nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2025–12–15
thirty-one papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Università degli Studi di Teramo


  1. Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment By Chao Gu; Janet Hua Jiang; Liang Wang
  2. Easing Financial Constraints Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from a Large Sample of French Companies By Guerini, Mattia; Marin, Giovanni; Vona, Francesco
  3. Easing Financial Constraints Reduce Carbon Emissions? Evidence from a Large Sample of French Companies By Mattia Guerini; Giovanni Marin; Francesco Vona
  4. Discerning energy and feed price effects on diary product prices in Poland By Klepacka, Anna M.; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Neupane, Sulakshan
  5. The Impact of USDA Disaster Designations on Farmland Values in the US By Jayasekera, Deshamithra H W; Melkani, Aakanksha; Mieno, Taro
  6. Mitigating the impact of extreme temperatures: the role of public health interventions in Germany, 1888-1913 By Carlos Álvarez-Nogal
  7. Limit Theorems for Network Data without Metric Structure By Wen Jiang; Yachen Wang; Zeqi Wu; Xingbai Xu
  8. Linking Risk Preferences, Women’s Empowerment, Farm Investment and Household Well-being Outcomes By Olumide, Samuel O.; Timu, Anne G.; Gustafson, Christopher R.
  9. Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response? By Gong, Ziqian; Baker, Justin S.; Wade, Christopher M.; Havlík, Petr
  10. All Eyes on the Nerd? The Unequal Distribution of Teachers’ Attention By Sofoklis Goulas; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Tommaso Sartori
  11. A Cross-sector Micromobility Research Roadmap By Sanguinetti, Angela PhD; Fitch, Dillon PhD; Ferguson, Beth PhD; D'Agostino, Mollie
  12. Syrian Refugees and Gender Inequalities Within Households: Evidence from Turkey By Nur Bilge; Simone Moriconi
  13. Evidence on the effectiveness-acceptance trade-off between forced active choice and default nudging - A field study to reduce meat consumption in cafeterias By Lemken, Dominic; Simonetti, Aline; Heinke, Gloria; Estevez, Ana
  14. Evolutionarily stable strategy in asymmetric games: Dynamical and information-theoretical perspectives By Vikash Kumar Dubey; Suman Chakraborty; Arunava Patra; Sagar Chakraborty
  15. Interaction of Economic Freedom and Foreign Direct Investment Globally: Special Cases from Neglected Regions By Yhlas Sovbetov; Mohamed Moussa
  16. Regaining U.S. Nuclear Energy Dominance By Brennan, Dominic
  17. Revisiting the Price Elasticity of Charitable Giving: Meta-Analysis of Tax Incentives and Matching Donations By Gwen-Jiro Clochard; Shubham Dey; Shusaku Sasaki; Taisuke Imai
  18. Partial basic income has positive and no heterogenous effects on mental health – An analysis of the Finnish basic income randomized experiment among people in unemployment By Aapo Hiilamo; Moritz Oberndorfer
  19. Workplace Hostility By Collis, Manuela R.; Van Effenterre, Clémentine
  20. Housing, Income Inequality and Progressivity of Taxes and Transfers By Siminski, Peter; Wilkins, Roger
  21. Banking system stability: A global analysis of cybercrime laws By Douglas Cumming; My Nguyen; Anh Viet Pham; Ama Samarasinghe
  22. Portfolio Optimization via Transfer Learning By Kexin Wang; Xiaomeng Zhang; Xinyu Zhang
  23. Visibility-Graph Asymmetry as a Structural Indicator of Volatility Clustering By Micha{\l} Sikorski
  24. Gender Equality Through Marriage By Moroni, Gloria; Nicoletti, Cheti; Salvanes, Kjell G.; Tominey, Emma
  25. “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity!” New Climate Indices for Europe with a Multilevel Factor Model By Casoli, Chiara; Manera, Matteo; Pedini, Luca; Valenti, Daniele
  26. “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity!” New Climate Indices for Europe with a Multilevel Factor Model By Chiara Casoli; Matteo Manera; Luca Pedini; Daniele Valenti
  27. Elasticidad de los precios de viviendas frente a regulaciones urbanas: Evidencia por el lado de la oferta en Santiago, Chile By Lozano, Francisco Javier
  28. When to go Green? Firm Dynamics & Clean Technology Adoption By Bas Gorrens
  29. Children, Household Specialization and Relationship Quality By Belén Rodríguez Moro; Olatz Román
  30. Good News Travels Fast: Global Demand Shocks, Oil Futures, and Emerging Markets Dynamics By Felipe Beltrán; Mr. David O Coble Fernandez; Manuel Escobar; Felipe D Rojas
  31. Asylum Assignment and Burden-Sharing By Gian Caspari; Manshu Khanna

  1. By: Chao Gu (University of Missouri); Janet Hua Jiang (Bank of Canada); Liang Wang (University of Hawaii)
    Abstract: We construct a New Monetarist model with labor market search and identify two channels that affect the long-run relationship between inflation and unemployment. First, inflation lowers wages through bargaining because unemployed workers rely more heavily on cash transactions and suffer more from inflation than employed workers; this wage-bargaining channel generates a downward-sloping Phillips curve without assuming nominal rigidity. Second, inflation increases firms' financing costs, which discourages job creation and increases unemployment; this cash-financing channel leads to an upward-sloping Phillips curve. We calibrate our model to the U.S. economy. The improvement in firm financing conditions can explain the observation that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve has switched from positive to negative post-2000.
