nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2026–01–26
35 papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo


  1. Fiscal Policy in a Permanent Liquidity Trap: Evidence from Japan By Alice Albonico; Guido Ascari; Alessandro Gobbi
  2. Die Stabilisierung des Rentenniveaus bringt einen generationenübergreifenden Nutzen mit sich - Schriftliche Stellungnahme zum Gesetzentwurf der Bundesregierung zur Stabilisierung des Rentenniveaus und zur vollständigen Gleichstellung der Kindererziehungszeiten By Ulrike Stein
  3. Influence of daily weather variation on tree growth: An application for portfolio selection to climate-related growth uncertainty in long-lived natural assets By Manner, Richard H.; Baker, Justin S.
  4. Criteria for Choosing Crop Protection Strategies: Comparative Perspectives from Farmers, Advisors, and Researchers By Marianne Lefebvre; Laure Latruffe; Maxime Colin; Adeline Alonso Ugaglia; Julie Borg; Yann Desjeux; Gaëlle Leduc; Aurélien Milliat; Laure Perchepied; Yann Raineau
  5. The Bright Side of Imprecision: Creativity Meets Rational Inattention By Giuseppe Attanasi; Giuseppe Ciccarone; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo
  6. Strategic Expression, Popularity Traps, and Welfare in Social Media By Zafer Kanik; Zaruhi Hakobyan
  7. How does land fragmentation affect farmers’ decision-making for agricultural socialization services? By Shen, Shaoxin; Cui, Mengyi; Zheng, Fengtian
  8. Does transparency look at consumers? A longitudinal and cross-cultural study of reactions to the handling of blockchain-augmented food products By Florent Saucède; Lucie Sirieix; Archana Kumar
  9. Globalization and the Border Effect: A Geo-Economic Gravity Model of Trade Between the Maghreb and the European Union By Souibgui, Moez; Ben Zina, Naceur
  10. When do credits work for resilience? A predictive analysis for rural households in Colombia By Zapata-Valencia, Raquel; Couleau, Anabelle; Muñoz-Mora, Juan Carlos
  11. Is a Gender-Neutral Income Tax Feasible -- or Desirable? By James Alm; Yvette Lind
  12. Benchmarking time-varying market efficiency By Mu, Yali; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Asqui, Gabriel Alejandro Rosero; Brümmer, Bernhard
  13. Overcoming Low Self-Efficacy in Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Farmers’ Preference for Eco-Friendly Mulching in Northwest China By Xiong, Hang; Zhang, Shiyun; Zhan, Jintao; Xu, Zhigang
  14. Energieeffizienz von Mobilfunknetzen: Die Bedeutung von Nutzungsverhalten und transferierten Datenvolumina By Zuloaga, Gonzalo; Plückebaum, Thomas; Kulenkampff, Gabriele; Ockenfels, Martin
  15. Eating Rice in the United States: An Empirical Re-Examination of Consumers' Profile and Rice Demand from the U.S. Dining Plates By Mulimbi, Willy; Han, Joohun; Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Mottaleb, Khondoker
  16. Investigating Production Cycles in the U.S. Softwood Lumber Industry: 1965-2017 By Ling, Kai; Won, Sunjae; Li, Wenying
  17. On the measurement and forecasting of sales volatility: is the quantile approach better? By Nuno Silva
  18. Environmental and Health Impacts of the Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Regulation in the San Joaquin Valley By Zheng, Yanan; Goodhue, Rachael
  19. DIFERENCIAS IDEOLÓGICAS E INTEGRACIÓN REGIONAL EN AMÉRICA DEL SUR By De Mendonça Acevedo Juan Cruz
  20. Datasharing-Anreize im Kontext von Data Act und Data Governance Act By Liebe, Andrea; Bürger, Katrin; Happ, Marina; Wiewiorra, Lukas
  21. Hired Farm Labor in Disequilibrium: Quantifying Foreign Worker Needs in South Korea By Hwang, Jeongha; Baik, Yeongseon; An, Donghwan; Kim, Kwansoo
  22. Robust Two-Sample Mean Inference under Serial Dependence By Ulrich Hounyo; Min Seong Kim
  23. Sell or Keep: Impact Factors Shape Cattle Feeders’ Decisions By Xu, Hongli; Ishdorj, Ariun; Dahlke, Garland
  24. From Many Models, One: Macroeconomic Forecasting with Reservoir Ensembles By Giovanni Ballarin; Lyudmila Grigoryeva; Yui Ching Li
  25. Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reduce Profit Shifting by US Multinational Companies? By Javier Garcia-Bernardo; Petr Janský; Gabriel Zucman
  26. Digital monitoring, algorithmic management and the platformisation of work in the EU By Gonzalez Vazquez Ignacio; Mariscal De Gante Martin Alvaro; Hemmert Guillaume
  27. Teletrabajo y bienestar tras la pandemia: evidencia para la República Checa By Mateos Cendrero, Juan Diego
  28. CO2-Bilanz einer Kupfer-Glasfaser-Migration in Deutschland By Zuloaga, Gonzalo; Plückebaum, Thomas; Kulenkampff, Gabriele; Eltges, Fabian
  29. Immigration Enforcement and Food Safety: Evidence from US Meat and Poultry Processing Plants By Wagle, Sampada; Katarej, Bhagyashree
  30. AI tutoring enhances student learning without crowding out reading effort By Fischer, Mira; Rau, Holger A.; Rilke, Rainer Michael
  31. Optimisation de la supply chain par les modèles prédictifs : Regards croisés de managers marocains sur l'implémentation de l'IA et du Big Data By Sami Elbadri; Rachid Elbadri; Redouane Oubal; Mounia Cherkaoui
  32. Two-Step Regularized HARX to Measure Volatility Spillovers in Multi-Dimensional Systems By Mindy L. Mallory
  33. Trade Within Multinational Boundaries By Laura Alfaro; Paula Conconi; Fariha FK Kamal; Zachary ZK Kroll
  34. Warp speed price moves: Jumps after earnings announcements By Kim Christensen; Allan Timmermann; Bezirgen Veliyev
  35. How AI Agents Follow the Herd of AI? Network Effects, History, and Machine Optimism By Yu Liu; Wenwen Li; Yifan Dou; Guangnan Ye

  1. By: Alice Albonico; Guido Ascari; Alessandro Gobbi
    Abstract: We consider a medium-scale macroeconomic model where the zero lower bound on interest rates remains binding permanently. We estimate the model for the Japanese economy, encompassing both active and passive fiscal policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a predominantly passive fiscal policy stance during the period spanning from 1995 to 2023. We compute fiscal multipliers for various policy instruments, showing that under the backdrop of passive fiscal policy: i) multipliers are lower than in an active fiscal policy regime; ii) government spending multipliers remain below one; iii) tax reductions can be associated with a decrease in output and in ation. A counterfactual analysis suggests that a more active fiscal policy would have resulted in a higher price level without increasing output volatility.
