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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2024‒08‒26
28 papers chosen by |
| By: | Vinci, Francesca; Schang, Christopher |
| Abstract: | The European fiscal governance framework remains incomplete, hindering policy coordination during economic shocks and affecting the transmission of the single monetary policy. High public debt and low public investment worsen resilience across Member States. Many policymakers, institutions, and academics support establishing a central fiscal capacity (CFC) as a solution. Against this backdrop, we propose a framework to assess a CFC in the euro area, aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, promoting sovereign debt sustainability, and reducing procyclicality in public investment. Our two-region DSGE model with a permanent CFC allocates resources based on the relative output gap while earmarking funds for public investment and imposing fiscal adjustment requirements for the high-debt region. The CFC enhances business cycle stabilization for both regions and significantly reduces the welfare cost of fluctuations. We also explore European bond issuance and a supranational investment strategy to address investment needs through European Public Goods. JEL Classification: E12, E32, E62, F45 |
| Keywords: | EU governance, European public goods, macroeconomic stabilisation, public debt sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242962 |
| By: | Krenz, Johanna; Tsiaras, Stylianos |
| Abstract: | We estimate the dynamic effects of a high-frequency identified unionwide quantitative easing (QE) shock on real GDP, inflation and unemployment in all euro area countries. We document that the effects of QE are very heterogenous across countries as regards size, significance and timing, especially with respect to GDP and unemployment. Exploiting the panel structure of our dataset, we show that the effect of QE on real GDP is amplified by a larger fraction of liquidity-constrained households in a country. The latter result seems to be driven by the general equilibrium impact of QE on unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative easing, inequality, LP-IV, DSGE, Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), Europe |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E24 C23 C26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:300655 |
| By: | Maria Petrova; Gregor Schubert; Bledi Taska; Pinar Yildirim |
| Abstract: | Career opportunities and expectations shape people’s decisions and can diminish over time. In this paper, we study the career implications of automation and robotization using a novel data set of resumes from approximately 16 million individuals from the United States. We calculate the lifetime "career value" of various occupations, combining (1) the likelihood of future transitions to other occupations, and (2) the earning potential of these occupations. We first document a downward trend in the growth of career values in the U.S. between 2000 and 2016. While wage growth slows down over this time period, the decline in the average career value growth is mainly due to reduced upward occupational mobility. We find that robotization contributes to the decline of average local labor market career values. One additional robot per 1000 workers decreased the average local market career value by $3.9K between 2004 and 2008 and by $2.48K between 2008 and 2016, corresponding to 1.7% and 1.1% of the average career values from the year 2000. In commuting zones that have been more exposed to robots, the average career value has declined further between 2000 and 2016. This decline was more pronounced for low-skilled individuals, with a substantial part of the decline coming from their reduced upward mobility. We document that other sources of mobility mitigate the negative effects of automation on career values. We also show that the changes in career values are predictive of investment in long-term outcomes, such as investment into schooling and housing, and voting for a populist candidate, as proxied by the vote share of Trump in 2016. We also find further evidence that automation affected both the demand side and supply side of politics. |
| JEL: | J01 L6 M0 M20 M29 M55 O14 O3 P0 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32655 |
| By: | Chand, Ramesh |
| Abstract: | Since the seminal work of Arthur Lewis (1954) on Dual Sector Economy, development economics literature has emphasised structural transformation of economy marked by decline in share of agriculture in economy’s output and employment as an economy grows from low income towards middle and higher income. Based on this literature, policy emphasis for growth and development tilted towards non agriculture sectors especially manufacturing. In some cases this even led to overlooking the role of agriculture in development, which is qualitatively different than role of non agriculture in growth and development. Of late, there is a realization that the importance of agriculture for economy and society is much larger than what is revealed by its share in GDP. This implies that changes in share of agriculture in GDP is not a best guide for policies on growth and development. Everywhere, changes in occupation structure followed changes in structure of output with a long time gap. In some of the emerging economies the two shares i.e. share of agriculture in GDP and workforce are moving parallel instead of showing convergence. This has serious implications for employment and disparities in per worker income in agriculture and non agriculture, which is further related to poverty. Hunger at global level and in a large number of countries is showing increase after 2015 despite increase in per capita food output. More than 3 billion people are reported to be unable to afford healthy diets in 2020. Agriculture is also significant contributor to climate change and unsustainable use of natural resources. Such trends are threatening life of people and planet. There is a pressing need to reimagine agriculture and its role in nutrition and health and for inclusive and sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344336 |
| By: | Bardt, Hubertus |
