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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Biagio Rosso; Matteo Gatto |
| Abstract: | The role of Occasionally Binding Constraints (OBCs) in transmitting and amplifying macroeconomic shocks in economies institutionally chracterised by market-incompleteness is of increasing interest to quantitative theory and policy. This paper presents a novel framework and iterative algorithm to efficiently formulate and solve for transitional dynamics in a wide class of heterogeneous agent DSGE (HA-DSGE) models with OBCs. The framework accommodates a wide range of constraints, such as policy bounds, without requiring any specific assumptions as to the form of the aggregate shocks must take at an equilibrium solution, and is modelunspecific, marking a departure from the methodological literture on the topic. More imporantly, it preserves key nonlinearities often lost in perturbation-based methods important to retain for a more granular analysis of the interaction between agent heterogeneity and OBCs and its implications for modelling policy transmission through the distribution. In particular, the nonlinearity arising from the interaction, in a rational expectations and forward-looking setting, between the endogenous regime sequence (whether the constraint binds) and the behaviour of heterogeneous agents. The proposed Double Shooting algorithm novelly integrates the Sequence- Space OccBin approach with an iterative and informationally efficient method for solving nonlinearly HA-DSGE models in the sequence space that exploits the availability of a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to efficiently partition the system of equations holding at a sequence space equilibrium and generalising the solution procedure for deterministic transition paths familiar from KS modelling. The algorithm developed is then applied to a fully-fledged one-asset HANK model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rate. The analysis highlights how wealth distributional dynamics along the transition path can critically influence monetary policy effectiveness (and vice versa) both outside and especially at the ZLB. Thereby, we highlight through the potential role of unconventional redistributive fiscal measures and fiscal forward guidance in addressing recessionary-deflationary episodes, converging in a rich quantitative setting to intuitions familiar from the Keynesian and Post-Keynesian literatures. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous Agents DSGE, Occasionally Binding Constraints, Liquidity Trap, In- equality and Monetary Policy, Unconventional Fiscal-Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | C63 D31 E21 E32 E52 E60 E63 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2511 |
| By: | Almerud, Jakob (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Krygier, Dominika (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Lundvall , Henrik (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Njie, Mambuna (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We construct and make available a new monetary policy event study database with high-frequency financial market reactions to Riksbank communications, spanning a period of 20 years. Using these data as instruments, we estimate the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks in Sweden. A temporary, unexpected policy rate tightening induces an immediate and persistent appreciation of the krona exchange rate, as well as a gradual, negative response in output and consumer prices. These results are statistically significant, economically meaningful and robust to a number of variations in our econometric specification. In particular, we consider the possibility that financial market reactions to Riksbank communications may consist not only of pure monetary policy shocks, but could also reflect market participants’ updates concerning the central bank’s reaction function. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy surprise database; monetary policy shocks; intraday; event study; proxy VAR; macroeconomic effects |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 G14 |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0445 |
| By: | Yasuo Hirose; Munechika Katayama; Kozo Ueda; Kota Watanabe |
| Abstract: | This study empirically examines the differences in inflation dynamics between the US and Japan. Using a structural model of sectoral inflation, we quantify the roles of production networks, price stickiness, and structural shocks in driving these variations. Our partial equilibrium framework captures sectoral inflation as a tractable form, enabling us to estimate the model and analytically explore the channels through which pass-through to inflation operates. The model can generate inflation persistence across sectors through production networks, further reinforced by price stickiness within each sector. The full-information Bayesian estimation results reveal that impulse response functions to sectoral shocks are similar between the two countries but that differences in inflation dynamics arise from two factors: the different sources of specific sectoral inflation, particularly in an energy-related sector, and contrasting price-setting behaviors. US firms tend to change prices in the same direction as import price shocks, leading to higher pass-through, whereas Japanese firms are inclined to set prices to absorb import price shocks. Policy experiments based on the estimated model demonstrate that a 10% increase in tariffs results in a 0.6–1.2% rise in US producer price inflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation dynamics, production networks, input-output linkages, price stickiness |
| JEL: | E3 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-22 |
