|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Chadha, J. S.; Corrado, G.; Corrado, L.; Buratta, I. D. L. |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether macroprudential policies support broader economic stability, particularly the welfare of households. For this purpose, we develop a New Keynesian business cycle model with agents subject to credit constraints and asset price fluctuations. The model differentiates between savers, who own firms and banks, and borrowers. The commercial bank sets the loan rate as a function of risk, specifically the value of housing collateral. We use occasionally binding constraints to capture nonlinearities arising from the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the policy interest rate and the borrowing constraint faced by borrower households. We examine two macroprudential tools: a countercyclical loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and a bank reserve requirement. We find that macroprudential tools significantly reduce the volatility of consumption and lending cycles and decrease both the expected frequency and severity of ZLB episodes. More generally, by attenuating the variance of the business cycle, particularly for borrower households, macroprudential tools reduce the need for monetary policy interventions. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E51 E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2561 |
| By: | Klose, Jens; Barry, Mamdou-Lamine; Bruns, Brenton Joey; Kandemir, Sinem; Smirnov, Victor; Tillmann, Peter |
| JEL: | E58 E52 E44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325365 |
| By: | Dalgic, Husnu C. |
| JEL: | E44 F32 F41 G15 D84 E71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325452 |
| By: | Gantert, Konstantin |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325386 |
| By: | Anushka Mitra |
| Abstract: | The unemployment rate remains elevated long after recessions, a persistence that standard search-and-matching models cannot explain. I show that noise shocks—expectational errors due to the noise in received signals about aggregate shocks—account for much of this sluggishness. Using a structural VAR, I find that absent noise shocks unemployment would have recovered to its pre-recession level six quarters earlier over 1968–2019. To interpret this evidence, I develop a search-and-matching model with on-the-job search, endogenous search effort, and wage rigidity. Embedding imperfect information generates two channels of persistence: slow learning amplifies the effects of persistent productivity shocks, and noise shocks provide an additional source of sluggishness, further magnified by sticky wages and vacancy posting. The model successfully replicates both the slow recovery of unemployment and systematic forecast errors, highlighting imperfect information as a key mechanism behind post-recession labor market dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect Information; Labor Market; Business Cycles |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E70 |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1423 |
| By: | Kumhof, Michael |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325358 |
| By: | Melone, Alessandro; Randl, Otto; Sögner, Leopold; Zechner, Josef |
| JEL: | E44 G11 G12 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325398 |
| By: | Melesse, Mequanint B.; Duche, Vishwambhar; Guvvalavenkata, Anupama; Kumar, Dron; Sanil, Richu; Falk, Thomas; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S. |
| Abstract: | Water is a vital resource for agricultural production, sustaining ecosystem services, and supporting livelihoods of communities. However, population growth and climate change coupled with unsustainable water use and management are increasingly pushing the limits of water resources. In many parts of India, water scarcity is already posing a threat to agricultural systems and livelihoods due to prolonged droughts and climate variability. Water scarcity is more pronounced in semi-arid and arid dryland regions of India, where the majority of these regions are characterized as high to extreme water stress areas. Effective management and governance of water resources is crucial to sustain productivity of dryland agricultural systems and livelihoods in these regions. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; water; water management; surface water; India; Asia; Southern Asia |
| Date: | 2024–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:168925 |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | This article interprets Kant from an ordonomic perspective: How does Kant think, and why does he think the way he does? - Kant seeks to ground human dignity. To this end, he conceives the idea of thinking the supreme principle of morality as an end that is at the same time a duty. He thus identifies a specific form that enables every person to apply the categorical imperative as a moral criterion. Kant ties the universality of this form to the universality of human dignity. His rigorism-his strategy of purification-thus concerns thinking, not acting. He welcomed actions done from duty, even when they were accom- panied by personal interests, by "pleasure and love." For contemporary theory-building, two aspects are of particular interest: (a) Kant recognized the importance of institutional incentives for moral progress; (b) Kant's theoretical architecture employs purposiveness as a regulative idea and aims to produce theory for practice-by formulating ideas that anticipate and prepare their own realization. |
