|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Daisuke Ikeda (Head of Economic and Financial Studies Division, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: daisuke.ikeda@boj.or.jp)); Hidehiko Matsumoto (Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Keio University (E-mail: hmatsu.hm@gmail.com)) |
| Abstract: | Banking crises are infrequent macroeconomic events with the potential to inflict significant and lasting harm on the real economy. Drawing from the empirical literature, this paper highlights five facts on banking crises from a macroeconomic perspective. It conducts a targeted review of the literature on financial frictions and banking crises in a dynamic general equilibrium framework, and introduces a dynamic general equilibrium model of bank runs. The model's ability to account for the five facts is examined, alongside its implications for policy. Finally, the paper explores the challenges of integrating macroprudential policy into the model. |
| Keywords: | Banking crises, macroeconomic models, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:25-e-17 |
| By: | Sanny B. D. Afable (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Júlia Mikolai (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Megan Evans (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Kaarina Korhonen; Yana C. Vierboom (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Hill Kulu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Geographic proximity facilitates contact and support between ageing parents and their adult children. While previous research has examined changes in living arrangements when parents age and become ill, little is known about how proximity to children itself is associated with their health and survival. This study examines how the distance between parents aged 60-85 and their adult children influences parents’ mortality in Finland. Using novel multigenerational data from the Finnish population register, we estimate discrete-time survival models for the associations of co-residence and proximity to children with parental mortality. Co-residence with children is associated with substantially lower mortality risks only among spouseless fathers, while living close to non-coresident children is linked to lower mortality among spouseless mothers and fathers. Children’s gender plays a limited role., However, close proximity to daughters is associated with lower mortality among spouseless mothers. Our findings suggest that living close to children matters for parents’ longevity when there is no spouse to provide support. |
| Keywords: | Finland, ageing, family, gerontology, health, spatial distance, survival, value of children |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-013 |
| By: | Sule Alan |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines how schools cultivate socio-emotional skills that influence both individual success and broader social cohesion. Moving beyond the traditional focus on cognitive ability, I argue that education plays a crucial role in fostering traits that promote cooperation, trust, and long-term societal well-being. Drawing on insights from neuroscience, psychology, and economics, I explore how schools shape not only academic and labor market outcomes but also intergenerational beliefs, attitudes, and the formation of social capital. Using evidence from experimental studies, I highlight how school-based interventions can instill perseverance, enhance social learning, and create environments that curb anti-social tendencies, promote prosocial behavior—ultimately influencing the cultural fabric of society. This perspective reframes education as a mechanism for building more equitable and cohesive communities. |
| JEL: | D63 I25 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35161 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Oi (Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroyuki.ooi@boj.or.jp)); Shigenori Shiratsuka (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Keio University (E-mail: shigenori.shiratsuka@keio.jp)); Shunichi Yoneyama (Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (currently, Research and Statistics Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail: shunichi.yoneyama@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | Shadow short-term interest rate (SSR) models are expected to provide effective monetary policy indicators under the effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates. This paper revisits the SSR models using yield curve data from the prolonged ultra-low interest rate environment in Japan. Specifically, this paper compares the various specifications of the SSR models based on the Nelson-Siegel model by focusing on a trade-off between estimation performance and theoretical consistency. This paper highlights the importance of evaluating monetary policy easing effects using the entire yield curve fluctuations, rather than relying solely on SSR estimates, especially in the ultra-low interest rate environment in Japan. |
| Keywords: | Effective lower bound constraint, Shadow short-term interest rates, Nelson-Siegel model, Monetary policy indicators |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:26-e-06 |
| By: | Marcello Galuzzo |
