|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | John B. Donaldson; Hyung Seok E. Kim; Rajnish Mehra |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic macroeconomic model in which the secular decline in real interest rates arises endogenously from rising wealth inequality. Challenging the standard “safe asset shortage” hypothesis, the model shows how falling real rates can coexist with a stable safe asset ratio—closely matching U.S. empirical patterns. The mechanism combines limited financial market participation, which concentrates capital ownership among a shrinking class of stockholders, with egalitarian wage bargaining, which generates time-varying labor income shares under incomplete markets. As inequality increases, stockholders face higher financial and operating leverage, increasing their consumption volatility and precautionary demand for bonds. At the same time, greater wage instability raises workers’ demand for safe assets. The resulting surge in precautionary savings from both groups depresses real returns and creates the appearance of a safe asset shortage, despite an unchanged supply. This outcome reflects a pecuniary externality: agents fail to internalize the aggregate constraint on safe assets, especially over the business cycle. Our calibrated model reproduces key macro-financial patterns and offers new insights into the joint dynamics of wealth distribution, labor market arrangements, and asset pricing. |
| JEL: | D31 D52 E13 E21 E24 E32 E43 E44 G1 G12 J41 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34016 |
| By: | Guillaume Denos (IAE Angers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Angers - UA - Université d'Angers, GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Carol-Anne Loher-Delalune (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | Notre projet de recherche vise à explorer comment les enseignants-chercheurs en sciences de gestion peuvent préparer les étudiants à innover pour l'avenir, en adoptant les spécificités de l'économie sociale et solidaire. Nous soulignons l'importance de l'innovation pédagogique dans ce processus, plaçant les étudiants au centre de leur apprentissage à travers des situations de prise de décisions complexes et les préparant aux enjeux sociaux et environnementaux. Pour cela, nous proposons un partage d'expérience sur la méthode pédagogique innovante de la "cubification", en vue d'explorer son adaptation à l'ESS et l'innovation sociale. Nous proposons l'adaptation de cette méthode, déjà employée dans le domaine de l'innovation et de l'entrepreneuriat, pour devenir un outil de créativité pleinement connecté aux enjeux du développement durable. Notre communication vise ainsi à confronter et à tester la diffusion de cette version de la méthode auprès du réseau de chercheurs en gestion spécialisés dans l'ESS. |
| Keywords: | innovation pédagogique, cubification, ESS, enjeux sociaux et sociétaux |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05146772 |
| By: | Mekonnen Bekele (IGC, London School of Economics and Political Science); Mintewab Bezabih (ECRC); Hailu Elias (Addis Ababa University); Peter Fisker (DERG, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Tagel Gebrehiwot (ECRC); Tadesse Kuma (Policy Studies Institute, Ethiopia); Tseday Mekasha (DERG, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Alemu Mekonnen (Addis Ababa University); Finn Tarp (DERG, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Hailemaraim Teklewold (ECRC) |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuderg:2001 |
| By: | Mehdi Berrahou (LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine l'acceptabilité de l'intelligence artificielle (IA) par les médecins généralistes, particulièrement dans le dépistage précoce des maladies neurodégénératives. À travers une enquête qualitative comprenant neuf entretiens semi-directifs avec des médecins, des internes et un concepteur d'IA, l'étude révèle que les généralistes perçoivent l'IA de manière limitée et ambivalente. Les affordances perçues, à la fois positives et négatives, créent des contradictions influençant son acceptabilité, touchant principalement l'identité professionnelle et l'efficacité des pratiques. L'étude recommande d'impliquer les professionnels de santé dans le développement des solutions d'IA et d'améliorer leur formation technique. Cette recherche en sciences de gestion enrichit la compréhension des dynamiques d'acceptabilité de l'IA en médecine générale et propose un cadre théorique original pour analyser l'intégration de l'IA dans la pratique médicale. Mots clésIntelligence artificielle (IA) ; médecins généralistes ; perceptions d'usage ; étude qualitative ; acceptabilité |
| Keywords: | Intelligence artificielle (IA), médecins généralistes, perceptions d’usage, étude qualitative, acceptabilité, Paradoxes |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05126114 |
| By: | Ezzedine Ghlamallah (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Ahmed Danyal Arif |
