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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of country-specific energy prices on food consumer price inflation (CPI) within a cross-country Phillips curve framework. It considers a panel of 36 OECD member and candidate economies using quarterly data from the start of 1994 to the end of 2021. We find that energy CPI inflation has a significantly positive effect on food CPI inflation, after controlling for the output gap, exchange rate changes and global factors. This result is generally robust to also controlling for inflation expectations, global food commodity prices and core CPI inflation. We also find that the effect of energy CPI inflation on food CPI inflation is significantly larger when energy dependency is higher. |
| Keywords: | inflation, food prices, energy prices |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11682 |
| By: | Felipe Alves; Giovanni L. Violante |
| Abstract: | The current monetary policy framework of the Fed intends to be more ’inclusive’ by running the economy hot for longer during expansions. The logic of this strategy rests on Okun’s (1973) hypothesis that sustaining a ‘high-pressure economy’ persistently improves labor market outcomes of low-wage workers. To evaluate this conjecture, we develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian framework with a three-state frictional model of the labor market where low-skilled workers are more exposed to the business cycle and recessions have a long-lasting effect on their labor force participation and earnings, in line with the evidence. Under a canonical Inflation Targeting rule, the ZLB generates a deflationary bias and severely amplifies the persistent scars of recessions at the bottom of the wage distribution. The Lower-for-Longer strategy is an effective antidote to the ZLB-driven hysteresis and leads to notable earnings gains for low-wage workers and a reduction to overall earnings inequality. If pursued aggressively, however, the policy reverts the inflation bias from negative to positive. Since policymakers might prioritize differently inflation relative to inclusion, we conclude by quantifying the inflation-inclusion trade-off implied by various monetary policy rules. |
| JEL: | E10 E30 E5 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33488 |
| By: | Mumtaz, Haroon; Ruch, Franz Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies two types of policy uncertainty measures–government spending and real interest rates–and their impact on macroeconomic activity in 54 advanced, emerging, and developing economies. Policy uncertainty is defined as the inability to predict policy moves, that is, the conditional volatility of policy shocks. This is achieved in a panel vector autoregression model which allows, but does not require, the stochastic volatility of identified shocks to have direct and dynamic effects on macroeconomic outcomes. It shows that fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty are damaging to economic activity and act like negative supply shocks: raising prices while lowering output, investment and consumption. A one standard deviation government spending uncertainty shock decreases real gross domestic product (GDP) by a cumulative 1.0 percentage point and marginally increases inflation after two years. A one standard deviation real interest rate uncertainty shock lowers real GDP by a cumulative 1.3 percentage points after two years but raises inflation by 0.5 percentage point. |
| Date: | 2023–09–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10564 |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | Asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables are caused by some important effects, such as income effect, uncertainty effect, precautionary saving effect, irreversible investment and reallocation effects. Due to these effects, output and prices respond diferently to oil price increases and decreases. This asymmetry hypothesis has been empirically tested by many economists. This paper surveys recent empirical studies on the asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on economic activity and inflation in Asia. The empirical findings in Asian economies shows that the responses of output growth oil price shocks in Japan and South Korea tend to be asymmetric while the responses of inflation seem to be symmetric. For China, the largest oil-importing in Asia, the empirical results show that asymmetry is increasingly discovered. The results of the responses of inflation to oil price shocks in China do not favor the asymmetry hypothesis. The findings in the ASEAN5 economies are likely to support the symmetry hypothesis. In South Asian economies, only few studies favor the asymmetry hypothesis. Because empirical results for other Asian countries are not widely investigated, it is too early to draw some conclusions. One important finding is that Asian oil-exporting countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, might not escape the adverse impacts of oil price shocks on output growth. Since output and inflation can be unfavorably affected by oil price shocks, some researchers will recommend accommodative monetary policy along with exchange rate policy to stabilize the responses of output and prices when oil price tends to increase. |
| Keywords: | Oil price shocks, output growth, inflation, asymmetric and symmetric impacts, Asian economies |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123664 |
| By: | Baumann, Michael Heinrich; Janischewski, Anja |
| Abstract: | Financial bubbles and crashes have repeatedly caused economic turmoil notably but not only during the 2008 financial crisis. However, both in the popular press as well as scientific publications, the meaning of bubble is sometimes unspecified. Due to the multitude of bubble definitions, we conduct a systematic review with the following questions: What definitions of asset price bubbles exist in the literature? Which definitions are used in which disciplines and how frequently? We develop a system of definition categories and categorize a total of 122 papers from eleven research areas. Our results show that although one definition is indeed prevalent in the literature, the overall definition landscape is not uniform. Next to the mostly used definition as deviation from a present value of expected future cash flows, we identify several other definitions, which rely on price properties or other specifications of a fundamental value. This research contributes by shedding light on the possible variations in which bubbles are defined and operationalized. |
| Keywords: | asset price bubble; fad; financial crisis; local martingale; fundamental analysis |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G14 G18 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123676 |
| By: | Chen, Xiaoguang; Huang, Hanwei; Ju, Jiandong; Sun, Ruoyan; Zhang, Jialiang |
