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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Shuvam Das; Davide Furceri; Nikhil Patel; Mr. Adrian Peralta-Alva |
| Abstract: | We build the first global quarterly narrative database of discretionary government spending actions by applying a fixed GPT–4.1 prompt to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Country Reports. The resulting series identifies exogenous spending shocks—expansions and contractions—for an unbalanced panel of 64 countries from 1952:Q1 to 2023:Q4. We validate the database by (i) replicating expert narrative coding in Romer and Romer (2019), (ii) showing that the identified shocks predict subsequent movements in measured government spending, and (iii) establishing alignment with action-based consolidation measures in Adler et al. (2024). Using country-by-country proxy SVARs that treat the narrative indicator as an internal instrument, we estimate cumulative government spending multipliers. The median multiplier is about 0.7 at horizons up to two years, with substantial heterogeneity across countries and states. Multipliers are larger in countries that are less open to trade, under fixed exchange rate regimes, during downturns, and at the zero lower bound. Political conditions also matter: multipliers are smaller when broad economic policy uncertainty and fiscal policy-specific uncertainty is high, but weak political support is associated with larger conditional multipliers. |
| Keywords: | fiscal multipliers; government spending shocks; narrative identification; large language models; text-as-data; proxy SVAR; cross-country database. |
| Date: | 2026–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/043 |
| By: | Alicia Aguilar (Banco de España, Madrid); Adriana Lojschová (National Bank of Slovakia); Carlos Canizares Martınez (Banque Centrale du Luxembourg, Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of standard monetary policy shocks on housing and other macro variables in Slovakia, a CESEE country. For that purpose, we use a non-linear local projection model which uncovers asymmetries in these effects around three different dimensions: high versus low economic growth, interest rates and inflation. The main findings in this study are as follows. First, we often find no evidence of standard monetary policy eliciting a contractionary response in house prices or housing investment. Second, evidence is weakest during recessions and periods of low interest rates or low inflation. Third, these findings may be linked to the inability of monetary policy to trigger significant contractionary effects on household lending, which in turn may be linked to the effective lower bound on interest rates, the predominance of fixed-rate mortgages in Slovakia, or interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy. We also provide a discussion on the possible country characteristics that might drive these results and policy implications. |
| JEL: | C32 C36 E42 E52 E58 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1134 |
| By: | Ferraresi, Massimiliano; Herrmann, Benedikt; Loiacono, Luisa; Rizzo, Leonzio; Secomandi, Riccardo |
| Abstract: | Can fiscal autonomy affect per capita income levels? We empirically investigate the impact of fiscal autonomy on per capita income through the proper use of local financial resources. Exploiting a natural experiment in Italy, we compare municipalities in the Autonomous Provinces of Trento and Bolzano, which retain and manage almost all their tax revenues, with neighbouring municipalities in Lombardy and Veneto, where only a small fraction of revenues is autonomously managed. Using a spatial fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effect of financial fiscal autonomy on per capita income. We address the potential endogeneity of financial fiscal autonomy with a dummy variable identifying municipalities that manage almost all their tax revenues. Our findings show that higher levels of local financial fiscal autonomy increase per capita income: a one percentage point rise in the financial fiscal autonomy raises per capita income by 0.2–0.7%. This effect is largely driven by higher municipal-level administrative quality in municipalities with stronger fiscal autonomy. The results highlight that granting fiscal autonomy can enhance local economic performance. |
| Keywords: | fiscal autonomy; decentralization; regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137552 |
| By: | Pablo Beramendi; Melissa Rogers |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how spatial inequalities interact with asymmetric decentralization to shape redistributive effort and distributional outcomes. Using cross-national evidence on top income and wealth shares, progressive tax structures, and measures of asymmetric regional authority and legislative malapportionment, the authors find: (i) higher spatial inequality is associated with greater concentration at the top of the income and wealth distributions; (ii) asymmetric regional authority is, on average, linked to lower inequality and higher progressive tax shares, though its egalitarian association weakens as spatial inequality rises; and (iii) legislative malapportionment correlates with higher inequality and lower progressive taxation and typically amplifies the inequality-raising role of spatial disparities. The results highlight that institutional asymmetries condition the capacity and willingness of states to tax and redistribute under pronounced territorial disparities. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric decentralization, spatial inequality, progressive taxation, malapportionment, regional authority, redistribution |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ida:wpaper:wp2609 |
| By: | Alexander Aue; Sebastian K\"uhnert; Gregory Rice; Jeremy VanderDoes |
