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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2024‒07‒08
35 papers chosen by |
| By: | António Afonso; José Carlos Coelho |
| Abstract: | We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in 20 OECD economies between 1950 and 2019. We find stable long-term relationships between government revenues and expenditures as well as between the primary budget balance and past public debt ratio for the full panel. Performing an expanding window analysis, we conclude that the differential between the long-term real interest rate and the real GDP growth rate (r-g) plays a crucial role in fiscal sustainability, as well as the existence of fiscal rules in terms of the budget balance, and also the output gap. The effects of inflation, external accounts balance and fiscal rules on sustainability coefficients à la Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Bohn (1998) are heterogenous. Furthermore, before the global financial crisis of 2008, the effects of the (r-g) differential were particularly strong, and depended on its sign as well as on past debt-to-GDP ratios. |
| Keywords: | fiscal sustainability, primary budget balance, public debt, panel data, expanding window, fiscal rules |
| JEL: | C23 H61 H63 E62 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11137&r= |
| By: | BOUAKEZ, Hafedh; KANO, Takashi |
| Abstract: | The neo-Fisherian effect typically refers to the short-run increase in inflation associated with a permanent increase in the nominal interest rate. This positive comovement between the two variables is commonly viewed — and empirically identified — as being conditional on permanent monetary shocks, which are often interpreted as permanent shifts in the inflation target. Such a view, however, implies that inflation and the nominal interest rate share a common stochastic trend, a property that is hardly supported by the data, especially during episodes of stable inflation. Moreover, in countries that have adopted formal inflation targeting, changes in the inflation target occur very infrequently, if at all, calling into question the interpretation of inflation target shocks identified within standard time-series models based on quarterly data. In this paper, we propose a novel empirical strategy to detect the neo-Fisherian effect, which we apply to U.S. data. Our procedure relaxes the commonly used identifying restriction that inflation and the nominal interest rate are cointegrated, and, more importantly, is agnostic about the nature of the shock that gives rise to a neo-Fisherian effect. We find that the identified shock has no permanent effect on the nominal interest rate or inflation, but moves them in the same direction for a number of quarters. It also accounts for the bulk of their variability at any given forecasting horizon, while explaining a non-negligible fraction of output fluctuations at businesscycle frequencies. Using Bayesian techniques, we show that the data favors the interpretation of the identified shock as a liquidity preference shock rather than an inflation target shock. |
| Keywords: | Identification, Inflation, Liquidity preference, neo-Fisherian effect |
| JEL: | E12 E23 E31 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-140&r= |
| By: | Paul Beaudry; Paolo Cavallino; Tim Willems |
| Abstract: | This paper adds life-cycle features to a New Keynesian model and shows how this places financial wealth at the center of consumption/saving decisions, thereby enriching the determinants of aggregate demand and affecting the transmission of monetary policy. As retirement preoccupations strengthen, the potency of conventional monetary policy declines and depends more on the response of asset prices (supporting central banks closely monitoring the impact of monetary policy on asset prices). Especially “low/high for long” policies are shown to often have only muted effects on economic activity due to offsetting income and substitution effects of interest rates, in a way that can be compounded by Quantitative Easing. We also show why the presence of life-cycle forces can favor a monetary policy strategy which stabilizes asset prices in response to financial shocks. Being explicit about the role of retirement savings in aggregate demand therefore offers new perspectives on several aspects of monetary interventions. |
| JEL: | E21 E43 E52 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32511&r= |
| By: | Christian Bittner; Alexander Rodnyansky; Farzad Saidi; Yannick Timmer |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction of expansionary rate-based monetary policy and quantitative easing, despite their concurrent implementation, by exploiting heterogeneous banks and the introduction of negative monetary-policy rates in a fragmented euro area. Quantitative easing increases credit supply less, translating into weaker employment growth, when banks’ funding costs do not decrease. Using administrative data from Germany, we uncover that among banks selling their securities, central-bank reserves remain disproportionately with high-deposit banks that are constrained due to sticky customer deposits at the zero lower bound. Affected German banks lend relatively less to firms while increasing their interbank exposure in the euro area. |
| Keywords: | Negative Interest Rates, Quantitative Easing, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bank Lending Channel |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 E63 F45 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_552&r= |
| By: | Egemen Eren; Timothy Jackson; Giovanni Lombardo |
