|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Ruopu Hu (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Junior Maith (Norges Bank); Shin-Ichi Nishiyama (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | We revisit U.S. trend inflation dynamics since the 1960s by estimating a nonlinear, nonstationary Markov-switching New Keynesian model in which trend inflation evolves as a latent Markov process. Our estimation (i) confirms the Volcker disinflation as a regime shift from high to mid-level trend inflation between 1980 and 1987; (ii) shows that trend inflation remained stable around 2.8% during the Great Moderation and beyond, despite major disruptions such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic; and (iii) identifies a persistent hawkish monetary policy regime after 1982, with temporary weakening during periods of policy rate reductions at the zero lower bound—while inflation expectations remained well anchored. |
| Keywords: | Trend Inflation, Markov-Switching DSGE, Volcker Disinflation, Great Moderation. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 C54 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2604 |
| By: | Carlos Cañizares Martínez; Adriana Lojschová; Alicia Aguilar |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of standard monetary policy shocks on housing and other macro variables in Slovakia, a CESEE country. For that purpose, we use a non linear local projection model which uncovers asymmetries in these effects around three different dimensions: high versus low economic growth, interest rates and infla tion. The main findings in this study are as follows. First, we often find no evidence of standard monetary policy eliciting a contractionary response in house prices or housing investment. Second, evidence is weakest during recessions and periods of low interest rates or low inflation. Third, these findings may be linked to the inability of monetary policy to trigger significant contractionary effects on household lending, which in turn may be linked to the effective lower bound on interest rates, the pre dominance of fixed-rate mortgages in Slovakia, or interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy. We also provide a discussion on the possible country charac teristics that might drive these results and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, nonlinearities, local projections, euro area. |
| JEL: | C32 C36 E42 E52 E58 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp202 |
| By: | Kul B. Luintel (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University); Jose L. Torres (Department of Economics, University of Malaga) |
| Abstract: | We develop a general equilibrium framework in which a commercial banker constrained by capital adequacy requirements creates a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to hold securitized assets off its balance sheet. By separating the bank and SPV, the banker circumvents regulation, creating a gap between statutory and effective capital ratios. The model incorporates loan-to-value and collateral constraints with credit risk to examine interactions between financial and real sectors over the business cycle. Securitization is expansionary, increases off-balance-sheet lending under tighter regulation, amplifies credit risk, and raises welfare in the steady state. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis; securitization; special purpose vehicles; DSGE models; credit risk |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G2 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/2 |
| By: | Apel, Mikael (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Blix Grimaldi, Marianna (Financial Stability Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Ahrenberg, Lars (Linköping University); Jönsson, Arne (Linköping University) |
| Abstract: | Most empirical research on the effects of transparency on monetary policy committees is based on a natural experiment in 1993 at the Federal Reserve, when it was decided that transcripts of meetings would be released with a five-year lag. Evidence is found of both a conformity effect (reluctance to offer dissenting opinions) and a discipline effect (more thorough preparation). We investigate the effects of increased transparency on a monetary policy committee using another and arguably more timely natural experiment. In May 2007, the Swedish central bank started to include the names of Executive Board members in the minutes of monetary policy meetings. We find that members began to put more effort into explaining their views (a form of discipline effect), that interaction between members decreased, and that references to members’ own previous views became more common. A key insight is that the effects of increased transparency depend on the nature of the change and the type of committee. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication; central bank transparency; committee decision making; text analysis |
| JEL: | D71 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0463 |
| By: | David W. Berger; Geoffrey Gee; Nick Turner; Eric Zwick |
| Abstract: | How does fiscal stimulus affect durable goods sales and to what extent does stimulus drive inflation? We study this question in the context of how the unprecedented pandemic fiscal stimulus affected household car purchases and auto prices. Using administrative data on vehicle registrations, we exploit the timing of nearly $900 billion in stimulus payments and geographic differences in program exposure to identify causal effects on sales. We find the stimulus increased purchases by 5.5 million vehicles (3.2%) during 2020–2022, implying a medium-run (3-year) marginal propensity to spend (MPX) on autos of 0.19 and a total marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 0.47. Despite this substantial demand response, fiscal transfers account for less than 20% of the surge in auto prices. In a general equilibrium model with new and used markets, we show how secondary-market interactions dampen inflation. When transfers push households onto the new-car margin, trade-ins expand used supply and limit price increases. This channel weakens when supply is tight or when policy targets borrowing constraints, in which case stimulus manifests more as inflation than output. Non-fiscal factors, including supply constraints, relaxed credit conditions, and preference shifts, explain the majority of the observed inflation. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 E31 E32 E62 H12 H24 H31 H53 L62 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34954 |
| By: | Drygalla, Andrej; Heinisch, Katja; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel; Schult, Christoph; Zeddies, Götz |
| Abstract: | Der Beitrag untersucht die mittelfristige Entwicklung der deutschen Wirtschaft und der öffentlichen Finanzen vor dem Hintergrund der seit 2025 geltenden neuen EU-Fiskalregeln und der jüngsten Lockerung der nationalen Schuldenbremse. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Frage, ob und unter welchen Bedingungen Deutschland die europäischen Vorgaben zu Defizit, Schuldenstand und Nettoprimärausgaben einhalten kann. Auf Basis einer makroökonomischen Projektion bis zum Jahr 2040 wird zunächst das Produktionspotenzial mit zwei alternativen Verfahren geschätzt: der von der EU-Kommission verwendeten Methode sowie einer modifizierten EU-Methode (MODEM), die demografische Effekte stärker berücksichtigt. Darauf aufbauend werden die öffentlichen Finanzen bis zum Jahr 2030 projiziert und die resultierenden Nettoausgabenpfade mit den Vorgaben des deutschen finanzpolitisch-strukturellen Plans verglichen. Ergänzend werden finanzpolitische Szenarien bis 2040 simuliert, die sich hinsichtlich der Entwicklung des strukturellen Primärsaldos unterscheiden. Das Potenzialwachstum dürfte in den kommenden Jahren deutlich geringer ausfällen als in der Vergangenheit. Ohne zusätzliche Konsolidierungsmaßnahmen steigen Defizite und Schuldenquote spürbar an, und die EU-Fiskalregeln werden verfehlt. Die im finanzpolitisch-strukturellen Plan unterstellte Einhaltung der Vorgaben erfordert erhebliche, bislang nicht konkretisierte Einsparungen. Langfristig lässt sich die Schuldenstandsquote nur durch eine deutliche Verbesserung des strukturellen Primärsaldos stabilisieren; andernfalls drohen stark steigende Zinsausgaben und eine nachhaltige Einschränkung fiskalischer Spielräume. |
| Keywords: | EU-Fiskalregeln, makroökonomische Projektion, mittelfristiger finanzpolitisch-struktureller Plan, öffentliche Finanzen, Produktionspotenzial, Schuldenstandsquote |
| JEL: | C53 E32 E37 E62 H60 H61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhpno:338071 |
| By: | Hammermann, Andrea; Stettes, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Im Koalitionsvertrag zur 21. Legislaturperiode sehen CDU, CSU und SPD vor, die Arbeitszeiterfassung unbürokratisch zu regeln und Vertrauensarbeitszeiten im Einklang mit der EU-Arbeitszeitrichtlinie weiterhin ohne Zeiterfassung zu ermöglichen. Ein Versprechen, welches Befürworter von verschärften Aufzeichnungspflichten mit dem Verweis auf den Arbeits- und Gesundheitsschutz kritisch sehen. Eine faktische Abschaffung von Vertrauensarbeitszeiten würde in Deutschland jedoch bestehende Gestaltungsspielräume vieler Beschäftigten einschränken, bei denen keine gesundheitlichen oder arbeitsschutzrelevanten Risiken bestehen. In Deutschland ist die Vertrauensarbeitszeit ein weit verbreitetes Arbeitszeitmodell, mit dem der Arbeitgeber den Beschäftigten ein erhebliches Maß an Handlungsspielräumen in der Arbeitszeitgestaltung einräumt. Rund jede beziehungsweise jeder fünfte Beschäftigte arbeitet in einem Arbeitszeitmodell, bei dem der Arbeitgeber auf die Festlegung der Lage der Arbeitszeit und eine betriebliche Zeiterfassung verzichtet und die Beschäftigten selbst große Handlungsspielräume bezüglich des Beginns und Ende ihrer Arbeitszeiten haben. Zur Messung der Vertrauensarbeitszeit wird die Arbeitszeiterhebung der Bundesanstalt für Arbeitsschutz und Arbeitsmedizin (Wellen 2019, 2021 und 2023) verwendet. Hochqualifizierte Experten und Spezialisten arbeiten besonders häufig in Vertrauensarbeitszeitmodellen. Im Vergleich zur Vorgängererhebung im Jahr 2021 ist der Anteil der Beschäftigten, die von Vertrauensarbeitszeitmodellen profitieren, um 3 Prozentpunkte gestiegen. Beschäftigte mit Vertrauensarbeitszeiten weisen eine signifikant größere Zufriedenheit mit den eigenen Arbeitszeiten und der Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf auf als Beschäftigte mit anderen Arbeitszeitregimes. Das hohe Maß an eigenverantwortlicher Arbeitszeitgestaltung in Vertrauensarbeitszeitmodellen wirkt sich auch positiv auf die Selbstwirksamkeitserfahrung aus. Die empirische Analyse geht schließlich der Sorge nach, dass Vertrauensarbeitszeiten gesundheitliche Risiken für die Beschäftigten bergen, denen einzig durch eine lückenlose elektronische Zeiterfassung entgegengetreten werden kann. Die Befunde auf Basis der BAuA-Arbeitszeiterhebung können diese Sorge nicht bestätigen. Im Gegenteil: Beschäftigte mit Vertrauensarbeitszeiten haben häufiger das Gefühl, gut mit ihren Arbeitsbelastungen umgehen zu können, und zeigen seltener Symptome einer chronischen Erschöpfung. |