| Abstract: | Wenige Monate vor der Präsidentschaftswahl in den USA hat Donald Trump gute Chancen auf eine Wiederwahl. Auf Seiten der Demokraten hat der amtierende Präsident seine Kandidatur nach langem Zögern zurückgezogen, Vizepräsidentin Kamala Harris wird mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit für die Demokraten antreten. Für die Wirtschaftspolitik und die für Europa besonders relevanten Fragen der internationalen Politik sind damit sehr unterschiedliche Politikszenarien verbunden. Aus den Erfahrungen der beiden Amtszeiten Trump und Biden/Harris lassen sich Rückschlüsse auf die zukünftige Wirtschaftspolitik ziehen. Während Trump auf Steuersenkungen und Deregulierung setzte, haben Biden/Harris mit dem Inflation Reduction Act ein breites Unterstützungsprogramm aufgesetzt. Es ist zu vermuten, dass beide Politikansätze in einer zweiten Amtszeit weiter beziehungsweise wieder zum Tragen kommen würden und Kamala Harris die Politik der bisherigen Administration im Grundsatz fortsetzen würde. Der Inflation Reduction Act würde zwar nicht durch ein neues Programm in ähnlicher Dimension abgelöst, aber auch unter keinem der Präsidenten vollständig abgeschafft werden. Dazu sind die aus dem Programm finanzierten Investitionen auch unter Republikanern zu populär. Erhebliche Unterschiede gäbe es in der Steuerpolitik. Unter einer demokratischen Präsidentschaft würden Teile der Trumpschen Steuersenkungen nicht verlängert, insbesondere für Höchstverdienende. Unter Trump würde eine Fortsetzung der Politik der Steuersenkungen und eine weitere Deregulierung - auch und insbesondere mit Blick auf Klima- und Umweltanforderungen - erfolgen. Eine klimapolitische Selbstbindung wäre unter Trump ebenso unwahrscheinlich wie eine ambitionierte nationalen Klimapolitik. Im Gegenteil hat er den Ausbau fossiler Energieträger mit dem Ziel einer möglichst billigen Energieversorgung angekündigt. Der Blick auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der jeweiligen Amtszeiten kann kein eindeutiges Ergebnis abgeleitet werden. Trumps wirtschaftliche Bilanz war zuletzt geprägt durch die Corona-Krise, unter Biden/Harris hat ein eindrucksvoller Erholungsprozess eingesetzt. Eine Wahl der bisherigen Vizepräsidenten Harris würde für Europa im Wesentlichen die Fortsetzung der bisherigen Politik sein. Handelspolitisch sind weiterhin keine größeren Initiativen zu erwarten, aber auch keine erratischen Verschärfungen. Bidens und Harris' Politik kann als gemäßigt-protektionistisch charakterisiert werden. Die prinzipielle Unterstützung multilateraler, regelgebundener Kooperation kommt nur teilweise zum Tragen. Harris würde vermutlich auch als Präsidentin keine neuen Freihandelsabkommen anstreben. Sie würde sich in Fortsetzung der bisherigen Politik vermutlich für eine stärkere Diversifizierung der Lieferketten und eine gemeinsame Haltung des freien Westens gegenüber China einsetzen. Hier gibt es gute Ansatzpunkte für die Kooperation mit der Europäischen Union (EU). Eine zweite Amtszeit Trumps wäre hingegen von Unberechenbarkeit, Aggressivität und verstärktem Protektionismus geprägt. Sowohl die europäische Sicherheit als auch die Außenhandelsorientierung Europas stünden in diesem Fall vor großen Herausforderungen. Er würde Zölle als Druckmittel einsetzen, um kurzfristige Vorteile für die USA zu erzielen, und die multilateralen Regelsysteme und Institutionen geringschätzen oder gar verlassen. Trump hat angedroht, einen protektionistischen Schutzwall um die USA zu errichten. Auch in der Sicherheitspolitik müsste sich Europa neu aufstellen, wenn der Schutz durch die Nato geschwächt würde. Gerade für den Fall einer Wiederwahl von Donald Trump muss sich Europa vorbereiten. Dazu gehört, das klare Prioritäten gesetzt werden müssen, um zu wissen, wo Zugeständnisse gemacht werden können und wo nicht. Offene Flanken wie die berechtige Kritik an zu geringen Verteidigungsausgaben müssen zügig geschlossen werden. Zudem müssen Angebote vorbereitet und zurückgehalten werden, selbst wenn die Maßnahmen für sich allein vorteilhaft wären. Und schließlich müssen Gegenpositionen entwickelt werden, mit denen beispielsweise auf Zolldrohungen reagiert werden kann. Nur in einer klaren Positionierung können europäische Interessen bei einem Deal-Maker-Präsident Trump gewahrt werden. |
| Abstract: | A few months before the presidential election in the USA, Donald Trump has a good chance of being re-elected. On the Democratic side, the incumbent president has withdrawn his candidacy after a long period of hesitation, while Vice President Kamala Harris is highly likely to run for the Democrats. This means very different policy scenarios for economic policy and international policy issues that are particularly relevant for Europe. Conclusions about future economic policy can be drawn from the experiences of the two terms of office of Trump and Biden/Harris. While Trump focused on tax cuts and deregulation, Biden/Harris set up a broad support program with the Inflation Reduction Act. It can be assumed that both policy approaches would be continued or reintroduced in a second term of office and that Kamala Harris would continue the policies of the previous administration in principle. Although the Inflation Reduction Act would not be replaced by a new program of a similar dimension, it would not be completely abolished under either president. The investments financed by the program are also too popular among Republicans. There would be considerable differences in tax policy. Under a Democratic presidency, parts of Trump's tax cuts would not be extended, especially for the highest earners. Under Trump, the policy of tax cuts and further deregulation - also and especially with regard to climate and environmental requirements - would be continued. International commitments regarding climate targets would be as unlikely as a more ambitious domestic climate policy. On the contrary, he has announced the expansion of fossil fuels with the aim of supplying energy as cheaply as possible. Looking at the economic development of the respective terms of office, no clear result can be derived. Trump's economic record was most recently characterized by the coronavirus crisis, while an impressive recovery process has begun under Biden/Harris. For Europe, an election of the current Vice President Harris would essentially be a continuation of previous policies. No major trade policy initiatives are to be expected, but no erratic tightening either. Biden's and Harris' policies can be characterized as moderately protectionist. Their principled support for multilateral, rules-based cooperation is only partially effective. Harris would probably not seek any new free trade agreements as president either. She would probably continue her current policy of advocating greater diversification of supply chains and a common stance of the free West towards China. There are good starting points for cooperation with the European Union (EU) here. A second Trump term, on the other hand, would be characterized by unpredictability, aggressiveness and increased protectionism. Both European security and Europe's foreign trade orientation would face major challenges in this case. He would use tariffs as a means of exerting pressure in order to achieve short-term advantages for the USA and would disregard or even abandon multilateral regulatory systems and institutions. Trump has threatened to erect a protectionist wall around the USA. Europe would also have to reposition itself in terms of security policy if the protection provided by NATO were to be weakened. Europe must prepare itself, especially in the event of Donald Trump's re-election. This includes setting clear priorities in order to know where concessions can and cannot be made. Open flanks such as the justified criticism of insufficient defense spending must be closed quickly. In addition, offers must be prepared and withheld, even if the measures would be advantageous on their own. And finally, counter-positions must be developed to respond to customs threats, for example. European interests can only be safeguarded with a deal-maker President Trump by taking a clear position. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union, Welthandel, Weltwirtschaft |
