|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Pundit, Madhavi (Asian Development Bank); Ramayandi, Arief (Asian Development Bank Institute); Simba, Patrick Jaime (Asian Development Bank); Sorino, Dennis (Asian Development Bank); Tan, Sharyl Rose (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations—commonly represented by movements in the output gap—help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This paper proposes the use of an Economic Activity Index, developed to monitor monthly business cycle fluctuations in Asia. The index summarizes a selection of updated monthly economic indicators to gauge movements in the output gap. The paper shows that the application of machine learning models substantially improves the ability of the index to track actual fluctuations of the business cycle compared with models constructed using a traditional principal component analysis. Grouping the information used to construct the index into six categories—consumption, investment, trade, government, financial, and the external sector— makes it possible to break down and explain drivers of movements in the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic monitoring; tracking business cycles; economic fluctuations; nowcasting |
| JEL: | C32 C63 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0766 |
| By: | Olivier Arsene (EESC-GEM Grenoble Ecole de Management, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Claudio Vitari (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Cette étude examine l'impact des logiciels de santé sur le technostress des médecins libéraux en France, en considérant le contexte spécifique dans lequel ils exercent. Utilisant une méthodologie mixte, nous avons d'abord mené 25 entretiens semi-directifs auprès de médecins libéraux et de professionnels les accompagnant dans l'utilisation des technologies de santé. Cette phase qualitative a permis d'identifier les principaux stresseurs technologiques et contextuels affectant les médecins. Les résultats préliminaires révèlent que le contexte d'exercice (pénurie de soignants, évolution des comportements patients, contraintes réglementaires) modère significativement l'impact des technologies de santé sur le stress des médecins. Nous avons notamment observé que certaines fonctionnalités des logiciels, bien que conçues pour améliorer la pratique, peuvent exacerber des stresseurs préexistants ou en créer de nouveaux. Sur la base de ces observations, nous avons élaboré un modèle conceptuel et des hypothèses testant les interactions entre les stresseurs technologiques et contextuels. Ces hypothèses seront vérifiées dans une phase quantitative ultérieure, via un questionnaire diffusé à large échelle auprès des médecins libéraux français. Cette recherche contribue à une meilleure compréhension du technostress dans le contexte spécifique de la médecine libérale, en soulignant l'importance de considérer l'environnement d'exercice dans l'analyse des effets des technologies de santé sur le bien-être des médecins. |
| Keywords: | Technostress, médecins libéraux, technologies numériques de santé, méthodologie mixte, bien-être au travail |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04887042 |
| By: | Bayari, Celal |
| Abstract: | Japan’s national hospital system, which consists of a combination of private, national, prefectural and metropolitan hospitals, is the largest employers of the of the doctors. The article provides details on the women doctors’ discontinuous workforce participation in the Japanese hospital system, the dominance of part-time work patterns, and the nature of inflexibility in the work structures that disallow the maintenance of separate work and life spheres. This paper further discusses the effects of the COVID 19 pandemic on Japanese healthcare provision structures in hospitals and the extensive inhibitions that the pandemic placed on the careers of women doctors. The article details the nature of the chronic doctor shortage in Japan, and professional burnout incidences among the women doctors, and how the COVID 19 pandemic intensified these two factors. The analysis herein raises the policy issues at government and workplace level. The article argues that the establishment of free and universal childcare facilities, and family caregiving mechanisms via government fiscal restructuring would assist in the dissolution of gendered work patterns. |
| Keywords: | Burnout, gender gap, Japan, women doctors, workforce participation |
| JEL: | D13 D31 D6 D63 H5 H51 H52 H53 H55 I11 I13 I15 I18 J3 J31 J4 J41 J44 J45 J53 J58 J7 J71 K1 K12 P16 P43 P46 R1 R12 R13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123405 |
| By: | Allan, Corey; Maré, David C. (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust); Hyslop, Dean R. (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust) |
| Abstract: | We examine employer monopsony power in the New Zealand private sector labour market. New Zealand has a small, geographically dispersed population, meaning that outside employment options for workers may be limited. However, New Zealand is generally considered to have a flexible labour market with large gross labour market flows. Using firm and individual level microdata from StatsNZ's Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) and Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI), we estimate monopsony power based on separation elasticities, on the estimated marginal product-wage wedge, and by direct estimation of firm-level labour supply elasticities. Estimates based on separation elasticities and the marginal product-wage wedge are reasonably consistent, with an implied wage markdown of at most 25%, on average. Direct estimates of labour supply elasticities are sensitive to small changes in specification, highlighting the identification difficulties. Our estimates based on separation elasticities and marginal product-wage wedges are broadly consistent with recent international evidence. These results suggest the presence of employer monopsony power in New Zealand's private sector, although the extent of that power may be limited. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, wage setting, worker mobility |
