|
on Macroeconomics |
|
Issue of 2024‒06‒10
thirty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Gilberto Tadeu Lima (University of Sao Paulo); Mark Setterfield (New School for Social Research); Jaylson Jair da Silveira (Federal University of Santa Catarina) |
| Abstract: | We explore the short-term macrodynamics of stabilization policy at the effective lower bound (ELB) of the nominal interest rate, in an environment characterized by heterogenous and endogenously time-varying private-sector output and inflation expectations driven by evolutionary dynamics. We show that at the ELB, fiscal policy conducted in accordance with a well-specified policy rule is particularly effective for purposes of macroeconomic stabilization. This is because fiscal interventions have both a direct effect on output and inflation (via aggregate demand formation) and an indirect effect on these same target variables, via the management of heterogenous and evolving expectations. As a result of the two channels through which it operates, and seemingly despite the logic of the Tinbergen (targets-instruments) principle, fiscal policy is thus revealed as a single policy instrument capable of achieving two policy goals. |
| Keywords: | Stabilization policy, effective lower bound, fiscal policy, heterogeneous inflation and output expectations, satisficing evolutionary dynamics |
| JEL: | E12 E52 E62 E63 E71 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:86-2023&r= |
| By: | Andrew Binning (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | Automatic stabilisers are fiscal policy’s first line of defence in the face of adverse economic shocks. Automatic stabilisers capture fiscal policy’s automatic countercyclical response to the state of the business cycle, and are determined by factors like the progressivity of the tax system, the size of government and the amount of benefit spending that is dependent on recipients’ economic circumstances. Built into the system, they do not require legislative action each time they are implemented, meaning they can be deployed relatively quickly. In this paper I investigate the role automatic stabilisers play in stabilising the New Zealand economy across the business cycle. I benchmark current automatic stabilisation policy against different definitions of neutral fiscal policy to determine their contribution to stabilising the economy. I find the standard deviation of GDP could be up to 29% higher in a world without automatic stabilisers. Plausible gains from strengthening automatic stabilisers from current settings are likely to be much smaller. Automatic stabilisers play a larger role when monetary policy is constrained by the lower bo |
| Keywords: | automatic fiscal stabilisers; macro-simulation; counter-factual policy simulation; |
| JEL: | H6 H30 E37 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:24/02&r= |
| By: | Andrew Binning (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | Fiscal multipliers provide a way of quantifying the GDP gain for a given (discretionary) fiscal policy intervention. I compute government consumption multipliers for New Zealand, in normal times and when monetary policy is constrained at the effective lower bound, using an estimated monetary-fiscal dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Quantifying the impact of discretionary fiscal policy is important when considering the design of fiscal support packages to offset future economic downturns. I calculate multipliers under a number of different monetary policy assumptions when imposing the lower bound on interest rates. I investigate the range of results implied by the model and the features of the policy and economic environments that lead to larger government consumption multipliers. I find that estimated government consumption multipliers are larger when interest rates are at the lower bound, but still smaller than 1, when entry and exit to the lower bound are determined by both economic conditions and the central bank’s reaction function. This implies increases in government consumption crowd out other expenditure. When the central bank can commit to holding interest rates fixed for 2 or more years, independent of economic conditions, government consumption multipliers can exceed 1. Factors that amplify demand shocks are more likely to increase multipliers, especially at the lower bound, though these features may be undesirable for macroeconomic stabilisation more generally. Larger government consumption multipliers are not an end in themselves, rather the size of the multipliers can influence the design of discretionary policy programmes. |
| Keywords: | Government consumption multipliers; monetary policy; effective lower bound; prior predictive analysis; Monte Carlo filtering |