| By: | Ohto Kanninen; Mika Kortelainen; Lassi Tervonen |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of selective schools on students’ educational and labor market outcomes. We utilize regression discontinuity design based on the centralized admission system of upper secondary schools in Finland to obtain quasi-random variation for selective high school offers and attendance. By using nationwide administrative data, we first show that the selective schools do not improve high school exit exam scores, even though there is a large jump in peer quality for students attending selective schools. Despite lacking short-term effects, we find that selective schools increase university enrollment and graduation in the long run. Yet, we do not observe positive effects on income. Importantly, our results suggest that selective high schools or better peer groups do not improve students’ human capital or skills, but affect their preferences on educational choices after the secondary school. |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:345 |
| By: | Bilbao, Iñaki |
| Abstract: | Al momento de plantear un trabajo final, generalmente se elige un tema específico y se desarrollan en particular los conceptos estudiados. En este caso, el trabajo surge de un planteo inverso. Se realiza el enfoque general de este trabajo, partiendo de la premisa que cuando se habla de Especialización en Administración Financiera Gubernamental en Argentina, se entiende que se debe empezar de cero, planteando lo básico, aprender lo fundamental, establecer y aplicar mínimos. Ese es el punto de partida por donde comenzar. En resumen, en una etapa aun distante a profundizar y desarrollar un tema específico, sino más cercana a establecer y estructurar cuestiones generales fundamentales. El sector público en la Argentina es muy frágil, y su estudio y desarrollo muy reciente. Se ha iniciado el camino de implementar cuestiones básicas, el cual, se puede decir que es un camino lente y en el que se ha perdido mucho tiempo. Existe cierta inmadurez en relación a la "cosa" pública, cierta debilidad al reflejar e interpretar el rol del Estado, y cierta desconexión con el interés y el comportamiento ciudadano para con el sector público, incluso se puede percibir una excesiva tolerancia con la corrupción. Es deducible imaginar que estas cuestiones, como en cualquier ámbito, hacen estragos también en todos los niveles de la administración pública. Si bien se ven indicios desde todos los actores a querer cambiar la débil administración pública, en lo práctico, suelen quedar en luchas solitarias de ciertos agentes sociales o ciertos políticos, y no termina de lograr que el tema tome la importancia y la trascendencia que tiene. No se logra poner en la agenda, como prioritario y urgente, el establecimiento de una reforma general que encamine el sector público para que, con un camino claro y determinado, se sienten las bases confiables para el ansiado desarrollo sostenido. A lo largo de este trabajo, se irá haciendo referencia con ejemplos concretos, a la Municipalidad de Necochea. Se tratará de exponer cómo se refleja en el día a día la gran problemática general del débil sector público, en el mencionado ámbito laboral. |
| Keywords: | Administración Pública; Gestión Municipal; |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4255 |
| By: | Pedro Lima (University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics); Tiago Neves Sequeira (University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics); Óscar Afonso (CEF-UP, CEFAGE-UBI and Faculty of Economics of University of Porto) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of lobbying on growth and inequality in a novel directed technical change model, where firms producing different technologies can engage in either demand-seeking lobbying-aimed at increasing demand or rent-seeking lobbying-focused on extracting economic rents. Demand-seeking lobbying promotes economic growth and, when goods are gross substitutes, also increases inequality. In contrast, rent-seeking lobbying has the opposite effects. We also develop a microfounded theoretical game that models generalized lobbying decisions. In this framework, firms from different sectors can either compete or collaborate in their lobbying efforts. The model reveals that lobbying incentives are stronger when fixed costs are low and when shared sources of lobbying efficiency outweigh sector-specific ones. Given our results, it is essential for policy to distinguish between rent-seeking and demand-seeking lobbying practices, and to design targeted incentives for each in order to effectively influence growth and inequality. |
| Keywords: | Lobbying; economic growth; wage inequality |
| JEL: | J31 P16 O30 O41 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2025-01 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | This article reports on the evolution and dispersion of income for French herbivore breeders, distinguishing between several production orientations (dairy cattle, beef cattle, mixed cattle, sheep/goat and mixed farming/poly-breeding) and forage systems (using the weight of forage maize and permanent grassland in the main forage area as segmentation criteria). This analysis is based on processing applied to data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) over a long period (i.e. from 2010 to 2023) and a shorter period (from 2020 to 2023), expressing all values quoted in constant 2023 euros. The income indicator used here is the family farm income per non-salaried agricultural work unit. Several lessons can be drawn from this work: i) on annual average over the period 2010 to 2023, French farms oriented towards herbivore production generated an income (28, 300 euros) that was significantly lower than that of other farms not oriented towards herbivore production (42, 300 euros); ii) there is a high degree of income dispersion, both between the different systems identified and within each of them; iii) labor productivity, productive efficiency and the burden of debt servicing are decisive indicators of income levels; iv) subsidies play a major role in the income of many livestock farms. |
