|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Hristov, Nikolay; Menno, Dominik |
| Abstract: | We employ a medium-scale New Keynesian model with banks and endogenous financial panics (system-wide bank runs) to study whether and how (non-zero) average trend inflation affects the risk of bank runs. Consistent with descriptive empirical evidence for a panel of advanced economies, we find that trend inflation significantly affects the probability of banking panics - this probability more than doubles when annual trend inflation rises from 0% to 6% p.a. The incidence of a banking panic mainly depends on the magnitude of the associated decline in asset prices. With higher trend inflation this decline is stronger. The presence of an occasionally binding zero lower bound increases the likelihood of bank runs, but only for low levels of long-run inflation. Disinflations engineered by the central bank are associated with significantly higher bank-run probability in the short- run, especially when a sharp "cold turkey" disinflation is pursued. Finally, we discuss how trend inflation affects some of the trade-offs faced by monetary and macroprudential policy. |
| Keywords: | Long-run inflation, bank runs, financial panics, crisis probability |
| JEL: | E12 E23 E31 E32 E52 E44 G01 G21 G33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:343042 |
| By: | Claudine Bonneau (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal); Claire Estagnasié (UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Jeremy Aroles (University of York [York, UK]) |
| Abstract: | Since the planetary remote work experimentation ushered in by the Covid-19 pandemic, the idea of working from anywhere, but an office, has become trendier. Seeking to attract talents, some organizations began to propose 'Work from Anywhere' (WFA) modalities.In line with critical research that has examined the mirific promises of new work arrangements, this paper explores how organizations promote WFA to workers desiring greater flexibility. Through an analysis of promotional materials from 27 organizations openly advertising WFA policies, we found that these HR promotional discourses employ aspirational marketing techniques similar to those used by Haute Couture and luxury brands. Our findings reveal that these aspirational narratives strategically appropriate the ideals of digital nomadism as they redefine both the nature of work and the characteristics of the idealized worker. The paper makes two key contributions. First, it sheds light on how HR promotional discourses enable the organizational appropriation of what was originally a personal aspiration. Second, it demonstrates that the 'rebranding' of digital nomadism serves to enhance employer attractiveness while simultaneously encouraging prospective employees to align themselves with the organization's vision of flexibility. |
| Abstract: | Depuis l'expérimentation mondiale du travail à distance provoquée par la pandémie de Covid-19, l'idée de travailler depuis n'importe où, plutôt que depuis un bureau, s'est largement diffusée. Dans le but d'attirer les talents, certaines organisations ont ainsi commencé à proposer des modalités de Work From Anywhere (WFA). Dans la continuité des recherches critiques sur les promesses associées aux nouvelles formes d'organisation du travail, cet article examine la manière dont les organisations promeuvent le WFA auprès de salariés en quête d'une plus grande flexibilité. À partir d'une analyse de supports de communication produits par 27 organisations affichant ouvertement une politique de WFA, nous montrons que ces discours de communication RH mobilisent des techniques de marketing aspirationnel comparables à celles utilisées par les maisons de haute couture et les marques de luxe. Notre analyse révèle que ces récits aspirationnels s'approprient stratégiquement les imaginaires du nomadisme numérique afin de redéfinir à la fois la nature du travail et les caractéristiques du travailleur idéal. L'article apporte deux contributions principales. Premièrement, il met en évidence la manière dont les discours de communication RH permettent aux organisations de s'approprier une aspiration initialement individuelle. Deuxièmement, il montre que cette « requalification » (rebranding) du nomadisme numérique renforce l'attractivité employeur tout en incitant les candidats potentiels à adhérer à la vision organisationnelle de la flexibilité. |
| Keywords: | Work from Anywhere, Aspirational marketing, New work practices, Flexibility, Marketing aspirationnel, Travail depuis partout, Nouvelles pratiques du travail, Flexibilité |
| Date: | 2026–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05710662 |
| By: | Esslinger, Anna |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how the connection of taxation to public benefits can decrease tax payers' perceived tax burden, affecting their labor-leisure decision. We present a model of tax and benefit (mis)-perception, in which payoff maximizing work effort increases when the perceived tax burden de- creases. Increasing the salience of benefits funded by taxation and the prob- ability of receiving them decreases this perceived tax burden. We use two real-effort online experiments to test the suppositions of the model. In a flat tax system, we find that lack of information on the accrual of benefits increases perceived tax burden and decreases labor supply. In a progressive tax system, we find that full benefit salience improves motivation to re- main in the unemployment insurance system and that effort increases under benefit salience when the unemployment rate is high. As such, behavioral responses to the salience of benefits also requires the expectation of their need. |
| Keywords: | Work Motivation, Online Experiment, Tax and Benefit Salience, Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | D91 H24 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:343050 |
| By: | Lane, Edward |
| Abstract: | This paper designs and stress-tests Medicare for All Who Want It (M4AWWI), a voluntary federal public option pairing an income-subsidized base plan with a regulated private wraparound market, an employer-coverage firewall, ACA-consistent risk adjustment, and an all-payer catastrophic reinsurance pool open to public and private carriers on identical terms. Unlike the ACA, which relied exclusively on subsidized private plans and allowed its transitional reinsurance to expire, M4AWWI introduces a public competitor and institutionalizes catastrophic reinsurance permanently. Unlike Buttigieg's 2020 campaign concept—articulated as a slogan without architecture—this paper supplies the institutional design. Unlike single-payer Medicare for All, it retains private insurance and finances coverage through premiums and targeted subsidies rather than broad new taxes. Unlike rival public-option bills conceived as standalone products, M4AWWI adds the regulated supplement market, the symmetric catastrophic pool, and a political frame built for a rural and populist electorate. The method is institutional comparison, statutory-design analysis, and a three-case parameter sensitivity exercise—not a microsimulation, actuarial valuation, or CBO score. Under jointly bounding assumptions for average enrolment (12–28 million) and total plan cost ($650–$875 PMPM), the illustrative ten-year net federal subsidy ranges from approximately $0.23 trillion to $0.92 trillion before optional dedicated revenues. All figures are arithmetic illustrations, not forecasts. The paper concludes that the architecture is technically plausible but that solvency, provider-network adequacy, adverse-selection dynamics, distributional incidence, and federal–state interactions require independent microsimulation and legal analysis before enactment. The original contribution is the integrated architecture and the explicit allocation of catastrophic-tail risk across all payers on common terms. |
| Keywords: | public option, Medicare for All Who Want It, Health insurance reform, Medicare plus supplement, healthcare financing, Medicaid retrenchment, rural hospitals, health inequality, k-shaped economy, Labor mobility and job-lock, Medical debt, Catastrophic reinsurance, Buttigieg, oluntary public option |
| JEL: | H41 H50 H51 H53 I1 I13 I14 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:130382 |
| By: | Drishan Banerjee; Galina Hale; Harrison Shieh |
| Abstract: | Post-pandemic inflation raised fears that U.S. monetary tightening would trigger a repeat of the 1982 sudden stop in capital flows to emerging economies. Yet as of 2026 no global recession has followed. We establish three stylized facts distinguishing the 1980s from the 2020s, beyond the shift to flexible exchange rates: monetary policy effectiveness, fiscal space, and external vulnerabilities. We rationalize them in a Mundell-Fleming framework with a fiscal space constraint, which predicts a central role for fiscal space in transmitting foreign currency risk-free rate increases. Cross-country evidence confirms that fiscal space shapes economic performance post-tightening. |
| JEL: | F34 F42 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35673 |
| By: | Ohto Kanninen; Hannu Karhunen; Sanni Kiviholma; Jeremias Nieminen |
| Abstract: | This is a pre-analysis plan for a quasi-experimental study evaluating the effects of Finland’s 2025 “Decree on National Labour-Shortage Sectors.” Typ-ically, recent labor immigrants can only work in the occupation for which their residence permit has been granted. The new shortage list allows immi-grant workers to switch their occupation to those listed in a nationwide list of shortage occupations. There are currently 9 occupations (4-digit level ISCO classification) on the list, and the list will be updated annually. We will study the effects on worker flows and average earnings in the affected occupations. We will use a difference-in-differences strategy, comparing occupations listed on the shortage list to those not on the list. We utilize information from re-gional guidelines about occupations which have already been classified as labor shortage occupations by the regional authorities. In this pre-analysis plan, we show the pre-trends for our main occupation-level analyses, and the estimate for 1 partially treated month, before the data for more post period months becomes available. |
| Keywords: | shortage list, immigration, pre-analysis plan |
| JEL: | J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:355 |
| By: | Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki; Bøegh Nielsen, Peter |
| Abstract: | Abstract The findings demonstrate that regional Nordic trade contains significant hidden exposure to non-European markets. On average, 11% of intermediate imports from Nordic neighbors originate from outside Europe at the second tier. A substantial portion of this non-European exposure is concentrated in China (27.1%) and other BRICS+ countries (16.3%), representing a vulnerability that standard trade statistics, based on only direct trade, fail to capture. The methodology provides a framework for future pan-European value chain analysis. |
