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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Pavel Trunin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexandra Bozheckkova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2024, monetary policy of the Bank of Russia was performed amid rapid increase in aggregate demand compared to the supply expansion opportunities, accompanied by a significant growth in consumer prices and inflation expectations. In such circumstances, the CBR pursued a tight monetary policy aimed at achieving price stability. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, inflation, balance of payments, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2025-1404 |
| By: | Francesco Ferrante; Andrea Prestipino; Immo Schott |
| Abstract: | Long-term debt is the main source of firm-financing in the U.S. We show that accounting for debt maturity is crucial for understanding business cycle dynamics. We develop a macroeconomic model with defaultable long-term debt and equity adjustment costs. With long-term debt, firms have an incentive to increase leverage in order to dilute the value of outstanding debt. When equity issuance is costly, this incentive helps firms raise more debt through a debt dilution channel and mitigates the decline in net worth through a balance sheet channel, dampening the decline in investment in response to a negative financial shock. Using firm-level data, we estimate equity issuance costs and incorporate our findings into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Accounting for debt maturity and the cost of equity financing implies that credit supply shocks are the primary drivers of business cycle fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Long-term debt; Financial frictions; Debt overhang; Macroeconomic activity |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E51 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1409 |
| By: | Stanley, Dustyn |
| Abstract: | **Clay–Millennium statement** We show that any smooth, divergence-free velocity field with finite energy evolves into a unique, globally smooth solution of the three-dimensional incompressible Navier–Stokes equations in ordinary space. The proof constructs an approximate flow governed by a suppression parameter α, tracks it with uniform estimates, and then lets α shrink to zero to recover the true solution. A backward-uniqueness argument rules out hidden singularities, completing the Clay criteria for existence, regularity, uniqueness, and energy conservation. --- ### Five key innovations * **Entropy-controlled Lipschitz bound** A “logarithmic entropy” functional decays in time and converts directly into a bound on the maximum spatial gradient of the velocity. This closes the classical blow-up gap identified by Beale, Kato, and Majda. * **Scale-free transfer from periodic box to whole space** By tiling space with equal cubes, adding a Bogovskiĭ correction, and using uniform Calderón–Zygmund constants, estimates proved on the three-torus carry over unchanged to the entire space—without any dependence on box size. * **Uniform suppression-operator approximation** A family of smoothing operators $L_\alpha$ is introduced; careful commutator estimates keep all bounds independent of α. Passing to the limit $α → 0$ recovers the original Navier–Stokes dynamics. * **Gevrey bootstrap without small-data assumptions** The entropy-derived gradient bound feeds into a Grönwall-type estimate that upgrades finite-energy solutions to analytic (Gevrey-class) regularity for every positive time, without requiring the initial data to be small. * **Carleman unique-continuation closure** A custom Carleman weight ensures pseudo-convexity and delivers a backward-uniqueness theorem. This step guarantees that if the flow were ever to vanish on a time slice it would have to be identically zero, precluding “silent” singularities and sealing the global uniqueness claim. |
| Date: | 2025–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8hv92_v1 |
| By: | Hasan Fallahgoul |
| Abstract: | Recent advances in machine learning have shown promising results for financial prediction using large, over-parameterized models. This paper provides theoretical foundations and empirical validation for understanding when and how these methods achieve predictive success. I examine three key aspects of high-dimensional learning in finance. First, I prove that within-sample standardization in Random Fourier Features implementations fundamentally alters the underlying Gaussian kernel approximation, replacing shift-invariant kernels with training-set dependent alternatives. Second, I derive sample complexity bounds showing when reliable learning becomes information-theoretically impossible under weak signal-to-noise ratios typical in finance. Third, VC-dimension analysis reveals that ridgeless regression's effective complexity is bounded by sample size rather than nominal feature dimension. Comprehensive numerical validation confirms these theoretical predictions, revealing systematic breakdown of claimed theoretical properties across realistic parameter ranges. These results show that when sample size is small and features are high-dimensional, observed predictive success is necessarily driven by low-complexity artifacts, not genuine high-dimensional learning. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03780 |
