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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Givens, Gregory; Tavoy, Reid |
| Abstract: | Postwar data reveals significant co-movement between net firm entry and private consumption conditional on a government spending shock. We construct and estimate an equilibrium model that matches this observation both in a qualitative sense and with an eye towards replicating the quantitative effects over time. Our model combines endogenous entry subject to sunk costs with unemployment arising from unobservable effort. Key to its success is an insurance design that partially protects workers against job risk. This feature allows aggregate consumption to increase through compositional changes in the labor force while amplifying the procyclical response of firm entry. |
| Keywords: | Government Spending; Consumption; Entry; Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | E22 E24 E32 E62 J41 |
| Date: | 2024–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121894 |
| By: | Bence Bardóczy; Jae W. Sim; Andreas Tischbirek |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of shocks to the household wealth distribution in dynamic general equilibrium by characterizing the rate at which excess wealth is depleted. Analytical results link the aggregate decumulation rate to the distribution of the additional balances, micro intertemporal marginal propensities to consume, and general equilibrium feedback. A quantitative heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model matches the depletion path of the excess savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic across the income distribution. The model predicts a substantial but steadily waning boost to consumption and explains up to 40 percent of the surge in inflation observed in 2020 and 2021. |
| Keywords: | Excess savings; Heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) models; Incomplete markets; Household portfolios; Inflation dynamics; COVID-19 pandemic |
| JEL: | E21 E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-62 |
| By: | Mahmood, Asif; Masood, Hina |
| Abstract: | Evaluating the current state of the business cycle is of crucial importance to policymakers for making effective decisions. However, economic data are often noisy and available with a substantial lag. Determining the underlying state of an economy is thus very difficult in practice as traditional national accounts data are often available on quarterly or annual basis. To overcome these gaps, policymakers, especially at the central banks, started to closely track the changes in high-frequency economic activity indicators. In this paper, learning from global best practices, we attempt to develop a composite monthly measure of real economic activity for Pakistan using available high-frequency data. Our constructed measure closely tracks the trend in the real GDP, which is available with relatively large lags from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Provided this important characteristic, we test and found a reasonable power of our monthly measure to nowcast real GDP growth for a reference quarter. |
| Keywords: | Economic Activity, High-frequency data, GDP |
| JEL: | E01 E23 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121838 |
| By: | Marco Del Negro |
| Abstract: | The post-COVID years have not been kind to professional forecasters, whether from the private sector or policy institutions: their forecast errors for both output growth and inflation have increased dramatically relative to pre-COVID (see Figure 1 in this paper). In this two-post series we ask: First, are forecasters aware of their own fallibility? That is, when they provide measures of the uncertainty around their forecasts, are such measures on average in line with the size of the prediction errors they make? Second, can forecasters predict uncertain times? That is, does their own assessment of uncertainty change on par with changes in their forecasting ability? As we will see, the answer to both questions sheds light of whether forecasters are rational. And the answer to both questions is “no” for horizons longer than one year but is perhaps surprisingly “yes” for shorter-run forecasts. |
| Keywords: | professional forecasters; uncertainty; overconfidence |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98756 |
| By: | Mardonova, Mohru; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi |
| Abstract: | Quantitative data collected in August and September 2018 in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, called “The Assessment of Nutrition-Sensitive Value Chains in the FtF ZOI in Tajikistan†were employed to analyze gender differences in participation in crop production and marketing activities, and to understand the association between women’s employment and their decision-making power at home. The dataset contains general information on the households’ farm activities, and detailed information of production practices for households’ main horticultural crops (vegetables, fruits, melons and cucurbitae). |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; nutrition; value chains; gender; crop production; marketing; women's empowerment; employment; decision making |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:145188t |
| By: | Stachurski, John; Wilms, Ole (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Zhang, Junnan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:29da00af-3cca-4717-aa55-acd85ede1841 |