| Abstract: | This article explores the universal condemnation of interest and delves into the metaphysical aspects of monetary systems. It critically examines the historical and philosophical viewpoints against interest from various cultures and religions, including ancient Greek and Roman societies, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. The paper highlights the ethical, economic, and metaphysical reasons behind the condemnation of interest, associating it with injustices like exploitation and social inequality. Additionally, it discusses the concept of free money advocated by Silvio Gesell and its similarities to the Islamic practice of zakāt, emphasizing the negative economic impacts of hoarding wealth and advocating for a monetary system that discourages such practices. The metaphysical analysis draws on Aristotelian principles, suggesting that just like physical entities, monetary systems should adhere to natural laws of entropy and equilibrium, thus challenging the current financial practices that encourage perpetual growth and destabilize economic systems. The paper concludes by proposing a redefinition of money that aligns with these metaphysical principles, advocating for the abolition of interest to achieve a more equitable and stable economic system. |
| Keywords: | Islamic economics, monetary metaphysics, debt, currency, ribā, zakāt |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05160176 |
| By: | Roy Cerqueti (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]); Raffaele Mattera (Università degli studi della Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli" = University of the Study of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli); Saverio Storani (UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome], GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a class of complex network-based models whose interconnected nodes are commodities. We assume that the considered commodities are linked on the ground of the similarities of risk profiles and correlations of their returns. In this framework, we explore the resilience of the networks — i.e., their ability to absorb exogenous microscopic shocks. To this aim, we assume that high levels of resilience are associated with small variations of the community structure of the network when an exogenous shock occurs — hence, assuming that the stability of the networked commodities is measured through the maintenance of their connection levels. Shocks are conceptualized as impulsive modifications of the links among the considered commodities. The employed methodological instrument is the clustering coefficient, which is a nodal centrality measure describing the way the adjacent of the nodes are mutually connected. The theoretical proposal is empirically tested over a large set of commodities of different nature. |
| Keywords: | Resilience, Commodity market, Network modeling |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05109120 |
| By: | Selahattin Imrohoroglu; Daniel Carroll; Sewon Hur; Braden Strackman |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use an overlapping generations-standard incomplete markets model to quantitatively investigate the long-run implications of Koreas demographic changes and policy reforms. Importantly, our quantitative model endogenizes the retirement decision and matches the elasticity of retirement to wealth. Optimal policy likely combines reforms such as increasing the retirement age, higher taxes, or changes to retirement benefits. We use the model calibrated to Koreas economy and demography as a quantitative laboratory to investigate two policy scenarios: increasing taxes or decreasing benefits. While decreasing benefits leads to great long run activity, it comes at the cost of lower average welfare, particularly for retirees. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:25-017e |
| By: | Dathe, Uwe; Nientiedt, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Der in der Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Jena aufbewahrte Nachlass der Publizistin Edith Eucken-Erdsiek enthält reiches Quellenmaterial zu den weltanschaulichen Debatten der Weimarer Republik, zu Leben und Werk von Walter Eucken und zur Geschichte des Ordoliberalismus zwischen 1950 und 1985. Der wissenschaftliche Wert des Nachlasses wird durch die nähere Beschreibung der einzelnen Nachlassgruppen deutlich. Da zahlreiche Belegexemplare bislang unbekannter Veröffentlichungen zum Nachlass gehören, fügen wir dem Nachlassverzeichnis eine Bibliographie der Schriften Edith Eucken-Erdsieks an. |
| Keywords: | Ordnungsökonomik, Ökonomische Ideengeschichte, Literaturanalyse, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:321874 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Kiribati faces significant development challenges due to its remoteness, limited landmass, and high exposure to climate-related shocks. The government has expanded social benefits and is pursuing an ambitious long-term development agenda focusing on health, education, financial inclusion, infrastructure and diversification. However, recent growth has been largely driven by public sector expansion. Fiscal and current account balances have deteriorated substantially in recent years, amid lower fishing revenues and increased current expenditures, contributing to the higher import bill and potentially weighing on long-term development. |
| Date: | 2025–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/172 |
| By: | Oyarce, Ana María |