| Abstract: | AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to function spaces. However, functional ARCH and generalized ARCH (GARCH) processes established in the literature have thus far been restricted to model ``pointwise'' variances. In this paper, we propose a new ARCH framework for data residing in general separable Hilbert spaces that accounts for the full evolution of the conditional covariance operator. We define a general operator-level ARCH model. For a simplified Constant Conditional Correlation version of the model, we establish conditions under which such models admit strictly and weakly stationary solutions, finite moments, and weak serial dependence. Additionally, we derive consistent Yule--Walker-type estimators of the infinite-dimensional model parameters. The practical relevance of the model is illustrated through simulations and a data application to high-frequency cumulative intraday returns. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.10272 |
| By: | Shinsuke ASAKAWA; Makiko NAKAMURO; Shintaro YAMAGUCHI |
| Abstract: | This study investigates why “serial order effects†—systematic distortions in judgment caused by the presentation order of candidates—arise in sequential expert evaluations, and whether such effects can be mitigated. Focusing on Japan’s largest piano competition, we combine long-term observational data from 2004–2022 with data from a cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in 2023. The result drawn from the observational data reveals a robust serial order effect: performers who appear earlier in the sequence consistently receive lower scores. This disadvantage is particularly pronounced in competitions with fewer participants and with highly skilled performers. These patterns are difficult to reconcile with fatigue-based explanations and instead suggest a calibration mechanism, whereby judges—motivated to maintain internal consistency—avoid extreme evaluations in the early stages when the overall distribution of performance quality is still uncertain, thereby suppressing initial scores. We then run a RCT to evaluate an information treatment that explicitly informs judges about the existence and magnitude of serial order effects using historical data. The results show no strong evidence that the intervention significantly mitigates order effects overall. However, we find suggestive evidence that the serial order effect is partially mitigated for highly skilled performers. The results suggest the need for institutional or procedural solutions to address order effects in sequential evaluation settings. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:26010 |
| By: | Mike Eggleston |
| Abstract: | Bank On account openings surpassed 4.8 million in 2024—a 20% increase from 2023—according to data reported by financial institutions to our BOND Hub. |
| Keywords: | Bank On accounts; Bank On National Data Hub; affordable banking |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:102818 |
| By: | Kabeer, Naila |
| Abstract: | The structures of patriarchy are characterized by considerable variety across the world, but they have one feature in common which appears with monotonous regularity across a range of different contexts: an asymmetrical gender division of labour which assigns primary responsibility for unpaid care and domestic work to women and girls within the household while giving men privileged access to material resources and economic opportunities. This asymmetry, and the form that it takes in different contexts, is foundational to the varying patterns of gender injustice we see across the world. This paper focuses on how it shapes various forms of gender disadvantage in the economic domain and its implications for gendered risks of poverty and illbeing. |
| Keywords: | unpaid and domestic work; labour markets; vertical and horizontal segregation |
| JEL: | J70 D10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137181 |
| By: | Garbers, Julio (LISER); Gregory, Terry (LISER) |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel firm-level indicator of Artificial Intelligence adoption in Europe (MAP-AI) by extracting information from more than three million firm websites in Belgium, France, Germany, and Luxembourg between 2016 and 2024 using a Large Language Model. The indicator captures realized AI use as publicly signaled by firms, rather than potential exposure, and distinguishes firms by their role in the AI ecosystem and the type of AI technologies employed. Validation against human-coded benchmarks and external data confirms high accuracy. We show that the share of AI-active firms increased from 1% in 2016 to 12% in 2024, with a marked acceleration after 2022. This growth reflects a structural shift toward widespread adoption and more integrated AI use, including generative AI. AI adoption is concentrated among larger, younger, knowledge-intensive firms in urban regions, with workforce skills emerging as a key driver. Foundational data skills are necessary for adoption, while specialized AI skills—such as machine learning and natural language processing—act as strong complements, highlighting the central role of human capital in AI diffusion. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, firm-level data, Large Language Models, AI diffusion, human capital, skills |
| JEL: | O33 C81 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18434 |
| By: | Mohamed Ali Abdelwahed (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | Analyse spatiale et structurelle des EHPAD parisiens dotés d'unité Alzheimer ou d'unité de vie protégée et proposant les services suivants : présence d'un infirmier de nuit, présence d'un médecin coordonnateur et Conventionnement avec Dispositif(s) d'Appui à la Coordination (DAC) |
| Keywords: | EHPAD, Unité Alzheimer, Taux d'occupation |
| Date: | 2026–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05538842 |
| By: | Heidi Hartmann; Ana Hernández Kent |
| Abstract: | Social Security benefits for recipients' spouses and ex-spouses often help women, who tend to earn less than men and are likely to have fewer retirement resources. |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102726 |
| By: | Anna L. Paulson |
| Abstract: | At the 2026 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Philadelphia Fed President and CEO Anna Paulson engaged in a discussion with San Francisco Fed President and CEO Mary C. Daly following the presentation of the 2026 report, "Private Canaries: The Value of Private-Sector Data For U.S. Monetary Policy Making." |
