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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Thomas Dengler; Britta Gehrke; Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg |
| Abstract: | During the Covid-19 crisis, most OECD countries used short-time work (subsidized reductions in working hours) to preserve employment. This paper documents that short-time work affects the behavior of firms (supply) and households (demand). First, using household survey data from Germany, we show that the consumption risk of short-time work is lower than that of unemployment. Second, we construct a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous workers and firms, incomplete asset markets, and labor market frictions. Short-time work weakens workers' precautionary savings motive and lowers labor costs. This reduces the level and volatility of both the separation and unemployment rate at the cost of tying workers to less productive firms. Quantitatively, the positive employment effects dominate the productivity losses. |
| Keywords: | Short-time work, fiscal policy, incomplete asset markets, unemployment risk, matching frictions |
| JEL: | E21 E24 E32 E52 E62 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0066 |
| By: | James H. Stock; Mark W. Watson |
| Abstract: | The COVID business cycle was unique. The recession was by far the deepest and shortest in the U.S. postwar record and the recovery was remarkably rapid. The cycle saw an unprecedented reallocation of employment and consumption away from in-person services towards goods that can be consumed at home and outdoors. This paper provides a simple empirical model that attributes these and other anomalies in real economic activity to a single unobserved shock. That shock is closely connected to COVID deaths, and diminishes in importance over the expansion, consistent with self-protective measures like masking, COVID fatigue, and eventually the availability of the vaccine. The COVID shock and anomalous COVID dynamics largely disappeared by late 2022. It appears that macrodynamics have returned to normal and that the structural shifts wrought by the pandemic have had limited effects on the underlying economic trends of key indicators, despite notable changes like the prevalence of remote work. The greatest macroeconomic legacy of the COVID business cycle has been on the national debt. |
| JEL: | E32 I00 I12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33857 |
| By: | Rubio, Margarita (University of Nottingham); Yao, Fang (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines loan-to-value (LTV) policy as a macroprudential tool and its interactions with monetary policy in an inflationary environment. The combination of inflation shocks and collateral constraints introduces additional trade-offs for policymakers, emphasizing the need for coordination between macroprudential and monetary policies. Using a DSGE model with collateral constraints, we evaluate the implications of an optimized LTV rule for a welfare-based loss function that incorporates economic and financial stability. Our core finding indicates that, under inflation shocks, policy coordination reduces welfare-based losses compared to a non-coordination regime. In particular, the LTV rule is active (responding to cyclical factors, e.g. house prices) when monetary policy responds weakly to inflation shocks, but the LTV rule becomes passive (only responding to structural factors) when monetary policy chooses to be hawkish towards inflation. |
| Keywords: | LTV policy, Monetary Policy, macroprudential policy coordination, collateral constraints, financial friction, cost-push shocks. |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/25 |
| By: | Bartscher, Alina K.; Kuhn, Moritz; Schularick, Moritz; Steins, Ulrike I. |
| Abstract: | Using new household-level data, we study the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its distribution since 1950. Most of the debt were mortgages, which initially grew because more households borrowed. Yet after 1980, debt mostly grew because households borrowed more. We uncover home equity extraction, concentrated in the white middle class, as the largest cause, strongly affecting intergenerational inequality and life-cycle debt profiles. Remarkably, the additional debt did not lower households' net worth because of rising house prices. We conclude that asset-price-based borrowing became an integral part of households' consumption-saving decisions, yet at the cost of higher financial fragility. |
| Keywords: | Household debt, Home equity extraction, Inequality, Household portfolios, Financial fragility |
| JEL: | G51 E21 E44 D14 D31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318398 |
| By: | Bahaa Aly, Tarek |
