|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Manuel Gloria (Bank of England); Chiara Punzo (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | We develop a DSGE model that incorporates state-dependent commercial bank capital requirements as a source of non-linearity. The presence of non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) amplifies the contractionary effects of monetary policy, primarily through the asset price channel. The amplification effect is strongest in the left tail of the GDP distribution and remains pronounced under zero lower bound conditions. The short-run vulnerabilities exposed by NBFIs contrast with their long-run benefits: a greater share of NBFI lending is associated with higher welfare. |
| Keywords: | Non-bank financial institutions;financial frictions;bank capital;macroprudential policy;monetary policy;GDP-at-risk |
| JEL: | E32 E58 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023278 |
| By: | Haofeng Liao; Xing Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an econometric framework for analysing smooth structural change in cointegrated systems following a known intervention time. We consider a vector error-correction model in which the cointegration rank and the pre-intervention cointegrating structure are identified from a stable pre-intervention subsample. After the intervention, both the adjustment coefficients and the cointegrating vectors are allowed to evolve smoothly as functions of rescaled time, which are estimated using kernel-weighted local reduced-rank methods. The analysis is formulated directly in a cointegrated VAR/VECM system, which preserves the treatment of long-run relations and short-run error-correction dynamics. By working with the decomposition $\Pi(\delta)=\alpha(\delta)\beta(\delta)'$, the method separates changes in the equilibrium relation from those in the speed of adjustment. We also provide two tests for the parameter consistency and the post-intervention parameter smoothness respectively. An empirical application to energy market, foreign-exchange, and gold-market index around the 24 February 2022 Russia's invasion of Ukraine illustrates how the proposed approach distinguishes between a discrete regime shift and smooth post-intervention evolution. The results suggest that cointegrating relation among the price of Brent crude oil, the spot exchange rate (USD/EUR), and the Credit Suisse NASDAQ Gold Price Index has smoothly changed after the outbreak of war, instead of a constant long-run conintegration system in the pre-intervention period. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.03773 |
| By: | Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | I use event-level data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) to estimate the impact of Rodrigo Duterte’s “war on drugs†on political violence in the Philippines. Constructing a balanced panel of 80 provinces observed weekly from January 2016 through June 2017, I estimate event-study and difference-in-differences models that compare drug-war-tagged fatalities against a within-country placebo—non-drug-war political violence (battles, explosions, and non-drug violence against civilians). The headline finding is that the placebo series exhibits no discontinuity around either the election or the inauguration, while drug-war fatalities show a sharp, immediate spike. The violence increase is there-fore specific to the drug war, rather than reflecting general conflict trends, ACLED source-coverage changes, or other simultaneous shocks. As a precondition for this comparison, I show that the relevant event date is the May 9 presidential election, not the June 30 inauguration. I discuss identification challenges including anticipation effects, the endogeneity of ACLED’s tagging, and the absence of cross-regional treatment variation. |
| Keywords: | Philippines; war on drugs; event study; political violence; Duterte |
| JEL: | K42 D74 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202604 |
| By: | Valentin Burban; Pavel Diev; Gilles Dufrénot; Nelson Mongeaud |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new empirical taxonomy of safe assets based on their safe-haven behavior during periods of global risk aversion. Our multi-criteria framework captures the persistent performance of bond securities, currencies, and alternative assets during episodes of acute risk-off sentiment, allowing us to construct a cross-asset ranking of safe-haven behavior by asset characteristics: global safe assets, credit-sensitive assets, and emerging assets. We find that sovereign bonds issued by G10 economies, including U.S. Treasuries, consistently exhibit the strongest safe-haven behavior. A limited set of corporate bond markets displays partial safe-asset characteristics, while gold is the only alternative asset that consistently scores highly across our safe-haven criteria, particularly during periods of geopolitical risk. We further show that U.S. Treasuries have exhibited weaker safe-haven properties since the pandemic, although this reflects a broader reconfiguration of global safe-asset hedging properties rather than a uniquely U.S. decline. We find that weaker safe-haven properties are associated with higher inflation, debt levels and scarcity of available assets. |