    Keywords: Credit Conditions, Inflation, Liquidity, Money, Phillips Curve, Unemployment
    JEL: E24 E31 E44 E51
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:202503
  2. By: Guerini, Mattia; Marin, Giovanni; Vona, Francesco
    Abstract: We study how monetary policy shapes firm level carbon emissions. Our identification strategy exploits the European Central Bank’s July 2012 move to the zero lower bound as a plausibly exogenous easing of credit supply, combined with rich administrative and survey data on French manufacturing firms from 2000–2019. Using a difference-in-differences design with debt-to-asset ratios as exposure, we find that financially constrained firms cut emissions by about 9.4% more than unconstrained ones. This effect primarily stems from improvements in energy efficiency, lower carbon intensity of energy, and general productivity improvements associated with capital deepening that outweighed modest scale effects. Small and medium firms drive these results, while large and EU ETS regulated firms show no significant response. On average, emissions fell by 3.3% per year, summing up to 5.3 million tonnes of CO2 saved. Despite the smaller marginal effects, total carbon savings due to the monetary easing are comparable to the savings from the EU ETS, highlighting the untargeted nature of the policy.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2025–12–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:376272
  3. By: Mattia Guerini (Università degli Studi di Brescia and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Giovanni Marin (Università degli Studi di Urbino Carlo Bo, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies); Francesco Vona (Università degli Studi di Milano, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and OFCE Sciences-Po)
    Abstract: We study how monetary policy shapes firm level carbon emissions. Our identification strategy exploits the European Central Bank’s July 2012 move to the zero lower bound as a plausibly exogenous easing of credit supply, combined with rich administrative and survey data on French manufacturing firms from 2000–2019. Using a difference-in-differences design with debt-to-asset ratios as exposure, we find that financially constrained firms cut emissions by about 9.4% more than unconstrained ones. This effect primarily stems from improvements in energy efficiency, lower carbon intensity of energy, and general productivity improvements associated with capital deepening that outweighed modest scale effects. Small and medium firms drive these results, while large and EU ETS regulated firms show no significant response. On average, emissions fell by 3.3% per year, summing up to 5.3 million tonnes of CO2 saved. Despite the smaller marginal effects, total carbon savings due to the monetary easing are comparable to the savings from the EU ETS, highlighting the untargeted nature of the policy.
    Keywords: Financial constraints, credit supply, firm level carbon emissions, climate policies
    JEL: Q52 Q48 D22
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.31
  4. By: Klepacka, Anna M.; Florkowski, Wojciech J.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Neupane, Sulakshan
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343848
  5. By: Jayasekera, Deshamithra H W; Melkani, Aakanksha; Mieno, Taro
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343932
  6. By: Carlos Álvarez-Nogal (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: Adaptation strategies are considered important in mitigating the mortality effects of warm temperatures, but less is known about the role of public health interventions. I study how the provision of three health-enhancing services—sanitary infrastructures, scientific-based infant care and hospital care—influenced the temperature-mortality gradient in Germany during the period 1888-1913. I find that: (i) the mortality impact of warm temperatures was substantial; (ii) heat-related mortality (infant deaths) decreased by ca. 25 (30) percent; and (iii) greater access to piped water, infant care and hospital care account for 60 (25) percent of the mortality decline at high temperatures.
