|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Mr. Damien Capelle; Yang Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effectiveness and robustness of a Tax on Inflation Policy (TIP) for improving welfare at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) in a New Keynesian model. When the ZLB results from a fall in the neutral interest rate, a negative TIP mitigates deflationary pressures, narrows the output gap, and implements the constrained-efficient allocation. When the ZLB is driven by self-fulfilling expectations, TIP can eliminate the deflationary equilibrium altogether. A rule that responds aggressively to inflation with a negative intercept proves robust across scenarios. Using a medium-scale model calibrated to Japan, we quantify a robust TIP rule that would have lifted the economy out of its liquidity trap. |
| Keywords: | Deflation; Zero Lower Bound; Liquidity Trap; Tax on Inflation; Taxbased Incomes Policies; Externality |
| Date: | 2026–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/059 |
| By: | Stéphane Benveniste (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the overrepresentation of students with aristocratic ancestry in elite higher education. It relies on a sample of 269, 917 students from ten leading French grandes écoles between 1911 and 2015 and uses surname‑based indicators of nobility. Individuals with aristocratic ancestry are between six and nine times more likely to enrol in one of these ten grandes écoles than the rest of the population, compared to eleven to fifteen times a century ago. While historically concentrated at Sciences Po Paris, their presence has become more evenly distributed across top‑tier institutions, with business schools now showing the highest levels of overrepresentation. The analysis also shows that noble men are more overrepresented than noble women in these top‑tier institutions, although this gap has narrowed. These results underscore that beyond the abolition of legal privileges, historical hierarchies persist. Future research could distinguish the extent to which this persistence may reflect the transmission of social, educational, cultural, or economic capital. |
| Abstract: | Cet article quantifie la surreprésentation des étudiants d'origine aristocratique dans les grandes écoles les plus prestigieuses. Il s'appuie sur un échantillon de 269 917 étudiants de dix grandes écoles entre 1911 et 2015 et mobilise des indicateurs d'ascendance aristocratique fondés sur le nom de famille. Les individus d'ascendance noble ont, sur la période récente, entre six et neuf fois plus de chances d'intégrer l'une de ces dix grandes écoles que le reste de la population, contre onze à quinze fois au début du XX è siècle. Alors qu'ils étaient historiquement concentrés à Sciences Po Paris, leur présence est désormais plus uniformément répartie entre les établissements les plus prestigieux, les écoles de commerce affichant les niveaux de surreprésentation les plus élevés. Les hommes d'ascendance noble sont par ailleurs davantage surreprésentés que les femmes dans ces grandes écoles, même si l'écart s'est réduit. Ces résultats montrent qu'au-delà de l'abolition de privilèges juridiques, des hiérarchies historiques peuvent persister. Des recherches futures pourraient contribuer à distinguer ce qui, dans cette persistance, relève notamment de la transmission d'un capital social, scolaire, culturel ou encore économique. |
| Keywords: | higher education, nobility and aristocracy, history of inequality, enseignement supérieur prestigieux, grandes écoles, noblesse et aristocratie, histoire des inégalités elite |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05567573 |
| By: | Shaban, Morsi Abdulla |
| Abstract: | Abstract Educational disruption in conflict-affected regions is often quantified through descriptive statistics, yet rarely analysed through causal lenses that account for the sequential nature of household decisions under survival constraints. This study introduces a causal data science framework that combines causal inference with machine learning to estimate the causal effect of resource-based interventions on school attendance in closed-system scarcity environments. Using secondary data from United Nations agencies, the World Bank, and peer-reviewed literature (2023–2026), we construct a synthetic population that replicates the demographic, nutritional, and water-access conditions of the Gaza Strip. The framework estimates heterogeneous treatment effects through a two-stage procedure: first, inverse probability weighting adjusts for observed confounders; second, double machine learning with gradient boosting and causal forests captures non-linear interactions and effect heterogeneity. Policy implications are derived from optimal policy trees that partition households into subgroups with distinct intervention recommendations. Results indicate that decentralised water access increases attendance by an average of 32.1 percentage points, with gains reaching 38–45 percentage points among households initially spending more than five hours on daily survival labour. Nutritional supplementation alone yields a smaller but significant average gain of 11.3 percentage points, primarily through cognitive recovery. Critically, the two interventions are complementary: a formal interaction analysis reveals a synergistic effect of 12.4 percentage points ( p < 0.001), such that combined water–nutrition packages generate substantially larger gains than either intervention alone. Policy trees recommend water interventions for high‑labour households and combined water–nutrition packages for those with elevated physiological penalty scores. All causal estimates pass refutation tests (random common cause, placebo treatment, data subset), confirming robustness. By relying exclusively on secondary data and simulation, the framework operates without requiring primary data collection or direct human subject involvement, thereby avoiding the logistical and institutional review complexities of fieldwork in active conflict zones. The methodology is readily transferable to other humanitarian settings where secondary data are available. |