| Keywords: | Safe Assets, Safe-Haven, U.S. Treasuries, Asset Pricing, Risk Aversion. |
| JEL: | F31 E44 G01 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1049 |
| By: | Imane Sridi (Laboratoire LISMAD, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Économiques et Sociales Aïn Sebaâ, Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc); Lahcen Rachyq; Abdellah Labdaoui; Omar Essardi |
| Abstract: | In the era of digital transformation, technological advances are profoundly reshaping family dynamics, educational practices, and social behaviors. The widespread adoption of digital technologies, including connected devices, educational platforms, social media, and communication applications, has significantly influenced family interactions, children's socialization processes, and the transmission of values and social norms. While these technologies provide valuable opportunities by facilitating access to knowledge, promoting interactive learning, and strengthening intergenerational communication, they also raise concerns regarding their effects on children's cognitive, emotional, and social development, as well as on the quality of family relationships. This article presents an integrative narrative review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of digital technologies on childhood and family life. Drawing on perspectives from family sociology, developmental psychology, and educational sciences, it examines the transformations driven by the rapid expansion of digital technologies. The study aims to identify the main trends highlighted in recent research and to explore their implications for family relationships, educational practices, and demographic changes. It also discusses the challenges faced by contemporary families while emphasizing the opportunities offered by digital technologies to promote children's development and well-being in an increasingly digital environment. Although a substantial body of research has examined the effects of digital technologies on children or on educational practices separately, relatively few studies provide an integrated analysis that simultaneously addresses the transformations of family relationships, educational practices, and child development. This article seeks to fill this gap by offering a critical, interdisciplinary synthesis of the existing literature. |
| Abstract: | À l'ère de la transformation numérique, les avancées technologiques redéfinissent profondément les dynamiques familiales, les pratiques éducatives et les comportements sociaux. La diffusion massive des technologies numériques, notamment les écrans connectés, les plateformes éducatives, les réseaux sociaux et les applications de communication, influence de manière significative les interactions au sein de la famille, les modes de socialisation des enfants ainsi que les mécanismes de transmission des valeurs et des normes. Si ces outils offrent de nombreuses opportunités en favorisant l'accès au savoir, l'apprentissage interactif et le renforcement de la communication entre les générations, ils suscitent également des préoccupations relatives à leurs effets sur le développement cognitif, émotionnel et social des enfants, ainsi que sur la qualité des relations familiales. Cet article propose une revue narrative intégrative de la littérature théorique et empirique consacrée à l'impact du numérique sur l'enfance et la famille. Il mobilise des approches issues de la sociologie de la famille, de la psychologie du développement et des sciences de l'éducation afin d'analyser les transformations engendrées par l'essor du numérique. L'objectif est d'identifier les principales tendances observées dans les recherches récentes et d'examiner leurs implications sur les relations familiales, les pratiques éducatives et les évolutions démographiques. L'étude met également en évidence les défis auxquels sont confrontées les familles contemporaines, tout en soulignant les opportunités offertes par les technologies numériques pour favoriser le développement et le bien-être des enfants dans un environnement en constante mutation. Peu d'études proposent une analyse intégrée mettant simultanément en perspective les transformations des relations familiales, des pratiques éducatives et du développement de l'enfant, Malgré l'abondance des travaux consacrés aux effets du numérique sur les enfants ou sur les pratiques éducatives. Cet article dans ce contexte vise à combler cette lacune en proposant une synthèse critique et pluridisciplinaire des travaux existants. |
| Keywords: | Parental mediation, Socialisation numérique médiation parentale parentalité numérique pratiques éducatives, structure familiale JEL Classification : F68, Family structure. Classification JEL: F68, Educational practices, Digital parenting, I21, K36 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Digital socialization, pratiques éducatives, parentalité numérique, médiation parentale, Socialisation numérique, K36, K36 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Digital socialization Parental mediation Digital parenting Educational practices Family structure. Classification JEL: F68, K10, K00 |
