|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Junming Chen |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the issue of “should monetary policy lean against rational asset price bubbles†by establishing an analytically tractable New Keynesian model with endogenous capital accumulation. Rational bubbles may exist in equilibrium because of the extra liquidity they generate for financially constrained firms when a lumpy investment opportunity arrives. Under certain conditions, bounded bubble-driven fluctuations (in output) may emerge via both supply-side and demand-side mechanisms. The monetary policy analyses of the model do not strongly favor a leaning-against-the-bubble strategy and emphasize a special overreaction risk that it may suffer from relative to its conventional counterpart. |
| Keywords: | rational asset price bubbles, monetary policy, financing constraints, New Keynesian model |
| JEL: | E12 E22 E32 E44 E52 E63 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:25/04 |
| By: | James Morley; Jieying Zhang |
| Abstract: | We examine whether inflation is driven by aggregate or sectoral output gaps. The aggregate output gap may not fully capture inflationary pressures because it can obscure sectoral shocks and heterogeneity in propagation to prices. We find that aggregating sectoral output gaps by weights estimated from real-time regressions produces a better fit of the Phillips curve than using the aggregate output gap. We confirm the sectorally-aggregated output gap based on these weights has significant explanatory power for inflation beyond the aggregate output gap and find it performs better in forecasting inflation, although the aggregate output gap retains its own distinct information. |
| Keywords: | sectoral shocks, inflation dynamics, Phillips curve, real-time analysis |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-58 |
| By: | Gabriele Guaitoli (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | What are the aggregate effects of housing supply-side policies, such as zoning reforms? In structural models, the answer involves characterising the equilibrium housing price function. I show that a housing price function should separately characterise how policies affect: 1) the response of house prices to new demand ("Elasticity Effect''); 2) the cost of satisfying existing housing demand ("Baseline Effect''). While the former can be calibrated to match estimates of price-demand elasticities such as Saiz (2010), the latter requires a separate calibration. However, popular models in Urban Economics and Economic Geography do not separately characterise and calibrate the Baseline and Elasticity Effects, introducing potential biases in the estimation of long-run policy effects. I propose a characterisation that makes such biases explicit, nests most popular characterisations, and allows to separately characterise and estimate the two effects. Calibrating the Baseline Effect to conservative empirical estimates from the literature, I find housing supply policy effects up to one order of magnitude larger than other characterisations applied to the same model. |
| Keywords: | housing supply, structural models, zoning, bias |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2516 |
| By: | Nollenberger, Jeremiah |
| Abstract: | Pro-cyclical fiscal policy is considered harmful. Nonetheless, pro-cyclicality is widespread and the cyclicality of fiscal policy isstrongly heterogenous in advanced economies. This paper investigates how differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy can be understood through the lens of Varieties of Capitalism (VoC). The VoC-perspective argues for systematic differences between coordinated market economies (CMEs) and liberal market economies (LMEs). Because of consensus-based decision making and a wage bargaining system characterized by economy-wide large but non-encompassing wage setters, fiscal policy is reasoned to be less expansionary during downturns in CMEs and thus less counter-cyclical. During upswings, however, both channels may aid stronger fiscal retrenchment, making CMEs more fiscally conservative rather than less counter-cyclical overall. Thus far, the empirical literature has only investigated the overall differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy between LMEs and CMEs, reporting contradictory results. Building and expanding on this literature, we analyze an unbalanced panel of 29 OECD countries from 1985 to 2021. We find LMEs to be consistently more counter-cyclical than CMEs, due to CMEs being less expansionary during downturns. During upswings, however, we do not identify a systematic difference between the archetypes. We furthermore find dependent market economies (DMEs) and mixed market economies (MMEs) to be more expansive during good times than the CME-group. Our results thus suggest that the capacity for counter-cyclical fiscal policy is deeply embedded in national institutional arrangements, rather than being merely a technical matter. Our findings aid in furthering our understanding of the institutional underpinnings of the export reliance in CMEs and interest rate differentials across Eurozone countries. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Comparative Political Economy, Business Cycle, Institutions, Varieties of Capitalism |
| JEL: | E62 E32 H30 P51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:330684 |
| By: | Takeki Sunakawa (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University (E-mail: takeki.sunakawa@gmail.com)) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which fiscal factors have contributed to inflation in Japan over the past four decades. Despite sustained fiscal expansion and rising debt since the 1990s, inflation remained low until recent years. Using the medium-scale DSGE model developed by Bianchi et al. (2023), we estimate the model with Japanese data and find that, in contrast to the U.S. case, unfunded fiscal shocks are not the main drivers of inflation in Japan. Instead, real demand and supply shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, have played more significant roles in shaping inflation dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Fiscal Theory of Price Level, Japan |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-14 |
| By: | Corsetti, G.; Lloyd, S.; Marin, E.; Ostry, D. |
| Abstract: | We document a rise in investors' assessment of U.S. risk relative to other G.7 economies since the late 1990s, driven by higher permanent risk but not reflected in currency returns. Using a two-country framework with trade in a rich maturity structure of bonds which earn convenience yields, alongside risky assets and currencies, we establish an equilibrium relationship between cross-border convenience yields, relative country risk and carry-trade returns. Empirically, we identify a cointegrating relationship between relative permanent risk and long-maturity convenience yields. Counterfactual experiments show rising relative permanent risk explains around one-third of declining long-maturity convenience yields over 2002-2006 and 2010-2014. |
| Keywords: | Convenience Yields, Exchange Rates, Long-Run Risk, U.S. Safety, Equity Risk Premium |
| JEL: | F30 F31 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2570 |
| By: | Jakob Kozak; Hannah Salzberger; Wolfgang Schäfers |
| Abstract: | Physical climate risks pose a threat to real estate values around the world. The rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and floods, have led to an increased vulnerability of the property sector to physical climate risks. While insurance currently serves as a safeguard against certain risks, the advent of climate change may result in elevated premiums, more rigorous underwriting standards, and potential uninsurability in high-risk regions. This study aims to examine whether physical climate risks at the property level are reflected in the equity returns and bond risk premia of U.S. REITs. Central to the analysis is the use of physical climate risk scores. First, we obtain data on REIT asset coordinates and other property information from S&P Capital IQ Pro. Second, the data on REIT portfolios is imported into climate risk tools to obtain asset-level climate risk scores for each hazard. These physical climate risk assessment tools are used in the real estate industry by institutional investors and reinsurance companies. In addition, for robustness, we aim to use publicly available data on physical climate risk from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Moreover, control variables such as bond characteristics, macroeconomic indicators, equity market factors, and REIT balance sheet data are used to capture additional drivers of REIT equity returns and bond risk premia. The methods include cross-sectional OLS regression analysis on the one hand and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, combined with the explainable AI method Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) on the other hand. The latter approach is used to decompose the variation in risk premia, thereby providing further insights into the influence of climate risks. This approach not only captures potential non-linear relationships but also serves to verify the robustness of the regression results. Furthermore, the study compares outcomes across REITs operating in different regions to assess whether geographic diversification mitigates the impact of climate risks on bond pricing. Additionally, the robustness of climate risk scores generated by different tools is evaluated to determine their reliability in financial decision-making. In conclusion, these findings contribute to the understanding of how market participants price physical climate risks and provide guidance for REIT managers in assessing the impact of climate risks on the cost of equity and public debt. |
| Keywords: | Bonds; Physical Climate Risk; real estate investment trust (REIT); Stocks |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_141 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | In 2024, the United States economy expanded 2.8%, led by consumer spending. Job creation slowed and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1% in December. Inflation eased to 2.4% in September but closed the year at 2.9%, with the core consumer price index (CPI) at 3.2%. The Federal Reserve cut rates in September, November and December, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.25%–4.50%, while trade and fiscal deficits widened. In the first half of 2025, GDP growth averaged 1.4%, with a contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter and an uptick of 3.3% in the second. From January to July, the economy added 597, 000 jobs —44% fewer than in the same period of 2024— and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Inflation remained above target, with CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 3.1% in July, while the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged. United States economic and policy developments affected Latin America and the Caribbean in the first half of 2025, as external financing costs remained relatively high amid higher yields and tariff related uncertainty. The United States economic outlook reports follow the main macroeconomic developments of the United States economy and how they may affect financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean. |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col896:82513 |
| By: | Yukihiko Funaki; Yukio Koriyama; Satoshi Nakada; Yuki Tamura |
| Abstract: | We study efficient, linear, and symmetric (ELS) values, a central family of allocation rules for cooperative games with transferable-utility (TU-games) that includes the Shapley value, the CIS value, and the ENSC value. We first show that every ELS value can be written as the Shapley value of a suitably transformed TU-game. We then introduce three types of invariance axioms for fixed player populations. The first type consists of composition axioms, and the second type is active-player consistency. Each of these two types yields a characterization of a subclass of the ELS values that contains the family of least-square values. Finally, the third type is nullified-game consistency: we define three such axioms, and each axiom yields a characterization of one of the Shapley, CIS, and ENSC values. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04996 |
| By: | Beznoska, Martin; Hentze, Tobias |
