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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | António Afonso; Leonardo Zorzi |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, a growing body of research questioned the conventional inflation-targeting framework that has long guided monetary policy, arguing that the inflation targets adopted by major central banks may have been set too low. We evaluate the likelihood that advanced economies will become constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates in the future. Therefore, using end-quarter data over the period 1999Q1 to 2025Q4, we develop a counterfactual framework that quantifies how this risk changes under alternative scenarios with higher average inflation. Using a vector autoregression model and an ARDL-ECM framework, we estimate the cumulative probability of hitting the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), that is, the probability that policy rates reach the constraint at least once during the projection horizon. Our results indicate that Switzerland and Japan face the highest risk of encountering the ZLB, whereas Sweden, the Euro Area, the United States, and Canada exhibit an intermediate level of risk. By contrast, the United Kingdom and Norway appear to be the least vulnerable. These findings are broadly consistent with cross-country differences in average inflation and nominal interest rate levels. |
| Keywords: | inflation, inflation targeting, monetary policy, zero lower bound, VAR, ARDL |
| JEL: | E02 E31 E47 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12920 |
| By: | Nikolay Hristov; Dominik Menno |
| Abstract: | We study how long-run inflation affects systemic bank-run risk in a medium-scale New Keynesian model with banks and endogenous financial panics. In the benchmark calibration, the bank-run probability more than doubles when annual trend inflation increases from zero to six percent. Higher trend inflation makes price-setting firms more forward-looking, thereby muting expected real-rate declines and amplifying the fall in asset prices during crises. The zero lower bound raises run risk only at low long-run inflation rates. Disinflationary transitions can sharply increase short-run risk, especially if a "cold turkey" disinflation is pursued. Finally, we discuss implications for monetary and macroprudential policy trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | long-run inflation, bank runs, financial panics, crisis probability |
| JEL: | E12 E23 E31 E32 E44 E52 G01 G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12918 |
| By: | Mottaleb, Khondoker |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether India’s rice market is insulated from external price variability shocks using monthly data on domestic rice prices, international rice prices, crude oil prices, fertilizer prices, and exchange rates. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework is employed to analyze both short-run and long-run volatility transmission. The results indicate strong integration between domestic wholesale and retail rice-price variability, while direct effects from international rice markets remain weak. Exchange-rate variability emerges as the most important external transmission channel. Overall, the findings suggest that India’s rice market is partially insulated from global price volatility, although external shocks continue to influence domestic markets indirectly through broader macroeconomic conditions. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404681 |
| By: | Vives, Xavier; Ye, Zhiqiang |
| Abstract: | We provide a spatial framework to study competition between banks and fintechs in the lending market and examine the impact on investment and welfare. Based on the key differences between banks and fintechs, we derive results consistent with the empirical evidence available. We find that fintechs with inferior monitoring efficiency can successfully enter because of their superior flexibility in pricing and that higher bank concentration leads to higher fintech loan volume. If fintechs and banks have similar funding costs, fintech borrowers pay lower loan rates and have higher default rates than bank borrowers with similar characteristics; however, the result will flip if fintechs have much higher funding costs than banks. The advantage of fintechs in offering convenience can also induce them to charge higher loan rates than banks. Fintech entry will improve welfare if fintechs have high monitoring efficiency and interfintech competition intensity is intermediate. Fintech entry may induce banks’ exit and reduce investment; however, it will increase investment if inter-fintech competition is intense enough. |
| JEL: | G21 G23 I31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19245 |