| Abstract: | Cet article rend compte de l'évolution et de la dispersion du revenu des éleveurs français d'herbivores, en distinguant plusieurs orientations de production (bovins-lait, bovins-viande, bovins-mixtes, ovins-caprins et polyculture-polyélevage) et systèmes fourragers (en prenant pour critères de segmentation le poids des surfaces de maïs fourrage et de prairies permanentes dans la surface fourragère principale). Cette analyse est basée sur des traitements appliqués aux données du Réseau d'Information Comptable Agricole (Rica) sur une longue période (2010 à 2023) et plus courte période (de 2020 à 2023), ce en exprimant toutes les valeurs citées en euros constants de 2023. L'indicateur de revenu pris en référence ici est le Résultat Courant Avant Impôt (RCAI) par Unité de Travail Agricole Non Salariée (UTANS). Plusieurs enseignements peuvent être mis en avant suite à ce travail : i) les exploitations françaises orientées vers les productions d'herbivores ont dégagé, en moyenne annuelle sur la période 2010 à 2023, un revenu (28 300 euros) assez nettement inférieur à celui des autres exploitations agricoles non orientées vers la production d'herbivores (42 300 euros) ; ii) il existe une forte dispersion des revenus, tant entre les différents systèmes identifiés qu'au sein de chacun d'eux ; iii) la productivité du travail, l'efficience productive et le poids du service de la dette sont des indicateurs déterminants des niveaux de revenus ; iv) les aides directes jouent un rôle important dans la formation du revenu de nombreuses exploitations d'élevage. |
| Keywords: | Herbivore farms, Forage systems, Income, Subsidies, FADN, Exploitations d’herbivores, Systèmes fourragers, Revenus, Aides directes, RICA |
| Date: | 2025–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05009634 |
| By: | Busemeyer, Marius R.; Jäger, Felix; Baute, Sharon |
| Abstract: | This policy paper explores the relationship between perceptions of political efficacy and economic inequality. The latest findings from the Konstanz Inequality Barometer show that many people feel they have little influence on political decision-making and perceive political institutions as being unresponsive to their needs. As a result, they feel politically sidelined. The study identifies clear statistical correlations between perceptions of political efficacy and economic inequality. The paper concludes with concrete policy recommendations for (re)strengthening political participation. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexpps:315732 |
| By: | Jeong, Minhyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Kyungmin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Hyuk-Hwang (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jeong, Dongyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Wongi (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본고는 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 중앙아시아 글로벌 가치사슬의 구조적 변동을 엄밀하게 분석하고 이를 토대로 한국과 중앙아시아의 새로운 경제협력 방향을 제시하였다. 전쟁 이후 전례 없는 강도로 지속되고 있는 서방의 대러 경제 제재가 장기화할 가능성이 큰 상황이므로 대러 제재가 중앙아시아 글로벌 가치사슬에 미치는 구조적 영향을 분석할 필요가 있다. 특히 최근 중앙아시아 각국이 안정적 경제성장을 위해 수출 경쟁력 향상에 국가적 전력을 다하고 있으므로 이를 반영하여 본고에서는 중앙아시아 수출 측면을 중심으로 대러 제재가 중앙아시아 교역구조에 미치는 영향을 식별하였다. 한편 글로벌 교역환경의 파편화가 가일층 심화하는 상황에서 한국과 중앙아시아 경제협력의 질적 수준을 제고하기 위해서는 대러 제재가 중앙아시아 글로벌 가치사슬에 미치는 객관적 영향을 반영한 새로운 경제협력 방향을 모색하여야 한다. 따라서 본고에서는 중앙아시아 글로벌 가치사슬에 대한 분석 결과를 토대로 한국과 중앙아시아의 미래 경제협력 방향을 제안하였다. This research rigorously analyzes structural changes in Central Asia’s global value chains following the Russia-Ukraine war and proposes new directions for economic cooperation between Korea and Central Asia. Given the high likelihood of prolonged Western economic sanctions against Russia, which have been sustained at unprecedented levels since the war, it is essential to examine the structural impact of these sanctions on Central Asia’s global value chains. In particular, as Central Asian countries have exerted national efforts to enhance export competitiveness to achieve stable economic growth, this study identifies the effects of the sanctions on Central Asia’s trade structure, primarily from the perspective of exports. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Asia; global; value chain; ukraine war; Korea-Central Asia; economic |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2024_021 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Public & Municipal Finance |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39721 |
| By: | Müller, Christoph (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Firms use further training to adapt the skills of employees to new demands –especially important during digital transformation. This study shows that in firms investing in digital technologies, training rates increase more for higher qualified employees compared to low qualified employees. Within larger firms and in knowledge-intensive sectors, the changes in qualification-specific further training rates after IT investments differ less." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Betriebspanel |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202506 |
| By: | Xu, Tao Louie |
