|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | António Afonso; Leonardo Zorzi |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, a growing body of research questioned the conventional inflation-targeting framework that has long guided monetary policy, arguing that the inflation targets adopted by major central banks may have been set too low. We evaluate the likelihood that advanced economies will become constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates in the future. Therefore, using end-quarter data over the period 1999Q1 to 2025Q4, we develop a counterfactual framework that quantifies how this risk changes under alternative scenarios with higher average inflation. Using a vector autoregression model and an ARDL-ECM framework, we estimate the cumulative probability of hitting the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), that is, the probability that policy rates reach the constraint at least once during the projection horizon. Our results indicate that Switzerland and Japan face the highest risk of encountering the ZLB, whereas Sweden, the Euro Area, the United States, and Canada exhibit an intermediate level of risk. By contrast, the United Kingdom and Norway appear to be the least vulnerable. These findings are broadly consistent with cross-country differences in average inflation and nominal interest rate levels. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Inflation Targeting, Monetary Policy, Zero Lower Bound, VAR, ARDL. |
| JEL: | E02 E31 E47 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04282026 |
| By: | Alexandre Soriano (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Martine Bes (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Anne-Cécile Meunier (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Céline Georget (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Phonsiri Saengram (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Sergi Navarro-Sanz (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Aurore Vernet (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Murielle Portefaix (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Thomas Mauran (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Maryline Summo (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Gaetan Droc (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Christophe Perin (UMR AGAP - Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, Cirad-BIOS - Département Systèmes Biologiques - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | Background: Functional genomics in plant biology relies on the generation, reuse, and long-term management of large numbers of plasmids produced through diverse cloning strategies. As collections expand across users and projects, laboratories face increasing challenges in organization, traceability, and preservation of construction histories. Existing cloning and sequence-design software supports plasmid design but does not address collaborative, laboratory-wide plasmid management. Results: We developed PlasmiDB, an open-source, web-based database for managing plasmid collections in multi-user research environments. PlasmiDB provides structured storage of plasmid metadata, explicit tracking of plasmid genealogy, and traceability throughout the plasmid life cycle, including inter-laboratory exchanges. The system implements project-based access control and supports collaborative workflows involving staff, students, and core facilities. Implemented using a standard LAMP architecture and deployable via Docker, PlasmiDB is designed for extensibility without modification of the core database schema. A gene module links genetic targets to associated plasmids, primers, and CRISPR reagents, improving coherence between molecular constructs and experimental objectives. In our laboratory, PlasmiDB currently manages nearly 700 plasmids and facilitates reporting through automated declaration file generation. Conclusions: PlasmiDB complements existing cloning tools by providing traceability, collaboration support, and long-term data stewardship for plant molecular biology laboratories. The source code and Docker image are publicly available. |
| Keywords: | Open-source database, Plasmid management, Plant molecular biology, Functional genomics, Plasmid traceability |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05765581 |
| By: | Wen-Ting Wang |
| Abstract: | Public blockchains can make many trading venues simultaneously visible and mechanically reachable, yet an order still has to pay to activate each additional venue: technological connectivity need not translate into economically integrated execution. Automated-market-maker (AMM) pools make this gap directly measurable, because exact pre-trade venue states, transaction-level routing costs, and realized venue use can be reconstructed jointly from public blockchain records. Using 13, 768 sampled family-transactions from 29 Ethereum and Base token-pair families and 71 sibling pools, we document a sharp compression from gross to net execution opportunity: the equal-chain lower bound on gross multi-venue gains is 34.85%, while the corresponding upper bound after measured access costs is 6.89%, as access costs eliminate 80.45% of point-identified states with positive gross gains. Realized routing shows a distinct second contrast: actual multi-pool activation occurs in only 1.203% of the opportunity population, yet among 170 eligible realized integrated routes, observed allocation captures 94.8% of aggregate feasible gain. Holding recipient orders and exact venue states fixed, replacing the Ethereum routing-cost regime with Base's lower-cost regime materially expands executable integration under both state populations. For digital-market design, the results imply that blockchain scaling, cross-venue connectivity, and displayed liquidity do not by themselves establish economically integrated execution: integration is an order-specific property that depends on transaction-level access costs. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.19013 |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Le présent document se penche sur l’évolution récente de la concurrence dans le secteur des services financiers dans la région Amérique latine et Caraïbes (ALC), en s’intéressant à la montée en puissance des fintechs, à la création d’un cadre réglementaire favorisant la concurrence et au rôle de l’open banking (système bancaire ouvert). Par fintechs, ce document entend les entreprises qui ciblent la relation entre la technologie et les services financiers, des services d’arrière-guichet jusqu’aux chaînes de blocs. Ces dix dernières années, le secteur financier dans la région ALC a connu de profonds changements, parmi lesquels l’arrivée de nouveaux intervenants, l’apparition de nouveaux produits et la reconfiguration des frontières du marché. Ces évolutions ont permis de dégager des gains de compétitivité et d’offrir aux clients des services financiers de meilleure qualité, plus accessibles, personnalisés et inclusifs, qui doivent être envisagés en les mettant en balance avec les possibles risques financiers. Les progrès de la réglementation ont joué un rôle essentiel à divers stades de ce processus : ils ont parfois préparé le terrain, parfois accueilli de nouveaux modèles et technologies découlant de la transformation numérique de la finance, et, plus récemment, ont même déclenché et favorisé des innovations de rupture. Enfin, ce document établit que l’open banking est une composante majeure de ce projet favorisant la concurrence. |
| Keywords: | concurrence, fintech, open banking |
| Date: | 2024–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:313-fr |
| By: | Alexandre Guillard (ESSEC Business School); Laurent Joblot (LISPEN - Laboratoire d’Ingénierie des Systèmes Physiques et Numériques - Arts et Métiers Sciences et Technologies); Florian Magnani (MAGELLAN - Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | L'avènement de l'industrie 5.0 invite à réexaminer fondamentalement les interactions entre les technologies numériques et la (création de) valeur humaine dans les contextes industriels. Parmi ces technologies, le jumeau numérique (JN) a attiré des investissements considérables, mais reste principalement étudié sous un angle technique. Cet article présente le jumeau numérique organisationnel (JNO) comme un objet d'étude distinct en sciences de gestion, centré sur les dynamiques humaines, managériales et organisationnelles qui façonnent l'intégration technologique. En nous appuyant sur une revue de la littérature ciblée, une méthodologie exploratoire, ainsi que sur des retours d'expérience issus du monde industriel, nous soutenons que le JNO ne déploie pleinement sa valeur que lorsqu'il est conçu comme un instrument de gestion du changement centré sur l'humain, intégrant explicitement les dimensions de l'attention et du respect des personnes. L'article ouvre les grandes lignes d'un programme de recherche-action visant à documenter empiriquement les conditions dans lesquelles les transitions industrielles numériques peuvent être rendues socialement acceptables, productives et durables. La question centrale qui guide ce travail est la suivante : dans quelles conditions organisationnelles, managériales et pédagogiques le jumeau numérique peut-il constituer un véritable outil de gestion du changement centré sur l'humain, intégrant l'attention et le respect des personnes, plutôt qu'une simple fin technologique en soi ? |
