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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Elizaveta Lukmanova (Central Bank of Ireland); Katrin Rabitsch (Vienna University of Economics (WU), Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In light of recent evidence on the significant contribution of persistent monetary shocks to inflation dynamics in the U.S., we study their international transmission. In contrast to standard temporary nominal interest rate shocks, persistent shocks increase long-run inflation and the nominal rate while decreasing the real rate. We find that it leads to non-negligible international spillovers and dollar depreciation. We further show that when it comes to understanding the international spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy, persistent monetary policy shocks rather than temporary nominal interest rate shocks have the potential to explain long-run co-movements of macroeconomic variables across advanced countries. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, International spillovers, Long-run Inflation, Neo-Fisher effect |
| JEL: | E12 F31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp394 |
| By: | Foltas, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel method to uncover shifting thematic priorities in textual business cycle reports and links them to macroeconomic fluctuations. To this end, I leverage qualitative business cycle forecasts published by leading German economic research institutes from 1970-2017 to estimate the proportions of latent topics. These topics are then aggregated into broader macroeconomic subjects using a supervised approach. By extracting the cyclical components of these subjects' proportions, I derive dynamic measures of forecasters' thematic priorities. Correlating the cyclic components with key macroeconomic indicators reveals consistent patterns across economic expansions and contractions. Around economic peaks, forecasters emphasize inflation-related over recession-related topics. I thus propose that forecasters' failure to predict recessions may stem from a tendency to underestimate growth risks and overestimate inflation risks during periods of contractionary monetary policy. Around troughs, forecasters prioritize investment-related topics over general growth considerations. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie stellt eine neue Methode vor, um sich wandelnde thematische Prioritäten in textbasierten Konjunkturberichten aufzudecken und diese mit makroökonomischen Schwankungen zu verknüpfen. Zu diesem Zweck nutze ich qualitative Konjunkturprognosen führender deutscher Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute aus den Jahren 1970 bis 2017, um die Anteile latenter Themen zu schätzen. Diese Themen werden anschließend mithilfe eines überwachten Verfahrens zu breiteren makroökonomischen Themenfeldern aggregiert. Durch die Extraktion der zyklischen Komponenten dieser Themenanteile leite ich dynamische Maße für die thematischen Prioritäten der Prognostiker ab. Die Korrelation der zyklischen Komponenten mit zentralen makroökonomischen Indikatoren zeigt konsistente Muster über Auf- und Abschwungphasen hinweg. Rund um Konjunkturhochs legen Prognostiker einen stärkeren Fokus auf inflations- als auf rezessionsbezogene Themen. Ich schlage daher vor, dass das Scheitern der Prognostiker bei der Vorhersage von Rezessionen auf eine tendenzielle Unterschätzung von Wachstums- und Überschätzung von Inflationsrisiken in Phasen restriktiver Geldpolitik zurückzuführen sein könnte. Rund um konjunkturelle Tiefpunkte priorisieren Prognostiker investitionsbezogene Themen gegenüber allgemeinen Wachstumsüberlegungen. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic forecasting, Evaluating forecasts, Recession forecasting, Topic Modeling, Natural language processing, Judgemental forecasting |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwiwp:334495 |
| By: | Smolenska, Agnieszka; Taeger, Matthias; Goumet, Laudine; Almeida, Elena; Miller, Hugh; Poensgen, Ira |
| Abstract: | This report consists of a submission by CETEx made in response to the open consultation by the Bank of England CP10/25 — Enhancing banks’ and insurers’ approaches to managing climate-related risks — Update to SS3/19. The consultation paper sets out the Prudential Regulatory Authority’s (PRA) proposals on updated supervisory expectations for banks and insurers. The proposals would help banks and insurers manage the effects of climate change on their businesses, and thereby maintain the essential services they provide to the economy. This consultation response offers several avenues to refine the proposed PRA approach, drawing on research across the LSE’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130795 |
| By: | Matěj BAJGAR; Keiko ITO; Jonathan TIMMIS |