| Abstract: | América Latina y el Caribe enfrenta tres trampas del desarrollo: baja capacidad para crecer; alta desigualdad, baja movilidad social y débil cohesión social, y bajas capacidades institucionales y gobernanza poco efectiva. Además, afronta los retos que plantean el cambio climático y el logro de un desarrollo ambientalmente sostenible. Ante estas circunstancias, uno de los principales desafíos de la región consiste en reflexionar y actuar sobre las causas históricas de la pobreza y la marginalidad de los Pueblos Indígenas —sin olvidar su heterogeneidad—, tanto en el plano territorial como en los ámbitos jurídico, socioeconómico y político. En este documento se describen las principales características de la institucionalidad de los Pueblos Indígenas en 17 países de América Latina y se definen los mecanismos institucionales para garantizar el ejercicio de sus derechos sociales, políticos y culturales, especialmente en relación con la inclusión y el bienestar, la erradicación de la pobreza, la disminución de la desigualdad y el respeto a la diversidad e interculturalidad. Asimismo, se abordan los avances y desafíos existentes para que el “bien común” de los Estados y naciones incluya el fortalecimiento de los derechos humanos de los Pueblos Indígenas y potencie los distintos mecanismos habilitadores de la cohesión social. |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:81896 |
| By: | Paqueo, Vicente B.; Maddawin, Ricxie B.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Sister, Johanna Marie Astrid A.; Sarne, Solomon R.; Lavega, Marie Louissie Ynez U.; Orbeta, Aniceto C. Jr. |
| Abstract: | The report assesses two Department of Education (DepEd) student financial assistance schemes under the Government Assistance to Students and Teachers in Private Education (GASTPE) program. These schemes are the Educational Service Contracting (ESC) and the Senior High School Voucher (SHSV) schemes. Through these initiatives, DepEd pays tuition fees for eligible students enrolling in qualified private schools of their choice. The study aims to answer the following questions: Are the programs on track to achieve their objectives? What key challenges and adjustments need to be made for the programs to reach their goals? What can be done to enhance the programs’ ability to cost-effectively, equitably, and sustainably promote the private sector's contribution to national education objectives? The study examines these questions and, in that context, analyzes the following specific concerns: (i) the adequacy of the financial assistance provided to target beneficiaries and the methodology for rationally setting the programs’ subsidy value; (ii) the inclusion of disadvantaged children and the methodology for targeting and prioritizing them; and (iii) the need to adjust program objectives and implementation design. Using a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, the report concludes that the logic of the programs is sound and that there is evidence to support the hypothesis that, in the Philippines, it is cost-effective to use private schools to help the government achieve its national education goals. However, there are significant design, implementation, and governance challenges that need to be thoughtfully addressed as part of the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028's call for strengthening and expanding private sector participation in education. Hence, the report suggests some ideas in this regard. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph |
| Keywords: | ESC;SHS;voucher programs;public-private complementarity;coopetition;private education;public education;Educational Service Contracting;Senior High School Voucher |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-17 |
| By: | Anna Bykhovskaya; Vadim Gorin; Sasha Sodin |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes four classical signal-plus-noise models: the factor model, spiked sample covariance matrices, the sum of a Wigner matrix and a low-rank perturbation, and canonical correlation analysis with low-rank dependencies. The objective is to construct confidence intervals for the signal strength that are uniformly valid across all regimes - strong, weak, and critical signals. We demonstrate that traditional Gaussian approximations fail in the critical regime. Instead, we introduce a universal transitional distribution that enables valid inference across the entire spectrum of signal strengths. The approach is illustrated through applications in macroeconomics and finance. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.18554 |
| By: | Jacqueline Adelowo |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent with climate change, yet cold stress events remain understudied. I use the 2021 Texas freeze to examine household adaptation to extreme weather-induced blackouts, focusing on (1) adaptation uptake, (2) socio-economic disparities in adaptive capacity, and (3) salience spillovers. Using an event study design, I analyze the timevarying effects of a one-off dosage treatment, defined as blackout exposure. I leverage novel data on installation permits for home generators and rooftop-solar-battery systems as adaptation measures. Results show a significant, robust response peaking in the second calendar quarter post-treatment, where a 10 percentage point increase in outages leads to 16.4 (8) additional quarterly permits per 10, 000 households for generators (solar-battery systems). Google search data suggests the 2021 freeze was widely associated with climate change for the first time, possibly explaining the adaptation response absent in earlier events. Notably, in addition to finding weaker responses for lower-income, less educated, and high-minority neighborhoods, I also identify a one-quarter delay in their response, highlighting disparities in both adaptive capacity and promptness. Salience spillovers further reinforce adaptation, which can be explained both by social connectedness and geographic proximity. My findings underscore the need for public outage resiliency investments and regulation to decrease unequal future exposure and policies that address inequities in climate resilience. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_416 |
| By: | Arslan Ahmad; Ian Dobson |
| Abstract: | Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the mean large blackout cost and the corresponding risk. These problems are caused by the heavy tail observed in the distribution of customer costs. To solve these problems, we propose resilience metrics that describe large blackout risk using the mean of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost blackouts, the slope index of the heavy tail, and the frequency of large-cost blackouts. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.12016 |
| By: | Chlond, Bettina; von Graevenitz, Kathrine |
| Abstract: | Das Gebäudeenergiegesetz (GEG), umgangssprachlich auch "Heizungsgesetz" genannt, sorgte in den letzten Jahren für viele Diskussionen in Öffentlichkeit, Medien und Politik. Die meisten Zeitungen berichteten ausgiebig über den Entwurf der GEGNovellierung, wobei er überwiegend negativ bewertet wurde. Während die Zufriedenheit mit dem Spitzenpersonal aller Koalitionspartner insgesamt zurückging, sanken die Beliebtheitswerte des damaligen Wirtschaftsministers Robert Habeck (Grüne) am stärksten. Diese Entwicklungen ließen viele Analyst/innen in Medien und Wissenschaft zu dem Schluss kommen, dass die negative Berichterstattung hauptsächlich den Grünen geschadet hat. In dieser Kurzanalyse testen wir die Hypothese, ob insbesondere die Grünen aufgrund der GEG-Novellierung Wählerstimmen verloren haben. Wir kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass sowohl Grüne als auch SPD in westdeutschen Gemeinden mit höherem Anteil an fossilen Heizungen höhere Stimmenverluste hatten. Die Grünen verloren jedoch etwas weniger stark als die SPD. In ostdeutschen Gemeinden änderten sich die Stimmanteile der Parteien der Mitte nicht signifikant. Die Parteien an den Rändern des politischen Spektrums profitierten (AfD im "Osten", Linke im "Westen"). Insgesamt ist der Zusammenhang zwischen dem Anteil an fossilen Heizungen und Stimmenverlusten eher schwach und kann den Verlust der Grünen bei den Wahlen nicht erklären. |
| Keywords: | Gebäudesanierung, Energieeinsparung, Wahlverhalten, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:321913 |
| By: | Mínguez Solana, Roberto; Díaz Cachinero, Pablo |
| Abstract: | Chance-constrained optimization (CCO) offers exact control of failure probabilities but becomes numerically prohibitive for large scenario sets. The buffered failure probability, also known as the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), is convex and therefore tractable, but it typically leads to overly conservative designs. We introduce a new formulation, the CVaR-Chance-Constraint (CVaR-CC), which preserves the probabilistic guarantee of CCO while leveraging the convex-analytic structure of the superquantile. We develop three scalable algorithms: (i) a secant root-finding scheme that iteratively adjusts the CVaR right-hand side until the chance constraint is met; (ii) a unit-slope quasi-Newton iteration whose local convergence holds under mild assumptions; and (iii) an active-set procedure that retains only tail scenarios, shrinking the master problem and accelerating convergence for very large scenario sets. For each algorithm we establish convergence and provide explicit sufficient conditions. Numerical experiments on illustrative examples and energy-portfolio benchmarks show that CVaR-CC attains the required reliability with objective values close to the CCO solution while solving up to an order of magnitude faster than mixed-integer state-of-the-art methods. The framework reconciles risk fidelity with computational efficiency, enabling chance-constrained design in large, data-driven applications. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic programming; Chance constraints; CVaR; Risk aversion; Secant and quasi-Newton methods; Bundle algorithms |
| Date: | 2025–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:47686 |
| By: | Marcell T. Kurbucz; Nikolaos Tzivanakis; Nilufer Sari Aslam; Adam M. Sykulski |
| Abstract: | Capturing nonlinear relationships without sacrificing interpretability remains a persistent challenge in regression modeling. We introduce SplitWise, a novel framework that enhances stepwise regression. It adaptively transforms numeric predictors into threshold-based binary features using shallow decision trees, but only when such transformations improve model fit, as assessed by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). This approach preserves the transparency of linear models while flexibly capturing nonlinear effects. Implemented as a user-friendly R package, SplitWise is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that it consistently produces more parsimonious and generalizable models than traditional stepwise and penalized regression techniques. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.15423 |