| Abstract: | Dieser Aufsatz interpretiert Kant aus ordonomischer Sicht: Wie denkt Kant, und warum denkt er so, wie er denkt? - Kant will die Menschenwürde begründen. In dieser Absicht entwickelt er die Idee, den höchsten Grundsatz der Moral als Zweck zu denken, der zugleich Pflicht ist. So identifiziert er eine spezifische Form, mit der jeder Mensch den kategorischen Imperativ als moralisches Prüfkriterium anwenden kann. An die Allgemeinheit dieser Form knüpft Kant die Allgemeinheit der Menschenwürde. Kants Rigorismus, seine Purifizierungsstrategie, bezieht sich deshalb allein aufs Denken, nicht aufs Handeln. Er begrüßte es, wenn ein Handeln aus Pflicht von eigenen Interessen, von "Lust und Liebe" begleitet wird. Für eine zeitgenössische Theoriebildung sind vor allem zwei Aspekte von besonderem Interesse: (a) Kant wusste um die Bedeutung institutioneller Anreize für moralischen Fortschritt; (b) Kants Theoriearchitektur verwendet Zweckmäßigkeit als regulative Idee und zielt darauf ab, Theorie für die Praxis zu betreiben, indem sie Ideen denkt, die ihrer eigenen Verwirklichung vor- und zuarbeiten. |
| Keywords: | Liberal philosophy of reason, moral and political autonomy, human dignity, priority of the right over the good, purposiveness as a regulative idea, conflict as a driver of progress, Vernunftphilosophie der Freiheit, moralische und politische Autonomie, Menschenwürde, Vorrang des Rechten vor dem Guten, Zweckmäßigkeit als regulative Idee, Konflikt als Motor des Fortschritts |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:327134 |
| By: | Egger, Hartmut; Elke, Jahn; Meier, Philipp |
| JEL: | F23 R12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325399 |
| By: | Zarah Thiel; Reza Fazeli; Frank Jotzo; Andreas Löschel |
| Abstract: | Hydrogen produced from renewable energy sources or with carbon capture and storage is an important pillar for reducing global emissions. Using structured interviews, we collect and analyze expectations of 47 industry, science, and government experts on hydrogen pathways and policy needs in Australia. A detailed picture emerges of expectations for how hydrogen will be produced, traded, or used domestically, including projections of future production cost and quantities. Experts also shared views on key obstacles and factors that could support hydrogen deployment. While a large majority anticipates a transition to renewable hydrogen by 2050, there are some notable divergences in expectations, including among different stakeholder groups and levels of experience. For instance, carbon capture and storage pathways remain contested. While the experts were largely optimistic that technical and environmental barriers could be overcome, the main policy gaps identified relate to regulatory and market uncertainties. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen, expert survey, renewable energy, policy |
| JEL: | O38 Q42 Q48 H00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12161 |
| By: | Guillermo Guzmán Prudencio (SDSN Bolivia); Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wages for Santo Domingo, capital of the Dominican Republic. The update for 2025 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in November 2021 (Voorend, Alvarado, Anker & Anker, 2021). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Dominican Republic. |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250403 |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| Abstract: | The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | maize; market prices; retail prices; food prices; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:137649 |
| By: | Kindermann, Fabian; Kunz, Sebastian |
| JEL: | D15 H55 I14 J14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325366 |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora |
| Abstract: | Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region. |
| Keywords: | shock; food prices; fertilizers; markets; price volatility; inflation; food security; welfare; Central America |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:162957 |
| By: | Lott, Yvonne; Peters, Eileen |
| Keywords: | Arbeitszeit, Arbeitszeitgestaltung, Familie-Beruf, Online-Befragung, Männer, Frauen, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsipbs:327104 |
| By: | Mamadou Dit Koro Sidibé (USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion - Université catholique de Bukavu); Mariama Sacko (USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako); Tahirou Tangara (Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako); Issa Sacko (Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako) |
