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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Ulbing, Philipp |
| JEL: | E52 G21 C21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc24:302353 |
| By: | Jing Cynthia Wu; Yinxi Xie; Ji Zhang |
| Abstract: | We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies—event studies, vector autoregressions, and regional panel regressions using granular data—and establish a null result. The key economic mechanism works through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation through the usual demand channel. We illustrate this negative supply-side channel both theoretically and empirically. |
| Keywords: | Inflation and prices; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Business fluctuations and cycles; Central bank research |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-38 |
| By: | William C. Dudley (Princeton University) |
| JEL: | D82 E32 E44 G21 G28 G32 L25 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:329 |
| By: | Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Ajevskis, Viktors; Brázdik, František; Garcia, Pablo; Gatt, William; Lima, Diana; Mavromatis, Kostas; Ortega, Eva; Papadopoulou, Niki; De Lorenzo, Ivan; Kolb, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | Understanding asymmetric risks in macroeconomic variables is challenging. Most structural models used for policy analysis are linearised and therefore cannot generate asymmetries such as those documented in the empirical growth-at-risk (GaR) literature. This report examines how structural models can incorporate non-linearities to generate tail risks. The first part reviews the various extensions to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and the computational challenges involved in accounting for risk distributions. This includes the use of occasionally binding constraints and more recent developments, such as deep learning, to solve non-linear versions of DSGEs. The second part shows how the New Keynesian DSGE model, augmented with the vulnerability channel as proposed by Adrian et al. (2020a, b), satisfactorily replicates key empirical facts from the GaR literature for the euro area. Furthermore, introducing a vulnerability channel into an open-economy set-up and a medium-sized DSGE highlights the importance of foreign financial shocks and financial frictions, respectively. Other non-linearities arising from financial frictions are also addressed, such as borrowing constraints that are conditional on an asset’s value, and the way macroprudential policies acting against those constraints can help stabilise the economy and generate positive spillovers to monetary policy. Finally, the report examines how other types of tail risk beyond financial frictions – such as the recent asymmetric supply-side shocks – can be incorporated into macroeconomic models used for policy analysis. JEL Classification: E70, D50, G10, G12, E52 |
| Keywords: | asymmetric shocks, DSGE, macroprudential policies, non-linearities, structural models, tail risks, vulnerability channel |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024357 |
| By: | Felipe Alves; Giovanni L. Violante |
| Abstract: | We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with a three-state frictional labour market that is consistent with the empirical evidence that (i) low-skilled workers are more exposed to the business cycle, (ii) displacement leads to long-lasting earnings losses, and (iii) unemployment is a stepping stone toward exit from the labor force. In this environment, a transient contractionary monetary policy shock induces a very persistent reduction in labour force participation and labour productivity, especially among workers at the bottom of the skill distribution. Despite the negative hysteresis on output, the model does not give rise to protracted deflation. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Transmission; Labour Markets |
| JEL: | E21 E24 E31 E32 E52 J24 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-39 |
| By: | Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the different theories and pointing to possible directions for future research. A literature review is complemented by empirical evidence based on the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time. |
| Keywords: | disagreement; expectations; forecasts; rationality; survey data |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0754 |
| By: | William Barnett (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA and Center for Financial Stability, New York City); JoonSoo Lee (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA Author-Name: Naowar Mohiuddin; Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA) |
| Abstract: | This study constructs Divisia monetary aggregates for the “Asian Tigers†—Hong Kong (1999–2024), South Korea (2009–2024), Singapore (1991–2021), and Taiwan (2005–2024)—and assesses whether Divisia monetary aggregates explain nominal GDP better than simple-sum money. Our findings demonstrate that Divisia indices respond more sensitively to economic shocks. For Hong Kong and Taiwan, narrow Divisia money provides the best explanations for fluctuations in nominal GDP. Our results suggest that Divisia monetary aggregates can be beneficial for monetary policy analysis in these countries and underscore the importance of further research into the empirical performance of Divisia monetary aggregates in macroeconomic prediction. |
| Keywords: | divisia index; divisia monetary aggregates; vector error-correction model |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202413 |
| By: | Barreto Otazú, César; Merkl, Christian |
