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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Daeha Cho (Hanyang University); Eunseong Ma (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This study quantitatively assesses both the aggregate and disaggregate effects of inflation-indexed loan contracts using a heterogeneous agentNewKeynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Substituting real for nominal government bonds reduces the volatility of output and inflation and decreases the frequency of ZLB events. Real loans sever the link between real interest rates and inflation, preventing a rise in real interest rates at the ZLB. Accordingly, ZLB events become less costly, weakening precautionary savings against aggregate risk. This leads to higher average nominal rates and a reduced frequency of ZLB occurrences, further reducing aggregate volatility. Although inflation indexation improves aggregate welfare, at the disaggregate level, the wealthy lose while the poor gain. Inflation indexation outperforms suggested policies aimed at providing more room for monetary policy, such as increasing the inflation target and implementing an asymmetric Taylor rule. |
| Keywords: | Zero lower bound, HANK model, Inflation indexation, Welfare |
| JEL: | D31 E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2024rwp-233 |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Aidan Caplan; Tristan Caplan |
| Abstract: | This paper documents heterogeneity in work from home (WFH) across six U.S. data sets. These surveys agree that pre-pandemic differences in WFH rates by sex, education, and state of residence expanded following the Covid-19 outbreak. The surveys also show similar post-pandemic trends in WFH by firm size and industry. We show that an industry's WFH potential was highly correlated with actual WFH during the first year or two of the Covid-19 pandemic, but that this correlation was much weaker before and after the pandemic, suggesting that WFH potential is a necessary but not sufficient determinant in the decision to WFH. |
| Keywords: | work from home; remote work; telecommuting; commuting; data set comparisons |
| JEL: | I18 J21 J22 J24 L23 |
| Date: | 2024–12–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:99270 |
| By: | Echenique, Federico; He, Kevin |
| Abstract: | We show that adding noise before publishing data effectively screens [Formula: see text]-hacked findings: spurious explanations produced by fitting many statistical models (data mining). Noise creates baits that affect two types of researchers differently. Uninformed [Formula: see text]-hackers, who are fully ignorant of the true mechanism and engage in data mining, often fall for baits. Informed researchers, who start with an ex ante hypothesis, are minimally affected. We show that as the number of observations grows large, dissemination noise asymptotically achieves optimal screening. In a tractable special case where the informed researchers theory can identify the true causal mechanism with very few data, we characterize the optimal level of dissemination noise and highlight the relevant trade-offs. Dissemination noise is a tool that statistical agencies currently use to protect privacy. We argue this existing practice can be repurposed to screen [Formula: see text]-hackers and thus improve research credibility. |
| Keywords: | dissemination noise, p-hacking, privacy, research integrity |
| Date: | 2024–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt6sm4w1jf |
| By: | Luca Papi (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR) |
| Abstract: | Con il recente, rapido e inatteso ritorno dell'inflazione, in gran parte dei principali paesi, si è assistito all'abbandono del quantitative easing (QE) e al passaggio ad una nuova fase restrittiva della politica monetaria manifestatosi con l'aumento dei tassi di interesse e lo smantellamento di parte dei titoli detenuti dalle banche centrali (quantitative tightening QT). Ne sono risultate perdite ingenti senza precedenti nei bilanci delle banche centrali. Questo paper offre una rassegna delle implicazioni economiche delle suddette perdite partendo da una discussione sulle diverse pratiche contabili e sulle diverse regole che determinano le rimesse delle banche centrali a favore dei tesori nazionali. L'analisi delle conseguenze delle perdite delle banche centrali viene poi proposta con riferimento ad un intero ciclo di QE e QT e si conclude fornendo una serie di raccomandazioni per arginare le perdite delle banche centrali nelle politiche monetarie non convenzionali. The recent rapid and unexpected return of inflation in most major countries has seen the abandonment of quantitative easing (QE) and the transition to a new phase of restrictive monetary policy manifested by the increase of interest rates and the dismantling of part of the securities held by central banks (quantitative tightening QT). This has resulted in unprecedented large losses by central banks. This paper provides an overview of the economic implications of these losses starting from a discussion of the different accounting practices and rules that determine central bank remittances to national treasuries. The analysis of the consequences of central bank losses is then proposed with reference to a whole cycle of QE and QT and concludes by providing a series of recommendations to limit central bank losses in unconventional monetary policies. |
| Keywords: | Banche centrali, politica monetaria, Quantitative Easing (QE), Quantitative Tightening (QT) |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:492 |
| By: | Josep Dols-Miro (Universitat de Valencia) |