| Abstract: | Abstract : This study examines the impact of access to electricity, access to clean water, public health expenditures, and the school enrollment rate on the Human Development Index (HDI) in Mali over the period 2000–2023. The dataset consists of reliable national time series with 24 annual observations, allowing for a coherent assessment of both short- and long-term dynamics. The analysis is based on an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, suitable for mixed-order integrated series, which distinguishes between immediate and lasting effects of the explanatory variables. The estimated results indicate that, in the long run, access to electricity has a positive and statistically significant effect on HDI, confirming its central role as a structural infrastructure. In contrast, the coefficients for access to clean water and public health expenditures are negative and significant, which may reflect inefficiencies or governance issues in the management of these public services rather than an inherently adverse effect. School enrollment, on the other hand, does not show a significant effect according to the estimated model. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening electrical infrastructure while improving the quality and management of public services to support sustainable human development in Mali. The study has certain limitations, notably the small size of the annual sample and the absence of detailed regional data, which limits the generalization of the results. These constraints provide avenues for future research incorporating regional or sectoral data to better understand the determinants of human development. Keywords : Human development, access to electricity, clean water, health expenditures, school enrollment, ARDL, Mali. JEL Classification : C32, O15, Q41, O55 Paper type : Empirical research |
| Abstract: | Résumé : Cette étude analyse l'impact de l'accès à l'électricité, à l'eau potable, des dépenses publiques en santé et du taux de scolarisation sur l'indice de développement humain (IDH) au Mali, sur la période 2000-2023. La base de données mobilisée comprend des séries temporelles nationales fiables, couvrant 24 observations annuelles, permettant une évaluation cohérente des dynamiques à court et à long terme. L'analyse repose sur un modèle ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), adapté aux séries intégrées d'ordres mixtes, qui permet de distinguer les effets immédiats et durables des variables explicatives. Les résultats estimés à partir du modèle ARDL indiquent qu'à long terme, l'accès à l'électricité exerce un effet positif et statistiquement significatif sur l'IDH, confirmant son rôle central comme infrastructure structurante. À l'inverse, les coefficients estimés pour l'accès à l'eau potable et pour les dépenses publiques en santé sont négatifs et significatifs, ce qui peut refléter des inefficiences ou des problèmes de gouvernance dans la gestion de ces services publics, plutôt qu'un impact intrinsèquement défavorable. Le taux de scolarisation, quant à lui, n'a pas d'effet significatif selon le modèle estimé. Ces constats soulignent l'importance de renforcer les infrastructures électriques tout en améliorant la qualité et la gestion des services publics pour soutenir un développement humain durable au Mali. L'étude comporte toutefois certaines limites, notamment la taille réduite de l'échantillon annuel et l'absence de données régionales détaillées, ce qui restreint la généralisation des résultats à l'ensemble du pays. Ces contraintes ouvrent des perspectives pour des recherches futures intégrant des données régionales ou sectorielles afin d'affiner la compréhension des déterminants du développement humain. Mots clés : Développement humain, accès à l'électricité, eau potable, dépenses de santé, scolarisation, ARDL, Mali. Classification JEL : C32, O15, Q41, O55 Type du papier : Recherche empirique |
| Keywords: | ARDL, Développement humain accès à l'électricité eau potable dépenses de santé scolarisation ARDL Mali. Classification JEL : C32 O15 Q41 O55 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Human development access to electricity clean water health expenditures school enrollment ARDL Mali. JEL Classification : C32 O15 Q41 O55 Paper type : Empirical research, Développement humain, accès à l'électricité, eau potable, dépenses de santé, scolarisation, Mali. Classification JEL : C32, O55 Paper type : Empirical research, Mali. JEL Classification : C32, school enrollment, health expenditures, clean water, access to electricity, O55 Type du papier : Recherche empirique Human development, Q41, O15 |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05242320 |