| Abstract: | This research paper seeks to assess the extent to which the recently signed Advanced Framework Agreement between the European Union and Chile contributes to the strategic autonomy of the EU in the field of critical raw materials. To this end, the first step of the analysis consisted in working on the concept of strategic autonomy as it has been previously employed in different contexts, in order to attempt an articulated definition of the same. This resulted in a formulation comprehensive of three dimensions (access to raw materials, diversification of supply chains, and choice of a qualified partner), corresponding to a set of requirements to be ideally fulfilled by the Agreement. Each of the above dimensions was subsequently evaluated on the basis of a qualitative content examination of the provisions of the Agreement, reliable media reports, academic literature, and data from relevant statistics on democracy, labour rights and environmental standards, issued by authoritative agencies. In the final sections, the outcome of the assessment (incomplete contribution of the Agreement’s to EU’s strategic autonomy, owing to Chile’s partially inadequate environmental policies) is expounded, put into context and commented in detail. |
| Keywords: | political science; strategic autonomy; chile; advanced framework agreement; european union |
| Date: | 2025–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:eifxxx:p0051 |
| By: | Doellgast, Virginia,; Appalla, Shruti,; Ginzburg, Dina,; Kim, Jeonghun,; Thian, Wen Li, |
| Abstract: | Employers are adopting and refining artificial intelligence (AI) and algorithm-based tools in the workplace, with wide-ranging implications for work and employment. This working paper examines case studies of social dialogue on AI at national, regional, sectoral, company, and workplace levels in Europe, North America, Asia, South America and the Caribbean, and Africa. Findings are organized around three distinct ‘action fields’ in which worker representatives have sought to influence strategies and outcomes associated with the growing use of AI and algorithms in the workplace. These include the employment and skill impacts of AI, algorithmic management practices, and working conditions and rights in AI value chains. Across these action fields, social dialogue is playing a crucial role in encouraging an alternative, high road approach to AI investments and uses, based on complementing rather than replacing worker skills, empowering rather than controlling the workforce, and embedding rather than displacing new jobs in labor and social protections. Comparative findings suggest that these social dialogue initiatives are more effective where there are constraints on employer exit, support for collective worker voice, and strategies of inclusive labor solidarity. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, algorithmic management, social dialogue |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995660377202676 |
| By: | Cristina Bellés-Obrero (Institut d’Anàlisi Economica (IAE-CSIC), BSE and IEB); Manuel Flores (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Pilar García-Gómez (Erasmus University (Erasmus School of Economics)); Sergi Jiménez-Martín (Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Department of Economics), BSE and FEDEA); Judit Vall-Castelló (University of Barcelona (Department of Economics), IEB and CRES (UPF).) |
| Abstract: | Spain, with one of the highest life expectancies globally and a rapidly ageing population, faces growing challenges in sustaining its pension, healthcare, and long-term care systems. This study examines trends in health inequalities among retired Spaniards from 2004 to 2022, using eight waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We analyse five health outcomes—limitations in daily and instrumental activities, number of chronic conditions, a composite health deficiency index, mental health (EURO-D scale), and cognitive performance—and use linear regression to assess income-related gradients, adjusted for age and sex. We also compute a catch-up time measure—the number of years a poorer individual would need to reach the same level of health as a richer individual—and concentration indices of bad health. We then examine how these inequalities change over time, allowing us to explore the potential influence of pension reforms within the context of Spain’s Beveridge-style healthcare system and tax-funded long-term care provision. Our results show no clear evidence that health inequality has increased from 2004 to 2022. These findings contribute to understanding how income disparities interact with social protection systems in ageing societies and inform the design of equitable health, long-term care, and pension policies. |
| Keywords: | transportation, housing prices, within cities |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2602 |