| By: | Mette Ejrnaes (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Thomas H. Joergensen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Franziska Valder (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Understanding how households use family planning to navigate constraints is important for policy design. We exploit a large Danish retirement reform that affected intergenerational time transfers to study how family planning responds to changes in time constraint tightness. Using administrative data on the universe of abortions and prescriptions for planned and emergency oral contraception, we show that alleviating time constraints reduces both abortions and contraceptive use and thereby shifts behavior toward childbirth. Our results highlight that time constraints shape responses to especially unplanned pregnancies and that policies easing household constraints may influence abortion behavior and family planning. |
| Keywords: | Time constraints, Unintended pregnancies, Abortion, Contraceptives, Childbirth, Childcare, Retirement Reform. |
| JEL: | J13 I38 D64 |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2616 |
| By: | Istrefi, Klodiana; Odendahl, Florens; Sestieri, Giulia |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Euro Area Communication Event-Study Database (EACED), a new dataset tracking intraday financial market movements around 304 ECB Governing Council meetings (ECBGC) and 5, 100 inter-meeting communication (IMC) events by GC members, primarily in the form of speeches and interviews. We document that IMC events are associated with significant market movements often comparable to, or larger than, those following ECB policy announcements, particularly for longer maturity yields. Importantly, these effects are not limited to communication from the ECB President but also from other Governing Council members. Like ECBGC announcements, IMC events convey multidimensional information: three structurally identified factors explain a large share of the yield curve movements around IMC surprises. Finally, we show that IMC events provide relevant information for identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on euro area output and inflation in a Bayesian Vector Autoregression model. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Ecb; Financial markets; Euro area |
| JEL: | E03 E50 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19242 |
| By: | Winslow, Jared; Peacock, Jacob Robert (Stanford University); , Jayisha Dhargawe (St. Francis De Sales College); Sherman, Hailey; Green, Seth Ariel (Code Ocean); Mathur, Maya B |
| Abstract: | Plant-based alternative proteins are widely expected to displace meat consumption and, in turn, reorient the global food system away from the externalities of animal agriculture, but little empirical work has assessed these presumed substitution effects in naturalistic settings. Here, we use a dataset of 1.2 million transactions across seven restaurants and eight years to investigate whether introducing modern alternative proteins to restaurant menus reduces purchases of meat-containing dishes. We analyzed effects on total meat purchases and on category-matched purchases, pairing each alternative protein with the meat it emulates; we also estimate individual (within-customer) purchasing changes. Our results from 40 preregistered outcome-exposure pairings are overwhelmingly null, whether pooled across restaurants or stratified by restaurant. These findings challenge the widespread belief that alternative proteins displace meat purchases. |
| Date: | 2026–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tpyk9_v1 |
| By: | Bayatlioglu, Rifat |
| Abstract: | The paper brings together the findings and policy recommendations of a comparative study examining Türkiye's global standing across three axes: income-distribution inequality, inflation, and the informal/illicit-money economy. The study's central motivation is that these three indicators should not be treated as independent technical issues, but as an integrated problem area that mutually reinforces itself and directly affects consumers' purchasing power, wealth distribution, and trust in the market. |
| Keywords: | informal economy, illicit money, money laundering, income inequality, Gini coefficient, inflation, FATF grey list, Türkiye, consumer protection, tax justice |
| JEL: | E0 |
| Date: | 2026–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:130348 |
| By: | Diane E. Alexander; Molly Schnell |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how selection into medicine in the United States influences physician practice styles. We exploit macroeconomic conditions at the time of medical school application as an exogenous shock to the applicant pool and find that labor market downturns in other prestigious fields increase applications to medical school and shift the composition of matriculating cohorts toward students from non–pre-medical backgrounds. Strikingly, these low–outside-option cohorts practice medicine differently decades later. Conditional on experience, specialty, and outcome year, recession-cohort physicians bill Medicare more per beneficiary despite seeing healthier patients—particularly on discretionary, revenue-generating services—and sort into practice settings with higher-powered financial incentives. The additional spending does not produce detectable improvements in patient health. Taken together, our findings point to stronger financial motivation among those drawn into medicine when outside options are weak and suggest that medical school admissions screen imperfectly on the attributes that ultimately shape how physicians practice. |