| Date: | 2026–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:edarxi:3vckt_v1 |
| By: | Samuel Forbes |
| Abstract: | We analyse the UK income distribution from 2000 to 2023 using HMRC annual percentile data for both pre-tax and post-tax income. We fit a prefactor-adjusted $\kappa$-generalised specification to the data by weighted non-linear least squares and use inverse transform sampling to generate simulated income populations. The results suggest a redistribution of income shares over the period: the bottom 40\% appears to have increased its share, the middle-upper part of the distribution (50th--90th percentiles) lost share, the top 10\% remained broadly stable, and the top 1\% increased its share of pre-tax income. Because the modified specification is defined only above a positive threshold, conclusions concerning the lower tail should be interpreted with some caution. Using simulated 2023 pre-tax incomes to examine tax reform scenarios, we find that revenue-equivalent tax increases on high-income earners must be more than four times as large as comparable increases on lower-income earners. This suggests that, despite increased concentration at the top, the UK tax base remains driven primarily by the large number of taxpayers outside the very top of the distribution. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.03025 |
| By: | Marie-Laure Mourre (IRG - Institut de Recherche en Gestion - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12) |
| Abstract: | This research addresses inequalities in access to essential resources and services (food, health, energy, education). It shows that territorial and social access inequalities stem as much from structural determinants—such as supply chain organization, infrastructures, rules, and power relations—as from individual decisions. Focus of the Article The article repositions social marketing within a justice-oriented systemic perspective. Rather than focusing solely on information or awareness, the objective is to transform the access conditions that shape practices. The approach is explicitly audience-oriented, emphasizing lived experience, frictions, and renunciation; it calls for segmenting populations along access gradients, relies on strong theoretical grounding and formative research reasoning, rearticulates action levers beyond the traditional marketing mix, and introduces a learning- and evaluation-oriented logic. Research Question How can social marketing be rethought and operationalized to address "systemic" access problems from a social justice perspective, by articulating micro-, meso-, and macro-levels and rendering intervention levers actionable? Program Design/Approach The article introduces the InTerACT framework (Inclusive Territorial Action and Community Transformation), designed as a diagnostic and design tool. It begins with mapping the access system, identifies barriers and facilitators at each level (capabilities and empowerment at the micro level; coordination, trust, governance, and actor networks at the meso level; institutions, infrastructures, and policy instruments at the macro level), and then structures the analysis around three dimensions of justice (redistribution, recognition, representation). This process enables the derivation of a combinable portfolio of levers (institutional, environmental, community/partnership-based, behavioral, and communicational) and explicit, steerable purposes. Importance to the Social Marketing Field The main contribution is a unifying framework that reduces the overly individualistic bias of some social marketing interventions, connects social marketing with provisioning systems and commons scholarship, and provides guidance for designing territorialized strategies capable of sustainably improving access equity. Methods The study relies on a conceptual synthesis based on a Conceptual Framework Analysis (iterative and integrative), complemented by an operationalization example focused on access to local food in a European urban context, drawing on documentary, geographic, and qualitative data triangulation. Results The primary outcome is the formalization of the InTerACT framework and its diagnostic and lever–purpose alignment mechanisms. The worked example illustrates embedded barriers (routines, informational frictions, perceived costs; coordination and visibility deficits; logistical lock-ins and contractual incentives) and suggests corresponding action pathways. Recommendations For research, the article recommends translating the framework into testable propositions, developing robust indicators for justice dimensions, and using mixed and longitudinal designs. For practice, applying InTerACT can support the construction of local coalitions, the reconfiguration of supply and access rules, and the steering of interventions based on equity, legitimacy/agency, and sustainability. Limitations As a conceptual framework developed through an integrative Conceptual Framework Analysis, InTerACT has not yet been subjected to causal empirical testing; its relationships and proposed levers require further specification, operationalization, and validation through systematic reviews and longitudinal, mixed-methods empirical studies across diverse contexts. |
