|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez Salguero |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a synthesis of the empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy. Using the findings from an extensive collection of meta-analyses, it evaluates the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy instruments on key macroeconomic variables such as output, inflation, capital flows, and the exchange rate. The aggregated evidence reveals a systematic gap between the effects reported in primary studies and the actual magnitude of these effects, once corrected for publication bias and methodological heterogeneity. The findings suggest that, while monetary policy is a relevant tool, its power to modulate the business cycle has been consistently overestimated in the literature. Contextual factors - such as the degree of financial development, the exchange rate regime, central bank independence, and crisis conditions - that modulate the transmission of monetary policy are identified. In particular, it is found that publication bias systematically favors statistically significant results consistent with predominant theory, which artificially inflates the perception of effectiveness. By correcting these distortions, a picture of monetary policy emerges with more modest, uncertain effects and considerable lags, which has profound implications for macroeconomic theory and the practice of economic policy. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.19591 |
| By: | Alberto Russo (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, Italy and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Drawing on Peter Turchin’s structural-demographic theory, this paper provides a preliminary examination of how rising inequality and financial liberalization contribute to political instability through the interplay of mass immiseration and elite overproduction. We capture these dynamics through a simplified agent-based macroeconomic model, introducing two structural shocks – growing inequality and financial liberalization – that reflect the transformations reshaping advanced economies in recent decades, a process intertwined with political disintegration. A wealth tax on the richest households can reduce political fragmentation and improve economic performance, but lasting resilience will require embedding such measures within a broader rethinking of the policy paradigm that has prevailed since the 1980s. |
| Keywords: | growing inequality; financial liberalization; political instability; agent-based model |
| JEL: | C63 D31 E02 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2025/07 |
| By: | Changryong Baek; Seunghyun Moon; Seunghyeon Lee |
| Abstract: | We introduce KRED (Korea Research Economic Database), a new FRED MD style macroeconomic dataset for South Korea. KRED is constructed by aggregating 88 key monthly time series from multiple official sources (e.g., Bank of Korea ECOS, Statistics Korea KOSIS) into a unified, publicly available database. The dataset is aligned with the FRED MD format, enabling standardized transformations and direct comparability; an Appendix maps each Korean series to its FRED MD counterpart. Using a balanced panel of 80 series from 2009 to 2024, we extract four principal components via PCA that explain approximately 40% of the total variance. These four factors have intuitive economic interpretations, capturing monetary conditions, labor market activity, real output, and housing demand, analogous to diffusion indexes summarizing broad economic movements. Notably, the factor based diffusion indexes derived from KRED clearly trace major macroeconomic fluctuations over the sample period such as the 2020 COVID 19 recession. Our results demonstrate that KRED's factor structure can effectively condense complex economic information into a few informative indexes, yielding new insights into South Korea's business cycles and co movements. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.16115 |
| By: | Nicola Borri; Yukun Liu; Aleh Tsyvinski; Xi Wu |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrencies are coming of age. We organize empirical regularities into ten stylized facts and analyze cryptocurrency through the lens of empirical asset pricing. We find important similarities with traditional markets -- risk-adjusted performance is broadly comparable, and the cross-section of returns can be summarized by a small set of factors. However, cryptocurrency also has its own distinct character: jumps are frequent and large, and blockchain information helps drive prices. This common set of facts provides evidence that cryptocurrency is emerging as an investable asset class. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.14435 |