| Abstract: | Is there a role for central bank balance sheet policies away from the effective lower bound on interest rates? We extend the canonical DSGE model with financial frictions to include a fully specified central bank balance sheet. We find that the balance sheet size and composition can play a macroprudential role in improving the efficacy of monetary policy. The optimal balance-sheet policy aims at affecting duration risk held by banks in order to increase their resilience to shocks. Optimal short-run balance sheet policies bring no additional advantage to using the policy rate alone provided the optimal long-run balance sheet is already in place. Our results also highlight a key role for government debt maturity and bank regulation in determining optimal central bank balance sheets. |
| Keywords: | optimal monetary policy, central bank balance sheet, government debt, reserves, financial frictions, macroprudential. |
| JEL: | E42 E44 E51 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202408&r= |
| By: | Hans Gersbach; Jean-Charles Rochet; Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes optimal fiscal policy in a growth model with incomplete markets, heterogeneous agents (households and entrepreneurs), and idiosyncratic productivity risk. Entrepreneurs run risky production, which they cannot finance optimally because of an agency problem. In the second-best optimum, they issue continuously traded bonds. Households invest in private and public debt. The government has to finance an exogenous expenditure flow and maximizes a weighted sum of the welfare of entrepreneurs and households. We show that any constrained Pareto optimal allocation can be decentralized as a competitive equilibrium by issuing an appropriate amount of public debt, combined with suitable wealth taxation. Positive public expenditure shocks leave the optimal debt-to-GDP ratio unaffected and increase tax rates. Such shocks also determine whether r g in equilibrium, with different dynamics and fiscal sustainability in the two regimes. |
| Keywords: | Incomplete Financial Markets, Heterogeneous Agents, Debt, Taxes, Interest, Growth, Ponzi Games |
| JEL: | D31 D43 D52 D63 E21 E44 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_544&r= |
| By: | Oliver Holtemöller; Alexander Kriwoluzky; Boreum Kwak |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the heteroscedasticity of the changes in short-term and long-term interest rates and exchange rates around the FOMC announcement, we identify three structural monetary policy shocks. We eliminate the predictable part of the shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary policy shock, and the second resembles an unconventional monetary shock. The third shock leads to an increase in interest rates, stock prices, industrial production, consumer prices, and commodity prices. At the same time, the excess bond premium and uncertainty decrease, and the U.S. dollar depreciates. Therefore, this third shock combines all the characteristics of a central bank information shock. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, central bank information shock, identification through heteroskedasticity, high-frequency identification, proxy SVAR |
| JEL: | C36 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2084&r= |
| By: | James Graham; Avish Sharma |
| Abstract: | How does monetary policy affect the homeownership rate? A monetary contraction may have contrasting effects on ownership due to rising interest rates, falling incomes, and lower house prices. To investigate, we build a heterogeneous household life-cycle model with housing tenure decisions, mortgage finance, and an exogenous stochastic process to capture the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy. Following a contractionary shock, homeownership initially falls due to rising mortgage rates, but rises over the medium term given falling house prices. We also show that differences in mortgage credit conditions, mortgage flexibility, and household expectations formation can amplify homeownership dynamics following a shock. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership; monetary policy; interest rates; house prices; heterogeneous households |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2024-11&r= |
| By: | Changhyun Lee (Department of Economics, University of California Davis) |
| Abstract: | I suggest a new channel through which central bank asset purchase programs could have effects on asset prices: The outside option channel. After the global financial crisis, central banks have widened the variety of assets they can purchase. Secondary markets for the majority of the newly targeted assets are characterized by the OTC market structure with matching frictions and bargaining features. In bargaining, the central bank’s asset purchase announcement could affect the outside option value of the asset seller by providing one more option of selling the asset to the central bank to the seller. The effect of the outside option channel materializes even without actual purchases by the central bank since once the asset seller is matched with the buyer, she would exploit the announcement to require a higher price in the bargaining but not actually sell the asset to the central bank. I show how the outside option channel could work through a two-period model and discuss its empirical relevance by comparing two episodes of the Fed’s asset purchases during the global financial crisis and the COVID crisis. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional monetary policy, OTC markets, Asset pricing |
| JEL: | E50 E58 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cda:wpaper:363&r= |