    Keywords: permanent liquidity trap, indeterminacy, active and passive fiscal policy, fiscal multipliers, Japan.
    JEL: E52 E62 H63
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:566
  2. By: Ulrike Stein (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))
    Abstract: Das Rentenpaket 2025 zielt auf die Stabilisierung des Rentenniveaus und der Gleichstellung der Kindererziehungszeiten ab. Eine dauerhafte Stabilisierung des Rentenniveaus ist zur Lebensstandardsicherung unerlässlich, da eine Befristung bis zum 1. Juli 2031 zu kurz greift. Alle Generationen profitieren gleichermaßen von der Maßnahme; jüngere Generationen werden nicht benachteiligt, und die Reform ist finanziell tragbar. Die Mütterente III ist aus Gerechtigkeitsgründen nachvollziehbar, jedoch teuer und bürokratisch; die Mittel sollten in anderen Bereichen eingesetzt werden. Die Erhöhung der Nachhaltigkeitsreserve auf 0, 3 Monatsausgaben ist sinnvoll, sollte jedoch nicht ausschließlich zu Lasten der Versicherten gehen. Fortschreiberegeln und Bundeszuschüsse sollten transparenter gestaltet, verlässlich sein und nicht beitragsgedeckte Leistungen ausreichend finanziert werden. Arbeitsrechtliche Anpassungen zur freiwilligen Weiterbeschäftigung nach der Regelaltersgrenze sollten bürokratisch vereinfacht werden, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Aktivierung ungenutzter Erwerbspotentiale im erwerbsfähigen Alter liegen sollte.
    Keywords: Rentenversicherung, Beitragssatz, Sicherungsniveau, Bundeszuschüsse, Regelaltersgrenze, Rentenpaket 2025, Dynamisches Rentenversicherungsmodell, DyReMo, Generationengerechtigkeit, Mütterrente III
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:200-2025
  3. By: Manner, Richard H.; Baker, Justin S.
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361219
  4. By: Marianne Lefebvre (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Laure Latruffe (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Maxime Colin (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Adeline Alonso Ugaglia (UMR SAVE - Santé et agroécologie du vignoble - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut des Sciences de la Vigne et du Vin (ISVV) - Bordeaux Sciences Agro - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Julie Borg (PSH - Plantes et systèmes de culture horticoles - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yann Desjeux (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Gaëlle Leduc (UB - Université de Bordeaux, D-ERDW - Departement Erdwissenschaften [ETH Zürich] - ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]); Aurélien Milliat (IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]); Laure Perchepied (IRHS-VADIPOM - IRHS - Équipe VaDiPom (Valorisation de la Diversité des Pomoïdées) - IRHS - Institut de Recherche en Horticulture et Semences - UA - Université d'Angers - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Yann Raineau (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Achieving ambitious pesticide reduction goals calls for collaboration and shared vision among multiple stakeholders. This study evaluates whether this is the case in three French pesticide-intensive production sectors: vine-growing, orchards and fruits & vegetables farming. To do so, it uses the Q-method to assess farmers' decision-making criteria when selecting crop protection strategies, taking stock of technical, economic, and organizational constraints, as well as health and environmental impacts. It also compares these criteria with the perspectives of researchers and advisors on farmers' priorities. After combining a factor analysis with a fractional multilogit model accounting for factor loadings, the findings reveal four distinct profiles across the sample: a competitiveness-oriented approach; a focus on reducing health and environmental impacts; a risk management perspective; and an integrated vision combining multiple priorities. Being a farmer, advisor, or researcher significantly influences the likelihood of belonging to one profile or another. However, close interactions between farmers, researchers, and advisors help bridge differences in priorities, fostering more closely aligned perspectives on crop protection strategies. These results point to key indicators that researchers and advisors could leverage to better inform farmers about alternative crop protection methods, ultimately supporting more sustainable agricultural practices.
    Keywords: Farm advisory services, Multi-stakeholder, Crop protection, Decision-making criteria, Q-method, Pesticides
    Date: 2026–01–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05426595
  5. By: Giuseppe Attanasi; Giuseppe Ciccarone; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo
    Abstract: We propose a simple model that connects creativity to rational inattention, introducing a new formal channel through which imprecise information generates creative benefits. While imprecision usually entails costs, it can also make creativity a complementary dimension of information acquisition, reshaping the trade-off between attention and decision quality. Our main result is that creativity reduces the effective cost of information processing.
