|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Tomomi Miyazaki (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Haruo Kondoh (Faculty of Law, Keio University); Huanhuan Guo (School of Business, Sanda University); Naoto Tanemoto (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University/Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan) |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of fiscal policy on employment when short-term interest rates were stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in Japan. To do this, we consider both gender and regional differences. Our empirical results demonstrate that regardless of specification, government consumption benefited Southern Kanto and Kansai during the ZLB period. We also robustly show that it created jobs for female workers in these two metropolitan areas under the ZLB environment. These results suggest that since employers expect employment recovery by virtue of fiscal expansion as a temporal phenomenon, they increase female employees, most of whom are part-time workers. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2524 |
| By: | Tervala, Juha; Puonti, Päivi |
| Abstract: | Abstract Finland’s public finances are chronically in deficit, and the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to rise. The current government has already implemented substantial consolidation measures, and future governments will need to continue them. Research literature shows that fiscal consolidation weakens economic growth in the short term, but the magnitude of the effect depends crucially on the structure, timing, and composition of the measures. According to international evidence, public investment has large output effects, while the impacts of public consumption and transfers are smaller. The impact of taxation varies, but in high-tax countries such as Finland, it can be significant. In Finland’s case, euro area membership and a high tax burden amplify the negative short-term effects of consolidation, while demographic ageing partly mitigates them. The adverse effects can be reduced by emphasising expenditure-based adjustment, directing cuts to inefficient spending, protecting growth-supporting expenditures (such as education, R&D, and infrastructure), and pursuing gradual adjustment. Structural reforms that raise employment and wage policies that strengthen cost competitiveness further support the success of consolidation. The research provides strong evidence that the sustainability of public finances can be secured if well-designed fiscal adjustments, structural reforms, and wage policies that support competitiveness are implemented simultaneously. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal multiplier, Public debt, Finland |
| JEL: | E62 E63 H30 |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:170 |
| By: | Kemper, Nathan |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, Farm Management, Research Methods/Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343902 |
| By: | Andreas Nastansky (Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht (HWR) Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Die Vermögenspreise – insbesondere die von Aktien und Immobilien − sowie die Zinssätze und die Zinsstruktur stellen zentrale Determinanten der Gewinne der Kreditwirtschaft dar. In diesem Beitrag werden die Wechselwirkungen zwischen diesen Faktoren und deren Auswirkungen auf die Profitabilität im deutschen Bankensektor seit dem Jahr 1991 näher betrachtet. Ziel ist es, die Mechanismen und Zusammenhänge zwischen diesen Variablen aufzuzeigen und auf der Grundlage einer ökonometrischen Analyse Implikationen für die Banksteuerung, Aufsichtsbehörden und Geldpolitik abzuleiten. Mithilfe eines ARDL-Regressionsmodells konnten statistisch signifikante Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Jahresüberschüssen deutscher Kreditinstitute und einer Reihe makroökonomischer Faktoren wie dem Deutschen Aktienindex, der Sparquote und dem Zinsspread sowie branchenspezifischer Faktoren wie die regulatorischen Vorgaben im Rahmen des Basel III-Prozesses aufzeigt werden. Die Diskussion der empirischen Ergebnisse zeigt, dass die finanzielle Solidität von Banken ein entscheidender Indikator für die Wirksamkeit geldpolitischer Maßnahmen und die Stabilität des Finanzsystems darstellt. |
| Keywords: | ARDL-Modell, Banken, Finanzstabilität, Profitabilität, Vermögenspreise |
| JEL: | C22 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:statdp:60 |
| By: | Luis Méndez Lobos; Esteban Ramon Perez Caldentey |
