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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Chan, Jenny (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Sentiments, or beliefs about aggregate demand, can be self-fulfilling in models departing slightly from the complete information benchmark in the New Keynesian framework. Through its effect on aggregate variables, the policy stance determines the degree of complementarity in firms’ production (pricing) decisions and consequently, the precision of endogenous signals that firms receive. As a result, aggregate fluctuations can be driven by both fundamental and non-fundamental shocks. The distribution of non-fundamental shocks is endogenous to policy, introducing a novel trade-off between stabilising output and inflation. Both strong inflation targeting and nominal flexibilities increase the variance of non-fundamental shocks, which are shown to be suboptimal. Moreover, the Taylor principle is no longer sufficient to rule out indeterminacy. Instead, an interest rate rule that places sufficiently low weight on inflation eliminates non-fundamental volatility and thereby the output-inflation trade-off. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian; sunspots; animal spirits; rational expectations; optimal monetary policy; indeterminacy |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1106 |
| By: | NAKAJIMA, Jouchi |
| Abstract: | This study revisits the impact of US monetary policy (MP) spillovers on international bond markets through an empirical analysis of Japanese government bond yields. The analysis investigates how US MP shocks affect the yield curve and the components of expected rates and term premiums. A key insight of this study, supported by the empirical findings, is that the impacts of US MP spillovers on the term premium of domestic yields are muted during the yield curve control (YCC) policy, where the targeted long-term yield is kept within a certain small range. This novel finding implies that the policy is effective in preventing longterm yields from increasing upward pressure from US MP spillovers. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Term premium, Shadow rate, Yield curve control |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:760 |
| By: | Oliveira, Bruno Sérgio Dias |
| Abstract: | This article orbits the promise of Sociology and presents the sociology of promises — or, more precisely, the science of promises, aimed at addressing all sociological curiosities and encompassing all that is sociological. In introducing the General Social Theory of Compromises (G-STOC), a framework designed to overcome the fragmentation of traditional social theories and address their limitations in explaining social behavior, a breakthrough is presented in eight main takeaways that are simultaneously ontological, epistemological and theoretical: (1) social coercive powers derive from actual or virtual agency; (2) virtual agency derives from promises; (3) all anger and disappointment derive from broken promises; (4) promises are always in dynamic reciprocal sets called compromises; (5) compromises are heuristic devices underlying all social relationships; (6) all social phenomena involve compromises; (7) to explain is to describe relationships and (8) sociological explanation, therefore, derives from the description of compromises and their history. The above tenets begin to outline a powerful and coherent framework and their proper appreciation is bound to have a profound impact in Social Science. Avoiding convoluted syntheses of competing theories and emphasizing the social importance of the future as well as theoretical novelty and superior heuristic power, the author advocates for clear conceptual and theoretical grounds to enable a complete and integrated explanation of social phenomena. With this innovative approach, the paper invites scholars to engage critically with G-STOC and explore its potential to unify and enhance the study of the social world, offering new insights about its complexities. |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9euq3_v7 |
| By: | Oliveira, Bruno Sérgio Dias |
| Abstract: | This article orbits the promise of Sociology and presents the sociology of promises — or, more precisely, the science of promises, aimed at addressing all sociological curiosities and encompassing all that is sociological. In introducing the General Social Theory of Compromises (G-STOC), a framework designed to overcome the fragmentation of traditional social theories and address their limitations in explaining social behavior, a breakthrough is presented in eight main takeaways that are simultaneously ontological, epistemological and theoretical: (1) social coercive powers derive from actual or virtual agency; (2) virtual agency derives from promises; (3) all anger and disappointment derive from broken promises; (4) promises are always in dynamic reciprocal sets called compromises; (5) compromises are heuristic devices underlying all social relationships; (6) all social phenomena involve compromises; (7) to explain is to describe relationships and (8) sociological explanation, therefore, derives from the description of compromises and their history. The above tenets begin to outline a powerful and coherent framework and their proper appreciation is bound to have a profound impact in Social Science. Avoiding convoluted syntheses of competing theories and emphasizing the social importance of the future as well as theoretical novelty and superior heuristic power, the author advocates for clear conceptual and theoretical grounds to enable a complete and integrated explanation of social phenomena. With this innovative approach, the paper invites scholars to engage critically with G-STOC and explore its potential to unify and enhance the study of the social world, offering new insights about its complexities. |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9euq3_v3 |