| JEL: | E6 F13 D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:300684 |
| By: | Agnes Norris Keiller |
| Abstract: | In 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union and growth in UK manufacturing investment ground to a halt. This paper uses administrative trade data to investigate the causal relationship between these events. We exploit firm-level customs data from 2005 on-wards to quantify firms' exposure to EU and non-EU trade in inputs and outputs. Focusing on investment as a forward-looking, dynamic outcome (since the UK did not leave the EU until 2021), we relate firms' investment to their pre-referendum EU exposure. This analysis shows firms' exposure to EU trade had a negative impact on investments post-referendum, especially in 2021. Estimated impacts are stronger for import exposure than for export exposure and there is some evidence of depressed investment from exposure to non-EU imports, likely due to the large depreciation in sterling that followed the vote. Had the UK voted to remain in the EU, these estimates imply manufacturing investment would have been over 7% higher, about £2.4 billion annually between 2016 and 2021. Data Disclaimer: this work was produced using statistical data from the UK Office for National Statistics ("ONS"). The use of ONS data does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to its interpretation or analysis. Analysis using ONS research datasets may not exactly reproduce ONS aggregates and was carried out in the Secure Research Service, part of the Office for National Statistics. |
| Keywords: | firm level, investment, international trade, European Union, manufacturing, Brexit |
| Date: | 2024–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2025 |
| By: | Gabriel Montes-Rojas; Zacharias Psaradakis; Martín Sola |
| Abstract: | We consider models for conditional quantiles in which parameters are subject to discrete changes governed by an exogenous, unobservable Markov chain. We argue that all quantiles of the conditional distribution of the response variable should share the Markov regimes. This gives an unambiguous classification of regimes and allows the capture of quantile-specific characteristics conditionally on the hidden regimes. The potential of our approach is illustrated using a quantile autoregression for U.S. inflation. |
| Keywords: | Markov Switching; Quantile Regressions. |
| JEL: | C32 C52 C58 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpecon:2024_05 |
| By: | Giancarlo Ianulardo (University of Exeter Business School - University of Exeter); Aldo Stella (UNIPG - Università degli Studi di Perugia = University of Perugia) |
| Abstract: | In an article entitled "Agency, functionalism and all that. A Sraffian view", published in the Journal of Philosophical Economics, Professor Cesaratto (2024) has proposed a functionalist methodology to study the relation between agency and structure. In doing so, he made some criticisms of an article of ours that had previously appeared in the same journal in issue XV, entitled "Towards a unity of sense: a critical analysis of the concept of relation in methodological individualism and holism in economics" (Ianulardo and Stella, 2022). We take Cesaratto's critique as an invitation to a dialogue on the methodology of the social sciences, and we would like to clarify some aspects in response to his critique. In essence, we clarify that our article consisted of two parts, which we can call pars destruens and pars construens, respectively. In the first, we show that while the determinate identity of the individual postulated by methodological individualism cannot stand without reference to difference, the relational methodology postulated by methodological holism requires its terms (i.e. individuals) to stand as a relation. In the second part, we make it clear that the sense of unity to which we have referred is not represented by an actual community, but by the drive towards unity that is common to all individuals when they intend to form a social entity (group, class, nation, party, institution etc.). Every unification makes it possible to shed new light on the moments that led to it. In this sense, we have spoken of a teleological perspective, since the end point allows us to re-signify the intermediate moments that led to it. |
| Keywords: | Methodological individualism methodological holism teleology relation unity, Methodological individualism, methodological holism, teleology, relation, unity |
| Date: | 2024–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04528106 |
| By: | Raphael Porcherot (IDHES - Institutions et Dynamiques Historiques de l'Économie et de la Société - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENS Paris Saclay - Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Sebastian Valdecantos (AAU - Aalborg University [Denmark]); Ricardo Orzi (Universidad Nacional de Luján [Buenos Aires]); Federico Camargo |
| Abstract: | Social currencies can make a valuable contribution to sustainability as they strengthen solidarity markets, a specific exchange practice that enhances the resilience of their surrounding environmental, social and human systems. Until now, the need to secure trust in a currency has been a major challenge for social currency initiatives not backed by the State. The emergence of Blockchain, which offers security, transparency and auditability to currencies and transactions it supports, seemingly circumvents this issue. This raises the question that this paper seeks to address: is Blockchain a game-changer for bottom-up solidarity economy initiatives? The methodological approach draws on a multidimensional conceptualization of trust that recognizes three components: ethical, hierarchical and methodical trust. It uses Moneda PAR, an Argentinian Blockchain-based social currency, as a case study and draws on use data, participant surveys and direct observation by the authors as action researchers to explore social currency and solidarity economy development in relation to currency performance on each dimension of trust. Findings from the case show that despite strengthening hierarchical and methodical trust, Blockchain needs to be articulated with additional market-building strategies to be a true game-changer in the development of social currency systems. |
