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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Vanessa Schmidt; Hannah Magdalena Seidl |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of movements in aggregate lending standards on macroeconomic aggregates and inequality. We show in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous households and housing that a looser loan-to-value (LTV) ratio stimulates housing demand, nondurable consumption, and output. Our model implies that the LTV shock transmits to macroeconomic aggregates through higher household liquidity and a general-equilibrium increase in house prices and labor income. We also show that a looser LTV ratio redistributes housing wealth from the top 10% of the housing wealth distribution to the bottom 50%, indicating an overall decrease in inequality. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous agents, incomplete markets, housing, macroprudential policies |
| JEL: | E12 E21 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2140 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | We contend that ambivalence or uncertainty regarding the error terms may be the root cause of many methodological misunderstandings in time-series econometrics. Macroeconomic time series have imprecise relationships, and early econometricians invariably discovered that any estimated relationship would only fit with errors. Second part is designed to quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted A Classical Macroeconometric Data Model for the Republic of Moldova (MDM) in context of Neo-Classical Approach of the Economy. We have interpreted the term error from the perspective of 7 macroeconomic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (error, pension), Inflation Rate (error, wage and salary, ) Interest Rate (error, unemployment) Unemployment Rate (error inflation rate), Budget Fiscal Deficit (error, ra-gap vat gap estimation), Public Debt (ra-gap vat gap estimation) and Exchange Rate (error, gross domestic product). |
| Keywords: | error term, time-series, dynamic models, simultaneous-equations models, interpretation, econometrics. |
| JEL: | B23 C15 C22 C30 C32 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125855 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis; Balaban, Georgiana |
| Abstract: | This paper presents two objectives: in the first part, we make a presentation of interest rate equations in a historical overview, from Irwing Fisher to John Maynard Keynes. Second part is designed to quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted A Classical Macroeconometric Data Model for the Republic of Moldova (MDM) in context of Neo-Classical Approach of the Economy. This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the Republic of Moldova, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening understanding of the functioning of market economy. |
| Keywords: | Republic of Moldova, macroeconometric modelling, open and small economy; inflation; interest rate; economic growth; Classical economics; Keynesian economics. |
| JEL: | C13 E21 E30 E41 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125856 |
| By: | Juvonen, Petteri; Sariola, Mikko |
| Abstract: | DSGE models are often specified so that the long-run variation of variables is driven by one or two common trends, which rarely holds in the data. We find that when this discrepancy exists, high-frequency components (measurement errors) capture variable-specific time variation in trends. When high-frequency components are restricted to be small or ignored, the discrepancy is captured by the model component, which distorts shock decompositions. We show that incorporating variable-specific trend components directly into the measurement equations yields a decomposition in which the high-frequency, model, and trend components each capture what they are intended to. We also find trend modelling useful in forecasting. |
| Keywords: | DSGE, trends, business cycles |
| JEL: | E17 E32 E37 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:325481 |
| By: | Sylvain Leduc; Anna L. Paulson; Trevor A. Reeve; Stacey Tevlin |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve’s first formal, public review of its monetary policy framework (MPF) was completed in 2020 and included a plan to review monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices roughly every five years. The review conducted in 2025 thus constituted the Fed’s first five-year review of its MPF. |
| Date: | 2025–08–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-08-22-1 |
| By: | Manuela Magalhâes (Universidad de Málaga); Jesús Rodríguez-López (Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | Spanish aggregate productivity was negatively correlated with the business cycle from 2000 to 2014, but this correlation later turned positive between 2015 and 2019. In this paper, we ask if this change is related to financial restrictions and firm creation and destruction in Spain. Using firm- level administrative data, we reach the following conclusions. First, during the 2000–07 expansion, low-productivity firms with access to financial resources were able to continue operating; in turn, this led to a crowding-out of financial resources, and forced high-productivity but financially vulnerable firms to close. We find that on average exiting firms were significantly larger and more productive than entering firms, a situation that entailed productivity losses in this period. Second, following the tightening of credit conditions after 2008, we find a more efficient selection at both exit and entry margins: exiting firms were less productive than entering firms. Both findings help explain, at least in part, the change in the productivity-GDP correlation. Finally, in a counterfactual exercise we quantify the effects of type-I selection errors, i.e., the closure of productive but financially vulnerable firms: had market selection not presented type-I errors, relative total factor productivity at the exit margin would have been 3% to 6.5% higher, while gains in relative labor productivity would have ranged between 27% and 46%. |
| Keywords: | Firm exit and entry, business cycle, cleansing effects, miss-selection, firm survival. |
| JEL: | E23 E32 E44 G32 L11 L25 L60 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:25.02 |
| By: | Heikkinen, Joni; Heimonen, Kari |
| Abstract: | This paper examines online search activity's ability to capture consumers' intentions and enhance short-term forecasting of key economic outcomes. Economic decisions such as consumption and investment are typically preceded by intentions, which, while difficult to observe directly, often manifest as online information-seeking behavior. Using a large, high-frequency dataset of search activity, we nowcast U.S. consumer confidence and private consumption, finding that legal and governmental searches are associated with shifts in consumer confidence, while real estate and news-related searches add value to forecasts of private consumption. We then extend the analysis to GDP nowcasting for selected OECD economies, assessing the predictive performance of search-based indicators across different contexts. Overall, our findings highlight the value of digital attention data as behaviorally grounded signals of consumer intentions, offering a timely complement to traditional economic indicators. |
| Keywords: | nowcasting, online search behavior, consumer confidence, private consumption, GDP growth |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:325480 |