    Keywords: Selective Attention; Information Processing Costs; Cognitive Constraints; Innovation
    JEL: D90 O31 D80
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp268
  6. By: Zafer Kanik; Zaruhi Hakobyan
    Abstract: Social media platforms systematically reward popularity but not authenticity, incentivizing users to strategically tailor their expression for attention. We develop a utilitarian framework addressing strategic expression in social media. Agents hold fixed heterogeneous authentic opinions and derive (i) utility gains from the popularity of their own posts--measured by likes received--, and (ii) utility gains (losses) from exposure to content that aligns with (diverges from) their authentic opinion. Social media interaction acts as a state-dependent welfare amplifier: light topics generate Pareto improvements, whereas intense topics make everyone worse off in a polarized society (e.g., political debates during elections). Moreover, strategic expression amplifies social media polarization during polarized events while dampening it during unified events (e.g., national celebrations). Consequently, strategic distortions magnify welfare outcomes, expanding aggregate gains in light topics while exacerbating losses in intense, polarized ones. Counterintuitively, strategic agents often face a popularity trap: posting a more popular opinion is individually optimal, yet collective action by similar agents eliminates their authentic opinion from the platform, leaving them worse off than under the authentic-expression benchmark. Preference-based algorithms--widely used by platforms--or homophilic exposures discipline popularity-driven behavior, narrowing the popularity trap region and limiting its welfare effects. Our framework fills a critical gap in the social media literature by providing a microfoundation for user welfare that maps to observable metrics, while also introducing popularity incentives as an unexplored channel in social networks distinct from the canonical mechanisms of conformity, learning, persuasion, and (mis)information transmission.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.01370
  7. By: Shen, Shaoxin; Cui, Mengyi; Zheng, Fengtian
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360664
  8. By: Florent Saucède (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Lucie Sirieix (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Archana Kumar (MSU - Montclair State University [USA])
    Abstract: Supply chain actors are exploring the potential of blockchain to enhance the sustainability of food systems and mitigate public health risks through end-to-end traceability. To promote these systems, product information is extracted and communicated to consumers via a QR code af- fixed to packaging. Our longitudinal and cross-cultural study provides an in-depth examination of consumer perceptions of these systems. The findings highlight both the benefits and barriers to consumer adoption of blockchain, discussing the technology's potential contribution to im- proving consumer food literacy.
    Abstract: Les acteurs des chaînes d'approvisionnement explorent le potentiel de la blockchain pour ren- forcer la durabilité de l'alimentation et prévenir les risques de crises sanitaires par une traçabi- lité de bout-en-bout. Pour valoriser ces dispositifs, des informations sur les produits sont ex- traites et communiquées aux consommateurs via un QR code apposé aux emballages. Notre étude longitudinale et multiculturelle examine en profondeur les perceptions des consomma- teurs à l'égard de ces dispositifs. Les résultats soulignent les avantages et les obstacles à l'adop- tion de la blockchain par les consommateurs pour discuter du potentiel de contribution de la technologie à la littératie alimentaire des consommateurs.
    Keywords: Consumer Behavior, Blockchain, Literacy, Food, consommateur, littéracie, traçabilité, alimentation
    Date: 2025–10–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05443261
  9. By: Souibgui, Moez; Ben Zina, Naceur
    Abstract: This paper examines the theoretical foundations and methodological challenges of assessing border effects in international trade. The border effect serves as an empirical tool to evaluate economic integration by analyzing trade flows and internal exchanges within a region or country. Using gravity models, which effectively capture the impact of economic size, distance, and trade agreements on bilateral trade, this study investigates the trade relationship between the Union of the Maghreb (UMA) and the European Union (EU) from 1995 to 2016. The findings indicate a significant border effect, with intra-Maghreb trade being 3.68 times higher than trade between the UMA and the EU, despite preferential agreements with Europe. Globalization has transformed the role of borders, yet they remain crucial in shaping trade and economic policies. While the Maghreb belongs to multiple regional organizations, its economic integration remains limited, reinforcing dependence on the EU. Additionally, security concerns, including migration and counterterrorism, increasingly influence trade relations. The study concludes that globalization does not eliminate borders but redefines them. Despite increased connectivity and trade liberalization, economic, political, and security factors continue to shape international trade dynamics, highlighting the enduring significance of borders in global economic relations.
    Keywords: Border effects, gravity model, international trade, globalization, trade flows
    JEL: A11 E0
    Date: 2025–12–18
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127388
  10. By: Zapata-Valencia, Raquel; Couleau, Anabelle; Muñoz-Mora, Juan Carlos
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Farm Management
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360689
  11. By: James Alm (Tulane University); Yvette Lind (BI Norwegian Business School)
    Abstract: It is increasingly recognized that the individual income tax leads to disparate treatment by race, ethnicity, and gender, even when the statutory tax code is written in a race-, ethnicity-, and gender-blind way. Partly in response to these disparate treatments, there have been many suggestions for moving the income tax to more neutral treatments of taxpayers. In this paper, we focus on a specific aspect of these reform efforts: making the individual income tax gender neutral. We first examine the many sources of gender non-neutrality in the income tax. We argue that gender non-neutrality arises largely because of deviations of "income" in the tax code from "comprehensive income, " deviations that are driven by the many things that we want the tax to achieve, by the ways in which the specific features of the income tax interact with the economic decisions and roles of individuals, and by the differences in these decisions and roles between women and men. We illustrate the results of these tax features on gender non-neutrality with several specific examples drawn largely from Scandinavian tax practices. We conclude that it is possible to make the income tax more gender neutral, so that a gender-neutral income tax is feasible. However, we also conclude that complete gender neutrality would come at the expense of other desired goals; that is, complete gender neutrality is at odds with all that we ask of the tax code, including targeting tax benefits at groups like women who have experienced significant historical inequities in their tax treatment, so that a completely gender-neutral income tax is not desirable because we wish to use the income tax to achieve many other worthwhile goals. Safeguards actively promoting the specific circumstances of women may be necessary, as such biased tax features could be used as a way of moving toward more gender-equal outcomes. In light of these arguments, we suggest that one alternative to promoting complete gender neutrality in the tax code could be to consider affirmative action in some circumstances as a way of fostering gender-neutral outcomes, rather than to aim for a gender-neutral tax code with inequitable outcomes induced by societal and cultural influences. Another option that has proven successful elsewhere could be to actively employ gender budgeting assessments when introducing new tax legislation and budgets.
