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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Kanelis, Dimitrios; Kranzmann, Lars H.; Siklos, Pierre L. |
| Abstract: | We analyze how financial stability concerns discussed during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy imple- mentation and communication. Utilizing large language models (LLMs) to analyze FOMC minutes from 1993 to 2022, we measure both mandate-related and financial stability-related sentiment within a unified framework, enabling a nuanced examina- tion of potential links between these two objectives. Our results indicate an increase in financial stability concerns following the Great Financial Crisis, particularly dur- ing periods of monetary tightening and the COVID-19 pandemic. Outside the zero lower bound (ZLB), heightened financial stability concerns are associated with a reduc- tion in the federal funds rate, while within the ZLB, they correlate with a tightening of unconventional measures. Methodologically, we introduce a novel labeled dataset that supports a contextualized LLM interpretation of FOMC documents and apply explainable AI techniques to elucidate the model's reasoning. |
| Keywords: | Explainable Artificial Intelligence, Financial Stability, FOMC Deliberations, Monetary Policy Communication, Natural Language Processing |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:319627 |
| By: | Ricardo J. Caballero; Tomás E. Caravello; Alp Simsek |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy transmits through broad financial conditions—interest rates, asset prices, credit spreads and exchange rates—rather than through the policy rate alone. Yet current frameworks remain anchored around r*, the neutral interest rate. We introduce FCI*, the neutral level of financial conditions that closes expected output gaps, within a framework where financial conditions and macroeconomic shocks drive economic activity with inertia. Conceptually, FCI* reflects macroeconomic developments rather than financial market valuations, making it more stable than r*, which responds to both macroeconomic and financial factors. We estimate FCI* using a two-equation model along the lines of Laubach and Williams (2003) with 1990-2024 data. Our empirical estimates reveal three findings. First, estimated FCI* remained stable after the 2008 crisis while r* declined persistently due to asset price declines. Second, since the observed FCI reflects financial market shocks, large FCI gaps emerge especially during recessions. Third, at times of rapid monetary policy changes, FCI gaps more accurately reflect the effective policy stance because FCI is driven by forward-looking markets; for example, FCI gaps correctly identified the 2022 tightening when interest rate measures still suggested accommodation. |
| JEL: | C32 E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33952 |
| By: | Engelbert Stockhammer; Ben Tippet; Karsten Kohler |
| Abstract: | Since the Global Financial Crisis, there is a growing literature on the Comparative Political Economy (CPE) of housing, but it has not systematically incorporated boom-bust cycles in house prices. This matters as cycles in house prices are large relative to their trend and the intensity of house price cycles differs across countries. Bringing Minskyan and behavioural theories of endogenous financial cycles to CPE, this paper argues that the intensity of house price booms and busts is shaped by institutions that encourage speculative behaviour. In an empirical analysis for 23 OECD countries, the paper explores the role of speculation-encouraging institutions, credit permissiveness, welfare state regimes and macroeconomic policy as potential factors. We find that low capital gains taxes and strong landlord-protection policies that may push households onto the property ladder are linked to more intense house price booms and busts. |
| Keywords: | Comparative Political Economy, growth models, financial cycles, housing, house price cycles |
| JEL: | E32 N10 P50 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2516 |
| By: | chiesa, roberto |
| Abstract: | This repository contains the LaTeX source, metadata, and supplementary materials for “Critical Enablers of Effective Organizational Change, ” a mixed‐methods study authored by Roberto Chiesa (assisted by AI). Drawing on seminal models—Lewin’s unfreeze-change-refreeze, Schein’s cultural lens, Beer & Nohria’s Theory E/Theory O, Kotter’s eight steps, and Hiatt’s ADKAR—the work synthesizes five core enablers: Executive Commitment, Guiding Coalition, Short-Term Wins, Vision Communication, and Phased Planning. We enrich the framework with two real-world case studies (one successful, one failed), integrate industry benchmarks (Standish Group, HBR, Prosci, Kotter Inc.), and introduce a novel Change Resilience Index (CRI) to quantify the synergy among enablers. |
| Date: | 2025–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wy8sr_v1 |
| By: | Rodriguez, M. M.; Chyong, C. K.; Fitzgerald, T.; Martínez, M. V. |