| JEL: | C11 E52 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nztwps:24/01&r= |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | Many developing countries are facing high inflation and the central bank in these countries have adopted several solutions to tame rising inflation. Nigeria transitioned to an inflation targeting monetary policy framework in late 2023 from a monetary targeting monetary policy framework. This study identifies the important success factors for an effective inflation targeting monetary policy regime in Nigeria. The identified success factors include the size or number of economic agents monitoring the inflation target, the credibility of the central bank, the degree of central bank independence, reduction in budget deficit, limited dollarization of the Nigerian economy, effective central bank communication, avoidance of fiscal dominance, financial development, greater financial inclusion, financial stability, and insecurity caused by farmer-herder clashes and terrorism. |
| Keywords: | inflation targeting, inflation, Nigeria, monetary policy, interest rate |
| JEL: | E40 E42 E44 E47 E49 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120775&r= |
| By: | Marta Cota; Ante Sterc |
| Abstract: | Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset encompassing a rich set of mortgage details and borrowers’ characteristics, including their objective financial literacy measure. We find that households with low financial literacy are up to 4% more likely to search less and lock in at 15-20 b.p. higher rates. Upon origination, unskilled borrowers face a 35-45% higher mortgage delinquency and end up with a 30% lower likelihood of refinancing. Overall, for a $100, 000 loan, the potential losses from low financial literacy are more than $9, 329 over the mortgage duration. To understand how financial education, more accessible mortgages, or mortgage rate changes affect households with low financial literacy, we formulate and calibrate a mortgage search model with heterogeneous search frictions and endogenous financial skills. Our model estimates show that search intensity and financial skill variations contribute to 55% and 10% of mortgage rate variations, respectively. We find that i) more accessible mortgages lead to a higher delinquency risk among low-skilled households, ii) financial education mitigates the adverse effects of increased accessibility, and iii) low mortgage rates favor high-skilled homeowners and, by reinforcing refinancing activity, deepen consumption differences across different financial skill levels. |
| Keywords: | mortgage refinancing, mortgage search, financial skills, financial education, consumption inequality |
| JEL: | E21 G51 G53 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp780&r= |
| By: | Ken Tabata (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of resource taxation policies aimed at sustainable use of resources on economic growth and consumption inequality using an R&D-based growth model with heterogeneous households. Resource taxes affect the extraction rate of non-renewable resources only if the tax rate changes over time. This paper shows that the lower growth rate of the ad valorem tax on resource use slows resource extraction and promotes economic growth but increases consumption inequality. If resource tax policies are to promote economic growth without increasing consumption inequality, resource tax revenues must be allocated for redistributive purposes. This paper also calibrates the model for quantitative analysis and finds that the lower growth rate of the tax on resource use causes a non-negligible increase in consumption inequality. |
| Keywords: | Non-renewable resources, Endogenous growth, Consumption inequality, R&D |
| JEL: | E62 H23 O30 Q32 Q38 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:272&r= |
| By: | Susan M. Collins |
| Abstract: | Susan Collins remains optimistic that inflation can be brought back to 2 percent in a reasonable amount of time and with a labor market that remains healthy. Stronger-than-anticipated inflation and economic activity suggest that achieving the Fed’s dual mandate goals may take longer than previously thought, and progress may be uneven. |
| Keywords: | inflation; federal funds rate; labor market; monetary policy; maximum employment; dual mandate |
| Date: | 2024–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:98204&r= |
| By: | Leonardo Ciambezi; Mattia Guerini; Mauro Napoletano; Andrea Roventini |