| By: | Oliveira, Bruno Sérgio Dias |
| Abstract: | This article orbits the promise of Sociology and presents the sociology of promises — or, more precisely, the science of promises, aimed at addressing all sociological curiosities and encompassing all that is sociological. In introducing the General Social Theory of Compromises (G-STOC), a framework designed to overcome the fragmentation of traditional social theories and address their limitations in explaining social behavior, a breakthrough is presented in eight main takeaways that are simultaneously ontological, epistemological and theoretical: (1) social coercive powers derive from actual or virtual agency; (2) virtual agency derives from promises; (3) all anger and disappointment derive from broken promises; (4) promises are always in dynamic reciprocal sets called compromises; (5) compromises are heuristic devices underlying all social relationships; (6) all social phenomena involve compromises; (7) to explain is to describe relationships and (8) sociological explanation, therefore, derives from the description of compromises and their history. The above tenets begin to outline a powerful and coherent framework and their proper appreciation is bound to have a profound impact in Social Science. Avoiding convoluted syntheses of competing theories and emphasizing the social importance of the future as well as theoretical novelty and superior heuristic power, the author advocates for clear conceptual and theoretical grounds to enable a complete and integrated explanation of social phenomena. With this innovative approach, the paper invites scholars to engage critically with G-STOC and explore its potential to unify and enhance the study of the social world, offering new insights about its complexities. |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9euq3_v2 |
| By: | Davidson, Elle; Porter, Libby; Landau-Ward, Ani; Wensing, Ed; Kelly, Matthew; McNeill, Donald |
| Abstract: | Current approaches to engaging First Nations peoples in urban policy and planning are placing an unreasonable and unsustainable burden, especially on Traditional Custodians, new AHURI research finds. A change of relationship with Traditional Custodians and a rethinking of current engagement approaches could create a more responsible process. The research, ‘Voicing First Nations Country, culture and community in urban policy’, undertaken for AHURI by researchers from University of Sydney, RMIT University and University of NSW, examines the relationship of First Nations peoples in Australia to urban policy, and is designed to centre First Nations sovereignty, authority, knowledge, governance and agency as the starting point toward a more responsible relationship. Urban places, from large metropolitan areas to small towns in regional areas, are sites of intensive dispossession at the same time as being dense networks of community and ongoing cultural practice and connection. Nevertheless, urbanisation and the density of population settlement, private property and the miasma of legislation, policy and regulation imposed on Country hasn’t destroyed First Nations Traditional Custodians connection to ancestral lands or their cultural obligations and rights to lands and waters. Governments are asking local planners and developers to consult with First Nation Traditional Custodians with some level of engagement. This has the effect of intensifying pressure on Custodians, with short timeframes and often unrealistic expectations imposed upon First Nations communities. Urban policy planning can be a tool for healing and repair between First Nations people and the broader Australian community. Engagement can be used to create new opportunities—but current engagement approaches require rethinking and need to include building longer term relationships, long before a project requires engagement. Building and sustaining relationships and creating new processes and models must be supported with resources structures that are secure, ongoing and transcend piecemeal project-by-project funding. |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ktzsv_v1 |
| By: | François Pacquement (AFD - Agence française de développement) |
| Abstract: | The former French President of the Council (Prime minister) formulated directly or indirectly an original vision of development, woven more by a method than by a doctrine, which still makes it actual. It is based on two political moments. The first was the Bretton Woods Conference in June 1944. Very early on, convinced of the importance of the role of the international public service, after Bretton Woods, he devoted more than twelve years to responsibilities as a representative of France, with simultaneous mandates that would no longer be possible today. Pierre Mendès-France considers that development is not the business of individual states, but rather of collective processes. Second moment, the conclusion of the Geneva agreements, and shortly after the Carthage Speech where he recognizes the internal autonomy of