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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Masahiko Shibamoto (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration and Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This study provides an empirical assessment of business cycle dynamics using a structuralvector autoregressive (VAR) model that measures cyclical output and identifies business cycle shocks as the main drivers. Using the same data and reduced-form VAR setup as Angeletos et al. (2020, American Economic Review), we estimate the dynamic effects of this shock on the U.S. economy. The cyclical output indicated by the model closely tracked the standard measure of the output gap. The identified business cycle shock has long-lasting effects on both demand- and supply-side factors, permanently influencing output and affecting labor productivity and total factor productivity. These findings contradict the prevailing notion that business cycles are short-term phenomena and suggest that the forces driving them contribute to medium-term dynamics. This implies a pivotal connection between short-term stabilization and long-term growth. |
| Keywords: | Business-cycle shocks; Structural vector autoregressive model; Finite-horizon identification; Cyclical output; Medium-term dynamics |
| JEL: | C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-30 |
| By: | Karlsson, Sune (Örebro University School of Business); Österholm, Pär (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse whether two key macroeconomic relationships in Australia – Okun’s law and the Phillips curve – have been stable over time. This is done by estimating hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models using quarterly data from 1978 to 2024. Model comparison based on marginal likelihoods indicates that Okun’s law has been stable, whereas the Phillips curve has not. Using the preferred specification of the BVAR for the unemployment rate and inflation, we also calculate trend values for both variables. The model’s trend unemployment rate at the end of the sample is approximately five percent; estimated trend inflation at the same point in time is close to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Unemployment; GDP growth; Bayesian VAR; Time-varying parameters |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2025_015 |
| By: | Fan, Xinxin; Lee, Yuanyao Stanley; Khanna, Madhu; Kent, Jeffery; Shi, Rui; Guest, Jeremy; Lee, DoKyoung |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343741 |
| By: | Eran B. Hoffmann; Monika Piazzesi; Martin Schneider |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the connection between regional growth trends and labor market dynamics. New data on manufacturing worker flows for U.S. cities 1969-1981 show more new hires and more voluntary quits in growing cities, but more forced layoffs in shrinking cities. Recessions are special in growing cities in that hires and quits drop, whereas in shrinking cities layoffs rise. A quantitative business cycle model with migration and on-the-job search accounts for a large share of variation in growth and worker flows both over time and across space. Growing cities in the South and West had low job creation costs and only gradual in-migration, so tight labor markets encouraged more on-the-job search. In those cities, aggregate job destruction shocks generated recessions with lower labor market churn. In the shrinking cities of the Rust Belt, in contrast, churn was always low and responded little in recessions. |
| JEL: | E30 E32 J62 J63 J64 R11 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34515 |
| By: | Plaasch, Jannick; Röthig, Andreas |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) model of the Bundesbank for Germany. This model takes the form of a quantile regression that quantifies downside risk to German GDP growth associated with financial developments. A systematic comparison of diverse model specifications is performed to select the most suitable GaR model based on economic criteria and out-of-sample predictive performance. The preferred model relates the 10% quantile of the conditional distribution of GDP growth to financial stress in Germany as captured by the Country-Level Index of Financial Stress (CLIFS), as well as US financial conditions as meas- ured by the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) for the USA. In addition, the preferred specification includes GDP growth of the two preceding periods to account for serial dependence and a business confidence indicator (BCI) of German companies, which underscores that economic sentiment also matters for downside risk to growth. The evaluation shows that the 10% quantile coefficients are more stable than those of the 5% quantile, making the 10% quantile a more robust measure of downside risk for German GDP. Data from the COVID period are excluded, as the pandemic was not a financial system-driven crisis. Estimation results show that financial stress, measured by both CLIFS and NFCI, contributed most strongly to downside risk to GDP growth during the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis. The CLIFS also significantly increased downside risk in the early 2000s and following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In recent years, historically low financial stress has corresponded to moderate downside risk, with economic sentiment acting as the main amplifier. |
| Keywords: | Growth-at-Risk, GDP Growth, Germany, Tail Risk, Financial Conditions |
| JEL: | C53 E23 E27 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:333425 |
| By: | Leonardo N. Ferreira; Haroon Mumtaz; Gabor Pinter |
| Abstract: | We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271--2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output variance. Before 1900, these shocks display a stagflationary, supply-driven pattern, while post-1900 shocks become demand-driven, raising both output and inflation. Output volatility declines over time, peaking in the seventeenth century. Monetisation had large real effects in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, shifting to more inflationary impacts thereafter. Our results highlight how business cycle dynamics evolve with institutional, monetary, and structural transformations. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.15643 |
| By: | Chand, Ramesh |
| Abstract: | Since the seminal work of Arthur Lewis (1954) on Dual Sector Economy, development economics literature has emphasised structural transformation of economy marked by decline in share of agriculture in economy’s output and employment as an economy grows from low income towards middle and higher income. Based on this literature, policy emphasis for growth and development tilted towards non agriculture sectors especially manufacturing. In some cases this even led to overlooking the role of agriculture in development, which is qualitatively different than role of non agriculture in growth and development. Of late, there is a realization that the importance of agriculture for economy and society is much larger than what is revealed by its share in GDP. This implies that changes in share of agriculture in GDP is not a best guide for policies on growth and development. Everywhere, changes in occupation structure followed changes in structure of output with a long time gap. In some of the emerging economies the two shares i.e. share of agriculture in GDP and workforce are moving parallel instead of showing convergence. This has serious implications for employment and disparities in per worker income in agriculture and non agriculture, which is further related to poverty. Hunger at global level and in a large number of countries is showing increase after 2015 despite increase in per capita food output. More than 3 billion people are reported to be unable to afford healthy diets in 2020. Agriculture is also significant contributor to climate change and unsustainable use of natural resources. Such trends are threatening life of people and planet. There is a pressing need to reimagine agriculture and its role in nutrition and health and for inclusive and sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344336 |
| By: | Rami Najjar; Adam Hale Shapiro |
| Abstract: | We show that the underlying source of inflation impacts financial market perceptions of the persistence of monetary policy tightening. Investors expect policy tightening to be more persistent inflation is driven by demand factors. During supply-driven episodes, however, investors perceive tightening as less persistent and less effective at producing a disinflation. These results point to a state-dependent financial market response to monetary policy: credibility, and therefore financial-market transmission, depends on what kind of inflation the central bank is perceived to be fighting. |
| Keywords: | monetary transmission; inflation expectations; high frequency; taylor rule |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:102150 |
| By: | Chuck Fang; Itay Goldstein |
| Abstract: | Target allocation funds (TAFs) make predictable rebalancing trades to maintain portfolio weights across asset classes. During the COVID-19 stock market crash, TAFs sold $59 billion of bond fund shares and simultaneously purchased a similar amount of equity fund shares. We show that TAF rebalancing triggers strategic complementarity: bond mutual funds facing larger rebalancing-induced sales by TAFs experienced greater outflows from other non-TAF investors. This effect was particularly pronounced for illiquid bond funds and amplified total bond fund outflows during COVID-19 by an additional $27 billion. Rebalancing by TAFs, together with the strategic amplification by other investors, transmits equity market shocks to bond returns, accounting for 17% of the rise in stock-bond correlation over the past decade. |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34509 |
| By: | Centre for Policy Dialogue |
| Abstract: | This policy brief outlines CPD’s recommendations for the National Budget of FY2025. In FY2024, the government confronted poor revenue collection, soaring inflation, bank liquidity constraints, and falling foreign currency reserves. These internal and global concerns, worsened by political instability, need a budget that solves urgent issues and establishes long-term stability. CPD recommends maintaining macroeconomic stability, increasing fiscal flexibility, and optimising public resources in the FY2025 budget. |
| Keywords: | BangladeshEconomy, RevenueChallenge, InflationPressure, MoneySupplyImpact, BankingSectorCrisis, CRWARisk, SOEWeakness, ExportGrowth, KnitRMG, ForexReserves, EnergyCrisisBD, ImportDependence, InfrastructureGap |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:87 |
| By: | Barbora Livorova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Czech National Bank); Adam Gersl (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to studying the impacts of monetary policy on labour income inequality in the euro area using subnational regional data on compensation per employee. The dataset covers 932 NUTS3 regions from 16 countries over the period 2000 - 2022 at a yearly frequency. Using sub-sample analysis combined with local projections, the results show that monetary policy rate changes have heterogeneous effects on the growth of real compensation per employee (deflated by the GDP deflator) at both the bottom and upper ends of the regional distribution within individual countries. From the whole euro area perspective, monetary policy tightening has a heterogeneous effect on labour incomes between regions - in times of monetary policy easing, shortening the gap between average low- and high-income regions. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Regional Inequality, Compensation of employees, Local Projections |
| JEL: | E52 J31 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_27 |