| Keywords: | special-purpose money, social currencies, Blockchain, sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04599645 |
| By: | Charles Yuji Horioka (Center for Computational Social Science and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Asian Growth Research Institute, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, and National Bureau of Economic Research, JAPAN); Luigi Ventura (Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza, University of Rome, ITALY) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the saving motives of European households using micro-data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS), which is conducted by the European Central Bank. We find that the rank ordering of saving motives differs greatly depending on what criterion is used to rank them. For example, we find that the precautionary motive is the most important saving motive of European households when the proportion of households saving for each motive is used as the criterion to rank them but that the retirement motive is the most important saving motive of European households if the quantitative importance of each motive is taken into account. Moreover, the generosity of social safety nets seems to affect the importance of each saving motive, with saving for the retirement motive being less important in countries with generous public pension benefits and saving for the precautionary motive being less important in countries with generous health systems. These findings suggest that the retirement motive and the precautionary motive are the dominant motives for saving in Europe partly because social safety nets are not fully adequate. Our finding that saving motives that are consistent with the selfish life-cycle model as well as saving motives that are consistent with the altruism model are important in Europe implies that the two models coexist in Europe, as is the case in other parts of the world. However, our finding that the retirement motive, which is the saving motive that most exemplifies the selfish life-cycle model, is of dominant importance in Europe strongly suggests that this model is far more applicable in Europe than is the altruism model. Moreover, our finding that the intergenerational transfers motive, which is the saving motive that most exemplifies the altruism model, accounts for only about one-quarter of total household wealth in Europe provides further corroboration for this finding. |
| Keywords: | Altruism model; Bequests; European Central Bank; Household Finance and Consumption Survey; Households; Household saving; Household wealth; Inheritances; Inter vivos transfers; Intergenerational transfers; Precautionary saving; Retirement; Saving; Saving motives; Selfish life-cycle model; Wealth; Wealth-to-income ratio |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D15 D64 E21 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2024-26 |
| By: | Naughton, Barry; Xiao, Siwen; Xu, Yaosheng |
| Abstract: | China’s industrial policy does not fit well into traditional concepts of industrial policy, and even clear definitions of China’s industrial policy are rare. Everybody seems to agree that China has an aggressive industrial policy, but there is surprisingly little discussion about what that industrial policy is. To some extent, this is because China’s industrial and technology policies have been in a constant state of flux since the mid-2000s. In this short piece, we situate Chinese industrial policy and then argue that most of the process of restless change can be incorporated into a trajectory of two dimensions: first, the build out of a policy/planning mechanism; and second a shift in the ultimate objective of technology and industry polices from economics to security. We argue that these two simple features are robust enough to bear the weight of most characteristics of Chinese industrial policy. We then discuss the most recent phase of China’s industrial policy, characterized by a focus on security and new implementing instruments such as the “new-style national team” and the strengthening of the “national strategic science and technology force” (NSS&TF). These are clearly the culmination of the trends described earlier. Since there is still much we do not know about these very recent innovations, longer-run trends are invaluable in suggesting a hypothetical framework for current institutions. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, industrial policy, China, science, technology, and innovation, national security |
| Date: | 2023–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt28f568zv |
| By: | Naughton, Barry; Cheung, Tai Ming; Xiao, Siwen; Xu, Yaosheng; Yang, Yujing |
| Abstract: | China continues to dramatically increase the priority it gives to science and technology (S&T). This paper reviews China’s reorganization of its S&T system, which is part of a broader Party and government restructuring plan. The most important elements of the bureaucratic reform were the establishment of a Central Science and Technology Commission (CSTC) and the reorganization of the existing Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST). These reorganizations have been carefully thought out and in gestation for the past several years. If the subordination of research and innovation to immediate policy goals is taken as a given, most of the reorganization measures are reasonable attempts to moderate the costs that would be expected with a campaign-style approach to S&T. At the same time, the measures are no panacea. Bureaucratic conflicts will persist, though shifted to different arenas, and the biggest challenges will persist: the subordination of research to security imperatives; divorce from international collaborative research; and narrower use of market incentives will all be very costly to China’s science efforts and aspirations. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, industrial policy, China, science, technology, and innovation, national security |
| Date: | 2023–08–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt8503h22s |