Tunisia. Without being very committed to independence, Pierre Mendès-France knew that one cannot force a country to remain in a situation of dependence which he considers unbearable and wishes to get rid of. These two political moments constitute the basis of recommendations, which were concretely formulated through the responsibilities taken by the first circle of his entourage. Transmitted and continued by concrete practise as well as intellectual debate, these principles are still pertinent today, when the international sustainable development policy is changing in depth. This article proposes to: i/ describe how, after these two political moments, the vision of the development of Pierre Mendès-France embodied itself in the actions of the members of its entourage and ii/ show how this vision finds a renewed actuality today. |
| Abstract: | L'ancien Président du Conseil a formulé directement ou indirectement une vision originale du développement, tissée davantage par une méthode que par une doctrine, ce qui en fait la force aujourd'hui encore. Elle repose sur deux moments politiques. Le premier est la Conférence de Bretton Woods en juin 1944. Très tôt, convaincu de l'importance du rôle de la fonction publique internationale, il consacre, après Bretton Woods, plus de douze ans à des responsabilités de représentant de la France , avec des mandats simultanés qui ne seraient plus possibles aujourd'hui . Pierre Mendès-France considère que le développement n'est pas l'affaire des Etats pris individuellement, mais plutôt de processus collectifs. Second moment, la conclusion des accords de Genève, et peu après le Discours de Carthage où il reconnaît l'autonomie interne à la Tunisie. Sans être a priori engagé pour les indépendances, Pierre Mendès-France savait que l'on ne peut forcer un pays à rester dans une situation d'asservissement lorsqu'il la considère comme insupportable et de souhaiter s'en affranchir. Ces deux moments politiques se sont ensuite déclinés en thèmes plus précis, à travers les responsabilités prises par le premier cercle de son entourage, et de positions formulées par les uns et les autres, amorçant par la pratique et le débat un mouvement de transmission, par lequel s'est jouée la diffusion des principes qui sous-tendaient la vision de Pierre Mendès-France. Ceux-ci, et les thèmes plus concrets par lesquels ils se sont exprimés, se retrouvent dans une actualité récente où se joue la mutation d'une politique à l'importance croissante. Cet article se propose de : i/ décrire comment, après ces deux moments politiques, la vision du développement de Pierre Mendès-France s'est incarnée dans les actions des membres de son entourage et ii/ montrer comment cette vision trouve aujourd'hui une actualité renouvelée. |
| Date: | 2023–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04356807 |
| By: | valentine, kylie; Liu, Edgar; Veeroja, Piret; Harris, Patrick; Blunden, Hazel; Horton, Ella |
| Abstract: | Supply of more housing options for people on social housing waiting lists should be given increased priority, as longer wait times and uncertain or unsafe housing creates further mental health challenges for applicants already facing increased health needs, according to new AHURI research. The research, ‘The role of housing providers in supporting clients with complex needs’, was undertaken for AHURI by researchers from the University of New South Wales, Swinburne University of Technology and the University of Tasmania. It investigates the current challenges in providing social housing to people with complex support needs and considers potential alternative policy responses. Mental health was identified at the centre of many clients’ health needs. Longer social housing wait times and uncertain or unsafe housing was seen as increasing mental health challenges for clients. An increasingly uncertain and expensive rental market was also recognised as exacerbating the issues. At the simplest service response, connecting people to secure housing helped their mental health. Indeed, social housing providers may be the first and only point of contact that clients with unmet mental health needs have with the service system. Developing the housing service providers’ workforce could improve the effectiveness of support provided to people with multiple support needs, together with providing individual casework support for with clients to helping people navigate support networks, including ensuring that clients are designated as priority clients on social housing registries. The provision of secure, genuinely affordable housing for people with low and moderate incomes would reduce the pressure on social housing registries. Affordable housing rents need to be reviewed and set based on percentage of income formulae, rather than setting rents as a percentage of market rents. |
| Date: | 2024–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fqt8s_v1 |
| By: | Andrew L. Dabalen; Justice Tei Mensah; Nsabimana, Aimable |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the medium-term effects of policy- driven income shocks on human capital accumulation in low-income environments. Using administrative data on test scores of the universe of primary school students in Rwanda and the staggered rollout of coffee mills in the country, it shows a positive spillover effect of the coffee mills on students’ performance. Early life exposure to coffee mills is associated with a 0.09 standard deviation (4 percent) increase in student test scores. Improvements in household welfare, child health, and school attendance are likely operative channels of impact. |