| Abstract: | Since the Global Financial Crisis developing economies, including those of Latin America, increased their reliance on foreign currency borrowing, making greater use of the international bond market. The non-financial corporate sector became the second most important issuer of debt. Using a data base comprising approximately 295 listed firms for the larger Latin American economies for the period 2013-2023, the paper shows that bond issuing firms account for a larger share of total assets, revenue and investment expenditure relative to non-bond issuing firms. These findings are reproduced for nine sectors of economic activity (agriculture, construction, information, manufacturing, mining, retail trade, transportation, utilities, wholesale trade). In addition, bond issuing firms exhibit higher and increasing levels of profitability in most sectors. This favourable context for bond issuing firms and the decoupling in profitability has not led to increased investment expenditure. This is explained by overleveraging and prioritizing financial over investment in productive activities. |
| Keywords: | international bond market, bond/non-bond issuing firms, solvency, Minsky, non-linear threshold model. |
| JEL: | E32 G15 O10 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2525 |
| By: | Wich, Hannah |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343530 |
| By: | Stewart, Shamar L.; Isengildina Massa, Olga |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343936 |
| By: | Nikolaj Broberg; Tuuli Tähtinen; Thomas Walsh |
| Abstract: | Welfare benefit sanctions are a common tool in many social insurance systems. Using a regression discontinuity design based on close elections, we investigate how representatives’ political alignment influences the implementation of a new sanction regime in the UK. Our results show that constituencies aligned with the Conservative-led central government experience significantly fewer sanctions. The RD estimate indicates a drop of 0.8 percentage points, implying 18 % lower sanction rates in central government controlled constituencies. These findings demonstrate that partisan alignment can systematically shape the local implementation of a national, rule-based policies. |
| Keywords: | political alignment, close elections, policy implementation, fiscal consolidation, unemployment benefits |
| JEL: | P16 D72 D73 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12358 |
| By: | Frantisek Bartos (Department of Psychological Methods, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands); Martina Luskova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Ksenyia Bortnikova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Karolina Hozova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Klara Kantova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Zuzana Irsova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Tomas Havranek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Physical exercise is widely believed to enhance cognition, yet evidence from meta-analyses remains mixed. Here we compile a study-level dataset of 2, 239 effect-size estimates from 215 meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials examining the effect of exercise on general cognition, memory, and executive functions. We find strong evidence of selective reporting and large between-study heterogeneity. Analyses adjusted for publication bias reveal average effects much smaller than commonly reported (general cognition: standardized mean difference, SMD, = 0.227, 95% credible interval 0.116 to 0.330; memory: SMD = 0.027, 95% credible interval 0.000 to 0.227; executive functions: SMD = 0.012, 95% credible interval 0.000 to 0.147), along with wide prediction intervals spanning both negative and positive effects. Subgroup analyses identify specific population-intervention combinations with more consistent benefits. Overall, broad claims of generalized cognitive enhancement resulting from physical exercise appear premature; the evidence supports targeted, population- and intervention-specific recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Publication bias, Bayesian, Brain health, Evidence, Policy |
| JEL: | I12 I10 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_31 |
| By: | Rouhi Rad, Mani; Medina, Nataly |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343866 |
| By: | Pérez Pérez, Jorge; Nuño-Ledesma, José; Meléndez, Jorge |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343593 |
| By: | Changsu Ko (Inha University); Hwanoong Lee (Konkuk University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal effect of increased elderly welfare expenditure in South Korea on the suicide rate among older adults, using predicted expenditure changes induced by the Basic Pension reform as an instrumental variable. Our findings show that higher welfare spending explains 74.5% of the decline in the suicide rate among individuals aged 65+ between 2013 and 2019, with especially large reductions among men aged 80+. Household-level evidence indicates that while total income remained stable, consumption increased following the reform, particularly in transportation and leisure. We further show that the reform reduced unmet medical needs and stress and increased participation in community and leisure activities, while leaving depressive symptoms unchanged. Overall, the results indicate that stronger public income transfer programs reduce income uncertainty, enhance consumption and leisure activities, and play a crucial role in mitigating elderly suicide rates. |
| Keywords: | Welfare Expenditure, Basic Pension, Suicide Rates, Elderly Population, Public Income Transfer |