| Keywords: | Jumeau Numérique Organisationnel, Conduite du changement, Industrie 5.0, Lean, Care, Usine-école, Recherche-action |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05753213 |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | La concurrence peut contribuer à maîtriser les coûts et à améliorer l’efficience dans le secteur de la santé. Cette note examine les interactions entre réglementation et concurrence sur les marchés de la santé et identifie des domaines où les autorités de la concurrence peuvent plaider pour une réglementation proconcurrentielle. Elle présente un cadre permettant d’identifier et d’examiner les barrières réglementaires à la concurrence en s’appuyant sur des données empiriques et l’expérience acquise par les autorités de la concurrence à cet égard. L’analyse met en évidence que certaines règles peuvent restreindre l’entrée sur les marchés et limiter les capacités, notamment les restrictions à l’entrée fondées sur l’évaluation des besoins ou l’implication des acteurs en place aux décisions d’octroi d’agréments. La réglementation professionnelle suscite des préoccupations similaires, dans la mesure où des définitions restrictives des compétences et la faible portabilité des agréments peuvent exacerber des pénuries de personnel et réduire l’accès à la profession. Le développement des services numériques peut également être ralenti par des barrières réglementaires, notamment en raison du manque d’interopérabilité entre les systèmes de dossiers électroniques. Enfin, une réglementation proconcurrentielle peut être un appui pour les patients et les organismes payeurs en leur fournissant des informations exploitables. |
| Keywords: | barrières réglementaires à la concurrence, concurrence, hôpitaux, licences professionnelles, Plaidoyer, réformes proconcurrentielles, santé |
| JEL: | I11 I18 L11 L4 L5 L8 L44 |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:334-fr |
| By: | Tanaka, Mari (University of Tokyo); Okudaira, Hiroko (Doshisha University); Sakka, Mariko (University of Tsukuba); Yamaguchi, Shintaro (University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | We test whether employers can shift household allocation by targeting men as fathers. Among 1, 225 male employees in four Japanese organizations, we randomized a two-hour work-life balance training and an information treatment correcting misperceptions of colleagues' support. Training increased fathers' weekend childcare by about one hour per day in young-child households and raised spouses' reported paid work; spouses' housework also fell. Training strengthened beliefs that paternity leave benefits workplace functioning but not leave intentions. Information modestly shifted perceived support but affected neither intentions nor information-seeking. Employer training can affect household allocation without changing formal rights or work arrangements. |
| Keywords: | workplace intervention, paternity leave, household time allocation, second-order beliefs, field experiment |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18913 |
| By: | Zeno Enders; Sophia Oberbrinkmann |
| Abstract: | Many central banks, such as the ECB, explicitly tie monetary policy decisions to medium-term inflation forecasts. Standard New Keynesian models, however, typically abstract from this feature. This paper studies equilibrium determinacy in a New Keynesian model in which monetary policy targets inflation at a forecast horizon larger than one. When policy reacts to sufficiently distant inflation expectations, it may fail to pin down a unique equilibrium. In fact, stronger reactions to expected inflation can make indeterminacy more likely. Whether monetary policy can achieve determinacy at a given forecast horizon depends not only on satisfying the Taylor principle, which provides a lower bound on the inflation coefficient, but also on an upper bound. This upper bound becomes more restrictive as the forecast horizon increases, until determinacy becomes impossible, and depends critically on the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. A sufficiently flat Phillips curve preserves a non-empty determinacy region even at longer forecast horizons. Introducing fiscal policy can restore determinacy across all forecast-horizon targets by ensuring a unique stationary equilibrium. However, this holds only if fiscal policy does not actively stabilize government debt, which implies that inflation forecast targeting at medium horizons puts monetary policy in a passive position and invites fiscal dominance. |
| Keywords: | inflation forecast targeting, fiscal policy, monetary–fiscal interaction, determinacy, New Keynesian models, forward-looking Taylor rules |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12991 |
| By: | José Martínez |
| Abstract: | What explains differences in the composition of households' portfolios? Recent literature has focused on the effects of heterogeneous portfolios. This paper provides an explanation of differences in households' savings patterns that is consistent with micro-level data for the United States. I focus on the effect of heterogeneity in earnings risk to explain differences in the type of deposits. First, I find micro-evidence that relates differences in the maturity structure of households savings with earnings risk, where high idiosyncratic risk results in high demand for short-term liquid deposits, while low earnings risk allows agents to allocate a larger fraction of their assets in long-term illiquid deposits. Second, I present a continuous-time macroeconomic model with incomplete markets, heterogeneous agents, and two assets, where agents have heterogeneous demand for liquidity, driven by differences in earnings risk. The model reproduces differences in the composition of optimal portfolios, consistent with the empirical findings. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics;Heterogeneous Agents;Optimal Portfolios;Household Finance |
| JEL: | E00 E21 G11 G50 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2026-05 |
| By: | David Ching-Vindas (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica); Catalina Sandoval-Alvarado (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica); Carlos Segura-Rodriguez (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the effect of extreme hydrometeorological events on inflation in Costa Rica (2010–2025). We use precipitation data from “Climate hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations"(CHIRPS) to define extreme wet and dry shocks based on the historical 95th and 5th percentiles, respectively. We use the local projections method applied to an augmented Phillips curve to estimate impulse response functions from these shocks over a 12-month horizon. The results reveal significant asymmetric effects: wet events cause an immediate but transitory increase in prices, particularly in agricultural sub-indices, followed by a downward correction, whereas dry events generate a gradual increase that becomes statistically significant with a longer lag. Furthermore, we identify spatial heterogeneity by clustering municipalities according to their climate anomaly patterns. Finally, we find that the occurrence of consecutive extreme events amplifies the shock’s effect and its persistence, and quantile regressions confirm pronounced tail inflationary risks at the 90th percentile of the conditional distribution. These findings highlight the need to employ disaggregated climate data and explicitly incorporate their effects into macroeconomic forecasting models. ***Resumen: Este trabajo analiza los efectos de los eventos hidrometeorológicos extremos sobre la inflación en Costa Rica (2010–2025). Se utilizan datos de precipitación del sistema “Climate Hazards Center Infra Red Precipitation with Stations"(CHIRPS) para definir choques extremos lluviosos y secos a partir de los percentiles históricos 95 y 5, respectivamente. Mediante el método de proyecciones locales aplicado a una curva de Phillips ampliada, se estiman funciones impulso respuesta de estos choques para un horizonte de 12 meses. Los resultados revelan efectos asimétricos significativos: los extremos lluviosos provocan un incremento inmediato pero transitorio en los precios, especialmente en subíndices agropecuarios, seguido de una corrección a la baja, mientras que los eventos secos generan un aumento gradual que se vuelve estadísticamente significativo con mayor rezago. Adicionalmente, se identifica heterogeneidad espacial mediante el agrupamiento de cantones según sus patrones de anomalías climáticas. Finalmente, se encuentra que la ocurrencia de eventos extremos consecutivos amplifica el efecto del choque y su persistencia, y las regresiones cuantílicas confirman riesgos inflacionarios de cola pronunciados en el percentil 90 de la distribución condicional. Estos hallazgos evidencian la necesidad de emplear datos climáticos desagregados e incorporar explícitamente sus efectos en los modelos de pronostico macroeconómico. |