| By: | Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the major changes in Russia's macroeconomic policies since the early 1990s. For decades, the quest for economic stability and security have been leading principles of Russian macroeconomic policies. To understand the genesis of these macroeconomic policy choices the paper first provides a chronology of macroeconomic policies from the early 1990's to the aftermath of the global pandemic thirty years later. The second part describes how since the fullscale invasion on Ukraine, Western economic sanctions and the emerging war economy have fundamentally changed Russia's policy choices in fiscal and monetary policies as well as in Russia's trade relations. |
| Keywords: | Russia, fiscal policy, monetary policy |
| JEL: | O10 P20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:325489 |
| By: | Leopoldo Gómez Ramírez |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000383:021541 |
| By: | Hyunduk Suh; Nathaniel A. Throckmorton |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how very low fertility rates in East Asia might affect inflation in the face of fiscal limits. In a calibrated overlapping-generations model, low fertility rates cause the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise, which can push the tax rate to a political ceiling and force either monetary accommodation or reduced transfers to retirees. The fiscal limit creates inflationary pressure relative to a scenario with no fiscal limit, adding to our understanding of possible inflation outcomes in aging economies. Korea faces the strongest demographic headwind and is projected to experience the earliest fiscal limit and highest inflation rates, with inflation projected to peak roughly 10 years later and 2.5pp higher with a fiscal limit than without one. Taiwan’s more favorable initial fiscal conditions help reduce inflationary pressure, and China benefits from a delayed demographic transition that leads to lower inflation, despite worse initial fiscal conditions than Taiwan. In all countries, a higher tax rate ceiling or older retirement age effectively reduce peak inflation. |
| Keywords: | low fertility; demographic transition; population aging; East Asia; overlapping generations model; fiscal sustainability; inflation projections |
| JEL: | J11 H63 E52 E63 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:171 |
| By: | Olympia Bover (CEMFI); Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Yuliya Kulikova (Bank of Spain); Alessandro Ruggieri (CUNER Universidad); Carlos Sanz (Banco de Espana) |
| Abstract: | Family-friendly policies aim to help women balance work and family life, encouraging them to participate in the labor market. How effective are such policies in increasing fertility? We answer this question using a search model of the labor market where firms make hiring, promotion, and firing decisions, taking into account how these decisions affect workers’ fertility incentives and labor force participation decisions. We estimate the model using administrative data from Spain, a country with very low fertility and a highly regulated labor market. We use the model to study family-friendly policies and demonstrate that firms' reactions result in a trade-off: policies that increase fertility reduce women's participation in the labor market and lower their lifetime earnings. |
| Keywords: | flexibility, search and matching, human capital accumulation, gender gap, welfare |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-006 |
| By: | Christopher L. Foote; Shigeru Fujita; Amanda M. Michaud; Joshua Montes |
| Abstract: | We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can provide complementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market. A joint analysis of job vacancies and unemployment in a Beveridge curve diagram is helpful when structural shocks affect the labor market and when the labor market is very tight, while the employment-to population ratio is useful late in expansions, when increases in employment tend to arise from higher labor force participation. Additional indicators—including wage growth and worker flows—can complement the core indicators we discuss. We draw on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to evaluate the effectiveness of various indicators. |
| Keywords: | Maximum employment; unemployment; job vacancies; labor force participation; wages; business cycle |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J23 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:101756 |
| By: | Bill Martin |
| Abstract: | What should be the goals of social infrastructure, and the best means to achieve them? Social infrastructure is a new term to describe the welfare state, whose conceptual foundations were laid in Lord Beveridge's Report, Social Insurance and Allied Services (1942). A good government, said Beveridge, should tackle five evil ‘giants’, namely disease, ignorance, squalor, idleness, and want. These could be overcome with a universal free health service, public education, public housing, full employment, and income insurance (especially old age pensions, unemployment, and disability protection). Today, nearly every country has policies related to these goals, but with widely varying degrees of success. This chapter focuses on the unequal fulfilment of the rights to universal free higher education, health care, and the central bank’s operations in monetary policy as it affects the rights to social security, full employment with fair pay, and housing. It focuses on the UK, EU and US for comparisons. It contends that public education and health, free at the point of use, with democratic governance, produce the best outcomes: found more in Europe, not the US. It contends that central bank goals that place full employment and inflation on equal levels are superior: found more in the US than in Europe. Much is still to be desired in all systems to fulfil universal human rights. |
| Keywords: | Welfare, social, infrastructure, education, health, central bank, housing, inflation, unemployment, university, human rights |
| JEL: | K20 K23 K31 K38 I18 I28 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp544 |
| By: | Oliver Ashtari-Tafti; Rodrigo Guimaraes; Gabor Pinter; Jean-Charles Wijnandts |
| Abstract: | We show that monetary policy shocks move long-term government bond yields only when market liquidity is high and arbitrageurs are well capitalized. This liquidity state dependence operates entirely through real term premia, not expectations. Using novel transaction-level data on the US Treasury market, we find that arbitrageurs trade about 40% more duration during FOMC meetings in high-liquidity periods. We propose ways of enriching standard term-structure models to rationalize our evidence that constraints on arbitrage capital suppress transmission. The results introduce new empirical moments for theories of limits to arbitrage, and underscore the role of liquidity conditions in shaping the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, New Keynesian model, natural interest rate |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1289 |
| By: | Chen, Peng; Zhu, Jin; Zhu, Junxian; Wang, Xueqin |