| Keywords: | Value chain, Tier, Resilience, Nordic, Imports, Vulnerability, Indirect |
| JEL: | F15 F52 |
| Date: | 2026–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:181 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Jimenez-Martin, Sergi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Vilaplana, Cristina (University of Murcia) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the health and wellbeing effects of subsidized access to long-term care (LTC). Our analysis exploits the staggered implementation of Spain’s 2007 System of Autonomy and Care for Dependent People (SAAD), which expanded publicly funded and universal LTC subsidies and supports, as well as its subsequent reform. Using two decades worth of administrative and survey data and leveraging exogenous regional and individual-level variation in program exposure, we find that access to SAAD benefits reduces the care receiver’s depressive symptoms by about 1 percentage point, increases its survival probability by 2.6–3 percentage points, and raises its life satisfaction by 0.24–0.50 scale points. Cost-effectiveness estimates indicate that the implied cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained lies below commonly accepted efficiency thresholds for public health spending in Europe. These findings document sizeable health returns and efficiency gains from publicly subsidized LTC provision |
| Keywords: | long-term care subsidies, long-term care supports, old age care, Spain, mortality, cost per QALY, survival, mental health, life satisfaction |
| JEL: | I18 J14 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18890 |
| By: | Marcus Buckmann (Bank of England); Galina Potjagailo (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses how economic theory can be integrated into machine learning (ML) models to enhance their interpretability and applicability for policy analysis. While ML methods offer considerable flexibility and strong predictive performance, they are often criticised for their 'black box' nature and lack of economic transparency. A growing body of research addresses this limitation by introducing structure into ML models − most notably through Block-Additive Models (BAMs) and theory-consistent monotonicity constraints. BAMs group predictors into economically meaningful blocks and impose additivity across blocks, while permitting non-linearities and interactions within them. This architecture enables clear attribution of each block’s contribution to the model’s predictions. Monotonicity constraints further improve interpretability by aligning the model’s directional responses with economic theory, allowing for the separation of opposing effects − such as distinguishing between supply- and demand-driven components of inflation. Empirical evidence shows that these structured ML approaches retain strong predictive performance while yielding economically meaningful narratives. |
| Keywords: | Interpretable machine learning;theory-aligned constraints;macroeconomic analysis |
| JEL: | C10 C14 C53 |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023266 |
| By: | Qing Liu; Zanhui Liu; Vivian Zhanwei Yue |
| Abstract: | Official lending is large, senior, and countercyclical, continuing after sovereigns fall into arrears on private debt. We ask why sovereign finance exhibits this division of labor across creditors. In a production economy where a risk-averse sovereign privately allocates imported inputs, commitment is limited on both sides, and monitoring generates a noisy signal, the constrained-optimal allocation is decentralized by defaultable private debt, senior non-defaultable multilateral debt, and concessional bilateral debt whose relief is tied to the signal. Production remains distorted, but the sovereign is never excluded: official lending is monitored liquidity provision. A calibration reproduces procyclical private and countercyclical official debt. |
| JEL: | F21 F32 F34 F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35667 |
| By: | Hugo Rojas-Romagosa; Gregor Schwerhoff; Sneha D Thube; Sha Yu |
| Abstract: | Solar and wind power account for a growing share of electricity generation in China and now dominate new capacity additions. As the power system transitions toward renewable generation, greater flexibility will be required to maintain system stability. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the macroeconomic implications of this transition. Model results indicate a modest increase in electricity prices in the near-term, followed by sustained declines as renewable shares rise, particularly when variability is managed through battery storage rather than coal-fired backup generation. While the transition requires substantial adjustments in electricity supply and investment, it raises GDP in the long run and strengthens energy security. Battery-based flexibility outperforms continued reliance on coal across multiple dimensions, even when accounting for rising electricity demand from emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. However, this transition pathway also increases the risk of stranded assets in the coal power sector. |
| Keywords: | China; Energy Transition; Renewable Energy; CGE models |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/185 |
| By: | Bence Bardóczy; Joao Guerreiro |
| Abstract: | Automatic stabilizers can respond to a recession without a new policy decision, but their effects on aggregate demand may still only arrive with delay. We study the transmission lag for unemployment insurance extensions in a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model that closely matches the incidence of unemployment risk and the response of household spending to job loss and UI extensions. More generous UI stimulates demand largely by relaxing precautionary saving, so households must anticipate future unemployment risk and benefit duration. To quantify this channel, we work directly with survey expectations, using a measured history of forecast errors and revisions, rather than committing to a specific model of belief formation. Our estimated model implies a significant Expectations-Driven Efficacy Lag. The direct effect of UI extensions on consumption peaks only after UI duration has begun to recede. In general equilibrium, the consumption multiplier is about 0.6 on impact, about half its value under full-information rational expectations, but the policy becomes more effective by the end of the first year of the recession. |
| JEL: | E03 E2 E3 E6 E7 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35705 |
| By: | Hall, Suzanne; Farris, Sara |
| Abstract: | This article intervenes in debates on contemporary border politics by advancing the analytic of racial borderscapes and foregrounding the political economy that structures contemporary bordering regimes. Building on scholarship that understands borders as core to the production of unequal socio-spatial relations, we argue that borderscapes produce racialised differentiation that regulates and diminishes life chances through the combined operations of state and market. We introduce ‘ungrounding’ as a key concept to capture the systematic erosion of the material, legal and affective ‘ground’ on which migrants are able to build a life. Drawing on empirical and conceptual insights from South Africa and the UK, we demonstrate how racial borderscapes heighten intersecting exclusions of spatial isolation, gendered forms of extraction and labour precaritisation. In engaging with the intensification of border controls since the Covid-19 pandemic, this article shows how ungrounding exacerbates inequality, violence and dispossession. |
| Keywords: | racial borderscape;migration;space;gender;labour segmentation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140405 |
| By: | Brice C. Green; Leonid Kogan; Dimitris Papanikolaou; Lawrence D.W. Schmidt |
| Abstract: | Using U.S. administrative data, we find that technology-driven creative destruction in the product market passes through to worker earnings. The passthrough to incumbent worker earnings is both asymmetric and concentrated: profit drops from rival innovations lead to proportionally greater earnings declines and changes in the likelihood of job destruction than profit gains from their own firm’s innovations, while top workers are significantly more exposed than the average worker. We develop an endogenous-growth model with monopsonistic labor markets and worker heterogeneity that replicates this asymmetry and the distribution of earnings risk. In the model, creative destruction exposes high-income workers to concentrated downside risk while increasing upward mobility for lower-income workers, shaping the welfare consequences of innovation policy. |
| JEL: | E0 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35542 |
| By: | Amann, Marvin (IfW Kiel, ifo Institute); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Talavera, Oleksandr (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | Why is war so economically costly? Our answer is that modern war lowers output not only by destroying productive factors, but also by making the surviving economy work less efficiently. Using uniquely comprehensive firm-level data collected during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we document a dramatic collapse in allocative productivity in Ukraine. To sharpen identification and explore key mechanisms (including the role of war intensity, internal displacement, reallocation, and macroeconomic instability), we exploit spatial heterogeneity across Ukrainian districts and comparisons with Russian aggression in 2014 and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Our key policy implication is that restoring allocative efficiency--and preparing institutional arrangements that facilitate rapid reallocation in times of stress--is critical for sustaining economic capacity, defense, and national security. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomics, defense, misallocation, productivity, war, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F51 F52 D24 H56 D61 O47 O52 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18895 |
| By: | Caiafa, Clara R. |