| Date: | 2026–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05719048 |
| By: | Jeonggyu Huh; Yeoneung Kim; Seungwon Jeong |
| Abstract: | We develop simulation-based policy iteration for continuous-time portfolio choice with predictable returns and convex constraints. Each outer step re-evaluates a fixed-latent OL-BPTT adjoint after deployment and solves the constrained update. Shifted-adjoint cancellation controls the adjoint--HJB Hamiltonian-gradient discrepancy by the policy-improvement residual. For CRRA portfolios, exact HJB policy iteration identifies the optimal reduced value factor, while population OL-BPTT iteration converges globally under an occupation-measure relative-error condition. A theorem-matched audit yields a maximal 95% upper endpoint of 0.074 against the required 0.75 threshold. In a three-factor, fifty-asset design, current-policy re-evaluation outperforms matched pooled refinement under both evaluation laws. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.17808 |
| By: | Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the pass-through of world oil price innovations to Philippine fuel prices and headline CPI, and decomposes total CPI pass-through into a fuel-basket component and a residual non-fuel component. Using a structural VAR and 25 years of monthly pump price data, I find that a 10 percentage point increase in year-on-year oil price growth is associated with about a 4.9 percentage point increase in gasoline price growth and a 6.6 percentage point increase in diesel price growth at 12 months, while the corresponding effect on headline CPI inflation is about 0.65 percentage points. The residual non-fuel component accounts for the larger share of the CPI response, though its estimated magnitude is somewhat sensitive to the estimation method. Results are robust to extensions with the exchange rate and rice prices, local projections with HAC inference, alternative data transformations, sub-period splits around the TRAIN Law, and an alternative pump price series. |
| Keywords: | oil price pass-through; consumer prices; structural VAR; Philippines |
| JEL: | E31 Q43 C32 F31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202603 |
| By: | Alexander S. Ushakov; Yury N. Berdinsky |
| Abstract: | We apply the Henstock--Kurzweil (HK) gauge integral to the Black--Scholes model of option pricing and obtain the European call price directly from a Gaussian cylindrical kernel, without stochastic calculus. Under the risk- neutral measure, the log-price is a Brownian motion with drift nu = r - sigma^2/2. Its transition density is the Gaussian kernel G_t(x, y) = (2 pi sigma^2 t)^{-1/2} exp( - (y - x - nu t)^2 / (2 sigma^2 t) ). We give a machine-checked formalization in Lean 4 / Mathlib of the following: the Chapman--Kolmogorov (semigroup) property, the fact that G_t is a probability density, strong continuity of the pricing operator, the closed-form price C = S_0 N(d_1) - K e^{-rT} N(d_2) with the standard normal CDF N, and the exactness of the drift--diffusion Chernoff splitting at every level. The entire proof is "sorry"-free and depends only on propext, Classical.choice, and Quot.sound. Digital and barrier options are treated as further examples, illustrating the universality of the method, and we show that the construction is compatible with the classical Ito calculus in the continuum limit. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.19223 |
| By: | Adorno, Giuseppe; Schubart, Constantin |
| Abstract: | Evolving customer expectations and increasing pressure for efficiency are accelerating the integration of generative artificial intelligence into customer services. This paper examines the perception and acceptance of AI-supported communication within the particularly trust-sensitive asset management industry. Based on an online survey incorporating a vignette experiment, the study analyzes perceived service quality, trust, and inteded use in this context. The findings indicate that AI-generated responses are perceived as equivalent in quality or slightly better than human-generated responses in certain dimensions. At the same time a preference for human operated channels seems to persist. The sample reveals different user segments ranging from digitally inclined and independent decision-makers to more traditionally oriented clients. These groups require differentiated implementation strategies. Accordingly, the primary challenge for financial service providers lies less in the technological capabilities of generative systems than in overcoming a trust- and context-dependent acceptance gap. A sustainable deployment of AI in customer service therefore does not call for a one-size-fits-all solution. This study recommends aligning the implementation with an analysis of the company's own customer structure and their individual needs, and gradually adapting the business process landscape to the new technology. |
| Keywords: | Generative Artificial Intelligence, AI-Supported Customer Service, Perceived Service Quality, Trust in AI-Systems, Technology Acceptance Models, Asset-Management |
| JEL: | G23 O33 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:342561 |
