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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Damián Pierri (Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. CONICET–Universidad de Buenos Aires. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP). Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Domenico Ferraro (Arizona State University. Department of Economics.) |
| Abstract: | The paper develops a business cycle model with multi-plant firms featuring minimum labor requirements that generate occasionally binding capacity constraints, implying state-dependent and nonlinear effects of labor tax changes on aggregate hours. |
| Keywords: | Capacity utilization; Labor taxes; Aggregate hours elasticity; Multi-plant firms; Hours constraints |
| JEL: | E22 E23 E24 E32 E62 H24 H25 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ake:iiepdt:2024-96 |
| By: | Tanweer Akram; Mahima Yadav |
| Abstract: | This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Swedish government bond (SGB) yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term SGB yields, after controlling for other macroeconomic and financial variables, such as consumer price inflation, the growth of industrial production, the stock price index, the exchange rate of the Swedish krona, and the balance sheet of Sweden’s central bank, Sveriges Riksbank. It applies an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach using monthly data to model SGB yields across the Treasury yield curve. The results of the estimated models show that the short-term interest rate has a marked influence on the long-term SGB yield. Such findings reaffirm John Maynard Keynes’s view that the central bank’s monetary policy affects long-term government bond yields through the current short-term interest rate. It also shows that the interest rate behavior observed in Sweden is in concordance with empirical patterns discerned in previous studies related to government bond yields in both advanced countries and emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | Swedish Government Bonds; Bond Yields; Short-term Interest Rate; Inflation; Sveriges Riksbank; Sweden |
| JEL: | E43 E50 E58 E60 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1048 |
| By: | Guerrazzi, Marco |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I develop a frictionless two-sector optimal growth model with endogenous labour supply in which the non-reproducible factor can be employed only in the production of consumption goods. From a theoretical point of view, I show that in this setting the optimal allocation of labour is constant over time, whereas its actual utilization relies on the availability of a convex technology. In parallel, a convex technology in the sector of investment goods is instead sufficient for the determinacy of meaningful equilibrium paths. Furthermore, calibrating the model to the US economy, I show that such a two-sector economy smooths the complementarity between the marginal propensities to consume and to save, and it also able to replicate the countercyclical (procyclical) pattern of the relative price of capital goods (real wages). |
| Keywords: | Capital accumulation; Investment; Consumption; Two-sector growth model; Labour supply; Relative price of capital goods; Real Wage. |
| JEL: | C61 E21 E22 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126101 |
| By: | Forkuo, Gabriel Osei; Emmanuel, Osei-Dwomoh; Nkuah, Joseph Kofi |
| Abstract: | This study explored the critical relationship between corporate governance practices and the incidence of bank failures in Ghana, a key issue for the nation's financial stability and economic resilience. While Ghana's banking sector has undergone significant modernization, recent high-profile bank failures have cast doubt on the effectiveness of existing governance and regulatory frameworks. This research quantitatively investigates how core governance factors—specifically board composition, risk management, and regulatory compliance—influence bank stability. Analyzing data from 30 banks, the study employs descriptive, correlation, and regression analyses to assess governance practices and their linkage to financial distress indicators. The findings reveal a significant relationship between board independence, robust risk management, regulatory compliance, and a reduced likelihood of bank failure. Notably, a higher proportion of independent directors and stronger adherence to regulatory and corporate governance codes are associated with lower non-performing loan ratios and fewer regulatory interventions. These results highlight persistent gaps in governance that contribute to financial distress and underscore the necessity of strengthening Ghana's banking oversight. The study provides valuable, evidence-based insights for policymakers, regulators, and banking institutions on enhancing governance frameworks to prevent future crises and foster a more resilient financial sector. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance, Bank Failures, Financial Stability, Board Composition, Regulatory Compliance, Risk Management, Ghana |