| JEL: | H31 H51 I14 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inh:wpaper:2025-2 |
| By: | Capps, Oral; Wang, Lingxiao |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343575 |
| By: | Flintz, Joschka |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of away fan attendance in Germany's top three football divisions over six seasons and assesses its impact on match outcomes. The analysis reveals that, after conditioning on home and away teams, distance and kick-off time are the most important predictors of away fan turnout. Moreover, away support is found to have a statistically significant positive effect on team performance: an additional 1, 000 away fans is associated with a 4.6% to 7.5% increase in the probability of the away team winning or drawing the match. These findings suggest that league organizers should consider fan logistics and the potential influence of away fan presence when scheduling fixtures, in order to maintain sporting equity. At the club level, the results underscore the value of fostering fan engagement and indicate that strategies aimed at increasing away attendance may contribute to improved sporting outcomes. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht die Determinanten der Auswärtsfanbeteiligung in den drei höchsten deutschen Fußballligen über sechs Spielzeiten hinweg und bewertet deren Auswirkungen auf die Spielergebnisse. Die Analyse zeigt, dass nach Berücksichtigung der Heim- und Auswärtsmannschaften die Entfernung und die Anstoßzeit die wichtigsten Prädiktoren für die Auswärtsfanbeteiligung sind. Darüber hinaus hat die Unterstützung der Auswärtsfans einen statistisch signifikanten positiven Einfluss auf die Leistung der Mannschaft: 1.000 zusätzliche Auswärtsfans erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Auswärtsmannschaft das Spiel gewinnt oder unentschieden spielt, um 4, 6 % bis 7, 5 %. Diese Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Liga-Organisatoren bei der Spielplanerstellung die Logistik für die Fans und den potenziellen Einfluss der Anwesenheit von Auswärtsfans berücksichtigen sollten, um die sportliche Fairness zu wahren. Auf Vereinsebene unterstreichen die Ergebnisse den Wert der Förderung des Fanengagements und deuten darauf hin, dass Strategien zur Steigerung der Auswärtsbesucherzahlen zu besseren sportlichen Ergebnissen beitragen können. |
| Keywords: | Sport economics, Away fan attendance, Team performance, Spatio-temporal analysis |
| JEL: | C23 Z20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:333895 |
| By: | Moinul Islam (Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology); Noriaki Hagimoto (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Raja R. Timilsina (Asian Development Bank Institute); Koji Kotani (Research Institute for Future Design, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2025-10 |
| By: | Sanny B. D. Afable (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Megan Evans (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Yana C. Vierboom (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Kaarina Korhonen; Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Júlia Mikolai (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Hill Kulu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Health is a driver of residential mobility in later life. The literature, however, overlooks how health decline influences the residential moves of not just the older adult but also their family members, who are potential sources of informal care. This study examines whether parental health decline is associated with parents and their adult children moving closer to each other, and whether and how this association varies by parental sociodemographic characteristics. We study Finland, one of the most rapidly ageing countries in Europe. Using a random sample of Finnish parents aged 50-83 (N = 3, 689, 953) drawn from linked administrative registers, we examine the relationship between hospital admissions and subsequent residential moves. Results show that a quarter of residential moves experienced by older parents are proximity-enhancing, and around 60% of these moves are done by adult children. However, we find that it is the parents—rather than the children—who engage in proximity-enhancing moves following hospitalisation, highlighting the dual challenges of worsening health and residential relocation in later life. The association between hospitalisation and co-residence with a child is especially pronounced for older, lower-educated, and spouseless parents, while younger and non-homeowning parents are more likely to move closer to a child following hospitalisation. |
| Keywords: | Finland, ageing, health, population registers, residential mobility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-037 |
| By: | Paul Hufe; Daniel Weishaar |
