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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Tom Barkin |
| Abstract: | This has been called the most predicted recession in memory. Forecasts keep getting pushed out. No one banished the business cycle, so those who keep predicting a recession will eventually be right. But most recessions come suddenly. Some fear that the Fed’s commitment to reining in inflation will be that shock to the economy. To be sure, the Fed’s objective is not to cause a recession; it’s to reduce inflation, in line with our mandate. There is still a plausible story that inflation normalizes in short order and the economy dodges additional trauma. Certainly, last month’s inflation read was a good one and I hope it is a sign. As I talk to firms, I hear reasons to believe that — if a recession were to occur this time — it might be less severe. |
| Keywords: | inflation; monetary policy; business cycles |
| Date: | 2023–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:r00034:101239 |
| By: | Rosso, Biagio; Gatto, Matteo |
| Abstract: | What are key macroeconomic consequences of an occasionally binding debt-control policies in economies operating under Fiscal Dominance? From a kindred theoretical perspective, what happens when relaxing the "Sargent" assumption of a perfectly flexible monetary authority to occasionally inflexibility in the form of limits to the quantity of debt or money-growth at which the authority is willing to operate? Finally, how does this matter for optimal fiscal-monetary rules and interactions in such contexts, in particular for the desirability of inflation-targeting? The organising framework we propose, unifying MD and FD with and without occasional inflexibility is (i) a DSGE sticky-price model admitting both MD and FD as alternative solutions to indeterminacy of the equilibrium inflation path, and (ii) extended to account for occasionally binding upper boundaries to quantity of debt through which passive monetary authorities is willing to assist the dominant fiscal side (occasional policy inflexibility). Drawing on the OccBin approach in the sequence space for the analysis of DSGE models featuring non-linearities arising from endogenous regime switching, including occasionally binding constraints, we study transitional dynamics in response to shocks, and optimal monetary-fiscal policy, across unconstrained MD, FD, and FD with occasional policy inflexibility. We provide two ways of integrating this occasionally binding policy-side or supply-side constraint: an overdetermined system with temporary disequilibria or policy-induced shortages, solved for through Least Squares, and one in which the Monetary Authority endogenously deviates from its standard behaviour to enforce the inflexible policy. Subsequently, an "optimal policy" exercise -- via optimal simple rules -- is conducted seeking to identify the monetary-fiscal policy pairs that minimise a standard quadratic loss function. Based on the analysis of impulse responses and the optimal policy rules exercise, we highlight a number of new results, relevant to both theory and policy applications, on FD economies emerging from accounting for occasionally inflexibility in the form of debt ceilings. In order: dynamics display emergent properties, in the form of endogenous higher macroeconomic volatility and a recessionary-deflationary cycle; macroeconomic stabilisation is more difficult to achieve under strong inflation targeting than under perfectly flexible passive policy; more dovish monetary rules outperform hawkish ones (targeting inflation as strong as feasible under the passive monetary policy requirements); gradualism in policy reform could lead to the emergence of policy traps; more systematic fiscal policy intervention could reinstate (relative) optimality of stronger inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | fiscal dominance; optimal monetary-fiscal policy; occasionally binding constraints; debt ceiling; endogenous regime switching; NK models; shortages; shortages as endogenous regime switches; inflation path indeterminacy; |
| JEL: | C63 E31 E32 E52 E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125094 |
| By: | Ansgar Rannenberg (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department) |
| Abstract: | I show that in a canonical HANK model, under a balanced budget fiscal rule, the effect of a nominal interest rate peg is much larger than in a representative agent (RA) model. By contrast, under a standard fiscal rule where tax revenue responds gradually to deviations of the debt-to-GDP ratio from steady-state and depends on economic activity, the effect of forward guidance is much weaker than in the RA model, and becomes linear in the length of the peg. This result is robust to allowing for countercyclical inequality and income risk, and carries over to a quantitative model with capital. |
| Keywords: | Forward guidance, fiscal rules, HANK |
| JEL: | E52 E37 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202507-478 |
| By: | Juin-Jen Chang; Wan-Ting Chang; YiLi Chien; Chun-Hung Kuo |
| Abstract: | We analyze the interaction between the Taiwan central bank's profits and its policies. To earn large and consistent profits, the Taiwan central bank significantly expanded its balance sheet and relied on inexpensive short-term domestic funding to invest in longer-term foreign debt securities. In doing so, the central bank engineered a massive duration and currency mismatch on its balance sheet to capture term and currency risk premiums. We also argue that these large profits could not have been realized without a low rate policy combined with heavy regulations on domestic financial institutions. These regulations function like a tax on the returns of private overseas investments, effectively trapping funds within the domestic financial system. Ultimately, the profits earned by the central bank are, in effect, an implicit tax revenue levied on domestic depositors. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; fiscal policy; central bank independence; financial repression |