| Abstract: | While a growing body of literature has argued that the rise of a global green hydrogen economy can reshape global value chains and trade patterns, significant uncertainty remains about how transformative such reorganization would be. The economic geography literature has examined drivers of industry location and the potential benefits of different spatial organizations of industries, but a comprehensive application of these findings to a green hydrogen economy has so far been missing. This paper bridges the economic geography literature with research on green hydrogen value chains to identify how different drivers can influence the location of activities across the green hydrogen value chain, and the implications thereof for development opportunities across regions. The analysis concludes that most findings about the renewables‑pull effect draw on cost‑optimization perspectives rooted in classical and neoclassical location theory, overlooking many insights from post‑1990s economic geography. Incorporating this broader perspective suggests that the transformational potential of green hydrogen is more limited than often assumed. Places with only factor input and transport cost advantages may attract simple, mature, activities, in industries where process innovation is incremental and led by large incumbents with the ability to exclude rivals, resulting in limited potential for knowledge-spillovers and self-sustained competitiveness. Meanwhile, regions with complex capabilities but limited renewable energy resources may retain high value added activities related to equipment manufacturing and knowledge development. This would mean that even if industry relocation leads to a reorganization of value chains, it would unlikely fundamentally transform prevailing uneven patterns of specialization and diversification. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Decarbonisation, Industry Location, Global Value Chains, Economic Developement, Green Hydrogen |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343028 |
| By: | Ahmed Ación López; Carlos Vidal-Meliá |
| Abstract: | Spain’s delayed-retirement rules allow eligible workers to choose between a permanent pension supplement, a statutory lump sum, or a mixed option. This paper evaluates whether exchanging the life-contingent supplement for the lump sum is actuarially neutral and examines how behavioral and institutional channels affect the financial comparison. The analysis combines income-stratified mortality, a simulation grid of 280 institutionaldemographic profiles, and population weights derived from the 2024 Continuous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL). Under dynamic segmented mortality, the baseline MCVLweighted ratio of the lump sum to the actuarial present value of the foregone supplement is 0.512, and none of the simulated profiles reaches actuarial neutrality. The shortfall is larger for women and higher-pension profiles because the lump-sum formula is concave in pension entitlement and does not incorporate longevity differences. Tax treatment, policy risk, and present-oriented discounting can make commutation financially defensible for some profiles. In the most favorable combined scenario, profiles reaching financial indifference represent 39.38% of the MCVL-weighted population and contain 8.0 percentage points of the observed 24.02% lump-or-mixed take-up rate. Under the central CRRA specification, the MCVL-weighted certainty-equivalent gap is 3.0%, although this welfare result is conditional on the maintained assumptions. The findings support clearer actuarial information and a review of the statutory formula, while distinguishing formula non-neutrality from the rationality of individual choices. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-25 |
| By: | John A. List |
| Abstract: | Consider a referee report containing the sentence: “Assignment to treatment was voluntary, though the authors acknowledge this as a limitation in the conclusion.” The Editor would summarily reject. Now replace “assignment to treatment” with “entry into the experimental sample, ” and the sentence describes the modal published experiment. This study shows that both biases are the same mathematical object. The bias from non-random sample entry is the sorting-on-gains term from the classic selection decomposition. Interestingly, they both admit an isomorphic Roy micro-foundation and inverse-Mills characterization. A simple calibration reveals that for the typical experiment, the observed bias can be large. One solution to this bias is to conduct a natural field experiment (NFE). When an NFE is not possible, three alternative reporting practices are offered. |
| JEL: | C21 C24 C9 C90 C91 C92 C93 C99 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35544 |
| By: | Narimen Rdhaounia; Saoussen Ouhibi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal relationship between the shadow economy and unemployment in Tunisia, focusing on the direction of causality and its theoretical foundations. Drawing on labor market segmentation and the dual economy model, the study argues that informality can strain the formal labor market by diverting labor supply, reducing formal job opportunities, and reinforcing unemployment. Using monthly data from 1991–2017, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimates both short- and long-run effects. Results show a significant positive long-run impact of the shadow economy on formal unemployment, highlighting structural constraints imposed by informality. Policy implications include formalizing economic activities, encouraging informal enterprises to transition to the formal sector, promoting decent job creation, and strengthening labor protections. This research provides country-specific empirical evidence on Tunisia’s informality–unemployment nexus, clarifies causality direction, and offers actionable insights for addressing unemployment through regulation and formalization of the shadow economy. |
| Keywords: | Shadow economy, unemployment, ARDL Model, Tunisian. |
| JEL: | J24 D63 O50 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2026_08 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Many communities across the OECD are struggling to keep pace with economic change. Persistent disparities in employment rates, skills mismatches and economic inactivity reflect a fractured geography of opportunities, and long-lasting effects of economic shocks and structural change. The consequences are not just economic, but also deeply personal, with potential to fuel disillusionment and to reinforce cycles of disadvantage. Yet, successful examples of transformation highlight that decline is not inevitable. Experiences from success stories can inform how to both better address scars from the past as well as more proactively adapt to future transitions. This paper provides a fresh perspective on place transformation, in particular one that better reflects the role of “soft infrastructure” like local leadership and place identity, bridges local and external drivers of change, and better integrates economic and social outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2026/12-en |
| By: | Liu, ZY |
| Abstract: | This article examines the formation of modern Manchu identity and its relationship to Manchu–Han tensions within the context of Han nationalist discourse on the Chinese internet in the 2020s. It begins by analyzing the Qing Eight Banner system, arguing that the banners were not a single-ethnicity organization in the modern sense, but a political and social system composed of multiple identity groups including Manchu, Mongol, Han-martial (Hanjun), and bondservant (baoyi) populations. After the fall of the Qing, the former banner affiliation was gradually reorganized within the modern ethnic classification system, producing the Manchu identity of today. The article further discusses the process of reconstituting modern Manchu identity since the 1980s, contending that this process involves both historical continuity and the influence of ethnic policy, local administrative factors, and practical interests. When ethnic identity becomes linked to the allocation of public resources, social policy, and historical narrative, it may shift from cultural identification toward an identity of social interest. The article maintains that contemporary Manchu–Han contradictions are not purely ethnic conflicts, but the product of the combined operation of historical memory, identity recognition, class differences, and material interests. Reducing the binding between ethnic identity and the distribution of public goods, thereby allowing ethnic identity to return more fully to the domain of cultural identification, may be an important direction for alleviating related tensions. |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2wuge_v1 |
| By: | Jiri Podpiera |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the credit-growth nexus by shifting the focus from aggregate leverage and credit stocks to new credit flows. Using quarterly data for 12 euro area countries over 2007–24, covering 96 percent of euro area GDP, the analysis shows a robust empirical association between newly granted bank credit and private final domestic demand (PFDD), a close proxy for GDP. A 10 percent increase in new private credit is associated with about 0.5–0.7 percentage points growth in PFDD. In contrast, specifications based on credit stocks or leverage produce unstable or counterintuitive estimates, reflecting measurement biases related to debt repayments and denominator effects. Nothwithstanding the importance of debt levels and leverage for financial stability and through debt service for the economy, the findings suggest that new credit flows appear to provide a more empirically reliable proxy for the macroeconomic role of bank lending. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending; Economic growth; Macrofinance |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/184 |
| By: | Martins, Pedro (Nova School of Business and Economics); Silva, Pedro (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Temudo, Madalena (Nova School of Business and Economics); Pinho, Ana (Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies) |
| Abstract: | Vocational education and training (VET) may accelerate entry into the labour market while reducing participation in further education. We quantify this trade-off in the context of a school-based vocational system. We draw on administrative data linked to a post-secondary survey for five cohorts in Portugal. We exploit the institutional structure of the educational system to address self-selection. Identification leverages leave-out variation in the share of lower-secondary classmates who subsequently choose VET. We find a pronounced trade-off in early post-school transitions for students whose track choices respond to those of their peer choices: vocational enrolment increases employment by 26-34 percentage points and improves several job quality indicators; on the other hand, VET reduces further education participation by 30-40 percentage points. VET is also associated with higher NEET incidence, an effect that appears to reflect earlier exposure to unemployment rather than inactivity during the school-to-work transition. Additional analyses suggest important heterogeneity across VET school types and fields of specialisation, with smoother transitions in (publicly funded) private VET schools, and engineering-related fields. |
| Keywords: | school-based vocational education, peer choices, school-to-work transition, NEET, job quality |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J24 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18884 |
