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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School); Jamie Cross (The University of Melbourne, & BI Norwegian Business School); Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank); Herman K. Van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and Norges Bank) |
| Abstract: | The Fed’s policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the Fed chairs, a Bayesian framework is introduced in order to endogenously select timing and number of regimes in a data-driven way. This agnostic approach favors a partitioning of the data based on two regimes related to business cycle phases. Estimated policy rule coefficients differ in two important ways over the two regimes: the degree of gradualism is substantially higher during normal times than in recessionary periods while the output gap coefficient is higher in the recessionary regime than in the normal one. The estimate of the inflation coefficient largely satisfies the Taylor principle in both regimes. The results are substantially reinforced when using real-time data. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Taylor rules, mixed distributions, regime-switching |
| JEL: | C32 C51 E42 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240030 |
| By: | Elijah Broadbent; Huberto M. Ennis; Tyler Pike; Horacio Sapriza |
| Abstract: | he provision of bank credit to firms and households affects macroeconomic performance. We use survey measures of changes in bank lending standards, disaggregated by loan category, to quantify the effect of changes in banks’ attitudes toward lending on aggregate output, inflation, and interest rates. Bank lending to businesses is particularly important for macroeconomic outcomes, with peak effects on output of around half a percentage point after four quarters of the initial shock. These effects depend on the stage of the business cycle and the proximity of the short-term interest rate to its effective lower bound. The effects are larger when output is growing below trend and when the interest rate is away from its lower bound. We also find that the response of the economy to lending-standards shocks is asymmetric, with tightening shocks having larger effects on output. |
| Keywords: | Credit Supply; Macroeconomic activity; Loan Portfolio Composition |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:98690 |
| By: | Joachim Jungherr; Matthias Meier; Timo Reinelt; Immo Schott |
| Abstract: | We provide novel empirical evidence that firms’ investment is more responsive to monetary policy when a higher fraction of their debt matures. In a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with financial frictions and endogenous debt maturity, two channels explain this finding: (1.) Firms with more maturing debt have larger roll-over needs and are therefore more exposed to fluctuations in the real interest rate (roll-over risk). (2.) These firms also have higher default risk and therefore react more strongly to changes in the real burden of outstanding nominal debt (debt overhang). Unconventional monetary policy, which operates through long-term interest rates, has larger effects on debt maturity but smaller effects on output and inflation than conventional monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; investment; corporate debt; debt maturity |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:98708 |
| By: | Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Karen A. Kopecky |
| Abstract: | There have been more than 700, 000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of recreational opioid usage. The model is fit to estimated Markov chains from the US data that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. The epidemic is broken down into two subperiods: 2000-2010 and 2010-2019. The opioid epidemic's drivers, their impact on employment, and the impact of medical interventions are examined. Lax prescribing practices and misinformation about the risk of addiction are important drivers of the first half of the epidemic. Falling prices for black-market opioids combined with an increase in their lethality are found to be important for the second half. |
| Keywords: | addiction; college/non-college educated; deaths; employment; fentanyl; Markov chain; medical interventions; opioids; OxyContin; pain; prices; prescribing practices; state-contingent preferences; structural model; subjective and objective beliefs |
| JEL: | D11 D12 E13 I12 I14 I31 J11 J17 |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98713 |
| By: | F. Blasques (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); S.J. Koopman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); G. Mingoli (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); S. Telg (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test exploits the fact that bubbles are anticipative, that is, they are generated by an extreme shock in the forward- looking dynamics. In particular, the test uses both path level deviations and growth rates to assess the presence of a bubble of given duration and size, at any moment of time. We show that the distribution of the test statistic can be either analytically determined or numerically approximated, depending on the error distribution. Size and power properties of the test are analyzed in controlled Monte Carlo experiments. An empirical application is presented for a monthly oil price index. It demonstrates the ability of the test to detect bubbles and to provide valuable insights in terms of risk assessments in the spirit of Value-at-Risk. |
