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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Grzegorz Wesołowski (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Oleg Gurshev (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates that key macroeconomic shocks originating in the United States contribute significantly to business cycle synchronization between the US and other economies. These shocks also account for a substantial part of output fluctuations in these economies. Using panel local projection regressions with small sample refinements, we find that six major US shocks explain 21% - 28% of the forecast error variance in the GDP of open economies over a three-year horizon. Considering individual shock contributions, we document that technology and monetary policy innovations are of the highest relevance. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic shocks, International spillovers, International business cycles, Technology shocks, Monetary policy, Financial shocks, Fiscal policy, Investment shocks |
| JEL: | E23 E32 E52 E62 F44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-06 |
| By: | Takeo Hori (Department of Industrial Engineering and Economics, School of Engineering, Institute of Science Tokyo); Ryonghun Im (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | The collapse of asset bubbles leads to a demand-driven recession. When capital utilization is endogenous and capital creation is subject to idiosyncratic risks, aggregate demand significantly influences output, even with flexible prices. The bursting of bubbles causes a sharp decline in consumption and investment demand, forcing firms to reduce capital utilization. As a result, output and long-run growth contract suddenly and severely, pushing the economy into a demand recession. Nominal rigidities further deepen the downturn. Policies that stimulate aggregate demand, such as consumption and investment subsidies, can help prevent such recessions. |
| Keywords: | asset bubbles, demand recession, capital utilization, uninsured idiosyncratic risks, flexible price, zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G1 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:287 |
| By: | Diaf, Sami; Zakane, Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Gauging the impact of oil price variations on small, oil-exporting countries has been heavily investigated under the umbrella of monetary policy interventions, using a standard general equilibrium framework. For some countries, the monetary policy coordinates with fiscal policy to deliver a better response to external oil shocks in an attempt to make the economic activity resilient to external backlash. This paper investigates the policy mix effectiveness in a small open economy, namely Algeria, and its ability to mitigate a negative oil price shock, using a DSGE model that maps several frictions found in single-commodity economies as for a managed exchange rate regime, the existence of a foreign exchange market accessible to households and a sovereign wealth fund. Simulations show countercyclical fiscal measures (increase in government spending) coupled with monetary interventions have no expansionary effects on output, but still necessary to maintain a resilient economic activity especially for the non-oil sector. Under the sticky prices assumption, households tend to lower their investment and consumptions levels, in addition of using their foreign currency savings as buffer. This results in alleviating potential pressures on the supply side and preventing possible inflation spikes. Findings confirm the effectiveness of a monetary policy based on targeting export products, to better handle the negative terms of trade shock via a slight exchange rate depreciation. However, the fiscal dominance in the policy-mix leads to the accumulation of public debt, which might require fiscal consolidation during protracted periods of declining oil prices. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; fiscal policy; exchange rate; oil prices; external shock |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E63 F31 F41 H54 H63 Q35 Q38 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:dynare:083 |
| By: | Jonathan J Adams (Department of Economics, University of Florida); Symeon Taipliadis (Department of Economics, University of Florida) |
| Abstract: | Some inflation forecast errors are predictable. Economic theory predicts that these belief distortions affect the business cycle. How should monetary policy respond? We investigate this question with a model-free approach using high-frequency monetary policy shocks and a structural VAR method to identify the effects of shocks to belief distortions. Belief distortion shocks are contractionary: if households become overly pessimistic about inflation, then unemployment and deflation follow. Intuitively, the optimal policy response is to ease. This is most effective with short-term rates; we find that a $1$ p.p. increase in the belief distortion is optimally offset by a $0.85$ p.p. surprise interest rate decrease. Monetary policy targeting longer-term rates is less effective but also useful. |
| JEL: | E52 E30 D84 E70 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ufl:wpaper:001016 |
| By: | Junko Koeda (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University); Bin Wei (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of outcome-based forward guidance, a key monetary policy tool that links a central bank’s policy decisions to specific economic outcomes. We develop a novel macro-finance shadow rate term structure model that incorporates unspanned macro factors and an outcome-based liftoff condition. To assess the effectiveness of forward guidance, we propose a novel method that decomposes the shadow rate into components attributable to forward guidance and other unconventional monetary policies. Using maximum likelihood estimation with an extended Kalman filter, we apply the model to both the United States and Japan. Our findings demonstrate that outcome-based forward guidance is effective, delivering significant monetary easing effects on the real economy during both effective lower bound periods of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, as well as during Japan’s era of unconventional monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | forward guidance, effective lower bound (ELB), liftoff, term structure, shadow rate, macro finance, unspanned macro factors |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2423 |
| By: | Bastien Buchwalter (SKEMA Business School and Universite Cote d’Azur); Francis X. Diebold (University of Pennsylvania & NBER); Kamil Yilmaz (Koc University) |