| By: | Sri Susilawati Islam ("Industrial Engineering Department, Sampoerna University, Raya Pasar Minggu Street, 12780, South Jakarta, Indonesia" Author-2-Name: Arum Githa Putri Author-2-Workplace-Name: Visual Communication Design Department, Sampoerna University, Raya Pasar Minggu Street, 12780, South Jakarta, Indonesia Author-3-Name: Kenny Fernando Author-3-Workplace-Name: Accounting Department, Sampoerna University, Raya Pasar Minggu Street, 12780, South Jakarta, Indonesia Author-4-Name: Antonius Siahaan Author-4-Workplace-Name: Accounting Department, Sampoerna University, Raya Pasar Minggu Street, 12780, South Jakarta, Indonesia Author-5-Name: Budi Kurniawan Author-5-Workplace-Name: Accounting Department, Sampoerna University, Raya Pasar Minggu Street, 12780, South Jakarta, Indonesia Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Unemployment is a major issue in developing countries, including Indonesia, particularly among young people aged 15–24. One government initiative to address this is the Early-Stage Independent Workers (Tenaga Kerja Mandiri Pemula, TKMP) program by the Ministry of Manpower, which provides business mentoring and support to first-time entrepreneurs. Methodology - However, the program's effectiveness remains debated, as the needs of young entrepreneurs vary widely and are often unmet by general training and support structures. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing the success of TKMP participants, using quantitative and qualitative methods. Findings - The analysis employed descriptive statistics and linear regression to examine the impact of five independent variables, such as business capital, business location, brand, promotion, and entrepreneurial commitment, on business success. Using linear regression, the results indicate that Business Promotion has the strongest influence on business success, with a coefficient of 0.338, followed by Entrepreneurial Commitment at 0.201 and Business Location at 0.139. Conversely, business capital and brand identity had no statistically significant impact on business success. Novelty - However, other factors such as motivation, marketing skills, networking capabilities, and geographical conditions demonstrated notable contributions to entrepreneurial performance. The primary challenges identified in the program include bureaucratic complexity in the fund-disbursement process and participants' limited understanding of the program's operational mechanisms. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Linear factors, Success factors, TKMP, young entrepreneurs |
| JEL: | L26 M13 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber277 |
| By: | Andre Lucas (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Yicong Lin (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) test for the null of constant parameters against the alternative of score-driven parameter dynamics. Score-driven models have been widely used in the literature to capture time variation in parameters across a diverse range of both continuous and discrete, univariate and multivariate time series models, with or without random regressors. A formal testing procedure, however, is lacking thus far. Our QLR test addresses two key challenges: (i) parameters may lie on the boundary of the parameter space, and (ii) nuisance parameters are not identified under the null. The test statistic’s non-standard asymptotic distribution takes a simple form that only depends on the specified parameter space and is invariant to the specific formulation of the score-driven model and its degree of nonlinearity. Consequently, the asymptotic distribution applies to a wide range of score-driven models and can easily be simulated to conduct inference. We illustrate the new test using several models from the score-driven literature and show that the limiting distribution provides an adequate approximation for inference in finite samples. |
| Keywords: | parameter constancy, score-driven models, quasi-likelihood ratio test, parameters on the boundary, nonidentification |
| JEL: | C10 C12 C32 |
| Date: | 2025–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250063 |
| By: | Hanjo Odendaal; Monique Reid; Pierre Siklos |
| Abstract: | Inflation expectations surveys are an essential tool for monetary policy, especially within an inflation-targeting policy framework. |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11103 |
| By: | Jin, Yan,; Charpe, Matthieu,; Mei, Yang,; Li, Zeshuo, |
| Abstract: | This study presents the first high-resolution (0.005°) gridded labor market data, generated by downscaling district-level census data for Ghana using random forest algorithms and remote sensing. It addresses the lack of spatially disaggregated labor market data by mapping 17 employment categories—including age, gender, skills, status, sectors, unemployment, and NEET. Auxiliary data (64 variables) such as land cover, nighttime lights, infrastructure, and points of interest are integrated to capture demographic, economic, and participation factors. The model achieves high accuracy (R2 > 90% for most categories) and reveals significant spatial heterogeneity, with employment rates ranging from 10% to 98% across pixels. Results highlight urban-rural and North-South divides, as well as sectoral concentrations. Variable importance analysis underscores the role of built-up areas, nighttime light, road density, and vegetation health in predicting employment patterns, with specificity across different employment categories. The methodology advances beyond traditional GDP or population gridding by incorporating labor market complexity. Findings demonstrate the potential of machine learning and geospatial data to enhance socio-economic mapping in data-scarce contexts. |
| Keywords: | labour market analysis, mapping, human geography, information technology. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995694369302676 |
