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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Anthony Brassil (Reserve Bank of Australia); Christopher G Gibbs (University of Sydney); Callum Ryan (Reserve Bank of Australia) |
| Abstract: | Expectations play a central role in the transmission of monetary policy, but how people form expectations is widely debated. We revisit optimal monetary policy design in a model with behavioural expectations that nest rational and adaptive learning beliefs as special cases, and approximates several alternative expectations theories, such as myopic or level- k expectations. Optimal policy is a weighted average inflation target plus adjustments for belief persistence and constraints faced by the central bank (information frictions and the zero lower bound). Optimal policy is well-approximated in all cases by flexible average inflation targeting, where we make explicit what average and flexible mean. |
| Keywords: | optimal policy; behavioural macroeconomics; average inflation targeting; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | D83 D84 E31 E32 E52 E71 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-02 |
| By: | Frederik Kurcz |
| Abstract: | In macroeconomic models featuring borrowing-constrained agents, the effects of monetary policy depend on the fiscal reaction to interest rate changes. This paper presents new evidence on the dynamic causal effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on fiscal instruments and estimates a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with fiscal feedback rules to match the empirical results. I find that U.S. fiscal policy responds to monetaryinduced output contractions with debt-financed, countercyclical tax and transfer policies, amid a gradual decline in spending to accommodate the debt increase. The model implies that monetary policy unopposed by a business cycle stabilization motive of fiscal policy would be roughly one third more contractionary. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic policy, HANK, monetary fiscal interaction, Impulse Response Matching |
| JEL: | E21 E52 E60 E63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2109 |
| By: | Jose Barrales-Ruiz (Center of Economics for Sustainable Development (CEDES), Faculty of Economics and Government, Universidad San Sebastian, Chile.); Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA); Codrina Rada (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA); Rudiger von Arnim (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA) |
| Abstract: | The literature on the empirical linkages between economic growth (or other measures of macroeconomic performance) and the functional distribution of income is copious on the short run. The sustained and simultaneous decline in average rates of real GDP growth and the labor share of income in the US in recent decades has led to renewed interest in the long run, in light of the hypothesis of inequality-induced secular stagnation. This paper employs a vector error correction model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to estimate the long run interaction between real GDP growth, labor share and the unemployment rate. Our key result indicates that a lower labor share is associated with a decline in the growth rate: economic growth is wage-led in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Growth and distribution; stagnation; demand regime |
| JEL: | C32 E12 E25 E32 O40 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2505 |
| By: | Jose Luis Oreiro |
| Abstract: | The current article has two main objectives. The first one is to make a historical reconstruction of the debate between Keynes and Classical economists in the period just after the publication of the General Theory (1937-1939) in order to highlight the differences between Liquidity Preference and Loanable funds theory of interest rate determination. In opposition of what seemed to be a consensus in economic literature (See Oreiro, 2001), both theories had very different implications about the nature of the rate of interest and the role of money in economic process. The second objective is to build a simple Keynesian Stock-Flow consistent model for the funding stage of the process of capital formation, represented by the Finance-Investment-Saving-Funding circuit. This simple model makes clearly that long-term interest rate for corporate bonds is a strict monetary variable, being dependent of liquidity preference of households and the monetary policy conducted by the Central Bank. In such framework, an increase in the households´ s propensity to save will increase, rather then decrease, the long term interest rate over corporate debt since it will decrease corporate profits which are the main source of internal funding for firms´ s investment plans, forcing then to issue more corporate debt in order to get the money required for funding investment, thereby reducing the price of corporate bonds and hence increasing the rate of interest over corporate debt. |
| Keywords: | : John Maynard Keynes, Liquidity Preference, Capital Formation, Finance and Funding. |
| JEL: | E10 E12 E44 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2509 |
| By: | Heise, Arne |