| By: | Makoto KADOWAKI; Sadao NAGAOKA; Takahiro MAEDA |
| Abstract: | The identification of relevant prior art is a key step in assessing an invention's contribution; however, it remains unclear whether and how applicants can contribute to this process through prior art disclosure. This study investigates how applicant disclosures causally affect patent examination performance using the Japanese Patent Office's 2002 policy reform requiring applicant disclosure as a natural experiment. We find that this reform has significantly improved the quality of applicant disclosure (as measured by its coverage of examiner citations of prior art), especially for high-quality inventions. The reform led to faster grant processing, a narrower initial patent scope, and fewer amendments between applications and grants, primarily through higher-quality disclosure. While the reform also led to a greater number of disclosures not used by examiners, which had the effect of slowing the grant process, this effect was dominated by the effect of higher quality. The reform also increased the total amount of prior art used by examiners and reduced both invalidation and rejection appeal trials through higher disclosure quality. Applicant disclosures complemented examiner search efforts, thereby enhancing the overall prior art base used in patent examinations. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25071 |
| By: | Bradley J. Ruffle; William B. Zhang |
| Abstract: | Social dilemmas with a shared resource pool and privately observed entitlements are susceptible to overclaiming. A dishonest claim that exceeds one’s true entitlement imposes a negative externality on others. To explore such social dilemmas, we introduce a novel four-player game where each player rolls a die in private and earns their die report, subject to budget availability. We vary the timing of players’ reporting (simultaneous vs sequential moves) and the available budget (limited vs excess). When resources are limited, mean reports do not differ significantly between simultaneous and sequential treatments. However, simultaneous reporting promotes greater equity under scarcity and reduces dishonesty when resources are plentiful. Frequent displays of virtue signaling take place whereby Player 4 chooses to earn zero by reporting more than the remaining budget. Our results demonstrate that these social dilemmas can be better managed by promoting simultaneous reporting structures, which obscure in formation about individual claims. |
| Keywords: | experimental economics; cheating externalities; budget constraint; virtue signaling |
| JEL: | C90 D91 H80 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2025-05 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following uncertainty prior to the mayoral elections, Madagascar was hit hard by weather-related events in early 2025 and, most notably external shocks: some discontinuation in official development assistance (ODA) (about 1 percent of GDP) and the U.S. tariff hike (47 percent initially). These developments risk setting Madagascar back, considering the country’s reliance on external financing (USAID support was omnipresent) and exposure of its labor-intensive textile industry and vanilla sector to the U.S. market. The Extended Credit Facility (ECF)and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) remain focused on helping enhance overall socio-economic resilience (in a fragile political context), in line with the General State Policy (PGE). |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/221 |
| By: | Ernst Juerg Weber (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | Switzerland has a limited form of constitutional jurisdiction, restricting the Federal Supreme Court's ability to review the constitutionality of federal laws. Instead, direct-democratic mechanisms like popular initiatives and referendums ensure that government policy reflects the will of the people. This article contrasts the Swiss constitutional tradition with that of the United States, highlighting key constitutional challenges, such as judicial review, in the U.S. policy-making process. The success of a constitution depends on an informed electorate willing to engage in open and respectful debate. |
| Keywords: | democracy, rule of law, referendums |
| JEL: | K10 K30 D72 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:25-06 |
| By: | Edmark, Karin (Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact on students’ educational and labour market trajectories of local supply variations in fields of upper secondary education in Sweden. It takes a broad approach and studies the overall, reduced form, effects on several short-, medium- and long-term outcomes. The results highlight the multidimensional impact of educational supply; expanding supply of one track increases its admission rates, but also leads to a redistribution of students across programs. Increased supply is furthermore associated with decreasing average school peer ability, but also with smaller class sizes, and a higher likelihood of getting into one’s top ranked program. There is no strong evidence of any long-term effects on the labour market outcomes of local youth – a finding that may reflect the multifaceted short-run impacts. |
