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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | De Balanzo, Uma (Bocconi University); Rodríguez-Planas, Núria (Queens College, CUNY); Roff, Jennifer (Queens College, CUNY) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the sharp escalation in community-based ICE enforcement following the January 2025 presidential transition to estimate its causal effect on consumer spending. Using Synthetic DiD with cross-state variation in surge intensity, aggregate card spending fell 1.7 percentage points in high-enforcement states — an effect robust to covariate adjustment, and pre-tariff truncation. Null estimates for jail-based arrests and non-in-person commerce, where enforcement is invisible to surrounding communities, rule out a broad regional demand shock and isolate enforcement visibility as the operative mechanism. Sector-level estimates reveal two empirically distinct channels: in states with Democratic governors, aggregate spending fell 4.1 pp (p |
| Keywords: | immigration enforcement, consumer spending, synthetic difference-in-differences, ICE arrests, local labor markets |
| JEL: | J15 R11 E21 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18620 |
| By: | Petre Caraiani (Bucharest University of Economic Studies and Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Romania); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We compare four policy instruments--deficit-financed spending, tax cuts, progressive redistribution, and monetary easing--across three HANK specifications: a one-asset baseline, a two-asset model with conventional monetary policy, and an extended two-asset model with endogenous capital, Tobin's Q, and Quantitative Easing (QE) with an explicit central bank balance sheet.Introducing a second, illiquid asset produces a sharp output reversal in the fixed-capital two-asset economy: progressive redistribution moves from most expansionary to contractionary, while deficit spending becomes the dominant output tool. Endogenous capital partially rehabilitates progressive redistribution through the investment channel, but deficit spending remains the most expansionary instrument in both two-asset specifications. A decomposition of the progressive redistribution experiment into its spending and progressivity components confirms that the output reversal is driven entirely by the progressivity channel, which shifts from mildly expansionary in the one-asset economy to strongly contractionary in both two-asset economies. Under the income-based measure, progressive redistribution remains the most equalizing instrument in every specification, with progressivity alone generating pro-poor level gaps of 0.6 percent to 2.2 percent of steady-state output across all three economies. Finally, QE stimulates output relatively more than expansionary conventional monetary policy, but has limited distributional impact. |
| Keywords: | HANK models, fiscal policy, monetary policy, inequality, two-asset models, progressive taxation, quantitative easing, Tobin's Q |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E52 E62 E63 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202610 |
| By: | Hannah Slocombe; Francisco Rowe; Aliakbar Akbaritabar (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | High-skilled migration drives the global circulation of scientific talent and underpins knowledge production and innovation. Yet, internal and international migration have typically been analysed separately, leaving their combined dynamics poorly understood. Here, we present a unified global analysis of researcher migration across 1, 941 subnational regions in 211 countries and territories from 2005 to 2020. Using bibliometric data as a source of digital trace data, specifically changes in author’s affiliations, from over 33 million journal articles and reviews by more than 19 million authors, we trace annual sequences of internal and international gain, drain, and stability. We identify five distinct trajectories of researcher migration that capture the evolution of brain gain and drain at subnational scales. These trajectories reveal that patterns of gain and loss coexist within many countries, including major scientific hubs, highlighting uneven internal dynamics of attraction and decline. Additionally, we explore national-level factors associated with these trends. We find that OECD membership, research and development (R&D) expenditure, and population size are the strongest correlates of these migration trajectories. By integrating internal and international migration into a unified framework, this study enables the identification and monitoring of areas where scientific capacity is expanding or declining. This evidence can be used to guide targeted interventions and spatially balanced investment in talent to reduce geographic disparities. |
| Keywords: | Global, World, computational demography, computational social science, internal migration, international migration |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-018 |
| By: | Stefan Tanevski |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the existence of a sectoral asset price channel of monetary policy in the region of the six republics of former Yugoslavia. The study constructs sectoral indices for the entire region, building on the idea that one regional stock exchange may provide more efficiency for the listed companies in the region, while monetary policy relevance for it may be sector-specific. We employ panel vector autoregressive model to observe impulse responses of sectoral indices to innovations in monetary policy, while then disentangle the long- from the short-run relationships per index through a Pooled Mean Group estimation. Overall, we document presence of the asset price channel in the finance and telecom sectors, likely driven by the established multinational corporate networks fostering sub-market regionalization. Yet, this is not the case for the manufacturing and electricity sectors, which may imply that local stock markets are yet too fragmented and space for a more efficient regional stock market, either in the true sense of the word or, more realistically, though enhanced regional cooperation of the stock exchanges certainly exists. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.14575 |
