|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Ding Dong; Allen Hu; Zhaorui Li; Zheng Liu |
| Abstract: | Using novel measures of information acquisition, we document causal evidence of a feedback loop between firms’ credit access and information acquisition. To examine the macroeconomic implications of this feedback loop, we develop a tractable general equilibrium framework with financial frictions and endogenous information acquisition. In line with the empirical evidence, the model predicts that a rise in information costs raises the level of uncertainty and reduces a firm’s equity value, hampering its credit access. On the other hand, tightened credit constraints restrain activity of high-productivity firms, leading to misallocation that reduces aggregate productivity and firm profits, and discouraging information acquisition. This feedback loop creates a finance-uncertainty trap that substantially amplifies and prolongs business cycle fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | information acquisition; endogenous uncertainty; financial frictions; misallocation; Business Cycles |
| JEL: | D83 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:101432 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K; Okeke, Esther Ngozika; Obiora, Kingsley I. |
| Abstract: | Wars occur frequently in the world today. Wars cause economic distortions, and they lead to adverse human, economic and social consequences. Monetary policy actions can be used to cushion the adverse effects of war on the economy. Monetary authorities can respond to war by developing wartime monetary policy frameworks to control inflation and to support the war economy throughout the war. This article explores some monetary policy options that central banks can adopt during war. They include increase interest rate at the start of the war to control inflation expectations, hold interest rate at the same level when there is high uncertainty around war, decrease interest rate when war is battering the economy on multiple fronts, decrease cash reserve requirements on bank deposits during war as was observed in Russia, keep liquidity ratio fixed or increase it during war as was seen in Ukraine, the sale of government securities during war should be considered as well as and the unpopular and least advisable option of printing money to increase money supply during war. The recommended wartime monetary policy options in the study are useful to economists, central banks and governments who are facing war in their countries. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; central bank interest rate; monetary policy rate; war; economic impact of war; inflation; cash reserve ratio; money supply; liquidity ratio; interest rate; banks |
| JEL: | E42 E44 E51 E52 E58 E59 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125397 |
| By: | Benjamin Knox; Yannick Timmer |
| Abstract: | We study investors’ perceptions of inflation through the lens of a high-frequency event study, documenting they have a stagflationary view of the world. In response to higher-than-expected inflation, investors expect firms’ nominal cash flows to remain stagnant while discount rates increase, resulting in lower stock prices. Both the equity risk premium and nominal risk-free yields rise, but longer-term real yields remain unchanged. Consistent with investors interpreting inflation as a cost shock, investors expect firms with low market power to suffer larger declines in cash flows. Cash flow expectations of equity investors are aligned with those of professional earnings analysts. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Stock returns; Stagnant cash flows; Market power |
| JEL: | G12 E31 E44 L11 |
| Date: | 2025–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-56 |
| By: | Daniel Engler (University of Kassel, Institute of Economics); Gunnar Gutsche (Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics; University of Kassel, Institute of Economics); Andreas Ziegler (University of Kassel, Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Based on a randomized controlled trial, this paper compares individual investment decisions in pre-registered non-incentivized and incentivized choice experiments to examine hypothetical bias. Using data from a representative sample of over 2, 100 individual investors from Germany and France, our econometric analysis reveals that the willingness to pay for sustainable investments is not significantly higher in the non-incentivized setting than in the incentivized setting, which is contrary to predictions from previous studies. The results are robust to various explanations of hypothetical bias and experimental design choices. Individual characteristics tend to have similar estimated effects on the preference for sustainable investments in both experimental settings. The results of our experimental analysis provide insights into the reliability of previous stated choice experiments and guidance for future experiments in (sustainable) finance. Furthermore, our estimation results improve our understanding of individual investment decisions, which is crucial from a policy perspective since individual investors play an important role in financing the transition to a sustainable economy. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable investments, randomized controlled trial, investment choice experiments, hypothetical bias, willingness to pay |