| By: | Fanghella, Valeria; Fezzi, Carlo; Schleich, Joachim; Sebi, Carine |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the incentive compatibility of different elicitation formats for estimating willingness to accept (WTA) in the field. We assess the convergent validity of standard and theorydriven (i.e. based on mechanism-design theory) versions of the double-bounded binary choice (DB) and the open-ended (OE) formats against the single-binary choice (SBC). Our empirical application, developed in collaboration with a major energy company, is based on estimating compensation for the installation of wind farms in respondents' municipalities of residence. We find strong evidence against convergent validity for both versions of the OE format. In comparison, both versions of the DB format, especially the theory-driven version, yield WTA estimates similar to those of the SBC, ranging from near zero for supporters of wind power to €1500-€1800 for opponents. Finally, we introduce a novel econometric approach that allows the utility of compensation to be non-linear when estimating WTA (and WTP) from binary choices. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie bewertet die Anreizkompatibilität verschiedener Erhebungsformate zur Schätzung der Akzeptanzbereitschaft (WTA) in der Praxis. Wir bewerten die konvergente Validität von standardisierten und theoriegeleiteten (d. h. auf der Mechanismusdesign-Theorie basierenden) Versionen des doppelt begrenzten binären Auswahlformats (DB) und des offenen Formats (OE) im Vergleich zum einfach binären Auswahlformat (SBC). Unsere empirische Anwendung, die in Zusammenarbeit mit einem großen Energieunternehmen entwickelt wurde, basiert auf der Schätzung der Entschädigung für die Installation von Windparks in den Wohnorten der Befragten. Wir finden starke Hinweise gegen die konvergente Validität für beide Versionen des OE-Formats. Im Vergleich dazu liefern beide Versionen des DB-Formats, insbesondere die theoriegeleitete Version, WTA-Schätzungen, die denen des SBC ähneln und von nahezu Null für Befürworter der Windkraft bis zu 1500-1800 € für Gegner reichen. Schließlich stellen wir einen neuartigen ökonometrischen Ansatz vor, der es ermöglicht, den Nutzen der Entschädigung bei der Schätzung der WTA (und WTP) aus binären Entscheidungen nichtlinear zu gestalten. |
| Keywords: | contingent valuation, willingness to accept, wind farm, mechanism design |
| JEL: | C10 C93 D60 H41 Q51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:331884 |
| By: | Owen, Dave; Dahlke, Helen E; Fisher, Andrew T; Bruno, Ellen; Kiparsky, Michael |
| Abstract: | Increasing water demands and declining groundwater levels have led to rising interest in managed aquifer recharge. That interest is growing in the United States-the focus of this article-and elsewhere. Increasing interest makes sense; managed aquifer recharge can reduce water-supply challenges and provide environmental benefits, sometimes with lower costs than alternative water-management approaches. But managed aquifer recharge also faces growing pains, which will make it difficult for projects to scale up and may limit the benefits provided by those projects that do go forward. Some of the problems arise from the challenges of finding physically suitable locations for managed aquifer recharge; many derive from economics, public policy, and law; and some derive from ways in which managed aquifer recharge could exacerbate traditional equity challenges of water management. But as we explain, there also are potential solutions to these challenges, and the future success of managed aquifer recharge will likely depend on the extent to which these solutions are adopted. |
| Keywords: | 3707 Hydrology (for-2020), 37 Earth Sciences (for-2020), 3705 Geology (for-2020), Water Supply (mesh), United States (mesh), Groundwater (mesh), Conservation of Water Resources (mesh), Groundwater (mesh), Water Supply (mesh), United States (mesh), Conservation of Water Resources (mesh), 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience (for), 0799 Other Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences (for), Environmental Engineering (science-metrix), 3707 Hydrology (for-2020), 3709 Physical geography and environmental geoscience (for-2020) |
| Date: | 2025–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt4827d28v |
| By: | Jorge A. Arroyo |
| Abstract: | I study how first sizable industry entries reshape local and neighboring labor markets in Puerto Rico. Using over a decade of quarterly municipality--industry data (2014Q1--2025Q1), I identify ``first sizable entries'' as large, persistent jumps in establishments, covered employment, and wage bill, and treat these as shocks to local industry presence at the municipio--industry level. Methodologically, I combine staggered-adoption difference-in-differences estimators that are robust to heterogeneous treatment timing with an imputation-based event-study approach, and I use a doubly robust difference-in-differences framework that explicitly allows for interference through pre-specified exposure mappings on a contiguity graph. The estimates show large and persistent direct gains in covered employment and wage bill in the treated municipality--industry cells over 0--16 quarters. Same-industry neighbors experience sizable short-run gains that reverse over the medium run, while within-municipality cross-industry and neighbor all-industries spillovers are small and imprecisely estimated. Once these spillovers are taken into account and spatially robust inference and sensitivity checks are applied, the net regional 0--16 quarter effect on covered employment is positive but modest in magnitude and estimated with considerable uncertainty. The results imply that first sizable entries generate substantial local gains where they occur, but much smaller and less precisely measured net employment gains for the broader regional economy, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial spillovers when evaluating place-based policies. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.19469 |
| By: | Mabrouki, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | This study examines the synergistic effects of digitalization and financial development on inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a balanced panel from 13 countries (2000–2022) and the Pooled Mean Group Vector Error Correction Model (PMG-VECM), we establish a robust long-run equilibrium. Findings reveal digitalization (Internet penetration) and institutional quality as the strongest drivers, with elasticities of 0.084 and 0.424, respectively. Financial development shows a moderate positive effect (0.075), while investment and trade openness present counterintuitive negative coefficients, suggesting structural inefficiencies. A significant error correction mechanism confirms convergence towards long-run equilibrium at a 19.5% annual speed. As the first comprehensive application of PMG-VECM to this nexus in SSA, this study provides methodologically robust evidence that distinguishes short-run dynamics from long-run effects. The results underscore the necessity for integrated, long-term policies that simultaneously advance digital infrastructure, financial sector deepening, and institutional quality to foster inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | 1. Digital Transformation 2. Financial Development 3. Inclusive Growth 4. PMG-VECM 5. Sub-Saharan Africa 6. Institutional Quality 7. Panel Cointegration |
| JEL: | O55 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126558 |
| By: | Joshua Goodman; Joseph Winkelmann |
| Abstract: | Declining U.S. college enrollments over the past 15 years have triggered questions about the health of the postsecondary sector. Using institution-level data, we make four points. First, such declines are driven not by the four-year sector but by two-year community colleges, which have apparently shrunk by over 30% since the peak of the Great Recession. Second, over one-third of this apparent decline is an artifact of some community colleges being reclassified as offering four-year degrees. Third, pre-Great Recession data shows a 1 percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate increases first-time community college enrollment by 2 percent, suggesting many students are on the margin between community college and job opportunities. For-profit college enrollments are similarly countercyclical, while public and private four-year college enrollments appear acyclical. Our estimates suggest that strengthening labor markets explain about 60% of the post-Great Recession decline in first-time community college enrollment. Fourth, students whose enrollment decisions are most sensitive to labor market conditions appear unlikely to have completed a degree. Though declining community college enrollments are a challenge for postsecondary institutions, it is less clear whether they signal a problem for students on the margin of enrollment. |
| JEL: | E3 I2 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34498 |
| By: | Michaelides, Marios (Actus Policy Research); Mueser, Peter; Poe-Yamagata, Eileen; Davis, Scott |
| Abstract: | The Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program is a job-search assistance intervention targeting Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants in the United States. The program requires new UI claimants to attend a counseling session at the start of their UI claims to: 1) undergo an eligibility review to confirm their compliance with UI work search requirements, and 2) receive customized reemployment services. This study reports the results of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) of the Wisconsin RESEA program conducted in 2022-2023, a period of strong labor market conditions. Results show that the program increased take-up of job counseling services and significantly reduced UI duration and benefit amounts collected, generating substantial savings for the UI system. Further, requiring participants to attend a follow-up counseling session is shown to cause additional reductions in UI receipt, beyond those achieved by the initial session. |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zp24c_v1 |
| By: | Boyer, Marcel; Panot, Molivann |
| Abstract: | This article examines the evolution of inequality since 1920, highlighting the need to rebalance research and public debate toward the forms of inequality that matter most for social welfare. While income and wealth disparities have received overwhelming attention in academia and public policy circles, consumption inequality, a more relevant indicator, has declined over the last two and a half decades. The main characteristics of developments in income and wealth inequality over time (since 1920) are presented: the share of the top 1% of earners followed a downward trend until the 1970-79 decade, and an upward trend thereafter, returning to levels comparable to those of the 1920s. The share of the top 10% of earners followed a similar movement. Despite the prominence of distributional issues in contemporary debates, comprehensive measures of consumption inequality remain underdeveloped. Yet the need for such metrics is urgent. Progress over the past 25 years—led in part by initiatives at Statistics Canada—offers a promising foundation for more accurate and policy-relevant assessments of economic well-being. One important factor has been the development of social transfers in kind ( STiK), which add significant resources and benefits to households in the lowest income quintile to a greater extent than to those in the highest quintile. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:127082 |
| By: | Fitch-Polse, Dillon; Fukushige, Tatsuya |