| JEL: | J42 J63 M50 D20 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17614 |
| By: | Rym Ibrahim (COACTIS - COnception de l'ACTIon en Situation - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne, LEST - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Sociologie du Travail - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The primary venue for the dissemination of academic knowledge remains overwhelmingly the classroom; however, the teaching of certain subjects may be subject to critical questioning – or even militant rejection – by students, thereby signalling a certain democratic vitality. In our case, this concerned a teaching module on innovation and entrepreneurship for ecological and solidarity-based transition. These refreshing challenges invite us to take these criticisms seriously and to search for the reasons behind these rejections in the content of the questioned teachings. In this essay, we specifically explore how the adoption of a performative epistemology might guide our ethical reflection as educators. It seems to us that teaching in innovation management and entrepreneurship constitutes an interesting case study, insofar as it raises a singular paradox: these subjects inherently carry the project of social evolution, if not transformation; yet, in doing so, they frequently draw their ontologies from other social science disciplines, particularly economics, whose systems of representation are often criticised. These teachings are now facing the growing politicisation and activism of young people in relation to climate issues and the questioning of an economic system they consider harmful to the planet. |
| Abstract: | Le lieu privilégié de la diffusion des connaissances académiques restant massivement la salle d'enseignement, l'enseignement de certaines matières peut être amenées à faire l'objet de remises en question critiques – voire d'un rejet militant – de la part des étudiants, signalant par là une certaine vitalité démocratique. Pour notre part, elles ont concerné un module d'enseignement en innovation et en entrepreneuriat pour la transition écologique et solidaire. Ces remises en question rafraichissantes nous invitent à prendre au sérieux ces critiques, et rechercher les raisons de ces rejets dans le contenu des enseignements mise en cause. Nous interrogeons notamment dans cet essai la manière dont l'adoption d'une épistémologique performative pourrait guider notre réflexion éthique en tant qu'éducateurs. Il nous semble que les enseignements en management de l'innovation et en entrepreneuriat constituent un cas d'étude intéressant dans la mesure où ils soulèvent un paradoxe singulier : ils portent intrinsèquement en eux le projet d'une évolution, sinon d'une transformation sociale ; ce faisant ils empruntent néanmoins fréquemment leurs ontologies à d'autres disciplines des sciences sociales, en particulier la science économique, dont les systèmes de représentation sont fréquemment décriés. Ces enseignements se confrontent désormais à la politisation et à l'activisme croissant des jeunes en matière de climat, et à la remise en cause d'un système économique qu'ils considèrent comme délétère pour la planète. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Education, Ontology, Epistemology, Performativity, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneuriat, Ontologies, Epistémologie, Performativité |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04893674 |
| By: | Chai, Yuan; Pardey, Philip G.; Gray, Richard; Maros, Lampros Nikolaos |
| Abstract: | Assigning the farmer versus breeder shares of the economic value derived from improved crop varieties remains a contentious issue, with real world food security, poverty alleviation and environmental health consequences. Drawing on ideas regarding the economics of (sequential) innovation that align especially well with varietal improvement, we introduce a new way of attributing the added value derived from crop varietal improvement between current breeding programs and the recent and distant past efforts of prior (formal and farmer) breeders. We then apply our new attribution method to entirely new data we compiled over the past few years for the development and uptake of Canadian wheat varieties to investigate the implications of different attribution rules for breeder versus farmer benefits. We use our illustrative empirical results to guide and recommend policy reforms regarding the multilateral system (MLS) of access and benefit sharing encapsulated in the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. Our proposed reforms are designed to both eliminate the inventive downsides of the MLS Treaty levy (effectively a tax on seed sales) and to better align MLS goals with other policies and practices associated with the plant breeders rights (PBRs) embodied in the International Convention for the Protection of New Plant Varieties (UPOV), including end-point royalties that represent a return on innovative effort levied on grain sales. The Treaty levy is clearly failing to generate sufficient revenues to fully achieve its stated genetic conservation and benefit sharing goals. The evidenced-based policy options we identify can constitute a win-win fix that realigns benefit sharing equity outcomes with innovation incentives for crop breeding throughout the world. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:349220 |
