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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Eickmeier, Sandra; Quast, Josefine; Schüler, Yves |
| Abstract: | We examine how the occurrence of natural disasters impact the US economy and financial markets using monthly data since 2000. Our analysis reveals large sustained adverse effects of disasters on overall economic activity, with significant implications across various sectors including labor, production, consumption, investment, and housing. Our findings suggest that these effects stem from heightened financial risk, increased uncertainty, declining confidence and heightened awareness of climate change, leading to negative repercussions on the economy. Additionally, consumer prices increase temporarily, likely due to rising energy and food costs. We find a decline in the monetary policy rate and an increase in government spending, which potentially mitigate the adverse macroeconomic effects. However, we also observe a prolonged rise in public debt relative to GDP and a decrease in r-star following the disasters. With climate change persisting, this could constrain the flexibility of monetary and fiscal policies in the future. Overall, our findings emphasize the urgency of combating climate change and, in tandem, enhancing economic and financial resilience. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, natural disasters, transmission, local projections |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E32 E44 E52 E62 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:311840 |
| By: | Pedro Brinca; Joao Duarte; Ana Melissa Ferreira; Valter Nobrega |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we revisit the question of what the welfare costs of business cycles are with new insights. The seminal paper by Lucas (1987) found welfare costs to be negligible at around 1%, but subsequent literature focused on finding mechanisms that could rationalize larger welfare costs. Our study builds on recent research that incorporates incomplete markets, adjustment costs, and marginal propensities to consume to show that welfare costs can be substantial. Our calculations indicate that eliminating business cycle fluctuations would result in a 1.25% increase in welfare, as measured in consumption equivalents. Furthermore, using a 2-asset HANK model, we find a welfare cost of 2.6%. This result arises from considering portfolio adjustment costs, which generate a distribution of marginal propensities to consume along the income dimension that is empirically plausible and produces a share of (rich and poor) hand-to-mouth households that is consistent with recent findings. In periods of recession, these values rise to 11.1%. These results are particularly driven by effects from the price rigidity. |
| Keywords: | Welfare costs, Business cycles, Liquidity, Hand-to-mouth |
| JEL: | E32 E21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp667 |
| By: | Wongkot Rujiwattanapong (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of shocks to the flow hazards into and out of unemployment on the aggregate household saving rate, and attempts to explain the spike in the US saving rate during the Great Recession with these shocks. The results are obtained from a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model under incomplete markets and borrowing constraints similar to Krusell and Smith (1998) using extended path algorithm, perturbation method and approximate aggregation. It is found that a negative job-finding shock and a positive job-separation shock simultaneously and separately contribute to an increase in the saving rate. Shocks to the job-finding probability create a more drastic and persistent impact on the saving rate than do shocks to the job-separation probability. The baseline model generates the saving rate that exhibits strikingly similar dynamics to the US saving rate; however, the magnitude of the model-generated responses is somewhat smaller than what can be observed in the US. Job-finding shocks alone explain almost all the dynamics of the saving rate during the Great Recession whilst both job-finding and job-separation shocks are important in explaining the saving dynamics during normal times. The same analysis under the complete market assumption yields results completely opposite to the US data. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles; job finding; job separation; private savings |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E23 E32 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2418 |
| By: | Valerie A. Ramey |
| Abstract: | This paper re-evaluates the effectiveness of temporary transfers in stimulating the macroeconomy using evidence from four case studies. The rebirth of Keynesian stabilization policy has lingering costs in terms of higher debt paths, so it is important to assess the benefits of these policies. In each case study, I analyze whether the behavior of the aggregate data is consistent with the transfers providing an effective stimulus. Two of the case studies are reviews of evidence from my recent work on the 2001 and 2008 U.S. tax rebates. The other two case studies are new analyses of temporary transfers in Singapore and Australia. In all four instances, the evidence suggests that temporary cash transfers to households likely provided little or no stimulus to the macroeconomy. |
| JEL: | E21 E27 E62 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33503 |
| By: | Afonso S. Moura; Gergely Buda; Vasco M. Carvalho; Giancarlo Corsetti; João B. Duarte; Stephen Hansen; Álvaro Ortiz; Tomasa Rodrigo; José V. Rodríguez Mora; Guilherme Alves da Silva |
| Abstract: | We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do this, we build daily consumption and investment aggregates using bank transaction records and leverage administrative data for measures of daily gross output and employment for Spain. We show that variables typically regarded as "slow moving", such as consumption and output, respond significantly within weeks. In contrast, the responses of aggregate employment and consumer prices are slow and peak at long lags. Disaggregating by sector, consumption category and supply-chain distance to final demand, we find that fast adjustment is led by downstream sectors tied to final consumption—in particular luxuries and durables—and that the response of upstream sectors is slower but more persistent. Finally, we find that time aggregation to the quarterly frequency alters the identification of monetary policy transmission, shifting significant responses to longer lags, whereas weekly or monthly aggregation preserves daily-frequency results. |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202501 |
| By: | Nikolay Iskrev |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I evaluate the properties and performance of band spectral estimators applied to business cycle models. Band spectral methods are widely used to study frequency-dependentrelationships among time series. In business cycle research, the Whittle likelihood approximation enables researchers to estimate models using only the frequencies those models are best suited to represent, such as the business cycle frequencies. Using the medium-scale model of Angeletos et al. (2018) as a data-generating process, I conduct a Monte Carlo study to assess the finite-sample properties of the band spectral maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and compare its performance with that of the full-spectrum and exact time-domain MLEs. The results show that the band spectral estimator exhibits considerable biases and efficiency losses for most estimated parameters. Moreover, both the full-information and band spectral Whittle estimators perform poorly in contrast to the time domain estimator, which successfully recovers all model parameters. I demonstrate how these findings can be understood through the theoretical properties of the underlying model, and describe simple tools and diagnostics that can be used to detect potential problems in band spectral estimation for a wide class of macroeconomic models. |
