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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Jing Cynthia Wu; Yinxi Xie; Ji Zhang |
| Abstract: | We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies—event studies, vector autoregressions, and regional panel regressions using granular data—and establish a null result. The key economic mechanism works through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation through the usual demand channel. We illustrate this negative supply-side channel both theoretically and empirically. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33044 |
| By: | Philipp Heimberger |
| Abstract: | This paper is about fiscal consolidation measures (i.e. tax hikes and government spending cuts motivated by a desire to reduce the fiscal deficit and public debt) in euro area (EA) countries. The focus is on analysing the growth effects of fiscal adjustments as well as their implications for debt sustainability assessments. I discuss the size and composition of fiscal consolidation by distinguishing three periods: the run-up to the EA, when governments faced the Maastricht criteria for joining the monetary union (1992-1998); before and during the recession triggered by the global financial crisis (1999-2009); and the euro crisis (with a specific focus on the 2011-2013 period). The empirical evidence on the growth effects of fiscal consolidation shows that while fiscal adjustments are contractionary, the negative growth effects were particularly strong and persistent during the euro crisis. With regard to the austerity outlook, I show that, beginning in 2025, EA countries are set to implement fiscal consolidations over multiple years so as to meet reformed EU fiscal rules. The adjustment requirements for some member countries are large in historical comparison. The paper argues that the framework for debt sustainability analysis at the heart of the reformed EU fiscal rules downplays the domestic growth impacts of fiscal adjustments and ignores cross-country spill-overs that magnify domestic growth effects. In all likelihood, the reformed framework underestimates the negative growth effects of fiscal consolidation. I conclude that implementing the multi-year fiscal adjustments required to meet EU fiscal rules may not reduce public debt ratios across the EA's member countries, as the European Commission expects, and that the economic and political implications of austerity may complicate the governance of a fragile EA. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation, fiscal multiplier, growth, public debt, euro area |
| JEL: | H30 H63 O47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:109-2024 |
| By: | Yahya Noureddine Noureddine (FSJES - Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economique et Sociales de Mohammedia - UH2MC - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | This research work aims to study the different definitions and concepts of organizational learning within organizations. Several researchers have worked to define organizational learning. However, we have found several works trying to define this concept. Thus, we tried to define the link between organizational learning and its sources, namely the environment, the work of the company on itself and the error or discrepancy, we also established a link between learning organizationalThis work constitutes a literature review of the various writings developed which allowed us to understand the notion of organizational learning and to clearly define it.Certainly several factors promote learning within organizations, but the existence of an organizational will and the ability to accept the out put of this learning prove to be the key factors for success.Duncan and Weiss (1979) explain that learning is "Knowledge of the causal links between the actions of the company and the reactions of the environment". While Dennis and Nanus (1985) explain that it is "A means by which the organization increases its potential for survival thanks to its ability to negotiate changes in the environment". A stable environment makes it easier to collect information, and the relationship between the environment and the organization is less uncertain. However, this type of environment can be detrimental to organizational learning as it presents little stimulusto the organization. Organizational learning can also be the result of the organization working on itself by analyzing and correcting previous errors or the process -Cyert, R. M. and March J. G. (1963, 1970). Decision-making process in the company. Paris: Dunod organizational. Organizations that have significant resources adopt an anticipatory learning process, which is neither passive nor reactive. |
| Abstract: | Ce travail de recherche a pour objectif d'étudier les différentes définitions et concept de l'apprentissage organisationnel au sein des organisations. Plusieurs chercheurs se sont mobilisés pour définir l'apprentissage organisationnel Cependant, nous avons trouvé plusieurs travaux essayons de définir ce concept. Ainsi, nous avons essayé définir le lien entre l'apprentissage organisationnel et ses sources à savoir l'environnement, le travail de l'entreprise sur elle-même et l'erreur ou le décalage, nous avons aussi établi un lien entre l'apprentissage organisationnel. Le présent travail constitue une revue de littérature des différents écrits élaboré qui nous as permis de cerner la notion de l ́apprentissage organisationnel et de le bien définir.Certes plusieurs facteurs favorisent l ́apprentissage au sein des organisation, mais l ́existence d ́une volonté organisationnelle et la capacité d ́accepter les out put de cet apprentissage s ́avère les facteurs clés de sucéesDuncan et Weiss (1979) expliquent que l'apprentissage est «Connaissances des liens de causalité entre les actions de l'entreprise et les réactions de l'environnement». Alors que Dennis et Nanus (1985) expliquent que c'est «Un moyen par lequel l'organisation accroit son potentiel de survie grâce à sa capacité de négocier les changements de l'environnement». Un environnement stable, permet plus facilement de collecter les informations, et la relation entre l'environnement et l'organisation est moins aléatoire. Toutefois, ce type d'environnement peut nuire à l'apprentissage organisationnel dans la mesure où il présente peu de stimulus à l'organisation. L'apprentissage organisationnel peut être aussi le résultat du travail de l'organisation sur elle-même en analysant et en corrigeant les erreurs précédentes ou de la démarche 1-Cyert, R. M. et March J. G. (1963, 1970). Processus de décision dans l'entreprise. Paris: Dunodorganisationnelle. Les organisations qui disposent d'importantes ressources, adoptent un processus d'apprentissage anticipatif, qui n'est ni passif, réactif. |
| Keywords: | organizational learning, organization, performance, apprentissageorganisationnel, organisation, performance. |
| Date: | 2024–10–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04755283 |