| Abstract: | Our paper documents the importance of workers' ex-ante heterogeneity for labor market dynamics and for the composition of the unemployment pool. We show that workers with high wages have both lower separation rates and larger log-deviations of these separations over the business cycle than those with low wages. Thereby, more high-wage workers enter the unemployment pool in recessions, leading to a positive correlation between unemployment and the prior wage of those losing their job. Based on administrative data for Germany and two-way fixed effects, we show that worker fixed effects are key for the documented facts. We contrast our empirical results with a search and matching model with worker ex-ante productivity heterogeneity. The simulated model can replicate the empirical facts when calibrated to the measured flow rates and to the relative residual wage dispersion from the administrative data for different wage groups. It is the combination of low steady state separation rates and low residual wage dispersion for high-wage workers that generates the patterns documented in the data. |
| Keywords: | Labor Market Flows, Separations, Fixed Effects, Labor Market Dynamics |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J31 J60 J64 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:304409 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University); William Roberds (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | We consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Drawing on examples from monetary history, we argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. A paradoxical feature of these transformations is that success in the micro dimension can encourage macro failure. Overcoming this paradox may require politically uncomfortable compromises. We propose that such compromises will be necessary for the success of CBDCs. |
| Keywords: | monetary systems, banknotes, central banks, digital currencies |
| JEL: | E42 E58 N10 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:323 |
| By: | Shigeru Fujita; Valerie A. Ramey; Tal Roded |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many facets of this question. We find five main results. First, withdrawals from the labor force at the end of WWII were an important part of the explanation for the small rise in the unemployment rate. These withdrawals tended to be concentrated among females between the ages of 20 and 44 and male war veterans. Second, among those staying in the labor force, most of the workers who separated from their jobs moved directly into a new job. Third, workers accomplished these job-to-job transitions despite moving across industries. Fourth, returning veterans quickly returned to their previous position on the occupation ladder whereas those laid off from civilian jobs experienced a significant step down the occupation ladder. Fifth, a neoclassical model suggests that the post-war boom in job creation was a direct consequence of the crowding out of investment in consumer durable goods, residential capital, and business capital by military spending during the war. |
| JEL: | E22 E32 E37 E62 N10 N42 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33041 |
| By: | Marek Walacik; Aneta Chmielewska; Richard Grover |
| Abstract: | Local government units’ own revenues are the most significant sources of financing their activities, from the point of view of their financial self-reliance. The sources include several groups of income characterized by different fiscal efficiency and performed functions. One of the groups is formed by so called local fees, that being a source of revenue, are also urban development factors that influence entities operating in the municipality. Among the fees that are the main income of municipalities in most developed economies are ad valorem property taxes. In countries that have not implemented this solution, where the basis for determining the tax is, for example property area, it was necessary to develop alternative solutions that enable the collection of fees on various changes in the real estate structure (e.g. the adjacent fee). Property valuation principles defining the scope, assumptions and methodological procedures are substantial in that case. The principles are subject of continuous changes, which can have either positive or detrimental impact on urban development. This article attempts to assess the potential impact of legal changes, in terms of determining the value of real estate for the purpose of the adjacent fee collection on the municipal revenues and consequently urban development policy implementation. |
| Keywords: | Adjacent fee; Municipal revenues; Property valuation principles; Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-053 |
| By: | Vanschoonbeek, Jakob |
| Abstract: | The recent rise and distinct geography of populism highlights the need for high resolution data on the economic and political landscapes and improved spatial political economy models that explain their interrelation. This paper shows that divergent development generates political externalities in lagging regions. To do so, it develops a dynamic spatial political economy model that integrates redistributive taxation and agglomerated economic growth in a standard economic geography framework. It finds that divergent development induces skill-biased labor mobility towards faster growing locations, simultaneously reducing their willingness to pay redistributive taxes and increasing their electoral influence on redistributive policy. To empirically validate and calibrate the model, the Spatial Political Economy in Europe Database (SPEED) is introduced, containing newly georeferenced electoral maps, political party classifications and gridded (per capita) GDP estimates for most European countries in the 17th release of the Constituency-Level Electoral Archive (CLEA). Instrumental variable regressions exploiting geographically-determined differences in economic growth potential confirm a strong constituency-level causal relation between underdevelopment and radical vote shares in the past two centuries. Counterfactual simulations suggests that policies that enhance labor mobility or income redistribution may both increase radical vote shares at least in the short run, as they risk fueling backlash in lagging and leading regions respectively. |
| Keywords: | Economic geography, political economy, political discontent, long-term effects of divergent development, quantitative model, populism, political extremism |
| JEL: | C51 C52 C63 C80 H21 J61 N93 N94 O40 R12 R32 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122310 |
| By: | Ellora Derenoncourt (Princeton University); David Weil (Brandeis University) |