| JEL: | C32 C52 C51 E32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202419 |
| By: | Afonso S. Moura; Lorenz Emter; Nico Zorell; Ralph Setzer |
| JEL: | C23 E52 F45 G28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202414 |
| By: | Christoph Kaufmann; Jaime Leyva; Manuela Storz |
| Abstract: | The insurance sector and its relevance for real economy financing have grown significantly over the last two decades. This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy on the size and composition of insurers’ balance sheets, as well as the implications of these effects for financial stability. We find that changes in monetary policy have a significant impact on both sector size and risk-taking. Insurers’ balance sheets grow materially after a monetary loosening, implying an increase of the sector’s financial intermediation capacity and an active transmission of monetary policy through the insurance sector. We also find evidence of portfolio re-balancing consistent with the risktaking channel of monetary policy. After a monetary loosening, insurers increase credit, liquidity and duration risk-taking in their asset portfolios. Our results suggest that extended periods of low interest rates lead to rising financial stability risks among non-bank financial intermediaries. |
| JEL: | E52 G11 G22 G20 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202502 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The economy is broadly balanced but modest potential growth has constrained increases in living standards and makes it difficult to address fiscal and social needs. Policy priorities are therefore mainly of structural nature. They include boosting productivity and employment as well as strengthening fiscal, external, and financial sector buffers—particularly in the context of a challenging global environment. |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/037 |
| By: | Eichfelder, Sebastian; Knaisch, Jonas David; Schneider, Kerstin |
| Abstract: | We analyze how the expiration of a regional bonus depreciation regime in eastern Germany (Development Area Law, DAL) affected real investments and asset structures of establishments in the manufacturing sector. Our rich administrative data allow us not only to identify the aggregate effect, but also to determine which types of investments and firms are most affected. Our baseline results indicate that the DAL increased real aggregate investment by 16.0% to 19.9%. This effect is stronger for investments in buildings (76.6% to 92.9%) with long regular depreciation periods and land (108.0% to 121.3%) that cannot be depreciated regularly. The impact on equipment investment is much smaller (7.3% to 10.5%). Thus, firms not only increased real investment, but also adjusted their asset structure in response to the policy. We observe significantly stronger investment responses for large firms with lower tax planning and compliance costs and multi-establishment firms with more opportunity for subsidy shopping. However, we do not find evidence that firms with higher financial reporting costs (i.e., incorporated firms and firms without an active business owner) show a weaker investment response. |
| Keywords: | bonus depreciation, real investment, user cost of capital, tax elasticity |
| JEL: | G11 H25 H32 M41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arqudp:312395 |
| By: | Blaber, Richard Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper will argue that the collapse of advanced industrial society is inevitable on a global scale in the near-term (i.e., in a matter of decades from present), and that, furthermore, it will be irreversible. Industrial society, generally, will be seen as an aberration or anomaly in human history, one costly in terms of human life and suffering, as well as ecological devastation, lasting no more than three hundred years from the start of the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain in 1750 CE to its terminus in circa 2050 CE. If humanity is to survive, it must be in much smaller numbers, and with far less impact on the planet. |
| Date: | 2024–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gavz7_v1 |
| By: | Billings, Stephen B.; Soliman, Adam |
| Abstract: | Since the Great Recession, the traditional path to wealth creation through home ownership has stalled and worsened for many minority households. One potential and largely unexplored driver of this trend is the growing presence of institutional investors that purchase single-family homes and convert them to permanent rentals. We find that large institutional investors alone have decreased homeownership rates in Black neighborhoods in high growth southern cities like Charlotte, North Carolina by 4 percentage points. Using a granular spatial difference-in-differences estimator, we show that an institutional investor purchase leads to a 2% decline in neighboring property values. This effect is almost exclusively limited to majority Black suburban neighborhoods. These property value declines are also associated with commonly hypothesized social spillovers from the loss of homeownership, namely increases in crime and decreases in property maintenance and political participation. |
| Keywords: | homeownership; racial wealth gap; institutional investors |
| JEL: | R30 H80 |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126821 |
| By: | Jose Mesquita Gabriel; Luis Catela Nunes |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes a compensatory education program in Portugal whose aim is to provide equal educational opportunities for children from lower socioeconomic status (SES) families by ensuring additional school resources for deprived areas. Using two administrative databases covering virtually all public schools in Portugal, we present a comprehensive evaluation of such a program addressing an important effect that has been overlooked so far in the literature: a negative stigma effect, wherein students from higher SES families become less likely to enroll in treated schools. Our staggered difference-in-differences estimates show that: 1) the Student-to-Teacher ratio decreased significantly in treated schools as a result of their entry into the program, corresponding to an average drop of 9% relative to the pre-treatment average value; 2) the proportion of students whose mothers concluded upper secondary school entering treated schools declined substantially, a decrease of around 14% of the average pre-treatment value; and 3) no effects were observed in blind-marked national exam scores in the 4th, 6th-, and 9th-grade for students coming from lower SES families, while some positive effects were found for non-blind sources of evaluation, particularly in schools where the change in additional resources was more pronounced. Our results emphasize the need to account for unanticipated risks of further aggravating segregation across schools when implementing publicly announced programs, in particular when they lead to discontinuities in terms of school eligibility. |
| Keywords: | Education, Compensatory education programs, Inequalities, Portugal |
| JEL: | C21 H52 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp668 |
| By: | Calligaris, Sara; Chaves, Miguel; Criscuolo, Chiara; De Lyon, Joshua; Greppi, Andrea; Pallanch, Oliviero |