| By: | Thomas Palley |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of different varieties of capitalism (VoC) on societal happiness. It begins with a critique of Neoclassical welfare economics which emphasizes Pareto optimality, and it argues for focusing on reported societal happiness. The paper identifies five VoC. Using a sample of twenty-six high-income countries drawn from the 2020 World Happiness Report, the paper shows societal happiness is systematically impacted by variety of capitalism type. Social Democratic economies report higher happiness levels. The US benefits from its standing as global economic hegemon, but it still reports lower happiness than Liberal and Social Democratic economies owing to its adverse societal relations. The public policy implication is the Social Democratic variety of capitalism produces greater societal happiness. More generally, happiness analysis can fill a gap in VoC theory and strengthen it by providing an operational form of welfare analysis. Making happiness the focus of attention will also likely change how economists interpret economies, which stands to change both economic theory and policy. |
| Keywords: | Happiness, varieties of capitalism, US hegemon, Liberal, Social Democratic, East Asian, Mediterranean Corporatist |
| JEL: | D6 P0 P1 P5 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:108-2024 |
| By: | Anke Kessler and Bard Harstad (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | We study how international agreements can take advantage of domestic time-inconsistency problems in the context of environmental policies. For example, policymakers will prefer future policies to be sustainable, but find it tempting to raise consumption when being in office. We find the equilibrium number of signatory countries to be higher than when preferences are time consistent, especially when the political environment is unstable and polarized, and the international spillovers are limited. In contrast to the traditional literature, the model can also explain why countries sign conventions with mandates that do not vary with the coalition size. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp24-08 |
| By: | Timothy N. Cason; Alex Tabarrok; Robertas Zubrickas |
| Abstract: | Crowdfunding can suffer from information asymmetry, leaving some investors disappointed with low-quality projects while other high-quality projects remain unfunded. We show that refund bonuses, which provide investors a payment if a fundraising campaign is unsuccessful, can signal project quality and help overcome the market failure in crowdfunding. Because strong projects have a lower risk of bonus payout, entrepreneurs with strong projects are more likely to offer bonuses. This signals high quality to investors, and due to their updated beliefs this drives investment toward such projects. An experiment provides supporting empirical evidence for the benefits of this signaling solution to the problems of information asymmetry in crowdfunding. |
| Keywords: | Crowdfunding; threshold implementation; adverse selection; experiments |
| JEL: | C72 C90 D82 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1339 |
| By: | D'Agosti, Natalia; Danza, Facundo |
| Abstract: | Since 2010, the Uruguayan government has fostered the instal lation of solar panels among households and firms to promotesmall-scale renewable electricity production. Under this policy, agents with solar panels are allowed to feed any electricity sur plus into the grid. We study the economic and environmental consequences of this policy. We collect a novel dataset on elec tricity extraction and injection into the grid at a household-firm level for the whole country. First, we find that installing a solarpanel reduces the electricity extracted from the grid. Second, we find that it increases the electricity injected into the grid. Third, we find that it reduces CO2 emissions between 0.35 and 0.03 kg per month and agent. Fourth, we find evidence of a rebound effect: electricity consumption after the solar panel installation increases between 20% and 26%, on average. Lastly, we propose an alternative policy that allows agents to store their electricity surplus in batteries instead of immediately injecting it into the grid. According to our model, the best time to inject electricity into the grid is around 9 PM, when fossil-fuel facilities satisfy most of the electricity demand. We leverage household and firm-level data to study the effect of a net-metering policy on electricity extraction and injection, showing what countries can expect from implementing such a policy. |
| Keywords: | Ambiente, Desarrollo, Energía, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2164 |
| By: | Hisham Aidi |
| Abstract: | This piece examines the role of labor and religious movements in the face of the “informalization” of the African economy. How does the growth of an informal sector set back class formation and labor activism? How will the rise of economic networks outside formal economic and political channels affect state capacity? Can labor unions develop organizational independence if the labor market is segmented with a growing number of informal workers? What happens when labor market “insiders” confront a growing number of labor market “outsiders”? |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_63_22 |
| By: | Belguutei Ariuntugs; Kehelwala Dewage Gayan Madurang |
| Abstract: | In the data-driven world of actuarial science, machine learning (ML) plays a crucial role in predictive modeling, enhancing risk assessment and pricing strategies. Neural networks, specifically combined actuarial neural networks (CANN), are vital for tasks such as mortality forecasting and pricing. However, optimizing hyperparameters (e.g., learning rates, layers) is essential for resource efficiency. This study utilizes a factorial design and response surface methodology (RSM) to optimize CANN performance. RSM effectively explores the hyperparameter space and captures potential curvature, outperforming traditional grid search. Our results show accurate performance predictions, identifying critical hyperparameters. By dropping statistically insignificant hyperparameters, we reduced runs from 288 to 188, with negligible loss in accuracy, achieving near-optimal out-of-sample Poisson deviance loss. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.12824 |
| By: | Touhami Abdelkhalek; Dorothee Boccanfuso |