| By: | Orazio Attanasio (Yale University, FAIR @NHH, NBER); Ricardo Paes de Barros (Insper); Pedro Carneiro (University College London, IFS, CEMMAP); David K. Evans (Center for Global Development); Lycia Lima (São Paulo School of Economics, Fundação Getulio Vargas); Pedro Olinto (World Bank); Norbert Schady (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of publicly provided daycare for children aged 0-3 on outcomes of children and their caregivers over the course of seven years after initial daycare enrollment. At the end of 2007, the city of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil used a lottery to assign children to limited public daycare openings. Winning the lottery translated to a 32 percent increase in total time in daycare during a child’s first four years of life. This allowed caregivers more time to work, resulting in higher incomes for beneficiary households in the first year of daycare attendance and 4 years later (but not after 7 years, by which time all children were eligible for universal schooling). The rise in labor force participation is driven primarily by grandparents and by adolescent siblings residing in the same household as (and possibly caring for) the child, and not by parents, most of whom were already working. Beneficiary children saw sustained gains in height-for-age and weight-for-age, which are likely to have resulted from the better nutrition they received in the center rather than the increase in resources at home. They also saw shorter-term gains in cognitive development, which in contrast to the impacts on nutrition, likely resulted from the short-term gains in home resources. |
| Keywords: | early child development, childcare, Brazil |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:728 |
| By: | Ehrhart, Karl-Martin; Eicke, Anselm; Hirth, Lion; Ocker, Fabian; Ott, Marion; Schlecht, Ingmar; Wang, Runxi |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a game-theoretic model to analyze the strategic behavior of inc-dec gaming in market-based congestion management (redispatch). We extend existing models by considering incomplete information about competitors' costs and a finite set of providers. We find that inc-dec gaming is also a rational behavior in markets with high competition and with uncertainty about network constraints. Such behavior already occurs in our setup of two regions. Comparing market-based redispatch with three theoretical benchmarks highlights a lower efficiency level of market-based redispatch and inflated redispatch payments. Finally, we study seven variations of our basic model to assess whether different market fundamentals or market design changes mitigate incdec gaming. None of these variations eliminate inc-dec gaming entirely. |
| Keywords: | Energy market, Game theory, Auctions/bidding, Congestion management, Inc-dec gaming |
| JEL: | D43 D44 L13 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:327112 |
| By: | Pablo D. Azar; Francesca Carapella; JP Perez-Sangimino; Nathan Swem; Alexandros Vardoulakis |
| Abstract: | A blockchain is a distributed database where independent computers across the world maintain identical copies of a transaction record, updating it only when the network reaches consensus on new transactions—making the history transparent and extraordinarily difficult to alter. Historically, bonds have traded almost entirely in over-the-counter (OTC) markets, while equities and money market fund shares have largely settled through centralized infrastructures such as stock exchanges and central securities depositories. In both settings, each institution maintains its own records, and post-trade steps like confirmation, clearing, and settlement require multiple intermediaries and repeated reconciliation. |
| Keywords: | tokenized money; market funds; financial stability |
| JEL: | G0 E0 |
| Date: | 2025–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:101777 |
| By: | Boris Gershman; Tinatin Mumladze |
| Abstract: | Empirical research on culture and institutions in economics often relies on cross-cultural data to examine historical or contemporary variation in traits across ethnolinguistic groups. We argue that this work has not adequately addressed the problem of cultural non-independence due to common ancestry and show how phylogenetic regression, along with newly available global language trees, can be used to directly account for this issue. Our analysis focuses on Murdock's Ethnographic Atlas (EA), a widely used database of preindustrial societies, with broader implications for any cross-cultural study. First, we show that various economic, institutional, and cultural characteristics in the EA exhibit substantial phylogenetic signal - they tend to be more similar among societies with closer ancestral ties. Second, through simulations in a sample resembling the EA, we demonstrate that phylogenetic correlation leads to severe inefficiency of the standard OLS estimator and unacceptably high type I error rates, even when clustered standard errors are used. Phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS), exploiting the information on shared ancestry contained in language trees, improves estimation accuracy and enables reliable hypothesis testing. Third, we revisit some of the recently published results in a phylogenetic regression framework. In many specifications, PGLS estimates differ markedly from their OLS counterparts, indicating a smaller magnitude and weaker statistical significance of relevant coefficients. |
| Keywords: | Common ancestry, Cross-cultural analysis, Culture, Cultural non-independence, Ethnographic Atlas, Institutions, Phylogenetic comparative methods |
| JEL: | C10 O10 N30 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2025-02 |
| By: | María Jose Gómez Yubero, Miguel Palomero Aguilar |