| Abstract: | We study infectious diseases in a spatial epidemiology model with forward-looking individuals who weigh disease environments against economic opportunities when moving across regions. This endogenous mobility allows regions to share risk and health resources, resulting in positive epidemiological externalities for regions with high R0s. We develop the Normalized Hat Algebra to analyze disease and mobility dynamics. Applying our model to US data, we find that cross-state mobility controls that hinder risk and resource sharing increase COVID-19 deaths and decrease social welfare. Conversely, by enabling "self-containment" and "self-healing, " endogenous mobility reduces COVID-19 infections by 27.6% and deaths by 22.1%. |
| Keywords: | sird model; spatial economy; endogenous mobility; basic reproduction number; normalized hat algebra; containment policies; Covid-19; coronavirus |
| JEL: | C61 D91 I12 I18 J61 R13 |
| Date: | 2024–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126830 |
| By: | Joel Kariel; Anthony Savagar |
| Abstract: | We present empirical evidence on the relationship between demand shocks and price changes, conditional on returns to scale. We find that in industries with decreasing returns to scale, demand increases (which raise costs) correspond to price increases. Whereas, in industries with increasing returns to scale, demand increases (which lower costs) correspond to stable prices. We interpret the results with a theory of imperfect competition and returns to scale. For prices to remain stable following a cost decrease, markups necessarily rise. For prices to increase as cost increases, it is not necessary for markups to change but does not preclude their role. From a macroeconomic perspective, our results imply that inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of monetary policy depend on market structures. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.05898 |
| By: | Monea, Nino C. |
| Abstract: | Every state has a Police Officer Standards and Training (POST) body responsible for credentialling law enforcement, and usually, decertifying them for misconduct. Oregon and Kansas are outliers in that they share disciplinary decisions online. This Article examines 400 decisions from the two states—every decision available as far back as records go through the end of 2022—to analyze how these agencies operate in practice. It finds that, much like other police oversight bodies, these POSTs often fail to hold officers to account or act transparently. Even so, state POSTs have an important role to play in protecting the public and maintaining high standards, and policy recommendations are made based on the review of these cases. Among them: greater transparency, better data collection, and strengthening POSTs. |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:39nxk_v1 |
| By: | Markhof, Yannick Valentin; Wollburg, Philip Randolph; Zezza, Alberto |
| Abstract: | Routine immunization coverage estimated in surveys often substantially differs from figures reported in administrative records, presenting a dilemma for researchers and policy makers. Using high-frequency phone surveys and administrative records from government sources in 36 low- and middle-income countries, this paper shows that such misalignment has also been common in the case of COVID-19. Across the sample, survey estimates exceed administrative figures by 47 percent on average, at times suggesting markedly different policy conclusions depending on the data source consulted. This pattern is particularly stark and consistent in Sub-Saharan Africa. To investigate the sources of this discrepancy, the paper presents results from six methodological experiments that vary survey design choices and documents their effect on estimated COVID-19 vaccine coverage. The results show that design choices matter, in particular the selection of respondents to be interviewed. However, phone survey estimates prove remarkably robust to several commonly claimed biases. After accounting for observed errors of representation and measurement in the survey data, there remains a nonnegligible, unexplained residual gap with administrative records. The paper provides indicative evidence of flaws and weaknesses in administrative data recording and reporting that affect reported vaccination rates and could contribute to this gap. The findings matter for past research on COVID-19 vaccination, future immunization efforts, and the design of robust data production systems on health topics. |
| Date: | 2023–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10443 |
| By: | Adhikari, Samik; Seetahul, Suneha |
| Abstract: | This paper takes stock of the insights and learnings from a COVID-19 emergency cash transfer program that was administered to vulnerable informal sector workers in Sierra Leone. It starts by reviewing relevant examples of cash transfer programs that were instituted in response to the COVID-19 crisis. It then describes the context, intervention, and data of the emergency cash transfer program, before presenting a quasi-experimental analysis of the emergency cash transfer’s potential impacts on various measures of economic security and subjective well-being of households with urban informal sector workers. The analysis is conducted by matching administrative data to survey data and using program eligibility criteria and inverse probability weights to identify the short- and medium-term relationship between a one-off US$135 cash transfer and various labor market, food security, human capital, and subjective well-being outcomes for recipient and nonrecipient households of the emergency cash transfer. The analysis finds a positive potential impact of the transfer and the number of hours worked as well as employment in the medium term. It also finds that program beneficiaries report higher chances of their main income increasing or staying the same compared to nonbeneficiaries. The positive correlation between the transfer and income disappears over the medium term, perhaps suggesting that one-off transfers work best to cushion vulnerable self-employed households and informal wage workers in the short term but do not impact medium-term employment or income. |
| Date: | 2023–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10395 |
| By: | Wilkinson, Thomas David; Wang, Mengxiao; Friedman, Jed; Prestidge, Marelize |