| By: | Marco Gregnanin; Johannes De Smedt; Giorgio Gnecco; Maurizio Parton |
| Abstract: | Generating synthetic data for financial time series poses challenges, especially considering their non-stationary nature. Traditional statistical time series models normally assume weak stationarity. However, this assumption can constrain their effectiveness. Deep learning models, particularly Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), have exhibited considerable potential in emulating complex probability distributions. GANs employ a generator-discriminator framework, where the generator creates data samples, while the discriminator distinguishes real from generated data. In this research, we introduce the Sig-Graph GAN model, which integrates the time-series signature, offering a structured summary of its temporal evolution; the Long Short-Term Memory network, capturing its inherent autoregressive structure; and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), leveraging geometric patterns within the time-series data. To employ GNNs optimally, we use the visibility graph algorithm to derive a graph-based representation of the underlying time series. Numerical evaluations demonstrate that the Sig-Graph GAN model outperforms baseline methods in replicating the distribution of logarithmic returns across different stock exchanges. The integration of the graph structure with the autoregressive component effectively captures both geometric and temporal patterns embedded in time-series data. This research advances the field of GAN models for time series by introducing a model capable of leveraging both autoregressive properties and geometric structures for synthetic data generation. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.22215 |
| By: | Zheli Xiong |
| Abstract: | This paper studies conditional allocation between a growth/technology ETF basket, denoted by $G$, and a defensive income/value-oriented ETF basket, denoted by $D$. The objective is not to discover a new standalone alpha factor, but to examine whether known style exposures can be dynamically allocated using macro-market timing signals. Fama-French five-factor plus momentum attribution shows that the relative portfolio $G-D$ is a recognizable style portfolio: its market beta is 0.273, its HML beta is -0.552, its momentum beta is 0.117, and its annualized alpha is 1.95\% with a Newey-West t-statistic of only 0.81. The empirical object is therefore interpreted as a growth-versus-defensive style allocation problem rather than a new return anomaly. The allocation framework replaces discrete regime labels and if-then trading rules with a continuous smooth score. The score combines rate relief, SPY drawdown depth, high-VIX stress relief, and a growth-crowding penalty. Interaction terms are smoothed with softplus functions, the total score is mapped to G/D weights through a hyperbolic tangent function, and realized weights are smoothed with EWMA. In the main aligned comparison window from June 28, 2017 to May 15, 2026, with 10bp transaction costs, the selected smooth-score policy uses a 50\% maximum active tilt and obtains a 19.24\% CAGR, a Sharpe ratio of 1.01, and a maximum drawdown of -31.63\%. It improves over 50/50 G/D, matched TNX-only, matched core-only, SPY, and volatility-matched 100\% G benchmarks. It does not, however, exceed 100\% G or the best high-G static portfolios in raw CAGR. Walk-forward and post-2022 validations provide additional evidence of drawdown reduction and risk-adjusted allocation value. Overall, the evidence supports continuous, interpretable style timing, while also showing that high static growth exposure remains a strong benchmark. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.20636 |
| By: | Jorge Arbache; Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | Decarbonization is reconfiguring global relative prices. As clean energy, natural capital, and location-specific assets become dominant industrial inputs, the relative cost of producing low-carbon goods is increasingly determined by geography. Two systematic distortions explain why the expected reallocation of investment toward renewable-rich economies remains incomplete. First, industrial policy interventions, including subsidies, trade barriers, and certification systems, disconnect effective prices from underlying structural costs. Second, institutional failures create demand uncertainty that leaves structurally competitive projects unbankable. Together, these distortions generate static misallocation, leading to slower technological learning, higher fiscal burdens, delayed emissions reductions, and suppressed industrial opportunities in developing economies. This paper is part of broader research on powershoring and green comparative advantage, which focuses on the idea that decarbonization is a spatial and price reorganization of global production, in addition to a technological transition. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp13_26 |
| By: | Tadashi ITO |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the EU’s post-2022 export embargoes on goods with potential military applications against Russia. Using HS6-level UN Comtrade data for 2019–2024, I first estimate gravity-style specifications and event-study designs that confirm a sharp and immediate contraction in direct EU exports of embargoed goods to Russia. I then propose a product-level identification strategy that links potential transit country’s imports of an HS6 product from the EU to its exports of the same product to Russia in the post-2022 period. The results indicate that (i) EU export controls substantially reduced direct shipments, (ii) some Caspian littoral countries and major non-sanctioning suppliers—China, India, and Turkey—expanded exports of comparable goods to Russia, and (iii) there is nuanced but limited evidence of roundabout trade, whereby sanctioned goods were exported from the EU to these Russia-friendly countries and then re-exported to Russia. These findings imply that the effectiveness of export embargoes hinges not only on the scope of the listed items but also on enforcement that targets high-risk transit routes and substitute suppliers. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26036 |