| By: | Karen Mathiasen (Center for Global Development); Nico Martinez (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Stablecoins, a form of cryptocurrency pegged to and backed by another asset (usually US dollars), are reshaping the global financial landscape. Unlike fiat currency, they can be issued by private companies, and barriers to entry are relatively low. Stablecoins are appealing because they can process cross-border transactions much faster and more cheaply than conventional payments systems such as SWIFT and Western Union and offer a secure store of value. While most stablecoin activity now involves buying and selling other cryptocurrencies, this is starting to change, with increased stablecoin use for remittances and international settlements. The passage of the US GENIUS Act has accelerated their legitimacy and adoption, helping drive stablecoin transaction volumes to trillions of dollars. Yet their proliferation also poses substantial risks, including banking sector instability, regulatory arbitrage, weaker transmission of monetary policy, and the spread of illicit finance, all of which could destabilize the global financial system. In this paper, we explore these trends and discuss what the international financial institutions should be doing to support countries as they navigate the stablecoin phenomenon. We argue that the International Monetary Fund and World Bank should be much more proactive, and we propose a new agenda for action, starting with the adoption of clear criteria for country engagement on stablecoins and strengthened surveillance activities. |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:365 |
| By: | Enrique Devesa; Rafael Domenech; Robert Meneua |
| Abstract: | El sistema público de pensiones en España presenta un desequilibrio financiero y actuarial creciente, con un déficit contributivo cercano al 2 % del PIB, al que hay que añadir las necesidades de financiación de las pensiones no contributivas, los complementos a las pensiones mínimas o el gasto por clases pasivas, y un Factor de Equidad Actuarial (FdEA), que refleja prestaciones muy superiores a las cotizaciones. Como alternativa, se propone la transición hacia un sistema de cuentas nocionales, ya aplicado en otros países europeos, que asegura la proporcionalidad entre aportaciones y prestaciones, introduce ajustes automáticos a cambios económicos y demográficos y refuerza la equidad. Bajo el supuesto de que el crecimiento futuro fuera igual al de las últimas décadas, los resultados con datos de la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales y simulaciones teóricas muestran que, aunque las pensiones iniciales serían ex ante un 12% inferiores, el nuevo modelo corregiría inequidades y eliminaría el desequilibrio actuarial. Con un crecimiento futuro medio del 1, 23%, como en las proyecciones de la Comisión Europea, el FdEA sería de 1, 25. Para que el FdEA fuera igual a la unidad sería necesario un crecimiento futuro igual a 3, 2%. Esta proyección ex ante no tiene en cuenta los efectos positivos de equilibrio general sobre la inversión y la productividad a que daría lugar un sistema de cuentas nocionales, frente a los costes en términos de estas variables de mantener el sistema actual con unas necesidades crecientes. Teniendo en cuenta todos estos efectos, la renta de ciclo vital con un sistema de cuentas nocionales sería probablemente superior al sistema actual. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2025-22 |
| By: | Taejin Park; Fernando Perez-Cruz; Hyun Song Shin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the landscape of economic ideas as revealed in the machine learning embedding of a comprehensive dataset of central bank speeches. This dataset, maintained by the BIS, encompasses 19, 742 speeches delivered by almost 1, 000 officials from over 100 central banks over a period spanning three decades, from 1997 to 2025. As well as topic analysis of speeches at any moment in time, the evolution of the topics over time provides insights into how the focus of central bank thinking has been shaped by shifting policy challenges since 1997. Parsing the embedding both through topics and through time provides rich insights into how economic ideas have taken shape through communication practices of central banks worldwide. To demonstrate its utility, we have conducted a series of analyses that map the global landscape of monetary policy discourse. Furthermore, we construct a quantitative framework-referred to as the "space of central bankers' ideas"-which uncovers institutional patterns and highlights shifts in policy approaches over time. |
| Keywords: | central bank communication, central bank speeches, AI, topic modeling, embeddings |
| JEL: | E52 E58 C55 C38 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1299 |
| By: | Marcos Delprato |
| Abstract: | The high prevalence of students not achieving the basic competencies in Latin America is concerning. Even more so given the region's deep structural inequalities and the larger post-pandemic regional learning losses. Within this scenario, this paper contributes to the identification of the determinants of bottom and low performers (below level 2) using recent advancements on explainable machine learning methods. In particular, relying on PISA 2022 data for 10 countries and using the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis, I identify critical factors impacting on the student performance across low performers groups. I find that a student with the highest probability of being a not achiever speaks a minority language and had repeated, has no digital devices at home, comes from a poor family and works for payment half of the week, and the school he/she attends has wide disadvantages such as bad school climate, weak ICT infrastructure and poor teaching quality (only a third of teachers being certified). Regarding countries' estimates, I find quite homogeneous patterns as far as global average contribution of top ranked factors is concerned, with repetition at primary, household wealth, and educational ICT inputs being top ten ranked covariates in at least 8 out of the 10 total countries. The paper findings contribute to the broad literature on strategies to identify and to target those most left behind in Latin American education systems. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.24508 |