| Abstract: | Public policies, particularly those related to taxes and subsidies, should help to reduce poverty and inequality. However, the combination of components of these two systems, as implemented, leads sometimes to an increase in poverty and or inequality without being necessarily anticipated. In this policy brief, based on data from the 2019 wave of the Enquête Panel de Ménage from the Observatoire National du Développement Human from Morocco, we first highlight the influence of taxes and subsidies on household incomes. We derive the income variations relating to the tax burden and gains from subsidies for the different population groups. We then characterize taxes and subsidies in terms of their progressiveness and regressiveness. Finally, using a Shapley decomposition, we determine the contribution of each tax and subsidy to poverty and inequality measures. This analysis is done separately for rural and urban areas, useful to formulate recommendations on this basis. Our results show that the tax and subsidy system, taken all together, is redistributive. We can also conclude unambiguously that this system reduces poverty and inequality. However, the value-added tax is regressive in its current form, unlike income tax, which is progressive. Subsidies for primary and secondary education are highly progressive, while those for higher education are regressive, benefiting the wealthiest quintiles. Finally, explicit subsidies on flour, butane gas, and sugar reduce poverty, although they are not pro-poor.1 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_42-23 |
| By: | Sébastien Brion (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Nathalie Fabbe-Costes (AMU ECO - Aix-Marseille Université - Faculté d'économie et de gestion - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Innovation is paradoxical. Its dominant conception is now showing its fragility in the face of the challenges of sustainability, while it has become an inescapable dogma in the economic and public spheres. This article highlights the limitations of a vision of innovation inherited from Schumpeter and limited to the economic dimension of "creative destruction". This vision, while illuminating the mechanisms of competition, is now proving incomplete in the face of today's environmental and social challenges. In contrast to naive "technological solutionism", this essay questions the theoretical foundations of innovation. In particular, it points to the pernicious effects of incremental innovation, which, under the guise of technological progress, perpetuates unsustainable models and fuels the "acceleration of the production of the useless. In light of these observations, the authors outline an alternative conception of innovation. From now on, innovation must inseparably integrate a system made up of four interdependent dimensions, allowing us to conceive of innovation in a sustainable way. |
| Abstract: | L'innovation joue et se joue de ses paradoxes. Si elle s'est imposée comme un dogme incontournable dans le monde des affaires et le domaine public, sa conception dominante révèle aujourd'hui ses fragilités face aux défis de la durabilité. Cet article met en lumière les limites d'une vision de l'innovation héritée de Schumpeter, cantonnée à la seule dimension économique de la "destruction créatrice". Cette vision, bien qu'éclairante sur les mécanismes concurrentiels, s'avère désormais incomplète face aux enjeux environnementaux et sociaux contemporains. À rebours du "solutionnisme technologique" naïf, cet essai interroge les fondements théoriques de l'innovation. Ils pointent notamment les effets délétères des innovations incrémentales qui, sous couvert de progrès technologique, perpétuent des modèles non soutenables et alimentent "l'accélération des productions de l'inutile". Face à ces constats, les auteurs esquissent les contours d'une conception alternative de l'innovation. Cette dernière doit désormais intégrer, de manière indissociable, un système composé de quatre dimensions interdépendantes permettant d'envisager l'innovation de manière soutenable. |
| Keywords: | innovation soutenable, techno-solutionnisme, approche systémique |
| Date: | 2024–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04755778 |
| By: | Hinh T. Dinh |
| Abstract: | Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the sixteenth largest bank in the United States, experienced a bank run in early March 2023, and was closed by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) on March 10. This bank failure, followed by others, creates fear of contagion throughout the U.S. and global banking systems. This Brief identifies four factors leading to the SVB crisis: i) Sharp interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which adversely affected SVB’s income and balance sheet; ii) The failure of SVB’s management to manage maturity mismatches; iii) The failure of the regulatory and supervisory agencies in discovering the problems and fixing them; and iv) The failure of the 2018 revised Dodd-Frank regulations to subject mid-size banks such as SVB to the same rigorous requirements that large banks have to meet, such as stress tests. The Brief also discusses lessons from the crisis. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_15-23 |
| By: | Christian de Boissieu |
| Abstract: | Les pays membres du FMI (Fonds monétaire international) ont décidé en 2021 de créer une nouvelle tranche de DTS pour une somme équivalente à 650 milliards de dollars. En appliquant les règles habituelles du Fonds, l’Afrique prise globalement n’en recevrait qu’une faible part (33 milliards). C’est pourquoi un certain nombre de pays avancés ont proposé de reverser à l’Afrique une part de leur nouvelle allocation de DTS, afin que le continent africain reçoive au total 100 milliards de dollars. L’objet de ce Policy Brief est de faire le point sur ce sujet. Où en est-on, où allons-nous dans cette opération de réallocation ? Comment se passe-t-elle concrètement ? Le papier fait un certain nombre de recommandations concernant 1/ les conditions d’accès des pays africains à ces nouveaux financements, 2/ l’opportunité à travers le redéploiement partiel des DTS de plus et mieux impliquer les banques multilatérales africaines de développement, 3/ la possibilité de modifier les règles d’attribution des nouveaux DTS. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_13-23 |
| By: | Michele Ubaldi (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University); Matteo Picchio (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of mass shooting exposure on individuals’ mental health by using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our identification strategy relies on the quasirandomness of mass shootings in a staggered difference-in-differences design. We compare changes in mental health outcomes of individuals living in affected cities with changes of matched individuals living in non-proximal and not affected cities. We find that mass shootings have a substantial adverse impact on mental health, which persists for up to six years. This impact is not statistically significant for Black individuals, whereas it is slightly more pronounced among women and older cohorts. |
| Keywords: | Mass shooting, mental health, difference-in-differences, dynamic effect. |
| JEL: | C23 I18 K14 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:491 |
| By: | Hennessy, David; Lapan, Harvey |
| Abstract: | Market concentration ratios are popular statistics for characterizing the extent of market dominance in an imperfectly competitive market, but these ratios may not agree when comparing two markets. Neither do they necessarily agree with the Herfindahl-Hirschman or entropy indices. This letter compares two Cournot oligopoly markets in which firms have constant unit costs. It is shown that the majorization pre-ordering on normalized marketing margin vectors is both necessary and sufficient for all aforementioned indices to agree on which is the more concentrated market. |