| Abstract: | This project reviews and summarizes empirical evidence for a selection of transportation and land use policies, infrastructure investments, demand management programs, and pricing policies for reducing vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The project explicitly considers social equity (fairness that accounts for differences in opportunity) and justice (equity of social systems) for the strategies and their outcomes. Each brief identifies the best available evidence in the peer-reviewedacademic literature and has detailed discussions of study selection and methodological issues. VMT and GHG emissions reduction is shown by effect size, defined as the amount of change in VMT (orother measures of travel behavior) per unit of the strategy, e.g., a unit increase in density. Effect sizes can be used to predict the outcome of a proposed policy or strategy. They can be in absolute terms (e.g., VMT reduced), but are more commonly in relative terms (e.g., percent VMT reduced). Relative effect sizes are often reported as the percent change in the outcome divided by the percent change in the strategy, also called an elasticity. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5q1665f4 |
| By: | del Barrio Castro, Tomas; Sanso Rossello, Andreu; Sibbertsen, Philipp |
| Abstract: | In this paper we find an alternative explanation for the presence of long memory in marginalized time series of an autoregressive system in situations earlier explored by Bauwens, Chevillon and Laurent (2023) and Chevillon, Hecq, and Laurent (2018) which is the near cancellation of the damped trend shared by all the time series of the VAR(1) used in these papers and the MA(1) part of the data generating process followed by the marginalized time series. For a given time dimension T the long memory observed in the marginalized time series will depend on the number of time series in the VAR(1) system but not on the specific value of the main diagonal associated with the matrix of coefficients of the VAR(1) as stated in Chevillon, Hecq, and Laurent (2018) and Bauwens, Chevillon and Laurent (2023). Our results are based on the properties of circulant matrices and the Vector Moving Average representation of the VAR(1) model proposed in the previous two papers. Finally a Monte-Carlo experiment supports our analytical findings. |
| Keywords: | Long Memory, Marginalized Time Series, Damped Trend |
| JEL: | C3 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-742 |
| By: | Ding, Kaijing; Hansen, Mark PhD |
| Abstract: | This study provides a method to quantify the benefits of reducing the costs from flight delays by shifting air passenger traffic to high-speed rail (HSR). We first estimate the number of flight reductions by each quarter hour for airport origin and destination pairs based on HSR ridership forecasts in the California High-Speed Rail 2020 Business Plan. Lasso models are then applied to estimate the impact of the reduced queuing delay at SFO, LAX and SAN airports on arrival delays at national Core 29 airports. Finally, these delay reductions are monetized using aircraft operating costs per hour and the value of passenger time per hour. We apply several different variations of this approach, for example, considering delay at all 29 Core airports or just major California airports, different scenarios for future airport capacity and flight schedules, and different forecasts for future HSR ridership. We estimate mid-range delay cost savings of $51-88 million (2018 dollars) in 2029 and $235-392 million (2018 dollars) in 2033. The estimated savings are similar to, but slightly lower than, those based on cost estimates to upgrade airport capacity to handle passenger traffic that could be diverted to HSR. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, High speed rail, air travel, ridership, forecasting, mathematical models, flight delays, mathematical models, airport capacity, railroad capacity, cost analysis |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt8g57g791 |
| By: | Colliard, Jean-Edouard (HEC Paris - Finance Department); Zhao, Junli (Bayes Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the finance labor market when humans and AI perform different tasks in investment projects, and workers earn agency rents that grow with project size. We identify two key effects of AI improvement: A free-riding effect raises worker rents by increasing the probability of successful investment when the worker shirks; A capital reallocation effect shifts investment toward workers with higher or lower rents, depending on which tasks AI improves. Contrary to standard predictions, AI can raise both worker rents and labor demand. We derive implications for capital allocation, labor demand, compensation, and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; labor market; automation; rents in finance |
| JEL: | O33 |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1576 |
| By: | Dunn , Richard A.; Babkin, Anton; Sandler, Austin; Curtis, Katherine; Adamson , Clayton; Peters, Sara |
| Abstract: | The economies of rural America continue to lag those in metropolitan areas with many experiencing significant hardship, but there is increasing agreement among researchers and policymakers that existing place typologies are inadequate for addressing urban-rural disparities. Because these typologies emphasize the urban end of the rural-urban continuum with rural treated as the undifferentiated residual category, the complex interaction of economic, demographic, and social factors that define rural places are ignored. To address this challenge, we have developed a data-driven approach to identify connections between places based on the spatial distribution of potential supply chain linkages to generate a new typology–Economic Catchment Areas (ECAs) thereby illuminating place-to-place connections obscured in existing place hierarchies. To do so, we construct county-to-county potential trade flows in intermediate inputs as the solution to a transportation distance loss function. Counties that would serve as the most important user of inputs for at least one other county are classified as destinations of an ECA, while all the counties for which the destination would be the largest user of their inputs are the sources of the ECA. For rural source counties, we then estimate the relationship between business, economic, demographic, and health outcomes in ECA destination counties and outcomes in their associated source counties. We find that these are positively related, highlighting the potential usefulness of the ECA framework for studying heterogeneity in economic and demographic outcomes among rural U.S. counties. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:347606 |
| By: | Gonzales, Marta C. PhD; Ozturk, Ayse Tugba |
| Abstract: | Despite the years of climate change mitigation effort, per capita transportation emissions are on the rise. Reducing vehicle miles traveled, congestion mitigation and increasing vehicle efficiency are three strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from vehicles. Outcomes of these strategies may contradict each other considering their impacts on the road network and possible behavior changes within the transportation system. Though, models used in policy evaluations do not capture the interplay between vehicle characteristics, travel demand, and urban form. Understanding the spatial and temporal variations in vehicular emissions and the impact of each subsector requires collaboration between two seemingly separate fields: emissions modeling and urban science. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4dk29637 |
| By: | Hüppauff, Jakob; Job, Hubert; Meyer, Constantin; Lintzmeyer, Florian; Obkircher, Stefan; Proidl, Catarina; Pütz, Marco; Schoßleitner, Richard; Salchner, Günter; Ströbel, Kerstin; Weizenegger, Sabine |
| Abstract: | The Alpine region faces particular challenges in implementing the international targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework and the EU Nature Restoration Law. In addition to established components of spatial planning, such as landscape protection or local recreation provision, ecological concerns are increasingly in the spotlight. This position paper from the cross-border working group of the ARL Bavaria Forum considers the multifunctional concept of green infrastructure to be a profitable approach for strengthening the role of spatial planning in the northern Alpine region, specifically with regard to coordinating planning and measures related to open spaces. Such measures and plans have to date been the responsibility of a wide range of specialist departments and are often considered and treated in isolation. At the same time, the intention is also to promote acceptance of government sustainability goals and the effective use of public funds. The position paper outlines a vision of an efficient network of green infrastructure in the Alpine region that, above all, strengthens ecological connectivity and is secured by a spatial planning framework. In order to achieve this, recommendations for action include strengthening the legal framework, ensuring the suitability of planning instruments, promoting and financing measures to implement green infrastructure, strengthening interdepartmental cooperation and mobilising civil social actors. |
| Keywords: | Green infrastructure, Spatial planning, Alpine region, Open space, Intersectoral cooperation, Ecological connectivity |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:333407 |
| By: | Wilhelm Breuer; Carolina Klingbeil |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the state of acceptance of blockchain within the real estate industry, the opportunities and risks for different market participants, and which obstacles play a role in implementation and how these could be eliminated. The paper therefore asks especially the following questions: 1. What opportunities and risks does the use of blockchain harbour? 2. What obstacles play a role in the implementation and how far has the acceptance of blockchain advanced? In order to investigate these questions, a quantitative method in the form of a survey is used, as this shows the current mood based on a representative sample size, which is intended to reflect the real estate industry. This allows causal relationships between the acceptance of blockchain by companies and factors that influence its use in the property industry to be uncovered. |
| Keywords: | blockchain; Germany |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_105 |
| By: | Grenet, Julien (Paris School of Economics and CNRS); Grönqvist, Hans (Department of Economics and Statistics); Hertegård, Edvin (SOFI, Stockholm University); Nybom, Martin (IFAU, Uppsala University); Stuhler, Jan (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden’s deep recession in the early 1990s-which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest—we first show that students whose fathers lost jobs in these sectors were more likely to choose career paths tied to less-affected industries. These students later experienced better labor market outcomes, including higher employment and earnings. Our findings suggest that informational frictions are a key obstacle to structural change and identify career choice as an important channel through which recessions reshape labor markets in the long run. |
| Keywords: | High School Major; Recession; Information Frictions; Structural Change |
| JEL: | E32 I25 J24 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2025_001 |
