovate, it predicts to have a higher probability of moving to a better productivity state and can save the entry cost of innovation in the future, resulting in additional dynamic benefits. Such an innovation-promotion effect is an unintended consequence of trade liberalization. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.23825 |
| By: | Schmalz, Stefan; Zierold, Karla |
| Keywords: | Kfz-Industrie, Branchenkrise, Arbeitsbeziehungen, Tarifverhandlungen, Sozialpartner, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsieqt:339610 |
| By: | Keil, Samuel; Gür, Yasin; Iqbal, Saffeulrrahman; Schiereck, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Split Ratings, bei denen sich verschiedene Ratingagenturen uneins sind in der Bonitätseinstufung eines Schuldners, erschweren Investoren die Bewertung von Fremdkapitaltiteln und können die Kreditkosten erhöhen. Deshalb ist ein Verständnis für die Ursachen von Split Ratings bedeutsam für das Verständnis der Preisbildung an Kreditmärkten. Die Studie untersucht, ob die Unternehmenskomplexität des Schuldners mit dem Auftreten und der Ausprägung von Split Ratings zusammenhängt. Auf Basis eines Datensatzes US-börsennotierter Unternehmen (1996 – 2021) werden Kreditratings der Agenturen S&P, Moody’s und Fitch mit dem textbasierten Komplexitätsmaß nach Loughran und McDonald (2024) sowie unternehmensspezifischen Kennzahlen verknüpft. Methodisch kommen logistische und ordinale Regressionsmodelle zum Einsatz, in denen vier Hypothesen (Auftreten, Differenz in Notches, Überschreiten der Investment-/Speculative-Grade-Schwelle, Zusammenhang mit zurückgezogenen Ratings) geprüft werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zwar keinen signifikanten Einfluss der Komplexität in den 10-K-Berichten auf das Auftreten, die Höhe oder die Relevanzschwelle von Split Ratings. Aber die Nettodateigröße der 10-K-Berichte ist ein relevanter Prädiktor: Sie erhöht sowohl die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Split Ratings als auch deren Differenz. Je umfangreicher zentrale Unternehmensdokumente sind, desto eher kommen die bedeutendsten Ratingagenturen der Welt also zu unterschiedlichen Bonitätseinstufungen. |
| Date: | 2026–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:159683 |
| By: | Codreanu, Tatia (Imperial College London) |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence is reshaping the film and media industries across production, post-production, performance, rights management, distribution, and audience trust. This paper argues that AI should be analysed as an infrastructural transformation that reorganises transaction costs, labour bargaining power, contractual control, and informational asymmetries across the media value chain. Building on Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction, Coasean transaction-cost economics, and labour-monopsony theory, the paper proposes the General Theory of Creative Disruption+ (GTCD+). Within this framework, it introduces five analytical tools: the Risk-Adjusted Efficiency-Complexity Ratio (RA-ECR), the Transparency Asymmetry Principle, the Likeness Lock-In Risk (LLR), the Visibility Control Function (VCF), and the Authenticity and Trust Index (ATI). This is a conceptual and normative framework paper. These constructs are presented as illustrative heuristic instruments for analysing AI adoption. Future work is needed to calibrate and test them empirically in specific domains before they can support predictive or decision-oriented use. The paper situates them in relation to recent industry and regulatory developments, including AI-assisted screen production, disputes over training-data governance, synthetic- performer regulation, and audience disclosure expectations. It concludes with four policy recommendations for more sustainable integration of AI in film and media, including the proposed De Havilland Threshold for digital- likeness contracts. |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:mediar:j8xnw_v1 |
| By: | Valli, Roberto (ETH Zürich) |
| Abstract: | Difference-in-differences designs often study place-based treatments that can trigger migration in and out of treated areas. When treatment changes who is observed, aggregate and within-individual DiD no longer retrieve the average treatment effect on the treated. This paper uses principal stratification to characterize three estimands under treatment-induced migration: a locality-level treatment effect, a stayer average treatment effect, and an individual ATT for the pre-treatment population. Aggregate DiD identifies the locality-level effect under aggregate parallel trends, while within-individual DiD identifies the stayer effect under stayer parallel trends. Together, the two assumptions imply parallel trends for escapees, a non-trivial restriction on the group whose departure drives compositional change. With panel data, the stayer effect and the compositional term are point-identified, and the ATT lies in a one-parameter sensitivity region. With repeated cross-sections, Lee-type bounds apply in the one-sided exit case. An appendix extends these results to natural turnover and treated-control interference. |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s7pw3_v1 |
| By: | Kamlage, Jan-Hendrik; Rogall, Marius; Sasse, David; Mohr, Kim |