| By: | Fawaz, Yarine (CEMFI, Madrid); Hospido, Laura (Bank of Spain); Martí Llobet, Júlia (CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effects of a randomized activation program targeting recipients of the Spain’s national Minimum Income Scheme. The intervention combined personalized coaching, job-search assistance, soft-skills training, and, in one treatment arm, also digital-skills workshops. While short-run employment effects were limited, the program significantly reduced the prevalence of informal work and improved participants’ financial resilience. Gains were particularly pronounced among those who received the digital-skills component, who reported large improvements in digital task performance. Half a year after receiving the treatment, administrative social security records show emerging positive effects on days worked, contract stability, and full-time employment, especially in the digital-skills group. We also find evidence of a psychological awareness effect: low-engagement participants reported lower self-assessed transversal skills, possibly reflecting a shift in self-perception. Our findings highlight the potential of multidimensional, personalized activation strategies to foster formalization and digital inclusion among low-income populations. |
| Keywords: | randomized controlled trial, active labor market policies, social inclusion |
| JEL: | I32 I38 E24 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18169 |
| By: | Yao Cheng; Di Feng |
| Abstract: | We investigate Ekici (2024b)'s multi-center allocation problems, focusing on fairness in this context. We introduce three fairness notions that respect centers' priorities: internal fairness, external fairness, and procedural fairness. The first notion eliminates envy among agents within the same center, the second prohibits envy across different centers, and the third rules out envy from an ex-ante perspective through agents' trading opportunities. We provide two characterizations of a natural extension of the top-trading-cycles mechanism (TTC) through our fairness notions. Precisely, we show that in the presence of strategy-proofness and pair efficiency, internal fairness and external fairness together characterize TTC (Theorem 1). Also, strategy-proofness combined solely with procedural fairness also characterizes TTC (Theorem 2). Furthermore, by adding internal fairness, we establish our third TTC characterization, by relaxing Ekici's queuewise rationality to another voluntary participation condition, the center lower bound (Theorem 3). Finally, we define a core solution within this model and characterize it through TTC (Theorem 4). Our findings offer practical insights for market designers, particularly in contexts such as international cooperation in medical programs and worker exchange programs. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21812 |
| By: | Sebastian Horn; Carmen M. Reinhart; Christoph Trebesch |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive overview of China’s lending to developing countries—a central feature of today’s international financial system. Building on our previous research and the work of others, we document the scale, destination, and terms of China’s overseas lending boom, as well as the lending bust and defaults that have followed. We compare China’s lending boom to past boom-bust cycles and discuss the implications of China’s rise as an international creditor on recipient countries and sovereign debt markets. The evidence indicates that Chinese state banks are assertive and commercially sophisticated lenders. For recipient countries, however, the jury is still out: it remains to be seen whether the gains from China’s lending—through growth and improved infrastructure—will outweigh the more immediate burdens of debt service or the multifaceted costs of default. |
| JEL: | E3 F34 F65 F68 N2 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34359 |
| By: | Max Sina Knicker; Karl Naumann-Woleske; Michael Benzaquen (LadHyX - Laboratoire d'hydrodynamique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In an era of rapid technological advancements and macroeconomic shifts, worker reallocation is necessary; yet responses to labor market shocks remain sluggish, making it crucial to identify bottlenecks in occupational transitions to understand labor market dynamics and improve mobility. In this study, we analyze French occupational data to uncover patterns of worker mobility and pinpoint specific occupations that act as bottlenecks, impeding rapid reallocation. We introduce two metrics, transferability and accessibility, to quantify the diversity of occupational transitions and find that bottlenecks can be explained by a condensation effect of occupations with high accessibility but low transferability. Transferability measures the variety of transitions from one occupation to another, while accessibility assesses the variety of transitions into an occupation. We provide a comprehensive framework for analyzing occupational complexity and mobility patterns, offering insights into potential barriers and pathways for efficient retraining programs. We argue that our approach can inform policymakers and stakeholders aiming to enhance labor market efficiency and support workforce adaptability. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05273336 |