| Abstract: | Este estudio presenta la Spanish Banker Database (SBDb), una base de datos original que documenta la composicion de los consejos de administracion de las entidades bancarias españolas desde 1974. Esta permite analizar como han evolucionado los organos de gobierno en el sistema financiero español durante y despues del proceso de desregulacion y liberalizacion economica. La base de datos clasifica a los consejeros en tres categorias principales –banqueros, empresarios y politicos– y se nutre de fuentes como los anuarios de la AEB, CECA y UNACC, la base de datos SABI y los portales de transparencia gubernamentales. Los resultados muestran que los bancos cuentan con consejos de administracion mas pequeños y experimentados, con una menor presencia de politicos, mientras que las cajas de ahorros y cooperativas presentan consejos mas grandes, menos experimentados y con mayor representacion publica. Asimismo, se identifican transformaciones significativas derivadas de reformas legales tras momentos clave, como la crisis bancaria de 1977, la promulgacion de la Ley 35/1985 –que incremento la presencia de políticos en las cajas de ahorros– y la crisis financiera de 2008, que reconfiguro la estructura de los consejos. Tambien se observa un aumento en la representacion femenina en los consejos a partir de la decada de 1990, impulsado por los cambios normativos. En definitiva, la evolucion de los organos de gobierno en las entidades financieras españolas esta profundamente vinculada a los cambios regulatorios, los cuales han moldeado su configuracion y dinamicas internas, con especial impacto en las cajas de ahorros. |
| Keywords: | España, Historia bancaria, Regulacion, Gobierno Corporativo |
| JEL: | N24 N20 G18 G34 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bci:wpaper:2405 |
| By: | Mariana Prats; Sina Smid; Monica Ferrin |
| Abstract: | Global trends such as decreasing public trust, political polarisation and increasing mis- and disinformation have sparked interest in understanding the impact of a lack of trust on democracies. This paper provides an analysis on the socioeconomic characteristics, perceptions of political voice and forms of political engagement of individuals who express a lack of trust in public institutions, with the objective of understanding the impacts of lack of trust on democratic governance and identifying governments’ actions to engage citizens in policymaking. The paper draws on data from the OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions (OECD Trust Survey), first carried out between November 2021 and March 2022 across 22 OECD countries and can serve as basis for further analysis of data collected through new rounds of the OECD Trust Survey. |
| Keywords: | OECD Trust Survey, Political attitudes, Political engagement, Trust in public institutions |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaaa:75-en |
| By: | Jean-Michel Benkert, Igor Letina |
| Abstract: | We provide a model of investment in innovation that is dynamic, features multiple heterogeneous research projects of which only one potentially leads to success, and in each period, the researcher chooses the set of projects to invest in. We show that if a search for innovation starts, it optimally does not end until the innovation is found—which will be never with a strictly positive probability. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Optimal Search, Infinite Horizon |
| JEL: | D83 O31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2410 |
| By: | Suzanne M. Dorinski |
| Abstract: | Researchers have long noted that young children are undercounted in the Decennial Census. Recent efforts have focused on trying to find young children in administrative records to compensate for the undercount. The Annual Administrative Population Estimates (AAPE) project has used records of births from Numident with Protected Identification Keys (PIKs) that are not observed elsewhere in administrative records to increase the coverage of young children. The young children are not yet observed elsewhere due to the tax code effect. This note shows the counts of Numident births by month for the last 3 full months of each Numident file from 2015 through 2021 Q3 compared to the National Center for Health Statistics count of births to US residents during those same months. This note also includes a graphic of young children by source in the AAPE 2020 file, focusing on those born in November 2019 through February 2020. |
| Keywords: | Numident, Demographic Frame |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:24-11 |
| By: | Peter Cotton |
| Abstract: | Despite many attempts to make optimization-based portfolio construction in the spirit of Markowitz robust and approachable, it is far from universally adopted. Meanwhile, the collection of more heuristic divide-and-conquer approaches was revitalized by Lopez de Prado where Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) was introduced. This paper reveals the hidden connection between these seemingly disparate approaches. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.05807 |
| By: | Gabriela Chmelikova (Department of Regional and Business Economics, Faculty of Regional Development and International Studies, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Renata Kucerova (Department of Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Helena Chladkova (Department of Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Jindrich Spicka (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of the institutional business environment with favourable conditions for conducting business in the process of the EU transition towards sustainability. We draw on the theory of institutional economics and empirically investigate our overarching research question as to which extent the conditions conducive to do business are linked to increased levels of irresponsible corporate behaviour in the EU.. Pursuing an econometric approach, we test a set of hypotheses using various measures of favourable conditions for conducting business as drivers for corporate social irresponsibility. We build a unique dataset that includes observations of irresponsible corporate behaviour in 16 EU countries over the period 2015 – 2020. Our findings show that institutions conducive to support the ease of doing business lead to an increased ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) crime rate measured by the share of firms acting irresponsibly and that the intensity of past ESG incidents is associated with a lower current occurrence of offences against sustainability. Our conclusion could help drive progress toward sustainability by the recommendation to orient policies more toward countries with attractive business environments, as they tend to harbour a concentration of the most harmful firms. Further, it is recommended to harmonise corporate tax rates and other business conditions across EU member states. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Social Irresponsibility, Institutional Economics, Attractive Business Environments, Sustainability, ESG |
| JEL: | K42 L51 M14 O17 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:97_2024 |