| Abstract: | Numerous digital health interventions have been piloted in response to the health care challenges low- and middle-income countries face. Because the opportunity cost of investing in digital health interventions can be large, countries must make choices about which interventions to scale up. To make good investment decisions about digital health interventions, there is a need to define and establish their value, and to use economic evaluation to make informed decisions, however DHIs present methodological challenges for economic evaluation. To address these challenges, this paper first creates a ‘gap map’ of digital health intervention evidence which reveals a dearth of economic evaluation evidence about digital health interventions; this lack can limit decisions on policy, programming, and appropriate scale-up of digital health interventions. To advance work in this field, this paper then develops an economic evaluation framework that can be used when determining the economic value of digital health interventions. Such a standardized approach, alongside guidance to assist the conduct and use of economic evidence, can improve decision making and investments in DHI under constrained health budgets. The resulting digital health intervention economic evaluation framework consists of 5 steps: (1) determine the context, (2) determine the intervention type, (3) establish the level of complexity, (4) set the analytic principles, and (5) represent the value proposition. Users of the framework should attempt to adhere to its steps and principles, but where this is not feasible or appropriate, they should provide justification for the methodological choice. The framework should facilitate methodological transparency, thereby improving the overall usefulness of economic evaluations of digital health interventions. |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10407 |
| By: | Brooks, Weston |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the interplay between environmental challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic, and economic dynamics across the American continent, utilizing the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework to explain how economic growth interacts with environmental degradation amid unprecedented market volatility. By synthesizing empirical research from Latin and North America, diverse responses in environmental policies and economic performance are noticed, highlighting shifts in sustainable investments and disruptions in food supply chains. The analysis underscores the critical need for coordinated, data-driven policy efforts that align short-term recovery measures with long-term environmental sustainability in a post-pandemic landscape. |
| Keywords: | Covid; Enviroment; Financial; Economic growth; data-driven |
| JEL: | E61 G29 H0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123708 |
| By: | de Castro, Luciano; Frischtak, Claudio R.; Rodrigues, Arthur |
| Abstract: | Most developing economies rely on foreign capital to finance their infrastructure needs. These projects are usually structured as long-term (25–35 years) franchises that pay in local currency. If investors evaluate their returns in terms of foreign currency, exchange rate volatility introduces risk that may reduce the level of investment below what would be socially optimal. This paper proposes a mechanism with very general features that hedges exchange rate fluctuation by adjusting the concession period. Such mechanism does not imply additional costs to the government and could be offered as a zero-cost option to lenders and investors exposed to currency fluctuations. This general mechanism is illustrated with three alternative specifications and data from a 25-year highway franchise is used to simulate how they would play out in eight different countries that exhibit diverse exchange rate trajectories. |
| Date: | 2023–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10568 |
| By: | Fussell, Cathy |
| Abstract: | Governments and businesses are under pressure to realise the value of data. However, value realisation is often fraught, and it is possible to get it scandalously wrong. It is difficult to realise value unless you know what it looks like, and our current theories of value are an inadequate guide. The mechanistic Newtonian-inspired logic that often informs thinking about value creation is counterproductive in complex problem spaces typical of social domains. This logic often leads to harmful practices that erode reputations and trust. However, we do not yet know how to govern complexity to create collective value. To address this problem, I propose a combined theory of value and power underpinned by complexity theory. That is, value is the enhanced capacity to act (i.e. power) we seek from all social arrangements. I rework the power-to, -over, and -with trichotomy to argue that the value created in social assemblages can be hoarded (power-over) or shared (power with). I pose the questions ‘what does a power-with look like?’ and ‘why should we choose it?’ I propose that systemic power with (i.e. governing-with) tends to look like a collective experiment in which data is used as feedback, rather than to judge and control. As all participants obtain value, virtuous cycles of value creation ensue. Governing with is proposed as normatively superior to governing-over for producing long-term collective value and flourishing as the contributing capacities of all are enhanced. We cannot effectively combat domination (i.e. power-over) unless we can clearly articulate an alternative. This paper proposes power-with and governing-with as domination’s foil. |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:u7ng3_v1 |
| By: | Paul, Saumik; Raju, Dhushyanth |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of a local sectoral productivity shock on subnational structural transformation. The analysis is based on regional input-output tables constructed for 2004 and 2013 and available censuses of firms in 2003 and 2013 for Ghana. Based on the data, the analysis confirms the occurrence of a mining productivity shock. Between 2004 and 2013, mining grew dramatically as a share of gross domestic product. The mining shock occurred primarily in the south of Ghana with much larger increases in mining’s share in regional output, the number of mining firms, and mining employment than in the north of the country. The findings show that the mining productivity shock led to growing regional (north-south) differences in intersectoral linkages, with greater intermediate use of mining output and a larger sectoral total factor productivity ratio between mining and manufacturing in the south than in the north. Informed by international evidence of strong intersectoral linkages between mining and heavy manufacturing industries, the paper examines the performance of heavy manufacturing in response to the mining productivity shock. The elasticity of heavy manufacturing to mining employment growth is 50 percent larger in the south than in the north, generated by an increase in both average firm employment and the entry of new firms. These north-south differences are interpreted as possibly due to weak interregional production linkages. |
| Date: | 2023–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10446 |
| By: | Cortina Lorente, Juan Jose; Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Xiao, Jasmine |