| By: | Alin Boloca (University of Aurel Vlaicu Arad, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The issue of wars and military conflicts is one of the most significant social challenges confronting humanity today. The establishment of the United Nations aimed to protect future generations from the consequences of warfare by maintaining international peace and security. Regrettably, whether we realize it or not, we are part of a violent world where war and armed conflict still permeate our world today, and the number of armed conflicts and wars is alarmingly high. War is a problem that has both old and new connotations. The studies conducted so far to establish the number of armed conflicts and wars differ from one researcher to another, but their numbers are very high. These conflicts are characterized by brief interludes of peace, significant direct and collateral casualties, substantial economic losses, and far-reaching consequences, leaving deep scars on those directly affected and their descendants. This study endeavors to analyze the Christian perspective on war, addressing questions related to the attitude of Christian and Pentecostal believers toward contemporary and topical issues concerning war and armed conflicts. |
| Keywords: | War and armed conflicts, compassion, preservation of human life, Christian viewpoints, pacifism, activism, selectivism, self-reflection |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0410 |
| By: | Prasad, Vignesh; Stock-Homburg, Ruth; Peters, Jan |
| Abstract: | For some years now, the use of social, anthropomorphic robots in various situations has been on the rise. These are robots developed to interact with humans and are equipped with corresponding extremities. They already support human users in various industries, such as retail, gastronomy, hotels, education and healthcare. During such Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) scenarios, physical touch plays a central role in the various applications of social robots as interactive non-verbal behaviour is a key factor in making the interaction more natural. Shaking hands is a simple, natural interaction used commonly in many social contexts and is seen as a symbol of greeting, farewell and congratulations. In this paper, we take a look at the existing state of Human-Robot Handshaking research, categorise the works based on their focus areas, draw out the major findings of these areas while analysing their pitfalls. We mainly see that some form of synchronisation exists during the different phases of the interaction. In addition to this, we also find that additional factors like gaze, voice facial expressions etc. can affect the perception of a robotic handshake and that internal factors like personality and mood can affect the way in which handshaking behaviours are executed by humans. Based on the findings and insights, we finally discuss possible ways forward for research on such physically interactive behaviours. |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149449 |
| By: | Albrecht, James (Georgetown University); Cai, Xiaoming (Peking University); Gautier, Pieter A. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Vroman, Susan (Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers competitive search equilibrium in a market for a good whose quality differs across sellers. Each seller knows the quality of the good that he or she is offering for sale, but buyers cannot observe quality directly. We thus have a "market for lemons" with competitive search frictions. In contrast to Akerlof (1970), we prove the existence of a unique equilibrium, which is separating. Higher-quality sellers post higher prices, so price signals quality. The arrival rate of buyers is lower in submarkets with higher prices, but this is less costly for higher-quality sellers given their higher continuation values. For some parameter values, higher-quality sellers post the full-information price; for other values these sellers have to post a higher price to keep lower-quality sellers from mimicking them. In an extension, we show that if sellers compete with auctions, the reserve price can also act as a signal. |
| Keywords: | competitive search, signaling |
| JEL: | C78 D82 D83 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17246 |
| By: | William Kratochwill (PhD Student, University of Coimbra, Faculty of Economics); Paulino Teixeira (University of Coimbra, CeBER, Faculty of Economics, and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the wage curve in Brazil, considering the unique characteristics of the country’s labor market, marked by significant regional and socioeconomic disparities. Using a robust econometric model with fixed effects and control for endogeneity, the analysis covers both the standard wage curve and an extended version that includes additional labor force underutilization measures, such as time-related underemployment (TRU) and potential labor force (PLF). The results indicate that a 10% increase in the unemployment rate (UR) results in a reduction of approximately 0.4% in wages. The wage elasticity is higher for male and young workers, while workers with a college degree show no wage sensitivity with respect to the unemployment rate. Interestingly, model estimation with regional versus group-specific labor underutilization reveals no cross effects of women’s UR on men’s wages, for example. However, there are cross-effects when the PLF and TRU variables are included in the model, as the estimated differences between