| Abstract: | Recent wage growth at the bottom of the earnings distribution in the U.S. has reversed a decades-long trend of widening wage inequality. Numerous state and local minimum wage increases have overtaken an effectively non-binding federal minimum, and robust labor demand in the post-pandemic recovery drove wage growth in the low-wage sector. An increasingly pervasive phenomenon over this same period (2014-2023) is the use of company-wide, voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) by private employers, including some of the largest U.S. retailers. We use anonymized payroll data for thousands of firms collected by a major credit bureau to study the effects of these policies on large retailers’ own wages and employment, as well as spillover effects onto other employers in shared labor markets, variously defined. Using stacked event studies centered around multiple VMW events and a continuous treatment variable defined as the gap between local area wages and the company minimum, we find that VMWs result in sizable wage increases and reductions in turnover at the companies that implemented them. Turning to wages at other companies, including those connected to the large retailer by worker flows, we estimate precise, economically negligible spillover effects. Despite the decline in separations from companies with voluntary minimums, overall hiring rates at connected employers do not decline, consistent with substitutability across new hires. Although voluntary minimum wage policies have affected over 3 million jobs among the largest retailers, their impact on the broader labor market is limited. |
| JEL: | J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:333 |
| By: | Renáta K?e?ková (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague); Daniela ?álková (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague); Radka Procházková (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague); Sergyi Yekimov (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague) |
| Abstract: | Tourism demand plays a significant role in a country's economy and influences macroeconomic stability. Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is fundamental, especially in the context of the fast-changing global economic conditions. This study focuses on the Czech Republic and neighbouring countries and examines how selected macroeconomic variables - namely nominal exchange rates, inflation rates, GDP per capita and employee compensation - affect tourism demand as indicated by the number of guests and overnight stays in hotels and other accommodation facilities. The main aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between these macroeconomic variables and the demand for inbound tourism based on data from Germany, Austria, Poland and Slovakia and the Czech Republic over the period 2000-2022. A sub-objective is to use the results of this analysis to forecast the future development of tourism demand in the Czech Republic up to 2028. The data set was obtained from multiple sources, including the Czech Statistical Office, Eurostat, and the World Bank, ensuring reliability. The analysis was carried out using the Gauss-Markov least squares method, which allowed estimating the relationships between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand. Time series analysis, including exponential smoothing methods, was used to model and predict future trends in tourism demand. The findings show that nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and GDP per capita have a significant impact on tourism demand, with differences depending on the country of origin. For example, an increase in the inflation rate in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic tends to reduce the number of tourists from these countries staying in Czech hotels, while a similar increase in Germany and Austria has the opposite effect and increases the number of tourists from these countries. These results highlighted the complexity of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand and shown that country-specific economic policies can significantly affect tourist´s flow. The study also provides a forecast of tourism recovery in the Czech Republic, predicting a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of tourist arrivals and overnight stays by the end of 2024, with continued growth through 2028. These findings are valuable for policy makers and industry stakeholders planning development of the tourism sector in the Czech Republic. |
| Keywords: | Tourism Demand, Macroeconomic Variables, Czech Republic, Forecasting, Exchange Rate, Inflation Rate |
| JEL: | C51 C53 L83 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516470 |
| By: | Alvaredo, Facundo; Berman, Yonatan; Morelli, Salvatore |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the estimation of wealth distribution using estates left at death. We establish formal conditions for adopting a simplified version of the classic estate multiplier method, using only minimal information on estates and mortality. We empirically validate these conditions and apply the simplified approach to produce novel long-run top wealth share series for Belgium, Japan, and South Africa, where estate data have not yet been exploited. This approach may vastly expand the range of countries and years for which wealth inequality can be estimated, where estate data exist but the standard method cannot be applied. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a4frb |
| By: | Sarah Sander (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of universal daycare on mothers’ labor force participation, full-time employment, and earnings over their working lifetime. I exploit differential access to daycare caused by a roll-out of daycare centers across Denmark in combination with rich administrative data. Daycare availability has persistent effects on labor force participation and increases long-run earnings. Reduced fertility and parental separation are potential mediators behind the participation effects. For higher-educated mothers, participation effects diminish over time, whereas earnings effects prevail in the long run. These results suggest that labor market attachment during child-rearing years has important long-run economic consequences. |