| By: | Pablo de la Vega; Guido Zack; Jimena Calvo; Emiliano Libman |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the inflation rate and its proximate determinants in Argentina, using quarterly data over the period 2004-2022 and an error-correction vector model approach. Unlike previous literature, this paper uses a theoretical framework to motivate the inclusion of variables that are expected to contribute to explain inflation, thus reducing the risk of omitting relevant variables and formalizing key mechanisms. Inference is performed through Granger causality analysis, impulse response functions and forecast errors variance decomposition. The results suggest that an anti-inflationary plan for Argentina should take into consideration both the greater relevance of the inertial component, the exchange rate and the interest rate in the short-run dynamics of the price level, and the long-run relationship between prices, interest rate and activity level. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.20822&r= |
| By: | Grieco, Kevin |
| Abstract: | How can weak states build fiscal capacity? I argue that governments in weak states can build fiscal capacity by collaborating with non-state, traditional political institutions (TPIs). Using a mix of experimental and qualitative evidence, I show that this collaboration increases citizens’ compliance because TPIs possess legitimacy and coercive capacity. Collaborating with the local government in Kono District, Sierra Leone, I embedded an experiment in their campaign to collect property taxes. Potential taxpayers were shown awareness videos that varied in their content, particularly in terms of whether and how their local paramount chief characterised his involvement in tax collection. I find that state collaboration with TPIs increases a preregistered proxy of citizens’ compliance with a newly introduced property tax and that TPIs’ authority stems from both their legitimacy and coercive capacity. Qualitative evidence from 300 semi-structured interviews adds a richer description of legitimacy and coercive capacity in my context. I argue, based on qualitative evidence, that legitimacy and coercion are complementary mechanisms of TPIs’ authority enabling them to effectively coordinate collective action to produce local public goods in the absence of the state. |
| Keywords: | Finance, |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idq:ictduk:18360&r= |
| By: | Santiago Calvo Ramos; Joana Elisa Maldonado; Anneleen Vandeplas; Istvan Vanyolos |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a review of estimates of the prevalence of long COVID in the EU, and a tentative assessment of its economic impact, in particular on labour supply. This tentative approach yields an estimated prevalence of long COVID cases of around 1.7% of the EU population in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, resulting in a negative impact on labour supply of 0.2-0.3% in 2021 and 0.3-0.5% in 2022. In person-equivalents, this means long COVID would have reduced labour supply by 364, 000–663, 000 in 2021 and by 621, 000-1, 112, 000 in 2022, combining the effect of lower productivity, higher sick leaves, lower hours, and increased unemployment or inactivity. The lower bound of this range is close to a recent estimate put forward for the US (Abraham & Rendell, 2023). These figures imply that long COVID could have caused an output loss of 0.1–0.2% in 2021 and 0.2–0.3% in 2022. Available labour market data suggest a mixed picture when it comes to the impact of long COVID. Overall, the possible role of long COVID in the rising trend in sick leave, disability and activity-limiting health factors, warrants careful monitoring going forward, due to its potential impact on labour supply and labour productivity, and on public finances through increased social benefits, pensions, health care and long-term care expenditure. |
| Keywords: | long COVID, economic impact, labour supply, EU output loss |
| JEL: | E23 E24 I18 J01 J21 J22 O5 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:ecobri:077&r= |
| By: | Gaëlle Lebeau (MINEA - UG - Université de Guyane, UG - Université de Guyane) |
| Abstract: | In French Guiana, one person in two is currently working without being declared. And for the vast majority of these people, this is their only job. In this territory, where illegal immigrants account for some 4.4% of the population, undeclared work is almost the rule! In her doctoral thesis, begun in 2020, Gaëlle Lebeau analyses the economic and social phenomena that encourage it. |
| Abstract: | En Guyane, une personne sur deux travaille aujourd'hui sans être déclarée. Et pour l'immense majorité de ces personnes, il s'agit de leur seul emploi. Dans ce territoire, où les clandestins représentent quelque 4, 4% de la population, le travail dissimulé est presque la règle ! Dans sa thèse de doctorat, commencée en 2020, Gaëlle Lebeau analyse les phénomènes économiques et sociétaux qui le favorisent. |
| Keywords: | French guiana, Migration policies, Economic development, Informal economy, Immigrant population, Informal work, Guyane Française, travail informel, Population immigrée, économie informelle, Développement économique - Emploi, Politiques migratoires |
| Date: | 2022–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04571258&r= |
| By: | Bernhard Ganglmair; Julia Krämer; Jacopo Gambato |