    Keywords: Broad-based, low-rate taxation, comprehensive income, Haig Simons standard, optimal taxation, tax reform
    JEL: H2 H7
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2508
  12. By: Mu, Yali; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan; Asqui, Gabriel Alejandro Rosero; Brümmer, Bernhard
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360657
  13. By: Xiong, Hang; Zhang, Shiyun; Zhan, Jintao; Xu, Zhigang
    Keywords: International Development
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361007
  14. By: Zuloaga, Gonzalo; Plückebaum, Thomas; Kulenkampff, Gabriele; Ockenfels, Martin
    Abstract: Mobilfunknetze müssen sich immer wieder veränderten Nutzungsbedürfnissen anpassen, da sie mit knappen Frequenzressourcen arbeiten. Im Vordergrund steht dabei primär das ständig steigende Datenvolumen, dann aber auch die sich ändernden Qualitätsanforderungen, insbesondere in Bezug auf Signallaufzeiten und Zuverlässigkeit der Übertragung. Diese werden wesentlich in den Funkzugangsnetzen (RAN) bestimmt, die ca. 50 % des Energieverbrauchs der Mobilfunknetze benötigen. Daher konzentriert sich diese Studie auf dieses Netzsegment. Die Anpassung der Mobilfunknetze erfolgt einerseits durch den Einsatz neuer Funkschnittstellen, neuer und leistungsfähigerer Codierungsverfahren, neuer Antennentechniken und zusätzlicher neuer Frequenzbänder in höheren Frequenzlagen. Höhere Frequenzlagen (Trägerfrequenzen) haben jedoch andere, i.d.R. beschränktere Ausbreitungscharakteristika bzgl. Reichweite, Störungsempfindlichkeit und Umgehung/Penetration von Sichtbehinderungen, wie z. B. Geländestrukturen, Bäume oder Gebäude. Die neuen Technologien und die neuen Frequenzressourcen bieten erhebliche Bandbreitenverbesserungen und übertragen den Verkehr effizienter. Sie bieten durch die neuen Codierungen und Antennentechniken deutlich mehr Kapazität zur Datenübertragung, aber natürlich haben sie auch einen anderen Energiebedarf. Ein Kernproblem in Mobilfunknetzen ist die Grundlast im RAN, d.h. die permanente Sende- und Empfangsbereitschaft, wegen der das RAN in Niederlastzeiten nicht vollständig abgeschaltet werden kann. Hier gab es mit der 5G Funkschnittstelle deutliche Fortschritte. Die Studie beschreibt auf der Basis von Erfahrungen aus der Modellierung des Energieverbrauches in bestehenden Mobilfunknetzen die Zusammenhänge von Nutzerbedarfsveränderungen und Energieverbrauch, unter Einbeziehung neuer, energieeffizienterer Technologien und neuer Frequenzen, bis hin zur Wirkung von Funkzellverdichtungen. Dabei wird gezeigt, dass das Datenvolumen nur ein eingeschränkt geeigneter Proxy für die Prognose des Energieverbrauchs von Funkzugangsnetzen ist. Im Ergebnis bleibt die Perspektive, dass der Energieverbrauch der Mobilfunknetze angesichts der stark wachsenden Nachfrage und trotz einer deutlichen Steigerung der Energieeffizienz der Netztechnologien, sichtbar ansteigen wird. Dem kann weiterhin begegnet werden, indem ergänzend zu den Mobilfunknetzen, insbesondere in Gebäuden, das Zusammenspiel von Smartphones durch Mobile-Offloading über Wi-Fi in Glasfaserfestnetze weiter ausgebaut wird und so die Mobilfunknetze entlastet werden.
    Abstract: Mobile telecommunication networks must be adapted to changing user demand in a frequent manner, because they rely on scarce frequency resources. In the fore is the permanently increasing data volume per user, but next comes the increasing quality demand, especially regarding the latency and reliability of the transmission. All will be dominantly determined by the Radio Access Networks (RAN). The RAN consumes approximately 50 % of the power consumption of the mobile networks. Thus, this study concentrates on this important network segment. The adaption on the increasing demand will be taken care off by introducing new radio interfaces with new and more powerful coding methods, new antenna techniques, additional frequency blocks in higher frequency spaces. Higher frequency spaces (bearer frequencies) have different typically more restricted emission characteristics regarding reach, noise susceptibility and surrounding/ penetration of walls, line of sight interruptions, by landscape/ surface, trees/ forests or buildings. The new technologies and frequency resources offer significant bandwidth improvements and transmit traffic more efficiently. By new coding and new antenna techniques they offer significantly higher data transmission capacity. But of course, they have a different power consumption demand. A mobile radio network's core problem is the basic power demand for being always on to send or receive transmissions, thus the RAN cannot be switched off completely. 5G new radio improves this situation by allowing to switch-off frequency blocks completely, if at least some blocks remain ready to operate for sensing and activating on demand. Based on experience on modelling energy demand in existing mobile networks the study describes the interdependencies of changing user demand and power demand, taking into account new and more energy efficient technologies and new frequency blocks up to radio cell densification This shows that data volume is only a limited proxy for forecasting the energy consumption of wireless access networks. As a result, the view remains that the total power consumption of mobile networks will increase significantly due to strong demand, which exceeds the substantial increase in the energy efficiency of telecommunications network elements. One can counteract these effects by improving the inhome/indoor interaction of smartphones and Wi-Fi access points for mobile off-loading, thus relaxing the mobile network load.