| Abstract: | Der öffentliche Investitionsbedarf in Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) ist offenkundig und erstreckt sich dabei im Grunde über sämtliche Bereiche der Infrastruktur, vor allem auch im kommunalen Bereich. In den vergangenen Jahren ist der Bedarf stetig gestiegen. Beispielsweise zeigen 74 Prozent der Kommunen in NRW einen Investitionsrückstand bei ihren Schulgebäuden an (KfW Research, 2025). Nur in der Ländergruppe Rheinland-Pfalz, Saarland und Hessen ist dieser Wert höher. Die Politik in Deutschland - nicht nur in NRW - hat eine Priorisierung von öffentlichen Investitionen weitgehend vermissen lassen. Einer Befragung zufolge fühlen sich aktuell 86 von 100 Unternehmen durch eine mangelhafte Infrastruktur beeinträchtigt. Im Jahr 2013 traf dies auf 50 von 100 Unternehmen zu (Puls, 2025). Ausgehend von einem geschätzten gesamtstaatlichen öffentlichen Investitionsbedarf von zusätzlich 60 Milliarden Euro jährlich wird klar, dass dieser Bedarf nicht ausschließlich mit laufenden Einnahmen finanzierbar ist (Dullien et al., 2024). Ursächlich hierfür sind sowohl der Bund als auch Länder und Kommunen. Im deutschen Föderalismus beschränkt sich die Verantwortung des Landes NRW nicht auf Landesaufgaben, sondern schließt die kommunale Ebene ein, für deren Finanzausstattung die Länder dem Grundgesetz nach verantwortlich sind. Der Schuldenstand des Landes NRW konnte seit der Finanzkrise deutlich reduziert werden. Öffentliche Investitionen waren bisher trotz ihres hohen wirtschaftlichen Nutzens - insbesondere für Digitalisierung und Klimaschutz - auf niedrigem Niveau. Hinzu kommt ein Mangel an Planungskapazitäten an vielen Stellen in der öffentlichen Verwaltung. Eine mangelhafte Infrastruktur mindert das Potenzialwachstum, da es zu Effizienzverlusten führt, zum Beispiel längere Arbeits- und Transportwege, und hemmend auf private Investitionen wirkt. Gleichzeitig hat sich die Lage vieler Kommunen deutlich verschlechtert. Defizite und Schuldenstände sind vielerorts gestiegen. Im Jahr 2024 lag das Defizit der Kommunen in NRW bei mehr als 6, 8 Milliarden Euro. Je Einwohner war dies das vierthöchste Defizit aller Flächenländer. Da die Kommunen den Großteil der öffentlichen Investitionen tätigen, ist ihre finanzielle Ausstattung besonders relevant. Die fiskalischen Spielräume haben sich für die Länder in den vergangenen Monaten grundlegend verändert. Zum einen ist ihnen analog zur Regelung für den Bund eine strukturelle Nettokreditaufnahme von 0, 35 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts gestattet. Für NRW bedeutet dies einen zusätzlichen Spielraum in Höhe von rund 3, 2 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr. Zum anderen werden Länder und Kommunen am Sondervermögen Infrastruktur und Klimaneutralität (SVIK) des Bundes zu 20 Prozent beteiligt. Pro Jahr kann das Land NRW im Schnitt bis 2035 über knapp 1, 8 Milliarden Euro verfügen. |
| Keywords: | Öffentliche Investition, Parlament, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:330680 |
| By: | Janet Currie; Lucy G. Hackett; Fernanda Marquez-Padilla |
| Abstract: | Many low and middle-income countries are working to expand health insurance to previously uncovered people by creating health insurance programs intended for low-income people who would otherwise lack insurance coverage. Two concerns have been raised about these programs. First, people may be “crowded out” of private facilities and into public ones, increasing public expense and possibly degrading care through crowding. Second, public insurance could encourage informality by reducing the gap in compensation between formal sector and informal sector workers. We examine these questions in the context of Mexico’s Seguro Popular (SP) using longitudinal administrative data on childbirth. We focus on women with more than one observed birth and ask how SP affects the choice of provider for those whose first observed birth was in a public hospital, a private hospital, or a separate system of hospitals serving formal sector workers. We also look at how SP affects the utilization of care and newborn health. Because SP enrollment is endogenous, we instrument it using the rollout of a second program, SMSXXI, that provided health care for young children and enrolled other family members in SP. We find that the expansion of SMSXXI increased SP coverage of pregnant women. This in turn led to a higher probability of delivering in a public hospital, especially among those who had previously delivered in a private hospital. We find little impact of SP enrollment on the utilization of care or newborn health, with the notable exception that women who previously delivered in a private hospital were more likely to start prenatal care in the first trimester when they switched to SP, indicating a greater willingness to seek preventive care when it is free. |
| JEL: | I13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34465 |
| By: | Adelaide Baronchelli; Alessandra Foresta; Roberto Ricciuti; Flavio Santi; Tadele Tefera |
| Abstract: | Drones are among the most recent evolutions in warfare, used to respond to or deter insurgent activity and to serve as substitutes for direct troop engagement. We empirically evaluate the effect of drone and air strikes as a deterrent for terrorist attacks, using Somali and Yemeni data from 2016 to 2020. We construct a novel dataset from different sources, such as the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, the Global Terrorist Database, and the New America Foundation. Given the specific features of the data (spatial heterogeneity, interaction between phenomena, and low intensity), we implement a Cox model with different specifications. Results show very limited effects of both drone and air strikes, indicating that air supremacy is not sufficient in fighting against non-state actors. |
| Keywords: | drones, terrorism, heterogeneity, Somalia, Yemen, air supremacy, non-state actors |
| JEL: | D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12242 |
| By: | Andrée De Serres; Hélène Sicotte; Cynthia Aubert |
| Abstract: | Affordability plays a crucial role in combating climate change by influencing households' housing, transportation, and consumption choices, while offering numerous benefits for their health and quality of life. Integrating affordability into urban policies promotes sustainable densification and social diversity, thereby reducing cities’ carbon footprints. However, creating and maintaining affordability over time requires adopting a governance model, management practices, and investment strategies tailored to the needs of future generations. The transformation of housing into a financial asset has exacerbated declining of affordability, urban sprawl, and evictions, fueling real estate speculation with little consideration for tenants beyond their ability to pay. To counter this trend, nonprofit organizations (NPOs) have developed alternative governance and business models that are less affected by market fluctuations, aiming to provide affordable housing while ensuring long-term quality. Supported by public and private partnerships, these NPOs help stabilize prices and combat speculation. In Montreal, for instance, the goal of achieving 20% off-market rental housing by 2050 reflects this ambition. A case study conducted between 2024 and 2025 analyzes three Quebec-based nonprofit organizations — UTILE, Interloge, and Mission Unitaînés — operating more than 3, 100 units in the affordable housing sector in 2024 as developers, owners, and managers of buildings. The objective is to compare their governance models, organizational practices, and innovative business models for developing and managing off-market housing, as well as to document their financing structures based on capital needs at both the company and project portfolio levels. These NPOs face several challenges in effectively addressing the housing crisis while ensuring housing sustainability and quality. The first challenge is building affordability over time, which is achieved with property ownership and also requires rigorous control of capital and operational expenses throughout the entire building's lifecycle to ensure affordable rents for tenants and limit their increase over time without compromising housing quality. Government subsidy programs to support tenant payment capacity are also an important solution to maintain affordability over time and cope with inflation. NPOs therefore include these programs in their business model. The second challenge lies in their reliance on subsidies, making their recognition as credible and legitimate market actors essential to securing financial sustainability. They also face increasing competition from for-profit companies. For some large NPOs, internalizing real estate development expertise and strengthening of internal organization is crucial for accelerating projects and consolidating their social acceptability. Another key issue is strengthening their legitimacy with lenders and investors, which necessitates attracting talent and innovating in financing and development practices. Given the high demand for affordable housing, some NPOs must pool their efforts by forming innovative alliances to share resources and knowledge while increasing their political influence and reducing costs. Finally, managing tenants with specific needs requires partnerships with psychosocial workers and the promotion of suitable housing located near essential services and public transport. This research maps Quebec’s affordable housing ecosystem and explores government definitions of affordability and their implications for NPOs. International case studies could provide inspiration for innovative solutions. Further research is needed to explore other innovative models and to understand how to reconcile housing affordability, quality and sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Business Model; Housing Affordability; Investment Strategies; Non-profit corporate governance |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_112 |
| By: | Jeremy Gabe; John Demas |
| Abstract: | The user cost of capital model evaluates the total return on home equity required from home ownership that makes a household financially indifferent to owning or renting its dwelling. As the non-investment costs of owning or renting property – rent, loan interest, capital maintenance, insurance, taxes, and other operating costs – are relatively non-varying, it is home equity return expectations that are central to this decision. Existing studies concentrate on the role that home equity returns play in consumer spending, personal opinions of financial condition, perpetuating discrimination, and mobility. Scholars have also used the user cost model to project a forward-looking buy vs. rent index to aid current decision making. But few studies have evaluated whether ex post financial returns of home equity validated the original decision to own. This question is important, both as a test of conventional wisdom (renting is perceived as impoverishing) and public policy, which greatly subsidizes the ownership tenure. Using a database of repeat sale transactions in the United States along with a model of alternative investment portfolios, this study evaluates the net present value of every transaction for the two alternative tenures (renting or buying). Results suggest that home owners overestimate home equity returns, possibly influenced by public subsidies. However the combination of high leverage in homeownership and the correlation of home equity returns to upside-biased systemic risks (i.e. inflation) “bails out” homeowners such that the leveraged NPV of home equity often does beat alternative investment portfolio returns. These results suggest that access to leverage is what leads to wealth through home ownership, leaving behind those without steady income or qualifying credit. It also suggests that policy aimed at reducing housing costs, increasing affordability, or decreasing housing inequality will be most effective if it distributes housing leverage more equitably. |
| Keywords: | Affordability; Home Equity; Housing Finance; Social equity |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_191 |
| By: | Bruno Fava |