| By: | Kulfas, Matías |
| Abstract: | En este estudio se analiza el papel de los gobiernos subnacionales intermedios —provincias y estados— en la formulación e implementación de políticas de desarrollo productivo en contextos federales mediante una comparación de las experiencias de la Argentina, el Brasil y México. En un contexto marcado por la revalorización de las políticas productivas, se analiza la heterogeneidad territorial y las capacidades institucionales que condicionan los procesos de transformación productiva en los territorios. Basándose en una tipología de jurisdicciones, se examinan 12 experiencias subnacionales representativas y se estudia cómo las capacidades técnicas, operativas, políticas y prospectivas inciden en el ciclo de vida de dichas políticas. Se destaca la importancia de la gobernanza multinivel, la coordinación entre niveles de gobierno y las alianzas público-privadas como factores críticos de éxito. Asimismo, se observan debilidades estructurales, brechas de información y desafíos de institucionalización que limitan la efectividad de las políticas de desarrollo productivo subnacionales y se proponen lineamientos de política orientados a fortalecer las capacidades estatales, mejorar la articulación con las estrategias nacionales y promover un desarrollo productivo más equilibrado y sostenible en América Latina. |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:89776 |
| By: | Sánchez, Marco V.; Cicowiez, Martín; Fontes, Francisco Pereira; Nakelse, Tebila |
| Abstract: | In 2014, African governments pledged to allocate 10% of public spending to agriculture in pursuance of 6% agricultural GDP growth. Most countries have not met these targets but, still, they reaffirmed their commitment to meet similarly ambitious targets in the 2025 Kampala Declaration. The CAADP Strategy and Action Plan 2026–2035, which broadens the focus from agriculture to agrifood systems, recognizes the importance of improving spending quality but lacks an evidence-based framework to enable it. We assess whether increasing spending on agriculture to reach 10% of total spending is enough to achieve agricultural growth targets in six sub-Saharan countries. We apply the policy optimization tool, PolOpT, which combines a multi-criteria decision-making technique with a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We find that the level of spending to achieve 6% agricultural GDP growth depends on countries’ specificities, including economic structure, inter-sectoral linkages and fiscal capacity. Spending quality (i.e., optimizing spending allocation) can matter more than spending quantity in some countries. Evidence-based, country- specific allocations are essential to maximize the impact of public spending on agricultural productivity and broader societal objectives. Countries should optimize agri-food expenditure composition for increasing cost-effectiveness, setting targets more realistically, and meeting their agri-food GDP target by 2035 |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:401175 |
| By: | K. Peren Arin; Ozan Eksi; Neslihan Kaya Eksi; Moo-Sung Kim |
| Abstract: | We examine the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks to European firms using high-frequency identification and granular firm-level panel data. Exploiting monetary policy surprises around FOMC announcements combined with firm-level data across eight European economies over 2004-2024, we document a sharp divergence in spillover effects. A contractionary US monetary shock significantly reduces investment rates and sales growth among UK firms, with investment declining by approximately 4% and sales growth by around 0.7-0.8% at peak, with effects persisting for two to four years. By contrast, Continental European firms, whether members of the euro area or independent-currency economies such as Sweden and Switzerland, do not exhibit a significant response. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that large and small UK firms bear broadly similar average burdens, with large firms showing more precisely estimated responses, while leverage does not systematically differentiate transmission. The UK-EU divergence is not explained by the exchange rate regime: the null result for Continental Europe extends to non-euro countries, pointing instead to the exceptional depth of UK-US financial integration, and the centrality of London in global dollar funding markets. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy spillovers, firm-level heterogeneity, international transmission channels |
| JEL: | E52 F43 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-33 |
| By: | Grynberg, Charlotte; Vinci, Francesca; De Sanctis, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The European energy market remains heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels and fragmented across Member States. This leaves the EU exposed to high and volatile energy prices, posing risks to its growth outlook and its international competitiveness. As the EU advances its energy security and climate neutrality objectives, the role of electricity and renewable energy is set to increase at the expense of fossil fuels. This paper argues that achieving a genuine European Energy Union would help to reach these goals and identifies five key policy priorities to support this process: strengthening cross-border infrastructure; mobilising innovative green finance; investing in tools to support flexibility and matching of supply and demand; improving the efficiency and harmonisation of energy taxation; and establishing a coherent industrial policy for clean tech. JEL Classification: Q40, Q41, Q48, O25, F15 |
| Keywords: | clean-tech industrial policy, EU energy market integration, European integration, industrial competitiveness, renewable energy |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2026388 |