| Keywords: | Arbeitszeitgestaltung, Vertrauen, Arbeitsbedingungen, Empirische Methode, Deutschland |
| JEL: | J22 J28 J88 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:338108 |
| By: | François Aventur; Saad-Ellah Berhili; Amine Chamkhi (France Travail (French Employment Agency)) |
| Abstract: | The use of the survey among a representative sample of companies in the Moroccan formal sector makes it possible to draw a broad overview of the diversity of employment structures and methods of managing recruitment and exits from companies. It demonstrates in particular differentiated practices with regard to the degree of formalization of employment depending on the sector of activity, the size of the companies and the qualification of the jobs. This leads to the development of a typology of companies with regard to the quality of jobs and their methods of workforce management. |
| Abstract: | L'exploitation de l'enquête auprès d'un échantillon représentatif des entreprises du secteur formel marocain permet de dessiner un large panorama de la diversité des structures de l'emploi et des modes de gestion des recrutements comme des sorties des entreprises. Il témoigne notamment de pratiques différenciées au regard du degré de formalisation de l'emploi selon le secteur d'activité, la taille des entreprises et la qualification des emplois. Cela conduit à l'élaboration d'une typologie d'entreprises au regard de la qualité des emplois et de leurs modes de gestion de la main d'œuvre. |
| Keywords: | form of employment, Morocco, HR management practice, company, private sector, quality, employment, secteur privé, qualité, pratique de GRH, Maroc, forme d’emploi, entreprise, emploi |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05530086 |
| By: | Pablo (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Ángeles (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | El estudio analiza cómo diversas dimensiones de vulnerabilidad social inciden en la criminalidad en México (2016-2024) mediante un panel estatal con modelos de efectos fijos. Muestra que desigualdad y pobreza no explican linealmente los homicidios, mientras robos y narcomenudeo se asocian con violencia letal. Los delitos patrimoniales se vinculan con rezago educativo y privación social, en un contexto territorial e institucional complejo. |
| Keywords: | México, Security, Crime incidence, Social vulnerability, Inequality, Homicides rate, Robbery rate. |
| JEL: | H83 K42 C38 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:26 |
| By: | Borel Ahonon; Guillaume Roussellet |
| Abstract: | We propose a macro-finance model in which inflation, growth, and the policy rate are driven by unobservable long-run trends and transitory cycles that investors must infer from aggregate data. Their subjective estimates of these trends, and the uncertainty surrounding them, are priced into the Treasury yield curve in a tractable way through both interest rate expectations and bond risk premia. Empirical estimates reveal an upward smooth trend in the long-run real interest rate (r-star) until the 1980s, and large investor uncertainty with confidence bands on as wide as 3.4 percentage points, contrasting with the volatile rate implied by perfect information models. |
| Keywords: | Incomplete information; interest rate stars; Bayesian learning; treasury yields; investors; uncertainty |
| JEL: | C58 E43 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:102914 |
| By: | Bellmann, Charlotte; Naschert, Lisa |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Studie untersucht den Einfluss von Groß- und Megaevents auf die Urlaubsreiseplanung der deutschen Wohnbevölkerung im Jahr 2024. Im Fokus stehen Sport- und Musikevents, die im Jahr 2024 in großer Zahl stattfanden und für viele Menschen einen wichtigen Bestandteil ihres Freizeitverhaltens darstellen. Eine repräsentative Online-Befragung von 976 Personen im Alter von 18 bis 74 Jahren zeigt, dass Großevents die Urlaubsplanung in vielfältiger Weise beeinflussen, beispielsweise attraktivitätssteigernd oder -hemmend bei der Destinationswahl. Ebenfalls können Großevents und Urlaubsreisen in Konkurrenz zueinander stehen. Dabei werden sowohl soziale als auch ökonomische Faktoren als Einflussgrößen untersucht. Jüngere Zielgruppen zeigen eine höhere Bereitschaft, für den Eventbesuch ins Ausland zu reisen und den Urlaub entsprechend anzupassen. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Relevanz von Großevents als Reisemotiv und zeigen Ansatzpunkte für das Destinationsmanagement sowie die Tourismusforschung auf. Zukünftige Untersuchungen sollten eine detailliertere Betrachtung spezifischer Zielgruppen und der wirtschaftlichen Effekte solcher Events einbeziehen. |
| Abstract: | The present study examines the influence of major and mega events on the holiday travel planning of the German resident population in 2024. The focus lies on sports and music events, which took place in large numbers in 2024 and represent an important part of the leisure time behaviour for many people. A representative online survey of 976 people aged between 18 and 74 shows that major events influence holiday planning in a variety of ways, for example by increasing or decreasing the attractiveness of a destination when it comes to choosing where to go. Furthermore, major events and holidays may compete with each other. Both social and economic factors are examined as influencing variables. Younger target groups are more willing to travel abroad to attend the event and to adjust their holidays accordingly. The results underline the relevance of major events as a travel motive and provide starting points for destination management and tourism research. Future research should include a more detailed examination of specific target groups and the economic effects of such events. |
| Keywords: | Großevents, Megaevents, Urlaubsreiseplanung, Reisemotive, Reiseverhalten, major events, mega events, holiday travel planning, travel motives, travel behaviour |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ditfwp:338101 |
| By: | Stupak, Nataliya; Ebers, Niklas; von Zepelin, Ruben; Ilgen, Konstantin; Schröter, Kai; Müller-Thomy, Hannes |
| Abstract: | Ausreichende Wasserversorgung ist eine der wichtigsten Herausforderungen für den Pflanzenbau in Deutschland im Kontext des fortschreitenden Klimawandels. Niedrige Grundwasserstände, Änderung der räumlichen Variabilität des Niederschlags, zunehmende Häufigkeit des Niederschlags in Form von Starkregenereignissen sowie Einschränkungen von Wasserentnahmen verringern die Wasserverfügbarkeit für Pflanzen und die Bewässerungssicherheit. Das Verbundprojekt LAWAMAD - Landwirtschaftliches Wassermanagement in Deutschland - untersucht das Potenzial und die Umsetzbarkeit der oberirdischen Wasserspeicherung für eine Erhöhung der Wasserverfügbarkeit für Bewässerung. Wasserspeicherbecken können im Winterhalbjahr gefüllt und im Sommerhalbjahr für die Bewässerung genutzt werden. Somit können die zunehmend ungünstige jahreszeitliche Niederschlagsverteilung ausgeglichen, die Zuverlässigkeit der Bewässerung für Betriebe verbessert sowie die Interessenkonflikte um Wassernutzungen im Sommerhalbjahr abgemildert werden. Dimensionierung von Wasserspeicherbecken. Für Landschaftsausschnitte in der Magdeburger Börde (Sachsen- Anhalt) und in der Region Weingarten (Rheinland-Pfalz) wurde die Speicherung (i) von Wasserentnahmen aus Fließgewässern I. Ordnung (überregionales Konzept), (ii) von Entnahmen aus Fließgewässern II.-III. Ordnung (regionales Konzept), und (iii) von Oberflächenabfluss (lokales Konzept) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass in den ausgewählten Landschaftsausschnitten der Abfluss in den Fließgewässern im Winterhalbjahr ausreichend ist, um die für die Bewässerung erforderlichen Wassermengen zwischenzuspeichern. Die Möglichkeit zur Speicherung von Oberflächenabfluss ist sehr standortspezifisch und stark von den Gelände- und Bodeneigenschaften abhängig. Im Vergleich zu den Abflussmengen in Fließgewässern können bei dieser Option nur deutlich kleinere Wassermengen für die Zwischenspeicherung zurückgehalten werden. Zusätzlich entstehen bei dieser Option Interessenkonflikte zwischen Wasserspeicherung und Erosionsschutz. Planung von Wasserspeicherbecken und Ermittlung des Investitionsbedarfs. Der Bau eines Wasserspeicherbeckens ist eine kostenintensive Maßnahme. Je nach Gesamtvolumen des Beckens, liegt der Investitionsbedarf für 1 m3 im Folienbecken gespeichertes Wasser zwischen 20-70 €. Dieser Preis umfasst neben den Bauarbeiten und Materialien auch technische Anlagen und Baunebenkosten. Die Wirtschaftlichkeit der Wasserspeicherung kann durch (i) Minderung des Bewässerungs- und Wasserspeicherungsbedarfs, (ii) Verringerung der Kosten durch die Bauform und Ausführung des Wasserspeicherbeckens, und (iii) multifunktionale Nutzung des Wasserspeicherbeckens, z. B. für Energieerzeugung verbessert werden. Synergien zwischen Wasserspeicherung und Energieerzeugung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen auf, dass bei maximaler Belegung der Wasseroberfläche mit schwimmender Photovoltaik die Verdunstung erheblich reduziert werden kann. Dies wirkt sich positiv auf die Dimensionierung von Speicherbecken und den erforderlichen Investitionsbedarf aus. Stromerzeugung stellt eine zusätzliche Einkommensquelle dar und ermöglicht die Einführung von intelligenter Bewässerungssteuerung auch auf den Flächen, die keinen Anschluss an ein Stromnetz haben. Das Potenzial und die Umsetzbarkeit der oberirdischen Wasserspeicherung sind in breiterem rechtlichem und politischem Kontext zu betrachten. Erforderlich ist die einheitliche und ökologisch sichere Regelung von Entnahmen aus Fließgewässern und Erteilung von wasserrechtlichen Erlaubnissen. Weiterentwicklungen des Wasserhaushaltsgesetzes und des Erneuerbaren Energien Gesetzes sind geboten, um die Synergien zwischen Wasserspeicherung und Energieerzeugung auszuschöpfen. Um das ganze Potenzial von Wasserspeicherbecken für die landwirtschaftliche Wasserversorgung, den Grundwasserschutz und weitere gesellschaftliche Leistungen (z. B. Hochwasserschutz, Energieerzeugung) auszuschöpfen, soll die Wasserspeicherung zukünftig besser koordiniert und in die räumliche Landschaftsplanung integriert werden. |