| By: | Abderrahim Roukaa (Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales – Agdal Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc); Karima Ghazouani (Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales – Agdal Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | Although financial technologies, or FinTech, are widely recognized for their potential to improve access to financial services in emerging markets, the structural mechanisms through which an ecosystem transforms this technological promise into effective financial inclusion remain insufficiently understood. This issue is particularly relevant in North Africa, where institutional frameworks are undergoing rapid transformation, while academic research on this topic remains relatively limited. This article addresses this gap by developing an integrative and multilevel conceptual framework that articulates six core constructs, ranging from the regulatory environment to the socio-economic impact. Drawing on a theoretical synthesis grounded in four foundational streams: the FinTech ecosystems, open innovation, financial inclusion, and ecosystem theory particularly through the contributions of Lee and Shin (2018), Chesbrough (2003), Sarma and Pais (2011), and Adner (2017), the proposed model positions open innovation as a central mediating mechanism. It represents the conceptual missing link through which the meso-level structure of the ecosystem is converted into effective technological development. Anchored in Morocco's paradoxical institutional landscape, characterized by relatively robust financial infrastructure, persistent financial exclusion, and a strong predominance of cash-based payments, the proposed framework formulates nine testable research propositions. The contribution of this article is threefold. First, it bridges two theoretical perspectives that are often examined separately: the ecosystem approach and open innovation. Second, it brings the still underexplored North African context into contemporary debates on FinTech and financial inclusion. Third, it proposes an original conceptual model that can be operationalized and empirically tested in future research, particularly through partial least squares structural equation modeling, or PLS-SEM. |
| Abstract: | Bien que les technologies financières (FinTech) soient reconnues pour leur potentiel à améliorer l'accès aux services financiers dans les marchés émergents, les mécanismes structurels par lesquels un écosystème convertit cette promesse technologique en inclusion réelle demeurent une « boîte noire ». Cette interrogation est particulièrement pertinente en Afrique du Nord, où les cadres institutionnels connaissent des transformations rapides, tandis que les travaux académiques consacrés à cette question restent relativement limités. Cet article comble ces lacunes en développant un cadre conceptuel intégrateur multiniveaux qui articule six construits cardinaux, de l'environnement réglementaire à l'impact socio-économique. Mobilisant une démarche de synthèse théorique adossée à quatre courants séminaux (Lee & Shin, 2018 ; Chesbrough, 2003 ; Sarma & Pais, 2011 ; Adner, 2017), notre modèle positionne l'innovation ouverte comme le mécanisme médiateur crucial, le chaînon manquant qui convertit la structure méso de l'écosystème en développement technologique effectif. Ancré dans le paysage institutionnel paradoxal du Maroc caractérisé par des infrastructures solides, mais une exclusion persistante et une forte prédominance de la culture de cash, le cadre formalise neuf propositions de recherche testables. La contribution de cet article est triple. Premièrement, il rapproche deux perspectives théoriques souvent traitées séparément: l'approche par les écosystèmes et celle de l'innovation ouverte. Deuxièmement, il inscrit le cas nord-africain, encore peu étudié, dans les débats contemporains sur les FinTechs et l'inclusion financière. Troisièmement, il propose un modèle conceptuel susceptible d'être testé empiriquement au moyen de la modélisation par équations structurelles selon l'approche PLS-SEM pour les futures recherches empiriques. |
| Keywords: | emerging markets., conceptual framework, financial inclusion, open innovation, FinTech ecosystem, marchés émergents, cadre conceptuel, inclusion financière, innovation ouverte, écosystème FinTech, écosystème FinTech innovation ouverte inclusion financière cadre conceptuel marchés émergents. Classification JEL : G21 G23 G28 O31 O33 O55 FinTech ecosystem open innovation financial inclusion conceptual framework emerging markets. JEL Classification: G21 G23 G28 O31 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05691508 |
| By: | Lucas Arenstein; Michael Kastoryano |