| Abstract: | We study how R&D spillovers propagate through buyer–supplier networks. The R&D tax credit for large firms in Japan—originally based on incremental increases in R&D expenditures—was revised in 2003 to cover total R&D expenditures. This reduced the cost of marginal R&D outlays for large firms below the ceiling on R&D expenditure, but not for large firms above the ceiling or for SMEs. In a difference-in-differences setting, we find that the reform increased R&D expenditure, innovative output and sales of the treated firms. We further present evidence of positive forward spillovers to downstream firms: the reform led to productivity increases among firms that had a greater share of suppliers treated by the reform. Conversely, we do not find any evidence of backward spillovers to upstream firms. We also do not find any robust effects of the reform on the R&D expenditure and economic performance of Japanese firms' overseas affiliates. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25127 |
| By: | Aguirre Horacio A.; Sangiacomo Máximo |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of a drought on credit, risk and bank performance in Argentina, using credit registry data at the bank-firm level. We estimate difference-in- difference panel data models to measure whether the drought in 2022-23 had an impact on credit to firms and non-performing loans, controlling for banks and borrowers’ features. We identify borrowers exposed to the shock as companies carrying out activities that suffered most from the drought: producers and exporters of soybean, corn and wheat. Our findings suggest that credit to firms exposed to the drought was 5 p.p. y-o-y lower (when measured at the bank-firm level) and 8 p.p. y-o-y lower than to firms not exposed to the event (in real terms in both cases). Non-performing loans to exposed firms increased close to 6 p.p. more than to unaffected firms. When considering staggered impact of the drought across firms, credit growth was even lower, while NPL increase was comparable. Credit supply decreased more to firms in sectors affected by the drought (by around 2p.p.); it may have been influenced by regulation. But higher overall estimates suggest that factors other than regulation and those accounted for in firm and bank controls, individual and time fixed effects, were at play to reduce credit –namely the drought. We also look at bank performance following the drought, comparing banks which were more or less exposed to affected firms: their credit, liquidity, and non-performing loans. We find no significant differences for banks more exposed to the drought, weighted by credit size. Our results indicate that the drought had significant individual impacts on firms credit and their ex post risk, but no discernible systemic effect on banks. |
| JEL: | C23 G21 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4775 |
| By: | Yolanda de Llanos (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Luisa Alamá-Sabater (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Miguel Ángel Márquez (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the concept of left-behind places through the lens of neoendogenous development, with special attention to the role of the social economy in enhancing territorial resilience. Focusing on the Autonomous Community of Extremadura (Spain) as a representative regional case, it investigates the bidirectional relationship between population dynamics and employment using a simultaneous equations model that captures the spatial interdependencies among rural, urban and semi-urban municipalities. The findings highlight that employment growth drives population growth (supporting the idea that people follow jobs) while no evidence is found for the reverse. Local factors such as age structure, foreign population, income per capita and the presence of cooperatives also play a significant role in shaping these dynamics. Notably, the presence of social economy entities has a positive effect on both population and employment growth. The results suggest several policy pathways to mitigate depopulation: promoting employment in urban and intermediate areas, improving rural accessibility, and strengthening the social economy as a key strategy to foster sustainable local development. |
| Keywords: | depopulation, left-behind places, neo-endogenous development, rural, social economy |
| JEL: | C3 O18 O21 R1 R23 R3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/03 |
| By: | Virginia Courdin (UDELAR - Universidad de la República de Uruguay = University of the Republic of Uruguay [Montevideo]); Eric Sabourin (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - UMPV - Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry) |
| Abstract: | Uruguay has historically projected the image of a livestock industry based on independent producers, isolated on dispersed farms. However, in family farmers, collective action is a frequent practice, constituting one of the economic strategies for persistence and reproduction. The public policies implemented between 2005 and 2019 promoted various forms of collective action for family production from a vision of territorial rural development. The article comes from a study that sought to characterize the collective action of family ranchers in the North Coast region of the country, through the review of documentary sources and conducting semi-structured interviews with qualified informants (30) and collective references (50). In the region, there is a diversity of groups that, according to objectives and trajectories, are classified into four types: integral, economic, traditional and productive. In all four types, collective action coordination processes are observed, which differ in the degree of maturity reached according to the trajectories followed. In all of them, it is evident that the processes of formalization or institutionalization of the collectives grant legitimacy to practices that have always been developed by family ranchers, such as mutual help or shared management of assets. |
