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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Martín Uribe |
| Abstract: | The neo-Fisher effect and the central bank information (CBI) effect produce similar outcomes: under both, a monetary tightening triggers an increase in inflation and an expansion in real activity. Separate estimates of these effects run the risk of confounding one with the other. To disentangle these two channels, we introduce into a new-Keynesian model a permanent monetary shock that generates neo-Fisher effects and an aggregate demand shock to which the central bank responds that creates CBI effects. We estimate the model on U.S. data. We find that the neo-Fisherian shock is an important driver of inflation, while the CBI shock explains a significant fraction of movements in the nominal interest rate. The CBI shock explains little of inflation and output, but, through counterfactual exercises, we establish that this reflects the central bank's success in isolating the economy from aggregate demand disturbances. These results are shown to hold under full and imperfect information. |
| JEL: | E3 E5 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33136 |
| By: | Nane Davtyan |
| Abstract: | The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized consumer behavior analysis and digital marketing strategies by enabling personalized and efficient data-driven approaches. AI-driven tools like predictive analytics, natural language processing (NLP), machine learning, and programmatic advertising allow marketers to process vast amounts of real-time consumer data, facilitating optimized campaign performance and precise targeting. This paper explores the integration of AI in marketing, highlighting its role in enhancing predictive analytics, sentiment analysis, and real-time segmentation. Compared to traditional methods, AI-driven insights significantly improve engagement, accuracy, and return on investment (ROI). AI also plays a vital role in marketing automation, allowing dynamic adjustments in campaigns, ad placements, and content creation, improving efficiency and reducing costs. However, AI’s reliance on consumer data raises concerns regarding data privacy and algorithmic bias, especially in targeting. This paper stresses the importance of ensuring transparency, fairness, and regular audits in AI systems to maintain consumer trust and promote ethical AI use. Future research directions are discussed, focusing on enhancing transparency and algorithmic accountability while navigating the ethical challenges of AI in marketing. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence (AI), Consumer behavior analysis, Digital marketing, Predictive analytics, Natural language processing (NLP) |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfv:sbsrec:005 |
| By: | TUKKER Arnold; RUEDA CANTUCHE Jose Manuel (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Existing forward-looking models such as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), Energy models, and (Computable) General Equilibrium (GE) models work well for assessing energy and climate problems. But such top-down, usually economy-wide models have limited sector resolution. They cannot assess highly product specific circular economy (CE) strategies such as component re-use, refurbishment, or high quality material recycling. This requires detailed physical systems modelling. Material Flow Analysis (MFA) and Life cycle assessment/costing (LCA/LCC) offer this detail and physical basis. But these mainly physical, partial and static bottom-up models lack the economy-wide socio-economic impact assessment capabilities and endogenized dynamic features of e.g. GE models. We propose here a hybrid approach as solution. GE models with an Input Output (IO) core could be used as a basis, at a state of the art detail of 100-150 sectors/products and over150 countries, preferably backed by a (consortium of) international institutions to provide formal status. Higher detail, physical layers, and sectoral capital stock vintage information may be provided in a research context. Detailed bottom-up MFA and LCA/LCC assessments are then to be hard- or soft-linked to the IO core of the GE model. Even then questions remain as how CE interventions may induce changes in value added capturing in economic networks, stimulate diffusion of new technologies, and limit damages of environmental change on the economy. Additional qualitative and quantitative assessments can help to include such effects exogenously in a GE model. The fallacy of modelling the future based on historical trends can be overcome by using models in a back casting rather than forecasting mode. Models then are used to check under which conditions pathways to normatively desired futures can be realized. This approach allows assessing the social, economic and environmental impacts of CE policies comprehensively, and hence how CE can support the transition to a fair and sustainable economy. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139498 |
| By: | Yokoo, Hide-Fumi (Hitotsubashi University); KUBO, Takahiro (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)); Kunii, Daisuke; Sasaki, Hiroki |
| Abstract: | If a government highlighted the first producer to adopt green technology, how would the remaining producers react? This study is the first attempt to evaluate the impact of a message sent by the government to an industry about a first mover in climate action. Among 374 wineries in Japan, randomly selected half received a message mentioning the winery that was an early adopter of renewable energy. We then observed whether other wineries participated in webinars on carbon footprint measurement to collect information. We find that this message about climate leadership did not encourage the wineries to participate in the webinar, and it even had a negative effect on nearby wineries. We interpret these results as reflecting both the strategic decisions of competing wineries and the adverse psychological effects of the message. This preregistered experiment suggests that we must be cautious when designing policies to honor first movers on the supply side. |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hbzun |