| By: | Steven W. Popper (Center for Research in Decision Sciences, School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Jose Antonio Torre (Center for the Future of Cities, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Eduardo Armando (Center for the Future of Cities, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Roberto Ponce Lopez (Center for the Future of Cities, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | This report examines the growing challenge of providing adequate and affordable housing in Metropolitan Monterrey, a region whose economic dynamism and sustained demographic growth have intensified long-standing pressures on housing supply. The complexity of this issue, shaped by multiple actors, institutions, interests and interdependent systems, characterizes it as a “wicked problem” for public policy—one with unclear boundaries, unpredictable outcomes, and no definitive solutions. To explore potential pathways for long-term action, the study summarizes the results of a two-day participatory foresight workshop designed to initiate a regional, multi-stakeholder deliberative process. The objective was to collectively envision possible futures for housing in 2040 and to identify strategic directions for moving toward those futures. Although focused on Metropolitan Monterrey, the findings illustrate challenges that are emblematic of urban housing dilemmas across Mexico and other global contexts confronting increasingly complex policy problems. |
| Keywords: | Housing policy, Affordable housing, Wicked problems, Urban governance |
| JEL: | R31 R20 H70 O21 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:16 |
| By: | Burstedde, Alexander; Risius, Paula; Bardt, Hubertus |
| Abstract: | Deutschland sieht sich mit einer verschärften Bedrohungslage konfrontiert. Infolge des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine wurde bereits eine "Zeitenwende" ausgerufen. Die Steigerung der Verteidigungsfähigkeit beinhaltet auch einen deutlichen Personalaufbau bei der Bundeswehr. Die Zahl der Soldaten und Reservisten in Deutschland soll sich bis 2035 von aktuell etwa 230.000 auf 460.000 verdoppeln. Aus den heute knapp über 180.000 Soldaten sollen dann 260.000 werden. Um diese Sollstärke zu erreichen, möchte die Bundesregierung die Zahl der Freiwillig Wehrdienst Leistenden (Schreibweise der Bundeswehr) deutlich erhöhen. Zentral für die Verteidigungsfähigkeit ist die Zahl der einsatzbereiten Soldaten und Reservisten, die aus dem Freiwilligen Wehrdienst hervorgehen. Je nachhaltiger diese Rekrutierung gelingt, desto weniger Freiwillige werden benötigt. Aus ökonomischer Perspektive ist entscheidend, möglichst wenig Personen für den Wehrdienst einzuplanen, die an anderer Stelle produktiver tätig sein könnten. Die Fragestellung der vorliegenden Analyse ist also: Wie kann die Verteidigungsfähigkeit so erhöht werden, dass die volkswirtschaftliche Leistungsfähigkeit möglichst wenig beeinträchtigt wird? Die Studie berechnet dazu Szenarien für den personellen Aufwuchs der Bundeswehr auf Basis unterschiedlicher Annahmen zur Zahl der Freiwilligen und zur Attraktivität des Diensts. Auf Basis des bisherigen Rekrutierungserfolgs der Bundeswehr und den Erfahrungen aus Schweden dürfte, die mit dem Neuen Wehrdienst geplante Erhöhung auf 40.000 Freiwillige jährlich bis 2031 nicht ausreichen, um die Sollstärke zu erreichen. In diesem Basisszenario würde die Zahl der Soldaten und Reservisten bis 2035 um knapp 50 Prozent steigen und bis 2040 um etwa 65 Prozent. Eine Verdopplung erfordert eine Verringerung der Abbrüche, und dass sich mehr Menschen für eine Verpflichtung als Soldat auf Zeit entscheiden. In einem entsprechend optimistischen Szenario mit attraktivem Dienst könnte das Plus bis 2035 knapp 80 Prozent betragen und die Sollstärke bis 2039 erreicht werden. Um die Sollstärke schon wie gewünscht im Jahr 2035 zu erreichen, müsste die Zahl der Freiwillig Wehrdienst Leistenden schneller und deutlicher erhöht werden, bis auf 50.000 im Jahr 2029. Mit mehr Freiwilligen kann der Aufwuchs also beschleunigt werden, für seine Nachhaltigkeit ist jedoch die Attraktivität des Diensts ausschlaggebend. |
| Abstract: | Germany is facing an increased threat level. As a result of Russia's war against Ukraine, a "turning point" (dt.: Zeitenwende) has already been declared. The increase in defense capabilities also includes a significant increase in personnel in the German Armed Forces (dt.: Bundeswehr). The number of soldiers and reservists in Germany is set to double from the current figure of around 230, 000 to 460, 000 by 2035. The current number of just over 180, 000 soldiers is then set to rise to 260, 000. In order to achieve this target, the federal government wants to significantly increase the number of volunteers performing military service (official spelling: Freiwillig Wehrdienst Leistende). From an economic perspective, it is crucial to assign as few people as possible to military service who could be more productive elsewhere. Central to defense capability is the number of combat-ready soldiers and reservists emerging from voluntary service. The more sustainable this recruitment is, the fewer volunteers will be needed. The question is therefore: How can defense capability be strengthened while minimizing the impact on overall economic performance? The study calculates scenarios for personnel growth in the Bundeswehr based on different assumptions regarding the number of volunteers and the attractiveness of service. Based on the Bundeswehr's current recruitment success and Sweden's experience, the planned increase to 40, 000 volunteers annually by 2031 under the new voluntary service model is unlikely to be sufficient to reach the target. In this baseline scenario, the number of soldiers and reservists would increase by just under 50 percent by 2035 and by about 65 percent by 2040. Doubling the total number would require reducing dropout rates and motivating more people to commit to fixed-term service. Doubling the total number would require reducing dropout rates and motivating more people to commit to fixed-term service. In an optimistic scenario with highly attractive service conditions, the increase could reach nearly 80 percent by 2035, with the target strength achieved by 2039. In order to reach the target as desired in 2035, the number of volunteers performing military service would have to be increased more quickly and significantly, to 50, 000 in 2029. With more volunteers, the increase can be accelerated, but the attractiveness of the service is crucial for its sustainability [...] |
| Keywords: | Militär, Wehrdienst, Personalbeschaffung, Personalmarketing, Mitarbeiterbindung, Deutschland |
| JEL: | H56 J24 J45 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:331869 |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth S.; Nordhoff, Sina; Hardman, Scott |
| Abstract: | Meeting and sustaining a requirement that 100 percent of new passenger vehicle and light-duty truck sales be zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) requires everyone who acquires a new vehicle to only acquire ZEVs. This puts an onus on understanding resistance to ZEVs: who is resistant and why. These questions are addressed using survey data from repeated cross-sectional samples of all-car buying households in California in the years 2017, 2019, and 2021. Concepts of resistance are introduced and provisionally mapped onto Consideration, a multidimensional assessment of what consumers have already done vis-à-vis two types of ZEVs: battery and fuel cell electric vehicles (BEVs and FCEVs). Results indicate that active consumer resistance did not abate for BEVs over the study period, and that while it did abate slightly for FCEVs the probability of active resistance became less dependent on assessments of FCEV performance, fuel availability, or comparisons to conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles. Resistance based in political beliefs is extended from ZEVs to thepolicy requiring ZEVs using data from an additional survey of car-owning households in California from late 2023 to early 2024. The attitude that cost and convenience matter more in daily decisions than do environmental effects has a strong influence on the likeliness of disagreeing with the ZEV sales requirement. Conceptual shortcomings are noted in the mapping of resistance onto Consideration which limit the usefulness of Consideration as proxy for resistances going forward as is the lack direct measures of political affiliation in the extension to resistance to policy. A comprehensive set of suggestions to improve the direct measurement of different forms of resistance is provided. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Attitudes, Automobile ownership, Consumer preferences, Electric vehicles, Fuel cell vehicles, Surveys |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2zz6v9zk |
| By: | Maryam Farboodi; Nima Haghpanah; Ali Shourideh |
| Abstract: | We study how a monopolist’s use of consumer data for price discrimination affects welfare. To answer this question, we develop a model of market segmentation subject to residual uncertainty. We fully characterize when data usage monotonically increases or decreases welfare or when the effect is non-monotone. The characterization reduces the problem to one with only two demand curves, and gives a condition for the two-demand-curves case that highlights that information affects welfare in three distinct ways. In the non-monotone case, we provide tight bounds on the welfare effects of information and identify the best local direction for providing additional information. |
| JEL: | D42 D83 L12 L15 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34514 |
| By: | Bhagyashree, Katare; Yenerall, Jacqueline; Zhao, Shuoli; Wang, Xuejian |
| Abstract: | Technological advancements, such as online grocery shopping, have significantly transformed consumer retail environments and experiences. Effectively studying consumer behavior in these new environments requires the use of novel methodological approaches, which will also aid in the development of interventions to encourage healthy and sustainable consumption. This paper begins by providing an overview of the current literature on novel approaches to analyzing consumer behavior. To contribute to this literature, the paper also examines consumer decision-making pathways within online grocery shopping platforms. Specifically, the paper focuses on exploring the consumers' digital footprints, such as page visits, product additions and removals, and interactions with information labels to identify patterns and interests in consumer responses to healthy and sustainable consumption. The study investigates potential heterogeneities in consumers’ socio-demographics and attitudes, aiming to provide insights for shaping online shopping environments to promote healthy and sustainable food choices. Findings highlight the potential benefits of integrating consumer search tracking data with environment design to facilitate informed and conscious food choices. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344348 |
| By: | Peterson, Lisa; Nguyen Vo, Karen |
| Abstract: | The UC Berkeley Safe Transportation Research and Education Center (SafeTREC) has released the California Traffic Safety Survey 2025. The study was led by Ewald & Wasserman Research Consultants (E&W) and conducted on behalf of the California Office of Traffic Safety (OTS) and SafeTREC. The California Traffic Safety Survey has been conducted annually since 2010 to gain a better understanding of a range of traffic safety behaviors and to help inform traffic safety programs and public education campaigns. This year’s survey was conducted with an online panel of California drivers in all California counties for a total of 2, 319 respondents, with the majority of those surveyed (59.1% unweighted) coming from Southern California and falling within the 18-44 age range. Over 25 questions were created to address a variety of topics concerning road safety, including distracted driving, driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs, pedestrian and bicyclist safety, statewide safety campaigns, and driverless vehicles. First introduced to the California Traffic Safety Survey in 2022, respondents were also asked to rate five elements of increasing road safety that comprise the Safe System Approach. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, traffic safety, distracted driving, driving under the influence, pedestrian safety, bicyclist safety, driverless vehicles |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt95g4w441 |