| Abstract: | The internationalization of China’s equity markets started in the early 2000s but accelerated after 2012, when Chinese firms’ shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen gradually became available to international investors. This paper documents the effects of the post-2012 internationalization events by comparing the evolution of equity financing and investment activities for (i) domestic listed firms relative to firms that already had access to international investors and (ii) domestic listed firms that were directly connected to international markets relative to those that were not. The paper shows significant increases in financial and investment activities for domestic listed firms and connected firms, with sizable aggregate effects. The evidence also suggests that the rise in firms’ equity issuances was primarily and initially financed by domestic investors. Foreign ownership of Chinese firms increased once the locally issued shares became part of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index in 2018. |
| Date: | 2023–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10513 |
| By: | Dasgupta, Susmita; Lall, Somik V.; Wheeler, David |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies high-priority areas for methane emissions reduction and estimates recent emissions changes in those areas using atmospheric concentration data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P satellite platform. The modeling approach is illustrated with three case studies: landfills in Spain (Madrid), irrigated rice production in India (Karnal district, Haryana state), and oil production in Iraq (Al Amarah district, Maysan governorate). For each case, the paper estimates two change models by fixed effects: the monthly trend in methane concentration from January 2019 to November 2022, and the difference between mean concentration in 2022 and the previous three years. The paper estimates the change models for 775 high-priority areas and finds that cases with decreasing methane emissions are outnumbered four to one by cases with increasing emissions. The paper also analyzes trends in high-priority areas for seven major methane source sectors (agricultural soils, livestock, gas, oil, coal, landfills, and wastewater) and finds only two where emissions decreases outnumber increases (gas and oil). Among World Bank income groups, decreases outnumber increases in high-income economies but increases are hugely dominant in the other three groups. The paper concludes with a presentation of summary emissions trend reports for all 775 high-priority areas, with accompanying maps and an Excel file. As satellite-based monitoring becomes more widely employed, such reports will provide a useful template for judging further p rogress toward fulfillment of the Global Methane Pledge. |
| Date: | 2023–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10391 |
| By: | Premkumar, Deepak (Public Policy Institute of California); Lofstrom, Magnus (Public Policy Institute of California); Hayes, Joseph (Public Policy Institute of California); Martin, Brandon (Public Policy Institute of California); Cremin, Sean (Public Policy Institute of California) |
| Abstract: | Racial disparities within the criminal justice system continue to be a pressing issue in the U.S. In this paper, we analyze data for almost four million stops by California's fifteen largest law enforcement agencies in 2019, examining the extent to which people of color experience searches, enforcement, intrusiveness, and use of force differently from white people. Black Californians are more likely to be searched than white Californians, but searches of Black civilians reveal less contraband and evidence. Black people are overrepresented in stops not leading to enforcement as well as in stops leading to an arrest. While differences in location and context for the stop significantly contribute to racial disparities, notable inequities remain after accounting for such factors. These disparities are concentrated in traffic stops. A notable proportion of which lead to no enforcement or discovery—suggesting that gains in efficiency and equity are possible. Through a "veil of darkness" analysis, we find evidence that racial bias may be a contributing factor to disparities in traffic stops for Black and Latino drivers. These findings suggest that traffic stops for non-moving violations deserve consideration for alternative enforcement strategies. |
| Keywords: | policing, racial disparities, racial bias, stops, searches, enforcement |
| JEL: | J15 K42 K14 H41 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17729 |
| By: | David Lee Kuo Chuen; Yang Li; Weibiao Xu; Willy Zhao |
| Abstract: | Proponents of blockchains believe that this technology will revolutionize e-commerce. To evaluate this belief, we invite several groups of students to transact on a decentralized peer-to-peer marketplace built on the platform provided by Origin Protocol Inc., and then we conduct a survey about their experience of usage. Based on our survey results, we find that 33% of respondents play tricks on others, which implies that this undesirable result may hinder the widespread adoption of blockchain technologies. We also attempt to propose a conceptual mechanism to mitigate fraudulent behaviors. In the event of disputation, a trusted authority is entitled to the right to downgrade the fraudulent side's credit record, which is stored by a permissioned blockchain accessed only by the authority. Such a punishment can effectively decrease agents' incentives to sell counterfeits and leave fake ratings. In sum, we must distinguish what we proposed blockchains will do and what blockchains can do before enabling this technology in e-commerce. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.09095 |
| By: | Karner, Alex; Pereira, Rafael H. M.; Farber, Steven |
| Abstract: | Transportation systems play a pivotal role in facilitating access to out-of-home activities, enabling participation in various aspects of social life. But because of budgetary and physical limitations, they cannot provide equal access everywhere; inevitably, some locations will be better served than others. This realization gives rise to two fundamental concerns in transportation equity research and practice: 1) accessibility inequality and 2) accessibility poverty. Accessibility inequalities may rise to the level of injustice when some socioeconomic groups systematically have lower access to opportunities than others. Accessibility poverty occurs when people are unable to meet their daily needs and live a dignified, fulfilling life because of a lack of access to essential services and opportunities. In this paper, we review two of the most widely used approaches for evaluating transport justice concerns related to accessibility inequality and accessibility poverty: Gini coefficients/Lorenz curves and needs-gap/transit desert approaches, respectively. We discuss how their theoretical underpinnings are inconsistent with egalitarian and sufficientarian concerns in transport justice and show how the underlying assumptions of these methods and their applications found in the transportation equity literature embody many previously unacknowledged limitations that severely limit their utility. We substantiate these concerns by analysing the equity impacts of Covid-19-related service cuts undertaken in Washington, D.C. during 2020. The paper also discusses how alternative methods for measuring transportation equity both better comport with the known impacts of such changes and are consistent with underlying moral concerns. |