| Keywords: | noncausality, bubbles, testing, date-stamping, risk assessment |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240036 |
| By: | Arias Rodríguez, Mateo (Universidad Nacional de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | Desde una perspectiva histórica y filosófica, este ensayo busca vincular el reciente proceso de financiarización de la economía mundial con un proceso de evolución social reaccionario donde las nuevas condiciones productivas acercan al sistema más a una nueva forma de feudalismo que a alguna forma de capitalismo o de socialismo. Con esto mente, la primera parte de este escrito analiza las características del feudalismo; la segunda, tercera y cuarta la evolución del capitalismo; la quinta el papel de la financiarización y la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) en las crisis macroeconómicas recientes, la sexta entrada se discute el concepto de ‘Tecnofeuda-lismo’ como una subsiguiente etapa del imperialismo; y finalmente se presentan conclusiones hilando sobre lo expuesto. |
| Keywords: | Financiarización; IED; Tecnofeudalismo; Pensamiento Económico; Historia Económica; Economía Política; Crisis. |
| JEL: | E44 F54 N20 |
| Date: | 2022–11–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000538:000045 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Money rules the world. But the importance of money is far greater than conventional economic theory and its heroic equations suggest. People have invented their own forms of currency, they have used money in ways that baffle market theorists, they have incorporated money into friendship and family relationships, and they have changed the process of spending and saving. Individuals, families, governments and businesses have given money a social meaning in ways that economists could not even dream of before. A century ago, Georg Simmel, in his Philosophy of Money, pointed to various systems of exchange for goods and services that made possible the existence of incomparable value systems (land, food, honour, love, etc.) that supposedly made personal freedom possible. More recently, Ariel Wilkis brought Pierre Bourdieu's sociology of power into dialogue with Viviana Zelizer's sociology of money. He showed that money is a crucial symbol used to negotiate not only material possessions but also the political, economic, class, gender and generational ties between people. The growing threat of international terrorism has raised awareness that its existence is in itself an economic fact, as it is financed in various ways. The Moral Money Summit Africa, to be held in Johannesburg, South Africa, in November 2023, aims to unlock capital to promote sustainable growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This is overdue, considering that multinational companies in SSA have been polluting the environment for decades and that corruption, money laundering, investments in conflict diamonds, arms and drug trafficking are widespread. The summit aims to answer questions such as: What role can Africa play in the global decarbonisation dilemma? How can ethics be ensured in commodity supply chains? How can ethical investors avoid investing in "sin stocks" such as "blood diamonds", arms and drug trafficking? However, given the unbroken power of multinational corporations and investment managers, the outcome of such summits is questionable. Comparative analyses of ESG awareness and frameworks in Anglophone, Francophone and Lusophone African countries reveal significant differences. The most powerful three global asset managers, BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street, still show "rational restraint", especially with regard to firm-specific sustainability activism. Also they can use their power to engage in "rational hypocrisy", similar to corporate |
| Abstract: | Geld regiert die Welt. Die Bedeutung des Geldes ist jedoch weitaus größer, als die konventionelle Wirtschaftstheorie und ihre heroischen Gleichungen vermuten lassen. Die Menschen haben ihre eigenen Währungsformen erfunden, sie haben Geld auf eine Art und Weise verwendet, die Markttheoretiker vor ein Rätsel stellt, sie haben Geld in Freundschafts- und Familienbeziehungen eingebunden und den Prozess des Ausgebens und Sparens verändert. Einzelpersonen, Familien, Regierungen und Unternehmen haben dem Geld in einer Weise eine soziale Bedeutung verliehen, von der Wirtschaftswissenschaftler bisher nicht einmal träumen konnten. Bereits vor einem Jahrhundert wies Georg Simmel in seiner Philosophie des Geldes auf verschiedene Tauschsysteme für Waren und Dienstleistungen hin, die die Existenz unvergleichlicher Wertesysteme (Land, Nahrung, Ehre, Liebe usw.) ermöglichten, die angeblich die persönliche Freiheit ermöglichten. In jüngerer Zeit brachte Ariel Wilkis die Soziologie der Macht von Pierre Bourdieu mit der Soziologie des Geldes von Viviana Zelizer in einen Dialog. Er zeigte, dass Geld ein entscheidendes Symbol ist, mit dem nicht nur materieller Besitz, sondern auch die politischen, wirtschaftlichen, klassen-, geschlechts- und generationsbedingten Bindungen zwischen Menschen verhandelt werden. Die wachsende Bedrohung durch den internationalen Terrorismus hat das Bewusstsein dafür geschärft, dass dessen Existenz an sich eine wirtschaftliche Tatsache ist, da er auf verschiedene Weise finanziert wird. Der Moral Money Summit Africa, der im November 2023 in Johannesburg, Südafrika, stattfinden