| JEL: | G12 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101338 |
| By: | Pelizzon, Loriana; Mattiello, Riccardo; Schlegel, Jonas |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the rise of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and its implications for financial stability and monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area and the United States. While the U.S. financial system has long been market-based, the Euro Area has experienced a striking expansion of NBFIs, which now account for a larger share of GDP than in the U.S. While the sector has grown significantly, much of its capital is intermediated and allocated outside the EU, reflecting missed opportunities for domestic capital market development. We argue that this pattern is a consequence of limited growth opportunities within Europe, weak financial market infrastructure, and the absence of key institutional enablers such as a sizable capital market and securitization frameworks. We further examine how NBFIs pose supervisory challenges due to geographic concentration, influence money market dynamics, and interact with monetary policy transmission. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to unlock the sector's potential - including reforms to deepen European capital markets, a unified supervisory mechanism and consideration of extending some central bank facilities to NBFIs. |
| Keywords: | Non-bank Financial Intermediaries (NBFIs), Monetary Policy Transmission, European Capital Markets |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:321877 |
| By: | Ma, Nana |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between inflation and the UK stock market by focusing on the FTSE 100 Index. Utilizing a two-stage regression approach, it examines both immediate and lagged effects of inflation, incorporating macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate (EXC) and unemployment rate (UN). The empirical analysis is conducted over two sub-periods (2018–2021 and 2021–2023), with diagnostic tests including ADF, VIF, White heteroskedasticity, and Breusch–Godfrey serial correlation. OLS estimates are corrected using Newey-West standard errors. Results indicate limited short-term impact of inflation on FTSE 100, but a near-significant effect with a first-order lag. Exchange rate and unemployment are found to be dominant explanatory factors. The study concludes with implications for monetary policy, and ESG investment strategies. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, FTSE 100, Regression Analysis, Macroeconomic Variables, UK Stock Market |
| JEL: | E31 G10 |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125301 |
| By: | Laura Felber |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on cross-border consumer spending in small open economies. Exploiting a large, unexpected and persistent central bank-induced exchange rate appreciation and drawing on a unique dataset of over 500 million anonymized debit and credit card transactions, I document a substantial and immediate impact on both cross-border shopping by domestic consumers and tourism spending by foreign consumers. The strongest spending adjustments are observed among domestic consumers living near the border and foreign consumers from neighboring countries. Furthermore, foreign consumers from neighboring countries exhibit high exchange rate sensitivity on both the extensive and intensive margins and shift their consumption from higher- to lower-value goods and services. These findings suggest significant substitution effects in consumption on impact and emphasize the important role of cross-border shopping in small open economies. The paper provides insights for policymakers and central bankers, especially in small open economies where the exchange rate channel is an important channel of monetary policy transmission. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, Consumption, Monetary policy, Exchange rate channel, Heterogeneity, Transaction payments data, Tourism, Event study |
| JEL: | D12 E21 E52 E58 F14 F41 R11 Z30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2025-09 |
| By: | Majda Kerrouri (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl); Mounir El Bakkouchi (UIT - Université Ibn Tofaïl) |
| Abstract: | This article, based on a systematic and integrative review of the literature on economic crises, offers an in-depth analysis of the impacts of financial, health, and geopolitical shocks on inflation and multisectoral economic growth. By adopting a comparative, multidimensional, and multidisciplinary approach, it draws on lessons from the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and current geopolitical tensions including armed conflicts, disruptions to global supply chains, and economic sanctions. These events are examined in terms of their capacity to trigger feedback effects on key macroeconomic balances, particularly through market volatility, reduced investment, and fluctuations in international trade. The article places particular emphasis on the effectiveness and limitations of unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing (QE), negative interest rates, and asset purchase programs implemented by central banks to mitigate the economic fallout. While these measures have, in some cases, supported aggregate demand, stabilized financial markets, and delayed recessions, their long-term effects raise persistent concerns: increasing social inequalities, speculative bubbles, unsustainable public and private debt, and excessive reliance on central bank interventions. The article thus highlights the structural weaknesses of these mechanisms and calls for a reform of economic policy frameworks, including ambitious structural reforms, strengthened financial regulation, and enhanced international cooperation to build a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable economy. |