| Date: | 2024–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:202410291651270000 |
| By: | Luca Papi (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, MoFiR) |
| Abstract: | Il lavoro integra ed aggiorna l’analisi condotta in un precedente contributo (Papi 2022) per offrire una sistematica e più recente valutazione di due importanti e recenti interventi della politica economica italiana (i cosiddetti "bonus facciat" e "superbonus 110 per cento"). Il bilancio finale conferma il giudizio di grande perplessità sulle modalità con le quali sono state disegnate e applicate le due misure. In particolare, il lavoro discute gli effetti macroeconomici mettendo in luce le conseguenze negative sui conti dello Stato e approfondendo i risultati in termini di efficienza energetica e di equità sociale. Il lavoro si conclude discutendo alcuni suggerimenti correttivi per eventuali future misure incentivanti. The paper integrates and updates the analysis conducted in a previous contribution (Papi 2022) to offer a systematic and more recent evaluation of two important and recent interventions of Italian economic policy (the so-called "bonus facciate" and "superbonus 110 per cento"). The final assessment confirms the judgment of great perplexity on the ways in which the two measures were designed and applied. In particular, the paper discusses the macroeconomic effects highlighting the negative consequences on public finances and examining the results in terms of energy efficiency and social equity. The paper concludes by discussing some suggestions for improving possible future incentive measures. |
| Keywords: | Superbonus, credito d'imposta, settore edilizio, incentivi fiscali. |
| JEL: | H24 H25 H50 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:490 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analizan los desafíos y oportunidades que enfrenta América Latina y el Caribe en la conservación de la biodiversidad y el desarrollo sostenible. Si bien la región cuenta con abundantes recursos naturales que han sido fundamentales para impulsar el crecimiento económico, su explotación desmedida ha puesto en riesgo este valioso patrimonio y ha exacerbado la desigualdad social que, junto con la pérdida de hábitats, la deforestación y el cambio climático, amenazan la sostenibilidad a largo plazo. En este contexto, resulta crucial reorientar el modelo de desarrollo hacia uno más sostenible, que valore, preserve y regenere el patrimonio natural de la región. Para lograrlo, es necesario fortalecer la participación de las instituciones y actores locales, así como fomentar la investigación, la inversión y una gobernanza ambiental efectiva, que incluya el reconocimiento de los Pueblos Indígenas, actores clave para la protección de la biodiversidad. Integrar la conservación en las políticas públicas y los procesos de toma de decisiones permitirá a la región, no solo garantizar un futuro más próspero y sostenible para sus habitantes, sino también generar soluciones innovadoras frente a los desafíos ambientales. |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:80754 |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Anupam Gaur |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to (a) examine the need and impact of ATMs in promoting and facilitating financial inclusion, (b) present the status of ATMs and other instruments of financial inclusion in India and globally, (c) identify the issues that hinder the effective utilisation of ATMs for financial inclusion purposes, and (d) recommend policies and measures to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of ATM utilisation to foster financial inclusion so that a broader segment of the population gains access to the financial tools and services they need to improve their economic well-being. |
| Keywords: | ATM, financial inclusion, economic growth, National Strategy for Financial Inclusion, NSFI, RBI |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:24-r-05 |
| By: | António Afonso; Ana Patricia Montes; José M. Domínguez |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the potential tax burden in a panel data set comprising OECD countries over the period 2000-2021. To this end, we use non-parametric and parametric techniques: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). In this way, it will be possible for us to identify which countries are close to their potential tax capacity and which are far from it. Moreover, we can determine whether they may sustain an increase (decrease) in their actual tax burden depending on whether the tax effort ratio is lower or higher relatively to other similar countries in the sample. Non-parametric and parametric results coincide rather closely on the positioning of the countries vis-à-vis the production possibility frontier and on their relative distances to the frontier. Efficient countries most of the times are: Belgium, Colombia, Finland, France, Italy, Latvia, Slovak Republic, and Sweden. |
| Keywords: | OECD, tax burden, tax efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Data Envelopment Analysis |
| JEL: | C14 C23 H20 H21 H30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11333 |
| By: | Kasey Chatterji-Len; William Nober; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy; Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin |
| Abstract: | Household surveys suffer from persistent and growing underreporting. We propose a novel procedure to adjust reported survey incomes for underreporting by estimating a model of misreporting whose main parameter of interest is the elasticity of regional national accounts income to regional survey income, which is closely related to the elasticity of underreporting with respect to income. We find this elasticity to be substantial but roughly constant over time, implying a large but relatively constant correction to survey-derived inequality estimates. Underreporting of income by the bottom 50 percent of the world income distribution has become particularly important in recent decades. We reconfirm the findings of the literature that global poverty and inequality have declined dramatically between 1980 and 2019. Finally, we find that within-country inequality is falling on average and has been largely constant since the 1990s. |
| Keywords: | poverty; inequality; welfare; survey underreporting |