| Keywords: | Justice, Commons, Community, Systems, Social marketing |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05559254 |
| By: | Rindra Tsiferana Rajaonson (Université de Fianarantsoa) |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine l'impact de la volatilité du taux de change sur les investissements directs étrangers (IDE) à Madagascar entre 1987 et 2021, en utilisant le modèle ARDL. Les résultats indiquent une relation de cointégration entre les variables, confirmée par un test statistique significatif. À long terme, la croissance économique influence positivement les IDE, tandis qu'une plus grande ouverture extérieure peut initialement réduire les IDE en raison de la concurrence accrue. À court terme, une augmentation de la volatilité du taux de change peut attirer les IDE, mais une volatilité prolongée tend à les réduire. Une hausse immédiate de l'ouverture extérieure réduit également les IDE, bien qu'une plus grande ouverture puisse les favoriser à plus long terme. Enfin, une croissance de la production nationale renforce l'attractivité de Madagascar pour les investisseurs étrangers. |
| Keywords: | Volatilité, IDE, Long Terme, Court Terme, Taux De Change, Taux De Change Court Terme Long Terme IDE Volatilité |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05553174 |
| By: | Lacy, Katherine; Key, Nigel; Bauman, Allison; Jablonski, Becca B.R.; Hadrich, Joleen |
| Abstract: | Information from the 2022 Census of Agriculture is used to describe the characteristics of farms and ranches with beginning farmers and ranchers (BFRs), producers having no more than 10 years of farming experience. The report presents data for farms where all producers are BFRs; at least one, but not all producers are BFRs (multigenerational); and those operations with no BFRs. For each type of operation, the report compares the characteristics of business operations that survived from 2012 to 2022 to those that did not. The analysis identifies which farm and producer characteristics were correlated with farm business survival over this 10-year period. Results suggest that land tenure arrangements, the use of differentiated markets, crop insurance, and government payments are important correlates with business survival for farms operated by beginning farmers and ranchers. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:396401 |
| By: | David Moroz (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School) |
| Abstract: | Les Lego ne sont pas uniquement des jouets : ils sont devenus de véritables objets decollection, portés par un marché de seconde main particulièrement dynamique. Qu'est-ce que la marque Lego nous enseigne sur les marchés de collection et sur toutes ses homologues qui cherchent à susciter chez leurs clients le désir de collectionner ? |
| Keywords: | Vente d'occasion, Plateforme numérique, « Entreprise(s) », Collection, Clients, Produits, Marchés, Jouets, Art, Recyclage, Entreprises numériques |
| Date: | 2025–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05551658 |
| By: | Smaldino, Paul E. |
| Abstract: | Evolution requires variation, transmission, and selection. Formal theorizing on cultural evolution has largely focused on transmission processes. Though the boundary between transmission and selection can be blurry at times, I focus on selection and introduce a taxonomy of cultural selection processes. These can be sorted into two broad classes: source selection and content selection, each with several subcategories. This framework identifies cultural attraction, often discussed as distinct from selection, as form of transformative selection, offering a more integrative and consilient view of how cultural variation is selectively transmitted. More generally, this taxonomy provides a unifying language for discussing cultural evolution and highlights important but underdeveloped research areas for theoretical investigation. |
| Date: | 2026–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z2m5e_v3 |
| By: | Ken-ichi Hashimoto |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of trade liberalization in a stagnant economy characterized by firm-level productivity heterogeneity. By incorporating Melitz’s (2003) framework into a model of economic stagnation driven by insufficient aggregate demand, we examine how trade opening affects employment and consumption. The outcomes deviate significantly from those of conventional models that assume full employment. Under conditions of demand deficiency, the selection effect induced by trade—whereby high-productivity firms expand and less efficient firms exit—leads to a reduction in total employment. This deterioration in labor market conditions suppresses aggregate income and consumption, suggesting that trade liberalization may inadvertently worsen economic stagnation. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1310 |