| Abstract: | This study presents a novel hybrid framework that integrated Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Daubechies wavelet transforms to estimate Deep Impulse Response Functions (DIRF) for monthly macroeconomic time series, across five economies: Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, United States, and the United Kingdom. Eight key variables, yield curve latent factors (LEVEL, SLOPE, CURVATURE), foreign exchange rates, equity indices, central bank policy rates, GDP growth rates, and inflation rates, were modeled using the proposed LSTM-Wavelet approach, and were compared against an ANN-Wavelet hybrid, and a traditional Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The LSTM-Wavelet model achieved a superior overall median R2, outperforming the ANN-Wavelet and VECM. The approach excelled in capturing nonlinear dynamics and temporal dependencies for variables such as equity indices, policy rates, GDP, and inflation. Db4 was superior for capturing short and medium-term patterns in macroeconomic variables like GDP, EQUITY, and FX, cause its shorter filter and moderate smoothing excelled at isolating cyclical patterns in noisy, volatile data. Cumulative DIRFs revealed consistent cross variable dynamics e.g., yield curve shocks propagated to equity, FX, policy rates, GDP, and inflation, in line with economic theory. These findings underscored the hybrid model’s ability to capture non-linearity, multiscale interactions in macroeconomic data, offering valuable insights for forecasting and policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | Deep Impulse Response Function, Long Short-Term Memory, Daubechies Wavelet transform, Macroeconomics, nonlinearity, Forecasting |
| JEL: | C5 C53 C58 |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124905 |
| By: | Leonardo Tariffi (Universitat de Barcelona, CIVREF) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows what the main inflation macroeconomics drivers in Spain are. Even if there has been a less than two-digit inflation in the last three decades, it can be emphasized the fact that the inflation rate has raised and declined rapidly in recent years because of its fundamental determinants. Main reasons behind the behaviour of the consumption price index are related to higher prices in the energy sector and a higher government expenditure, particularly after the post-pandemic economy re-opening. Proxy variables such as oil prices free on board in the European Brent market, the 12 months Euribor interest rate of the Economic and Monetary Union, the nominal gross domestic product, the government expenditure of the public administration, and fiscal deficits in terms of the gross domestic product are those variables in which the consumer price index depends on. Changes on interest rates have managed to stabilized inflation rates once again, thereby diminishing the percentage change in the consumer price index. |
| Keywords: | Inflation rate, Consumer Price Index, Central Banks, Hydrocarbon Fuels |
| JEL: | E31 E58 L71 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:480web |
| By: | Hack, Lukas (University of Mannheim); Rostam-Afschar, Davud (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | How do firms’ plans and expectations respond to macroeconomic shocks? We run a daily survey of German firms over the past three years. We randomize daily invitations, delivering a stable composition of firms. This allows constructing daily time series and estimating dynamic aggregate causal effects. These estimates capture firms’ responsiveness conditional on the recent economic environment, making them informative for policymakers. We examine oil supply, monetary policy, and forward guidance shocks, finding that firms’ plans, especially price-setting plans, respond within days to oil supply and monetary policy shocks but not to forward guidance. Finally, we investigate firm heterogeneity and expectations. |
| Keywords: | oil supply, monetary policy, firms, daily data, inflation surge |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E52 E58 C83 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17882 |
| By: | Gideon Bornstein |
| Abstract: | Over the past four decades, the U.S. economy has seen a decline in the share of young firms alongside a rise in the profit share of GDP. This paper explores how population aging contributes to these twin trends through a demand-side channel. The core hypothesis is that younger households exhibit lower consumer inertia—a tendency to stick with previously chosen products—than older households. As demand shifts toward more inertial consumers, entry becomes harder, incumbents raise markups, and market share tilts toward larger firms. To quantify this mechanism, I develop and calibrate a firm dynamics model with overlapping generations of consumers who differ in their degree of inertia. Using detailed micro data, I show that younger households are significantly less inertial. The model implies that population aging accounts for 20%–30% of the observed decline in young firms and rise in profits. Reduced-form evidence across U.S. states and product categories supports the model’s predictions. |
| JEL: | D40 E20 J10 L10 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33820 |
| By: | Richard H. Clarida |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the 2021-2022 global inflation surge and the belated but aggressive monetary policy response to it by advanced economy central banks. Drawing on body of recent empirical research, it identifies three primary drivers of the global inflation surge: supply shocks from pandemic disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies that responded to the economic dislocation caused by pandemic, and a demand shift toward goods relative to services, that exacerbated supply chain pressures. Advanced economy central banks were initially slow to react but ultimately raised rates aggressively and succeeded, with help from a reversal of the initial supply shocks which contributed to the initial inflation surge, in returning inflation to “2 point something” were confident enough in the prospects for further disinflation to began cutting interest rates by the summer of 2024. The paper explores benefits and costs of proposals to make forward guidance on the policy rate and the balance sheet more robust and considers the benefits and costs of incorporating scenario analysis into the communication toolkit. |