| By: | Meltem Daysal; Hui Ding; Maya Rossin-Slater; Hannes Schwandt |
| Abstract: | Preschool-aged children get sick frequently and spread disease to other family members. Despite the universality of this experience, there is limited causal evidence on the magnitudes and consequences of these externalities, especially for infant siblings with developing immune systems and brains. We use Danish administrative data to document that, before age one, younger siblings have 2-3 times higher hospitalization rates for respiratory conditions than older siblings. We combine birth order and within-municipality variation in respiratory disease prevalence among young children, and find lasting differential impacts of early-life respiratory disease exposure on younger siblings' earnings, educational attainment, chronic respiratory health and mental health-related outcomes. |
| Keywords: | respiratory illness, childhood sickness, externalities, long-term human capital impacts |
| JEL: | I1 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2556 |
| By: | Fan Wu; Anqi Liu; Jing Chen; Yuhua Li |
| Abstract: | Investor sentiment reflects the collective attitude of investors towards the asset, whether positive, negative or neutral. Market information, such as news and relevant social media posts, plays a significant role in shaping investor sentiment, which influences investment decisions accordingly. The sentiment for one single company may spill over to other relevant companies which are in the same industry. The information spillover network pattern between news and social media may also differ, as they are two different media sources. In this study, we introduce a network-based transfer entropy method to measure and compare the information transmission of news and social media sentiment across the technology companies. We examine whether and to what extent sentiment information from one company can transfer to other companies, and how different the spillover effect is for news and social media. The result signifies a stronger intensity of news information flow among the tech companies after COVID-19. We also highlight the companies which act as information hubs in the sentiment network. Furthermore, we identify the companies which lead the strongest information flow chain. Overall, this study provides a novel perspective in modelling sentiment spillover under two different media sources, and we find that news and social media show a different information transmission pattern during the studied period. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26811 |
| By: | Zhang, Yumei; Wang, Jingjing; Ruizeng, Zhang; Sun, Tiantian; Fan, Shenggen |
| Abstract: | Global agrifood systems must undergo a low-carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China’s agrifood emission will continue to rise, jeopardizing its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed-methods approach combining narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterize China's agrifood system emissions across the entire value chain, (2) project carbon emissions reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple scenarios, and (3) provide lessons for other developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, emissions are projected to rise slowly to 1.8 billion tons of CO₂eq by 2060 from 1.6 billion tons in 2021, driven primarily by the expansion of livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modeling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvement, adoption of low-carbon technologies, reducing food loss and waste, production structure adjustment and low-carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% by 2060 relative to the baseline, while enhancing the carbon sequestration potential to 1.8 billion tons CO₂eq annually. The latter will not only neutralize the emissions from agrifood system but also contribute to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system-wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low-carbon transitions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397899 |
| By: | Thai Nguyen; Pertiny Nkuize |
| Abstract: | We study the problem of optimal portfolio selection under stochastic volatility within a continuous time reinforcement learning framework with portfolio constraints. Exploration is modeled through entropy-regularized relaxed controls, where the investor selects probability distributions over admissible portfolio allocations rather than deterministic strategies. Using dynamic programming arguments, we derive the associated entropy-regularized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, whose Hamiltonian involves optimization over probability measures supported on a compact control set. We show that the optimal exploratory policy takes the form of a truncated Gaussian distribution characterized by spatial derivatives of the solution of the resulting nonlinear quasilinear parabolic partial differential equation. Under suitable structural conditions on the model coefficients, we prove the existence of classical solutions to this nonlinear HJB equation for the value function. We then establish a verification theorem and analyze the policy-improvement structure induced by the entropy-regularized Hamiltonian, showing how the resulting sequence of PDEs provides a continuous-time interpretation of actor-critic learning dynamics. Finally, our PDE analysis with a semi-closed form of optimal value and optimal policy enables the design of an implementable reinforcement learning algorithm by recasting the optimal problem in a martingale framework. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.22188 |
