|
on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Babette Jansen (University of Antwerp); Roland Winkler (Friedrich Schiller University Jena, and University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | We consider a two-agent New Keynesian model with savers and hand-to-mouth households with quasi-separable utility functions as introduced by Bilbiie (2020a). This framework allows for separate parameterization of consumption-hours complementarity and income effects on labor supply. We examine how variations in the size of income effects, the degree of non-separability between consumption and hours worked, and the share of hand-to-mouth households impact aggregate dynamics and determinacy properties of interest rate rules. Complementarity between consumption and hours worked and small income effects can reverse the Taylor principle and result in expansionary monetary contractions. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneity, Monetary policy, Nonseparable preferences, Real indeterminacy, Taylor principle, TANK |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E58 E44 E24 |
| Date: | 2024–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2024-006 |
| By: | Pavel Trunin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexandra Bozheckkova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2023, monetary policy of the Bank of Russia continued to be implemented amid significant restrictions on capital movements, freezing of international reserve assets and trade restrictions, thereby creating additional risks for macroeconomic and financial stability. During 2023, inflation accelerated, driven by rapid growth of aggregate demand in Russia amid mild fiscal policy, as well as by transfer to prices of the ruble depreciation. This marked the beginning of tightening the monetary policy cycle in H2 2023. In H1, the regulator kept the key rate unchanged at 7.5% per annum, only tightening the key rate movement signal at each subsequent meeting. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, inflation, balance of payments, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2024-1322 |
| By: | Haowei Ni; Shuchen Meng; Xupeng Chen; Ziqing Zhao; Andi Chen; Panfeng Li; Shiyao Zhang; Qifu Yin; Yuanqing Wang; Yuxi Chan |
| Abstract: | Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.06634 |
| By: | Corentin Gariel (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Anne Bartel-Radic (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | La recherche en management vise de manière croissante à contribuer à la résolution des problèmes rencontrés par nos sociétés (changement climatique, pauvreté, crises migratoires), et ce, en mobilisant de plus en plus souvent le terme de grand challenges. Face à cet engouement s'élèvent néanmoins des critiques concernant le manque de cohérence et de différenciation d'un concept relativement nouveau pour la discipline. Cet article soulève la question de savoir comment les grand challenges, assimilables à un concept-ombrelle, peuvent passer les épreuves de validité et de rationalisation afin de rendre le concept plus robuste. Pour ce faire, cet article propose une cartographie de la littérature sur les grand challenges en s'appuyant sur une méthodologie mixte d'analyse bibliométrique, combinant la co-citation et le couplage bibliographique. En identifiant les racines intellectuelles et les différents courants de cette littérature, cet article caractérise la diversité de mobilisations des grand challenges ainsi que les incohérences qui en découlent. Les faiblesses actuelles du concept de grand challenges nécessitent ainsi une clarification de ses attributs. Nous identifions alors les enjeux et les modalités de cette redéfinition et discutons des possibilités de développement théorique du champ. |
| Keywords: | bibliométrie, concept, grand challenges, ODD |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04645566 |
| By: | Adan L. Martinez Cruz; Yadira Elizabeth Peralta Torres (Division of Economics, CIDE); Valeria Garcia Olivera |
| Abstract: | The travel cost (TC) method models the number of trips to a recreation site as a function of the costs to reach that site. The single site TC equation is particularly vulnerable to endogeneity since travel costs are chosen by the visitor. This paper suggests a control function approach that breaks the correlation between travel costs and the error term by plugging inferred omitted variables into the TC equation. Inference of omitted variables is carried out on an endogenous free, stated preference equation that, arguably, shares omitted variables with the TC equation. By revisiting the TC and contingent valuation (CV) data analyzed by Fixand Loomis (1998), this paper infers the omitted variables from the CV equation via a finite mixture specification -an inference strategy whose justification resembles the use of heteroscedastic errors to construct instruments as suggested by Lewbel (2012). Results show that not controlling for endogeneity in this particular case produces an overestimation of welfare measures. Importantly, this infer and plug-in strategy is pursuable in a number of contexts beyond recreation demand applications. |
| Keywords: | Travel cost method, endogeneity, stated preference responses, control function |
| JEL: | Q26 C26 C29 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte632 |