| Keywords: | child care; female labor supply |
| JEL: | J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2413 |
| By: | Simionescu, Mihaela; Schneider, Nicolas; Gavurova, Beata |
| Abstract: | Transmission channels from monetary shocks might be identified by studying the features of the production network. The main aim of this paper is to provide insights about the role of production network into the propagation of monetary policy shocks in G7 economies. Time-varying Bayesian vector-autoregressions were built to compute impulse response functions of output to monetary policy shocks in these countries. Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Bound Approach based on Mean-Group estimator was used to assess the long and short-run connections between production network structure and various shocks associated to monetary policy in the period 2000–2018 and during the Great Recession (2007–2009). The results show that upstreamness is more significant than downstremness in the period 2000–2018, while the financial sector significantly contributed to the spread of various monetary shocks during the Great Recession. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR model; monetary policy shocks; panel ARDL model; production network |
| JEL: | C51 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125580 |
| By: | Zongwu Cai (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); Gunawan (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia); Yuying Sun (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new nonparametric forecasting procedure based on a weighted local linear estimator for a nonparametric model with structural breaks. The proposed method assigns a weight based on both the distance of observations to the predictor covariates and their location in time and the weight is chosen using multifold forward-validation to account for time series data. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and show that the weight estimated by the multifold forward-validation is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible out-of-sample prediction risk. Additionally, a nonparametric method is adopted to estimate the break date and the proposed approach allows for different features of predictors before and after break. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to provide evidence for the forecasting outperformance of the proposed method over the regular nonparametric post-break and full-sample estimators. Finally, an empirical application to volatility forecasting compares several popular parametric and nonparametric methods, including the proposed weighted local linear estimator, demonstrating its superiority over other alternative methods. |
| Keywords: | Combination Forecasting; Model Averaging; multifold forward-validation; Nonparametric Model; Structural Break Model; Weighted Local Linear Fitting |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202412 |
| By: | Thais Nuñez-Rocha (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Inmaculada Martinez Zarzoso Zaki (Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universitat Jaume I = Jaume I University); Chahir Zaki (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to examine how stringent environmental regulations affect international trade flows. We show that national environmental legislation reinforces the impact on trade of environmental provisions in deep trade agreements. |
| Keywords: | International trade environmental regulations environmental provisions in trade agreements F18 K32, International trade, environmental regulations, environmental provisions in trade agreements F18, K32 |
| Date: | 2023–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04731483 |
| By: | Adereth, Maya |
| Abstract: | Throughout the nineteenth century, powerful railway unions in the USA and the UK cultivated an expansive system of voluntary sickness, death, unemployment, and superannuation benefits. By the early twentieth century, the movements had diverged: while the British Amalgamated Society of Railway Servants relinquished its commitment to voluntarism in favor of state healthcare and pensions, the American Railway Brotherhoods persisted along voluntarist lines, resisting social insurance in favor of exclusive schemes for their white male membership. What accounts for these diverging orientations? I highlight the importance of organizational forms as a lens for understanding comparative trade union strategy, emphasizing the role of law in designating legitimate forms of working-class association. I demonstrate that governing elites in both countries promoted voluntarism as a benign form of working-class organization throughout much of the nineteenth century. Consequently, I argue, early American and British trade unions adopted benefits in part because they enabled them to mimic the far more respected and legitimate friendly and fraternal mutual benefit societies. Toward the end of the century, the context had changed: while alternative organizational avenues were opened for trade unions in the UK, benefits presented an ongoing organizational lifeline for American unions. In defining and redefining the boundaries of legitimate forms of workers’ associations, legal decisions in both countries shaped not only trade union organizing strategies in the short run but also their positioning in broader social struggles. |
| Keywords: | labor movements; comparative historical sociology; trade unions; welfare states; AAM requested |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125565 |
| By: | Barrios, John; Lancieri, Filippo Maria; Levy, Joshua; Singh, Shashank; Valletti, Tommaso M.; Zingales, Luigi |
