nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2026–04–20
25 papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo


  1. Oil, gas, pandemics, and war: the drivers of inflation By Luisa Corrado; Stefano Grassi; Aldo Paolillo; Francesco Ravazzolo
  2. Monetary Policy and the Credit Rationing Effects of Liquidity By Jonathan Swarbrick
  3. Evaluation of the Iowa RCM/RESEA Program By Michaelides, Marios; Mueser, Peter; Poe-Yamagata, Eileen; Nearchou, Paris; Ciobanu, Iuliana
  4. A Model of Leveraged Bubbles By Nina Biljanovska; Jordi Galí; Lucyna Gornicka; Alexandros P. Vardoulakis
  5. Human Capital Markets By Jishnu Das; Cauê Dobbin
  6. Thinking like consumers: How consumer representations can inform consumer research on savings By Olivier Nicolas; Richard Ladwein
  7. Ancestral Cultural Traits, Colonialism, and its Legacy By Marcello D’Amato; Francesco Flaviano Russo
  8. On Conservative Stable Standard of Behavior and Perfect Coalitional Equilibrium By S. Nageeb Ali; Ce Liu
  9. Stay, Split or Overthrow: Theory and Evidence on Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict By Esteban, J.; Flamand, S.; Morelli, M.; Rohner, D.
  10. Risk-Constrained Kelly for Mutually Exclusive Outcomes: CRRA Support Invariance and Logarithmic One-Dimensional Calibration By Christopher D. Long
  11. Decoupling Cause and Effect in Major Projects: An Exploratory Workshop Study on Complexity, Temporal Displacement, and Implications for Time Pressure By Huemmer, Matthias
  12. Optimal Supermajority Threshold for Suspending Fiscal Rules By Ryo Arawatari; Tetsuo Ono
  13. Lifting the hood of the LIC-DSF to revamp its accuracy and transparency By Graf Von Luckner, Clemens
  14. Dreaming of a home: The regional divide in housing affordability By Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen
  15. Mot des rédactrices invitées: Coaching & Mentorat : Entre universalisme, uniformité et mise en conformité By Pauline Fatien; Sybille Persson; Judie Gannon
  16. Après l’encastrement By Morgane Gonon; Hugo Mosneron Dupin
  17. When Forecast Accuracy Fails: Rank Correlation and Decision Quality in Multi-Market Battery Storage Optimization By Alessandro Falezza
  18. Intersection of negotiation and sustainability in business: review and future research By Ghazal Layeghi; Adrian Borbély; Andrea Caputo
  19. Examining the impact of differential electricity pricing on industrial development: Evidence from panel VAR By Nada Fadl
  20. Die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung: Diagnose und Therapie im Jahr 2025 By Grimm, Veronika; Haucap, Justus; Kolev, Stefan; Wieland, Volker
  21. What’s the value of a World Bank Policy-Based Guarantee? By Diwan, Ishac; Devie, Jules
  22. Country platforms in the context of rising sovereign debt levels By Kammourieh, Sima; Kessler, Martin
  23. Root-$n$ Asymptotically Normal Maximum Score Estimation By Nan Liu; Yanbo Liu; Yuya Sasaki; Yuanyuan Wan
  24. A holistic view of biomethane: Insights from a systematic review of biomethane in Ireland By Vollmer, Anita; Lynch, Muireann à .