| By: | Martinez Cillero Maria (European Commission - JRC); Napolitano Lorenzo (European Commission - JRC); Rentocchini Francesco (European Commission - JRC); Seri Cecilia; Zaurino Elena (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "Rising market concentration and the dominance of `superstar' firms have sparked concerns about declining competition and innovation. While technological change and globalisation are key drivers, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) may also play a role. This paper investigates whether firms use technological M&As — acquisitions of innovative subsidiaries with patent portfolios — to enhance market power. Using a global panel of 8, 314 publicly listed firms from 2008 to 2020 and a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we find that such acquisitions increase acquiring firms’ markups by 2% on average. Effects are stronger among top R&D investors, US-based firms, and those in high-tech manufacturing. The main mechanism appears to be greater insulation from competitors via acquired patents, which limit knowledge spillovers and raise entry barriers. These findings highlight the need for antitrust policies that balance innovation incentives with the risks of growing market power." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:202503 |
| By: | Marvin Germain (LAGAM - Laboratoire de Géographie et d'Aménagement de Montpellier - UMPV - Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry, RisCrises); Thomas Candela (LAGAM - Laboratoire de Géographie et d'Aménagement de Montpellier - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3, RisCrises); Frédéric Leone (LAGAM - Laboratoire de Géographie et d'Aménagement de Montpellier - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3); Matthieu Péroche (LAGAM - Laboratoire de Géographie et d'Aménagement de Montpellier - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3, UPVM UM3 UFR3 - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier 3 - Faculté des Sciences humaines et des sciences de l'environnement - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3); Alexandre Goux (ESRI France - ESRI France - Environmental Systems Research Insitute) |
| Abstract: | Operational and decision-making needs in emergency management are tending to increase. Indeed, in a context of climate change and growing issues to safeguard, regulatory measures are evolving towards greater requirements. Among these needs, there is a noticeable demand for innovative tools optimized to assist decision-making. This study capitalizes on scientific knowledge regarding the opportunities of geovisualization for emergency management. It also analyzes existing webmapping practices through a multi-criteria analysis grid based on the concepts of ergonomics and interactivity. These observations were a prerequisite for the development of an emergency management support platform based on ArcGIS Online (Esri) solutions. This platform aims to meet the needs of emergency managers and address the limitations of static operational mapping. Additionally, the prototype is optimized based on observed improvements from existing tools. Through a map-centric approach, this innovative solution emphasizes the integration of spatial data, multi-scale cartographic representation, and information sharing while optimizing essential operational functionalities for emergency management. Finally, user experiments, particularly in simulated emergency situations, aim to enhance the tool's decision-support capabilities. |
| Abstract: | Les besoins opérationnels et décisionnels en gestion de crise tendent à se multiplier. En effet, dans un contexte de changement climatique et de multiplication des enjeux à sauvegarder, les dispositions réglementaires évoluent vers davantage d'exigences. Parmi ces besoins, on observe la nécessité de disposer d'outils innovants optimisés pour l'aide à la décision. Ainsi, la présente étude fait état des connaissances scientifiques sur les opportunités de la géovisualisation pour la gestion de crise. Elle analyse également les pratiques webcartographiques existantes à travers une grille d'analyse multicritères basée sur les notions d'ergonomie et d'interactivité. Ces observations ont été un préalable à l'élaboration d'une plateforme d'appui à la gestion de crise construite à partir des solutions ArcGIS Online (Esri). Cette dernière a pour objectifs de répondre aux besoins des gestionnaires de crise et de pallier les contraintes de la cartographie opérationnelle statique. De plus, le prototype est optimisé au regard des pistes d'amélioration observées au sein des outils existants. À travers une approche cartographie-centrée, cette solution innovante met l'accent sur le croisement de données spatiales, la représentation cartographique multi-échelles et le partage d'informations, tout en optimisant les fonctionnalités opérationnelles essentielles à la gestion de crise. Enfin, la réalisation d'expérimentations utilisateurs, notamment en situation de crise simulée, vise à améliorer les capacités d'aide à la décision offertes par l'outil. |