| Abstract: | We conduct a survey of economists and a representative sample of Americans to infer the reduction in the perceived value of a paper when its authors have conflicts of interest (CoI), i.e., they have financial, professional, or ideological stakes in the outcome of the results. On average, a CoI decreases trust in the conclusions of an economics paper by 30%. This reduction in trust reflects a combination of the frequency of conflicted papers and the bias of papers when they are conflicted. To isolate the second term, we introduce a key construct: the CoI Discount, which measures the reduction in the value of a conflicted paper relative to a nonconflicted one. We show that, on average, conflicted papers are worth less than half of non-conflicted ones, though this effect varies significantly depending on the nature of the conflict. The discount is more pronounced when the conflict involves the interest of a private rather than a public entity. Restricted data access also leads to a substantial discount. We validate our survey based estimates by comparing them to actual biases observed in conflicted papers within the economics and medical literature. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:304408 |
| By: | Romain Bouis; Mr. Gaston Gelos; Fumitaka Nakamura; Mr. Paavo A Miettinen; Erlend Nier; Gabriel Soderberg |
| Abstract: | This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the implications for financial stability of a central bank issuing a digital currency to the public at large. We start with a systematic analysis of balance sheet changes that arise from the new liability for the central bank and the banking system, and examine how they depend on preconditions, central bank choices, and banking system responses. Based on this, we discuss the range of implications for financial stability that may arise in steady state, in the context of adoption, and in crisis times. Threats to financial intermediation in steady state arise mainly in situations where the central bank balance sheet expands, and triggers adjustment mechanisms that lead to more costly or less stable funding of the banking system, while in crisis times run risk may increase. Our analysis of policy choices to control these effects considers macroprudential policy, and an expansion of central bank lending to commercial banks, but finds that a main contribution needs to come from a design of the CBDC that encourages its use as a means of payment rather than a store of value. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Digital Currency; Financial Stability; Balance Sheets; Disintermediation; Bank Runs |
| Date: | 2024–10–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/226 |
| By: | Farrell, Graham (University of Leeds); Davies, Toby |
| Abstract: | Knife crime has become a prominent and seemingly intractable problem in England & Wales. Theory and evidence indicate that reducing crime opportunities is an effective means of crime control, including restrictions on lethal weapons. While public debate has centred on zombie and other ‘status’ knives, the most prevalent homicide weapon is a kitchen knife. Here we argue that replacing lethal pointed-tip kitchen knives with round-tip knives would reduce knife crime with little or no displacement, and may reduce other forms of violence. Drawing on the approach to remove fossil-fuel vehicles from roads, we propose a phased removal of lethal kitchen knives and estimate this will cut knife crime in half. |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2d8ea |
| By: | Börschlein, Erik-Benjamin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Diegmann, André (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Gürtzgen, Nicole (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kubis, Alexander (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Pirralha, André (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Pohlan, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Popp, Martin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vetter, Franka (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "The IAB Job Vacancy Survey is a quarterly and representative establishment survey on labour demand and recruitment processes in Germany. The survey identifies the overall stock of vacancies in the German labour market, including those vacancies that are not reported to the Federal Employment Agency (FEA). The first module of the questionnaire collects information about the number and structure of vacancies, future personnel requirements, about the current economic situation and the expected development of participating establishments. The second module enquires about employer attitudes and firm use of current labour market instruments as well as the employer handling of people disadvantaged in the labour market. The third module asks for information about the last new hire and the last case of a failed recruitment effort. The Research Data Centre of the Federal Employment Agency offers the data sets of the survey waves from 2000 onwards." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; 10.5164/IAB.IABSE0021.de.en.v1 |
| Date: | 2024–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202406(en) |
| By: | Bonetti, Pietro; Leuz, Christian; Michelon, Giovanna |
| Abstract: | The rise of shale gas and tight oil development has triggered a major debate about hydraulic fracturing (HF). In an effort to bring light to HF practices and their potential risks to water quality, many U.S. states have mandated disclosure for HF wells and the fluids used. We employ this setting to study whether targeting corporate activities that have dispersed externalities with transparency reduces their environmental impact. Examining salt concentrations that are considered signatures for HF impact, we find significant and lasting improvements in surface water quality between 9-14% after the mandates. Most of the improvement comes from the intensive margin. We document that operators pollute less per unit of production, cause fewer spills of HF fluids and wastewater and use fewer hazardous chemicals. Turning to how transparency regulation works, we show that it increases public pressure and enables social movements, which facilitates internalization. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation, Fracking, Real effects, Disclosure, Water pollution, Sustainability, Corporate social responsibility, Externalities, Unconventional oil & gas development |
| JEL: | D62 G38 K22 K32 L71 L72 M41 M48 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:304316 |