| JEL: | E31 E4 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33885 |
| By: | Laurence M. Ball; Mr. Daniel Leigh; Ms. Prachi Mishra |
| Abstract: | Why did US inflation rise over 2021-22 and why has it retreated since then? Ball, Leigh, and Mishra (2022), writing near the inflation peak, explained the rise with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations; the tightness of the labor market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment (V/U) ratio; and large changes in relative prices in particular industries such as energy and autos. This paper finds that the same framework explains the retreat in inflation since our earlier work. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Inflation shocks; Core inflation; Phillips curve |
| Date: | 2025–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/094 |
| By: | Makoto WATANABE; Yu Awaya; Jihwan Do |
| Abstract: | We construct a model of bubbles where an asset can be used as collateral primarily due to higher-order uncertainty: while both a lender and a borrower know that the intrinsic value of the asset is low, they may still believe that a greater fool exists who will purchase it at a much higher price. We show that such bubbles can lead to inefficient overinvestment under certain conditions. Using this framework, we also examine the impacts of macroprudential policies, as well as other regulatory measures such as interest rate hikes and the resolution of uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:25-013e |
| By: | Schneider, Jonas; Süß, Juliana |
| Abstract: | According to the US government, the Russian government is developing a programme to arm some of its satellites with nuclear warheads. Should the Kremlin acquire this capability, it could destroy key parts of the civilian satellite infrastructure by detonating a single nuclear weapon in low Earth orbit. Important US military satellites are also located in space. The use of Russian nuclear weapons there could severely weaken the US military and potentially trigger a military escalation on Earth. The deployment of a nuclear warhead in space would constitute a violation of the Outer Space Treaty. The development of this capability appears to align with Russia's strategic approach of undermining the established international order and engaging in high-risk actions to extract concessions from the West, particularly in the context of Ukraine. The Kremlin is also attempting to incorporate the increasingly militarised domain of space into this strategy by using non-nuclear anti-satellite weapons. Europe must be prepared to address this ongoing challenge. |
| Keywords: | Russia, United States, China, satellites, Cosmos 2553, nuclear warheads, low Earth orbit, military escalation, Ukraine, Outer Space Treaty, jamming and spoofing, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:318319 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz Republic has shown remarkable resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. Inflation has declined to mid-single digits, but underlying demand pressures require continued vigilance. Favorable debt dynamics have created fiscal space to invest in infrastructure, energy, and human capital. Looking ahead, growth is expected to moderate and converge to its potential of around 5¼ percent over the medium term as re-export trade normalizes. However, the outlook remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments. Priorities going forward include rebuilding policy buffers and advancing structural reforms to strengthen resilience and support sustained and inclusive growth. |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/118 |
| By: | Jianhao Lin; Lexuan Sun; Yixin Yan |
| Abstract: | We introduce a novel framework for simulating macroeconomic expectation formation using Large Language Model-Empowered Agents (LLM Agents). By constructing thousands of LLM Agents equipped with modules for personal characteristics, prior expectations, and knowledge, we replicate a survey experiment involving households and experts on inflation and unemployment. Our results show that although the expectations and thoughts generated by LLM Agents are more homogeneous than those of human participants, they still effectively capture key heterogeneity across agents and the underlying drivers of expectation formation. Furthermore, a module-ablation exercise highlights the critical role of prior expectations in simulating such heterogeneity. This approach complements traditional survey methods and offers new insights into AI behavioral science in macroeconomic research. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.17648 |