| By: | Benjamin R. Handel; Louis-Jonas Heizlsperger; Jonas Knecht; Jonathan T. Kolstad; Ulrike Malmendier; Filip Matějka |
| Abstract: | We study how situational fluctuations in cognitive capacity shape behavior in high-stakes, real-time decision-making. Drawing on recent advances in behavioral economics that revolve around inattention, cognition and complexity, we show that cognitive load influences how physicians in emergency departments allocate mental effort and attention when making diagnostic and treatment decisions. We use quasi-random variation in patient-physician pairings, along with granular electronic medical record and audit-log data from many clinical interactions, to show that, under higher cognitive load, physicians substitute mental deliberation with more numerous but less precise diagnostic actions. Specifically, we document that higher load (i) increases the total number of orders of diagnostic tests (ii) reduces the use of targeted, but more uncommon tests (iii) increases the use of common tests and (iv) increases uncertainty in diagnostic beliefs. Cognitive load impacts downstream inpatient admission from the emergency department: a physician in the highest cognitive load decile increases admissions by 28% relative to the same physician in the lowest cognitive load decile, for the exact same kind of patient. These results offer novel field-based evidence on the dynamics of attention and belief formation, and shed light on how cognitive constraints shape diagnostic behavior in complex, real-world environments. |
| JEL: | D83 D91 I11 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35034 |
| By: | Cylus, Jonathan; Thomson, Sarah; Habicht, Triin; Evetovits, Tamás |
| Abstract: | Global and regional commitments to universal health coverage emphasize reducing financial hardship due to out-ofpocket payments for health care. Despite this, many countries continue to rely on user charges—either to raise revenue or reduce demand—especially under fiscal pressure. We conducted a narrative review of academic literature on the theoretical basis for and empirical effects of user charges in health systems. This was complemented by recent case studies from Slovenia, Estonia, and Cyprus, selected to illustrate diverse approaches to user charge policy under fiscal constraints. Common arguments in favour of user charges are that they can mitigate excess health care consumption and generate revenues. However, evidence suggests they often deter necessary care and lead to financial hardship, especially for low-income groups. Country case studies reveal varied approaches towards user charges in the context of fiscal pressure: Estonia increased co-payments despite prior efforts to improve financial protection; Slovenia eliminated user charges by introducing a flat levy to generate additional revenue; and Cyprus dramatically reduced its reliance on out-of-pocket payments by increasing public spending on health. Growing fiscal pressure may tempt countries to implement or increase user charges. However, doing so without adequate protective mechanisms can increase financial hardship, poverty and unmet health needs. Policymakers should prioritize pre-payment mechanisms and equity-oriented safeguards to ensure sustainable, fair and affordable access to health care. Continuous monitoring of financial hardship remains essential to inform policy decisions. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137838 |
| By: | Mathieu Martin; Linus Thierry Nana Noumi; Zéphirin Nganmeni; Ashley Piggins (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | In spatial voting games, the valence is traditionally modeled as a non-ideological attribute that is uniformly assigned to a candidate by all voters, independent of their policy preferences. In its original for-mulation, additive valence is assumed to be entirely detached from the candidate policy considerations. In this paper, we explore an alterna-tive framework in which additive valence interacts with the candidates' policy platforms. Each candidate possesses an individual valence level, but voters choose to recognize this valence only if the candidate is perceived as competent in defending their proposed policy. This perceived competence is assumed to be common knowledge among voters. The core objective of this study is to determine the conditions under which Nash equilibria arise in the context of electoral competition with policy-dependent additive valence. |
| Keywords: | Spatial voting, Electoral competition, Dual valence, Equilibrium |
| JEL: | D70 D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2026-03 |
| By: | Mykola Babiak; Jozef Barunik; Josef Kurka |
| Abstract: | Cross-sectional dispersion in firm-level realized skewness is significantly and negatively related to future stock market returns. The predictive power of skewness dispersion is robust to in-sample and out-of-sample estimation and is incremental over a broad set of existing predictors, with only a few alternatives retaining independent explanatory ability. Skewness dispersion also delivers substantial economic gains in portfolio allocation. Its forecasting power is concentrated in months with monetary policy announcements, reflecting an information-based mechanism. The empirical evidence suggests that skewness dispersion captures the gradual incorporation of macro news into prices, which is driven by variation in aggregate risk and valuation adjustments. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.07870 |