| JEL: | C25 G11 G41 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202515 |
| By: | Dzung Bui (Philipps-Universität Marburg, Marburg Center for Institutional Economics and Sustainability (MACIES)); Bernd Hayo (Philipps-Universität Marburg, Marburg Center for Institutional Economics and Sustainability (MACIES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effect of supply constraints on inflation expectations, using a survey experiment conducted with a representative sample of German adults. Respondents first reported their prior beliefs about both official and personal inflation. They were then presented with information about Germany's 2022 supply bottlenecks and randomly assigned to one of three hypothetical scenarios for 2025. Exposure to either shortage scenario significantly increased the likelihood of revising inflation expectations. Personal exposure to supply shortages in daily life and financial literacy also influenced how respondents revised expectations. A topic analysis of open-ended responses provides further insights into how people interpret and react to perceived product scarcity. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectation, Supply shortages, Survey experiment, Germany |
| JEL: | D12 D83 D84 E31 E71 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202520 |
| By: | Philip McGann |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the case for, and context in which, an urban wealth fund (UWF) or a regional wealth fund (RWF), can realistically and meaningfully be established in UK cities and regions in a manner which helps to encourage investment capital back into economically weaker regions. Much of the current discussion regarding the links between industrial strategies, governance devolution nationally-orchestrated investments in renewables and national productivity growth, largely fails to consider in detail the particular effects on, or specific responses to, the capital markets, at the local, city, regional or national levels and the consequential local financial and fiscal implications of these effects and responses. The UK central-sub-central fiscal system is not well-designed to foster capital flows in economically weaker regions, and therefore finding ways to reform the interactions between the financial system and the fiscal system is essential in order to rejuvenate whole swathes of the UK economy is critical. The wealth fund model offers an important potential step in this direction. The fact that the wealth fund-types of arguments have received support from many of the UKs most prominent economists also underscores that these arguments have credibility and are worth serious consideration. These wealth fund types of arguments have strong links with various high-level fiscal and macroeconomic management debates currently taking place in the UK, but rather than national debt management issues, the arguments put forward here focus specifically on the economic nature, behaviour and role of cities and regions. It is argued here that, if properly constructed as genuine wealth funds, these institutions can provide a key piece of the jigsaw of how cities and regions may be 'turned around' in a manner which builds long-term investor confidence and investment flows back into weaker local economies. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; Regional Economies; uk economy |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesro:66 |
| By: | ABBA |
| Abstract: | The report explores how the political unrest in Belarus, especially after the disputed presidential elections in August 2020, led many businesses to leave the country. It discusses the difficulties these businesses faced, like more government scrutiny, fewer customers, and limited chances to grow. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, new economic sanctions made it even harder for businesses to stay in Belarus. This forced many to consider moving elsewhere. Furthermore, the text mentions that because of the tough business environment and stricter rules, a lot of Belarusian businesses shut down. This prompted some entrepreneurs to leave Belarus and start anew in the European Union. The report aims to give a clear picture of how many Belarusian businesses are now in the EU, what they’re doing, and what problems they’re encountering. |
| Keywords: | Belarus, Belarusian Business Abroad, Business Migration, Entrepreneurial Activity, Financial Challenges, Self-Employment, Investment in the EU, Economic Sanctions, Business Relocation, EU Business Environment, Start-ups, Immigrant Entrepreneurs, Banking Restrictions, Business Financing, Economic Integration |
| JEL: | F22 L26 O15 P20 G21 F36 D25 P31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0508 |