| By: | Alena Bicakova; Guido Matias Cortes; Kelly Foley; Jacopo Mazza; Peter McHenry |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Current Population Survey’s Education Supplement for 1977-2023, we explore two important, yet understudied facets of the pattern of countercyclical post-secondary education (PSE) enrollment in the U.S. First, we show that economic downturns are associated with higher enrollment probabilities at both 2- and 4-year colleges among young men, but only at 2-year institutions among young women. Second, we show that the overall increase in enrollment propensities during downturns is primarily driven by persistence (i.e., changes in enrollment among individuals with prior PSE participation), rather than matriculation (i.e., new enrollments). However, higher unemployment rates increase matriculation probabilities at 2-year colleges among 18-year-old men and women, and at 4-year colleges among individuals in their early 20s. Our findings improve our understanding of the dimensions along which aggregate economic fluctuations induce changes in human capital acquisition. |
| Keywords: | College Enrollment, Business Cycles, 2- and 4-Year Institutions, Persistence |
| JEL: | I23 J24 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp795 |
| By: | Anjali Adukia; Emileigh Harrison |
| Abstract: | Curricula impart knowledge, instill values, and shape collective memory. Despite growing public funding for religious schools through U.S. school choice programs, little is known about what they teach. We examine textbooks from public schools, religious private schools, and home schools, applying computational methods—including AI tools—to measure the presence and portrayal of people, topics, and values over time. Despite narratives of political polarization, our findings reveal few meaningful differences between public school textbooks from Texas and California. However, religious school textbooks have less female representation, feature lighter-skinned individuals, and portray topics like evolution and religion differently. Over one-third of pages in each collection convey character values, with a higher proportion in religious school textbooks. Important similarities also emerge: all textbook collections rarely include LGBTQIA+ discussion, portray females in more positive but less active or powerful contexts than males, and depict the U.S. founding era and slavery in similar contexts. |
| JEL: | I0 I20 I21 I28 I29 J0 J10 J15 J16 J18 J19 Z10 Z11 Z12 Z13 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33791 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Economic growth continues to be strong in the WAEMU, while inflation has fallen back to its target range. An appropriately tight monetary policy, along with progress in reducing external imbalances, is supporting a strong recovery in reserves back above the lower end of the adequacy range. However, there is significant divergence among WAEMU member states in macroeconomic performance, policies, and resilience. In addition, public debt ratios have been significantly increasing in recent years and are particularly high in some member states. The region remains vulnerable to potential shocks, notably delays in oil production, falls in commodity prices (notably cocoa and gold), and constraints on external financing. |
| Date: | 2025–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/110 |
| By: | Omar Besbes; Yash Kanoria; Akshit Kumar |
| Abstract: | Individuals often navigate several options with incomplete knowledge of their own preferences. Information provisioning tools such as public rankings and personalized recommendations have become central to helping individuals make choices, yet their value proposition under different marketplace environments remains unexplored. This paper studies a stylized model to explore the impact of these tools in two marketplace settings: uncapacitated supply, where items can be selected by any number of agents, and capacitated supply, where each item is constrained to be matched to a single agent. We model the agents utility as a weighted combination of a common term which depends only on the item, reflecting the item's population level quality, and an idiosyncratic term, which depends on the agent item pair capturing individual specific tastes. Public rankings reveal the common term, while personalized recommendations reveal both terms. In the supply unconstrained settings, both public rankings and personalized recommendations improve welfare, with their relative value determined by the degree of preference heterogeneity. Public rankings are effective when preferences are relatively homogeneous, while personalized recommendations become critical as heterogeneity increases. In contrast, in supply constrained settings, revealing just the common term, as done by public rankings, provides limited benefit since the total common value available is limited by capacity constraints, whereas personalized recommendations, by revealing both common and idiosyncratic terms, significantly enhance welfare by enabling agents to match with items they idiosyncratically value highly. These results illustrate the interplay between supply constraints and preference heterogeneity in determining the effectiveness of information provisioning tools, offering insights for their design and deployment in diverse settings. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.03369 |