| Keywords: | supply of education; upper secondary school; earnings effects of schooling and field of education |
| JEL: | I21 I26 |
| Date: | 2025–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_013 |
| By: | James Syme (School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | Communities of interest are foundational to democratic representation in territorial constituencies yet are often broadly- or un-defined. The ambiguity of definition and process of community identification leaves practitioners, legal experts, and academics with relatively little clear empirical evidence from which to draw reliable conclusions. This reveals a problem with governance in territorial districting, where a foundational theoretical concept-the community as the centerpiece of representation-collides with practical limitations, including the characterization and identification of a community. To help mitigate and explore this problem, I introduce a graph-based model of territorial communities based on assumptions derived from available statutory definitions and use Census data to explore how communities can be represented, though the method is broadly extendable to a range of empirical characterizations of interest. This novel approach to community identification builds on existing graph-based methods for computational redistricting to facilitate new theoretical research into the interactions between communities and representation while providing a new tool to support practitioners' needs in identifying communities. |
| Keywords: | communities of interest, redistricting, democracy, dual graphs, representation, political science, governance |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:6 |
| By: | Wang, Dieter; Kollenda, Philipp; de Smit, Veerle; Rigaud, Kanta Kumari; Gatiso, Tsegaye Ginbo; Golub, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The Republic of Congo, a country with extensive tropical forests and low deforestation rates, needs to balance export-driven development, especially through timber production, and sustainable forest management. Despite national commitments to conserve and restore forests, such efforts remain underfunded. Empirical analysis shows that historical deforestation is closely tied to timber and agricultural export prices, the real effective exchange rate, dry weather, and demographic trends. Under a business-as-usual scenario, deforestation could rise sharply without effective policy interventions. Sangha and Likouala provinces, which are rich in undisturbed forests and new concessions, are particularly at risk. Past oil-driven revenues have contributed to lower deforestation by shifting economic focus away from land-intensive activities; however, transitioning from oil dependency requires diversification into the forest sector which in turn requires strengthening sustainable logging practices and more robust institutional frameworks. This research provides a model-based benchmark to define key performance indicators for deforestation reductions and to set feasible and ambitious targets for protecting forests while pursuing diversified economic growth. Transparent performance indicators along with feasible, but ambitious targets are a critical for results-based financing instruments. They are critical to unlock public and private capital to support economic growth and conserve the standing forests. This model has relevance to the other Congo Basin and tropical forest countries with extensive forests. |
| Date: | 2025–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11177 |
| By: | M. Trabandt (Audencia Business School); W. Lasarov (Audencia Business School); R. Mai; S. Hoffmann |
| Abstract: | Access-based consumption, such as car sharing or ride-hailing, is often promoted as a more sustainable alternative to ownership-based models, combining both society-related (e.g., sustainability) and self-related (e.g., cost savings) benefits. However, this promise of sustainability can backfire when consumers substitute lower-emission alternatives—such as biking or public transportation—with access-based services, a phenomenon we define as overconsumption. Across two laboratory experiments (n = 351; n = 388) and a field study (n = 167) in different mobility contexts, we demonstrate that communication strategies activating both self-related and society-related benefits—although effective in increasing participation—can unintentionally foster overconsumption. In contrast, activating society-related benefits alone significantly curbs this effect. We identify self-enhancement as the central underlying mechanism driving these effects in a dual role. While self-enhancement increases both participation and overconsumption, its impact is contingent on consumers' environmental identity. Specifically, self-enhancement promotes sustainable participation among individuals with higher environmental identity but encourages overconsumption among those with lower environmental identity. Our findings offer actionable insights for marketers, policymakers, and nonprofits by outlining communication strategies that maximize engagement while minimizing environmental harm in the promotion of access-based consumption. |