  25. The Geoeconomics of Venture Capital An Economic Complexity Approach to Emerging Technological Sovereignty By Benjamin Leroy; Davi Marim; El Ghali Benjelloun; Arthur Rozan Debeaurain; Jean-Michel Dalle

  1. By: Luisa Corrado; Stefano Grassi; Aldo Paolillo; Francesco Ravazzolo
    Keywords: Fossil energy, supply shocks, inflation, complementarities, monetary policy, fiscal policy
    JEL: E31 E32 E52 E62 Q43
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2606
  2. By: Jonathan Swarbrick (University of St Andrews)
    Abstract: This paper studies monetary policy in a New Keynesian economy with frictional bank lending, rationalising evidence that lending conditions can remain tight despite liquidity injections. The model features a policy trade-off in which increases in banking sector liquidity can incentivise more lending by lowering the overnight rate and the marginal cost of funds, but can also incentivise less lending by compressing bank margins as interest rates approach the policy floor, worsening adverse selection and credit rationing. As a result, quantitative easing can exert a contractionary effect when the economy is away from the effective lower bound, with outcomes depending on borrower risk and the size of the programme. However, both channels raise inflation expectations, and so liquidity policies are always expansionary at the lower bound. Optimal policy features a deflation bias under credit rationing, while commitment to future accommodation eases current credit conditions and implies gradualism in quantitative tightening.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; quantitative easing; small business lending; credit rationing; bank liquidity
    JEL: E5 E44 G21
    Date: 2026–03–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:econdp:2601
  3. By: Michaelides, Marios (Actus Policy Research); Mueser, Peter; Poe-Yamagata, Eileen; Nearchou, Paris; Ciobanu, Iuliana
    Abstract: The Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program is a job-search assistance intervention targeting Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants in the United States. The program requires new UI claimants to attend a counseling session at the start of their UI claims to: 1) undergo an eligibility review to confirm their compliance with UI work search requirements, and 2) receive customized reemployment services. This study reports the results of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the Iowa RESEA/RCM program conducted in 2022-2023, a period of strong labor market conditions. The program required participants to attend regular case management and job counseling meetings for the duration of their UI claims. Results show that the program increased take-up of job counseling services and significantly reduced UI duration and benefit amounts collected, generating substantial savings for the UI system.
    Date: 2026–04–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z796a_v1
  4. By: Nina Biljanovska; Jordi Galí; Lucyna Gornicka; Alexandros P. Vardoulakis
    Abstract: Recessions that follow asset price booms accompanied by high credit growth are deeper and longer-lasting than those following asset price booms without strong debt accumulation. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with a rational asset bubble and an occasionally binding borrowing constraint that reproduces these empirical regularities. The bubble raises collateral values and relaxes borrowing limits during upswings, but tightens them when it bursts. We derive the time-consistent optimal policy and characterize simple borrowing-tax rules approximating it, showing such policies substantially reduce frequency and severity of recessions triggered by bursting of leveraged bubbles.
    JEL: E32 E44 G01
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35050
  5. By: Jishnu Das; Cauê Dobbin
    Abstract: In many low- and middle-income countries, consumers access education and health services in environments characterized by substantial provider choice. In these settings, a dense landscape of fee-charging private providers has emerged, often located near public facilities and competing for the same clientele. We refer to these environments as human capital markets. This chapter begins by documenting that such markets are now pervasive. We present empirical evidence that human capital markets share many features with conventional product markets: households choose among a wide range of public and private providers with heterogeneous attributes, and providers respond strategically to policy interventions and competitive pressures. We then assess the extent to which canonical models from industrial organization can account for observed behavior, highlighting both their insights and their limitations. Next, we examine the key ways in which human capital markets depart from standard product-market benchmarks—most notably that education and health are both consumption goods and investments, and that quality is often difficult to observe—and review empirical and conceptual approaches developed to address these features. We conclude by outlining the major unresolved questions and promising directions for future research.
    JEL: I10 I11 I15 I20 I22 I25 L10 O1 O15
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35061
  6. By: Olivier Nicolas (LARSH - Laboratoire de Recherche Sociétés & Humanités - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France - INSA Hauts-De-France - INSA Institut National des Sciences Appliquées Hauts-de-France - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées); Richard Ladwein
    Abstract: Money, and especially savings, is a major individual and collective issue. Yet, despite academic research and public initiatives, little is known about individual savings behavior and household savings remain insufficient. By re-analyzing theoretical frameworks and potential determinants of savings, we can question ourselves about the relationship to the reality of the definitions and meanings of savings as they are elaborated and structured by most literature on savings. In this perspective, we formulate several research questions to compare consumers' definitions and meanings of savings with their academic transcriptions. Our research, mixing classical content analysis and NLP techniques, highlights the differences between literature and how consumers try to save. It allows us to better understand individuals' savings behaviors and expectations. Our results call attention to the importance of renewing the analysis of savings behavior and management practices by focusing on what kind of saving decisions are taken by consumers and their conditions.