the two models are statistically significant. Within this comparative exercise, cohorts of workers from low-density areas have their wages affected by labor underutilization observed in high-density areas. Our results also show significant differences for workers in either rural or non-metropolitan areas, while the converse is not true, that is, the wage elasticity in urban or metropolitan areas depend exclusively on the labor underutilization rate observed in the corresponding area, without any significant cross effects from the rural or non-metropolitan areas, respectively. Finally, there is no statistically significant difference between the model with group-specific versus the overall (regional) measure in the case of young workers. In other words, there is evidence that the salary of young workers is not affected by variations in the UR, PLF, and TRU of other age groups. |
| Keywords: | Wage curve, labor underutilization, econometric model, unemployment, time-related underemployment..; Wage curve, labor underutilization, econometric model, unemployment, time-related underemployment |
| JEL: | C23 C26 J21 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2024-03 |
| By: | Guinaudeau, Benjamin; Jankowski, Michael |
| Abstract: | When do populist radical-right parties (PRRP) foster the (descriptive) representation of women? In a recently published paper, Weeks et al. (2023) coin the concept of 'strategic descriptive representation'. When facing electoral struggles, PRRP would exploit the existing gender gap and strategically increase the descriptive representation of women to attract female votes and fare better in the election. Using data on 58 elections across 19 countries, the authors test their argument and find conclusive evidence supporting it. In this paper, we offer a replication of the study. First, we assess the numerical reproducibility of the published findings ('verification'). Second, we investigate the 'robustness' of the findings and evaluate the results under alternative model specifications. While our replication study identifies minor issues with the verification and some of themodel specifications, itmost importantly shows that the main results of the paper are driven by a single outlier. The paper's key finding is hence contingent on the inclusion of a single observation (French Front National in 2012), which is a questionable observation as it only elected two MPs, one of whom was a woman. Additionally, this woman's election was seemingly caused by a combination of idiosyncratic factors discussed in the study. Once the case is excluded from the analysis the key model parameter shrinks close to zero and loses its statistical significance. Accordingly, in light of our findings, there is no clear evidence supporting strategic descriptive representation and electoral pressures do not seem sufficient to encourage PRRP to increase their share of female representatives. Correcting this empirical finding has important implications for both understanding PRRP's electoral strategies and women's representation. |
| Keywords: | descriptive representation, women, populist radical-right, replication, robustness, small-N studies |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:149 |
| By: | Geis-Thöne, Wido; Zink, Benita |
| Abstract: | Bei welchen Aufgaben kann Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) die Arbeit von Personalabteilungen in den kommenden fünf Jahren sinnvoll unterstützen? Diese Frage wurde von 752 Personalverantwortlichen im Rahmen der 34. Welle des IW-Personalpanels im Herbst/Winter 2023/24 beantwortet. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:302131 |
| By: | Görg, Holger; Jäkel, Ina Charlotte |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate whether gender norms and institutions act as a constraint to the performance of female businesses. We exploit novel and unique micro data on start-ups in Denmark, which we combine with information on individual-level characteristics of the entrepreneur as main decision maker of the firm. We overcome the challenge of disentangling norms and institutional biases against women from other constraints and hurdles that female businesses might face by exploiting detailed trade data. In this trade context, we study the relative performance of firms across markets with varying institutions, while controlling for other factors that affect female businesses uniformly across all markets. We provide evidence that gender inequality and institutional biases against women in trade partner countries play an important role in explaining gender differences in export and import behaviour. We also perform an event study of a concrete policy change in a destination market - the introduction of quotas for the share of females on the boards of directors in Norway - and how it has affected the gender gap in trade participation. |
| Keywords: | Gender Inequality, Firm Internationalization, Start-up Performance |
| JEL: | F14 J16 M13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:302556 |
| By: | Audoly, Richard; Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo; McGee, Rory; Ocampo, Sergio |