| JEL: | E3 E31 E32 E52 E58 E6 E61 E63 E66 G2 G20 G21 G22 G23 G24 G28 H5 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126358 |
| By: | Eric Tymoigne |
| Abstract: | Drumetz and Pfister make several claims about the inadequacy and fallacies of Modern Money Theory (MMT) and conclude that MMT is nothing more than a political manifesto; there are no theoretical and empirical foundations behind it. This paper addresses this last point by focusing on the fiscal and monetary policy aspects of their criticisms. Contrary to what they claim, MMT is backed by a large body of empirical evidence, a rich institutional analysis, and a well-developed theoretical framework (including mathematical models). MMT provides a detailed analysis of the coordination between the fiscal and monetary branches of government, emphasizes that fiscal deficits are a stylized fact, and uses theoretical tools grounded in institutional realities to explain this stylized fact. In line with a large body of work, MMT concludes that fiscal policy, the provision of an elastic currency, and financial regulations have contributed to economic stability and growth; however government involvement can be improved by changing the policymaking praxis. MMT also concludes that fine-tuning of the economy via monetary policy is not effective and does not attribute the "great moderation" to better monetary management. Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 04, 2022. |
| Keywords: | Modern Money Theory; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Policy Coordination; Public Debt Sustainability |
| JEL: | E12 E58 E61 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1061 |
| By: | Venkat Hariharan Asha; Ajay Ojha; Sutharson T; Lekha S. Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | Using high-frequency data, the paper analyzes the link between public infrastructure investment and private corporate investment in India for the decade ending 2023–24. We adopt the ARDL model to investigate the existence of cointegration and find strong evidence of the crowding-in of private corporate investment both in the long- and short-run analyses. Moreover, long-term real interest rates and foreign direct investment provide higher estimates of crowding-in vis-Ã -vis short-term real interest rates and foreign portfolio investment, which underscore greater emphasis on systemic and fundamental factors (as compared to transitory factors) and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The recent thrust on deregulation and sustained enhancement in capital expenditure augur well in providing the necessary ambience to boost private investment and economic growth in the medium term. |
| Keywords: | Public Infrastructure Investment; Private Corporate Investment; Crowding-in effects; fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E62 C32 H6 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1097 |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maciej Grodzicki; Ioannis Gutzianas (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marcus How; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Dzmitry Kruk; Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Benedetta Locatelli; Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Emilia Penkova-Pearson; Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sara Rehak; Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marko Sošić; Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | CESEE stands at a crucial turning point, as labour shortages, the inflation shock and geopolitical developments potentially force a shift from a low-wage, export-driven model toward one based on investment, innovation and higher productivity. |
| Keywords: | CESEE Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, EU, business cycle, economic sentiment, euro area, convergence, labour markets, unemployment, Russia-Ukraine war, commodity prices, inflation, price controls, trade disruptions, renewable energy, gas, electricity, monetary policy, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2025 |
| By: | Nikolay Gospodinov; Esfandiar Massoumi |
| Abstract: | Policy makers express their views and decisions via the lens of a particular model or theory. But since any model is a highly stylized representation of the unknowable object of interest, all these models are inherently misspecified, and the resulting ambiguity injects uncertainty in the decision-making process. We argue that entropy-based aggregation is a convenient device to confront this uncertainty and summarize relevant information from a set of candidate models and forecasts. The proposed aggregation tends to robustify the decision-making process to various sources of risks and uncertainty. We find compelling evidence for the advantages of entropy-based aggregation for forecasting inflation. |
| Keywords: | model uncertainty; model aggregation; forecast combination; robust policy |
| JEL: | C52 C53 E37 G11 |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:101967 |