| By: | Bosworth, Steven J. (University of Reading); Della Giusta, Marina (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | What explains the persistent under-representation of women at the top organizations within high status occupations? The phenomenon has been documented across countries and neither the closing and reversal of education gaps nor family policies appear effective in closing the gaps. We offer an explanation for the persistence of under-representation based on the mutually reinforcing dynamics resulting from returns to organizational prestige at top organizations (The Matthew Effect) and gender stereotypes in hiring arising from the imperfectly observable ability of workers (The Larry Effect). Our model predicts that when organizational prestige is important and complementary to ability in production, fewer women will be found and hired at higher status organizations, there will be a wage premium for both women and men when they move to them but a greater proportion of men will succeed in doing so, regardless of ability. An aggregate level gender wage gap is thus generated from between-organization wage differences and segregation of women and men to lower- and higher-status organizations respectively. We test the predictions of the model in academia where recognized measures of prestige exist and Matthew effects are well documented. We make use of an employer-employee administrative panel comprising the universe of UK academics and find evidence consistent with the model's predictions: persistence of women's under-representation in higher status organizations and a wage premium for moving of about 3 percent for both women and men. |
| Keywords: | prestige, stereotypes, discrimination |
| JEL: | C78 J31 J70 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17460 |
| By: | SAHOO Amarendra (European Commission - JRC); NECHIFOR Victor (European Commission - JRC); FERRARI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); FERREIRA Valeria; AMANY Damit Serge Didier |
| Abstract: | Increasing port efficiencies could enhance economic growth, with a positive impact on both exports and imports, resulting in GDP gains and reduced poverty rates in Senegal. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139361 |
| By: | Pina-Sánchez, Jose (University of Leeds); Hamilton, Melissa; Tennant, Peter WG |
| Abstract: | To minimise confounding bias and facilitate the identification of unwarranted disparities, sentencing researchers have traditionally sought to control for as many legal factors as possible. In this article we challenge such approach. Using causal graphs we show how controlling for commonly used variables in the sentencing literature can introduce bias. Instead, we propose a new modelling framework that clarifies which types of controls are necessary to identify different definitions of sentencing disparities. We apply this framework to the estimation of race disparities in the US federal courts and gender disparities in the England and Wales magistrates’ court. We find that the model uncertainty associated to the choice of controls is substantial for gender disparities and for race disparities affecting Hispanic offenders, rendering estimates of the latter inconclusive. Disparities against black offenders are more consistent, although, they are not strong enough to be seen as definitive evidence of racial discrimination. |
| Date: | 2024–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ymzsv |
| By: | KATTEL Rainer; SOETE Luc |
| Abstract: | European policymakers face difficult trade-offs when aiming to increase economic growth and industrial competitiveness, stepping up efforts in green and digital economies, and coming to terms with new security realities requiring increased investments. As European and several national elections in 2024 have shown, this is not an easy circle to square. This paper makes an argument for the European Union to develop a coherent and overarching approach to security investments aligned with the current green and digital agendas and based on a broadening of two of Europe’s unique, long-standing policy frameworks. The first is the area of research and innovation policy, where the nature of the multi-level governance between the EU and its Member States has been one of “shared parallel competence”, implying that EU Member States can carry out national science and research policies in parallel to the EU. This institutional set-up offers the opportunity to broaden, in a relatively straightforward way, the current European Research and Innovation Area (ERA) into a European Defence Research and Innovation Area (EDRIA). The second framework is the EU’s regional, so-called cohesion policy, which could be described as Europe’s “secret” weapon. The integration of security issues into European regional policies represents, in the current insecure international geo-political environment, a logical, new expression of intra-regional European solidarity, and offers the opportunity to enlarge current cohesion policy towards a European territorial security policy. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc139401 |
| By: | Lidia Cano Pecharroman; Melissa O. Tier; Elke U. Weber |
