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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Guillaume Plantin; Olivier Wang |
| Abstract: | We develop a New Keynesian model with financial frictions to study how corporate capital structure shapes static and dynamic monetary policy tradeoffs through the supply side. Ex post, when corporate leverage is high, monetary tightening contracts both demand and supply. As a result, the Phillips curve is highly non-linear and state-dependent, and the “natural rate” Rⁿ ensuring price stability increases with corporate leverage. Yet the tradeoff between inflation targeting and tightening supply constraints implies that the optimal ex-post policy is to set a rate Rᵒᵖᵗ |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E43 E44 E52 E58 E61 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34798 |
| By: | Catharine Titi (CERSA - Centre d'Études et de Recherches de Sciences Administratives et Politiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Institut Cujas - Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas) |
| Abstract: | The criticisms that have been voiced against investment arbitration have led to a growing interest in alternative means of dispute settlement, especially mediation. In 2022, as part of an overhaul of its Rules and Regulations, the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) adopted a set of mediation rules, which are the first institutional mediation rules developed specifically for investment disputes. These rules are the focus of this chapter. The chapter reviews the context of the adoption of the ICSID Mediation Rules, before considering the reasons that may have encouraged ICSID to establish them, given that, even before 2022, the Centre provided a framework for the conciliation of investment disputes. The chapter further examines the mediation procedure under the ICSID Mediation Rules, from the initiation of proceedings to their conduct and termination, and considers remaining challenges, which it argues will need to be addressed, if mediation is to become a more mainstream means of settling investment disputes. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05478156 |
| By: | Miklos Koren; Zsofia Barany; Ulrich Wohak |
| Abstract: | Generative AI is a directional technology: it excels at some task combinations and performs poorly at others. Knowledge work is also directional and endogenous: workers can satisfy their job requirements with different combinations of tasks. Studying AI adoption by knowledge workers hence requires comparing two vectors.We develop a high-dimensional model of task choice and technology adoption, with otherwise standard neoclassical assumptions. AI is adopted when its direction is aligned with what the worker values at the margin -- the worker's shadow prices, rather than with what the worker actually does -- their activity vector. This yields a cone of adoption that widens as AI capability grows; near the entry threshold, small improvements in capability translate into large expansions in the set of adopted directions. Adoption also has a structured intensive margin: a tool can be worth using but not worth using all the time, generating a region of stable hybrid production between an entry threshold and an all-in threshold. We also show how to derive shadow prices as explicit functions of observable skill and requirement vectors. The framework explains rapid adoption in aligned occupations, heterogeneous adoption elsewhere, and weak correlation with one-dimensional skill measures: the key heterogeneity is directional alignment, not skill level. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.12958 |
| By: | Niels Joachim Gormsen; Eben Lazarus |
| Abstract: | A large body of work has sought to measure the effect of interest rates on equity valuations. The challenge in doing so is that both are endogenous, and their comovement depends on the forces driving interest-rate changes. To address this problem, we develop and estimate a decomposition that splits movements in real rates into three structural drivers: changes in expected growth, risk, or “pure discounting.” We show that only pure discount-rate shocks transmit one-for-one to equity valuations, with little or negative transmission of growth and risk shocks. Implementing our decomposition with a global panel of growth expectations and asset prices, we find a weak unconditional relation between valuations and real rates but a strong relation with the pure discounting component, which explains 80% of cross-country valuation changes since 1990. In the U.S., we find that 35% of the interest-rate decline is attributable to pure discounting, implying that only a fraction of the change in rates has passed through directly to equities. We use the decomposition to revisit evidence on the role of interest rates in explaining price variation, and to study higher-frequency returns, cross-sectional rate exposures, duration-matched equity premia, and reactions to monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E44 F30 G1 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34814 |
| By: | Luiz Andrés Ri Paixão; Victor Martins Quirino |
| Abstract: | Estimar índice de preços para imóveis é um desafio, uma vez que imóveis são bens heterogêneos e as bases de dados possuem algum tipo de limitação. A literatura tem apontado que o modelo econométrico de preços hedônicos é a ferramenta metodológica mais adequada para lidar com heterogeneidade dos bens imóveis. Por outro lado, para gerar um índice oficial de imóveis é necessária uma base de dados que cubra todo o mercado. No caso do mercado formal de imóveis no Brasil, as bases de dados fiscais provenientes do Imposto de Transações de Bens Imóveis Intervivos (ITBI) tem se mostrado a mais adequada, uma vez que ela abrange o universo das transações imobiliária no mercado formal. Nesse trabalho, buscamos estimar índice de preços de imóveis residenciais para o Rio de Janeiro usando a metodologia hedônica para a base de dados do ITBI municipal. Para isso dividimos o município em nove regiões obtendo além de um índice municipal índices desagregados para as regiões. Como resultados houve uma grande elevação nos preços dos imóveis entre 2011 e 2016. Entre 2016-2018 houve uma queda na valorização dos imóveis e, uma posterior, acomodação dos preços entre 2018 e 2023. Os resultados mostram que a conjunção de metodologia hedônica com uma base de dados fiscal é uma alternativa interessante para construção de índices de preços oficiais para o mercado imobiliário. Por fim, o trabalho mostra a possibilidade que esses futuros índices oficiais sejam calculados para subregiões em grandes cidades. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic price model; índice de preços; mercado imobiliário; modelo de preços hedônicos; price indexa; real estate; Rio De Janeiro |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2025-106 |