| Keywords: | access-based consumption environmental identity overconsumption self-enhancement self-related benefits sharing society-related benefits |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05145211 |
| By: | Simon Freyaldenhoven; Christian Hansen |
| Abstract: | We consider point estimation and inference for the treatment effect path of a policy. Examples include dynamic treatment effects in microeconomics, impulse response functions in macroeconomics, and event study paths in finance. We present two sets of plausible bounds to quantify and visualize the uncertainty associated with this object. Both plausible bounds are often substantially tighter than traditional confidence intervals, and can provide useful insights even when traditional (uniform) confidence bands appear uninformative. Our bounds can also lead to markedly different conclusions when there is significant correlation in the estimates, reflecting the fact that traditional confidence bands can be ineffective at visualizing the impact of such correlation. Our first set of bounds covers the average (or overall) effect rather than the entire treatment path. Our second set of bounds imposes data-driven smoothness restrictions on the treatment path. Post-selection Inference (Berk et al. [2013]) provides formal coverage guarantees for these bounds. The chosen restrictions also imply novel point estimates that perform well across our simulations. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.12014 |
| By: | Reich, Charlotte; Bae, Dongjin; Mußhoff, Oliver; Bruns, Selina J. K. |
| Abstract: | Transformation of the food system is critical in the face of growing challenges such as climate change. Smallholder farmers in the Global South are particularly vulnerable to these challenges, often living in poverty. One potential pathway to increasing their resilience and income is through price premiums and consistent buy-offs from supermarkets. However, supermarkets rarely source from domestic smallholder farmers due to unstable production and a lack of guarantee of complying with food safety standards. An instrument to overcome these shortcomings are certification schemes. However, for a farmer to invest in or for a policy to subsidize certification, it is central to understand if there is a consumer group that will respond to it. Thus, our objective is to investigate whether urban consumers in a low-income country setting are willing to pay a premium for certified food. We specifically focus on Cambodia and the newly established Cambodian Good Agricultural Practice (CamGAP) certification, which promotes food safety. This research seeks to understand whether the willingness to pay (WTP) of consumers can support the entry of small farmers into the supermarket supply chain. In markets where food safety is an emerging concern but clear signals are lacking, a key question is whether certification can override existing heuristics consumers currently use to identify safe food. We used a quantitative questionnaire and a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with middle to high income urban shoppers to assess their WTP for CamGAP certified food. We also conducted an information treatment as part of the DCE by showing a short video to a randomly selected treatment group to examine the impact of consumer knowledge on purchasing decisions. Our results show that consumers' WTP is higher for certified food, with an even stronger WTP after receiving the information treatment. Notably, consumers were also more willing to pay for domestic fresh food after the treatment. Our study provides first evidence for governments and international agencies that certification can support smallholder farmers in accessing supermarkets, even in countries where food safety certifications are just entering the market. |
| Keywords: | Smallholder Farmers, Discrete Choice Experiment, Willingness to Pay, Market Integration |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:daredp:323233 |
| By: | Francesca Marchetta (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Claire Ricard (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, IDinsight) |
| Abstract: | Firstborns in Madagascar are more likely to leave school early. |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05080610 |
| By: | Dieter Vanwalleghem (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Carmela D’avino (IESEG - UCL - Université catholique de Lille) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the significance of functional distance in explaining the lending behavior of foreign branches of global banks. We operationalize functional distance, or the distance between the global bank's headquarters and the host country of the foreign branch, along a geographic, linguistic, and cultural dimension. Analyzing the lending activities of US global banks' foreign branches in 38 countries from 2001 to 2020, we find that geographic and linguistic functional distance has an adverse effect on local lending. We further find that a host country's institutional quality can moderate the effect of functional distance on local lending. |