| Abstract: | This paper considers European multi-asset option pricing under L\'evy and affine characteristic-function models. The main obstruction is the curse of dimensionality: direct multidimensional COS pricing forms tensor-product coefficient arrays whose size grows exponentially with the number of assets. We study and extend COS-TT-CHF, a low-rank construction that uses TT-cross to compress sampled characteristic-function tensors into tensor-train COS coefficients for arithmetic basket and min/max option pricing. Once built, the compressed representation gives fast post-setup strike-grid and selected component Delta/Vega calculations. The numerical study compares with adaptive-quadrature Fourier benchmarks, direct COS, a tensor-Fourier min-option benchmark, and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) references based on randomized Sobol points. The reported timings show a low-dimensional crossover against direct COS as the benchmark moves from $d=2$ to $d=4$, favorable timings against the tensor-Fourier min-option benchmark from $d=3$ onward, and favorable timings against the QMC common-Heston reference already at $d=2$. The reported tests reach $d=30$ for GBM and $d=20$ for VG, NIG, and common-Heston benchmark families, with accuracy, rank, runtime, control-sensitivity, and component Delta/Vega diagnostics reported throughout. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.17636 |
| By: | Shaw, Ankit |
| Abstract: | The law of cross-border insolvency is about where a company is. It has never had to ask legally what is being administered where an estate consists of cryptographic keys rather than factories or what happens when the controlling minds of a debtor are as mobile as the assets they control. In this paper, I argue that the recent cross-border insolvency reform in India, advanced by section 240C of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (Amendment) Act, 2026 (an enabling provision, whose substantive rules remain undrafted), will fail a meaningful share of the insolvencies it is meant to resolve, unless those rules are built with digital assets affirmatively in mind. The argument proceeds in three movements. First, it traces the doctrine of "centre of main interests" through its foundational European and American case law, showing a registered-office presumption that holds up well against debtors who are not trying to defeat it, and considerably less well against those who are. Second, it compares how courts in New Zealand, the United States, and Japan have answered materially the same question, whether a depositor's cryptocurrency is trust property, contractually transferred estate property, or no property at all, and reached three different answers in insolvencies with nearly identical facts. Third, it reads recent failures, including the Indian exchange WazirX's restructuring before a foreign court with no domestic mechanism for India to participate, as variations on one structural pattern that neither doctrine was built to handle. The paper conclude by proposing some concrete provisions which we would suggest that the Central Government consider as it moves forward with the process of notifying the remaining rules under section 240C – specifically, these include a legislated default regime relating to customer deposits, a COMI presumption in relation to debtors who have no other registered office, and a mechanism which enables India to be heard if a foreign restructuring results in large numbers of Indian citizens being affected. |
| Date: | 2026–08–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:mhwk9_v1 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the challenges faced by competition authorities in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) when enforcing competition law in markets affected by informality. Informal markets represent a significant share of economic activity in the region and may influence competitive dynamics both where informal firms compete with formal firms and where competition occurs within informal markets. The paper focusses on competition enforcement issues related to informality including the definition of relevant markets, the investigation of informal firms and the calculation of fines. Although informality can create substantial evidentiary and procedural difficulties, the paper identifies opportunities for competition authorities to mitigate those challenges, including the use of official datasets, market studies and institutional co-operation with organisations addressing informality. The paper argues that competition authorities in LAC should be mindful of informal markets when enforcing competition law, and can apply proportionate, pragmatic and targeted enforcement to address competitive harm involving informal markets, while supporting better market functioning and the transition towards formality. |
| Keywords: | competition law enforcement, informal economy, informal markets, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) |
| JEL: | K21 K42 L40 L41 |
| Date: | 2026–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:337-en |
| By: | Daniel R. Arnold; Michael R. Richards; Yashaswini Singh; Christopher M. Whaley |
| Abstract: | The diffusion of technological innovation depends on incentives, regulations, and firms’ strategic behaviors. We study these intersections within cardiac procedure markets following Medicare’s expansion of non-hospital facility options for treatment, enabled by clinical advancements. State-level regulations restrain federal pro-competition policy. Where market entry occurs, business stealing is concentrated among the lowest cost treatment settings, rather than high-cost hospitals––increasing Medicare spending by approximately $2.5 million. Medicare policy also generates externalities for untargeted procedures and other payers, except when hospitals and physicians are vertically integrated. Federal rulemaking interacts with and is mitigated by complex market dynamics––including in potentially unanticipated ways. |