| By: | Ancheta, Jenica A.; Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum P. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of urban revitalization strategies in Metro Manila, focusing on their implications for housing adequacy. Using geospatial and statistical analyses, the research integrates GIS-based mapping and demographic data to trace patterns of housing growth, land value changes, and spatial inequities associated with upzoning and urban renewal in Metro Manila. Findings reveal that revitalization projects have significantly transformed Metro Manila’s urban landscape, driving high-density mixed-use developments and increasing land values. However, these gains are spatially uneven, with nearby areas constrained by inadequate infrastructure and environmental risks experiencing minimal growth. While revitalization improved housing quality and expanded the residential stock, the supply of affordable housing remains concentrated in peripheral regions, reinforcing spatial inequalities and gentrification pressures. The study underscores the need for inclusive urban planning through policies such as inclusionary mixed-income zoning, transit-oriented development, and community land trust strategies that promote equitable urban growth. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | cities, urban revitalization, zoning, housing, Geospatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-40 |
| By: | Laura Henckel (Agroécologie [Dijon] - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe); Guillaume Fried (LSV Montpellier - Unité entomologie et plantes invasives - LSV - Laboratoire de la santé des végétaux - ANSES - Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail); Jean-Philippe Guillemin (Agroécologie [Dijon] - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe); Isis Poinas (LSV Montpellier - Unité entomologie et plantes invasives - LSV - Laboratoire de la santé des végétaux - ANSES - Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail, UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Christine Meynard (UMR CBGP - Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Benoit Ricci (Agroécologie [Dijon] - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe, UMR ABSys - Agrosystèmes Biodiversifiés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Highlights: • We used a national dataset of 500 sites monitored yearly from 2013 to 2018. • We analysed the effects of herbicides on plant margin communities. • Herbicides had a negative effect on richness and nature-value species. • Situations of risk for pesticides drift had a negative effect on margin flora. Abstract: Pesticides are often identified as one of the major causes of biodiversity decline in farmlands. However, our knowledge about this relationship has mostly being inferred from small to landscape-scale studies, or from indirect indicators of agricultural practices at large scales. Here, we used a national network of more than 500 sites monitored yearly from 2013 to 2018 in France to assess the non-target effects of herbicides on field margin plant communities. We used hierarchical generalized linear models to investigate the effects of practices on plant species richness, plant species evenness, proportion of nature-value plants, and proportion of grasses in field margins, while controlling for a large number of possible confounding effects. The intensity of herbicide use had a negative effect on plant species richness, and on the proportion of nature-value plants. In the margin of cereal fields, there was a negative effect of dicotyledon herbicides on richness and a negative effect of grass herbicides on species evenness. We also identified, in some specific crops, a negative effect of non-herbicide treatments on margin flora richness and on the proportion of nature-value plants. The presence of surrounding grasslands had a consistent favourable effect on richness and on the proportion of nature-value plants in field margins. Finally, situations of risk for pesticides drift had a negative effect on margin flora. This study confirms that reducing herbicide use represents a robust lever to maintain the floristic diversity of field margins, which could be combined with strategies reducing the risk of pesticide drift. |
| Keywords: | Plant communitie, Pesticide, Herbicide, Field margin, Biodiversity, Agroecology |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05446093 |
| By: | Mellies, Alexandra; Abendroth, Anja; Zimmermann, Florian; Ruf, Kevin; Lott, Yvonne |
| Abstract: | Dieser Policy Brief will zeigen, wie sich die Beschäftigten entschieden haben, die im Jahr 2022 von den tariflichen Wahloptionen Gebrauch machen konnten. Da gewerkschaftliche Regelungen wie die Wahl zwischen Zeit und Geld auf Betriebsebene ausgehandelt werden, betrachten wir zudem den Einfluss verschiedener betrieblicher Faktoren auf die Wahl. Basierend auf bisherigen Forschungsergebnissen zum Einfluss des betrieblichen Kontextes auf die Nutzung flexibler Arbeitsmodelle und Arbeitszeitverkürzungen gehen wir davon aus, dass sich auch im Kontext der Wahl von Zeit statt Geld bestimmte Nutzungsmuster zeigen. Es gilt herauszufinden, ob und inwiefern betriebliche Faktoren diese Muster abschwächen oder verstärken. Dabei beantworten wir die folgenden Fragen: - Wer hat Zeit statt Geld gewählt? - Wie unterscheiden sich Frauen und Männer mit und ohne Kinder in ihrer Wahl? - Inwiefern unterscheidet sich die Wahl von Zeit in Abhängigkeit von betrieblichen Rahmenbedingungen? Konkret: Welche Rolle spielen - a) eine stark verbreitete Vollzeiterwerbstätigkeit im Betrieb, - b) ein belastendendes betriebliches Arbeitsklima und - c) vorhandene Maßnahmen für eine bessere Vereinbarkeit von Beruf und Privatem und mehr Arbeitszeitsouveränität im Betrieb? Die Antworten auf diese Fragen sind ein wichtiger Schritt für die Evaluation der tariflichen Wahloptionen und ermöglichen die Erforschung arbeitnehmerund arbeitgeberseitiger Hindernisse der Wahl von Zeit statt Geld. |
| Keywords: | Tarifvertrag, Lohnpolitik, Arbeitszeitgestaltung, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsipbs:336792 |
| By: | Brenzel-Weiss, Janosch; Koeniger, Winfried; Valladares-Esteban, Arnau |
| Abstract: | We calibrate a lifecycle portfolio-choice model of homeowners facing uninsurable income risk to show that tax deductions for mortgage interest payments and voluntary pension contributions have sizable effects on household portfolios and macroprudential risks. The deductions reduce the after-tax cost of debt and increase the after-tax return of pension savings so that the mortgage incidence increases and portfolios shift from home equity and liquid assets towards pension savings. Because the consumption responses to a house-price decline are heterogeneous, the distribution of household debt shapes the quantitative effect of the tax deductions on the homeowners' resilience after a house price bust. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage amortization, Tax incentives, Household consumption, Portfolio choice, Housing busts, Economic stability, Macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | D14 D15 D31 E21 G11 G21 H24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:336755 |