| By: | Endtricht, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | Kollektive Identitäten sind ein zentraler Bestandteil des menschlichen Zusammenlebens. Sie basieren auf gemeinsamen Werten, Traditionen, Normen und Erfahrungen von Gruppen, die sowohl die individuelle Selbstwahrnehmung als auch zwischenmenschliche Beziehungen prägen. Im Kontext der Globalisierung ist darüber hinaus die Multidimensionalität kollektiver Identitäten entscheidend für das Verständnis sozialer Einstellungen. Menschen werden mit vielfältigen Gruppen konfrontiert und können sich mit diesen identifizieren oder sie ablehnen. Jedoch beziehen nur wenige empirische Studien das gesamte Spektrum kollektiver Identitäten in ihre Untersuchungen ein. In der vorliegenden Arbeit soll daher ein Ansatz vorgestellt werden, der die Vielfalt sozialer Gruppen berücksichtigt. Anhand von Daten einer repräsentativen Bevölkerungsumfrage aus dem Jahr 2022 (N = 4.319 Erwachsene ab 18 Jahren in Deutschland) werden zehn Dimensionen der kollektiven Identität (Ethnie/Nationalität, Hautfarbe, Sprache, Geschlecht, Religion, Politik, Lebensregion, deutsche Kultur, europäische Kultur, Weltbürgertum) gemeinsam betrachtet. Es wird zunächst ein Modell aufgestellt, das die Identitäten anhand etablierter Werteforschung in einen normativen Wertebereich einordnet. Anhand latenter Klassenanalysen werden sodann vier unterschiedliche Identitätsmuster identifiziert und auf Basis ihrer Inhalte und Sozialstruktur interpretiert. Die Ergebnisse werden darauf aufbauend für drei gesellschaftliche Teilgruppen - Personen mit und ohne Migrationshintergrund sowie Personen mit muslimischer religiöser Zugehörigkeit - durchgeführt und die Ergebnisse verglichen. Die Untersuchung zielt darauf ab, ein tieferes Verständnis der Multidimensionalität kollektiver Identitäten und ihrer Auswirkungen auf gesellschaftliche Dynamiken zu fördern, indem sie die Wertestruktur von Identitätsmustern mit den Einstellungen von Individuen verknüpft. Die Anwendbarkeit und das empirische sowie analytische Potenzial kollektiver Identitätsmuster für die Einstellungs- und Werteforschung werden diskutiert. |
| Keywords: | Kollektive Identität, Werte, Latente Klassenanalysen, Gruppenbeziehungen, Social Identity Theory, quantitative Einstellungsforschung |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:300654 |
| By: | Toyin B, Ajibade |
| Abstract: | We developed “KasuwaGo” mobile app to remove barriers to market participation in West Africa agri-food value chains. Women's adoption and usage of the app remains low in Nigeria. To deepen usage, we introduced a youth-led market-based agent structure to provide ICT support services in transaction creation and trade facilitation for eighty women managed in eight groups in key markets. About 72.5% of the group members gave no consideration to gender in their choice of agent, as they were more concerned with agent's availability and accessibility. Female-managed groups consummated 18% more transactions than male-managed groups (p<0.05) indicating some level of same-gender affinity on engagements beyond transaction initiation. Although potential trade location counts for group members was higher by 6±1 over a 4-week cycle compared to non-group members, the interaction response time to potential trade partners was lower for non-group members app users who were smart phone owners (p<0.05). We found no significant difference in distance of markets participated in by group and non-group members who were “KasuwaGo” app-users on own-smart-phones. Averagely, women traders were willing-to-pay additional NGN110.13 as monthly subscription for app usage. Our findings suggest that providing marketing ICT support is beneficial to mainstreaming women into priority nodes on food value chains. |
| Keywords: | Marketing |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344400 |
| By: | Loewe, Markus; El-Haddad, Amirah; Zintl, Tina |
| Abstract: | The international development debate is increasingly referring to the notion of the "social contract" - often, however, without a clear definition of the term and its implications. We therefore make a suggestion for measuring at least some elements of social contracts in order to make it easier to compare them across time and space. We build on a concept developed earlier, according to which social contracts are the "entirety of explicit or implicit agreements between all relevant societal groups and the sovereign (i.e. the government or any other actor in power), defining their rights and obligations towards each other" (Loewe, Zintl, & Houdret, 2021, p. 3). Specifically, we develop indices to capture the three "Ps" that governments can deliver to societies: protection against internal and external threats, provision of social and economic services, and allowing political participation. These indices are composed of indicators for the different aspects or dimensions of the three Ps. We use mainly input variables to gauge the willingness of governments to deliver the three Ps because outcome variables depend on too many other factors influencing the efficiency of the political process. In a second step, we calculate the values of 154 countries for all three indices around the year 2019. The results prove that the three indices are useful and valid. Their values stretch over a large range (almost from 0 to 1), but their means and medians are on similar levels, which shows that the indices are well-scaled. Also, they correlate to a high degree with each other and with other indicators such as per capita income and the Human Development Index, which proves their concurrent validity. Yet, these correlations are not perfect, which means that the three indices add information about the performance of governments in different countries. Finally, we even make a first step in identifying patterns in the results. Particularly, we find noticeable geographic clusters of social contracts with similar characteristics: For example, countries in Latin America were doing comparatively well on average in terms of political participation in 2019. Governments in sub-Saharan Africa, in turn were delivering disproportionately well on average in terms of protection and political participation if we take per capita income levels into consideration, but less so in terms of provision. And countries in the Middle East and North Africa tended to fail mainly with regard to political participation. Finally, our approach also allows for comparisons across sub-indices, that is, the different aspects of protection, provision and participation. |
| Keywords: | Social contracts, government performance, comparative politics, political participation, protection, social policies, economic policies, measurement |
| JEL: | E01 E61 F52 G31 H10 H11 H41 H50 I00 K20 P16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:300706 |