| Date: | 2023–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y246u_v1 |
| By: | Bilal Bourkha (Université Mohammed Premier [Oujda] = Université Mohammed Ier) |
| Abstract: | CHAPITRE 1 La vision stratégique de la distribution Section 1 L'évolution de la distribution et ses fonctions Vers une distribution moderne Évolutions démographiques Mentalités des consommateurs et le commerce Un environnement hyperconcurrentiel Une culture de l'innovation Innovations technologiques. Une seule entreprise peut-elle tout faire ? Produire puis chercher un distributeur Produire et distribuer Produire puis chercher un grossiste pour distribuer à des distributeurs Vers une stratégie de désintégration verticale Les fonctions de la distribution Fonction traditionnelle Fonctions contemporaines (Fonction transactionnelle ; Fonction relationnelle ; Fonction expérientielle) Section 2 La distribution et l'avantage concurrentiel, quelle relation ? Ecoles de pensée et distribution Chaîne de valeur – M. Porter L'école des interactions concurrentielles (Chen, Smith, Grimm, Young, Simon, Bensebaa, Roy…) Business Model (Demil et al., 2010) Resource Based View (RBV) Actor-Network Theory (Callon et Law, 1980) Agency Theory (JENSEN ET MECKLING, 1970) Transaction Cost Theory (Coose et Willimason) Neo-Institutional Theory (Powell et Dimaggio, 1983) Distribution, un facteur de différenciation Distribution, un critère de segmentation marketing CHAPITRE 2 Les distributeurs et les canaux de distribution Section 1 Les entreprises de distribution Commerçant Vs Distributeur Un intermédiaire ? Mais pourquoi faire Efficacité dans le processus d'échange (Réduit le nombre de contacts) Fonction d'assembler et de trier Facilite le processus de recherche par les consommateurs. Les distributeurs BtoC Vente en magasin (traditionnelle & moderne) Vente hors magasin Les distributeur BtoB Section 2 La gestion des canaux de distribution Canal de distribution : Définition et typologie Circuit ultracourt de distribution Circuit court de distribution Circuit long de distribution Choix d'un circuit Facteurs internes (Capacités de l'entreprise, Nature du produit , Le coût des circuits) Facteurs externes (Concurrents, Distributeurs, Clientèle, Réglementation) Multi canal Vs Cross Canal La gestion des intermédiaires Sélection Évaluation Stimulation Le développement de relations de partenariat Efficient Consumer Response Le Trade marketing CHAPITRE 3 Management stratégique de la distribution Section 1 Les stratégies de la distribution Stratégie de distribution : définition et typologie Intensive Sélective Exclusive Stratégie de distribution vs nature du produit Section 2 L'innovation dans la distribution Typologie et Définition Innover en Supply Chain pour devenir leader L'innovation de concept de vente L'innovation organisationnelle Innovation relationnelle Bernardo Trujillo et GMS Innovation dans le monde de distribution Drive Cybermarché Magasin éphémère (pop-up store) Les lockers Distribution automatique |
| Keywords: | Techniques de distribution, Circuit de distribution, canal de distribution, Stratégie de distribution, Grande distribution, Marque de distributeur MDD, Fonction de distribution, Bourkha, Innovation de distribution, Cross canal, Omnicanal, Franchise |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04932788 |
| By: | Ospino Hernandez, Carlos Gustavo; Rigolini, Iamele P.; Coll-Black, Sarah; Oviedo Silva, Ana Maria |
| Abstract: | The literature on shock-responsive social protection focuses on operational features that improve the speed and reach of the response, but little is known about the optimal design of emergency social protection responses in terms of which programs to use, information about the people affected, and the extent of their losses. This paper studies optimal social protection responses to shocks, using microsimulations of different social assistance responses in Albania, Moldova, and North Macedonia. The paper shows that optimal design depends not only on the magnitude of the shock, but also on how the shock affects welfare rankings and on the parameters of the existing social assistance system, including the generosity of the schemes and how well they cover the poor. For given budgets, a universal transfer remains a suboptimal response. However, the extent to which existing programs should be expanded, as designed, to additional beneficiaries depends on the type of shock. When a shock tends to affect households homogeneously, increasing generosity and expanding the existing targeted social assistance program using established welfare metrics to assess eligibility is an effective response. When shocks affect households heterogeneously and bring some of them into extreme poverty, then pre-shock welfare indicators carry little information and policy makers should provide support through a new program or modified eligibility criteria, according to information on who suffered the shock. This analysis points to the importance of planning in advance for future crises and, within this, considering the optimal design of emergency social protection responses. |
| Date: | 2023–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10461 |
| By: | Balogun, Emmanuel Dele |
| Abstract: | This study examines the immediate consequences of gasoline subsidy removal in Nigeria, focusing on economic and social outcomes. Utilizing monthly data from the 2000 to 2024 subsidy removals, the study analyzes inflation trends, transportation costs, public sentiment, and fiscal adjustments. It also estimated via econometrics model, the short-term partial effects of gasoline price subsidy removal on transportation costs and aggregate consumer prices. Findings reveal significant inflationary pressures, social unrest, and disproportionate impacts on low-income households, alongside modest fiscal gains. The study underscores the need for compensatory measures to mitigate short-term shocks. The conclusion is that the removal of gasoline subsidies in Nigeria is a double-edged sword with significant short-term implications. While it offers potential benefits such as reduced fiscal burden, improved government finances, and long-term economic reforms, it also poses immediate challenges, including increased inflation, higher transportation costs, and potential social unrest. The success of this policy will depend on the government’s ability to manage the transition effectively, implement complementary measures to cushion the impact on the populace, and ensure that the long-term benefits outweigh the short-term pains |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics; Monetary policy analysis |