| Abstract: | The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) of 2018 introduced stringent transparency rules compelling firms to disclose, in accessible language, details of their data collection, processing, and use. The specifics of the disclosure requirement are objective, and its compliance is easily verifiable; readability, however, is subjective and difficult to enforce. We use a simple inspection model to show how this asymmetric enforceability of regulatory rules and the corresponding firm compliance are linked. We then examine this link empirically using a large sample of privacy policies from German firms. We use text-as-data techniques to construct measures of disclosure and readability and show that firms increased the disclosure volume, but the readability of their privacy policies did not improve. Larger firms in concentrated industries demonstrated a stronger response in readability compliance, potentially due to heightened regulatory scrutiny. Moreover, data protection authorities with larger budgets induce better readability compliance without effects on disclosure. |
| Keywords: | data protection, disclosure, GDPR, privacy policies, readability, regulation, text-as-data, topic models |
| JEL: | C81 D23 K12 K20 L51 M15 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_547&r= |
| By: | Sebastián Katz (UBA); Eduardo Levy Yeyati (Universidad Torcuato di Tella) |
| Abstract: | Based on long series of per capita GDPs, we characterize the economic divergence of Argentina in the 20th century relative to a group of countries with comparable initial income per capita. We find the divergence to be considerably longer than usually conjectured, with two marked tranches in the first half of the century and in the post war period, the latter being associated with GDP underperformance despite the relative decline in population. We identify specific dates for the inflection points, discuss the context in each case, and propose a potential explanation of the divergence together with a description of the highly volatile plateau displayed since the 1990s. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:325&r= |
| By: | Christiane Baumeister; Florian Huber; Massimiliano Marcellino |
| Abstract: | The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the oil market by setting up a general empirical framework that allows for flexible predictive distributions of oil prices that can depart from normality. This model, based on Bayesian additive regression trees, remains agnostic on the functional form of the conditional mean relations and assumes that the shocks are driven by a stochastic volatility model. We show that our nonparametric approach improves in terms of tail forecasts upon three competing models: quantile regressions commonly used for studying tail events, the Bayesian VAR with stochastic volatility, and the simple random walk. We illustrate the practical relevance of our new approach by tracking the evolution of predictive densities during three recent economic and geopolitical crisis episodes, by developing consumer and producer distress indices that signal the build-up of upside and downside price risk, and by conducting a risk scenario analysis for 2024. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C53 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32524&r= |
| By: | David Card; Leah Clark; Ciprian Domnisoru; Lowell Taylor |
| Abstract: | A school finance equalization program established in Mississippi in 1920 failed to help many of the state's Black students – an outcome that was typical in the segregated U.S. South (Horace Mann Bond, 1934). In majority-Black school districts, local decision-makers overwhelmingly favored white schools when allotting funds from the state's preexisting per capita fund, and the resulting high expenditures on white students rendered these districts ineligible for the equalization program. Thus, while Black students residing in majority-white districts benefited from increased spending and standards for Black schools, those in majority-Black districts continued to experience extremely low – and even worsening – school funding. We model the processes that led the so-called equalization policy to create disparities in schooling resources for Black students, and estimate effects on Black children using both a neighboring-counties design and an IV strategy. We find that local educational spending had large impacts on Black enrollment rates, as reported in the 1940 census, with Black educational attainment increasing in marginal spending. Finally, we link the 1940 and 2000 censuses to show that Black children exposed to higher levels of school expenditures had significantly more completed schooling and higher income late in life. |
| JEL: | I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32496&r= |
| By: | Karol Szafranek; Michał Rubaszek |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered severe disruptions in the European energy markets and caused significant shifts in global natural gas flows. In this paper we investigate to what extent this European shock has affected the dynamics and altered the estimates of the elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. For that purpose, we use the Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework proposed by Baumeister and Hamilton (2019, BH) for the crude oil market and applied by Rubaszek, Uddin, and Szafranek (2021, RSU) to analyze the dynamics of U.S. natural gas market till year 2020. We modify the RSU model to account for natural gas trade and next derive the posterior of the model using observations till 2023. This allows us to approximate the impact of the European energy crisis on the U.S. market. Our result are twofold. First, we show that due to our modification the RSU model the estimates of the elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market change, while simply updating the same prior beliefs with most recent data impacts the posterior estimates to a very limited extent. Second, we find that even as major shock as the European energy crisis has only marginally contributed to the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market. This result confirms earlier studies, which show that the U.S. natural gas market is barely affected by shocks to the European natural gas market. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas market, structural VAR, Impulse-response function, Bayesian inference |