| Abstract: | Cet article, fondé sur une revue systématique et intégrative de la littérature consacrée aux crises économiques, propose une analyse approfondie des répercussions des chocs d'ordre financier, sanitaire et géopolitique sur l'inflation et la croissance économique à l'échelle multisectorielle. En adoptant une approche comparative, multidimensionnelle et pluridisciplinaire, il mobilise les enseignements tirés de la crise financière mondiale de 2008, de la crise sanitaire provoquée par la COVID-19, ainsi que des tensions géopolitiques contemporaines, notamment les conflits armés, les perturbations des chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales et les sanctions économiques. Ces événements sont examinés dans leur capacité à engendrer des effets de rétroaction sur les principaux équilibres macroéconomiques, notamment à travers la volatilité des marchés, la contraction des investissements et les fluctuations du commerce international. L'article met un accent particulier sur l'efficacité et les limites des politiques monétaires non conventionnelles, telles que l'assouplissement quantitatif (QE), les taux d'intérêt négatifs et les programmes d'achat d'actifs mis en œuvre par les banques centrales pour amortir les chocs économiques. Si ces mesures ont permis, dans certains contextes, de soutenir la demande agrégée, de stabiliser les marchés financiers et de retarder les récessions, leurs effets à long terme soulèvent des inquiétudes persistantes : aggravation des inégalités sociales, formation de bulles spéculatives, surendettement public et privé, et dépendance excessive à l'intervention des banques centrales. L'article souligne ainsi les faiblesses structurelles de ces dispositifs et plaide pour une refonte des cadres d'intervention économique, incluant des réformes structurelles ambitieuses, une régulation financière renforcée et une coopération internationale accrue afin de bâtir une économie plus résiliente, équitable et durable. |
| Keywords: | multisectoral growth, monetary policies, Quantitative easing, Economic crises, Crises économiques, inflation, croissance multisectorielle, politiques monétaires, assouplissement quantitatif |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05140262 |
| By: | Anna Drahozalova (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the existing literature on exchange rate modelling by developing a new proxy for foreign exchange market imbalances. By utilizing the monetary presentation of the Balance of Payments we create a measure of net external flows and study its impact on the exchange rate. Focusing on the case of the Czech Republic, we account for the coexistence of fixed and floating exchange rate regimes by relying on the exchange market pressure (EMP) index. A vector autoregression model provides evidence of a causal relationship from net external flows to the EMP index. We find that a positive orthogonal shock to net external flows causes the Exchange rate to appreciate already in the short term with the effect peaking three months after the initial shock. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Exchange, Exchange Rates, Capital Flows |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F37 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_13 |
| By: | Kim, Dohan |
| Abstract: | One defining feature of financial crises, evident in U.S. and international data, is asymmetric bank distress—concentrated losses on a subset of banks. This paper proposes a model in which shocks to borrowers’ productivity dispersion lead to asymmetric bank losses. The framework exhibits a “bank distress amplifier, ” exacerbating economic downturns by causing costly bank failures and raising uncertainty about the solvency of banks, thereby pushing banks to deleverage. Quantitative analysis shows that the bank distress amplifier doubles investment decline and increases the spread by 2.5 times during the Great Recession compared to a standard financial accelerator model. The mechanism helps explain how a seemingly small shock can sometimes trigger a large crisis. |
| Date: | 2025–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11170 |
| By: | Pál, Tibor; Storti, Giuseppe |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the dynamics of the natural rate of interest (r-star) in the US using a score-driven state-space model within the Laubach–Williams structural framework. Compared to standard score-driven specifications, the proposed model enhances flexibility in variance adjustment by assigning time-varying weights to both the conditional likelihood score and the inertia coefficient in the volatility updating equations. The improved state dependence of volatility dynamics effectively accounts for sudden shifts in volatility persistence induced by highly volatile unexpected events. In addition, allowing time variation in the IS and Phillips curve relationships enables the analysis of structural changes in the US economy that are relevant to monetary policy. The results indicate that the advanced models improve the precision of r-star estimates by responding more effectively to changes in macroeconomic conditions. |
| Keywords: | r-star, state-space, Kalman filter, score-driven models |
| JEL: | C13 C51 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125338 |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Anne Hannusch; Karen A. Kopecky; Tim Obermeier |
| Abstract: | Why do US college-educated couples with children marry at higher rates than those without a college degree? We argue that investing in children is more valuable for college-educated couples, who are more likely to send their children to college. Marriage, which entails lower separation risk and more equal asset division if separation does occur, provides insurance to the lower-earning spouse, which facilitates child investment. Using an OLG model of marriage, cohabitation, wealth accumulation, and educational investments where college completion is risky, we find that insurance through marriage is particularly important when investing in children is costly and college costs are high. |