| Abstract: | Uruguay históricamente ha brindado la imagen de una ganadería basada en productores independientes, aislados en explotaciones dispersas. Sin embargo, en los ganaderos familiares la acción colectiva es una práctica frecuente que constituye una de las estrategias económicas para la persistencia y la reproducción. Las políticas públicas implementadas entre 2005 y 2019 promovieron diversas formas de acción colectiva para la producción familiar desde una visión de desarrollo rural territorial. El artículo proviene de un estudio que procuró caracterizar la acción colectiva de los ganaderos familiares de la región Litoral norte del país, mediante la revisión de fuentes documentales y la realización de entrevistas semiestructuradas a informantes calificados (30) y referentes de colectivos (50). En la región existe una diversidad de colectivos que, según objetivos y trayectorias, se clasifican en cuatro tipos, integrales, económicos, tradicionales y productivos. En los cuatro tipos se observan procesos de coordinación de acción colectiva, que se diferencian en el grado de madurez logrado de acuerdo con las trayectorias recorridas. En todos los casos se evidencia que la formalización o institucionalización de los colectivos otorga legitimidad a prácticas desarrolladas desde siempre por los ganaderos familiares, como la ayuda mutua o la gestión compartida de bienes. |
| Keywords: | exploitation agricole familiale, Uruguay, action collective, politique publique, agriculture familiale, développement rural, ferme d'élevage, organisation de producteurs, développement économique, Réciprocité, développement régional, Action collective, Élevage familial, Organisation de producteurs |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05403022 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | For several years, the growing vulnerabilities of European ports have become increasingly evident, revealing how exposed critical infrastructures are to simultaneous cyber, geopolitical, and organizational risks. The rapid digitization of port operations, coupled with the deep interconnection of global supply chains, has heightened the dependence of freight flows on complex IT systems, in which even minor failures can trigger major disruptions. As a result, ports are becoming high-value targets for actors seeking either to destabilize commercial activity or exploit structural weaknesses. This research note highlights the convergence of several issues: extreme process optimization that undermines system resilience, increasing reliance on heterogeneous technologies, and persistent difficulties in coordinating multiple public and private stakeholders. At the same time, the European Union (EU) faces strategic constraints due to the absence of a unified logistical vision and stark disparities in modernization between major gateways and secondary ports. In response, four priority areas of action emerge: integrating logistical policy into the broader EU industrial strategy, accelerating the digital transformation of port infrastructure, reinforcing cybersecurity and civil-military cooperation mechanisms, and harmonizing operational standards to enhance the overall resilience of the European port system. |
| Keywords: | digitalization, European ports, logistics, maritime governance, risk management, supply chain vulnerabilities, Cybersecurity |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05447905 |
| By: | Gafarov, Bulat; Gong, Tengda; Hilscher, Jens |
| Abstract: | Fresh produce is the largest category of organic food sales in the U.S. This paper studies the relative price dynamics of organic versus conventional produce from 2006 to 2023. Using retail scanner data, we find that the revenue-weighted average price of organic produce declined relative to conventional produce across major grocery markets beginning in 2017, with the exception of a brief uptick following the onset of COVID-19. Prior to 2017, the relative price exhibited substantial fluctuations without a clear trend. Our analyses show that macroeconomic and market factors—real interest rate, housing prices, unemployment, product supply and variety as well as retailer concentration—account for a substantial share of this variation, especially the post-2016 downward trend. In addition, weather conditions in major fruit- and vegetable-producing states—precipitation and temperature—contribute significantly to short-term price fluctuations and place upward pressure on the relative price. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360596 |
| By: | Soumoy, L.; Abada, I.; Ehrenmann, A.; Massol, O. |