| By: | Fatih Kansoy; Dominykas Stasiulaitis |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of sustainable investing, now exceeding 35 trillion USD globally, has transformed financial markets, yet the implications for monetary policy transmission remain underexplored. While existing literature documents heterogeneous firm responses to monetary policy through traditional channels such as size and leverage, it remains unknown whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics create distinct transmission mechanisms. Using high-frequency identification around 160 Federal Reserve announcements from 2005 to 2025, we uncover an asymmetric pattern: high-ESG firms gain 1.6 basis points of protection from contractionary target surprises, yet suffer 2.6 basis points greater sensitivity to forward guidance shocks. This asymmetry persists within industries and intensifies with investor climate awareness. Remarkably, the Paris Agreement inverted these relationships: before December 2015, high-ESG firms were more vulnerable to contractionary policy within industries; afterward, they gained protection, representing a 186 basis point reversal. We develop a two-period model featuring heterogeneous investors with sustainability preferences that quantitatively matches these patterns. The model reveals how ESG investors' non-pecuniary utility creates differential demand elasticities, simultaneously protecting green firms from immediate rate changes while amplifying forward guidance vulnerability through their longer investment horizons. These findings establish environmental characteristics as a new dimension of monetary policy non-neutrality, with important implications as sustainable finance continues expanding. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.02143 |
| By: | Alexander Abramov (RANEPA); Alexander Radygin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Maria Chernova (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Between 2023 and 2024, global financial markets recovered from the 2022 downturn amid expectations of declining central bank interest rates, slowing inflation, and market actors’ confidence that major economies escaped recession. Completion oftheUS presidential election, removing uncertainties in expectations of the country’s future economic course, had an important stabilizing effect on financial markets in 2024. After the FRS top discount rate rose from 0.25% in March 2021to 5.0% in March 2023, causing a shock in the markets of almost all investment assets in the USA, it fell to 4.5% in December 2024. The ECB refinancing rate, after rising from 0% to 4.5% from June 2022 to October 2023, has fallen to 3.15% in December 2024 and 2.65% in March 2025. In 2024, China adopted a series of measures to ease monetary policy and support financial market, its economy maintained steady growth at 5%. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, stock market, bond market, corporate bond market, derivatives market, private investors |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2025-1406 |
| By: | Mohammed Hajjimi (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah [Fès]) |
| Abstract: | Abstract : This paper presents the results of an empirical study carried out on a sample of 102 Moroccan consumers to measure the impact of the degree of religiosity on the intention to purchase interest-bearing loans using a closed questionnaire and a four-dimensional measurement scale. The results were processed and analysed using SPSS software. They validate only one of the four hypotheses provided in the literature review, i.e. that religious feelings, religious practices and religious knowledge have no impact on the intention to purchase interest-bearing credit, and that only the scope of consumers' beliefs impacts their intention to purchase credit from traditional banks. Towards the end, we present a way of exploring the managerial implications and innovations of the discoveries for the banking fabric in Morocco. Keywords : purchasing behaviour, managerial innovations in banking, consumer religiosity, purchase intention, interest-bearing credit. JEL code : M30, D91, G41, Z12 Type of paper : empirical research |
| Abstract: | Résumé : Ce document présente les résultats d'une étude empirique menée auprès d'un échantillon composé de 102 consommateurs marocains visant à mesurer l'impact du degré de la religiosité sur l'intention d'achat des crédits à intérêt à l'aide d'un questionnaire fermé, tout en adoptant une échelle de mesure avec quatre dimensions. Les résultats ont été traités et analysés sous le logiciel SPSS. Ils valident une seule hypothèse parmi les quatre hypothèses fournies lors de la consultation de la revue de littérature, c'est-à-dire que les sensations religieuses, les pratiques religieuses et les connaissances religieuses n'impactent pas l'intention d'achat de crédit à intérêt, et que seule la portée des croyances des consommateurs impacte leur intention d'achat vis-à-vis les crédits des banques classiques. Vers la fin, nous présentons la manière d'explorer les implications et innovations managériales des découvertes pour le tissu bancaire au Maroc. Mots-clés : comportement d'achat, innovations managériales bancaires, religiosité du consommateur, intention d'achat, crédit à intérêt. JEL code : M30, D91, G41, Z12 Type du papier : recherche empirique. |
| Keywords: | Comportement d'achat, innovations managériales bancaires, religiosité du consommateur, Intention d'achat, crédit à intérêt, managerial innovations in banking, consumer religiosity, Purchase intention, interest-bearing credit |
| Date: | 2025–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05069531 |
| By: | Crawford, Ben; Whyte, David |
| Abstract: | Considering that the transition to a low-carbon economy will not be secured by mutual agreement but requires coordinated industrial organizing, this article builds upon eco-socialist critiques to identify the concrete dimensions of the underlying solidarity between workers and the rest of nature as reflected in workers’ struggles. Specifically, we argue that industrial organization in opposition to labour precarity and work intensification is fundamental to both achieving sustainable work and mitigating environmental harms to workers’ bodies. This argument presents a basis for a common response to the transition to a low-carbon economy across the labour movement and for cross-sectoral climate demands in bargaining. |