    Keywords: savings savings behavior meanings representations anticipation money NLP. Thinking like consumers, savings, savings behavior, meanings, representations, anticipation, money, NLP
    Date: 2024–07–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05580877
  7. By: Marcello D’Amato (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF, University Suor Orsola Benincasa); Francesco Flaviano Russo (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF)
    Abstract: We explore whether and how the similarity of pre-existing cultural traits between ethnic groups in the former colonies and colonizers contributes to explain the legacies of colonization. We find higher levels of income per capita, and a lower probability of a “Reversal of Fortunes”, in the territories where the local population had more similar oral traditions to the colonizers and where the dispersion of this folklore similarity was smaller. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that more oral tradition similarity, and less dispersion, are associated with more similar (de iure) constitutions established at independence, a higher frequency of a direct colonial rule, more conversions to Christianity and better education.
    Keywords: Colonial Relationship; Culture; Orality; Folklore Narratives; Historical Development
    JEL: J15 Z10
    Date: 2026–03–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:774
  8. By: S. Nageeb Ali; Ce Liu
    Abstract: We show that in Greenberg (1989)'s coalitional repeated game situation, every nondiscriminating Conservative Stable Standard of Behavior is a subset of the set of Perfect Coalitional Equilibrium (Ali and Liu 2026) paths. Moreover, the set of Perfect Coalitional Equilibrium paths itself is a nondiscriminating Conservative Stable Standard of Behavior. The set of Perfect Coalitional Equilibrium paths is therefore the maximal nondiscriminating Conservative Stable Standard of Behavior.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.09460
  9. By: Esteban, J.; Flamand, S.; Morelli, M.; Rohner, D.
    Abstract: This paper proposes a simple model aimed at predicting under what conditions on fundamentals one should expect that a conflict, conditional on occurring, takes the form of a secessionist conflict or centrist conflict. We show that the relative group size of the involved opposition group, the relative intensity of perceived cultural differences, and the time discount factor, all affect the relative likelihood of secessionist conflict over centrist conflict in a clear manner, leading to testable pre-dictions supported by the data.
    Keywords: Ethnic Groups, Preference Similarities, Patience, Secessionist Conflict, Centrist Conflict
    JEL: C72 D74
    Date: 2026–01–22
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2621
  10. By: Christopher D. Long
    Abstract: We study the finite mutually exclusive outcome version of risk-constrained Kelly optimization with explicit state prices. The market has outcome probabilities $p_i>0$, state prices $q_i>0$, terminal wealths $W_i=c+x_i/q_i$, and a drawdown-surrogate constraint \[ \sum_{i=1}^n p_i W_i^{-\lambda}\le 1, \qquad \lambda>0. \] For constant relative risk aversion utility, we work primarily in the standard overround regime $\sum_i q_i>1$, where every optimizer is necessarily non-full-support. Under the usual unique likelihood-ratio prefix hypothesis for the unconstrained problem, we prove that the constrained optimizer has exactly the same active set. Thus, in the regime where the prefix theorem is meaningful, the risk constraint deforms the funded wealth profile but does not change the active set. The support is therefore invariant across both the CRRA parameter and the drawdown-surrogate parameter. We then isolate the logarithmic case $\gamma=1$. Once the common active prefix is known, the constrained problem reduces to a one-dimensional outer calibration together with independent one-dimensional inner equations on the active states. In this case we prove existence, uniqueness, and monotonicity for the inner solves, derive a complete calibration theorem, and record the resulting structured algorithm. We treat the fair and subfair regimes only as boundary cases: full-support phenomena can occur there, so the overround prefix theory no longer yields a parallel exact description of comparable sharpness. A numerical example illustrates how the risk constraint alters the funded wealth profile while leaving support unchanged.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.11577
  11. By: Huemmer, Matthias
    Abstract: Major projects and megaprojects are large-scale, capital-intensive undertakings marked by long durations, high uncertainty, extensive stakeholder interfaces, deep interdependencies, and strong budget and schedule pressure. In such environments, failures rarely stem from a single isolated event; rather, they emerge through coupled sequences of requirements, decisions, handovers, and execution constraints that accumulate over time. A central practical challenge is that the effects of earlier deficiencies often become visible only much later, when correction is more expensive and more disruptive. This article examines that temporal separation between origin and visibility as a form of cause-effect decoupling in major projects. The empirical basis is a structured workshop with four focus groups from an international major-project organization (N = 25), covering engineering, procurement, expediting, inspection, quality, manufacturing, project