| Keywords: | Global banks, Foreign branches, Bank lending, Functional distance |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05147313 |
| By: | Hussinger, Katrin; Palladini, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | China's special economic zones (SEZs) have been established to foster business growth and innovation by improving the institutional context of specific sub-regional areas. We examine the effect of SEZs on the contribution of research and development (R&D) to the market value of firms located in these areas. The market value reflects investors' expectations of future returns to R&D, providing crucial information for strategic investment decisions. Larger R&D contributions to the market value create stronger incentives for firms to invest in innovation. Empirical results suggest that the contribution of R&D to the market value increases through the SEZs program, particularly for R&D intensive firms. This suggests that regional policies, while increasing incentives to innovate, may widen the gap between less and more R&D intensive firms, potentially impacting competition and long-term growth. |
| Keywords: | Special economic zones (SEZs), China, Market value, R&D, Institutional development, Innovation incentives |
| JEL: | O32 R58 O25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:319898 |
| By: | Yohan Iddawela; Neil Lee; Zhiwu Wei |
| Abstract: | Mobile internet has become a fundamental component of modern infrastructure. In this paper, we consider the impact of mobile internet connectivity on household wealth in the Philippines. We construct a granular measure of local mobile internet connectivity using comprehensive information on approximately 0.27 million geocoded cell towers, and identify causal impact through a novel instrumental variable based on proximity to submarine cable landing points. Our results suggest that mobile internet connectivity significantly increases household wealth, with effects that persist across education levels and are more pronounced in urban areas compared to rural ones. Combining individual survey datasets with Points-of-Interest data, we investigate mechanisms and demonstrate that improved connectivity stimulates activities in several key economic sectors that create employment opportunities. Additionally, mobile internet connectivity enhances individual educational outcomes and promotes female labor force participation, though predominantly in occasional or seasonal roles. |
| Keywords: | employment, mobile internet, cell tower, wealth inequality, Philippines |
| Date: | 2025–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2114 |
| By: | Tomaso Duso; Joseph E. Harrington Jr.; Carl Kreuzberg; Geza Sapi |
| Abstract: | Competition authorities increasingly rely on economic screening tools to identify markets where firms deviate from competitive norms. Traditional screening methods assume that collusion occurs through secret agreements. However, recent research highlights that firms can use public announcements to coordinate decisions, reducing competition while avoiding detection. We propose a novel approach to screening for collusion in public corporate statements. Using natural language processing, we analyze more than 300, 000 earnings call transcripts issued worldwide between 2004 and 2022. By identifying expressions commonly associated with collusion, our method provides competition authorities with a tool to detect potentially anticompetitive behavior in public communications. Our approach can extend beyond earnings calls to other sources, such as news articles, trade press, and industry reports. Our method informed the European Commission’s 2024 unannounced inspections in the car tire sector, prompted by concerns over price coordination through public communication. |
| Keywords: | Communication, Collusion, NLP, Screening, Text Analysis |
| JEL: | C23 D22 L1 L4 L64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2131 |
| By: | Robert Z. Lawrence (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | This Policy Brief evaluates the evolving reasons for and application of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs and finds them wanting. The tariffs, adjusted most recently on August 1, 2025, were originally supposed to achieve reciprocity between the United States and its trading partners but were based on a defective measure because bilateral imbalances do not necessarily indicate foreign unfair trade practices; the methodology used to estimate the reciprocal tariffs was biased towards overstatement, particularly for countries producing primary commodities, which will have high pass-through into US final prices, and for countries exporting products with high import content. Given these defects, the reciprocal tariffs are better seen as a dressed-up anchoring ploy to strengthen America's hand in negotiations rather than credible estimates of the unfair trade practices that the United States faces. Moreover, even if reduced to 15 percent, the application of these tariffs to America's poorest trading partners would do little to reduce the overall US trade deficit but considerably harm their economic development. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb25-6 |