| By: | Lukas Franken; Andrew Lyden; Daniel Friedrich |
| Abstract: | More spatially granular electricity wholesale markets promise more efficient operation and better asset siting in highly renewable power systems. Great Britain is considering moving from its current single-price national wholesale market to a zonal design. Existing studies reach varying and difficult-to-reconcile conclusions about the desirability of a zonal market in GB, partly because they rely on models that vary in their transparency and assumptions about future power systems. Using a novel open-source electricity market model, calibrated to match observed network behaviour, this article quantifies consumer savings, unit-level producer surplus impacts, and broader socioeconomic benefits that would have arisen had a six-zone market operated in Great Britain during 2022-2024. In the absence of mitigating policies, it is estimated that during those three years GB consumers would save approximately {\pounds}9.4/MWh (equalling an average of more than {\pounds}2.3B per year), but generators in northern regions would experience revenue reductions of 30-40\%. Policy interventions can restore these units' national market revenues to up to 97\% while still preserving around {\pounds}3.1/MWh in consumer savings (about {\pounds}750M per year). It is further estimated that the current system could achieve approximately {\pounds}380-{\pounds}770 million in annual welfare gain during 2022-2024 through improved operational efficiency alone. The drivers behind these benefits, notably wind curtailment volumes, are expected to become more pronounced towards 2030, suggesting that purely operationally achieved annual benefits of around {\pounds}1-2 billion beyond 2029 are likely. It is found that the scale of these benefits would outweigh the potential downsides related to increases in the cost of capital that have been estimated elsewhere. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.04107 |
| By: | Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Ingabire, Chantal |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the current levels and participation of crop commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sales divided by the total value of crop production, either at the household or specific crop level. Overall, our findings suggest that approximately 80 percent of farmers participate in crop market sales and sell an average of 33 percent of their total production. However, there is a wide variety of percentage sales by crop and, in general, higher-valued crops are sold by more commercialized farm households. We also find that value of crop production per hectare rises with greater commercialization, suggesting that developing greater market commercialization, particularly with more valuable crops, may increase household incomes and aid in the economic transformation. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; income; surpluses; food crops; cash crops; food security; markets; commercialization; Rwanda; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:poshad:141718 |
| By: | Geis-Thöne, Wido |
| Abstract: | Wie sich die Platzbedarfe in Kitas und Schulen entwickeln, hängt vorwiegend von der demografischen Ausgangslage in den Regionen ab. Diese wird wiederum maßgeblich vom Verlauf der Geburtenzahlen bestimmt. Hier unterscheiden sich die ehemaligen beiden deutschen Staaten auch mehr als drei Jahrzehnte nach der Wiedervereinigung noch immer maßgeblich. Im Osten sind die Geburtenzahlen bereits seit dem Jahr 2016 stark rückläufig, wohingegen sie im Westen noch bis zum Jahr 2021 eine Hochphase erlebt haben. Innerhalb des Westens stechen die ländlichen Gebiete im Süden mit einer besonders positiven Entwicklung im Zeitraum zwischen den Jahren 2016 und 2021 heraus. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich überall in Deutschland ein starkes Stadt-Land-Gefälle mit einer positiveren Entwicklung in den Städten bis etwa zum Jahr 2016 und einer negativeren Entwicklung seitdem. Neben den Geburtenzahlen können auch Wanderungsbewegungen einen Einfluss auf die demografische Ausgangslage haben. Dabei nimmt das Jahr 2022 mit der Aufnahme sehr vieler geflüchteter Kinder und Jugendlicher aus der Ukraine eine absolute Sonderstellung ein. Dennoch zeigt sich in den letzten Jahren bei den kleineren Kindern im Alter unter sechs Jahren deutschlandweit eine substanzielle Abwanderung aus den städtischen Zentren, die die regionalen Platzbedarfe in Kitas und Schulen deutlich verändert. In besonderem Maße gilt das im Süden. Während grundsätzlich alle Kinder im Alter ab sechs Jahren schulpflichtig sind, hängt der Platzbedarf in den Kitas auch von den Betreuungswünschen der Eltern ab. Dabei sind die Betreuungsquoten im Osten sehr viel höher als im Westen und es finden sich auch größere Unterschiede zwischen den einzelnen Bundesländern innerhalb des Westens. Beachtlich ist, dass bei der Betreuung unter Dreijähriger derzeit im Süden ein Stadt-Land-Gefälle und im Osten ein Land-Stadt-Gefälle besteht. Ergänzt man die bereits verfügbaren Bestandszahlen zur Entwicklung der Kinderzahlen um eine einfache Fortschreibung auf Basis der Wanderungsbewegungen und Veränderungen der Geburtenzahlen zwischen den Jahren 2022 und 2023, zeigen sich große Unterschiede zwischen Ost und West bei der Entwicklung der Platzbedarfe in den Kitas. So