| Abstract: | The reliance on hydrogen as an energy carrier, as part of the transition towards a low-carbon economy, will require the development of a dedicated pipeline infrastructure. This deployment will be shaped by regulatory frameworks governing investment and access conditions, ultimately structuring how the commodity is traded. The paper assesses the market design for hydrogen infrastructure, assuming the application of unbundling requirements. For this purpose, it develops a general economic framework for regulating pipeline infrastructure, focusing on asset specificity, market power and access rules. The paper focuses on the scope of application of infrastructure regulation, which can be set to individual pipelines or to entire networks. When treated as entire networks, the infrastructure can provide flexibility to enhance market liquidity. The paper further compares the regulations applied to the US and EU natural gas transport markets. Based on the challenges the EU hydrogen sector faces, including the absence of wholesale concentration and the large infrastructure needs, the paper draws lessons for a regulatory framework establishing the main building blocks of a hydrogen target model. The paper recommends a review of the current EU regulatory framework in the Hydrogen and Decarbonised Gas Package to i) enable the application of regulation to individual pipelines rather than entire networks; ii) enable the use of negotiated third-party access, light-touch regulation and possibly market-based coordination mechanisms for the access to the infrastructure and, iii) allow for a more significant role for long-term capacity contracts to underpin investment. |
| Keywords: | Hydrogen Infrastructure, Pipeline Regulation, Third-Party Access (TPA), Unbundling, Market Design |
| JEL: | L95 L51 Q48 Q42 D47 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2540 |
| By: | Allen IV, James |
| Abstract: | Overlap between school and farming calendars—pervasive in agrarian settings—constrains children’s time for both activities, potentially forcing trade-offs between schooling and child labor. Using shift-share estimation, I study an exogenous shift to overlap between school and crop calendars in Malawi, weighted and aggregated by communities’ pre-policy crop shares, matched to panel data on school-aged children. From pre- to post-policy, a five-day (i.e., one school-week) increase in overlap during peak farming periods decreases children’s school advancement by 0.14 grades—one lost grade for every seven children—while only resulting in 3.9 percent fewer children working on the household-farm. Policy simulations show how adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods can be an effective strategy to increase school participation. |
| Keywords: | education; child labour; households; crop production; Malawi; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:138825 |
| By: | - |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col093:81234 |
| By: | Morien El Haj; Axana Dalle; Elsy Verhofstadt; Luc Van Ootegem; Stijn Baert (-) |
| Abstract: | This letter contributes to the literature on gender disparities in professional life by exploring how men and women perceive the impact of parenthood on career outcomes. It does so through the lens of perceived employer-given opportunities (‘chances’) and perceived own career-related behaviour (‘choices’). We focus on how employees perceive this impact not only on their own careers but also on those of other parents. To this end, we survey a probability sample of 1, 060 employees in Belgium. We find that fathers perceive a less negative impact of parenthood on their own careers than mothers do, in terms of both chances and choices. Additionally, mothers perceive greater career penalties for other mothers than they report for themselves. These insights are valuable in understanding how self-fulfilling prophecies may shape parents’ careers. |
| Keywords: | Motherhood, Fatherhood, Discrimination, Career, Survey |
| JEL: | C83 J13 J17 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1116 |
| By: | Irigoin, Alejandra |
| Abstract: | By specifying the specie on which returns were to be repaid respondentia was a ubiquitous financial instrument to carry international trade in which silver was “essential” for its continuation. Where multiple currencies existed and silver was the preferred money, imported silver species performed as foreign currency. Thus, the import of foreign coins created issues for prices, profits and exchange rates. Eighteenth century Europeans alternatively used respondentia or bills depending on the monetary context, casting a shade of doubt on the inherent efficiency of a cashless means of payment. Until the 1820s, private bills of exchange did not circulate where cash had a premium. Europeans developed means to regulate the price of foreign coins and exchange rates. Elsewhere respondentia allowed to hedge against exchange risk and propitiated arbitrage profits, giving an advantage over bills. The article documents the global scope of the instrument; it explains the exchange nature of the contract and explores the issues that respondentia came to solve. It highlights the role of monies of account Europeans used in pricing foreign currencies in international trade. |