    Keywords: Telefonnetz, Energieeinsparung, Telekommunikationsnetz, Konsumentenverhalten, Telekommunikationspreis
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wikdps:334507
  15. By: Mulimbi, Willy; Han, Joohun; Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Mottaleb, Khondoker
    Keywords: Marketing
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360867
  16. By: Ling, Kai; Won, Sunjae; Li, Wenying
    Keywords: Production Economics
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361080
  17. By: Nuno Silva
    Abstract: This paper asks how best to estimate and forecast firms’ residualized sales growth volatility, a standard measure of idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using a comprehensive dataset of Portuguese firms from 2006 to 2022, I compare the most common approaches used in the literature with a novel quantile-based method that exploits past cross-sectional information and contemporaneous macroeconomic variables and adjusts for the predictability in sales growth rates. I then estimate forecasting models and conduct a simulation exercise to assess the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of all approaches. The paper contributes to the literature by showing that quantile-based estimates and forecasts outperform traditional methods and that sales growth volatility can be measured with reasonable precision, making it suitable for wider application in empirical work. These findings support the application of quantile-based volatility measures to other low-frequency economic variables, especially those characterized by fat-tailed distributions.
    JEL: C53 D22 G30 L25 G32
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202525
  18. By: Zheng, Yanan; Goodhue, Rachael
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360789
  19. By: De Mendonça Acevedo Juan Cruz
    Abstract: América Latina ha priorizado la integración regional mediante acuerdos formales (de jure), bajo un paradigma estructural que busca fomentar el desarrollo y la cooperación. Desde los años 80, con las reformas neoliberales, se adoptó un enfoque liberal que ve la integración como parte de la apertura comercial. Este estudio analiza cómo las diferencias ideológicas entre gobiernos sudamericanos inciden en la sincronización de sus ciclos económicos, fenómeno significativo en la integración económica. Basado en la Teoría de Partidos, la Teoría Oportunista del ciclo político-económico y el marco de Áreas Monetarias Óptimas, se evalúa si la afinidad ideológica influye en dicha sincronización. Se emplean datos anuales de 1990 a 2019 para los 12 países de Sudamérica, explorando los efectos de distintos canales políticos y económicos mediante diversas especificaciones econométricas.
    JEL: F0 H0
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4791
  20. By: Liebe, Andrea; Bürger, Katrin; Happ, Marina; Wiewiorra, Lukas
    Abstract: Die Studie untersucht, warum das Teilen von Daten zwischen Unternehmen sein vorhandenes Potenzial bislang nicht ausschöpft, obwohl empirische Befunde zeigen, dass Datenteilen im B2B-Kontext zu zusätzlichen Umsätzen, Effizienzgewinnen und Innovationschancen führen kann. Derzeit bleiben rund 80 Prozent der industriellen Daten ungenutzt. Zentrale Hemmnisse sind rechtliche Unsicherheiten, unzureichende Datenqualität sowie fehlender Zugang zu Daten Dritter. Im Mittelpunkt stehen Unternehmen mit mittlerer Bereitschaft zum Datenteilen. Diese sind dem Datenaustausch grundsätzlich aufgeschlossen, zögern jedoch aufgrund von Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich des Datenwerts, der Preisbildung und der Fairness der Austauschbeziehungen. Die Studie basiert auf einem theoriegeleiteten, literaturbasierten Ansatz sowie leitfadengestützten Expertengesprächen. Ziel ist es, ökonomische Anreizmechanismen zu identifizieren, die Informationsasymmetrien reduzieren, Transparenz erhöhen und eine faire Wertverteilung im Datenaustausch ermöglichen. Ergänzend werden der Data Act und der Data Governance Act hinsichtlich ihrer Eignung zur Förderung tragfähiger Datasharing-Strukturen analysiert. Beide Rechtsakte wirken komplementär: Der Data Act etabliert als regulatorische Ultima Ratio verbindliche Mindeststandards, etwa durch Transparenzpflichten, standardisierte Zugangsrechte und faire Vertragsbedingungen. Der Data Governance Act stärkt über zertifizierte Intermediäre, Neutralitätsanforderungen und institutionelle Vertrauensmechanismen insbesondere Konstellationen mit mittlerer Datenteilungsbereitschaft. Die Studie zeigt bestehende Defizite bei Datenbewertung, dynamischer Preisbildung und Wertverteilungsmodellen auf und betont, dass ein funktionierender europäischer Datenmarkt nur durch das Zusammenspiel von Regulierung und ökonomisch fundierten Anreizsystemen entstehen kann.
    Abstract: The study examines why data sharing between companies has not yet reached its full potential, even though empirical findings show that data sharing in a B2B context can lead to additional revenue, efficiency gains and innovation opportunities. Currently, around 80 per cent of industrial data remains unused. The main obstacles are legal uncertainties, insufficient data quality and a lack of access to third-party data. The focus is on companies with a moderate willingness to share data. These companies are generally open to data exchange, but hesitate due to uncertainties regarding data value, pricing and the fairness of exchange relationships. The study is based on a theory-driven, literature-based approach and guided expert interviews. The aim is to identify economic incentive mechanisms that reduce information asymmetries, increase transparency and enable fair value distribution in data exchange. In addition, the Data Act and the Data Governance Act are analysed in terms of their suitability for promoting sustainable data sharing structures. Both pieces of legislation are complementary: as a regulatory last resort, the Data Act establishes binding minimum standards, for example through transparency requirements, standardised access rights and fair contractual terms. The Data Governance Act strengthens constellations with a medium willingness to share data in particular through certified intermediaries, neutrality requirements and institutional trust mechanisms. The study highlights existing deficits in data valuation, dynamic pricing and value distribution models and emphasises that a functioning European data market can only be created through the interaction of regulation and economically sound incentive systems.