| By: | Maroine Ikhmim (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Sara Elouadi (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of employee share ownership and corporate governance quality on the performance of Moroccan banks over the 2014-2023 period. Using a fixed-effects panel model, the findings reveal that employee ownership has a positive and significant effect on profitability, especially when governance mechanisms are strong and transparent. Governance is found to play a dual role: a mediating role, by transmitting the effects of employee ownership to performance, and a moderating role, by strengthening this relationship according to the level of governance quality. In addition, capitalization, income diversification, and asset quality emerge as key drivers of profitability. The study highlights the complementarity between internal incentives and governance structures in fostering value creation within banks, while providing managerial and prudential insights for achieving sustainable performance in the Moroccan banking sector. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche analyse l'impact de l'actionnariat salarié et de la qualité de la gouvernance sur la performance des banques marocaines sur la période 2014-2023. En mobilisant un modèle de données de panel à effets fixes, l'étude montre que la participation des salariés au capital exerce un effet positif et significatif sur la rentabilité, notamment lorsque les dispositifs de gouvernance sont solides et transparents. Les résultats indiquent également que la gouvernance joue un double rôle : médiateur, en relayant les effets de l'actionnariat salarié vers la performance, et modérateur, en renforçant leur intensité selon le niveau de gouvernance observé. Par ailleurs, la capitalisation, la diversification des revenus et la qualité d'actifs apparaissent comme des déterminants majeurs de la rentabilité. Cette étude met en évidence la complémentarité entre incitations internes et structures de contrôle dans la création de valeur bancaire, tout en soulignant les implications managériales et prudentielles pour la consolidation de la performance durable des banques marocaines. |
| Keywords: | Gouvernance bancaire -Actionnariat salarié -Performance -Rentabilité -Maroc Banking governance -Employee ownership -Banking performance -Profitability -Morocco |
| Date: | 2025–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05660421 |
| By: | Schnell, Eric; Schimmelpfennig, Robin; Li, Xueheng; Muthukrishna, Michael |
| Abstract: | Visible wealth creates both prestige and envy. In some societies, prestige wins with people gaining status through conspicuous consumption, while in others, envy dominates with people concealing signs of success. We argue that these are alternative cultural equilibria that can be explained by two structural features of societies: (1) the intensity of status competition (how strongly relative status translates into payoffs) and (2) the strength of property rights (how costly it is for others to damage or appropriate others' wealth). We formalize this context in an economic model in which players choose their level of production and consumption, where consumption acts as a signal of a player's status, and players destroy others' wealth at a cost. The model predicts three regimes. When property rights are very weak and status competition is strong, the model predicts compressed and homogenized consumption (i.e., egalitarianism) and low production. Standing out invites destruction, the threat of which serves as a leveling mechanism. This first regime is consistent with many hunter-gatherer societies. As property rights increase, a second regime emerges with most individuals concealing wealth to some degree. This second regime is consistent with societies where evil eye beliefs are common; evil eye may be a culturally evolved mechanism that encourages wealth shielding. When property rights are strong, conspicuous consumption becomes the dominant strategy. This effect increases when the intensity of status competition is stronger, as long as property rights are strong. This third regime is consistent with many highly developed societies. We derive testable predictions linking institutions and competitive intensity to (a) display versus concealment, (b) visible inequality, and (c) productive versus destructive competition, and evaluate them against existing evidence. |
| Keywords: | evil eye beliefs;egalitarianism;conspicuous consumption;zero-sum competition;formal modeling |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140808 |
| By: | Nowzohour, Laura; Noailly, Joëlle |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether environmental policy uncertainty undermines clean-technology investment in the United States by weakening policy-induced investment incentives. Using quarterly project-level data on U.S. greenfield investments from 2007Q1 to 2019Q1, combined with novel news-based indices that separately measure environmental policy salience and environmental policy uncertainty, we find that policy uncertainty substantially offsets the positive investment effects of environmental policy. At the aggregate level, a one-standard-deviation increase in environmental policy uncertainty eliminates roughly 75% of the policy-induced increase in the number of cleantech projects and around 50% of the increase in capital expenditure. The deterrence effect is substantially stronger for foreign than for domestic investors, consistent with greater informational frictions facing cross-border capital. These effects persist for at least two years following an uncertainty shock and are corroborated by country- and firm-level analyses, though results for capital expenditure are less robust at disaggregated levels. The findings imply that policy credibility is a first-order determinant of clean investment: an environmental policy framework that is ambitious but perceived as unstable may fail to mobilize the capital it is designed to attract. JEL Classification: Q58, F21, F23, E22 |
| Keywords: | environmental policy, foreign direct investment, green investment, policy uncertainty |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263278 |
| By: | Schuyler Louie; John Mondragon; Rami Najjar; Johannes F. Wieland |
| Abstract: | Most housing research relies on a single-margin model where a single housing price relates to a single housing quantity. We generalize this approach by introducing income inequality and housing quality. Two important challenges to studying housing supply (and demand) emerge: First, there is no singular housing supply function, instead there is a continuum of unit-supply functions indexed by quality. This implies that supply elasticity estimates are local average treatment effects (LATEs), not structural elasticities. Second, spillovers common in spatial settings may preclude even the LATE interpretation of estimates, which are instead local general equilibrium objects. Critically, these issues cannot be bypassed by using the land share of value to measure supply constraints as it is not even a diagnostic for supply constraints in the standard model. We suggest that understanding heterogeneity in incomes and housing services quality is likely critical to understanding housing markets more generally. |
| Keywords: | quality; inequality; housing markets |
| Date: | 2026–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:103704 |
| By: | Kuusi, Tero; Lähdemäki, Sakari |
| Abstract: | Abstract We study Europe’s post-2008 productivity slowdown using novel total factor productivity (TFP) measures that follow production beyond individual industries in global value chains (GVCs). We collect a newset of stylized facts: (1) the slowdown is broad-based, with productivity growth weakening both in final-producer industries and in upstream industries; (2) the staggered entry into force of bilateral investment treaties with China is followed by higher value-chain TFP and greater business-intangible investment; while (3) the gains associated with technology intangibles are weak. We use these facts to discipline a stylized two-region general-equilibrium model with business capabilities, technology-related knowledge, and cross-border knowledge spillovers. The calibration supports a two-stage interpretation of Europe’s experience: (1) sizeable initial integration gains because accumulated business capabilities convert market access into productivity, and (2) later losses when technology improvements are converted into productivity more effectively elsewhere. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, Intangibles, Productivity, Globalization |
| JEL: | F60 O47 L16 O14 E22 |
| Date: | 2026–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:146 |
| By: | Thomas Dee; Chloe R. Gibbs; Rebecca Margolit-Chan; Lillian Morrell; James X. Sullivan |
| Abstract: | Timely high school completion is a critical step in successful transitions to post-secondary schooling and the labor market. This randomized controlled trial, deployed in two urban, disadvantaged school districts, tests the effectiveness of a mature and comprehensive student-support program on an unusually large scale (n=2, 528). While overall effects on graduation rates are small and statistically insignificant, exploratory analyses reveal notable variation by site and over time, mirroring heterogeneity in treatment timing and program implementation. These findings highlight the challenges of scaling interventions and raise concerns about generalizing results from small-scale, single-site evaluations. |
| JEL: | I24 I26 I31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35558 |
| By: | Miriam Hortas-Rico; Jorge Onrubia |
| Abstract: | En esta nota se presenta la estadística anual correspondiente a 2023 de la base de datos sobre la Renta personal de los municipios españoles y su distribución. Con esta nueva incorporación, la serie difundida por Fedea cubre veinte ejercicios completos, desde 2004 hasta 2023. La disponibilidad de una serie de esta longitud permite valorar tanto la evolución coyuntural más reciente como los cambios acumulados en el nivel y en la distribución de la renta personal dentro de los municipios. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-26 |
| By: | Jiayu Li |
| Abstract: | KellyBoost is a single multi-output XGBoost model whose softmax output is the portfolio: with y the vector of per-asset holding-period returns, the training loss is - log(1 + w y), the negative log growth rate, so the fitted model is the growth-optimal (Kelly) allocation conditioned on the features. The objective is exact rather than a surrogate: we derive the gradient, the analytic diagonal Hessian and the full Hessian in closed form, verify them by finite differences, and ship a dependency-free reference engine. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.23393 |
| By: | Helm, Annalise |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404507 |
| By: | Koundouros, Andreas; Nautz, Dieter |
| Abstract: | Inflation misperceptions of consumers complicate the conduct and communication of monetary policy and can undermine the credibility of the central bank's inflation target. This paper empirically investigates the determinants of inflation misperceptions by extending a rational inattention model to incorporate distorted signals from salient prices. We estimate the model using rich micro-level panel data for the euro area drawn from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that consumers misperceive inflation both because they are inattentive to inflation and because they overweight food price inflation relative to headline inflation. In contrast, distortions stemming from energy prices are not significant. Financially literate consumers exhibit lower inflation misperceptions and greater attention to inflation, while women have more pronounced inflation misperceptions and place larger weights on salient prices. Finally, we show that attention to inflation is higher and misperceptions are lower in response to inflationary than to disinflationary news. |