| Abstract: | Sufficient water supply is one of the major challenges for German crop production in the context of advancing climate change. Low groundwater levels, changes in rainfall patterns, and increasing frequency of precipitation in form of heavy rainfall together with restrictions on water exstraction for irrigation reduce water availability for crops and reliability of irrigation. The joint research project LAWAMAD - Agricultural Water Management in Germany - examines the potential and feasibility of water storage to increase water availability for crop production. The main principle of this technical measure is to store water extracted in winter and use it for irrigation in summer. In this way the increasingly unfavourable rainfall distribution can be balanced, the reliability of irrigation improved, and the seasonal conflicts of interests regarding water use alleviated. Dimensioning of water storage reservoirs. The storage of (i) water extractions from watercourses of 1st order (supra-regional concept), (ii) water extractions from watercourses of 2nd and 3rd order (regional concept) and (iii) surface runoff in case of heavy rain (local concept) was examined for two case studies in Magdeburg Börde (Saxony-Anhalt) and the Weingarten region (Rhineland-Palatinate). The results demonstrate, that for these cases the river discharge in winter is sufficient for storing necessary amounts of water for irrigation. Storage of surface run-off is very site-specific and depends strongly on terrain and soil characteristics. Comparing with the levels of river discharge, much smaller amounts of water for storage can be generated when implementing the local concept. Furthermore, the conflicts of interests between water storage and soil protection from erosion are to be considered. Planning of water storage reservoirs investment requirements. The construction of water storage reservoirs for securing irrigation implies high investment requirements ranging between 20-70 € per 1 m3 of stored water, depending i. a. on the total volume of a reservoir. These estimated investment costs cover construction works, materials, technical facilities and ancillary expenses. The economic efficiency of water storage can be improved by (i) measures reducing irrigation demand and therefore water storage needs, (ii) decreasing investment requirements by choice of the reservoir's construction form and design, and (iii) multifunctional use of water storage reservoirs, i. e. for energy production. Synergies between water storage and power generation. The research results demonstrate, that the maximum coverage of water surface with floating photovoltaic can significantly reduce evaporation from a water storage reservoir, which has positive effects on dimensioning of the latter and the corresponding investment costs. Power generation constitutes an additional income source for agricultural producers and enables implementation of intelligent irrigation scheduling systems on farmland without connection to electricity supply. The potential and feasibility of water storage for irrigation are to be considered in a broader legal and political context. There is a clear need for coherent and environmentally safe regulation of water extractions from watercourses and for issuance of water extraction permits. Amendments to the Germany's Federal Water Act and the Renewable Energy Act are advisable for exploiting the synergies between water storage for irrigation and power generation. In the future, water storage should be better coordinated and integrated into regional landscape planning, in order to exploit the full potential of storage reservoirs both for agricultural water supply and groundwater protection as well as for provision of further public services such as flood protection and power generation. |
| Keywords: | Klimaanpassung, Wassermanagement, Wasserspeicherung für Bewässerung, schwimmende Photovoltaik, climate adaptation, crop production, water management, water storage for irrigation, floating photovoltai |
| JEL: | Q15 Q25 Q42 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:338112 |
| By: | Annie McGrew; Yana Rodgers |
| Abstract: | With the reversal of Roe v. Wade in 2022, many U.S. employers announced they would reimburse employees for abortion-related travel expenses. This action complements increasingly common employer policies subsidizing employee access to assisted reproductive technologies such as in-vitro fertilization and egg freezing. This article reflects on why employers offer these benefits and whether they enhance or undermine reproductive justice. From the employer's perspective, abortion and assisted reproductive technologies help women to plan childbearing around the demands of their jobs. Both are associated with delayed childbirth and reduced fertility, which lower the costs of motherhood to employers. However, firm subsidization of these services does not further reproductive justice because it reifies structures which incentivize women to delay childbirth and reduce fertility, and it reinforces economic and reproductive inequalities. We conclude by questioning whether reproductive justice is possible without transforming the economy so that it prioritizes care over profits. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.00830 |
| By: | Rajae Hassar (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Mustapha Machrafi (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | Cet article vise à analyser l'impact de la digitalisation sur l'expérience client et à clarifier les mécanismes théoriques par lesquels les outils numériques contribuent à l'amélioration du parcours client. La méthodologie repose sur une revue intégrative de la littérature portant sur les travaux relatifs à l'expérience client, à la transformation numérique et à la personnalisation des services. Les résultats de l'analyse mettent en évidence le rôle central des technologies numériques, telles que les plateformes numériques, les plateformes multicanales, l'analyse des données de l'intelligence artificielle dans la création d'expériences client personnalisées, fluides et émotionnellement engageantes. L'article propose un cadre théorique synthétisant les principaux leviers de la digitalisation de l'expérience client et mettant en lumière plusieurs perspectives de recherches futures, notamment autour de l'intelligence artificielle générative et des enjeux d'inclusion numérique. Mots clés : Digitalisation, expérience client, outils numériques, personnalisation. |
| Keywords: | Digital tools, M15, Personnalization. JEL classification : M31, Customer exeprience, M15 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Digitalization, O33, personnalisation Classification JEL : M31, outils numériques, expérience client, Digitalisation, Digitalisation expérience client outils numériques personnalisation Classification JEL : M31 O33 M15 Type du papier : Recherche Théorique Digitalization Customer exeprience Digital tools Personnalization. JEL classification : M31 O33 M15 |
| Date: | 2026–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05482072 |
| By: | Thomas B. Foster; Kendall Houghton |
| Abstract: | This CES technical note provides an overview of the development of prospective MAFID Stability Scores for the enhancement of the Census Bureau’s Person Characteristic Frame (PCF). MAFID Stability Scores capture the predicted probability that the roster of PIKs found at a MAFID in year y will be the same in year y+1. These scores are rooted in the Demographic Frame and use its Person-Place Model to situate PIKs within MAFIDs as of a given reference date. Changes in PIK rosters are predicted as a function of a broad array of MAFID- and place-level characteristics gleaned from administrative record, survey, and publicly available sources. Results show that most MAFID rosters are stable from one year to the next between 2018-19 and 2022-23, experiencing no fertility, mortality, migration, or “ghosting†(the disappearance or reappearance of a PIK inconsistently covered by the Demographic Frame). Among those MAFIDS that are unstable, the most common source of instability is migration; births, deaths, and “ghosting†are rare by comparison. Stability scores accurately predict approximately three-quarters of all observed MAFID stability outcomes. Opportunities for future improvement and potential use cases are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Person Characteristics Frame, Demographic Frame, NCOA, Black Knight, ACS, IRS-1040, Planning Database |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-04 |
| By: | Heckert, Jessica; Sow, Doulo; Tranchant, Jean-Pierre; Paz, Florencia; Gelli, Aulo |