| Abstract: | Efforts are needed to identify and measure both communities' exposure to climate hazards and the social vulnerabilities that interact with these hazards, but the science of validating hazard vulnerability indicators is still in its infancy. Progress is needed to improve: 1) the selection of variables that are used as proxies to represent hazard vulnerability; 2) the applicability and scale for which these indicators are intended, including their transnational applicability. We administered an international urban survey in Buenos Aires, Argentina; Johannesburg, South Africa; London, United Kingdom; New York City, United States; and Seoul, South Korea in order to collect data on exposure to various types of extreme weather events, socioeconomic characteristics commonly used as proxies for vulnerability (i.e., income, education level, gender, and age), and additional characteristics not often included in existing composite indices (i.e., queer identity, disability identity, non-dominant primary language, and self-perceptions of both discrimination and vulnerability to flood risk). We then use feature importance analysis with gradient-boosted decision trees to measure the importance that these variables have in predicting exposure to various types of extreme weather events. Our results show that non-traditional variables were more relevant to self-reported exposure to extreme weather events than traditionally employed variables such as income or age. Furthermore, differences in variable relevance across different types of hazards and across urban contexts suggest that vulnerability indicators need to be fit to context and should not be used in a one-size-fits-all fashion. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.10628 |
| By: | Fernandez, Mailen; Errea, Damián; Lacaze, María Victoria |
| Abstract: | El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar y aplicar distintos métodos de desagregación temporal a series económicas de baja frecuencia de los sectores agrícola, financiero y de la construcción del Municipio de General Pueyrredon para el intervalo temporal 2004-2022, es decir, a partir del año base de la última serie de PBG disponible. El estudio generó series de alta frecuencia de los sectores productivos antes mencionados, cuya incorporación a la estructura de ponderación del ISAE-GP fue posteriormente evaluada (y concretada). Además, la investigación contribuyó a estructurar criterios metodológicos para la selección de variables de alta frecuencia que se utilizan como referencias o patrones de desagregación, cuando existen alternativas. |
| Keywords: | Series Temporales; Métodos de Desagregación; Datos Estadísticos; Actividad Económica; Partido de General Pueyrredon; |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4215 |
| By: | Hanbat Jeong |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel spatial interaction model to explore the decision-making processes of two types of agents-a leader and followers-with central and local governments serving as empirical representations. The model accounts for three key features: (i) resource allocations from the leader to the followers and the resulting strategic interactions, (ii) followers' choices across multiple activities, and (iii) interactions among these activities. We develop a network game to examine the micro-foundations of these processes. In this game, followers engage in multiple activities, while the leader allocates resources by monitoring the externalities arising from followers' interactions. The game's unique NE is the foundation for our econometric framework, providing equilibrium measures to understand the short-term impacts of changes in followers' characteristics and their long-term consequences. To estimate the agent payoff parameters, we employ the QML estimation method and examine the asymptotic properties of the QML estimator to ensure robust statistical inferences. Empirically, we investigate interactions among U.S. states in public welfare expenditures (PWE) and housing and community development expenditures (HCDE), focusing on how federal grants influence these expenditures and the interactions among state governments. Our findings reveal positive spillovers in states' PWEs, complementarity between the two expenditures within states, and negative cross-variable spillovers between them. Additionally, we observe positive effects of federal grants on both expenditures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that federal interventions lead to a 6.46% increase in social welfare by increasing the states' efforts on PWE and HCDE. However, due to the limited flexibility in federal grants, their magnitudes are smaller than the proportion of federal grants within the states' total revenues. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.13810 |
| By: | Bram De Rock (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Florine Le Henaff (European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics) |
| Date: | 2023–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:23/34 |
| By: | Gayani Rathnayake; Akanksha Negi; Otavio Bartalotti; Xueyan Zhao |
| Abstract: | Endogenous treatment and sample selection are two concomitant sources of endogeneity that challenge the validity of causal inference. In this paper, we focus on the partial identification of treatment effects within a standard two-period difference-in-differences framework when the outcome is observed for an endogenously selected subpopulation. The identification strategy embeds Lee's (2009) bounding approach based on principal stratification, which divides the population into latent subgroups based on selection behaviour in counterfactual treatment states in both periods. We establish identification results for four latent types and illustrate the proposed approach by applying it to estimate 1) the effect of a job training program on earnings and 2) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.09221 |