| By: | Boughabi, Houssam |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a stochastic Keynesian model linking inflation, unemployment, and GDP. Inflation follows a fractional Brownian motion, capturing persistent shocks, while a temporal convolutional network forecasts conditional paths, allowing machine learning to account for nonlinear interactions and long-memory effects. Unemployment responds conditionally to inflation thresholds, permitting involuntary joblessness, while GDP depends on both variables, reflecting aggregate demand and labor market frictions. The model is applied to Pakistan, simulating macroeconomic dynamics under alternative policy scenarios. We demonstrate that sustained growth is possible even under persistent inflation, reinforcing the empirical relevance of Keynesian theory in contemporary macroeconomic analysis and highlighting the value of machine learning for policy evaluation. |
| Keywords: | Stagflation, Fractional Brownian Motion, Temporal Convolutional Networks, Keynesian Policy, Pakistan |
| JEL: | C22 C45 E24 E31 E37 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126294 |
| By: | Fasheng Xu; Xiaoyu Wang; Wei Chen; Karen Xie |
| Abstract: | The strategic choice of model "openness" has become a defining issue for the foundation model (FM) ecosystem. While this choice is intensely debated, its underlying economic drivers remain underexplored. We construct a two-period game-theoretic model to analyze how openness shapes competition in an AI value chain, featuring an incumbent developer, a downstream deployer, and an entrant developer. Openness exerts a dual effect: it amplifies knowledge spillovers to the entrant, but it also enhances the incumbent's advantage through a "data flywheel effect, " whereby greater user engagement today further lowers the deployer's future fine-tuning cost. Our analysis reveals that the incumbent's optimal first-period openness is surprisingly non-monotonic in the strength of the data flywheel effect. When the data flywheel effect is either weak or very strong, the incumbent prefers a higher level of openness; however, for an intermediate range, it strategically restricts openness to impair the entrant's learning. This dynamic gives rise to an "openness trap, " a critical policy paradox where transparency mandates can backfire by removing firms' strategic flexibility, reducing investment, and lowering welfare. We extend the model to show that other common interventions can be similarly ineffective. Vertical integration, for instance, only benefits the ecosystem when the data flywheel effect is strong enough to overcome the loss of a potentially more efficient competitor. Likewise, government subsidies intended to spur adoption can be captured entirely by the incumbent through strategic price and openness adjustments, leaving the rest of the value chain worse off. By modeling the developer's strategic response to competitive and regulatory pressures, we provide a robust framework for analyzing competition and designing effective policy in the complex and rapidly evolving FM ecosystem. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.15200 |
| By: | Eiblmeier, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | This paper uses German microdata to test whether the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) spurred bank lending to non-financial firms. Bank-firm loan data allow me to control for loan demand at firm level. The share of bonds in banks’ total assets before QE serves as treatment proxy. While the effects are positive and statistically significant, they are small: Increasing the bond/asset share in a firm’s lender bank by one standard deviation increases the de-trended outstanding bilateral loan volume by 3-5% of its within-sample mean. At firm level, no unambiguous effect can be observed. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional monetary policy, Germany, bank lending, portfolio rebalancing, panel regression. |
| JEL: | C23 E51 E52 G11 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126431 |
| By: | Lukyanov, Georgy; Ablyatifov, Emin |
| Abstract: | We embed honesty-based reputation into a Ramsey taxation framework with com-petitive firms and households. In a static benchmark with exogenous trust, there is a sharp cutoff below which the optimal policy sets no taxes and above which the optimal tax take rises with trust. In the dynamic model, beliefs evolve through noisy public monitoring of delivered public goods; the planner’s problem is well posed, the value is increasing and convex in beliefs, and optimal revenue is monotone in reputation with a trust threshold that is weakly below the static cutoff. With multiple broad instruments and symmetric monitoring, the dynamic force acts through the total revenue scale; the tax mix is indeterminate along an equivalence frontier. Blackwell-improving monitor-ing and greater type persistence expand the optimal scale and shift the trust threshold inward. The model delivers clear policy prescriptions for building fiscal capacity in low-trust environments and testable links between measured trust, verifiability, and revenue. |