| Abstract: | The energy transition requires massive and costly investments in low-carbon power generation and storage. The private sector, however, is increasingly reluctant to undertake such investments. One of the main reasons is that electricity markets are incomplete: risk-averse investors are facing growing risk factors, but are unable to exchange or mitigate these risks beyond a few years. Hybrid market designs, by adding Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), Power Purchase Agreements, and other financial instruments to the energy spot market, allow a better risk allocation between market agents, and have been shown to efficiently foster investment in new generators. Few studies have, however, quantified their efficiency in future systems with a high penetration of both renewable and storage technologies. The present paper tries to fill this research gap. We first propose to generalize the concept of Financial CfDs introduced in the literature to all assets, including storage and consumption assets, into what we define as Financial Twins: financial contracts that fully replicate physical asset’s profits. We then show that a hybrid market design with one Financial Twin per technology is optimal in a power economy: it allows to reach the first best welfare, risk allocation, and investment decisions. To do so, we develop a two-stage stochastic partial equilibrium model of a power system in which agents invest in the first stage in an uncertain environment before trading electricity in the spot market in the second stage. After formulating the model and deriving some useful properties of Financial Twins, we apply the model to the Spanish electricity market to quantify the combined impacts of various Financial Twins in a real-world situation. We also propose and successfully apply a methodology to rank their added value by computing their Shapley values. Our findings indicate that Financial Twins for generators and demand have a far higher value than those for storage. Since over-the-counter battery contracts can already hedge most of a project’s lifetime, policy makers should thus focus on ensuring adequate hedging for more critical technologies through well-designed Financial Twins. |
| Keywords: | Capacity Expansion, Risk Aversion, Risk Trading, Complete or Incomplete Risk Market, Coherent Risk Measure, Financial Twins |
| JEL: | D81 C72 C73 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2582 |
| By: | Knapp, Nadine |
| Abstract: | Mit dem fortschreitenden Klimawandel wird die geplante Umsiedlung ganzer Gemeinschaften aus Risikogebieten zunehmend unvermeidlich. Sie ist schon heute weltweit Realität und wird als Maßnahme der Klimaanpassung und Katastrophenvorsorge künftig häufiger notwendig sein. Umsiedlungen können Leben retten und Vertreibungsrisiken verringern. Gleichwohl gelten sie als "letztes Mittel", da sie kostspielig sind, tief in Lebensgrundlagen, soziale Netzwerke und kulturelle Identitäten eingreifen und neue Risiken bergen. Damit sie wirksam sind, müssen sie partizipativ und menschenrechtskonform gestaltet und durch entwicklungsorientierte Maßnahmen flankiert werden, die das Wohlergehen und die Widerstandsfähigkeit der Betroffenen stärken und strukturelle Ungleichheiten verringern. Vielerorts fehlen hierfür politischer Wille, konkrete Strategien und Ressourcen - besonders in einkommensschwachen Staaten mit ohnehin geringen Anpassungskapazitäten. Diese sind daher stark auf internationale Unterstützung angewiesen, die bislang meist fragmentiert, ad hoc und unkoordiniert erfolgt. Je länger adäquate Strukturen fehlen, desto größer die Gefahr, dass menschliche Sicherheit massiv beeinträchtigt, grundlegende Menschenrechte verletzt und ganze Communities (erneut) vertrieben werden - mit Risiken für regionale Stabilität und globale Sicherheit. Die Bundesregierung sollte gezielt Lücken im internationalen System adressieren, den Zugang zu Wissen und Ressourcen erleichtern und sektorübergreifendes Lernen stärken. Das bisherige deutsche Engagement in Fidschi sollte mittelfristig auf weitere klimavulnerable Regionen und Ländern ausgeweitet werden - mit Fokus auf gemeinschaftsgetragene Umsiedlungsprojekte. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:334468 |
| By: | Victor Hernandez Martinez; Nicholas Kozeniauskas; Roman Merga |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of trade liberalization on the full wage distribution, exploiting Spain's 1993 entry into the European Single Market. Using employer-employee data, we identify the causal effects of trade across the entire wage distribution, using a novel shift-share instrument embedded in an unconditional quantile regression. We find that the liberalization reduced wage inequality, leading to wage compression through earnings gains at the bottom of the distribution and wage losses at the top. We trace this compression to two asymmetric channels: import competition disproportionately harmed high earners, while export opportunities benefited low earners. The key mechanism is an import-driven “skill-downgrading.” A multi-region multi-sector model shows that the key insight for understanding these empirical results is that trade's distributional effects depend on the skill intensity of a country's tradable sector, and Spain's was relatively low-skill intensive back then. |
| Keywords: | trade liberalization; inequality; ESM |
| JEL: | F15 F16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:102314 |
| By: | Perrin, Richard; Miranda De Souza Almeida, Felipe; Fulginiti, Lilyan; Dennis, Elliott |