| By: | Carlos Cantú; Jon Frost; Tirupam Goel; Jermy Prenio |
| Abstract: | To successfully manage their financial obligations and have confidence in their financial future (financial health) people need to access and use financial services (financial inclusion). Yet inclusion alone may not be sufficient: financial health can suffer if the quality of use of financial services is poor (eg issues with provision such as scams or a lack of financial literacy and know-how on the part of the consumers). Public policy can boost financial health by promoting financial consumer protection, advancing financial literacy and enacting foundational policies like sound regulation and open finance. |
| Date: | 2024–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:85 |
| By: | Yuxi Hong |
| Abstract: | Accurate stock market prediction provides great opportunities for informed decision-making, yet existing methods struggle with financial data's non-linear, high-dimensional, and volatile characteristics. Advanced predictive models are needed to effectively address these complexities. This paper proposes a novel multi-layer hybrid multi-task learning (MTL) framework aimed at achieving more efficient stock market predictions. It involves a Transformer encoder to extract complex correspondences between various input features, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) to capture long-term temporal relationships, and a Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) to enhance the learning process. Experimental evaluations indicate that the proposed learning structure achieves great performance, with an MAE as low as 1.078, a MAPE as low as 0.012, and an R^2 as high as 0.98, when compared with other competitive networks. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.09760 |
| By: | Rinner, Claus (Toronto Metropolitan University); Uda, Mariko; Manwell, Laurie |
| Abstract: | Immediately following the emergency use authorizations of COVID-19 vaccines, governments around the world made these products available to their populations and later started implementing differential rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens regarding mobility and access to venues and services. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) is a time series database that reflects the extent of public health measures in each country. On the basis of the OxCGRT Containment and Health Index, we calculated a corresponding discrimination index by subtracting the daily index values for vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. The resulting metric provides a cursory quantification of the discrimination experienced by unvaccinated individuals throughout 2021 and 2022. Patterns in the index data show a high degree of discrimination with great numeric and temporal differences between jurisdictions. Around 90% of countries in Europe and North and South America discriminated against their unvaccinated citizens at some point during the pandemic. The least amount of discrimination was found for countries in Central America and Africa. In order to move towards sustainable post-pandemic recovery and prevent discriminatory public health policies in the future, we recommend that human rights protections be expanded and the prohibition of discrimination be extended beyond a limited list of grounds. |
| Date: | 2025–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h4djv |
| By: | Mohiuddin, Hossain; Fukushige, Tatsuya; Fitch-Polse, Dillon |
| Abstract: | Micromobility options such as electric bike-share and scooter-share services are a fundamental part of the existing shared mobility landscape. Research has shown that micromobility use can reduce car dependence. This is accomplished through trip-level mode replacement and adjustments in mode-use configurations in daily travel. Understanding the full potential of micromobility services as a car replacement can help cities better plan for the services to meet environmental sustainability goals. Researchers at the University of California, Davis collected GPS-based travel diary data from individual micromobility users from 48 cities in the US and examined their travel behavior and micromobility use patterns. They found thatmicromobility services can displace car use. Toachieve environmental sustainability goals, cities must pursue options that will deliver benefits, such as micromobility services. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycles, micromobility, modal split, scooters, travel surveys, vehicle miles of travel, vehicle sharing |
| Date: | 2025–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt91w588s7 |
| By: | Fernando Avalos; Deniz Igan; Cristina Manea; Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | During the current monetary policy tightening episode, financial conditions co-moved closely with policy rates, especially in the initial stages but with some differentiation across countries. For advanced economies, the tightening of financial conditions was stronger this time than in the past, while its full impact on real activity appears to be taking longer than usual. Financial conditions may continue tightening long after central banks stop raising policy rates, with possible implications for financial stability. |
| Date: | 2023–11–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:80 |
| By: | Soane, Emma |