| By: | Kesternich, Martin; Werthschulte, Madeline |
| Abstract: | Die Energiekrise 2022/2023 in Europa hat gezeigt, wie zentral ein bewusster Gasverbrauch für die Versorgungssicherheit, die Kostenstabilität und den Klimaschutz ist. Doch wie kann man Haushalte in Krisenzeiten mit Hochpreisphasen dazu bringen, ihren Verbrauch anzupassen, auch wenn sich Preissignale aufgrund bestehender Verträge erst zeitverzögert darstellen? Mithilfe eines Feldexperiments und Umfragedaten aus dem Gasbonusprogramm eines Energieversorgers in Deutschland zeigen wir, dass verhaltensökonomische Designelemente wie Erinnerungen an Einsparziele und -maßnahmen die individuellen Sparanreize selbst in Hochpreisphasen weiter stützen können. Gleichzeitig zeigen sich jedoch klare Einschränkungen in der Wirkungsweise von etablierten Nudges: Haushalte schätzen die Wirksamkeit ihrer konkreten Energiesparmaßnahmen oft falsch ein und Erinnerungen mit Einspartipps allein können diese nicht korrigieren. Auch die Kluft zwischen guten Vorsätzen und tatsächlichem Handeln lässt sich nur begrenzt schließen. Des Weiteren kann ein Vergleichsfeedback, welches den eigenen Verbrauch im Vergleich zu anderen Haushalten darstellt, die Gaseinsparungen besonders engagierter Haushalte im Nachgang reduzieren und damit einen "Bumerang-Effekt" auslösen. Verhaltensökonomische Designelemente sollten daher nicht als "One size fits all"-Baustein verstanden werden. |
| Keywords: | Energiekrise, Erdgas, Energieeinsparung, Verhaltensökonomik, Feldforschung, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:336901 |
| By: | Denham, Annabel; Shackleton, J. R. |
| Abstract: | Changes to our way of life during the Covid lockdown accelerated an existing drive for more flexible working opportunities. However, the costs of flexible working requirements have rarely been properly assessed and could extend to undermining growth, increasing unemployment and the rise in post-Covid withdrawal from the workforce. UK employers already offer a wide variety of non-traditional work options. Where this is the result of employers voluntarily offering such options and workers voluntarily accepting them, this is compatible with classical liberal approaches to the employment contract and economic efficiency. The rationale for the 'right to request' flexible working has expanded from concern for economically disadvantaged workers with health issues or caring responsibilities to a belief that all employees should be able to request a change to their working arrangements. The Employment Rights Act strengthens the 'right to request' flexible working arrangements and will make it very difficult for organisations to resist such requests. Flexible working arrangements advocated by pressure groups and trade unions include the right to work at home, to work compressed hours or a four-day week, a 'right to disconnect' and extended and more generously funded parental leave. All of these arrangements have bene ts for some employees, and a monetary value can be attached to them. However, as other employees cannot bene t from these opportunities because of the nature of their jobs, pay relativities may need to adjust, and this could present difficulties where pay structures are rigid as a result of union pressures. Despite claims that flexible working is virtually costless to employers, this is not generally true; otherwise, flexible options would be offered voluntarily. Where employers face significant extra costs, these will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices and to workers in terms of lower wages and/or fewer job opportunities. A concern is the way in which effective employment mandates arising from tribunal decisions or further regulatory interventions may particularly benefit already privileged public sector employees. The costs fall on the taxpayer, and such mandates may undermine attempts to improve poor productivity performance. They will also make it still more difficult for private employers to compete. We are not in a position to evaluate the benefits and costs of particular working arrangements. But neither are politicians and civil servants. Employers and employees, negotiating in the 'particular circumstances of time and place', are better suited to undertake these evaluations. Government should take its hand from the tiller and allow businesses and employees to come to arrangements that best suit their own needs and requirements. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ieadps:336788 |
| By: | Jacob Moscona; Nathan Nunn; James A. Robinson |
| Abstract: | In this chapter, we develop a framework for analyzing the determinants of economic development and their implications for policy. We distinguish between classical determinants—such as inputs into education and health, access to credit, and geography—and non-classical determinants—including cultural values, social norms, beliefs, identity, and social organization. We classify these determinants along two policy-relevant dimensions: whether they can be clearly ranked in terms of their contribution to development (vertical versus horizontal) and whether they can be directly altered through policy intervention (manipulable versus non-manipulable).We show that even for classical determinants, policy impacts are often hard to predict and are mediated by local social and cultural context. These issues are more pronounced for non-classical determinants, which are more complicated to change through policy intervention and more difficult to rank in welfare terms. In some cases, traits commonly viewed as obstacles to development may be well-adapted to local conditions or even supportive of economic performance, a possibility we refer to as “reverse vertical.” Building on Hirschman’s (1967) distinction between trait-making and trait-taking policymaking, we argue that interventions that attempt to directly transform non-classical determinants often rest on fragile assumptions about ranking and manipulability and risk generating unintended or adverse effects. By contrast, many of the most successful development episodes of the past several decades relied on policies that took existing social and cultural traits as given and designed institutions, technologies, and incentives that worked within those contexts rather than attempting to overturn them. |
| JEL: | A33 O10 O2 Z1 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34810 |