| Abstract: | This research uses two life-cycle emissions models, GREET and IFSM, to establish benchmark values of the carbon intensity (CI) of corn and soybeans currently produced under producer conditions in three Northern Plains sub-regions. The benchmarks range from 0.24 to 0.42 lbs CO2e per lb of grain dry matter. CI benchmarks for rainfed crops are 8-18% higher than those estimated for comparable irrigated crops. The benchmark values are intended to be similar to results that a producer would likely obtain from employing either the GREET or the IFSM model for their own crops, when similarly adjusted to county-level circumstances. Effects of switching from conventional to reduced tillage are not yet well established, but as estimated by the current GREET model would reduce corn CI by as much as 19%, more for soybean CI. Switching from conventional tillage to no-till with a cover crop would reduce corn CI by around 90% for irrigated corn and well over 100% for rainfed corn. Comparable switching for soybeans would result in CI reductions of about 120% under irrigation and 150% for rainfed production. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360748 |
| By: | Srigiri, Srinivasa Reddy; Buliva, Morris |
| Abstract: | Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a critical threat to global health, with environmental transmission pathways - pharmaceutical waste, wastewater effluents, agricultural runoff - increasingly recognised as significant yet inadequately governed. Despite international calls for One Health approaches integrating human, animal and environmental sectors, coordination across these domains remains weak, particularly for environmental dimensions. This paper examines why environmental integration lags in Kenya's AMR governance, despite sophisticated formal architecture that includes national and county coordination platforms (NASIC, CASICs), technical working groups and the One Health AMR Surveillance System (OHAMRS). We investigate two research questions: (i) What are the enablers and barriers to effective governance of interlinkages among human health, animal health and environmental sectors in mitigating AMR? (ii) What are the options for effectively integrating the environmental dimension into AMR governance? Drawing on polycentric governance theory, the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework and the concept of Networks of Adjacent Action Situations (NAAS), we analyse how authority, information and resources shape interactions among overlapping decision centres across constitutional, collective-choice and operational levels. Through 12 semi-structured interviews with government officials, fisheries officers and environmental regulators, supplemented by policy document analysis, we map six action situations spanning planning, resource allocation, surveillance, stewardship, wastewater treatment and regulation. Findings reveal that constitutional-choice rules create formal overlaps intended to foster coordination, yet systematic asymmetries in authority, information and resources perpetuate the marginalisation of environmental issues. Boundary and position rules concentrate agenda setting in health sectors; information rules exclude AMR parameters from environmental permits and inspections; payoff rules reward clinical outputs while environmental investments compete with higher priorities; and scope rules omit environmental accountability targets. These rule configurations attenuate feedback loops between environmental action situations and upstream planning, maintaining system stability but at sub-optimal performance for One Health objectives. We identify rule-focused interventions - mandating environmental representation with voting authority, embedding AMR parameters in regulatory instruments, institutionalising joint inspection protocols, ring-fencing environmental budgets, and establishing explicit environmental targets - that would realign coordination toward genuine environmental integration. |
| Keywords: | One Health, Antimicrobial Resistance, Polycentric Governance, Coordination, Environmental Health, Action situations, Institutions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:334472 |
| By: | Khorunzhina, Natalia (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Wedewer, Jesse (Duke University); Wu, Runling (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | Measures of intergenerational mobility primarily focus on earnings and often overlook substantial heterogeneity in job amenities. We propose a novel measure of intergenera-tional welfare mobility, “value-value” slope, including both pecuniary and non-pecuniary value of a job. We apply a revealed preference approach to construct common rankings of jobs based on worker flows. Using Danish administrative data, we document that there is 31% more intergenerational mobility than earnings-based mobility measures alone would suggest: the value-value slope is 0.105 and the wage-premia slope is 0.151. Importantly, this aggregate pattern masks striking gender differences: comparing within each gender, daughters exhibit 38% greater mobility in total welfare than in wages; for sons, the two measures nearly align. Gender differences trace to how family background shapes educa-tional and occupational paths. Daughters pursue academic tracks and enter white-collar jobs with similar amenities at high rates regardless of background. Sons’ paths are more stratified: those from disadvantaged families disproportionately follow vocational routes into blue-collar work, where both wages and amenities differ sharply from the professional jobs that advantaged sons obtain. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational mobility; earnings inequality; amenities |