    Keywords: Germany, extreme temperatures, mortality, public health, climate
    JEL: I10 I30 I18 N33 Q54
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0290
  7. By: Wen Jiang; Yachen Wang; Zeqi Wu; Xingbai Xu
    Abstract: This paper develops limit theorems for random variables with network dependence, without requiring that individuals in the network to be located in a Euclidean or metric space. This distinguishes our approach from most existing limit theorems in network econometrics, which are based on weak dependence concepts such as strong mixing, near-epoch dependence, and $\psi$-dependence. By relaxing the assumption of an underlying metric space, our theorems can be applied to a broader range of network data, including financial and social networks. To derive the limit theorems, we generalize the concept of functional dependence (also known as physical dependence) from time series to random variables with network dependence. Using this framework, we establish several inequalities, a law of large numbers, and central limit theorems. Furthermore, we verify the conditions for these limit theorems based on primitive assumptions for spatial autoregressive models, which are widely used in network data analysis.
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.17928
  8. By: Olumide, Samuel O.; Timu, Anne G.; Gustafson, Christopher R.
    Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, Farm Management
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343761
  9. By: Gong, Ziqian; Baker, Justin S.; Wade, Christopher M.; Havlík, Petr
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343581
  10. By: Sofoklis Goulas; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Tommaso Sartori
    Abstract: Teachers play a central role in shaping how students benefit from peers, yet little is known about how classroom composition affects their attention-allocation decisions. We conduct a large-scale randomized experiment using realistic class- room vignettes to assess how teachers engage with students under varying scenarios and objectives. The presence of a high achiever reduces the likelihood that teachers engage with a low achiever by about 8%, with substantially larger effects when teachers prioritize task success, consistent with convenience-based decision-making. Using administrative data, we show that low achievers per- form worse when quasi-randomly assigned to a classroom with an exceptional student.
    Keywords: teacher behavior, attention allocation, randomized controlled trial, educational inequality, peer effects
    JEL: I21 I28 C93 D91 J24
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12301
  11. By: Sanguinetti, Angela PhD; Fitch, Dillon PhD; Ferguson, Beth PhD; D'Agostino, Mollie
    Abstract: Micromobility—including shared, loaned, and leased bikes, e-bikes, and e-scooters—holds significant promise in supporting more sustainable travel. It supports first- and last-mile connections to public transit and reduces vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and associated emissions. However, the micromobility sector faces persistent challenges, and the path forward to delivering sustainable and equitable services remains unclear.To help chart that path, our research team conducted a Delphi study via two online surveys of micromobility stakeholders (N=45). Based on the findings, this brief presents a research roadmap that reflects the priorities of government, industry, and advocacy groups. It highlights where stakeholder perspectives align and where they diverge—laying the foundation for more targeted and collaborative research, policy, and practice.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2025–11–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8rc253cs
  12. By: Nur Bilge; Simone Moriconi
    Abstract: This paper uses data from the Turkish Household Labour Force Survey (2005–2020) to examine how Syrian refugee inflows affect gender inequalities within households. Employing a shift-share IV strategy based on the historical share of Arabic-speaking populations in Turkey in 1965, we find that increased refugee inflows are linked to greater intra-family gender inequality. We find a sizeable effect, which is closely intertwined with family formation. When both spouses work, a 10% rise in the stock of refugees may lead to between 0.8% and 3.4% increase in the gender productivity penalty within households with at least one child, while no effect is observed in childless families. These findings suggest that the motherhood channel undermines the labor market position of married native women in response to external labor supply shock induced by refugee migration. Finally, our analysis highlights the importance of sectoral characteristics, differences in education levels, and cultural factors in shaping gender specific competition and inequalities within the household.