| Abstract: | We consider the probabilistic simplex-constrained sparse recovery problem. The commonly used Lasso-type penalty for promoting sparsity is ineffective in this context since it is a constant within the simplex. Despite this challenge, fortunately, simplex constraint itself brings a self-regularization property, i.e., the empirical risk minimizer without any sparsity-promoting procedure obtains the usual Lasso-type estimation error. Moreover, we analyze the iterates of a projected gradient descent method and show its convergence to the ground truth sparse solution in the geometric rate until a satisfied statistical precision is attained. Although the estimation error is statistically optimal, the resulting solution is usually more dense than the sparse ground truth. To further sparsify the iterates, we propose a method called PERMITS via embedding a tail screening procedure, i.e., identifying negligible components and discarding them during iterations, into the projected gradient descent method. Furthermore, we combine tail screening and the special information criterion to balance the trade-off between fitness and complexity. Theoretically, the proposed PERMITS method can exactly recover the ground truth support set under mild conditions and thus obtain the oracle property. We demonstrate the statistical and computational efficiency of PERMITS with both synthetic and real data. The implementation of the proposed method can be found in https://github.com/abess-team/PERMITS. |
| Keywords: | projected gradient descent; self-regularization; simplex constrained sparse recovery; special information criterion; tail screening |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129540 |
| By: | Rafael Araujo; Vitor Possebom; Gabriela Setti |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of environmental law enforcement on violence in the Brazilian Amazon. The introduction of the Real-Time Deforestation Detection System (DETER), which enabled the government to monitor deforestation in real time and issue fines for illegal clearing, significantly reduced homicides in the region. To identify causal effects, we exploit exogenous variation in satellite monitoring generated by cloud cover as an instrument for enforcement intensity. Our estimates imply that the expansion of state presence through DETER prevented approximately 1, 477 homicides per year, a 15% reduction in homicides. These results show that curbing deforestation produces important social co-benefits, strengthening state presence and reducing violence in regions marked by institutional fragility and resource conflict. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.06076 |
| By: | Ambler, Kate; Balana, Bedru; Bloem, Jeffrey R.; Maruyama, Eduardo; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi |
| Abstract: | Access to credit can be important for improving the performance of smallholders, as it enables farmers to purchase inputs while sustaining their livelihoods. In rural Nigeria, however, access to credit—particularly from formal financial institutions—is limited. As a result, farmers often have little to no choice but to depend on alternative credit sources, including informal lending. Small holder agricultural households often turn to friends and family, or local money lenders and other informal and semi-formal sources to meet their credit needs (EFInA, 2020). |
| Keywords: | access to finance; credit; smallholders; inputs; repayment of debts; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:175654 |
| By: | Sabbagh, Helena; Biebeler, Hendrik |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Studie arbeitet für den Beruf Kauffrau/Kaufmann für Büromanagement heraus, welche Instrumente und Verfahren Betriebe im Ausbildungsprozess einsetzen, um eine gelingende Ausbildung zu gewährleisten. Die Untersuchung ermöglicht einen Einblick in die konkrete Ausgestaltung und Nutzung von Planungs- und Gestaltungshilfen in der Ausbildungspraxis. Darunter fallen - neben den verbindlichen Elementen betrieblicher Ausbildungsplan und Berichtsheft - weitere freiwillige Evaluierungs- und Feedbackmaßnahmen. In der Studie wurden 238 Telefoninterviews mit Ausbildungsverantwortlichen und 13 betriebliche Fallbeispiele zum Beruf Kauffrau/Kaufmann für Büromanagement ausgewertet. Dabei werden die drei Ausbildungsbereiche Handwerk, Industrie und Handel sowie öffentlicher Dienst miteinander verglichen. |
| Keywords: | Betriebliche Berufsausbildung, Kaufmann für Büromanagement, Ausbildungsplanung, Ausbildungskonzeption, Ausbildungsnachweis, Qualitätssicherung, Ausbildungsbereich, Vergleich, Fallbeispiel, Befragung |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bibbfb:325328 |
| By: | Anas Abuzayed; Michael G Pollitt; Mario Liebensteiner; Simone Hochgreb |
| Keywords: | Deep decarbonisation, low-carbon fuels, fuel-blending, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2520 |
| By: | Nikhil Kumar |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a social learning model where the network structure is endogenously determined by signal precision and dimension choices. Agents not only choose the precision of their signals and what dimension of the state to learn about, but these decisions directly determine the underlying network structure on which social learning occurs. We show that under a fixed network structure, the optimal precision choice is sublinear in the agent's stationary influence in the network, and this individually optimal choice is worse than the socially optimal choice by a factor of $n^{1/3}$. Under a dynamic network structure, we specify the network by defining a kernel distance between agents, which then determines how much weight agents place on one another. Agents choose dimensions to learn about such that their choice minimizes the squared sum of influences of all agents: a network with equally distributed influence across agents is ideal. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.00249 |
| By: | Francesco Ravazzolo; Luca Rossini; Andrea Viselli |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel Bayesian reverse unrestricted mixed-frequency model applied to a panel of nine European electricity markets. Our model analyzes the impact of daily fossil fuel prices and hourly renewable energy generation on hourly electricity prices, employing a hierarchical structure to capture cross-country interdependencies and idiosyncratic factors. The inclusion of random effects demonstrates that electricity market integration both mitigates and amplifies shocks. Our results highlight that while renewable energy sources consistently reduce electricity prices across all countries, gas prices remain a dominant driver of cross-country electricity price disparities and instability. This finding underscores the critical importance of energy diversification, above all on renewable energy sources, and coordinated fossil fuel supply strategies for bolstering European energy security. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.23289 |
| By: | Dirks, Maximilian W. |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical conflicts significantly reshape global investment patterns, potentially creating unexpected economic opportunities. Using the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a quasi-exogenous shock, this study estimates the impact of redirected foreign direct investment (FDI) flows on economic output in bloc-free countries following this major geopolitical event. Employing a Difference-in-Differences model using Orbis Crossborder investment data, the findings reveal a sharp decline in Western FDI into Russia and Russia-leaning countries, alongside a significant increase in cross-border investment in bloc-free nations, with Brazil, India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia among the primary beneficiaries. Using a Bayesian VAR, I estimate that these windfall FDI have increased GDP in the recipient countries by up to 2 %, underscoring the economic benefits associated with geopolitical neutrality. |