| By: | Tablang, Solomon; Bitonio, Josefina; TOLEDO, RALPH RENDELL (Government Procurement Policy Board-Technical Support Office) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural cooperatives are widely recognized as important institutional actors in advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in agrarian and rural economies. This study examines the initiatives, services, and constraints of agricultural cooperatives in relation to the SDGs in Region I of the Philippines. A mixed-methods design was used, combining a structured survey of officers from 30 medium and large agricultural cooperatives with selected semi-structured interviews to provide context for the quantitative findings. Descriptive statistics were employed to summarize cooperative profiles, services, and SDG-aligned practices, while cross-tabulations were used to examine differences in governance, climate- and resource-related, and market challenges by cooperative size. The findings show that most cooperatives are medium-sized and long-established, with lean staffing structures and moderate asset bases. Core services remain concentrated on credit provision and commodity distribution, while higher-value activities such as processing and mechanization are less common. Cooperatives implement a wide range of initiatives aligned with multiple SDGs, with the strongest engagement observed in poverty reduction, food security, decent work, and partnerships. These contributions, however, are constrained by persistent challenges related to governance, limited access to finance, market competition, and environmental and climate risks. Medium-sized cooperatives report greater vulnerabilities in governance, environmental pressures, and market access than larger cooperatives, which, despite greater resilience, face more pronounced bureaucratic constraints. Overall, the results point to the need for profile-sensitive interventions that strengthen governance, expand access to finance and markets, and improve the integration of environmental sustainability into cooperative operations. Addressing these areas can enhance the capacity of agricultural cooperatives to contribute more effectively to inclusive and sustainable rural development and to the achievement of the SDGs. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6cd87_v1 |
| By: | Herrmann, Friedrich; Hartig, Moritz; Isenhardt, Lars; Seifert, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of the abolition of the European sugar quota in 2017 on transport times and distances between sugar beet fields and processing factories in Lower Saxony, Germany. Using parcel-level data from the EU Integrated Administration and Control System (2012–2024), soil quality information, and OpenStreetMap-based routing, three weighted regression models were estimated. Results show that transport times increased by 6–9% following quota abolition, implying higher procurement costs for sugar factories. This finding contrasts with earlier expectations of lower costs and welfare gains from sugar market liberalization. Additional factors such as ecological focus areas, maize expansion linked to biogas production, and soil quality also influenced transport outcomes. The study provides the first empirical evidence on transport cost effects of quota abolition in Germany, demonstrating that liberalization of final product markets does not necessarily generate efficiency gains in upstream agricultural input markets. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397916 |
| By: | Otgun, Hanifi; Wongpiyabovorn, Oranuch; Plastina, Alejandro; Lubben, Bradley D.; Dennis, Elliott J.; McClure, Glennis; Parsons, Jay |
| Abstract: | In February 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s Economic Research Service (ERS) updated state-level farm income estimates through calendar year 2024 and released national farm income projections for calendar years 2025 and 2026. In March 2026, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU) also released national farm income projections for calendar years 2025 through 2035 (FAPRI-MU 2026). The present report published by the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) provides an updated outlook for Nebraska farm income in calendar years 2025 and 2026, as well as preliminary projections for 2027. It intends to inform policymakers, industry analysts, and agricultural practitioners about the state agricultural sector’s expected profitability and its main drivers. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umcraf:399481 |
| By: | Sebastian Eichfelder (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Yannis Kiel; Jonas Knaisch |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag schaetzt die Buerokratiekosten der Grundsteuerreform 2022/2025 mit Hilfe des Standardkostenmodells der Bundesregierung (SKM) und qualitativer Experteninterviews auf eine Bandbreite von 3, 92 Mrd. € und 6, 50 Mrd. € (im Mittelwert 5, 21 Mrd. €). Dies entspricht 3, 38 % bis 5, 61 % des voraussichtlichen Steueraufkommens im Hauptfeststellungszeitraum von 2022 bis 2028. Die im vorliegenden Beitrag geschaetzten Buerokratiekosten betragen das 3, 6-fache bis 6, 0-fache des 2019 durch den Nationalen Normenkontrollrat (NKR) ermittelten Erfuellungsaufwandes. Damit dokumentiert die vorliegende Untersuchung eine massive Unterschaetzung der Buerokratiekosten der Grundsteuerreform 2022/2025 durch den NKR und die deutsche Bundesregierung. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mag:wpaper:26004 |