| By: | Korn, Tobias; Lacroix, Jean |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that amid aggregate gains, market integration generates within sector reallocation. To measure this effect, we collected new data on personal bankruptcies during the rail expansion in 19th century Britain. Our estimators leverage within geography-time and within sector-time variation to measure sector-specific effects of the rail on both employment and bankruptcies. A connection to railway increased bankruptcies only in the manufacturing sector, despite simultaneously increasing employment in that sector. Both a three-way fixed effects and a Least Cost Path approach validate the causality of our estimates. We further show that organizational changes that occurred in the manufacturing sector upon market integration explain our results: Firms expanded, self-employment decreased, occupations diversified; overall, the nature of labour changed. This biased growth of the manufacturing sector caused financial distress for some of its workers. |
| Keywords: | Bankruptcies, Economic Growth, Structural transformation |
| JEL: | N63 L16 O33 R40 K35 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-731 |
| By: | Claire Mollier (EconomiX, Paris Nanterre University, France); Aurora García-Gallego (ICAE and Economics Department, Universidad Complutense de Madrid and LEE and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Tarek Jaber-López (Institute of Public Goods and Policies (IPP), Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Spain); Sarah Zaccagni (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark.) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the competition outcome and the gender of the opponent affect the decision to compete again, using a lab experiment. Our experimental design adopts the strategy method to measure individuals’ reactions to winning or losing. Subjects indicate their willingness to compete again based on performance gaps with their opponents. Furthermore, gender is inferred from participant-selected- names, allowing for an exploration of the role played by the opponent’s gender. We find that all subjects are slightly more willing to compete after winning against a female opponent. Also, it is slightly more likely that they accept to re-compete against a male after winning. Males try significantly more to outperform a female after losing, and this is robust when controlling for gender stereotypes and age. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, gender, feedback, career decisions, lab experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D91 J16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2024/08 |
| By: | Konuray Mutluer |
| Abstract: | I examine the factors that determine whether a grassroots social movement reaches the necessary size to achieve its goal. I study a collective action problem where identical individuals who value the common goal sequentially decide whether to join the movement. The model has two key ingredients: (i) The movement is facing a freeriding problem (i.e., while individuals want the movement to succeed, they would rather have others bear the cost of participation) and (ii) The necessary number of members to achieve success is ex-ante unknown but it can be revealed as the movement grows in size. The central insight is that an increase in cost of participation, such as harsher and more likely punishment for members of the movement, can lead to a drastic surge in membership. |
| Keywords: | Social movements, repression, free-riding, threshold uncertainty, dynamic games |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp791 |
| By: | Beth Hammack |
| Abstract: | The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent at the Committee’s December 17–18, 2024 meeting. Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth M. Hammack regarding her vote, released at 9:00 AM EST. |
| Keywords: | FOMC |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcsp:99281 |
| By: | Teddy Mekonnen; Bobak Pakzad-Hurson |
| Abstract: | An agent engages in sequential search. He does not directly observe the quality of the goods he samples, but he can purchase signals designed by profit maximizing principal(s). We formulate the principal-agent relationship as a repeated contracting problem within a stopping game and characterize the set of equilibrium payoffs. We show that when the agent's search cost falls below a given threshold, competition does not impact how much surplus is generated in equilibrium nor how the surplus is divided. In contrast, competition benefits the agent at the expense of total surplus when the search cost exceeds that threshold. Our results challenge the view that monopoly decreases market efficiency, and moreover, suggest that it generates the highest value of information for the agent. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.11183 |
| By: | Fitzenberger, Bernd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; FAU); Schmidtke, Julia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wicht, Leonie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Before the ruling of the German Constitutional Court in November 2019, benefit sanctions played a significantly larger role in the means-tested basic income support than they do today. Previous research focused on implemented benefit sanctions, i.e., actual reductions in means-tested basic income support benefits. However, these reductions are necessarily preceded by an event that triggers the sanction (referred to as the sanction event) and the formal determination to impose the sanction. Using administrative data from the Statistical Unit of the Federal Employment Agency, this Short Policy Report examines the timeline following sanction events in the first half of 2018." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202423 |
| By: | Nadia Gui\~naz\'u; Noelia Juarez; Pablo Neme; Jorge Oviedo |
| Abstract: | This paper presents weakened notions of corewise stability and setwise stability for matching markets where agents have substitutable choice functions. We introduce the concepts of worker-quasi-core, firm-quasi-core, and worker-quasisetwise stability. We also examine their relationship to established notions in the literature, such as worker-quasi and firm-quasi stability in both many-to-one and many-to-many markets. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.12533 |