| Keywords: | webmapping, geovisualisation, emergency management, decision support, user experience, géovisualisation, gestion de crise, aide à la décision, expérience utilisateur, cartographie en ligne |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05250531 |
| By: | Signorelli Serena (European Commission - JRC); Fernández Cruzado Ana (European Commission - JRC); De Prato Giuditta (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "The Science for Policy Brief explores the digital ecosystem in EU regions through the DGTES approach, focusing on research, innovation, and startups. It first highlights key NUTS 3 regions where research organizations are concentrated and discusses strategies to enhance competitiveness in Europe. The brief then identifies top NUTS 3 regions for research and innovation activities and examines economic indicators (GDP, employment and number of startups) to uncover potential growth opportunities." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143080 |
| By: | Atoyan, Vardan; Matevosyan, Diana |
| Abstract: | The growing geopolitical tensions and regional instabilities in Eurasia raise urgent questions about the resilience of trade routes and infrastructure connectivity. This paper applies a graphbased approach to model the EU-Asia trade network and explores Armenia's potential as a transit hub within the framework of the Global Gateway strategy. The authors construct a weighted network of major regional players based on bilateral trade volumes, geographic distances, and route accessibility. In this network, nodes represent key countries, while edges capture trade relationships, with weights reflecting trade intensity and logistical characteristics. Using a set of graph-theoretical metrics, including degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality, the authors assess the country's importance within the network, identifying its position as a potential chokepoint or facilitator of alternative trade routes. Stress-testing scenarios, including border closures, sanctions, or the reopening of previously closed borders, are simulated to evaluate the impact on trade flows and regional logistics. These scenarios simulate the dynamic nature of trade flows, considering disruptions that could reshape existing networks. Results indicate significant shifts in the network structure under stress, highlighting opportunities for Armenia to strengthen its strategic position as an alternative node in critical corridors. |
| Keywords: | Graph, Logistic Network, Eurasian Corridors, Trade, Armenia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328267 |
| By: | Milios Leonidas (European Commission - JRC); Garcia-gutierrez Pelayo; Walker Anna (European Commission - JRC); Albizzati Paola Federica (European Commission - JRC); Pinero Mira Pablo (European Commission - JRC); Besler Malte; Pedauga Luis (European Commission - JRC); Tonini Davide (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "- Climate Change Mitigation: Circular Economy strategies in the plastics sector can annually save 75-84 Mt CO₂ eq. emissions by 2050, compared to relying solely on decarbonisation strategies- Reduced Resource Dependency: The EU’s fossil resource use is reduced by 3.3%, equivalent to 930 PJ or 23 Mt oil eq.- Lower Energy Demand: Alongside the use of fossil energy carriers, the electricity demand in the EU plastics industry decreases by 34%- Higher Economic Security: The EU’s trade balance can be boosted by EUR 18 billion due to a decrease in imports." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143443 |
| By: | Quinet, Alain; Jaravel, Xavier; Schularick, Moritz; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin |
| Abstract: | • We present five guiding principles for European rearmament. Europe's rearmament should be (i) innovation-driven to support European technological capabilities, competitiveness, and productivity growth; (ii) aim for a rapid increase in production capacities for a high-low mix of military capabilities; (iii) rely on quantitative goalpost for R&D expenditures and an unmanned autonomous systems; (iv) build on independent European capabilities alongside NATO to reduce dependence on increasingly unreliable American assets; (v) substantially increase military support for Ukraine as the cost-efficient way towards European security in the short-run. • The central steps are the creation of a European defense single market, the reduction of national fragmentation, and the development of joint European defense capabilities. |