| Abstract: | Managers in many kinds of organizations encounter risks in their daily work. A key challenge involves finding ways to manage risks and prevent harm to individuals or organizations, while retaining risks to realize opportunities. These pressures create a tension between risk management and risk retention that prevails in many sectors and is especially consequential in organizations where failures to address it may be fatal. I use inductive analysis to explore qualitative data from 72 television production company managers whose work has potential for trauma, injury and death as well as success. I find the tension between risk management and risk retention can be understood in relation to perceptions and goals. I contribute to theorizing about organizational paradox by showing how perceptions of the tension differ at the individual level. Some managers perceive the tension as a trade‐off, focus on risk management and emphasize safety goals. Other managers perceive the tension as a paradox and emphasize wider performance goals that encompass safety and risk. These managers use their agency to foster empowerment and creativity. Doing so enhances to both risk management and risk retention, creating a dynamic equilibrium that reduces harm, realizes opportunities and enriches performance. |
| Keywords: | risk management; performance; goals; risk retention; paradox |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126951 |
| By: | Henning Hermes; Marina Krauß; Philipp Lergetporer; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold |
| Abstract: | This field experiment investigates the causal impact of mothers’ perceptions of gender norms on their employment attitudes and labor-supply expectations. We provide mothers of young children in Germany with information about the prevailing gender norm regarding maternal employment in their city. At baseline, over 70% of mothers incorrectly perceive this gender norm as too conservative. Our randomized treatment improves the accuracy of these perceptions, significantly reducing the share of mothers who misperceive gender norms as overly conservative. The treatment also shifts mothers’ own labor-market attitudes towards being more liberal—and we show that specifically the shifted attitude is a strong predictor of mothers’ future labor-market participation. Consistently, treated mothers are significantly more likely to plan an increase in their working hours one year ahead. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1216 |
| By: | Konstantinos-Leonidas Bisdoulis |
| Abstract: | Fluctuations in the stock market rapidly shape the economic world and consumer markets, impacting millions of individuals. Hence, accurately forecasting it is essential for mitigating risks, including those associated with inactivity. Although research shows that hybrid models of Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML) yield promising results, their computational requirements often exceed the capabilities of average personal computers, rendering them inaccessible to many. In order to address this challenge in this paper we optimize LightGBM (an efficient implementation of gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT)) for maximum performance, while maintaining low computational requirements. We introduce novel feature engineering techniques including indicator-price slope ratios and differences of close and open prices divided by the corresponding 14-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), designed to capture market dynamics and enhance predictive accuracy. Additionally, we test seven different feature and target variable transformation methods, including returns, logarithmic returns, EMA ratios and their standardized counterparts as well as EMA difference ratios, so as to identify the most effective ones weighing in both efficiency and accuracy. The results demonstrate Log Returns, Returns and EMA Difference Ratio constitute the best target variable transformation methods, with EMA ratios having a lower percentage of correct directional forecasts, and standardized versions of target variable transformations requiring significantly more training time. Moreover, the introduced features demonstrate high feature importance in predictive performance across all target variable transformation methods. This study highlights an accessible, computationally efficient approach to stock market forecasting using LightGBM, making advanced forecasting techniques more widely attainable. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.07580 |
| By: | Podestá, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Los países de América Latina y el Caribe presentan una alta vulnerabilidad al cambio climático, lo que deriva en que la política fiscal sea fundamental para garantizar un futuro sostenible y resiliente. La medición del gasto público relacionado con el cambio climático es esencial para gestionar de forma eficiente los recursos y para evaluar el avance de las políticas climáticas y los compromisos internacionales, como los referentes al Acuerdo de París y a los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible. Este proceso requiere la movilización de recursos significativos, lo que puede facilitarse mediante el etiquetado del presupuesto climático. Dado que las cuestiones climáticas abarcan diversas áreas, ministerios y funciones de gobierno, en este informe se adopta un enfoque transversal y se analizan el gasto y la inversión pública para la adaptación al cambio climático y su mitigación en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Colombia, Honduras, México, Nicaragua y Perú. Además, se plantean orientaciones para fortalecer las estadísticas de gasto público climático, proporcionando una visión integral y un panorama actualizado de las finanzas públicas para abordar los desafíos en materia climática. |