| JEL: | D31 J30 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–12–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_001 |
| By: | Esther Arenas-Arroyo (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the home sewing machine on women’s work and intergenerational mobility—an innovation that enabled women to generate income from within the household. Marketed directly to women as a tool for both domestic use and paid work, it provides a unique setting to examine how household technologies reshaped labor markets and intergenerational outcomes. Exploiting the expansion of sewing machine sales agents, which generated geographic and temporal variation in access, I show that access to sewing machines increased demand for dressmakers, raised women’s employment in this occupation, and reduced reliance on child labor. In the long run, children exposed in early life attained higher literacy, formed smaller families, and experienced greater intergenerational mobility. These findings highlight the household as a crucial site of technological change, showing how domestic innovations could expand women’s opportunities and generate lasting gains across generations. |
| Keywords: | women’s work, home production, child labor, children |
| JEL: | J16 N31 J22 J24 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp389 |
| By: | Lu, Hanjun; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Hively, Dean; Thieme, Alison; Jennewein, Jyoti |
| Abstract: | Maryland’s Cover Crop Program, administered by the Department of Agriculture (MDA), aims to enhance soil health and protect the Chesapeake Bay by encouraging farmer adoption of cover crops. This manuscript evaluates the effectiveness of its various financial incentive payments in increasing cover crop biomass. We analyzed MDA field-level payment data and remotely-sensed biomass estimates from 2017 to 2022. We used several statistical methods, including a Two-Way Fixed Effects model, an instrumental variable method, and advanced difference-in-differences models for cases with no stayers and continuous treatments. The results show that the program’s total payments do increase biomass. Payments for planting early have the strongest positive effect. Payments for terminating late also help increase biomass. Payments for specific crop species, for aerial seeding into corn, and for late planting had little to no positive effect, and sometimes had a negative effect. These results are consistent across the different methods we used. Our findings suggest that while the MDA program is working overall, it could be improved by focusing more on the most effective payments. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361072 |
| By: | Sillero Illanes Carmen (European Commission - JRC); Durth Melanie; González Raul; Castilla Barea Juan C.; Caro Gómez Esperanza |
| Abstract: | This report documents the findings of a review of the space ecosystem of Andalusia (Spain), carried out in 2025 within the framework of REGDUALOSA (Regions, Dual Use, Open Strategic Autonomy), an exploratory research initiative of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The review was developed in partnership with the Regional Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining and explores some of the policy pathways Andalusia might take to develop the space domain as a dual-use industry, thereby boosting regional competitiveness and contributing to European strategic autonomy. The analysis adapts the POINT methodology developed by the JRC, combining documentary research, expert interviews, and stakeholder consultations. The study positions Andalusia within a volatile global landscape in which competitiveness, security, defence, and preparedness have emerged as central priorities of the European Union. Recent geostrategic tensions and the imperative of enhancing European defence capabilities, as underscored in the White Paper on European Defence Readiness 2030 and the Readiness 2030 initiative, highlight the urgency of consolidating the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). Andalusia, home to Spain’s second-largest aerospace cluster, aspires to develop its space domain, while diversifying beyond its traditional reliance on aerostructures. The report advances seven lines of action: scaling up the industry through defence integration and international expansion; streamlining access to finance; reinforcing industrial competitiveness; strengthening multi-level governance; fostering demand-driven innovation; and addressing talent shortages. Furthermore, it incorporates preparedness as a driver of transformative innovation and explores its interlinkages with dual-use technologies, promoting policy experimentation to address responses to climate-related disasters and hybrid threats. The report thus provides a timely foundation for Andalusia’s forthcoming steps. The participation of the Regional Government of Andalusia in the Experimentation Journey on Territorial Preparedness, under the Preparatory Action Innovation for Place-Based Transformation led by the Joint Research Centre and financed by the European Parliament, constitutes a unique opportunity to translate the insights of this report into new initiatives in cooperation with other European territories. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143531 |
