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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Oussama Tayebi; Sabrine Emran |
| Abstract: | Este artículo se publicó originalmente en legrandcontinent.eu Varios países africanos están ascendiendo silenciosamente en la cadena de valor de los vehículos eléctricos. Campo de batalla de la rivalidad sino-estadounidense por los materiales críticos, África podría encontrar una oportunidad en la nueva fragmentación mundial de las cadenas de suministro. Estudio de caso de la República Democrática del Congo. Las sucesivas perturbaciones de las cadenas de suministro durante la década de 2010 y los primeros años de la de 2020 han llevado a los responsables políticos y económicos, especialmente en Estados Unidos y Europa, a plantearse formas de mitigar los riesgos asociados a la fuerte dependencia de un número limitado de proveedores, especialmente China. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pbnn_42 |
| By: | Maxted, Peter; Laibson, David; Moll, Ben |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households’ marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the effect of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy, but at the same time, slows down the speed of monetary transmission. Interest rate cuts incentivize households to conduct cash-out refinances, which become targeted liquidity injections to high-MPC households. Present bias also introduces a motive for households to procrastinate refinancing their mortgages, which slows down the speed with which this monetary channel operates. |
| JEL: | E21 E60 |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123935 |
| By: | Pérez Reyna, David (Universidad de los Andes); Rozada-Najar, Angie (Banco de la República); Suaza, Fausto (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset combining Colombian firm, bank, and credit registry data from 2006 to 2021, we investigate the relationship between bank productivity and the productivity of firms they lend to. We find a positive correlation that strengthened after 2017. We posit a theoretical model to rationalize this finding: more productive banks optimally choose to lend to more productive firms because they can better afford the fixed costs of accessing higher-quality firm profiles. |
| Keywords: | firm productivity; bank productivity; lending relationships; productivity measurement |
| JEL: | D24 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021298 |
| By: | Henrik Kleven |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes the optimal taxation of top earners in a world with externalities. It takes a reduced-form approach that spans a broad class of models where top earners create externalities on the economy. The model allows for a flexible relationship between top earnings and the distribution of earnings capacities in the population, including positive externalities (such as innovation) and negative externalities (such as rent-extraction). The model allows for simple optimal tax formulas that clarify the role of different externality patterns. In general, externalities that run from top earners to bottom earners have much stronger tax implications than externalities within the top group. The results are expressed in terms of estimable sufficient statistics and linked to recent evidence on the externalities of top entrepreneurs. A calibration to the US economy suggests that the optimal top tax rate, while lower than the Mirrleesian optimum, remains higher than the current top tax rate. |
| JEL: | H21 H23 H24 H31 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33345 |
| By: | Bock, Carolin; Siebeneicher, Sven; Rockel, Jens |
| Abstract: | We explore the potentials of participative co-financing as a means for regional banks to integrate an innovative financing technique that enhances their strengths. Our goal is to interest platform operators, decision-makers of regional banks, and researchers in the potentials of participative co-financing. We define participative co-financing as capital provision, where professional financing sources provide one part, and the other is supplied via participative crowdfunding. We claim that crowdfunding and regional banks are compatible by common interests. We explore potentials emanating at the intersection of both fields by drawing on entrepreneurship and finance literature. Eventually, we bridge the gap between both fields of research. To guide our research, we develop a framework featuring the intersection of crowdfunding and regional banks. We ask: Which potentials affect the intentions of decision-makers in regional banks to offer participative co-financing? The technology acceptance model (TAM) provides a theoretical foundation for our analysis. We conduct a twofold analysis by looking at the direct effects of potentials first and acceptance according to the TAM second. Thereby we consider the intention to offer lending- and equity-based co-financing. We surveyed decision-makers from an association of German savings banks and derived 108 answers. We show that regional banks generally accept participative co-financing as an innovative financing technique. The most likely model is lending-based co-financing, with individual persons, startups, and SMEs as target groups. Decision-makers hope to profit from cross-selling and being perceived as innovative. Nevertheless, further research and trials are necessary to advance participative co-financing. |