| Abstract: | Geopolitische Konflikte verändern die globalen Investitionsmuster erheblich und können unerwartete wirtschaftliche Chancen eröffnen. Die russische Invasion in die Ukraine bietet die Möglichkeit, die Auswirkungen umgeleiteter ausländischer Direktinvestitionen (FDI) auf die Wirtschaftsleistung blockfreier Länder im Zuge dieses bedeutenden geopolitischen Ereignisses zu untersuchen. Unter Verwendung eines Differenz-in-Differenzen-Modells und von Orbis-Daten zu grenzüberschreitenden Investitionen zeigen die Ergebnisse einen starken Rückgang westlicher FDI in Russland und russlandfreundlichen Staaten sowie einen deutlichen Anstieg der Investitionen in blockfreien Ländern. Zu den Hauptnutznießern zählen Brasilien, Indien, Mexiko und Saudi-Arabien. Mittels eines Bayesianischen VAR-Modells schätze ich, dass diese exogenen Direktinvestitionen das BIP in den Empfängerländern um bis zu 2% gesteigert haben - ein Befund, der die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile geopolitischer Neutralität unterstreicht. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, geoeconomics, fragmentation |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:325493 |
| By: | Brian Jabarian; Alex Imas |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) tools are increasingly used for written deliverables. This has created demand for distinguishing human-generated text from AI-generated text at scale, e.g., ensuring assignments were completed by students, product reviews written by actual customers, etc. A decision-maker aiming to implement a detector in practice must consider two key statistics: the False Negative Rate (FNR), which corresponds to the proportion of AI-generated text that is falsely classified as human, and the False Positive Rate (FPR), which corresponds to the proportion of human-written text that is falsely classified as AI-generated. We evaluate three leading commercial detectors—Pangram, OriginalityAI, GPTZero—and an open-source one —RoBERTa—on their performance in minimizing these statistics using a large corpus spanning genres, lengths, and models. Commercial detectors outperform open-source, with Pangram achieving near-zero FNR and FPR rates that remain robust across models, threshold rules, ultra-short passages, "stubs" (≤ 50 words) and ’humanizer’ tools. A decision-maker may weight one type of error (Type I vs. Type II) as more important than the other. To account for such a preference, we introduce a framework where the decision-maker sets a policy cap—a detector-independent metric reflecting tolerance for false positives or negatives. We show that Pangram is the only tool to satisfy a strict cap (FPR ≤ 0.005) without sacrificing accuracy. This framework is especially relevant given the uncertainty surrounding how AI may be used at different stages of writing, where certain uses may be encouraged (e.g., grammar correction) but may be difficult to separate from other uses. |
| JEL: | D6 M15 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34223 |
| By: | Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future); Robertson, Molly (Resources for the Future); Look, Wesley (Resources for the Future); Bautista, Eddie; Ko, Eunice |
| Abstract: | New York State is currently planning for and implementing the New York Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), which was passed in 2019 to promote renewable energy and battery storage, transportation electrification, building decarbonization, and climate resiliency and adaptation. The CLCPA directs the state to reduce statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40 percent by 2030 and 85 percent by 2050 (relative to 1990 levels)—and to achieve net-zero GHG emissions economy-wide. In meeting these targets, the state must prevent disproportionate burdens on disadvantaged communities (DACs) and prioritize GHG and copollutant reductions in DACs as defined by the Climate Justice Working Group. Additionally, Section 0117 of Article 75 of the Environmental Conservation Law, an environmental justice (EJ) provision of the CLCPA, requires that DACs receive at least 35 to 40 percent of climate investments and benefits.The CLCPA established the Climate Action Council to develop a framework for how the state could meet the CLCPA goals and commitments. In January 2023, the Council released its final Scoping Plan, which outlined strategies to achieve the GHG and net-zero emissions targets and increase renewable energy usage. A cap-trade-and-invest program was among the strategies identified as a tool that could help the state hit its emissions targets and generate revenue for climate action and investments. The New York State cap-trade-and-invest program is intended to encourage decarbonization by capping carbon emissions, requiring emitters to purchase allowances to emit, and subsidizing (the “invest” side) the adoption of low-carbon technologies such as heat pumps.Since early 2023, the governor and state have announced and focused on a cap-trade-and-invest program (“NYCI”) as a priority measure to reduce GHG emissions economy-wide. The state has named it the New York Cap-and-Invest or NYCI, however, regulatory agencies have expressed that there will be a form of trading so we refer to it as cap-trade-and invest to be clear about the program. Draft cap-trade-and-invest regulations are expected to be released by the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) and New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in mid-2024, with a public hearing and comment period to follow. As currently described by state agencies, cap-trade-and-invest will establish an auction for emissions allowances and allow entities to freely trade allowances in a secondary market, as in the economy-wide carbon cap-and-trade systems of California, Washington State, and the European Union (NYSERDA and DEC 2023). However, New York State’s cap-trade-and-invest must additionally meet the CLCPA’s explicit requirement to not disproportionately burden DACs and to prioritize emissions reductions in them. The preproposal released by NYSERDA and DEC in December 2023 offered some ideas about how the program might ensure benefits for DACs and highlighted its willingness to consider implementing facility-specific caps outside the cap-trade-and-invest program. The preproposal indicates that the caps would be administered separately under DEC and that the state is seeking additional guidance on how these caps might be implemented (NYSERDA and DEC 2023).Our research analyzes the emissions effects of different cap-trade-and-invest policy designs at the statewide and community level Communities are defined by census tracts in this analysis. in New York. The first policy design is a traditional cap-and-trade program with full trading allowed between sectors and with no facility-specific restrictions (the full trading case, or FTC). Because of modeling constraints, we were unable to model a case with carbon allowances that can’t be traded in a secondary market, Our modeling reflects a system with a free market for allowances because obligated entities will only pay up to their marginal cost of carbon abatement for a carbon allowance. In a system without a secondary market, entities may behave differently, or some allowances may end up stranded with obligated entities that cannot use them or sell them. We cannot capture these behaviors in our models. so the second case restricts trading through