ist im Westen bisher erst der Hochpunkt bei den unter Dreijährigen, aber noch nicht bei den Drei- bis Fünfjährigen überschritten worden, wohingegen im Osten die Zahlen in beiden Altersgruppen bereits seit einiger Zeit stark rückläufig sind. Dort erreichen die Betreuungsquoten auch bei den unter Dreijährigen schon heute ein sehr hohes Niveau, sodass ein Rückbau der Angebote im Kitabereich unumgänglich erscheint. Allerdings sollten die freiwerdenden personellen Ressourcen nicht abgebaut, sondern zur Verbesserung der Betreuungsrelationen eingesetzt werden. Auch im Grundschulbereich dürfte der Hochpunkt im Osten bereits überschritten sein und lediglich in den weiterführenden Schulen ist noch mit steigenden Schülerzahlen zu rechnen. Hingegen steht der Westen erst am Beginn eines starken Anstiegs der Schülerzahlen in der Sekundarstufe I und in den Grundschulen werden diese aller Voraussicht nach auch noch weiter zunehmen. So muss dort auch noch ein substanzieller Ausbau der Kapazitäten an den Schulen erfolgen, was nicht so einfach zeitnah möglich ist, da sowohl die Ausbildung zusätzlicher Lehrkräfte als auch die Schaffung von Schulgebäuden mit einem substanziellen Zeitaufwand verbunden ist. |
| Keywords: | Demografischer Wandel, Fertilität, Kinder, Binnenwanderung, Kinderbetreuungseinrichtung, Schule, Räumliche Verteilung, Deutschland |
| JEL: | I20 J13 R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:318374 |
| By: | Ali Ozdagli; Dylan Ryfe |
| Abstract: | Asset managers are increasingly influential in financial markets. We use new regulatory as well as manually collected data on asset managers of life insurers, the largest institutional investors of corporate bonds, and find that insurers with the same asset managers have more similar portfolios and trades. This similarity increases further if the asset manager actively oversees the majority of both insurers’ assets. Moreover, the effect intensifies the longer insurers share the same asset manager. Nevertheless, the effect is primarily driven by purchases rather than sales and the resulting increase in correlation of portfolio returns is relatively small, alleviating associated financial stability concerns. |
| Keywords: | insurance companies; asset managers; portfolio similarity; financial stability; investment behavior |
| JEL: | G11 G18 G2 |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99954 |
| By: | Christof Schmidhuber |
| Abstract: | The critical dynamics of conformal field theories on random surfaces is investigated beyond the dynamics of the overall area and the genus. It is found that the evolution of the order parameter in physical time is a multifractal random walk. Accordingly, the higher moments of time variations of the order parameter exhibit multifractal scaling. The series of Hurst exponents is computed and illustrated with the examples of the Ising-, 3-state-Potts-, and general minimal models on a random surface. Models are identified that can replicate the observed multifractal scaling in financial markets. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.23928 |
| By: | Deneault Christa |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data from Texas, I track individuals from high school through college to the workforce to determine the effects of local labor markets on occupational choice. I find local labor market conditions are countercyclical with selection into teaching and have a larger influence when experienced during high school. Individuals sorting into teaching because of poor local labor market conditions are of higher ability (standardized tests) and have higher productivity (value-added). The findings suggest that local labor market fluctuations shape career decisions well before individuals participate in the labor market, and that increasing the relative economic standing of teaching as a career has the potential to improve the future supply of teachers. |
| Keywords: | teachers; occupational choice; college major; local labor markets |
| JEL: | E32 H75 I20 J24 J45 |
| Date: | 2025–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:100075 |
| By: | Ming Hu; Tongwen Wu |
| Abstract: | We study network revenue management problems motivated by applications such as railway ticket sales and hotel room bookings. Request types that require a resource for consecutive stays sequentially arrive with known arrival probabilities. We investigate two scenarios: the reject-or-accept scenario, where the request can be fulfilled by any available resource, and the choice-based scenario, which generalizes the former by incorporating customer preferences through basic attraction models. We develop constant-factor approximation algorithms: $1-1/e$ for the reject-or-accept scenario and $0.125$ for the choice-based scenario. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.00909 |
| By: | Gaviola, Saúl Ricardo; Montano, Aldana R. |