| By: | Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Devashish Mitra |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes and compares equilibrium immigration levels of some popular political economy models in the context of unequal capital holdings. We show that immigration rises (falls) with inequality in a limited (inclusive) democracy where only a small (large) fraction of the population has voting rights. Furthermore, we highlight the similarities between a campaign-contributions model and a partial-democracy model in terms of their predictions about immigration policy. In particular, we show that extension of voting rights in a partial democracy has qualitatively similar implications on immigration policy as reducing the relative weight on campaign contributions. |
| Keywords: | legal immigration policy; inequality in capital ownership; partial democracy; voter support for immigration; campaign contributions; lobbying |
| JEL: | F22 F66 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98968 |
| By: | Alexandre Sautter,; Guillaume Ficat-Andrieu,; Julien Casals,; Elodie Soundrom,; Mathieu Verdure |
| Abstract: | In the French Overseas territories, as in mainland France, individual car use is largely predominant, generating negative externalities (environmental and economic). It is all the more important in the Overseas territories, due to a lack of public transport and infrastructure adapted to active mobility, and therefore raises socio-territorial issues. Based on a study carried out in La Réunion and financed by the AFD, this paper examines the role and place of carpooling in an integrated public mobility policy. By analyzing the different types of user profiles and their respective obstacles, we identify levers for action and put forward a number of recommendations for AOMs to encourage this practice. |
| Keywords: | Guadeloupe, Guyane, La Réunion, Martinique |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en17436 |
| By: | Jérémie Gilbert |
| Abstract: | Au cours des dernières décennies, les initiatives pour reconnaître des droits à la nature se sont multipliées, donnant naissance à un mouvement global. Or, il existe de multiples pistes de synergies entre ce mouvement et les droits humains. Ils s’inscrivent dans une même pensée philosophique, éthique et morale de reconnaissance de droits fondés sur les valeurs inhérentes et intrinsèques des entités vivantes – aussi bien humaine que non-humaines. Dans ce contexte, cette recherche se penche sur les liens du triptyque : droits humains conventionnels, droit à un environnement sain et droits de la nature avec pour objectif d’offrir une analyse de l’interdépendance entre ces familles de droits et la façon dont les acteurs du développement peuvent se saisir de ces enjeux dans une logique écocentrique. L’objectif de cette réflexion n’est pas que théorique, au contraire. En effet, la jurisprudence des droits humains intègre de plus en plus les droits de la nature comme faisant partie du droit à un environnement sain. Le droit à un environnement sain met ainsi l’accent sur le lien entre le bien-être des êtres humains et le reste du monde naturel – soulignant la réciprocité intrinsèque entre tous ces éléments. La complémentarité des droits humains et des droits de la nature se traduit également par les efforts déployés par les défenseurs des droits et de l’environnement issus des peuples autochtones, pour lier les droits culturels à une approche relationnelle de la nature. Cette dernière favorise l'émergence d'une approche juridique considérant le monde naturel comme un système interconnecté, composé de nombreuses formes de vie en relation dynamique les unes avec les autres englobant la biosphère dans son ensemble – humaine et non-humaine. L’approche plus relationnelle à la nature représente un élément important de la jurisprudence émergente des tribunaux internationaux et régionaux concernant les droits des peuples autochtones. Elle souligne l’importance de sortir des dichotomies humains/nature pour penser différemment la relation des humains aux non-humains et réviser la relation au vivant en tenant compte des approches des peuples autochtones. À ce titre, l’ambition de cette recherche est d’analyser comment ces liens entre les familles de droits peuvent contribuer à un nouveau modèle de développement véritablement durable, pour l’ensemble du vivant. Néanmoins, cette étude analyse aussi les potentiels conflits entre les droits humains et les droits de la nature sachant que les mesures de protection de l'environnement peuvent restreindre le champ de la liberté d'action individuelle et sont susceptibles de limiter la jouissance des droits humains. Le principe de proportionnalité – qui est souvent au cœur des décisions relatives aux droits humains – pourrait devenir un véhicule pour gérer de tels conflits. Ce principe met sur un pied d’égalité les intérêts humains et les intérêts de la nature – plutôt que d’imposer une quelconque hiérarchie entre ces intérêts parfois divergents.Enfin, cette recherche explore comment une telle complémentarité entre les droits humains et les droits de la nature peut conduire à une nouvelle approche moins anthropocentrique du droit au développement, ainsi que du droit international pénal. En se basant notamment sur l’importante jurisprudence de nombreux pays d’Amérique Latine qui ont déjà intégré les droits de la nature au même niveau que les droits humains dans leur système interne, la recherche montre comment une approche reconnaissant et respectant à la fois les droits humains et les droits de la nature est essentiel pour construire une société juste, durable et équilibrée qui valorise et préserve la dignité et l'interdépendance de toutes les formes de vie, et rompre avec une conception majoritairement dominée par une approche anthropocentrique et économique envers la nature. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr17491 |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Bergeaud, Antonin; Lequien, Matthieu; Melitz, Marc J.; Zuber, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We decompose the “China shock” into two components that induce different adjustments for firms exposed to Chinese exports: an output shock affecting firms selling goods that compete with similar imported Chinese goods, and an input supply shock affecting firms using inputs similar to the imported Chinese goods. Combining French accounting, customs, and patent information at the firm level, we show that the output shock is detrimental to firms’ sales, employment, and innovation. Moreover, this negative impact is concentrated in low-productivity firms. On the other hand, the impact of the input supply shock is reversed. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 J1 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123934 |