| By: | Marija Novinc (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Viktor Viljevac (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Filip Novinc (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | Rad analizira ograničenja sustava poreza na dohodak u Republici Hrvatskoj s naglaskom na redistributivni učinak osobnog odbitka i porezni tretman paušalne djelatnosti. Pokazuje se da povećanje osobnog odbitka ne donosi korist dijelu radnika s nižim primanjima i uzdržavanom djecom zbog nepostojanja porezne osnovice, čime se ograničava stvarni dosegnuti učinak porezne potpore. Istodobno, analiza efektivnog poreznog i doprinosnog opterećenja upućuje na postojanje strukturnih razlika između nesamostalnog rada i paušalne samostalne djelatnosti, pri čemu je u pojedinim slučajevima ukupno opterećenje obrtnika paušalista osjetno manje u odnosu na opterećenje nesamostalnog rada unatoč većoj razini dohotka. Takva konstrukcija sustava otvara pitanje horizontalne i vertikalne pravednosti te dugoročne održivosti financiranja mirovinskog sustava. Rad razmatra mogućnost uvođenja povratnog poreznog kredita za uzdržavanu djecu kao ciljanog instrumenta kojim bi se porezna potpora usmjerila prema kućanstvima bez porezne osnovice. Ilustrativni scenariji ukazuju na fiskalnu izvedivost mjere uz umjerene korekcije unutar postojećeg sustava. Glavni izazov kod potencijalnog većeg oporezivanja obrtnika paušalista s relativno visokim dohotkom i niskim poreznim opterećenjem ostaje identificirati te skupine obrtnika, s obzirom na to da takvi obrtnici nisu obvezni evidentirati i prijaviti svoje izdatke. |
| Keywords: | porez na dohodak, povratni porezni kredit, porezna pravednost, osobni odbitak, obrtnici paušalisti, uzdržavani članovi obitelji |
| JEL: | H24 H21 H55 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zag:wpaper:2602 |
| By: | Hasret Ozan Sevim |
| Abstract: | On-chain lending has expanded across multiple distributed ledgers as DeFi becomes increasingly multi-chain. This environment introduces novel technical and financial mechanisms, particularly cross-blockchain communication and asset transfer protocols, yet cross-chain elements remain understudied in lending protocol risk management. To address this gap, we applied panel regression fixed effects and OLS models to empirically analyze cross-blockchain interoperability solutions, using TVL and total revenue as performance proxies from October 2022 to January 2025. Our data set covers 15 decentralized lending protocols and 53 cross-chain bridges across 9 EVM-compatible blockchains, categorized as Ethereum, alternative layer-1s, and Ethereum layer-2 networks. Results reveal that cross-chain activity impacts on protocol performance. Bridge volume emerges as a critical driver, exerts a significant effect on TVL and revenue across different categories, though the direction of this effect varies heterogeneously. Increased bridge integrations are associated with decreased TVL and protocol revenue across categories, indicating liquidity escapes from those lending ecosystems. Liquidations produce heterogeneous effects across categories. New network launches do not have as significant relationships with TVL and revenue while bridge hacks show a significant and positive relationship. High R-squared values confirm meaningful explanatory power. We further show Ethereum attracts large depositors, while layer-2s skew toward retail participation. We conclude that effective DeFi risk models should incorporate cross-chain metrics and adopt a layer-aware approach to accurately reflect the evolving multi-chain landscape. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.12508 |
| By: | Eliana La Ferrara; Cheaheon Lim; Davide Viviano |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of choice over social norms that allows for complementarities along two dimensions: \textit{technological}, analogous to complementarities between consumption goods, and social, capturing returns from conformity. Together, these determine whether two norms are complements, substitutes, or independent, as defined by how the equilibrium prevalence of one norm responds to a marginal shift in the utility of another. We estimate the model using repeated cross-sections from Sierra Leone and Nigeria, focusing on female genital cutting, polygyny, and child marriage. Social returns are significant across all specifications. For female genital cutting and child marriage, we find evidence of complementarities, especially strong in Sierra Leone. For polygyny and child marriage, we find evidence of social substitutability, particularly in Nigeria. We interpret these differences using insights from anthropology. Finally, we iterate the model forward to study policy counterfactuals, assessing the potential effects of legal reforms and social interventions. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.15405 |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Anwita Mahajan; Joseph J. Sabia |
| Abstract: | Adjustment frictions can cause the long-run effects of social insurance reforms to differ from their short-run effects. Using pre-committed extensions of event study specifications applied previously for short-run analyses, we test the hypothesis that the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) impacts on insurance coverage and employment would increase following the substantial churn generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrary to the hypothesis, the ACA’s impacts remained stable through the pandemic. Long-run effects on employment and employer coverage were modest and much smaller than initially projected. Our study illustrates how partially pre-committed designs can yield informative long-run estimates while limiting specification search. |
| JEL: | H51 H75 I13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35190 |
| By: | Larabi Jaïdi |