| By: | Ekpeyong, Paul |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on analyzing the implications of adopting generative artificial intelligence (AI) at the macroeconomic level in Nigeria through a task-based method of analysis informed by Acemoglu in 2018. In breaking the production process into individual tasks that are carried out either by labor or capital, the study then examines the impact of automation and task complementarities resulting due to AI, on productivity, gross domestic product (GDP), wages, and inequality due to a 10-year time frame. Based on the empirical estimates recorded by some related literatures regarding the effects of capital stock on the total factor productivity (TFP) of three economies, the paper is likely to improve by 0.51% to 0.66% depending on the growth of the capital stock; this translates to an increment in GDP of about 0.93 to 1.16 per cent. Every 10, 000 when capital investment is higher by an upper scenario, GDP will increase by up to 1.56 percent. Nonetheless, the welfare issues arise due to the occurrence of bad jobs like misinformation and digital manipulation, which may have the potential to negate up to 0.072 percent gain in the GDP. Demographic and education-based impacts differ as the workers with low educational skills have a slight advantage, whereas those with high skills remain unaffected. Income share held by capital also will increase boosting inequality. The paper highlights the importance of focus on inclusive AI approaches, ethical governance and investments in digital infrastructure in Nigeria. Generative AI is promising in its economic development but will depend on the institutional decisions on its usage, their regulatory rules, and deliberate integration with national development plans. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, Labor, Automation, Economic growth, Total factor productivity |
| JEL: | E6 J6 J7 |
| Date: | 2025–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125347 |
| By: | Samara Beach; William L. Gamber; Patrick Moran |
| Abstract: | Economists have become increasingly interested in the effects of household heterogeneity on macroeconomic dynamics. Changes in the distribution of income and wealth, coupled with advances in data and computation, have brought questions about how heterogeneity affects macroeconomic dynamics to the forefront of the discipline. |
| Date: | 2025–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-08-05-2 |
| By: | Rodrigo Dias; Gavan Fitzsimons; Eesha Sharma |
| Abstract: | Prices have reached record-high levels, and inflation is one of the primary concerns for consumers worldwide. Interestingly, changes in prices are in part a self-fulfilling prophecy: if consumers expect prices to rise, prices will rise. Moreover, consumers’ future price expectations influence policymaking, firms’ decisions, and consumer choice. Across 11 studies (N = 289, 437), including a nine-wave longitudinal survey, a multinational study in twelve countries, a multidecade study with 250, 000+ consumers, and multiple experiments, we show that consumers who feel more financially constrained expect future prices to be higher, compared to consumers who feel less financially constrained. We demonstrate that this effect is driven by pain of paying: financially constrained consumers experience greater pain when paying for purchases, causing them to expect higher prices in the future. Accordingly, this effect is stronger in product categories, countries, and historical periods in which paying for purchases is especially painful. Finally, we show that consumers’ future price expectations are consequential, predicting stockpiling and a preference for fixed-price contracts among financially constrained consumers. Overall, the current work underscores the role of future price expectations as a driver of consumer behavior, demonstrates how these expectations are formed, and offers insights for consumers, marketers, and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | inflation; financial constraints; pain of paying; inflation expectations; consumer finances |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:101513 |
| By: | Näslund-Hadley, Emma; Hernández Agramonte, Juan Manuel; Zoido, Pablo |
| Abstract: | In this article, we present the impact evaluation of Irûmi, an educational robot-based intervention aimed at developing second-grade students' computational thinking (CT) skills in Paraguay. Our results indicate that the program had an effect of 0.09 standard deviations on the students' CT skills, focusing on abilities such as abstraction, algorithmic thinking, and evaluation. These findings suggest that with age-appropriate instructional design, very young children could develop CT skills and, that smart devices and electronic toys can contribute to their development at early ages. Our study contributes to the empirical literature because it is applied to a developing country, uses an experimental design, pre-and post-treatment measures, and a large student sample, and explores the programs impact on students and teachers. In addition to the impact on students CT skills, we found that Irûmi had effects on other dimensions for which it may not have been intentionally designed. First, our results suggest that Irûmi raised preferences towards Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) toys and increased gender flexibility toward who can play with them, especially among girls. Second, the program increased children's positive attitudes toward technology. The mechanisms by which the effects of Irûmi occur are several. First, the program increased the probability that the teacher would use educational technology in the classroom, including devices not contemplated by the program. Second, we found that Irûmi developed teachers CT skills, possibly due to the novelty of the curriculum and methodology in the Paraguayan context. |
| JEL: | C93 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14227 |
| By: | Brian P. Hanley |