| By: | Matti Hovi (Tampere University and Finnish Center of Excellence in Tax Systems Research FIT); Sami Remes (Tampere University and Finnish Center of Excellence in Tax Systems Research FIT) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how labor market conditions at graduation affect individual’s labor market outcomes when facing employment shocks in later career, specifcally due to plant closures. We focus on university graduates and vocational school graduates as two distinct groups. Our findings reveal that the long-term earnings loss following a plant closure is 175% higher for those university graduates who entered the labor market during periods of high regional unemployment. Additionally, these unlucky university graduates are more likely to work in lower quality firms. Among vocational school graduates, we do not find a similar additional negative effect on earnings or employment quality for unlucky graduates. Instead, our results suggest higher labor market activity compared to the luckiest graduates. |
| Keywords: | Displacement, Plant closure, Business cycle, Recession, Graduation |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J65 E32 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fit:wpaper:24 |
| By: | Luna Bellani; Kattalina Berriochoa; Mark Kapteina; Guido Schwerdt |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of information on attitudes towards inheritance taxation using survey experiments fielded in Germany. We show that information about tax allowances increases demand for higher taxes and shifts public opinion from favoring abolition to supporting the tax. Effects are primarily due to a prevalent underestimation of tax allowances and the alteration of people’s expectations of being affected by such taxes. In contrast, information highlighting the increasing proportion of inherited wealth only negligibly affects policy demand. Our results suggest that pocketbook motives and misinformation may contribute to explaining the paradox of limited demand for inheritance taxation despite growing inequality concerns. |
| Keywords: | capital taxation, equality of opportunity, inheritance tax, information, randomized experiment |
| JEL: | H20 D72 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11189 |
| By: | Schneider, Silke Lena; Palm, Lennart; Partsch, Melanie Viola |
| Abstract: | In German surveys, educational attainment is measured with two questionnaire items, the first referring to the highest general school-leaving qualification, and the second referring to the highest vocational qualification or higher education degree obtained. For analysis, information from both items is usually combined into one variable. There is currently no standard way for doing so, hindering comparisons across studies and the aggregation of research data across data sources. This paper presents the results of a large-scale validation of several candidates for a German standard education variable. The candidates are based on the official International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) and the academic CASMIN education coding scheme originating in comparative social stratification research, which are both commonly used in Germany even in non-comparative research. The validation uses ALLBUS 2018 data and a data-driven selection of 157 linear validation (dependent) variables. Candidate standard education variables that retain a higher relative explanatory power across validation variables than the most detailed education variable in linear multiple regression models are regarded as more valid than candidates showing larger losses of explanatory power. Results clearly point to the superiority of CASMIN compared to ISCED when predicting a wide range of outcomes. Only for a few dependent variables, ISCED performs better, and only if it is measured in a more detailed fashion than the official way by accounting for specificities of the German educational system. Most survey data sets, however, only offer a derived ISCED variable reflecting main levels. The commonly used aggregation into three broad education levels loses, on average, half the explanatory power of the detailed benchmark, irrespective of whether it is derived from ISCED or CASMIN. Thus, studies controlling for education with just three categories may risk non-measured education effects to bias effects of other variables in the model. |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wf6pd |
| By: | Bergvall, Sanna (University of Gothenburg); Rodríguez-Planas, Núria (Queens College, CUNY) |
| Abstract: | Most empirical studies indicate that becoming a mother is an augmenting factor for the perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV). Using rich population-wide hospital records data from Sweden, we conduct a stacked DiD analysis comparing the paths of women two years before and after the birth of their first child with same-age women who are several quarters older when giving birth to their first child and find that, in contrast to the consensus view, violence sharply decreases with pregnancy and motherhood. This decline has both a short-term and longer-term component, with the temporary decline in IPV covering most of the pregnancy until the child is 6 months old, mimicking a temporary decrease in hospital visits for alcohol abuse by the children's fathers. The more persistent decline is driven by women who leave the relationship after the birth of the child. Our evidence is not supportive of alternative mechanisms including suspicious hospitalizations, an overall reduction in hospital visits or selection in seeking medical care, mothers' added value as the main nurturer, or mothers' drop in relative earnings within the household. Our findings suggest the need to push for public health awareness campaigns underscoring the risk of victimization associated with substance abuse and to also provide women with more support to identify and leave a violent relationship. |
| Keywords: | motherhood, stacked difference-in-differences model, event study, individual fixed effects, administrative longitudinal records data, population-wide estimates |
| JEL: | J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17129 |
| By: | Wenbo Yan; Ying Tan |