| JEL: | E3 |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123659 |
| By: | Bryson, Alex (University College London); Forth, John (City St George's, University of London); Green, Francis (Institute of Education, University of London) |
| Abstract: | Using linked employer-employee data from the British Workplace Employment Relations Survey we examine how much of the variation in job quality is accounted for by establishment-level variation, and the relative importance of the establishment compared with occupation and employee characteristics. We do so for pay, six dimensions of non-pay job quality and overall job quality. We show that the establishment is the dominant explanatory factor for non-pay job quality, and as important as occupation in accounting for pay. Where you work accounts for between 38% and 76% of the explained variance in job quality, depending on the dimension. We also find that establishments which are 'good' on one dimension of non-pay job quality are 'good' on others. When we relate the estimated establishment effects (after allowing for the effects of occupation and of employee characteristics) to observed establishment characteristics, we find that non-pay job quality is greater in smaller establishments. |
| Keywords: | job quality, decomposition, establishment |
| JEL: | J31 J32 M50 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17724 |
| By: | Jackson, Robert; Rainey, Carlisle |
| Abstract: | Many existing reports and studies based on a single cross-section of survey data indicate that Millennials and Generation Z are more liberal than preceding generations. However, purely cross-sectional data are unable to differentiate between age effects, period effects, and generation or cohort effects. Pooling 23 General Social Surveys (GSS) cross-sections across the years 1983-2021, we apply contemporary age-period-cohort (APC) modeling techniques to differentiate these effects as they pertain to both symbolic ideology and operational economic ideology. We find greater support for age effects and period (i.e., survey year) effects than generation effects, calling into question the conventional wisdom on the liberalism of these recent generations. Our evidence is more consistent with an aging process in which Americans, regardless of generation, become more symbolically and economically conservative across their life course. Our results also reinforce doubts about the conventional, contemporary classification scheme for generations in the United States. |
| Date: | 2023–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ck7de_v1 |
| By: | Veale, Michael (University College London) |
| Abstract: | August 2023 pre-print. To appear in: Maria Ioannidou, and Despoina Mantzari (eds.) Research Handbook on Competition Law and Data Privacy (Edward Elgar, forthcoming). Data has been seen as central to understanding privacy, informational power, and increasingly, digital-era competition law. Data is not unimportant, but it is misunderstood. I highlight several assumptions in need of challenge. Firstly, that data protection is distinct from privacy, and has a broader role correcting digitally-exacerbated power asymmetries. Secondly, contrary to economic received wisdom, data is not fully non-rivalrous due to the infrastructural implications of its integration. Thirdly, data can be less important than capacity for experimentation and intervention, which is not simple to ‘open up’. Lastly, data is increasingly unimportant due to large firms’ investments in confidential computing technologies, facilitating distributed analysis, learning, and even microtargeting. In the right conditions, data can be economically substituted for the ability to orchestrate a protocol — an infrastructural capacity unrecognised sufficiently in competition or other fields. This substitutability also requires the ability to force users to adhere to a protocol, bringing further privacy concerns. In sum, privacy, data protection and power need to be considered more closely entwined than at present, and all fields need to consider the infrastructural dimensions of large platforms, more than focussing on the data they accumulate. |
| Date: | 2023–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z8tw6_v1 |
| By: | Krafft, Caroline Gould; Nikaein Towfighian, Samira; Raikes, Abbie; Mojgani, Rebecca Sayre |
| Abstract: | Quality assurance systems have been implemented or are under development in a number of low- and middle-income countries in an effort to observe the quality of education and deploy targeted measures to improve quality. This paper shares lessons learned on the potential ability of quality assurance systems to observe quality and inform action, drawing on data from a pre-primary quality assurance system in the Arab Republic of Egypt. A nationally representative study of kindergarten classrooms was conducted, using a detailed diagnostic research tool administered by independent enumerators from a data collection firm. A subsample of these kindergarten classrooms was randomly assigned to also be observed through a short quality assurance system tool, half of them by independent enumerators, and the other half by the existing cadre of government kindergarten supervisors. The quality assurance system tool was developed for scale and financial sustainability; thus, it could be administered in roughly one-third of the time of the diagnostic tool, at one-third of the cost. Overall, the results illustrate that at the national level, the quality assurance system tool can identify important areas for improvement, and thus inform broad policy actions. Further, the results are consistent whether an independent data collection firm or a government kindergarten supervisor acted as enumerator, suggesting that quality assurance system data collection efforts can be embedded within ministries of education and implemented in a regular and sustainable manner. At the school and teacher level, however, there were several areas where the quality assurance system data were inconsistent with the diagnostic data. This underscores how quality assurance systems are best used as a formative system, a starting point for quality enhancement, and not as a summative system that directly targets, punishes, or rewards specific schools. |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10482 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica |
| Abstract: | Countries across Eastern Europe and Central Asia are in their third decade of independence. What impact does this have on the skills premium and does accession to the European Union have an impact on the returns to education The returns to education in 28 transition and 20 non-transition countries in Europe and Central Asia are analyzed using panel data analysis and difference-in-difference methods to estimate the impact of transition and EU accession. It is found that the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy increases the returns to schooling in post-socialist countries positively and significantly, especially through the EU accession channel. |