| JEL: | E32 I11 I23 J24 J44 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35631 |
| By: | Tim Sargent |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the regional economic and political structure of the UK and Canada, and how these have evolved over time. We look at the regional distribution of industries in both countries, noting both differences and similarities across the two countries, and look at each country’s experience with regional economic development policy and political decentralization over the last fifty years or so. We outline the current structure of economic development programming in Canada, at both the federal and provincial level, as well as programmes by the federal government that target specific sectors. We then look at the outcomes of regional economic development in Canada, which we find to be mixed at best. Finally, we draw out lessons for UK policymakers from the Canadian experience. These include the perceived need for an enduring central government role in regional development, however much political devolution takes place, the importance of political representation for economic development institutions, the tendency to uniformity despite political decentralization, and the existence of some innovative Canadian economic development programmes that bear watching. |
| Keywords: | regional economic policy, UK, Canada, regional development, decentralization, productivity, political economy |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sls:resrep:2501 |
| By: | Andrew Sharpe |
| Abstract: | This report updates the CSLS's previous Atlantic Canada Momentum Index, tracking progress on a scorecard of 19 indicators in six domains: macro-economy, human capital, labour market, innovation and investment, standard of living, and overall life satisfaction. Atlantic Canada has gathered significant economic momentum since the mid-2010s, recording population growth and recording improvements across a broad range of indicators that have significantly outpaced Canada as a whole. The report identifies areas where momentum has been maintained and areas that still lack it, and provides targets for the 2030s. |
| Keywords: | Atlantic Canada, momentum, economic performance, scorecard, population growth, productivity, living standards |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sls:resrep:2408 |
| By: | Felix Montag |
| Abstract: | Current enforcement practice does not consider how mergers alter the merging parties' incentives to petition for trade protection. I document mergers between domestic producers across jurisdictions that are followed by tariff petitions. I develop a model to characterize the trade-policy channel of mergers. Theoretically, a domestic merger raises the profitability of tariffs when offshoring is unavailable; once offshoring is possible, the effect becomes ambiguous. I apply this framework to a merger between domestic producers in the U.S. appliance industry. Empirically, I find that when import competition is weak, the merging parties prefer to lower their own costs through offshoring; when import competition is strong, the merger makes it more profitable for them to raise their foreign rivals' costs through tariffs. The resulting consumer harm is comparable in magnitude to the direct market-power effect. A hypothetical cross-border merger reduces the profitability of tariffs in this market. |
| Keywords: | competition, lobbying, tariffs, protectionism, mergers |
| JEL: | F13 L13 L41 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12880 |
| By: | Li, Youmin |
| Abstract: | For agricultural food economic studies, rich survey instruments capture meaningful heterogeneity, but conventional empirical specifications can become sensitive to co-linearity and endogeneity. This study recognized how consumer perceptions shape olive oil consumption choices, combining unsupervised learning for data quality and structure detection with supervised models for prediction and inference. Using exploratory factor analysis to condense multi-item perception constructs, clustering to identify respondent archetypes and remove low-quality responses, and penalized models ensembles to predict consumption preference, we quantify (i) which perceptions matter most (EFA-PCA), (ii) how effects vary across consumer segments (Cluster and SEM), and (iii) out-of-sample performance under K-fold cross-validation. Results indicate that quality perceptions, taste imagery and price sensitivity are the dominant drivers, with heterogeneity across income and region. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404522 |
| By: | Arthi, Vellore; Richardson, Gary; Van Orden, Mark |