| By: | Thibault Mirabel (Capital Collectif); Aurélien Quignon (ICN Business School) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the relationship between employee ownership and technological innovation. The impact of worker cooperatives' democratic governance on innovation is debated-some highlight financial constraints and slow decision-making as disadvantages, while others emphasize participatory structures and knowledge-sharing as advantages for innovation. Using a balanced panel of French worker cooperatives from 2014 to 2018, we find nuanced relationship: the share of worker-owners among workers positively influences innovation, whereas the share of worker-owners among owners negatively impacts innovation, providing empirical evidence for both the advantage and disadvantage hypotheses. Regional spillover effects also play a significant role. These findings challenge the notion that worker cooperatives are inherently less innovative than conventional firms and highlight the importance of ownership distribution and external conditions in shaping innovation outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Employee ownership, Worker participation, Worker cooperative, Innovation, Entrepreneurship |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05430064 |
| By: | Lingatong, Edmar E.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Aranzanso, Daryl Jules F.; Berroya, Jenard D.; Daga, Erwin Doroteo Justien C.; Gonzales, Junette Fatima D.; Ignacio, Mary Anne C.; Macaraig, Denzel L.; Pablo, Centene V.; Pineda, Carlo C.; Sister, Johanna Marie Astrid A.; Villasor, Richelle M. |
| Abstract: | Does curriculum change affect teaching practices? This question is investigated in this stidy using a randomized experiment in the Philippines, where a subset of public schools piloted a new basic education curriculum. Through both self-reported surveys and classroom observations, modest changes in teaching practices attributable to the reform are documented, primarily through increased teacher collaboration rather than direct curricular effects. However, mediator analysis reveals that the curriculum's impact on student performance operates predominantly through direct pathways (0.34 SD increase) rather than improved teaching practices. Specific teacher practices, particularly collaboration, assessment and feedback practices, and emphasis on reading literacy, emerged as stronger indicators of classroom teaching proficiency than demographic or contextual factors. These findings suggest that curriculum reform may operate through dual pathways: directly improving student outcomes through better curriculum design while simultaneously building professional capacity through enhanced collaboration. This distinction has important implications for educational reform strategies and professional development policies. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | teacher practices, student achievement, experimental design, latent trait theory, mediator analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-45 |
| By: | Camelo Vega, Ana |
| Abstract: | The global energy transition, essential for achieving climate goals and sustainable development, faces significant challenges, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies. These challenges include high capital costs, policy inconsistencies, debt burdens, and limited mobilization of private capital due to high perceived risks. This paper explores the importance of regional perspectives in overcoming these barriers, emphasizing how regional public goods, cross-border investments, and tailored financial mechanisms can drive scalable solutions. It provides a comprehensive assessment of regional contexts- highlighting opportunities and constraints in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean-and identifies the potential of innovative financial catalysts, namely blended finance. The analysis underscores the critical role of regional collaboration and financial innovation in fulfilling global commitments, such as the latest USD 300 billion pledge, and presents actionable recommendations for policymakers, international financial institutions, and private sector stakeholders to accelerate the energy transition equitably and effectively. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Finance, Energy Transition, Cost of Capital, Emerging Markets, Regional Pathways |
| JEL: | Q01 Q40 F35 G23 O16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336686 |
| By: | Kittel, Rebecca; Silva, Bruno Castanho |
| Abstract: | Politicians can adjust the complexity of their communication to signal different things to different audiences: more complex language can indicate competence, while lower complexity may bring them closer to "common people". These strategic shifts in complexity, however, remain understudied. We ask what individual and contextual factors relate to politicians' use of more or less complex language in their communication, with a dataset matching 116, 000 parliamentary speeches from 15 countries with 800, 000 contemporaneous Facebook posts from the same MPs between 2018 and 2021, and apply measures of language complexity to each. Results show that women use more complex language in parliament, and that far-right politicians, while similar to others in parliamentary speech, simplify their language the most on social media, and benefit the most from higher engagement with their simpler posts. These results show new dimensions of how politicians strategically adapt their communication styles to the audience. |
| Keywords: | Language Complexity, Strategic Communication, Parliamentary Discourse, Social Media, Political Communication |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbccs:336795 |
| By: | Denning, Glenn |
| Abstract: | Achieving universal food security — healthy diets for all, from sustainable food systems — will require a comprehensive investment strategy that increases food supply, enhances distribution and access, reduces food losses and waste, and improves nutrition for all, while addressing and mitigating climate change. Despite increases in agricultural productivity and a sharp reduction in the proportion of undernourished people over the past 50 years, universal food security remains elusive. About 673 million people — 8.2 percent of the world population — are undernourished, and almost three billion people cannot afford a healthy diet. Our food systems are vulnerable to climate change while contributing one third of greenhouse gas emissions. Conflict and trade disruptions further compound the challenge and undermine past successes. Yet, we are incongruously underinvesting in agricultural improvement and food systems transformation, beginning with woefully inadequate support for international agricultural research: the foundation for more productive and resilient food systems. Food security has emerged as a geopolitical priority across the Indo-Pacific region. Leaders of China, India, ASEAN nations, the Pacific, and beyond have raised alarms and are looking for actionable policies and investments. In this address, I will outline a set of practical actions that Australia could take to advance food security in the Indo-Pacific region. Stepped-up action and investment by Australia in support of agricultural research and development would be widely welcomed in the region. As a nation, we have exceptional expertise and well-established partnership models in agriculture and food security that, if better supported and deployed, could serve our collective desire for regional peace and prosperity. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp25:391422 |