| Keywords: | climate change; just transition; trade unions; climate organizing; climate bargaining; collective bargaining |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128229 |
| By: | Germà Bel (GiM-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Joël Bühler (GiM-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | We study how the privatisation of urban water is being challenged in Catalonia, which has a high proportion of private management and a high degree of monopolisation in the water contract market, compared to Spain. We use detailed and up-to-date municipal data to study the dynamics of monopolisation and remunicipalisation. We find that remunicipalisation, rather than potential competition for contracts, is a remedy against monopolisation. Inter-municipal cooperation in Catalonia facilitated the implementation of remunicipalisation in smaller municipalities. In addition, we analyse the democratisation of water management following remunicipalisation and find that progress was modest, both in Catalonia and in Spain. |
| Keywords: | Privatisation; Monopolisation; Remunicipalisation; Cooperation; Democratisation; Commons. JEL classification: B50, D42, H42, L33. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202503 |
| By: | Holt, Ileana; Mendoza Sánchez, Juan Fernando |
| Abstract: | El primer Manual centroamericano de mantenimiento de carreteras se adoptó en 2000 tras los devastadores efectos del huracán Mitch en los estados miembros del Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA). Los países de la subregión acordaron que, para hacer frente a estas amenazas, debían tomar acciones y adoptar normas técnicas aplicables a las carreteras con el propósito de reducir la vulnerabilidad de sus redes viales. En el marco del proyecto “Fortalecimiento de capacidades para la incorporación de la reducción de riesgos de desastres y la adaptación sostenible e incluyente al cambio climático en la inversión pública de los países miembros de COSEFIN/ SICA” (RIDASICC), en 2023 se actualizó el Manual integrando actividades y elementos de reducción del riesgo de desastres y adaptación sostenible e incluyente al cambio climático, con el fin de contribuir a mantener el nivel de servicio de las vialidades y extender su vida útil. El presente Manual fue aprobado por el COMITRAN mediante la Resolución 11 de su reunión de diciembre de 2023. |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:81101 |
| By: | Marc-Antoine Faure; César Ducruet |
| Abstract: | Once developed by geographers, shipping network research has long remained a peripheral subfield of academia. Increased shipping data availability and computational power, combined with renewed graph-theoretical methods, caused an unprecedented growth of shipping network studies since the late 2000s. This article provides an in-depth bibliometric analysis of no less than 329 peer-reviewed papers published between 2007 and 2025. First, it describes the gathered corpus from diverse angles, such as the growth of papers, the main journals, its disciplinary background, and the pattern of co-authorships. Second, we use a natural language processing (NLP) approach, namely the structural topic model, to undertake an in-depth analysis based on the contents of abstracts. We identify four main topics, of which trade and connectivity; hubs and centrality; vulnerability and robustness; and communities and spatial structure, which are discussed according to their innovative character compared with wider research on ports, maritime transport, and network science. Three additional subgroups received peripheral attention despite their core importance: environmental issues (of which, marine bioinvasions), socio-economic development, and the role of shipping alliances. We conclude that network science methods still have important potential in shipping network port and maritime studies, and propose several pathways for further research. |
| Keywords: | bibliometric analysis; complex networks; graph theory; maritime transport; scientometrics; shipping network; social network analysis; structural topic modeling |
| JEL: | R41 F10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-27 |
| By: | Vicente J. Bolos; Rafael Benitez; Vicente Coll-Serrano |
| Abstract: | deaR is a recently developed R package for data envelopment analysis (DEA) that implements a large number of conventional and fuzzy models, along with super-efficiency models, cross-efficiency analysis, Malmquist index, bootstrapping, and metafrontier analysis. It should be noted that deaR is the only package to date that incorporates Kao-Liu, Guo-Tanaka and possibilistic fuzzy models. The versatility of the package allows the user to work with different returns to scale and orientations, as well as to consider special features, namely non-controllable, non-discretionary or undesirable variables. Moreover, it includes novel graphical representations that can help the user to display the results. This paper is a comprehensive description of deaR, reviewing all implemented models and giving examples of use. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03766 |
| By: | Andrea Matranga; Timur Natkhov |