| By: | Eduardo Levy Yeyati; Virginia Robano; Emiliano Pereiro; Camila Porto; Víctor Koleszar |
| Abstract: | Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to help educators tackle persistent challenges—such as complex problem-solving and personalized mentoring—while preserving the essential human elements of judgment and empathy. Focusing on Latin American classrooms, this study explores how AI-powered chatbots can complement teachers in elementary and secondary education. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative evidence, we identify strategies to minimize gender gaps, strengthen teacher preparedness, and maximize student engagement. The study proposes actionable policies, including targeted teacher training, gender-inclusive AI adoption strategies, and scalable hybrid teaching models, as well as a blueprint for testing chatbot effectiveness. By incorporating a gender lens and a phased AI adoption strategy, our study not only outlines best practices for AI deployment but also offers empirical insights into how chatbots impact learning engagement, teacher preparedness, and student equity. Our framework serves as a guide for policymakers aiming to integrate AI tools in a way that supports—not replaces—educators while addressing disparities in access and usage. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, education, ChatGPT, complementarity, LLM, automated tutor, chatbot, classroom, teaching |
| JEL: | C9 I21 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:pp_gob_2025_35 |
| By: | de Nicola, Francesca; Tan, Shawn W.; Tang, Aaron |
| Abstract: | Industrial robots are rapidly changing global production processes, with large implications for patterns of foreign direct investments. The impact is ambiguous a priori. On the one hand, robotization may boost foreign direct investments since firms that have invested in robots increase their demand for complementary inputs. On the other hand, robotization may dampen foreign direct investments since firms have weaker incentives to outsource selected inputs and/or tasks. This paper finds that robotization at home boosts foreign direct investments, based on bilateral foreign direct investments data from 2003–21 across 65 countries. To uncover the underlying mechanism, the effect on foreign direct investments is decomposed into three components: capital per job (or capital intensity), jobs created per project (or labor intensity), and number of foreign direct investments projects. The positive effect of robotization in the source country on foreign direct investments is driven by increases in the number of projects and capital intensity, but not labor intensity. Decomposing foreign direct investments by business function reveals that this effect operates primarily through efficiency-seeking manufacturing investments rather than market-seeking activities, indicating that automation enhances firms' ability to establish complementary production networks abroad. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11362 |
| By: | McCormack, Maureen |
| Abstract: | Irish livestock systems are characterised by a predominantly grass-based production model, where cows spend the majority of the year grazing outdoors. Effective grassland management is therefore fundamental to the success of Irish livestock farming. Central to this is the strategic application of fertiliser, both chemical and organic, to ensure an adequate supply of grass throughout the grazing season and for the production of grass silage for the housing period. Nonetheless, excessive use of nitrogen (N) fertilisers poses environmental risks, with high N surpluses causing potential runoff into watercourses, thereby compromising water quality. A key metric in assessing the sustainability of livestock systems, where N inputs often exceed outputs, is Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). In this paper, the NUE trends on Irish dairy farms from 2013 to 2023 was investigated, analysing Farm Accountancy Network data (FADN) to identify key determinants of NUE on grass based systems. The analysis shows that reducing total N inputs is the most important driver, but that farm size reducing the N content in concentrate feed and innovations such as Low Emission Slurry Spreading (LESS) and the use of protected urea are also important drivers of NUE at farm level. Notably, the interaction between soil productivity and nitrogen inputs indicates that more productive soils support significantly higher NUE at comparable input levels, suggesting a greater capacity to convert nitrogen inputs into output on better land. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397884 |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Keith Kuester; Gernot J. Müller; Sebastian Schmidt; Ben Schumann; Gernot Müller |