| Keywords: | cohabitation; marriage; child development; time and money investments; human capital accumulation; college costs |
| JEL: | D15 E24 J12 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:101333 |
| By: | Marine Spiteri (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Améliorer la qualité de l'alimentation constitue un levier pour faire face aux enjeux de santé publique liés à la nutrition. Différentes mesures ont été mises en place depuis le début des années 2000 pour agir sur la qualité de la diète. Ces interventions se sont-elles traduites par une progression de la qualité nutritionnelle de l'offre alimentaire et des achats ? Cet article synthétise et analyse les résultats de plusieurs études menées à INRAE et l'Oqali sur l'évolution de la composition nutritionnelle des achats entre 2008 et 2020 pour différentes catégories alimentaires. Cette évolution peut être décomposée en trois effets : i. les changements attribuables directement aux reformulations des recettes par les industriels, ii. les impacts induits par le renouvellement de l'offre, iii. la modification des comportements d'achats des consommateurs. Les résultats montrent que les acteurs agroalimentaires ont engagé des reformulations pour de nombreuses catégories alimentaires, mais leurs effets sont souvent modérés. Des reports de consommation vers des produits de la catégorie contenant plus d'acides gras saturés, de sucres et de sel sont également mis en évidence. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05128717 |
| By: | L A Esposito (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin); A. Melcarne (CNRS, EconomiX, Université Paris Nanterre, 92001 Nanterre); Giovanni Battista Ramello (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin); R. Zanola (Università del Piemonte Orientale) |
| Abstract: | Abstract Despite extensive literature focusing on the concept of supply-induced demand, there remains a notable dearth of contributions in law and economics. This paper seeks to address this gap by investigating the role of tax advisors in stimulating the demand for litigation in a specific case. To this aim, the paper analyses data from Italy concerning advisors who can push the client to litigate an allegation of the tax authority that could otherwise be solved. The information imbalance between advisors and taxpayers can determine an incentive for the former group to promote litigation to gain from these legal causes. We observe that this phenomenon may be mainly observed in regions in which there is low economic activity, and then not only the opportunity cost for accountants to devote themselves to more lucrative activities is lower, but indeed, litigation can represent an additional source of income, thus representing a profit-maximizing strategy. The results suggest that SID does not depend on the specific field but on the agency relationship, coupling a fiduciary duty with with a mandatory decision to be taken in a short time span. |
| Keywords: | Supplier induced demand · Best interest of client · Fiduciary duty · Accounting · Tax advisors · Tax litigation |
| Date: | 2025–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05093600 |
| By: | Anke D. Leroux (Department of Economics, Monash University, Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia.); Vance L. Martin (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia (retired).) |
| Abstract: | Food security lags economic development, raising questions about whether food insecure households can leverage local economic development and livelihood diversif ication opportunities as effectively as their food secure counterparts. In a dynamic model incorporating production and utility risk, household consumption and livelihood portfolios depend on vulnerability, described by proximity to their stochastic minimum consumption threshold. Using granular data on smallholder farmers’ livelihood choices, the threshold effect is significant, with approximately 25% of household wealth allocated to satisfying the consumption threshold. Costly income smoothing strategies are most prevalent among the vulnerable and food insecure. However, results show that popular programs targeting livelihood diversification benefit primarily food secure households. In contrast, food safety net programs that directly reduce vulnerability carry the largest livelihood diversification benefits for food insecure households. These findings highlight the importance of reducing vulnerability to food insecurity, as it hinders smallholder farmers from accessing high-value market opportunities. |
| Keywords: | food security, household portfolio choice, GMM, livelihoods, SDG2 |
| JEL: | O13 G11 Q12 D81 Q18 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-11 |
| By: | Baraldi, Anna Laura; Cantabene, Claudia; de Iudicibus, Alessandro; Fosco, Giovanni; iacopo, Grassi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the fiscal consequences of EU-funded waste management projects on local taxation in Italian municipalities. Using a difference-in-differences approach on panel data from 2007 to 2023, we find that municipalities receiving EU cohesion funds experienced a significant increase in per-capita waste taxes, driven by rising service costs. A decomposition of these costs reveals that while separate waste collection expanded — in line with sustainability goals — the associated logistical and operational expenses increased sharply. Conversely, although the vol- ume of unsorted waste declined, disposal costs rose, likely due to lower quality and more complex treatment requirements. To assess whether cost increases reflected inefficiency or technological progress, we estimate total factor productivity changes via a non-parametric Malmquist index. The results indicate substantial productivity gains in sorted waste management, mostly from technological advancement, but also suggest transitional inefficiencies. Our findings highlight the need for more integrated investment strategies to balance environmental goals with fiscal sustainability. |