| Date: | 2025–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:152425 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy; Tamim Ahmed |
| Abstract: | This insightful study identifies barriers hindering Chinese overseas investment in the renewable energy sector of Bangladesh, from currency volatility and bureaucratic hurdles to skill shortages and regulatory unpredictability. By comparing Bangladesh’s fiscal tools with China’s robust investment strategies, it identifies actionable solutions to bridge the gaps and attract substantial global funding. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Chinese Overseas Investment, Regulatory Uncertainty, Bureaucratic Hurdles, Skill Shortages, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:60 |
| By: | Ali Abrishami; Jafar Habibi; AmirAli Jarrahi; Dariush Amiri; MohammadAmin Fazli |
| Abstract: | Financial markets are integral to a country's economic success, yet their complex nature raises challenging issues for predicting their behaviors. There is a growing demand for an integrated system that explores the vast and diverse data in financial reports with powerful machine-learning models to analyze financial markets and suggest appropriate investment strategies. This research provides an end-to-end decision support system (DSS) that pervasively covers the stages of gathering, cleaning, and modeling the stock's financial and fundamental data alongside the country's macroeconomic conditions. Analyzing and modeling the fundamental data of securities is a noteworthy method that, despite its greater power, has been used by fewer researchers due to its more complex and challenging issues. By precisely analyzing securities' fundamental data, the proposed system assists investors in predicting stock future prices and allocating assets in major financial markets: stock, bond, and commodity. The most notable contributions and innovations of this research are: (1) Developing a robust predictive model for mid- to long-term stock returns, tailored for investors rather than traders, (2) The proposed DSS considers a diverse set of features relating to the economic conditions of the company, including fundamental data, stock trading characteristics, and macro-economic attributes to enhance predictive accuracy, (3) Evaluating the DSS performance on the Tehran Stock Exchange that has specific characteristics of small to medium-sized economies with high inflation rates and showing the superiority to novel researches, and (4) Empowering the DSS to generate different asset allocation strategies in various economic situations by simulating expert investor decision-making. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.05297 |
| By: | Burnitt, Christopher (University of Warwick); Gars, Jared (University of Florida and JILAEE); Stalinski, Mateusz (University of Warwick & CAGE) |
| Abstract: | Addressing rising political polarization has become a focal point for policy makers. Yet, there is little evidence of its economic impacts, especially in contexts where partisanship cannot be easily hidden. To fill this gap, we study a novel channel: the perception of out-group partisan oversight of independent civil service reduces trust in regulation, affecting key markets (e.g., food and medicine). First, we motivate it by demonstrating the salience of the association between the president and expert regulators in US media reporting. Second, in a pre-registered experiment with 5, 566 individuals, we test the channel by exploiting an alignment in the way that the EPA under Trump and Biden defended the safety of spraying citrus crops with antibiotics. This enabled us to randomize the partisanship of the administration, holding the scientific arguments constant. Despite the EPA’s independence, out-group administration reduces support for the spraying by 26%, lowers trust in the EPA’s evaluation, and increases donations to an NGO opposing the spraying by 15%. We find no overall effect on the willingness to pay for citrus products, measured in an obfuscated follow-up survey. However, we document significant differences in effects for elastic vs. inelastic consumers. Taken together, polarization has the potential to affect economic decisions. However, a reduction in trust might not translate into lower demand, especially for inelastic consumers. JEL Codes: D12 ; D83 ; P16 ; Q11 ; Q13 ; Q18 ; Z18 |
| Keywords: | political polarization ; civil service ; trust in regulation ; trust in science ; food policy ; partisan identity ; consumer demand |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1542 |
| By: | Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea; Mr. Leonardo Martinez; Jorge Restrepo |