| Keywords: | Optimal taxation; Government reputation; Ramsey problem; Credibility; Fiscal capacity |
| JEL: | H21 H30 E62 D82 C73 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131041 |
| By: | Esteban Garcia-Miralles (Banco de Espana); Maximilian Freier (European Central Bank); Sara Riscado (OECD); Chrysa Leventi (European Commission); Alberto Mazzon (European Commission); Glenn Abela (Central Bank of Malta); Laura Boyd (Central Bank of Ireland); Baiba Brusbarde (Latvijas Banka); Marion Cochard (Banque de France); David Cornille (National Bank of Belgium); Emanuele Dicarlo (Banca d’Italia); Ian Debattista (5Central Bank of Malta); Mar Delgado-Tellez (Banco de Espana); Mathias Dolls (ifo Institute); Ludmila Fadejeva (Latvijas Banka); Maria Flevotomou (Bank of Greece); Florian Henne (Banque centrale du Luxembourg); Alena Harrer-Bachleitner (Office of the Austrian Fiscal Council); Viktor Jaszberenyi-Kiraly (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); Max Lay (ifo Institute); Laura Lehtonen (De Nederlandsche Bank); Mauro Mastrogiacomo (De Nederlandsche Bank); Tara McIndoe-Calder (Central Bank of Ireland); Mathias Moser (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Martin Nevicky (National Bank of Slovakia); Andreas Peichl (ifo Institute); Myroslav Pidkuyko (Banco de Espana); Mojca Roter (Banka Slovenije); Frederique Savignac (Banque de France); Andreja Strojan Kastelec (Banka Slovenije); Vaidotas Tuzikas (Lietuvos bankas); Nikos Ventouris (Bank of Greece); Lara Wemans (Banco de Portugal) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of "fiscal drag" - the increase in tax revenue that occurs when nominal tax bases grow but nominal parameters of progressive tax legislation are not updated accordingly - across 21 European countries using a microsimulation approach. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities, showing that the progressivity built in each country's personal income tax system induces elasticities around 1.7-2 for many countries, indicating a potential for large fiscal drag effects. We unpack these elasticities to show stark heterogeneity in their underlying mechanisms (tax brackets or tax deductions and credits), across income sources (labor, capital, self-employment, public benefits), and across the individual income distribution. Second, we extend the analysis beyond these elasticities to study fiscal drag in practice between 2019 and 2023, incorporating observed income growth and legislative changes. We quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag and the extent to which government policies have offset it, either through indexation or other reforms. Our results provide new insights into the fiscal and distributional effects of fiscal drag in Europe, as well as useful statistics for modeling public finances. |
| Keywords: | personal income tax, inflation, indexation, bracket creep |
| JEL: | D31 H24 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202507 |
| By: | Süß, Juliana; Wilson, Robert Sam |
| Abstract: | Der Krieg in der Ukraine hat deutlich gemacht, wie wichtig weltraumbasierte Kommunikations- und Aufklärungsdienste für die eigene Verteidigung sind. Europa baut seine Verteidigungsfähigkeiten aus und investiert vermehrt in Weltraumfähigkeiten, hinkt jedoch, was Letztere angeht, im weltweiten Vergleich hinterher. Die Republik Polen ist ein relativer Neuling im Weltraum. Das Land ist bestrebt, eigene Weltraumfähigkeiten aufzubauen, und legt den Fokus dabei auf Erdbeobachtung und die Erfassung der Weltraumlage. Dies kann helfen, regionale Fähigkeitslücken zu schließen. Zudem könnten Möglichkeiten zur bilateralen wirtschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit mit Deutschland entstehen. |
| Keywords: | Weltraum, Weltraumfähigkeiten, Polen, Deutschland, EU, NATO, Nato, Europäische Weltraumorganisation, ESA, USA, Russland, Ukraine, Krieg in der Ukraine, Satelliten, Satellitensysteme, Angriffe auf Satellitensysteme, Schutz von Satellitensystemen, Aufklärung, Erdbeobachtung, Erdbeobachtungssatelliten, Raumfahrtindustrie, Weltraumlageerfassung, Space Situational Awareness, SSA, EU-System zur Beobachtung und Verfolgung von Objekten im Weltraum, EU Space Surveillance and Tracking, EU SST, polnische Weltraumagentur, POLSA, "Schutzschild Ost", Galileo, Copernicus, Odin's Eye II, Weltraumdiplomatie |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:329907 |
| By: | Murakami, Ryu (Chiba Institute of Science) |