| By: | Magdalena Potz (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU IMPGT - Institut de management public et de gouvernance territoriale - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Solange Hernandez (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU IMPGT - Institut de management public et de gouvernance territoriale - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMU - Aix Marseille Université); Sarah Serval (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU IMPGT - Institut de management public et de gouvernance territoriale - AMU - Aix Marseille Université, AMU - Aix Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyzes the French Citizens Convention for Climate (CCC), a democratic experiment in public policy cocreation, responding to climate change and the democratic crisis. The CCC, involving 150 citizens, aimed to propose measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite producing 149 proposals, the government's limited implementation led to widespread dissatisfaction, which highlights the complexities of policy cocreation. Through textual statistics analysis, the study reveals the "wicked" nature of cocreation, intensified by diverse values and interests among participants. It underscores the critical need for the government's political readiness and absorptive capacity in cocreation processes. While citizens showed commitment and capability, political-administrative elites displayed resistance, indicating a policy capacity gap. This resistance not only undermined the CCC's efforts but also exacerbated public distrust in political processes. The CCC's experience suggests that future cocreation initiatives in public policy must better integrate with political decision-making. The balance between standardization and contextual adaptation is key to effectively addressing complex societal issues. This chapter advocates for close monitoring of cocreation applications in public policy to assess their effectiveness in resolving societal challenges. |
| Keywords: | Absorptive capacity, citizen participation, cocreation, policy capacity, wickedization |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04714400 |
| By: | Felder, Rahel (Ruhr University Bochum); Frings, Hanna (Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (BMAS), Germany); Mittag, Nikolas (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | Recent papers identify the effects of unemployment insurance and potential benefit duration (PBD) on unemployment duration and reemployment wages using quasi-experiments. To make known problems of heterogeneity in quasi-experiments tractable, they often use models of job search, but we argue that letting the data speak without restrictions remains surprisingly informative. We focus on two broad questions: How informative are the local average effects quasi-experiments identify and what can we learn about causes and mechanisms from quasi-experiments in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects? We first line out a framework for treatment effect heterogeneity with two interdependent outcomes, such as duration and wages, and then re-examine the effects of longer PBD in Schmieder, von Wachter and Bender (2016). Local average effects become more informative when amended with other parameters identified by (quasi-) randomization: Duration effects of PBD almost exclusively prolong few long spells, which helps to explain differences between studies. Dynamic selection into reemployment timing is non-monotonic, but does not change with PBD at short durations so dynamic treatment effects are identified at short durations. For wage effects of PBD, we find neither evidence of positive effects nor meaningful heterogeneity. Even though key structural parameters are not identified because LATE confounds average effects with the covariance of first and second stage effects, the data remain informative about causes and mechanisms. A wage decomposition shows that wage loss operates through the firm fixed effect, which speaks against individual-based causes such as skill depreciation or bargaining. Using dynamic treatment effects and mediation analyses, we find PBD to affect wages even for workers who do not change unemployment duration, i.e. directly. The negative direct effect we find casts doubt on key assumptions of common models of job search. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, unemployment insurance, benefit duration, heterogeneous treatment effects |
| JEL: | J31 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17348 |
| By: | Stenberg, Anders (Swedish Institute for Social Research); Tudor, Simona (Swedish Public Employment Service) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether field of study assigned at age 16 impacts mental health in adulthood. Using a regression discontinuity design that exploits GPA cutoffs, we find that admission to the preferred study field improves mental health, lowering both the incidence of antidepressant prescriptions and of mental health-related hospitalizations. Engineering contributes strongly but not uniquely to the positive results. As for mechanisms, earnings explain 40% of the estimates, but earlier proposed hypotheses based on school-age peer characteristics have little explanatory power. Our findings imply that restrictions on individuals’ choices, to improve human capital allocations, entail costs that may have been underestimated. |
| Keywords: | field of study; health; secondary education |
| JEL: | I10 I21 I24 J24 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2023–12–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofile:2024_001 |