| By: | Manoubia Ben Amara Tellili; Jamel Eddine Henchiri (RED-ISGG - Recherche, Entreprises et décision - ISGGB - Institut Supérieur de Gestion de Gabès (Université de Gabès)) |
| Abstract: | Some financial places worldwide are located in countries with dual cultures, Western and traditional. The ubiquitous participants in these financial markets are influenced by this dual affiliation, which can affect market reactions and efficiency. We analyse the weak form of informational efficiency in the Tunisian financial market, a place known for its cultural diversity. We study the behaviour of daily returns of the Tunis Stock Exchange index (Tunindex) over the period 1998-2019 by examining the effects of the Gregorian and lunar calendars. Next, we study the effects of the Islamic and civil calendars. Finally, we examine the interaction effects between the two types of calendars, which constitutes the originality of this paper.First, the weekday effect, the month effect, and the pre-holiday effect were analysed according to the Gregorian calendar. Then, the effects of the full and new moon phases and the Islamic months were tested using the lunar calendar. Finally, the effects of the interaction between the January effect and the Islamic months, as well as the effects related to all holidays regardless of their origin (religious or otherwise), were studied. Using both parametric and non-parametric tests, we find evidence of the weekend effect, the January effect, and the pre-holiday effect in the daily returns of Tunindex. Lunar calendar anomalies are detected, including an effect of the full moon (FM) on the returns of Tunindex and a significant positive and high effect of the Hijri month Rabi' al-Thani, followed by the months of Sha'ban and Ramadan. The estimation results also show that the pre-holiday effects of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha are not significant.The results of the combined effects reveal the persistence of the Thursday and Friday effect during the new moon phase. Similarly, the overlap of January with the months of Rabi' al-Thani, Ramadan, Sha'ban, and Shawwal eliminated the January effect on the returns of Tunindex, suggesting that the market has become more efficient. |
| Keywords: | pre-holiday effect, January effect, weekend effect, full moon effect, new moon effect, religious holiday effect, Islamic calendar, Hijri month effect, weekend effect January effect pre-holiday effect full moon effect new moon effect religious holiday effect Hijri month effect, EMH calendar anomalies Islamic calendar, EMH, calendar anomalies |
| Date: | 2025–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05312538 |
| By: | Altavilla, Carlo; Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Laeven, Luc; Kind, Thilo |
| Abstract: | We empirically examine the role of both official monetary policy announcements and policymakers’ speeches in the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets and the real economy in the euro area. Using intraday data covering a broad cross-section of financial assets, we construct the Euro Area Extended Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (EA-EMPD). We refine the identification of monetary policy surprises by exploiting granular, quote-level data on individual participants’ bid and ask submissions. This novel dataset expands the set of identifiable policy events by an order of magnitude relative to databases based solely on scheduled rate-setting meetings. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, speeches by euro area policymakers exert statistically and economically significant effects on asset prices across maturities, with magnitudes comparable to those observed following official policy announcements. Second, the transmission of speech-induced short-rate changes to the real economy closely mirrors that of policy decisions and combining both types of surprises significantly enhances the precision of statistical inference. Finally, when speeches are included in the measurement of policy surprises, the share of real-economy variance attributable to monetary policy increases fivefold, although its absolute magnitude remains relatively modest. JEL Classification: E43, E44, E52, E58, G14 |
| Keywords: | BVAR, event study, monetary policy surprise, speeches |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253157 |
| By: | Johannes Hagen; Amedeus Malisa; Andrea Schneider; Jana Schuetz |
| Abstract: | We study the behavioral effects of a large-scale, repeated, and personalized reminder. Our empirical setting is Sweden’s annual pension statement, which is rolled out region by region to all working-age individuals. Combining this variation with unique individual-level user data from the national pension dashboard, we find strong and immediate effects. Dashboard users' likelihood of making a pension forecast rises by 28 percentage points in the statement week-a fourfold increase-before returning to baseline within three weeks. Remarkably, similar spikes occur each year, indicating that repeated reminders consistently reactivate attention rather than losing their impact over time. Complementary regional data on actual pension claims show a 33% surge in weekly claims during the week the statement is sent out. |
| Keywords: | repeated nudge, retirement planning, pension dashboard, pension information, digital engagement |
| JEL: | D83 H55 J32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12287 |
| By: | Adnan Velic (Technological University Dublin) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the link between international inflation comovements, deviations from international inflation, and idiosyncratic inflation persistence. Our results indicate that stronger international comovements produce smaller, more persistent gaps between domestic and international inflation. We find that international inflation continues to exert a strong pull on domestic inflation despite notable fluctuations in international comovements. Detecting adjustment nonlinearities, we estimate the typical half-life of inflation shocks for relatively large, moderate, and small inflation deviations to be under 1 month, 2 months, and 18 months respectively. Geographic proximity, openness, exchange rate rigidity, international reserves, economic size, and uncertainty are found to be inversely related to the size of inflation gaps, due to their positive effects on international comovements. The impact on persistence, however, is ambiguous, as it is a function of not just the inflation gap, but also the speed of adjustment for a given size of the deviation. As the latter component covaries positively with most drivers, the net impact on persistence ultimately depends on the channel that dominates in the sample. |
| Keywords: | inflation dynamics, international comovements, inflation gaps, nonlinear adjustment, persistence, openness |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E5 F41 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1825 |
| By: | Mangole, Cool Dady; Mulungu, Kelvin; Kaghoma, Christian Kamala; Tschopp, Maurice; Kassie, Menale |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344264 |
| By: | Samaké, Said-Nour |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the rise of Over-the-Top (OTT) or Content and Application Provider (CAP) services reshapes the revenue and investment behavior of telecommunications operators in mobile and fixed broadband markets. A micro-founded theoretical framework links OTT engagement to operators’ pricing and investment incentives, and the predictions are tested empirically using a multi-country quarterly panel (2017 Q3–2024 Q2) combining operator and application-level data. The empirical strategy combines multi-way fixed effects, shift-share instrumental variables (SSIV), and dynamic System GMM estimation to address endogeneity and persistence. Results show that greater OTT usage significantly lowers the average revenue per connection (ARPC) in mobile markets. As users access identical OTT platforms through any network, perceived differentiation between operators vanishes. Price competition intensifies under flat-rate plans, preventing operators from monetizing growing data traffic and leading to revenue dilution. In contrast, the effect on fixed broadband ARPU remains weak, reflecting cost-based pricing and utility-type demand. On the investment side, rising OTT traffic increase capital expenditure (CapEx) as operators expand network capacity. In European mobile markets, investment follows an inverted-U pattern with market concentration, peaking at intermediate levels. Revenue losses from OTT usage are also less pronounced in moderately concentrated markets but stronger in fragmented ones. Overall, OTT expansion erodes monetization while compelling operators to invest to sustain rising traffic. This structural tension exposes a trade-off between static efficiency, constrained by declining revenues, and dynamic efficiency, preserved through continued investment. Policy frameworks should balance competition, pricing flexibility, and value sharing between connectivity and content providers. |
| Keywords: | Telecommunication, Two-sided market, Big Tech, CAP, OTT |
| JEL: | D71 L51 K23 L86 L93 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331303 |
| By: | Alexeev, Michael V.; Pyle, William; Wang, Jiaan |
| Abstract: | Although it has been speculated that the pain and dislocation of the early 1990s left Russians with an abiding distaste for the values that animated the transition from communism, the quantitative evidence for a lasting effect is thin. Drawing on a large, regionally representative survey from 2010, we show that in regions where the embrace of liberal values declined most in the early 1990s, support for democratic values remained weakest a generation later. Instrumenting for the change in values in the early 1990s with variables that capture Soviet-era economic distortions, we connect the vulnerability of a region to the market liberalization shock of 1992 to its diminished support for liberal political values in both shorter and longer runs, particularly for the older cohorts who would have experienced the early 1990s as adults. The endurance of the effect of the early 1990s economic shock stands in contrast to research from other contexts that the attitudinal effects of economic shocks experienced after early adulthood are short-lived. We speculate that a possible explanation for why the effect of the early 1990s endures in Russia was the amplification of the economic shock by an "identity shock" related to Russia's post-imperial loss of status. In support of this hypothesis, we use multiple waves of the Integrated Values Survey (IVS) to show that in Russia, the demand for democratic values declined in the first half of the 1990s relative to other former communist countries, opening a values gap that persisted through at least 2017. Lastly, we draw on a recent survey experiment to show that respondents primed to consider the economic collapse of the early 1990s, and to a lesser extent the dissolution of the Soviet Union, are less likely to embrace democratic values than those in a control group. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:333423 |
| By: | Tan, Fuli; Wang, Jingjing; De Steur, Hans; Fan, Shenggen |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:344020 |
| By: | Cheng, Haotian; Baldwin, Elizabeth; Ponce, Alex; Lien, Aaron; Henry, Adam; Soto, Jose R. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Political Economy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343564 |