| Abstract: | As predictive algorithms grow in popularity, using the same dataset to both train and test a new model has become routine across research, policy, and industry. Sample-splitting attains valid inference on model properties by using separate subsamples to estimate the model and to evaluate it. However, this approach has two drawbacks, since each task uses only part of the data, and different splits can lead to widely different estimates. Averaging across multiple splits, I develop an inference approach that uses more data for training, uses the entire sample for testing, and improves reproducibility. I address the statistical dependence from reusing observations across splits by proving a new central limit theorem for a large class of split-sample estimators under arguably mild and general conditions. Importantly, I make no restrictions on model complexity or convergence rates. I show that confidence intervals based on the normal approximation are valid for many applications, but may undercover in important cases of interest, such as comparing the performance between two models. I develop a new inference approach for such cases, explicitly accounting for the dependence across splits. Moreover, I provide a measure of reproducibility for p-values obtained from split-sample estimators. Finally, I apply my results to two important problems in development and public economics: predicting poverty and learning heterogeneous treatment effects in randomized experiments. I show that my inference approach with repeated cross-fitting achieves better power than previous alternatives, often enough to find statistical significance that would otherwise be missed. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04957 |
| By: | Palma, J. G. |
| Abstract: | Krugman identified the enigma of Latin America's underperformance as one of the greatest analytical challenges of economic theory today. Indeed, when compared with the other regions and main countries, since implementing its neo-liberal economic reforms Latin America has become a region of extremes: while its employment creation in services since 1980 ranks top in the world, its productivity growth ranks bottom; in turn, while the share of market income (i.e., before taxes and transfers) of LA's richest 1% and 10% also ranks among the top in the world, its investment as a percentage of GDP ranks bottom in the world. One narrative that helps understand this contrasting scenario is that of the classical economist David Ricardo (perhaps the greatest of the classical economists), who was the first to analyse why 'rentier-led' economies would be held back precisely by the debilitating effect of a likely 'trilogy' of high market inequality, low investment rates and meagre productivity growth. To keep exporting "more of the same" unprocessed commodities or products from "shallow" manufacturing assembly-operations is no longer a valid growthoption for Latin America ―just a recipe to continue being stuck in the middle-income trap. But domestic rigidities and markets imperfections and failures (home and abroad) are blocking the necessary "upgrade" of these exhausted productive strategies. But the conventional hegemonic wisdom still expects these countries to leap from mid-table to higher income-per capita through policies based on the same institutional setting, elite-preferences, and ideology that got them stuck in mid-table —this is not a realistic solution. Furthermore, the escape route for LA from its "neo-liberal trap", and nearly half a century of productivity stagnation, requires more than just a Keynesian/Structuralist macro, together with an ('incentive' based) industrial policy; these may well be necessary conditions for sustainable growth, but they are certainly not sufficient ones. What it needs as well is to get rentiers on board: unless one can enforce 'productive' behaviour from them, sustainable growth is not an option. The key challenge in rentier-led economies, then, comes from what I like to call a 'post-Ricardian' perspective: how to 'discipline' rentiers to be able to redirect their income towards socially desirable investment strategies. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, "easy" rents, rentier elites; "extractivism", productivity growth, inequality, "reverse" flying geese, middle-income trap, neo-liberalism, emerging Asia, David Ricardo |
| JEL: | E20 N10 O11 O47 B00 G01 Q02 |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2572 |
| By: | Aimable Nsabimana; Michael Kilumelume |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic created global job losses and altered work conditions, as government mitigation measures such as lockdowns led many firms to adopt work-from-home practices. This shift had substantial impacts on labour demand and job opportunities. Using unique administrative firm job records from South Africa spanning 2018-22, we investigate the effects of the pandemic on labour demand and job opportunities, and document three main findings. First, the pandemic induced a significant reduction in employment opportunities in South Africa, with notable variations between economic sectors. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Pandemic, Unemployment, Working conditions, South Africa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-77 |
| By: | Marek Sedivy (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of consumption expenditure and its distribution over the life-cycle. We estimate age and cohort effects relying on household-level consumption survey data, reaching several conclusions. First, we find significant differences in durable and nondurable life-cycle consumption profiles. While the former remains relatively stable until middle age and decreases afterward, the latter displays a hump-shaped profile. Second, only a few subclasses of nondurable consumption exhibit hump-shaped profiles. This group includes work-related subclasses such as clothing and personal care, food away, and transport. Third, we find that inequality in durable and nondurable consumption increases sharply around middle age. |
| Keywords: | cohorts, consumption, consumption profiles, life-cycle, inequality |
| JEL: | D14 D15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_25 |
| By: | Luo, Xubei; Rajasekaran, Arvind Balaji; Scruggs, Andrew Conner |
| Abstract: | Effective monitoring of development aid is the foundation for assessing the alignment of flows with their intended development objectives. Existing reporting systems, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, provide standardized classification of aid activities but have limitations when it comes to capturing new areas like climate change, digitalization, and other cross-cutting themes. This paper proposes a bottom-up, unsupervised machine learning framework that leverages textual descriptions of aid projects to generate highly granular activity clusters. Using the 2021 Creditor Reporting System data set of nearly 400, 000 records, the model produces 841 clusters, which are then grouped into 80 subsectors. These clusters reveal 36 emerging aid areas not tracked in the current Creditor Reporting System taxonomy, allow unpacking of “multi-sectoral” and “sector not specified” classifications, and enable estimation of flows to new themes, including World Bank Global Challenge Programs, International Development Association–20 Special Themes, and Cross-Cutting Issues. Validation against both Creditor Reporting System benchmarks and International Development Association commitment data demonstrates robustness. This approach illustrates how machine learning and the new advances in large language models can enhance the monitoring of global aid flows and inform future improvements in aid classification and reporting. It offers a useful tool that can support more responsive and evidence-based decision-making, helping to better align resources with evolving development priorities. |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11248 |
| By: | Kohaut, Susanne (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Möller, Iris (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Oberfichtner, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The report examines the underrepresentation of women in leadership positions - the so-called gender leadership gap - in private sector companies in Germany and relates it to companies' efforts to create family-friendly working conditions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Betriebspanel |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202524 |
| By: | Andreas Dibiasi; Heiner Mikosch; Samad Sarferaz; Armin Steinbach |
| Abstract: | In a novel survey, we study how German senior government officials systematically adjust fiscal policy in response to economic shocks, focusing on their fiscal responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Using randomized vignette treatments, we examine how officials update GDP and inflation expectations under fiscal and monetary policy shock scenarios and assess their preferred fiscal adjustments. Our findings show that officials predominantly respond by increasing debt and reducing spending, with tax increases playing a minor role, often combining multiple fiscal instruments. Counterfactual analysis reveals that officials’ reasoning aligns with key insights from the Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian literature. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, monetary policy, fiscal-monetary interaction, expectation formation, survey experiment |
| JEL: | D83 E62 E63 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12247 |
| By: | Juan José Víquez-Rodríguez (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica); Laura Campos-Quesada (University of Costa Rica); Isaac Zúñiga-Arias (University of Costa Rica) |
| Abstract: | The current document consolidates the fundamental theoretical definitions for constructing the Zero-Coupon Curve in colones for the Costa Rican economy. Initially, the theoretical foundations supporting the employed methodology are presented, and the modeling of the zero-coupon curve is established, specifically adjusted for Costa Rican secondary market transactions. This includes specifying the no-arbitrage conditions that must be followed during optimization to ensure that the resulting curve aligns coherently with the theory. Subsequently, the heuristic methods used in optimizing the parameters of Svensson and Nelson-Siegel curves with constraints are explained. Finally, indicators and associated curves are developed, such as Par Yield Curve, forward rates and exchange risk premium. ***Resumen: El presente documento consolida las definiciones teóricas fundamentales para la construcción de la Curva Cero Cupón en colones para la economía costarricense. Inicialmente se presentan los fundamentos teóricos que respaldan la metodología empleada y se establece la modelación de la curva cero cupón ajustada para las transacciones de mercado secundario costarricense, especificando las condiciones de no arbitraje que deben ser seguidas por la optimización para asegurar que la curva obtenida al final sea coherente con la teoría. Posteriormente, se explican los métodos heurísticos utilizados en la optimización de los parámetros de las curvas Svensson y Nelson-Siegel con restricciones. Finalmente, se desarrollan indicadores y curvas asociadas, tales como la Curva Par, las tasas forward y la prima por riesgo cambiario. |
| Keywords: | Nelson-Siegel, Svensson, Zero-Coupon Curve, Heuristic Optimization, Par Yield Curve, Forward Rates, Exchange Risk Premium, Curva Cero Cupón, Optimización Heurística, Curva Par, Tasas Plazo, Riesgo Cambiario |
| JEL: | E43 G12 C58 C61 H63 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apk:doctra:2508 |
| By: | Zerres, Christopher; Seitz, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Die Digitalisierung und die stetige Zunahme digitaler Kommunikationskanäle haben zu einer enormen Steigerung der verfügbaren Datenmengen geführt. Unternehmen stehen dadurch vor der Herausforderung, Inhalte nicht nur effizient zu produzieren, sondern diese auch zielgerichtet zu analysieren und zu optimieren. Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) eröffnet hier neue Möglichkeiten, da sie große Datenmengen in kurzer Zeit verarbeiten, Muster erkennen und Erkenntnisse generieren kann, die in klassischen Analyseprozessen nur mit erheblichem personellen und zeitlichen Aufwand zu erzielen wären. KI-gestützte Content-Analyse umfasst dabei eine Vielzahl von Verfahren, die von der Textanalyse (z. B. Sentiment-Analysen, Keyword-Extraktion, Themenmodellierung) über Bild- und Videoanalysen bis hin zu multimodalen Ansätzen (kombinierte Auswertung verschiedener Daten-formate) ausgewertet werden. Der Einsatz dieser Technologien verspricht nicht nur Effizienz-steigerungen, sondern auch eine Verbesserung der inhaltlichen Qualität und Relevanz von Marketing- und Kommunikationsmaßnahmen. Gleichzeitig sind die Implementierung und der Betrieb solcher Systeme mit Herausforderungen verbunden. Dazu zählen Fragen der Datenqualität, technische Integrationshürden, die Einhal-tung rechtlicher Vorgaben wie der DSGVO, ethische Aspekte der KI-Nutzung sowie die Akzeptanz und das Verständnis der Ergebnisse innerhalb der Organisation. Zudem variiert die Prozessreife in Unternehmen erheblich: Während einige Unternehmen bereits etablierte, automatisierte Analyseprozesse einsetzen, stehen andere noch am Anfang und experimentieren mit ersten Anwendungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund liefert das vorliegende Arbeitspapier eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme zur Nutzung von KI-gestützter Content-Analyse im deutschsprachigen Raum. Ziel ist es, Einblicke in den Verbreitungsgrad, die Einsatzschwerpunkte, den wahrgenommenen Nutzen, die vorhandenen Ressourcen sowie die bestehenden organisatorischen, technischen und regulatorischen Hürden zu geben. Die Erhebung richtet sich an Fach- und Führungskräfte aus Marketing, Kommunikation, IT und Geschäftsführung und bietet damit einen praxisnahen Einblick in den Status quo sowie die Entwicklungsperspektiven bis 2026. |
