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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Pascal Michaillat; Emmanuel Saez |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. While the New Keynesian Phillips curve is based on monopolistic pricing under price-adjustment costs, the Beveridgean Phillips curve is based on directed-search pricing under price-adjustment costs. Under directed search, prices respond to slack instead of marginal costs. The resulting Phillips curve has three properties that match recent US evidence. First, it delivers the divine coincidence: inflation is on target whenever unemployment is at its efficient level—the full-employment rate of unemployment (FERU), the geometric mean of the unemployment and vacancy rates. Second, it is decreasing and convex in the unemployment-inflation plane: inflation responds more strongly to unemployment when the labor market is inefficiently tight than when it is inefficiently slack. The convexity is inherited from the Beveridge curve, which makes unemployment a decreasing and convex function of tightness. Third, shifts of the Beveridge curve move the FERU and therefore shift the unemployment-inflation Phillips curve. The model also implies that the Fed's dual mandate is internally consistent, that a soft landing from an inefficiently tight labor market is possible, and that the zero lower bound is not topsy-turvy. |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E32 E52 E58 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35804 |
| By: | Stefano Blando |
| Abstract: | Before a flood, governments decide where to invest in protection; after it, how much of the loss to compensate. The European Union informs the first decision with a composite index that ranks every subnational unit by vulnerability. This paper tests the ranking by comparing Italian provinces struck by the same flood between 2005 and 2024. The published index does not order provinces by the losses they suffer, with or without controls for hazard, exposure and income ($\rho$ between -0.06 and 0.09). The failure lies in what it weights. As published, the index mostly measures economic development, while losses follow water: they arrive in recurring groups of provinces that share a river basin, and more than half of the ranking error lies between those groups. In a pre-registered test that rebuilds it and eight rivals at every forecast origin from 2010 to 2020, the index comes last on both questions an allocator asks. On where damage will land, its top ten provinces capture 16 per cent of later damage, less than a random draw; Italy's public flood hazard map, blind to losses, captures 44. On who loses more from the same water, its rank correlation with later losses is 0.03; its own components, reweighted on past losses, reach 0.42. Neither repair needs new data. The misranked loss is paid locally. Of EUR 12.3 billion recorded over 2013-2022, 85 per cent was not covered by national transfers, and prevention funding, scored the same way, does no better than chance. Because correlated losses cluster within borders, national pools in Europe need 39 per cent more reserve than cross-border pools of the same size. The index fails the same way across 1, 142 European units, where the repairs are weaker. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.36349 |
| By: | Kohmei Makihara |
| Abstract: | We study how to allocate a good with positive externalities among agents in an information network, without monetary transfers. Each agent observes their own valuation and those of their neighbors. A principal seeks to allocate the good to the highest-valuation agent through a mechanism robust to agents' heterogeneous belief hierarchies, leveraging the network structure and the partial incentive alignment created by allocative externalities. We characterize the networks for which a robustly efficient mechanism exists: it exists if and only if at least two agents are connected to all others. Relaxing robustness to rule out weakly dominated strategies, one universally connected agent suffices. We generalize the results to a broader class of utility functions, show that robust welfare maximization is impossible unless the network is complete, and establish that an ex post incentive compatible mechanism that is efficient under truthful reports exists if and only if no agent is isolated. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.35907 |
| By: | Caterina Pavese; Simon ter Meulen; Ludger Woessmann |
| Abstract: | Does direct integration into native schools or temporary placement in separate schools better promote the education and cultural assimilation of refugee children? In the Netherlands, primary-school-aged refugee children are placed in either integrated or separated schools depending on their randomly assigned municipality. By contrast, all secondary-school-aged arrivals are initially separated. We exploit this institutional setting in two-way fixed-effects models with age-at-arrival and municipality fixed effects. Using rich administrative data, we find that integrated schooling reduces educational attainment at age 18, particularly for children of lower-educated parents. At the same time, integrated schooling increases cultural assimilation, measured by hormonal-contraceptive usage among teenage women, particularly for children from non-Muslim-majority countries. A distinctive feature of separated schooling that may account for its positive educational effect is that it allows employing teachers specialized in native-language teaching for non-native speakers. |
| Keywords: | refugee children, schools, integration, educational attainment, contraceptives |
| JEL: | I24 I21 J13 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13023 |
| By: | Rouvinen, Petri |