| Abstract: | Armed conflict has myriad negative consequences on the wellbeing of women and men, and its non-random nature makes it difficult to study its impacts. We examine the changes in empowerment during the period of 2017-2020 in western Burkina Faso as armed conflict moved closer. We combined data from the randomized-controlled trial of Soutenir l’Exploitation Familiale pour Lancer l’Elevage des Volailles et Valoriser l’Economie Rural (SELEVER) a gender- and nutrition-sensitive poultry production intervention, which collected the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index with geospatial- and date-specific data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project database. To evaluate the effect of conflict on empowerment, we estimated a continuous difference-in-difference model, separately for women and men, across multiple empowerment indicators, in which the primary explanatory variable describes the change in distance to conflict during this time period. Then, to determine if the SELEVER program had a protective effect when there was increased proximity to conflict, we estimated these models separately for the treatment and control groups and compare the difference in the coefficients. As conflict encroached, there was a shift in intrahousehold decision making that suggests less coordination between spouses and fewer decisions made jointly, along with a greater acceptance of intimate partner violence among women. We also found increases in other outcomes, such as men’s group membership, and women’s and men’s access to credit. These changes may be attributable to how communities responded and how humanitarian aid was delivered. We found that the SELEVER program had a protective effect on men’s work balance and the amount of time that both women and men spent working. Notably, however, women spent more time on childcare activities as conflict become closer. |
| Keywords: | gender; women's empowerment; conflicts; randomized controlled trials; fragility; Burkina Faso; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:180989 |
| By: | Eléonore Pérès (Université Paris-Saclay); Roland Lehoucq (CEA - CEA- Saclay - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives); Jerome Santolini (CEA - CEA- Saclay - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives); Cléo Collomb (IUT de Cachan); François Cluzel (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Guillaume Blanc (UPCité - Université Paris Cité, IJCLab - Laboratoire de Physique des 2 Infinis Irène Joliot-Curie - IN2P3 - Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GDR Labos 1point5); Valentin Graillat (ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | This exhibition takes us to the year 2055, to a planet where ecosystems and peoples are thriving. It highlights innovations that respect Earth's limits and serve the well-being of all communities—human and non-human alike.And yet, today, an ecological and climate disaster is underway. Innovation—often reduced to technological innovation—is presented as a miracle solution, when in reality everything is connected: our lifestyles, the climate, geopolitics, the economic system, freshwater shortages, and more. Trying to solve one problem without thinking systemically doesn't make sense.So how did we get there? In this fictional and "desirable" future, what does it mean to innovate? What questions does it raise for research, technology, and engineering? This journey through time opens up a new imagination—one that motivates and inspires optimism. |
| Abstract: | Cette exposition nous projette en 2055, sur une planète Terre où les écosystèmes et les peuples se portent bien. Elle y met en lumière des innovations qui respectent les limites de la Terre, au service du bien-être de toutes les populations, humaines et non-humaines. Pourtant, aujourd'hui, un désastre écologique et climatique est en cours. L'innovation — au sens d'innovation technologique — est présentée comme la solution miracle, alors qu'en réalité tout est lié : nos modes de vie, le climat, la géopolitique, le système économique, les pénuries d'eau douce, etc. Innover pour résoudre un problème sans penser de manière systémique est un non-sens. Alors, comment avons-nous fait ? Dans cet avenir, fictif et « désirable », que veut dire innover ? Quelles questions se posent pour les métiers de la recherche, des techniques et de l'ingénierie ? Ce voyage temporel nous ouvre un nouvel imaginaire motivant et source d'optimisme. |
| Keywords: | fiction, low-tech, plancher social, social foundation, systémique, systemic, imagination, innovation, limites planétaires, planetary boundaries |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05534045 |
| By: | Yuqun Zhou |
| Abstract: | Climate-driven flood risk increasingly necessitates managed retreat through government buyout programmes, yet empirical evidence documents substantial racial and economic disparities in programme implementation. Here we develop a three-level Stackelberg game to analyse how federal-local cost-sharing arrangements generate inequitable outcomes through strategic interactions among federal authorities, local governments, and heterogeneous homeowners. Our model reveals three distinct mechanisms driving inequity: differential discount rates across income groups, local governments' tax-base preservation incentives, and participation thresholds that exclude fiscally constrained communities. Numerical analysis of 34, 493 households across nine flood-prone US regions demonstrates that the current Federal Emergency Management Agency 75/25 cost-sharing arrangement produces a relocation ratio gap of 0.26--low-income households relocate at roughly one-quarter the rate of high-income households. Achieving near-equity requires federal cost shares of at least 85%, though equity-weighted mechanisms can attain similar outcomes at 25% lower cost. These findings provide a theoretical foundation for understanding observed disparities and identify policy levers for more equitable climate adaptation. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.23379 |
| By: | François Aventur; Saad-Ellah Berhili; Amine Chamkhi (France Travail (French Employment Agency)) |
| Abstract: | Based on the use of the survey with a representative sample of companies in the Moroccan formal sector, the technical or behavioural skills sought by employers during recruitment and the place they give to the possession of diplomas and degrees are highlighted. Significant differences emerge depending in particular on the level of qualification of the jobs targeted and according to the families of professions considered. |
| Abstract: | A partir de l'exploitation de l'enquête panel ONMT-CIDE 2022 auprès d'un échantillon représentatif des entreprises du secteur formel marocain, sont mises en évidence les compétences techniques ou comportementales recherchées par les employeurs lors des recrutements et la place qu'ils accordent à la détention d'un diplôme. Des différenciations importantes se font jour selon notamment le niveau de qualification des emplois visés et selon les familles de métiers considérés. |
| Keywords: | certification, Morocco, relationship skills, professional knowledge, hiring criteria, recruitment, savoir professionnel, recrutement, Maroc, critère d’embauche, compétence relationnelle |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05530087 |
| By: | Wishnu Badrawani (Bank Indonesia); Citra Amanda (Bank Indonesia); Meily Ika Permata (Bank Indonesia); Carla Sheila Wulandari (Bank Indonesia); Novi Maryaningsih (Bank Indonesia); Rinorsa Duane A (Bank Indonesia); Ridha Nur Huzaifah (Bank Indonesia); Adinda Diyah Ayu Permata Sari (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Permintaan uang, yang sebelumnya menjadi indikator utama dalam kebijakan monetary targeting, mulai ditinggalkan oleh banyak bank sentral sejak dekade 1990an. Perubahan struktural dalam perekonomian dan kemajuan teknologi menjadi faktor utama dalam pergeseran ini. Meskipun demikian, jumlah uang beredar tetap dijadikan salah satu indikator pendukung dalam kerangka kebijakan moneter. Keterbatasan GDP nominal dalam merepresentasikan nilai barang dan jasa digital memberikan tantangan dalam perhitungan velositas uang di era digital. Penelitian ini memperkenalkan konsep baru mengenai velositas uang digital sebagai pengukuran peredaran uang dalam konteks ekonomi digital. Menggunakan data sistem pembayaran dari Bank Indonesia periode Januari 2006 hingga Desember 2024, penelitian ini menghitung velositas uang digital dengan mengagregasi nilai transaksi dari APMK, mobile banking, internet banking, dan uang elektronik. Metode Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS IV) dan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) digunakan untuk menjelaskan peran inovasi pembayaran digital dalam memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui kecepatan uang digital. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa inovasi pembayaran digital memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui tiga transmisi, salah satunya melalui kecepatan uang digital sebagai jalur konsumsi. Selain itu, data sistem pembayaran lebih efektif dalam menjelaskan kecepatan uang digital dibandingkan dengan kecepatan uang konvensional dalam ekonomi yang semakin terdigitalisasi. Oleh karena itu, Bank sentral dapat mempertimbangkan konsep velositas uang digital sebagai indikator pelengkap dalam kerangka kebijakan moneter. Kebijakan untuk industri sistem pembayaran ritel perlu difokuskan pada upaya mendorong transaksi digital, dengan penguatan manajemen risiko pada PJP/PIP yang diimbangi dengan literasi dan perlindungan konsumen. |
| Keywords: | Kecepatan uang digital, data sitem pembayaran, pertumbuhan ekonomi |
| JEL: | E41 E42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp162025 |
| By: | Shih-Keng Yen; Ernesto F. L. Amaral |