soll, zielt darauf ab, Kapital freizusetzen, um nachhaltiges Wachstum in Subsahara-Afrika (SSA) zu fördern. Dies wäre überfällig, wenn man bedenkt, dass multinationale Unternehmen in SSA seit Jahrzehnten die Umwelt verschmutzen und Korruption, Geldwäsche, Investitionen in Konfliktdiamanten, Waffen- und Drogenhandel weit verbreitet sind. Ziel des Gipfels ist es, Fragen zu beantworten wie: Welche Rolle kann Afrika in dem globalen Dekarbonisierungsdilemma spielen? Wie kann die Ethik in den Rohstofflieferketten sichergestellt werden? Wie können ethische Investoren Investitionen in "Sündenaktien" wie "Blutdiamanten", Waffen- und Drogenhandel vermeiden? Angesichts der ungebrochenen Macht der multinationalen Konzerne und Investmentmanager ist das Ergebnis solcher Gipfeltreffen jedoch fraglich. Vergleichende Analysen des ESG-Bewusstseins und der ESG-Rahmenbedingungen in anglophonen, frankophonen und lusophonen afrikanischen Ländern zeigen erhebliche Unterschiede auf. Die drei mächtigsten globalen Vermögensverwalter, BlackRock, Vanguard und State Street, zeigen nach wie vor "rationale Zurückhaltung", insbesondere in Bezug auf firmenspezifischen Nachhaltigkeitsaktivismus. Auch sie können ihre Macht nutzen, um "rationale Heuchelei" zu betreiben, ähnlich wie beim Greenwashing von Unternehmen.. |
| Keywords: | Ethical banking, ESG, International financial institutions, norm entrepreneur, commercial banks, Sub-Saharan Africa, post-colonialism, informal sector |
| JEL: | B55 D25 D64 E52 F22 F54 I31 L26 N17 O55 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:300926 |
| By: | Menda, Emir |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between cryptocurrency adoption and stock market capitalization across countries, while controlling for GDP per capita. Using cross-sectional data from 154 countries, we employ ordinary least squares regression to analyze this relationship. The findings reveal a statistically significant positive association between cryptocurrency adoption and stock market capitalization. Specifically, that a one-unit increase in the cryptocurrency adoption score is associated with a 182.614 percentage point increase in stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP. In addition, GDP per capita shows a significant positive relationship with stock market capitalization, confirming the connection between economic development and financial market depth. These results suggest that cryptocurrency adoption complements traditional financial markets rather than substituting, offering important insights for policymakers, investors, and researchers in understanding the evolving financial landscape. This study contributes to the growing literature on cryptocurrency markets by providing a broader, cross-country perspective on how digital currency growth affects traditional financial markets. Our findings have implications for financial market development, economic policy, and investment strategies in an increasingly digitalized global economy. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency adoption; Stock market capitalization; Cross-country analysis; Financial markets; Economic development |
| JEL: | G00 |
| Date: | 2024–08–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121792 |
| By: | Maximilian Osterhaus |
| Abstract: | A severe limitation of many nonparametric estimators for random coefficient models is the exponential increase of the number of parameters in the number of random coefficients included into the model. This property, known as the curse of dimensionality, restricts the application of such estimators to models with moderately few random coefficients. This paper proposes a scalable nonparametric estimator for high-dimensional random coefficient models. The estimator uses a truncated tensor product of one-dimensional hierarchical basis functions to approximate the underlying random coefficients' distribution. Due to the truncation, the number of parameters increases at a much slower rate than in the regular tensor product basis, rendering the nonparametric estimation of high-dimensional random coefficient models feasible. The derived estimator allows estimating the underlying distribution with constrained least squares, making the approach computationally simple and fast. Monte Carlo experiments and an application to data on the regulation of air pollution illustrate the good performance of the estimator. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.07185 |
| By: | Gardner, Charles (Mercury Publication) |
| Abstract: | Minimum lot sizes are perhaps the most common form of land use regulation in the United States and one of the most important for determining the form and density of urban areas. American jurisprudence regarding lot minimums has nonetheless been plagued b |
| Date: | 2023–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajw:wpaper:12482 |