| Abstract: | Concentration - the share of an industry's output accounted for by its largest firms and a frequently used proxy of competition - has increased in European countries. This paper provides evidence about this development by introducing several methodological refinements in the cross-country measurement of concentration: it defines industries at a disaggregated level, mostly 3-digit; it takes into account the geographic level at which competition takes place - domestic, European or global; and it accounts for linkages between firms within the same domestic and multinational business group in the relevant geographic region of competition. It then applies these improvements to representative data for fifteen European countries, showing that average concentration increased by about 5 percentage points over the period 2000-2019, from 26% to more than 31%. Third, the paper investigates how each of the methodological improvements affects the levels and trends of concentration. |
| Keywords: | concentration; competition; market power |
| JEL: | L11 L22 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126768 |
| By: | Bedi, Tara Sylvia; Buehren, Niklas; Goldstein, Markus P.; Ketema, Tigist Assefa |
| Abstract: | Does it matter whether poverty reduction programs target the female or male spouse A randomized controllled trial in Ethiopia is used to study the differential impacts of easing information and financial constraints on agricultural productivity and household welfare, using data from 1, 214 households in two regions of Ethiopia. The program targeted the husband, the wife, or both in a married household. The results indicate that the targeted spouse determines the type and channel of impacts. Targeting both spouses increased agricultural productivity in the short run and the monetary value of small ruminants and poultry in the long run, with a marginal positive impact on nonfood expenditure. Targeting only the female spouse resulted in increased business income from businesses with female involvement. This consequently increased household use of formal savings devices. This is in line with female preferences outside agriculture and for off-farm activities, and it results in little impact on agricultural productivity, despite an increase in women’s access to extension services. Targeting only the male spouse has no impact on household savings or expenditure even though it increases men’s wage income. The results suggest that the sharing of knowledge about the intervention changed household decisions. This would explain the different outcomes when both spouses were targeted, rather than only one. |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10651 |
| By: | Amanda Dahlstrand; Nestor Le Nestour; Guy Michaels |
| Abstract: | Online consultations with doctors are convenient for patients and produce similar health outcomes to in-person visits. But research by Amanda Dahlstrand, Nestor Le Nestour and Guy Michaels finds that deciding which patients are seen online is crucial to whether significant cost savings are made. |
| Keywords: | healthcare, service provision |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:696 |
| By: | Furnas, Alexander C; LaPira, Timothy Michael (James Madison University); Wang, Dashun |
| Abstract: | Science, long considered a cornerstone in shaping policy decisions, is increasingly vital in addressing contemporary societal challenges. However, it remains unclear whether science is used differently by policymakers with different partisan commitments. Here we combine large-scale datasets capturing science, policy, and their interactions to systematically examine the partisan differences in the use of science in policy across both the federal government and ideological think tanks in the United States. We find that the use of science in policy documents has featured a steady increase over the last 25 years, highlighting science’s growing relevance in policymaking. However, this marked increase masks stark and systematic partisan differences in the amount, content, and character of science used in policy. Democratic-controlled congressional committees and left-leaning think tanks cite substantially more science, and more impactful science, compared to their Republican and right-leaning counterparts. Moreover, the two factions cite substantively different science, with only about 5% of scientific papers being cited by both parties, underscoring a strikingly low degree of bipartisan engagement with scientific literature. We find that the uncovered large partisan disparities are rather universal across time, scientific fields, policy institutions, and issue areas, and they are not simply driven by differing policy agendas. Probing potential mechanisms, we field an original survey of over 3, 000 political elites and policymakers, finding substantial partisan differences in trust in scientists and scientific institutions, which potentially contribute to the observed disparities in science use. Overall, amidst rising political polarization and science’s increasingly critical role in informing policy, this paper uncovers systematic partisan disparities in the use and trust of science, which may have wide-ranging implications for science and society at large. |
| Date: | 2024–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aep9v_v1 |
| By: | Niederste-Hollenberg, Jutta; Hillenbrand, Thomas; Greiwe, Jan; Gruber, Sonia; Marscheider-Weidemann, Frank; Rothengatter, Oliver; Sartorius, Christian; Schleich, Joachim; Walz, Rainer |
| Abstract: | Die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der deutschen Hersteller im Bereich der Wasserwirtschaft ist weiterhin sehr gut. Beigetragen hat die Umwelt- und Innovationspolitik der Vergangenheit, die Neuerungen begünstigt und deren Diffusion vorangetrieben hat. Der bestehende Reinvestitionsbedarf und neue Herausforderungen (Mikroschadstoffe, Kreislaufwirtschaft, semi-dezentrale Ansätze, Energie-Wasser-Nexus, Klimaanpassung, blau-grüne Infrastruktur…) sind mit Chancen verbunden. Innovative Weiterentwicklungen erfordern entsprechende Rahmenbedingungen und eine Intensivierung der Nachfrage, die u.a. durch Regulierungen bewirkt werden können. Lenkungswirksame Politikinstrumente (bspw. Abwasserabgabe, Wasserentnahmeentgelt, Pestizidabgabe) können - flankiert durch Fördermaßnahmen oder Abbau nicht-lenkungswirksamer Abgaben - durch eine geeignete, verursachergerechte Ausgestaltung weiterentwickelt werden und weitere Innovationstreiber und Akteure (Hersteller, Anwender, Landwirtschaft) einbinden. Die notwendigen Transformationen betreffen weitere Sektoren mit unterschiedlichen Akteuren und zusätzlichen Rechtsgebieten. Die sektorübergreifende Integration (Digitalisierung/Data Science, ökologische Landwirtschaft, circular economy, urbane Transformation) kann wichtige systemische Innovationen - institutionell wie technologisch - voranbringen. Das BMBF besetzt als wichtigster Forschungsfördermittelgeber eine Schlüsselrolle. Vor dem Hintergrund des Transformationsbedarfs ist eine intensive, begleitende Analyse der Innovationsbedingungen strategisch sinnvoll. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:efisdi:312420 |
| By: | Holubová, Barbora; Kahancová, Marta |
| Abstract: | This working paper is part of the DEFEN-CE project and seeks to: • review the existing literature defining vulnerability and vulnerable groups; • develop an own, multi-faceted conceptualization of vulnerable groups, based on the available literature • Find theoretical relevance on the issue of vulnerability • Conceptualize vulnerability and vulnerable groups in order to guide empirical research within the DEFEN-CE project The report collects relevant theoretical concepts and approaches to understand vulnerability as a basis for identifying the vulnerable groups and their operationalization and measurement in the project. We applied a heuristic approach to define the vulnerability/ties and got inspired by the meaning of the concept of the vulnerability and related concepts beyond social sciences or labour market concepts. Basically, we are looking for heuristic matric of vulnerability help us to detect what is the construction of the “vulnerable group”. |