| Abstract: | Drawing on American Community Survey data, this study examines how whites’ relative socioeconomic standing vis-à-vis nonwhite neighbors affects the association between minority presence and white out-mobility. Moving beyond the racial preferences versus racial proxy debate, we integrate group competition and contact theories with status theory to conceptualize “racial status” as whites’ first-order income rank relative to the subgroup status of Black, Hispanic, and Asian residents at the census tract level. Multilevel linear probability models show that whites lacking advantaged status are generally more likely to move. However, the positive association between Black or Asian concentration and white departure is weaker among status-disadvantaged whites, while the negative association with Hispanic concentration is stronger. These patterns lend greater support to contact theory than to group competition theory. By foregrounding relative status, the study demonstrates that racial and socioeconomic mechanisms are intertwined in shaping white residential mobility. |
| Keywords: | White out-mobility, racial status, residential segregation, group competition and contact theory, neighborhood racial composition |
| JEL: | R23 J15 Z13 D31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-19 |
| By: | Aleksei Nemtyrev; Otilia Boldea |
| Abstract: | Local projection (LP) and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) are commonly employed to estimate dynamic causal effects of macroeconomic policies at multiple horizons. With enough lags as controls, LP estimators have little bias but their variance can increase with the horizon due to accumulating additional shocks. Because they typically employ fewer lags or suffer from local misspecification, SVAR estimators typically incur higher bias, but their variance decreases with the horizon due to exponentiation. We propose to target the LP estimators towards their SVAR counterparts - constructed with fewer lags than LP at each horizon - to reduce their variance at the cost of incurring some bias. The resulting targeted LP estimator is a linear combination of the LP and SVAR estimators. We propose choosing this linear combination optimally to minimize the mean-squared error of the new estimator. Our simulations show that, under a locally misspecified SVAR model, targeting substantially reduces the LP variance at longer horizons while maintaining near-nominal coverage in small samples when a double bootstrap is employed. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.00248 |
| By: | Phoenix, Daniel M. (Virginia Tech) |
| Abstract: | Ecological modernization and ecomodernism assume that liberal democracies can address their ecological challenges. However, scholars seem to overlook that each rests on distinct theoretical assumptions and political programs. This paper compares the two approaches and analyzes their practical implications. Ecological modernization and ecomodernism embrace rationalist and reformist environmental politics to achieve absolute decoupling through Green New Deals. Ecological modernization calls for market-led precautionary innovation regulated by governments and supported by green consumerism. In contrast, ecomodernists advocate for state-driven proactionary and comprehensive innovation and are dismissive of demand-side policies. These differences point to three policy implications. First, the precautionary principle might need careful reconsideration to reconcile economic and environmental performance. Second, eco-innovation may require a stronger commitment from nation states to implement effective supply-side policies. Third, accelerated absolute decoupling requires promoting and setting rational consumption targets. Together, these implications involve dilemmas of technological and social innovation that liberal democracies should navigate to meet sustainability goals. |
| Date: | 2026–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nv5f7_v1 |
| By: | Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg |
| Abstract: | Die deutsche Wirtschaft hatte sich zum Ende vergangenen Jahres hin stabilisiert; viele Konjunkturindikatoren entwickelten sich positiv. Die Wachstumschancen für 2026 und 2027 wurden aufgrund der von der Koalitionsregierung auf den Weg gebrachten fiskalpolitischen Ausgabenprogramme und Fördermaßnahmen günstig eingeschätzt. Mit dem Irankrieg und den dadurch ausgelösten Preisschocks bei Öl und Gas haben sich die Perspektiven für Inflation und Wachstum - nicht nur in Deutschland, sondern weltweit - jedoch zunächst verschlechtert. Die weitere Entwicklung im Irankonflikt ist unklar - hier wird davon ausgegangen, dass sich das Kriegsgeschehen bis spätestens Jahresmitte allenfalls auf das Gebiet des Iran beschränkt und die Straße von Hormus wieder frei passierbar ist. Öl- und Gaspreise würden sich dann wieder in Richtung des Vorkriegsniveaus bewegen. Die für 2026/2027 angelegte Erholung der deutschen Wirtschaft könnte dann in der zweiten Hälfte dieses Jahres neu "Fahrt aufnehmen". Unter diesen Bedingungen erwartet das HWWI für 2026 ein jahresdurchschnittliches Wirtschaftswachstum von ¾ % (vor Kriegsausbruch: 1 ½ %) und für 2027 eins von 1 ½ %. Die Inflationsrate für die Verbraucherpreise in Deutschland bewegte sich in letzter Zeit um die Stabilitätsmarke von 2 %. Dies war nicht zuletzt günstigen Energiepreisen zu verdanken. Hier hat sich die Lage nun drastisch gedreht. Davon wird in den kommenden Monaten ein deutlicher Inflationsschub ausgehen; bis Mitte dieses Jahres könnte die Inflationsrate auf 3 % steigen. Bei der hier unterstellten Entwicklung würde die Inflationsrate sich bis Ende dieses Jahres wieder in Richtung 2 % bewegen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2026 würde sie dann 2 ½ % betragen, 2027 könnte sie wieder 2 % erreichen. Die geopolitischen und geoökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen bergen erhebliche Risiken für diese Prognose. Die weitere Entwicklung im US-IranKonflikt ist unklar. Bei Eskalation, wie größeren Zerstörungen von Öl- und Gasanlagen auch in den anderen Golfstaaten oder längerer Blockierung der Straße von Hormus, müssten die Inflationsprognose nach oben und die Wachstumsprognose nach unten angepasst werden. Umso wichtiger ist, dass die Koalitionsregierung die Strukturreformen weiter vorantreibt und die Sonderverschuldungsmöglichkeiten ausschließlich für zusätzliche Investitionen verwendet werden; eine Umschichtung von Ausgaben aus dem eigentlichen Kernhaushalt würde die möglichen Wachstumsimpulse mindern. |
| Abstract: | The German economy had stabilised towards the end of last year; many economic indicators developed positively. The growth opportunities for 2026 and 2027 were assessed favourably due to the fiscal spending programmes and support measures launched by the coalition government. However, with the Iran war and the resulting price shocks for oil and gas, the prospects for inflation and growth - not only in Germany, but worldwide - have initially deteriorated. The further development of the Iran conflict is unclear - here it is assumed that the war will be limited to the territory of Iran by the middle of the year at the latest and that the Strait of Hormuz will be freely passable again. Oil and gas prices would then move back towards pre-war levels. The recovery of the German economy, scheduled for 2026/2027, could then "pick up speed" again in the second half of this year. Under these conditions, the HWWI expects average annual economic growth of 3/4% for 2026 (before the outbreak of war: 1 1/2%) and one of 1 1/2% for 2027. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwifo:338130 |
| By: | Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab; Karim, Ridwan |
| Abstract: | Identifying threshold effects of extreme heat is key to understanding the true scale of climate-related risks to human capital development. This paper investigates how extreme heat shapes adolescent schooling and labor outcomes in rural Bangladesh, combining household survey data on adolescents with high-resolution temperature records to estimate the effects of prior-year, cumulative, and early-life heat exposure. We identify a precise temperature threshold at 36°C, above which each additional day reduces school attendance by 3.1 percentage points and increases child labor by 2.5 percentage points. Below this threshold, moderate heat (30-36°C) shows minimal single-year effects, though cumulative exposure over three years reveals significant negative impacts, indicating limited household adaptation. Effects are disproportionately concentrated among girls, who shift primarily toward household work rather than wage labor. Three interconnected channels drive these effects: heat-induced income shocks (11% reduction in household income), increased domestic labor demands from heat-related illness, and restrictive gender norms that amplify these impacts by magnifying girls’ household responsibilities. Extending the analysis to early-life conditions, exposure during the first 1, 000 days also reduces adolescent schooling probability by 3.4-3.8 percentage points, with strongest effects at ages one and two. Boys show slightly larger early-life effects, contrasting with girls’ greater vulnerability to contemporaneous exposure, suggesting distinct mechanisms operating through biological development versus gendered household labor allocation. The findings point to both immediate income-mediated responses and long-term developmental pathways, with implications for temperature-triggered social protection, school infrastructure investments, and early-life health interventions. |
| Keywords: | heat stress; schools; children; rural areas; labour; heatwaves; child labour; climate change; adolescents; Bangladesh; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180558 |
| By: | Demary, Vera; Küper, Malte |