| Abstract: | The multi-staged impact of the high-speed railway site-specific complementary policymaking on urban industrialisation remains subject to controversy. This preliminary report examines whether HSR new town planning constrains urban industrialisation with electricity consumption as a proxy for industrial activities. Employing the data of cities in the Yangtze Delta region and the DiD approach, the preliminary regressions estimate the effect of HSR new town policy on urban electricity usage. Our findings indicate a 15% to 20% significant decline in electricity consumption in cities with arranged HSR new town developments, particularly in smaller cities. The preliminary report challenges the assumption that HSR infrastructure inherently facilitates urban growth and calls for more attention to mitigating the negative externalities of transport infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | high-speed railway; new town planning; urban industrialisation; electricity consumption |
| JEL: | O2 R4 Y2 Y6 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124235 |
| By: | Sittipong Somdetch (Faculty of Education, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand Author-2-Name: Ponglikit Petpon Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Lecturer at Faculty of Education, Chulalongkorn University, 10330, Bangkok, Thailand " Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | "Objective - ""To be trusted is a greater compliment than to be loved."" – George McDonald, 1824-1905, Scottish author and Christian minister. This profound statement highlights the vital role of trust in leadership, particularly in educational settings. Trust fosters open communication, collaboration, and a shared sense of purpose, which are essential for achieving educational goals and nurturing the growth and development of all members of the school community. Trust serves as the foundation for positive relationships, effective teaching, and successful learning, ultimately leading to a more cohesive and productive school culture. Methodology/Technique - This article outlines the development of trustworthy leadership for school administrators through studies on 1) Leadership and development frameworks, 2) Trust levels of Thai primary school administrators, 3) Strengths and weaknesses in leadership development, and 4) Strategies for improvement. A multiphase, mixed-methods approach was employed, involving a sample of 1, 185 participants, including directors, deputy directors, and teachers, who were selected through a multi-stage random sampling process. Findings - The data analysis employed both statistical and content methods. Key findings include: 1) Trustworthy Leadership Framework: Four aspects—Competence, Integrity, Openness, and Caring—along with two learning areas: individual (e.g., mentoring, coaching, e-learning) and group (e.g., action learning, networks). 2) Trust Levels: Caring had the highest trust scores; competence had the lowest. Originality - 3) SWOT Analysis: Strengths included mentoring for management competencies, while weaknesses involved group learning through camp training. Technological factors both supported and hindered development in specific areas. 4) Strategies: Two key approaches—transforming group learning (4 sub-strategies) and enhancing individual learning (5 sub-strategies)—were proposed for developing trustworthy leadership. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Trust, trustworthy leadership, leadership development, primary school, school management, school administrators |
| JEL: | D72 I20 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr344 |
| By: | Hinz, Thomas; Marczuk, Anna; Multrus, Frank |
| Abstract: | In Germany, pro-Palestine protests in the form of camps and institute occupations have occurred and continue to take place at universities. Antisemitic incidents have been reported at many of these protests. Following the initial data collection in December 2023, this report provides a new, focused, up-to-date assessment of the opinion climate in the context of the Middle East conflict and antisemitic attitudes at German universities. Exactly one year after the first report, the results of two recent surveys by the Higher Education Research Unit (AG Hochschulforschung) are summarized here. First, based on a large online survey conducted in December 2024 with over 1, 800 students, we report on these students' assessments of the conflict and antisemitic tendencies among them. This follows on directly from the previous study mentioned earlier (Hinz et al., 2024), enabling us to describe possible changes compared to last year. In some places, we also examine the assessments and attitudes of students compared to a sample from the general population. Second, we present the results of a simultaneous survey of university rectorates on antisemitic incidents and the universities' reactions to these incidents. At the invitation of the German Rectors' Conference (HRK), a total of 94 university management teams took part in this separate online survey. The results indicate that universities have been strongly affected by antisemitic incidents and that antisemitic resentment remains at a constant level. A high level of vigilance is still required, particularly with regards to Israel-related antisemitism. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:315740 |
| By: | Colin Weiss |
| Abstract: | Events of the last five years, such as the U.S.-China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and—most recently—Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have raised concerns in the popular press and among policymakers that the international economic and financial system is at risk of becoming significantly fragmented (Aiyar et al., 2023; Ip, 2023; Shin, 2023). Most recently, attention has shifted to the possibility of fragmentation along geopolitical lines, where countries primarily trade with and invest in other countries with which they share close diplomatic and political ties (International Monetary Fund, 2023a, b). |
| Date: | 2023–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2023-08-04-1 |