| By: | Anders Brownworth; Jon Durfee; Michael Junho Lee; Antoine Martin |
| Abstract: | Blockchain-based systems are run by a decentralized network of participants and are designed to be censorship-resistant. We use sanctions imposed by the U.S. Department of Treasury on Tornado Cash (TC), a smart contract protocol, to study the impact and effectiveness of regulation in decentralized systems. We document an immediate and lasting impact on TC following the sanction announcement, measured by market reaction, transaction volume, and diversity of users. Still, net flows into TC contracts recover to and surpass pre-announcement levels for most pools, supporting viability of TC. Evidence on cooperation at the settlement layer is mixed: the aggregate share of non-cooperative blocks increases over time, but a shrinking number of actors process Tornado Cash transactions, indicating a fragility to the sustainability of censorship-resistance. Non-cooperation is not explained by tokenomics, and changes in perception around legal authority and clarity of regulation appears to be a key factor for whether to cooperate. |
| Keywords: | Decentralized systems, Digital assets, Privacy, Regulation, Sanctions |
| JEL: | G18 G28 G29 D40 F51 O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2024-09 |
| By: | Christa N. Gibbs; Benedict Guttman-Kenney; Donghoon Lee; Scott T. Nelson; Wilbert H. van der Klaauw; Jialan Wang |
| Abstract: | Since the 2000s, economists across fields have increasingly used consumer credit reporting data for research. We introduce readers to the economics of and the institutional details of these data. Using examples from the literature, we provide practical guidance on how to use these data to construct economic measures of borrowing, consumption, credit access, financial distress, and geographic mobility. We explain what credit scores measure, and why. We highlight how researchers can access credit reporting data via existing datasets or by creating new datasets, including by linking credit reporting data with surveys and external datasets. |
| JEL: | D10 D82 E21 G50 H31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32791 |
| By: | Mawdsley, John (HEC Paris); Paolella, Lionel (University of Cambridge- Judge Business School); Durand, Rodolphe (HEC Paris) |
| Abstract: | We offer a rivalry-based perspective of gender diversity as a form of competitive action. We theorize that a firm adjusts its senior-level female representation when they identify business opportunities that may be seized by demonstrating alignment to gender parity expectations. Examining US corporate law firms and potential buyers of their services, we theorize and find that when the buyers of rivals of the focal firm increase their gender diversity, the focal firm responds by increasing its female partner representation. Reinforcing the strategic approach to managing gender diversity, we also show that a focal firm reduces its gender-related response to rivals’ buyers as the opportunity to attract those buyers decreases, and when the focal firm can use racial diversity as a credible substitute for gender diversity. |
| Keywords: | Gender diversity; Competitive positioning; Rivalry; Strategic human capital; Buyer-supplier relationships; Professional service firms |
| JEL: | M14 |
| Date: | 2022–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1460 |
| By: | Schöneberg, Katharina; Schmid, Katrin |
| Abstract: | Die deutsche Zuckerindustrie ist in der EU weiterhin bedeutend, aber von politischen Rahmenbedingungen - wie Marktmaßnahmen und handelspolitischen Strategien der EU, dem Ende der Zuckerquote, Umweltauflagen und Ernährungspolitik - und von Herausforderungen wie veränderten Verbraucherpräferenzen beeinflusst. Angesichts des verschärften Fachkräftemangels und steigender Belastungen spielen Mitbestimmung und Interessenvertretung eine wichtige Rolle, um Arbeit zu gestalten und den aktuellen Anforderungen gerecht zu werden. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:300718 |
| By: | Liu, Pengcheng; Xie, Qing; You, Yi; Dong, Qingqing |
| Abstract: | Consumers are presented with increasingly difficult choice tasks and are experiencing more choice overload during the decision-making process. Based on the emotion-imbued choice model and incorporating subjective state consequences into the framework of experienced utility, this research constructed a systematic scale to measure choice overload in several decision-making stages. This research conducted three experiments using liquid milk as a consumption product to test whether choice overload would be influenced by increasing the number of attributes, adding similar options, and information nudges, and whether this effect would be heterogeneous in consumer characteristics. Results indicate that more attributes and the addition of similar options would increase the perceived difficulty of choice and result in negative emotions, while information nudges might lessen choice overload and help consumers make decisions. Besides, consumers’ pursuit of maximization also determines their perceived choice overload; maximizers are more likely to experience choice overload than satisficers. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344272 |
| By: | Rang, Reiner; Schmitt, Heinz |