engineering, scheduling, and project management. Participants mapped where the causes of project problems were perceived to arise and where their effects became visible across eight project phases. The results indicate a clear temporal asymmetry. Causes are concentrated in specification preparation, fabrication-documentation preparation, and contract-related work, whereas visible effects are concentrated later, especially in fabrication-documentation preparation, manufacturing, acceptance testing, and final documentation. The weighted phase-center of causes lies at 3.11 and that of effects at 4.39, indicating a downstream displacement of 1.28 phases. Category-specific analysis further suggests that the magnitude of displacement varies by functional role, with the strongest lag perceived in expediting and procurement, a moderate lag in project management and coordination, and a smaller but still positive lag in technical execution and quality-related functions. Drawing on a formal categorization of project states (Huemmer, 2020), the observed pattern is consistent with characteristics of a “complex” project state, in which the connection between cause and effect is not readily discernible in real time and may only be reconstructed retrospectively. The findings are therefore consistent with the interpretation that delayed visibility of earlier deficiencies may be an important mechanism in the formation of experienced project complexity, especially under conditions of schedule pressure. The article contributes an exploratory empirical bridge between complexity theory and time-pressure theory and derives implications for front-end clarification, specification governance, document maturity control, gate design, and cross-functional communication.
    Date: 2026–04–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bu9pe_v1
  12. By: Ryo Arawatari (Faculty of Economics, Doshisha University); Tetsuo Ono (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Osaka)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the optimal supermajority threshold for approving fiscal rule suspensions within a two-period political turnover model. Faced with the potential loss of power, the incumbent party aims to secure preferred expenditures by increasing public debt. To counteract this, an expenditure rule requiring legislative approval for suspension is introduced. The analysis shows that the voting threshold in parliament should exceed a simple majority, making a simple majority rule suboptimal. A stricter supermajority is necessary when fiscal expenditure rules are more flexible, as it allows for more effective responses to economic fluctuations. Moreover, while higher initial debt levels call for stricter expenditure rules, the optimal supermajority threshold remains unaffected by the debt level. Finally, as political polarization among voters intensifies, the optimal threshold decreases, increasingly aligning with the incumbent party’s preferences.
    Keywords: Fiscal rules, Government debt, Political turnover
    JEL: D72 D78 H62 H63
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2605
  13. By: Graf Von Luckner, Clemens
    Abstract: This note by Clemens Graf von Luckner aims to achieve two goals: 1. "lifting the hood" of the LIC-DSF to analyze its mechanics for predicting the risk of debt distress; and 2. Identifying the shortcomings of the current model. The first section of the paper explores the complex steps involved in transforming projections (especially of debt indicators such as external public debt in present value to GDP; or debt services to revenues) into a risk measure: how likely is this country to default? The second section reveals that a number of choices made to accomplish this task lack transparency and efficiency. Graf von Luckner proposes a more straightforward procedure that reduces the risks of manipulation and the sharp discontinuities that have plagued recent debt restructurings.
    Keywords: Sovereign Debt, Debt Sustainability, Economic Development, Low-Income Countries
    Date: 2024–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2407
  14. By: Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen
    Abstract: The rise in total upfront cash requirement has become the main obstacle to homeownership in Germany. Between 2015 and 2024, the average household needed a median of 9.37 years to save the necessary funds for a home purchase. • A substantial share of this burden comes not from the price itself, but from the closing costs incurred at purchase. For the real estate transfer tax and notary and land registry fees alone, the median saving time amounts to 1.46 years. • Regional inequality is considerable: the time needed to save for the total upfront cash requirement varies sharply across districts and exceeds 20 years in Munich and its surrounding area, as well as in other particularly expensive growth regions. • A comparison shows that high overall burdens primarily reflect high prices. In the case of closing costs, however, additional differences arise from the variation in real estate transfer tax rates across the German states. • This entry barrier hits those who lack wealth and family support especially hard. Access to homeownership, and thus also the opportunity to build wealth, is unevenly distributed across regions. • If policymakers want to broaden access to homeownership, they should focus in particular on one-off closing costs. This is a policy lever that can be influenced more readily in the short run than the price level itself.