| Date: | 2024–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2dhyv_v1 |
| By: | Kahancová, Marta |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has generated unprecedented health and far-reaching life consequences, triggering a global social and economic crisis through its protective measures aimed at safeguarding lives. This crisis compels social scientists and researchers to scrutinize the deficiencies in social and economic readiness and responses to the pandemic. The DEFEN-CE project, supported by the European Commission, delves into institutional strategies and power dynamics in social protection, policy formulation, and implementation. It sought to safeguard labour markets and workers by examining the governance of vulnerable groups in the (post) COVID-19 labor markets. Moreover, it aimed to generate research-based knowledge at EU and national levels, including candidate countries, on the role of social partners in creating and implementing protective policies vis-à-vis vulnerable groups. This report spotlights all key project findings both at the EU-level and the national level in 12 countries, embedding them to a conceptual understanding of vulnerability in general and labour-market related vulnerability in particular. |
| Date: | 2024–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v45ty_v1 |
| By: | Lanka, Academy of Sciences of Sri |
| Abstract: | The provision of appropriate science advice to governments is of national, regional, and global importance. However, many countries, especially in the developing world, lack effective framework to provide science advice to governments, which was laid bare during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, there is an urgent need to describe and analyse the structures and processes providing science advice to governments with a view to strengthening science advice. Science advice requires synthesizing and brokering valid, relevant, and reliable scientific evidence in respect of different policies. The National Academy of Sciences of Sri Lanka conducted a study on the status and processes of institutionalizing Science Advice to Governments in the Australasian region. The aims of the study were to a) propose and facilitate the development and strengthening of systematic science advice in member countries and its institutionalization b) Improve awareness among partners on a range of laws and regulations that exist legitimizing institutions and the processes used for government science advice c) develop capacities of participating academies in providing science advice d) enable academies to play a role and be part of the science advice process The methodology included administration of a structured questionnaire to gather data for the Situation Analysis with respect to science advice in partner countries. The questionnaire responses were categorized under several headings identified as the ‘Colombo Framework’: Selection of advisors, organizational structures to provide advice, the process followed to collate and synthesize advice, the process of communication, and evaluation of the process and impact of advice. The results showed a diversity of responses indicating a range of structures and processes: • The structures and types of advisors included, chief science advisor or advisors, a science advisory office or agency, science advisory boards, science advisory councils and ad-hoc arrangements during emergencies or crises, such as task forces. • Selection of advisors varied from appointments by an executive authority to nominations by science organizations or selection processes based on academic credentials. • The initial framing of questions requiring science advice were by policymakers, parliament committee or the President and advisory council. • Collation and synthesizing evidence: The methods used included systematic reviews, meta-analyses, through surveys, consultative meetings, expert opinion, foresight tools and workshops and/meetings of the experts where the evidence was reviewed. • The process of communicating science advice included reports issued by the science advisors, or advice directed to the Presidential Office, to Cabinet office, or submitted through Secretary of the Ministry of Science and Technology to the Head of State, or reports to the relevant minister and presidential secretariat. • The impact of science advice on policy was rarely evaluated. • Case Studies for individual countries supplemented the situation analysis for that country. • A SWOT analyses was compiled based on each country responses to reflect the totality of responses and for guidance in drafting a framework for Roadmaps for each country. As part of the project a three-day workshop was held in Colombo, Sri Lanka on 'Institutionalizing Science Advice to Governments' 6-8 July 2023. A descriptive ‘Colombo Declaration’ was released calling on governments to partner with scientists and demonstrate stronger commitment in strengthening action to institutionalize science advice to governments. The concluding session described future actions of developing Roadmaps and Case Studies by each partner country. The contextualized roadmaps will be developed through an iterative process and ‘work in progress’ submitted by most partner agencies were included in the report. The key outcomes of the Project were the following: 1. Documentation of Science Advice Systems in countries with situation analysis, reinforced with case studies and SWOT analyses and a framework for contextualized roadmaps that could form the foundation for further activities with support from the IAP and AASSA. 2. Developed and disseminated the ‘Colombo Declaration’ calling on governments to institutionalize science advice 3. Availability of validated questionnaire and framework (‘Colombo framework’) to replicate similar studies elsewhere. 4. Development of a process for promotion of institutionalization of science advice to governments that could be replicated in other countries or regions. 5. Promoted awareness among public, public administrators and policymakers and younger generation of scientists to be part of this transformative process, particularly to ensure continuity of efforts. 6. Contextualized Roadmaps design process has been initiated that is meant to trigger further discussions. |
| Date: | 2023–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ygp84_v1 |
| By: | Alpes, Maybritt Jill |
| Abstract: | The article examines how academics can mobilize their epistemic resources to engage with justice claims able to challenge border violence. Many migration scholars would like to find ways to mobilize their knowledge to resist migrants’ human rights violations. Despite increased focus on research impact, border violence is only increasing. On the one hand, policy makers do not act on scholarly recommendations that are highly critical, but not necessarily actionable. On the other hand, when scholarly recommendations are actionable, legal and policy changes do not necessarily result in meaningful improvements for refugees’ and other migrants’ dignity. As a result, there is a dichotomy between applied research that is not critical and critical research that is not actionable. Against this backdrop, this article explores how migration researchers can reclaim the meaning of impact and smuggle critique into the term. The article is based on auto-biographical explorations of what it means for an anthropologist to produce knowledge on migration from within law faculties and as policy officer and research consultant for human and refugee rights organizations. Based on this material, the article argues that migration scholars who seek justice should not produce more evidence, but rather take law seriously as a knowledge practice. The article develops three design principles for migration scholars who seek to resist in the short- and medium-term migration laws and policies that violate human right principles. First, build knowledge alliances with justice actors. Second, theorize knowledge needs in justice claims. Third, broker the validity of truth claims. |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mzy8h_v1 |