    Keywords: Data Sharing, Unternehmen, Datenschutz, Datenmanagement, Deutschland
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wikdps:334489
  21. By: Hwang, Jeongha; Baik, Yeongseon; An, Donghwan; Kim, Kwansoo
    Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360955
  22. By: Ulrich Hounyo; Min Seong Kim
    Abstract: We propose robust two-sample tests for comparing means in time series. The framework accommodates a wide range of applications, including structural breaks, treatment-control comparisons, and group-averaged panel data. We first consider series HAR two-sample t-tests, where standardization employs orthonormal basis projections, ensuring valid inference under heterogeneity and nonparametric dependence structures. We propose a Welch-type t-approximation with adjusted degrees of freedom to account for long-run variance heterogeneity across the series. We further develop a series-based HAR wild bootstrap test, extending traditional wild bootstrap methods to the time-series setting. Our bootstrap avoids resampling blocks of observations and delivers superior finite-sample performance.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.11259
  23. By: Xu, Hongli; Ishdorj, Ariun; Dahlke, Garland
    Keywords: Marketing
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360828
  24. By: Giovanni Ballarin; Lyudmila Grigoryeva; Yui Ching Li
    Abstract: Model combination is a powerful approach for achieving superior performance compared to selecting a single model. We study both theoretically and empirically the effectiveness of ensembles of Multi-Frequency Echo State Networks (MFESNs), which have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art macroeconomic time series forecasting results (Ballarin et al., 2024a). The Hedge and Follow-the-Leader schemes are discussed, and their online learning guarantees are extended to settings with dependent data. In empirical applications, the proposed Ensemble Echo State Networks demonstrate significantly improved predictive performance relative to individual MFESN models.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.13642
  25. By: Javier Garcia-Bernardo (Charles University, Utrecht University); Petr Janský (Charles University); Gabriel Zucman (Paris School of Economics, Berkeley)
    Abstract: The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act lowered the US corporate tax rate and introduced provisions to curb profit shifting. We combine survey data, tax data, and firm financial statements to study the evolution of the geographical allocation of US firms’ profits after the reform. Between 2017 and 2020, the share of profits booked abroad declined by 1–5 percentage points, in part related to repatriations of intellectual property to the US. However, the share of foreign profits booked in tax havens remained stable at around 50%. While aggregated changes in profit allocation are small, a number of firms responded strongly.
    Keywords: Multinational corporation; corporate taxation; profit shifting; effective tax rate; country-by-country reporting; Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
    JEL: F23 H25 H26 H32
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:wpaper:042
  26. By: Gonzalez Vazquez Ignacio (European Commission - JRC); Mariscal De Gante Martin Alvaro (European Commission - JRC); Hemmert Guillaume
    Abstract: This policy brief describes the main results from the AIM-WORK survey regarding digital monitoring, algorithmic management and the platformisation of work across Member States.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc144330
  27. By: Mateos Cendrero, Juan Diego
    Abstract: The rapid expansion of teleworking in the Czech Republic following the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the debate regarding its impact on employee wellbeing. This study aims to analyze the relationship between teleworking and various dimensions of personal health, specifically focusing on general wellbeing, mental health (depression), and work-life balance. Using microdata from the 2021 European Working Conditions Telephone Survey (EWCTS), the research employs linear and non-linear (logit) econometric models to test whether telework acts as a significant determinant of these dimensions. The empirical results show that teleworking does not have a direct or robust effect on general wellbeing or the probability of depression once sociodemographic and labour characteristics are controlled. Furthermore, while partial telework initially appears to improve work-life balance in basic models, this effect loses statistical significance when introducing additional controls such as working hours and the nature of the job. The findings suggest that the potential benefits of remote work are highly dependent on job quality, workload, and organizational context rather than the work modality itself.
    Keywords: teleworking, wellbeing, mental health, work-life balance, Czech Republic, COVID-19.
    JEL: D60 J01
    Date: 2026–01–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127773
  28. By: Zuloaga, Gonzalo; Plückebaum, Thomas; Kulenkampff, Gabriele; Eltges, Fabian
    Abstract: Diese Studie analysiert die energie- und emissionsbezogenen Wirkungen der Kupfer-Glasfaser-Migration im deutschen Anschlussnetz vor dem Hintergrund der klimapolitischen Zielsetzungen des European Green Deal, der seit 2019 eine Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen um 50 % bis 2030 sowie Klimaneutralität bis 2050 vorsieht. Ziel der Analyse ist es, den Beitrag des Glasfaserausbaus zur Steigerung der Energieeffizienz und zur Reduktion der CO₂-Emissionen differenziert zu bewerten und auf Basis szenariobasierter Modellrechnungen Maßnahmen zu identifizieren, die diese Effekte gezielt unterstützen. Methodisch basiert die Studie auf einem Bottom-Up-Modellansatz. In einem ersten Schritt wird über eine detaillierte Netzdimensionierung das Mengengerüst sowohl der passiven Infrastruktur für den FTTH/B-Netzausbau als auch der aktiven Netzkomponenten für den Netzbetrieb ermittelt. Der Ausbau berücksichtigt ausschließlich die noch erforderlichen Trassenkilometer für eine flächendeckende Glasfasererschließung. Das Mengengerüst des Netzbetriebs differenziert nach Zugangstechnologien und wird im Zeitverlauf durch die modellierte Kupfer-Glasfaser-Migration variiert. In einem zweiten Schritt werden diese Mengengerüste mit technologiespezifischen Stromverbräuchen und globalen Emissionsfaktoren für Deutschland verknüpft, sodass sowohl der Energieverbrauch als auch die CO₂-Emissionen von Netzausbau und -betrieb jahresbezogen bis 2050 ermittelt werden können. Die zugrundeliegende Datenbasis besteht aus gemeindespezifischen Struktur- und Versorgungsdaten von DESTATIS, dem Breitbandatlas der Bundesnetzagentur sowie technischen und umweltbezogenen Kenndaten einzelner Netzelemente, insbesondere standardisierte Energiegrenzwerte aus dem EU Code of Conduct on Energy Consumption of Broadband Communication Equipment. Die Modellergebnisse zeigen, dass eine vollständige Anschlussmigration auf FTTH relevante Energieeinsparpotenziale aufweiset, die die Emissionen des Glasfaserausbaus bis 2040 vollständig amortisieren. Somit ist bis 2050 mit einer insgesamt positiven Netto-Bilanz des Glasfaserausbaus durch die Kupfer-Glasfaser-Migration in Deutschland zu rechnen. Ein Verbleib von FTTB-, DOCSIS- oder Mobilfunkanschlüssen würde diese Entwicklung nachteilig beeinflussen und könnte sogar die positive ökologische Netto-Bilanz von Glasfaserausbau- und -Migration gefährden. Zusätzlich kann die Dekarbonisierung des Energiemixes zum Multiplikator der Migration werden. Die Kupfer-Glasfaser-Migration steigert Energieeffizienz im Netzbetrieb, die Dekarbonisierung trägt ferner dazu bei, dass die erzeugte Energie zunehmend ohne CO₂- Emissionen erzeugt werden kann. In jedem Fall ist eine Verringerung des Energiebedarfs oder dessen unterproportionalem Wachstum im Verhältnis zur Steigerung der Datenvolumina von wesentlicher Bedeutung, unabhängig davon, wie sauber die Energie erzeugt wird. Elektrische Energie benötigt immer Ressourcen, und sei es zur Herstellung und Aufstellung von photovoltaischen Kollektoren und Speicherverfahren zum Ausgleich zwischen Erzeugungs- und Verbrauchszyklen. Ein Verbrauch für die Telekommunikation bedeutet immer, dass diese ggf. sauber erzeugte Energie für andere Zwecke nicht zur Verfügung steht, sieht man einmal von den Kosten für die Energie ab.