| Abstract: | We use 25 years of tax records for the Norwegian population to study the mobility of wealth over people’s lifetimes. We find considerable wealth mobility over the life cycle. To understand the underlying mobility patterns, we group individuals with similar wealth rank histories using agglomerative hierarchical clustering, a tool from statistical learning. The mobility patterns we elicit provide evidence of segmented mobility. Over 60 percent of the population remains at the top or bottom of the wealth distribution throughout their lives. Mobility is driven by the remaining 40 percent, who move only within the middle of the distribution. Movements are tied to differential income trajectories and business activities across groups. We show parental wealth is the key predictor of who is persistently rich or poor, while human capital is the main predictor of those who rise and fall through the middle of the distribution. JEL Classification: D31, E21, C23, C38, C55 |
| Keywords: | agglomerative hierarchical clustering, equality of opportunity, intergenerational links, life cycle, wealth dynamics |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242976 |
| By: | Estefanía Galván (Instituto de Economía, FCEA, Universidad de la Republica); Cecilia García-Peñalosa (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille France) |
| Abstract: | A considerable body of work has shown that motherhood is accompanied by a reduction in labor market participation and hours of market work, while more recent ndings indicate that women who earn more than their husbands tend to subsequently take actions that reduce their market income. Both patterns of behaviour have been interpreted as women trying to conform to child-rearing norms and to the prescription that the husband should be the main breadwinner. In this paper we use panel data for US couples to re-examine women's behaviour when they become mothers and when they are the main breadwinner. We start by asking whether the arrival of a child a ects women who are the main breadwinner and those who are not in the same way, and then turn to how mothers and childless women react when they are the main breadwinner. Our results are consistent with the breadwinner norm only a ecting mothers, suggesting that the salience of gender norms may depend on the household's context, notably on whether or not children are present. Concerning the arrival of a child, we nd that although the labor supply of women who earn more than their husbands initially responds to motherhood less than that of secondary earners, the two groups converge after 10 years. Moreover, women in the former category exhibit a disproportionately large increase in the share of housework they perform after becoming mothers. The latter results suggest that the presence of children pushes women to seek to compensate breaking a norm by adhering to another one. |
| Keywords: | gender identity norms, female labor supply, children, relative income |
| JEL: | D10 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2424 |
| By: | Frohnweiler, Sarah; Adongo, Charles A.; Beber, Bernd; Lakemann, Tabea; Priebe, Jan; Lay, Jann |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized controlled trial to examine the short- and mid-term impacts of a best-practice training program on (non-)employment outcomes in Ghana. Overall the program did not affect core labor market outcomes at the extensive (employment) and intensive (hours of work, income) margin, but it (i) induced occupational sorting, with treated individuals more likely to work in their field of specialization, (ii) partially improved job quality (written contracts, medical benefits), and (iii) led to better outcomes on a variety of non-labor market indicators (mental health, delayed marriages, access to finance). We also explore policy stakeholders' expectations and perceptions of program success. We find that stakeholders (i) have overly optimistic prior beliefs about the program's impact on core outcomes and (ii) do not update their beliefs as we would expect from Bayes' rule when presented with information about the program's circumscribed effectiveness. We speculate that this result suggests an obstacle for adaptive programming in development cooperation and could help explain the persistence of some suboptimal labor market interventions. |
| Abstract: | Anhand einer randomisierten kontrollierten Studie untersuchen wir die kurz- und mittelfristigen Auswirkungen eines Best-Practice-Ausbildungsprogramms auf Beschäftigung und Lebensbedingungen in Ghana. Insgesamt hatte das Programm keine Auswirkungen auf die zentralen Beschäftigungsindikatoren, weder extensiv (Beschäftigung) noch intensiv (Arbeitsstunden, Einkommen). Allerdings führte das Programm (i) zu einer Verschiebung der Beschäftigung hin zu Berufen, in denen die Ausbildung absolviert wurd, (ii) einer teilweisen Verbesserung der Arbeitsplatzqualität (schriftliche Verträge, medizinische Versoorgung) und (iii) einer Verbesserung einer Reihe von Indikatoren der Lebensqualität (psychische Gesundheit, spätere Eheschließungen, Zugang zu Finanzen). Darüber hinaus untersuchen wir die Erwartungen und Wahrnehmungen der politischen Akteure in Bezug auf den Erfolg des Programms. Wir stellen fest, dass die Akteure (i) a priori zu optimistische Vorstellungen über die Auswirkungen des Programms auf die wichtigsten Indikatoren haben und (ii) ihre Vorstellungen nicht gemäß der Bayes'schen-Regel aktualisieren, wenn sie Informationen über die begrenzte Wirksamkeit des Programms erhalten. Diese Ergebnisse weisen auf ein potenzielles Hindernis für eine adaptive Programmgestaltung in der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit hin und könnten das Fortbestehen einiger suboptimaler Arbeitsmarktinterventionen erklären. |
| Keywords: | Vocational training, labor markets, skills, youth, women, impact evaluation, Ghana |