| Abstract: | This guide presents the analytical underpinnings and a manual for the Public Debt Dynamics Tool with Gross Financing Needs (DDT_GFN), an extension of the Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT). The DDT projects public debt as percent of GDP under a baseline and alternative scenarios. The DDT_GFN presents debt-to-GDP projections and the corresponding public gross financing needs (GFN)-to-GDP projections for all DDT scenarios, including fan charts for both public debt and GFN. The DDT_GFN also computes fiscal adjustment paths for a user defined GFN target and adjustment period. Twelve often publicly available macrofiscal variables are needed to perform a rich analysis of public debt and GFN dynamics. The DDT_GFN was developed by the IMF Institute for Capacity Development to be used for its capacity development work on macroeconomic frameworks for forecasting and policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | Public gross financing needs; public debt dynamics; local- and foreign-currency debt; fiscal adjustment paths; Public Debt Dynamics Tool; DDT; DDT_GFN; dynamics tool; data input; public debt projection; adjustment scenario; data IMF Library; Fiscal stance; Foreign currency debt; Local currency debt; Fiscal consolidation |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imftnm:2025/001 |
| By: | Laura Recuero Virto (PULV - Pôle Universitaire Léonard de Vinci); Adrien Comte (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - IUEM - Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Linwood Pendleton (UBO - Université de Brest, WWF - World Wide Fund, Global Change Institute (Australia)) |
| Abstract: | Although they provide essential services to local populations, coral reefs are threatened by the impacts of a multitude of human activities. Through the notions of social and ecological vulnerability of socio-ecosystems dependent on coral reefs, it is possible to develop a risk management framework that enables us to identify and prioritize the issues at stake. In other words, the human, economic and environmental value of elements exposed to the risks of adverse events. This framework makes it possible to assess the possibilities for actions that lead either to reducing vulnerability by reducing hazard or exposure, or that lead to reinforcing response or adaptation capacity. In this policy brief, we explain the concepts of social and ecological vulnerability, and share examples of indicators for assessing and monitoring them, as well as examples of their use in identifying action plans. |
| Abstract: | Alors qu'ils fournissent des services essentiels aux populations locales, les récifs coralliens sont menacés par les impacts d'une multitude d'activités humaines. À travers les notions de vulnérabilité sociale et écologique des socio-écosystèmes dépendant des récifs coralliens, il est possible de développer un cadre de gestion de risques qui permet d'identifier et de hiérarchiser les enjeux. Autrement dit la valeur humaine, économique et environnementale des éléments exposés aux risques d'événements défavorables. Ce cadre permet d'évaluer les possibilités d'action qui conduisent soit à réduire la vulnérabilité en réduisant l'aléa ou l'exposition, soit à renforcer la capacité de réponse ou d'adaptation. Dans ce policy brief, nous expliquons les concepts de vulnérabilité sociale et écologique, nous partageons des exemples d'indicateurs pour assurer leur évaluation et leur suivi ainsi que des exemples d'usage de ces derniers pour la caractérisation de plans d'action. |
| Keywords: | Récif corallien, Socio-écosystèmes marins, Recommandations politiques, Vulnérabilité écologique, Conservation marine, Environnement marin et côtier, Activités anthropiques, Pressions, DPSIR, Directive-cadre sur le milieu marin |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04851832 |
| By: | Santos Bila; Utkarsh Kumar; Alexis Meyer-Cirkel |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the use of tax policy as industrial policy in Mozambique. Despite significant foregone tax revenue due to industrial policy in the form of tax incentives, the effectiveness of Mozambique's tax policy remains questionable due to insufficient data and unclear public policy strategy. Through an examination of macro data, tax reports, and data from World Bank Enterprise Surveys, the note underscores the need for a thorough reassessment of existing tax measures. It advocates for a more strategic, targeted and evidence-based design of tax incentives that deliver on industrial policy goals. |
| Keywords: | Tax Policy; Industrial Policy; Mozambique; Tax Incentives; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Revenue Mobilization; Market Distortions; Fiscal Expenditure; Domestic Investment |
| Date: | 2025–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/010 |
| By: | Pezeshknejad, Parsa; Palm, Matthew; Rowangould, Dana |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic significantly impacted transit ridership across Canada. As the pandemic begins to subside, understanding the factors that influence peoples’ decisions to use transit (or not) is crucial for the recovery and long-term sustainability of public transit. Using data from the third wave of the Public Transit and Covid-19 survey in Canada, this study evaluates who returned to pre-pandemic transit use, the factors influencing the decision to ride transit, and peoples’ intentions for future transit use. The authors find that most transit riders perceive that the pandemic is over but its effects are here to stay, though they are split about whether the pandemic still affects their transit use. While some transit riders have gradually