    Abstract: This study examines the energy- and emissions-related impacts of the copper-to-fibre migration in the German access network in the context of the climate policy objectives of the European Green Deal, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 % by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The analysis seeks to assess, in a differentiated manner, the contribution of fibre deployment to improvements in energy efficiency and reductions in CO₂ emissions, and to identify - based on scenario-based modelling - measures that can effectively enhance these outcomes. Methodologically, the study applies a bottom-up modelling approach. In a first step, detailed network dimensioning is used to derive the quantity framework for both the passive infrastructure required for FTTH/B deployment and the active network components involved in network operation. The expansion considers exclusively the remaining fiber optic network infrastructure needed to achieve nationwide fibre coverage. The quantity framework for network operation is differentiated by access technology and evolves over time as a result of the modelled copper-to-fibre migration. In a second step, these quantities are combined with technology-specific electricity consumption values and national average emission factors, enabling the quantification of both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from the network deployment and network operation over multiple periods up to 2050. The analysis is based on municipality-level demographical data from DESTATIS, and coverage data from the Breitbandatlas and Bundesnetzagentur, complemented by technical and environmental data of individual network elements, particularly from the standardised energy benchmarks from the EU Code of Conduct on Energy Consumption of Broadband Communication Equipment. The modelling results show that a complete migration to FTTH offers significant energy savings potential, which will completely offset the emissions from fibre optic network rollout by 2040. By 2050, fibre optic expansion is expected to have an overall positive net balance in Germany as a result of the migration from copper to fibre optics. Retaining FTTB, DOCSIS or mobile based connections would have a negative impact on this development and could even jeopardise the positive net ecological balance of fibre optic expansion and migration. In addition, the decarbonisation of the energy mix can become a multiplier for the savings effects of the migration. Copper-fibre migration increases energy efficiency in network operation, while decarbonisation also contributes to the required energy being produced with fewer CO₂ emissions. In any case, reducing energy consumption or ensuring that it grows at a slower rate than the data volumes increase, is essential, regardless of how cleanly the energy is generated. Energy production always requires resources, whether for the production and installation of photovoltaic collectors or for storage methods to balance generation and consumption cycles. Consumption for telecommunications always means that this energy, which may have been generated cleanly, is not available for other purposes, apart from the cost of the energy itself.
    Keywords: Glasfaserkommunikation, Energieeinsparung, Telekommunikationsnetz, Netzwerk, Deutschland
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wikdps:334509
  29. By: Wagle, Sampada; Katarej, Bhagyashree
    Abstract: Immigrant labor constitutes a substantial portion of the US meat and poultry processing workforce. However, the downstream effects of deportations targeting these immigrants on their food safety practices remain largely unexamined. We provide novel empirical evidence that increased deportations of undocumented immigrants are associated with a rise in food safety inspection violations, suggestive of reduced food safety quality at these establishments. We also find evidence that wages and labor market dynamics adjust in ways consistent with labor shortages following deportations, marked by increases in wages, hires, separations, and employment, along with a modest reduction in turnover. By examining the potential downstream food safety risks associated with deportations, this research contributes to the broader policy discussion about the spillover effects of immigration enforcement on food safety and consumer welfare.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360898
  30. By: Fischer, Mira; Rau, Holger A.; Rilke, Rainer Michael
    Abstract: We study how AI tutoring affects learning in higher education through a randomized experiment with 334 university students preparing for an incentivized exam. Students either received only textbook material, restricted access to an AI tutor requiring initial independent reading, or unrestricted access throughout the study period. AI tutor access raises test performance by 0.23 standard deviations relative to control. Surprisingly, unrestricted access significantly outperforms restricted access by 0.21 standard deviations, contradicting concerns about premature AI reliance. Behavioral analysis reveals that unrestricted access fosters gradual integration of AI support, while restricted access induces intensive bursts of prompting that disrupt learning flow. Benefits are heterogeneous: AI tutors prove most effective for students with lower baseline knowledge and stronger self-regulation skills, suggesting that seamless AI integration enhances learning when students can strategically combine independent study with targeted support.