| Keywords: | Extreme hydrometeorological events, inflation, local projections, non-linearities, Eventos hidrometereológicos extremos, inflación, proyecciones locales, no linealidades. |
| JEL: | E37 Q54 E31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apk:doctra:2608 |
| By: | Aojie Yuan; Haiyue Zhang; Zijian Su |
| Abstract: | Decision-focused learning (DFL) trains predictors through downstream objectives, but a different loss need not provide an independent parameter-update direction. We characterize this restriction through the predictor Jacobian, using sparse index tracking to distinguish the covariance entries read by the optimizer from the parameter directions available to learning. Rank-one Jacobians make nonzero per-example gradients collinear; a conditional spectral bound describes near-collinearity. A batch-subspace characterization and counterexamples show why these local statements imply neither common minimizers nor collinear batch updates. Experiments examine when geometry translates into decision quality. Across 38 one-parameter equity configurations, DFL gains over MSE remain below 1.8%; a 385-parameter conditional predictor also has pointwise rank one. In validation-tuned shortest-path and knapsack experiments, full-capacity SPO+ reduces mean regret by 11.6% and 10.6%, respectively; only knapsack survives correction across eight comparisons. The capacity contrast persists on fresh datasets across batch orders and training budgets. Holding expressivity fixed, invertible coordinate scaling lowers spectral effective rank and ordinary SGD gains; compensating for the scaling restores the original trajectories. Financial forward-target controls separate forecast accuracy from decision quality; a matched neural comparison finds no aggregate DFL advantage in the tested architecture. These findings distinguish local rank restrictions, coordinate-dependent optimization and predictive accuracy. Predictor geometry helps explain available learning directions, while held-out decision quality remains the test of practical benefit. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.39261 |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | La présente étude porte sur le rôle de la concurrence et de la réglementation dans les résultats et expériences des consommateurs dans le secteur du soin (accueil de la petite enfance et soins de longue durée). Ces deux services sont essentiels au bien-être économique et social, notamment au vu de l’évolution démographique et de leurs conséquences transversales sur d’autres composantes de l’économie, comme la participation des femmes à la vie active. L'étude analyse comment la concurrence et la réglementation peuvent favoriser la qualité et les résultats du marché, tout en s’attaquant aux défaillances du marché et aux préoccupations d’équité au sein du secteur, afin d’arriver à une conclusion sur le rôle que peuvent jouer les autorités de la concurrence. |
| Date: | 2024–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:315-fr |
| By: | Christina Anderl; Guglielmo Maria Caporale |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the diffusion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) affects the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to asset prices. A new index of AI intensity for US industries is constructed by combining AI patents, the AI content of corporate disclosures, and the AI exposure of occupational mixes; this is then validated against survey evidence on AI. Panel local projection estimates indicate that AI-intensive industries earn significantly higher excess returns and command higher valuations in response to supply and technology shocks, but do not exhibit different responses to demand shocks. The response to the former type of shocks is economically large, robust across multiple independent supply-side identifications, and survives controlling for exposure to standard risk factors. It is driven by the industries that use AI rather than those that produce it, it is accompanied by a contemporaneous rise in valuations over the same horizon, and it is concentrated in high-volatility states. On the whole the results suggest that technological exposure is an important determinant of how aggregate shocks affect the cross-section of industries examined. |
| Keywords: | AI intensity, panel local projections, stock returns, volatility, economic shocks |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G12 G14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13000 |
| By: | Katsutoshi Nohara |
| Abstract: | This study applies a partial proportional-odds model to examine whether people’s psychological distance from climate change changed during a period encompassing the unprecedented heat experienced in Japan in 2023 and 2024. It also investigates how psychological distance and environmental knowledge are associated with willingness to pay for climate change mitigation measures. The study draws on two repeated cross-sectional surveys using identical questionnaires administered to different respondents in 2022 and 2025. Propensity scores and overlap weighting were used to improve the comparability of the two survey samples by balancing observed differences in age, gender, and prefecture of residence. After this adjustment, respondents in 2025 were more likely than comparable respondents in 2022 to perceive climate change as psychologically proximate. Specifically, the predicted probability of reporting a high level of psychological proximity was approximately 13 percentage points higher in 2025. Although this difference cannot be attributed exclusively to the record-breaking heat experienced in 2023 and 2024, the findings suggest that the unprecedented heat may have contributed to making climate change appear more immediate and personally relevant. Furthermore, the contingent valuation analysis shows that the positive association between environmental knowledge and willingness to pay depends on psychological distance: greater environmental knowledge is associated with higher willingness to pay, particularly among individuals who perceive climate change as psychologically close. These findings provide important insights into the design and communication of climate policies. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:89 |
| By: | Leighton, Margaret (University of St Andrews); Speer, Jamin (University of Memphis) |
| Abstract: | There is a large gender gap in who chooses STEM majors, yet decades of research have failed to explain this gap in its entirety. We use extensive data on incoming college freshmen to estimate the importance of ability (both test-based and self-assessed), life goals, other self-assessed traits, high school courses, and family background in explaining the gender gap in STEM majors. Even with this detailed data, we can explain only 39% of the gender gap. A Gelbach decomposition shows that self-assessed ability (26%) and high school courses (12%) account for the bulk of the explained gap, while goals explain little and in fact controlling for goals slightly widens the gender gap. Goals are similarly uninformative of the gender gap in STEM persistence from freshman to senior year. On the other hand, goals contribute substantially to gender differences in biology and some non- STEM majors, particularly business, education, and health, but remain uninformative of the gap for the majority of STEM subjects. We conclude that while life goals are strongly related to major choice, gender-based differences in these goals are not the missing piece to the STEM gender gap puzzle. |
| Keywords: | gender gaps, STEM, college major, life goals |
| JEL: | J01 J16 I20 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18936 |
| By: | Manu García; Diego Mendez-Carbajo |