facility- and sector-specific caps designed to prioritize emissions reductions in DACs and limit their pollution burden (the restricted trading case, or RTC). Both the FTC and RTC obligate the power sector and are designed with caps that assume achievement of the 40 by ‘30 target mentioned above. We do not model all sectors, so we establish an emissions budget for the modeled sectors estimated to reflect economywide reductions under the 40 by ‘30 target (40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030). See Appendix E for more detail. The preproposal analysis released by the state signaled that the electricity sector may not be obligated to purchase allowances in New York state cap-trade-and-invest program but would be covered by the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. We discuss how that policy may impact the interpretation of our results in the conclusion. Our analysis assesses the two policy designs and compares them with a business-as-usual (BAU) policy case where no economy-wide carbon pricing or trading policy is implemented.In this report, we provide GHG and copollutant emissions (fine particulate matter, PM2.5; nitrogen oxides, NOX; and sulfur dioxide, SO2) results, along with a variety of economic metrics. Air quality results, along with an additional policy case, will be forthcoming in a separate issue brief. In that analysis, we leverage a model that considers how direct emissions covered in this report combine, migrate, and settle into PM2.5 concentrations at the census tract level. The initial emissions analysis presented in this first report provides key insights on direct pollutants, particularly in the power sector, where our model provides detailed data at the latitude-longitude level about the proximity of copollutant emissions to DACs.Our analysis has revealed several insights:A cap-trade-and-invest program reduces carbon emissions in all modeled sectors beyond the baseline policies included in the BAU. Implementing either modeled cap-trade-and-invest system (FTC or RTC) yields an approximately 22 percent reduction in emissions from the BAU statewide in 2030.At facilities within one mile of a DAC, facility-specific caps (RTC) increase the average facility direct PM2.5 emissions reductions (from 2016) by nine percentage points, from 80 to 89 percent, compared with a scenario with a cap-trade-and-invest program that doesn’t include facility-specific caps. SO2 and NOX emissions behave similarly.The facility-specific caps included in the RTC reduce New York direct PM2.5 emissions within a mile from DACs on net by over 44, 000 pounds in 2030 (with significant reductions in SO2 and NOX emissions). The caps have virtually no impact on retail electricity prices.Sector-specific caps (RTC) that force greater emissions reductions in specific sectors reduce GHG emissions by 4 percent more in the residential sector (or 0.76 MMT CO2e) relative to a cap-trade-and-invest program with full trading across sectors (FTC).Sector-specific caps (RTC) that require fewer GHG emissions reductions in the transportation and power sectors lead to lower gasoline and residential electricity prices relative to a cap-trade-and-invest program with no sector-specific caps (FTC). Prices are lower by 10 cents per gallon and 30 cents per MWh respectively. The increase in average household heating costs is outweighed by the reduction in average household transportation costs.Our research demonstrates that cap-trade-and-invest policy design choices can affect the distribution and cost of GHG emissions reductions. Including facility-specific caps can ensure a minimum level of reductions for each facility without driving costs significantly higher, compared with not having facility-specific caps. Additionally, sector-specific caps with no trading between sectors can help ensure a minimum level of reductions in each sector while mitigating some important household costs. Our cost findings reflect the assumption that New York State will make generous investments in electrification subsidies for households. The details of a cap-trade-and-invest program, such as those we model, will determine whether New York State simultaneously achieves its GHG emissions goals, prevents disproportionate burdens in DACs from conventional pollution emissions and concentrations, and produces revenue that can sustain and drive climate action and investments by the state. For EJ stakeholders, this research is essential because they will not support a cap-trade-and-invest system that may further harm the health and quality of life for low-income communities and communities of color, which could violate Section 7(3) of the CLCPA. |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-24-05 |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | This article introduces the ordonomic research program and explains its methodological roots. It shows how a German-speaking line of tradition has developed from Order Economics (Ordnungsökonomik) through Order Ethics (Ordnungsethik) to Ordonomics (Ordonomik). Ordonomics integrates central ideas of its predecessors into a theory of societal learning processes, which regards institutions and ideas as key variables. Using a three-level model, the connections between rule-following, rule-setting, and rule-finding are analyzed. The aim is a functional utilization of systemic constraints for the realization of moral desiderata. Ten Case studies and three appendices demonstrate practical applications of the ordonomic approach to institutional and ideational ethics. |
| Abstract: | Dieser Beitrag stellt das ordonomische Forschungsprogramm vor und erläutert seine methodologischen Wurzeln. Gezeigt wird, wie sich eine deutschsprachige Traditionslinie von der Ordnungsökonomik über die Ordnungsethik bis hin zur Ordonomik entwickelt hat. Die Ordonomik integriert zentrale Ideen ihrer Vorläufer zu einer Theorie gesellschaftlicher Lernprozesse, die Institutionen und Ideen als Schlüsselgrößen betrachtet. Durch ein Drei-Ebenen-Modell werden Zusammenhänge zwischen Regelbefolgung, Regelsetzung und Regelfindung analysiert. Ziel ist eine funktionale Indienstnahme systemischer Sachzwänge zur Verwirklichung moralischer Anliegen. Zehn Fallstudien und drei Anhänge demonstrieren praktische Anwendungen der ordonomischen Institutionen- und Ideen-Ethik. |
| Keywords: | order economics, order ethics, ordonomics, moral paradox of modernity, societal learning processes, institutional ethics, ideational ethics, ordo responsibility, moral commitments as a factor of production, monstrosity imagination, mandated schizophrenia, Ordnungsökonomik, Ordnungsethik, Ordonomik, Moralparadoxon der Moderne, gesellschaftliche Lernprozesse, Institutionenethik, Ideenethik, Ordnungsverantwortung, Moral als Produktionsfaktor, Monstrositäts-Imagination, verordnete Schizophrenie |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:325828 |