| Abstract: | The measurement of preferences often relies on surveys in which individuals evaluate hypothetical scenarios. This paper proposes and validates a novel factorial survey tool to measure fairness preferences. We examine whether a non-incentivized survey captures the same distributional preferences as an impartial spectator design, where choices may apply to a real person. In contrast to prior studies, our design involves high stakes, with respondents determining a real person’s monthly earnings, ranging from $500 to $5, 700. We find that the non-incentivized survey module yields nearly identical results compared to the incentivized experiment and recovers fairness preferences that are stable over time. Furthermore, we show that most respondents adopt intermediate fairness positions, with fewer exhibiting strictly egalitarian or libertarian preferences. In sum, these findings suggest that high-stake incentives do not significantly impact the measurement of fairness preferences and that non-incentivized survey questions covering realistic scenarios offer valuable insights into the nature of these preferences. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/810 |
| By: | Heeb, Florian; Kölbel, Julian; Weder, Camilla |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys beliefs about the climate impact of green investing among academic experts and retail investors. Using the views of academic experts as a benchmark, we show that retail investors have overly optimistic climate impact beliefs. While most academic experts do not believe that a typical green fund has a meaningful climate impact, the vast majority of retail investors do. The median retail investor expects a e10, 000 green investment to offset 10% of an average person's carbon footprint. By contrast, the median estimate among academic experts is 2%, with 0% being the most common estimate. Impact beliefs influence investment decisions: When informed of academic experts' views, retail investors reduce their climate impact beliefs and willingness to pay for the green fund. Qualitative statements suggest that retail investors' optimistic beliefs are driven by a neglect of financial-market transmission mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | green finance, subjective beliefs, climate change, willingness to pay, expert survey, behavioral finance |
| JEL: | D14 G11 G41 H41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:333926 |
| By: | Javier Ferri; Francisca Herranz-Báez |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of carbon pricing policies targeting both residential and non-residential sectors. Using a model that incorporates nominal price rigidities, sectoral labor adjustment, and financial frictions tied to housing collateral, we uncover critical transmission mechanisms affecting household welfare.Our analysis highlights the distinct effects on borrowers and lenders: carbon pricing in the non-residential sector reduces labor demand and wages, disproportionately impacting borrowers, while residential carbon pricing lowers housing prices, tightening credit constraints for borrowers but imposing higher welfare costs on lenders who own more housing assets. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2025-14 |
| By: | Cheng, Yang; Hu, Lianyi |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Labor and Human Capital, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343645 |
| By: | Julia Baarck (LMU Munich); Moritz Bode (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Andreas Peichl (LMU Munich) |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational Mobility, Social Mobility, Income, Education, Inequality. |
| JEL: | J62 I24 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2515 |
| By: | Wieland, Volker; Hegemann, Hendrik |
| Abstract: | The euro area experienced an unprecedented surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022 followed by a decline in 2023 and 2024. The ECB raised policy rates too late. Simple rules would have prescribed an earlier response. The policy easing since summer 2024, however, is quite in line with such rules. This experience provides a number of lessons that could lead to improvements in the policy strategy that is currently under review. The current level of policy rates appears appropriate. However, there are some important upside risks to inflation. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 20 March 2025. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:333884 |
| By: | Ruijun Hou; Samuel Baker; Stephanie von Hinke; Hans H. Sievertsen; Emil Sorensen; Nicolai Vitt |
| Abstract: | We study the long-term health and human capital impacts of local economic conditions experienced during the first 1, 000 days of life. We combine historical data on monthly unemployment rates in urban England and Wales from 1952 to 1967 with data from the UK Biobank on later-life outcomes. Leveraging variation in unemployment driven by national industry-specific shocks weighted by industry’s importance in each area, we find no evidence that small, common fluctuations in local economic conditions during the early life period affect health or human capital in older age. |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:25/814 |