| By: | Germán Coloma |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the behavior of the Argentine chocolate bar industry during the period 2019-2022. It mainly focuses on the level of competition between the firms in the industry, estimating conduct parameters that signal the existence of harder or softer competition. The estimations change considerably under different demand specifications, and also if we explicitly model product differentiation at the level of the supplying firms. This allows discarding extreme hypotheses such as perfect competition and collusion, and it slightly favors the existence of quantity (Cournot) competition over price (Bertrand) competition. |
| Keywords: | Chocolate bars, Argentina, competition, product differentiation, conduct parameters. |
| JEL: | C32 L13 L66 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:869 |
| By: | Ángel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | El pasado 17 de noviembre se celebró una reunión del Consejo de Política Fiscal y Financiera (CPFF) con un orden del día en principio rutinario que incluía la comunicación a las comunidades autónomas de las entregas a cuenta del año próximo y la aprobación de sus objetivos de déficit y deuda. En este marco, la ministra de Hacienda anunció que el Gobierno presentará a comienzos del año que viene una propuesta “completa” de reforma del Sistema de Financiación Autonómica (SFA) y avanzó algunas de sus características. En esta nota se resume el contenido del anuncio y se ofrece una valoración provisional del mismo, poniéndolo en el contexto del proceso de (intento de) reforma que se inició con el acuerdo con ERC para promover un sistema de financiación “singular” para Cataluña. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2025-33 |
| By: | Park, Sihyun; Vecchi, Martina; Jaenicke, Edward C.; Fan, Linlin; Liu, Yizao; Zhou, Pei |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343929 |
| By: | Nicolas Raineri (ICN Business School, CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine) |
| Abstract: | Non fondée, l'approche par générations renforce surtout les préjugés |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05379771 |
| By: | Rodger Campos |
| Abstract: | Índices de preços imobiliários são ferramentas essenciais para avaliação de risco, formulação de políticas econômicas e gestão de portfólios. Países desenvolvidos contam com uma diversidade de índices consolidados, ao passo que países em desenvolvimento, como Brasil, carecem de transparências nos dados, especialmente no segmento comercial. Neste artigo são apresentadas duas estratégias empíricas de estimação de índices de preços (regressão linear e random forest). Os resultados encontrados apontam que o índice calculado por regressão linear apresentou maior acurácia, volatilidade condizente com o mercado imobiliário e revisão do índice menos suscetível à desvios. Análises de heterogeneidade apresentam evidência de ciclos distintos quando se considera a segmentação dos ativos. |
| Keywords: | Mercado imobiliário corporativo; Índices de preços; Preços hedônicos; Random Forest; Regressão Linear |
| JEL: | R33 C43 C55 G12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:021816 |
| By: | Kauder, Björn |
| Abstract: | Deutschland sieht sich zahlreichen politischen Herausforderungen gegenüber. Wie die Bewältigung dieser Aufgaben priorisiert wird, zeigt sich in der Ausgabenpolitik. Nicht umsonst wird der Haushalt häufig als "in Zahlen gegossene Politik" bezeichnet. Welcher Stellenwert wird dem Sozialstaat eingeräumt? Wie wichtig ist das Bildungswesen oder die Landesverteidigung? Wie hoch sind die Verwaltungsausgaben und wie viel wird investiert? Antworten auf diese Fragen können im Rahmen eines internationalen Vergleichs der öffentlichen Ausgaben gesucht werden. Dieser Beitrag untersucht, wie sich die Ausgaben Deutschlands insgesamt und in verschiedenen Aufgabenbereichen in den Jahren 2001 bis 2023 entwickelt haben. Als Vergleichsregionen werden die Benelux-Länder, Österreich/Schweiz und die nordischen Länder herangezogen, welche hinsichtlich ihrer wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und kulturellen Prägung Deutschland relativ ähnlich sind. Es werden für verschiedene Aufgaben sowohl die Ausgabenanteile an den gesamten Ausgaben als auch die Ausgaben relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt betrachtet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die deutsche Staatsquote in weiten Teilen der 2010er Jahre noch deutlich unterhalb der nordischen Länder, der Benelux-Länder und des EU-Durchschnitts lag. In den Jahren der Corona-Pandemie konvergierten diese Werte jedoch auf das aktuelle Niveau von knapp 50 Prozent. Die Ländergruppe Österreich/Schweiz liegt mit 43 Prozent deutlich darunter. Mit 41 Prozent der gesamten Ausgaben wendet Deutschland am aktuellen Rand mehr für die soziale Sicherung auf als die Vergleichsgruppen, und somit insbesondere auch mehr als die nordischen Länder. Knapp die Hälfte dieser Mittel entfällt auf die Alterssicherung. Bei den Ausgaben für das Gesundheitswesen liegt Deutschland mit 16 Prozent der gesamten Ausgaben gemeinsam mit den Benelux- und den nordischen Ländern an der Spitze. Der Ausgabenanteil für die allgemeine öffentliche Verwaltung (ohne Staatsschuldentransaktionen) stieg in Deutschland kräftig auf zuletzt 11 Prozent an, womit man nun ebenfalls den höchsten Wert aufweist. Auf die Ausgaben für wirtschaftliche Angelegenheiten (u. a. Verkehr) entfielen im Jahr 2023 etwa 12 Prozent. Am Ende der Rangliste befindet sich Deutschland bei den Ausgaben für das Bildungswesen, mit zuletzt 9, 3 Prozent der Gesamtausgaben. Österreich und die Schweiz liegen um beinahe die Hälfte darüber. Für das Personal wandte Deutschland über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum weniger auf als die Vergleichsgruppen, zuletzt waren es 17 Prozent der gesamten Ausgaben. Auch bei den öffentlichen Investitionen lag Deutschland über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum am Ende des Feldes. Am aktuellen Rand entfallen 6, 2 Prozent der Gesamtausgaben auf Investitionen. |
| Abstract: | Germany faces numerous political challenges. How these tasks are prioritized is reflected in spending policy. It is not without reason that the budget is often referred to as "politics cast in numbers." How much importance is attached to the welfare state? How important are education and national defense? How high are administrative expenditures and how much is being invested? Answers to these questions can be found in an international comparison of public spending. This article examines how Germany's spending has developed overall and in various areas between 2001 and 2023. The Benelux countries, Austria/Switzerland, and the Nordic countries, which are relatively similar to Germany in terms of their economic development and cultural characteristics, are used as comparison regions. For various tasks, both the share of expenditure in total expenditure and expenditure relative to gross domestic product are considered. The results show that for much of the 2010s, Germany's public spending ratio was still well below that of the Nordic countries, the Benelux countries, and the EU average. During the years of the coronavirus pandemic, however, these figures converged to a current level of just under 50 percent. The Austria/Switzerland group of countries is significantly below this at 43 percent. At 41 percent of total expenditure, Germany currently spends more on social security than the comparison groups, and thus also more than the Nordic countries in particular. Almost half of these funds are allocated to old-age provision. In terms of healthcare expenditure, Germany ranks at the top alongside the Benelux and Nordic countries, accounting for 16 percent of total expenditure. The share of expenditure on general public administration (excluding government debt transactions) rose sharply in Germany to 11 percent, which is now also the highest figure. Expenditure on economic affairs (including transport) accounted for 12 percent in 2023. Germany is at the bottom of the ranking in terms of expenditure on education, with most recently 9.3 percent of total expenditure. Austria and Switzerland spend nearly 50 percent more. Germany spent less on personnel than the comparison groups over the entire observation period, most recently accounting for 17 percent of total expenditure. Germany also ranked at the bottom of the field in terms of public investment over the entire observation period. Currently, 6.2 percent of total expenditure is used for investment. |
| Keywords: | Öffentliche Ausgaben, Vergleich, Deutschland, Benelux-Staaten, Deutschsprachiger Raum, Nordeuropa |
| JEL: | H50 H10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:333409 |
| By: | Anusha Chari; Peter Blair Henry; Pablo Picardo |
| Abstract: | A billion people live more than two kilometers from an all-season road, the vast majority of whom reside in emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs), where the absence of paved roads hinders growth and development. Consistent with this shortage, we estimate that the median social rate of return to installing an additional kilometer of two-lane highway in EMDEs is 55 percent—roughly eight times the social rate of return on private capital in the US. The size and precision of the estimates vary widely across countries. But the eightfold excess social return on roads is, nevertheless, five times larger than the excess financial return on stocks in developing countries that once catalyzed the creation of emerging market equity as an asset class. The absolute and relative magnitudes of these excess returns thus suggest the possibility of substantial unrealized gains from reallocating developed-country savings toward public capital formation in EMDEs. We document these facts using a production function approach to estimate each country’s marginal product of public capital (MPX). We then pair these estimates with country-specific, hedonic road-construction prices (Px) from the Roads Cost Knowledge System to compute social rates of return (Rx). Because macro estimates face well-known identification and measurement challenges, we interpret our findings alongside complementary evidence on financial and micro-level returns. |
| JEL: | E22 H54 O16 O18 O47 R11 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34501 |
| By: | Ciriani, Stéphane; Jeanjean, François |
| Abstract: | The Draghi (2024) Report defines clear policies to restore the competitiveness of the EU through raising investment in innovation. The Report proposes "New EU Telecom Act" to update merger control through considering both static and dynamic effects rather than just static market shares or Herfindahl Index (HHI). Some authors have argued that Draghi's view on the consolidation's effects on investment is flawed. This article provides a review of the literature on the impact of mergers and mobile market concentration on price, investment, and quality. It also provides evidence that the evolution of mobile markets during the two last decades have changed the ways that mergers affect competition. It provides policy makers with relevant insights to form their views on the desirability of consolidation in the European wireless markets, in a context where the need for a new approach to mergers in the telecom sector has been outlined in the Draghi's report. |
| Keywords: | Competition, Investment, Telecom, Market structure, Mergers |
| JEL: | D25 D43 K21 L40 L51 L63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331262 |
| By: | Christopher Mantzaris; Ajda Fo\v{s}ner |
| Abstract: | This is the first scientific article since 2010 counting the words which are effective and permanent federal law in the United States (US) Code. The latest version of the US Code --published in 2025-- is the largest since 1991, encompassing over 24.4 million words. The low since 1991 was 1993 at roughly 15 million words. The word count grew in 30 out of 33 years. The average characters per word --potentially indicative of complexity-- grew even in all 33 years. The research also touches upon why it is undesirable for laws to be longer and longer and mentions possible remedies. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13747 |