| Keywords: | KI, Künstliche Intelligenz |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ouwpmm:330687 |
| By: | Diego Comin (Dartmouth College, NBER, and CEPR (E-mail: diego.comin@dartmouth.edu)); Robert C. Johnson (University of Notre Dame, and NBER (E-mail: rjohns24@nd.edu)); Callum Jones (Federal Reserve Board (E-mail: callum.j.jones@frb.gov)) |
| Abstract: | We develop a New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up. Further, data on prices and quantities together identify whether constraints bind due to increased demand or reductions in capacity. Applying the model to interpret recent US data, we find that binding constraints in the goods sector explain half of the increase in inflation during 2021-2022. In particular, tight capacity served to amplify the impact of loose monetary policy in 2021, fueling the inflation takeoff. |
| Keywords: | inflation, supply chain, occasionally binding constraints |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E62 F63 D24 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-15 |
| By: | John Armstrong; Cristin Buescu; James Dalby; Rohan Hobbs |
| Abstract: | We use a neural network to identify the optimal solution to a family of optimal investment problems, where the parameters determining an investor's risk and consumption preferences are given as inputs to the neural network in addition to economic variables. This is used to develop a practical tool that can be used to explore how pension outcomes vary with preference parameters. We use a Black-Scholes economic model so that we may validate the accuracy of network using a classical and provably convergent numerical method developed using the duality approach. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.07045 |
| By: | Assenza, Tiziana; Huber, Stefanie; Mogilevskaja, Anna; Schmidt, Tobias |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (n ≈ 3, 900) to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption flips sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications for central bank survey design. Our experiment systematically varies elicitation framing of consumption question along three dimensions: the reference unit (individual vs. household), the time horizon (past one, 3, or 12 months), and the question type (attitudinal, planned, qualitative and quantitative recall-based). We find that the time horizon and question type significantly influence the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and durable consumption. While the average effect is weak, its sign and magnitude vary strongly with question design. Planned spending and attitudinal questions, such as whether it is a good time to buy, produce very similar negative associations, suggesting that respondents interpret the former as a proxy for future intentions. In contrast, quantitative recall-based questions on past spending yield a modestly positive link, especially for shorter horizons. These results highlight the critical role of survey design in shaping behavioral measurements, offering a novel explanation for mixed findings in the literature and guidance for both research and policy. |
| Keywords: | Expectations; household decision making; survey methodology; framing effects; measurement; inflation (economic) |
| JEL: | C83 D12 D84 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131083 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (Institute for Advanced Study, Wuhan University; World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper advances the idea of a republic of entrepreneurs - a spontaneous, rule-governed order in which many people repeatedly propose, test, and diffuse improvements-and argues that it is the main engine of modern prosperity. We braid this republic with the republic of letters and the republic of science, contending that open discourse, self-governed inquiry, and contestable enterprise reinforce one another to convert useful knowledge into useful industry. The analytical backbone in- tegrates Cantillon's functional entrepreneur, Mises's economic calculation and residual claimancy, Hayek's discovery procedure and dispersed knowl edge, Kirzner's alertness and equilibration, Mokyr's Industrial Enlightenment and "market for ideas, " McCloskey's rhetoric of bourgeois dignity, and Phelps's grassroots dynamism. Historical cases-Britain, the United States, France, Germany, and biomedicine show that breakthrough eras depended less on elite R&D and more on dense portfolios of small, decentralized experiments under general rules that kept feedback honest and im itation lawful. We contrast this republican view with outcome-targeting elite-centric growth models, derive testable implications (proposal den- sity, feedback speed, diffusion breadth), and sketch a policy stance that privileges general over discretionary rules, interoperability and open stan dards, reputation systems that make quality legible, and intellectual property that teaches while remaining finite. Reframing innovation as a civic practice explains both the magnitude and inclusiveness of the Great Enrichment and recommends "republic of entrepreneurs" as a term of art for growth and development economics. |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:798 |
| By: | Salahodjaev, Raufhon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between globalization and life satisfaction in Europe and Central Asia over the period of 2005 to 2018. Using the KOF index of globalization, we documented the non-linear (U-shaped) relationship between globalization and subjective wellbeing. Once we account for endogeneity and simultaneity with the aid of a two-step GMM estimator, the turning point is 66 points, which is approximate to the levels of globalization in Albania in 2018. We also report that the sub-dimension of globalization (political, economic and social) are also non-linearly related to life satisfaction. The results are robust to a number of tests. |
| Keywords: | globalization, life satisfaction, Europe and Central Asia |
| JEL: | F6 F60 |
| Date: | 2025–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125959 |
| By: | Purba Banerjee; Srikanth Iyer; Shashi Jain |
| Abstract: | We consider an investor who wants to hedge a path-dependent option with maturity $T$ using a static hedging portfolio using cash, the underlying, and vanilla put/call options on the same underlying with maturity $ t_1$, where $0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.00781 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (Institute for Advanced Study, Wuhan University; World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We propose a historical political-economy of the republic of entrepreneurs: a civic order where open entry, impersonal law, price signals, and lawful imitation convert dispersed conjectures into growth. Grounded in the Mises-Hayek-Kirzner view (monetary calculation, dispersed knowledge, entrepreneurial discovery) and spanning cases from antiquity to Industry 4.0, we show prosperity tracks proposal density, feedback speed, and dif fusion breadth-not elite R&D alone. Reframing Schumpeter, sustained enrichment is chiefly creative accumulation under general rules. Policy follows: protect the commons of discovery-general rules, interoperable standards, contestable markets, and IP that teaches and expires. |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:801 |
| By: | Höfelmann, Ludo (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Education and transition to work); Huijgen, Timo (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Health, skills and inequality) |
| Abstract: | Naast de groep schoolverlaters die hun opleiding succesvol hebben afgerond, is er ook een groep die uitvalt zonder een diploma te hebben gehaald. Deze groep wordt ook wel vroegtijdige schoolverlaters genoemd. In het kader van het Schoolverlatersonderzoek door het CBS uitgevoerd in samenwerking met ROA, fungeert dit onderzoek als een manier om de oorzaken, gevolgen en mogelijke beleidsmaatregelen inzichtelijk te maken, en om informatie te verkrijgen over het traject dat volgde nadat de respondenten de opleiding hadden verlaten. |
| Date: | 2025–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarof:2025005 |
| By: | Hwang, Sunjoo |
| Abstract: | By examining project-level data on real estate project financing (PF), I find that higher equity ratios are associated with lower overall risk and reduced project costs. This finding supports policy measures aimed at strengthening capital structures without unduly constraining PF activity. If regulatory lending limits are to be introduced, they should target only lowequity PF projects. Moreover, preferred shares should be recognized as regulatory-eligible equity capital, and the deferral of capital gains tax should be made permanent to encourage in-kind land contributions. It is equally important to address regulatory arbitrage involving Project Finance Vehicles (PFVs), which are often exploited to pursue large-scale developments with minimal capital. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:331223 |
| By: | Niens, Christine |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364751 |
| By: | So-Yoon Cho; Jin-Young Kim; Kayoung Ban; Hyeng Keun Koo; Hyun-Gyoon Kim |
| Abstract: | Probabilistic forecasting is crucial in multivariate financial time-series for constructing efficient portfolios that account for complex cross-sectional dependencies. In this paper, we propose Diffolio, a diffusion model designed for multivariate financial time-series forecasting and portfolio construction. Diffolio employs a denoising network with a hierarchical attention architecture, comprising both asset-level and market-level layers. Furthermore, to better reflect cross-sectional correlations, we introduce a correlation-guided regularizer informed by a stable estimate of the target correlation matrix. This structure effectively extracts salient features not only from historical returns but also from asset-specific and systematic covariates, significantly enhancing the performance of forecasts and portfolios. Experimental results on the daily excess returns of 12 industry portfolios show that Diffolio outperforms various probabilistic forecasting baselines in multivariate forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance. Moreover, in portfolio experiments, portfolios constructed from Diffolio's forecasts show consistently robust performance, thereby outperforming those from benchmarks by achieving higher Sharpe ratios for the mean-variance tangency portfolio and higher certainty equivalents for the growth-optimal portfolio. These results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed Diffolio in terms of not only statistical accuracy but also economic significance. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.07014 |
| By: | Bekkers, Eddy; Yilmaz, Ayse Nihal; Métivier, Jeanne; Tresa, Enxhi; Iunius, Lory; Xu, Ankai |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore the impact of decarbonization on international trade and development employing a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE). We develop three long run stylized climate change scenarios: (i) Global Inaction (GI); (ii) Divided World (DW); and (iii) Cooperation towards Net Zero (CNZ). The CNZ scenario encompasses comprehensive measures resulting in a significant reduction in emissions to approximately 10 billion tons by 2050, contrasting with escalating emissions under GI and stagnation under DW. The analysis shows that the share of energy trade in total trade would fall substantially in CNZ, from 11% to 3%. Furthermore, the share of energy exported falls drastically since electricity is less tradable than fossil fuels. Exports of fossil fuel dependent countries will shift from fossil fuels to emission intensive trade exposed sectors and sophisticated manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | decarbonisation policies, net zero, energy trade, diversification |