| Abstract: | L’impératif de sécurisation des approvisionnements en ressources minérales stratégiques est au cœur des politiques publiques de réindustrialisation nord-américaine et européenne. L’essentiel des efforts porte toutefois sur les métaux de l’électromobilité (lithium, cuivre, nickel, cobalt, manganèse, graphite) ou sur ceux indispensables à certaines hautes technologies (gallium, germanium, antimoine, etc.) et ayant fait l’objet de restrictions aux exportations de la Chine qui en est, souvent, le premier pays producteur. À l’inverse, peu d’attention semble avoir été accordée à l’étain alors que ce métal revêt, lui aussi, une importance stratégique majeure. Une étude, commandée en 2018 par Rio Tinto au Massachussets Institute of Technology (MIT), mais non publiée, place ainsi l’étain en tête des ressources minérales qui seront déterminantes pour les nouvelles technologies. Il est notamment incontournable pour les soudures des cartes électroniques et joue donc un rôle central dans l’ère numérique. Signe de l’étroitesse de son marché mais également des tensions et de l’intensité des dynamiques spéculatives qui le parcourent, ses cours sur les marchés de Londres et de Shanghai se sont envolés en 2025 et sur les premiers jours de 2026, atteignant ainsi des records historiques. Or, son offre primaire reste concentrée sur un nombre réduit de pays, avec certaines mines localisées dans des zones de conflit et/ou de nature illégale. Les enjeux associés tant à la sécurité des approvisionnements en minerai « responsable » qu’au développement du recyclage sont, en conséquence considérables dans les pays importateurs. Pourtant, si les États-Unis, le Canada ou le Royaume-Uni considèrent l’étain comme un métal stratégique, tel n’est pas le cas pour l’Union européenne. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pp_02-26 |
| By: | Alessandra Manzini (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université); Irina Martynova; Jing Yu; Xiaoyu Bi; Jordi Jacas Biendicho; Jordi Arbiol; Qing Sun; Chaoqi Zhang; Andreu Cabot |
| Abstract: | The global transition toward efficient, sustainable, and cost-effective energy storage is accelerating, driven by efforts to decarbonize key sectors. Among emerging technologies, sulfur-based conversion cathodes have garnered significant attention as promising candidates for next-generation batteries due to their exceptional theoretical energy density, low cost, and material abundance. Their successful deployment could advance critical applications, including electric mobility, renewable energy integration, and grid stabilization. Despite this potential, sulfur cathodes face persistent limitations that have prevented commercialization. Unlike reviews focusing primarily on materials innovations in idealized settings, this work provides a critical, user-focused assessment that prioritizes challenges of scalable manufacturing and operation under practical conditions. We analyze fundamental failure mechanisms under realistic parameters, including high sulfur loading, lean electrolyte, and limited lithium anode excess, that cause performance to diverge dramatically from target metrics. By synthesizing recent advancements in mechanistic understanding, host design, and interface engineering, we identify key bottlenecks hindering large-scale production. The review concludes with strategic pathways spanning materials design, device architecture, and market integration to bridge the gap between laboratory research and real-world application.The global push toward electrification and substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions is intensifying the need for sustainable technological solutions across the automotive sector and other energy-intensive industries. In this context, energy storage plays a pivotal role, serving as a critical enabler for low-carbon transportation, renewable energy integration, and grid resilience. The rapidly increasing demand for high-performance, scalable, and environmentally sustainable energy storage systems underscores the urgency of selecting appropriate battery technologies. This requires careful consideration of battery chemistries that can satisfy both short-term performance targets and long-term resource, cost, and sustainability constraints.At present, lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) dominate the energy storage market, with cell costs averaging approximately €110/kWh 1-3 . However, the pricing of LIBs remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in the cost of critical raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium, which have experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak in 2022 followed by a notable decline in 2024 4 . While recent reductions in raw material prices have temporarily eased cost pressures, this downward trend is not expected to be sustainable.Upstream supply chains are facing increasing strain, and projections indicate that future mineral demand will substantially exceed historical levels 5 . Achieving global decarbonization targets will require a sharp rise in the production of key metals such as cobalt, copper, tin, and zinc. However, expanding supply is hindered by long project lead times, declining ore grades, and increasing geopolitical and environmental constraints 5 . Establishing a stable and equitable pricing environment that ensures upstream viability while maintaining downstream affordability is therefore essential to support the continued growth and sustainability of LIB technologies. At the same time, these structural limitations highlight the urgent need to diversify battery chemistries by exploring alternative systems based on more earthabundant, geopolitically secure, and cost-effective materials to enhance the long-term resilience and scalability of energy storage infrastructure.Battery manufacturers and end users must remain agile in adapting to rapidly evolving technologies, supply chain limitations, and shifting market dynamics 1 . Battery cost continues to be a critical determinant of the competitiveness and scalability of energy storage systems. Affordable electric vehicles (EVs) offering long range, rapid charging, and robust safety, along |
| Keywords: | Batteries, Next generation, Technology, Sulfur cathodes, Critical Raw Materials CRM |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05618205 |
| By: | Stevenson, Megan T.; Fischman, Joshua B. |