| Abstract: | We compile data from 2.4 million economics and personal finance module assignments completed by 513, 000 K-12 students on an educational online platform. We exploit variation in the order in which these students complete the modules–economics or personal finance first– to estimate directional spillovers. The spillover runs one way. Controlling for school demographics, students who take economics first score 3.42 points higher on personal finance post-tests; taking personal finance first raises economics post-tests by 0.15 points on the same specification. A placebo using exposure that occurs after the outcome puts the return at 0.8 to 1.4 points per pre-treatment module. The advantage does not shrink as the gap between subjects grows, and it is largest in raw points for lower-performing students, 5.1 compared with 1.6, though mostly because higher-performing students sit at the test ceiling. Economics appears to supply foundational concepts that personal finance does not. When both subjects are taught, the order matters: economics first is the better order, and one or two economics modules capture most of the available gain. |
| Keywords: | economic education; financial literacy; K-12 education; online learning; curriculum design |
| JEL: | G53 A21 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:103812 |
| By: | Yvan Guillemette |
| Abstract: | This paper presents updated estimates of long-run fiscal gaps for 35 OECD and accession candidate countries using the OECD Global Long-Term Model. The long-run fiscal gap measures the fiscal adjustment required at the 2060 horizon to keep public debt ratios stable near current levels while maintaining current service standards and benefit entitlements. The methodology incorporates several refinements, including projected increases in defence spending and a more detailed treatment of primary expenditure. In the absence of additional policy action, the median country would require a fiscal adjustment of 4.7 percentage points of GDP between 2027 and 2060 to stabilise debt, with substantially larger adjustments in some countries. Population ageing is the main driver of long-run fiscal pressures through higher pension, health and long-term care spending, compounded in many cases by weak initial fiscal positions. The paper also assesses the sensitivity of fiscal gaps to key assumptions and policy scenarios. |
| Keywords: | fiscal pressure, fiscal sustainability, long-run fiscal gap, long-term projection |
| JEL: | C53 E17 H68 O57 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1877-en |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Les mesures provisoires désignent des instruments préventifs et correctifs qui peuvent être utilisés par les autorités de la concurrence lors d’enquêtes sur de possibles infractions au droit de la concurrence, le plus souvent dans des affaires d’abus de position dominante. Dans les pays d’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (ALC), la plupart des autorités de la concurrence disposent de mesures provisoires dans leurs cadres juridiques, et elles sont nombreuses à y avoir eu recours ces dernières années (Argentine, Brésil, Chili, Colombie, République dominicaine, Paraguay et Pérou, par exemple). Ce document dresse un panorama de la situation actuelle des mesures provisoires dans la région en passant en revue les cadres juridiques, des cas récents d’application du droit de la concurrence, ainsi que les difficultés et les spécificités des pays de la région ALC dans ce domaine. De manière générale, il montre que les mesures provisoires constituent un puissant outil pour les autorités de la concurrence et qu’elles doivent être utilisées avec précaution pour limiter les erreurs dans l’application du droit ainsi que les risques d’atteinte à la réputation qu’elles entraînent. |
| Keywords: | abus de position dominante, Amérique latine, Caraïbes, concurrence, Mesures provisoires |
| Date: | 2024–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:312-fr |
| By: | Guido Bulligan (Bank of Italy); Paolo Farroni (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We examine the post-COVID relationship between household-level income uncertainty and consumption-saving behaviour, using granular data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). We find that higher uncertainty is associated with higher saving rates and lower nominal consumption, with stronger responses among lower-income and liquidity-constrained households. By decomposing uncertainty into downside and upside components, we show that most of the effect is driven by downside risk. At country level, aggregated income uncertainty provides some information beyond the traditional determinants of national saving rates, although its contribution to improving macro-model point forecast accuracy is limited. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty, income risk, saving rate, household expectations, liquidity constraints, macroeconomic forecasting |
| JEL: | D12 D84 E21 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1046_26 |
| By: | Delić, Erna; Gadžo, Amra |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to explore how Swedish sustainability reports can serve as a reference point for Bosnia and Herzegovina in building a more coherent and comparable reporting system. This study focuses on sustainability reports from Swedish listed companies aligned with the CSRD as a benchmark for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2024. By conducting a comparative and content analysis highlight how the structured and detailed form of Swedish reports can inform the development of BiH's practices, which at present lack consistency and formalization. The findings suggest that implementing the CSRD could accelerate BiH's transition toward systematic and internationally comparable reporting. The paper concludes on how Swedish experiences and reporting practices can be adapted to the Bosnian context. The findings indicate that Swedish reports are characterized by a high degree of standardization, sectoral comparability, and integration with European sustainability frameworks, while Bosnian reports show inconsistency and limited stakeholder orientation. The study concludes that gradual adoption of the CSRD, accompanied by institutional support and sector-specific guidelines, could accelerate Bosnia and Herzegovina's transition toward systematic, transparent, and internationally comparable reporting. Swedish experiences thus offer concrete lessons for designing a more coherent sustainability reporting system in Bosnia and Herzegovina. |
| Keywords: | sustainability reporting, content analysis, corporate sustainability reporting directive |
| JEL: | M40 M41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343409 |
| By: | Arati Uday Kamat |
| Abstract: | Prior empirical work on Solana memecoin markets has often conflated pre-graduation (bonding-curve) and post-graduation (open-market) token populations. We test the assumption of population overlap between two independent algorithmic detection streams operating on the same underlying market: sniper-cohort detection and algorithmic filter rejection. Using two non-overlapping observation windows (June 11 to June 25, 2026, and June 29 to July 16, 2026) and two independent versions of the cohort-detection pipeline (v1 and v2), we compute set overlap between cohort-detected mints and rejection-stream mints in each window. Overlap remains under 1 percent of the cohort population in both windows despite substantial variation in cohort detector selectivity (v1: 20, 162 mints; v2: 623 mints) and rejection-stream coverage (v1 window: 83 mints; v2 window: 1, 743 mints). The lifecycle-stage separation is structural rather than statistical: cohort detection operates at the pump.fun bonding-curve stage, while rejection filtering operates on PumpSwap and other post-graduation venues. Cross-window cohort overlap is zero, confirming that different time windows detect distinct token populations. We systematically rule out four alternative explanations: time-window artifact, data-source mismatch, DEX venue asymmetry, and pipeline-version artifact. Implications for filter design, coordinated-behaviour research, and cross-stage token surveillance are discussed. All datasets are released under CC-BY-4.0 for replication. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.18975 |
| By: | Osmanbegović, Edin; Pirić, Nedžad |