| Date: | 2023–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10496 |
| By: | Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | L'arrêt International Skating Union s'inscrit dans l'ensemble des arrêts rendus par la Cour de Justice sur le fonctionnement des fédérations sportives. Il se caractérise à la fois par une précision des conditions dans lesquelles leurs règles de fonctionnement peuvent être sanctionnées comme des restrictions de concurrence par objet et par une contribution à une approche renouvelée du droit de la concurrence de l'Union quant aux obligations des firmes en position de contrôleur d'accès au marché. |
| Keywords: | Droit de la concurrence, Fédérations sportives, Abus d'éviction, Contrôleur d'accès |
| Date: | 2025–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04963855 |
| By: | Vagliasindi, Maria |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has been posing unprecedented challenges for the transport sector. Urban travel has declined all over the world, but not uniformly for all modes; public transportation has taken the hardest blow. As a result, there has been a widespread reduction in public transport ridership: according to recent estimates, passenger numbers in cities around the world have been at the peak of the pandemic down 70 to 90 percent. This paper examines the short-run economic impact of the pandemic, as well as the generic and sector-specific restrictions that were adopted to control the outbreak of the pandemic, based on a rich database tracking on a daily basis public transport usage and traffic congestion. The analysis confirms the significant impact of sector-specific restrictions and broader lockdown measures in terms of reduction in urban mobility and congestion. The analysis finds that the spread of the disease itself had an economic impact distinct from that of the lockdown measures. There are also different results on the magnitude of impact of cross-sectoral vis-à-vis sectoral restrictions on urban mobility and congestion. Whereas the magnitude of the spread of the disease is higher than the overall stringency of the lockdown, the impact of restrictions of public transit has been much greater than the spread of the disease and acts indirectly as a disincentive to move on the road. More effective safety measures, such as those related to the use of facial covering, are associated with higher use of public transport and an increase in the likelihood of low congestion. There is no evidence of intermodal competition between public transportation and road transport. In particular, the expansion of car registration has not led to a decrease in public transport mobility, but it is significantly associated with an increase in traffic congestion, particularly in mega-cities. |
| Date: | 2023–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10351 |
| By: | Huberts, N.F.D. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Wen, Xingang (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Dawid, Herbert; Huisman, Kuno (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Kort, Peter M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:25f53a76-94e0-4028-a8a5-6e0e226c6658 |
| By: | Gassmann, Franziska; Gentilini, Ugo; Morais, Julieta; Nunnenmacher, Conrad; Okamura, Yuko; Bordon, Giulio; Valleriani, Giorgia |
| Abstract: | The multiplier effects of cash transfers are receiving renewed attention globally. The existence of multipliers — or the generation of additional dollars for every one dollar injected as cash transfers — illuminates new aspects of the impacts of social assistance and holds the potential to redefine how “fiscal sustainability” is generally interpreted. However, multipliers also attract questions: are multipliers real and tangible How are multipliers estimated What method might be more suitable than others in different contexts What does the evidence reveal about those effects This paper briefly summarizes emerging findings from existing literature on low- and middle-income countries, including a total of 23 studies. The paper discusses the main estimation methods, such as social accounting matrix and econometric techniques; presents results on multipliers across studies; and draws lessons for future research and practice. |
| Date: | 2023–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10529 |
| By: | Hanrieder, Tine; Janauschek, Leon |
| Abstract: | International institutions increasingly promote ‘ethical recruitment’ as a standard for health worker migration from poor to rich countries. We analyze how this notion is interpreted in a country considered to be an exemplary, ‘ethical’ recruiter of international nurses. In Germany, international nurse recruitment initiatives are proliferating, and programs such as the public Triple Win scheme and a private-sector voluntary fair-ness certificate promise gains to all participating actors. We find that ‘ethical recruitment’ is a regime of largely voluntary protection of and care for migrant workers, which legitimizes the extraction of health workers from the Global South but hides underlying structural inequalities between countries and workers. Gains for sending countries are postulated, yet de facto merely assumed to happen through remittances, and develop-mental demands by sending countries remain unaddressed despite talk about circular migration and support for health systems. In short, ‘ethics’ facilitates a regime of liberal health worker extractivism: This regime recognizes individual rights (however imperfectly) but disregards developmental and social rights, and it limits state intervention to market facilitation and soft regulation. We draw on primary sources including documents retrieved through freedom of information requests, and over thirty interviews with recruiters, regulators, employers, unionists, and civil society experts. |
| Keywords: | brain drain; care extractivism; global health; global governance; healthcare; human rights; liberal international order; migration; transnational labor market |
| JEL: | J1 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126903 |
| By: | Boeing, Philipp; Peters, Bettina |
| Abstract: | We investigate the misuse of R&D subsidies and evaluate its consequences for policy effectiveness. Developing a theoretical framework and using Chinese firm-level data for 2001-2011, we identify that 42% of grantees misappropriated R&D subsidies for non-R&D purposes, accounting for 53% of total R&D subsidies. Misuse leads to a substantial loss in the causal impact of R&D subsidies, as measured by the difference between the intention-to-treat and complier average causal effect. R&D expenditures could have been stimulated beyond the subsidy amount (additionality), but misuse (noncompliance) resulted in medium-level partial crowding out, reducing the effectiveness of China’s R&D policy by more than half. |
| Keywords: | R&D subsidies, policy evaluation, misuse, China |