| Abstract: | In this work, we develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study the role of demand and supply factors in the determination of inflation dynamics. The model is characterized by local interactions of heterogeneous firms and households in the labor and goods markets. Imperfect information implies that market selection is imperfect, as it does not depend only on relative prices but also on firm size. We show that our model is able to generate realistic inflation dynamics, as well as a non-linear Phillips curve in line with the empirical evidence. We then find that the traditional demand-led explanation of inflation stemming from a tight labor market only holds when markets are competitive and efficient. Finally, we study the response of inflation to shocks impacting on consumption, labor productivity or energy costs. The results show that only demand shocks lead to wage-led inflation surges. Productivity shocks are entirely passed-through to prices without affecting the income distribution. Energy shocks, instead, induce sellers' inflation after changes in both firms' cost structure and profit margins. This is in line with the recent empirical evidence for the Euro Area. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, agent-based models, market structure, mark-up rates, sellers' inflation |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2024/15&r= |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the global economic consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war over a four-month period from December 2021 to March 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. The study used the Pearson correlation and two-stage least square regression methods to assess the impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global economy. It was observed that stock prices plunged on the day of the invasion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic jointly led to a significant increase in the world price of food and crude oil. The rise in the world food price index after the invasion was driven by a significant increase in the price of dairy and oils. The rise in inflation in Russia and Ukraine after the invasion was followed by a rise in inflation in countries that imposed severe sanctions on Russia, and in countries that were not involved in the conflict in any way. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Ukraine, War, Inflation, Crisis |
| JEL: | E65 E66 O5 O52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120781&r= |
| By: | Gabriele Ciminelli; Antton Haramboure; Lea Samek; Cyrille Schwellnus; Allison Shrivastava; Tara Sinclair |
| Abstract: | Employment has recovered strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic despite large structural changes in labour markets, such as the widespread adoption of digital business models and remote work. We analyse whether the pandemic has been associated with labour reallocation across occupations and triggered mismatches between occupational labour demand and supply using novel data on employers’ job postings and jobseekers’ clicks across 19 countries from the online job site Indeed. Findings indicate that, on average across countries, the pandemic triggered large and persistent reallocation of postings and clicks across occupations. Occupational mismatch initially increased but was back to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022 as employers and workers adjusted to structural changes. The adjustment was substantially slower in countries that resorted to short-time work schemes to preserve employment during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | covid-19 pandemic, occupational mismatch, reallocation |
| JEL: | E24 J23 J24 G18 |
| Date: | 2024–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaac:35-en&r= |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Montenegrin economy has rebounded strongly from the COVID-19 shock as private consumption grew, tourism recovered, and an influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine has also contributed to growth. While debt-to-GDP ratios have improved largely due to nominal effects, fiscal weaknesses remain. After prolonged political uncertainty, a new coalition government formed in October 2023. Thereafter, a new Central Bank (CBCG) Governor was appointed in December 2023. |
| Date: | 2024–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/101&r= |
| By: | Abdelkhalek Touhami; Dorothee Boccanfuso |
| Abstract: | L'idée d'un effritement de la classe moyenne marocaine est répandue, suggérant un glissement vers une classe aisée toujours plus riche et des classes plus pauvres ce qui sous-entend une augmentation de la polarisation dans la société. Cependant, aucune étude basée sur des données n'a été menée pour confirmer cette perception. Notre étude comble ce vide en analysant l'évolution de la classe moyenne entre 2012 et 2019. En utilisant la définition opérationnelle de Abdelkhalek (2014) de la classe moyenne et les données de l'Enquête Panel de l'ONDH (vagues 2012 et 2019), nous examinons les mesures de la pauvreté, des inégalités et de la polarisation pour tester la véracité de cette perception. Contrairement aux idées reçues, nos résultats indiquent que la classe moyenne n'a pas régressé au niveau national ni selon le milieu de résidence. En réalité, la croissance a été pro-pauvre sur la période. Ceci signifie que les plus pauvres ont bénéficié d'une amélioration relative de leur situation tout comme une grande partie de la classe moyenne. Ces conclusions remettent donc en question la perception d'une classe moyenne en déclin et soulignent l'importance de poursuivre les analyses basées sur des données récentes et probantes pour éclairer les débats sur la structure sociale du Maroc et son évolution. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb21-24&r= |