| Date: | 2024–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10993 |
| By: | Christian Koch (Department of Economics, University of Vienna); Stefan P. Penczynski (School of Economics and Centre for Behavioural and Experimental Social Science, University of East Anglia); Sihong Zhang (McKinsey & Company, Inc.) |
| Abstract: | When sellers disclose verifiable information, buyers must exercise sufficient skepticism to account for potentially selective disclosure, yet previous evidence suggests they often fail to do so. We experimentally examine how buyers adapt their skepticism in response to uncertainty about the pool of available verifiable information. Contrary to previous findings on institutional manipulations in the literature, we discover that buyers adapt to our institutional change quite effectively, even—if anything—enhancing their skepticism. These results suggest that buyers’ skepticism may adjust appropriately, or not, depending on the specific context, implying that consumer naivety may be less frequent, at least when real-world features prompt scrutiny. |
| Keywords: | Disclosure, verifiable information, competition, Peltzman effect |
| JEL: | D40 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:wcbess:25-02 |
| By: | Yang, Chih-lan Winnie; Denier, Nicole; St-Denis, Xavier; Waite, Sean |
| Abstract: | Background: Quantitative research on the social, demographic, and economic outcomes of sexual minorities has long been hampered by data shortfalls, with most surveys and censuses limited by sample sizes and/or a lack of direct questions on sexual identity. The growing availability of administrative data presents an opportunity to fill some of these gaps. Objective: This article highlights the challenges and opportunities involved with using a novel administrative dataset – the Longitudinal Administrative Databank, which includes 20% of Canadian tax filers – to study sexual minority populations in Canada. We identify three sources of bias, propose strategies to adjust for this bias, and introduce a measure of “inferred sexual minority status” to improve the identification of sexual minorities in tax data. Results: Administrative tax data offers significant advantages, including a large sample size, high-quality income data for individuals and linked family members, a longitudinal design, and the ability to trace individuals’ same-/different-sex partnership histories. Our adjustment strategies mitigate some biases in identifying same-sex couples, including underreporting, misclassification, and measurement errors. The estimated proportion of individuals in same-sex marriages closely aligns with Canadian census estimates from 2006–2021, while the proportion in same-sex common-law partnerships is underestimated. Finally, our earnings gaps analyses highlight the utility of the inferred sexual minority status measure. Contribution: This article contributes to research on sexual minority data landscapes, offering new insights into the identification and measures of sexual minority populations using longitudinal administrative tax data. Our approach points to new opportunities for studying the long-term longitudinal income and family dynamics of sexual minority populations on the national level. |
| Date: | 2025–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j9skr_v1 |
| By: | Brown, Lester R. |
| Abstract: | [Contents:] Identifying Some Alternatives --- Relating U. S. Resources to the Food Problem --- Increasing the Supply of Food --- Capital Assistance --- Agricultural Technology --- Family Planning --- Alternative Energy Sources in Agriculture --- Food from Petroleum --- Fertilizing the Rumen --- Augmenting The Crops-Livestock Cycle --- Fortification of Cereal Protein --- New Protein Foods --- More Protein through Plant Breeding --- Importance of Time Horizon --- Conclusions --- Questions Outstanding. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:349677 |
| By: | González-Leonardo, Miguel |
| Abstract: | Background: Spanish migration sources are widely used by researchers and international organisations. Thus, consistent time-series are crucial. In 2021, the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) replaced the Residential Variation Statistics (EVR) and the Migration Statistics (EM) with the new Change of Residence and Migration Statistics, which included methodological changes. Objective: I evaluate differences between the EMCR and previous sources and produce weights to make the EMCR consistent with the EVR and EM. I publish the weights in an open repository (https://github.com/MiguelGonzalezLeonardo/Weights_EMCR_Spain). Methods: I analyse the percentage differences for internal and international migration between the EMCR and the previous sources at NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 levels in 2021, the only year when the three sources were published simultaneously. I then produce weights by dividing the migration counts from the EVR and EM by those from the EMCR for each spatial unit. Results: I found strong differences between the new source and the previous sources for international migration, especially for emigration, which needs to be calibrated with the weights. The EMCR and EVR register similar numbers of internal migrants. Conclusions: Methodological changes in statistical sources can lead to large differences in the measurement of a social phenomenon. This suggests the need to assess time-series consistency and produce weights for calibration. Contribution: I provide open data with weights to calibrate internal and international migration in the new Spanish migration source and produce consistent time-series with previous sources at different scales. The weights can be used by researchers from different countries and international organisations. |