| JEL: | O31 O38 C21 H21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312195 |
| By: | Luppi, Francesca; Migheli, Matteo; Pronzato, Chiara |
| Abstract: | European divorce rates have been on the rise since the 1970s. At the same time, as more couples opt for cohabitation over marriage, there has been an increase in separations among cohabiting partners. Nearly 50% of separated individuals form new relationships within five years. These trends may have implications for fertility research. Are re-partnered mothers more likely to continue bearing children than never-separated mothers? Does quick re-partnering lead to the recovery of births “lost” due to separation? To answer these questions, we use longitudinal data from 2004 to 2018 for 32 European countries. We find that mothers in higher order unions are - on average – more likely to have one more child than those who already have children with their current partner. The former seem to be less burdened by already having children and less concerned about family income. Our data show that if separation occurs at a relatively young age and re-partnering occurs relatively quickly, then births lost to union dissolution can be recovered. |
| Date: | 2023–05–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ejt8u_v1 |
| By: | liu, zhouyan |
| Abstract: | Authoritarian governments monitoring citizens and manipulating public opinion is a major source of human rights violations and a critical threat to democracies worldwide. Past policy responses have faced insurmountable challenges, as domestic policies of authoritarian countries are difficult to influence. Regulation of the academic community is an under-recognized step toward addressing this issue. Authoritarian governments ultimately rely on their own scientists to develop various technologies for political oppression. However, scientists themselves have dual identities, being subject to authoritarian governments and being part of the international academic community, with values that are often more aligned with those of the international academic community. They primarily serve their governments for career advancement purposes. If the international academic community can provide alternative incentives, we may be able to attract academic professionals to the side of protecting human rights and weakening the political control of authoritarian countries. This report, through case studies and quantitative analysis of all papers published in Chinese on “public opinion, ” finds that as many as one quarter of the studies help the Chinese government more strictly monitor and manipulate public opinion, likely driven by the motive of career advancement. A review of the codes of conduct of major academic organizations, such as The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), reveals no mention of surveillance and manipulation of public opinion, except in Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) guidelines, indicating significant regulatory gaps. This neglect stands in stark contrast to voluminous writing and agreements on ethical issues along other research frontiers, such as biomedicine or even other areas of artificial intelligence. The report proposes three policy recommendations for international academic organizations: 1. Incorporate Surveillance and Public Opinion Manipulation Issues into Existing Code of Ethics and Publication Review Process. 2. Establish and promote competitive incentive policies for elite scientists from authoritarian countries to encourage their engagement in research that promotes freedom of expression in public opinion. 3. Encourage international academic institutions to collaborate with international organizations, human rights groups, and media outlets to raise awareness about the issue of digital surveillance, public opinion research, and their impact on privacy and human rights. The report emphasizes the importance of adopting a “Regulatory Collaboration” principle, which is to say, a comprehensive and balanced approach to addressing the challenges associated with international research collaborations, as opposed to an “Exclusionary Stance, ” or the exclusion of scientists from authoritarian countries from participating in international academic exchange activities. By adhering to this principle, we can avoid excessive influence of xenophobic political forces and agendas on academia (such as the Trump-era China Initiative, which reduced research productivity), and maintain the principles of academic freedom, anti-discrimination, and free international academic exchange and cooperation to effectively and sustainably protect the academic community and enable global scientific research to better serve human welfare. |
| Date: | 2023–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qs3fu_v1 |
| By: | Hari P. Krishnan; Stephan Sturm |
| Abstract: | Signature methods have been widely and effectively used as a tool for feature extraction in statistical learning methods, notably in mathematical finance. They lack, however, interpretability: in the general case, it is unclear why signatures actually work. The present article aims to address this issue directly, by introducing and developing the concept of signature perturbations. In particular, we construct a regular perturbation of the signature of the term structure of log prices for various commodities, in terms of the convenience yield. Our perturbation expansion and rigorous convergence estimates help explain the success of signature-based classification of commodities markets according to their term structure, with the volatility of the convenience yield as the major discriminant. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.00603 |
| By: | Vahedi, Meisam; Akhtar, Iqbal |
| Abstract: | Islamic feminism in Iran is defined as the radical rethinking of religious and sacred texts from a feminist perspective. This research aims to show how Islamic feminism developed in Iran and discuss the philosophical and epistemological foundations of different discourses influencing that movement. This study utilizes documentary research methods. It shows that central to the development of Islamic feminism is the development of the reformist movement in Iran. Reformists believe that employing justice in Islamic laws requires a novel hermeneutic interpretation of sacred texts that account for absolute equality in men’s and women’s rights. However, traditional and neo-traditional jurists present different interpretations of the notion of justice regarding gender relations. They believe that since men and women have existential and inborn differences, they hold separate rights and duties, especially regarding their social and family roles. Accordingly, two kinds of law are needed to regulate their lives. Using reformist theories, Muslim feminists in Iran have challenged the traditional interpretation of sacred texts and called for women’s rights as equal to men’s in the Islamic constitution. |
| Date: | 2023–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6rycu_v1 |