| Keywords: | Inflation misperceptions, rational inattention, salient prices, inflationary news, financial literacy, gender differences, ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| JEL: | E31 E58 E71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:343039 |
| By: | Petri Böckerman; Ohto Kanninen; Sami Jysmä |
| Abstract: | This pre-analysis plan outlines the research design for estimating the causal effects of the Finnish guarantee pension—a minimum income floor for pension recipients—on mortality, morbidity, and prescription drug use. The 2011 reform generated a discrete change in the slope of the benefit schedule for low-income pensioners, creating a plausibly exogenous source of variation. We exploit this reform using a Difference-in-Kinks (DiK) estimator that compares changes in outcome gradients around the policy kink before and after the reform. The analysis is conducted using comprehensive Finnish administrative data from population registers, hospital records, prescription drug reimbursement databases, and pension and tax registers. Primary outcomes include all-cause mortality, inpatient hospital days, and annual prescription drug co-payments. Secondary analyses focus on alcohol-related mortality and mental-health-related medication use. We further examine the potential heterogeneity of the effects by gender. The PAP pre-specifies the hypotheses, outcome definitions, sample restrictions, identification assumptions, and estimation equations. All analyses will be implemented without additional controls, and all deviations from the pre-analysis plan will be transparently documented in the final study. |
| Keywords: | Guarantee pension, Difference-in-Kinks (DiK), Mortality, Morbidity |
| JEL: | I18 I38 H55 J14 C21 |
| Date: | 2025–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:357 |
| By: | Sophie Mignon (MRM-ORGA - Montpellier Research in Management - Organisations - MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier); George Aboueldahab (EDC - EDC Paris Business School); Magali Aubert (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Ysé Commandré (UTTOP - Université de Technologie Tarbes Occitanie Pyrénées - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Micheline Mazawan Coulibaly (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Romane Guillot-Pelliet (AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - EI Purpan - Ecole d'Ingénieurs de Purpan - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Anne Mione (MRM-ORGA - Montpellier Research in Management - Organisations - MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier); Florent Saucède (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Jan Smolinski (Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | In an environment where markets are shaped by political dynamics and controversies described as 'ordinary consequences' (Geiger et al., 2014), there is a growing propensity to resort to digital tools, which are frequently imbued with 'technological solutionism' (Vigouroux-Zugasti, 2018). The advent of digital technologies generates promises regarding their ability to contribute to the improvement of a variety of economic sectors, including agriculture and food. These tools are often presented as powerful vectors for empowerment, transparency, and disintermediation (Jouanjean, 2019). From simple matchmaking to the complex management of Big Data or secure transactions, the expectations placed upon these techno logies are manifold and diverse. However, concrete experience reveals a reality that is often more nuanced, if not contrasted, where initial promises collide with technical, social, economic and governance challenges (Pandey et al., 2022). This chapter proposes to explore this tension between the expectations raised by digital tools as intermediation instruments in the agricultural and food sectors and the realities observed through several studies funded or labelled by #DigitAg, alongside an analysis of recent literature. Digitalising intermediation in agriculture: which tools? which challenges?The toolsThe agricultural and food sectors have witnessed the emergence of a diversity of digital tools aimed at facilitating the ways in which actors exchange and coordinate. The #DigitAg social science PhD research projects mentioned in this chapter primarily focused on three tools: digital platforms, data platforms and blockchain technology.Digital platforms create interfaces that facilitate interactions between different types of actors (Chen et al., 2022). While food platforms organise transactions between farmers and their clients (Chiffoleau et al., 2018), data platforms concentrate their solutions |
| Abstract: | Chapter 7 of 2nd part of the book: Processes, practices, and instruments: understanding the multiple dimensions of agricultural digitalisation |
| Date: | 2026–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05732547 |
| By: | Canaan, Serena (Simon Fraser University); Fischer, Stefanie (Monash University); Mouganie, Pierre (Simon Fraser University); Schnorr, Geoffrey (U.S. Military Academy at West Point) |
| Abstract: | Institutional rules that appear neutral can produce unequal outcomes when applied to students who differ in how they respond to them. We study this in the context of academic probation, a policy used by nearly every U.S. college to warn students whose grades fall below a fixed threshold that continued enrollment is conditional on improvement. To do so, we draw on student records from a large California public university, linked to state administrative earnings data. We identify the causal effects of probation using a regression discontinuity design comparing students who narrowly scored above the cutoff to those who just missed it. We find that probation raises dropout, lowers degree completion, and reduces earnings at ages 24 to 31 among low-income students, while high-income students are largely unaffected. We then contrast the standard policy with an alternative, at the same institution, which incorporates a coaching program. We find that the alternative policy eliminates these effects and improves academic performance. Taken together, these results suggest that the design of institutional policies is critical for closing socioeconomic gaps in degree completion. |
| Keywords: | academic probation, higher education, socioeconomic disparities, regression discontinuity, coaching program |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 J24 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18896 |
| By: | Hafez Ghanem |
| Abstract: | Africa is facing a massive electricity deficit that is impacting its economic and social development, and its ability to catch up with the rest of the world. It is imperative that the continent increase its electricity production to connect the 600 million people who are currently without access and to improve the quality of service for the millions who are suffering from frequent blackouts and load-shedding. Economic development in the 21st century will crucially depend on the digital economy and on artificial intelligence (AI), and both are big consumers of electricity. The last decade has seen major advances in nuclear technology and the development of small modular reactors (SMRs). Recently the World Bank has changed its policy to allow it to finance nuclear energy projects in developing countries. This policy brief examines whether those developments are an opportunity for Africa. Are SMRs the solution to Africa’s electricity problem? The policy brief is divided into six sections. After this introduction, section 2 describes Africa’s electricity deficit and its impact on the continent’s development. Section 3 explains why Africa needs more mini grids. Section 4 describes the evolution of SMR technology. Section 5 compares the costs and benefits of nuclear energy using SMRs to the cost and benefit of renewables and of natural gas. Section 6 concludes by trying to answer the question of whether Africa should go full speed toward adopting SMR technology. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb37_26 |
| By: | Gurung, Nirmal |
| Abstract: | Nepal has made impressive gains in reducing maternal deaths in the last 25 years. The maternal mortality ratio dropped from 539 to 151 deaths per 100, 000 live births between 1996 and 2022. During the same period, skilled birth attendance rose from 9% to 77% and institutional delivery from 8% to 79%. Alongside these improvements have been major reforms in the health system, especially decentralization. The Local Self-Governance Act of 1999 assigned local bodies responsibility of health facilities. In 2015, the Constitution of Nepal established a federal system with 753 local governments responsible for basic health services. This case study explores the role of decentralization in improving maternal health outcomes in Nepal. It draws on data from national demographic and health surveys, policy documents and global health estimates. The study finds that decentralization was helpful as it increased local resources, improved community participation, strengthened accountability and supported national programs such as the Aama Program. However, the challenges remain and include inadequate local capacity, lack of clarity of roles, quality gaps and disparities between rich and poor, urban and rural and between provinces. Nepal’s experience provides important lessons for other countries looking to reduce maternal mortality rates through devolved health systems. |
| Date: | 2026–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:vst6h_v1 |
| By: | Irawan, Yenny; , Diana; Fajri, Heri; , Mariana; Aini, Zahriatul (Politeknik Kutaraja); AR, M Yazid |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the influence of BSI Mitraguna financing on the development of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Aceh, with particular attention to the role of financial literacy. Using a quantitative explanatory research design, the study focuses on active BSI Mitraguna financing recipients in Aceh. Respondents were selected based on specific criteria, including a minimum duration of financing engagement and ongoing MSME operations. Data were gathered through a structured questionnaire using a Likert scale and analyzed using the Structural Equation Modeling--Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) method with SmartPLS software. The results reveal that BSI Mitraguna plays a significant role in fostering MSME growth. It not only provides financial capital but also contributes to improving the financial literacy of MSME actors. Furthermore, financial literacy serves as a crucial intermediary, enhancing the effectiveness of financing in driving business development. These findings suggest that microfinance programs are more impactful when integrated with financial education tailored to the specific needs of local entrepreneurs. Ultimately, this study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on Islamic microfinance by demonstrating that the synergy between financing and financial literacy is essential for sustainable MSME development. It also provides practical implications for policymakers and financial institutions to design integrated financing models that not only support capital access but also strengthen entrepreneurial capacity, thereby enhancing long-term economic resilience and inclusive growth |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pr45w_v1 |