| Abstract: | Something is amiss in empirical economics. Despite the advances of the credibility revolution, published estimates tend to be inflated and overconfident. We argue that this stems from a weakness in the dominant econometric framework: treating the researcher like a calculator that mechanically implements the econometric method. We use several examples to show how properties of estimators change dramatically with humans-in-the-loop. Under plausible assumptions on researcher behavior, lowpower estimators such as instrumental variables exhibit high degrees of bias, even with a first-stage F-statistic of 200. Threshold testing on the first-stage F-statistic can reduce bias, contrary to Angrist and Koles'ar (2024). And standard errors understate uncertainty, since they ignore variation due to researchers' subjective choices. Ignoring the role of humans "in the research loop" can lead to highly biased and unreliable findings. Modifying econometric practices to address the human factor is a critical frontier of the credibility revolution. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:296 |
| By: | Mazarine Wairy Dupuich (COMIN [Cerege] - Culture, cOnsommation, Médiations, Image et Numérique [Équipe du Cerege] - CEREGE [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche en gestion [UR 13564] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, CEREGE [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche en gestion [UR 13564] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, MPT [Cerege] - Management Public et Territoires [Équipe du Cerege] - CEREGE [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche en gestion [UR 13564] - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | Cet article décrit les enjeux stratégiques du thermalisme français, un secteur à une joncture critique entre tradition médicale et attrait pour le bien-être. Il examine les défis contemporains du secteur (crédibilité, concurrence, localisation, formation) puis met en lumière ses forces et opportunités (tissu local, vieillissement des populations, pleine santé). Enfin, à l'aide du triangle stratégique des services (coût, variété, personnalisation), il propose des clefs de lecture pour un positionnement stratégique. |
| Keywords: | Well-being, Diversification of offer, Strategic service triangle, Strategic, Health, Thermal cure, French thermalism, Stratégie, Triangle stratégique des services, Diversification de l'offre, Bien-être, Cure thermale, Thermalisme français, Santé |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05565890 |
| By: | Jesse Rothstein (University of California, Berkeley); Ini Umosen (Ithaka S+R); Christopher R. Walters (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We study the prospects for changes in school priorities to reduce income segregation in a context of centralized school assignment, accounting for behavioral responses to school offers. Promoting integration is a central objective for large urban school districts in the US, and reforms to school assignment priorities are a prominent means of pursuing this goal. Such efforts may be constrained by students' decisions to exit the public school system in response to less-preferred school offers. Using data on kindergarten applicants to the Oakland Unified SchoolDistrict (OUSD), we show that offers of spots at first-choice schools boost the likelihood that applicants remain in OUSD. Nevertheless, simulations show that policy reforms giving priority for low-income students at high-income schools can substantially reduce segregation with minimal impacts on retention in the district. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-38 |
| By: | Guerriero, Arthur Zito; Kapeller, Jakob; Ankel-Peters, Jörg |
| Abstract: | The social cost of carbon (SCC) isthe central concept of benefit-cost analysis in climate economics. The SCC provides guidance on the urgency of climate policy as it expresses the present value of expected future damages associated with the emission of one additional ton of CO2. This paper summarizes key normative assumptions underlying the calculation of the SCC and illustrates how these crucially affect the magnitude of final estimates. Building on a social welfare framework, we discuss the treatment of risk, time (discounting), and inequality (equity weights). Moreover, we present the normative choices related to how SCC estimates monetize non-market damage, in particular the loss of human lives. Based on a database of 515 studies with original SCC estimates (Tol, 2026), we document how the literature deals with these normative issues. In doing so, we find significant variation in the treatment of normative aspects across studies, but also across different normative dimensions. For instance, while the literature justifies the use of a time discount rate based on the assumption of diminishing marginal utility, equity aspects between countries or regions are often ignored. We conclude by stressing that while the SCC can help structuring societal deliberation about climate policy, greater clarity and transparency on the underlying normative assumptions is necessary. |
| Abstract: | Die sozialen Kosten von Kohlenstoff (SCC) sind das zentrale Konzept der Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse in der Klimawirtschaft. Die SCC geben Aufschluss über die Dringlichkeit klimapolitischer Maßnahmen, da sie den Barwert der erwarteten zukünftigen Schäden ausdrücken, die mit der Emission einer zusätzlichen Tonne CO2 verbunden sind. Dieser Beitrag fasst die wichtigsten normativen Annahmen zusammen, die der Berechnung der SCC zugrunde liegen, und veranschaulicht, wie diese die Höhe der endgültigen Schätzungen entscheidend beeinflussen. Aufbauend auf einem Rahmenkonzept der sozialen Wohlfahrt diskutieren wir die Behandlung von Risiko, Zeit (Diskontierung) und Ungleichheit (Gerechtigkeitsgewichte). Darüber hinaus stellen wir die normativen Entscheidungen vor, die damit zusammenhängen, wie SCC-Schätzungen nichtmarktbezogene Schäden, insbesondere den Verlust von Menschenleben, monetarisieren. Basierend auf einer Datenbank mit 515 Studien mit originären SCC-Schätzungen (Tol, 2026) dokumentieren wir, wie die Literatur mit diesen normativen Fragen umgeht. Dabei stellen wir erhebliche Unterschiede in der Behandlung normativer Aspekte nicht nur zwischen den Studien, sondern auch zwischen verschiedenen normativen Dimensionen fest. Während die Literatur beispielsweise die Verwendung eines zeitlichen Diskontsatzes auf der Grundlage der Annahme abnehmender Grenznutzen rechtfertigt, werden Gerechtigkeitsaspekte zwischen Ländern oder Regionen oft ignoriert. Abschließend betonen wir, dass die GSK zwar dazu beitragen kann, die gesellschaftliche Debatte über Klimapolitik zu strukturieren, jedoch mehr Klarheit und Transparenz hinsichtlich der zugrunde liegenden normativen Annahmen erforderlich ist. |