    Keywords: Housing affordability, Homeownership, Wealth inequality, Erschwinglichkeit von Wohneigentum, Wohneigentum, Vermögensungleichheit
    JEL: R21 R31 D31 G51
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:340035
  15. By: Pauline Fatien (EESC-GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management); Sybille Persson (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine); Judie Gannon
    Abstract: Coaching et mentorat sont des pratiques d'accompagnement qui ont gagné leurs lettres de noblesse dans les organisations au point d'être devenues un élément clé pour soutenir managers, collaborateurs, leaders et entrepreneurs dans leur développement et leurs projets (Bachkirova & Borrington, 2019). Portées par des promesses de changement, aux niveaux individuel, collectif et/ou organisationnel, elles ont rapidement conquis les discours, les imaginaires et les pratiques organisationnelles. À première vue, les pratiques de mentorat sont qualifiées d'« omniprésentes » (Stoeger et al., 2021, p. 6) avec des chiffres « impressionnants » (p. 5); le coaching quant à lui est dit « triomphant » (Arnaud et al., 2022, p. 16), « fermement établi » (de Haan & Nilsson, 2023, p. 641).Cette conquête s'est faite via une extension à de multiples contextes institutionnels -des entreprises (start-up à firme globale), aux universités, établissements publics -par une mobilisation par de multiples acteurs -du coach externe, interne, au manager/leader coach, mais aussi du mentor informel au programme structuré de mentoring. Elle s'observe dans de nombreuses régions du monde, de l'Europe, l'Amérique du Nord à l'Asie, en passant par l'Amérique du Sud et l'Afrique. Si leur présence internationale ne fait aucun doute, les modalités de leur essor, leurs formes situées et leurs effets différenciés demeurent encore largement à documenter. Ce dossier thématique de Management international interroge précisément ces dynamiques en plaçant au coeur de l'analyse la dimension contextuelle -institutionnelle, culturelle, géopolitique et interculturelle -du coaching et du mentorat.Le premier article, de Paul Stokes, Ileana Monti et Marina Larios, « Le mentorat des femmes dans les filières scientifiques : un contexte à la fois agentique et dialogique », propose une étude de cas menée au Pérou dans le cadre de l'évaluation d'un programme de mentorat dédié aux femmes scientifiques. Les auteurs montrent comment contexte institutionnel et dispositif de mentorat s'influencent mutuellement, révélant des dynamiques dialogiques qui resituent le mentorat au coeur de rapports de pouvoir, de contraintes structurelles et d'espaces agentiques.
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05582142
  16. By: Morgane Gonon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Hugo Mosneron Dupin (La République des savoirs : Lettres, Sciences, Philosophie - CdF (institution) - Collège de France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département de Philosophie - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris)
    Abstract: Since the 1970s, ecological economics has promoted the materialisation of economic analysis through the lens of matter and energy flows, hybridising economic concepts with biophysical knowledge. This perspective has progressively diffused into mainstream environmental economics — a development that, at first glance, appears to constitute an ontological and epistemological victory for the embedded economy tradition. Yet re-embedding and the mobilisation of material knowledge are insufficient to strengthen economics' capacity to orient the ecological transformations that are now required. By concentrating on the economy–biosphere interface and deploying a utilitarian rationality aimed at demonstrating the economic case for preservation, materialised economics tends to render invisible the socio-economic conflicts, institutional conditions of action, and structural obstacles to reducing anthropogenic pressures. Biophysical analyses contribute primarily three types of inputs — information, prices, or optimal quantities — whose transformative reach remains limited. These limitations delineate an impossibility triangle for the discipline: simultaneously representing biophysical dynamics, socio-economic systems, and operational levers for transformation. Re-embedding renders things visible, but does not supply the conditions for implementing transformative policies. The article proposes a distinction between ecological objectives (EOs) — defined by compliance with biophysical constraints — and normative ecological objectives (NEOs), which explicitly formulate policies, regulations, or economic actors' courses of action. Material knowledge must be translated into NEOs, while economic analysis focuses on examining their socio-economic, distributional, institutional, and financial consequences. The proposed framework organises a six-step research programme oriented towards analysing the conditions of possibility for ecological transformations, rather than demonstrating their economic rationality. This reorientation refocuses economics on its proper objects — production, distribution, institutions, and conflict — while preserving the biophysical constraint, and enables the articulation of material knowledge, political decision-making, and economic analysis within a consequentialist perspective.