| Date: | 2024–12–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:81149 |
| By: | Vines, Sarah; Gobel, Matthias S |
| Abstract: | Debates about the value of higher education are more vivid than ever. In this context, policy-makers and employers increasingly demand that universities produce graduates who can make an immediate contribution in the workplace. However, such discussions often overlook significant inequalities in participation, particularly those rooted in socioeconomic disparities. In this research, we explored how students’ social class backgrounds and their participation in internships and work placements shape their perceptions of employability. Drawing on Bourdieu’s theoretical framework of capital, we demonstrate the crucial role of social capital in explaining class-based disparities in perceived employability and in mitigating these disparities through participation in internships and work placements. A survey of 152 university students in the United Kingdom revealed that students from higher socioeconomic backgrounds exhibited greater perceived employability due to their greater access to social capital. Additionally, participation in internships and work placements was positively associated with students’ perceptions of employability, primarily by increasing their social capital. Importantly, this relationship held true regardless of students’ social class backgrounds. These findings point to internships and work placements as valuable mechanisms for universities to enhance students’ perceived employability whilst promoting greater equity in outcomes. We discuss practical strategies for higher education institutions to implement these findings and emphasise the need for policy-makers to address broader structural inequalities to diversify access to internships and professional networks, particularly for underrepresented groups. |
| Date: | 2025–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gszrf |
| By: | Adesina, Toheeb |
| Abstract: | This research investigates how artificial intelligence (AI) agents function in the advertising sector. It focuses on the transformation, applications, benefits, and concerns of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the new era of marketing. The research used secondary data from industry reports, academic studies and case studies, on how AI agent enhances ad targeting, campaign optimization, personalization, and predictive analysis. The main conclusions show that AI agents significantly increase productivity and customer engagement, but there are still issues with algorithmic biases and data privacy. The study highlights the need for a well-rounded strategy for implementing AI, supporting both innovation and moral considerations. To improve the advertising ecosystem, these insights are meant to help marketers and legislators use AI responsibly. |
| Keywords: | Advertising, Marketing, Artificial intelligence, Machine learning, AI-powered advertising, Programmatic advertising, Personalization, Predictive analytics, Consumer engagement, Chatbots, Innovation |
| JEL: | M3 M31 M37 |
| Date: | 2025–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123413 |
| By: | Gazilas, Emmanouil Taxiarchis; Belesis, Nicholas; Kampouris, Christos |
| Abstract: | With an emphasis on the influence of Big Four auditors in the US between 2000 and 2024, this paper explores the factors that influence audit fees and associated non-audit fees. We examine trends in audit, tax-related, and miscellaneous fees using a dataset that includes 1, 187 auditors and 13, 822 distinct entities across 1, 315 sectors. In order to determine if the Big Four auditors—Deloitte, PwC, EY, and KPMG—command a higher cost for their services, we examine how firm-specific factors like revenue, assets, book value, and earnings affect fee structures. This study looks at both linear and non-linear associations using advanced econometric methods, such as multiple regression analysis and non-parametric Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. It additionally incorporates interaction variables to account for differences between Big Four and non-Big Four auditors. The findings reveal that companies audited by Big Four auditors pay significantly more, which is symptomatic of their perceived market dominance and audit quality. While non-audit fees demonstrate clear trends impacted by auditor type, larger businesses with higher revenues and assets are also linked to higher rates. |
| Keywords: | Audit Fees, Big Four Auditors, Audit Quality, Corporate Governance, United States of America. |
| JEL: | M41 M42 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123383 |
| By: | Erkmen G. Aslim; Rafiuddin Najam; Erdal Tekin |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term effects of prenatal exposure to war violence on cognitive and developmental outcomes, focusing on children in Afghanistan, a country deeply affected by prolonged violent conflict. Using data from the 2022 Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and geo-referenced information on violent incidents, we estimate the effects of prenatal exposure to civilian casualties on educational attainment, math performance, and functional and disciplinary outcomes. Our findings reveal significant gender disparities, with girls exposed in utero demonstrating substantially worse cognitive and developmental outcomes compared to boys, including lower school attendance, reduced math performance, and increased functional difficulties. These adverse effects appear to be driven by disruptions in foundational cognitive skills during critical developmental periods. Post-birth exposure, while negatively affecting both genders, has less pronounced and consistent effects. These results highlight the intergenerational consequences of war conflict, emphasizing the need for interventions that address the unique vulnerabilities of children in conflict-affected regions. |