| Keywords: | U Cohesion Policy, Waste Management, Local Public Finance, En- vironmental Taxation, Service Costs, Efficiency and Productivity |
| JEL: | H23 H72 Q58 R53 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125150 |
| By: | Pauline Lécole (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Raphaële Préget (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Sophie Thoyer (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | France's Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan introduces a coupled aid program to support small-scale market gardening farms. This study, using data from a discrete choice experiment and national-level simulations, compares the projected outcomes of this new program-which has strict eligibility requirements-with those of an alternative scheme inspired by the CAP's Small Farmers Scheme (SFS), where farms self-select to receive lump-sum payments. Results indicate that the SFS+ (including environmental and employment conditions) may effectively promote agro-ecological transition in the market gardening sector and could serve as a valuable recommendation for revisions to France's strategic plan and those of other Member States.. |
| Keywords: | Common agricultural policy, Small farms, Discrete choice experiments, Coupled support, Lump-sum payment, Market gardening |
| Date: | 2025–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05163348 |
| By: | BAGDE, RAKSHIT MADAN (Late. Mansaramji Padole Arts College, Ganeshpur, Bhandara) |
| Abstract: | वित्तीय समावेशन और डिजिटल अर्थव्यवस्था आधुनिक अर्थव्यवस्थाओं को आकार देने वाली दो परिवर्तनकारी ताकतें हैं। भारत में, ये तत्व आर्थिक विकास को गति देने, गरीबी को कम करने और सामाजिक समानता को बढ़ावा देने में महत्वपूर्ण रहे हैं। वित्तीय समावेशन, जिसे समाज के वंचित और कम आय वाले वर्गों को सस्ती लागत पर वित्तीय सेवाएँ प्रदान करने के रूप में परिभाषित किया गया है, ने नीति निर्माताओंका काफी ध्यान आकर्षित किया है। इस बीच, डिजिटल अर्थव्यवस्था, जिसकी विशेषता आर्थिक प्रक्रियाओं में डिजिटल तकनीकों का व्यापक उपयोग है, स्मार्टफोन, इंटरनेट कनेक्टिविटी और डिजिटल इंडिया जैसी सरकारी पहलों के आगमन के साथ तेजी से विस्तारित हुई है। |
| Date: | 2025–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:u9taj_v1 |
| By: | Derks, Koen (Nyenrode Business University); Mensink, Lotte; de swart, jacques |
| Abstract: | This tutorial-style demonstration provides accounting and auditing educators the opportunity to engage students in advanced statistical modeling using the free and open-source statistical software JASP. The goal of the demonstration is to give students hands-on experience in statistical modeling and explore how it can be applied in audit sampling to leverage all available information, thereby improving audit efficiency. Drawing from a realistic audit scenario and illustrative data, students fit various Bayesian models of increasing complexity and quantify their efficiency gains. JASP’s user-friendly point-and-click interface streamlines this process, allowing students to focus on understanding the models and interpreting the results without needing coding skills. Feedback on this demonstration has been positive, with students reporting increased knowledge of the practical benefits of statistical modeling in audit sampling. |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h3bfr_v1 |
| By: | Claire Estagnasié (UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, LabCMO - Laboratoire de communication médiatisée par ordinateur - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, CIRST - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche sur la science et la technologie - UdeM - Université de Montréal - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, RECOR - Groupe de recherche sur la Communication Organisante) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how corporate nomads experience faire corps, a negotiated organizational embodiment in the context of location-independent work. Based on a multi-sited ethnography combining remote and in situ shadowing, informal conversations, and interviews with mobile employees across sectors, the study explores how individuals make, unmake, and remake the organizational body through affective, material, and relational practices. Anchored in an embodied practice perspective and communication-centered approaches to organizing, the analysis introduces the notion of degrees of embodiment to capture the varying ways in which workers align with, distance themselves from, or reconfigure their relationship to organizational forms. By showing that what matters is not hybridity per se, but the embodied and affective resonance with modes of working, this study challenges dominant narratives that portray flexible work as the "best of both worlds." It contributes to research on new ways of working by foregrounding the invisible, embodied labor involved in sustaining organizational belonging at a distance. |
| Keywords: | corporate nomads, work from anywhere, embodied practices, shadowing, CCO approach |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05143989 |
| By: | Samira Hanna (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Romain Lonceint (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, IMT Atlantique - DI2S - Département Interdisciplinaire de Sciences Sociales - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]); Frédérique Chédotel (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, IAE Angers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Angers - UA - Université d'Angers) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the time management challenges faced by French healthcare teams and their managers. It examines how these teams use their collective competencies to overcome these challenges. The research question, ‘How does the care team use its collective competency to address time management challenges?' addresses a crucial matter: the pressing issue of deteriorating working conditions in healthcare, characterised by increased work intensity, overload, and