| JEL: | F13 F18 F64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:330671 |
| By: | Erhan Bayraktar; Qi Feng; Zecheng Zhang; Zhaoyu Zhang |
| Abstract: | We propose a deep neural-operator framework for a general class of probability models. Under global Lipschitz conditions on the operator over the entire Euclidean space-and for a broad class of probabilistic models-we establish a universal approximation theorem with explicit network-size bounds for the proposed architecture. The underlying stochastic processes are required only to satisfy integrability and general tail-probability conditions. We verify these assumptions for both European and American option-pricing problems within the forward-backward SDE (FBSDE) framework, which in turn covers a broad class of operators arising from parabolic PDEs, with or without free boundaries. Finally, we present a numerical example for a basket of American options, demonstrating that the learned model produces optimal stopping boundaries for new strike prices without retraining. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.07235 |
| By: | Hannah Salzberger; Tobias Just |
| Abstract: | The future of office buildings is undergoing a major reassessment as remote working is persistently as well as widely used and cost-benefit analysis reshapes its spatial dynamics. Offices are evolving into spaces for creativity and collaboration, with solitary tasks increasingly completed remotely. While productivity, cost savings and reduced distractions are key benefits, travel time remains the primary driver for working from home. Despite below-average leasing activity in Germany’s top seven cities, the office market is showing signs of stabilizing, with top rents rising. In contrast, office vacancy rates in the US continue to surge, although some cities, such as New York, are experiencing rising property prices and renewed popularity. These trends are influenced by urban structures as well as differences in residential/commercial separation and amenity mix. This research constructs a framework to identify optimal office locations that minimize aggregate travel costs, considering different work modes. First, an analytical model examines commuting costs to central business districts (CBDs) versus peripheral areas, assuming a monocentric city with a denser population near the CBD. Adding satellite offices and amenities evaluates how they affect the attractiveness of centrality. Two working arrangements are examined: team-dependent tasks and independent tasks. Simulations test different team sizes to determine the optimal office location. First, a circular city model is used. Then, in order to minimize total times for different team sizes, real office and residential data is incorporated, with travel times calculated for each office. The methodology uses OpenStreetMap and a KDTree to link residential and office addresses to network nodes, with Dijkstra’s algorithm calculating shortest paths. First, it measures 15- ans well as 30-minute accessibility on foot, by car, or by public transport. Second, it aggregates travel times for randomly selected teams (2-5 people) over 100.000 iterations, highlighting the most frequently selected optimal office locations based on minimum travel time. The initial analysis focuses on Berlin, expanding to Frankfurt before comparing it to New York and Los Angeles to explore the effects of sprawl and centrality. Overall, the results identify the most accessible office locations and explore how urban structures influence accessibility, providing insights into optimal office locations under different working modes. This study contributes to the discourse on the development of office space, focusing on commuting costs and the spatial needs of collaborative and individual work. |
| Keywords: | Office location; Real Travel Time; Team Size; Work-from-home |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_49 |
| By: | Natalie Kessler |
| Abstract: | We develop a method to measure ambiguity—uncertainty about the distribution of out-comes—in asset markets, using the volatility of the empirical distribution of unpredictable components in transaction prices. For comparison, we measure risk as the volatility of the unpredictable price component itself, following the conventional practice of using the cross-sectional standard deviation. Applying this framework to 22 million secured lending transactions in the EU, we estimate ambiguity and risk perceived by major money market lenders. Unexpected monetary policy tightening raises both measures. Higher ambiguity reduces repo market liquidity by lowering loan volumes and increasing repo rates, thereby amplifying contractionary effects. Higher risk lowers loan volumes but also repo rates, partly dampening contractionary effects. Our results suggest that ambiguity plays a distinct and quantitatively important role in monetary policy transmission that is overlooked when fo-cusing on risk alone. |
| Keywords: | Ambiguity and Risk; Repurchase Agreements; Monetary Policy Transmission; Liquidity Provision |
| JEL: | E52 G24 D43 D86 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:847 |
| By: | Monique Arkesteijn; Adinda Jongkind; Hedieh Arfa |
| Abstract: | Strategic behaviour (SB) is defined as the behaviour of stakeholders aiming to maximise their own goals and interests by influencing the outcomes in a decision-making environment. This behaviour is by nature included in the multi-stakeholder decision-making processes, as they use it to influence the process and align the outcomes with their own interests. This can result in imbalances and less-optimal outcomes of the decision-making processes. Decision Support Systems (DSS) are designed to improve decision quality. However, their effectiveness can be compromised when behavioural dynamics are not fully understood. This study aims to investigate how DSS influence SBs (including collaborative and competitive strategies, by using a specific DSS namely the Preference-Based Accommodation Strategy (PAS). PAS is a design and decision support system, which is designed to include the preferences of all the decision-makers. This research uses different qualitative methods within the pilot study at a large Dutch governmental real estate organisation. Different interviews were conducted with key decision-makers to understand the SBs in both traditional and PAS-supported environments. In addition to this, observations were conducted during the execution of the PAS decision and decision support system to analyse stakeholders’ interactions and behavioural patterns in real time. These insights were then analysed to identify how DSS (in this case PAS) influence competitive and collaborative strategies. The results of the analysis show that the current decision-making environments lack transparency and inclusivity, which contributes to competitive behaviour. However, within the PAS-supported environment, collaborative strategies were more prevalent. This is due to the fact that transparency and structured decision process within the PAS encourage collaborative decision-making. The PAS integrates open dialogue and transparent negotiation. Moreover, it creates an environment where cooperative strategies become more effective and rewarding. By addressing the gaps in the DSS field, this study provides insights into the use of specific decision-making environments, such as PAS, to mitigate SBs, more specifically competitive ones, and enhance collective decision quality. |
| Keywords: | Decision Support Systems (DSS); Multi-stakeholder decision-making; Preference-Based; Strategic behaviour |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_254 |
| By: | Maximiliano Dvorkin; Melanie LeTourneau |
| Abstract: | High-frequency data sources like Homebase offer a real-time look at trends in the U.S. labor market, which is very valuable when official data are unavailable. |
| Keywords: | labor markets; private-sector data; high-frequency data; hiring; job openings; job separations; labor turnover |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:102071 |
| By: | Luz, Gregorio; van Wee, Bert; Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Farber, Steven |
| Abstract: | Accessibility measures are widely used to assess transport equity and identify groups at risk of transport-related social exclusion (TRSE). Yet little guidance exists on how to select measures that are both theoretically robust and practically usable, and many researchers and practitioners remain unaware of the implications, biases, and consequences of their methodological choices. This paper proposes an analytical framework that consolidates dispersed arguments in the literature into a single, structured reference for evaluating accessibility measures. Developed through a comprehensive review and validated by an international expert survey, the framework comprises thirteen criteria—ten theoretical and three practical. It clarifies the ideal conditions for assessing TRSE, the trade-offs between theoretical rigor and practical feasibility, and the biases that arise from different methodological decisions. Rather than prescribing a single ideal measure, the framework makes explicit the assumptions, strengths, and limitations underlying different approaches, supporting more transparent and context-sensitive TRSE evaluations. |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9rsgu_v1 |
| By: | Subhadarsini Parida; Cida Ghosn; Christhina Candido |
| Abstract: | Social capital is a growing factor in green bond pricing (Chen et al., 2024) where community support and societal trust can influence bond premiums, making green bonds more attractive financially. The 'green premium' can be seen as a manifestation of social capital, where investors are motivated not only by financial returns but also by the social and environmental impacts of their investments (MacAskill et al., 2021). As investor sentiment is often shaped by social capital (Piñeiro-Chousa et al., 2021), communities with strong social networks may foster a more favourable view of green investments. However, there remains a notable gap in the literature regarding the direct application of social capital to the green bond market within the context of the real estate and construction sectors. There is a lack of empirical research that explicitly connects social capital to the green bond market within the real estate and construction sectors. It is important to understand the financial aspects of green building projects, suggesting that social networks can play a pivotal role in overcoming financial barriers (Agyekum et al., 2022). Therefore, this paper investigates how social capital metrics—like community trust, corporate social responsibility (CSR) perception, and stakeholder engagement—impact green bond financing success in real estate and construction. It is based on the stakeholder theory, the collaboration among stakeholders, including building owners, investors, and local communities to address a gap in understanding the non-financial factors influencing green bond viability. This study will employ semi-structured interviews from corporate C suites, and developers to understand the measurable social benefits and value proposition to clients and investors when green bonds and/or green investment have been used. Additionally, the study aims to develop a framework for integrating social capital metrics into green bond assessments, providing investors with a more holistic view of sustainability projects. This research offers significant contributions for stakeholders in the real estate and construction sectors, particularly corporate executives, developers, and investors focused on green bond funding for sustainable projects. By integrating social capital metrics into project evaluations, the study advances understanding of how corporate leaders and developers can leverage these insights by integrating social capital elements to make projects more attractive to investors by reducing risk perceptions and boosting investor sentiment. Further, by valuing social capital metrics, investors gain insights from this study into a project’s long-term stability, supporting a shift in investment focus from purely financial gains to broader environmental and social impacts. References Agyekum, K., Goodier, C., & Oppon, J. A. (2022). Key drivers for green building project financing in Ghana. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 29(8), 3023-3050. Chen, H., Meng, Y., Ning, X., & Qi, Y. (2024). The pricing of green bonds: Does social capital matter? Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 67, 105756. MacAskill, S., Roca, E., Liu, B., Stewart, R. A., & Sahin, O. (2021). Is there a green premium in the green bond market? Systematic literature review revealing premium determinants. Journal of cleaner production, 280, 124491. Piñeiro-Chousa, J., López-Cabarcos, M. Á., Caby, J., & Ševi, A. (2021). The influence of investor sentiment on the green bond market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 162, 120351. |