| By: | Huan-Yi Su; Ke Wu; Yu-Hao Huang; Wu-Jun Li |
| Abstract: | Recently, many works have proposed various financial large language models (FinLLMs) by pre-training from scratch or fine-tuning open-sourced LLMs on financial corpora. However, existing FinLLMs exhibit unsatisfactory performance in understanding financial text when numeric variables are involved in questions. In this paper, we propose a novel LLM, called numeric-sensitive large language model (NumLLM), for Chinese finance. We first construct a financial corpus from financial textbooks which is essential for improving numeric capability of LLMs during fine-tuning. After that, we train two individual low-rank adaptation (LoRA) modules by fine-tuning on our constructed financial corpus. One module is for adapting general-purpose LLMs to financial domain, and the other module is for enhancing the ability of NumLLM to understand financial text with numeric variables. Lastly, we merge the two LoRA modules into the foundation model to obtain NumLLM for inference. Experiments on financial question-answering benchmark show that NumLLM can boost the performance of the foundation model and can achieve the best overall performance compared to all baselines, on both numeric and non-numeric questions. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.00566&r= |
| By: | Stephen Ayerst; Loren Brandt; Diego Restuccia |
| Abstract: | In less developed economies the allocation of factor inputs to more productive farms is often hindered. To analyze how distortions to factor reallocation affect farm dynamics and agricultural productivity, we develop a model of heterogeneous farms that make cropping choices and invest in productivity improvements. We calibrate the model using detailed farm-level panel data from Vietnam, exploiting regional differences in agricultural institutions and outcomes. We focus on south Vietnam and quantify the effect of higher measured distortions in the North on farm choices and agricultural productivity. We find that the higher distortions in north Vietnam reduce agricultural productivity by 41%, accounting for 61% of the observed 2.5-fold difference between regions. Moreover, two-thirds of the productivity loss is driven by farms' choice of lower productivity crops and reductions in productivity-enhancing investment, which more than doubles the productivity loss from static misallocation. |
| Keywords: | Farm dynamics, productivity, size, distortions, misallocation, Vietnam. |
| JEL: | O11 O14 O4 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-775&r= |
| By: | Spencer Bastani; Daniel Waldenström |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and automation for the taxation of labor and capital in advanced economies. It synthesizes empirical evidence on worker displacement, productivity, and income inequality, as well as theoretical frameworks for optimal taxation. Implications for tax policy are discussed, focusing on the level of capital taxes and the progressivity of labor taxes. While there may be a need to adjust the level of capital taxes and the structure of labor income taxation, there are potential drawbacks of overly progressive taxation and universal basic income schemes that could undermine work incentives, economic growth, and long-term household welfare. Some of the challenges posed by AI and automation may also be better addressed through regulatory measures rather than tax policy. |
| Keywords: | AI, automation, inequality, labor share, optimal taxation, tax progressivity |
| JEL: | H21 H30 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11084&r= |
| By: | Fize, Étienne; Senik, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Cette étude porte spécifiquement sur la présence de La Poste au sein des communes françaises, mais illustre plus généralement l’impact de l’aménagement des territoires sur le bien-être et les comportements politiques des habitants. Elle révèle que les transformations de bureau de poste ont permis de stabiliser l’activité bancaire et l’activité postale qui étaient en forte baisse, sans occasionner d’impact négatif sur le bien-être local des habitants d’une commune, en étant au contraire associées à une moindre abstention aux élections présidentielles sur la période 2012-2022, et à une moindre probabilité d’événements Gilets jaunes en novembre 2018. |
| Keywords: | France, Well-Being, Retraites |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2405&r= |
| By: | Huster, Sandra; Droll, Manuel; Schultmann, Frank |