| By: | Hedieh Tajali (School of Economics, University of Edinburgh); Piruz Saboury (University of Houston) |
| Abstract: | The increasing use of dynamic fundraising schemes such as crowdfunding has given rise to a relatively small but growing body of literature focusing on understanding the effectiveness of such techniques. In this paper, we first present a simple model of dynamic fundraising as a sequential-move threshold public goods game. We demonstrate that donors have an incentive to free-ride on expected future contributions, which leads to the following testable hypotheses for our empirical analysis: Donations are, all else equal, decreasing in accumulated past donations and increasing in time from the beginning of fundraising. In the next step, we analyse a rich dataset from a prominent crowdfunding platform. We find evidence that supports our hypotheses and shows the presence of a small but statistically significant forward-looking crowd-out among donors. On average, a one-percentage-point increase in past cumulative donations leads to a reduction of 0.05 percentage points in the amount contributed, while a one-percentage-point increase in time passed results in an increase of 0.03 percentage points in the amount contributed. In short, we observe that an increased prospect of future provision crowds out earlier contributions. |
| Keywords: | public goods, philanthropy, fundraising, crowdfunding, free-riding, crowding-out. |
| JEL: | H00 H41 D64 I22 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edn:esedps:322 |
| By: | Cabalfin, Deanne Lorraine D.; Albert, Jose Ramon G.; Mahmoud, Mohammad A. |
| Abstract: | The Philippines aspires to become a predominantly middle-class society by 2040. Significant strides have been made in reducing extreme poverty. However, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of recent gains and the vulnerability of many households to economic shocks. This study examines the dynamics and characteristics of the middle-income class and analyzes household vulnerability to income poverty using the Family Income and Expenditure Survey and Labor Force Survey data from 2018, 2021, and 2023, employing the methodology developed by Chaudhuri and Datt (2001). Traditional poverty measures underestimate the at-risk population. Vulnerability affects 30.0 percent of Filipino households, 2.75 times higher than the household poverty incidence of 10.9 percent in 2023. Households face vulnerability for distinctly different reasons. Eighty-six percent of vulnerable families experience income volatility, while seventy-three percent of the highly vulnerable have persistently low incomes. Stark rural-urban disparities persist, with rural vulnerability incidence at 43.0 percent compared to 20.0 percent in urban areas. Regional variations in vulnerability range from 9.0 percent in the National Capital Region to 76.0 percent in rural Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. These findings have significant implications for the motivation and design of social protection systems in the country. Social protection must evolve from reactive poverty relief to a broader, proactive focus on resilience building. Differentiated interventions must be based on the needs of specific segments: insurance and income stabilization mechanisms for the vulnerable majority who experience income volatility, and poverty reduction programs targeted at the low-income vulnerable. Infrastructure development, education, sectoral transition from agriculture to the more productive sectors of services, industry, and manufacturing, as well as climate risk management emerge as critical protective factors. Achieving the 2040 vision requires bold policy reforms that expand social protection to universal coverage aligned with upper middle-income country standards, strengthen household resilience, and address the structural factors that perpetuate vulnerability across sectors. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | poverty reduction, poverty alleviation, social protection, middle-income class, middle class, inclusive growth, vulnerability to poverty, poverty, Philippines |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2026-01 |
| By: | Farras, Ashab; Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | Continuous auditing has emerged as a transformative practice within the accounting and auditing professions, driven by rapid technological advancements and the growing demand for real-time financial assurance. Traditional audit practices rely on manual work, increasing the risk of human error and repetitive tasks. But Continuous auditing is powered by transformative tools like robotic process automation which eliminates these barriers by automating routine processes, reducing errors, and freeing employees from repetitive work. This paper examines the evolution of continuous auditing, its integration with advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotic process automation, blockchain, and data analytics, and the broader implications for auditors, organizations, and academic institutions. Such advanced technology works together in continuous auditing to enhance accuracy, automate processes, and ensure data accuracy. Synergy in these advanced technologies enhanced audit efficiency. Through a comprehensive review of scholarly literature, the study underscores how continuous auditing facilitates real-time monitoring, improves audit quality, and reduces risks associated with traditional audit methods. Nevertheless, its adoption presents several challenges, including the management of information overload, the preservation of auditor independence, and the resolution of skill deficiencies among professionals. The 2024 BDO Audit Innovation Survey found that more than two-thirds (69%) of finance leaders said establishing data governance and internal data management is a barrier to a smooth audit experience. According to a 2019 ISACA survey, nearly two-thirds of organizations say the tech skills gap is impacting IT audits. The paper concludes by stressing the critical need to align auditing practices, professional training, and technological innovation to get the maximum benefits of continuous auditing in a digitally driven business environment. |
| Keywords: | AI, RPA, Accuracy, Sample, Audit Frequency, Automation and Training |
| JEL: | G3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127319 |
| By: | Dan Ben-Moshe; David Genesove |
| Abstract: | This paper derives closed-form unbiased estimators of central moments in multilevel random-effects models with unbalanced group sizes. In a two-level model, we provide unbiased estimators for the second, third, and fourth central moments under both group-level and observation-level averaging. In a three-level model, we provide unbiased estimators for the second and third central moments. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.03469 |
| By: | Wazir, Muhammad; Alazar, Yilma Melkamu |