| By: | Bou Habib, Chadi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese economy remains reliant on foreign inflows, crises will persist, with different manifestations. Regardless of the period considered, foreign inflows increase domestic prices and induce real appreciation. Low productive capacities and insufficient job creation lead to high emigration. Emigration increases the reliance on foreign inflows, which in turn increase domestic prices and reduce competitiveness, hence triggering further emigration and further reliance on foreign inflows. Income and prices increase, but exports decline, and growth remains volatile. The interruption of the flows of capital and goods and the impossibility to migrate due to the First World War drove Lebanon into starvation in 1916. The interruption of inflows of capital in 2019 led to a major crisis and massive outmigration, as predicted through the simulations based on the structure of the Lebanese economy in 2004. The simulations effectively capture the impact of external shocks on the Lebanese economy and closely align with the actual changes in economic variables during 2005 to 2020. |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10688 |
| By: | Rebecca Freeman; Marco Garofalo; Enrico Longoni; Kalina Manova; Rebecca Mari; Thomas Prayer; Thomas Sampson |
| Abstract: | The UK left the EU's single market and customs union at the start of 2021, entering into the Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU. Rebecca Freeman, Marco Garofalo, Enrico Longoni, Kalina Manova, Rebecca Mari, Thomas Prayer and Thomas Sampson find that it is smaller UK firms that have been hit hardest, with a significant drop in their exports to the EU. |
| Keywords: | UK Economy: Brexit, Trade |
| Date: | 2025–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:701 |
| By: | Moretti, Matías; Pandolfi, Lorenzo; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Villegas Bauer, Germán; Williams, Tomás |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence of inelastic demand in the market for risky sovereign bonds and examines its interplay with government policies. The methodology combines bond-level evidence with a structural model featuring endogenous bond issuances and default risk. Empirically, the paper exploits monthly changes in the composition of a major bond index to identify flow shocks that shift the available bond supply and are unrelated to country fundamentals. The paper finds that a 1 percentage point reduction in the available supply increases bond prices by 33 basis points. Although exogenous, these shocks might influence government policies and expected bond payoffs. The paper identifies a structural demand elasticity by feeding the estimated price reactions into a sovereign debt model that isolates endogenous government responses. These responses account for a third of the estimated price reactions. By penalizing additional borrowing, inelastic demand acts as a commitment dev ice that reduces default risk. |
| Date: | 2024–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10735 |
| By: | Dahmani Scuitti, Anais; Knippenberg, Erwin Willem Yvonnick Leon; Kosmidou-Bradley, Walker Turnbull; Belanger, Johanna Lee |
| Abstract: | Given increasing levels of displacement due to conflict and climate change, it is important to establish robust monitoring systems. This paper explores how remote sensing data, particularly geospatial data, can be leveraged to monitor displacement flows. It draws lessons from northeastern Afghanistan, namely the 2018 drought, which is considered one of the worst in decades. The analysis identifies displacement patterns by combining displacement data from the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix with nighttime lights. The results suggest that the cumulated displacement movements from 2018 to 2020 can be proxied by trends in nighttime light imagery. Settlements with higher net inflows of displaced persons between 2018 and 2020 have comparatively larger nighttime light growth. Allowing for nonlinearity suggests decreasing marginal returns of displacement on nighttime lights, as settlements showing the largest expansion of nighttime lights are those with the lowest displacement inflows. The model uses data on nighttime lights to predict whether a settlement was a net receiver of displacement flows during 2018–20 and correctly classifies 63.2 percent of the settlements as net inflow or net outflow. This study provides a proof of concept to test whether population displacements can be proxied using geospatial data trained on administrative records in a data-scarce environment, where real-time insights can inform humanitarian assistance. This work was done before the political crisis of August 2021. |
| Date: | 2023–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10583 |
| By: | João Francisco Sarno Carvalho (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to analyze the transformations that have occurred in the regional innovation system of Minas Gerais over the past 20 years. To achieve this objective, the research was structured in three stages: (a) mapping the main agents of the innovation system of Minas Gerais; (b) describing the changes that have occurred in these agents over the past two decades; and (c) identifying the new agents that have emerged during this period. The methodological approach adopted is qualitative and descriptive in nature. To meet the proposed objectives, research was conducted based on secondary data from official databases. Data analysis was conducted using Microsoft Excel software and the Philcarto tool for generating maps, focusing on a descriptive approach. The results obtained indicate transformations of an economic, political and social nature, which aim to consolidate and achieve maturity of the innovation system in Minas Gerais. The evidence presented contributes to a deeper understanding of the role and particularities of the Minas Gerais Innovation System, offering important subsidies for the formulation of public and private policies aimed at Technological Innovation in the state. |
| Keywords: | Regional Innovation System. Minas Gerais Innovation System. Technological Innovation. |
| JEL: | O38 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td679 |
| By: | Racek, Daniel; Zhang, Qi; Thurner, Paul; Zhu, Xiao Xiang; Kauermann, Goeran |
| Abstract: | The timely automated detection of building destruction in conflict zones is crucial for human rights monitoring, humanitarian response, and academic research. However, current approaches rely on expensive proprietary satellite imagery, limiting their scalability and accessibility. This study addresses these challenges by introducing an automated and unsupervised method that uses freely available Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency (ESA). By statistically assessing interferometric coherence changes over time, our approach enables the timely detection of building destruction at scale without requiring labeled training data, which are often not available in conflict-affected regions. We validate our method across three case studies, Beirut, Mariupol, and Gaza, demonstrating its ability to capture diverse patterns of destruction and their spatio-temporal dynamics, despite the moderate resolution of Sentinel-1 imagery. Our approach offers a scalable, global, and cost-effective solution for detecting building destruction in conflict zones. |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:86t3g_v1 |