| Abstract: | During the neoliberal era, fiscal policy was side-lined: from a political economy perspective, it was seen as biased toward deficit and debt accumulation, while from a macroeconomic perspective, its potential role as a business cycle stabiliser was shifted to monetary policy, in line with the New Macroeconomic Consensus. This consensus codified the restrictive and passive orientation of fiscal policy through rules such as the European Stability and Growth Pact or Germany's 'Debt Brake.' Following a series of crises, fiscal rules have come under intense criticism, and Keynesian discretionary policy has regained popularity in both theory and practice. This article aims to provide a Post Keynesian perspective on fiscal policy: rejecting the idea of general equilibrium self-regulation and criticising the inherent limitations of (fiscal) policy, it advocates a functionally-oriented capital budgeting approach which favours an expansionary stance on the long-term budget balance and should not be left to the discretion of policy- makers. Instead, it should follow a transparent, non-overridable rule complemented in the short term by the unrestricted operation of automatic stabilisers and, only in exceptional cases, by discretionary measures to prevent severe depressions. |
| Keywords: | Capital Budgeting, Functional Finance, Fiscal policy rule, Post Keynesianism |
| JEL: | E12 E62 H30 H60 H62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:313615 |
| By: | Torój , Andrzej (SGH Warsaw School of Economics); Bęza-Bojanowska, Joanna (Ministry of Finance); Chmura, Rafał (Ministry of Finance); Kroschel, Dominika (Ministry of Finance); Szczypińska, Agnieszka (Ministry of Finance); Wiśnicki, Bartłomiej (SGH Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the properties of the Polish numerical stabilizing expenditure rule (SER) in the context of economic governance review in the EU. To this aim, we use the macroeconometric model NEMPF (Chmura et al., 2024) that offers nuanced, disaggregated mapping between the general government (GG) expenditure categories, the macroeconomic variables (including GDP), and GG revenue categories. This set of detailed links allows for heterogeneous fiscal multipliers by expenditure category, and hence scenario-specific calculation of our categories of interest: the GG revenue, expenditure and balance developments as ratios to GDP. The model-based, endogenous denominator properly accounts for tax base and hence revenue responses to expenditure-side measures. As the Polish SER represents a forward-looking perspective, we propose model solution procedures under model-consistent expectations of policymakers applicable when the perfect foresight assumption is not met. We find that SER generally ensures lower GG deficits (and hence GG debt paths) than policies targeting just-compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) thresholds. That results in lower GG debt trajectories, as well as creates room for counter-cyclical responses. We also demonstrate a few specific numerical properties of the Polish SER, including how the correction mechanism encourages a more restrictive fiscal policy to build countercyclical buffers. |
| Keywords: | fiscal rules; macroeconomic simulation; public finance; European Union |
| JEL: | C54 E62 H30 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:mfplwp:0044 |
| By: | Himanshi Jain; Wendy Cunningham |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor-Employment and Unemployment Finance and Financial Sector Development-Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development-Financial Literacy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Investment & Savings |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40548 |
| By: | Stephanie Johnson; Nitzan Tzur-Ilan |
| Abstract: | The 1990s rollout of mortgage automated underwriting systems allowed for complex underwriting rules, cut processing time and raised house prices substantially. We show that locations exposed to initial adopters of Freddie Mac’s Loan Prospector system experienced an early housing boom due to a switch to statistically-informed underwriting rules. Loan Prospector adoption increased lending at high loan-to-income ratios by around 18 percent. Applying our estimated response to lenders who adopted later, we find that the rollout of new lending standards with the GSEs’ systems can explain more than half of U.S. house price growth between 1993 and 2002. |
| Keywords: | credit; house prices; financial technology; mortgages |
| JEL: | G21 L85 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:99619 |
| By: | Naoko Hara; Yoshiyasu Ono |
| Abstract: | We construct a macroeconomic model based on household wealth preferences to identify the theoretical conditions under which full-employment and/or stagnation steady states hold. The theoretical conditions also specify the minimum level of inflation target that shifts the economy from stagnation to full employment. Applying these conditions to Japanese and US data, we assess whether both economies have experienced stagnation in recent decades. Our findings suggest that both steady states are feasible in Japan, while only the full-employment steady state holds in the US. If Japan were to transition to full employment solely through monetary expansion, the inflation target would need to be 5% or higher, with an immediate and significant price increase unavoidable. Moreover, even if a 5 percent inflation target had been implemented in the late 1990s, it would have led to a welfare loss owing to the substantial reduction in the real value of financial assets caused by the initial price surge and subsequent inflation, which outweigh welfare gains from consumption. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1282 |