| JEL: | C83 D31 D33 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:98926 |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | Depuis 2016, on assiste à une dynamique de création de fonds souverains africains. En 2023, on recense 21 pays et 24 fonds souverains. Sur la seule période 2016-23, celle de la deuxième vague, huit pays vont se doter d’un premier fonds souverain, et d’un deuxième, dans le cas du Maroc, en 2022. Cette étude rappelle tout d’abord l’historique d’une création qui commence, dès 1994, au Botswana, avec le Pula Fund, précisant pour chacun des 24 fonds leur date de création, leur répartition régionale, la population des pays concernés etc. Elle propose, par ailleurs, une analyse détaillée des fonds souverains de la deuxième vague, montrant que le plus grand nombre de ces fonds sont des plateformes stratégiques d’investissement, et non pas intergénérationnels, ne se finançant plus, comme la plupart des fonds souverains de la première vague, sur les rentes, pétrolière et gazière. Désormais, ces fonds stratégiques de développement ont une priorité : mobiliser les capitaux internationaux, à partir d’un effet levier de l’argent public, investi dans les projets stratégiques de leurs pays respectifs. Enfin, cette étude montre le rôle clé exercé par le Maroc durant cette deuxième vague, via son fonds souverain Ithmar Capital, en présidant, depuis novembre 2021, l’International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF), une première pour un pays africain, et en ayant été à l’initiative de la création de l’Africa Sovereign Investors Forum (ASIF). |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_04-24 |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Silke Tober (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Die deutsche Inflationsrate lag im September 2024 mit 1, 6 % nochmals deutlich niedriger als im Vormonat (1, 9 %). Ausschlaggebend war erneut ein kraeftigerer Rueckgang der Energiepreise (7, 6 % nach -5, 1 % im August 2024). Die Kernrate ohne Energie, Nahrungsmittel, Alkohol und Tabak erhoehte sich leicht von 2, 6 % im August 2024 auf 2, 7 %, zugleich schwaechte sich allerdings der Preisanstieg bei Dienstleistungen etwas auf 3, 8 % ab. Der Anstieg des fuer die EZB wichtigen harmonisierten Verbraucherpreisindex (HVPI) lag in Deutschland mit 1, 8 % erstmals seit Februar 2021 unter 2 %, nach 2, 0 % im August 2024. Die HVPI-Kernrate verharrte dabei bei 3, 0 %. Auch im Euroraum insgesamt lag die Inflationsrate mit 1, 7 % unter dem Inflationsziel der EZB (2 %). Die VPI-Inflation hat sich mit etwa dem gleichen Tempo abgeschwaecht, mit dem sie seit 2021 unter dem Eindruck der aufeinanderfolgenden Preisschocks gestiegen war. Das gilt auch für die Kernrate, die durch die massive Teuerung einzelner Dienstleistungen wie Autoversicherungen (25, 7 %), Mietwagen (7, 9 %) und Dienstleistungen sozialer Einrichtungen (7, 7 %) hochgehalten wird und deren Niveau zudem infolge der Mehrwertsteuererhoehung auf Speisen im Gastgewerbe zu Jahresbeginn ueberzeichnet ist. Die Inflationsraten der neun hier betrachteten Haushaltstypen in verschiedenen Einkommensklassen lagen zwischen 0, 9 % und 1, 7 %. Haushalte mit Kindern profitierten besonders von dem Rueckgang der Kraftstoffpreise und einkommensschwache Haushalte von den ruecklaeufigen Preisen fuer Haushaltsenergie. Die Inflation duerfte zum Jahresende in Deutschland und im Euroraum zwar etwas ueber 2 % steigen, das Inflationsziel aber bereits im ersten Quartal 2025 nachhaltig erreichen. Zugleich ist die Konjunktur schwach und die Aussichten haben sich eingetruebt. Aktuell daempft die EZB die wirtschaftliche Aktivitaet gezielt und verhindert dadurch dringend erforderliche Investitionen. Je laenger die EZB ihren noch stark restriktiven Kurs beibehaelt, desto wahrscheinlicher ist es zudem, dass sie den Leitzins im kommenden Jahr unter das neutrale Niveau senken muss. Daher sollte die EZB auf ihrer Sitzung im Oktober nicht nur die Zinsen erneut senken, sondern auch signalisieren, dass sie die Zinsen zuegig aus dem restriktiven Bereich fuehren wird. |
| Keywords: | Inflationsmonitor, Inflation, Haushalte, Teuerungsrate, haushaltsspezifische Inflationsraten, Energiepreise, Nahrungsmittelpreise, Verbraucherpreise, Geldpolitik, Europäische Zentralbank, haushaltsspezifische Inflationsraten |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:178-2024 |
| By: | Kjell Arne Brekke; Snorre Kverndokk |
| Abstract: | We study how measures of socioeconomic health inequality inform about welfare inequality. We argue that transfers of either income or health from a better off to a worse off individual should reduce welfare inequality. Lacking an objective measure of individual welfare, we suggest that such a transfer should reduce at least one measure of inequality: inequality in income, health or socioeconomic health. This puts restrictions on measures of socioeconomic health inequality, where a correlation between income and health meets the requirement, while the concentration index only meets the requirement in a statistical sense. Finally, we show empirically that changes in the concentration index over time can be dominated by changes in income. Using data from HUNT, income changes account for 90% of the changes in the concentration index, while health and income are equally important with data from EU-SILC, with large variation across countries and years. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic inequality, health inequality, health transfers, income transfers, concentration index |
| JEL: | D31 I12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11318 |
| By: | Altenburg, Tilman |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy is firmly back on the international agenda and it comes in new forms. The general attitude of governments around the world has gone through phases: from outright rejection in some countries during the neoliberal phase to light-handed interventions in the early 2000s, and, increasingly, to deeper interventions over the last 10 to 15 years. Two trends are driving industrial policymaking of late, especially in the United States, China and Europe: decarbonization, which requires deep, government-led restructuring of various industries; and increasing geopolitical rivalry and supply chain disruptions, which raise concerns about strategic autonomy and economic resilience. Both trends result in heavy-handed market interventions, including unprecedented subsidies to firms, protectionism and control of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. This study explores how these trends are changing industrial policy in Germany by examining three industries: solar and wind energy, hydrogen and digital technologies. It concludes with a discussion of the implications of these shifts for Latin America and the Caribbean, in light of its need to position itself in a changing geopolitical environment. In doing so, the region can learn from the successes and failures of Germany and other countries. |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:80836 |