| Abstract: | Der Ausbau der Stromübertragungsnetze spielt im Rahmen der deutschen Energiewende eine zentrale Rolle, aber führt in den betroffenen Kommunen regelmäßig zu Konflikten. Die Übertragungsnetzbetreiber (ÜNB) setzen auf informelle Formate der Stakeholderbeteiligung, um die Akzeptanz und Legitimität der Stromleitungsprojekte zu fördern. Diese informellen Beteiligungsprozesse haben die ÜNB in den letzten 15 Jahren kontinuierlich weiterentwickelt. Ziel des Beitrags ist es, diese Entwicklung kritisch zu beleuchten. Der Beitrag zeigt auf, wie sich frühe experimentelle und dialogorientierte Ansätze zu zunehmend professionalisierten und standardisierten, kampagnenartigen Beteiligungsformaten entwickelt haben. Während diese Praktiken die Transparenz und Akzeptanz von Planungsverfahren und der ÜNB als Projektentwickler erhöhen, bleibt ihr Einfluss auf die Akzeptanz der Infrastrukturprojekte selbst begrenzt. Auf der Grundlage dieser Analyse identifiziert der Beitrag fünf strukturelle Hindernisse – ungleiche Verteilung von Lasten und Nutzen, hohe Komplexität und Ressourcenknappheit, begrenzte lokale Entscheidungsbefugnisse, die Doppelrolle der ÜNB sowie lokal spezifische Akzeptanzkonstellationen –, die die Wirksamkeit informeller Beteiligung systematisch einschränken. Abschließend plädiert der Beitrag für einen systemischen und kontextsensitiven Ansatz für die lokale Governance der Energieinfrastruktur. The expansion of electricity transmission grids plays a central role in Germany’s energy transition, but regularly leads to conflicts in the local communities affected. Transmission system operators (TSOs) rely on informal forms of stakeholder engagement to promote acceptance and legitimacy of power line projects. The TSOs have continuously refined these informal engagement processes over the last 15 years. The aim of this paper is to critically examine this development. It demonstrates how early experimental and dialogue-oriented approaches have evolved into increasingly professionalised and standardised, campaign-style participation formats. Whilst these practices enhance the transparency and acceptance of planning procedures and of the TSOs as project developers, their influence on the acceptance of the infrastructure projects themselves remains limited. Based on this analysis, the paper identifies five structural barriers – unequal distribution of costs and benefits, high complexity and resource scarcity, limited local decision-making powers, the dual role of the TSO, and locally specific acceptance constellations – which systematically limit the effectiveness of informal participation. In conclusion, the paper advocates a systemic and context-sensitive approach to the local governance of energy infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8e34r_v1 |
| By: | Lukasz Gebski; Georges Daw (Université Paris-Saclay, Faculté Jean Monnet Droit, Économie, Management,); Krzysztof Waliszewski; Mateusz Folwarski; Oleksii Druhov |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this article is to examine the factors that may influence the misidentification of the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) payment system, with a particular focus onwhether its popularity is due not only to user adoption incentives but also to a fundamental misinterpretation of its financial nature. In particular, the article addresses the question to what extent consumers perceive BNPL as a financial product distinct from traditional credit and how this perception shapes their financial behavior and decision-making. Although BNPL is frequently promoted as a seamless and interest-free alternative to credit cards, growing evidence indicates that many consumers fail to recognize it as a form of debt. This misconception may stem both from deliberate marketing strategies employed byBNPL providers and from cognitive biases that influence financial decision-making. The article investigates whether consumers' limited financial literacy, along with psychological heuristics—such as the framing effect, present bias, and mental accounting—play a rolein the rapid adoption of BNPL, often without a full awareness of its potential financial implications. The research area defined in this way is particularly interesting because it is a new approach to the analysis of deferred payments. Many studies have been conducted on the BNPL market and the structure of the financial product itself, but the source of its false perception has been very rarely addressed. Critical analysis of the literature and previous scientific research on the subject. Empirical data verifying knowledge about BNPL and its perception by consumers come from research conducted in January 2024 using the PAPI and CAWI methods on a sample of 1002 Poles and in March 2025 using the CAWI method on a sample of 343 European students and their families. The article also refers to the positions of European financial market regulators from the perspective of actions to be taken. The conducted consumer research revealed a common misconception about the nature of the product, which is BNPL. Many people, especially young people, perceive BNPLnot as a financial service (consumer credit), but as an extension of the store's commercial offer, which in its own name and on its own behalf decides to accept deferred payment for a product or service. It was also revealed that the use of BNPL facilitates the emergence of heuristics and other behavioral factors influencing the consumers' misconception about the nature of this financial product.The presented consumer research and scientific research studies lead to an interesting conclusion, according to which the popularity of BNPL may result to a large extent from the consumers' misconception that it is not a form of credit. This has significant consequences for the reflection on the adaptation of consumer protection regulations on the financial market and forces specific actions on the part of financial market supervisors. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser les facteurs pouvant conduire à une mauvaise identification du dispositif Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), en examinant si sa popularité résulte non seulement des incitations à l'adoption, mais aussi d'une mésinterprétation sur sa nature financière. Il s'agit plus précisément d'évaluer dans quelle mesure les consommateurs perçoivent le BNPL comme un produit distinct du crédit traditionnel et comment cette perception influence leurs comportements financiers. Bien que souvent présenté comme une alternative simple (et sans intérêts) aux cartes de crédit, le BNPL est fréquemment mal reconnue comme une forme d'endettement. Cette confusion semble découler à la fois de stratégies marketing des fournisseurs et de biais cognitifs affectant la décision financière, tels que l'effet de cadrage, le biais de présentisme et la comptabilité mentale. L'article examine ainsi le rôle de la littératie financière limitée et des heuristiques psychologiques dans l'adoption rapide du BNPL, souvent sans conscience complète de ses implications. L'approche retenue apporte une perspective nouvelle à l'étude du paiement différé, la question de l'origine de la perception erronée ayant été peu étudiée. L'analyse mobilise la littérature existante et des données empiriques issues d'enquêtes menées en 2024 (PAPI et CAWI, 1 002 répondants en Pologne) et en 2025 (CAWI, 343 étudiants européens et leurs familles). Elle s'appuie également sur les positions des régulateurs financiers européens. Les résultats montrent une méconnaissance répandue de la nature du BNPL : de nombreux consommateurs, particulièrement les plus jeunes, le considèrent non comme un crédit à la consommation, mais comme un simple prolongement d'une offre commerciale. L'usage du BNPL favorise par ailleurs l'émergence d'heuristiques et d'autres facteurs comportementaux renforçant cette perception biaisée. L'ensemble des analyses conduit à l'idée que la popularité du BNPL pourrait s'expliquer en grande partie par la croyance erronée qu'il ne constitue pas une forme de crédit. Cette conclusion soulève des enjeux importants pour l'adaptation des règles de protection des consommateurs sur le marché financier et appel à une action renforcée des autorités de supervision. |
| Keywords: | G53 Czy popularność BNPL wynika z błędnych przekonań konsumentów na temat tego produktu finansowego? Abstrakt BNPL, finanse gospodarstw domowych, wiedza finansowa, finanse konsumenckie, G23, behavioral finance JEL Classification Codes: D12, fintech, household finance, financial literacy, consumer finance, BNPL, BNPL consumer finance financial literacy household finance fintech behavioral finance JEL Classification Codes: D12 G23 G53 Czy popularność BNPL wynika z błędnych przekonań konsumentów na temat tego produktu finansowego? Abstrakt BNPL finanse konsumenckie wiedza finansowa finanse gospodarstw domowych fintech |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05401236 |
| By: | Claudia Curi; Andreas Dibiasi; Matteo Ploner; Mirco Tonin |
| Abstract: | We study whether gender-biased financial advice contributes to the gender gap in pension wealth. Using administrative records from four private pension funds in Italy, we document that women are ceteris paribus 8 percentage points less likely than men to choose stock-focused investment lines at the time of enrollment. To assess whether advisory behavior contributes to this gap, we conduct a vignette-based survey experiment among pension advisors affiliated to the four funds, randomly varying the gender of otherwise identical prospective 25-year-old clients. Advisors are 22 percentage points less likely to recommend stock-oriented portfolios to female clients, even after conditioning on advisors' beliefs about relevant client characteristics. We further show that a simple information intervention that makes advisors aware of the documented gender bias eliminates this gap in the experimental setting. Linking advisors to real clients in the administrative data, we demonstrate that the gender gap in actual investment choices shrinks by approximately 60% during the five months following the intervention. This evidence suggests that gender bias in financial advice is largely implicit and that low-cost informational feedback to advisors can meaningfully reduce gender disparities in retirement wealth accumulation. |
| Keywords: | biased advice, gender, pension, implicit bias |
| JEL: | J16 G53 J32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12569 |
| By: | Anselme Njocke (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) |