| By: | Bobasu, Alina; Repele, Amalia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of firms in the transmission of monetary policy to individual labor market outcomes, both the intensive and extensive margins. Using German matched employer-employee administrative data, we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on individual employment and labor income conditioning on the firm characteristics. First, we find that the employment of workers in young firms are especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks. Second, wages of workers in large firms react relatively more, with some pronounced asymmetries: differences between large and small firms are more evident during monetary policy easing. The differential wage response is driven by above-median workers and cannot be fully explained by a worker component. Notably, larger firms adjust wages more significantly despite experiencing similar changes in investment and turnover compared to smaller firms. Furthermore, monetary policy tightening disproportionately impacts low-skilled and low-wage earners, while easings amplify inequality due to substantial wage increases for top earners. Overall, the effect of monetary policy on inequalities is however larger in easing periods – driven by a large increase in wages for top earners. JEL Classification: E24, E52, E58 |
| Keywords: | employment, labor market, monetary policy, workers type |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253046 |
| By: | Andrew Flores; Dominik Koehler; Leonardo Lucchetti; Clifton Cortez; Jovana Djindji?; Lidija Kuzmanov |
| Keywords: | Gender-Gender and Social Development Gender-Gender and Law Law and Development-Human Rights Law and Development-International Law Social Protections and Labor-Social Protections & Assistance |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40379 |
| By: | Jordi Galí; Davide Debortoli |
| Abstract: | We provide an empirical assessment of a central implication of models with idiosyncratic income risk and incomplete markets: the existence of a role for the distribution of wealth in shaping the dynamics of aggregate consumption. Estimates of consumption Euler equation models extended to include wealth distribution statistics show the latter to have a negligible quantitative impact on aggregate consumption. This contrasts with the important role played by current disposable income, even when we use data for households with (relatively) high liquid wealth. The latter finding suggests the presence of a significant behavioral component behind the high sensitivity of consumption to current income. |
| Keywords: | HANK models, idiosyncratic income risk, incomplete markets, representative household, TANK models |
| JEL: | E21 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1484 |
| By: | daud, Nur amalia |
| Abstract: | Kebijakan moneter merupakan kebijakan otoritas moneter atau bank sentral dalam bentuk pengendalian besaran moneter untuk mencapai perkembangan kegiatan perekonomian yang diinginkan. |
| Date: | 2023–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:j8uq5_v1 |
| By: | Şerife, Erol; Schulten, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | Die Fleischindustrie stand lange wegen prekärer Arbeitsbedingungen in der Kritik. Mit dem Arbeitsschutzkontrollgesetz von 2021 wurden Werkverträge und Leiharbeit verboten, um Beschäftigte besser zu schützen. Doch wie hat sich die Situation seitdem entwickelt? Unsere Untersuchung analysiert die Auswirkungen des Gesetzes auf Arbeits-, Beschäftigungs- und Partizipationsbedingungen sowie -beziehungen - von Verbesserungen bis zu neuen Herausforderungen. Hat die Reform ihr Ziel erreicht oder sind neue Probleme entstanden? Die Untersuchung gibt Einblicke in eine Branche im Wandel und zieht eine Zwischenbilanz der Veränderungen nach dem Arbeitsschutzkontrollgesetz. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsistu:315213 |
| By: | Magerman, Glenn (ECARES at ULB, CEPR and CESIfo); Palazzolo, Alberto (ECARES at ULB and NBB) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes a policy toolbox encompassing trade, industrial, and public policies and their effects on the EU and its geographical regions. We develop a multi-sector, multi-region general equilibrium framework with imperfect competition, input-output linkages, and external economies of scale. Regional and supranational governments set policies and raise taxes and provide subsidies to fund these |
| Keywords: | Deglobalization, Regional Inequalities, Trade policy, Industrial Policy, Public Policy, Supply Chains, General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | F10 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2024/29 |
| By: | Monica Robayo-Abril; Britta Rude |
| Keywords: | Social Development-Social Inclusion & Institutions Gender-Gender Informatics Gender-Gender Monitoring and Evaluation Private Sector Development-Social Entrepreneurship and Business Clusters |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40668 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment-Marine Environment Environment-Persistent Organic Pollutants Environment-Pollution Management & Control |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40362 |
| By: | Zapata, Juan Gonzalo (FEDESARROLLO); Rico, Daniel Mauricio (C-ANÁLISIS S.A.S) |