| By: | Abdoulaye Ndiaye; Kyle Herkenhoff; Abdoulaye Cissé; Alessandro Dell'Acqua; Ahmadou A. Mbaye |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the welfare effects associated with the provision of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits when formal workers represent only a small proportion of the labor market and informal workers can submit fraudulent claims for UI benefits. We develop a model that incorporates these features and also allows for varying degrees of enforcement and funding sources. We then estimate the model’s key parameters by conducting a custom labor force survey in Senegal. We show that the moral hazard response to the UI benefits among workers is small and their liquidity gains are large: an extra dollar of UI benefits yields a consumption-equivalent gain of 50–80 cents, which exceeds comparable U.S. estimates by a factor of 10–20. We then show that the welfare gains depend on the program design: UI funded through payroll taxes is effective and feasible as long as the ratio of formal workers to the benefit level is sufficiently high, while UI funded through consumption taxes generally offers lower welfare benefits but is more resistant to fraudulent claims. Our study highlights the welfare importance of the design of UI financing and suggests large liquidity and consumption smoothing gains of UI in contexts with high informality and potential fraud. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11271 |
| By: | Danielle Cireno Fernandes (Departamento de Demografia/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | Hunger is present when people do not have enough food to eat. On the other hand, the main cause of hunger must be understood not as the collective scarcity of food, but rather as the lack of stable access to food, or food insecurity. In this aspect, fighting hunger is a struggle that involves ensuring a sufficient daily supply of calories. Although the causes of hunger in each family, community and/or society can be easily listed, its consequences are much more complex to estimate from a social and economic point of view. The intention of this research is to propose the scope of a larger study that contains the main points and some highlights that will be detailed in a complete article containing mapping and literature review under the theme “social impacts of hunger in different social sectors, with prioritization of studies with quantitative analysis”. Faced with the Guiding Question: What is the social cost of a hungry person? This research aims to address the social and economic dimensions of hunger/food insecurity in different sectors/areas/social markers: health, education and public safety. The idea is to identify what the short, medium and long-term impacts are and highlight what knowledge production exists and what the gaps are, especially in the analyzes of the “cost of hunger”. |
| Keywords: | Social Cost of Hunger; Undernutrition and School Results; Social Inequality; Educational Inequality; Poverty; Public Policies. |
| JEL: | J1 J10 J18 J19 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td676 |
| By: | Fernandez-Bou, Angel Santiago; Rodriguez-Flores, Jose M.; Ortiz-Partida, J. Pablo; Fencl, Amanda; Classen-Rodriguez, Leticia; Yang, Vivian; Williams, Emily; Schull, Val Zayden; Dobbin, Kristin; Penny, Gopal |
| Abstract: | There is not enough water in California to support current water uses and preserve healthy environments. California aquifers have been systematically depleted over decades, causing household water insecurity, degrading groundwater-dependent ecosystems, affecting small and medium farmers, and inducing subsidence. The California government enacted the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act a decade ago to prevent declining aquifer levels from continuing to cause undesirable results. This law has indirectly driven the necessity to reduce irrigated agriculture by about half a million hectares. If this change is left to market forces alone, cropland retirement could disrupt local economies and vulnerable communities, increasing the levels of injustice for local residents and threatening farmer and farmworker livelihoods. However, if cropland repurposing is organized and managed correctly and collaboratively among the stakeholders involved, it could improve quality of life in disadvantaged agricultural communities, diversify the economy, create more local socioeconomic opportunities, and increase environmental health while promoting food and nutrition security and advancing water sustainability. In this study, we present a systems-level, coproduced Framework of best practices in cropland repurposing to achieve socioenvironmental and economic benefits for all. The Framework is informed and supported by peer-reviewed science, authors’ first-hand experiences, and public engagement about the topic for several years. Our team includes scientists, community leaders, and other experts in cropland repurposing, socioenvironmental justice, agriculture, climate change, land trusts, disadvantaged communities, energy, Indigenous knowledge, and ecosystems. The Framework includes guiding objectives and best practices to overcome co-occurring challenges that prioritize public health, justice, equitable development, sustainable agriculture, green economies, protection to vulnerable groups, education, grassroots leadership, and cultural preservation. We conduct an extensive literature review of the current status quo and to support the best practices identified in our Framework. This review and coproduced Framework aim to ensure that anyone following these best practices can develop new solutions without causing new problems, while fully considering the impacts on all groups affected firsthand by cropland repurposing. |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bvfsm |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | Cette étude est consacrée à la faillite de FTX, considérée comme la deuxième plateforme mondiale d’échanges des cryptomonnaies, derrière Binance, avant l’annonce de sa faillite en novembre 2022. Annonce qui va être un véritable coup de tonnerre, les ébranlant très sérieusement. Après avoir rappelé l’indispensable à connaitre des cryptomonnaies et de leurs plateformes d’échange, l’étude rappelle l’historique d’une faillite arrivant au pire moment, avec des cours du bitcoin qui s’effondrent depuis octobre 2021, fragilisant encore davantage des plateformes d’échange déjà sous surveillance. Elle met aussi en évidence la personnalité contrastée de celui qui l’a créée, Samuel Banking-Fried, insistant sur l’ampleur d’une faillite où tout va se jouer en une semaine. Faillite facilitée par les asymétries d’informations qui caractérisent ce marché et par l’opportunisme de ses acteurs qui les utilisent. Ce que révèle l’existence d’une caisse noire de la chaine de Ponzi FT X /Alameda Research /. Cette faillite conforte le caractère hautement spéculatif des cryptomonnaies, les éloignant chaque jour davantage de ce qu’elles aspiraient à être : une cryptomonnaie refuge attractive pour les banques centrales. Cette faillite, enfin, souligne l’urgence de la régulation, si on ne veut que cela se renouvelle. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_27-23 |
| By: | Piglia, Melina |
| Abstract: | Repasa el derrotero del conjunto de la aviación comercial desde las primeras empresas hasta su absorción por el Estado y la conformación, en 1950, de Aerolíneas Argentinas; su expansión, su privatización en los 90 y su renacionalización en el presente siglo y, en paralelo, el resurgimiento desde 1956 en adelante de las compañías privadas, con sucesivas fases de auge, crisis y retracción, hasta la más reciente aparición de las líneas "low cost". |