    Abstract: Depuis les années 1970, l'économie écologique a promu la matérialisation de l'analyse économique fondée sur les flux de matière et d'énergie, en hybridant les concepts économiques et les savoirs biophysiques. Cette perspective s'est progressivement diffusée jusqu'à l'économie de l'environnement dominante, ce qui constitue à première vue une victoire ontologique et épistémologique de l'économie encastrée. Cependant, le réencastement et la mobilisation de savoirs matériels ne suffisent pas à renforcer la capacité de la discipline économique à orienter les transformations écologiques nécessaires. En se concentrant sur l'interface économie-biosphère et en mobilisant une rationalité utilitaire visant à démontrer l'intérêt économique de la préservation, l'économie matérialisée tend à invisibiliser les conflictualités socio-économiques, les conditions institutionnelles de l'action et les obstacles à la réduction des pressions anthropiques. Les analyses biophysiques apportent principalement trois types de contributions — information, prix ou quantité optimale — dont la portée transformative demeure limitée. Ces limites dessinent un « triangle d'impossibilité » pour la discipline économique : représenter simultanément les dynamiques biophysiques, les systèmes socio-économiques et des leviers de transformation opérationnels. L'encastrement permet essentiellement de rendre visible, sans fournir les conditions de mise en œuvre de politiques transformatrices. L'article propose une distinction entre objectifs écologiques (OE) — définis par le respect de contraintes biophysiques — et objectifs écologiques normatifs (OEN), qui formulent explicitement des politiques, réglementations ou actions d'acteurs économiques. Les savoirs matériels doivent être traduits en OEN, tandis que l'analyse économique se concentre sur l'étude de leurs conséquences socio-économiques, distributives, institutionnelles et financières. Le formalisme proposé organise ainsi un programme de recherche en six étapes visant à analyser les conditions de possibilité des transformations écologiques plutôt qu'à en démontrer la rationalité économique. Ce déplacement recentre la science économique sur ses objets propres — production, distribution, institutions et conflits — tout en maintenant la contrainte biophysique, et permet d'articuler savoirs matériels, décision politique et analyse économique dans une perspective conséquentialiste.