| Abstract: | Este estudio estima y caracteriza los juegos de suerte y azar ilegales que le compiten al chance en Bogotá y Cundinamarca, esto con el fin de realizar recomendaciones de política y acciones institucionales que permitan mitigar el juego ilegal. La caracterización empleó un método mixto que combina técnicas cuantitativas y cualitativas. Es importante resaltar que, dada la complejidad de estimar y caracterizar economías ilegales debido a su naturaleza y clandestinidad, el estudio utiliza variadas técnicas para conseguir información de contexto que permitan estimar los niveles de ilegalidad en rangos a través de variables proxy. Aunque se presenta una medida precisa sobre el mercado de juegos de suerte y azar, se recomienda también revisar el un conjunto de evidencias sobre las que construimos un análisis que aporte un rango de valores de mayor fiabilidad. El documento se encuentra dividido en seis capítulos siendo esta introducción el primero. El segundo consiste en un resumen ejecutivo de los resultados del estudio. La tercera sección explora la relación entre recaudo fiscal y JSA y chance. Los capítulos cuatro y cinco presentan, respectivamente, los resultados cualitativos y cuantitativos. La última sección presenta una serie de hallazgos y recomendaciones de política pública para control del fenómeno del chance ilegal. |
| Keywords: | Juegos de Suerte y Azar; Loterías; Finanzas Públicas; Finanzas Departamentales; Mercado Ilegal; Salud |
| JEL: | H75 I18 L83 |
| Date: | 2024–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:021060 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Forecasting Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40544 |
| By: | Benavides (Dir. proy.), Juan (FEDESARROLLO); García, Helena (FEDESARROLLO); García, María Claudia (FEDESARROLLO); Cadena, Ximena (Seleccione un banco); Atuesta, Constanza; Delgado-Rojas, Martha Elena (FEDESARROLLO); Blanco, Javier; Medellín, Juan Camilo (FEDESARROLLO); Fonseca, María Alejandra (FEDESARROLLO) |
| Abstract: | El proyecto NDC Action es una iniciativa del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA) en colaboración con el Centro Climático de Copenhague (UNEP CCC), que tiene como objetivo facilitar la implementación de un desarrollo resiliente al clima y de bajas emisiones de carbono alineado con los objetivos nacionales y globales, mediante la dinamización de las NDC. Previamente, Fedesarrollo contribuyó al proyecto mediante la implementación de un plan de trabajo anual para llevar a cabo una hoja de ruta para la implementación de las iniciativas de la NDC y, posteriormente, proporcionó recomendaciones para fortalecer los instrumentos financieros en dos sectores prioritarios: Eficiencia Energética en el sector industrial y AFOLU. Con lo anterior, este estudio se centró en apoyar al Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (MADS) en el diseño de estrategias para el fortalecimiento de la institucionalidad climática del país y la dinamización de la inversión en la implementación de la NDC mediante la creación de un modelo de aceleración de proyectos para escalar el financiamiento climático en Colombia que incluyó el desarrollo de un proceso de fortalecimiento de capacidades en el diseño y estructuración de proyectos climáticos y el uso de la herramienta GACMO desarrollada por PNUMA para la cuantificación y el costeo de medidas de la NDC. |
| Keywords: | Eficiencia Energética; AFOLU; Inversión Climática; Gobernanza de la NDC |
| JEL: | L94 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:021065 |
| By: | Paula Scholz (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how salary differences, gender stereotypes and prior leadership experience influence the willingness to pursue leadership roles. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, I focus on communication and coordination responsibilities of leaders. In the experiment, subjects are randomly assigned to leadership positions in a public goods game in which the leader communicates with and coordinates the team. Afterwards, I elicit the willingness to pay to become the leader varying whether the position comes with a low or high salary. I find that women have a substantially lower willingness to pay to attain the leadership position compared to men if and only if it comes with a high salary. Despite women being equally effective team leaders as men, belief elicitation shows that high salaries shift leadership roles from being perceived as stereotypical female to stereotypical male. This stereotypical perception of associating a highly paid leader with men translates into subjects' willingness to pay to attain the position. Exogenous exposure to leadership roles does not reduce the gender application gap, suggesting that experience alone cannot overcome instilled stereotypes. |
| Keywords: | Gender, Leadership, Stereotypes, Behavioral Decision Making |
| JEL: | C91 D83 J16 M21 M51 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:359 |
| By: | Waasi, Nur |
| Abstract: | Islam telah menetapkan sektor-sektor penerimaan pemerintah melalui zakat, ghanimah, fai, jizyah, kharaj, shadaqah, dan lain-lain. Jika diklasifikasikan maka pendapatan tersebut ada yang bersifat rutin seperti: zakat, jizyah, kharaj, ushr, infak dan shadaqah serta pajak jika diperlukan, dan ada yang bersifat temporer seperti: ghanimah, fa’i dan harta yang tidak ada pewarisnya. |