| Abstract: | This proof-of-concept study introduces the Social Morphology Ball, a framework for visualizing multivariate social data as three-dimensional morphological structures. The method normalizes variables using the median and interquartile range (IQR), followed by nonlinear compression with a hyperbolic tangent function to reduce the impact of extreme outliers. Each normalized variable is mapped onto spherical basis functions, transforming numerical relationships into geometric deformations—bulges or concavities—on a sphere. When all variables align with their long-term medians, the model yields a perfect sphere representing a morphologically neutral, structurally balanced state. Implemented in Python, the pipeline automates normalization, shape generation, and visualization, exporting results in STL, PNG, and GIF formats. Applied to Japanese national statistics from 2015–2023, the model captured temporal variations in the balance and distortion of societal indicators through intuitive 3D forms. By interpreting data as morphology rather than numbers, this approach extends social data visualization into a sensory and cognitive domain, providing a conceptual foundation for morphological visualization of social phenomena and potential applications in education, policy, and data-driven art. |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fvsby_v1 |
| By: | Philippe Jean-Baptiste (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The article explores recent advances in artificial intelligence in the field of machine translation. Based on technologies such as Google Translate, DeepL or Whisper, AI now allows you to translate texts, voices, and even conversations in real time, with an unprecedented degree of fluidity and precision. Three main axes are developed: (1) automated written translation and its progress related to multilingual deep learning, (2) the rise of simultaneous voice translation in services, videoconferences or mobile assistance, and (3) video translation (subtitling, dubbing), which transforms uses in media, education or e-learning. Beyond the technical prowess, the article questions the cultural, ethical and professional implications of this new linguistic ubiquity. It warns of the risks of decontextualization, bias or standardization, while highlighting the contributions to inclusion, international cooperation and language learning. |
| Abstract: | L'article explore les avancées récentes de l'intelligence artificielle dans le domaine de la traduction automatique. En s'appuyant sur des technologies comme Google Translate, DeepL ou Whisper, l'IA permet aujourd'hui de traduire des textes, des voix, et même des conversations en temps réel, avec un degré de fluidité et de précision inédit. Trois grands axes sont développés : (1) la traduction écrite automatisée et ses progrès liés au deep learning multilingue, (2) l'essor de la traduction vocale simultanée dans les services, les visioconférences ou l'assitance mobile, et (3) la traduction vidéo (sous-titrage, doublage), qui tranforme les usages dans les médias, l'éducation ou le e-learning. Au-delà des prouesses techniques, l'article interroge les implciations culturelles, éthiques et professionnelles de cette nouvelles ubiquité linguistique. Il met en garde contre les risques de décontextualisation, de biais ou d'uniformisation, tout en soulignant les apports pour l'inclusion, la coopération internationale et l'apprentissage des langues. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Machine Translation Content, Multilingual management, Traduction automatique Contenu, Management multilingue, Intelligence artificielle, GPT-4o, Google Translate, DeepL |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05308776 |
| By: | Jeffrey H. Bergstrand (University of Notre Dame); Matthew W. Clance (University of Pretoria); Joao Santos Silva (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | In many applications, the outcome of interest is nonnegative and has a mixed distribution with a long right-tail and a mass point at zero. Applications using this sort of data are typical in health and international economics but are also found in many other areas. The lower bound at zero implies that models for this kind of data are generally heteroskedastic, implying that the regressors will have different effects on different regions of the conditional distribution. The traditional way to learn about heterogeneous effects in conditional distributions is to use quantile regression. However, the conditional quantiles of outcomes of this kind cannot be given by smooth functions of the regressors because the mass point implies that some quantiles will be identically zero for certain values of the regressors. This complicates the estimation of quantile regressions for data of this kind and the interpretation of the estimated parameters. As an alternative, we can estimate Poisson-based expectile regressions using Efron’s (1992) asymmetric maximum- likelihood approach. After highlighting the problems that akict estimation of quantile regressions for this kind of data, we brieXy introduce expectile regression as introduced by Newey and Powell (1987) and show how they can be estimated with nonnegative data using Efron’s (1992) approach. We then introduce the appmlhdfe command and illustrate its use. |
| Date: | 2025–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:lsug25:11 |
| By: | Custers, Gijs |