| By: | Robert J. Kurtzman; Hannah Landel |
| Abstract: | Private depository institutions play a crucial role in the provisioning of credit in the United States. The two private depository sectors in the Financial Accounts of the United States (the Financial Accounts) serving as the primary lenders to households are U.S.-chartered depository institutions (banks) and credit unions. Credit unions mostly make loans to households, while banks make large shares of their loans to both households and businesses. |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-01-31-2 |
| By: | Chee, Liberty (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | This draft contains parts of the conclusion of the book manuscript with the same title as above. The book unpacks the “market logic” of private recruitment and employment agencies as actors in migration governance. It looks into why these actors play such an outsized role in domestic worker migration, and examines their relations with employers, workers and state apparatuses. The book argues that these relations comprise neoliberal migration governance – a governmental rationality that cedes authority to the market. |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qsyn3_v1 |
| By: | Estrin, Saul; Herrmann, Andrea; Levesque, Moren; Mickiewicz, Tomasz; Sanders, Mark |
| Abstract: | We present a Schumpeterian growth model with new venture creation, under uncertainty, which explains the tradeoff between speed-to-breakeven, revenue-at-breakeven and relates this to the level of innovation. We then explore the tradeoffs between these outcomes empirically in a unique sample of 331 information and communication technology (ICT) ventures using a multi-input, multi-output stochastic frontier model. We estimate the contribution of financial capital and labor input to the outcomes and the tradeoffs between them, as well as address heterogeneity across ventures. We find that more innovative (and therefore more uncertain) ventures have lower speed-to-breakeven and/or lower revenue-at-breakeven. Moreover, for all innovativeness levels, new ventures face a tradeoff between speed-to-breakeven and revenue-at-breakeven. Our results suggest that it is the availability of proprietary resources (founder equity and labor) that helps ventures overcome bottlenecks in the innovation process, and we propose a line of research to explain the (large) unexplained variation in venture creation efficiency. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; innovation; new venture creation; proprietary resources; stochastic frontier analysis; schumpeterian growth model |
| JEL: | O31 L29 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126789 |
| By: | Stacciarini, João Henrique Santana (Federal University of Goiás) |
| Abstract: | Este trabalho investiga como o setor farmacêutico tornou-se um dos maiores e mais influentes setores econômicos da atualidade. Apresenta números e informações que respaldam essa afirmação e busca elucidar os fatores que contribuíram para tal ascensão. Desde a descoberta da penicilina por Alexander Fleming em 1928, as indústrias farmacêuticas evoluíram de pequenas entidades - muitas vezes familiares e de atuação local - para corporações multinacionais avaliadas em centenas de bilhões de dólares com influência global. Entretanto, além da descoberta e diversificação de medicamentos, do aumento da demanda e da expansão da capacidade produtiva, parte dessa evolução é sustentada por estratégias complexas e, em alguns casos, perversas, que priorizam a maximização dos lucros em detrimento da saúde pública e individual. Os achados deste estudo revelam que, nas últimas duas décadas, as receitas do setor quadruplicaram, atingindo 1, 48 trilhão de dólares em 2022, um montante comparável ao Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de países desenvolvidos, como a Espanha. As vinte maiores empresas do setor possuem um valor de mercado combinado de US$ 3, 5 trilhões e ativos totalizando US$ 1, 86 trilhões, gerando receitas anuais de US$ 820 bilhões e lucros de US$ 181, 6 bilhões. Para contextualizar, somente os ativos dessas companhias são comparáveis ao PIB de todos os países da África Subsaariana. Empresas, como a Johnson & Johnson, possuem um valor de mercado que supera o PIB de 184 nações. O estudo também examina e discute práticas questionáveis adotadas pela indústria farmacêutica, incluindo o investimento de bilhões de dólares em lobby e financiamento eleitoral, influência sobre órgãos reguladores, apoio financeiro a organizações de pacientes, patrocínio a autores de "Diretrizes Clínicas", manipulação e ocultação de pesquisas e testes de medicamentos, e o direcionamento de investimentos maciços para fortalecer laços com prescritores, hospitais universitários e instituições acadêmicas. São fornecidos exemplos concretos dessas ações, apoiados por estudos, levantamentos de dados e decisões judiciais, que ressaltam as consequências alarmantes desta realidade. Por fim, a pesquisa analisa o marketing farmacêutico como uma das principais estratégias de aumento de vendas. A despeito dos medicamentos não serem mercadorias comuns, suscetíveis à promoção sob a lente do consumo desenfreado, as empresas investem bilhões anualmente em publicidade dirigida diretamente ao consumidor. No contexto brasileiro, o setor farmacêutico destaca-se como um dos principais investidores em marketing. Nos últimos anos, diversas empresas da área figuraram entre os maiores gastos individuais com propaganda. A emergência de estratégias de marketing digital impulsionadas pela internet, algoritmos avançados e redes sociais, junto a campanhas publicitárias nocivas à saúde pública e coletiva, ratificam um cenário preocupante e desafiador. |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:npbgx_v1 |
| By: | Goicoechea, Ana; Lang, Megan Elizabeth |
| Abstract: | Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a disproportionate burden from climate change, potentially threatening the operations and profitability of firms. Simultaneously, firms in LMICs may contribute to climate change through the emissions associated with production. This paper synthesizes the empirical evidence on the links between climate change and firms in LMICs. It identifies three major gaps: poor geographic coverage, little discussion of how market failures interact with climate change in ways that constrain firm decisions, and an overall greater focus on policies for mitigation than adaptation. |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10644 |
| By: | Rotte, Ralph (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | Currently, three aspects contribute to an increasing complexity of international nuclear security policies. Apart from a controversial “renaissance of nuclear energy” and corresponding technological innovations there is the rise of political and ideological great power conflicts as well as the intensifying structural weaknesses of the existing nuclear non-proliferation and verification regime centered on the IAEA. While the conflict between Russia and the West results in a tendency of declining relevance of potential non-proliferation of nuclear weapons compared to export and alliance priorities, the IAEA is increasingly suffering from underfunding. Given the technological progress and the threat of large-scale proliferation of nuclear facilities this results in the danger of an essential weakening of nuclear non-proliferation policies. |