| Abstract: | In a series of papers, Garrett, et al, presents a thermodynamic economic model first laid out in "Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?". This model contains a key conceptual issue that obscures a robust system. This system can link to the Energy Based Cobb-Douglas equation. The key conceptual problem is the belief that $\lambda$, the symbol for growth in Garrett 2011 would disprove the model if it was not constant. However, $\lambda$ cannot be a constant in an economic model, because $\lambda$, with dimension [$\frac{E}{\$ \; GWP}$], represents the aggregate efficiency of all of the more than 359 million firms (and by extension, households) making products globally. To clarify it, I define this aggregate production function distribution as $\Lambda(t) \equiv \sum {\lambda_i(t) \cdot \frac{P_i}{GWP}}$, and with light algebra assign a version of the Energy Based Cobb-Douglas (EBDC) function to $\lambda$. There are various falsified speculations in the body of work that appear to mostly follow from the original issue. The 50 year stable relation of $W$ to $E$ is close, but the trend is not flat. The form and degree to which the "long arm of history" speculation may be true remains to be fully considered, but is falsified in the form presented. The speculation in Garrett 2022 that $\frac{dE}{dt}\rightarrow0$ can cause real GDP to go to zero by inflation is falsified. By generating a dataset going back to -14, 000 CE, the speculative $W$ curve appears largely confirmed. The $E$ curve is quite far off prior to 1970 back to 1 CE due to overestimation of pre-industrial energy. By correcting and improving on the foundation issue of Garrett's yeoman effort, improving $E$ and some equation presentation formalism, a robust thermodynamic model of the global economy emerges that is straightforward and practical. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.08723 |
| By: | Jianing Zhi; Xinghua Li; Zidong Chen |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate a supply chain network with a supplier and multiple retailers. The supplier can either take orders from retailers directly, or choose to build a warehouse somewhere in the network to centralize the ordering from retailers. Meanwhile, we take three modes of transportation cost into account, including distance-dependent, quantity-dependent, and distance-quantity-dependent costs, to formulate six models. For the three decentralized models, we provide closed-form solutions to compute the optimal order quantity of each retailer. For the centralized models, we develop closed-form solutions for the first two models as the transportation cost only depends on either distance or order quantity; but when it depends on both, the model becomes a non-linear programming problem. We develop a solution algorithm named Q-search to find a high-quality solution that includes the order quantity and the warehouse location. The experiment results show that the centralized model outperforms the decentralized model in large networks in terms of profit and service level. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.09631 |
| By: | Mark Verhagen; Menno Schellekens; Michael Garstka |
| Abstract: | Across the developed world, there are growing calls to streamline and improve ever more complex income tax codes. Executing reform has proven difficult. Even when the desired outcomes of a reform are clear, the tools to design fitting reforms are lacking. To remedy this, we developed \texttt{TaxSolver}: a methodology to help policymakers realize optimal income tax reform. \texttt{TaxSolver} allows policymakers to focus solely on what they aim to achieve with a reform -- like redistributing wealth, incentivizing labor market participation or reducing complexity -- and the guarantees within which reform is acceptable -- like limiting fluctuations in taxpayer incomes, protecting households from falling into poverty or shocks to overall tax revenue. Given these goals and fiscal guarantees, \texttt{TaxSolver} finds the optimal set of tax rules that satisfies all the criteria or shows that the set of demands are not mathematically feasible. We illustrate \texttt{TaxSolver} by reforming various simulated examples of tax codes, including some that reflect the complexity and size of a real-world tax system. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.03708 |
| By: | Jacquemin, Philippe; Gräf, Miriam; Mehler, Maren F. |
| Abstract: | The metaverse offers new possibilities in collaborative working, especially in training, as it can reduce costs, enhance safety, and allow learning without affecting the real world. This study examines the impact of the immersion of the training environment (low to high: computer, metaverse, and real world) on subjective and objective performance (mistakes, time, and long-term memory), perceived cognitive effort, and enjoyment—based on an adaption of the cognitive fit and task-technology fit theories—for training assembly tasks to be performed in the real world using LEGO models. Our lab experiment (n=30) shows no significant differences in performance exist, except that training in the metaverse lasted the longest, the perceived cognitive effort for the metaverse and the real world was the lowest, and enjoyment was particularly high for the metaverse. Thus, in addition to performance, other soft factors are important for the success of a technology, emphasising the human factor in learning. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:156717 |