| By: | Magdalena Knapi?ska (Poznan University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this study is to analyze the flows of immigrants and emigrants in Poland. The paper starts with a literature review of economic theories of migration and demographic trends. In the last years, Poland experienced a large change migratory pattern and geographic labour mobility. While Poland was initially a source country in international migration, it is becoming increasingly a target country for migration flows. This development was accelerated by the war in Ukraine. Based on the geographical proximity and a long tradition of intense of short-term migration from Ukraine to Poland, nearly a half million of refugees from Ukraine moved to Poland. Moreover, the scope of migration changed from the short-term to the long-term migration. Although, this development caused some short-term structural problems in various fields including education and social system, the Polish economy was able to absorb the war refugee flows better than expected. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects and Forecasts, Labor and Demographic Economics, Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers |
| JEL: | J11 J00 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14516367 |
| By: | Kevin S. Milligan; Tammy Schirle |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the retirement incentives embedded in Canada’s retirement income system with attention to where individuals are located in the income distribution. We find that larger social security benefits are available to individuals with lower earnings in their work history because of the benefit income tests, but those from the top of the income distribution tend to enjoy longer lives over which they may receive benefits. Overall, we see greater Social Security Wealth among individuals from lower deciles. The implicit tax rates on continued work tend to be higher for workers from lower-earning deciles. Considering changes to actuarial adjustments associated with early pension take up, these implicit tax rates on work at older ages fell substantially after 2011. Our regression estimates confirm the importance of incentives on retirement behavior, with substantially larger effects for individuals in lower deciles. These effects are greater for women than men. In simulations, we show that changes to the actuarial adjustment had some impact on retirement rates by lowering the implicit tax on work. The overall redistributive effect of these induced retirement changes was fairly small, however, as the actuarial adjustments brought the system closer to actuarial fairness. |
| JEL: | H55 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33069 |
| By: | Zhang, Kesen; Pan, Zhen; Zhang, Keming; Ji, Feng |
| Abstract: | Background: The goal of “peak carbon and carbon neutrality” has pointed out the direction for the digital transformation (DIT) of enterprises. Companies need to pay a price when they seek green development or fulfill environmental responsibility. Out of self-interest, enterprises may exaggerate their environmental performance (EP) and then greenwashing behavior appears. Whether DIT can curb greenwashing behavior is a topic worth discussing. Objective: This paper proposes a theoretical framework for the influence of DIT on greenwashing and further discusses how government subsidies, resource slack, and external pressure affect them. The data of China’s listed A - share companies are used to test this theoretical framework. Methods: In this paper, multiple linear regression method is used to test the theoretical mechanism, and Hausman test and instrumental variable method are used to test the correctness of the conclusions. Results: (1) DIT has an inhibitory effect on greenwashing. (2) Government subsidies, resource slack, and public pressure positively moderate the relationship. (3) The effect of DIT does inhibit symbolic behavior, but the impact on substantive behavior is not obvious. The moderating effects of various variables are also different. Discussion: It is suggested that the government take the lead in building more digital public participation platforms to improve the online monitoring and early warning ability of enterprises’ greenwashing behavior, tourge enterprises to configure more intelligent and digital cleaner production equipment and facilities, and to improve their environmental performance. Local governments are encouraged to seize the trend of enterprises’ digital green transformation, introduce more government subsidy policies for DIT, improve digital infrastructure and digital intellectual property protection, and escort enterprises’ green DIT. The government and the banks should cooperate to give more green preferential loans, tax relief, and other measures to enterprises undergoing green DIT. |
| Keywords: | digitisation; digitization; environmental responsibility; greenwashing; legitimacy theory; resources slack |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125707 |
| By: | Denuit, Michel (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium); Ortega-Jimenez, Patricia (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium); Robert, Christian Y. |
| Abstract: | Conditional mean risk sharing defines an allocation rule to distribute total losses among participants in an insurance pool. Under this risk-sharing scheme, the no-sabotage condition holds when conditional expectations of individual losses given their sum are comonotonic. This property has been widely studied considering independent risks, often assuming that they possess log-concave densities. This paper considers the no-sabotage condition for dependent-by-mixture risks which do not necessarily obey log-concave distributions. Sufficient conditions derived from three different approaches are proposed in order to fulfill the no-sabotage requirement. Several examples are given to illustrate the applicability of the results. |
| Keywords: | Conditional mean risk sharing ; no-sabotage condition ; conditional independence ; Efron’s monotonicity |
| Date: | 2024–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2024019 |