| Abstract: | The failure of the Freedman's Savings Bank (FSB), one of the only Black-serving banks in the early post-bellum South, was an economic catastrophe and one of the great episodes of racial exploitation in post-Emancipation history. It was also most Black Americans' first experience of banking. Can events like these permanently alter financial preferences and behavior? To test this, we examine the impact of FSB collapse on life insurance-holding, an accessible alternative savings vehicle over the late 19th and early 20th centuries. We document a sharp and persistent increase in insurance demand in affected counties following the shock, driven disproportionately by Black customers. We also use FSB migrant flows to disentangle place-based and cohort-based effects, thus identifying psychological and cultural scarring as a distinct mechanism underlying the shift in financial behavior induced by the bank's collapse. Horizontal and intergenerational transmission of preferences help explain the shock’s persistent effects on financial behavior. |
| JEL: | G21 G22 G51 G52 D63 I30 N21 N22 N31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19304 |
| By: | Christ, Alexander; Neuber-Pohl, Caroline; Weller, Sabrina Inez; Milde, Bettina; Granath, Ralf-Olaf |
| Abstract: | Im Jahr 2025 hat sich die Lage auf dem Ausbildungsmarkt verschärft: Trotz steigender Nachfrage sank das Angebot an Ausbildungsstellen und die Zahl der neuen Ausbildungsverträge erneut. Die angespannte wirtschaftliche Lage in Deutschland spiegelt sich somit auch auf dem Ausbildungsmarkt wider. Rund 84.400 Jugendliche blieben bei ihrer Ausbildungssuche erfolglos. Dies sind die zentralen Ergebnisse der BIBB-Analyse zur Entwicklung des Ausbildungsmarkts 2025. Die Analyse stützt sich auf die BIBB-Erhebung zu neu abgeschlossenen Ausbildungsverträgen sowie auf die Ausbildungsmarktstatistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit - jeweils zum Stichtag 30. September. Die Publikation liefert einen umfassenden Überblick über den Ausbildungsmarkt im Jahr 2025 sowie über die aktuellen Entwicklungen von Angebot und Nachfrage. |
| Keywords: | 2025, 2026, Angebot-Nachfrage-Relation, Ausbildungsbeteiligung, Ausbildungsplatzangebot, Ausbildungsplatznachfrage, Ausbildungsstellenbilanz, Ausbildungsstellenmarkt, Mismatch, quantitative Angaben, unbesetzte Ausbildungsplätze |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bibbfb:342996 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | As large recipients and providers of subsidies, the activities of state enterprises (SEs) have the potential to distort trade flows given their growing role in manufacturing supply chains. Countries thus need to have adequate tools at the multilateral, plurilateral, and domestic levels to craft appropriate policy responses. This report focuses on disciplines on SEs that countries have been incorporating in the context of their preferential trade agreements (PTAs). It finds that these PTAs have the potential to go a long way in addressing the issue posed by subsidies and other forms of non-market practices to and by SEs, but the report highlights potential gaps within the disciplines. A key challenge remains their geographical coverage given that jurisdictions with larger subsidies to and by SEs have not yet concluded relevant PTAs. |
| Keywords: | Competition, Free trade agreements, Industrial subsidies, Non-market policies and practices, State-owned enterprises |
| JEL: | F13 F53 H25 H81 O25 |
| Date: | 2026–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:302-en |
| By: | Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe; Cardell, Lila; Farris, Jarrad; Ajewole, Kayode; Johnson, Michael E.; Johnson, William; Lin, Jesse; Valdes, Constanza; Zeng, Wendy |
| Abstract: | This annual report is published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service before September 30 each year as required by section 408(b) of Public Law 480 and 7 U.S.C. 1736b of Public Law 95−98. Based on macroeconomic assumptions completed in September 2025, this report uses the Global Food Assessment (GFA) model to evaluate food demand in 83 low- and middle-income countries and monitor each country’s ability to meet this demand (food and non-food) through its production and local sources. The gap between local food availability and food demand helps identify potential markets for U.S. agricultural products. Grain demand in GFA countries is projected to rise from 1.1 billion tons in 2026 to 1.4 billion tons by 2036, driven mainly by increased needs in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, with grain production growing at only 1.6 percent annually, it will not meet the 2.1 percent annual increase in demand, widening the supply gap. In 2026, 19.5 percent of the population (or 884.4 million people) across 83 of the GFA countries are estimated to be food insecure, measured by the percentage of people consuming less than 2, 100 kilocalories per person per day. By 2036, the number of food-insecure people in these countries is projected to decline by 33.4 percent, reaching 589 million individuals (or 11.4 percent of the GFA population), due to sustained income growth and stable commodity prices. While the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to maintain a surplus in grain production, other regions are expected to face widening deficits. This situation will necessitate a 36-percent rise in the Implied Additional Supply Required from 325.6 million tons in 2026 to 441.7 million tons in 2036. Asia’s food supply gap is projected to grow due to income growth, population expansion, and increased demand for animal products. In Latin America and the Caribbean, rising grain demand driven by income growth and urbanization is projected to result in increasing reliance on imports. Similarly, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to experience a widening grain deficit due to slow production growth and high cereal import dependence. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to face rising food demand driven by population growth, leading to increased dependence on imported grains and higher-value foods. These broad economic trends do not account for localized shocks which may continue to exacerbate food insecurity in vulnerable regions of SSA, MENA, and the Caribbean (e.g., Haiti), regardless of global averages. The projections do not consider the impacts of unforeseen future events—such as weather shocks, armed conflict, and political and economic instability—that may have occurred after the projections were completed. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Productivity Analysis, Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersmp:410193 |
| By: | Ashlyn Cenicola; Corey Garriott |
| Abstract: | New OFR data sheds light on the $5 trillion U.S. NCCBR market and explores its size, risks and future with central clearing (Brief no. 26-05). |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ofr:briefs:26-05 |
| By: | Martin Obradovits; Markus Walzl |
| Abstract: | Consumers increasingly care about the environmental and social responsibility of the production processes used by firms, yet these processes often remain unobservable, even after consumption. We develop a simple model in which firms select either a green or a brown production technology before competing and signaling through prices. Firms observe each other's production choices, while consumers observe only prices. We show that, in the payoff-dominant equilibrium, prices signal when at least one firm produces green, avoiding Bertrand competition. Counterintuitively, raising consumers' environmental concerns or eliminating the information asymmetry may discourage green production and reduce welfare. |
| Keywords: | sustainable production, endogenous technology choice, price signaling, asymmetric information, price competition, label credence goods |
| JEL: | D82 D83 L13 L15 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2026-05 |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson; Anthony Lepinteur; Alan Piper |
| Abstract: | A substantial literature finds poor mental health is hump-shaped with respect to age, whilst subjective wellbeing is U-shaped. Recent cross-sectional studies indicate a change in this relationship driven by the declining mental health of the young. We contribute to this literature by re-examining the age patterns in subjective wellbeing and illbeing for individuals in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden). We do so with fifteen waves of the COME-HERE (CH) panel survey for 2020-2025 plus data from the Global Minds (GM) surveys of 2020-2026 for the same countries. We show that wellbeing rises and illbeing declines in a roughly monotonic fashion with age. This is found both with cross-section data from the CH and GM data, and from longitudinal plots of person fixed effects by age in the CH data. |
| Keywords: | subjective wellbeing; mental health; age; despair; panel data |
| JEL: | I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26200 |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel; Gan, Li; Zhang, Yike |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how intensified border enforcement affects employers’ reliance on temporary legal workers in U.S. agriculture. Using administrative data on H-2A certifications (2015-2025), we exploit the geographic concentration of a Texas state initiative that expanded immigration enforcement along the U.S.-Mexico boundary to compare border and interior counties before and after implementation. Results show a large, persistent increase in H-2A certifications in border counties relative to interior ones. Complementary analyses indicate that these increases were not accompanied by changes in agricultural activity or local economic conditions. Overall, the findings suggest increased reliance on formal guest-worker channels following reinforced border control. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404371 |
| By: | Joshua Brault; Maryam Haghighi; Jing Yang |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have revived expectations of transformative productivity gains and large-scale labour-market disruption. Yet despite rapid improvements in AI capabilities, aggregate productivity growth in advanced economies remains subdued, and widespread job displacement has not materialized. This divergence between technological promise and measured outcomes—the “AI productivity paradox”—poses important challenges for policy. This article synthesizes emerging empirical evidence on AI’s effects on labour markets and productivity. Near-term impacts are concentrated in within-occupation task restructuring and early-career hiring, while causal micro-level studies document sizable productivity gains (15–60 percent) that have yet