| By: | Banerjee, Souvik (IIT Bombay); Jaiswal, Preeti (IIT Bombay); Mukhopadhyay, Sankar (University of Nevada, Reno) |
| Abstract: | Using nationally representative data from the Annual Survey of Industries, we examine the effects of India’s Maternity Benefit (Amendment) Act, 2017, which extends the paid maternity leave from 12 weeks to 26 weeks on firms’ hiring decisions and gender-specific employment outcomes. We use the institutional variation of the policy mandate, which applies only to firms with 10 or more employees, to define treatment and control firms. Our results reveal that firms respond to the mandate primarily through labour substitution, i.e., replacing female workers with male workers rather than bearing the increased cost of female employment. We find a decline of 8.4% in female workers and 9.5% in female mandays worked, accompanied by an increase of 2.6% in male workers and 2.1% in male mandays. This substitution is concentrated in industries with high female employment shares, while firms in low female-share industries show no female employment effects but exhibit positive spillovers to male wages. Firm output and profit are unaffected, indicating that male workers serve as effective production substitutes. These findings imply well-intentioned maternity leave policies can inadvertently reinforce gender labour market disparities. |
| Keywords: | maternity benefit, female labour, employment |
| JEL: | J13 J33 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18888 |
| By: | Carine Milcent (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Context: The French Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG) classification has become a complex system of 2629 groups. The challenge lies in determining the appropriate number of DRGs to balance classification precision with administrative feasibility. Objectives: This paper investigates a complementary and largely unexplored question: whether the observed distribution of hospital stays justifies the current level of DRG classification granularity in France. To address this question, we propose a novel approach to optimizing the DRG classification by identifying the minimum number of groups needed to capture the majority of hospital stays. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify hospital activity concentration across DRGs in France and examine whether low-use DRGs are systematically associated with patient and institutional characteristics. Research Design: We analyzed PMSI-MCO administrative databases (18.6 million stays, 2009–2022) to derive the cut-off defining the minimum number of DRGs. We estimate logistic regression models with fixed effects to identify determinants of low-use DRG assignment. Subjects: All hospital stays assigned to DRGs in French administrative databases (2629 DRGs, 3698 DRG-fees). Results: Fewer than 500 DRGs (19.4%) code 84.1% of hospital activity—a substantial reduction from 2629 DRGs. Rare DRGs disproportionately include very severe cases (p < 0.001) and are concentrated in university hospitals (p = 0.002). Conclusions: The DRG classification should be simplified. For rare, high-cost cases, T2A should be supplemented with fee-for-service reimbursement. This study provides the first evidence-based framework for DRG simplification in France. |
| Keywords: | resource allocation, prospective payment system, healthcare financing, hospital reimbursement mechanisms |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05726862 |
| By: | Poorya Kabir; Adrien Matray; Karsten Müller; Chenzi Xu |
| Abstract: | Trade financing through export credit agencies is a key tool of modern industrial policy. We provide a theory to evaluate its welfare effects, and we study its causal impact on trade, firm investment, and capital misallocation by using the effective shutdown of the US export credit agency from 2015 to 2019 as a natural experiment. First, we show that the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has large causal effects: comparing industries exposed and unexposed to the shutdown, we find that exposed industries experience a product-level export reduction of approximately $4.49 for each $1 lost in EXIM financing. EXIM-dependent firms also experience substantial contractions in revenues, investment, and employment. Second, shutting down EXIM increases capital misallocation because firms with high marginal revenue product of capital (MRPK) disproportionately contract while low-MRPK firms are largely unaffected. Terms-of-trade adjustments and freeing capital for domestic producers do not appear to offset these losses empirically. Our results indicate that even in advanced economies with developed financial markets, industrial policy that lowers financing constraints for exporters can raise output, improve capital allocation, and generate welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | export credit agencies; industrial policy; trade finance; capital misallocation; financing constraints; exports; firm investment |
| JEL: | L52 F13 F14 H81 D24 G28 E22 G32 |
| Date: | 2026–08–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:103700 |
| By: | Louise Camus (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Nicolas O. Rode (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Svitlana Serga (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier, KhNU - V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University); Anne Loiseau (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Xiao Chen (Yunnan Agricultural University); Carole Iampietro (GeT-PlaGe - Génome et Transcriptome - Plateforme Génomique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - GET - Plateforme Génome & Transcriptome - GENOTOUL - Génopole Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées [Auzeville] - ENVT - École nationale vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - EPE UT - Université de Toulouse - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Marc Kenis (CABI Europe - Switzerland - Centre for Agricultural and Biosciences International Europe - Switzerland); William Marande (CNRGV - Centre National de Ressources Génomiques Végétales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julián Mensch (EGE - Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución [Buenos Aires] - FCEyN - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales [Buenos Aires] - UBA - Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires]); Hugues Parinello (MGX - Montpellier GenomiX - BCM - BioCampus - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier); Marija Savić Veselinović (University of Belgrade [Belgrade]); Sophie Valière (GeT-PlaGe - Génome et Transcriptome - Plateforme Génomique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - GET - Plateforme Génome & Transcriptome - GENOTOUL - Génopole Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées [Auzeville] - ENVT - École nationale vétérinaire de Toulouse - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Toulouse INP - Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - EPE UT - Université de Toulouse - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Jinping Zhang (CAAS - Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, MoA-CABI Joint Laboratory for Biosafety, Institute of Plant Protection - CAAS - Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences); Arnaud Estoup (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Simon Boitard (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Mathieu Gautier (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | Global change is accelerating biological invasions, making it crucial to understand how species adapt in new environments to improve management strategies. Genomic data provide valuable insights into adaptation through genotype‐environment association (GEA) studies, which identify genes and biological processes tied to invasion success, and through geometric genomic offset (gGO) statistics, which estimate genetic (mal)adaptation to new environments. Here, we investigate genetic adaptation in the invasive pest Drosophila suzukii using novel genomic resources and statistical methods. We use a new chromosome‐level genome assembly and data from 37 populations, combining publicly available and newly generated pooled and individual sequencing data, analysed with an enhanced version of BayPass software, tailored for such hybrid datasets. First, we identify genomic regions showing genetic differentiation between native and invasive populations. Then, using a GEA with 29 environmental covariates, we estimate the gGO between the source environments and the invaded areas, shedding light on the potential adaptive challenges D. suzukii faced during previous invasions. In addition, we estimate gGO for geographical areas not yet invaded to predict future invasion risks, and identify regions from which preadapted populations may originate. Our results reveal numerous genomic regions associated with the invasive status from genome scans. However, when considering broader patterns of adaptation to specific environmental variables through gGO analyses, we find that D. suzukii populations likely faced only limited adaptive challenges across their major invasion range, while certain uninvaded regions still remain at high risk of future invasion. Our study offers significant insights into D. suzukii adaptation and provides a practical population genomics framework to predict biological invasions, applicable to various species. |
| Keywords: | Drosophila suzukii, BayPass, biological invasions, GEA, genomic offset, local adaptation |
| Date: | 2025–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05534477 |