| Keywords: | private maritime trade finance; early modern global commerce; exchange risk; monies of account |
| JEL: | N20 F31 G23 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128607 |
| By: | Magdalena Gadek; Joanna Kott; Marek Kott; Jagoda Mrzygłocka-Chojnacka; Katarzyna Walecka-Jankowska; Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska |
| Abstract: | The aim of the article was to deepen the understanding of the implementation of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) principles within the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector in Poland, taking into account the impact of company size on the level of knowledge about ESG issues, the motives for undertaking related actions, as well as the state of ESG implementation and reporting. The study was conducted using a quantitative method (CAWI) on a sample of 533 enterprises. The results indicate that both the level of ESG knowledge and the scope of implemented actions increase with the size of the company. The main motivators for enterprises are regulatory requirements and market and client pressure, which are particularly evident among medium-sized enterprises. The analysis also identified significant implementation barriers, such as limited resources and the lack of coherent reporting standards. The article highlights the necessity of enhancing educational and financial support for micro and small enterprises, as well as the need for appropriate regulatory adjustments to encourage SMEs to actively participate in the transition towards sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | ESG; CAWI; SME; Sustainable Development; Poland |
| JEL: | Q01 Q58 M14 M21 O35 D22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2504 |
| By: | Sarah Wilson (ANTICIPE - Unité de recherche interdisciplinaire pour la prévention et le traitement des cancers - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CHU Caen - NU - Normandie Université - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - UNICANCER/CRLC - Centre Régional de Lutte contre le Cancer François Baclesse [Caen] - NU - Normandie Université - UNICANCER - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale); Ophelie Merville (CERPOP - Centre d'Epidémiologie et de Recherche en santé des POPulations - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale); Olivier Dejardin (ANTICIPE - Unité de recherche interdisciplinaire pour la prévention et le traitement des cancers - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CHU Caen - NU - Normandie Université - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - UNICANCER/CRLC - Centre Régional de Lutte contre le Cancer François Baclesse [Caen] - NU - Normandie Université - UNICANCER - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale); Josephine Gardy (ANTICIPE - Unité de recherche interdisciplinaire pour la prévention et le traitement des cancers - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CHU Caen - NU - Normandie Université - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - UNICANCER/CRLC - Centre Régional de Lutte contre le Cancer François Baclesse [Caen] - NU - Normandie Université - UNICANCER - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, UNICANCER/CRLC - Centre Régional de Lutte contre le Cancer François Baclesse [Caen] - NU - Normandie Université - UNICANCER - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie); Quentin Rollet (ANTICIPE - Unité de recherche interdisciplinaire pour la prévention et le traitement des cancers - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CHU Caen - NU - Normandie Université - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - UNICANCER/CRLC - Centre Régional de Lutte contre le Cancer François Baclesse [Caen] - NU - Normandie Université - UNICANCER - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale); Valerie Jooste (PADYS - Physiopathologie des Dyslipidémies : PADYS (CTM UMR 1231) - CTM - Center for Translational and Molecular medicine [Dijon - UMR1231] - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UBE - Université Bourgogne Europe); Florence Molinie (SIRIC-ILIAD - Site de Recherche Intégrée sur le Cancer - Imaging and Longitudinal Investigations to Ameliorate Decision-making - UA - Université d'Angers - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Institut de Recherche Public - ARRONAX - (GIP) Groupement d'Intérêt Public [Saint-Herblain] - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Laure Tron (CHUGA - Centre Hospitalier Universitaire [CHU Grenoble], IAB - Institute for Advanced Biosciences / Institut pour l'Avancée des Biosciences (Grenoble) - CHUGA - Centre Hospitalier Universitaire [CHU Grenoble] - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - EFS - Etablissement français du sang - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, DIMAC - IAB - Dynamique cellulaire, Immunité, Métabolisme & Cancer/Cell Dynamics, Immunity, Metabolism & Cancer - IAB - Institute for Advanced Biosciences / Institut pour l'Avancée des Biosciences (Grenoble) - CHUGA - Centre Hospitalier Universitaire [CHU Grenoble] - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - EFS - Etablissement français du sang - Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Guy Launoy (ANTICIPE - Unité de recherche interdisciplinaire pour la prévention et le traitement des cancers - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - CHU Caen - NU - Normandie Université - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - UNICANCER/CRLC - Centre Régional de Lutte contre le Cancer François Baclesse [Caen] - NU - Normandie Université - UNICANCER - TCBN - Tumorothèque de Caen Basse-Normandie - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale) |