| By: | Işıklı, Ebru (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | This article examines why personality, rather than credentials, became a key performance indicator in Turkey’s labor market during the early 2000s. The study draws on interview data from recruitment specialists in Istanbul. It addresses a theoretical gap by challenging existing explanations, which typically argue that behavior is either a requirement for client-facing roles in the service sector or a signal of cultural capital to secure desirable jobs. The findings show that demand for specific behaviors has expanded beyond service sector, positioning behavior as a key performance indicator across the labor market for labor control. |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:afe52 |
| By: | Rafi, Dilara |
| Abstract: | The Middle Corridor, a critical trade route connecting Europe and Asia, has gained importance after geopolitical challenges on the alternative routes, the Northern and Southern Corridors. Azerbaijan plays a strategic role in the Middle Corridor, investing in transport infrastructure and fostering regional cooperation. This paper examines Azerbaijan's efforts to enhance its position as a key global transit hub to strengthen its logistical capabilities, contributing to non-oil sector growth and economic diversification. Through regional partnerships, infrastructure projects, and improved multimodal transport systems, the country aims for capitalizing on its strategic location, further integrating into global trade networks. The paper concludes with recommendations for enhancing Azerbaijan's transit potential, emphasizing the need for digital innovations, regulatory reforms, and increased collaboration with corridor countries and global partners. |
| Keywords: | Middle Corridor, multimodal transport, non-oil sector, economic diversification |
| JEL: | R4 |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122499 |
| By: | Robertson, Leon S |
| Abstract: | Previous research on correlates of the Social Progress Index in U.S. states was replicated among 100 countries where data is available. A multiple regression analysis indicates that social progress is correlated strongly to gross domestic product per capita divided by the cost of living and higher scores on a democracy index. Religious commitment, indicated by surveys of daily prayer, is correlated to less social progress. The research literature suggests that religious commitment leads to neglect of the prevention and treatment of diseases and injuries recommended by science, disdain for scientists, and acquiescence to or support of autocratic government. The trend toward autocracy in several democracies may lead to the deterioration of social progress. Increased global warming and the threat of nuclear winter depend disproportionately on the behavior of autocratic leaders in China, Russia, and the U.S. that neglect or deny the need to curb fossil use and express intent to expand their nuclear arsenals. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z3hn4 |
| By: | Kranz, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | We compare heteroskedasticity-robust inference methods with a large-scale Monte Carlo study based on regressions from 155 reproduction packages of leading economic journals. The results confirm established wisdom and uncover new insights. Among well established methods HC2 standard errors with the degree of freedom specification proposed by Bell and McCaffrey (2002) perform best. To further improve the accuracy of t-tests, we propose a novel degree-of-freedom specification based on partial leverages. We also show how HC2 to HC4 standard errors can be refined by more effectively addressing the 15.6% of cases where at least one observation exhibits a leverage of one. |
| Keywords: | hetereoskedasticity, robust standard errors, meta study, replications, degree of freedom correction |
| JEL: | C1 C12 C15 C87 |
| Date: | 2024–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122724 |
| By: | Amaral, Ernesto F. L. (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | Current analyses of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election have tended to: (1) overlook the potential impact of lower voter turnout among Democratic candidates due to their gender and race; (2) blame (or credit) African American, Hispanic, and female voters for increasing their support for Trump; and (3) focus on overall turnout rather than examining turnout rates. I provide some thoughts for this debate, based on overall election results and voter registration information from the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections. |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:gbsdy |
| By: | Lambert, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This research note/paper examines several factors that have been mentioned and debated as determinants of how Britain moves from feudalism to mercantilism and then to capitalism by way of agricultural and industrial innovations and also how it arrives at the cusp of the industrial revolution. Of special interest are somewhat recent conjectures of macroeconomic data, investment estimates, and data on horses, serfs, and slaves of previous centuries that perhaps can better contribute to and add some clarification to the debates over the transition from feudalism to capitalism and the transition from an early form a capitalism or mercantilism to the industrial revolution. The estimates, empirical notes, and exploratory analyses in this paper partially support the Brenner thesis or concept of the transition from feudalism to capitalism and also support the notion that the proceeds of slave sales and slave production provide a substantive portion of British investment amounts leading up to the industrial revolution of the 18th Century. The mainstream economic notions of property rights, thrift, free markets, and free trade are only part of the picture of how Britain achieves economic prominence in the 19th Century. Exploitation of people and animals play a very significant role that has been ignored or minimized in many history and economic history accounts. |