| Abstract: | Abstract This review synthesizes the latest scholarly evidence on intangible capital. Drawing on 60 recent studies across macro, meso, and micro levels (anchored by firm-level data from Finland, broader Europe, the US, and Asia) it demonstrates that intangible investments have emerged as the preeminent engine of economic growth, competitiveness, and productivity. The literature yields three critical imperatives for public policy. First, the measurement and statistical tracking of intangibles require a fundamental overhaul; at present, a swath of these investments remains invisible in official data and absent from corporate balance sheets. Second, policymakers must broaden their horizons beyond narrow research and development (R&D) subsidies. Modern innovation policy must embrace the full spectrum of intangible assets – spanning software, data, organizational capital, management capabilities, and brand equity –, while capitalizing on the vital synergies between them. Third, the scalable nature of intangible capital demands a synchronized approach to competition policy, innovation strategy, and corporate finance. Authorities must strike a delicate balance: cultivating the incentives and finance necessary to fuel intangible investments, while simultaneously preventing harmful market concentration and fostering broad diffusion of knowledge. |
| Keywords: | Intangible investments, Productivity, Innovation policy |
| JEL: | E22 O34 O47 D24 G32 |
| Date: | 2026–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:148 |
| By: | Di Giacomo Marina (University of Turin, Italy); Mantovani Marco (University of Milan Bicocca, Italy); Poggi Ambra (ESOMAS Department, University of Turin, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death worldwide. Early detection of CVD risk factors through preventive screening programs can substantially reduce adverse outcomes, yet participation rates remain suboptimal. In this paper, we examine whether perceived social closeness between the sender and the recipient of an invitation to a free cardiovascular health check affects health beliefs and willingness to engage in preventive health intentions. Using a survey experiment on a representative sample of approximately 2, 588 individuals aged 40-74 in England-the target population for the NHS Health Check program-we randomly assign participants to receive an invitation message from a peer who either shares or does not share their social norms. We study whether social closeness between the messenger and the recipient shapes perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and perceived benefits, as predicted by the Health Belief Model. The manipulation successfully alters perceptions of social closeness, and the estimated effects are consistent with the hypothesis that socially closer peer messages are more effective in promoting preventive health intentions. |
| Keywords: | Preventive healthcare, survey experiment, behavioral public policies, social closeness, cardiovascular disease |
| JEL: | I12 I18 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:110 |
| By: | Goraya, Sampreet Singh (House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)); Srhoj, Stjepan (University of Split); Zrnc, Jurica (Croatian National Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how government demand affects the labor share of income. Winning a procurement contract lowers a firm’s labor share. The decline is driven by higher revenue per worker with limited pass-through to wages, and these revenue productivity gains reflect rising firm-level markups rather than improvements in physical efficiency. The effects are strongest for firms winning contracts as the only bidder. Evidence from bids, award prices, and political connections points to limited competition in procurement as the driving force. Government demand thus shapes the division of income between firm owners and workers, with implications for inequality. |
| Keywords: | public procurement; market power; labor share; competition; political connections |
| JEL: | D24 D43 H57 L11 L22 |
| Date: | 2026–09–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2026_005 |
| By: | Suzon Garnier (ASTRO - Agrosystèmes tropicaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Célestine Guillou (ASTRO - Agrosystèmes tropicaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lynda Aissani (UR OPAALE - Optimisation des procédés en Agriculture, Agroalimentaire et Environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Lisette Ibanez (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Jean-Denis Mathias (UR LISC - Laboratoire d'ingénierie pour les systèmes complexes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Anne Tremier (UR OPAALE - Optimisation des procédés en Agriculture, Agroalimentaire et Environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Marc Blazy (ASTRO - Agrosystèmes tropicaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Carla Barlagne (ASTRO - Agrosystèmes tropicaux - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Small island territories such as Guadeloupe face acute challenges in solid waste management and limited recycling of organic residues. Strengthening better household biowaste management is essential to advancing a circular bioeconomy and reducing waste management costs. Composting offers a locally adapted solution that can enhance soil quality, support domestic resource valorization, and divert organic waste from landfills. However, adoption remains limited by behavioural and infrastructural barriers. This study investigates the attitudinal and sociodemographic determinants shaping household biowaste sorting and composting practices in Guadeloupe. The research draws on the COM-B model, which conceptualises behaviour as the interaction of capability, opportunity, and motivation. It also uses the Behaviour Change Wheel to identify key behavioural drivers and design targeted interventions for home and community composting. A household survey (n = 241) was conducted, and behavioural determinants were analysed using binomial probit modelling, principal component analysis, and hierarchical cluster analysis. Results show that physical constraints, such as lack of space and psychological barriers, including perceived complexity and forgetfulness, are the most significant obstacles to composting. Environmental motivation alone is insufficient to induce behavioural change. Three household profiles were identified: indifferent households, motivated and practising households, and motivated but constrained households. Recommendations of targeted policy levers are proposed for each profile to better foster circularity in biowaste management. The study highlights the importance of integrating behavioural insights into circular bioeconomy policies. Differentiated strategies combining education, incentives, and infrastructural support can effectively enhance domestic composting and organic resource recovery in Guadeloupe. |