| Abstract: | • In diesem Papier formulieren wir fünf Leitprinzipien für die europäische Aufrüstung. Die europäische Aufrüstung sollte (i) innovationsgetrieben sein, um die technologischen Fähigkeiten, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und das Produktivitätswachstum Europas zu stärken; (ii) auf einem schnellen Hochfahren industrieller Kapazitäten sowohl im Hoch- als auch im Niedrigtechnologiebereich abzielen; (iii) auf quantitativen Zielvorgaben für FE-Ausgaben und den Ausbau unbemannter autonomer Systeme beruhen; (iv) unabhängige europäische Fähigkeiten neben der NATO aufbauen, um die Abhängigkeit von zunehmend unzuverlässigen amerikanischen Ressourcen zu verringern; (v) die militärische Unterstützung für die Ukraine substanziell ausweiten, da eine siegreiche Ukraine kurzfristig der günstigste Weg für mehr Sicherheit in Europa darstellt. • Zentrale Schritte dorthin sind die Schaffung eines europäischen Verteidigungsbinnenmarktes, der Abbau nationaler Fragmentierung und der Aufbau gemeinsamer europäischer Verteidigungskapazitäten. |
| Keywords: | Europe, defense, single market, procurement, Europa, Verteidigung, Gemeinsamer Markt, Beschaffung |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:328252 |
| By: | Nicholas Economides (Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY, USA); Przemyslaw Jeziorski (Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA) |
| Abstract: | In many developing countries of Africa and Asia, cell phones are used (i) to transfer money across individuals; (ii) to securely self-transport money, and (iii) to save/store money. These banking networks ride on top of wireless telecommunications networks. Traditionally, each banking network was confined to the network of a telecom carrier, and transfers were available only within the carrier’s network, making it incompatible with banking networks of other carriers. In Tanzania, mobile banking under incompatibility was well established for a decade until September 2015 when the second, third, and fourth largest carriers established full compatibility of their banking networks. Analyzing a comprehensive dataset of banking transactions provided by a large telecom carrier in Tanzania, this paper discusses pricing under compatibility, contrasts with pricing under incompatibility. We analyze the transaction termination fees (cash-out fees) in this unregulated environment, and assess the individual and collective incentives for compatibility, noting that the largest carrier has remained incompatible. Despite very high prices for transfers across networks set up commercially under compatibility, the introduction of compatibility resulted in substantial consumer surplus gains. We calculate further potential welfare gains under a number of counterfactual regulatory scenarios. |
| Keywords: | mobile money network, compatibility, interoperability, transaction costs, Tanzania, banking, social network, Tanzania, Tigo, Airtel, Vodacom |
| JEL: | O16 O17 O33 L14 L15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2510 |
| By: | Juiher El Mahdi (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Ourdi Hmad (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]); Guerguer Anass (Université Ibn Zohr = Ibn Zohr University [Agadir]) |
| Abstract: | The digital transformation of public administration depends to a large extent on user acceptance of the digital services on offer. This study explores the determinants of intention to adopt public e-services through an integrated model mobilizing variables from the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and specific institutional dimensions. Using the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) method, a structural model was tested on a sample of 100 respondents. The results show that ease of use, source credibility and institutional virality have a significant and positive effect on adoption intention. On the other hand, perceived usefulness and subjective norms showed no positive effect, suggesting an appropriation dynamic influenced more by perceptions of reliability and institutional exemplarity than by classic dimensions of perceived performance. These results call for a rethinking of e-services communication and deployment strategies, with a focus on trust, fluid usage and institutional visibility. |
| Keywords: | Adoption of public e-services TAM model PLS-SEM Institutional credibility Digital transformation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05250816 |
| By: | Zoltan Bartha; Adam Bereczk |
| Abstract: | Our study presents a model of factors influencing the financial viability of Hungarian social enterprises, and tests the model on a sample of 220 Hungarian firms involved in social entrepreneurship. In the model we suggest that the most important factors for financial viability are the Regulatory environment (the transparency of regulations); the Entrepreneurial attributes of the entrepreneur (business orientation, business skills and experience, business planning tendencies); the Financial support provided by the environment (the ratio of grants, donations and subsidies within the total revenues of the firm); and the Strategy followed by the firms (the presence of such generic strategies as cost leadership or differentiation). We find that only two of the model's four factors are significantly associated with Financial viability: Entrepreneurial attributes and Financial support. The results suggest that the best way of strengthening the viability of social enterprises is through entrepreneurship training (to enhance the business skills and experience of the entrepreneurs, and to propagate business planning), and to provide grants and subsidies to these firms. As no significant association was found between Financial viability and Strategy, we can conclude that the role of market competition is probably relatively week among Hungarian social enterprises. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.21415 |