| By: | Yassine JAOUI (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Mouna HILMI (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, career transition has become a favorite subject for many researchers who are trying to understand and explain why a worker changes job sector or activity, often without any relation to skills, expectations, or aspirations with the old job. Individuals are constantly looking for ways to improve their working conditions and quality of life, consequently they won't hesitate to open to new horizons if their job doesn't give them satisfaction or when they find themselves drawn in by new professional and biographical objectives. This article seeks to trace the different variables that explain professional career change, based on the literature evoking the question of professional reconversion. It will then develop a conceptual model to determine the causal relationship between these variables and the decision to change jobs and start a new career path. In this context, we have found a variety of factors that determine these professional transitions. They are linked mainly to personality traits such as aspirations, motivations, and personality, as well as organizational (intrinsic, extrinsic, or interpersonal elements) and demographic (age, gender, marital status, and human capital variables) elements. Based on our conceptual model, we will develop hypotheses that we will subsequently test in an empirical study to validate and confirm them. We are thus pursuing a positivist working method. We aim to explain natural phenomena in the field using a well-adapted scientific methodology. Our sample will comprise around 400 workers who have undergone or are attracted by a career transition experience. Based on the hypotheses we developed from the literature review, we have designed a relevant conceptual model explaining the relationship between several variables and career path change. |
| Abstract: | La reconversion professionnelle devient ces dernières années, un sujet de prédilection pour beaucoup de chercheurs, qui tentent de comprendre et d'expliquer pourquoi un travailleur change de métier, de secteur ou d'activité, souvent sans relation en termes de compétences, d'attentes et d'aspirations avec l'ancien métier. L'individu est en quête permanente pour améliorer ses conditions de travail et sa qualité de vie, c'est pourquoi, il n'hésitera pas à s'ouvrir sur de nouveaux horizons si son travail ne lui donne pas satisfaction ou lorsqu'il se trouve aspirer par de nouveaux objectifs professionnels et biographiques. Cet article cherche à retracer les différentes variables qui expliquent le changement de carrière professionnelle, en se basant sur la littérature évoquant la question de la reconversion professionnelle. Ceux-ci fait, il sera ensuite l'objet, d'élaborer un modèle conceptuel permettant de déterminer la relation de causalité qui existe entre ces variables et la décision de changer de métier et de commencer une nouvelle trajectoire professionnelle. Dans ce contexte nous avons trouvé une variété de facteurs qui déterminent ces transitions professionnelles. Ils sont liés principalement aux traits de personnalités comme les aspirations, les motivations et la personnalité de l'individu, comme ils sont le fruit d'éléments organisationnels (éléments intrinsèques, extrinsèques ou interpersonnels) et démographiques (l'âge, le sexe, la situation matrimoniale et les variables du capital humain). Sur la base de notre modèle conceptuel, nous allons développer des hypothèses que nous testerons ultérieurement, dans une étude empirique pour les valider et les confirmer. Nous poursuivons ainsi, une méthode de travail positiviste. On vise à expliquer des phénomènes naturels sur le terrain à travers une méthodologie scientifique bien adaptée. Notre échantillon sera composé d'environ 400 travailleurs ayant passé où sont attirés par une expérience de reconversion professionnelle. Sur la base des hypothèses que nous avons développés à partir de la revue de littérature, nous avons conçu un modèle conceptuel pertinent expliquant la relation qui existe entre plusieurs variables et le changement de trajectoire professionnelle. |
| Keywords: | Reconversion, Conceptual model, Explanatory factors, Career path, Bifurcation, Modèle conceptuel, Facteurs explicatifs, Trajectoire professionnelle |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04666953 |
| By: | Jurkatis, Simon (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Since 2018, EU and UK financial markets regulators have been in receipt of data on transactions in debt instruments, such as corporate bonds, reported under the Markets in Financial Instrument Regulation. The data gives regulators a more detailed and broader view of trading in these instruments than previously. Reports submitted under this framework, however, come with a number of unique challenges that require careful consideration. Among those challenges are that reports are not submitted in a completely standardised way, that prices and quantities can be reported in different units, and that reports may be submitted by both counterparties of a transaction. This paper describes an approach for handling these issues for transaction reports on corporate bonds, with the aim of helping to enhance the data quality and supporting robust research into this market. |
| Keywords: | Corporate bonds; data cleaning; deduplication; outlier detection. |
| JEL: | C55 C58 C81 G10 |
| Date: | 2024–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1071 |
| By: | Zhe Yuan; Panle Jia Barwick |