| By: | Eddy Garcia (MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier, UM - Université de Montpellier); Stephany Eric |
| Abstract: | The complexity of decision-making in entrepreneurial environments, particularly during due diligence (DD), has been studied from various angles in the scientific literature. DD is a thorough evaluation process conducted by investors aimed at analyzing the financial, legal and operational information of a startup to assess the risks and viability of the project before making an investment decision. It is a mechanism that helps reduce uncertainty and information asymmetry (Kaplan and Stromberg, 2003) by providing an objective data base to guide decision-making. Traditionally, the analysis of these processes has focused on financial, legal and technical approaches, leaving aside the emotional and subjective dimensions of the interactions between Innovative Entrepreneurs (IEs) and Expert Business Angels (EBAs). Kaplan and Stromberg (2003) highlight that information asymmetry is a central problem in these interactions, as investors must evaluate projects at an early stage without having access to complete information. This uncertainty exacerbated by the lack of suitable tools to integrate emotional perceptions often leads to decision-making biases. Our research proposes to reduce this information asymmetry and uncertainty by taking into account subjective mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | decision making, uncertainty, priming, subjective perceptions, entrepreneurial finance |
| Date: | 2025–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05308308 |
| By: | Sebastián Rinaldi |
| Abstract: | El fraude académico se ha consolidado en las últimas décadas como una práctica que socava la integridad y confiabilidad del conocimiento, afectando tanto a estudiantes como a docentes e investigadores. En este documento de trabajo se examina exhaustivamente este fenómeno, a través de una descripción detallada de las diversas formas que asume y las motivaciones detrás de él, destacando su impacto negativo en la escritura, la credibilidad de las instituciones educativas y la confianza en las publicaciones. Además, se destaca por qué es fundamental evitarlo y se proponen estrategias para promover una producción científica ética. |
| Keywords: | fraude académico; escritura; investigación científica; publicaciones; ética. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:864 |
| By: | Herbert-Faulkner, Rowland Awadagin PhD; Macfarlane, Jane PhD; Frick, Karen Trapenberg PhD; Walker, Joan PhD |
| Abstract: | This policy brief presents a network analysis method that is accessible to local and regional transportation agencies using Mobiliti, a high-performance traffic simulator currently available for research purposes. However, we demonstrate Mobiliti’s practical applications for transportation agencies. Developed by research scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Mobiliti offers traffic assignment solutions and regional simulation capabilities, allowing for high-resolution, iterative exploration of road treatments and routing strategies. Analysts can manipulate network characteristics and vehicle behavior by adjusting parameters such as lane count, speed limit, and the percentage of vehicles, to dynamically optimize travel times. These capabilities can support transportation equity evaluations by giving network managers deeper insights into the mutual relationships between local and regional traffic dynamics and the resulting social impacts. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1bh4k6n5 |
| By: | Hümmer, Matthias |
| Abstract: | This conceptual paper develops an integrated framework for understanding how multi-dimensional project complexity management capabilities mediate competitive dynamics in Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) industries. Drawing on systematized narrative review of literature from 2020 to 2025, combined with foundational complexity theory, two complementary models are constructed: an ascending pathway depicting how emerging contractors systematically build technical, organizational, and environmental capabilities to achieve global EPC leadership; and a descending pathway characterizing how established leaders experience capability erosion when organizational and environmental complexity management capabilities deteriorate faster than technical knowledge persists. The core theoretical contribution demonstrates that sustainable EPC competitive advantage increasingly derives from the ability to simultaneously manage high technical, organizational, and environmental complexity, rather than technical knowledge alone. This insight is operationalized through a Technical-Organizational-Environmental (TOE) complexity framework, mapping how capability phases correspond to distinct complexity profiles and identifying critical junctures where strategic intervention can alter trajectory. The framework is applied diagnostically to the German Large Industrial Plant Manufacturing Industry (GLIPMI), identifying distinct subsectors in different phases of capability erosion and specifying sector-specific vulnerabilities and intervention points. Eight testable propositions are formulated connecting complexity management capabilities to competitive outcomes. The paper provides both theoretical grounding for capability-based competition in EPC markets and practical implications for firms, industry associations, and policymakers. However, it needs to be acknowledged that this framework represents theory-building rather than empirical validation; the propositions require future primary research to test causal mechanisms and boundary conditions. The analysis suggests that complexity management capability is necessary for sustained EPC leadership but may not be sufficient when confronted with asymmetric subsidization, pricing pressures, or structural financing disadvantages. |
| Date: | 2025–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fzr8x_v1 |
| By: | Juthong, Porapan; Saringkarnpoonperm, Suttiwit; Khemakongkanont, Chate |
| Abstract: | This study examines the environmental impact of global ICT expansion, focusing on CO² emissions across 173 countries from 2000 to 2021 using a one-step difference GMM. The findings reveal a two-phase relationship: Early-stage ICT deployment tends to increase emissions; however, as adoption expands, emissions are significantly reduced. The environmental impact of upgrading to 4G/5G networks is not uniform. For nations primarily reliant on 2G/3G infrastructure, the transition yields immediate environmental benefits. Conversely, in advanced ICT nations, the rollout may initially increase emissions, an effect that is later offset by substantial long-term reductions. The study concludes that ICT development does not automatically guarantee environmental benefits. Strategic policies—such as managing the full life cycle of ICT infrastructure from production to disposal, promoting renewable power in the ICT sector, and phasing out legacy networks— are essential to align ICT growth with decarbonization goals. |
| Keywords: | ICT, Mobile Cellular Network, CO² Emissions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331284 |
| By: | Balasubramanya, Soumya |
| Abstract: | In recent years, policy discourse in South Asia has increasingly focused on reducing pressure on groundwater use in irrigated agriculture and reducing irrigation energy subsidies, while also not making farmers worse off. In an environment where pricing water and energy is administratively and politically challenging, much hope is placed on the widespread adoption of irrigation technologies that improve irrigation efficiency. This paper highlights knowledge gaps in this discourse, to identify avenues where research could inform evidence-based decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344327 |
| By: | Matteo Gamalerio (University of Barcelona); Massimo Morelli (Bocconi University); Margherita Negri (University of St Andrews) |
| Abstract: | We show that polities using plurality rule to elect their policymakers are more likely to adopt more restrictive immigration policies than those using dual-ballot systems. Plurality rule provides stronger incentives for right-wing, anti-immigrant parties to run alone, as opposed to joining a coalition with other right-wing parties that offer a less restrictive immigration policy. We prove the result theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical results hold with sincere and strategic voters, with and without endogenous turnout, and can be extended to the comparison between plurality rule and proportional representation without majority bonuses in parliamentary elections. Empirically, we combine municipal-level data on migration-related expenditures and mayoral elections and establish causality using a regression discontinuity design. |
| Keywords: | electoral rules; immigration; salience |
| JEL: | D72 J24 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:econdp:2503 |
| By: | Zika, Gerd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hassemer, Theresa-Marie (IAB); Hummel, Markus (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Krebs, Bennet (BIBB); Maier, Tobias (BIBB); Mönnig, Anke (GWS); Schneemann, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Zenk, Johanna (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The ongoing development and integration of artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly shaping markets and workplaces both globally and within Germany. The present scenario analysis addresses the potential impacts of AI on the development of the German economy and labour market over a 15-year period. For this purpose, an AI scenario was developed and then compared to a reference scenario. In the AI scenario, the necessary infrastructure for AI development and integration must be in place, offering sufficient computing capacity in data centres. Furthermore, there will be different economic-sector-specific penetration paths and efficiency levels. Companies in the respective economic sectors have to invest upfront. Consequently, the impact of AI will vary depending on the economic sector. In some cases, material savings can be achieved. In others, productivity increases or new sales opportunities can be generated. In many economic sectors, a combination of these economic potentials is conceivable. It is evident that other countries are also engaged in the development and integration of AI. For the AI scenario, it is therefore assumed that the overall economic effects abroad will be similar to those in Germany, with the corresponding effects on German import prices. The results show that the implementation of AI can result in a substantial enhancement in added value, particularly over the medium and long term, while maintaining almost equivalent labour input as in the reference scenario. Based on the assumptions made, there is potential for annual economic growth to be 0.8 percentage points higher on average than in the reference scenario. Cumulatively over the next 15 years, 4.5 trillion euros in additional value added could be generated. In the AI scenario, total employment reaches a level similar to that of the reference scenario after 15 years. Nevertheless, there are clear shifts in the labour market. Certain economic sectors will experience an increase in labour demand, while others face a decline in employment. In the initial stages of accelerated AI development and integration, an overall higher labour demand can be expected. The higher labour demand is driven by the need to establish the necessary infrastructure, process and prepare data, and develop models. In the medium term, there will be a slightly lower demand for labour due to increased efficiency. However, towards the end of the projection period, there is potential to compensate for these medium-term employment losses. The development of new business models in particular will result in higher demand for labour. Overall, the opposing effects on employment will ultimately be balanced by each other. Hence, the assumptions made in the AI scenario do not exclusively lead to positive or negative effects on the labour market but indicate that there will be shifts in some economic sectors. In IT and information service activities, for example, the number of employed persons is after 15 years around 110, 000 higher than in the reference scenario. In contrast, the number of employed persons in business support activities is around 120, 000 lower. Nevertheless, a decline in employment numbers should not necessarily be interpreted as a deterioration in the labour market. In the long term, scarce human resources could be deployed more efficiently with the potential to reduce labour shortages in affected occupational groups. At the same time, it is to be expected that an increased use of AI will change the requirements within the workplace. The effect on employment by requirement level indicates that highly skilled jobs are particularly more affected by AI applications than by traditional, non-learning software." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Infrastrukturinvestitionen ; künstliche Intelligenz ; Anwendung ; Produktivitätseffekte ; Rechenzentrum ; qualifikationsspezifische Faktoren ; sektorale Verteilung ; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen ; Arbeitskräftebedarf ; Szenario ; Weiterbildungsbedarf ; Wertschöpfung ; 2023-2040 |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202523 |