| Keywords: | Aviación; Transporte Aéreo; Líneas Aéreas; Historia; Argentina; 1929-2019; |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4193 |
| By: | Scheidler, Viktoria; Klaever, Anke; Scheidler, Vanessa |
| Abstract: | Die wissenschaftliche Debatte weist darauf hin, dass das Privileg kostenloser öffentlicher Parkplätze Fahrzeugbesitzer:innen dazu ermutigt, ihr Auto und die damit verbundenen Mobilitätsroutinen beizubehalten. Somit gilt die Umwidmung von Parkplätzen als wertvolle Maßnahme die Verkehrswende voranzutreiben. Allerdings sind unterschiedliche gesellschaftliche Gruppen unterschiedlich stark von Kosten und Nutzen von diesen Veränderungen betroffen oder haben ungleichen Zugang zu politischer Beteiligung. Daher ist es besonders erforderlich, die Perspektiven marginalisierter sowie stark betroffener Personengruppen zu berücksichtigen und zu ermitteln um Chancengleichheit, soziale Gerechtigkeit, gesellschaftliche und wirtschaftliche Teilhabe, Zugänglichkeit und Sicherheit zu fördern. Bei der wissenschaftlichen Begleitung eines Mobilitätexperimentes im Graefekiez, einer Nachbarschaft in Berlin Kreuzberg, wurden selten gehörte und von der Veränderung stark betroffene Personengruppen in einem qualitativen Fokusgruppen-Format befragt. Hierzu gehören im Graefekiez Menschen mit Mobilitätseinschränkungen (Menschen mit Behinderungen sowie Senior:innen), Gewerbetreibende und Frauen aus einer Siedlung mit geringem sozio-ökonomischen Status. Die Fokusgruppen hatten zum Ziel, gemeinsam mit den Teilnehmenden Erkenntnisse zur Beteiligung sowie Einblicke in die Perspektiven der Personengruppen in Bezug auf Maßnahmen zur Mobilitätswende im Graefekiez zu sammeln. In diesem Diskussionspapier wurde es sich daher zur Aufgabe gemacht, die Themenschwerpunkte, die von uns Wissenschaftler:innen aus dem transkribierten Material und gemeinsam im Prozess mit den Teilnehmenden identifiziert wurden, zusammenzufassen, sowie Schlussfolgerungen für Entscheidungsträger:innen in der Mobilitätswende allgemein zu generieren. Die Einblicke machen unter anderem deutlich, wie sehr das Auto und dazugehörige Parkplätze mit anderen Themen wie Gentrifizierung, Fairness-Empfinden, Klassismus und damit einhergehender Ab- und Ausgrenzung von unterschiedlichen Lebensrealitäten verbunden ist. Diese gilt es ernst zu nehmen und mit einzubeziehen, wenn es darum geht, nicht nur den Verkehr, sondern die Mobilität an sich, also auch die sozialen Praktiken, gesellschaftlichen Wertevorstellungen und Gewohnheiten, neu zu denken. |
| Abstract: | The scientific debate suggests that the privilege of free public parking encourages vehicle owners to keep their car and the mobility routines associated with it. The reallocation of parking spaces is therefore considered a valuable measure to promote the mobility transition. However, different social groups are affected to different extents by the costs and benefits of these changes or have unequal access to political participation. It is therefore particularly necessary to take into account and identify the perspectives of marginalized and severely affected groups of people in order to promote equal opportunities, social justice, social and economic participation, accessibility and security. During the scientific monitoring of a mobility experiment in the Graefekiez, a neighborhood in Berlin Kreuzberg, rarely heard as well as groups of people strongly affected by the change were interviewed in a qualitative focus group format. In the Graefekiez, these included people with movement disabilities (people with disabilities and senior citizens), tradespeople and women from a settlement with low socio-economic status. The aim of the focus groups was, together with the participants, to collect information about barriers and enablers to participation and insights into the group's perspectives with regard to measures for the mobility transition in the Graefekiez. This discussion paper therefore summarizes the key topics that we as scientists identified together with the participants from the transcribed material in the process, as well as generates conclusions for the mobility transition in general. The insights show clearly, how much the car and the associated parking spaces are connected to other issues such as gentrification, a sense of fairness, classism and the associated separation and exclusion from different realities of life. These must be taken seriously and included when it comes to rethinking not only traffic, but mobility itself, including social practices, social values and habits. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbdms:305304 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | The Brazilian economy is stuck in a so-called middle-income trap—growth that stalled long before Brazil caught up with the living standards of the highly industrialized countries. After exhibiting a stellar performance in the decades before the 1980s, the economy has since been unable to sustain growth for long periods. The predicament can be summarized using a medical analogy: Brazil has been suffering from both productivity anemia and public sector bloat. On the one hand, it hasn’t enjoyed the sort of productivity growth expected of economies at this stage of development— the harvesting of easy efficiency gains ranging from improved business organization to rapid diffusion of imported technology. On the other hand, the appetite for expanding public spending has become increasingly incompatible with limited productivity gains, particularly since the spending has not delivered on the accompanying hopes for socioeconomic mobility. * A preliminary version of this text appeared at Milken Institute Review, October 23, 2023 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_40_23 |
| By: | Alexandra Baier; Natalie Struwe |
| Abstract: | We study cooperation in an environment where public good providers face the decision to accept a newcomer to their group. A bottom-up process for accepting new members to social groups reveals individual preferences to include newcomers. Alternatively, inclusion can be decided in a top-down process by a third party. We present data from an online public good experiment, varying first whether inclusion of a newcomer is exogenously imposed through a random draw or endogenously decided on by the group members through a majority voting rule. Secondly, we target uncertainty about the behavior of the newcomer by providing feedback information on previous prosocial behavior from a dictator-to-charity task of the newcomer. The results demonstrate a high general willingness to include newcomers, with the voting process resulting in significantly higher inclusion rates compared to the exogenous process. The prosocial information neither affects aggregate inclusion nor aggregate cooperation outcomes significantly. Providing information on prior prosocialty, however, constitutes a significant determinant for individual behavior: it directly affects the likelihood of group members to vote for inclusion, as well as influencing expectations on future cooperativeness of the newcomer. |