| By: | Marcus Buckmann (Bank of England); Galina Potjagailo (Bank of England); Philip Schnattinger (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | We propose the Blockwise Boosted Inflation Model (BBIM), a boosted tree framework that decomposes inflation dynamics into predictive components aligned with an open-economy hybrid Phillips curve. Demand and supply contributions are identified by imposing monotonicity constraints, ensuring theory-consistent links between inflation and key indicators. Applied to monthly UK CPI inflation, the model shows that the recent surge has been driven mainly by global supply shocks transmitted through supply chains. We also uncover an L-shaped Phillips curve relationship between inflation and labour market tightness, with tight labour markets amplifying recent inflationary pressures. By contrast, earlier episodes saw non-linearities more strongly tied to broader slack, particularly during recessions. The model further accounts for trend shifts informed by inflation expectations. Short-term household expectations have recently displayed persistent non-linear effects, temporarily raising trend inflation and prolonging inflationary pressures, while longer-term expectations remain anchored. Out-of-sample, the BBIM delivers competitive forecasting performance relative to linear benchmarks and unstructured machine learning methods. Our approach provides a flexible yet interpretable framework that combines economic structure with machine learning for policy-relevant analysis of inflation dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;Phillips curve;boosted decision trees;machine learning |
| JEL: | E31 E37 C14 C53 |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023265 |
| By: | Aziz, Mustahsin; Elbakidze, Levan |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404491 |
| By: | Khan, Akib (Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics); Lundberg, Erik (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Aging populations and labor shortages in skill-intensive sectors have led many countries to pursue targeted policies to attract international talent. We study a migration reform in Sweden that offered international doctoral students from outside the EU an easier path to permanent residency. Implemented in 2014, the reform shortened the required period of residence from eight to four years, allowed these students to obtain permanent residency immediately after graduation, and granted their spouses a work permit during their doctoral studies. Using the European students as a comparison group in a difference-in-differences design, we find that the treated international students are 10.5 pp (18%) more likely to stay in Sweden three years after graduation. Higher settlement prospects also increase their language investments and marriage rates during the PhD. These effects are larger for cohorts that have longer exposure to the reform and for those who carry out their doctoral research in STEM. In addition, the reform raises both employment and language investments among the partners of the treated international students. Taken together, the policy increases permanent residency among international graduates as well as leads them and their families to make long-term choices conducive to integration. Finally, using a shift-share design, where we combine the reform with the pre-existing variation in the share of international students across research fields, we find positive peer effects on residency. More international students settling in Sweden increases the probability of their European peers making the same choice. |
| Keywords: | permanent residency; skilled immigration; international doctoral students; language acquisition; family formation; Sweden |
| JEL: | F22 I23 J12 J24 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2026–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_015 |
| By: | Martinez, Alex; Perona, Mathieu |
| Abstract: | Alors que les villes offrent emplois, services et opportunités, leurs habitants déclarent paradoxalement une satisfaction de vie plus faible que les ruraux. Cette note explore ce paradoxe sous l’angle du cadre résidentiel, à partir des données de l’enquête SRCV. Nous montrons d’abord que l’habitat collectif, plus fréquent en ville, expose davantage aux nuisances – bruit, pollution, insécurité, manque de propreté – et que ces nuisances pèsent nettement sur le bien-être : plus elles s’accumulent, plus la satisfaction de vie, la satisfaction résidentielle et la santé subjective diminuent. Parmi elles, le bruit apparaît comme la plus pénalisante. La qualité interne du logement compte également : humidité, manque de luminosité ou charges financières jugées lourdes sont associés à une satisfaction plus faible. L’espace disponible joue un rôle majeur, mais de façon non linéaire : les gains de satisfaction sont surtout sensibles en dessous de 40 m² par personne, seuil au-delà duquel l’espace supplémentaire n’apporte plus grand-chose. Le résultat le plus frappant tient au renversement du constat initial : une fois prises en compte les caractéristiques des logements et des ménages, vivre dans une grande agglomération devient favorable à la satisfaction résidentielle. Le déficit apparent des grandes villes, et de Paris en particulier, s’explique donc largement par les caractéristiques de leur parc immobilier, plutôt que par un effet propre du territoire ; les aménités urbaines (services, transports, commerces) compensant en partie les contraintes du logement. Enfin, nous soulignons que le cadre résidentiel se répercute, de manière atténuée, sur la satisfaction de vie générale, faisant du logement une composante essentielle du bien-être subjectif. |
| Keywords: | Bien-être, Habitat, Nuisances |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2616 |
| By: | Belinda Tracey (Bank of England); Neeltje van Horen (University of Amsterdam and Centre for Economic Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | We examine how easing mortgage borrowing constraints affects entry into homeownership. Using administrative mortgage data and cross‑district exposure to the UK Help‑to‑Buy program, which reopened the 95% loan-to-value segment in 2013, we show that first‑time buyer purchases rose sharply in more exposed areas. Introducing a new proxy for financial support – based on the gap between observed and predicted down payments – we find that gains were concentrated among households unlikely to have relied on transfers, suggesting a weaker role for family wealth in enabling homeownership. Because these buyers tend to have higher incomes, the composition of homeowners shifted toward higher‑income households. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership;credit constraints;down payment;intrafamily transfers;housing wealth |
| JEL: | D31 E21 G18 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023269 |
| By: | Mingli Chen (University of Oxford); Rama Cont (University of Warwick); Andreas Joseph (Bank of England); Michael Kumhof (Bank of England); Xinlei Pan (University of California (Berkeley)); Wei Xiong (University of Oxford); Xuan Zhou (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | We propose deep reinforcement learning (DRL) as a general approach to bounded rationality in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Agents are represented by deep artificial neural networks and learn to maximise their intertemporal objective function by interacting with an a priori unknown environment. Applying this approach to a model from the adaptive learning literature, DRL agents can learn all equilibria irrespective of local stability properties. However, learning is slow and may be unstable without the imposition of early stopping criteria. These findings can have implications for the use and interpretation of DRL agents and of DSGE models more generally. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence;deep reinforcement learning;adaptive learning;monetary policy;fiscal policy;multiple equilibri |
| JEL: | C14 C52 D83 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023264 |
| By: | Therese Bonomo; Krista J. Ruffini; Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach |
| Abstract: | Government transfers vary along two design dimensions that standard models predict should not matter: whether benefits are paid in cash or kind, and whether they arrive as one-time or recurring payments. We test how these design choices affect household spending using sharp changes in four pandemic-era transfers to low-income families with children: one-time food vouchers, monthly food benefits, one-time cash payments, and monthly cash payments. Linking variation in benefit timing and amount to high-frequency household scanner data, we estimate spending responses in a harmonized difference-in-differences and event-study framework. Households spend more out of in-kind benefits than out of cash transfers of similar value, and more out of recurring than one-time transfers in the short run. Our estimates produce the first internally comparable set of short-run food-store MPCs across transfer types, ranging from 0.18 (one-time) and 0.38 (monthly) for in-kind benefits, versus 0.06 (one-time) and 0.20 (monthly) for cash. The patterns are consistent with mental accounting, labeling, and forward-looking responses. More broadly, transfer design—not just generosity and targeting—is an important policy lever for social insurance and short-run demand stabilization. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 H31 H53 I38 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35698 |
| By: | M. Cecilia Bustamante; Bruno Pellegrino |
| Abstract: | We present a new dynamic model of corporate investment in imperfectly competitive product markets that extends the neoclassical (Q) theory of capital to accommodate heterogeneous, multi-product firms and a rich hedonic demand system. Our model endogenizes firms' markups and generalizes Tobin's Q to a matrix (or network) of product market spillovers, which captures how each firm's investment affects that of its rivals. We provide equilibrium existence and uniqueness results along with global analytical solutions for the firms' investment policies. We then take our model to the data for the universe of US public companies and obtain four novel insights: 1) product market competition is a key driver of aggregate investment and capital allocation; 2) shocks to firms' cost of capital generate highly heterogeneous investment and markup responses across firms, and thus impact industry concentration; 3) monopoly rents account for a large, rising share of firms' value; 4) mergers consummated since 1995 have led to a modest decline in the aggregate capital formation of merging firms, yet firm-level markup increases have been highly heterogeneous. |
| JEL: | C7 D2 E2 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35707 |
| By: | Victor Hernandez Martinez; Pawel Krolikowski |
| Abstract: | We study how mass-layoff announcements affect electoral outcomes using a newly assembled dataset of US establishment-level administrative notices from the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. A matched event study compares same-state counties with and without sizable WARN-announced layoffs. Controlling for local labor-market conditions, layoff announcements increase the Democratic-Republican vote margin by reducing Republican votes and increasing Democratic votes without clearly altering election winners or incumbent support. Effects appear across political offices, are not driven by manufacturing decline, and are geographically localized. The responses operate through turnout composition rather than vote switching and result in no policy-induced changes in transfer payments. |
| JEL: | D72 J63 J65 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:103764 |