| Abstract: | Diversity within corporate governance bodies, particularly in the financial sector, is vital for both economic and social stability. However, despite various efforts, women´s representation in leadership roles remains low, highlighting persistent structural and cultural barriers. This paper examines the current state and challenges of achieving balanced representation in financial institutions supervised by the CNMV, with a special focus on unlisted companies. The findings reveal that women´s presence on Boards of Directors is significantly below the levels efforts for effective inclusion. The paper discuses the reasons behind this disparity and offers recommendations to encourage meaningful changes in female representantion within the sector. |
| Keywords: | Representation of Women, Financial Institutions |
| JEL: | J71 G34 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnv:wpaper:dt_89en |
| By: | Kazuyuki MOTOHASHI; Naotoshi TSUKADA; Kenta IKEUCHI |
| Abstract: | Corporate scientists that are involved in scientific activities, often leading to research paper publications, are important for corporate innovation, since science-based innovation tends to be transformative, spanning the boundaries of existing R&D pipelines. Such scientists can also play a role as a bridge between academic researchers, injecting scientific knowledge from outside the firm. However, the publication of internal corporate scientific activities could benefit competitor firms, providing them with input towards their own transformative innovation. In this study, we analyze this trade-off using a linked dataset of research papers and patents (disambiguated by paper author and patent inventor information and patent citation in research papers) of Japanese firms. Specifically, we analyzed two aspects, (1) contribution of corporate scientist research papers to in-house innovation (patent) and (2) capacity of corporate scientists to absorb scientific findings from outside their firms to obtain high quality patents. Our findings indicate that corporate scientists contribute to both aspects of innovation in their firms. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25089 |
| By: | Lykke E. Andersen (SDSN Bolivia); Guillermo Guzmán Prudencio (SDSN Bolivia); Marcelo Delajara (Anker Research Institute); Richard Anker (Anker Research Institute); Martha Anker (Anker Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report provides updated estimates of family living expenses and living wage for Northwest, Nicaragua, a region characterized by labor-intensive export agriculture, such as coffee, bananas, sugar cane and tobacco. The update for 2025 takes into account inflation and changes in payroll deductions since the original Anker living wage study carried out in October 2017 (Andersen and Hernani-Limarino, 2017). |
| Keywords: | Living costs, living wages, Anker Methodology, Nicaragua |
| JEL: | J30 J50 J80 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iad:glliwa:250408 |
| By: | Xu, R.; Fan, Q. |
| Abstract: | We propose a characteristics-augmented quantile factor (QCF) model in which unknown factor loading functions are linked to a large set of observed individual-level (e.g., bond- or stock-specific) covariates via a single-index projection. The single-index specification offers a parsimonious, interpretable, and statistically efficient way to nonparametrically characterize the time-varying loadings, thereby circumventing the curse of dimensionality in flexible nonparametric models. Employing a three-step sieve estimation procedure, the QCF model exhibits superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance in simulations. We derive asymptotic properties for the estimators of the latent factors, loading functions, and index parameters. In an empirical study, we analyse the dynamic distributional structure of U.S. corporate bond returns from 2003 to 2020. Our approach outperforms bench-mark models, including the quantile Fama-French five-factor model and the quantile latent factor model, especially in the tails (Ï„ = 0.05, 0.95). The model uncovers state-dependent risk exposures influenced by characteristics such as bond and equity volatility, coupon rate, and spread. Finally, we offer economic interpretations of the latent factors. |
| Keywords: | Quantile Latent Factor, Panel Nonlinear Regression, Single-Index Model, Corporate Bonds |
| JEL: | C14 C31 C32 C38 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2562 |
| By: | Lam, Clifford; Cen, Zetai |
| Abstract: | We introduce the matrix-valued time-varying Main Effects Factor Model (MEFM). MEFM is a generalization to the traditional matrix-valued factor model (FM). We give rigorous definitions of MEFM and its identifications, and propose estimators for the time-varying grand mean, row and column main effects, and the row and column factor loading matrices for the common component. Rates of convergence for different estimators are spelt out, with asymptotic normality shown. The core rank estimator for the common component is also proposed, with consistency of the estimators presented. As time series, the row and column main effects { α t } and { β t } can be non-stationary without affecting the estimation accuracy of our estimators. The number of main effects factors contributing to row or column main effects is also consistently estimated by our proposed estimators. We propose a test for testing if FM is sufficient against the alternative that MEFM is necessary, and demonstrate the power of such a test in various simulation settings. We also demonstrate numerically the accuracy of our estimators in extended simulation experiments. A set of NYC Taxi traffic data is analyzed and our test suggests that MEFM is indeed necessary for analyzing the data against a traditional FM. |