| JEL: | H44 H51 H75 I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35645 |
| By: | Chiara Livorno; Luca Tiberti |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks are frequently associated with heightened violence in agro-pastoral regions, yet the social processes linking weather-induced livelihood pressure to conflict remain insufficiently understood. This study examines whether spatial configurations of community lineages are associated with variation in community-level conflict responses to localized drought shocks. Across West Africa (1997–2022), we combine spatial panel data on drought exposure, conflict events, and the ancestral geography of lineage ties. We find that, conditional on ancestrally connected locations remaining climatically unaffected, drought exposure is associated with a 20-percentage-point lower predicted conflict incidence in clusters embedded in extended lineage networks relative to otherwise comparable clusters with more localized lineage structures. These patterns are consistent with a mechanism whereby social and institutional linkages formed across space condition access to nonlocal support and mobility-based adaptive capacity when climatic conditions deteriorate locally but not covariately. Complementary household panel data from Mali (2018–2021) show that households linked to spatially extended lineage networks experience smaller contractions in annual food expenditures and family remittance inflows following drought shocks. Overall, the findings highlight how historically constituted institutions connecting households across space are associated with differential responses to localized weather shocks in contexts where formal protection remains limited. |
| Keywords: | Extended kinship, informal risk-sharing, conflict, weather shocks, Western Africa. |
| JEL: | Q54 Z13 D74 N47 O13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2026_07.rdf |
| By: | Emily Cuddy; Janet Currie; Elisa Jácome; Lucy Manly |
| Abstract: | By age 17, a quarter of U.S. students have experienced a peer suicide. Using linked administrative data from South Carolina and a matched difference-in-differences design, we find that exposure to a peer's self-harm death increases the probability of a self-harm diagnosis by nearly 50% and both the incidence and frequency of mental health visits. Effects on care use and criminal behavior are concentrated among white boys, and responses diverge by prior mental health history: students without a prior diagnosis increase felony offending rather than care-seeking. Deaths from assault and transportation accidents produce no comparable rise in self-harm, consistent with contagion. |
| JEL: | I12 J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35603 |
| By: | Veronica B. Bayangos (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Arno Mikhail Azcarraga (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) |
| Abstract: | Real estate crises underscore the sector’s central role in systemic risk transmission. This study provides new evidence on how real estate firms and non-bank financial institutions shape financial stability within the Philippines’ conglomerate-based financial system. Using high-frequency stock data from 2013–2025, it applies optimal candlestick spot volatility estimators and ΔCoVaR to quantify spillovers. Property shocks strongly affect both banks and non-banks, with the latter amplifying stress. Large banks remain resilient, while smaller ones show greater downside sensitivity, revealing asymmetric contagion and flight-to-safety behavior. Contagion intensifies within conglomerates, highlighting complex intra-group linkages and their implications for financial stability oversight. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 C58 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bhd:dpaper:202515 |
| By: | Kaltenbrunner, Annina; Maad, Magdalena; Mallmann, Fynn; Rehm, Miriam |
| Abstract: | This chapter builds on Robert Blecker's pathbreaking, decades-long contributions (Blecker 1989, 1998, 2013; Blecker and Razmi, 2008) which incorporate, among many other contributions, capital flows to the balance of payments constrained growth literature. We link this to the literature on wealth inequality, which is so far deficient with regard to foreign asset ownership by the Global South. Using empirical evidence from wealth surveys in selected Global South countries as well as macroeconomic data, we argue that the wealthiest groups in the Global South are likely the primary holders of international financial and investment assets, and capital flight by elites will be predominant in these countries. This tightens the balance of payments constraint both directly and through differential returns of the Global South and North. This supports Robert Blecker's argument that we need to consider how Global South economies' subordinate monetary and financial integration interacts with its balance of payments constraint stemming from current account dynamics. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:342452 |