| Abstract: | Nachhaltigkeit rückt zunehmend in den Fokus der Wirtschaft und der Gesellschaft. Dies gilt insbesondere für Personenkraftwagen als Teil des Mobilitätssektors. Eine Möglichkeit, bestehende Fahrzeuge nachhaltig länger zu nutzen, ist, refabrizierte Ersatzteile zu verwenden. Bisher wird dies nur in geringem Umfang gemacht. Im Rahmen einer Online-Umfrage wurde erhoben, wie Kfz-Werkstätten zu refabrizierten Ersatzteilen stehen. Die Umfrage wurde deutschlandweit durchgeführt und wurde sowohl von Werkstätten ausgefüllt, die refabrizierte Teile anbieten, als auch von Werkstätten, die keine refabrizierten Teile verbauen. Es zeigt sich eine große Heterogenität der befragten Werkstätten hinsichtlich der Bewertung und des Einsatzes refabrizierter Kfz-Teile. Der Großteil der befragten Werkstätten sieht Vorteile hinsichtlich des Preises für die Kunden und hinsichtlich der Umweltfreundlichkeit. Kritisch betrachtet werden von Teilen der Befragten die Sicherheit und die Durchsetzbarkeit von Gewährleistungsansprüchen gegenüber den Aufarbeitern. Außerdem wird die wirtschaftliche Rentabilität für die Werkstätten teilweise infrage gestellt. Während manche Werkstätten angeben, bei Verfügbarkeit immer ein refabriziertes Ersatzteil anstelle eines Neuteils zu verwenden, geben andere an, nur selten oder nie refabrizierte Teile zu nutzen. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitiip:294820&r= |
| By: | Kasy, Maximilian (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Most definitions of algorithmic bias and fairness encode decisionmaker interests, such as profits, rather than the interests of disadvantaged groups (e.g., racial minorities): Bias is defined as a deviation from profit maximization. Future research should instead focus on the causal effect of automated decisions on the distribution of welfare, both across and within groups. The literature emphasizes some apparent contradictions between different notions of fairness, and between fairness and profits. These contradictions vanish, however, when profits are maximized. Existing work involves conceptual slippages between statistical notions of bias and misclassification errors, economic notions of profit, and normative notions of bias and fairness. Notions of bias nonetheless carry some interest within the welfare paradigm that I advocate for, if we understand bias and discrimination as mechanisms and potential points of intervention. |
| Keywords: | AI, algorithmic bias, inequality, machine learning, discrimination |
| JEL: | J7 O3 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16944&r= |
| By: | Patire, Anthony D. PhD; Dion, Francois PhD; Bayen, Alexandre M. PhD |
| Abstract: | This report explores opportunities for employing autonomous driving technology to dampen stop-and-go waves on freeways. If successful, it could reduce fuel consumption and emissions. This technology was tested in an on-road experiment with 100 vehicles over one week. Public stakeholders were engaged to assess the planning effort and feasibility of taking the technology to the next level: a pilot involving 1000+ vehicles over several months. Considerations included the possible geographical boundaries, target fleets of vehicles, and suitable facilities such as bridges or managed lanes. Flow smoothing technology may improve the user experience and operations of managed lanes or bridges, however it may require external incentives such as reduced tolls to entice the traveling public to use it. This must be matched with other goals such as verifying vehicle occupancy. It might be possible for some hybrid solution that addresses both challenges to provide a way forward. A concept of operations needs to be developed specifically for a target road geometry and a California partner. This concept should benefit from lessons learned from previous pilot projects and will need to be defined so as to achieve both (1) a penetration rate sufficient to achieve measurable effects; and (2) sufficient quality and quantity of data to confirm benefits. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Autonomous vehicles, connected vehicles, traffic flow, advanced traffic management systems, demonstration projects |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt726964qq&r= |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Karel Mertens; Hannah Rubinton |
| Abstract: | Interstate migration by working-age adults in the US declined substantially during the Great Recession and remained subdued through 2019. We document that interstate migration rose sharply following the 2020 Covid-19 outbreak, nearly recovering to pre-Great recession levels, and provide evidence that this reversal was primarily driven by the rise in work from home (WFH). Before the pandemic, interstate migration by WFH workers was consistently 50% higher than for commuters. Since the Covid-19 outbreak, this migration gap persisted while the WFH share tripled. Using quasi-panel data and plausibly exogenous changes in employer WFH policies, we address concerns about omitted variables or reverse causality and conclude that access to WFH induces greater interstate migration. An aggregate accounting exercise suggests that over half of the rise in interstate migration since 2019 can be accounted for by the rise in the WFH share. Moreover, both actual WFH and pre-pandemic WFH potential, based on occupation shares, can account for a sizable share of cross-state variation in migration. |