| Abstract: | Ce cours contient six chapitres (avec beaucoup d'exemples). Il est accompagné de tests ainsi que de leurs corrigés. Le chapitre 1 est consacré à un rappel de notions mathématiques (telles que la fonction, le domaine de définition, l'ensemble de valeurs d'une fonction et d'une application ; les voisinages, les limites et la continuité ; les fonctions dérivables et les dérivées ; les fonctions dérivées, les dérivées successives, les primitives et les intégrales) dans une première section. La deuxième section est consacrée à un rappel sur les fonctions exponentielles, logarithmiques de base a et les fonctions puissances, les fonctions hyperboliques réelles, les fonctions trigonométriques réelles et fonctions complexes d'une variable complexe. Dans la troisième section un tableau synoptique de quelques dérivées et primitives usuelles est présenté. Le chapitre 2 aborde quelques notions de matrices, de déterminants et de système d'équations linéaires. Le chapitre 3 traite des équations différentielles en ce qui concerne les notations et définitions. Le chapitre 4, une continuité du chapitre 3, traite des équations différentielles du premier ordre. Le chapitre 5 aborde les équations différentielles du deuxième ordre à coefficients constants. Le chapitre 6 aborde les systèmes d'équations différentielles de premier ordre et de second ordre assorties d'exemples. Il est à noter que la résolution de certains problèmes où plusieurs variables sont liées (phénomènes d'interdépendance), avec le sens de leurs évolutions (dérivées premières), tout comme avec leurs accélérations ou leurs décélérations (dérivées secondes), et si leurs accélérations ou leurs décélérations deviennent plus fortes ou moins fortes (dérivées d'ordre 3) etc., fait la plupart du temps recours à ce type de systèmes d'équations. Les tests proposés avec leurs corrigés permettront aux étudiants d'assimiler les différentes notions abordées dans les différents chapitres. |
| Keywords: | dérivées, différentielles, intégrales, équations différentielles d'ordre 1, équations différentielles d'ordre 2 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568544 |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Krohn, Johanna; Liu, Wan-Hsin; Reents, Jan |
| Abstract: | The world economy remained robust in 2025 despite the strains caused by the trade conflicts and the resulting increased uncertainty and entered the new year with decent momentum. However, the war with Iran now threatens to severely disrupt energy supplies, with potentially serious consequences for economic activity. It is, however, currently widely expected that production and transport of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf will return to normal levels relatively soon. In this case, which also forms the basis of our forecast, the effects would not be substantial and would be limited to a slight dampening of global production and a temporary rise in inflation. We therefore expect the global economy to remain on an upward trend, buoyed by strong impetus for trade and investment from the boom in AI technology. Monetary policy has been significantly loosened worldwide over the past year and is now supporting the economy in most countries. In addition, a number of countries are providing stimulus through fiscal policy. While the economic outlook in China remains clouded, the expansion in the United States should remain robust. In Europe, the gradual economic recovery is likely to continue from the second half of this year onwards, following a few months of slowdown caused by high energy prices. All in all, and unchanged from our forecast of last December, we expect global output - measured on the basis of purchasing power parities - to grow by 3.1 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the developments in the Middle East, there is a significant risk of a considerable slowdown in the global economy. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:339638 |
| By: | Mounaim El Hayani (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Fatiha Benamar |
| Abstract: | The integration of digital skills is a central requirement for higher and vocational education. This systematic review synthesises evidence of the impact of digital technologies on pedagogical processes, student motivation and learner engagement. In line with PRISMA guidelines, we analysed 49 peer-reviewed articles published between 2020 and 2024. A thematic analysis was conducted, structured around three interconnected themes: pedagogical process transformation, student motivation and learner engagement. The main findings reveal the widespread adoption of technologies such as learning management systems, gamification and immersive tools, which effectively support personalised and blended learning. However, significant challenges remain, including inequalities of access, a lack of standardisation of tools and à paucity of longitudinal research exploring the socio-emotional dimensions of digital learning. The study concludes that the success of digital transformation depends not just on technology, but on its thoughtful integration into the design of education. It highlights the crucial need for solid teacher training and institutional strategies that prioritise human factors in order to promote equitable digital learning experiences |