| By: | Lamya Bouziani (laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion des organisations - ENCG Kenitra); Jalal Azegagh (laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion des organisations - ENCG Kenitra) |
| Abstract: | This research addresses the theoretical fragmentation of the crowdfunding field by proposing an integrative architecture through a theory-oriented systematic literature review. Despite its rapid expansion, crowdfunding research remains siloed across various disciplines, often lacking a unified conceptual framework to explain the complex interactions between project owners, backers, and platforms. Drawing on a corpus of 35 high-quality studies selected from Scopus and Web of Science over the period 2016-2025, and filtered according to ABS 3+ and SJR Q1-Q2 quality thresholds, this study employs a Theory-Mechanism-Outcome (TMO) coding protocol to categorize existing research into three core theoretical configurations: signaling mechanisms, social capital dynamics, and social exchange processes. The review-based synthesis identifies that crowdfunding success is not determined by a single factor but by the convergence of "Relational Validation" and "Digital Legitimacy." The proposed integrative architecture demonstrates how Signaling Theory, Social Capital Theory, and Social Exchange Theory interact to create a unique socio-technical trust ecosystem. The originality of this study lies in three contributions: a theoretical reclassification of the crowdfunding literature through the TMO framework, an integrative multi-level conceptual architecture, and a structured research agenda addressing unresolved tensions and underexplored institutional contexts, particularly in emerging economies. This framework provides a contextsensitive understanding of how intangible assets are converted into financial credibility in the digital age, especially within environments characterized by institutional voids. |
| Keywords: | Crowdfunding |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05671913 |
| By: | Balestri, Sara; Crippa, Andrea; Pieroni, Luca |
| Abstract: | This paper examines food-security dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa using a Hidden Markov Model and harmonized LSMS-ISA panel data for Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria across four survey waves. We model household dietary diversity as an observed indicator of an underlying food-security regime and study how early drought exposure shapes transitions between latent states. Climate stress is measured using an early drought-warning indicator based on the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Model selection identifies two regimes based on low and high dietary diversity. Transitions are strongly asymmetric: households in the high-diversity state show high persistence, with a probability of 0.92 of remaining there, whereas one in three food-insecure households fails to transition upward, pointing to a structurally disadvantaged subset requiring targeted intervention. Early drought exposure is associated with a 9.8 percentage-point lower probability of belonging to the high-diversity state. Female-headed households are 5.9 percentage points less likely to belong to that state, whereas urban households are 20.6 percentage points more likely. The results are robust to different estimators, alternative SPEI accumulation periods, a drought-onset indicator, crop-adjusted drought exposure, and an alternative binary HDDS outcome defined relative to the country-specific median. Subnational estimates reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in drought effects. The findings support food policies that link early-warning systems to adaptive safety nets, rural market access, and geographically targeted interventions. |
| Keywords: | Food security, Latent variable, Climate change, Drought, Africa |
| JEL: | C33 I32 O1 Q18 |
| Date: | 2026–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129681 |
| By: | Dan Anderberg; Jesper Bagger; V. Bhaskar; Tanya Wilson |
| Abstract: | We develop an identification strategy for equilibrium matching models with latent traits and apply it to the 1972 Raising of the School-Leaving Age (RoSLA) reform in England and Wales. Our identification exploits the RoSLA-induced discontinuity in the distribution of qualifications to disentangle the contributions of qualification and ability to marital surplus. Both are valued and are complements in the marital surplus function. Ability increases the probability of ever marrying while basic qualification attainment does not. Hence, the observed gap in marriage rates between basic qualified and unqualified individuals is entirely due to selection on ability. The RoSLA worsened marital prospects of low ability individuals through general equilibrium effects. |
| Keywords: | Marriage, Assortative mating, Return to education, Ability |
| JEL: | D10 D13 I26 J12 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26202 |