| By: | Annie Liu; Pinghui Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the local labor market effects of mega-scale semiconductor investment, using Maricopa County, Arizona, as a case study. The county has received about $300 billion in commitments through the 2030s under the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, the largest place based industrial investment in recent US history. Using synthetic difference-in-differences, we find large employment gains, but few of these gains occur within the manufacturing sector. Semiconductor manufacturing shows no measurable net change, as hiring at new facilities offsets reductions at existing ones. The gains instead concentrate in construction—13 to 33 percent above the synthetic counterfactual—and in supply chain sectors—5 to 46 percent above—which together represent about 9, 700 and 7, 100 jobs, respectively. More than 80 percent of the latter fall into wholesale trade and technical services rather than manufacturing. We attribute this composition to the high capital-to-labor ratio of semiconductor fabrication and to a scale threshold in supplier relocation. |
| Keywords: | CHIPS and Science Act; place-based policies; Semiconductor industry |
| JEL: | R11 R58 L63 |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:103718 |
| By: | Giovanni Dispoto; Marcello Restelli; Carmine Ventre |
| Abstract: | Modern portfolio management increasingly demands a balance between traditional risk-adjusted returns and strict Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) mandates. Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches typically optimize for a single ESG provider, neglecting the significant divergence in rating methodologies across the industry and the unintuitive nature of manually weighting conflicting objectives. This paper addresses these limitations by formulating ESG-aware portfolio optimization as a Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) problem that simultaneously incorporates ratings from three distinct ESG agencies. To bridge the gap between high-dimensional algorithmic trade-offs and human decision-making, we integrate a Preference Elicitation framework using Gaussian Processes. This system enables practitioners to infer their latent utility functions through intuitive pairwise comparisons of candidate portfolios based on their Sharpe ratios and aggregate ESG scores. We systematically evaluate our framework by employing Large Language Model (LLM) personas to simulate Portfolio Managers operating under varied regional contexts. Empirical results using historical market data reveal that regional backgrounds fundamentally shift the derived preference weights. For instance, European-based personas tend to prioritize ESG alignment over financial returns, while Texas-based personas favor risk-adjusted performance. This work offers a highly adaptable framework that successfully aligns multi-objective algorithmic trading with diverse, real-world human sustainability preferences. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.02677 |
| By: | Turan G. Bali; Bryan T. Kelly; Mathis Mörke |
| Abstract: | We construct a novel stock-level measure of volatility disagreement as the cross-sectional dispersion of realized variance forecasts built from heterogeneous information sets and machine learning models. Sorting single-name delta-hedged straddles on this measure yields a long-short return of −5.14% per month, robust to known option return predictors and not subsumed by disagreement about first moments or the variance risk premium. A one-standard-deviation increase in volatility disagreement is associated with a 30% rise in option position opening. The cross-sectional patterns of our disagreement measure align with recent theoretical advances of beliefs and pricing of variance claims. Evidence on attention, ownership, and arbitrage costs is more consistent with mispricing than risk compensation. |
| JEL: | G12 G13 G14 G41 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35500 |
| By: | Yueman Fen; Wenyuan Li; Mengyi Xu; Pengyu Wei |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the investment and insurance strategies of defined-contribution (DC) pension plans under the mean-variance framework. We consider a stochastic environment with time-varying interest rates, contributions, and mortality risk. The DC plan members are allowed to decide their bond and stock allocations, as well as their life insurance coverage. Adopting the martingale approach, we derive the closed-form optimal strategies and the mean-variance efficient frontier. Further numerical analysis investigates how mortality improvements affect investment and insurance decisions, as well as the sensitivity of the optimal decision to market parameters. Our analysis suggests that longevity raises expectations of future contributions, allowing pension members to adopt a less risky investment strategy. Meanwhile, insurance strategy shifts toward early adulthood to protect the high value of future income and decreases significantly at later ages. Moreover, we conduct sensitivity analyses on the target expected wealth, market price of risk, and contribution growth. These findings provide practical guidance for pension members on investment and offer insights for the design of DC pension plans. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.04532 |
| By: | Luc Bodiguel (DCS - Droit et changement social - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - UFR DSP - Nantes Université - UFR Droit et Sciences Politiques - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | Carbon farming is often represented as a way to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. The Chapter first examines the paradoxical nature of the relationship between climate change and agriculture and the uncertainties surrounding (i) the potential for carbon reduction and (ii) the assessment of carbon reduction, sequestration and storage. It then directs its focus to the legal framework, which is indeed complex, in that carbon farming falls under two areas of governance that may adopt different approaches. European Union (EU) climate law and policy promote an accounting regime for Member States, which has the capacity to encourage engagement by private companies in the agricultural sector. Within this umbrella regime, attention is directed to two specific legislative initiatives, the Effort Sharing Regulation and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Regulation, to demonstrate both their scope and shortcomings in practice. The second area of governance of relevance for understanding the legal framework for carbon farming concerns two policy areas which are operational: the Common Agricultural Policy and the Carbon Farming Certification Policy. The Chapter demonstrates how the relevant mechanisms are based upon a contractual approach, or at least on voluntary participation. These developments indicate that carbon farming is 'on the radar' for legislators. However, they also indicate that there remain questions on their effectiveness in regulating carbon farming, which merit further research. |
| Keywords: | Common Agricultural Policy, UE Carbon Farming Certification regulation, EU Climate Policy, Carbon farming |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05724619 |
| By: | Lucas Costa (Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas - FLAR); Carlos Giraldo (Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas - FLAR); Iader Giraldo-Salazar (Latin American Reserve Fund) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a multidimensional index of geoeconomic fragmentation (geofragmentation) is developed, and its effects on international trade are examined. Using sixteen indicators spanning trade, finance, mobility, and political dimensions for 98 countries from 2000–2024, we estimate a bloc-restricted dynamic factor model that extracts a global fragmentation factor and four dimension-specific factors without imposing arbitrary weights. We then embed the index in a gravity model estimated via Poisson pseudomaximum likelihood on annual bilateral trade flows from 2000 to 2023, classifying countries into U.S.-aligned, China-aligned, and nonaligned blocs based on UN General Assembly voting patterns. We find that geofragmentation has increased steadily since the global financial crisis and is now approaching its post-September 11 peak. It significantly reduces bilateral trade, with interbloc flows contracting more than intrabloc flows do. However, nonaligned countries increase trade with both blocs during high-fragmentation episodes, likely acting as connectors that partially offset decoupling. These findings suggest that fragmentation is reconfiguring, rather than reversing, global economic integration. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomic fragmentation; dynamic factor model; gravity model; geopolitical blocks |
| JEL: | F02 F51 F60 C33 F14 |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:023576 |
| By: | Alexei Miksjuk; Yipei Zhang |
| Abstract: | As low-income countries (LICs) gain access to international capital markets, the scope for increased financing rises but so does the risk of shocks. Our empirical results suggest that, after the global financial crisis (GFC), the global financial cycle has been a significant driver of private capital flows to LICs. In particular, a stronger US dollar (against advanced economy currencies) was associated with weaker net inflows. We also find that external government borrowing in LICs had a statistically significant but relatively small counter-cyclical component, inversely related to global financial and economic cycles, complementing policy responses to shocks. |
| Keywords: | capital flows; external borrowing; global financial cycle; government loans; low-income countries |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/179 |
| By: | Somnath Chatterjee (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | The paper studies the effects of the implicit government guarantee on a sample of six major Indian banks and derives estimates of default risk implicitly ‘insured’ by the government. This is obtained by comparing two measures of default risk for a bank. The first measure is estimated from bank equity prices assuming equity holders are not benefitting from a government bail-out. The second derives from bank Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. CDS only pays out if a bank defaults on its debt. Default risk derived from CDS should capture the joint risk of the bank becoming distressed and the government not bailing out creditors. It is typically lower than the default risk derived from equity prices. The difference between the two measures is used to quantify the implicit subsidy to Indian banks. While these subsidies have declined from the levels seen during the global financial crisis and the shock from the Covid-19 pandemic, they remain non-trivial. |
| Keywords: | Implicit subsidies;contingent claims analysis;jump diffusion;credit default swap;bootstrapping. |
| JEL: | G13 G21 G28 H20 |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023258 |