| By: | Miguel Ángel Santos (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Adan Silverio-Murillo (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar (Business School, Universidad Anahuac); Abel Rodríguez (Author-Workplace-Name: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | Objective: To examine the impact of El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy on crime. Methods: The identification strategy of this paper exploits the launch of the incarceration policy in El Salvador, which increased the country’s prison population by 150% in just one year, propelling it to the top of global incarceration rankings. The methodology consists of fixed-effects models. Data for homicides comes from the National Civil Police, while data for other crimes comes from El Salvador’s Multipurpose Household Survey. Results: El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy reduced homicides by 42%. Further, evidence suggests that the policy reduced street robberies by 20% and rapes by 62%, but had no measurable impact on assault, larceny, or motor vehicle theft. Conclusion: These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the selective effectiveness of punitive criminal justice strategies. The results suggest that the observed reduction in crime following the policy is primarily driven by incapacitation rather than deterrence. |
| Keywords: | Crime reduction, Public security policy, Policing, Mass incarceration, Homicide rates, Gang violence, Law enforcement, State capacity, El Salvador |
| JEL: | K42 H56 D74 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:20 |
| By: | Marie Sciaccitano (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nabila Arfaoui (ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - UCLy (Lyon Catholic University)); Olivier Brette (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nathalie Lazaric (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Michele Pezzoni (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | Entre 2000 et 2019, la production annuelle mondiale de déchets plastiques a plus que doublé, atteignant 353 millions de tonnes selon l'OCDE (2022). La destination de ces déchets montre la faible circularité de la chaîne de valeur des plastiques En effet, en 2019, seuls 9% des déchets plastiques ont été recyclés et 19% incinérés, tandis que 50% ont abouti dans des décharges contrôlées et 22% ont échappé aux systèmes de gestion formels des déchets. |
| Keywords: | dépendance au sentier, base de connaissances, innovations, brevets, eco, Economie circulaire, plastique |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05356166 |
| By: | Kory Kroft; Isaac Norwich; Matthew J. Notowidigdo; Stephen Tino |
| Abstract: | Many temporary foreign worker programs issue “closed” visas that effectively tie workers to a single employer, restricting worker mobility and weakening bargaining power. We study the labor market return to temporary foreign workers (TFWs) gaining permanent residency (PR), which loosens this mobility restriction. Using administrative data linking matched employer-employee data in Canada to temporary and permanent visa records from 2004–2014 along with an event-study design, we find that gaining PR leads to a sharp, immediate, and persistent increase in the job switching rate of 21.7 percentage points and an increase in earnings of 5.7 percent three years after PR. Workers also sort into high-wage firms after gaining PR, and the increase in the firm pay premium is roughly 56 percent of the total earnings gain. We find larger earnings gains for job switchers across industries, low-skilled workers, and workers from low-income countries. To guide and interpret our reduced-form results, we develop a search-and-matching model featuring heterogeneous workers and firms. Permanent residents and native-born workers search for jobs in the same labor market and engage in on-the-job search, while TFWs search separately within a segmented labor market and do not receive outside wage offers. We calibrate the model to match our reduced-form results, and we use it to simulate the long-run effects of PR and consider two counterfactual policies: (1) increasing the cost to firms of posting a TFW vacancy and (2) allowing TFWs to switch employers freely under “open” visas. We evaluate how these policies affect output, wages, profits, and overall social welfare. |
| JEL: | F22 J42 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34630 |
| By: | Feldman, Paul; Lee, Siun |