| By: | Julie Regolo (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Cédric Gendre (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Poméon (US ODR - Observatoire des Programmes Communautaires de Développement Rural - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This article aims to assess the impact of the Geographical Indications (GIs) protection policy on the sustainable development of agriculture in mainland France. More specifically, it analyses the impact over the last decade of the increase in the territorial magnitude of agri-food GIs on agricultural economic performance, agricultural employment and agricultural pressures on the environment (biodiversity and water quality). The magnitude of GIs is assessed using two distinct indicators: the proportion of farmers involved in GIs and the diversity of GI products within each territory. We use data at a fine territorial scale (cantonal level – NUTS4) and a meso-economic approach. We estimate a difference in differences econometric model to continuous variables, and we control for the effect of the presence of operators involved in organic farming in the territory, and of payments under the second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy, which may impact sustainable development indicators. The results show that, all other factors being equal, cantons where there has been an increase in the presence of GIs over the last decade have seen greater improvements in their economic, social and environmental performance than cantons where there has been no increase. They also indicate the distinct and complementary effects of GI diversity and intensity in the territory, in terms of contribution to sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Territory France, Geographical indications, Sustainable development |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05234723 |
| By: | Obst, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Many employees work more than they would prefer. This paper examines whether social comparisons contribute to this mismatch by inducing individuals to prioritize income over leisure. I use a within-subject survey experiment with university students in which participants repeatedly choose between higher income and reduced working hours under two conditions: one where their choice affects relative income and one where it does not. When upward comparisons are present, the share choosing higher income rises from 36% to 47%, consistent with status concerns driving longer working hours. The design mirrors a prisoner's dilemma: individuals prefer shorter hours but work more to avoid falling behind in income. When the additional income is tied to specific spending categories, the strongest increases in choosing higher income occur for clothing and shoes, food, education, health, and private pension plans-indicating that status concerns extend beyond conspicuous consumption to include long-term investments. Consistent with an established measure of status sensitivity (Solnick & Hemenway, 1998), status-oriented individuals respond more strongly to relative income cues. These findings suggest that labor supply decisions can exhibit positional externalities, with implications for working-time coordination and employee wellbeing |
| Keywords: | social comparisons, labor supply, working time preferences, status competition, positional externalities, income inequality |
| JEL: | J22 D91 J31 D31 C83 C99 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:325831 |
| By: | Ivandic, Ria; Kirchmaier, Thomas; Machin, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of international terror attacks on out-group hate crimes committed against Muslims in a local setting. Event studies based on rich administrative data from the Greater Manchester Police on 10 terror attacks reveal an immediate big spike in Islamophobic hate crimes and hate-based incidents when an attack occurs. In subsequent days, the hate crime incidence is magnified by real-time media reports. The attacks create an attitudinal shock that leads residents to perceive local minority groups that share the religion of the attack’s perpetrators as an out-group threat. The overall conclusion is that, even when they reside in places far from where jihadi terror attacks take place, local Muslim populations face a media-magnified likelihood of hate-based victimization. But only those incidents salient to resident populations, because of where they happen or because of the media’s magnification of them, impact the incidence of local hate crimes. |
| Keywords: | international terror attacks; out-group; Islamophobic hate crime; media magnification |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122123 |
| By: | Isaac Ahimbisibwe; Adam Altjmed; Gregory Artemov; Andrés Barrios Fernández; Aspasia Bizopoulou; Martti Kaila; Jin-Tan Liu; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Jose Montalban; Christopher Neilson; Sebastian Otero; Jintao Sun; Xiaoyang Ye |
| Abstract: | Women account for only 35% of global STEM graduates, a share unchanged for a decade. We use administrative microdata from centralized university admissions in ten systems to deliver the first cross-national decomposition of the STEM gender gap into a pipeline gap (academic preparedness) and a choice gap (first-choice field conditional on eligibility). In deferred-acceptance platforms where eligibility is score-based, we isolate preferences from access. The pipeline gap varies widely, from -19 to +31 percentage points across education systems. By contrast, the choice gap is remarkably stable: high-scoring women are 25 percentage points less likely than men to rank STEM first. |
| Keywords: | gender, inequality, STEM, gender gap, centralised application platforms |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2120 |
| By: | Thomas Graeber; Shakked Noy; Christopher Roth; Thomas W. Graeber |
| Abstract: | Information often shapes behavior regardless of its quality: unreliable claims wield influence, while reliable ones are neglected. We propose that this occurs in part because word-of-mouth transmission tends to preserve claims while dropping information about their reliability. We conduct controlled online experiments where participants listen to economic forecasts and pass them on through voice messages. Other participants listen either to original or transmitted audio recordings and report incentivized beliefs. Across various transmitter incentive schemes, a claim’s reliability is lost in transmission much more than the claim itself. Reliable and unreliable information, once filtered through transmission, impact listener beliefs similarly. Mechanism experiments show that reliability is lost not because it is perceived as less relevant or harder to transmit, but because it is less likely to come to mind during transmission. A simple associative-memory framework suggests that reliability information may be less likely to come to mind either because it is less likely to be cued by transmission requests or because attempts to retrieve it face greater interference. Evidence from our experiments, a large corpus of everyday conversations, and economic TV news supports both of these mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | information transmission, word-of-mouth, reliability, memory, TV news |
| JEL: | D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12109 |
| By: | Westerheide, Jule; Matuschek, Ingo; Kleemann, Frank |
| Abstract: | Der Artikel untersucht heterogene Entwicklungspfade dezentralisierter Tarifsysteme nach den einschneidenden arbeitspolitischen Reformen in den EU-Mitgliedsstaaten in der Eurokrise (2010-2012) anhand der kontrastierenden Fallbeispiele Spanien und Griechenland - zwei stark wirtschaftlich und tarifpolitisch betroffenen südeuropäische Staaten. Während in Spanien das Regulationsinteresse der Arbeitgeberverbände und die institutionelle Verankerung der Gewerkschaftsverbände den Sozialen Dialog bewahren, gelingt es in Griechenland aufgrund der Zersplitterung der Verbände und der Hostilität der Arbeitgeberverbände gegenüber Gewerkschaften nicht mehr, die Erosion des Tarifvertragssystems aufzuhalten. Auf Basis von Interviews mit Vertreter:innen der jeweiligen Tarifparteien sowie der Analyse von Positionspapieren und Sekundärliteratur wird die Agency der Verbände - konkreter ihre interessenpolitischen Strategien und ihre insitutionellen wie organisatorischen Machtressourcen - als Einflussgröße der länderspezifischen Tarifverhandlungspraxis diskutiert. Der Artikel plädiert für eine systematische Berücksichtigung der Agency der Interessenverbände in den industriellen Beziehungen in nationalspezifischen Settings bei homogenen EU Policies. |