| JEL: | C11 C32 Q31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2024099&r= |
| By: | Luis Ángel Maza (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | Este documento examina cómo los umbrales del tamaño empresarial, que establecen requisitos en la información financiero-contable, pueden influir en las decisiones de crecimiento de las empresas en el contexto económico de España. Se han identificado posibles efectos no deseados que actúan como obstáculos para el crecimiento empresarial, especialmente en los umbrales relacionados con el número de empleados. Además, se proponen mejoras para alinear intereses y objetivos, ofreciendo alguna alternativa que contribuye a equilibrar estos aspectos y que enriquece la discusión sobre su efectividad. |
| Keywords: | Plan General de Contabilidad, información financiera, tamaño empresarial, umbrales |
| JEL: | M41 M48 L11 L25 D21 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2419&r= |
| By: | Bernadette Minton; Alvaro G. Taboada; Rohan Williamson |
| Abstract: | Our research examines the impact of dwindling community bank numbers on community investment and economic development. Initially, we confirm the vital role of community banks’ small business lending in local development. Contrary to popular belief, we find that a decrease in community banks positively affects community investment, through small business loan (SBL) originations. Key factors include the local presence of other community banks and the continuity of the consolidating bank's presence. Interestingly, the effect remains neutral in underserved or distressed counties and diminishes when a large bank acquires a community bank without maintaining a local presence. Post-consolidation, community banks emerge larger and more robust, capable of issuing larger SBLs, while larger banks and Fintech firms contribute by providing smaller SBLs. Overall, our findings reinforce the critical contribution of community banks to local development, suggesting that a reduction in their numbers leads to a stronger, more stable banking infrastructure in the small business lending landscape. |
| JEL: | G2 G20 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32521&r= |
| By: | Larbi Hasrouri (Université de Poitiers - Faculté de Sciences économiques - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers) |
| Abstract: | The paper is about formalizing contracts within universities, which at the heart of the New Public Management doctrine (Hood, 1995). A literature (Bollecker, 2013, Châtelain et al., 2013, Fabre, 2005) looked into objectives contracts as part of the management control field. We focus the study on the internalization of such contracts in terms of tool of control. The aim of this article is to characterize the internal contracts of objectives and resources (CIOMs ) implemented between university governing chancellorship and the departments and faculties as a control technology within an average university trying to exit from a critical situation. So, our problematic is to analyze to what extent such internalization of objective contracts can be a control tool from the point of view of the departments. Employing a theoretical point of view, we use Adler and Borys's (1996) grid for so-called enabling control in three possible dimensions (facilitating, enabling, guidance), Simons's (1995) conceptual framework of control (interactive versus diagnostic), and the boundary-object framework (Trompette and Winck, 2009, Zeiss and Groenewegen, 2009). Our methodology is based on a textual analysis of the nine ICORs of the studied university and its departments, in addition to interviews with three division directors. The textual analysis results show indeed a certain similarity for three departments. The textual analysis of the ICORs also show that enabling control is the dominant dimension and can be explained, according to the three interviewed faculty directors -whose results of the textual analysis show a strong similarity- by greater self-knowledge during periods of interactive control through dialogue and discussion phases with chancellorship, particularly when departments directors can choose their own indicators for the department during these phases. The facilitating aspect of enabling is mainly explained by the spread of ICOR indicators as close as possible to the teams in the departments. Last, there is a constraigning aspect (Ragaigne et al., 2014) to using ICORs, although there is no prescription for their adoption or deployment. |