    Keywords: refugees, household, inequality, local labour market
    JEL: D63 E24 F22 J12 J61 R23
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12296
  13. By: Lemken, Dominic; Simonetti, Aline; Heinke, Gloria; Estevez, Ana
    Keywords: Marketing, Consumer/Household Economics
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343537
  14. By: Vikash Kumar Dubey; Suman Chakraborty; Arunava Patra; Sagar Chakraborty
    Abstract: Evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is the defining concept of evolutionary game theory. It has a fairly unanimously accepted definition for the case of symmetric games which are played in a homogeneous population where all individuals are in same role. However, in asymmetric games, which are played in a population with multiple subpopulations (each of which has individuals in one particular role), situation is not as clear. Various generalizations of ESS defined for such cases differ in how they correspond to fixed points of replicator equation which models evolutionary dynamics of frequencies of strategies in the population. Moreover, some of the definitions may even be equivalent, and hence, redundant in the scheme of things. Along with reporting some new results, this paper is partly indented as a contextual mini-review of some of the most important definitions of ESS in asymmetric games. We present the definitions coherently and scrutinize them closely while establishing equivalences -- some of them hitherto unreported -- between them wherever possible. Since it is desirable that a definition of ESS should correspond to asymptotically stable fixed points of replicator dynamics, we bring forward the connections between various definitions and their dynamical stabilities. Furthermore, we find the use of principle of relative entropy to gain information-theoretic insights into the concept of ESS in asymmetric games, thereby establishing a three-fold connection between game theory, dynamical system theory, and information theory in this context. We discuss our conclusions also in the backdrop of asymmetric hypermatrix games where more than two individuals interact simultaneously in the course of getting payoffs.
    Date: 2024–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.19320
  15. By: Yhlas Sovbetov; Mohamed Moussa
    Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of economic freedom on foreign direct investments inflows in both global and regional panel analyses involving 156 countries through the period of 1995-2016. Unlike to prior literature, it includes often neglected nations such as Fragile and Conflict-Affected states, Sub-Saharan, Oceanian, and Post-Soviet countries. The paper finds a positive impact of economic freedom on FDI under fixed-effects model in global case where a unit change in economic freedom scales FDI inflows up to 1.15 units. More specifically, all 9 regions also refer to positive and significant impact of economic freedom on FDI. The highest impact is recorded in European countries, whereas the lowest ones are documented in Fragile-Conflict affected states, Sub-Saharan zone, and Oceanian countries.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.01695
  16. By: Brennan, Dominic
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2025–12–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt8zw6t6m7
  17. By: Gwen-Jiro Clochard; Shubham Dey; Shusaku Sasaki; Taisuke Imai
    Abstract: This paper presents the first quantitative meta-analysis of the price elasticity of charitable giving under both rebate and matching schemes. We compile 151 elasticity estimates from 33 experimental studies and synthesize them using random-effects and multi-level models. Charitable giving is highly price-responsive: the pooled meta-analytic mean elasticity of total donations is -1.25, indicating that lowering the effective price of giving substantially increases charitable revenue. Although we observe considerable between-study heterogeneity and some evidence of publication bias, bias-adjusted estimates remain negative. Furthermore, elasticity is substantially more negative under matching (-1.98) than under rebate (-0.87), contradicting the theoretical prediction of equivalence but aligning with the original experimental findings in this literature. The rebate-matching difference is attenuated when moving from laboratory to field settings, although it persists.
    Keywords: charitable giving, rebate, matching, experiment, meta-analysis
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12310
  18. By: Aapo Hiilamo (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Moritz Oberndorfer
    Abstract: A randomized trial of a partial basic income scheme for the population in unemployment in Finland was conducted in 2017–2018. No studies to date that we are aware of have investigated to what extent the effects of the trial on self-reported mental health were heterogeneous. This is an important question for understanding the implications of basic income schemes for the distribution of mental health in a population. We studied effect heterogeneity using data from a survey conducted at the end of the two-year experiment with a response rate of 20% (intervention n=569, control n=1028). Mental health was measured by the MHI-5 five-item instrument. We considered effect heterogeneity across potential indicators of labor market disadvantages, including age, gender, education, prior employment status, household size, and family type. Participants in the intervention group had moderately better mental health compared with those in the control group (adjusted risk difference for poor mental health -0.08 [95%CI: -0.12; -0.03]). Multilevel modelling and causal forest showed no evidence for heterogenous effects on mental health. Our results suggest that basic incomes schemes have no harmful effects on mental health across multiple potential axes of labor market disadvantage, and are unlikely to increase mental health inequalities among people in unemployment.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-035
  19. By: Collis, Manuela R. (University of Toronto); Van Effenterre, Clémentine (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: We investigate how much individuals value a workplace that doesn't tolerate hostility, and how these preferences affect sorting in the labor market. We conduct a choice experiment involving 2, 048 participants recruited from recent graduates and alumni from a large public university. Our results show that individuals are willing to forgo a significant portion of their earnings—between 12 and 36 percent of their wage—to avoid hostile work environments, valuations substantially exceeding those for remote work (7 percent). Women exhibit a stronger aversion to exclusionary workplaces and environments with sexual harassment. Combining survey evidence, experimental variations of workplace environments, and individual labor market outcomes, we show that both disutility from workplace hostility and perceptions of risk contribute to gender gaps in early-career choices and in pay. To quantify equilibrium implications, we develop a model of compensating differentials calibrated to our experimental estimates. Using counterfactual exercises, we find that gender differences in risk of workplace hostility drive both the remote pay penalty and office workers' rents.