    Keywords: AI Tutors, Large Language Models, Self-regulated Learning, Higher Education
    JEL: C91 I21 D83
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:335027
  31. By: Sami Elbadri (Université Ibn Tofail / FEG Kénitra (Maroc)); Rachid Elbadri; Redouane Oubal (Ministère de la santé et de la protection social / Institut Supérieur des Professions Infirmières et Techniques de Santé -ISPITS de Kenitra (Maroc)); Mounia Cherkaoui
    Abstract: Résumé Cette étude explore les défis et les opportunités de l'implémentation de modèles prédictifs basés sur l'IA et le Big Data dans les supply chains d'entreprises marocaines. Une approche qualitative a été adoptée, utilisant des entretiens semi-directifs avec cinq responsables de la grande distribution, de l'industrie et des services. Les résultats révèlent des motivations sectorielles distinctes : la grande distribution se concentre sur la réduction des ruptures de stock, l'industrie sur l'optimisation des coûts, et les services sur l'amélioration de l'expérience client. Les bénéfices perçus incluent une amélioration significative de la précision des prévisions et une optimisation des coûts. Cependant, des défis majeurs persistent, notamment la qualité des données, la résistance au changement et le déficit de compétences. L'étude souligne l'importance d'une approche socio-technique, où la réussite dépend de l'articulation entre dimensions techniques et humaines. Ces résultats offrent des insights précieux pour les praticiens et contribuent à la littérature académique sur l'implémentation de l'IA dans les supply chains des économies émergentes. Mots clés : Intelligence artificielle, Big Data, supply chain, modèles prédictifs, entreprises marocaines. Abstract This study explores the challenges and opportunities of implementing predictive models based on AI and Big Data in the supply chains of Moroccan companies. A qualitative approach was adopted, using semi-structured interviews with five managers from the retail, industrial, and service sectors. The results reveal distinct sector-specific motivations: retail focuses on reducing stock-outs, industry on cost optimization, and services on improving customer experience. Perceived benefits include a significant improvement in forecast accuracy and cost optimization. However, major challenges persist, notably data quality, resistance to change, and skills gap. The study underscores the importance of a socio-technical approach, where success depends on the alignment between technical and human dimensions. These results provide valuable insights for practitioners and contribute to the academic literature on the implementation of AI in the supply chains of emerging economies. Keywords : Artificial intelligence, Big Data, supply chain, predictive models, Moroccan companies.
    Abstract: Déclaration de divulgation : L'auteur n'a pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude.
    Keywords: African Scientific Journal, Intelligence artificielle Big Data supply chain modèles prédictifs entreprises marocaines Artificial intelligence Big Data supply chain predictive models Moroccan companies, Intelligence artificielle, Big Data, supply chain, modèles prédictifs, entreprises marocaines Artificial intelligence, predictive models, Moroccan companies
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05361808
  32. By: Mindy L. Mallory
    Abstract: We identify volatility spillovers across commodities, equities, and treasuries using a hybrid HAR-ElasticNet framework on daily realized volatility for six futures markets over 2002--2025. Our two step procedure estimates own-volatility dynamics via OLS to preserve persistence, then applies ElasticNet regularization to cross-market spillovers. The sparse network structure that emerges shows equity markets (ES, NQ) act as the primary volatility transmitters, while crude oil (CL) ends up being the largest receiver of cross-market shocks. Agricultural commodities stay isolated from the larger network. A simple univariate HAR model achieves equally performing point forecasts as our model, but our approach reveals network structure that univariate models cannot. Joint Impulse Response Functions trace how shocks propagate through the network. Our contribution is to demonstrate that hybrid estimation methods can identify meaningful spillover pathways while preserving forecast performance.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.03146
  33. By: Laura Alfaro; Paula Conconi; Fariha FK Kamal; Zachary ZK Kroll
    Abstract: Traditional theories of firm boundaries predict trade between vertically related units of the same firm. Using novel data that combine a comprehensive map ping of U.S. multinationals’ production networks with their customs filings, we uncover a strong positive relationship between input-output linkages and trade between parents and their affiliates. We also find that intrafirm trade is prevalent, particularly between geographically proximate units: three-quarters of affiliates in North America trade with their U.S. parent. These results overturn prior find ings based on survey data on intrafirm trade. Administrative intrafirm records enable correcting measurement errors in survey data, reconciling traditional the ories with empirical evidence.
    Keywords: multinational enterprises; intrafirm trade; input-output linkage
    JEL: F14 F23 D23 L20
    Date: 2026–01–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/401477
  34. By: Kim Christensen; Allan Timmermann; Bezirgen Veliyev
    Abstract: Corporate earnings announcements unpack large bundles of public information that should, in efficient markets, trigger jumps in stock prices. Testing this implication is difficult in practice, as it requires noisy high-frequency data from after-hours markets, where most earnings announcements are released. Using a unique dataset and a new microstructure noise-robust jump test, we show that earnings announcements almost always induce jumps in the stock price of announcing firms. They also significantly raise the probability of price co-jumps in non-announcing firms and the market. We find that returns from a post-announcement trading strategy are consistent with efficient price formation after 2016.
    Date: 2026–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.08962
  35. By: Yu Liu; Wenwen Li; Yifan Dou; Guangnan Ye
    Abstract: Understanding decision-making in multi-AI-agent frameworks is crucial for analyzing strategic interactions in network-effect-driven contexts. This study investigates how AI agents navigate network-effect games, where individual payoffs depend on peer participatio--a context underexplored in multi-agent systems despite its real-world prevalence. We introduce a novel workflow design using large language model (LLM)-based agents in repeated decision-making scenarios, systematically manipulating price trajectories (fixed, ascending, descending, random) and network-effect strength. Our key findings include: First, without historical data, agents fail to infer equilibrium. Second, ordered historical sequences (e.g., escalating prices) enable partial convergence under weak network effects but strong effects trigger persistent "AI optimism"--agents overestimate participation despite contradictory evidence. Third, randomized history disrupts convergence entirely, demonstrating that temporal coherence in data shapes LLMs' reasoning, unlike humans. These results highlight a paradigm shift: in AI-mediated systems, equilibrium outcomes depend not just on incentives, but on how history is curated, which is impossible for human.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.11943

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