| JEL: | C93 I21 J08 J24 J28 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:302181 |
| By: | David P. Glancy; Robert J. Kurtzman |
| Abstract: | Rising interest rates and structural shifts in the demand for space have strained CRE markets and prompted concern about contagion to the largest CRE debt holder: banks. We use confidential loan-level data on bank CRE portfolios to examine banks' exposure to at-risk CRE loans. We investigate (1) what loan characteristics are associated with delinquency and (2) to what extent the portfolio composition of major CRE lenders determines their exposure to losses. Higher LTVs, larger property sizes, and greater local remote work tendencies are all associated with increased delinquency risk, particularly for office loans. We use several machine learning algorithms to demonstrate that variation in exposure to these risk factors can account for most of the performance disparity across different types of CRE lenders. The headline result is that small banks' comparatively modest delinquency rates mostly reflect observable portfolio characteristics---predominantly their low holdings of large-sized office loans---rather than unobserved factors like extension or modification tendencies. |
| Keywords: | Commercial real estate; Banks; CMBS |
| JEL: | G21 G23 R33 |
| Date: | 2024–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-72 |
| By: | Han Ding; Yinheng Li; Junhao Wang; Hang Chen |
| Abstract: | Trading is a highly competitive task that requires a combination of strategy, knowledge, and psychological fortitude. With the recent success of large language models(LLMs), it is appealing to apply the emerging intelligence of LLM agents in this competitive arena and understanding if they can outperform professional traders. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of the current research on using LLMs as agents in financial trading. We summarize the common architecture used in the agent, the data inputs, and the performance of LLM trading agents in backtesting as well as the challenges presented in these research. This survey aims to provide insights into the current state of LLM-based financial trading agents and outline future research directions in this field. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.06361 |
| By: | Carsten Creutzburg (Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This study is the first to investigate the superstar effect on professional men’s tennis players’ situational performance, employing novel serve and return ratings. We innovate by examining the impact of superstars on the performance of both higher-ranked (HR) and lower-ranked (LR) players. We provide evidence that HR players deliberately increase/decrease their performance in (non)dominant match situations based on their rank and the timing of facing a superstar in subsequent matches. Similarly, there are differences in the extent of performance shifts induced by superstars among different rank groups for LR players; however, the differences do not extend to different within-match situations. |
| Keywords: | Superstar effect, tournaments, professionals, productivity |
| JEL: | J44 L83 Z21 Z22 |
| Date: | 2024–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hce:wpaper:079 |
| By: | Ahmet Faruk Aysan (HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University [Doha, Qatar]); Ibrahim Musa Unal (HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University [Doha, Qatar]) |
| Abstract: | Islamic finance, based on ethical investing principles and socio-economic justice, has the potential to tackle worldwide financial difficulties and advance sustainable development. This article examines Islamic finance's historical background, present condition, and prospects, focusing on its compatibility with Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards and sustainable development goals (SDGs). Throughout its history, Islamic finance has developed from its initial focus on fairness and societal accountability to become a complex business that includes Sukuk, Islamic banking, and Takaful. The industry encounters obstacles such as discrepancies in regulations and fluctuations in the economy while also having prospects for expansion and incorporation into the global financial system. Global uncertainties, such as technological upheavals and socio-political dynamics, require Islamic finance to possess resilience and adaptation. The future of Islamic finance hinges on its ability to incorporate ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) and sustainability factors. This can be achieved by utilizing novel financial instruments such as Green Sukuk and Social Impact Sukuk, which aim to raise funds for projects with positive environmental and social impacts. Strategic measures such as standardization, increasing awareness, improving regulations, and creating capacity are essential for promoting the integration of ecological, social, and governance (ESG) factors. The capacity of Islamic finance to appeal to socially aware investors and promote sustainable economic growth highlights its crucial role in establishing a fairer and more robust global financial system. This article offers valuable insights and suggestions on utilizing Islamic finance's ethical principles to promote sustainable development and enhance economic resilience. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Finance, Historical, Future, Finance |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04669980 |