| JEL: | D74 I15 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33398 |
| By: | Filippo Cavaleri (University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; University of Chicago - Department of Economics); Angelo Ranaldo (University of Basel - Faculty of Business and Economics; Swiss Finance Institute; University of St. Gallen); Enzo Rossi (Swiss National Bank; University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how heterogeneity in investment horizons determines the demand for safe assets, bidding strategies in auctions, and post-auction price dynamics. We model a uniformprice double auction with resale where long-term investors hold assets to maturity, while dealer banks distribute the asset in secondary markets. Pure private (common) values emerge when only long-term investors (dealers) participate. Using unique data on Swiss Treasury bond auctions revealing bidders' identities, our empirical findings support key predictions: (1) substantial heterogeneity in demand schedules, with steeper demand curves for dealer banks; (2) Dealer banks' demand becomes steeper with increased demand risk and bid dispersion; and (3) demand elasticity positively predicts post-auction returns. |
| Keywords: | auction, asset demand, safe asset, private and common values, government bonds |
| JEL: | D44 G12 D82 G14 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp24110 |
| By: | Heather A Love (University of Waterloo [Waterloo]); Greg Adamson (Melbourne School of Population and Global Health [Melbourne] - University of Melbourne); Mallory James (Technical University of Munich and Helmholtz Center Munich - Institute of Environmental Medicine - WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste [Bad Honnef]); Jason Lajoie; Iven Mareels (Federation University [Churchill, Australia]); Zach Pearl (York University [Toronto]); Daniel S Schiff (Purdue University [West Lafayette]); Ketra Schmitt (Concordia University [Montreal]); Thirumala Arohi (Infosys Labs [Bangalore]); John Buchanan (SDSU - San Diego State University, The University of Sidney); Stéphanie Camaréna (Victoria University [Melbourne]); Marten Kaevats; Jeremy Reynolds (Purdue University [West Lafayette]); Pedro H Albuquerque (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); John C Havens; Davis Chacón-Hurtado (UCONN - University of Connecticut); Sucheta Lahiri (iSchool - Syracuse University School of Information Studies); Ayse Ocal (YTU - Yildiz Technical University); Alexi Orchard (UND - University of Notre Dame [Indiana]); Michael Rigby (MVS - Melbourne Veterinary School [Parkville, VIC, Australie] - Faculty of Science [Melbourne] - University of Melbourne); Rebecca Sherlock (University of Waterloo [Waterloo]); Victor Sundararaj (Infosys Labs [Bangalore]); Qin Zhu (Virginia Tech [Blacksburg]) |
| Abstract: | This article synthesizes the insights gained through presentations and discussions at the 2023 IEEE Workshop on Norbert Wiener in the 21st Century (21CW2023), which focused on "The Future of Work in the Age of Automation." Hosted at Purdue University, this interdisciplinary convening of technologists, social scientists, and humanists explored the impacts of automation on labor, drawing on Wiener's legacy of insights as a backdrop to examine the technologically mediated future we face in coming decades. The workshop presented a rare opportunity to reflect critically on these issues at a pivotal moment in human and technological history, and to elicit underappreciated dimensions. Areas of focus include: the qualitative and quantitative losses associated with automation and AI, the impacts automation has for questions about the meaningfulness of work, the challenges we face related to uncertainty and lack of predictability in technological advancement, and the opportunities that exist for centering human values and agency in these conversations. While acknowledging many items for concern in the context of automation in the future of work, such as the domination of economic narratives, a potential loss of qualitative texture, and the neglect of certain issues key to human identity, the authors conclude by offering optimistic visions—or calls—for redefining value and labor, preserving human agency, and embracing creative problem-solving. |
| Keywords: | limits of predictability, Conferences, Automation, Ethics, Cybernetics, Industries, Technological innovation, Social sciences, Oral communication, IEEE Societies, Heating systems, Future of work, automation, Norbert Wiener, cybernetics, technology ethics, artificial intelligence, meaning of work, ethical innovation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04890264 |
| By: | Ryan Niladri Banerjee; Aaron Mehrotra; Fabrizio Zampolli |
| Abstract: | Since interest rates declined in the early 2000s, credit expanded strongly and its allocation changed significantly in emerging market economies (EMEs). Being largely spared by the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), EMEs have seen credit increasingly flowing to the construction and real estate sectors at the expense of manufacturing. Due to lower productivity growth in the housing sector, this shift has coincided with decreasing growth rates. Strong credit growth concentrated in a few sectors has also been associated with greater dispersion of productivity across firms, suggesting less efficient resource allocation. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:91 |