| Abstract: | Er fächert das Thema jedoch umfassender auf und gliedert sich wie folgt: Kapitel 2 zeigt auf, welche Standortfaktoren für Rechenzentren als Kern der KI-Infrastruktur allgemein von Bedeutung sind. Darauf aufbauend untersucht Kapitel 3 die KI-Infrastruktur in NRW und deren benötigten Ausbau, insbesondere mit einem Blick auf mittelständische Unternehmen, eingehend. Kapitel 4 widmet sich ausführlich dem Zusammenhang zwischen KI-Infrastruktur und Energieaspekten und leitet daraus spezifische Implikationen für NRW ab. KI-Infrastruktur sollte auch vor dem Hintergrund der geopolitischen Friktionen im Sinne von Wertschöpfungsketten gedacht werden, um Souveränität in den Fokus zu rücken. Diese Zusammenhänge analysiert Kapitel 5 für NRW. Kapitel 6 schließt mit Ableitungen für das Bundesland. KI ist neben der Klimatransformation das große Transformationsthema für die deutsche Wirtschaft in den kommenden Jahren. Die Technologie bietet umfassende Potenziale - um sie heben zu können, ist jedoch eine leistungsfähige, KI-gerechte Infrastruktur Voraussetzung. Unternehmen in NRW nutzen zunehmend KI in ihren Prozessen und Produkten (Statistisches Landesamt NRW, 2026): Im Jahr 2024 gaben knapp 20 Prozent der nordrhein-westfälischen Unternehmen an, KI einzusetzen. Das entspricht einer Steigerung von fast 60 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Angesichts des geringen Anteils bei gleichzeitig umfassenden Chancen durch KI ist für die nächsten Jahre von einer weiteren deutlichen Zunahme auszugehen. Dies sollte von einer Weiterentwicklung der KI-Infrastruktur in NRW begleitet werden. Oftmals fokussiert sich die Diskussion zu dieser Infrastruktur auf die KI-Rechenkapazitäten in entsprechenden Rechenzentren. Tatsächlich sollte der Begriff KI-Infrastruktur jedoch weitergefasst werden, wie Kapitel 3 zeigt. Nicht nur in Bezug auf die Rechenzentren ist die Situation in Deutschland und NRW auch geopolitisch geprägt. Die wachsende Nachfrage nach KI-Rechenleistung trifft in Deutschland und Europa auf begrenzte Rechenzentrums- und Infrastrukturkapazitäten. Zahlreiche Unternehmen greifen daher auf Rechenkapazitäten außerhalb Europas zurück, insbesondere in den USA. Dieser Rückstand wird zunehmend als strategisch problematisch eingeschätzt, da er nicht nur wirtschaftliche Nachteile, sondern auch Risiken für Datensouveränität und geopolitische Resilienz mit sich bringt. Auch für die Unternehmen selbst ist der Standort der Rechenzentren, deren Dienste sie nutzen, von zentraler Bedeutung. Nach Ewald et al. (2024) geben 45 Prozent der Unternehmen an, dass es für sie wichtig ist, dass sich die von ihnen genutzten Rechenzentren in Deutschland befinden. Ansiedlungen innerhalb Deutschlands wirken zudem datenschutzrechtlichen Bedenken entgegen, die knapp die Hälfte der Unternehmen als Grund nennt, bislang keine Cloud-Technologien zu nutzen. Dabei mangelt es nicht an privater Investitionsbereitschaft. Entscheidend sind vielmehr geeignete Standort- und Rahmenbedingungen, die den Ausbau von KI-Infrastruktur im Allgemeinen und KI-Rechenzentren im Speziellen in Deutschland ermöglichen. Mit Blick auf die installierte Rechenzentrumskapazität ist NRW bereits heute bundesweit auf Platz drei (vgl. Abbildung 1-1). Durch die Vielzahl an Projektankündigungen kann dieser Platz in den kommenden Jahren möglicherweise sogar noch ausgebaut werden, wobei ein deutlicher Abstand zum führenden Standort um Frankfurt verbleibt. Das dena et al. (2025) sieht im Milliarden-Engagement von Microsoft im Rheinischen Revier (WDR, 2024) und dem damit verbundenen Bau mehrerer Groß-Rechenzentren ein Anzeichen, dass sich in der Region in den nächsten Jahren weitere Rechenzentren ansiedeln werden. Die zunehmende räumliche Bündelung von Rechenzentren folgt dabei häufig dem Prinzip der sogenannten Data Gravity: Bestehende Daten- und Rechenkapazitäten ziehen weitere datenintensive Anwendungen an, da Datenverlagerungen aufwendig sind und geringe Latenzen erforderlich bleiben. Cloud-Anbieter verstärken diesen Effekt, indem sie aus Gründen der Ausfallsicherheit meist drei oder mehre Rechenzentren innerhalb einer Region betreiben (dena et al., 2025; IW Consult/Detecon, 2025). |
| Abstract: | Preconditions for Competitive AI Locations Data centres-the backbone of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-depend on a bundle of critical enabling conditions. These include reliable and efficient permitting procedures, a sufficiently skilled workforce, comprehensive fibre and mobile network coverage, adequate electricity grid capacities and access to renewable energy, suitable industrial land, secure water availability, and public acceptance at the local level. Ensuring that these framework conditions are in place is essential for attracting and scaling AI-related infrastructure investments. Strengths and Bottlenecks of AI Infrastructure in North Rhine-Westphalia North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has developed a dynamic and growing foundation for AI infrastructure. The region benefits from the planned expansion of large-scale data centre capacities and strong industrial demand for AI applications. At the same time, several structural challenges persist. Fibre network coverage currently stands at around 43 percent, putting the achievement of national 2030 connectivity targets at risk. Labour shortages affect nearly all AI-relevant technical professions, while cybersecurity capabilities remain uneven across municipalities. In addition, data-related capabilities within firms are limited, with only a minority of companies able to effectively manage and utilise data resources. Energy as a Key Location Factor Growing interest in AI applications is driving up electricity demand. Already today, data centres account for approximately 4 percent of Germany's total electricity consumption, making access to reliable and affordable energy an increasingly important factor in location decisions for new data centre investments. Grid connection procedures represent a potential short-term bottleneck that can delay the commissioning of new facilities. Improved coordination of connection requests and faster permitting procedures could help alleviate these constraints. Security of supply continues to be one of the most important location factors for data centres-and remains a key strength of both Germany and NRW. NRW's Role in AI Value Chains and Europe's Technological Sovereignty NRW is comparatively well positioned in the industrial segments of the AI value chain, including system integration, application development, and data management. However, the region remains dependent on global actors when it comes to advanced AI chips and the development of large-scale foundation models. Significant potential lies in the use of European industrial and domain-specific data, as well as in the development and application of sectoral data spaces, for example in the chemical, automotive, and healthcare industries. Policy Recommendations for NRW The expansion of AI infrastructure in NRW is currently constrained by bottlenecks in networks, permitting procedures, resources, and skilled labour. At the same time, the region offers significant location advantages that can be leveraged through clear policy guidance and forward-looking resource planning. Key policy priorities include strengthening strategic governance and implementing harmonised digital permitting processes to accelerate investment decisions; expanding network infrastructure through prioritised fibre deployment and 5G/6G rollout; improving access for SMEs to data, computing capacity, and AI applications; enhancing technological sovereignty through multicloud strategies, open standards, and federated data spaces; and promoting sustainable AI solutions by integrating data centres into regional energy and heating systems, for example through waste heat utilisation and demand-side flexibility |
| Keywords: | Künstliche Intelligenz, Infrastrukturpolitik, Standortpolitik, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Deutschland |
| JEL: | H54 O33 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:338076 |
| By: | Epper, Thomas (CNRS, IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France); Ibsen, Kristoffer (Aarhus University); Koch, Alexander (Aarhus University); Nafziger, Julia (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | University dropout is costly, making it a policy priority to identify factors that predict dropout. Using a survey experiment with incoming first-year students linked to long-run administrative outcomes, we assess which information improves dropout prediction beyond standard university records. A small number of targeted, study-specific survey items - especially motivation and expectations about degree completion - substantially improve predictive performance. By contrast, widely used measures of general preferences and traits (such as grit and self-control) add little incremental value - a result that we qualitatively replicate in a large population. Our findings suggest inexpensive, scalable ways to improve dropout predictions. |
| Keywords: | dropout, non-cognitive skills, motivation, economic preferences, beliefs, education, machine learning |
| JEL: | I23 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18439 |
| By: | Elmir Mukhtarov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ali Hajili (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Aygun Garayeva (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan) |
| Abstract: | Effective monetary policy requires maintaining the short-term interbank rate close to the policy rate while limiting its volatility, ensuring smooth transmission, and reducing banks' liquidity and interest rate risks. This paper seeks to identify and explain the drivers of volatility in short-term interbank rates, while examining the impact of the reserve averaging framework on banking sector liquidity. Drawing on evidence from an emerging market, this study demonstrates that deviations of cumulative reserves from their trend exert a significant influence on interbank rate volatility. Specifically, the results identify distinct states in the money market: a high-responsiveness state and a low-responsiveness state, depending on prevailing liquidity conditions. The findings imply that central banks should closely monitor cumulative reserve positions and proactively guide liquidity toward its trend path. |