| Date: | 2023–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:j47by_v1 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education-Education Reform and Management Information and Communication Technologies-ICT Applications |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40466 |
| By: | Kinda Hachem; Martin Kuncl |
| Abstract: | Several countries now require banks or money market funds to impose state-contingent costs on short-term creditors to absorb financial stress. We study these requirements as part of the broader prudential toolkit in a model with five key ingredients: banks may face an aggregate stress state with high withdrawals; a fire-sale externality motivates a mix of non-contingent and state-contingent regulation; banks may use shadow technologies to circumvent regulation; parameters of the shadow technologies may be private information; and bailouts may occur. We characterize the optimal policy for various combinations of these ingredients and demonstrate that the threat of shadow activities constrains state-contingent regulation more than noncontingent regulation, especially when imperfect information and limited commitment coexist. The planner triggers shadow activities with positive probability under imperfect information, and shadow activities that deplete resources in the stress state elicit larger bailouts under limited commitment, rendering the requirement of state-contingent costs a weak instrument. |
| Keywords: | pecuniary externality; bailout; Bail-in; shadow banking; optimal regulation |
| JEL: | D62 E61 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:99645 |
| By: | Moav, Omer (University of Warwick & Reichman University); Pascali, Luigi (UPF & LUISS); Pauzner, Ady (Tel Aviv University & Reichman University) |
| Abstract: | Cooperation in joint ventures is widespread, despite its vulnerability to defection. It can emerge when the interaction is repeated and agents are patient enough to prefer the benefits of future cooperation over the short-term gains from defection. Thus, if a large fraction of the population consists of impatient exploiters who always defect and agents are randomly paired to play a repeated prisoner dilemma game, patient agents defect as well, and society is in a no-cooperation trap. We show that the existence of an outside option can break this trap even if the fraction of patient agents is arbitrarily small. Impatient agents self-select out of the game, allowing patient agents to cooperate. Patience thus has an evolutionary advantage, leading to widespread cooperation. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1554 |
| By: | Bernhard C. Dannemann (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Erkan Goeren (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:451 |
| By: | Banao, Fawzi |
| Abstract: | In a context of persistent challenges surrounding border security in Africa, this study investigates the impact of defense policies on internal security by using gold-related customs fraud as a proxy for cross border crime over the period 2000–2019. Defense policy is captured through two key indicators: military expenditures and the size of armed forces personnel. The empirical strategy relies on multiple econometric techniques, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results reveal that both increased military spending and expansion of armed forces personnel are significantly associated with a reduction in gold-related customs fraud. Moreover, the findings indicate that expanding the size of armed forces is more effective than merely increasing defense budgets in curbing such illicit activities. The impact is particularly pronounced in the Sahel region, where intensified military mobilization leads to a more substantial decline in cross-border smuggling compared to other parts of the continent. The study concludes with a set of strategic policy recommendations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions in high-risk and vulnerable regions such as the Sahel. |
| Keywords: | Gold customs fraud, Military expenditures, National armed forces personnel |
| JEL: | H56 O17 F52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:314453 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Public & Municipal Finance Education-Education Finance Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Economics & Finance |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40337 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure Economics and Finance-Infrastructure Finance Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change Agriculture-Agricultural Sector Economics Energy-Energy Policies & Economics |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40309 |