| Keywords: | Esg; Green Bonds; Social Capital |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_32 |
| By: | Taehyeon Koo; Zijian Guo |
| Abstract: | The synthetic control method estimates the causal effect by comparing the outcomes of a treated unit to a weighted average of control units that closely match the pre-treatment outcomes of the treated unit. This method presumes that the relationship between the potential outcomes of the treated and control units remains consistent before and after treatment. However, the estimator may become unreliable when these relationships shift or when control units are highly correlated. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distributionally Robust Synthetic Control (DRoSC) method by accommodating potential shifts in relationships and addressing high correlations among control units. The DRoSC method targets a new causal estimand defined as the optimizer of a worst-case optimization problem that checks through all possible synthetic weights that comply with the pre-treatment period. When the identification conditions for the classical synthetic control method hold, the DRoSC method targets the same causal effect as the synthetic control. When these conditions are violated, we show that this new causal estimand is a conservative proxy of the non-identifiable causal effect. We further show that the limiting distribution of the DRoSC estimator is non-normal and propose a novel inferential approach to characterize this non-normal limiting distribution. We demonstrate its finite-sample performance through numerical studies and an analysis of the economic impact of terrorism in the Basque Country. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.02632 |
| By: | Thom, Ferike; Gocht, Alexander |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364733 |
| By: | Korolija, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the concept of extractive imperialism through the lens of the experiences in the “Lithium Triangle.” Extractive imperialism represents a contemporary iteration of historical colonial practices, characterised by the exploitation of natural resources by transnational corporations in underdeveloped countries, frequently resulting in socio-environmental conflicts. This work concentrates on the Lithium Triangle in South America, comprising Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia, where extensive lithium deposits have attracted considerable foreign investment. The analysis demonstrates how the interplay between global capital and national governments frequently results in the marginalisation of local communities, thereby exacerbating social tensions and environmental degradation. The work elucidates the contrasting definitions of extractivism and neo-extractivism, underscoring the persistent exploitation and centralisation of wealth. By focusing on the socio-political dynamics and ownership structures in these regions, the paper emphasises the necessity for sustainable and equitable resource management practices. The work contributes to a broader understanding of extractive practices in the Global South, advocating for policies that prioritise the rights and livelihoods of indigenous populations and local communities over transnational corporate interests. |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ksf8v_v1 |
| By: | Sweta Byahut; Jay Mittal |
| Abstract: | Planners are increasingly concerned with the public health impacts of extreme heat. Many Indian cities and states are implementing Heat Actions Plans (HAP). Ahmedabad city in Gujarat state in western India is one of the hottest cities with a daily maximum temperature of 113oF from March-May. Following an intensely hot May in 2010 that resulted in the excess deaths of 1344 people, the city adopted a HAP in 2013, making it the first South Asian city to comprehensively address heat health threats, effectively manage heat stress, and reduce heat related mortality. Following Ahmedabad’s successes, at least a dozen Indian cities and several states have adopted HAP or are in the process of doing so. This study analyzes the first few Heat Actions Plans of Indian cities that are publicly available. The initial plan evaluation criteria are based on the ""National Guidelines for Preparation of Heat Action Plans – Prevention and Management of Heatwaves"" by the National Disaster Management Authority of India (NDMA). The plans evaluated in this study include Ahmedabad, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Vadodara, and Surat (all from Gujarat state), Chennai, Bhubaneshwar, Hazaribagh, Delhi, Gorakhpur, Jodhpur, and others. Preliminary analysis indicates that the HAPs are action oriented, focusing on preparedness at the local level for dealing with heat-related health eventualities. They emphasize reducing the negative health impact of extreme heat by health care system capacity building. This includes training local health professionals to enable them to recognize and treat heat related illnesses (heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat/sun stroke, heat rash, etc.). Plans focus on establishing early warning and alerts systems and emphasize public awareness and community outreach programs with multi-pronged communications campaigns for communicating the health risks of heat waves (hoardings/billboards, print advertisements, pamphlets, text messages, etc.). Only a few plans identify cool roofs as a cooling strategy and their widespread adoption in HAPs is lacking. India’s NDMA identifies cool roofs as a cost-effective mitigation strategy to reduce heat stress and provides guidance on their implementation. Plans range from 19 pages (Hazaribagh) to 115 pages (Bhubaneshwar). Most plans do not include information on climate change related heat impacts or the effects of urban heat island on human health and well-being. Many plans also do not include community assessment or identify vulnerable and higher risk populations population groups such as low-income and slum communities, elderly and children, laborers, and informal sector workers. In general, plans do not address social and spatial inequities. Public health departments are at the forefront of heat action planning efforts. Some plans include an inter-agency response plan and coordination in field, but opportunities exist for improving collaboration between municipal public health and planning departments, and to better connect planners and mainstream planning processes (development/master plans, neighborhood plans) to HAPs. Wider collaboration could include public institutions, private entities, NGOs, and civil society. Most plans do not include urban planning or built environment strategies, indicating opportunities for municipal planners to meaningfully incorporate low-cost strategies for urban cooling through vegetation, green infrastructure, land use, development regulations, cool roofs, and building codes. Cities lack feedback systems for assessing impact or reviewing and updating plans on a regular basis. Plan implementation also needs to be monitored to better understand their overall impact. In the next stage, this study will be expanded to include additional Indian cities and semi-structured interviews will be conducted with policy makers, public health professionals, planners, and local experts involved in planning and implementation of HAPs to better understand the processes, local capacity and constraints, and inter-agency collaborative efforts. |
| Keywords: | Climate adaptation; Heat Action Plans; Indian cities |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_31 |
| By: | Selensky, Friederike S.; Knierim, Andrea |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364758 |
| By: | Capodici, Angelo; Pirni, Alberto; Gadignani, Anna; Noci, Francesca; Giardelli, Lucia; Emdin, Michele; Giannoni, Alberto |
| Abstract: | Background: The rapid expansion of telemedicine promises enhanced healthcare access but risks eroding the relational foundations of care, particularly in remote and underserved communities. Standard bioethical frameworks, often focused on principlism, inadequately address the complex intersubjective and systemic challenges posed by digital mediation. There is a need for an ethical framework that centers human dignity and recognition within technologically mediated care. Objective: This perspective paper develops and applies a critical ethical framework for telemedicine grounded in recognition theory, aiming to evaluate how digital systems can support or undermine the recognition of persons, especially in vulnerable contexts. Methods: We synthesize Axel Honneth's recognition theory with insights from relational ethics, phenomenology of illness, and critical disability studies to propose a tripartite framework comprising three interdependent dimensions of recognition: Ascertaining (epistemic recognition of the patient as an embodied knower), Acceptance (normative inclusion respecting vulnerability and difference), and Approval (institutional legitimation of telemedicine as genuine care). We conduct a critical conceptual analysis applying this framework to the Tuscany Health Ecosystem project, a telemedicine initiative in remote Italian regions. Findings: The application of the Ascertaining-Acceptance-Approval framework reveals both the potential of hybrid, community-integrated telemedicine models (like Tuscany's) to foster recognition through nurse-mediated presence and relational continuity, and significant unresolved tensions. These include persistent epistemic compromises, ambiguities in power-sharing and patient choice, undertheorized socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and structural contradictions between relational care demands and system pressures for efficiency (e.g., the efficiency-recognition dilemma, risk of technological solutionism). Conclusion: Recognition theory transforms telemedicine from a purely technical challenge into an ethical-political project. Ensuring digital healthcare humanizes rather than diminishes care requires moving beyond simple access metrics. It demands ethical vigilance focused on hybridity, perpetual reflexivity, and meaningful community participation to ensure technology supports recognition and resists deepening health inequities. |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8w9xk_v1 |
| By: | Marek Sedivy (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Unequal consumption sharing within households is well-documented. However, there is limited evidence on the stability of within-household inequality over time. We combine a collective household model with consumption survey data spanning 24 years to study the evolution of within-household consumption inequality. Our findings reveal substantial and persistent withinhousehold consumption inequality. On average, Czech men consume nearly 60% of total adult household consumption expenditure during the considered time period. |
| Keywords: | collective household model, sharing rule, inequality, within-household inequality, consumption |
| JEL: | D13 D16 D39 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_24 |
| By: | Adrián Santonja (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), University of Potsdam & Berlin School of Economics); Laura Schmitz (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)); Judit Vall (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB) |