| Abstract: | La implementación de los derechos de extracción para el sector pesquero es un tema de amplia discusión tanto para Argentina como para el mundo. En nuestro país, el Consejo Federal Pesquero (CFP) es el organismo que determina los aranceles de derecho único de extracción para cada especie. En este informe se propone estudiar por especie, el porcentaje que representan estos aranceles del valor Free On Board (FOB) mensual, para el año 2023. Se utilizó información provista por los partes de pesca y actas de descarga del SIFIPA (Sistema Federal de Información de Pesca y Acuicultura), informes de coyuntura de la Subsecretaría de Pesca y Acuicultura de la Nación y datos del Banco Central de la República Argentina. Para las tres principales especies comerciales del caladero argentino, el derecho único de extracción se ubicó entre 0, 09% y 1, 02% con una media de 0, 31%, respecto al valor FOB. |
| Keywords: | Extracción Pesquera; Alicuota; Argentina; |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4321 |
| By: | Mame Astou Diouf; Mr. Boileau Loko; Rasmané Ouedraogo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the link between digitalization and intergenerational occupational mobility in Africa. We use a probit model estimated on a large sample of 28 million individuals aged 14 and higher and co-residing with at least one individual from the older generation. We find that digitalization could help boost upward mobility and limit the risks of downward occupational mobility, thereby improving job opportunities. While strong institutions, political and social stability, better access to adequate digital infrastructure, and education are important to increase and accelerate upward mobility, new technologies and digital tools can intensify these positive effects and contribute to creating jobs and enhancing living standards in Africa. Similar results hold for downward mobility. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational occupational mobility; Digitalization |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/106 |
| By: | Benjamin Bennett; René M. Stulz; Zexi Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of weakening shareholder primacy using Nevada Senate Bill 203 as a quasi-natural experiment. A difference-in-differences analysis shows that, instead of improving their governance in response to the Bill to reassure capital providers, affected firms experience a governance deterioration. As a result, the law’s adoption causes a drop in the valuation of firms incorporated in Nevada. These firms decrease the performance sensitivity of CEO pay, make more but worse acquisitions, and reduce the efficiency of their capital expenditures and R&D. Reducing shareholder primacy does not improve how stakeholders are treated, as ESG performance worsens. |
| JEL: | D22 G32 G34 K22 M14 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33828 |
| By: | Alicia Adsera (Princeton University & IZA); Andreu Arenas (Ivàlua, Universitat de Barcelona, IEB & Institutions and Political Economy Research Group); Carles Boix (Princeton University & Institutions and Political Economy Research Group) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the value of a public health system exploiting a conjoint experiment in nationally representative surveys in Brazil, France and the United States in which respondents choose between different societies that randomly vary in their economic outcomes (country income, income inequality, social mobility), political outcomes (public healthcare, democracy), and the level of personal income for each respondent. This allows us to estimate the respondents’ willingness to trade off publicly provided healthcare for individual income as well as other societal attributes. We find that, on average, individuals have a strong preference for a public health system. They would need a large increase, equal to two times the average income of the country in France, and equal to 50% of the average income of the country in Brazil and the US. Most respondents support public healthcare and they do it with more intensity than its opponents. Demand for state-provided healthcare is largely driven by other-regarding preferences. Respondents that think that poverty is the outcome of luck or lack of connections, and those who lean to the political left and believe the world is zero-sum are more likely to support a public health system. Demographic traits seem uncorrelated with support for a public health system – with the exception of household wealth, which is associated with lower levels of support in France and the US. |
| Keywords: | Public health system, willingness to pay, welfare state, redistribution, conjoint experiment, other-regarding preferences |
| JEL: | H11 H51 I13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2024-17 |
| By: | Dickinson, David L. (Appalachian State University); Villeval, Marie Claire (CNRS) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how group identity affects belief updating about moral norms. Using a Belief Updating task, we found that individuals follow a cautious version of Bayesian updating. Group identity itself does not directly affect belief updating. However, when given an information signal about the truthfulness of a normative statement that is dissonant with one’s perceived norm, individuals differ in their resistance to updating beliefs. This difference depends on whether the statement reflects moral norm judgments from people with the same or different political affiliation, and whether the signal supports or opposes honesty. This highlights the importance of understanding how one updates beliefs regarding moral norms, and how the group identity of those making normative judgments can be an important consideration. |