| By: | Nicholas-James Clavet; Xavier Dufour-Simard; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | → Summary Governments at both federal and provincial level are making considerable financial efforts to develop and modify tax measures aimed to improve the incentive to work. At the same time, there is a real willingness in the population to work more if the perceived financial gain is sufficient. In this study, the authors document the evolution of work disincentives in the Quebec population from 2017 to 2023, highlighting in particular the significant heterogeneity in the evolution of the disincentives faced by taxpayers. Using an original survey designed specifically for this study, they compare reality with perceptions in order to measure the population's degree of understanding of work incentives and specific tax measures. The authors show that the population's understanding of the impact of tax measures on work incentives is very poor. For example, respondents have considerable difficulty in incorporating the notion of recovery tax aid into their assessment of the incentive to work. As a result, specific tax measures are unlikely to have an effect on behaviour. The existence of a large number of poorly understood tax measures deprives governments of considerable revenue and forces them to pass this cost on to all taxpayers through a tax system with higher rates. In this context, the authors suggest that governments need to improve the way they explain new tax measures. At least, indicators of awareness and perception of the measures should be periodically collected and incorporated into the evaluation of tax measures. The government should also carry out a periodic review of the effectiveness of existing measures and study the possibility of putting a stop to the number of tax measures in order to force a government that wants to add a measure to eliminate an existing one. → Sommaire Les gouvernements, tant au niveau fédéral que provincial, font des efforts financiers considérables pour développer et modifier des mesures fiscales visant à améliorer l’incitation au travail. Parallèlement, il y a dans la population une volonté réelle de travailler davantage si le gain financier perçu est suffisant. Dans cette étude, les auteurs documentent l’évolution de l’incitation au travail de 2017 à 2023 en mettant notamment en évidence la grande hétérogénéité dans l’évolution des désincitatifs auxquels les contribuables font face. À partir d’une enquête originale conçue spécifiquement pour cette étude, ils confrontent la réalité aux perceptions afin de mesurer le degré de compréhension de la population à propos des incitatifs au travail et des mesures fiscales particulières. Les auteurs montrent que la compréhension de l’impact des mesures fiscales sur l’incitation au travail est très faible dans la population. Par exemple, les répondants ont des difficultés considérables à intégrer la notion de récupération de l’aide fiscale dans leur évaluation de l’incitation au travail. Il en résulte que les mesures fiscales spécifiques sont peu susceptibles d’avoir un effet sur les comportements. L’existence d’un grand nombre de mesures fiscales mal comprises prive les gouvernements de recettes considérables et les force à faire supporter ce coût par l’ensemble des contribuables par le biais d’un barème d’imposition avec des taux plus élevés. Dans ce contexte, les auteurs suggèrent que les gouvernements doivent améliorer leur façon d’expliquer les nouvelles mesures fiscales. Au minimum, des indicateurs de connaissance et de perception des mesures devraient être périodiquement récoltés et intégrés dans l’évaluation des mesures fiscales. Le gouvernement devrait aussi procéder à un examen périodique de l’efficacité des mesures existantes et étudier la possibilité de mettre un cran d’arrêt sur le nombre de mesures fiscales afin de forcer un gouvernement qui voudrait ajouter une mesure à devoir en éliminer une existante. |
| Keywords: | Work incentives, labour market, tax measures, financial incentives, taxation, Incitation au travail, marché du travail, mesures fiscales, incitatifs financiers, fiscalité |
| Date: | 2025–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2025rp-11 |
| By: | Janine Aron; John Muellbauer |
| Abstract: | Aggregate consumption typically exceeds 60 per cent of GDP and should be pivotal in central bank policy models. Most use semi-structural macro-models, yet consumption is usually inadequately specified. We use a systems approach to estimate new equations for South African consumption, house prices, mortgage and non-mortgage debt, and income forecasting. A credit-augmented consumption function approach introduces a greater role for uncertainty and a key role for credit conditions, and varies the spendability of different wealth components. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, House prices, Credit, Household Debt, Monetary policy, Households balance sheets |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-8 |
| By: | Mikel Navarro (Orkestra - Basque Institute of Competitiveness) |
| Abstract: | Este documento revisa la literatura de indicadores de orientación académica, para entender el papel que estos desempeñan en un marco de análisis de un concepto complejo como el del bienestar. Para eso, tras exponer el debate existente sobre si hay lugar para los indicadores en la operacionalización o medida de conceptos simples, el documento se centra en el proceso de operacionalización de los conceptos complejos. Con respecto a este, define y caracteriza los elementos clave de cada una de las etapas del proceso de medición u operacionalización (a saber, constructos, dimensiones, indicadores e índices), las relaciones que se establecen entre ellos y los tipos de constructos e indicadores que resultan según sea el tipo de relación. |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivc:wpaper:2023r03 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population-Adolescent Health Health, Nutrition and Population-Climate Change and Health Health, Nutrition and Population-Reproductive Health Gender-Gender and Health |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40429 |
| By: | Vivarelli, Marco; Piva, Mariacristina; Tani, Massimiliano |