to appear in aggregate statistics because of diffusion lags, organizational adjustment costs, and measurement limitations. We then examine the macroeconomic implications for potential output (Y*) and inflation dynamics. While AI is likely to boost potential output and exert disinflationary pressures over the long run, the effect on inflation during transition is much less certain. For monetary policy, the central challenge is distinguishing structural adjustment from cyclical weakness in real time. We argue that effective policy during the AI transition should exhibit measured flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Inflation dynamics and pressures; Monetary policy framework and transmission; Structural challenges; Digitalization and productivity |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsap:26-4 |
| By: | Mor Thiam (INSP - Institut national du service public, UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, IDP [Poitiers] - Institut de droit public [UR 14145] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers); Babacar Sédikh Diop |
| Abstract: | Les dérives actuelles des finances publiques sénégalaises constatées récemment par la Cour des comptes ont fait rejaillir des questionnements sur le cadre de la gouvernance financière publique. Une question revient singulièrement, d'autant plus qu'issue d'une promesse de campagne électorale du régime actuel, et concerne la mise en place d'une institution budgétaire indépendante sénégalaise calquée sur le modèle français du Haut conseil des finances publiques (HCFP). Si la légitimité de sa mise en place semble ne souffrir d'aucune contestation, la calquer sur le modèle français risque de condamner cette institution à avoir les mêmes effets tant l'efficacité du Haut conseil des finances publiques est contestée. Plutôt qu'un mimétisme imparfait, l'institution budgétaire indépendante sénégalaise devrait s'en inspirer tout en allant plus loin dans la définition de son cadre de gouvernance, de ses compétences d'attribution, de son pouvoir et de ses moyens. |
| Keywords: | Finances publiques – Sénégal – Institution budgétaire indépendante – Dette publique – Déficit – Gouvernance - Haut conseil des finances publiques |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05650316 |
| By: | Besley, Timothy (London School of Economics); Lambert, Peter John (London School of Economics and University of Warwick and CAGE); Michalski-Roland, Isabelle (Bank of England); Van Reenen, John (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions, showing that perceived default risk is a sufficient statistic for credit frictions. Using UK administrative data (2004-2019) matched to S&P risk measures, counterfactual estimates reveal that relaxing frictions raises output by 25% and wages by 23%. Ignoring equilibrium wage adjustments overstates output gains, while fixed-capital misallocation approaches understate them. Most gains reflect aggregate capital accumulation. Credit frictions remain above pre-crisis levels, reshape firm size dynamics, increase misallocation across firms, and dampen productivity growth over time. |
| Keywords: | productivity, default risk, credit frictions, misallocation JEL Classification: D24, E32, L11, O47 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:818 |
| By: | Maggio, Federico; Rohner, Dominic; Saia, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The variation in life-expectancy and health outcomes across countries and cohorts is striking. While medical progress and climatic factors have received much attention, there is only relatively little we know about the health impact of exposure to institutional environments over the life cycle. The present study investigates how exogenous variation in cumulative childhood exposure to democracy shapes adult health outcomes. It is found that growing up in bad regimes lastingly damages lifetime health, even when living as adult in a more favorable institutional environment. The key channels of transmission include income effects, and a series of policy recommendations are formulated. |
| Keywords: | Democracy; Health |
| JEL: | D74 N92 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19329 |
| By: | Laura Zhao; Jia Qi Xiao; Aidan Witts |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the behavioural patterns of Canadian borrowers as they progress toward mortgage delinquency. Using the full universe of TransUnion borrower credit data from 2015 to 2024, we document that mortgage holders begin increasing their credit utilization roughly two years before their first mortgage delinquency. One to two years before becoming late on their mortgage, households frequently begin missing payments on various consumer credit products, particularly credit cards. This pattern accelerates markedly in the final six months leading up to mortgage delinquency. These empirical patterns provide a consistent and robust set of early warning signals that can be used to monitor emerging household financial stress. |
| Keywords: | Financial system; Financial system regulation and oversight; Household and business credit |
| JEL: | D14 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsap:26-3 |