| By: | Arenal Alberto (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid); Armuna Cristina (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid); Feijoo Claudio (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid); Ramos Sergio (Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia); Xu Zimu (Cranfield University Cranfield School of Management); Moreno Ana Maria (Universidad Politecnica de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Beyond the mainstream discussion on the key role of China in the global AI landscape, the knowledge about the real performance and future perspectives of the AI ecosystem in China is still limited. This paper evaluates the status and prospects of China's AI innovation ecosystem by developing a Triple Helix framework particularized for this case. Based on an in-depth qualitative study and on interviews with experts, the analysis section summarizes the way in which the AI innovation ecosystem in China is being built, which are the key features of the three spheres of the Triple Helix -governments, industry and academic/research institutions-as well as the dynamic context of the ecosystem through the identification of main aspects related to the flows of skills, knowledge and funding and the interactions among them. Using this approach, the discussion section illustrates the specificities of the AI innovation ecosystem in China, its strengths and its gaps, and which are its prospects. Overall, this revisited ecosystem approach permits the authors to address the complexity of emerging environments of innovation to draw meaningful conclusions which are not possible with mere observation. The results show how a favourable context, the broad adoption rate and the competition for talent and capital among regional-specialized clusters are boosting the advance of AI in China, mainly in the business to customer arena. Finally, the paper highlights the challenges ahead in the current implementation of the ecosystem that will largely determine the potential global leadership of China in this domain. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.16526 |
| By: | Benjamin Lahey; Benjamin Hyman; Karen Ni; Laura Pilossoph |
| Abstract: | We document the extent to which workers in AI-exposed occupations can successfully retrain for AI-intensive work. We assemble a new workforce development dataset spanning over 1.6 million job training participation spells from all U.S. Workforce Investment and Opportunity Act programs from 2012-2023 linked with occupational measures of AI exposure. Using earnings records observed before and after training, we compare high AI exposure trainees to a matched sample of similar workers who only received job search assistance. We find that AI-exposed workers have high earnings returns from training that are only 25 percent lower than the returns for low AI exposure workers. However, training participants who target AI-intensive occupations face a penalty for doing so, with 29 percent lower returns than AI-exposed workers pursuing more general training. We estimate that between 25 percent to 40 percent of occupations are “AI retrainable” as measured by its workers receiving higher pay for moving to more AI-intensive occupations—a large magnitude given the relatively low-income sample of displaced workers. Positive earnings returns in all groups are driven by the most recent years when labor markets were tightest, suggesting training programs may have stronger signal value when firms reach deeper into the skill market. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; active labor market policies; job training; labor markets |
| JEL: | J08 M53 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:101471 |
| By: | Arkadiusz Lipiecki; Katarzyna Sznajd-Weron |
| Abstract: | Discontinuous phase transitions in opinion dynamics are closely linked to tipping points, critical mass effects, and hysteresis, phenomena that have been confirmed empirically and recognized as highly important in social systems. The multistate q-voter model, which describes discrete decision-making where an agent selects one option from a finite set, is particularly relevant in this context. Previous studies on complete graphs uncovered a counterintuitive result: In the presence of anticonformity, the quenched formulation (traits fixed in time) yields discontinuous transitions, whereas the annealed formulation (traits reshuffled dynamically) leads to continuous transitions, contrary to the common expectation that quenched heterogeneity smooths transitions. To test whether this effect is merely a mean-field artifact, we extend the analysis to random graphs. Using pair approximation and Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the phenomenon persists beyond the complete graph, specifically on random regular graphs and Barabási–Albert scale-free networks. The novelty of our work is twofold: (i) we demonstrate for the first time that replacing annealed with quenched dynamics can alter network phase transitions from continuous to discontinuous, and (ii) we provide pair-approximation results for the multistate q voter model with competing conformity and anticonformity mechanisms, covering both quenched and annealed cases, which had previously been studied only in binary models. |
| Keywords: | Collective behavior in networks; Collective decision-making; Opinion dynamics; Agent-based modeling; Social hysteresis; Complex systems; Pair approximation |
| JEL: | C63 D72 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2507 |