| Keywords: | Policies, Interventions, Typology, Guadeloupe, Behaviour Change Wheel, COM-B, Composting, Household biowaste |
| Date: | 2026–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05756516 |
| By: | Cook, Lindsey |
| Abstract: | This Comment examines the Tenth Circuit’s decision in Frappied v. Affinity Gaming Black Hawk, LLC and argues that, although the court recognized sex-plus-age claims under Title VII, older women remain disadvantaged by rigid comparator requirements and causation standards. The Comment contends that these doctrines make it difficult for women to prove discrimination based on the intersection of sex and age, particularly in appearance-driven industries where older male comparators are often unavailable. It concludes that the current framework limits the practical value of sex-plus-age claims and leaves many older women without an effective remedy for workplace discrimination. [This abstract was written by Microsoft Copilot, a generative artificial intelligence.] |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:43bz2_v1 |
| By: | Bachbauer, Nadine (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; LIfBi) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the linked survey data of Starting Cohort 6 „Adult Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS-SC6) with administrative data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; Datenfusion ; Nationales Bildungspanel ; Stichprobenverfahren ; NEPS-SC6-ADIAB ; 10.5164/IAB.NEPS-SC6-ADIAB7525.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2026–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202607(de) |
| By: | Wei Ma |
| Abstract: | Experimental evidence reveals that, in aggregating time preferences, a decision maker exhibits mild aversion to inequality across individuals' evaluations of a stream. Neither the utilitarian nor the maxmin aggregation rule can account for this finding. Building on principles concerning the comparability of intergenerational utilities and intergenerational fairness, this paper axiomatizes a family of aggregation rules that allow the decision maker to display varying degrees of inequality aversion. These rules fit well with experimental data. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.36744 |
| By: | Xiwen Bai; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Ricardo Marto; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic and trade-policy implications of disruptions to U.S.-bound shipping routes. Standard models treat them as iceberg-cost shocks, conflating the shock with the response to it. Using satellite vessel-tracking data, we construct route-level measures of potential and effective capacity for all U.S.-bound container ships from 2016 to 2025. Utilization losses in recent disruptions ran 20 to 40 percentage points, and began months before port congestion became visible. We embed these measures in a general equilibrium model in which firms reallocate a common fleet without internalizing the congestion they create and price above marginal cost, while importers' sourcing responds to route profitability. The reallocation triggered by a disruption then has first-order welfare effects, and the route's Domar weight is not a sufficient statistic for its welfare cost. The 2021 West Coast crisis and the 2023-2024 Red Sea attacks cost 0.69% and 0.35% of output. Naval protection of Red Sea shipping generated benefits of 0.04-0.08% of output at a fiscal cost of 0.02%. Tariffs decongest the routes they tax, offsetting or even reversing their conventional welfare cost. |
| JEL: | E23 F12 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35808 |
| By: | alexander, tasmin; Lushasi, Kennedy; Sikana, Lwitiko; Czupryna, Anna; Ferguson, Elaine; Yuson, Mirava; Nadal, Deborah; Hanley, Nicholas; Chng, Nai Rui; Cleaveland, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Culling is recognised as ineffective and potentially counterproductive for sustainable dog population management and rabies control, yet the practice persists in many countries. Empirical data on the scale, organisation, implementation and motivations behind culling remain sparse, limiting understanding of its persistence, and implications. Focusing on Tanzania, a rabies-endemic country where culling has been documented, this study uses a mixed-methods approach, combining two structured surveys (survey of occurrence, n = 51; survey of practice in districts reporting culling, n = 16) and in-depth interviews with district and field-based veterinary and livestock officers (n = 8). Culling was reported in 45% of surveyed districts (23/51). Culling events were reportedly led by veterinary departments, often with involvement of other sectors and communities, with officers also describing communities as carrying out some culling independently. Culling was motivated by complaints, requests and orders about the number of and harms attributed to free-roaming dogs. Roaming dogs were culled regardless of ownership, sterilisation and vaccination status, using methods inconsistent with humane killing standards. Extrapolating from the survey data, using a stochastic simulation, we estimate approximately 26, 000 dogs (95% CI 20, 000-33, 000) are culled annually nationwide. Culling was difficult to reconcile with evidence-based international guidance on dog population management and rabies control, national animal welfare legislation, and One Health principles, underscoring the need to understand and address the factors sustaining it. Addressing culling will require engaging with the wider concerns motivating the practice, and with the sectors and communities involved. |
| Date: | 2026–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ejdy4_v1 |