| Keywords: | climate change, social welfare, normativity, discounting, distribution, risk, value-neutrality |
| JEL: | D61 D63 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:341095 |
| By: | Hassan Afrouzi; Andres Blanco; Andres Drenik; Erik Hurst |
| Abstract: | We study how an automating technology affects career dynamics, human capital, and welfare in an economy where workers acquire skill through the tasks they perform. In a continuous-time general equilibrium model, learning-by-doing is determined jointly with the share of tasks automated, the frontier of tasks managers maintain, and the worker-to-manager career transition. Economies with high learning capacity admit pairs of stationary equilibria strictly ranked by the aggregate learning rate. Cheaper technology has opposite effects across the two: in the high-learning equilibrium, it raises welfare through the learning channel itself; in the low-learning equilibrium, it tips the economy into a human-capital trap. The planner's first-best combines a tax on automation profits with a subsidy on frontier maintenance expenditures at a common rate. |
| Keywords: | human capital; learning-by-doing; automation; AI |
| JEL: | E23 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:103253 |
| By: | Sebastian Edwards |
| Abstract: | In this paper I examine Chile’s 1972 initiative to draft a new constitution under President Salvador Allende. I analyze the political and economic circumstances that gave rise to the project and the institutional mechanisms through which the draft sought to advance a socialist economic and political program centered on state ownership of means of production and central planning. I compare the Chilean proposal with the socialist constitutions of the German Democratic Republic and Czechoslovakia. The draft, which was never submitted to a plebiscite, as Allende envisioned, subsequently disappeared and remained unavailable for nearly two decades. Remarkably, the proposal has attracted very limited scholarly attention. |
| JEL: | K10 K16 K19 N46 P37 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35200 |
| By: | Bimardhika, Elghafiky; Halim, Daniel Zefanya |
| Abstract: | Can college-educated women in rapidly developing economies balance career and family, or does compressed economic growth polarize their choices? This paper investigates how Indonesian women navigate these dual objectives across birth cohorts from the 1950s to the 1990s. It utilizes 38 years of Labor Force Survey data to examine aggregate cohort patterns and five rounds of Indonesia Family Life Survey panel data to trace individual life-cycle trajectories. The paper documents increasing polarization among younger cohorts, which either delay marriage and stay in the labor force or opt out of the labor force altogether post-marriage. The paper traces this divergence to two concurrent trends. First, more women enter time-demanding, high-skilled professions traditionally dominated by men. Second, rising conservatism among young men creates marriage market frictions, leaving educated women with stark choices: conform to conservative family expectations by leaving work, or prioritize careers while delaying or forgoing family. |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11326 |
| By: | Neil R. Ericsson; Andrew B. Martinez |
| Abstract: | In April 2025, the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford hosted the "Workshop to Celebrate Forty Years of Unit Roots and Cointegration", which commemorated the 40th anniversary of the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics’s 1986 special issue "Economic Modelling With Cointegrated Variables". The current article summarizes that workshop's panel discussion with major contributors to the literature on cointegration-David Hendry, Peter Phillips, Katarina Juselius, and Soren Johansen—and includes additional remarks by Martin Ellison and the conference's audience. The discussion highlights key roles that the panelists and the Bulletin have played in advancing the literature on cointegration. |
| Keywords: | cointegration; equilibrium correction; error correction; spurious regression; structural breaks; unit roots. |
| JEL: | C10 N1 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2026-009 |
| By: | Sonkurt Sen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the intergenerational effects of maternal exposure to terrorism on early childhood skill development. Using data from the 2018 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey linked to detailed records of terrorist incidents, I measure mothers’ exposure to conflict-related fatalities in their birth cities during early schooling years. I employ a two-stage difference-in-differences estimator that exploits spatial and cohort-level variation in exposure. The results show that maternal exposure to terrorism significantly reduces children’s socio-emotional and physical development, while having no detectable effects on literacy and numeracy. Further analysis suggests that these effects operate through reduced parental investments, lower maternal education andlowerwealth. Severalrobustnesschecks confirm the findings. |
| Keywords: | Skills Development, Terrorism, Human Capital, Early Childhood |
| JEL: | D74 H56 I25 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_751 |
| By: | Allen Bradley; Lila Newberry Bradley; Julie L. Hotchkiss; Clare Ostle; Deborah Partey |