| Abstract: | This study explores the influence of digital infrastructure on household connectivity from the perspective of citizens in Bosnia and Herzegovina, responding to a notable gap in empirical research on digital inclusion at the national level. As digital technologies increasingly shape access to services and opportunities, understanding how citizens perceive public and private investment in ICT infrastructure becomes critical. Based on a representative sample of 1, 547 citizens (n = 171), the study examines how perceptions of government and telecom operator investments, alongside the perceived accessibility of digital infrastructure, impact the extent of fixed and mobile internet usage within households. The findings reveal that citizens' confidence in institutional and corporate commitment to digital infrastructure development significantly correlates with higher levels of household connectivity. This underscores the importance of not only expanding access but also improving public trust in the digital ecosystem. The study highlights disparities in perceived infrastructure availability, indicating that equitable digital access remains a persistent challenge. These insights offer actionable recommendations for policymakers and telecom providers aiming to foster inclusive digital development, particularly in underserved regions of Bosnia and Herzegovina. |
| Keywords: | digital infrastructure, internet connectivity |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343399 |
| By: | Uzma Zia (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Executive Summary: The dual shocks of Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict and the Middle East conflict have hit Pakistan equally as other countries worldwide. Tensions along the border are affecting Pakistan's border security, trade flows, lives and livelihood and macro-economic factors. Labor class dependent on bilateral and transit trade activities, gets affected when violence flares. These disruptions are happening at the same time when there is a conflict going on in the Middle East, involving the United States, Israel and Iran. Escalating tensions in Middle East have contributed to higher oil prices, disrupted supply chains, high business costs and reduced purchasing power of households in Pakistan as well as internationally. These combined shocks pose a risk to Pakistan's role as a regional trade gateway by undermining trade continuity, energy security, and regional connectivity. Pakistan needs an immediate policy action to protect trade, energy security and regional connectivity. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2026:76 |
| By: | Simshauser, P. |
| Abstract: | This article examines whether zonal average-price wind swaps, more accurately defined as Asian wind swaps, are a 'bankable' instrument. Specifically, can a derivative that references the wind fleet's average price underwrite a bespoke project financed new entrant wind farm in Australia’s National Electricity Market? Prima facie, long -dated Asian swaps referencing the wind fleet’s dispatch-weighted average price present as a material departure from convention, viz. site-specific fixed price (run-of-plant) Power Purchase Agreements. Using South Australia as a deliberately demanding test case, ten years of chronologically matched 30-minute spot-price and wind-production data are block-bootstrapped into 10, 000 synthetic years of market data. This data is the n utilised within a hedge optimisation and stochastic project finance models across heterogeneous wind farms with explicit strike -price calibration and debt-sizing to stress-test the 'bankability' of Asian wind swaps. Results confirm when hedge quantities are optimised, and strike prices calibrated to entry costs, Asian wind swaps reduce revenue volatility and support project finance, with debt sizing at broadly equivalent levels to a conventional PPA. Findings suggest an Asian wind swap can plausibly replace bespoke government-originated CfDs, which in turn raises the prospect of seamless divisible re-trading and the creation of liquid secondary markets – a necessary precondition for a healthy retail supplier market. |
| Keywords: | Renewables, Energy-Only Markets, Project Finance, Asian Wind Derivatives, Asian Swaps |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2676 |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | Alors que la complexité et l’échelle des marchés ne cessent de croître, des approches davantage fondées sur la coopération pour concevoir les mesures correctives peuvent améliorer l’efficacité de l’action des autorités de la concurrence et empêcher les résultats incohérents. Ce document analyse la conception des mesures correctives pour l’application du droit de la concurrence, en mettant l’accent sur la valeur de la coopération entre autorités de la concurrence et autres parties prenantes des secteurs public et privé. Il introduit le concept de mesures correctives, présente les principales définitions et les grands principes, et examine en quoi la collaboration peut accroître l’efficacité des mesures correctives. Il étudie également l’architecture de la coopération, ainsi que les défis qu’elle pose. |
| Keywords: | concurrence, coopération, droit de la concurrence, Marchés imparfaits, mesures correctives, Politique en matière de fusions, Pratiques anticoncurrentielles |
| JEL: | K21 L13 L40 L41 |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:328-fr |
| By: | Nasir Iqbal (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Baber Majid Bhatti (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | A fully digital platform to simplify business registration in Pakistan, empowering MSMEs with mobile-first access, FBR and SECP integration, and secure online services. |
| Keywords: | business registration Pakistan, digital registration MSMEs, Pakistan startup registration, e-registration portal Pakistan, PITB limitations, FBR SECP integration, SME formalization Pakistan, online business setup, mobile-first business platform, digital business licensing |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:pviewp:2025:47 |
| By: | José Alves; Alexandre Ernesto da Costa António |
| Abstract: | How does informality shape fiscal adjustment when governments face debt stress? We study 122 non-advanced economies from 1990 to 2020 by embedding shadow-economy exposure in fiscal reaction functions, debt-dynamics decompositions, and state-dependent impulse responses. The central design uses predetermined pre-2008 informality and the common timing of the Global Financial Crisis. Countries with higher pre-crisis informal-ity run a larger post-2008 primary balance, a differential of roughly 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points of GDP, against a sample-mean deficit near 0.8 percent after absorbing country effects, common shocks, and region-year shocks; event-study estimates cannot reject parallel pre-trends before the shock (a test with limited power), and the post-2008 break survives netting out a linear pre-trend. The result survives country trends, outcome win-sonorization, alternative event windows, country-level randomization inference, and full leave-one-country-out diagnostics. Mechanism tests show that the primary balance is the main adjustment margin, with weaker evidence of revenue effort and little support for a clean expenditure, growth, snowball, or debt-stock channel. A fiscal-rule adoption event study provides a non-GFC scope check: pre-trends are clean, but the informality differ-ential is short-lived rather than persistent. We do not find a stable universal pooled inter-action coefficient; fixed-effects, IV, and GMM estimates of the average debt-response gradient are often imprecise. The evidence supports a narrower claim: informality be-comes fiscally consequential when stress tightens governments’ room for manoeuvre, forcing sharper primary-balance adjustment rather than indicating stronger underlying fiscal capacity. |
| Keywords: | Shadow economy, fiscal sustainability, fiscal reaction function, time-varying parameters, debt dynamics, fiscal space, developing countries. |
| JEL: | E26 E62 H63 O17 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04262026 |
| By: | Florian Gach; Simon Hochgerner |
| Abstract: | This article is concerned with the asymptotic shape of quantile surfaces, defined as the set of quantiles at a given level $\alpha$ generated by a controlled one-dimensional distribution. Specifically, when the distribution arises as a linear combination of log-normal random variables and the control is a vector of positive coefficients, we prove that quantile surfaces are globally concave in the left tail ($\alpha\to0$) and globally convex in the right tail ($\alpha\to1$). Moreover, these surfaces exhibit asymptotic separation of scale and shape. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.31345 |
| By: | Ganninger, Robin Alexander |