| Abstract: | A decade after the drastic labor policy reforms in the EU member states following the Euro crisis (2010-2012), this article examines heterogeneous trajectories of decentralized collective bargaining systems in the EU by contrasting the case studies of Spain and Greece - two southern European states that are strongly affected by collective bargaining policies. While in Spain the regulatory interest of the employers' associations and institutional resources of the trade union associations preserve the social dialogue, in Greece, the erosion of the collective bargaining system is ongoing due to the fragmentation of trade unions and the hostility of employers' associations toward trade unions. Based on interviews with representatives of the respective bargaining parties as well as analysis of position papers and secondary literature, the article discusses the agency of the associations - specifically the interest-driven strategies and institutional and organizational power resources - as a factor influencing country-specific collective bargaining practices. The article argues for a systematic consideration of the agency of interest groups in industrial relations in nation-specific settings with homogeneous EU policies. |
| Keywords: | Tarifsysteme, Deregulation in der EU, Gewerkschafts- und Arbeitgeberverbände, vergleichende Studie, collective bargaining, deregulation in the EU, trade unions and employer bodies, comparative studies |
| JEL: | P52 J52 J51 L51 J31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udesoz:325835 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | Why do equity markets in some countries consistently outperform while others suffer from chronic underperformance, volatility, and investor distrust? Why has the canonical equity premium puzzle-first posed by Mehra and Prescott (1985)-remained unresolved despite decades of re finement in consumption-based, production-based, and behavioral asset pricing models? This paper offers a foundational answer: institutions are the missing capital. We argue that differences in institutional quality - such as the strength of property rights, legal enforcement, political stability, democratic accountability, and regulatory claritysystematically shape both the level and volatility of asset returns across countries and time. |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:778 |
| By: | Gaetan de Rassenfosse |
| Abstract: | Intellectual property (IP) rules have the potential to shape cross-border trade far more than their legalistic origins might suggest. Drawing on three decades of evidence, this review shows that stronger IP rights simultaneously create market-power forces that raise prices and market-expansion forces that broaden demand, while dynamic incentives spur quality upgrading and new export varieties. Micro-data and quasi-natural experiments after TRIPS reveal that IP most often boosts trade along the extensive margin and redirects some activity toward licensing and foreign investment. Policy bundling and measurement gaps on the strength of IP rights still cloud causal inference. Future work must map intangible flows and enforcement quality to capture the digital, data-driven frontier of international commerce. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18929 |
| By: | Massimo Bordignon (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Nicolò Gatti (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Gilberto Turati (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how raising awareness of public debt sustainability affects individual attitudes toward debt reduction and fiscal policy preferences. Using a survey experiment on a representative sample of the Italian population, we randomly assign objective information about government debt to citizens, who become more sensitive to the risks of tax increases, spending cuts, and imbalances for future generations. We find no effect on the perception of debt reduction as an urgent policy priority. While remaining highly averse to any tax increase, treated respondents support spending cuts (but not in education and health care) as a policy to reduce the debt burden. We also show that subjects with distorted beliefs about government debt are no more responsive to the information treatment than subjects with correct beliefs, shedding light on the challenges of building a voting majority for debt-stabilizing policies. |
| Keywords: | public debt; fiscal policies; beliefs; information. |
| JEL: | H63 H31 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def144 |
| By: | Ina Ganguli; Megan MacGarvie |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolving trends and policy dynamics of international student migration, focusing on their implications for STEM workforce development and innovation. While the United States has remained a leading destination for international students, recent years have seen a plateau or decline in incoming students, contrasted by growth in countries like Canada, Australia, and emerging hubs such as China and India. International students, particularly in STEM fields, play a critical role in shaping host countries' innovation ecosystems, often transitioning to permanent residents and STEM workers. We review immigration policies, including post-graduation work and residency pathways, highlighting their varying impacts on student inflows and innovation. Policies in Canada and Australia have until recently eased these transitions, while restrictive measures in the U.S. and U.K. have posed challenges. By documenting these trends and policy shifts, we identify gaps in the literature and outline directions for future research at the intersection of international education, immigration, and innovation. |
| JEL: | I23 O31 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34212 |
| By: | Bartlett, Jay (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Within the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), corporate tax credits are the largest source of clean energy funding, so understanding how these credits function is important to market participants and policymakers. In this report, I focus on the IRA’s authorization for both utility-scale solar and wind projects to choose between the investment tax credit (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC). After reviewing the history of the ITC and PTC, including the changes made by the IRA, I consider how the three primary owners of utility-scale solar and wind projects—project sponsors, tax equity investors, and regulated utilities—will decide between incentives. I find that the PTC, in most cases, will be strongly preferred by regulated utilities and project sponsors, but the latter’s preference must be weighed against the interests of tax equity investors, which may favor the ITC. Next, I assess how the ITC and PTC may distort project decisions, with the ITC leading to higher-cost electricity and the PTC leading to lower-value electricity. Because the PTC is likely to be the incentive chosen by most utility-scale solar and onshore wind projects, I discuss technology and policy options to raise the value of electricity from PTC projects. |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-23-20 |