| Keywords: | endogenous group formation, inclusion, public good, charitable giving, cooperation |
| JEL: | C72 C92 D64 H41 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2024-08 |
| By: | Bojicic-Dzelilovic, Vesna; Kostovicova, Denisa; Causevic, Fikret |
| Abstract: | Establishing economic collaboration between previously antagonistic groups during post-conflict business recovery advances peacebuilding by nurturing intergroup ties. However, we have a limited understanding of how post-conflict intergroup economic collaboration develops and how it is sustained. We address these gaps from the perspective of peace-positive entrepreneurship. Specifically, an ecosystem approach that we apply directs analysis to dynamic entrepreneurial action in the local context. To examine the role of intergroup interactions in decision-making of entrepreneurs in post-conflict business recovery and in response to the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, we conducted fieldwork on two micro-economies in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Our findings demonstrate that entrepreneurs’ engagement across ethnic lines was a main facet of resource mobilisation strategies that enabled them to (re)establish and develop market presence post-conflict. Likewise, intergroup economic collaboration was a lynchpin of entrepreneurs’ effective response to the COVID-19 economic shock. This path-dependent analysis of entrepreneurial action shows that intergroup economic collaboration is not simply a side-effect of post-conflict business recovery and development. Rather, intergroup economic collaboration also needs to be actively pursued by entrepreneurs attuned to the local context. Intergroup economic collaboration can be instrumental in business (re)engagement in the post-conflict economy, generating wider benefits to peacebuilding. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; interethnic relations; political economy; peacebuilding; Bosnia and Herzegovina |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125561 |
| By: | Alves, Guillermo; Burton, William H.; Fleitas, Sebastián |
| Abstract: | Violations of the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) are a common threat to identification of the effects of policies causing the resorting of agents between treated and untreated groups. We show that in such contexts the difference-in-differences estimator can be decomposed into three effects (autarky, resorting and contamination). We also show that demand and supply elasticities are “sufficient statistics” for the relative size of these effects and that there exist a trade-off in terms of heterogeneity between SUTVA and parallel trends assumption violations. We illustrate our argument by studying a large placed-based tax break for the construction of residential housing in Uruguay. First, we obtain a series of difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of the policy on housing prices and show that they differ considerably depending on the degree of heterogeneity between subsidized and unsubsidized areas. Consistent with our conceptual framework, prices fall substantially when comparing heterogeneous areas, and very little or not at all when comparing similar areas. Second, we estimate a structural model of supply and demand for neighborhoods that rationalizes those different estimates and allows us to recover the three effects as well as the welfare impact of the policy. Overall, we find that SUTVA violations account for 25% of the effect on subsidized areas and lead to a sizable underestimation (24 p.p.) of the incidence of the tax break on subsidized areas. |
| Keywords: | Banca de desarrollo, Infraestructura, Vivienda, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2192 |
| By: | Lars Hornuf; Matthias Mattusch |
| Abstract: | Fintech startups have set out to revolutionize the financial world. However, little is known about how successful and innovative these firms actually are. This paper investigates firm failure, funding success, and innovation capacity using a hand-collected dataset of 892 German fintechs founded between 2000 and 2021. We find that founders with a business degree and entrepreneurial experience have a better chance of obtaining funding, while founder teams with science, technology, engineering, or mathematics backgrounds file more patents. Early third-party endorsements and foreign partnerships substantially increase firm survival. We also establish the following stylized facts: (1) fintechs focusing on business-to-business models and which position themselves as technical providers prove to be more effective; and (2) fintechs competing in segments traditionally reserved for banks are generally less successful and less innovative. These results have important implications for the early-stage success management of fintech firms and the investment decisions of venture capital funds and government startup programs. |
| Keywords: | Fintech industry, firm funding, firm failure, innovation capacity |
| JEL: | G24 M13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11301 |
| By: | Patrick M. Kline |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature on firm wage differences and the fixed effects methods typically used to measure these differences. High wage firms tend to be more productive, larger, more sought after by workers, and to employ more credentialed and higher wage workers. The latest evidence suggests high wage firms also tend to offer better amenities and are prone to outsourcing and mass layoffs. Reviewing the requirements of the “AKM model” of Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis (1999), I provide a graph theoretic interpretation of the restrictions this model places on the wage changes of workers who switch employers and examine the extent to which they are satisfied in a benchmark dataset. Assumptions are provided that give these wage changes a causal interpretation and I discuss some difficulties that arise in aggregating them into a global ranking of firm wage levels. In reviewing the econometrics of variance decompositions, I argue that attention ought to focus on effect sizes rather than variance shares, which can be difficult to compare across datasets with different noise levels. Cross-fitting and clustering methods for addressing limited mobility bias are reviewed. A series of bounding and imputation exercises suggest the network pruning typically used in conjunction with cross-fitting methods has little effect on estimands of interest. A review of the latest international evidence finds that the bias corrected standard deviation of firm effects tends to be substantially elevated in less developed countries. Variance estimation methods for second step regressions of firm effects on covariates are reviewed and illustrated with an empirical application to the firm size wage premium. Finally, I discuss connections between the AKM model and the celebrated sequential auction framework of Postel-Vinay and Robin (2002a), concluding with some areas for future work at this intersection. |
| JEL: | J3 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33084 |