| By: | Pike, Susie |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewed academic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (or other measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt10m052z2 |
| By: | Zoltan Elekes; Emelie Hane-Weijman |
| Abstract: | Labour mobility plays a central role in shaping local economies. Substantial contributions have been made in the Evolutionary Economic Geography (EEG) literature to understand the dynamics and geographies of local economies. A key contribution of EEG research has been the emphasis on both the supply of work and the demand for workers, raising questions about skill matching. Building on this tradition, the aim of this chapter is twofold. First, we aim to summarize the contributions on labour mobilities and skill relatedness made by EEG. Second, we argue that the micro perspective in EEG could be enriched by focusing more on the heterogeneity of workers with respect to, for instance, gender, age or ethnicity. We then outline a future research agenda within EEG that is more attentive to the diversity of workers by exploring (1) the assortativity of skill relatedness networks, (2) the bounded mobilities of workers and (3) dimensions of proximity beyond the cognitive. |
| Keywords: | labour mobility, skill relatedness, local labour markets, spatial division of labour, skill mismatch, worker heterogeneity |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2541 |
| By: | Wenxin Du; Ritt Keerati; Jesse Schreger |
| Abstract: | We document a strong decoupling between the convenience yield on the US Dollar and US Treasuries. We measure the convenience of the U.S. dollar using covered interest parity (CIP) deviations between risk-free bank rates, such as secured overnight rates since the benchmark reform. In parallel, we measure the convenience of U.S. Treasury bonds through CIP deviations between government bond yields. We find a pronounced divergence between the two convenience measures in recent years: while the U.S. dollar exhibits strong convenience post-Global Financial Crisis, the U.S. Treasury convenience has not only declined substantially but has turned negative, most strongly so at medium- to long-term maturities. We argue that the relative supply of government bonds between the US and other developed markets is a key driver of the U.S. Treasury convenience compared to other government bonds. Finally, we present a simple framework with a constrained global financial intermediary to link dollar and Treasury convenience. |
| Keywords: | Safe assets; Covered interest parity; Benchmark reform |
| JEL: | F30 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1427 |
| By: | Garayev, Vener |
| Abstract: | This study examines paradigmatic changes, thematic developments and authorship patterns in public administration research by analyzing 4, 317 articles published in Public Administration Review, Public Management Review, and Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory between 2000 and 2024. Using natural language processing (NLP) techniques through Python software to analyze content of titles, abstracts, and metadata, the article identifies key thematic clusters and paradigmatic shifts across the period, shaped by global events, contextual challenges, and technological advancements. The findings reveal a transition from bureaucratic efficiency to participatory governance, from reform to resilience, and from administrative theory to data-driven governance. Additionally, analysis of authorship patterns reveals increasing collaboration and concentration of scholarly output among top prolific contributors. This study contributes to a growing body of literature on bibliometric and content analytical studies in public administration, offering a comprehensive, data-driven perspective on the field’s intellectual evolution over the past quarter-century. |
| Date: | 2025–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nbw2u_v1 |
| By: | Luria, Michal; Bhatia, Aliya |
| Abstract: | This report examines the gap between child safety policy proposals for social media and how teens and parents — the people these policies are meant to protect — experience and view them. While the topic of child safety online is becoming increasingly prominent, with governments worldwide introducing proposals that aim to keep children safe online, many interventions remain largely untested and raise concerns about effectiveness, privacy, and unintended consequences. To address this disconnect, we conducted qualitative research with 45 parents and teens using a human-centered design approach to evaluate perceptions of four widely proposed intervention categories: age verification, screen-time features, algorithmic feed controls, and parental access. |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:34evz_v1 |
| By: | Francois R. Velde |
| Abstract: | Queen Anne’s Bounty was a corporation created in 1704 to redistribute income within the Anglican clergy. Structurally a saver needing a liquid asset, the corporation pursued a conservative strategy of investing in the dominant form of government debt, adapting as the market changed. It was involved in the South Sea Bubble but only made losses and steered clear from corporate equity and bonds thereafter. |