| By: | Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future); Zhu, Yuqi (Resources for the Future); Newell, Richard G. (Resources for the Future); Prest, Brian C. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The future of the global energy system is deeply uncertain, and the choices that are made in the coming years will have enormous consequences for the future of the climate and, indeed, human civilization. To understand how our energy system is changing, each year a variety of organizations produce long-term projections that imagine a wide range of futures based on divergent visions about policies, technologies, prices, and geopolitics.Because these projections vary widely and depend heavily on their varied assumptions and methodologies, they are difficult to compare on an apples-to-apples basis. In this report, we apply a detailed harmonization process to compare 16 scenarios across eight energy outlooks published in 2023, as well as two historical data sources. Taken together, these scenarios offer a broad scope of potential changes to the energy system as envisioned by some of its most knowledgeable organizations. Table 1 lists the historical datasets, outlooks, and scenarios examined here, and additional detail is provided in Section 4. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-24-06 |
| By: | Gaia Dossi; Marta Morando |
| Abstract: | We document that inventors patent and cite technologies aligned with the views of their political party. We link inventors to US voter registration data and map politically polarized issues to technologies. Compared to Republicans, Democrats are one-third more likely to patent technologies addressing climate change mitigation or women's reproductive health and one-third less likely to patent weapons. This holds across economic returns and organization characteristics. Republicans and Democrats are also 20% differently likely to cite these technologies. These findings highlight the importance of inventors' identity - specifically, their party affiliation - in shaping the content and diffusion of their innovation. |
| Keywords: | Diffusion, Innovation, Partisanship, Polarisation, Polarization |
| Date: | 2025–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2116 |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick |
| Abstract: | The study evaluates the effectiveness of a 12-week AI module delivered to non-STEM university students in England, aimed at building students' AI Capital, encompassing AI-related knowledge, skills, and capabilities. An integral part of the process involved the development and validation of the AI Capital of Students scale, used to measure AI Capital before and after the educational intervention. The module was delivered on four occasions to final-year students between 2023 and 2024, with follow-up data collected on students' employment status. The findings indicate that AI learning enhances students' AI Capital across all three dimensions. Moreover, AI Capital is positively associated with academic performance in AI-related coursework. However, disparities persist. Although all demographic groups experienced progress, male students, White students, and those with stronger backgrounds in mathematics and empirical methods achieved higher levels of AI Capital and academic success. Furthermore, enhanced AI Capital is associated with higher employment rates six months after graduation. To provide a theoretical foundation for this pedagogical intervention, the study introduces and validates the AI Learning-Capital-Employment Transition model, which conceptualises the pathway from structured AI education to the development of AI Capital and, in turn, to improved employment outcomes. The model integrates pedagogical, empirical and equity-centred perspectives, offering a practical framework for curriculum design and digital inclusion. The study highlights the importance of targeted interventions, inclusive pedagogy, and the integration of AI across curricula, with support tailored to students' prior academic experience. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, AI literacy, AI Capital, University students, Grades, Academic performance, Employment rates |
| JEL: | I23 I21 J24 J21 O33 O15 I24 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1668 |
| By: | Howell, Sabrina T.; Rathje, Jason; Van Reenen, John; Wong, Jun |
| Abstract: | For governments procuring innovation, one choice is whether to specify desired products (a “Conventional” approach) or allow firms to suggest ideas (an “Open” approach). Using a U.S. Air Force R&D grant program, where Open and Conventional competitions were held simultaneously, we find that Open awards increase both commercial innovation and technology adoption by the military. In contrast, Conventional awards have no positive effects on new technology, but do create more program lock-in. We present evidence that openness matters independently from inducing differential selection, for example of less well-established firms. These results suggest benefits from open approaches to innovation procurement. |
| Keywords: | innovation; defense; R&D; procurement |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O38 H56 H57 |
| Date: | 2025–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128343 |
| By: | Crystal Rust |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new risk modeling framework where chaotic attractors shape the geometry of Bayesian inference. By combining heavy-tailed priors with Lorenz and Rossler dynamics, the models naturally generate volatility clustering, fat tails, and extreme events. We compare two complementary approaches: Model A, which emphasizes geometric stability, and Model B, which highlights rare bursts using Fibonacci diagnostics. Together, they provide a dual perspective for systemic risk analysis, linking Black Swan theory to practical tools for stress testing and volatility monitoring. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.08183 |
| By: | Asena Caner; Belgi Turan; Berna Tari Kasnakoğlu; Yenal Can Yiğit; Donald S. Kenkel; Alan D. Mathios |
| Abstract: | This study investigates consumer stated preferences for manufactured cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, and vapes in Türkiye, with a focus on how product attributes shape choices of adult consumers. A discrete choice experiment embedded in an online survey examines the role of prices of these products, flavor availability, and most importantly the legal status of vapes. Results indicate strong price sensitivity, both to own prices and to the prices of substitutes. In addition, legal status emerges as a critical factor that shapes stated preferences: consumers exhibit a marked aversion to products that are banned or sold illegally. However, scenario analyses suggest that vapes would capture a substantial market share even under strict prohibition. The hypothetical scenario of a complete ban would likely have a modest effect on the cessation of nicotine products while shifting choices toward traditional combustible tobacco products. These findings highlight the limits of prohibition and underscore the importance of regulatory design. In particular, the treatment of legal status, together with pricing and taxation policies, plays a decisive role in shaping consumer behavior and public health outcomes. |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34201 |