| By: | Roth, Jakob; Schwab, Laura; Hintermann, Beat; Götschi, Thomas; Meister, Adrian; Meyer de Freitas, Lucas; Axhausen, Kay W. |
| Abstract: | This study presents results from a randomized controlled trial involving 1, 085 participants in Switzerland that have access to an E-bike, a car, and public transport. The participants’ transport choices are monitored by means of a GPS-based tracking app. The treatment consists in a monetary incentive that approximates the main external costs and benefits associated with transport in the spirit of a Pigovian tax. This tax reduces transport-related external costs by 6.9 %, which corresponds to 78 Swiss francs per person and year (currently equivalent to 94 US dollars). The main underlying mechanism is a mode shift away from driving towards E-biking, public transport and walking. The results are primarily driven by individuals who own an S-pedelec with support up to 45 km/h, rather than users of the more common E-bikes that provide support up to 25 km/h. The pricing also induces a travel shift towards less congested time windows |
| Keywords: | Transport, Field experiment, GPS tracking, bicycle, E-bike, external costs, Pigovian taxation, transport pricing |
| JEL: | H23 H31 I18 Q54 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/05 |
| By: | Shuige Liu |
| Abstract: | We examine how misinformation spreads in social networks composed of individuals with long-term offline relationships. Especially, we focus on why misinformation persists and diffuses despite being recognized by most as false. In our psychological game theoretical model, each agent who receives a piece of (mis)information must first decide how to react -- by openly endorsing it, remaining silent, or openly challenging it. After observing the reactions of her neighbors who also received the message, the agent then chooses whether to forward it to others in her own chatroom who have not yet received it. By distinguishing these two roles, our framework addresses puzzling real-world phenomena, such as the gap between what individuals privately believe and what they publicly transmit. A key assumption in our model is that, while perceived veracity influences decisions, the dominant factor is the alignment between an agent's beliefs and those of her social network -- a feature characteristic of communities formed through long-term offline relationships. This dynamic can lead agents to tacitly accept and even propagate information they privately judge to be of low credibility. Our results challenge the view that improving information literacy alone can curb the spread of misinformation. We show that when agents are highly sensitive to peer pressure and the network exhibits structural polarization, even if the majority does not genuinely believe in it, the message still can spread widely without encountering open resistance. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.08658 |
| By: | Flörchinger, Daniela; Perino, Grischa; Frondel, Manuel; Jarke, Johannes Stephan |
| Abstract: | Decommissioning of coal-fired power plants is a widely known emission abatement option, but one with a limited effect due to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). In contrast, tightening the cap in the EU ETS is a highly effective, but less known mitigation option. This article empirically analyzes whether informing individuals about the effectiveness of these abatement options increases support for more effective climate policies. The analysis is based on an online survey experiment involving actual cancellation of emission allowances and curbing the output of a coal-fired power plant. We find that preferences over abatement options are driven by their perceived effectiveness. Moreover, we provide causal evidence that voters update their preference rankings when exposed to relevant information. |
| Abstract: | Die Stilllegung von Kohlekraftwerken ist eine weithin bekannte Option zur Emissionsminderung, deren Wirkung jedoch aufgrund des EU-Emissionshandelssystems (EU-EHS) begrenzt ist. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die Verschärfung der Obergrenze im EU-EHS eine hochwirksame, aber weniger bekannte Minderungsoption. In diesem Artikel wird empirisch analysiert, ob die Aufklärung der Bevölkerung über die Wirksamkeit dieser Minderungsoptionen die Unterstützung für wirksamere Klimaschutzmaßnahmen erhöht. Die Analyse basiert auf einem Online-Umfrageexperiment, bei dem Emissionszertifikate tatsächlich gestrichen und die Leistung eines Kohlekraftwerks gedrosselt wurden. Wir stellen fest, dass die Präferenzen hinsichtlich der Emissionsminderungsmaßnahmen von ihrer wahrgenommenen Wirksamkeit abhängen. Darüber hinaus liefern wir kausale Belege dafür, dass Wähler ihre Präferenzrangfolge aktualisieren, wenn sie relevante Informationen erhalten. |
| Keywords: | coal phase-out, information provision, motivated reasoning, policy mix |
| JEL: | C93 D02 D83 D91 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:328240 |