| Abstract: | L'article aborde le thème de la contractualisation au sein des universités qui est bien au cœur de la doctrine en Management Public caractérisée par Hood (1995) Une certaine littérature (Bollecker, 2013, Châtelain et al., 2013, Fabre, 2005) s'est intéressée aux contrats d'objectifs dans le champ du contrôle de gestion. Nous nous focalisons sur l'impact de l'internalisation d'une telle contractualisation en termes d'outil de contrôle. Le contexte étudié est celui d'une université de taille moyenne ayant connu une situation critique et dont la gouvernance et la présidence ont mis en place des outils avec pour objectif la sortie de cette situation. Notre problématique est de voir dans quelle mesure une telle internalisation de contrats d'objectifs au sein de l'université étudiée constitue un outil de contrôle. Pour ce faire, l'article vise caractériser les contrats internes d'objectifs et de moyens (CIOM) en tant que technologie de contrôle au sein d'une université moyenne du point de vue des composantes. Sur le plan théorique nous mobilisons la grille conceptuelle de Adler et Borys (1996) sur le contrôle dit capacitant (enabling) selon trois dimensions possibles à laquelle nous ajoutons le cadre conceptuel de Simons (1995) ainsi que celui d'objet-frontière (Trompette and Winck, 2009, Zeiss and Groenewegen, 2009) pour caractériser le rôle du CIOM en termes de dialogue entre les composantes et la présidence de l'université. L'école française des outils de gestion est aussi évoquée pour analyser la philosophie gestionnaire du déploiement des CIOM. La méthodologie est basée sur une analyse textuelle des neuf CIOM entre l'université étudiée et ses composantes à l'aide d'un logiciel ad hoc permettant dans un premier temps de faire émerger des proximités issues de la grille conceptuelle mobilisée. L'étude est complétée dans un second temps par des entretiens auprès de 3 directeurs de composantes dont les résultats de l'analyse textuelle préliminaire montrent une forte proximité. Les principaux résultats de l'analyse textuelle des CIOM montrent qu'un contrôle habilitant prédomine et s'explique selon les entretiens par une meilleure connaissance de soi lors du contrôle interactif, notamment en choisissant ses propres indicateurs pour la composante. La dimension facilitante de l'enabling s'explique principalement par la diffusion des indicateurs du CIOM au plus près des équipes dans les composantes. On retrouve enfin une vertu contraignante (Ragaigne et al., 2014) du CIOM en tant qu'outil sans qu'il y ait prescription toutefois dans son adoption ou son déploiement. |
| Keywords: | Objectives contract, Control, Enabling, Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), Contrat d’objectifs, Contrôle, Analyse qualitative comparée |
| Date: | 2024–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04579798&r= |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; Pascual Restrepo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of automation in economies with labor market distortions that generate worker rents—wages above opportunity cost—in some jobs. We show that automation targets high-rent tasks, dissipating rents and amplifying wage losses from automation. It also reduces within-group wage dispersion for exposed groups. Automation-driven rent dissipation is inefficient and reduces (and could even negate) the productivity gains from automation. Using data for the US from 1980 to 2016, we find evidence of sizable rent dissipation and reduced within-group wage dispersion due to automation. Using these estimates and accounting for equilibrium effects, we estimate that automation accounts for 52% of the increase in between-group inequality in the US since 1980, with rent dissipation being responsible for a fifth of this contribution. We also estimate that inefficient rent dissipation offset 60–90% of the productivity gains from automation since 1980. |
| JEL: | J23 J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32536&r= |
| By: | Supratim Das Gupta (Amrut Mody School of Management, Ahmedabad University, Ahmedabad, India); Marco Baudino (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Saikat Sarkar (Department of Economics & Politics, Visva Bharati University, Santiniketan, India) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the growth-energy-pollution nexus of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) considering the joint contribution to CO2 emissions of the different sectors of the economy for a set of 43 emerging and developing countries. Since energy consumption and contribution to GDP growth can vary remarkably among sectors, the latter are likely to be characterized by heterogeneous responses to pollution from macroeconomic factors. We adopt an index decomposition approach disentangling the effect of energy consumption from intra-sectoral shifts in economic activities, which allows to evaluate improvements in energy efficiency across sectors. For the empirical analysis, we employ System and Difference GMM estimations using longitudinal obser- vations from 1998 to 2019. Our econometric results reveal substantial heterogeneity of responses to carbon dioxide reduction across sectors. Particularly, we validate the exis- tence of the EKC in energy-related measures for the sole manufacturing sector, and in GDP growth for the commercial and public sector. On the other hand, while emissions increase proportionately with growth in the transportation sector, energy efficiency measures seem to be ineffective in curtailing emissions in both the transportation and commercial and public sectors. Our results bear recommendations for the achievement of effective carbon neutrality policies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve, Energy Intensity Decomposition, CO2 Emissions |
| JEL: | Q01 Q53 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2024-17&r= |
| By: | Greg Stoddard; Dylan J. Fitzpatrick; Jens Ludwig |
| Abstract: | Whether police misconduct can be prevented depends partly on whether it can be predicted. We show police misconduct is partially predictable and that estimated misconduct risk is not simply an artifact of measurement error or a proxy for officer activity. We also show many officers at risk of on-duty misconduct have elevated off-duty risk too, suggesting a potential link between accountability and officer wellness. We show that targeting preventive interventions even with a simple prediction model – number of past complaints, which is not as predictive as machine learning but lower-cost to deploy – has marginal value of public funds of infinity. |