| By: | Antonio F. Galvao; Gabriel Montes-Rojas |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new framework for multivariate quantile regression based on the multivariate distribution function, termed multivariate quantile regression (MQR). In contrast to existing approaches--such as directional quantiles, vector quantile regression, or copula-based methods--MQR defines quantiles through the conditional probability structure of the joint conditional distribution function. The method constructs multivariate quantile curves using sequential univariate quantile regressions derived from conditioning mechanisms, allowing for an intuitive interpretation and flexible estimation of marginal effects. The paper develops theoretical foundations of MQR, including asymptotic properties of the estimators. Through simulation exercises, the estimator demonstrates robust finite sample performance across different dependence structures. As an empirical application, the MQR framework is applied to the analysis of exchange rate pass-through in Argentina from 2004 to 2024. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.15749 |
| By: | Hellenkamp, Detlef |
| Abstract: | Die regulatorische Agenda 2025+ stellt den europäischen Bankensektor vor eine signifikante Konvergenz komplexer Anforderungen, darunter die Finalisierung von Basel III (CRR III/CRD VI), der Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), die Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR), das neue Paket zur Bekämpfung von Geldwäsche und Terrorismusfinanzierung (AML/CFT) mit der Einrichtung der AMLA sowie die fortschreitende Implementierung von ESG-Regulierungen (CSRD/ESRS, Taxonomie). Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass trotz der unbestreitbaren Notwendigkeit zur Stärkung der Resilienz und Integrität des Sektors die aggregierte regulatorische Komplexität, die erheblichen Implementierungskosten sowie potenzielle normative Inkonsistenzen, substanzielle Herausforderungen für die Wettbewerbs- und Innovationsfähigkeit der Institute konstituieren. Insbesondere Interaktionen im Kontext der digitalen Transformation, die Gewährleistung regulatorischer Proportionalität sowie eine datenschutzkonforme Handhabung umfangreicher Datenmengen erfordern eine präzise austarierte Kalibrierung im Sinne einer differenziert und kohärent ausgestalteten („smarteren“) Regulierung. Die aufsichtlichen Prioritäten der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) und der Europäischen Bankenaufsichtsbehörde (EBA) reflektieren diese Herausforderungen und erfordern tiefgreifende strategische Reorientierungen innerhalb der Geschäftsmodelle und Risikomanagement-Frameworks der Institute. Der Ausblick deutet auf eine anhaltend hohe Regulierungsdynamik hin, die zunehmend von der Notwendigkeit geprägt sein wird, die komplexen Wechselwirkungen zwischen finanzstabilitätsbezogenen Zielsetzungen, technologischer Innovationsfähigkeit und nachhaltigkeitsorientierten Anforderungen systematisch zu steuern. |
| Abstract: | The 2025+ regulatory agenda presents the European banking sector with a significant convergence of complex requirements, including the finalisation of Basel III (CRR III/CRD VI), the Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR), the new Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) package with the establishment of the AMLA, and the ongoing implementation of ESG regulations (CSRD/ESRS, EU Taxonomy). The results of this work show that, despite the undeniable need to strengthen the resilience and integrity of the sector, the aggregated regulatory complexity, the considerable implementation costs and potential normative inconsistencies constitute substantial challenges for the competitiveness and innovative capacity of institutions. In particular, interactions in the context of digital transformation, ensuring regulatory proportionality and handling large volumes of data in compliance with data protection regulations require precise calibration in the sense of differentiated and coherent (‘smarter’) regulation. The supervisory priorities of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) reflect these challenges and require far-reaching. The outlook points to a persistently high regulatory dynamic that will be increasingly characterised by the need to systematically manage the complex interactions between financial stability-related objectives, technological innovation capability and sustainability-oriented requirements. |
| Keywords: | AI Act, AML/CFT package (AMLA), Supervisory Priorities, Basel III (CRR III/CRD VI), Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), Digitalisation, Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), Digital Transformation, ESG Regulation, European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS), Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR), Proportionality in banking regulation, RegTech & SupTech, Smart Regulation |
| JEL: | G28 G21 K23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:324490 |
| By: | Furse, Simon |