    Keywords: Environmental economics, Ecological economics, Political ecology, Political economy
    Date: 2026–03–24
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05567895
  17. By: Alessandro Falezza
    Abstract: Battery energy storage systems (BESS) participating in multi-market electricity trading require price forecasts to optimize dispatch decisions. A widely held assumption is that forecast accuracy, measured by standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), drives trading performance. We challenge this assumption using a hierarchical three-layer optimization system trading simultaneously on frequency containment reserve (FCR), automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR), day-ahead, and continuous intraday (XBID) markets in Germany and Switzerland over 2020-2025, with real market data from Regelleistung.net and Swissgrid. We find that rank correlation (Kendall tau), rather than MAE, is the primary predictor of intraday dispatch value: forecasts above an empirical threshold of tau approximately 0.85-0.95 capture up to 97-100% of perfect-foresight revenue, while persistence forecasts with near-zero tau capture only 33%. This threshold is stable across market regimes and volatility levels, and reflects the ordinal structure of the dispatch problem. Furthermore, under reserve market constraints, FCR capacity revenue exceeds XBID by 6.5x per MW, making capacity allocation -- not forecast accuracy -- the primary driver of total revenue. In the Swiss market, hydrological surplus anomalies are significantly associated with balancing market revenue (p = 0.0005), a mechanism absent from existing German-focused literature. These findings reframe forecast evaluation for BESS operators: the relevant question is not what the MAE is, but whether the forecast achieves tau-sufficiency.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.12082
  18. By: Ghazal Layeghi (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano); Adrian Borbély (EM - EMLyon Business School); Andrea Caputo (UNITN - Università degli Studi di Trento = University of Trento)
    Abstract: Purpose: This study aims to contribute to the intersection of negotiation and sustainability. These two domains have often overlooked each other's importance despite their shared concerns with cooperation, coordination and value creation. Our study moves beyond descriptive mapping by integrating fragmented research streams and, through a set of original propositions, offers a forward-looking agenda for research and practice. Design/methodology/approach: This paper relies on a structured review of the literature, using the bibliometric-systematic literature review (B-SLR) framework. Findings: Our analysis identifies four main clusters. This work indicates a one-sided engagement: most contributions come from sustainability studies, with limited input from negotiation scholars. Highlighting the absence of an integrative theoretical lens, we suggest that stakeholder theory could bridge the domains. The findings confirm that negotiation is a constitutive process through which sustainability goals are pursued, not merely an instrumental tool. Social implications: For sustainability to move from intention to reality, it must be negotiated. Effective negotiation is vital for firms dealing with internal demands, navigating diverse stakeholder expectations and implementing key initiatives like environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices. This study provides the crucial theoretical framework needed to analyse these processes, ensuring that ambitious sustainability goals are translated into credible, actionable and effective real-world results. Originality/value: Through our six propositions, the study advances a new understanding of how negotiation and sustainability intersect and mutually shape one another. These propositions reframe negotiation as a constitutive process rather than a transactional tool, linking micro-level interactions with macro-level sustainability outcomes and offering new conceptual directions for future research.
    Keywords: Due diligence, Literature reviews, Stakeholders, Systematic review, Negotiation, Decision making, Cooperation, Collaboration, Bibliometrics, Bibliographic coupling
    Date: 2026–03–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05581311
  19. By: Nada Fadl (University of Cologne, Chair of Energy Economics)
    Abstract: Significant discrepancies in electricity pricing are observed across countries, particularly between industrial and household rates. Although the literature studies the relationship between electricity prices and economic performance, little empirical evidence exists on how electricity price differentiation between households and industry affects industrial development across countries. This paper addresses this gap by examining the dynamic relationship between industrial development and cross-subsidy electricity price structures. Using panel vector autoregression (VAR) for 17 OECD countries over a period of 25 years, the study assesses the impact of the electricity price ratio (households to industry) on industrial development. To capture the relative price structure between sectors, the analysis incorporates a cross-subsidy electricity price ratio, which reflects differences in electricity pricing across consumer groups. This ratio captures the joint effect of lower industrial production costs and higher household price incentives, thereby reflecting an industry-friendly economic or regulatory environment that supports industrial activity. The analysis is conducted for the full sample as well as various sub-samples. Orthogonalized impulse-response functions are estimated to disentangle the basic factors, such as capital and labor, from the effects of electricity prices on industrial development. The analysis distinguishes between the direct effect of industrial electricity prices on industrial development and an indirect effect operating through the relative electricity price structure. Consistent with existing literature, the results confirm the negative effect of industrial electricity price levels on industrial development. In addition, the results reveal a previously unexplored ratio effect, providing evidence that lower electricity prices for industry relative to households positively affect industrial development in OECD countries. Thus, the results indicate pricing structures that favor production firms and manufacturers. The findings further emphasize the importance of electricity price differentiation between the industry and households, particularly in the context of trade openness.
    Keywords: Electricity price ratio; industrial development; panel vector autoregression
    JEL: C33 Q43 L94 L60
    Date: 2026–04–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:022434
  20. By: Grimm, Veronika; Haucap, Justus; Kolev, Stefan; Wieland, Volker
    Abstract: In einem Impulspapier weist der wissenschaftliche Beraterkreis des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums auf die Notwendigkeit entschlossener Reformen des Rentensystems hin, damit die Rente finanzierbar bleibt. Die Reformvorschläge reichen von der Kopplung des Renteneintrittsalters an die fernere Lebenserwartung über die Anpassung der Bestandsrenten an die Preisentwicklung bis hin zur Stärkung der kapitalgedeckten Altersvorsorge.