| Keywords: | overnight interbank rate; required reserve; markov-switching model; liquidity state |
| JEL: | C22 E53 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp07-2026 |
| By: | Bindseil, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | In essence, the currently large stablecoins are electronic money issued by narrow balance sheet vehicles into a distributed ledger (or a "programmable platform"). Many believe that they will have significant success as a new form of money. Members of the current US administration expect that US stablecoins would circulate globally and support demand for treasuries and the international role of the USD. Related to the latter, recent industry initiatives plan to rely on US stablecoins as a settlement asset for cross-border payments ("stablecoin sandwich"). We discuss the comparative advantages of banks vs. non-banks as stablecoin issuers, as well as between MiCAR compliant and Genius Act compliant coins. We then review the implications of large global stablecoins on the financial system and discuss financial stability risks and remedies. We compare regulatory approaches across some jurisdictions and note that different directions have been taken, although most authorities seem to agree that stablecoins must not be remunerated. We discuss additional ideas how to address the risks associated with successful stablecoins, propose some basic regulatory principles and argue that prohibiting the remuneration of stablecoins does not necessarily foster financial stability. We suggest three options fulfilling the proposed regulatory principles. |
| Keywords: | money, stablecoin, blockchain, narrow banks, financial stability, run, disintermediation |
| JEL: | E40 E50 F33 G10 G20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:338085 |
| By: | Boero, Riccardo (NILU - the Climate and Environmental Research Institute); Lysenko, Olga; Virgolino, Ana |
| Abstract: | Social life cycle assessment (SLCA) is increasingly discussed as a socio-economic evidence stream for Safe and Sustainable by Design (SSbD), but its practical suitability for design-stage decision-making remains unclear. We conducted a protocol-registered systematic review (OSF: 10.17605/OSF.IO/YEFP5) following PRISMA 2020 to assess methods, data, indicators, tools, and SSbD fit/gaps in SLCA practice. Searches covering 2000--2024 (conducted July 16-17, 2025) were run in OpenAIRE, Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, and Dimensions, yielding 7, 296 records. After two screening rounds, 368 records were included. Extraction was performed in five independent variable groups using a human-in-the-loop workflow designed to adhere to open-science principles of transparency, inspectability, and reproducibility. Results show a field anchored in UNEP-SETAC guidance (71.2%), but with substantial reporting gaps (27.7% without explicit definitional basis; 60.9% without system-boundary specification). Data inputs were dominated by labor statistics (96.2%) and social hotspot data (92.7%), with strong country-level granularity (90.2%). Indicator practice concentrated on risk- and impact-based approaches. Although tools were frequently documented, key metadata (licensing, maturity, integration details) were often incomplete. Explicit SSbD framing was rare (0.3%); most records were classified as unclear (62.8%) or partially applicable (37.0%) for SSbD. Current SLCA practice appears useful for broad screening but structurally misaligned with SSbD design-stage needs, especially for prospective, micro-scale decision contexts. Priority developments include prospective micro-scale SLCA, standardized SSbD socio-economic impact reporting, and explicit SLCA integration protocols within SSbD governance steps. |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fnruc_v1 |
| By: | Gerhardt, Klaus-Uwe |
| Abstract: | Why did the abolition of wage supplements in 1834 lead to a durable reorganization of poor re-lief, even though subsequent research has questioned the empirical diagnosis on which the reform was based? Revisiting the Speenhamland allowance practices (1795–1834) and the New Poor Law, this paper argues that the significance of the reform lies less in correcting economic mal-function than in redefining the principles of entitlement. Drawing on revisionist economic history, the study shows that claims of systematic wage depres-sion, labor demoralization, and demographic distortion are not robustly supported by parish-level evidence. Allowances functioned primarily as locally administered forms of income smoothing under conditions of price volatility and labor-market strain. The reform of 1834 is interpreted as a reconfiguration of entitlement in which poverty was in-creasingly framed as a matter of conduct rather than subsistence risk. Through the codification of less eligibility and the workhouse test, access to relief became structured around deterrence and behavioral assessment. This institutional shift established a conditional entitlement logic whose structural features continue to shape modern welfare arrangements. |
| Date: | 2026–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nyqs7_v1 |
| By: | McNamara, Sarah; Klein, Thilo |
| Abstract: | Educational tracking - separating students into different classes, tracks, or schools based on ability - is relatively commonplace worldwide, despite mixed evidence concerning how it affects student outcomes. Our new empirical analysis for secondary-school- aged children in Hungary provides causal evidence that students benefit from high-track attendance in terms of academic achievement and university aspirations. However, differential accession to the highest track conditional on socioeconomic background may exacerbate educational inequalities. Students from more deprived backgrounds are less likely to access the highest track, though we find they benefit at least as much from high-track attendance as their relatively better-off peers. Similarly, students with lower levels of prior achievement equally benefit from high-track attendance in terms of learning gains, and we find only minor evidence of academic peer spillovers. Overly restrictive tracking policies may therefore unnecessarily threaten educational equality goals, and in the German context, where tracking has been a cornerstone of the education system since the 19th century, particularly rigid and early tracking policies may further amplify these effects. Rethinking Germany's approach to tracking means re-centring discussions of equality in light of this new evidence for the efficiency-equity trade-off. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:338248 |
| By: | Friemer, Andreas; Warsewa, Günter |
| Abstract: | Aktuelle Transformationsprozesse erzeugen erhebliche Anpassungserfordernisse an den Arbeitsmärkten: Qualifizierung und Weiterbildung sollen dazu beitragen, neu entstehende Qualifikationsanforderungen zu decken, (Fach-)Kräfteengpässe zu entschärfen, Arbeitslosen und Geringqualifizierten Wege in akzeptable Arbeitsverhältnisse zu eröffnen und Aufstiege in hochwertigere Jobs und bessere Einkommensklassen ermöglichen. Zum Teil geht es auch darum, Quer- statt Aufstiegsmobilität zu fördern, um stabile Beschäftigung für diejenigen zu sichern, deren Arbeitsplätze im Transformationsprozess verloren gehen. Über die dafür erforderliche Weiterbildungsinfrastruktur ist allerdings relativ wenig bekannt. Vorliegende Analysen lassen vermuten, dass der Weiterbildungssektor selbst, wie viele andere Arbeitsmarktbereiche, von Fachkräftemangel, Überalterung, Qualifizierungsdefiziten und Prekarität betroffen ist und dadurch in Umfang und Funktionsfähigkeit bedroht sein könnte. Ob und in welchem Umfang der Weiterbildungssektor aktuellen und zukünftigen Anforderungen gerecht werden kann, wurde daher im Auftrag der Arbeitnehmerkammer im Bundesland Bremen untersucht. In ausführlichen Fallstudien bei sieben Weiterbildungsträgern, die das gesamte Spektrum von beruflicher Fortbildung über öffentlich finanzierte Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen bis zu allgemeiner und politischer Weiterbildung abdecken, wurde gefragt, wie sich Finanzierungs- und Marktbedingungen auf deren Personalbestand und -struktur, Rekrutierungs-, Beschäftigungs- und Arbeitsbedingungen auswirken und welche Anpassungsleistungen dazu beitragen könnten, die Funktionsweise der Weiterbildungsanbieter, ihre Attraktivität als Arbeitgeber und die Situation ihrer Beschäftigten zu verbessern. (...) |
| Abstract: | Current transformation processes lead to significant demands on labour markets: Qualifying and training are intended to meet newly emerging qualification requirements, alleviate (skilled) labour shortages, open pathways to acceptable employment for the unemployed and low-skilled, and enable advancement to higher-quality jobs and better incomes. In part, it is also about promoting lateral rather than upward mobility in order to secure stable employment for those whose jobs get lost in the transformation process. However, only little is known about the training sector's infrastructure. Existing analyses suggest that the qualifying and training sector itself, like many other labour market segments, is affected by skills shortages, an aging workforce, qualification deficits, and precarious employment, and could therefore be threatened in terms of its scope and functionality. Whether and to what extent the training sector can meet current and future requirements was therefore investigated on behalf of the Arbeitnehmerkammer Bremen (Chamber of Labour Bremen). Detailed case studies of seven providers of continuing training and education, covering the entire spectrum from professional training, publicly funded qualification and integration programs up to general and political further education, explored how financing and market conditions affect their staffing levels and structure, recruitment, employment, and working conditions. Further research questions addressed what adjustments could improve the providers' functioning, their attractiveness as employers, and the situation of their employees. (...) |