| Abstract: | The corporate office is currently experiencing an ambivalent dynamic. It has never been easier to decouple work from physical presence in the office, and yet many companies are pushing to increase the proportion of on-site work. The future role of the office is therefore being renegotiated within companies and wider society. Over the past decades, knowledge work has become an integral part of modern economies and a key factor in the success of businesses. Consequently, the corporate office has evolved into a key locus for the creation of business value. Meanwhile, the role of the office has been subject to a continuous process of adaptation to changes in the world of work, driven in particular by technological, organisational and societal developments. The recent Covid-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated the ongoing development dynamics and engendered a shift towards hybrid forms of work. The flexibility that results from this change in terms of time and location makes the office one option within a flexible arrangement of different workplaces and calls into question the traditional role of the office as the primary place of work. On the one hand, this presents novel prospects for the generation of value for the company, for example by supporting work-life balance and employee satisfaction. On the other hand, concerns have been raised regarding the maintenance of team culture, as well as issues of management and leadership. Companies find themselves in a state of flux in this increasingly complex environment, caught between complete flexibility and a forced return to the office. This has led to significant challenges in the organisation of office work, and the associated quality and quantity of corporate office spaces. To understand the future role of the corporate office in the modern world of work and to generate value in the context of the new operating environment, it is necessary to take a holistic view of the transformation process. In this cumulative dissertation, relevant developments at the macro, meso and micro levels are analysed through five research articles and situated within the holistic research framework of multi-level perspective theory. The first article examines the factors underlying the decision to attend or not to attend the corporate office from a behavioural psychology perspective. In the context of the pandemic-induced changes in working practices and structures, the findings offer a comprehensive understanding of the evolving perception of the office within the hybrid working environment. The article thus contributes to an understanding of the macro-structural developments driving the transformation of corporate working environments. Concurrently, it elucidates the organisational and design aspects that shape the appeal of office space in the modern, hybrid working environment. In practice, behavioural decisions regarding office attendance can therefore not only be understood but also positively influenced by specifically addressing the aspects outlined. The second article builds upon the findings of the first by introducing the temporal dimension. A longitudinal study examines developments in utilisation behaviour and the underlying psychological decision-making structures. While office usage in the post-pandemic period was predominantly influenced by users’ individual attitudes, the results of the study indicate a shift from individual to socially anchored decision-making patterns. This process can be interpreted as an expression of the maturing and stabilisation of office utilisation behaviour, and points to an increasingly strong integration of the corporate office into employees' social and private structures. The study thus demonstrates, on the one hand, the dynamics in the macro-environment and the ongoing pressure for adaptation on existing office structures, and, on the other hand, underlines the need to strategically position the office within the hybrid working environment. It becomes evident that the role of the office as a social hub has become increasingly solidified. The office's capacity to offer a physical space conducive to social structures is thus emerging as a salient factor in a work environment wherein employees demonstrate heightened awareness of their individual needs, constraints and work-life conflicts when selecting their place of work. The third article examines the potential value contributions that activity-based office concepts can deliver in the context of the contemporary, hybrid working environment. In a case study of a German IT company with approximately 6, 000 employees, a holistic evaluation framework was developed and applied, integrating both the cost and benefit perspectives of various design alternatives for the office environment. The findings indicate a positive value contribution from the activity-based working environment across both dimensions, thereby generating a holistic added value of 17% compared to a traditional office design. On the one hand, this underscores the necessity to adapt office concepts to the evolving conditions of the working world. On the other hand, it exemplifies the merits of activity-based office concepts within the prevailing development dynamics. At the meso level, these findings support the strategic positioning of the office between innovative processes at the micro level and the pressure to adapt from the macroenvironment, by making the value contribution of various office design alternatives measurable. This enables companies to navigate the transformation towards activity-based concepts in a value-driven manner, measure success and identify potential for improvement. The fourth article examines the influence of the office on a company's attractiveness in the labour market and the extent to which corporate real estate management has the capacity to influence this through strategic decisions. This broadens our understanding of the meso level regarding the external perception and positioning of the company in the labour market (macro-environment). The results indicate that workplace-related characteristics (e.g., equipment and design, or accessibility of the company's office) are as relevant for employer attractiveness as traditional criteria (e.g., salary, job security, or opportunities for further training and qualifications). The findings thus emphasise the mounting significance of the office as a strategic asset in the labour market. However, the potential for corporate real estate management to influence relevant factors is not yet being fully exploited in practice. Through targeted measures regarding the implementation and outward communication of relevant workplace-related characteristics, the untapped potential of the corporate office to signal employer attractiveness can be harnessed. The fifth article derives design principles for modern, activity-based working environments. Employing a zone-specific post-occupancy evaluation, the study examined the influence of various indoor environmental qualities (e.g., thermal comfort, acoustics and privacy) on the suitability of activity-based zones for specific tasks. The results reveal that employees hold zone-specific expectations, and that the perceived suitability of a zone is highly contingent on the fulfilment of certain specific indoor environmental qualities. By contrast, most indoor environmental qualities appear to be losing relevance, as the need for them to be met at a specific workstation is offset by the general freedom of choice regarding workstations within the office environment. The increasing adoption of activity-based concepts and practices from the micro level into prevailing office structures therefore also requires a more nuanced understanding of indoor environmental qualities. These findings have two main implications. First, they contribute to the development of suitable workspaces for various cognitive functions during the design phase. Second, they provide a basis for zone-specific performance measurement to guide further conceptual development in practice. This dissertation provides a comprehensive investigation into the evolution of the role of the corporate office in the modern world of work. By examining the interrelationships at various levels, it enables a profound understanding of the multi-dimensional dynamics of the systemic change. As such, it emphasises the mounting significance of the office as a resource for both employees and companies in the hybrid working landscape. The thesis not only provides theoretical background to deepen the current academic discourse, but also derives practical recommendations, facilitating a proactive management and value-oriented positioning of the corporate office in practice. The insights gained thus represent a starting point for further research and a foundation for investigating future development dynamics. |
| Date: | 2026–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:162579 |
| By: | Pavel Kireyev |