    Keywords: compensating differentials, workplace hostility, gender
    JEL: J16 J24 J31
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18302
  20. By: Siminski, Peter (University of Technology, Sydney); Wilkins, Roger (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research)
    Abstract: We examine the role of owner-occupied housing for income inequality. Departing from related work, we incorporate accrued capital gains, focus on long-run measures of income, and consider implications for tax progressivity. Using Australia as a case study, we show that housing income can have major implications for the apparent level and trends over time of inequality, progressivity of taxes and transfers, as well as the demographic profile of the rich and the poor. When imputed rent and accrued capital gains—neither of which are taxed—are included in the income base, the redistributive impact of income tax is reduced by 40%.
    Keywords: tax progressivity, housing, inequality
    JEL: D63 R21 H24
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18303
  21. By: Douglas Cumming; My Nguyen; Anh Viet Pham; Ama Samarasinghe
    Abstract: We examine the role of cybercrime legislation around the world in shaping the stability of the banking system. We compile a novel dataset covering the enactment of cybercrime legislation in 132 developed and developing countries to empirically test this research question. We find that the enactment of cybercrime laws enhances the stability of the banking sector. This key finding holds across a comprehensive suite of robustness tests, including alternative measures of bank stability and model specifications. We document significant cross-sectional heterogeneity, with the effect being more pronounced in countries with heavier penalties for illegal cyber activities and legal frameworks that hold banks accountable for their cybersecurity practices. In addition, the positive impact is stronger in jurisdictions with greater international legal cooperation and effective enforcement mechanisms. We further investigate two channels (i.e., funding liquidity and operational risk) through which cybercrime laws may influence bank stability. Our results indicate that these laws can significantly bolster bank stability by enhancing funding liquidity and mitigating operational risk. Overall, our study highlights the crucial role of cybercrime legislation in fostering a secure and resilient banking environment. It offers new insights into how these laws contribute to bank stability on both individual and systemic levels.
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.01237
  22. By: Kexin Wang; Xiaomeng Zhang; Xinyu Zhang
    Abstract: Recognizing that asset markets generally exhibit shared informational characteristics, we develop a portfolio strategy based on transfer learning that leverages cross-market information to enhance the investment performance in the market of interest by forward validation. Our strategy asymptotically identifies and utilizes the informative datasets, selectively incorporating valid information while discarding the misleading information. This enables our strategy to achieve the maximum Sharpe ratio asymptotically. The promising performance is demonstrated by numerical studies and case studies of two portfolios: one consisting of stocks dual-listed in A-shares and H-shares, and another comprising equities from various industries of the United States.
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.21221
  23. By: Micha{\l} Sikorski
    Abstract: Volatility clustering is one of the most robust stylized facts of financial markets, yet it is typically detected using moment-based diagnostics or parametric models such as GARCH. This paper shows that clustered volatility also leaves a clear imprint on the time-reversal symmetry of horizontal visibility graphs (HVGs) constructed on absolute returns in physical time. For each time point, we compute the maximal forward and backward visibility distances, $L^{+}(t)$ and $L^{-}(t)$, and use their empirical distributions to build a visibility-asymmetry fingerprint comprising the Kolmogorov--Smirnov distance, variance difference, entropy difference, and a ratio of extreme visibility spans. In a Monte Carlo study, these HVG asymmetry features sharply separate volatility-clustered GARCH(1, 1) dynamics from i.i.d.\ Gaussian noise and from randomly shuffled GARCH series that preserve the marginal distribution but destroy temporal dependence; a simple linear classifier based on the fingerprint achieves about 90\% in-sample accuracy. Applying the method to daily S\&P500 data reveals a pronounced forward--backward imbalance, including a variance difference $\Delta\mathrm{Var}$ that exceeds the simulated GARCH values by two orders of magnitude and vanishes after shuffling. Overall, the visibility-graph asymmetry fingerprint emerges as a simple, model-free, and geometrically interpretable indicator of volatility clustering and time irreversibility in financial time series.