| Abstract: | Recently, the incorporation of both temporal features and the correlation across time series has become an effective approach in time series prediction. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) demonstrate good performance on many Temporal-correlation Forecasting Problem. However, when applied to tasks lacking periodicity, such as stock data prediction, the effectiveness and robustness of STGNNs are found to be unsatisfactory. And STGNNs are limited by memory savings so that cannot handle problems with a large number of nodes. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called the Temporal-Correlation Graph Pre-trained Network (TCGPN) to address these limitations. TCGPN utilize Temporal-correlation fusion encoder to get a mixed representation and pre-training method with carefully designed temporal and correlation pre-training tasks. Entire structure is independent of the number and order of nodes, so better results can be obtained through various data enhancements. And memory consumption during training can be significantly reduced through multiple sampling. Experiments are conducted on real stock market data sets CSI300 and CSI500 that exhibit minimal periodicity. We fine-tune a simple MLP in downstream tasks and achieve state-of-the-art results, validating the capability to capture more robust temporal correlation patterns. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.18519 |
| By: | Philipp Ager (University of Mannheim, CEPR); Viktor Malein (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The paper evaluates the long-run impact of charity nurseries for disadvantaged children in early 20th-century New York. Access to charity nurseries with kindergarten instruction raised children’s years of education and reduced their likelihood of working in low-skilled jobs later in life. Instead, exposed children were more likely to work in jobs requiring higher cognitive and language skills. The effects were strongest for children from the most disadvantaged immigrant groups at that time. Our findings suggest that kindergarten instruction in charity nurseries helped immigrant children better understand teachers’ instructions and learning materials which improved their economic outcomes in adulthood. |
| Keywords: | Age of Mass Migration, Charity Nurseries, Child Care, Disadvantaged Children, Kindergarten Instruction, New York City |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J13 J15 N31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0263 |
| By: | Taha Barwahwala; Aprajit Mahajan; Shekhar Mittal; Ofir Reich |
| Abstract: | We investigate the use of a machine learning (ML) algorithm to identify fraudulent non-existent firms. Using a rich dataset of tax returns over several years in an Indian state, we train an ML-based model to predict fraudulent firms. We then use the model predictions to carry out field inspections of firms identified as suspicious by the ML tool. We find that the ML model is accurate in both simulated and field settings in identifying non-existent firms. Withholding a randomly selected group of firms from inspection, we estimate the causal impact of ML driven inspections. Despite its strong predictive and field performance, the model driven inspections do not yield a significant increase in enforcement as measured by the cancellation of fraudulent firm registrations and tax recovery. We provide two rationales for this discrepancy based on a close analysis of the tax department’s operating protocols: selection bias, and institutional friction in integrating the model into existing administrative systems. Our study serves as a cautionary tale for the application of machine learning in public policy contexts and of relying solely on test set performance as an effectiveness indicator. Field evaluations are critical in assessing the real-world impact of predictive models. |
| JEL: | H0 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32705 |
| By: | Gendron, Yves (Université Laval); Paugam, Luc (HEC Paris); Stolowy, Hervé (HEC Paris) |
| Abstract: | "Purpose: This essay takes issue with the incommensurability thesis, which assumes that meaningful research work across different paradigms cannot occur. Could it be that the thesis understates the case for meaningful relationships to develop across paradigms? Is it possible that researchers can authentically and rewardingly collaborate across paradigms and create joint studies published in established journals? <p> Approach: Based on the observation that inter-paradigmatic research exists, we investigate two questions. How is inter-paradigmatic research expressed in the accounting research literature? How can we comprehend the process that underlies the development and publication of inter-paradigmatic research, focusing on cohabitation involving the positivist and interpretive paradigms of research? <p> Findings: To deal with our first question, we focus on two inter-paradigmatic articles: Greenwood et al. (2002) and Paugam et al. (2021). We find each article showcases a dominant paradigm – whereas the role of the other paradigm is represented as secondary; that is, complementing and enriching the dominant paradigm. To address our second question, we rely especially on our involvement as coauthors of three inter-paradigmatic studies, published between 2019 and 2022 in FT50 journals. Our analysis brings to the fore a range of facilitators that fit our experiences, such as the development of cross-paradigmatic agreement within the authorship to cope with the complexity surrounding the object of study, the crafting of methodological compromises (e.g., regarding the number of documents to analyze), and the strategizing we enacted in dealing with journal gatekeepers. <p> Originality: From our experiences, we develop a model, which provides a tentative template to make sense of the process by which inter-paradigmatic research takes place. The model highlights the role of what we call “epistemic mediation” in producing inter-paradigmatic studies. " |
| Keywords: | epistemic mediation; incommensurability thesis; inter-paradigmatic research; mediation strategies; paradigms |
| JEL: | M41 |
| Date: | 2023–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1474 |
| By: | Gaffney, Edward (Central Bank of Ireland); McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | A diverse set of entity types operate in the Irish mortgage market. We explore the role of these various bank and non-bank entities in mortgage refinancing patterns from 2017, looking at both from whom mortgage borrowers switch, and to whom they switch, using rich credit registry data. Looking at where borrowers switch to, we show that non-bank lenders are a particularly cyclical, interest-rate-sensitive source of financing, consistently increasing their share of mortgage switchers from 2019 to the turning point of the interest rate cycle in mid-2022, followed by a collapse in switching market share in late 2022 and 2023. On the question of from whom mortgage switchers originate, we highlight that mortgage customers at non-lending non-bank firms had a structurally lower propensity to switch than customers of banks over the period 2017 to 2023. However, higher-credit quality portfolios at these servicers have had similar rates of switching to those at retail banks, while those with higher credit risk are the groups that have had lowest propensity to switch. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:5/fs/24 |