| Abstract: | We confront the notion that flexible exchange rates insulate countries from external disturbances with new evidence for the euro area (EA) and 20 of its neighbors. Using high-frequency data, we first establish that countries with flexible exchange rates ("floats") let their currencies depreciate in response to EA monetary policy shocks, while "pegs" raise interest rates. Yet at business cycle frequency, these depreciations do not translate into insulation: floats contract just as much as pegs—not only in response to monetary policy shocks but also to other shocks originating in the EA. This result appears puzzling in light of received wisdom, but we show that it can be rationalized within a state-of-the-art HANK model and flesh out the underlying transmission channels. |
| Keywords: | exchange-rate regime, Insulation, external shock, exchange-rate disconnect, monetary policy |
| JEL: | F42 E31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12635 |
| By: | Arbaaz Karim |
| Abstract: | Aesthetic qualities command measurable premiums in traditional goods markets. However, it remains unclear whether users are willing to pay for such qualities in AI-generated text. This paper estimates the willingness to pay for aesthetic attributes in large language model outputs using an online experiment with N = 117 participants. Participants evaluated responses from four anonymized models across academic, professional, and personal contexts, rated outputs along multiple dimensions, and submitted bids for access using a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism. We find no statistically significant relationship between perceived aesthetic quality and willingness to pay. While participants systematically distinguish between outputs and exhibit consistent preferences over stylistic features, these differences do not translate into higher monetary valuation. Further analysis shows that aesthetic and functional attributes load onto a single latent factor, suggesting that users perceive quality as a unified construct rather than a separable aesthetic dimension. These results imply that, in current large language model (LLM) markets, aesthetic improvements function as baseline expectations rather than sources of price differentiation. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.05578 |
| By: | Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | economics; finance; energy economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:30907352 |
| By: | Mr. Andre O Santos |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the 2023 euro area consultation top-down stress test that focused on the resilience of 91 systemically important banks’ capital buffers as of end-2022 to macro baseline and adverse scenarios over the period 2023-25. As a result, the paper is an illustration of a top-down stress test framework with an application to euro are banks. The 2023 euro area consultation top-down stress test included unbiased dynamic panel data estimators based on Lancaster (2002) for projecting profitability components and information on Pillar 3 disclosures (exposure-at-default, probability of default, loss-given-default, expected losses). The paper also expands the 2023 euro area consultation top-down stress test by considering risk-weight functions with Skew-Normal and Transmuted-Normal probability distributions for the idiosyncratic and systemic risk factors. The results of the stress test with both distributions indicate that most euro area banks were resilient under the 2023 euro area consultation baseline and adverse scenarios as of July 2023 (publication of the Staff report). |
| Keywords: | Bank capital; Bank profitability; Capital adequacy requirements; Corporate risk; ECB analysis; ECB-Banking Supervision; Europe; Nonperforming loans; Stress test; Working capital; Transmuted- Normal distribution |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/089 |
| By: | Liepmann, Hannah,; Hegewisch, Ariane, |
| Abstract: | This working paper revisits long-term trends in occupational segregation and pay to explore how women’s work is valued in the labour market, with a particular focus on care workers and the remuneration of their skills. |
| Keywords: | labour market segmentation., women workers., female occupation, wages |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995683471102676 |
| By: | Shouyong Shi |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs an index to measure sorting in a two-sided market with matching friction. The index uses the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the matching partners for each individual and incorporates matching failures as a mass point at the lowest type of the partners. The area between this cdf and the cdf in the efficient allocation without friction represents the reduction in sorting. The sorting index is equal to one minus the aggregate reduction in sorting normalized by the amount under uniform matching. In contrast to most measures of sorting in the literature, the sorting index captures the effect of matching failures and compares the matching partner's type with the ideal type instead of the individual's own type. Relative to this sorting index, the correlation coefficient of matched types tends to over-estimate sorting when sorting is positive. The over-estimation increases sharply when matching failures increase or when the market becomes more imbalanced. |
| Keywords: | Measure sorting; Matching; Frictions |
| JEL: | C78 D83 J60 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1544 |