| Keywords: | Erwachsenenbildung, Weiterbildung, Arbeitskräftemangel, Arbeitsmobilität, Soziale Mobilität, Bremen, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iawraw:338086 |
| By: | Merlin Fanette (CEREQ - Centre d'études et de recherches sur les qualifications - ministère de l'Emploi, cohésion sociale et logement - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche) |
| Abstract: | Permanent contracts no longer necessarily offer the level of stability they once did. According to data from the Génération surveys, since 2020, there has been an increase in the number of young people leaving permanent contracts after their first few years of working life. The sector of activity is of key importance: some offer stable career paths despite interruptions in permanent contracts, while others are more prone to sudden terminations and long-term exits from the labour market. A sectoral map of early careers is emerging, oscillating between stability and precariousness. |
| Abstract: | Le CDI n'est plus un gage automatique de stabilité : depuis 2020, de nombreux jeunes quittent plus souvent un CDI après leurs premières années de vie active, selon les données des enquêtes Génération. Le secteur d'activité joue un rôle clé : certains offrent des parcours de stabilisation malgré des interruptions de CDI, quand d'autres exposent davantage à des ruptures subies et des sorties durables du marché du travail. Entre stabilité et précarité, se dessine une carte sectorielle des débuts de carrière. |
| Keywords: | ECONOMIC SECTOR, TERMINATION OF EMPLOYMENT CONTRACT, GENERATION 2017 SURVEY, PATHWAY TO INTEGRATION, SCHOOL-TO-WORK TRANSITION, PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT, YOUTH EMPLOYMENT, RUPTURE DU CONTRAT DE TRAVAIL, ENQUETE GENERATION 2017, TRAJECTOIRE D'INSERTION, INSERTION PROFESSIONNELLE, TRAVAIL A DUREE INDETERMINEE, EMPLOI DES JEUNES, SECTEUR ECONOMIQUE |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05536929 |
| By: | Camille Hainnaux (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Thomas Seegmuller (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of taxation of polluting products and redistribution on pollution, income and welfare inequalities. We consider a two-sector Ramsey model with a green and a polluting good, two types of households and a subsistence level of consumption for the polluting good. The environmental tax is always effective in reducing pollution regardless of the level of subsistence consumption. However, this level, together with the redistribution rate, matters at the individual level as it shapes the impact of the environmental policy on individual consumption and welfare. Looking at the stability properties of the economy, a high subsistence level of polluting consumption leads to instability or indeterminacy of the steady state, while the environmental externality reduces the scope for indeterminacy. Increasing the tax rate and redistributing more to the worker affect the occurrence of indeterminacy and instability. Considering the subsistence level of consumption and the level of redistribution among households are of importance as it determines the effects of environmental tax policy in the long term and the stability of the economy in the short term. |
| Keywords: | taxation, redistribution, pollution, inequality, heterogeneous agents, Externalities |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05538367 |
| By: | Bahnsen, Lewe; Wild, Frank |
| Abstract: | Die Studie zeigt die finanzielle Bedeutung, die Privatversicherten für die größten Leistungsbereiche des deutschen Gesundheitswesens aufweisen. Die zentralen Ergebnisse im Überblick: - Der Mehrumsatz der PKV-Versicherten beträgt im Jahr 2024 insgesamt 15, 52 Mrd. Euro. Gegenüber 2023 (14, 46 Mrd. Euro) entspricht dies einem Anstieg um 1, 06 Mrd. Euro bzw. 7, 3 %. - Den größten Mehrumsatz erzielt weiterhin die ambulant-ärztliche Versorgung mit 8, 76 Mrd. Euro (+0, 77 Mrd. Euro). 21, 8 % der Gesamteinnahmen (Vorjahr: 21, 4 %) in diesem Bereich entfallen auf PKV-Versicherte - bei einem Bevölkerungsanteil von 10, 5 %. Der Finanzierungsanteil der PKV-Versicherten übersteigt in allen betrachteten Leistungsbereichen den Bevölkerungsanteil. - Der Mehrumsatz je Arztpraxis liegt bei durchschnittlich 82.171 Euro. Dies ist eine deutliche Zunahme gegenüber dem Vorjahr (73.839 Euro). Der Anstieg fällt zum zweiten Mal hintereinander markant aus: Im Jahr 2022 lag der Mehrumsatz je Arztpraxis noch bei 64.050 Euro. - Der Mehrumsatz nahm in fast allen Leistungsbereichen zu. Im Arzneimittelbereich liegt der Mehrumsatz jetzt bei 1, 13 Mrd. Euro, nachdem er im letzten Jahr erstmals bei über 1 Mrd. Euro lag. - Die Leistungsausgaben je Versicherten erhöhten sich im Zeitraum 2014-2024 sowohl in der PKV als auch in der GKV erheblich, in der PKV um +54, 4 % und in der GKV um +50, 3 %. Der Mehrumsatz stellt den Betrag dar, der den Leistungserbringern nicht mehr zur Verfügung stünde, wenn die PKV-Versicherten zu GKV-Bedingungen versorgt würden. Er trägt damit maßgeblich zur Finanzierung von Infrastruktur, Innovation und Personal im Gesundheitswesen bei - mit positiven Effekten für die Versorgung der Gesamtbevölkerung. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wipana:338089 |
| By: | J. Jason Lu Jin A; X. Xiaopeng Lai; M. Dong Meitong; L. Wang (Audencia Business School); Y. Yaqin Zheng |
| Abstract: | While online transactions through live streaming are rising rapidly for international exchanges, we understand little about why foreign firms vary in their use of live streaming on the digital platform when operating in host markets. Drawing on institutional theory, our study investigates how institutional distance affects foreign firms' live streaming use as a digital operation strategy in the host market. Using a unique longitudinal dataset consisting of 3, 158 product-month observations from a Chinese digital platform, our findings reveal that while legal distance has a positive effect on live streaming use, digital distance has a negative impact. Moreover, firm age and platform experience significantly moderate the roles of institutional distance. These findings provide novel insights into platform-based operation strategies in international markets. |
| Keywords: | Platform experience, Digital distance, Legal distance, Live streaming use, Institutional distance |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05460935 |
| By: | Hashad, Reem; Jovanovic, Nina; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | Global food price increases and widespread inflationary shocks negatively affect poor households’ diets, particularly those of women who are more likely to be food insecure compared to men. This study evaluates the relationship between changes in food prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and poor mothers’ diets in Egypt, a country that heavily relies on imports of staple foods and is highly vulnerable to increases in international food prices. We combine food group specific governorate-level consumer price index (CPI) data with data on diets of 2, 868 poor mothers in Egypt collected before and after the onset of the war. Additionally, we examine the potential protective effect of Egypt’s large-scale food subsidy program, Tamween, whereby specific foods are sold at subsidized prices at specific retailers. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find that changes in food prices are significantly associated with changes in the composition of mothers’ diets. Mothers were less likely to consume dairy and fish and more likely to consume pulses and sweetened beverages after the war began. Poor mothers decreased consumption of unsubsidized foods, suggesting a protective role of the Egyptian food subsidy program. This paper also provides suggestive evidence that poor mothers from households engaged in agricultural production could be slightly less responsive to changes in food prices compared to mothers from households that do not engage in agricultural production. |
| Keywords: | inflation; diet; gender; poverty; mothers; dietary diversity; price volatility; Egypt; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:179553 |
| By: | Hashad, Reem; Jovanovic, Nina; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Kurdi, Sikandra |
| Abstract: | Global food price increases and widespread inflationary shocks negatively affect poor households’ diets, particularly those of women who are more likely to be food insecure compared to men. This study evaluates the relationship between changes in food prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and poor mothers’ diets in Egypt, a country that heavily relies on imports of staple foods and is highly vulnerable to increases in international food prices. We combine food group specific governorate-level consumer price index (CPI) data with data on diets of 2, 868 poor mothers in Egypt collected before and after the onset of the war. Additionally, we examine the potential protective effect of Egypt’s large-scale food subsidy program, Tamween, whereby specific foods are sold at subsidized prices at specific retailers. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find that changes in food prices are significantly associated with changes in the composition of mothers’ diets. Mothers were less likely to consume dairy and fish and more likely to consume pulses and sweetened beverages after the war began. Poor mothers decreased consumption of unsubsidized foods, suggesting a protective role of the Egyptian food subsidy program. This paper also provides suggestive evidence that poor mothers from households engaged in agricultural production could be slightly less responsive to changes in food prices compared to mothers from households that do not engage in agricultural production. |
| Keywords: | inflation; diet; gender; poverty; mothers; dietary diversity; price volatility; Egypt; Africa; Northern Africa; Middle East |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:179553 |