| Abstract: | Pakistan’s 2018-2030 Family Planning and Population Policy set forth ambitious targets, aiming for a 2 percent annual increase in overall contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) at both national and subnational levels. This study evaluates the feasibility of these targets through a comprehensive Bayesian analysis, leveraging publicly available datasets. By reconstructing historical CPR trends and employing advanced statistical approaches—including generalized additive models (GAM) and logistic growth models—our analysis accounts for Pakistan’s significant demographic diversity and varying regional contexts. The findings reveal substantial disparities in contraceptive use across provinces and regions, with some areas demonstrating steady progress while others lag behind due to persistent socio-cultural, economic, and infrastructural barriers. Our projections indicate that, although select provinces may approach the policy’s CPR goals by 2025, most subnational units are unlikely to meet the 2 percent annual increase without substantial improvements in health service delivery, supply chain management, and community engagement. The study underscores the importance of tailored, region-specific interventions and sustained political commitment to advance family planning outcomes. Limitations include reliance on modelling approaches, availability of uniform data and potential underreporting in certain areas. Overall, while the national targets are laudable, achieving uniform progress requires nuanced, evidence-based strategies responsive to local needs. The results provide critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders to recalibrate expectations and prioritize investments that can accelerate contraceptive uptake and contribute to broader reproductive health objectives in Pakistan. |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:t54j7_v1 |
| By: | Rejoice, Frimpong |
| Abstract: | Purpose and scope: This analysis assesses the cumulative impact of the Autumn Budget Statement 2025 on UK residents over the period 2026-2030. The Budget has been passed by Parliament and will be implemented beginning in April 2026. This report models policy impact on the UK population using UKMOD (a UK microsimulation model), which captures effects on all households and individuals, including both those with market income (employment earnings, self-employment income, private pensions, investment income) and those without market income (such as households reliant solely on state benefits and pensions). The analysis covers the UK population weighted to represent the national demographic and economic composition. What this analysis compares: The analysis compares baseline scenarios for each year from 2026 to 2030 under pre-Budget legislation with reform scenarios in which the Autumn Budget Statement 2025 policies are implemented. Each year represents a separate comparison between baseline and reform scenarios, with identical market incomes and economic conditions, to isolate pure policy effects. Market income is identical between scenarios in each year because both use the same Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) November 2025 uprating forecasts applied to 2023 input data. This ensures that all measured differences reflect policy changes only, and not differences in economic assumptions or forecast. The poverty line and decile groups are held fixed at baseline levels for each year. This ensures that measured poverty reduction reflects individuals crossing a consistent income threshold because of policy changes, rather than shifts in the overall income distribution. All monetary values are expressed in nominal terms for each respective year. This is a comprehensive policy package combining immediate benefit increases (two-child limit removal effective from April 2026) with phased tax changes (dividend tax increases from April 2026; property and savings tax changes from April 2027; and threshold freezes through to April 2031). Market income composition: Market income represents pre-government income (employment earnings, self-employment income, private pensions, and investment income) before any tax or benefit policies are applied. The policy changes affect how the government interacts with this market income through taxes and benefits. By doing so, they change work incentives, which in turn might lead to changes in labour supply behaviour. These behavioural changes are not considered here. Market income grows from £1, 474 billion in 2026 to £1, 626 billion in 2030 due to OBR uprating forecasts but remains identical between baseline and reform scenarios within each year. UKMOD Implementation: Benefit Reforms: • Remove of the Universal Credit two-child limit (from April 2026) Tax Reforms: • Maintain income tax and National Insurance (NI) thresholds at current levels until April 2031 (fiscal drag) • Maintain employer NI secondary threshold at current level until April 2031 • Increase dividend tax rates by 2 percentage points (from April 2026) • Introduce separate property income tax rates: 22%, 42%, 47% (from April 2027) • Increase savings tax rates by 2 percentage points (from April 2027) Fuel Duty: • Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend 5p cut to August 2026, followed by gradual increases Headline Findings for the United Kingdom: Net Poverty Impact: Overall poverty decreases by 21, 738 people in 2026 (after housing costs), with the poverty rate declining from 18.40% to 18.37%. Approximately 13, 193 children are lifted out of poverty, as child poverty falls from 23.8% to 23.7% (-0.09 percentage points). Working-age adult poverty decreases by 13, 784 people, with the poverty rate declining from 19.4% to 19.3% (-0.1 percentage points). However, approximately 5, 239 elderly residents fall into poverty as pensioner poverty increases by 0.04 percentage points from 19.3%. The removal of the two-child limit benefits families with three or more children, with 21, 770 people in households with children lifted from poverty. This gain is partially offset by the increase in poverty among the elderly driven by dividend tax increases and Pension Credit dynamics. Fiscal Position: The policy package generates a net fiscal improvement of £1.0 billion in 2026, growing to £1.4 billion by 2030. Tax revenue increases by approximately £1.4 billion in 2026 (+0.3%) primarily from personal income tax changes (+£1.2 billion, +0.4%) driven by income tax threshold freezes creating fiscal drag effects. Benefit expenditure increases by approximately £364 million in 2026 (+0.1%) from Universal Credit two-child limit removal (+£714 million), partially offset by Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions (-£269 million) and Pension Credit reductions (-£127 million). Personal income tax increases comprise non-devolved taxes (+£1.2 billion), Scottish devolved taxes (+£43 million), and Welsh devolved taxes (+£132 million) in 2026. Council Tax shows no change, while Employee and Employer National Insurance contributions show