| Date: | 2024–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:et9kc_v1 |
| By: | Disney, Richard; Gathergood, John; Machin, Stephen; Sandi, Matteo |
| Abstract: | "Right to Buy" (RTB) was a large-scale UK housing policy whereby incumbent tenants in public housing could buy their properties at heavily subsidised prices. The policy increased the national homeownership rate by over 10 percentage points between 1980 and the late 1990s. A key feature of RTB is that housing tenure changes did not involve residential mobility, as the policy bestowed homeownership on households in disadvantaged neighbourhoods in the public housing where they were already resident. This paper shows that exposure to RTB at birth significantly improved pupil performance in high-stakes exams and the likelihood to obtain a degree, while also improving labour earnings in young adulthood. The key drivers of these human capital gains are the wealth gains arising from the subsidy and the crime reduction generated by RTB. This is evidence of a novel means by which homeownership, and the resulting societal change and neighbourhood gentrification that accompanies it, contribute to increase human capital accumulation and improve educational and work outcomes for individuals in disadvantaged, low-income childhood settings. |
| Keywords: | human capital; homeownership; public housing |
| JEL: | I21 I28 K14 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126765 |
| By: | Woodcock, Ramsi |
| Abstract: | The news industry in the United States faces a funding crisis because the tech giants, particularly Google and Facebook, have acceded to the advertising monopolies once enjoyed by the newspaper industry itself. Breakup of these monopolies is unlikely to restore the news industry’s profits, however, because search and social media will remain better ad distribution channels than the news whether search and social media are competitive or monopolized. A better solution to the funding crisis would be for government to divide the advertising distribution market, reallocating to the news industry some of the ad impressions taken from it by the tech giants. This indirect, property-rights-based approach to government subsidization would address concerns, however misguided, that direct subsidization à la the BBC might lead to political interference in newsgathering. An important collateral benefit would be the opportunity to limit the total amount of advertising consumed by the economy by licensing fewer total ad impressions than are currently consumed. This would lead to an efficiency gain because advertising’s information function has withered in the information age, making advertising almost entirely manipulative in character, and therefore a threat to consumer sovereignty. Ad distribution revenues would not fall, however, because advertising cancels—firms advertise because others advertise, not because advertising increases sales— and so firms will bid up prices in proportion to the decline in available impressions. The proposed division and reduction of the advertising market would be constitutional because the First Amendment only protects commercial speech that promotes consumer sovereignty. Because advertising has become almost entirely manipulative in the information age, the First Amendment no longer protects it. |
| Date: | 2024–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yevt8_v1 |
| By: | Motta, Matt (Boston University School of Public Health); Haglin, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies have the potential to promote a wide range of public health objectives – including the consumption of healthful food, reducing anxiety associated with financial stressors (e.g., bill payments), and seeing a physician when sick – by providing those who qualify with direct cash payments. One overlooked mechanism of particular importance to health researchers is the possibility that guaranteed income might increase consultation of primary and preventive care (e.g., annual doctors’ visits; regular vaccination against infectious disease) by providing people with both the time and monetary resources to do so, thereby improving general health. We remedy this shortcoming by studying the effects of an exogenous shock to Alaska’s UBI payments to all state residents: the decision in 2022 to render the dividend’s “energy relief” provisions as non-taxable (thereby increasing payments by approximately $2, 000 inflation-adjusted dollars). Quasi-experimental random effects regression modeling procedures suggest that the number of Alaskans who sought primary care post-reform (relative to beforehand) increased by 6pp, which was significantly greater than the same difference (2pp) observed across all other (non-UBI) US States (∆ = 4pp, p < 0.01). Relatedly, we detect suggestive evidence that comparatively fewer Alaskans had difficulty affording primary care during this period, although we find less consistent evidence that increased UBI payments increased flu vaccine uptake rates relative to the national average. Our results suggest that basic income policy ought to be thought about as a form of health policy, as it has the potential to advance a wide range of health objectives related to primary and preventive care. |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zpgn3_v1 |
| By: | Islam, Asif Mohammed; Gatti, Roberta V. |
| Abstract: | Better managed firms perform better. Existing evidence has shown that family-managed firms have poorer management practices. Several reasons have been proposed. Limiting to family members reduces the talent pool of potential managers. Family management creates disincentives for other talented workers given that the environment is not meritocratic. Family managers themselves may be less motivated given that they may not have to compete for the position. This study scales up the evidence by exploring the relationship between family managers and management practices for about 9, 000 medium and large firms across 41 developing and advanced economies. The study contributes to the literature by investigating several internal and external operating factors that attenuate or accentuate the relationship between family management and the quality of management practices. The engagement of governments in terms of corruption and political connections is found to be influential. |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10684 |
| By: | Takeda, Kohei; Yamagishi, Atsushi |
| Abstract: | We provide new theory and evidence on the resilience of internal city structure after a large shock, analyzing the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Exploiting newly digitized data, we document that the city structure recovered within five years after the bombing. Our new dynamic quantitative model of internal city structure incorporates commuting, forward-looking location choices, migration frictions, agglomeration forces, and heterogeneous location fundamentals. Strong agglomeration forces in our estimated model explain Hiroshima's recovery, and we find an alternative equilibrium where the city center did not recover. These results highlight the role of agglomeration forces, multiple equilibria, and expectations in urban dynamics. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; history; expectations; atomic bombing; spatial dynamics |
| JEL: | C73 N45 O18 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126823 |