returned to pre-pandemic transit levels, a relatively small share of those who have not yet fully returned intend to and a significant proportion do not intend to fully return. About half of transit riders will return to transit at a lower usage level than before the pandemic, while about 10% do not intend to return at all. The results indicate that in the “new normal”, transit use will remain below pre-pandemic levels for those who rode transit before the pandemic. Factors such as car access are significantly related to the extent to which people have returned to transit, although this may be reflecting a shift away from transit rather than causing the shift. Factors such as easy access to transit stops, service frequency, and proximity to home and job locations influence current transit use. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Covid-19 pandemic, Transit ridership, Public transit, Post-pandemic |
| Date: | 2023–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6490r620 |
| By: | Sundaravalli Narayanaswami |
| Abstract: | This paper examines India’s gold trade dynamics in the context of expectations of a rise in customs duty rates in the Union Budget 2025-26. The persistent demand for physical gold in India, which has remained inelastic over time, is largely met through imports due to limited domestic sources. The Government of India has attempted to regulate gold imports through customs duty adjustments, but our findings reveal that such measures have limited long-term effectiveness. Instead, higher rates encourage imports which utilise multi-duty structures. We argue for a structural shift in policy, including eliminating duty differential for all gold-based commodities, fostering strategic mining partnerships with resource-rich nations, and introducing short-term tax amnesty schemes to monetize household gold holdings. Furthermore, our analysis emphasizes the need to complement import management strategies with efforts to enhance exports, particularly in the gems and jewellery sector, which faces significant structural challenges. |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14719 |
| By: | Aziz Ajbilou; Karim El Aynaoui |
| Abstract: | En utilisant des données, disponibles, provenant des recensements et enquêtes réalisés par le Haut- commissariat au plan (HCP), le ministère de la Santé, et l’Observatoire national du développent humain (ONDH), cet article se propose d’étudier les changements dans le temps connus par la fécondité au Maroc. La tendance qui se dégage de l’évolution récente de ce phénomène est qu’il enregistre, depuis 2010, une sorte de stagnation, voire une légère reprise. Une tendance qui semble être un peu plus prononcée dans les villes, puisque la fécondité des citadines, qui avait atteint 1, 8 enfant par femme en 2010, a enregistré 2, 2 enfants par femme en 2019. En revanche, en milieu rural, la fécondité a continué à baisser jusqu’à 2014 pour atteindre 2, 5 enfants par femme. Elle marque, ensuite, une légère reprise pour atteindre 2, 7 enfants par femme en 2019. Cette reprise a été accompagnée d’une baisse de l’âge au premier mariage chez les femmes. Une baisse observée aussi bien chez les femmes instruites que chez les moins instruites, chez celles qui habitent en milieu urbain que celles qui habitent en milieu rural. Avec un taux de prévalence contraceptive qui avoisine les 70 %. Selon les dernières données disponibles, cette nouvelle tendance de l’un des facteurs déterminants de la fécondité, qui est l’âge au premier mariage, n’a pas manqué d’influencer le comportement procréateur des couples en faveur d’une légère augmentation de leur fécondité. Ce qui est surprenant, c’est que cette reprise de la fécondité se fait parallèlement à une expansion de la scolarisation chez les filles. Une expansion qui se heurte, en revanche, aux freins liés à l’accès des femmes à l’exercice d’une activité économique en dehors de la sphère familiale. Cette situation pourrait être à l’origine de la baisse de l’âge au premier mariage et, par conséquent, de la reprise observée en matière de fécondité. S’il est très tôt pour se prononcer clairement sur le caractère permanent ou temporaire de cette évolution, il est, néanmoins, certain que les normes sociales et culturelles de l’institution familiale marocaine d’aujourd’hui, de même que les conditions économiques et sociales des couples sont loin d’être favorables à une fécondité relativement élevée. L’exploitation de la question sur le nombre moyen idéal d’enfants désirés par des femmes non-célibataires et souhaités pour leurs filles, lors de l’enquête réalisée sur la population et la santé familiale en 2018, donnerait un nombre moyen d’enfants par femme qui fluctuerait autour 2, 5. Cet inversement de tendance de la fécondité n’est pas propre au Maroc. Il a été observé également dans d’autres pays arabes tels que l’Algérie, l’Égypte et la Tunisie. La reprise de ce phénomène demeure, néanmoins, relativement modérée au Maroc, comparée à celle observée particulièrement en Algérie et en Égypte. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_13_24_0 |
| By: | Abdul Rahim, Mohamad Syafiqe |