| JEL: | C0 K0 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32432&r= |
| By: | Mark Whitmeyer; Cole Williams |
| Abstract: | For three natural classes of dynamic decision problems; 1. additively separable problems, 2. discounted problems, and 3. discounted problems for a fixed discount factor; we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for one sequential experiment to dominate another in the sense that the dominant experiment is preferred to the other for any decision problem in the specified class. We use these results to study the timing of information arrival in additively separable problems. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.13709&r= |
| By: | Gustavo A. Del Angel (division of economics, cide); Lorena Pérez-Hernández (Heilbronn University) |
| Abstract: | This research explains the relevance of geopolitical factors and debt diplomacy during sovereign debt negotiations. We explain how the Mexican government reached an agreement with international creditors for the repayment of its foreign debt in 1942, after more than 25 years of unsuccessful negotiations. The agreement, that included a haircut of 90%, was the resul of a change in the geopolitical situation of Mexico, when the United States etered the Second World War and considered that country a strategic ally. The agreement, we argue, also derived from Mexico’s proactive stance in debt negotiations and bond repurchasing, in particular the effective strategy and negotiations by Eduardo Suárez, then the Mexican minister of finance. This paper studies the process of negotiations since 1922 and the conditions that allowed Mexico to reach un unusually advantageous settlement. This is a preliminary draft of a chapter to be published in the book Sovereign Debt Diplomacies (Juan Flores Zendejas and Pierre Penet, editors, Oxford University Press). |
| Keywords: | Deuda soberana, diplomacioa de la deuda, México, Eduardo Suárez. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte627&r= |
| By: | Cantoni, Davide; Heizlsperger, Louis-Jonas; Yang, David Y.; Yuchtman, Noam; Zhang, Y. Jane |
| Abstract: | Which fundamental traits are associated with individuals’ participation in antiauthoritarian protests? We conduct a series of surveys eliciting participation in Hong Kong’s antiauthoritarian movement, covering a period that included protests ranging from tens of thousands to over one million participants. For a sample of university students, we construct a comprehensive profile of fundamental economic preferences: risk and time preferences plausibly affecting an individual’s costs of protest participation; social preferences affecting the benefits. We also elicit other fundamental traits: personality, cognitive abilities, and socioeconomic background. We document several facts about protest participants: (i) fundamental economic preferences, particularly risk tolerance and pro-social preferences, are the strongest predictors of protest participation; (ii) the strongest predictors are the same for modest and massive protests, with larger effects for massive protests; (iii) participation in massive protests is not driven by marginal types, but rather by inframarginal types; (iv) both the distribution of fundamental preferences and their relationship with protest participation are very similar between university students and the broader population; and, (v) willingness to respond honestly to sensitive survey questions is high and stable over the entire sample period. Our findings suggest that economic preferences be considered alongside class background and personality as deeply determined traits driving protest participation and can inform the development of dynamic models of protest movements. |
| Keywords: | political movements; protests; preferences; European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement n. 716837). |
| JEL: | D74 D91 |
| Date: | 2022–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114905&r= |
| By: | Gulácsi, Gábor; Kerényi, Ádám |
| Abstract: | Magyarország 20 éve, 2004 óta az Európai Unió tagja. Az elmúlt húsz évben az ország gazdasági fejlettsége számottevően közeledett az EU27 átlagához, ugyanakkor az unió keleti kibővítés keretében csatlakozott országok (peer országok) többségéhez képest romlott a pozíciója, ebben a rangsorban a 3. helyről a 7. helyre esett vissza. Először a magyar gazdasági fejlődés uniós hajtóerőit, az egységes piachoz kapcsolódás és az EU-tól kapott támogatás hatásait vizsgáljuk. Ezt követően a peer országok többségéhez képesti magyar fejlettségi pozíció vesztés magyarázatát keressük. A 2010 előtti időszakban a kettős deviza adósságcsapdához vezető koalíciós kormányzást, míg a 2010 utáni időszakban a létrehozott tekintélyelvű politikai rendszer piaci versenyt elfojtó hatását azonosítottuk a pozíció vesztés fő okaiként. Statisztikai elemzést végzünk, adaptáljuk a Magyarország-Európai Unió viszonyrendszert értelmező konceptuális sémákat és értékeljük ezek alkalmazhatóságát. Végül a fejlesztési célú közpénzek magyarországi felhasználásának vizsgálatában egy újabb elemzési eszközre – egy kétdimenziós normatív keretre - is javaslatot teszünk. |
| Keywords: | Magyarország EU tagsága, felzárkózás, egységes piac, uniós támogatások, NER, dezintegráció |
| JEL: | F15 F36 O47 O52 P20 P27 |
| Date: | 2024–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121131&r= |
| By: | Borusyak, Kirill; Jaravel, Xavier |