| By: | Robert Hill; Leigh Neethling; Morné Oosthuizen (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | In an attempt to mitigate their effect on climate change, a number of economies have already, or are in the process of shifting away from a reliance on coal-based power. This just energy transition means that many existing jobs in the coal industry will be lost in favour of so-called “green jobs”, which aim to contribute positively and sustainably to the environment. South Africa is one such economy that is embarking on the process of a just transition. But, given that the coal industry is predominantly represented by young people in the province of Mpumalanga, it is not clear how or if this vulnerable group will transition into newly created green jobs. Making use of occupational relatedness metrics, this research investigates the feasibility of green job opportunities to capture displaced youth in Mpumalanga, depending on their employment history. Results of this desktop study – which forms part of a larger cross-country study funded and led by the University of Cambridge – suggest that green jobs are relatively different to the existing experience and task competences of young people, and thus some form of reskilling programme is likely to be necessary for young people to take full advantage of the employment opportunities offered by green jobs. |
| Keywords: | Just transition; green jobs; youth employment; occupational relatedness; Mpumalanga |
| JEL: | E24 J24 J40 J62 O13 Q01 Q20 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202406 |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang (World Bank, GLO, IZA, Indiana University, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City); Stephane Hallegatte (World Bank); Minh Cong Nguyen (World Bank); Trong-Anh Trinh (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Despite a vast body of literature documenting the harmful effects of climate change on various socio-economic outcomes, little cross-country analysis exists on the global impacts of higher temperatures on poverty and inequality. Analyzing a new global panel dataset of subnational poverty in 137 countries covering the past decade, we find that a one-degree Celsius increase in temperature leads to a 17.1% increase in poverty, employing the US$2.15 daily poverty threshold, and a 1.1% increase in the Gini inequality index. We also find negative effects of colder temperature on poverty and inequality. Yet, while poorer countries—particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa—are more affected by climate change, household adaptation could have mitigated some adverse effects in the long run. The findings provide relevant and timely inputs for the global fight against climate change as well as the current policy debate on cost-sharing between richer and poorer countries. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, temperature, poverty, inequality, subnational data |
| JEL: | Q54 I32 O1 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-08 |
| By: | Paola Tubaro (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Antonio A Casilli (I3 SES - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation de Telecom Paris - Télécom Paris - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, NOS - Numérique, Organisation et Société - I3 SES - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation de Telecom Paris - Télécom Paris - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LACI - Laboratoire d'anthropologie critique interdisciplinaire - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - LAP - Laboratoire d’anthropologie politique – Approches interdisciplinaires et critiques des mondes contemporains, UMR 8177 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Maxime Cornet (SES - Département Sciences Economiques et Sociales - Télécom Paris - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, I3 SES - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation de Telecom Paris - Télécom Paris - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, NOS - Numérique, Organisation et Société - I3 SES - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation de Telecom Paris - Télécom Paris - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Clément Le Ludec (CERSA - Centre d'Études et de Recherches de Sciences Administratives et Politiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Institut Cujas - Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas, Université Paris-Panthéon-Assas); Juana Torres Cierpe (Inria Siège - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the organisational and geographical forces that shape the supply chains of artificial intelligence (AI) through outsourced and offshored data work. Bridging sociological theories of relational inequalities and embeddedness with critical approaches to Global Value Chains, we conduct a global case study of the digitally enabled organisation of data work in France, Madagascar, and Venezuela. The AI supply chains procure data work via a mix of arm's length contracts through marketplace-like platforms, and of embedded firm-like structures that offer greater stability but less flexibility, with multiple intermediate arrangements. Each solution suits specific types and purposes of data work in AI preparation, verification, and impersonation. While all forms reproduce well-known patterns of exclusion that harm externalised workers especially in the Global South, disadvantage manifests unevenly in different supply chain structures, with repercussions on remunerations, job security and working conditions. Unveiling these processes of contemporary technology development provides insights into possible policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Data work, artificial intelligence, outsourcing, offshoring, embeddedness, supply chains |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04933816 |
| By: | Farrell, Graham (University of Leeds); Lovelace, Robin; O'Hern, Steve |
| Abstract: | This study uses data from Operation Snap (OpSnap), the UK police’s national system to receive road users’ video evidence of road traffic offences. Data from one police force area for 39 months (January 2021 to March 2024) (N = 20, 364 records) is analysed. Half were submitted by vehicle drivers (49.8%), a third by cyclists (34.7%), 7.2% by pedestrians, 2.2% by horse riders, 0.2% by motorcyclists, and 5.8% were unknown. We estimate that, relative to road distance travelled, cyclists were 20 times more likely to submit video evidence than vehicle drivers. The most common offences overall were driving ‘without reasonable consideration to others’ or ‘without due care and attention’. Half (53.5%) of reported cases resulted in the recommended disposal of an educational course, % no further action 12.6% conditional offer, and 1.6% resulted in court appearance. A research agenda using OpSnap data is outlined that could emerge if national datasets are compiled and responsibly opened-up and made available for research and policy-making: data-driven research should identify hotspot locations and other correlates of dangerous and antisocial road use at regional, and local levels; research projects should investigate disposal-related decision-making, video quality, and the role of supporting evidence; offence concentration (recidivism, repeat submitters of evidence, spatial hotspots) and case progression including court cases should be explored with reference to new video evidence. We conclude that datasets derived from publicly-uploaded video submission portals have the potential to transform evidence-based policy and practice locally, nationally and internationally. |
| Date: | 2024–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cgjmr_v1 |
| By: | Quick, Reiner; Münch, M.; Mayer, J. H.; Schwobe, V. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:153164 |