| Abstract: | Myopic loss aversion (MLA)—the tendency to "chase losses"—is a well-documented behavioral bias influencing investment decisions. However, whether groups amplify or mitigate this bias remains unclear. To investigate, we conducted an investment game where participants made decisions both individually and in groups under two conditions: "paper losses" (losses recorded prior to cash-out) and "realized losses" (Imas, 2016). Consistent with prior literature, we replicated the finding that individuals exhibit MLA. More importantly, our experimental evidence shows that group decision-making can intensify MLA rather than alleviate it. By analyzing group conversations with an LLMassisted approach, we identified key social mechanisms—rapid consensus formation, emotional contagion, and a shift toward risk-seeking behavior—that amplify these biases. These findings are significant because they reveal how group dynamics can undermine sound financial decision-making, emphasizing the need for financial literacy programs that address groupthink, shared biases, and emotional contagion and promote structured decision-making frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361193 |
| By: | Kramer, Berber; Porter, Maria; Wassie, Solomon Bizuayehu |
| Abstract: | Index insurance lowers agricultural risk but covers only covariate risks. Since farmers do not have complete insurance, they may develop mistrust of insurance when experiencing crop losses and not receiving payouts. Although recent innovations in remote sensing enable the provision of more complete insurance including coverage for idiosyncratic risks, such insurance introduces differences in payouts within social networks, which might be considered unfair, introduce jealousy, and depress insurance demand. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with farmers in Ethiopia to examine whether providing complete insurance coverage affects perceived fairness and insurance demand. We also examine effects of informing farmers about neighbors’ payout experiences. We find that such social comparison increases perceived fairness of index insurance. Providing complete crop insurance increases perceived fairness of outcomes and willingness to pay for insurance, without introducing jealousy over neighbors receiving different payouts. These results are concentrated among men and those with little insurance knowledge. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361093 |
| By: | Ludovic Goudenège (Université Paris-Saclay); Andrea Molent (Università degli Studi di Udine - University of Udine [Italie]); Antonino Zanette (MATHRISK - Mathematical Risk Handling - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - Centre Inria de Paris - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Total value adjustment (XVA) is the change in value to be added to the price of a derivative to account for the bilateral default risk and the funding costs. In this paper, we compute such a premium for American basket derivatives whose payoff depends on multiple underlyings. In particular, in our model, those underlyings are supposed to follow the multidimensional Black-Scholes stochastic model. In order to determine the XVA, we follow the approach introduced by (Burgard and Kjaer in SSRN Electronic J 7:1–19, 2010) and afterward applied by (Arregui et al. in Appl Math Comput 308:31–53, 2017), (Arregui et al. in Int J Comput Math 96:2157–2176, 2019) for the one-dimensional American derivatives. The evaluation of the XVA for basket derivatives is particularly challenging as the presence of several underlings leads to a high-dimensional control problem. We tackle such an obstacle by resorting to Gaussian Process Regression, a machine learning technique that allows one to address the curse of dimensionality effectively. Moreover, the use of numerical techniques, such as control variates, turns out to be a powerful tool to improve the accuracy of the proposed methods. The paper includes the results of several numerical experiments that confirm the goodness of the proposed methodologies. |
| Keywords: | Control variates, Basket option, Gaussian process regression, XVA, American options, Transaction costs, Greeks, Hedging |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05421581 |
| By: | Do, Ngoc Ha |
| Abstract: | Water is an essential but increasingly scarce resource, especially in the Western U.S., where climate change and institutional fragmentation make efficient water regulation challenging. Adjudication, a legal process to formalize and clarify water rights, has emerged as part of efforts to establish clearer and enforceable rights. Despite its potential economic and environmental benefits, empirical evidence of the impacts of water rights adjudication remain limited. In this paper, I examine the effects of irrigation water rights adjudication on agricultural land and rural home values in Idaho. Using a repeated sales sample and a newly compiled water rights dataset, I employ a hedonic pricing model to estimate capitalization effects of adjudicated appurtenant irrigation rights. The main findings how that adjudicated rights significantly increase land value. The treatment effect evaluated at the sample mean implies an increase in a parcel’s land value by $381 per acre. Moreover, adjudication effects are highly heterogeneous. Parcels with more senior or larger rights gain more from this process. In particular, downstream senior water users experience the largest benefits from adjudication. These findings suggest adjudication can enhance the market value of water but also introduce distributional concerns that should be carefully considered in the design of future water policies. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361196 |