| Keywords: | interstate migration; work from home; remote work; labor mobility |
| JEL: | J11 J22 J61 O15 R10 |
| Date: | 2024–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98267&r= |
| By: | Lawrence Christiano; Martin S. Eichenbaum; Benjamin K. Johannsen |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates what features of an economy determine whether convergence under learning is fast or slow. In all of the models that we consider, people's beliefs about model outcomes are central determinants of those outcomes. We argue that under certain circumstances, convergence of a learning equilibrium to the rational expectations equilibrium can be so slow that policy analysis based on rational expectations is very misleading. We also develop new analytic results regarding rates of convergence in learning models. |
| JEL: | E12 E39 E70 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32358&r= |
| By: | Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio; Özak, Ömer (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity's historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8uxd4&r= |
| By: | Diwan, Ishac; Kessler, Martin; Harnoys-Vannier, Brendan |
| Abstract: | Several low-income and lower-middle income countries with access to concessional world bank financing are now negotiating a debt restructuring program, which entails the sharing of losses by the different creditors. The goal of this note is to estimate the size of losses, at the current juncture of the debt crisis, and how they can be distributed among the different types of creditors. |
| Keywords: | International development association, low-income countries, comparability of treatment, loan concessionality |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2306&r= |
| By: | Aomar Ibourk; Tayeb Ghazi |
| Abstract: | L'émergence fulgurante de l'intelligence artificielle (IA) représente un phénomène mondial, marqué par une croissance exponentielle des publications et des investissements massifs atteignant 189, 6 milliards USD en 2021, contre environ 14, 7 milliards en 2013. Cette accélération suscite une prise de conscience accrue de la nécessité pressante de mettre en place une gouvernance efficace de l'IA, comme en témoigne l'augmentation significative du nombre de projets de loi dédiés, passant de 1 en 2016 à 37 en 2022. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:pp-0424&r= |
| By: | Sabrina Leo; Andrea Delle Foglie; Luca Barbaro; Edoardo Marangone; Ida Claudia Panetta; Claudio Di Ciccio |
| Abstract: | Credit Guarantee Schemes (CGSs) are crucial in mitigating SMEs' financial constraints. However, they are renownedly affected by critical shortcomings, such as a lack of financial sustainability and operational efficiency. Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLTs) have shown significant revolutionary influence in several sectors, including finance and banking, thanks to the full operational traceability they bring alongside verifiable computation. Nevertheless, the potential synergy between DLTs and CGSs has not been thoroughly investigated yet. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework to utilise DLTs, particularly blockchain technologies, in CGS processes to improve operational efficiency and effectiveness. To this end, we compare key architectural characteristics considering access level, governance structure, and consensus method, to examine their fit with CGS processes. We believe this study can guide policymakers and stakeholders, thereby stimulating further innovation in this promising field. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.19555&r= |
| By: | Djankov, Simeon; Luksic, Igor; Zhang, Eva (Yiwen) |
| Abstract: | We find some evidence of regulatory convergence in four distinct areas of business activity over the 2005–2019 period. This convergence is most pronounced for countries in the French and German civil law tradition. |
| Keywords: | change; income; legal tradition; regulation |
| JEL: | F3 G3 J1 |
| Date: | 2022–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115270&r= |