time pressure. Understanding this relationship leads to increased job satisfaction, decreased absenteeism, and improved efficiency in healthcare. This study explores the theoretical foundations of temporality management and collective competency. It defines these key terms and examines how time management for healthcare professionals can be implemented in a concrete way. The methodology includes a qualitative approach, using observations and interviews with healthcare managers and their teams. It presents two case studies conducted at a university medical centre in western France: one in a neurovascular unit and the other in the operating room. The findings highlight the complexity of managing work schedules and the role of collective competency in addressing these challenges. A thematic analysis has been conducted using Nvvio to extract quotes that identify key attributes of collective competency and discuss how these attributes help the response to temporality management challenges. From a theoretical perspective the research contributes to the understanding of temporality management in healthcare and the role of collective competency in addressing these challenges. It suggests that effective time management in healthcare requires a collective approach that leverages the collective competency of care teams. From a managerial perspective, it shows the challenges faced by healthcare managers in managing their teams' time. |
| Keywords: | Healthcare workforce issues collective competency time management challenges, Healthcare workforce issues, collective competency, time management challenges |
| Date: | 2025–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05144948 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Aragie, Emerta A.; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur |
| Abstract: | The World Bank’s agriculture sector public expenditure review study (World Bank 2021) findings indicates that public expenditure on agriculture sector remains relatively small at less than one percent of GDP, though grew significantly between 2015 and 2020, and the sector relies heavily on donor financing (54 percent). There is a notable underinvestment in R&D, 0.7 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019, which impacts productivity and climate resilience. In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on Research and Development (R&D) to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan agrifood system (AFS), we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023). |
| Keywords: | investment; research; development; agrifood systems; agricultural sector; computable general equilibrium models; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:annrep:175325 |
| By: | Shackleton, J. R. |
| Abstract: | A free competitive market offers wide opportunities for individuals and businesses and is compatible with the framework of classical liberalism. It is also the best environment for boosting productivity and economic growth. * Theere are uncompetitive elements within the UK's private sector which may distort market outcomes, but the growth of employment regulation in the last fifty years is a major contributor to our slow economic growth and stagnant real wages. * Government interventions in the labour market are ostensibly intended to redress market failures and promote social justice, but they may not always serve these purposes. * The Employment Rights Bill going through Parliament is likely to exacerbate the problems of the UK economy and will do little to promote growth. * Serious deregulation of the labour market is not currently on the political agenda but may eventually become a necessity. There are, however, considerable barriers to reform. * Some key areas for practical reform are discussed, such as discrimination and equal pay, education and training, unfair dismissal, and occupational regulation. * A more radical, 'minimalist' approach to regulation is also possible, though this would require a major shift of opinion among both policymakers and the general public. |
| Keywords: | Labor market reform, labor market flexibility, economic growth, United Kingdom |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ieadps:321866 |
| By: | Carolina Vicario (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This article presents an analysis of the level, composition, and distribution of wealth in Montevideo during 1830 and 1860. The study employed probate records from the period in question (n=116) and three population registers of 1836, 1843, and 1858 as its primary sources of data. The combination of these two data sets allowed for a representative analysis of a substantial proportion of the population. The period is distinguished by notable institutional instability, a regional war, and the process of state formation in Latin America. The main findings of this study are: there was a notable decline in wealth levels during the Guerra Grande (the Great War); inequality increased towards the end of the period; and the asset portfolios of Montevideo’s wealthiest individuals diversified in 1858. This study contributes to the existing literature on premodern wealth inequality in Latin America and long-term inequality research. |
| Keywords: | Pre-industrial inequality, Wealth distribution, Latin America, 19th Century |
| JEL: | N36 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-18-24 |
| By: | Ezeofor, Vivian Kaife |