| Abstract: | The Hub-and-Spoke network is a defining feature of the airline industry. This paper is among the first in the literature to introduce an empirical framework for analyzing network competition among airlines. Airlines make market entry decisions and choose flight frequencies in the first stage, followed by price competition to attract passengers in the second stage. A key feature of this model is the linkage between direct and indirect flights, which is described by a technological relationship (and estimated using data) that proxies the Hub-and-Spoke network. The paper estimates the marginal costs of serving passengers and operating flights using first-order conditions, bounds the entry costs using inequalities derived from the reveal-preference argument, and employs a state-of-the-art econometric method to conduct inference for entry cost parameters. Ignoring network externality underestimates the benefits of operating an additional flight by 13.2%, and airlines would schedule 21.53% fewer one-stop flights had they made flight operation decisions independently for each market. To evaluate the impact of a hypothetical merger, the paper proposes a novel equilibrium concept that makes it feasible to compute the industry equilibria. Counterfactual analyses indicate that a hypothetical merger between Alaska and Virgin America would increase consumer surplus as the merged airline would offer direct flights in 10% more markets while the overall post-merger price effect would likely be muted. |
| JEL: | C51 L13 L14 L93 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32893 |
| By: | Brussig, Martin |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Report untersucht die Situation von Personen, die aufgrund langer Versicherungszeiten frühzeitig in Rente wechseln können, ihren Rentenbeginn aber bis zur Regelaltersrente aufschieben. Etwa elf Prozent der Zugänge in Altersrente des Jahrgangs 1954 sind der Gruppe der späten Renteneintritte zuzurechnen, wobei die Größe dieser Gruppe aufgrund der gewählten konservativen Definition eine Untergrenze darstellt. Mit der Einführung der Altersrente für besonders langjährig Versicherte ("Rente mit 63") hat sich die Anzahl der Personen mit späten Renteneintritten schlagartig nahezu halbiert. Danach ist sie mit fast jeder nachrückenden Geburtskohorte leicht gestiegen. Eine alternsgerechte Arbeitsgestaltung ist nach wie vor erforderlich, damit Beschäftigte bei guter Gesundheit überhaupt die späte Erwerbsphase erreichen. Erforderlich ist darüber hinaus, den Arbeitsprozess so zu gestalten, dass die Arbeit als sinnstiftend und bereichernd erlebt werden kann. Andernfalls wechseln viele der Älteren, die länger arbeiten könnten, in die verbliebenen Frühverrentungsmöglichkeiten. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iaqalt:301655 |
| By: | Thomas Blavet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, DREES - Direction de la recherche, des études, de l’évaluation et des statistiques [Paris] - Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé [Paris, France]) |
| Abstract: | En France, en 2021, 9, 3 millions de personnes déclarent apporter une aide régulière à un proche en situation de handicap ou de perte d'autonomie, que cette personne vive dans le même logement ou ailleurs. Cette aide peut prendre la forme d'une aide aux activités de la vie quotidienne, d'un soutien moral ou, pour les adultes, d'un soutien financier. Ainsi, 8, 8 millions d'adultes et 0, 5 million de mineurs de 5 ans ou plus sont proches aidants, soit respectivement un sur six et un sur vingt d'entre eux. Près d'une personne sur quatre de 55 à moins de 65 ans se déclare proche aidant. La part de ces derniers augmente avec l'âge jusqu'aux alentours de 60 ans, puis tend à décroître ensuite. Les femmes déclarent plus souvent apporter une aide régulière dans les activités de la vie quotidienne ou un soutien moral, alors que les hommes apportent plus souvent une aide financière. La part de proches aidants fournissant une aide régulière aux activités de la vie quotidienne – aide qui nécessite une proximité géographique avec le proche aidé – est plus élevée à âge donné dans les départements et régions d'outre-mer (DROM), dans les Hauts-de-France et en Corse, territoires qui comptent également, à âge donné, un pourcentage plus élevé de personnes handicapées, que ce soit au titre d'une limitation sensorielle, physique ou cognitive sévère, ou bien au titre d'une forte limitation plus globale dans les activités de la vie quotidienne. |
| Keywords: | Proche aidant, Handicap, Perte d'autonomie |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:hal-04677789 |
| By: | Sigl, Lukas; Hirschauer, Norbert |
| Abstract: | Farmers are often advised to hedge their commodity prices on the commodity futures exchange, without sound scientific evidence to support this. This paper questions this rash advice and analyzes the impact of various hedging strategies based on wheat futures for a large sample of farms in Germany. Historical simulation is used to evaluate the hedging efficiency for 2, 197 German farms over a 21-year study period. Adopting a whole-farm economic risk approach, we use “adjusted farm profit” as performance indicator and measure for each of these farms which relative change in profit volatility would have been obtained by nine different hedging strategies. A cluster analysis was used to identify whether there are farm types that show particularly low or high hedging efficiencies. Contrary to expectations, hedging would not have reduced but slightly increased profit volatility in most cases and across different regions, farm types, and farm sizes. In addition, hedging would have led to a reduction in profit levels in most cases due to hedging costs and/or speculative losses. In other words, the majority of the farms would not have been able to “beat the market” and hedging would have led to per-verse effects, as it would have caused costs, but instead of the desired reduction of whole-farm risk, it would have increased risk. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the effects of hedging based on wheat futures contracts. Unlike previous hedging studies that used synthetic farm models or rather small samples, we use a whole-farm economic risk approach and conduct a large-scale study of 2, 197 individual farms over a 21-year study period. The study results cast substantial doubt on the conventional wisdom that farmers should be more willing to include hedging as “innovative” tool into their risk management. |