| By: | Giuseppe Dari-Mattiacci (University of Amsterdam); Sander Onderstal (University of Amsterdam); Francesco Parisi (University of Minnesota); Ram Singh (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | It is well known that sellers have a general obligation to disclose “negative” information about hidden defects of their products. In contrast, buyers usually do not have a binding obligation to disclose “positive” information about the hidden qualities of the products. The leading explanation for the asymmetric treatment of the two sides - buyers and sellers - is provided by appealing to incentives to invest in relevant information. It is argued that the imposition of disclosure duties on buyers would undermine their incentives to acquire socially useful but costly information ex-ante. This explanation is unsatisfactory. First, the failure to correct asymmetric information problems ex-post would cause, as we will show, an inverse adverse selection problem ex-ante. This would lead to the uninformed sellers’withdrawal from the market. Consequently, resources would not move to (informed)buyers with higher valuations. In this paper, we develop a model to balance the benefits of information acquisition, on the one hand, with the costs of asymmetric information, on the other hand. We use the framework to study the incentives created by different defaultdisclosure and non-disclosure - rules. We examine the optimum default rules by showing that the choice of alternative disclosure rules makes a difference when parties can contract around defaults at a moderate cost. Unlike disclosure rules, non-disclosure default rules yield partially separating equilibria that preserve the buyers’ incentives to acquire information and foster trade opportunities between expert and uninformed sellers. JEL Code: D44, D82, D86, K12 |
| Keywords: | asymmetric information, penalty default rules, inverse adverse selection |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:346&r= |
| By: | Estey, Clayton |
| Abstract: | I contribute to stochastic modeling methodology in a theoretical framework spanning core decisions in the model's lifetime. These are predicting an out-of-sample unit's latent state even from non-series data, deciding when to start and stop learning about the state variable, and choosing models from important trade-offs. States evolve from linear dynamics with time-varying predictors and coefficients (drift) and generalized continuous noise (diffusion). Coefficients must address misprediction costs, data complexity, and distributional uncertainty (ambiguity) about the state's diffusion and stopping time. I exactly solve a stochastic dynamic program robust to worst-case costs from both uncertainties. The Bellman optimal coefficients extend generalized ridge regression by out-of-sample components impacting value changes given state changes. Performance issues trigger sequential analysis whether learning alternative models, given the effort, is better than keeping baseline. Learning is method-general and stops in fewest average attempts within decision errors. I derive preference functions for comparing models with state and cost-change constraints to decide a model, joint-time state and value distributions, and other properties beneficial to modelers. |
| Date: | 2024–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:75fc9&r= |
| By: | Alicia Vidler; Toby Walsh |
| Abstract: | We present a new type of game, the Liquidity Game. We draw inspiration from the UK government bond market and apply game theoretic approaches to its analysis. In Liquidity Games, market participants (agents) use non-cooperative games where the players' utility is directly defined by the liquidity of the game itself, offering a paradigm shift in our understanding of market dynamics. Each player's utility is intricately linked to the liquidity generated within the game, making the utility endogenous and dynamic. Players are not just passive recipients of utility based on external factors but active participants whose strategies and actions collectively shape and are shaped by the liquidity of the market. This reflexivity introduces a level of complexity and realism previously unattainable in conventional models. We apply Liquidity Game theoretic approaches to a simple UK bond market interaction and present results for market design and strategic behavior of participants. We tackle one of the largest issues within this mechanism, namely what strategy should market makers utilize when uncertain about the type of market maker they are interacting with, and what structure might regulators wish to see. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.02865&r= |
| By: | Nazam Maqbool (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Cities in Pakistan are increasingly faced with problems of erratic supply of piped water and unsafe and declining levels of groundwater. Additionally, over one-third (35 to 40 percent) of piped water is wasted through leakages and theft in the water distribution networks.[1] By 2050, the country’s urban population is expected to double in size (from 81 million in 2022 to 160 million in 2050 or from 37.7 percent of the total population to 52.2 percent) (see table 1). Providing water for these citizens is a challenging task; finding money to pay for the provision of that water is at least as daunting. Urban water tariffs are low and infrequently adjusted, even with current efforts at reform. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2024:115&r= |