| Abstract: | The role of media in producing territorial stigma is a central concern for urban researchers. This study investigates how one of the most stigmatised areas in the Netherlands, the Bijlmer, has been portrayed in newspaper media over a period of 35 years, and how this portrayal relates to structural changes in the district. The concepts of core and event stigma are employed to understand the temporal dimensions of stigma production. The corpus includes 22, 934 articles from the five largest Dutch newspapers that referenced the Bijlmer since 1990. Hierarchical topic modelling and sentiment analysis are used to detect topical representations of the Bijlmer. The findings indicate that in the 1990s two news peaks regarding the Bijlmer crash have been important in raising its (inter)national status, whereas the Bijlmer has also suffered from core stigmatisation on various crime and social issues. In addition, the findings suggest an intricate relation between structural changes in the Bijlmer and media attention. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating the relevance of core and event stigma, employing novel techniques in research on territorial stigma, and investigating the relation between structural neighbourhood conditions and media representation. |
| Date: | 2025–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2dnmh_v1 |
| By: | Lacher, Wolfram |
| Abstract: | The European Commission, Italy, and Greece are seeking to curb irregular migration through Libya. These efforts come at a time when several aspects of European Union (EU) migration policy in Libya must be acknowledged as having failed. This is particularly true of attempts to improve conditions in detention centres, and the situation of migrant workers and refugees more broadly. Most recently, a campaign by Libyan authorities against what they portrayed as EU plans to permanently settle migrants in the country showed that European policy is provoking considerable backlash. As the softer components of this policy have reached an impasse, it has been stripped to its hard core, namely arrangements with Libyan security actors to prevent departures, as well as support for interceptions at sea and returns to countries of origin. These measures are inextricably tied to Libya's system of arbitrary detention, which serves criminal interests. European attempts to disavow this system have been unconvincing and are preventing a serious reckoning with the political costs involved. |
| Keywords: | Libya, irregular migration, International Organization for Migration (IOM), United Nations (UN), arms embargo, Khalifa Haftar, European Union, European Commission, Italy, Greece, migrant workers, refugees, interceptions at sea, returns to countries of origin, Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC), Department for Combating Illegal Migration (DCIM) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:329916 |
| By: | Sarullo, Nicolas (University of California at Berkeley); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Deryugina, Tatyana (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Hodson, James (AI for Good); Sologoub, Ilona (VoxUkraine); Fedyk, Anastassia (University of California at Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | Using household survey data on expenditures and incomes, we construct an objective measure of corruption in the public sector for a broad spectrum of countries. Specifically, we focus on the consumption-income gap for public sector workers relative to private sector workers to gauge the extent of hidden income (bribes) in the government. After validating our data and documenting properties of the consumption-income gap, we compare our measure with popular corruption perception indices. We find that i) the relationship between our measure and the alternatives is nonlinear; ii) available indices appear to be only weakly (and sometimes “wrongly”) correlated with the consumption-income gap at high frequencies; iii) the available indices appear to have a low weight on the relative consumption-income gap in the public sector. |
| Keywords: | consumption, public sector, bribery, corruption, wage premium |
| JEL: | D73 H1 J3 J4 O1 P2 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18195 |
| By: | Lemos, Sara (University of Leicester); Portes, Jonathan (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | We study the labour market impact of immigration to the United Kingdom, focusing on the large inflows following the 2004 EU enlargement. Using the Lifetime Labour Market Database (LLMDB)—a longitudinal 1% sample of National Insurance records—we provide the first analysis of immigration’s effects on employment and wages based on high-quality administrative microdata. Exploiting individual, area and time fixed effects, as well as area-time, individual-time and individual-area fixed effects, we reduce endogeneity concerns that have limited previous work. We find limited aggregate impacts, but distributional consequences: existing immigrants—particularly those who were young or low paid—experienced modest negative employment effects, while natives faced little evidence of displacement. For wages, impacts were mixed: existing immigrants overall gained, but low-paid immigrants lost. The results suggest labour market adjustment operated through both substitution and complementarities across groups. More broadly, we provide a methodological framework for analysing the much larger and more diverse post-2021 immigration flows. |