| Abstract: | Mit der Covid-Pandemie rückte die Pflegebranche in den Fokus der Öffentlichkeit, im Blick von Finanzinvestoren war sie schon früher: 2018 lag die Pflegebranche bei den Aktivitäten von Private-Equity-Investoren an erster Stelle, 2022 gehörten rund 30 Prozent der Pflegeheimplätze in Deutschland Private Equity. Die Studie führt in die Vorgehensweise von Finanzinvestoren ein, beschreibt Ausgangssituation und Motivation der Akteure und untersucht mögliche Auswirkungen auf die betriebliche Mitbestimmung. Teil der Studie sind die Ergebnisse einer Befragung der Beschäftigten und betrieblichen Interessenvertretungen. |
| Keywords: | Privat-Equity-Gesellschaften, Unternehmenssteuerung, Pflegesektor, Pflegeheim, Betriebsrat |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:300720 |
| By: | Jamel Saadaoui (University of Paris 8) |
| Abstract: | This note explores the impact of geopolitical relationships between the US and China on the oil price. Using time-varying local projections, my analysis reveals that these dynamic effects are unstable over time. Indeed, these effects have been more observable since the global financial crisis, with China being increasingly perceived as a threat in the U.S. Instability is detected around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, geopolitical risks and political tensions influence oil price at different time horizons. |
| Keywords: | Time-Varying Local Projections, China, Oil Price, Political Relations, Geopolitical Risks, Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19 pandemic |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.13 |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen; Melanie Khamis; Hartmut Lehmann; Norberto Pignatti |
| Abstract: | Using data from the four waves of the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - ULMS (2003, 2004, 2007 and 2012), we analyze whether workers with a higher willingness to take risks are more likely to select into informal employment contracts. The data permit us to distinguish between five employment states: formal and informal self-employment, formal salaried employment, voluntary informal salaried employment, and involuntary informal salaried employment. The empirical evidence reveals risk attitudes as a strong causal determinant of the incidence of all types of informal employment but involuntary informal salaried employment. We also provide evidence that our results are not driven by reverse causality: risk attitudes impact on the choice of employment state whilst this latter does not influence risk attitudes. Linking risk attitudes with selection into employment states, we also can establish that along the formal-informal divide the Ukrainian labor market is predominantly segmented for salaried workers whilst it is integrated for the self-employed. |
| Keywords: | Risk attitudes, informal employment, labor market segmentation, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D91 J42 J46 P23 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_588 |
| By: | Diehl, Claudia; Pomianowicz, Katja; Hinz, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Based on an innovative survey of seventh graders in German secondary schools, this paper analyzes students' feelings that they should be on a higher educational track, We show that ethnic minority students are not only more likely than majority students to be placed in the lowest track, but they are also more likely to perceive this track placement as a mismatch, We test two explanations for this "perception gap" between the two groups, First, minority students may actually be more likely than majority students to be placed in a track that is too low for them (exposure to unfair treatment), Second, they are more likely than majority students to attend the lower educational tracks and to have highly ambitious parents, As a result, they may feel a greater need to attribute their limited educational success to unfair treatment in order to protect their self-esteem (ex-post rationalization of failure), We find that, compared to majority students, minority students' perceptions of being on the wrong track do not primarily reflect unfair treatment, Rather, it is high and unmet parental expectations that account for the "perception gap" between majority and minority students. |
| Keywords: | educational inequality, educational aspirations, perceptions of inequality, school tracking, children of immigrants |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300839 |
| By: | Cronin, C.J.;; Harris, M. C.;; Ziebarth, N. R.; |
| Abstract: | We study how public school teachers use paid leave. Most U.S. sick leave schemes operate as individualized credit accounts—paid leave is earned and unused leave accumulates, producing an employee-specific leave balance. We construct an administrative data set containing the daily balances and leave behavior of 982 teachers from 2010-2018. We find that ick leave use increases during flu season. We do not find evidence that the average teacher uses sick leave for leisure; however, there is evidence of such behavior among certain sub -sets of teachers (e.g., young, inexperienced teachers). Usage increases with leave balance; the elasticity is between 0.38-0.45. Further, higher balances reduce the likelihood that teachers work sick, particularly during flu season. |
| Keywords: | sick leave; teacher absence; presenteeism; moral hazard; labor supply ; |