| Keywords: | Baran ratio, economic surplus, investment, slave trade, slavery, serfs, horses, Great Britain |
| JEL: | B51 B52 N13 N33 N44 |
| Date: | 2024–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122644 |
| By: | Elshin, Leonid; Mikhalevich, Polina; Mingulov, Almaz |
| Abstract: | The solution of issues related to the study of the processes of sustainable development of regional-industry systems in the context of the transformation of transnational supply chains is a very relevant research direction in modern economic thought. This, of course, is due to the intensifying sanctions confrontation in recent years, which has escalated in the last decade in the world. In these conditions, the development of methodological tools that allow identifying the possible consequences of such transformations both for the national economy as a whole and for regional-industry complexes in particular becomes a strategically important task. It should be noted that this task cannot be classified as trivial. It requires processing a large volume of statistical data, their systematization, and the construction on this basis of economic and mathematical models that assess the degree of influence of the adjustment of export-import operations on the economic growth of regions and industries. This article is devoted to an attempt to solve this problem and develop methodological tools. The main result of the study is a methodological approach that forms the basis for identifying regional sectors of the economy that are most vulnerable to import supplies and determine the dynamics of economic growth of the region as a whole. Its testing made it possible to identify import-dependent sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan and, on this basis, construct a series of equations that form the basis for developing predictive assessments of the region’s development in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | region; sanctions pressure; import dependence; supply chains; regional systems management; scenario modeling; forecast assessments; sustainable economic development |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122704 |
| By: | RUSSO Margherita; SIMONAZZI Annamaria; CETRULO Armanda |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of technological upgrades and automation, on employment and working conditions in the automotive, sector in Romania, Spain and Germany. Utilising qualitative research methods, the study examines work organisation, job quality, and occupational composition from a gender perspective. The findings of the study exploring the impact of technology, identified main drivers for automation implementation as increased productivity, quality, and reduced manual labour availability. Automation and robotisation have also increased flexibility to cope with the variable composition of final products and the traceability of production processes. Barriers include high costs, technical difficulties, and the need for worker training. It observed that automation can simplify tasks, create new jobs, and increase responsibilities in middle management and team/shift leaders, while potentially reducing worker autonomy and increasing work pace. Positive job quality implications include ergonomics and improved operators' safety. Automation has reduced the number of line operators, while increased maintenance workers, quality control, logistics and indirect labour. The study observed vertical and horizontal gender segregation in hybrid production processes, with advancements towards horizontal gender equality in technologically advanced establishments. Addressing cultural attitudes and technical challenges is crucial for equitable benefits, as both industries currently undergo a transitional phase. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136545 |
| By: | Amarnath, Giriraj (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Development Goals; Indicators; Income; Gender equality; Empowerment; Datasets |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h052647 |
| By: | Usman, Sehrish |
| Abstract: | Who thrives when alimony payments change? Restrictions on spousal alimony influence intra-family economic decisions by altering bargaining positions and raising concerns about post-divorce financial instability. Existing findings on restricted regimes are contradictory and need more clarity on the differential impact across heterogeneous households. This paper explores behavioural adaptations in labour supply and saving decisions of intact married partners in response to amendments in alimony reform in Germany. Using a difference-in-difference framework and longitudinal and retrospective datasets, I show that policy led to increased labour market participation of married women. However, behavioural responses vary significantly depending on the age cohort, family composition, duration of relationship, and income levels. |
| Keywords: | Household Economics, Spousal bargaining, Intra-family Decisions, Saving, Labor Supply, Policy Reform |
| JEL: | D13 D14 J12 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122675 |