| Abstract: | Even though one in four women worldwide has experienced violence from an intimate partner IPV) at least once in their lifetime, some of the factors driving it remain poorly understood. This study quantifies the impact of extreme temperatures on IPV seasonality, with a particular focus on its increase during the summer months. Using granular administrative data on IPV in Spain for the period 2006-2022, we find that extreme heat leads to a 6% rise in total IPV offences, with a stronger increase for severe cases. We explore several mechanisms, including increased time exposure to the partner and potential modifications in reporting behaviour. Importantly, we also show that the effects are stronger in areas facing substantial negative labour market shocks. Our projections indicate that a rise in average temperatures would result in 85-190 additional severe IPV offences per year, emphasizing the role of climate resilience for the successful implementation of IPV prevention strategies. |
| Keywords: | Intimate partner violence, temperature, climate change, labour market shocks |
| JEL: | J12 K38 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-09 |
| By: | Kee, Hiau Looi; Xie, Enze |
| Abstract: | Nickel is essential for producing iron and steel. Endowed with the world's largest reserve, Indonesia banned nickel exports in 2014 to promote industrialization. This paper studies the impacts of the export ban on downstream steel-using industries. A three-sector model shows that, while the export ban could raise the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in exports, the entry of smaller, inefficient firms led to aggregate efficiency losses downstream. Firm-level evidence confirms higher DVAR, smaller firm size, and larger entrant shares in downstream industries post the export ban. A field mission validated these results, while noting the continued heavy reliance on imported steel. |
| Date: | 2025–11–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11249 |
| By: | Gouzoulis, Giorgos; Papadopoulou, Aggela |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Black-White pay gap in the United States from 1989 to 2024 using quarterly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve's Distributional Financial Accounts. Building on existing political economy research, which suggests that personal debt reduces workers' bargaining power by making them more risk-averse in wage negotiations - particularly when job loss threatens their ability to service debt - this study argues that racial discrimination in both personal credit markets and wage negotiations disproportionately disciplines racialized social groups. Regression analysis shows that rising household debt liabilities-to-assets ratios for Black households and a higher share of white business owners have crucially contributed to the persistent wage gap between Black and White Americans. Interestingly, interacting the two coefficients shows that a higher share of white businesses slightly mitigates the effect of debt held by Black workers on the black-white earnings gap. This potentially implies that, despite discriminatory practices, white businesses might represent a relatively more stable employment option for indebted Black workers, thereby reinforcing a vicious cycle of self-perpetuating racialized economic inequality. |
| Keywords: | Racial Pay Gap, Personal Debt, Household Financialization, United States |
| JEL: | B50 J15 J31 J70 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1686 |
| By: | Kevin Zielnicki; Guy Aridor; Aur\'elien Bibaut; Allen Tran; Winston Chou; Nathan Kallus |
| Abstract: | Personalized recommendation systems shape much of user choice online, yet their targeted nature makes separating out the value of recommendation and the underlying goods challenging. We build a discrete choice model that embeds recommendation-induced utility, low-rank heterogeneity, and flexible state dependence and apply the model to viewership data at Netflix. We exploit idiosyncratic variation introduced by the recommendation algorithm to identify and separately value these components as well as to recover model-free diversion ratios that we can use to validate our structural model. We use the model to evaluate counterfactuals that quantify the incremental engagement generated by personalized recommendations. First, we show that replacing the current recommender system with a matrix factorization or popularity-based algorithm would lead to 4% and 12% reduction in engagement, respectively, and decreased consumption diversity. Second, most of the consumption increase from recommendations comes from effective targeting, not mechanical exposure, with the largest gains for mid-popularity goods (as opposed to broadly appealing or very niche goods). |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.07280 |
| By: | Chou, Phanith; Borey Bora, Chan; Phen, Bunthoeun; Kees, Swanns |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea25:373371 |
| By: | Banerjee, Souvik; Mukhopadhyay, Sankar (University of Nevada, Reno); Jaiswal, Preeti |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey, we examine the effect of childbirth on female labour market outcomes in India. Contrary to findings from similar studies in developed countries, we do not observe any motherhood penalty in earnings, employment or work hours post-childbirth, after accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity. Interestingly, we find that the birth of a child leads to a 27.4% and 32.6% increase in women’s average earnings in urban and rural regions, respectively, relative to non-mothers. This motherhood premium seems to arise partly due to higher employment after childbirth. Further, we find that the increase in the likelihood of employment is predominantly observed among women from lower caste, Hindu religion, lower income quartiles, those with primary education, and higher order births in urban regions. In rural regions, the effect is restricted to women from the lowest income quartiles. We find that the presence of older siblings in the household increases the likelihood of women’s employment by 3.7 percentage points. These findings underscore the role of socio-economic factors in shaping the labour market outcomes of women in India. |
| Keywords: | earnings, employment, motherhood penalty, female labour market, childbirth, event study, India |
| JEL: | J13 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18246 |
| By: | Josefine Quast |
| Abstract: | We introduce a novel monthly index to measure developments in the provision of official economic statistics based on publicly disclosed observance records of subscribers to the IMF Data Standards Initiatives -- the IMF's policy framework to promote the timely publications of macroeconomic and financial data. While data is typically published in a timely manner, we document a notable decline in timely data releases since 2017. Persistent challenges in fiscal data dissemination, divergent trends in AEs and EMEs, and regional differences contribute to these dynamics. The overall decline also mirrors other global governance trends and the public disclosure of economic data tends to get less timely for some economies during turbulent periods. Strained resources devoted to statistical services can help rationalize. Through empirical applications, we demonstrate that these newly constructed indices contain predictive information for fiscal outcomes and economic downturns. Our findings demonstrate that while the Initiatives successfully promote the timely release of key macroeconomic and financial data, maintaining robust data dissemination requires sustained institutional capacity and adequate resource provision, especially during periods of distress when timely information is most crucial to support resolving macroeconomic imbalances and market disequilibria. |
| Keywords: | IMF Data Standards Initiatives; timely dissemination of key macroeconomic and financial data; data transparency; statistical capacity |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/236 |
| By: | Villalba, Roberto; Venus, Terese E.; Trappmann, Juliana; Sauer, Johannes |
| Abstract: | In the Global South, smallholder farmers are among the most financially excluded groups and appropriate indicators are essential to develop targeted support mechanisms. As financial inclusion is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon, we design a framework to link the concepts of access and usage of financial services and propose the Smallholder Financial Inclusion Index (SFI). We use Multiple Correspondence Analysis to identify 12 relevant indicators to measure financial inclusion and calculate weights. To demonstrate the applicability of the index, we use data from smallholders in Bangladesh, Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast to compare household, regional, and national financial inclusion. The results show Uganda has the highest SFI score at 35.45, followed by Bangladesh at 31.85, Tanzania at 22.49, Nigeria at 17.49, and Ivory Coast at 11.28. This index can be disaggregated to regional levels, allowing policymakers to identify vulnerable parts of the country and their specific financial needs (e.g., using bank accounts for saving and acquiring loans). For example, in Nigeria, farmers in the coastal regions report access to savings almost twice as large as in the central region. Lastly, we estimate a censored regression model using the household scores to understand factors driving household financial inclusion. We find that information channels are significantly associated with financial inclusion. The proposed index shows that a detailed understanding of financial inclusion can support policymakers in targeting excluded groups at the household and regional levels. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes024:355342 |
| By: | Zhang, Meng Le (Cardiff University); Griffith, Gareth; Holland, Sally; Elliott, Martin |
| Abstract: | Early years interventions have the potential to prevent later life inequalities. Sure Start in Northern Ireland is a place-based early years health and education programme that offers services to some of the most disadvantaged areas in the country. Families with children under four residing in these areas are eligible to access Sure Start services. This study uses a naturally occurring experiment with a Regression Discontinuity (RD) Design and administrative data to measure the impact of Sure Start on health and social services as well as child and maternal health at birth. We find no evidence of an impact on health outcomes at birth. However, we do find that Sure Start reduces the rate of child social services referrals and assessments for a child in need as well as the number of children who become a ‘child in need’. These reductions are most substantial in the first five years of life with no evidence of a rebound after school entry. We also find some evidence these effects are higher for mothers aged 21 and younger. Due to study limitations, the magnitude of these effects are imprecisely measured and we suggest further avenues for future research. |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wz2qm_v1 |
| By: | Davide Luparello |
| Abstract: | Contract workers constitute half of employment in India’s automotive industry but earn substantially less than permanent workers. Using data from the Annual Survey of Industries (2002-2019), I develop an estimator of labor supply and demand schedules to explain this wage premium. The model features nested CES production with distinct worker types, discrete choice supply functions with worker type-specific wage sensitivity and differentiated market conduct—Nash-Bertrand competition for contract workers versus plant-level union bargaining for permanent workers. I find that the wage premium stems entirely from permanent workers’ higher productivity rather than differential monopsony power or unionization advantages. |
| Keywords: | Markdowns, Markups, Productivity, India |
| JEL: | L11 L13 L62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25258 |
| By: | Colette Salemi; Sebastian Anti; Jonathan Rigberg; Karishma Silva; Johannes Hoogeveen |
| Abstract: | One in five refugees live in camps or camp-like settings, and three-quarters of encamped refugees are in sub-Saharan Africa. No reliable public data has systematically tracked camp locations, operations, or populations over time. To address this, we introduce the African Refugee Camps Dataset (ARCD), a geospatial panel dataset. We describe its creation and use ARCD to analyze major trends over 25 years. We then show two applications combining ARCD with complementary data. First, we assess spatial features of camp locations compared to stratified random sites. Camps align with logistical guidelines—flat terrain, moderate vegetation—but are often near borders, protected areas, and far from provincial capitals. Second, we estimate the effect of camp openings on forest and vegetation cover using a differences-in-differences approach. Camp establishment reduces forest cover by 1–2 percentage points within two years, largely due to land clearing for shelter, infrastructure, and roads. |