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.02352
  24. By: Moroni, Gloria (Ca’ Foscari University Venice); Nicoletti, Cheti (University of York); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics); Tominey, Emma (University of York)
    Abstract: We revisit the economic effects of marriage, analysing its heterogeneous impact on the intra-household labour division following childbirth. Can marriage promote coordination of work and child activities between parents and a gender egalitarian division of labour? Using a marginal treatment effect framework, we find the average effect of marriage is to increase parental specialization and worsen the mother’s child penalty. However, we find differences across couples with varying resistance to marriage. While traditional couples (low-resistance) exhibit increased specialization; in modern couples (high-resistance) fathers have an earnings penalty and take more paternity leave, suggesting more coordination and gender equality.
    Keywords: cooperation, specialization, marriage, cohabitation, child human capital
    JEL: J11 J12 J13 J18
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18288
  25. By: Casoli, Chiara; Manera, Matteo; Pedini, Luca; Valenti, Daniele
    Abstract: We construct a comprehensive set of climate indices for European countries that account for several variables related to weather, atmospheric conditions, and water availability. Our dataset includes monthly gridded climate observations from ERA5-Land, aggregated at the country level. Employing a Multilevel Dynamic Factor Model, we disentangle a global indicator, capturing overall climate dynamics across Europe, from country-specific local indices. While most empirical studies proxy climate through temperature or precipitation, our approach acknowledges that other atmospheric dimensions, such as humidity, radiation, and evaporation, jointly shape climatic variability and its economic effects. The global index primarily reflects temperature patterns common to most European countries, whereas the local indicators capture other meteorological phenomena and variations in water reserves. Finally, we show, via panel local projections, that different filtering and detrending procedures used to construct climate anomalies influence the estimated effects of climate shocks on economic activity.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Environmental Economics and Policy, Sustainability
    Date: 2025–11–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:376264
  26. By: Chiara Casoli (InsIDE Lab, Department of Economics-DiECO, University of Insubria and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Matteo Manera (Department of Economics, Management and Statistics-DEMS, University of Milano-Bicocca and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Luca Pedini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Daniele Valenti (Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Polytechnic of Milano and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: We construct a comprehensive set of climate indices for European countries that account for several variables related to weather, atmospheric conditions, and water availability. Our dataset includes monthly gridded climate observations from ERA5-Land, aggregated at the country level. Employing a Multilevel Dynamic Factor Model, we disentangle a global indicator, capturing overall climate dynamics across Europe, from country-specific local indices. While most empirical studies proxy climate through temperature or precipitation, our approach acknowledges that other atmospheric dimensions, such as humidity, radiation, and evaporation, jointly shape climatic variability and its economic effects. The global index primarily reflects temperature patterns common to most European countries, whereas the local indicators capture other meteorological phenomena and variations in water reserves. Finally, we show, via panel local projections, that different filtering and detrending procedures used to construct climate anomalies influence the estimated effects of climate shocks on economic activity.
    Keywords: Climate measures, climate impacts, Multilevel Factor Models, panel local projections
    JEL: Q54 O44 C38 C55 Q56
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.23
  27. By: Lozano, Francisco Javier
    Abstract: This study presents causal evidence elucidating the impact of urban regulations on housing prices through two opposing mechanisms: land value capitalization and construction cost efficiencies. Utilizing instrumental variables and transaction-level data, the research reveals that a 1% increase in building height results in a 0.10% reduction in prices, whereas the floor-area ratio leads to a 0.25% increase. Additionally, density (-0.16%) contributes to price reductions, aligning with efficient land utilization, while lot coverage operates as a price-increasing variable (0.13%). These effects demonstrate significant heterogeneity across urban contexts, with complete sign reversals contingent upon location and income. For example, the price-reducing effect of height is predominantly observed in low-value land and areas with high accessibility, yet it reverses to a price-increasing effect in peripheral locations. The study identifies notable complementarities among regulations, emphasizing developers’ strategic packaging of norms, particularly in the triple interaction between height, lot coverage, and floor-area ratio. The findings challenge uniform regulatory approaches, suggesting that policies aimed at affordability should advocate for strategic combinations of height and density, tailored to local market contexts.