| Keywords: | investors; Bubble; Public debt |
| JEL: | N23 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:102249 |
| By: | Jonathan Thebault; Meltem Chadwick |
| Abstract: | This study shows that Paris-aligned indices (PAB) have similar return and volatility to conventional indices for both equities and bonds. Thus, from an investor’s perspective, Paris aligned investments do not necessarily add volatility despite reduced diversification, and they may offer investors, including institutionals, an opportunity to green their portfolios without taking on additional risk. <p> Cette étude montre que les indices alignés sur l’Accord de Paris (Paris-aligned benchmarks, PAB) ont des rendements et une volatilité comparables à ceux des indices classiques pour les actions comme pour les obligations. Ainsi, du point de vue de l’investisseur, les investissements alignés sur l’Accord de Paris n’accroissent pas nécessairement la volatilité, malgré une diversification réduite, et ils peuvent offrir une possibilité de verdir les portefeuilles sans prendre de risque supplémentaire, y compris pour les investisseurs institutionnels. |
| Date: | 2025–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:422 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) is confronting a challenging macroeconomic environment marked by unfavorable demographic trends, an energy crisis, and delays in the energy transition. As a result, GDP growth forecasts have been revised downward, and an additional balance of payments gap is projected. Against this backdrop, the authorities are requesting a 12-month extension of the 40-month ECF arrangement approved in December 2024, along with an augmentation of SDR 4.44 million (30 percent of quota), bringing total access to 155 percent of quota, combined with a more gradual and less front-loaded path for fiscal adjustment, on the heels of the large cumulative fiscal consolidation since 2022. |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/347 |
| By: | Stefano Carattini; Wade Davis; Béla Figge; Anton Heimerdinger |
| Abstract: | Rooftop solar photovoltaic mandates are becoming a popular policy across Europe and the United States. In this paper, we leverage the frontrunner experience of California to examine their economics. First, we evaluate the private payoffs of solar adoption for residential new construction. To do so, we assemble a rich dataset of new construction building projects and parameterize an engineering model to provide estimates of private payoffs across our sample. Second, we evaluate the hypothesis of what we call a "solar gap'' by comparing the cost-effectiveness estimates from the engineering model to observed builder decisions. We find substantial variation in the cost-effectiveness of solar across building locations and characteristics, though the estimated private payoffs are generally positive across a robust variety of model parameterizations and financial assumptions. We observe that the majority of buildings in our data do not adopt solar despite engineering estimates suggesting opportunities for positive payoffs. Relatedly, we find that payoffs explain little of the variation in solar adoption decisions. Lastly, we estimate the effectiveness of both San Francisco's citywide solar mandate and California's statewide mandate. Across a variety of empirical approaches, we find that both the citywide and statewide mandates increased solar adoption. However, new construction solar adoption remains below 100 percent. We discuss compliance accordingly. |
| Keywords: | solar photovoltaic, building codes, regulation, engineering models |
| JEL: | H70 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12359 |
| By: | Shurojit Chatterji (Singapore Management University); Atsushi Kajii (Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | In a T-period model with perfect foresight and no uncertainty, markets are complete with short-term bonds. The no-arbitrage principle renders any additional asset redundant, with no implications for allocation. Relaxing the perfect foresight assumption, we consider a reasonable version of temporary equilibria that accommodates sensible forecasts while maintaining no-arbitrage. With only short-term bonds, even allowing for forecasting errors, only a T-dimensional subset of efficient allocations can arise as Walrasian equilibria. However, if long-term bonds are traded in addition, essentially all efficient allocations can be achieved as equilibria, whereas forecasting errors may be arbitrarily small. We argue that minute errors in price forecasts can generate any feasible wealth transfer within the model, and that the beneficiaries of such transfers are determined by chance, not by superior forecasting ability. |
| Keywords: | General equilibrium, Efficient temporary equilibrium, Endogenous price forecasts, Redundant Assets |
| JEL: | D51 D53 D6 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:303 |
| By: | Dipankar Das |