| Abstract: | Labor mobility is considered a powerful channel to acquire external knowledge and trigger complementarities in the innovation and R&D investment strategies; however, the extant literature has focused on either scientists' mobility or migration of high-skilled workers, while virtually no attention has been devoted to the possible role of short-term business visits. Using a unique and novel database originating a country/sector unbalanced panel over the period 1998-2019 (for a total of 8, 316 longitudinal observations), this paper aims to fill this gap by testing the impact of BVs on R&D investment. Results from GMM-SYS estimates show that short-term mobility positively and significantly affects R&D investments; moreover, our findings indicate - as expected - that the beneficial impact of BVs is particularly significant in less innovative countries and in less innovative industries. These outcomes justify some form of support for BVs within the portfolio of the effective innovation policies, both at the national and local level. |
| Keywords: | Business visits, labor mobility, knowledge transfer, R&D investments |
| JEL: | O3 F2 J6 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1586 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a unified framework linking subjective preferences, stock market behavior, and quantum neuroscience, arguing that financial decision-making originates in quantum cognitive processes rather than classical neural determinism. Preferences, judgments, and ideas are modeled as quantum states evolving within a cognitive Hilbert space, governed by a preference Hamiltonian. These quantum states—subject to superposition, tunneling, entanglement, and uncertainty—explain why investor behavior is inherently probabilistic, context-dependent, and often non-rational. Market prices emerge as observable outcomes of wavefunction collapse across interacting agents, while crashes and bubbles are modeled through quantum tunneling and collective decoherence. We derive a quantum uncertainty principle showing that evaluation volatility and risk perception are fundamentally bounded. Anomalies observed in behavioral and experimental economics, including framing effects and preference reversals, are explained through non-commuting cognitive operators and dynamic, operator-valued utilities. This framework reinterprets market irrationality as a natural consequence of quantum consciousness and provides a rigorous, empirically consistent theory of financial behavior. |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:752 |
| By: | Prakasa, Alberian Rezi; Afriyeni, Afriyeni |
| Abstract: | Penelitian ini dibuat bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana penerapan manajemen risiko operasional unit teller pada PT Bank Tabungan Negara Kantor Cabang Padang. Metode analisis data yang digunakan dalam penulisan ini adalah metode deskriptif dengan pola pikir induktif, yaitu menjelaskan hasil penelitian berdasarkan fakta-fakta yang ada. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa PT Bank tabungan Negara Kantor Cabang Padang menerapkan manajemen risiko operasional sesuai dengan prosedur yang telah ditetapkan oleh unit perbankan. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa PT Bank tabungan Negara kantor cabang padang menerapkan manajemen risiko operasional sesuai dengan prosedur yang telah ditetapkan oleh unit perbankan. Hal ini dapat dilihat melalui salah satu kasus yang terjadi pada unit teller yaitu kasus kurang informatifnya unit teller dalam menyampaikan informasi terbaru kepada nasabah , sehingga timbul rasa kekecewaan dan ketidakpuasan nasabah terhadap pelayanan yang dilakukan oleh unit teller. |
| Date: | 2023–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:x3g2e_v1 |
| By: | IFC; Amundi |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Capital Markets and Capital Flows Finance and Financial Sector Development-Mutual Funds Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40336 |
| By: | Sabir, Muhammad Resa Putra; Mokodompit, Eliyanti Agus |
| Abstract: | Indonesia disebut sebagai negara maritim karena dibuktikan dengan Indonesia memiliki lebih dari 17.000 gugusan pulau, antar pulau satu dengan lainnya dipisahkan oleh laut. Indonesia memiliki potensi maritim yang sangat besar dan penting. Dengan kepulauan yang luas dan garis pantai yang panjang, negara ini memiliki sumber daya kelautan yang melimpah, seperti kekayaan hayati, sumber daya energi, dan potensi pariwisata. Pemahaman mendalam tentang potensi maritim Indonesia memungkinkan pengembangan yang berkelanjutan dan pengelolaan yang baik terhadap sumber daya kelautan. Dengan pemetaan yang akurat dan pemahaman yang baik tentang potensi ekonomi, lingkungan, dan strategis, Indonesia dapat mengoptimalkan pemanfaatan sumber daya maritim untuk kesejahteraan masyarakat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. |
| Date: | 2023–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:dnrt3_v1 |
| By: | Dietzenbacher, Bas (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, QE Math. Economics & Game Theory); Vermeulen, Dries (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, QE Math. Economics & Game Theory, RS: GSBE MCM) |