| Abstract: | L'intégration des compétences numériques est un impératif pour l'enseignement supérieur et la formation professionnelle. Cette revue systématique, menée selon le protocole PRISMA sur 49 articles (2020-2024), analyse l'impact des technologies sur la pédagogie, la motivation et l'engagement des apprenants. L'analyse thématique révèle une adoption croissante des plateformes d'apprentissage (LMS), de la ludification et des outils immersifs, favorisant des parcours personnalisés et hybrides. Cependant, des défis majeurs subsistent : inégalités d'accès, manque de standardisation des outils et rareté des études longitudinales sur les dimensions socio-émotionnelles. En conclusion, la réussite de la transformation numérique repose moins sur la technologie que sur son intégration réfléchie dans l'ingénierie pédagogique. L'étude souligne le besoin crucial de former les enseignants et de développer des stratégies institutionnelles centrées sur l'humain pour garantir un apprentissage numérique équitable. |
| Keywords: | PRISMA, Digital skills, Learner engagement, Vocational Training, Higher Education, Digital Transformation, Digital Transformation Higher Education Vocational Training Learner engagement Digital skills PRISMA, PRISMA Transformation numérique, Enseignement supérieur, Formation professionnelle, Engagement de l'apprenant, Compétences numériques |
| Date: | 2026–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05498974 |
| By: | Miriam Bruhn (World Bank); Asli Demirguc-Kunt (Center for Global Development); Dorothe Singer (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the medium-run effects of government support to firms during the COVID-19 crisis and whether the effectiveness of this support varied with its timing. Using data from three rounds of the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys COVID-19 Follow-up Surveys carried out between May 2020 and August 2022, it relates government support in Round 1 and 2 with firm performance in Round 3. Our results add to the existing literature on government support during the COVID-19 shock and previous crises, which has provided little evidence on how the effect of this support varies with its timing. Controlling for a host of background characteristics, firms that received support in Round 1 performed better in terms of Round 3 sales, but only if they did not have continued support. Firms that also received support in Round 2 had similar Round 3 sales to those who received no support. Firms that received government support only in Round 2 experienced no boost in Round 3 performance. The findings suggest that government support should be provided promptly, but it should also be phased out quickly. |
| Keywords: | Government support, COVID-19, productivity, firms |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H81 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:742 |
| By: | Cram, W. Alec; D’Arcy, John; Benlian, Alexander |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:158971 |
| By: | D. J. Manuge |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to describe and extend the use of the newly-introduced measure, residual estimation risk. Following the seminal work of Bignozzi and Tsanakas, the quantification of residual estimation risk is proposed in a multivariate framework. Our aim is to provide a succinct and practical introduction to the concept, to motivate its use as a back-testing measure, and to provide examples related to credit risk parameter estimation. In section 2, we introduce residual estimation risk defined by various risk measures, and illustrate the calculation using R and SAS. In section 3, we propose a back-testing criterion for the measure, which can be altered to assess model performance for both accuracy and conservatism. In section 4, we conduct back-testing on risk parameter estimates of retail credit portfolios, including multiple back-testing measures for comparison. Finally, we conclude our findings and propose areas for future work in section 5. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.17792 |
| By: | Randall Guynn |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:102944 |
| By: | Fernando Rios-Avila (Universidad Privada Boliviana); Andrey Ramos (Bank of Spain); Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza (World Bank and Universidad Privada Boliviana); Leonardo Siles (Universidad de Chile) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a method to estimate quantile regression models with multiple fixed effects. We extend the quantile–via–moments estimator of Machado and Santos Silva (2019) and suggest a computationally efficient Frisch–Waugh–Lovell residualization to partial out additive fixed effects in both the location and scale equations. A unified influence-function inference framework is derived, accommodating heteroskedasticity-robust, clustered, and feasible GLS standard errors. Monte Carlo simulations provide strong support for the validity of the proposed procedure in applications with multi-way unobserved heterogeneity and intra-cluster correlated disturbances. An empirical application to Climate Growth-at-Risk illustrates how temperature shocks affect the conditional distribution of macroeconomic outcomes in a panel of 194 countries. Our findings suggest that in low income countries, downside risks to growth are more strongly linked to temperature shocks than the central tendency or upside risks. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2615 |