| Abstract: | LLMs increasingly act as purchasing agents, which makes the LLM, not the user, the one choosing among the options that satisfy a request; its preferences quietly fix what gets bought and what it costs. Hotel booking is a clean instance: a high-volume choice settled on a few comparable attributes, where the pick reveals those preferences. We introduce PriceBench, a diagnostic benchmark that recovers an LLM's price, quality, and brand preferences from its booking choices with a logit choice model, applied to 28 LLMs from 8 providers on 3, 600 hotel tasks from 179 real New York City properties. We find that capability is associated with how consistently an LLM chooses, not with what it chooses: more capable LLMs hold stronger, more consistent preferences, while weaker ones either lock onto one position, exploitable by whoever controls listing order, or choose almost indifferently. What those preferences favor varies sharply across providers and even within one family: price sensitivity spans more than an order of magnitude, and the price/quality trade-off moves mean booked nightly price from \$247 to \$393 on identical tasks. What an agent buys must therefore be measured per LLM, not inferred, and we release the tasks, code, and all 28 response sets. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.31468 |
| By: | Emmanuel Guerre; Yao Luo |
| Abstract: | We consider nonparametric identification of independent private value first-price auction models, in which the analyst only observes winning bids. Our benchmark model assumes an exogenous number of bidders N. We show that, if the bidders observe N, the resulting discontinuities in the winning bid density can be used to identify the distribution of N. The private value distribution can be nonparametrically identified in a second step. This extends, under testable identification conditions, to the case where N is a number of potential buyers, who bid with some unknown probability. Identification also holds in presence of additive unobserved heterogeneity drawn from some parametric distributions. |
| Keywords: | Auction models, unobserved competition, nonparametric identification, density discontinuities, bidder uncertainty, unobserved heterogeneity |
| JEL: | C14 C57 D44 |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-827 |
| By: | Mr. Federico J Diez; Trevor Tombe; Yuanchen Yang |
| Abstract: | Domestic markets can be far from fully integrated within a country: Canada's interprovincial trade is half the size of its international trade. We estimate internal trade costs using bilateral flows across hundreds of products and sectors and decompose them into geographic and non-geographic components. Embedding these estimates in a multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model with input–output linkages and interprovincial migration, we find that removing all non-distance barriers raises real GDP by 6.8 percent in our baseline scenario, with the largest gains accruing to smaller provinces. We also identify services as the sectors generating the largest liberalization gains. Further, sequential provincial liberalization can generate a virtuous cycle, where a province's liberalization increases the gains from (and incentives for) subsequent liberalization for most other following provinces. Finally, we show that the potential gains from domestic market integration can offset the GDP losses from increases in external trade costs. |
| Keywords: | Internal trade barriers; domestic market integration; interprovincial trade; gains from trade liberalization |
| Date: | 2026–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/194 |
| By: | Ekaterina Korotkova; Georgy Lukyanov |
| Abstract: | Organizations often learn about competence only from project-level success or failure, even when a project contains several complementary tasks. We compare task architectures by the Blackwell order. An expert of unknown fixed competence can perform all tasks in one bundled project, one task in a project completed by an outside technology, or the same number of tasks across separate projects. Bundling dominates a single narrow assignment below an outside-reliability threshold and is otherwise incomparable with it. Holding the expert's workload fixed strictly lowers this threshold but does not overturn the result: bundling still dominates when the outside technology is sufficiently unreliable, separate projects dominate only when that technology is perfect, and the experiments are otherwise incomparable. We derive the thresholds for any number of tasks and show that the fixed-workload threshold decreases to zero as task scope grows. Explicit posterior-variance formulas measure the cost of coarse aggregation for particular decisions. Finally, in the two-task case, occasional stage-level audits expand the bundling-dominance region according to an exact frontier. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.00322 |
| By: | Matthew Bone; Fabian Stephany; Maria del Rio-Chanona |
| Abstract: | Employers are increasingly using large language models (LLMs) to automate their hiring process. This paper investigates the risk of monocultural biases, in which the widespread deployment of large language models homogenizes biases across the labor market, leading to greater systemic exclusion for certain demographic groups. For ten LLMs, we measure hiring biases across their base and post-trained versions to identify which stage, pre-training or post-training, lead to monocultural biases. We find that, compared to their base models, post-trained models are 3.6% less likely to callback older applicants. This negative shift occurs in eight of the ten models that we evaluate. Post-trained models have much more correlated decisions than base models which is likely driven by human capital traits like skills or college major. However, greater consensus among models increases global systemic exclusion rates from 5.6% to 17.3% and exacerbates demographic inequalities, with intersectional systemic exclusion rates ranging from 12.2% to 21.7% for post-trained models. We find that this inequality is primarily driven by age-based discrimination that is exacerbated in post-training. These results indicate that while post-training techniques may improve models' abilities to select the best applicants, they may raise systemic inequality risks for those at the margin by uniformly introducing new biases. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.22169 |
| By: | Sylvain Zeghni (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - Université Gustave Eiffel - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | L'habitabilité terrestre peut être envisagée comme la capacité du système Terre à maintenir, dans la durée, des conditions physiques et écologiques compatibles avec la vie complexe et avec l'organisation des sociétés humaines. Cette propriété n'est pas indépendante des transformations de la biosphère: elle résulte d'un ensemble d'interactions entre l'atmosphère, les océans, la cryosphère, les écosystèmes et les sociétés. L'Anthropocène se caractérise précisément par une perturbation rapide de ces interactions sous l'effet des émissions anthropiques de gaz à effet de serre, de la conversion des terres et de l'intensification des usages des ressources. Cet article examine cette transformation à partir de trois entrées complémentaires: les limites planétaires, les contraintes physiologiques imposées par les chaleurs extrêmes et les dynamiques de basculement susceptibles d'affecter certains grands soussystèmes du système Terre. L'analyse montre que le risque climatique ne peut être réduit à une hausse moyenne de température. Il concerne également les marges de résilience des écosystèmes, les conditions de thermorégulation humaine, les rétroactions du carbone et de l'eau, ainsi que les capacités d'adaptation des sociétés. Cette perspective conduit enfin à considérer l'habitabilité comme une question de justice, de mobilité et de gouvernance mondiale. |
| Keywords: | Habitabilité, limites planétaires, points de bascule, niche climatique humaine, température au thermomètre mouillé |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05744366 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Neurotechnologies are rapidly expanding across clinical, research, and consumer domains, creating unprecedented opportunities for improving medical care, overcoming disabilities, and transforming everyday life. Their operation depends on neurodata, a diverse set of signals and information derived from processing, which can be generated across complex digital, clinical, and business environments and may be highly sensitive for the individuals concerned. A growing number of policy frameworks address the data governance aspects of neurotechnology globally. While indispensable, their overlap also makes compliance challenging, triggers concerns of uneven oversight and hindrance to innovation, while potentially overlooking high-risk uses. To inform coherent and proportionate approaches to neurodata governance, this paper analyses the current policy landscape and company practices, mapping how such data are collected, transformed, and used throughout the data lifecycle. The findings highlight the importance of a responsive, human-centric, and evidence-based policy approach that is adaptable to technological developments and aligned with innovation, growth, and public benefit. |