| Date: | 2026–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:102883 |
| By: | Ferrari, Giorgio (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Schütz, Tim Niclas (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study an intertemporal utility maximization problem in which an investor chooses consumption and portfolio strategies in the presence of a stochastic factor and a no-borrowing constraint. In the spirit of the Kim–Omberg model, the stochastic factor represents the excess return of the risky asset and follows an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, capturing the mean reversion of expected excess returns—a feature well supported by empirical evidence in financial markets. The investor seeks to maximize expected utility from consumption, subject to the constraint that wealth remains nonnegative at all times. To address the dynamic no-borrowing constraint, we use Lagrange duality to transform the primal problem into a singular control problem in the dual space. We then characterize the solution to the dual singular control problem via an auxiliary two-dimensional optimal stopping problem featuring stochastic volatility, and subsequently retrieve the primal value function as well as the optimal portfolio and consumption plans. Finally, a numerical study is conducted to derive economic and financial implications. |
| Keywords: | optimal consumption and portfolio choice, Kim-Omberg model, no-borrowing constraint, singular stochastic control, optimal stopping, stochastic volatility |
| Date: | 2026–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bie:wpaper:766 |
| By: | Wollenweber, Alexander; Wang, Dieter; Ranger, Nicola |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the uneven consequences of nature and biodiversity loss for the cost of sovereign government borrowing. A growing literature documents the adverse economic consequences of climate change. However, little attention has been devoted to the influence of nature degradation on sovereign bond yield spreads, which determine government’s funding costs and fiscal policy space. Employing panel interactive fixed effects and quantile regressions with latent factors, we extend the literature to the nature context with three proxies for countries’ nature-related financial vulnerability. Across 28 advanced and 25 emerging economies over the 2000-2020 period and 2, 5, and 10-year bond maturities, our results indicate substantial average impacts from within-country degradation for sovereign borrowing costs whilst controlling for conventional economic and institutional determinants, and common global financial factors. Our second-stage heterogeneity analysis reveals significant variation in impacts. We find that countries with elevated sovereign risk are disproportionally impacted by nature vulnerability, up to three times the average marginal effect of forty-to-fifty basis points for countries in the 90th percentile of borrowing costs. Our novel empirical results underline the asymmetric macro-criticality of nature for sovereign borrowing costs with disproportional effects that exacerbate existing macro-financial fragilities. Yet the financial effects are unlikely to be confined to debt-distressed, high-risk and nature-dependent countries, considering the integrated nature of global supply chains and sovereign debt markets. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137486 |
| By: | Cheang, Bryan; Mehrotra, Praharsh |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the limits of mission‐directed entrepreneurial states by drawing on the theory of recombinant innovation and F.A. Hayek's insights on the spontaneous growth of knowledge in society. First, the use of discretionary policymaking curtails the range of knowledge generated in the process of social interaction, limiting the scope for ideas to be fortuitously recombined. Second, by privileging a single overarching mission, the state may foster a social culture that encourages compliance with authority, limiting the epistemic curiosity in individuals necessary for creative innovation. We make this argument through a comparative historical analysis of Singapore and Hong Kong, which adopted divergent approaches to development. Despite rapid growth in both, the former's technocratic governance came at the expense of its creative sectors, while the latter's reliance on spontaneous solutions enabled strong creative industries to develop despite little state support. By using creative performance as a proxy for innovation‐led development, we exemplify the limits of top‐down governance. Rather than fostering creative destruction, the entrepreneurial state may end up being a creative destroyer. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137148 |
| By: | Kumar Burman, Amit; Bahera, Biswajit |
| Abstract: | Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) are increasingly recognized as engines of inclusive agricultural growth. By enabling small and marginal farmers to aggregate produce, access inputs, and improve bargaining power, FPOs hold the promise of transforming rural economies. Yet, many continue to struggle with weak governance structures, limited managerial capacity, and challenges in accessing markets and finance. To unlock their true potential, FPOs need systematic capacity-building. Recognizing this, the Department of Agriculture and Farmers’ Empowerment (DA&FE), Government of Odisha, in collaboration with IFPRI, organized state-level trainings to strengthen FPOs across the state. Over three days, 130 representatives, including board members, chief executive officers (CEOs), and staff from 38 FPOs covering all districts, participated in three batches. The training was designed not only to impart technical knowledge but also to create a platform for peer learning, reflection, and problem-solving. The overarching goal was clear: move FPOs from scheme-driven entities to self-sustaining, market-ready businesses. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; resilience; farmers associations; farmers; rural areas; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:181985 |
| By: | Jaison R. Abel; Richard Deitz; Nick Montalbano |