| Abstract: | This article critically evaluates the role of biofuels in supporting global efforts to meet the climate mitigation goals outlined under the parties agreement. Considering that fossil fuels dramatically contributes to greenhouse gas emissions which exacerbates climate change, biofuels are a renewable and sustainable alternative. Although biofuels in itself, are not entirely precluded from environmental concerns, they remain essential in achieving emission reduction and promoting energy security. This article expatiates on the environmental benefits of biofuels and juxtaposes the technological challenges of scaling up biofuel production. It further explores the varying classification, production processes and raw materials utilized in the generation of biofuels and contends that third generation biofuels derived from microalgae is the most eco-friendly option. This Article also discusses the voluntary nature of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and how biofuels in integrated in climate strategies. It arrives at the conclusion that biofuels are significant in meeting emissions target and aligning with the global temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7k8r5_v1 |
| By: | Lorie Logan |
| Abstract: | Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan delivered these remarks before the World Affairs Council of San Antonio on July 15, 2025. |
| Keywords: | economy; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddsp:101314 |
| By: | Siddharth Prasad; Maria-Florina Balcan; Tuomas Sandholm |
| Abstract: | Core-selecting combinatorial auctions are popular auction designs that constrain prices to eliminate the incentive for any group of bidders -- with the seller -- to renegotiate for a better deal. They help overcome the low-revenue issues of classical combinatorial auctions. We introduce a new class of core-selecting combinatorial auctions that leverage bidder information available to the auction designer. We model such information through constraints on the joint type space of the bidders -- these are constraints on bidders' private valuations that are known to hold by the auction designer before bids are elicited. First, we show that type space information can overcome the well-known impossibility of incentive-compatible core-selecting combinatorial auctions. We present a revised and generalized version of that impossibility result that depends on how much information is conveyed by the type spaces. We then devise a new family of core-selecting combinatorial auctions and show that they minimize the sum of bidders' incentives to deviate from truthful bidding. We develop new constraint generation techniques -- and build upon existing quadratic programming techniques -- to compute core prices, and conduct experiments to evaluate the incentive, revenue, fairness, and computational merits of our new auctions. Our new core-selecting auctions directly improve upon existing designs that have been used in many high-stakes auctions around the world. We envision that they will be a useful addition to any auction designer's toolkit. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.13680 |
| By: | Nitsova, Silviya (University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | State capture by extremely wealthy elites is a widespread phenomenon in developing democracies, yet the mechanisms through which it works and the impact it has on political and policy outcomes remain poorly understood. I develop a network-based approach to studying captured institutions. Focusing on the national legislature and using social network and regression analyses of unique quantitative data and original interview-based evidence on the case of Ukraine (2014-2022), I demonstrate that oligarchs seek to defend their wealth by promoting as members of parliament individuals who are linked to them via interpersonal ties. The connections between oligarchs and legislators take the form of a highly fragmented, weakly connected, and decentralized network with distinct clusters, in which oligarchs occupy central positions, and influence the adoption of policies related to oligarchs' economic interests. The study has important implications for the scholarship on money in politics, oligarchy, state capture, political connections, neopatrimonialism, legislative politics, political parties, and political representation. |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k27ez_v1 |
| By: | Ivaldi, Marc; Cherbonnier, Frédéric; Muller-Vibes, Catherine; Van Der Straeten, Karine |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the impact of a carbon tax on welfare, considering modal shifts to less carbon-intensive transport, as well as its effects on environmental and fiscal externalities. We calibrate a modal competition model using logit demand functions for a specific long-distance connection in France and simulate the introduction of a Pigouvian tax. Our key findings are: First, a €190/tCO2 carbon tax is nearly welfare-neutral but significantly detrimental to consumer surplus; Second, rail price regulation has the side effect of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by subsidizing the cleanest transport mode; Third, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles enhances overall welfare without significantly harming consumer surplus. |
| Keywords: | Modal competition; environmental externalities; carbon tax; high-speed rail |
| JEL: | D43 L91 R40 Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130752 |
| By: | Giovani Generale |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the vertical and spatial integration of Sri Lankan rice market, using Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research Institute (HARTI) weekly price data covering the years 2008 to 2023. The analysis focuses on the implications of asymmetric price transmission (APT) on market efficiency and price dynamics within agricultural food supply chains, incorporating wholesale, retail, and farmgate price levels. Adopting a comprehensive methodological framework, the research includes stationarity tests, cointegration analysis, Granger causality assessments, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approaches to explore nonlinear asymmetries in price adjustments. The findings reveal significant spatial and vertical integration across Sri Lankan rice markets and detect positive APT, although its magnitude varies when analysed by subperiods and agricultural season. |
| Keywords: | agricultural prices, co-integration, vertical price transmission, Sri Lanka. |
| JEL: | C32 Q10 Q13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2025_11.rdf |