| Date: | 2024–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pvq9t |
| By: | Jozef Barunik; Martin Hronec; Ondrej Tobek |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a method for accurately predicting the full distribution of stock returns, given a comprehensive set of 194 stock characteristics and market variables. Such distributions, learned from rich data using a machine learning algorithm, are not constrained by restrictive model assumptions and allow the exploration of non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed data and their non-linear interactions. The method uses a two-stage quantile neural network combined with spline interpolation. The results show that the proposed approach outperforms alternative models in terms of out-of-sample losses. Furthermore, we show that the moments derived from such distributions can be useful as alternative empirical estimates in many cases, including mean estimation and forecasting. Finally, we examine the relationship between cross-sectional returns and several distributional characteristics. The results are robust to a wide range of US and international data. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.07497 |
| By: | McLaughlin, Eoin; Pecchenino, Rowena A. |
| Abstract: | In the decade before the Great Famine, Ireland experienced a boom in microfinance institutions (MFIs). Taking a social enterprise perspective, this paper analyses the institutional context for this boom. It finds evidence linking the boom in MFIs to the development, via the introduction of the poor law in 1838, of a nascent welfare state at the end of a very turbulent period in Irish history. Many contemporary writers saw microfinance as a legal means that could lessen the burden on rate payers by helping the poor help themselves. Econometric analysis at the level of the Poor Law Union confirms the link between MFIs, an Irish solution, and the poor law, a British solution, to Ireland's chronic poverty. The goal of the Irish solution was to address what was perceived to be the cause of poverty, a want of capital, while the British solution addressed the symptoms of poverty but not its root cause. |
| Keywords: | social enterprise, microfinance, inequality, development, Ireland, social enterprise, microfinance, inequality, development, Ireland |
| JEL: | G21 H75 I38 N23 N33 N83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwuaef:301872 |
| By: | Benček, David; Schneiderheinze, Claas |
| Abstract: | Comparing emigration rates of countries at different stages of economic development, an inverse u-shape emerges. Since the “migration hump” peaks at an average income of 6000 to 10 000 USD, economic progress in developing countries is often assumed to increase migration consistently. However, it is poorly understood to what extend country-level characteristics, individual incomes and other dimensions of development evoke this pattern, which limits its value for causal inference and concrete policy advice. In this paper we focus on the role of economic growth and investigate whether in developing countries emigration indeed increases with economic progress at shorter more policy-relevant time periods of up to 10 years. Using 35 years of data on migration flows to OECD destinations, we successfully reproduce the hump-shape in the cross-section. However, our more rigorous fixed effects panel estimations that exploit the variation over time robustly feature contrasting results: emigration rates fall as incomes increase. This finding holds independent of the level of income a country starts out at. In contrast to prevailing development emigration narratives, our results imply that rising individual incomes discourage emigration and hence conducive economic policies can reduce emigration. Our findings do not rule out that other slow-moving development dimensions such as educational advancement, demographic change, and structural economic transformation could still increase migration in the long term. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Economic development, Development assistance |
| JEL: | F22 F63 O15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:301403 |
| By: | Aranco, Natalia; Bauhoff, Sebastian; Schwarz, Natalie Vanessa; Stampini, Marco |