| Abstract: | This paper examines two literatures that try to understand the biophysical constraints placed on the economy and economic growth. Firstly, exergy economics uses the second law of thermodynamics to examine the aggregate exergy conversion process to the useful stage. This shows the dependency of the economy on physical laws and highlights the limits to continued productivity growth. I argue that exergy economics provides a vital contribution to economics, but previous attempts to integrate it into an economic framework are undermined by a reliance on the neoclassical production function. Secondly, ecological macroeconomics examines biophysical constraints to the economy using heterodox economic theory and models. My review of this literature shows that productivity growth is often modelled as unconnected to energy and materials and able to increase exponentially into the future despite biophysical constraints. The paper argues that biophysical limits to productivity growth need to be considered alongside the more commonly modelled damage functions and limits to resource availability and quality in ecological macroeconomics. |
| Keywords: | Exergy, Energy, Societal Exergy Analysis, Ecological Macroeconomics, Technical Change, Production Functions, Limits to Growth |
| JEL: | E12 O44 Q43 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:324638 |
| By: | Flores, Lou Norman |
| Abstract: | This tracer study investigates the career pathways of Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) graduates from Basilan State College (BSC) between 2022 and 2024. Guided by the Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), the study employed a quantitative, descriptive, cross-sectional design using an online survey to collect data on employment status, job roles, challenges in job searching, job satisfaction, and perceived relevance of the BSN program. Findings revealed a high overall employment rate (67.3% full-time, 17.6% part-time), with hospitals and clinics being the primary employers. A significant portion of graduates (24.8%) sought employment in Saudi Arabia, highlighting the influence of international job markets. While most graduates worked in nursing-related fields and expressed satisfaction with their jobs, a notable percentage reported neutral job satisfaction. Lack of relevant work experience, intense job competition, and difficulty finding jobs in preferred locations were identified as major challenges. The study concludes that BSC's BSN program effectively prepares graduates for nursing careers, but emphasizes the need for enhanced internship programs, strengthened career services, and further investigation into factors influencing job satisfaction. Recommendations include bolstering practical experience opportunities, providing comprehensive career support, promoting lifelong learning, and regularly conducting tracer studies to adapt to evolving workforce demands. |
| Keywords: | Tracer Study, Nursing Education, Career Pathways, BSN Graduates, Philippines, Employment Outcomes, Basilan State College, Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), Job Satisfaction, Challenges, Job Search, Curriculum Relevance, Higher Education, Labor Market, Graduate Employability, International Employment, Professional Development, Medical-Surgical Nursing, Community Health Nursing |
| JEL: | I25 |
| Date: | 2025–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125500 |
| By: | Arnaud Le Marchand (IDEES - Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université) |
| Abstract: | The chapter relates over 30 years of fieldwork in the port city of Le Havre. As port labor markets evolved, primarily through containerization, from localized to globalized markets, the researcher was led to adopt changes in his way of doing fieldwork. The practice of distancing, or how to distance oneself from the place and people to study, constituted a first reflection on conducting research in industrial relations, in very localized but interconnected systems such as ports. This involved using a mix of tools, such as interviews and archives, and confronting the limits of both cultural and material approaches. To understand how a particular type of industrial district (the port community) was transformed within the global maritime labor market required making comparisons, which prompted the local researcher to go abroad. Finally, as the spread of neoliberal policies during globalization modifies the social landscape and networks, the local port is crossed by flows of mobile workers and migrants. Mobile housing becomes an object of research when poor globalized workers come to settle in the city. Among them, Roma migrants and seasonal workers taught me at last an ancient way of inquiring: dockwalking. The study of industrial relations is endless and must combine many methods. |
| Date: | 2024–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05112834 |
| By: | David Van Dijcke |
| Abstract: | Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regression, the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff. This extends existing $k$-sample tests to a non-parametric regression setting with metric-space valued outcomes. I establish the asymptotic distribution of the test and its consistency against contiguous alternatives. For this, I derive a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and a consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two empirical illustrations demonstrate the method's ability to reveal discontinuities missed by scalar-based tests. I find sharp changes in (i) work-from-home compositions at an income threshold for non-compete enforceability and (ii) national input-output networks following the loss of preferential U.S. trade access. These findings show the value of analyzing regression outcomes in their native metric spaces. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.04560 |