| Abstract: | Background: Previous studies have reported lower net survival probabilities for socioeconomically deprived patients, using non-deprivation specific lifetables. Not accounting for the social gradient in background mortality could potentially overestimate the effect of deprivation on net survival. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of taking into account the social gradient of expected mortality in the general population on the study of the social gradient of survival of people with cancer. Methods: French cancer registry data was analyzed, with 190, 902 incident cases of nineteen cancer sites between 2013 and 2015. Deprivation was measured using the European deprivation index (EDI). Net survival was estimated thanks to additive models with French lifetables stratified on deprivation level with the EDI, using the non-parametric Pohar-perme method and flexible excess hazard modelling with multidimensional penalized splines, firstly with non-specific lifetables then with the deprivation specific-lifetables. Results: A significant effect of EDI on excess mortality hazard (EMH) remained when using the deprivation-specific lifetables for colorectal, lung cancer and melanoma in both sexes, and esophagus, bladder, head and neck and liver cancer for men, and breast, cervix and uterine cancer for women. The only site where the effect of EDI on EMH was no longer significant when using deprivation-specific lifetables was prostate cancer. Conclusions: The use of deprivation-specific lifetables confirms the existence of a social gradient in cancer survival, indicating that these inequalities do not result from inequalities in background mortality. Development of such deprivation-specific lifetables for future years is crucial to understand mechanisms of social inequalities and work towards reducing the social burden. |
| Keywords: | Cancer, Net survival, Social deprivation, Mortality tables |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05008584 |
| By: | Céline Poilly (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fabien Tripier (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This short paper provides U.S. state-level evidence regarding the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the labor market. We show that a higher exposure to trade policy uncertainty generates a contraction in total hours worked at the state level. The extensive margins of labor is the primary margin of employment adjustment. State-level employment is more strongly impacted by trade policy uncertainty in goods-producing industries, and more particularly in the durable goods industry. States which are more specialized in goods industries, when they face higher uncertainty, tends to postpone hiring by more, which explains the drop in total employment.> |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty Shocks, Tariffs, Labor Market |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05099742 |
| By: | Anna Nordstrom |
| Abstract: | Remarks at the ISDA Treasury Forum, New York City. |
| Keywords: | Treasury market; Treasury repo market; risk management |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:101155 |
| By: | Céline Poilly (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Fabien Tripier (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics. ✩ The National Bureau of Economic Research has provided financial sponsorship to make this article open access and had no influence or involvement over the review or approval of any content. ✩✩ This article is part of a special issue entitled: ISOM 2024 published in Journal of International Economics. ★ We are grateful to the organizers of the 2024 NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISoM), Jordi Galí and Kenneth West as well as our discussants, Andrea Raffo and Joseph Steinberg, the Editor Linda Tesar and the participants for their insightful comments. The comments and remarks provided |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty shocks, Tariffs, Regional effects, Precautionary behavior |
| Date: | 2025–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05067044 |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Miguel Faria-e-Castro; Gus Gerlach; Kurt See |
| Abstract: | After surging when the COVID-19 pandemic began in the U.S., retirements have returned to their prepandemic trend. New research examines what caused this surge. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; retirements |
| Date: | 2025–07–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:101255 |