| By: | Shi, Chengchun; Zhou, Yunzhe; Li, Lexin |
| Abstract: | In this article, we propose a new hypothesis testing method for directed acyclic graph (DAG). While there is a rich class of DAG estimation methods, there is a relative paucity of DAG inference solutions. Moreover, the existing methods often impose some specific model structures such as linear models or additive models, and assume independent data observations. Our proposed test instead allows the associations among the random variables to be nonlinear and the data to be time-dependent. We build the test based on some highly flexible neural networks learners. We establish the asymptotic guarantees of the test, while allowing either the number of subjects or the number of time points for each subject to diverge to infinity. We demonstrate the efficacy of the test through simulations and a brain connectivity network analysis. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. |
| Keywords: | brain connectivity networks; directed acrylic graph; hypothesis testing; generative adversarial networks; multilayer perceptron neural networks; Hypothesis testing; CIF-2102227; R01AG061303; R01AG062542; EP/W014971/1 |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2023–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119446 |
| By: | Mantey, Vida; Bosch, Christine; Missiame, Arnold; Birner, Regina; Birkenberg, Athena; Yameogo, Viviane Guesbeogo; Mburu, John |
| Abstract: | Dairy production is an important contributor to food security and poverty reduction, but it is also a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The development of smallholder agricultural carbon projects, such as the Mt. Elgon project, provides an opportunity for farmers to receive benefits for adopting sustainable practices that not only potentially increase farm productivity but also reduce GHG emissions. While there is growing evidence that agricultural cooperatives in conventional development projects improve the adoption of agricultural technologies and the economic performance of smallholder farms, there is a research gap on the role that dairy cooperatives can play in smallholder agricultural carbon projects. This study examines the role of dairy cooperatives in smallholder agricultural carbon projects and assesses the impact of cooperative membership on the technical efficiency of smallholder dairy carbon farmers in Western Kenya. The study used a mixed methods approach. A participatory and visual mapping tool, Net-Map, was used to identify key actors and their linkages. Stochastic frontier and endogenous switching regression models were used to estimate technical efficiency and assess the impact of cooperative membership on the technical efficiency of smallholder dairy carbon farmers, respectively. The results show that dairy cooperatives in carbon projects play an important role in project design and implementation, as well as in carbon monitoring and reporting. On average, smallholder farmers are 35.3 percent technically efficient, and cooperative members have lower technical efficiency than non-members. This finding can be attributed to the way these dairy cooperatives were set up and the fact that some farmers joined the cooperatives to participate in the project. Furthermore, an average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and an average treatment effect on the untreated (ATU) of 0.311 and 0.251 respectively was observed. In general, the study concludes that without critical sources of heterogeneity, dairy cooperatives can support smallholder carbon farmers not only to improve their efficiency but also to promote sustainable dairy farming. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344343 |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum P.; Ancheta, Jenica A. |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates housing affordability using other methods beyond the standard 30 percent income benchmark. By employing the Housing Affordability Index, which considers median family income and average housing prices, the authors find that most Filipino households are income-constrained in purchasing homes. Using the residual income method alongside the 30 percent income standard reveals that the latter overestimates affordability for poorer households, with housing stress particularly evident among low-income groups. The study highlights that socialized and economic housing projects are increasingly situated on the urban fringes, limiting housing options for low- and middle-income households in cities. With residential prices outpacing income growth, the government faces two key objectives: improving housing conditions for poor and vulnerable households and curbing speculative increases in property prices. Proposed solutions include innovative housing interventions and regulatory measures to control property market speculation and ensure affordability. |
| Keywords: | Housing;housing affordability |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2024_vol__48_no__1b |
| By: | Fernández, Francisco J.; Vásquez-Lavín, Felipe; Rivera, Diego; Hernández, Francisco; Bopp, Carlos; Campos-Requena, Nélyda; Ponce, Roberto D. |
| Abstract: | A tariff is a crucial tool for managing rural water supply services. It helps cover the costs of operation, maintenance, and repair, ensuring the sustainability of these services. Unfortunately, due to suboptimal tariff structures, rural water systems lack the financial liquidity to handle unforeseen events. This puts them in a difficult position, especially with the increasing water demand and resource scarcity driven by climate change. Therefore, adjusting the current tariff settings is necessary to achieve financial and operational sustainability, balancing cost recovery with other social, economic, and environmental objectives. This study aims to determine how pricing components, such as fixed charges and variable costs, influence consumer acceptability of different tariff systems. Using a choice experiment, we evaluated Chilean rural water consumers' preferences for different tariff schemes. The results show that individuals are highly conservative regarding the price structure. Participants preferred maintaining existing tariffs, consistently favoring the status quo over alternative tariff structures. Significantly, the likelihood of selecting a new tariff structure is influenced more by alterations in the variable component than by changes in the fixed price of water. These findings provide valuable insights for achieving a balanced and sustainable approach to rural water management and help policy designs. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344377 |