| Abstract: | Prolonged hospital stays, or hospital stays that are longer than medically necessary, are a major concern for patients, payers, and providers. We conceptualize and empirically estimate the prevalence and cost of prolonged stays among elderly hospital patients (65 years and older) in Brazil and Mexico. We develop a continuum-of-care conceptual framework based on prior literature and insights obtained through interviews and focus group discussions with experts from Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia. In this framework, hospitals are part of a wider system. This system involves both pre-admission and post-discharge medical and social care services. There are three main sources of prolonged stays: (i) lack of appropriate primary healthcare that leads to more complex admissions; (ii) hospital inefficiency; and (iii) lack of rehabilitation, social, and long-term care at discharge. We estimate the count and share of inappropriate hospital days due to prolonged stays overall and for each source. This estimation is based on administrative records on discharges from public sector hospitals in 2019. Our results show that hospital days due to prolonged stays account for approximately half of all hospital days. Although most of the inappropriate days can be attributed to hospital inefficiency (36% in Brazil and 49% in Mexico), an important share is linked to the lack of rehabilitation, social, and long-term care. Lack of these services accounts for 12% of total hospital days in Brazil and 7% in Mexico. In a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that providing six weeks of long-term care services to address the care needs brought about by only thirteen causes of admission would generate annual net savings of approximately US$174 million per year in Brazil and US$45 million in Mexico. |
| Keywords: | Healthcare costs;prolonged hospitalizations;primary health care;long-term care;medical care;population aging;older persons;public policy;social care;rehabilitation care |
| JEL: | I10 J14 H55 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13701 |
| By: | Adamecz, Anna (University College London); Lovász, Anna (University of Washington Tacoma); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the relationship between higher education and fertility, focusing on how intergenerational educational mobility shapes this dynamic. Using the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate gaps in completed fertility, distinguishing between those who are the first in their family to graduate from a university (FiF), graduates with a graduate parent, and non-graduates. Our findings reveal that while on average, graduate women have fewer children than non-graduates, this difference is driven by FiF graduates. FiF women tend to have fewer children than both non-FiF graduates and non-graduates, who exhibit similar fertility rates. The fertility gap between FiF and non-FiF graduates emerges after age 35, mainly on the extensive margin: FiF women are more likely to remain childless, but those who become mothers have an equal average number of children. Similar patterns are observed among men, although the gaps are smaller and not statistically significant. We identify child-related preferences, self-esteem, and maternal employment in childhood as potential explanations behind the FiF fertility gap, while labour market outcomes, financial constraints, partnerships, and health do not appear to play a role. These findings underscore important considerations for supporting inter-generational mobility and fertility. |
| Keywords: | first in family graduates, fertility, childlessness, inter-generational educational mobility, gender economics |
| JEL: | I26 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17216 |
| By: | Lassen, Anne Sophie; Ivandić, Ria |
| Abstract: | Women continue to be underrepresented in the field of economics, especially among permanent faculty. As parenthood is an important driver of gender inequality in the labor market, we study the impact of children on the academic careers of economists. We find no evidence of delayed or reduced fertility among researchers. Event study estimates reveal that both men's and women's career trajectories are affected by parenthood and face increasing attrition from universities. Men move into the broader research sector, while women leave research completely. We also find a gender gap in the promotion to tenured faculty in the years following parenthood. |
| JEL: | A11 A20 I23 J13 J16 J44 M51 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124310 |
| By: | Lee, Hane; Sobel, Michael |
| Abstract: | Although the topic of opinion polarization receives much attention from the media, public opinion researchers and political scientists, the phenomenon itself has not been adequately characterized in either the lay or academic literature. To study opinion polarization among the public, researchers compare the distributions of respondents to survey questions or track the distribution of responses to a question over time using ad-hoc methods and measures such as visual comparisons, variances, and bimodality coefficients. To remedy this situation, we build on the axiomatic approach in the economics literature on income bipolarization, specifying key properties a measure of bipolarization should satisfy: in particular, it should increase as the distribution spreads away from a center toward the poles and/or as clustering below or above this center increases. We then show that measures of bipolarization used in public opinion research fail to satisfy one or more of these axioms. Next, we propose a p-Wasserstein polarization index that satisfies the axioms we set forth. Our index measures the dissimilarity between an observed distribution and a distribution with all the mass clustered on the lower and upper endpoints of the scale. We use our index to examine bipolarization in attitudes toward governmental COVID-19 vaccine mandates across 11 countries, finding the U.S and U.K are most polarized, China, France and India the least polarized, while the others (Brazil, Australia, Colombia, Canada, Italy, Spain) occupy an intermediate position. |
| Date: | 2024–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:etzh3 |