minimal increases (+£7 million and +£27 million respectively). Universal Credit spending increases by £714 million following the removal of the two-child limit, with additional increases in Council Tax Benefit/Reduction (+£59 million) and non-means-tested benefits (+£179 million). Winter Fuel Allowance savings (-£269 million, -64.7%) and Pension Credit reductions (-£127 million, -2.1%) partially offset Universal Credit costs. Distribution of Impacts: Only 1.78% of UK households are estimated to gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income in 2026, while 6.49% experience losses exceeding 1%, indicating more households lose than gain overall. The majority of households (91.73%) see minimal income change (<1% either way). Families with children show net positive outcomes from two-child limit removal (1.42% gaining versus 0.20% losing). Among lone parents 2.76% gain and 0.46% lose, while for families with three or more children 2.17% gain and 0.25% lose, with all gainers experiencing income increases exceeding 5%. By contrast, elderly households experience adverse impacts (27.3% losing versus 1.58% gaining), primarily from dividend tax increases and Pension Credit dynamics affecting elderly investors. No-earner households show 22.2% losing and 4.07% gaining reflecting similar dynamics. Changes in the Income Distribution: Mean disposable income remain largely stable across deciles despite the policy changes. After housing costs, income in the lowest decile (1) - increases marginally from £158.75 per week to £159.19 per week (+£0.44 per week, or +£23 annually). While income in the highest decile (10) is £1, 973 per week in both scenarios (-£0.26 per week, or -£14 annually). Income shares barely shift, with all changes under 0.1 percentage points across deciles and household types. Income inequality falls slightly, with the Gini coefficient declining from 0.339 by -0.000085 after housing costs. While targeted benefit increases for families with three or more children produce gains for specific households, the overall income structure remains largely unchanged. However, the concentration of losses among elderly households creates adverse distributional effects for this vulnerable group, with 27.3% of elderly households experiencing income losses and pensioner poverty increasing by 5, 239 people in 2026. |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:cempwp:cempa3-26 |
| By: | Ayoki, Milton |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the opportunities and challenges facing Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) engaged in informal cross-border trade (ICBT) at three strategic border locations: Cyanika (Rwanda-Uganda), Mpondwe (DRC-Uganda), and Vvura (DRC-Uganda). Using primary data from stakeholder consultations and secondary data from official trade statistics, we analyze trade flows, operating models, and the unique constraints confronting women traders, who constitute over 70% of the informal trading population. The study reveals that Mpondwe and Vvura collectively account for 33.2% of Uganda's informal export revenue ($188.6 million in 2023), with fish, agricultural products, and manufactured goods dominating trade flows. While the Simplified Trade Regime (STR) and One-Stop Border Posts (OSBPs) have improved formalization rates, significant challenges persist including customs compliance burdens, inadequate infrastructure, regulatory inconsistencies, and gender-based vulnerabilities. Our empirical analysis employs a structural gravity model to estimate trade facilitation effects, demonstrating that behind-the-border costs reduce trade volumes by 23-35%. We find that women traders face disproportionate barriers including sexual harassment, limited access to market information, and inadequate childcare facilities. The paper concludes with targeted policy recommendations for gender-responsive trade facilitation, including mobile testing laboratories, digital trade platforms, and strengthened cross-border trader associations. |
| Keywords: | Informal Cross-Border Trade, MSMEs, Gender, Trade Facilitation, East African Community, Gravity Model |
| JEL: | F14 F15 J16 L26 O17 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127325 |
| By: | Mukherji, Aditi |
| Abstract: | Agri-food systems across Asia and Africa, where over 2.5 billion people depend on agriculture for livelihoods and food security, are at risk due to current and projected climate change. For example, in Africa, maize and wheat yields have already declined by 5.8% and 2.3%, respectively, due to increased drought frequency and warming trends (IPCC, 2022a). Across both continents and more so in Africa than Asia, rain-fed agriculture accounts for over 90% of staple crop production, making it acutely vulnerable to erratic rainfall and temperature extremes (IPCC, 2022a; IPCC, 2022b). In Asia, monsoon variability, glacier retreat affecting all perennial rivers, sealevel rise, and extreme heat threaten food production in densely populated river basins and deltas, such as the Ganges, Mekong, and Indus (IPCC, 2022b). Fisheries and aquaculture, which provide more than 20% of animal protein in many Asian countries, are also increasingly disrupted by warming and ocean acidification (IPCC, 2022c).Without adequate adaptation, cereal yields could decline by 10–30% by 2050 across both regions, and suitable areas for rain-fed crops, such as maize, could shrink by up to 40% in parts of SubSaharan Africa under 1.5°C warming (IPCC, 2022a). While relatively under-researched, yields of non-cereal crops, as well as the nutritional content of all major food groups also decline at higher levels of global warming. These disruptions deepen food insecurity, affecting a disproportionate share of the 783 million people globally who are already undernourished, and exacerbating inequality for smallholders, women, and youth. A range of solutions exists, encompassing adaptation and mitigation and their various co-benefits with nutrition and related SDGs and CGIAR and partners are working to scale these solutions. Climate-smart agriculture, including drought- and heat-tolerant crops, efficient irrigation, and agroecological practices, offers immediate adaptation benefits while leveraging digital tools such as AI-powered climate services, decision-support platforms, and mobile-based advisory systems, which helps small holder producers be better prepared for climate-induced hazards like floods and droughts improved forages, green ammonia, and site-specific nutrient management are interventions that simultaneously boost productivity and reduce emissions. Scaling these solutions requires targeted adaptation finance, inclusive governance, and enabling policy frameworks and calls for a just transition in agri-food systems in Asia and Africa. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp25:391428 |
| By: | M.D.M. Ariyawansha (University of Moratuwa); V Wickramasinghe (University of Moratuwa) |