| Date: | 2025–02–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cg4qy_v1 |
| By: | Yashodhan Ghorpade; Muhammad Saad Imtiaz; Theingie Han |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Myanmar has witnessed considerable economic and political instability, leading many young people, particularly the higher-skilled, to consider migrating abroad for improved prospects. This paper employs an innovative method to quantify migration intentions among high-skilled youth by analyzing the take-up of migration at different wage premia. A randomized survey experiment then evaluates how hypothetical political and economic stabilization scenarios impact these intentions. The findings show that 35 percent of the respondents would be willing to take a similar job abroad for pay equal to their current income. Randomization within the survey indicates that political stabilization would potentially reduce high-skilled workers’ desire to migrate by about 15 percent, especially among men, those living in high-conflict areas, and persons with lower absolute income but higher perceived relative income. In contrast, prospects of economic stabilization do not have a significant effect on migration intentions. In the absence of political stability and a reduction in conflict, economic stabilization is unlikely to reduce talent outflows among the young. |
| Date: | 2024–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10878 |
| By: | Yan Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a multi-sector growth model to elucidate the general equilibrium effects of generative artificial intelligence on economic growth, structural transformation, and international production specialization. Using parameters from the literature, the paper employs simulations to quantify the impacts of artificial intelligence across various scenarios. The paper introduces a crucial distinction between high-skill, highly digitalized, tradable services and low-skill, less digitalized, less-tradable services. The model’s key propositions align with empirical evidence, and the simulations yield novel and sobering predictions. Unless artificial intelligence achieves widespread cross-sector adoption and catalyzes paradigm-shifting innovations that fundamentally reshape consumer preferences, its growth benefits may be limited. Conversely, its disruptive impact on labor markets could be profound. This paper highlights the risk of “premature de-professionalization”, where artificial intelligence likely shrinks the space for countries to generate well-paid jobs in high-skill services. The analysis portends that developing countries failing to adopt artificial intelligence swiftly risk entrapment as commodity exporters, potentially facing massive youth underemployment, diminishing social mobility, and stagnating or even declining living standards. The paper also discusses artificial intelligence’s broader implications on inequality, exploring multiple channels through which it may exacerbate or mitigate economic disparities. |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10915 |
| By: | Wintemute, Garen J.; Crawford, Andrew; Tomsich, Elizabeth A.; Pear, Veronica A. |
| Abstract: | Background: In 2022, a nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, but those prevalences decreased in 2023. This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA. Methods: Participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 3 of the survey was conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; invitations to participate were sent to all respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions. Year-to-year change is based on the means of aggregated individual change scores, which have a potential range from 0 (no change) to ±2. Results: The 2024 completion rates were 88.4% (8896 respondents/10, 064 invitees) overall, 91.6% (8185 respondents/8932 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2023, and 62.8% (711 respondents/1132 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2022 but not in 2023. After weighting, 50.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. From 2023 to 2024, the prevalence of the view that violence was usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective did not change (2024: 26.2%, 95% CI 25.0%, 27.5%; 2023: 25.3%, 95% CI 24.1%, 26.5%). There were no changes from 2023 to 2024 in willingness to damage property, threaten a person, injure a person, or kill a person in an act of political violence, and no changes in expectations of firearm use in situations where respondents considered political violence justifiable. Changes on other measures were infrequent (17 of 58 comparisons in the main analysis) and small where they occurred (with 2 exceptions, change < 0.05). Conclusions: Contrary to expectation, support for and willingness to participate in political violence in this cohort showed little to no change from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA. These findings can help guide prevention efforts. |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6crkf_v1 |