    Keywords: Urban economics, Housing prices, Land-use regulation, Causal inference
    JEL: R14 R31 R38
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127133
  28. By: Bas Gorrens
    Abstract: Carbon pricing is a central policy instrument for reducing emissions, but governments face a trade-off: faster decarbonization can raise output losses and carbon leakage, while gradual implementa-tion slows emission reductions. This paper studies how EU carbon policies have shaped firms’ adoption of abatement technologies and identifies the optimal trajectory to reach the EU’s 2050 net zero target, particularly in a unilateral context. I develop a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which forward-looking manufacturing firms choose when to adopt discrete abatement technologies under a gradually tightening carbon price. I estimate it using panel data on EU ETS firms from 2005-2019. The model rationalizes the low carbon prices of the 2010s as a consequence of gradual policy and firm anticipation. Emission reduc-tions arise mainly from large, productive, and initially polluting firms. Anticipation of future tightening mitigates half of the short-run output losses in 2025 and two-thirds by 2050, keeping overall output losses below 2%. A moderately faster tightening could cut cumulative emissions by 15% at an additional cost of only 0.11% of output. Finally, because firms anticipate future policy changes, unilateral and global carbon pricing yield nearly identical effects on domestic output and carbon leakage.
    Keywords: trade and environment, technology adoption, firm decisions, climate policy, carbon leakage
    Date: 2025–11–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:vivwps:777266
  29. By: Belén Rodríguez Moro; Olatz Román
    Abstract: We investigate how having children impacts the quality of couples' relationships, a proxy of the non-material gains from being in a relationship. Using a novel measure of relationship quality (RQ), we perform a dynamic difference-in-differences estimation around the birth of the first child. We find a sharp and lasting decrease in RQ immediately after birth. We attribute this effect to changes in household specialization. Traditional gender-based specialization prevails after birth, regardless of the baseline distribution of tasks within the couple. Leveraging heterogeneous changes in household specialization after birth, we find that couples undergoing larger rearrangements also suffer larger RQ drops.
    Keywords: Fertility, Marital decisions, Time allocation, Household specialization
    JEL: J12 J13 J22 D13
    Date: 2025–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_719
  30. By: Felipe Beltrán; Mr. David O Coble Fernandez; Manuel Escobar; Felipe D Rojas
    Abstract: In this paper we study how aggregate demand surprises affect and propagate to the global economy, with particular attention to their impact on Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). To do so, we introduce a new high-frequency external instrument to identify global demand shocks: the sensitivity of oil futures prices around labor market announcements from the US and the Euro Area, two events that consistently trigger strong revisions in global growth expectations across financial markets. Using a proxy-SVAR framework, our results suggest that a global demand shock has positive effects on world industrial production, reduces oil inventories and global uncertainty, and improves financial conditions. In EMEs, upward revision in macroeconomic outlook leads to higher industrial production and inflation, real exchange rate appreciation, and lower EMBI spreads. When the sample is split between oil-importers and exporters, we observe results consistent with the role of external trade exposure in shaping transmission, heterogeneity in the magnitude and persistence of output, inflation, real exchange rates, and sovereign risk responses. These results are consistent with theoretical expectations and the related literature. Our findings offer a credible empirical strategy for isolating global demand shocks and have direct implications for empirical macroeconomic modeling of emerging market economies.
    Keywords: Proxy SVAR; oil futures prices; global demand shocks; Emerging Markets; high frequency identification; labor reports releases
    Date: 2025–12–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/253
  31. By: Gian Caspari; Manshu Khanna
    Abstract: We analyze the problem of matching asylum seekers to member states, incorporating wait times, preferences of asylum seekers, and the priorities, capacities, and burden-sharing commitments of member states. We identify a unique choice rule that addresses feasibility while balancing priorities and capacities. We examine the effects of both homogeneous and heterogeneous burden-sizes among asylum seekers on the matching process. Our main result shows that when all asylum seekers are treated as having identical burden-sizes, the asylum-seeker-proposing cumulative offer mechanism guarantees both stability and strategy-proofness. In contrast, when burden-sizes vary, there are scenarios where achieving stability or strategy-proofness is no longer possible.
    Date: 2025–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.21147

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