| Abstract: | Traditional auction theory posits that bid value exhibits a positive correlation with the probability of securing the auctioned object in ascending auctions. However, under uncertainty and incomplete information, as is characteristic in real-time advertising markets, truthful bidding may not always represent a dominant strategy or yield a Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium. Real-Time Bidding (RTB) platforms operationalize impression-level auctions via programmatic interfaces, where advertisers compete in first-price auction settings and often resort to bid shading, i.e., strategically submitting bids below their private valuations to optimize payoff. This paper empirically investigates bid shading behaviors and strategic adaptation using large-scale RTB auction data from the Yahoo Webscope dataset. Integrating Minority Game Theory with clustering algorithms and variance-scaling diagnostics, we analyze equilibrium bidding behavior across temporally segmented impression markets. Our results reveal the emergence of minority-based bidding strategies, wherein agents partition hourly ad slots into submarkets and place bids strategically where they anticipate being in the numerical minority. This strategic heterogeneity facilitates reduced expenditure while enhancing win probability, functioning as an endogenous bid shading mechanism. The analysis highlights the computational and economic implications of minority strategies in shaping bidder dynamics and pricing outcomes in decentralized, high-frequency auction environments. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.15717 |
| By: | Juan C. Chaparro; Nataly Corredor-Martinez; Eleonora Dávalos; Leonardo Fabio Morales |
| Abstract: | The advent of digital technology and widespread internet access has transformed how firms advertise job vacancies and how job seekers conduct their searches. This paper presents a novel methodology for identifying job-related skills and knowledge from the textual descriptions of online job postings, using data from Colombia’s largest public online job board and the O*NET database. By analyzing posted wages and applying a data-driven approach to identify skill requirements, the study estimates the wage returns associated with specific skills and knowledges in the formal Colombian labor market. The findings indicate that, within a given occupation, the prevalence of certain basic skill categories such as mathematics, writing, time management, and instructing is associated with higher wage returns. Notably, most of the skill categories with significant positive returns are not occupation-specific; rather, they represent transferable capabilities that enhance performance across a wide range of tasks and occupations. *****RESUMEN: El auge de la tecnología digital y el acceso generalizado a internet ha transformado la forma en que las empresas anuncian vacantes laborales y cómo los buscadores de empleo realizan sus búsquedas. Este artículo presenta una metodología para identificar habilidades y conocimientos relacionados con el trabajo a partir de las descripciones textuales de ofertas de empleo en línea, utilizando datos del mayor portal público de empleo en línea de Colombia y la base de datos O*NET. Al analizar los salarios publicados y aplicar un enfoque basado en datos para identificar los requisitos de habilidades, el estudio estima los retornos salariales asociados con habilidades y conocimientos específicos en el mercado laboral formal colombiano. Los hallazgos indican que, dentro de una ocupación determinada, la prevalencia de ciertas categorías de habilidades básicas como matemáticas, redacción, gestión del tiempo e instrucción está asociada con mayores retornos salariales. Cabe destacar que la mayoría de las categorías de habilidades con retornos positivos significativos no son específicas de una ocupación; más bien, representan capacidades transferibles que mejoran el desempeño en una amplia gama de tareas y ocupaciones. |
| Keywords: | Online job portals, Vacancies, Occupational skill requirements, Wage disparities, Labor markets in developing countries, Portales de empleo en línea, Vacantes, Requisitos de habilidades ocupacionales, Disparidades salariales, Mercados laborales en países en desarrollo |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 J63 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1337 |
| By: | Luca Barzanti (University of Bologna); Martina Nardon (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | Forecasting expected gifts is a key task in Fundraising Management. In this study, we propose modeling a gift as an individual risk that can be analyzed from multiple perspectives: the occurrence, frequency, and timing of donations, as well as their monetary amounts. We focus specifically on modeling the number of donations as a Poisson random variable whose intensity parameter depends on individual donor characteristics. By introducing a Gamma-distributed heterogeneity factor, a Negative Binomial model arises as a natural extension of the starting framework. This approach enables the estimation of both the expected number of donations and the probability of a gift through Negative Binomial regression. We illustrate the methodology with an empirical application. |