| JEL: | I12 I13 I18 I28 J22 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:24/10 |
| By: | Tracy Patricia Nindry Abigail Rolnmuch; Yuhana Astuti |
| Abstract: | The realization of FDI and DDI from January to December 2022 reached Rp1, 207.2 trillion. The largest FDI investment realization by sector was led by the Basic Metal, Metal Goods, Non-Machinery, and Equipment Industry sector, followed by the Mining sector and the Electricity, Gas, and Water sector. The uneven amount of FDI investment realization in each industry and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia are the main issues addressed in this study. This study aims to identify the factors that influence the entry of FDI into industries in Indonesia and measure the extent of these factors' influence on the entry of FDI. In this study, classical assumption tests and hypothesis tests are conducted to investigate whether the research model is robust enough to provide strategic options nationally. Moreover, this study uses the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The results show that the electricity factor does not influence FDI inflows in the three industries. The Human Development Index (HDI) factor has a significant negative effect on FDI in the Mining Industry and a significant positive effect on FDI in the Basic Metal, Metal Goods, Non-Machinery, and Equipment Industries. However, HDI does not influence FDI in the Electricity, Gas, and Water Industries in Indonesia. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.01985 |
| By: | Nina Graveline (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Alexandre Alix (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Marta Debolini (EMMAH - Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes - AU - Avignon Université - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); David Dorchies (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Katrin Erdlenbruch (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Juliette Le Gallo (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sébastien Loubier (UMR G-EAU - Gestion de l'Eau, Acteurs, Usages - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AgroParisTech - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Jean-Marc Touzard (UMR Innovation - Innovation et Développement dans l'Agriculture et l'Alimentation - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Adaptation strategy, Participative research, Aude |
| Date: | 2023–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04651558 |
| By: | Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Grupo Estudios del Trabajo |
| Abstract: | En esta nueva edición del Informe Sociolaboral del Partido de General Pueyrredon se analiza el impacto de las políticas económicas sobre mercado laboral local y nacional hasta el primer trimestre de 2024. En el plano macroeconómico se observa una contracción del ingreso acompañada por resultados superavitarios en los planos fiscal y externo, ocasionados principalmente por un drástico recorte en las erogaciones públicas y en los pagos de importaciones respectivamente. La política económica contractiva implementada por la actual gestión tiene como contrapartida, además de la caída del producto, una significativa reducción en el poder de compra de salarios y jubilaciones. En el escenario laboral se presentan diferencias a nivel local y nacional. En el total aglomerados, en términos interanuales disminuyeron las tasas de actividad (al 48, 0%) y de empleo (44, 3%), mientras que aumentaron la de desocupación (7, 7%) y de subocupación (10, 2%). Asimismo, cayó la cantidad asalariados registrados en el sector privado (principalmente en la rama Construcción), como también de independientes autónomos y asalariadas de casas particulares. La contraparte fue un aumento sustantivo de monotributistas y en menor medida de asalariados del sector público. Por su parte, en Mar del Plata la tasa de actividad aumentó al 49, 8%, la tasa de empleo se mantuvo en el 46, 9% y la de desocupación aumentó al 5, 9%. Es probable que esta dinámica se encuentre explicada por una combinación de aspectos estacionales y aumento de la informalidad. Asimismo, disminuyó la tasa de subocupación (12, 3%) y la presión general en el mercado de trabajo se mantiene cercana a mínimos históricos (17, 9%). |
| Keywords: | Análisis Económico; Macroeconomía; Mercado de Trabajo; Empleo; Mar del Plata; Batán; Partido de General Pueyrredon; |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4148 |
| By: | Busch, Berthold; Kauder, Björn; Sultan, Samina |
| Abstract: | Für den EU-Haushalt werden in diesem Report durch eine Gegenüberstellung der Zahlungen der Mitgliedstaaten und den Rückflüssen aus dem EU-Haushalt die Nettopositionen bestimmt. Die deutsche Nettoposition ist im Jahr 2023 leicht gegenüber dem Vorjahr zurückgegangen, von 19, 7 Milliarden Euro auf 17, 4 Milliarden Euro. Sie liegt damit aber immer noch deutlich höher als in der Vor-Brexit-Zeit. Im Durchschnitt der Jahre 2014 bis 2020, dem letzten Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen, waren es 13, 5 Milliarden Euro. Deutschland ist damit weiterhin der größte Nettozahler in der Europäischen Union (EU) und liegt vor Frankreich, das im vergangenen Jahr knapp 9 Milliarden Euro mehr abführte als an Rückflüssen zu verzeichnen waren. Auf Platz drei reiht sich Italien mit einem Nettobeitrag von 4, 5 Milliarden Euro ein. Größter Nettoempfänger ist, wie im Vorjahr, Polen mit 8, 2 Milliarden Euro (2022: 11, 9 Milliarden Euro). Mit einigem Abstand dahinter liegen Rumänien und Ungarn mit 6, 0 und 4, 6 Milliarden Euro. |