| Keywords: | agile regulation, data governance, emerging technologies, medical device regulation, neurodata governance, neurotechnology, privacy |
| JEL: | I18 K24 O33 O38 K29 |
| Date: | 2026–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaac:195-en |
| By: | Maria-Ximena Acero (UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva, ARENES - Arènes: politique, santé publique, environnement, médias - UR - Université de Rennes - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mathias Waelli (UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva, ARENES - Arènes: politique, santé publique, environnement, médias - UR - Université de Rennes - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mia Gisselbaek (Faculté de médecine [Genève] - UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva, UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva); Bernardo Bollen Pinto (UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva, Faculté de médecine [Genève] - UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva) |
| Abstract: | Background Clinician-researchers play a key role in bridging clinical care and research, yet their day-to-day activities remain poorly described. This study aimed to characterise the range of activities undertaken by clinician-researchers in a perioperative clinical trial and explore how these activities are experienced by patient-participants. Methods We conducted an ethnographic qualitative case study embedded in an RCT in a tertiary hospital. In phase 1, clinician-researchers (physicians and nurses) were observed in situ over 10 days using shadowing and time-motion analysis to document their activities. In phase 2, we conducted interviews with patient-participants. Data were analysed using an abductive approach informed by activity theory. Results The study was conducted between October and November 2021 and included observation of seven clinician-researchers and eight patient-participants. Clinician-researchers engaged in a variety of activities extending past traditional research tasks. Time spent on supportive tasks was nearly three times as much as that spent on core RCT activities, with many tasks occurring before or after primary research procedures. Non-RCT activities accounted for one-third of observed time. Patient-participants reported that interactions with clinician-researchers contributed to their perioperative experience, particularly through (1) alleviation of boredom and (2) provision of a perceived sense of safety. Conclusions Clinician-researchers undertook a wide range of activities that extended beyond protocol-driven research tasks encompassing significant coordination and relational work. These activities were perceived by patient-participants to positively influence their perioperative experience in this specific context. These findings highlight the importance of considering the full scope of clinician-researchers' work when designing and implementing prospective clinical trials. |
| Keywords: | perioperative medicine, perioperative research, work activities, patient engagement, ethnography, clinical trial, clinician-researcher |
| Date: | 2026–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05754292 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Mobilising finance at scale is essential to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of global biodiversity finance from all sources – public and private, domestic and international – drawing on currently available data. The paper also identifies persistent gaps in the consistency, international comparability, coverage and transparency of biodiversity finance data reported by countries to the Convention on Biological Diversity. It presents options to improve reporting by aligning it with international statistical standards, enhancing transparency in methodologies and strengthening measurement of private finance, while reducing duplication and reporting burdens. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity finance, environmental expenditure, environmental-economic accounting, finance tracking, KMGBF Target 19, public expenditure |
| JEL: | Q57 Q58 H50 |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaac:51-en |
| By: | Yosuke Hashidate |
| Abstract: | Exponential Second-Order Expected Utility (SOEU) underlies the entropic approach to model uncertainty. This paper explores in what sense that functional form is essential. In the misspecification-robust Smooth Ambiguity criterion, let a single parameter govern both the model-level robustness and the ambiguity-averse aggregation across models Cerreia-Vioglio, Hansen, Maccheroni, and Marinacci (2026). The two-layer criterion then equals Exponential SOEU for every compact set of models and every second-order prior, with the Bayesian predictive measure as the baseline. The main results are converses. On the aggregator side, matched curvature is \emph{necessary}: at a fixed curvature no other continuous, strictly increasing aggregator delivers the reduction, and with mismatched curvature there are a model set and a prior for which no single-layer entropic value, at any curvature and any baseline, reproduces the criterion. On the cost side, within the power-divergence family, which contains chi-squared and reverse Kullback--Leibler (KL), only KL has a dual of the log-sum-exp form, and the other members first depart from it at the third cumulant. Finally, the value dual to Exponential SOEU is a robust-control value: it is motivated by Rational Inattention, but no Bayes-plausible information-acquisition problem about a fixed act generates it. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.26552 |
| By: | Swindle, Jeffrey (University of Texas at Austin); Blanton, Matthew |
| Abstract: | Across a new transnational wave of illiberal governance, tough-on-crime approaches to public safety and migration are growing. The case of El Salvador, in which President Nayib Bukele suspended due process protections and imprisoned suspected gang members in mass beginning in late March 2022 under a State of Exception policy, offers a window into this process. Turning to a combination of administrative datasets and cross-national surveys, we show that despite tremendous public approval for President Bukele’s strategies as the solution to a long history of persistent gang violence and international migration, violence largely reduced before he implemented the State of Exception, and Salvadorans’ migration intentions have not declined. Moreover, we find no evidence that the policy or Bukele taking office produced a particular reduction in Salvadoran migration to either the U.S. or Mexico compared to Guatemalan and Honduran migration. Nor do we uncover clear evidence that return migration to El Salvador uniquely increased, undercutting conclusions that illiberal tough-on-crime policies like El Salvador’s are likely to address “root causes” of international migration. |
| Date: | 2026–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4zvqb_v1 |
| By: | Taotao He; Runfa Hu |
| Abstract: | We study the computational complexity of peak-oriented rationalizability, a survey based revealed-preference test introduced by Seror (2026). We provide a polynomial-time algorithm for testing rationalizability and recovering a utility function, establishing that peak-oriented preference elicitation is computationally tractable. In contrast, we show that computing the peak-oriented Houtman-Maks index is NP-hard. These results delineate the precise computational boundaries of peak-oriented revealed-preference analysis. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.30042 |
| By: | Gavin Kader |
| Abstract: | The Money Pump Index (MPI) of Echenique et al. (2011) measures the severity of consumer irrationality, but computing the exact mean and median MPI over all revealed preference cycles is NP-hard (Smeulders et al., 2013). Existing solutions rely on heuristic proxies, such as evaluating only shorter cycles or bounding the MPI. By framing revealed preferences as a directed graph, this paper projects choice violations onto fundamental cycle bases, which are minimal sets of linearly independent cycles that span the graph's entire cycle space. This yields computationally tractable estimators for the mean and median MPI that are asymptotically equivalent to the original MPI. Applying this methodology to the scanner dataset analyzed by Echenique et al. (2011) and Smeulders et al., (2013), the proposed estimators compute quickly and with negligible small-sample bias. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.16086 |