| Abstract: | We study the properties of macroeconomic survey forecast response averages as the number of survey respondents grows. Such averages are “portfolios” of forecasts. We characterize the speed and pattern of the gains from diversification and their eventual decrease with portfolio size (the number of survey respondents) in both (1) the key real-world data-based environment of the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), and (2) the theoretical model-based environment of equicorrelated forecast errors. We proceed by proposing and comparing various direct and model-based “crowd size signature plots”, which summarize the forecasting performance of k-average forecasts as a function of k, where k is the number of forecasts in the average. We then estimate the equicorrelation model for growth and inflation forecast errors by choosing model parameters to minimize the divergence between direct and model-based signature plots. The results indicate near-perfect equicorrelation model fit for both growth and inflation, which we explicate by showing analytically that, under conditions, the direct and fitted equicorrelation model-based signature plots are identical at a particular model parameter configuration. We find that the gains from diversification are greater for inflation forecasts than for growth forecasts, but that both gains nevertheless decrease quite quickly, so that fewer SPF respondents than currently used may be adequate. |
| Keywords: | Network, Centrality, Spillover, Contagion, Interdependence, Co-movement |
| JEL: | F01 G01 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:25-009 |
| By: | Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Mariana Marchionni (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Mariana Viollaz (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change. |
| JEL: | J16 J21 J22 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0346 |
| By: | Catherine Guirkinger (Development Finance and Public Policies, University of Namur); Quentin Stoeffler (Bordeaux School of Economics, University of Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how artisanal gold mining affect household investment in primary education in Burkina Faso. Using a variety of estimation methods with primary data and secondary data, we find a significant, robust and strong negative effect of artisanal mining on primary school enrolment for boys but not for girls. We explore potential channels and find that direct involvement in mining work does not explain the results. However, children appear to substitute for their parents working in mines (or other activities that developed after the mining boom). In addition, elicited perceived returns to primary education are negatively affected by the presence of mines. Both mechanisms suggest an indirect increase in the opportunity cost of education. We find no evidence of a negative income effect or of a change in school supply which could affect the direct cost of education. Our findings suggest that artisanal mining causes negative externalities on human capital accumulation that need to be addressed if mining is to contribute to poor household livelihoods. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nam:defipp:2503 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development-Public & Municipal Finance |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41438 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development-Public & Municipal Finance |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41443 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development-Public & Municipal Finance |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41436 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41089 |
| By: | Ramadhani, Salwa Sauma |
| Abstract: | proses yang wajar dan alamiah sehingga segala sesuatu yang ada di dunia ini akan selalu berubah |
| Date: | 2023–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:nq7eh_v1 |
| By: | Fitria, Tegar |
| Abstract: | Manager adalah Seseorang yang bertugas/bertanggung jawab mengkoordinasikan dan mengawasi pekerjaan dari orang lain sehingga tujuan organisasi dapat tercapai. |
| Date: | 2023–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:qh4ty_v1 |
| By: | Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) |
| Keywords: | Energy-Renewable Energy Social Protections and Labor-Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor-Skills Development and Labor Force Training |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41077 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment-Environmental Protection Water Supply and Sanitation-Urban Solid Waste Management |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41271 |
| By: | Ningtias, Devi Nakafah |
| Abstract: | Didalam Perusahaan atau entitas bisnis serta organisasi pasti didalamnya terdapat orang-orang dengan latar belakang yang berbeda. Beragam suku, budaya, bahasa, agama dan lain sebagainya. Hal tersebut dapat menjadi pembangun keberagaman, keberagaman tersebut pun harus dikelola agar perbedaan tersebut tidak menimbulkan suatu masalah dalam organisasi. |
| Date: | 2023–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:xkn2y_v1 |
| By: | ONISHI Fuyuko (Bank of Japan); HIRAI Yuichiro (Bank of Japan); ARUGA Ryo (Bank of Japan); BESSHO Hidemi (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In the foreign exchange market, electronic trading (e-FX) has developed and expanded, bringing benefits such as lower trading costs and more trading options. To take advantage of these benefits, e-FX customers need to choose appropriate trading venues and methods. In addition, the development of e-FX has led to a fragmentation of liquidity in the foreign exchange market, making it more difficult to monitor market trends, and there are concerns that price discovery in the foreign exchange market may be undermined in the future. Furthermore, as the e-FX infrastructure advances internationally, the presence of the Tokyo market as a financial center may be affected, involving an outflow of foreign exchange transactions. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Exchange Market; Electronic Trading; Market Structure |
| JEL: | F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev25e04 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Finance and Development Governance-Governance and the Financial Sector |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40804 |
| By: | Yijia Chen; Kangmin Wu; |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is a key driver of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Despite growing interest in the geography of AI, our understanding of how AI integrates into regional contexts remains limited. In response, we examine the integration of AI into regional technological domains in China and the United States using patent data. Theoretically, we develop a framework by introducing the concepts of intra- and extra-regional AI relatedness. Our findings reveal that the integration of AI into regional technological domains is positively associated with both intra-regional and extra-regional AI relatedness. Additionally, extra-regional AI relatedness can moderate the lack of intra-regional AI relatedness. |
| Keywords: | integration of artificial intelligence, intra-regional AI relatedness, extra-regional AI relatedness, regional technological domains, China, the United States |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2507 |
| By: | Setiyani, Nanda Auliya |
| Abstract: | Managing diversity 2023 |
| Date: | 2023–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:fk5pu_v1 |