| Keywords: | large-scale dependent data; time-varying row and column effects; MEFM and FM interchange; sufficiency of FM over MEFM; Tucker decomposition |
| JEL: | J1 C1 |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129557 |
| By: | Deepak Saraswat; Shwetlena Sabarwal; Lindsey Lacey; Natasha Jha; Nishith Prakash; Rachel Cohen |
| Abstract: | Nearly 200 million children under five in low- and middle-income countries face developmental deficits, even as access to early childhood services expands. We present evidence from a large-scale randomized controlled trial (N=3, 131 children in 201 schools) in Nepal’s government system testing three models of combining classroom quality with parental engagement. All teachers completed a 15-day training on pedagogy, national standards, and caregiver engagement, after which schools were randomly assigned to models varying whether caregiver sessions were led by teachers alone, by teachers supported with in-class helpers, or by external facilitators. The intervention increased children’s developmental outcomes by 0.10–0.20 standard deviations and improved caregiver engagement by similar magnitudes. Effects were most consistent when teachers received support that sustained classroom quality while engaging families, underscoring the critical role of workload management. Impacts were concentrated among disadvantaged households—those with lower baseline engagement, higher stress, and less education—highlighting the potential to reduce early childhood inequalities. Mechanism analysis shows the program shifted home and school inputs from substitutes to complements, creating mutually reinforcing pathways for child development. These findings demonstrate that modest, system-embedded reforms can generate scalable improvements in early childhood human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | early childhood development, cognitive skills, non-cognitive skills, Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ), Nepal |
| JEL: | J13 J24 I21 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12160 |
| By: | Françoise Simon (Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar, CREGO - Centre de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Marine Cambefort (Humanis - Hommes et management en société / Humans and management in society - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg, EM Strasbourg - École de Management de Strasbourg = EM Strasbourg Business School - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | As part of their institutional work, brands mobilize their social standing to signal their value, societal appropriateness, and power to consumers. Drawing on the microfoundations of social judgment, this study describes celebrities and influencers as two distinct categories of brand endorsers in terms of legitimacy, reputation, and status and explores how these consumer judgments affect brand social standing. A mixed-methods approach is used to investigate the structure of endorsers' social judgments, based on a qualitative study and lexicometric analysis of a 726-consumer panel. The results show that social judgments exhibit contrasting poles of meaning depending on the endorser category. Celebrity endorsers are brand-centered with abstract and symbolic legitimacy, whereas influencer endorsers exhibit concrete and product-centered legitimacy. In terms of reputation and status, celebrity endorsers are perceived as having a positive reputation and high status, while influencers are judged as more nuanced, with reality TV influencers potentially damaging brand image because of reputational stigma. This study extends the literature on advertising endorsement by offering insights into the endorser legitimacy construct as a form of brand-endorser congruency, whose strength and construal level depend on the endorser category. It provides new findings on the social comparison processes involved in brand endorsement and the contamination of negative biases. At the level of brand management, the study clarifies the nature of the complementarity of the two endorser categories and the tensions that their coexistence can engender. From a managerial perspective, the study delineates multi-endorsement brand strategies and the risks associated with influencer partnerships |
| Keywords: | Endorsement Celebrity Influencer Reputation Status Legitimacy, Legitimacy, Status, Reputation, Influencer, Celebrity, Endorsement |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05235153 |
| By: | Xu, R.; Fan, Q. |