| Abstract: | Organizational politics is a pervasive element in modern project environments, influencing both managerial decision quality and project success. Guided by Behavioral Decision Theory (BDT), this study investigates the direct relationship between decision-making and project performance, and the moderating role of organizational politics in this relationship. A quantitative research design was employed, drawing on survey data collected from 322 project professionals across diverse industries in Sri Lanka. The moderation analysis was performed with SPSS and PROCESS Macro. The results reveal a strong positive relationship between effective decision-making and project performance. Conversely, organizational politics negatively affects both decision-making and performance and weakens the relationship. These findings empirically validate the moderating role of organizational politics within the BDT framework. Practically, it underlines the need for open governance arrangements, political risk management, and stakeholder arrangement strategies to safeguard project success. |
| Keywords: | Workplace dynamics, Workplace politics, Behavioral Decision Theory, Decision-making, Organizational politics, Governance in projects, Project management, Project success, Managerial decision-making, Political behavior, Power and influence, Project-based environments, Project performance |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05482872 |
| By: | Raya Das (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Sanchit Gupta (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | Placing India's experience in the global context, the report shows that China remains the dominant producer of fisheries, accounting for 39.7 per cent of global production in the triennium ending (TE) 2023, followed by Indonesia (10.1 per cent) and India (7.1 per cent). India's fisheries production reached 19.5 MMT in FY 2025 comparable to China’s production levels in the early 1990s, highlighting both progress and untapped potential (FAO, 2025, latest data available). Over the past two decades, inland fisheries production in India has increased more than four-fold, from 3.21 MMT in 2002–03 to 14.7 MMT in 2024–25. India ranks third in total fisheries production but second in inland aquaculture, after China. Despite ranking second globally in inland aquaculture, India accounts for only about 15 per cent of global production, compared to China's dominant 56 per cent share in value, indicating a significant gap in productivity and scale. Frozen shrimp has emerged as the single most important driver of India’s fisheries exports, while aquaculture growth remains spatially concentrated—particularly in Andhra Pradesh, which contributes 34 per cent of inland fisheries production and 44 per cent of national fisheries GVA in 2023–24. The uneven regional spread of aquaculture raises the policy challenge of replicating this cluster model across other states. |
| Keywords: | Fishries Production-India, Crop Agriculatur, Aquaculature, Farmers |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-01 |
| By: | Hoffmann, Timo |
| Abstract: | Zusammenfassend lässt sich festhalten, dass Kohortenmodelle insbesondere in der langen Frist die Prognosegüte für die Partizipationsquote in Deutschland verbessert hätten. Dies dürfte umso stärker für den aktuellen Rand gelten, da der Effekt der demografischen Entwicklung in Deutschland im Zeitverlauf zu- und nicht abnimmt. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:336900 |
| By: | Miller, Anne |
| Abstract: | The separability rule is unable to distinguish between two commodities fulfilling the same need and those fulfilling different needs, for utilities displaying only diminishing marginal utility. An S-shaped utility, bounded below and above, represents the stages of an individual’s fulfilment of a need, including deprivation (increasing marginal utility), subsistence, sufficiency (diminishing marginal utility) and satiation. A utility function is created by adding two (S-shaped) normal cumulative distribution functions for consumption and leisure, each with a subsistence and an intensity-of-need parameter and satiation at infinity. Its indifference curve map features a straight-line indifference curve separating concave- from convex-to-the-origin indifference curves. The utility function is then maximised subject to a budget constraint to produce consumption demand and labour supply equations. These two functional forms are dependent on only two independent variables – the real wage rate and endowments of unearned consumption. Thus, both consumption demand and labour supply are 3-dimensional figures, which ideally would be presented as 3-D models. The typical demand/supply and Engels diagrams are only two dimensional, representing a dependent variable as a function of only one of its two independent variables, from which the 3-D figure is very difficult to envisage. The aim of this paper is to present the third 2-D diagram for each dependent variable, presented as contours on a map of the real wage rate vs endowments. They highlight the instability of labour and consumption around the intersection of the ‘survival endowment’ and ‘equilibrium wage/price’ created by the straight-line indifference curve. |
| Keywords: | S-shaped cardinal utility includes increasing marginal utility expressing deprivation; additive utilities represent separate needs; dysfunctional poverty causes involuntary unemployment and disequilibrium; labour and consumption contours; instability at the conjunction of ‘survival endowment’ and ‘equilibrium wage’. |
| JEL: | D11 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127641 |
| By: | Robert J R ELLIOTT; Wenjing KUAI; Toshihiro OKUBO; Ceren OZGEN |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how international engagements shape heterogeneity in the greenness of Japanese manufacturing firms. Using a new firm-level dataset, we construct intensity-based greenness indicators distinguishing between the greenness of market facing products and the greenness of more governance-driven production processes. Our empirical results are three-fold. First, green activity is widespread across Japanese manufacturing sectors but is predominantly process-oriented, with the greenest firms concentrated in a small subset of industrial activities. Second, greenness is not linked to internationalization in general, but to firms being embedded in global value chains (GVCs), particularly in Western oriented networks, and this association is stronger for green processes. Third, we identify a vulnerability whereby product greening does not attenuate tariff induced sales losses among internationally engaged firms, and green processes do appear to amplify tariff exposure, especially for GVC participants. Overall, the results highlight that going green is multidimensional and that environmental process compliance interacts with GVC integration in shaping firms’ resilience to trade policy shocks under a trend towards further geoeconomic fragmentation. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26018 |