| Keywords: | deforestation, geospatial data, refugee camps, spatial analysis, sub-saharan africa |
| JEL: | C81 F22 J15 O18 O55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:442 |
| By: | Tamara Broderick; Ali Jadbabaie; Vanessa Lin; Manuel Quintero; Arnab Sarker; Sean R. Sinclair |
| Abstract: | Surety bonds are financial agreements between a contractor (principal) and obligee (project owner) to complete a project. However, most large-scale projects involve multiple contractors, creating a network and introducing the possibility of incomplete obligations to propagate and result in project failures. Typical models for risk assessment assume independent failure probabilities within each contractor. However, we take a network approach, modeling the contractor network as a directed graph where nodes represent contractors and project owners and edges represent contractual obligations with associated financial records. To understand risk propagation throughout the contractor network, we extend the celebrated Friedkin-Johnsen model and introduce a stochastic process to simulate principal failures across the network. From a theoretical perspective, we show that under natural monotonicity conditions on the contractor network, incorporating network effects leads to increases in both the average risk and the tail probability mass of the loss distribution (i.e. larger right-tail risk) for the surety organization. We further use data from a partnering insurance company to validate our findings, estimating an approximately 2% higher exposure when accounting for network effects. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05691 |
| By: | Chao Lin |
| Abstract: | The mortgage right of rural real estate (RRE) is one of the legal and important property rights of the peasants, which is prohibited to be mortgaged because of rural housing land institute in China. In reality the financial demand of the peasants is huge in rural area, which need more invest into personal consumption, agriculture upgrading. So the central government starts the pilot reform of mortgage load of rural real estate, which is beneficial to activate the land asset, increase the financing channel, promoting the strategy of rural revitalization. It is found in previous literature that the level of financial literacy of farmers significantly affects the borrowing behavior. However, it is still unclear whether the financial literacy will also significantly affect the mortgage behavior of RRE and what the influencing mechanism is. The paper applies Logit regression model and regulatory effect model to reveal the influence mechanism of farmers' financial literacy on the mortgage loan of RRE based on data from Yongfeng pilot, and finds that: (1) The financial literacy of farmers has a significant positive impact on the participation behavior of RRE mortgage. The higher of the financial literacy of farmers, the more comprehensive the understanding of RRE mortgage, the more likely they are to participate in RRE mortgage; (2) Among the constituent factors of financial literacy, financial attention has the greatest impact on the mortgage, followed by risk identification ability, but the negative effect of financial ability is not significant. (3) The degree of homestead dependence of farmers plays a moderating role. The lower the homestead dependence of farmers, the more positive influence of financial literacy on the participation behavior of mortgage. Because farmers with low homestead dependence have less ""worries"" for mortgage, are more willing to apply for RRE mortgage. (4) Heterogeneity analysis show that the financial literacy has significantly influence on peasants owning urban house, but not for peasants without urban house |
| Keywords: | Financial literacy; Mortgage load; Rural homestead; Rural real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_126 |
| By: | Osawe, Osayanmon Wellington; Adeyemo, Temitayo Adenike |
| Abstract: | Social protection policies are critical public policy measures to reduce livelihood vulnerability and enhance resilience amidst shocks. In this study, we exploit nationally representative panel data from Nigeria, the National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS) on COVID-19, to assess the heterogeneous impact of different sources of support on households’ response to lockdown restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. We employed a Correlated random effect (CRE) model with cluster-robust standard errors for binary outcomes to examine the impacts of government support, remittance and private rental income on the probability of stopping work following the lockdown restrictions across different employment sectors - agricultural, informal and formal. We find mixed results across the three support sources and employment categories. Chiefly, government support and private rental income are positively associated with the probability of stopping work in the agricultural sector. However, these effects are negative and significant if working in the informal sector. Remittance appears not to play a significant role if working in the informal and formal sectors but has a significant negative association among households working in the agricultural sector. We also found heterogeneous effects of these sources of support depending on whether the households are in rural or urban areas. Our findings have important implications for social protection policies that target building resilience amidst shocks and risks to household livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes024:355347 |
| By: | Li, Xiaofei |
| Abstract: | While on-farm experiments offer invaluable insights for precision management decisions, their scope is usually confined to the specific conditions of individual farms and years, which limits the derivation of more broad and reliable decisions. To address this limitation, aggregating data from multiple farms into a comprehensive dataset appears promising. However, the quantifiable value of this experiment network remains elusive, despite the common agreement of the existence of this value. This study conducted a simulation-based assessment of the economic value of large-scale on-farm experiments, using crop variety selection as a case study. A hypothetical region was simulated comprising one thousand corn production fields of diverse soil types and weather conditions. Each field was implemented with an on-farm variety trial. Yields for each variety were simulated based on presumed true yield responses to soil types and weather conditions that are derived from historical Mississippi variety trial data. By constructing aggregated on-farm experiment data set of farms, the individualized optimal variety for each field was recommended, and the associated yields were predicted. The production profitability for all fields was calculated based on current market prices. Results revealed a substantial improvement in farming profitability when employing the individualized optimal variety selection derived from the large-scale experiment network, compared to the scenario of only using farm’s own data. Furthermore, the simulation study also reveal that the profitability improvement diminishes when the scale of the experiment network decreases or when the number of trial varieties per field reduces. The simulation results underscored the economic benefits of broader farmer participation in on-farm experiment network and more intensive trials by each participant. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:haaewp:373440 |
| By: | Fourné, Marius |
| Abstract: | Climate policies do not operate in isolation but propagate through global production networks, affecting industries beyond national borders. This paper combines international input-output data with a granular instrumental variable approach to capture how foreign regulations transmit through upstream and downstream linkages. Distinguishing between market-based policies, non-market regulations, and technology support, the analysis shows that foreign climate policies can enhance domestic productivity, with effects shaped by industry characteristics and operating through technological adjustment along supply chains. The results underscore the importance of accounting for international spillovers when evaluating the economic impact of environmental regulation. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, environmental regulations, global value chains, green innovation, international trade, productivity |
| JEL: | F18 L16 O44 Q37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:330918 |
| By: | Moors, Annelies |
| Abstract: | In this contribution, I focus on the shifting assemblages of evidencing that become visible during the public court cases and in the verdicts of Dutch women returnees from Syria. Evidencing emerged as a particularly salient problem, since in the large majority of cases there was not even a suspicion that these women had participated in violent acts. What soon appeared was what I call, following one of the lawyers, the doctrine of the common household. Engaging in housework and childcare for men who were IS-fighters became a ground for conviction for participation in a terrorist organization and/or for involvement in preparatory acts enabling terrorism. These men were, as it were, tried in absentia. As the doctrine of the common household was a new legal invention, judges were often inconsistent in how they considered such “evidence.” What, then, was running a common household evidence of, and what counted as evidence of running a common household? How did this focus of attention emerge and develop, and what was left outside the frame? How did the courts deal with IS doctrine on housework and childcare, and with women’s own accounts as evidence? How did these positions intersect with particular turns in public opinion? These various issues also raise questions of temporality, not only in terms of how sequencing is taken to imply causality, but also in terms of how a particular historical moment matters, with judges developing, and in appeal cases often rejecting, such new interpretations. |
| Date: | 2025–10–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7r25v_v1 |
| By: | Leonardo N. Ferreira; Caio Garzeri; Diogo Guillen; Antônio Lima; Victor Monteiro |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the “prediction value” of different forms of central bank communication. Combining traditional econometrics and natural language processing, we test how much forecast-improving information can be extracted from the different layers of the Federal Reserve communication. We find that committee-wise communication (statements and minutes) and speeches by the Chair and the Vice Chair improve interest rate forecasts, suggesting that they provide additional information to understand the policy reaction function. However, individual communication beyond the Vice Chair, such as speeches by board members, other FOMC members, and Federal Reserve Bank presidents not sitting in FOMC, is not forecast improving and sometimes even worsens interest-rate forecasts. Based on our theoretical model, we interpret these results as suggesting that the Fed may have overcommunicated, providing excessive noise-inducing communication for forecasting purposes. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:635 |
| By: | Velloso, Helvia; Perrotti, Daniel E.; Sobreira, Rudá |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of green, social, sustainable, and sustainability-linked (GSSS) bonds in financing the energy transition in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It combines a descriptive assessment of sectoral bond issuance patterns from 2014 to 2024 with an econometric exercise focusing on the region’s top five issuers. The results indicate that GSSS bonds have contributed to the expansion of renewable energy capacity but have not yet produced a structural shift in the overall energy mix. These findings underscore both the opportunities and limitations of sustainable finance, highlighting the importance of complementary policies, market reforms, and effective governance to maximize its transformative potential. |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col034:82543 |