| Abstract: | We propose a characteristics-augmented quantile factor (QCF) model in which unknown factor loading functions are linked to a large set of observed individual-level (e.g., bond- or stock-specific) covariates via a single-index projection. The single-index specification offers a parsimonious, interpretable, and statistically efficient way to nonparametrically characterize the time-varying loadings, thereby circumventing the curse of dimensionality in flexible nonparametric models. Employing a three-step sieve estimation procedure, the QCF model exhibits superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance in simulations. We derive asymptotic properties for the estimators of the latent factors, loading functions, and index parameters. In an empirical study, we analyse the dynamic distributional structure of U.S. corporate bond returns from 2003 to 2020. Our approach outperforms bench-mark models, including the quantile Fama-French five-factor model and the quantile latent factor model, especially in the tails (Ï„ = 0.05, 0.95). The model uncovers state-dependent risk exposures influenced by characteristics such as bond and equity volatility, coupon rate, and spread. Finally, we offer economic interpretations of the latent factors. |
| Keywords: | Quantile Latent Factor, Panel Nonlinear Regression, Single-Index Model, Corporate Bonds |
| JEL: | C14 C31 C32 C38 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2524 |
| By: | Charles Taragin; Benjamin Wallace; Eddie Watkins |
| Abstract: | We study how corporate debt influences the competitive outcomes of horizontal and conglomerate mergers. In contrast to standard models where debt does not affect pricing, our framework shows that mergers can spread fixed debt obligations across a broader product portfolio, creating an "insurance effect" against adverse demand shocks. This effect interacts with the traditional recapture effect from reduced competition. Using numerical simulations and a case study of a major casino merger, we find that debt can either dampen or amplify post-merger price increases, depending on the merger's structure and the market environment. |
| Keywords: | Financial structure; Merger simulation; Horizontal markets |
| JEL: | L41 L13 K21 G32 G34 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-80 |
| By: | Constance Marette; Camilo Umana Dajud; Vincent Vicard |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how multinational enterprises (MNEs) adapted their global operations in the post COVID-19 period. Using the pandemic as a natural experiment, we analyze how MNEs adjusted employment across their foreign and domestic affiliates in response to economic disruptions and shifting perceptions. Leveraging a crosscountry, firm-level dataset, we employ a difference-in-differences approach among treated groups to assess the causal differential response of MNEs relative to domestic firms. MNEs outperformed domestic firms following the pandemic, driven primarily by the stronger performance of their domestic affiliates. We also find evidence of home bias in adjustments within MNEs: employment growth was significantly higher in domestic affiliates than in foreign ones. These patterns intensified through 2022, suggesting persistent shifts in MNE strategies. |
| Keywords: | Multinational enterprises;COVID-19 crisis;Globalization;Reshoring;Establishment response;Affiliates' network;Foreign ownership |
| JEL: | F23 F61 L22 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-10 |
| By: | Daniel O. Beltran; Julio L. Ortiz |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic recovery created inflationary pressures globally. These effects, however, were felt differently across countries and regions. |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-09-19-3 |
| By: | Tino, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the importance of labor market power and firm productivity for understanding the immigrant-native pay gap. Using matched employer-employee data from Canada, I estimate a wage-posting model that incorporates two-sided heterogeneity and strategic interactions in wage setting. In the model, firms mark down wages below the marginal revenue product of labor (MRPL), and the equilibrium immigrantnative pay gap arises from differences in wage markdowns and MRPL. The findings suggest that immigrants earn 77% of their MRPL on average, compared to 84% for natives. I also decompose the immigrant-native pay gap using counterfactual exercises that account for general equilibrium responses of workers and firms. The results of the counterfactuals suggest that (i) differences in labor supply curves contribute significantly to earnings inequality between immigrants and natives; (ii) immigrants tend to work at more productive firms, driven by their tendency to work in cities where firms are more productive on average; and (iii) heterogeneity in firm productivity magnifies the contribution of labor supply differences to the immigrant-native pay gap, highlighting the importance of interaction effects. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, inequality, monopsony, firm productivity, immigrant-native earnings differential |
| JEL: | J01 J15 J23 J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:327118 |