| Keywords: | wages, employment, immigration, Central and Eastern Europe, UK |
| JEL: | J22 C23 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18199 |
| By: | Emilia Del Bono; Angus Holford; Tommaso Sartori |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of academic rank using data on the entire population of children enrolled in primary schools in Aberdeen, Scotland, in 1962. Exploiting quasi-random variation in peer group composition, we estimate the causal impact of rank on academic performance, noncognitive development, parental investment, and long-term outcomes. Higher rank improves achievement on the high-stakes eleven-plus examination and strengthens internalizing skills (traits related to self-concept and confidence), suggesting that rank effects operate primarily through students' self-perception. Using a follow-up survey conducted forty years later, we find that rank raises educational attainment, particularly for girls, while long-term income gains emerge only among boys. The gender gap in long-run effects likely reflects historical barriers to women's access to higher education and skilled employment during this period. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.11973 |
| By: | Alexander McFarlane |
| Abstract: | We derive a slippage-aware toxicity condition for on-chain liquidations executed via a constant-product automated market maker (CP-AMM). For a fixed (constant) liquidation incentive $i$, the familiar toxicity frontier $\nu |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.10171 |
| By: | Daniela Balutel (York University) |
| Abstract: | This study explores public perceptions of Bitcoin prices and the factors shaping them using data from the Bitcoin omnibus survey conducted by the Bank of Canada from 2017 to 2021. Through regression analysis and Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition, I examine differences in price expectations between Bitcoin owners and nonowners. Additionally, I investigate how demographic characteristics, Bitcoin knowledge, and financial literacy influence these views. My findings reveal significant disparities, with owners consistently more optimistic about future prices than nonowners. The Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that only a small portion of this gap is explained by observable characteristics, suggesting the presence of unobserved influences. Bitcoin knowledge emerges as a key explanatory variable, accounting for much of the explained difference, while demographic factors—such as age, gender, and education—also play important roles. |
| Date: | 2025–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:cand25:01 |
| By: | Marc Frenette; Winnie Chan; Tomasz Handler |
| Abstract: | Government programs are designed to help individuals, families, communities and businesses through grants, loans, subsidies, job training, informational or counselling services, etc. The costs of setting up and running these programs often run well into the millions and, in some cases, billions of dollars. Establishing what sorts of impacts a program has on beneficiaries is crucial for understanding its value (i.e., do the benefits outweigh the costs?), which can then be used to justify the development, continuation, or cessation of the program. |
| Keywords: | data integration, program evaluation, program data |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500300002e |
| By: | Guy Gellatly; Helen Foran; Lauren Pinault |
| Abstract: | The prevalence of Canadians who report high levels of life satisfaction has trended lower since inflationary pressures began to build in 2021. In early 2024, 48.6% of Canadians aged 15 years and older reported that they were highly satisfied with their lives, a decline of more than 5 percentage points from three years earlier. The gradual deterioration in life satisfaction has been unevenly felt, with more sizable reductions among young adults, racialized Canadians and those living in larger urban centres.Note Cumulative declines among younger Canadians over the past three years, which occurred against a backdrop of deteriorating housing affordability and large increases in rental prices, have totalled about 11 percentage points, with about one in three reporting high levels of life satisfaction by early 2024. |
| Keywords: | life satisfaction, Canada, young families |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202401200001e |
| By: | Maximiliano Dvorkin; Fernando Leibovici; Ana Maria Santacreu |
| Abstract: | A model suggests that although tariffs have been only partially passed through to consumers, they already have exerted measurable pressure on prices. |
| Keywords: | tariffs; inflation; price pressures; pass-through |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101953 |
| By: | Julie Remache |
| Abstract: | Remarks at the 2025 Annual Primary Dealer Meeting, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve balance sheets; ample reserves; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:101984 |