| Keywords: | online experiment, group identity, belief updating, social norms, cheating |
| JEL: | C91 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17892 |
| By: | Eric A. Baldwin; Takuma Iwasaki; John J. Donohue |
| Abstract: | Fatal school shootings often spark support for stricter gun laws, threatening the gun lobby’s influence and agenda. To prevent political fallout, do pro-gun Political Action Committees increase contributions after fatal school shootings? Leveraging a novel dataset of pro-gun PAC contributions and school shooting incidents, we implement a difference-in-differences design with staggered treatment adoption to estimate the causal effect of school shootings on contributions to House candidates. We find that pro-gun PACs increase contributions by 30.2% to candidates in districts with fatal school shootings, but show no significant response to non-fatal school shootings or other mass shootings. The temporal pattern reveals strategic behavior: contribution spikes emerge in the wake of fatal school shootings and in proximity to elections, with effects dramatically amplified as Election Day approaches; within two months of Election Day, contributions increase by 1, 730%. These effects are concentrated in competitive districts (margins of 5%). Our findings provide robust evidence that pro-gun PACs deploy targeted financial contributions in response to school shootings, with the magnitude and timing suggesting a strategic counter-mobilization effort to maintain influence in affected districts when gun policy becomes locally salient and elections are near. Our findings underscore a gap in democratic accountability: while public opinion should drive policy change, organized interests with financial power can insulate political candidates from public pressure and obstruct its translation into legislative reform. |
| JEL: | C21 C22 C23 D72 D78 K00 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33900 |
| By: | Johannes Buggle; Max Deter; Martin Lange |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how network ties between local social leaders influenced the diffusion of mass protests in an autocracy. We focus on the Protestant Church and the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany. To quantify the role of leader networks in protest diffusion, we compile biographical records of over 1, 600 Protestant pastors, including their employment and education histories. Our findings reveal that network connections led to an increase in protest diffusion by up to 4.9 percentage points in a given week. Moreover, we highlight the importance of network centrality, pastors as information bridges, and the interaction with preexisting grievances and repression. |
| Keywords: | autocracy, religion, protests, networks, leaders |
| JEL: | D72 D74 N44 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0064 |
| By: | Laura Alfaro; Paola Conconi; Fariha Kamal; Zachary Kroff |
| Abstract: | We leverage newly linked data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to study transactions within U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs). We show that using administrative data on intrafirm trade allows us to correct for measurement error in survey data and to identify the positive relationship between input-output (IO) linkages and the probability of trade between U.S. parents and their foreign affiliates. We also document the prevalence of intrafirm trade: more than half (three-quarters) of affiliates worldwide (in North America) export to or import from their U.S. parent. Our findings provide strong empirical support for traditional theories of firm boundaries that predict trade between vertically linked units of the same firm, and underscore the importance of accounting for the trade frictions that shape MNEs’ regional supply chains. |
| JEL: | D23 F14 F23 F4 L20 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33887 |
| By: | Krishna, Eashwar |
| Abstract: | Defining and measuring rurality is a persistent challenge for researchers and policymakers. Threshold-based classifications often create artificial distinctions, failing to capture the continuous nature of the rural-urban spectrum. The Index of Relative Rurality (IRR) developed by Waldorff (2006) offers a continuous, multi-dimensional measure to address this shortcoming. This paper provides a contemporary validation of the IRR, testing a 2020 version of the index against the 2023 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes (RUCC), the 2024 Urban Influence Codes (UIC), and 2020 Decennial Census data on county-level rural population. Using ordered logistic regression, the IRR was found to be a highly statistically significant predictor of both RUCC and UIC classifications, explaining approximately 21% and 15% of their respective variances. Linear regression analysis revealed that the percentage of a county's rural population accounts for a substantial 57.4% of the variance in the multi-dimensional IRR score. These findings confirm that nearly two decades after its inception, the IRR remains a robust and relevant tool. It aligns closely with official governmental classifications while offering a more granular, multi-faceted perspective on rurality, underscoring its continued value for research and policy analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8976b_v1 |