| Abstract: | What is the nature of the distributional effects of trade? This paper demonstrates conceptually and empirically the importance of “trade-induced horizontal inequality, ” i.e. inequality that occurs among workers with the same level of earnings before the trade shock. This type of inequality does not affect the income distribution but generates winners and losers at all income levels. To quantify the horizontal inequality and changes in the income distribution induced by trade in a data-driven way, we develop a characterization of the welfare impacts, governed by simple and intuitive statistics of labor market and consumption exposure to trade. In the U.S., we find substantial heterogeneity in exposure and thus in the welfare effects of trade shocks across workers. Over 99% of the variance of welfare changes from trade shocks arises within income deciles. These findings run against a popular narrative that “trade wars are class wars.” |
| Keywords: | trade liberalization; distributional effects; inequality; EP/X016056/1; Elsevier deal |
| JEL: | F14 F16 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122606&r= |
| By: | Michela Chessa (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Benjamin Prissé (Singapore University of Technology and Design, Singapour) |
| Abstract: | Creativity is the basis of any innovation. However, there is a long and well documented academic dispute about how to best assess creativity. The Consensual Assessment Technique (CAT) is the most widely used instrument for this task. The CAT is based on a consensual definition of creativity: a product is creative to the extent that expert raters independently agree upon this judgment. It operates on the principle that no external factors should impact the assessment. In this paper, we ask whether this holds true, and we scrutinize the CAT by experimentally investigating potential discrepancies in evaluations of drawings due to three external factors: order effects, social norms, and communication. Our results confirm the robustness of the CAT in serving as a valuable method for assessing creativity at the aggregate level. However, we also identify certain weaknesses atthe individual level, particularly regarding the evaluation of drawings in first positions and when subjects are allowed to communicate. |
| Keywords: | Creativity, Innovation, Consensual Assessment Technique, Experiments |
| JEL: | C91 I25 O31 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2024-16&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2024–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/119&r= |
| By: | Mutsami, Chrispinus; Parlasca, Martin C.; Qaim, Matin |
| Abstract: | Livelihood sources in rural Africa are diverse and dynamic. Using recent primary data from four African countries — Kenya, Namibia, Tanzania, and Zambia — we consider regions with different conditions related to climate, agroecology, infrastructure, and nature conservation to analyze the role of various income sources for households and individuals. While most rural households are involved in small-scale farming, we challenge the conventional notion that own agricultural activities still constitute the main source of income. Off-farm sources account for 60% of total household income on average. The off-farm income share increases with total income, meaning that the poorest households are the ones most dependent on agriculture. These patterns are similar across all four countries. While the concrete off-farm activities differ by context, most off-farm jobs are self-employed activities in small informal businesses. More lucrative formal employment opportunities are rare and mostly pursued by individuals with post-secondary education and training. Males are more likely to be involved in wage employment than females. Furthermore, individual social networks and access to road and market infrastructure increase the likelihood of off-farm employment. These results emphasize the policy need to acknowledge the important role of rural off-farm jobs and to invest more into generating inclusive non-agricultural employment. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:343385&r= |
| By: | José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz; Juan José Ganuza; Manu García; Carlos Victoria |
| Abstract: | This article examines gender gaps in higher education in Spain from 1985 to 2023 in the context of technological advancements, particularly digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI). We identify significant disparities, with women overrepresented in health-related fields and underrepresented in STEM disciplines. This imbalance is concerning as STEM fields offer better employment prospects and higher salaries. We analyze university degrees' exposure to technological change through Routine Task Intensity (RTI) and AI exposure indices. Our findings show that women are more enrolled in degrees with high RTI, prone to automation, and less in degrees with high AI exposure, likely to benefit from technological advancements. This suggests technological change could widen existing labor market gender gaps. To address this, we recommend policies to boost female participation in STEM fields and adapt educational curricula to reduce routine tasks and enhance AI complementarities, ensuring equitable labor market outcomes amid technological change. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2024-17&r= |
| By: | Laurence Jacquet; Etienne Lehmann |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tep:teppwp:wp24-04&r= |
| By: | Manitra Rakotomena; Olivia Ricci |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tep:teppwp:wp24-03&r= |