| Keywords: | Fundraising Management; Expected Gift; Poisson Regression; Negative Binomial Regression |
| JEL: | D64 C63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:28 |
| By: | Zaman, Azaz; Miao, Ruiqing |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:344069 |
| By: | Julian Keutz (Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI)); Jan Hendrik Kopp (Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | The European Unions pursuit of climate neutrality necessitates a robust and secure energy system that will likely become reliant on imported green hydrogen. However, this dependency introduces inherent risks related to import disruptions and the weather-driven production variability of green hydrogen. This paper develops a comprehensive modeling approach to address these risks in a decarbonized European energy system. We use stochastic optimization to account for weather-induced variability, while applying dedicated mitigation strategies to analyze the cost and implications of hedging against import disruptions. We model hydrogen imports via long-term contracts, with prices and delivery profiles determined based on a stochastic calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen supply. This approach informs the stochastic modeling of the European energy system using the HYEBRID model, which accounts for weather variability across domestic and exporting regions. Our analysis reveals that the stochastic extension of HYEBRID reduces system costs by one-third compared to a deterministic solution that assumes average weather conditions. We also identify the need for a substantial expansion of hydrogen storage capacity, considerably exceeding previous estimates, to manage fluctuations in both domestic and imported supply. A pure cost minimization of imports results in significant market concentration, with only three exporters being contracted. By evaluating strategies to mitigate import disruption risk, we find that diversification and import reduction strategies incur higher costs in the investment stage, which can be economically justified if the perceived risk of exporter disruption is sufficiently high. |
| Keywords: | Energy System Modeling; Hydrogen Infrastructure; Stochastic Optimization; Weather Variability; Hydrogen Import Risks |
| JEL: | C61 F52 Q27 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:021921 |
| By: | Filippo Bontadini; Valentina Meliciani; Maria Savona; Ariel Wirkierman |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to quantitatively assess the propagation of supply shocks across European regions, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and diffused through Global Value Chains (GVCs). By taking advantage of the cross-country variation in policy responses to the pandemic, as well as the heterogeneity in regional productive structures, we document how downstream transmission of shocks via GVC-induced backward linkages yields differences in terms of regional resilience. By combining and adapting datasets at the NUTS2 level, classifying EU regions according to the risk of falling into a development trap, and embedding inter-regional, inter-industry indicators in a regression model estimated with a local projection method, we show that regional responses of real value added to foreign (i.e., inter-country) and domestic (i.e., intra-country yet inter- and intra-regional) shocks are far from homogeneous. The nuanced picture emerging from our findings warns against withdrawing from GVCs as an attempt to insulate from foreign shocks, as this might hamper the very forces that allow dynamic regions to withstand them. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, inter-regional connectivity, regional economic resilience, COVID-19 pandemic supply shocks, regional development trap risk |
| JEL: | C32 C67 F62 R11 R15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12316 |
| By: | Alessio Carrozzo Magli; Giovanni Righetto; Antonio Schiavone |
| Abstract: | Organised crime groups often deliver electoral support to politicians, yet how they are rewarded remains unclear. Using data from Sicilian municipalities (1992–2022), we show that narrowly won races by Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi’s party, coincide with sharp declines in the reallocation of confiscated mafia assets—but only in mafia-controlled areas. Exploiting historical variation in the mafia’s vote-buying capacity, we find that municipalities with stronger historical ties experience larger post-election declines, exclusively under Berlusconi’s governments. Instrumenting modern support with this proxy further reinforces the plausibly causal evidence that national authorities reward organised crime through policy inaction. |
| Keywords: | organised crime, mafia, vote buying, corruption, misallocation of confiscated assets, political economy |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H11 K42 P16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12330 |