| Abstract: | The German net position fell slightly in 2023 compared to the previous year, from 19.7 billion euros to 17.4 billion euros. However, it is still significantly higher than in the pre-Brexit period. The average for the years 2014 to 2020, the last Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), was 13.5 billion euros. Germany is therefore still the largest net contributor in the European Union (EU), ahead of France, which last year paid out almost 9 billion euros more than it received back. Italy is in third place with a net contribution of 4.5 billion euros. As in the previous year, the largest net recipient is Poland with 8.2 billion euros (2022: 11.9 billion euros). Romania and Hungary are some way behind with 6 billion euros and 4.6 billion euros, respectively. |
| Keywords: | EU-Haushalt, EU-Finanzbeziehungen, EU-Staaten |
| JEL: | H61 H77 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:301159 |
| By: | Francisca M. Antman; Brian Duncan; Michael F. Lovenheim |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the long-run impacts of banning affirmative action on men and women from under-represented minority (URM) racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Using data from the US Census and American Community Survey, we use a difference-in-differences framework to compare the college degree completion, graduate degree completion, earnings, and employment of URM individuals to non-URM individuals before and after affirmative action bans went into effect across several US states. We also employ event study analyses and alternative estimators to confirm the validity of our approach and discuss the generalizability of the findings. Results suggest that banning affirmative action results in a decline in URM women’s college degree completion, earnings, and employment relative to non-Hispanic White women, driven largely by impacts on Hispanic women. Thus, affirmative action bans resulted in an increase in racial/ethnic disparities in both college degree completion and earnings among women. Effects on URM men are more ambiguous and indicate significant heterogeneity across states, with some estimates pointing to a possible positive impact on labor market outcomes of Black men. These results suggest that the relative magnitude of college quality versus mismatch effects vary for URM men and women and highlight the importance of disaggregating results by gender, race, and ethnicity. We conclude by discussing how our results compare with others in the literature and directions for future research. |
| JEL: | I23 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32778 |
| By: | Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Anandamayee Majumdar (Department of Mathematics, San Francisco State University, California, USA); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany.); Onur Polat (Department of Public Finance, Bilecik Seyh Edebali University, Bilecik, Turkiye) |
| Abstract: | Using data that cover the annual period from 1258 to 2023, we studied the link between real gold returns and climate risks. We document a positive contemporaneous link and a negative predictive link. Our findings further show that the predictive link gave rise historically to significant out-of-sample forecasting gains. The positive contemporaneous link is consistent with the view that investors viewed gold as a safe haven in times of elevated climate risks. The negative predictive link, in turn, is consistent with an overshooting scenario in which the real gold price overshoots in response to climate risks only to return subsequently to a lower value. Our findings carry important implications for investors and policymakers, given that our analyses covers the longest possible data sample involving the gold market, and hence, is independent of any sample-selection bias. |
| Keywords: | Gold prices, Climate risks, Predictions |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C53 Q31 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202436 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The scope of this assessment covered fintech developments in Spain, including digitalization of the banking sector, and the supervisory oversight of fintech activity. This technical note covers the impact of fintech on regulated firms, mainly banks; the interaction between new market entrants and existing firms; the approach towards industry monitoring; and the institutional arrangements for regulation and supervision of fintech, including overall supervisory cooperation.1 The authorities under the scope of this analysis were the three sectoral financial supervisory authorities—Banco de España (BdE), Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV), and Directorate-General for Insurance and Pension Funds (DGSFP). The engagement with the Sandbox Coordination Commission and General Secretariat of the Treasury and International Financing (SGTFI) was focused on their respective roles in operating the regulatory sandbox. |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/264 |