| Abstract: | For communication situations where the communication possibilities of players are modeled by an undirected graph, we study to what extent Myerson’s graph-restricted game inherits properties from the original transferable utility game. We focus on monotonicity, additivity, superadditivity, convexity, imputation admissibility, balancedness, total balancedness, population monotonic allocation schemes, and exactness. For each of these properties, we characterize all communication graphs that guarantee the inheritance. We present existing results from the literature and we provide new results. |
| JEL: | C71 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2025003 |
| By: | Sreevidya Ayyar (London School of Economics); Uta Bolt (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Eric French (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Cormac O'Dea (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/09 |
| By: | Jaschke, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Auer, Daniel (Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Mannheim); Hunkler, Christian (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Salikutluk, Zerrin (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin und German Centre for Integration and Migration Research, DeZIM); Sprengholz, Maximilian (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Kubis, Alexander (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Members of certain minority groups are disadvantaged in different areas of society, such as the labor and housing market and the healthcare system. This is referred to as discrimination if people are disadvantaged solely based on their group membership (e.g., ethnic background or religious affiliation), even though the objective matching criteria are equal, e.g., regarding qualifications. In this research report, we analyze the recruitment chances of immigrants and members of religious minorities using a vignette experiment. For this purpose, we recontacted around 10, 000 firms that had already taken part in the large-scale and representative IAB Job-Vacancy-Survey 1.5 years ago. Consequently, the follow-up survey as part of our study was very brief, requiring little additional effort by firms, as extensive information on a wide range of relevant information was already collected from their previous participation. This may explain the high response rate to our experiment of almost 50 percent. The analyses in this report are based on the responses of 4, 883 firms. Vignette experiments are particularly suited to causally study determinants of hiring prospects because by collecting employers’ assessment on sufficiently many vignettes (with randomized applicants’ characteristics), they provide a controlled setting to account for all relevant applicant characteristics. Even though vignettes describe fictitious situations, experiment results have been shown to provide high congruence with real decision-making. We provided firms with descriptions of fictitious job applicants, randomly varying, among other traits (such as job experience, language proficiency), origin countries (Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia with “is German” as baseline) and religious affiliation (Christian and Muslim compared to a baseline without religious signal). Holding qualifications constant, on average, we do not find lower hiring probabilities for applicants born abroad compared to German applicants. However, our results provide strong evidence of anti-Muslim labor market discrimination in Germany. This effect is driven by applicants from predominantly Muslim countries (Syria and Turkey in our case), which confirms previous results in the literature according to which discrimination against Muslims originating from countries that are generally perceived as more authoritarian and gender unequal is stronger. This is alarming given that – unlike in our vignette experiment – people in Germany born abroad are much more often Muslim than German-born people (almost a quarter compared to less than 2 percent). Looking at further applicants’ characteristics, we find strong evidence in favor of the so-called ‘motherhood penalty’, according to which females are hired less frequently than males if they have children. Moreover, human capital can, at least partially, alleviate foreign applicants' hiring disadvantages: Applicants born abroad benefit from higher levels of German language skills and from professional experience – particularly if obtained in Germany. Regarding firm characteristics, small firms, firms operating in the primary and secondary sector, and firms that do not hire internationally discriminate more. Most relevant for policy, firms facing labor shortages only increase hiring chances for advantaged applicant groups (German applicants and males) but not for disadvantaged groups. These results suggest that firms in Germany do not consider recruiting from traditionally disadvantaged groups – even if equally qualified – as a way to overcome often lamented labor shortages. A list experiment conducted with firms in parallel cross-validates that a significant proportion of firms in Germany discriminate against refugees and Muslims. Taken together, our results provide multiple avenues for policy action." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Benachteiligung ; berufliche Integration ; Berufserfahrung ; Diskriminierung ; Einwanderer ; Frauen ; Kleinbetrieb ; Minderheiten ; Muslime ; Personaleinstellung ; primärer Sektor ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; sekundärer Sektor ; Sprachkenntnisse ; Arbeitsmarktchancen ; 2023-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202506 |