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:340017
  21. By: Diwan, Ishac; Devie, Jules
    Abstract: The World Bank board recently approved a budget support operation for Cote d'Ivoire that includes a policy-based guarantee (PBG) to secure a new long-term commercial loan under favorable conditions, which will finance the retirement of costly short-term debt. This liability management operation unlocks significant gains for Cote d'Ivoire - in net debt reduction, and importantly, given the country's situation of illiquidity, in reduced debt service over the next few years. FDL's analysis of the deal reveals that the gains generated by PBGs can go beyond the financial savings generated by sound liability management if they can also act as a signal of creditworthiness, managing to boost debtor countries’ standing in the capital market.
    Keywords: Capital Markets, Cote D’Ivoire, Debt Swaps, Guarantees
    Date: 2025–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2506
  22. By: Kammourieh, Sima; Kessler, Martin
    Abstract: Country platforms are mechanisms for countries to deliver their own priorities for sectoral transformation with international support. If they are well-designed, delivering growth or enhancing resilience, they can support debt sustainability across both short and long terms. But the current generation of platforms has depended largely on new debt. As more and more countries start to develop their own platforms, it is vital that they fully integrate fiscal assessments into their platform design. This working paper lays out a suite of recommendations for both countries and international partners to create country platforms that support debt sustainability.
    Keywords: Country Platforms, Sovereign Debt Management, Sustainable Finance, National Ownership, Leadership
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2517
  23. By: Nan Liu; Yanbo Liu; Yuya Sasaki; Yuanyuan Wan
    Abstract: The maximum score method (Manski, 1975, 1985) is a powerful approach for binary choice models, yet it is known to face both practical and theoretical challenges. In particular, the estimator converges at a slower-than-root-$n$ rate to a nonstandard limiting distribution. We investigate conditions under which strictly concave surrogate score functions can be employed to achieve identification through a smooth criterion function. This criterion enables root-$n$ convergence to a normal limiting distribution. While the conditions to guarantee these desired properties are nontrivial, we characterize them in terms of primitive conditions. Extensive simulation studies support, the root-$n$ convergence rate, the asymptotic normality, and the validity of the standard inference methods.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.13399
  24. By: Vollmer, Anita; Lynch, Muireann à .
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp819
  25. By: Benjamin Leroy; Davi Marim; El Ghali Benjelloun; Arthur Rozan Debeaurain; Jean-Michel Dalle
    Abstract: We explore a quantitative approach to emerging technological sovereignty and geoeconomic power by assessing the relative positioning of countries with economic complexity methods applied to the structure of national venture-capital (VC) portfolios and their associated Revealed Venture Advantage (RVA) metrics. Using Crunchbase firm- and deal-level data, we map venture-backed startups to 18 emerging technology domains via a probabilistic multi-label large-language-model classifier, and construct an RVA-based country-technology specialization matrix for the 17 countries with the highest aggregate VC funding. From this matrix, we derive two eigenvector-based measures: a Geoeconomic Complexity Index (GCI) that ranks countries by the composition of their venture specializations, and an Emerging Technology Geoeconomic Complexity Index (ETGCI) that ranks domains by the extent to which specialization is concentrated among high-GCI countries. Empirically, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity Tools, and Medtech exhibit the highest ETGCI values, reflecting concentration of specialization in a small set of leading countries. The United States and Israel consistently occupy a marked "high-diversity/low-ubiquity" position and lead the GCI ranking, followed by China, France, Japan, and Germany; both country and domain rankings are stable from 2021-2024. Finally, relatedness-based simulations identify, when it exists, for each country the Simplest Single Sovereignty Enhancing Technology (SSSET), i.e., the most feasible single new technological direction associated with the largest expected improvement in relative geoeconomic positioning.
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.09187

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