| Abstract: | Employer-sponsored health insurance represents a substantial component of total compensation paid by firms to many workers in the United States. Such costs have climbed by close to 20 percent over the past five years. Indeed, the average annual premium for employer-sponsored family health insurance coverage was about $27, 000 in 2025—roughly equivalent to the wage of a full-time worker paid $15 per hour. Our February regional business surveys asked firms whether their wage setting decisions were influenced by the rising cost of employee health insurance. As we showed in our companion post, respondents reported an average increase in such costs of more than 13 percent this year. Businesses providing insurance to their workers indicated that absent these cost increases, they would have raised wages by roughly an additional percentage point, on average, suggesting that rising health insurance costs resulted in a drag on wage growth for workers at these firms. |
| Keywords: | costs; health insurance; wages |
| JEL: | J30 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:102872 |
| By: | Verheliuk, Yuliia |
| Abstract: | State-guaranteed debt arises from borrowings by economic entities for the implementation of infrastructure projects under state guarantees, which offers advantages provided there is effective control and minimal corruption risks. However, the imperfection of Ukraine’s practice in managing guaranteed debt leads to an increase in residents’ indebtedness, which transforms into guaranteed debt, while a significant portion of projects remains unimplemented, highlighting the need for improving the monitoring system. To assess the role of state-guaranteed debt within Ukraine’s system of obligations, with an emphasis on the challenges of managing and providing state guarantees. The research is based on a normative analysis of the legislative framework, statistical methods for assessing trends in guaranteed debt, and theoretical methods for generalizing the fundamental principles of managing guaranteed debt and the process of providing state guarantees. State-guaranteed debt constitutes a contingent liability that arises due to the inability of residents to fulfill debt obligations obtained under state guarantees. The absence of a clear methodology for assessing the creditworthiness of economic entities, a specialized management body, and transparent project selection procedures increases corruption risks and threatens debt security. International experience confirms that ineffective management of guaranteed debt leads to a crowding-out effect on investments, hindering economic development. Inadequate control over the use of loans exacerbates the financial burden on the state budget. This necessitates a revision of approaches to providing guarantees to ensure their effectiveness. The shortcomings in the management of guaranteed debt in Ukraine, particularly the lack of transparency and creditworthiness assessment, create fiscal risks. There is a need to improve legislation, project selection procedures, and establish a specialized body to enhance efficiency and strengthen debt security. Further research should focus on developing clear criteria for assessing borrowers’ solvency and creating a specialized body for managing guaranteed debt to reduce corruption risks and increase the effectiveness of state guarantees. |
| Keywords: | state-guaranteed debt, state guarantees, debt security, debt management, investment projects, economic development |
| JEL: | E62 F34 G38 H63 |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127545 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a statistical analysis of the global database of Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide (VMS) mineral deposits. The paper shows the joint and partial probability distributions for copper equivalent grade and total tonnage based on current metals prices for copper, zinc, lead, and gold. The article develops a new method using the joint distribution to identify the set of quantile values for grade and tonnage that have approximately 50% probability; this set of quantile values represents the median grade-tonnage curve for VMS deposits around the world. The article also shows how to analyze individual projects in comparison with the global database. For example, the size of the Shamlugskoe mine in Armenia is ranked according to the global database. For another example, a model of the exploration project called Mount Sicker is presented and compared to nearby projects that are in the global database. |
| Keywords: | Natural Resources, Mining, Copper, Zinc, Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide, Metals Grade, Deposit Tonnage, Grade-Tonnage Curve, Probability Distribution, Median Path, Statistical Analysis, Simulation, Quantile |
| JEL: | A1 A19 B5 B59 C0 C02 C1 C14 C15 C18 C4 C40 C6 C63 C69 C8 C81 D2 D8 D81 G1 G17 G3 G31 H2 H25 K2 K23 L2 L5 L7 L72 Q3 Q32 Q33 Q5 Y1 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127617 |
| By: | Dietz, Simon; Hastreiter, Nikolaus; Jahn, Valentin; Modirzadeh, Seyed Alireza |
| Abstract: | The TPI Centre’s Carbon Performance assessments to date have been predominantly based on the Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA).2 The SDA translates greenhouse gas emission reduction targets made at the international level (e.g. under the 2015 UN Paris Agreement) into benchmarks against which the performance of individual companies can be compared. The SDA recognises that different sectors of the economy (e.g. oil and gas production, electricity generation and automobile manufacturing) face different challenges arising from the low-carbon transition, including where emissions are concentrated in the value chain and how costly they are to reduce. Other approaches to translating international emissions targets into company benchmarks have applied the same decarbonisation pathway to all sectors, regardless of these differences [1]. Such approaches may result in suboptimal insights, as not all sectors have the same emissions profiles or face the same challenges: some sectors may be capable of faster decarbonisation, while others require more time and resources. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137410 |