| By: | Joaquin Vespignani; Russell Smyth; Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | Copper and lithium are essential to the global energy transition, each playing distinct roles in enabling low-carbon technologies. However, their supply chains are highly vulnerable to geopolitical risks, posing a threat to the stability and resilience of future clean energy systems. This study proposes strategic stockpiling as a cost-effective instrument to mitigate supply disruptions due to geopolitical risks in copper and lithium supply chains. First, we develop and apply novel, stage-specific, measures of geopolitical risk for copper and lithium for each of the four key phases of their supply chain: proven reserves, extraction, refining and end-use consumption. Second, we construct forward-looking stockpiling scenarios for both minerals, grounded in projected demand under the International Energy Agency’s Announced Pledges (APS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS) pathways. Our estimates indicate substantial supply shortfalls by 2040 when strategic stockpiling is incorporated. Specifically, we project the shortfall in lithium supply to increase by a factor of 7.8 under APS and 9.8 under NZS, while copper shortages are projected to grow by 4.6 and 6.1 times, respectively. We consider Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven productivity gains and recycling as alternative ways to alleviate shortages in both copper and lithium markets. We show that while enhanced recycling can significantly contribute to closing the supply gap for copper, its impact remains limited in the case of lithium due to technological, geological, and geographical constraints. We conclude that AI-driven productivity gains are essential to close the supply gap for both critical minerals. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, copper, lithium, geopolitical risk, stockpiling |
| JEL: | C14 Q20 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-42 |
| By: | Canova, Luciano; Paladino, Giovanna |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the emotional impact of exogenous political shocks on individual well-being by examining how Italian citizens’ optimism and happiness responded to the unexpected outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Leveraging a unique two-wave panel dataset collected before and after the election, we implement a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal effect of electoral surprise. Respondents who had confidently predicted a Kamala Harris victory and were subsequently surprised by Donald Trump’s re-election exhibited a significant decline in self-reported happiness, controlling for individual characteristics. We interpret this as evidence of the emotional cost of unexpected geopolitical outcomes, even when such events occur abroad. Our findings underscore the conceptual distinction between optimism (a forward-looking cognitive disposition) and happiness (an affective state), showing that optimism may amplify both the emotional gains from positive outcomes and the emotional costs of negative surprises. The analysis contributes to the literature on subjective well-being by highlighting the role of global events in shaping personal affective responses and by emphasizing the need to account for exogenous shocks in models of life satisfaction. Finally, we discuss implications for future research on the causal relationship between optimism and happiness and suggest methodological strategies for disentangling endogeneity between the two constructs. |
| Keywords: | exogenous emotional shocks, optimism, subjective wellbeing |
| JEL: | C21 D91 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125123 |
| By: | Huopu Zhang; Yanguang Liu; Mengnan Du |
| Abstract: | Predicting earnings surprises through the analysis of earnings conference call transcripts has attracted increasing attention from the financial research community. Conference calls serve as critical communication channels between company executives, analysts, and shareholders, offering valuable forward-looking information. However, these transcripts present significant analytical challenges, typically containing over 5, 000 words with substantial redundancy and industry-specific terminology that creates obstacles for language models. In this work, we propose the Sparse Autoencoder for Financial Representation Enhancement (SAE-FiRE) framework to address these limitations by extracting key information while eliminating redundancy. SAE-FiRE employs Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) to efficiently identify patterns and filter out noises, and focusing specifically on capturing nuanced financial signals that have predictive power for earnings surprises. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can significantly outperform comparing baselines. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.14420 |
| By: | Blesse, Sebastian; Buhlmann, Florian; Heil, Philipp; Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| Abstract: | We study firm responses to local policies through a survey experiment, providing randomized information on the competitiveness of business tax rates and highway access in their headquarters' municipality. Firms often misperceive local policy competitiveness, especially for tax rates. Investment decisions respond asymmetrically to tax competitiveness. Positive tax rank information reduces investment intentions in neighboring municipalities. Compared to this, negative tax news increase relocation plans. However, most firms receiving bad news plan to continue investing in their headquarters' municipality, indicating home bias. These effects are strongest for mobile firms and corporations. Negative infrastructure news lower location satisfaction but do not influence investment. |
| Keywords: | tax competition, infrastructure, firm location, survey experiment |
| JEL: | H25 H32 H71 H72 H73 L21 R38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:319894 |