| Abstract: | This article examines the emergence of extractive institutions using the case of serfdom in early modern Russia. We argue that serfdom consolidated under the pressure of landhold ing military elites who gained political influence due to the prolonged struggle with steppe nomads. To contain nomadic raids, the Russian state erected defense lines on the southern frontier, and granted lands in the area to soldiers in charge of its defense. The soldiers could not farm while on defense duty, nor could they compete in the market for peasant labor, as the land had been selected for its defensive rather than agricultural value. The system was therefore only sustainable by restricting labor mobility. In response to the volume of landholders’ collective petitions, the Russian state gradually tied peasants to the land and institutionalized serfdom in the written law. Using newly digitized population data from the 17th century, we show a higher prevalence of serfs and military landholders in districts on the defense line. We also find a higher prevalence of small estates – up to 25 serf households sufficient to support a soldier and his family. Placebo tests show that these patterns do not hold for non-serf peasants, or for merchants and artisans. To ensure causality, we develop a novel algorithm that reconstructs the optimal invasion routes for nomads and pinpoints the optimal location of the defense line using topographic data. Our results highlight the primacy of political economy factors over purely economic ones, such as the land-labor ratio or the grain trade, in the development of serfdom. This sheds new light on the possible mechanisms of institutional divergence between Eastern and Western Europe in the early modern period. |
| Keywords: | serfdom, extractive institutions, factor markets, early modern Russia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wpaper:735 |
| By: | Spyros Galanis |
| Abstract: | No trade theorems examine conditions under which agents cannot agree to disagree on the value of a security which pays according to some state of nature, thus preventing any mutual agreement to trade. A large literature has examined conditions which imply no trade, such as relaxing the common prior and common knowledge assumptions, as well as allowing for agents who are boundedly rational or ambiguity averse. We contribute to this literature by examining conditions on the private information of agents that reveals, or verifies, the true value of the security. We argue that these conditions can offer insights in three different settings: insider trading, the connection of low liquidity in markets with no trade, and trading using public blockchains and oracles. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.04944 |
| By: | Elena Panova (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thibault Laurent (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the structure of communication networks influences learning and social welfare when participants have different prior opinions and face uncertainty about an external state. We analyze a game in which players form links to exchange opinions on the state and reduce their uncertainty. The players hold imperfectly correlated subjective priors on the state. Therefore, their opinions transmit their private signals with frictions, termed interpretation noise. Network clustering facilitates learning by eliminating this interpretation noise. Therefore, the egalitarian efficient network is: a complete component if the interpretation noise is sufficiently high, and a flower otherwise. This network constitutes a Nash equilibrium. These findings establish a link between a key feature of social networks (clustering) and the quality of learning through network communication, offering a potential explanation for the prevalence of clustering in real-world social networks. |
| Keywords: | Network formation, Clustering, Differentiated priors |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05096724 |
| By: | Theodor Valentin Purcărea; Ştefan-Alexandru Ionescu (UniBuc - University of Bucharest); Ioan Matei Purcărea; Irina Purcărea (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business); Alexandra Georgiana Ionescu |
| Abstract: | The rise of the experience economy, driven by disruptive technologies delivering innovative experiences, has transformed the interactions between tech-enabled shoppers and the phygital retail complex system. An important knowledge gap is addressed in our study by evaluating shoppers' perceptions of disruptive technologies and the adaptive challenges that retailers face in securing consistency within a highly complex e-commerce landscape shaped by transformative interactions. A quantitative analysis was carried out using structural equation modeling (SEM) and survey data from an international supermarket chain integrating physical and digital retail spaces. We propose a novel framework to explore how retailers can harness data-driven insights and disruptive technologies to optimize the phygital shopping experience and adapt to the shift from multichannel and omnichannel strategies to optichanneling, as well as respond to societal shifts, including the role of digital natives and the expanding influence of the metaverse. This framework integrates key principles such as emergence, feedback, and criticality. The research reveals key findings about transformative shopper experiences across phygital retail touchpoints that influence shoppers' perceptions and behaviors. Based on these identified key insights, as shoppers increasingly expect seamless interactions, the framework includes practical recommendations for retailers relating to several key areas, including leveraging the metaverse for refined shopper engagement. |
| Keywords: | disruptive technologies, e-commerce, retailers' enhanced capabilities, tech-enabled shopper, innovative experience, phygital retail complex system |
| Date: | 2025–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05070689 |