| Abstract: | Using the National Survey of Family Growth, this paper explores reasons behind the falling birth rate in the United States. The analysis confirms that newer generations of women are less likely to have any children than generations that came before. Comparing outcomes among women at the same age, two sources for this decline are identified: (1) a dramatic decrease in the desire to have children, but only among the youngest generation in the sample (Gen Z) and (2) an increase in the medical difficulty of having children among all generations of women since the Boomer generation. Various policies addressing both desire and difficulties are discussed in the context of a goal to arrest or reverse declining birth rates. The primary contribution of this paper is consideration of increasing medical difficulty in conceiving and bearing children (impaired fecundity) alongside the current dominant theory of shifting priorities and preferences of recent cohorts of women. |
| Keywords: | birth rates; total fertility rates; infertility; impaired fecundity; microplastic; IVF; family formation; Gen Z; cohorts |
| JEL: | J13 I19 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:103252 |
| By: | Łukasz Baszczak (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Ewa Weychert (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between political outcomes and fertility behavior by linking electoral results with individual-level fertility outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing and the narrative decision-making framework (Vignoli et al., 2020; Johnson, Bilovich, & Tuckett, 2023) and the role of political polarization in fertility outcomes (Dahl et al. 2022) it considers how alignment between one’s political preferences and the actual party in power shapes fertility behaviour. Specifically, the study tests whether this alignment increases the probability of a first birth using longitudinal data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) over the period 1991–2020. We derive the month of conception from respondents’ birth histories and combine this information with measures of their political preferences (extrapolated to account for every month in the studied period). The results of a complementary log-log model indicate that the probability of conception is higher when an individual’s preferred party is in government. |
| Keywords: | fertility, uncertainty, narrative decision theory, voting behavior, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | J13 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-17 |
| By: | Peter Reinhard Hansen; Chen Tong |
| Abstract: | Score-driven models update time-varying parameters using conditional likelihood scores. This paper gives a Bayesian interpretation based on Tweedie's formula. In Gaussian signal extraction, Tweedie's formula expresses the posterior correction as a scaled score of the marginal predictive density; in natural exponential families, the corresponding identity includes a base-measure adjustment. For general conditional densities, we show that inverse-Fisher-scaled conditional scores arise as local Gaussian posterior corrections based on Fisher scoring and precision discounting. For conjugate natural exponential families, the classical discounted Bayesian recursion has an exact score-driven representation: with steady-state precision discounting and expectation-space inverse-Fisher scaling, the score-driven correction equals the Bayesian posterior mean before transition dynamics are imposed. Tweedie's variance-function index further clarifies how conditional scores normalize forecast errors. The results link empirical Bayes, approximate filtering, dynamic generalized linear models, and score-driven models while distinguishing exact Bayesian updating from local score-based approximation. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.15902 |
| By: | Claude Lefevre; Pierre Zuyderhoff |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates risk measures derived from the expected maximum deficit in a continuous-time framework and develops optimal reserve allocation strategies across multiple lines of business. We formalize the expected maximum deficit and study its associated distortion risk measures. Furthermore, we introduce implicitly bounded risk measures based on the minimal capital required to meet prescribed fixed and proportional risk tolerances, and propose approaches for optimal capital allocation using line-specific distorted expected deficits. Theoretical results established include static coherence and convexity properties, dynamic conditional extensions detailing supermartingale time consistency over a fixed horizon and the evolution of capital requirements across rolling horizons, and exact analytical optimizations of the aggregate minimum reserve. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.16448 |
| By: | Dongwoo Kim; Kyoo il Kim; Pallavi Pal |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the incomplete model of Haile and Tamer (2003) from static English auctions to sequential English auctions. Because bidders may wait for future opportunities, the static condition that bidders do not let rivals win at beatable prices need not hold. We replace it with a dynamic opportunity-cost restriction, yielding nonparametric valuation bounds without solving a dynamic equilibrium. Sharp bounds are also characterized. We propose a novel moment-condition inversion estimator that pools auctions with heterogeneous bidder counts, mitigating finite-sample instability of order statistics approaches and admitting analytical standard errors and smooth confidence intervals. Applications to Korean wholesale used-car auctions and Cars and Bids online auctions deliver informative bounds. Counterfactual analyses show that the option to wait lowers first-period revenue by 8–11% in the Korean market, that increasing effective competition from 8 to 20 serious bidders in Cars and Bids raises seller revenue by 40–65%, and that maximin reserve prices vary substantially across vehicle clusters. |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:azt:cemmap:08/26 |