| Abstract: | One of the essential conditions to conclude al-Rahn (pledge) contract is to ensure that the pledged asset (Mal al-Marhun) is available during contract execution. The absence of this aspect may trigger the issue of Gharar (uncertainty) which would affect the validity of al-Rahn contract. This paper will look into the application of al-Rahn contract under debenture structure where the asset used as security for the debenture may include future asset which shall only be determined during crystallisation stage. The analysis will focus on the concept of Gharar and whether the issue of non existence of pledged asset may tantamount to element of excessive Gharar which is prohibited under Islamic commercial law (Fiqh al-Muamalah). |
| Keywords: | Rahn, Debenture, Future Asset, Gharar, Shariah |
| JEL: | G02 K0 |
| Date: | 2025–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123046 |
| By: | Katie Bollman; Benjamin Hansen; Edward A. Rubin; Garrett O. Stanford |
| Abstract: | Using Measure 114’s narrow passage in Oregon as a natural experiment, we study how new gun regulations affect firearm demand. Background checks, a proxy for demand, rose 13.9% in anticipation of the referendum and surged 157% immediately following the election. After judicial intervention halted the law’s enactment, demand returned near pre-election levels. Temporal displacement/harvesting does not explain the demand spike: after eighteen months, we still observe a substantial cumulative increase of 63, 000 excess firearm-related background checks. Administrative data reveal significant county-level heterogeneity. This evidence underscores the paradoxical effect of gun-control policies, offering a cautionary lesson to policymakers. |
| JEL: | H8 I18 I28 K23 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33360 |
| By: | Qian Yu; Zhen Xu; Zong Ke |
| Abstract: | In the context of globalization and the rapid expansion of the digital economy, anti-money laundering (AML) has become a crucial aspect of financial oversight, particularly in cross-border transactions. The rising complexity and scale of international financial flows necessitate more intelligent and adaptive AML systems to combat increasingly sophisticated money laundering techniques. This paper explores the application of unsupervised learning models in cross-border AML systems, focusing on rule optimization through contrastive learning techniques. Five deep learning models, ranging from basic convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to hybrid CNNGRU architectures, were designed and tested to assess their performance in detecting abnormal transactions. The results demonstrate that as model complexity increases, so does the system's detection accuracy and responsiveness. In particular, the self-developed hybrid Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Integration Model (CRNIM) model showed superior performance in terms of accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). These findings highlight the potential of unsupervised learning models to significantly improve the intelligence, flexibility, and real-time capabilities of AML systems. By optimizing detection rules and enhancing adaptability to emerging money laundering schemes, this research provides both theoretical and practical contributions to the advancement of AML technologies, which are essential for safeguarding the global financial system against illicit activities. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.07027 |
| By: | Bassirou Niang (UIDT - Université Iba Der Thiam [Thiès]) |
| Abstract: | Déclaration de divulgation : L'auteur n'a pas connaissance de quelconque financement qui pourrait affecter l'objectivité de cette étude. Conflit d'intérêts : L'auteur ne signale aucun conflit d'intérêts. |
| Keywords: | Dr Bassirou NIANG Work organization -Social performance -Small and Medium Tourism Enterprises |
| Date: | 2023–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04852931 |
| By: | Heidt, Lukas; Gauger, Felix; Pfnür, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Work from home or teleworking, continues to expand not least due to the COVID-19-crisis and poses challenges for employees and companies. In uncertain and dynamic times, organisations wonder what skills make employees successful when working from home and which measures support employees. By performing in-depth research that addresses employee agility as skills and capabilities, a research framework is proposed. Based on an international survey of employees working from home during the COVID-19-crisis (N = 1, 016), the impact of agile work characteristics on work from home success and the mediating effect (accounting for 48% of the total effect) of tailored support measures by HRM were investigated. The results of the mediation analysis show that agile work characteristics have a direct, positive and significant effect on the success of working from home. Part of the effect is explained by HRM measures as a mediator. The findings contribute to the research stream of dynamic capabilities by applying the theory to working from home. The comparatively simple research model provides companies with information on how they can best support employees in the dynamics of a crisis and the expansion of work from home and, therefore, has high relevance for practitioners. |
| Date: | 2025–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:152435 |