| By: | Walter Ochieng (CDC - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Atlanta, Ga., USA]); Julie R Gutman; Catherine Dentinger; Aina Harimanana; Judickaelle Irinantenaina (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar - Pasteur Network (Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur)); Hobisoa Léa Razanadranaivo; Oméga Raobela; Aline Mukerabirori; Laurent Kapesa; Andres Garchitorena (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar - Pasteur Network (Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur)); Laura Steinhardt (CDC - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [Atlanta, Ga., USA]) |
| Abstract: | Background Expanding malaria community case management (mCCM) to all ages could shift the point-ofcare to the community leading to improved healthcare access in underserved populations. This study assesses the economic viability of such an expansion in Farafangana district, Madagascar.Methods A cluster-randomized trial was conducted across 30 health centres and the 502 community health workers (CHW) in their catchment areas, with the intervention arm implementing the age-expanded mCCM intervention. CHWs across both arms received training, supplies, and supervision to manage malaria. An economic evaluation assessed cost-effectiveness from health sector and societal perspectives, measuring outcomes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The impact of CHW compensation and economic risks were evaluated using sensitivity analyses. ResultsWithout CHW compensation, annual costs were $794, 000, primarily for antimalarials and diagnostic tests. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per DALY averted ranged from -$21.86 to $212.42. From a societal perspective, the ICER was -$135.64, and -$243.29 including mortality benefits, meaning the intervention was costsaving. The programme could avert 99.6 deaths and 3, 721.7 DALYs annually, yielding $1, 172, 283 in net economic benefits. Sensitivity analyses supported these findings.Conclusions Age-expanded mCCM is highly cost-effective and can enhance malaria treatment access in resourcelimited settings. |
| Keywords: | Malaria Community case management Madagascar Economics, Malaria, Community case management, Madagascar, Economics |
| Date: | 2025–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05072802 |
| By: | Nouira, Ridha (University of Sousse); Ben Salem, Leila (University of Sousse); Saafi, Sami (University of Sousse); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the link between renewable energy consumption and international trade, with a focus on climate policy. We argue that this relationship is nonlinear and shaped by threshold effects. Using a dynamic threshold model (Seo & Shin, 2016), we analyze data from 1990 to 2023 for 29 developed and developing countries. Our results show that climate policy plays a key role in shaping the renewable energy–trade nexus, with effects depending on policy stringency and development level. In developing countries, renewable energy use consistently boosts exports, regardless of policy stringency. In contrast, in developed countries, strict policies reduce import dependence—signaling energy independence—but may also weaken renewable energy’s positive trade effects due to higher compliance costs and regulatory barriers. These findings call for tailored strategies: developed countries should balance ambitious climate goals with trade efficiency by easing regulatory burdens and promoting international policy coordination, while developing countries can use renewable energy to enhance exports, attract investment, and build technological capabilities. |
| Keywords: | climate policy stringency, international trade, renewable energy consumption, dynamic threshold model, sustainable development |
| JEL: | C5 F1 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17955 |
| By: | Heather Jane Ruberl; Remzi Baris Tercioglu; Elderfield, Adam |
| Abstract: | Developing countries face uncertainties driven by global macroeconomic variables over which they have little to no control. Key exogenous factors faced by most developing countries include interest rates in high-income countries, commodity prices, global demand for exports, and remit- tance inflows. While these variables are sensitive to common global shocks, they also exhibit idiosyncratic fluctuations. This paper employs a Bayesian Vector Autoregression model to capture interdependencies of global variables and simulates global risks using the empirical joint distribution of global shock as captured by joint Bayesian Vector Autoregression errors. The simulated shocks are then integrated into the World Bank’s macro-structural model to assess how a range of potential global disturbances could impact economic outcomes across countries. The methodology is applied to 115 countries, using the World Bank’s fall 2024 edition of the Macro-Poverty Outlook forecasts as a baseline. Although the individual country results are heterogeneous, the aggregate distribution of gross domestic product outcomes across the 115 countries suggests that global factors influence gross domestic product levels in individual developing countries by less than plus or minus 2 percent in most years, but by between 2 and 4 percent in about 3 in 10 years. |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11132 |
| By: | Nadezhda Volovik (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The last four years have been a major test for the global economy. Pandemic, geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather disrupted supply chains and triggered energy and food crises. However, in 2024, the global economy demonstrated stability, inflation was declining, and international trade was gradually recovering. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2025-1408 |