| By: | Christopher D. Cotton |
| Abstract: | Markets systematically misprice interest rate changes around central bank announcements. I show that the strongest predictor of this mispricing is recent change in global interest rates. More specifically, a 1 percentage point increase in global short-term interest rates in the 15 days before a central bank meeting is associated with a 12-basis point surprise increase in short-term rates at that meeting. I demonstrate that this is the result of markets underreacting to signals coming from the global interest rate cycle. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy surprise; central bank; global interest rate cycle; predictability |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:102186 |
| By: | Yaa Akosa Antwi; Marion Aouad; Nathan Blascak |
| Abstract: | We examine the financial consequences of the 2007 California Fair Pricing Law, which places a price ceiling on hospital bills for financially vulnerable individuals. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in exposure to the law, we estimate its impact on individual financial distress. We find that the law reduces the likelihood of incurring non-medical debt in collections by 19.8 percent and the number of non-medical collections by 39 percent for an individual living in a county with average exposure in California. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that the number of delinquent accounts decreased for exposed individuals. Our results suggest hospital billing regulations can improve targeted individuals’ financial outcomes. |
| Keywords: | financial distress; consumer credit; hospitals; health care |
| JEL: | G51 I18 H75 |
| Date: | 2025–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102195 |
| By: | Papathanasopoulos, Athanasios; Kargas, Antonios D.; Varoutas, Dimitris |
| Abstract: | This study examines the Greek television market from 2018 to 2023 using the Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework, applying simultaneous equations to analyze the interactions among national TV broadcasters during this period. The findings indicate that market structure, measured by audience share, is significantly influenced by lagged advertising revenue and operational expenditure. Market conduct, proxied by content production and acquisition costs, is shaped by past advertising income and audience shares but remains constrained by the sector's continued reliance on traditional broadcasting and the allocation of ownership capital to other operational areas rather than content innovation. Market performance, measured by advertising revenue, is positively correlated with audience share, investment in content, and digital visibility, yet remains constrained by persistent inefficiencies in operational spending. During the period under review, the market evolved from moderate (2018–2020) to low (2021–2023) concentration, with ownership concentration exhibiting limited influence on either conduct or performance. Despite ongoing financial challenges and continued reliance on traditional broadcasting models, the emerging link between website traffic and advertising revenue points to a gradual shift toward digitalization. As one of the first studies to apply a simultaneous-equations SCP model to the Greek television sector, this research contributes novel insights into the structural dynamics, strategic constraints, and performance outcomes shaping legacy media in an evolving digital landscape. |
| Keywords: | Greek TV market, Structure-Conduct-Performance, SCP, media concentration, digital transformation, media economics, television industry |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331296 |
| By: | Nouve, Yawotse; Zheng, Yuqing; Zhao, Shuoli; Kaiser, Harry M.; Dong, Diansheng |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Consumer/Household Economics, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:343798 |
| By: | Daniel Bird; Alexander Frug |
| Abstract: | Mid- and low-level managers play a significant role within the organizational hierarchy, far beyond monitoring. It is often their responsibility to respond to opportunities and threats within their units by adjusting their subordinates’ assignments. Most such managers, however, lack the authority to adapt their subordinates’ wages. In- stead, they rely on other, more restrictive incentive schemes. We study the interaction between a front-line manager and worker, and characterize the “managerial style” as a function of the players’ relative patience and information. |
| Keywords: | front-line management , perishable incentives , asymmetric discounting |
| JEL: | D21 D82 D86 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1929 |
| By: | James Bono |
| Abstract: | Security operations centers (SOCs) face a persistent challenge: efficiently triaging a high volume of user-reported phishing emails while maintaining robust protection against threats. This paper presents the first randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating the impact of a domain-specific AI agent - the Microsoft Security Copilot Phishing Triage Agent - on analyst productivity and accuracy. Our results demonstrate that agent-augmented analysts achieved up to 6.5 times as many true positives per analyst minute and a 77% improvement in verdict accuracy compared to a control group. The agent's queue prioritization and verdict explanations were both significant drivers of efficiency. Behavioral analysis revealed that agent-augmented analysts reallocated their attention, spending 53% more time on malicious emails, and were not prone to rubber-stamping the agent's malicious verdicts. These findings offer actionable insights for SOC leaders considering AI adoption, including the potential for agents to fundamentally change the optimal allocation of SOC resources. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13860 |
| By: | Baverman, Michelle |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between transit-oriented development (TOD), gentrification, and commuting behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1990 to 2023. TOD has been promoted as a strategy to reduce automobile dependence and greenhouse gas emissions by concentrating housing and jobs near high-quality transit. Critics, however, argue that TOD may accelerate gentrification and displacement, reducing transit ridership if higher-income households replace transit-dependent residents. Using decennial Census data (1990, 2000) and American Community Survey estimates (2010–2023), all standardized to 2010 block group geographies, I constructed a Baseline Vulnerability Index to identify neighborhoods susceptible to gentrification and a Gentrification Change Index to measure shifts in demographic, income, education, and housing over time. These measures were linked to changes in commute mode shares to assess whether neighborhood change near TOD has influenced transit and car commuting. Findings indicate that TOD station areas gentrified more rapidly than other neighborhoods: 34% of vulnerable block groups in station areas gentrified between 1990 and 2019, compared with 26% in one-mile buffer zones and 20% beyond one mile. Gentrifying TOD neighborhoods also demonstrated a disproportionate increase in new transit commuters between 2010 and 2019. However, post-2020 data reveal sharper declines in transit commuting and modest increases in car commuting in gentrifying TODs, reflecting the impact of remote work and differences in how higher- and lower-income households use transit. The results suggest that while TOD-related gentrification may support transit commuting in some contexts, in a post-COVID world, it poses risks for long-term equity outcomes and overall ridership resilience. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transit oriented development, gentrification, displacement, commuting, mode choice, low income groups, upper income groups |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9bt7x4xx |
| By: | Michael Ball; Paul Cheshire; Christian Hilber; Xiaolun Yu |
| Abstract: | We explore the determinants of the speed with which residential development sites are built-out after construction starts. Based on a new model of developer behaviour in local markets, we use an instrumental variable and fixed effects empirical strategy to analyse a unique dataset of the near universe of the 1996-2015 residential developments in England. We find that positive local demand shocks accelerate building; less so in areas (i) with more restrictive local planning, (ii) that are more built-up, and (iii) where competition is lower. This suggests the slow site build-out rate in England results from both market and policy failures. |
| Keywords: | Construction lag; Housing demand; Housing Supply; Land-use regulatioon |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_100 |
| By: | Sharp, Jared; Dietz, Simon; Ashraf, Shafaq; Chiu, Hayli |
| Abstract: | The TPI Centre has assessed the transition plans of 10 of the world’s largest, publicly listed oil and gas companies (five from Europe and five from North America) using the new Net Zero Standard for Oil & Gas. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130323 |
| By: | Philip Fliegel; Achim Hagen; Nicolas Koch; Nolan Ritter |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of carbon pricing on household finance using European microdata on loans for internal combustion engine vehicles. Exploiting cross-country variation in the same car models with a difference-in-differences design, we find that banks respond to Germany's carbon price announcement by raising interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, with larger increases for loans on fuel-intensive vehicles and for longer maturities. Banks also shorten loan maturity, reduce amounts, and shift to linear repayments, while households choose more fuel-efficient new cars. Captive banks respond more strongly than commercial banks. Collateral and default risk channels jointly explain these adjustments, highlighting household finance as a key transmission channel of climate policy. |
| Keywords: | credit pricing, climate policies, climate transition risk |
| JEL: | G21 G50 G51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12288 |