| By: | Liesebach, Mirko; Schneck, Volker |
| Abstract: | Every four years, the National Poplar Commissions reports on the progress of the International Poplar Commission IPC, one of the oldest, firmly established organizations of the FAO (Organization for Food and Agriculture of the United Nations). The reports will be collected and published for the 27th session of the International Poplar Commission in Bordeaux in October 2024. For Germany, the Thünen Institute of Forest Genetics is compiling the report on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture. With the reform of the Poplar Commission, the tree species spectrum was expanded to include also other fast-growing tree species despite poplars and willows. In Germany, in addition to poplars and willows, 12 other tree species are considered fast-growing. Based on the figures from the Federal Forest Inventory (2012), the area of fast-growing tree species is 1.645 million ha. The most common fast-growing tree species is Betula pendula (474 700 ha) followed by Alnus glutinosa (229 250 ha), Larix decidua (223 600 ha), Pseudotsuga menziesii (217 600 ha) and Populus spec. (147 900 ha, incl. willow SRC). The current cultivation of poplars and willows is largely limited to short rotation coppice plantations (SRC). In Germany the total short rotation coppice area is currently stagnating at 6 600 hectares. The factors responsible for this are attractive alternative crops, in particular maize cultivation for biogas, combined with the extensive ban on the conversion of grassland and a lack of impetus from the Greening Regulation passed at EU level. No poplar clones were approved in the reporting period. An extension of the approval was recommended for 4 aspen clones. Furthermore, changes to the approval as basic material for the production of forest reproductive material in the "Tested" category were recommended for several parents of families for the production of hybrid larch progenies. A total of 17 research projects and 38 joint research projects (with together 117 projects) carried out at 60 institutions in Germany on the genetics and breeding, cultivation, physiology, resistance of fast-growing tree species and the harvesting and short-utilization of their wood, as well as on socio-economic and socio-ecological aspects were funded by third parties and have been included in the report. Also, 142 publications are listed in the report. |
| Abstract: | Alle vier Jahre berichten die Nationalen Pappelkommissionen über den Entwicklungsfortschritt der Internationalen Pappelkommission IPC, eine der ältesten, festverankerten Organisationen der FAO (Organisation für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft der Vereinten Nationen). Die Berichte werden gesammelt und zur 27. Tagung der Internationalen Pappelkommission in Bordeaux im Oktober 2024 veröffentlicht. Für Deutschland stellt das Thünen-Institut für Forstgenetik im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft den Bericht zusammen. Mit der Reform der Pappelkommission wurde das Baumartenspektrum auf schnellwachsende Baumarten erweitert. In Deutschland werden neben Pappeln und Weiden 12 weitere Baumarten als schnellwachsende betrachtet. Anhand der Zahlen aus der Bundeswaldinventur (2012) ergibt sich eine Fläche mit schnellwachsenden Baumarten von 1, 645 Mio. ha. Die häufigste schnellwachsende Baumart ist die Betula pendula (474 700 ha) gefolgt von Alnus glutinosa (229 250 ha), Larix decidua (223 600 ha), Pseudotsuga menziesii (217 600 ha) und Populus spec. (147 900 ha, incl. Weide KUP). Der aktuelle Anbau von Pappeln und Weiden beschränkt sich weitgehend auf Kurzumtriebsplantagen. Die gesamte Kurzumtriebsplantagenfläche stagniert in Deutschland derzeit bei 6 600 Hektar. Dafür verantwortliche Faktoren sind attraktive Alternativkulturen, insbesondere Maisanbau für Biogas, verbunden mit dem weitgehenden Verbot der Umwandlung von Grünland sowie mangelnde Impulse aus der auf EU-Ebene beschlossenen Greening-Verordnung. Im Berichtszeitraum wurden keine Pappelklone zugelassen. Für 4 Aspenklone wurde eine Verlängerung der Zulassung befürwortet. Weiterhin wurden bei mehreren Familieneltern zur Erzeugung von Hybridlärchen-Nachkommenschaften Änderungen in der Zulassung als Ausgangsmaterial zur Erzeugung von forstlichem Vermehrungsgut in der Kategorie 'Geprüft' empfohlen. Siebzehn Forschungsprojekte und 38 Verbundprojekte (mit zusammen 117 Einzelvorhaben) wurden durch Drittmittel an 60 Institutionen in Deutschland zur Genetik und Züchtung, Anbau, Physiologie, Resistenzen von schnellwachsenden Baumarten sowie Ernte und Verwertung ihres Holzes und zu soziökonomischen bzw. -ökologischen Aspekten gefördert. 142 Veröffentlichungen sind im Bericht erfasst. |
| Keywords: | Populus, Salix, Larix × eurolepis, Robinia pseudoacacia, Larix decidua, Quercus rubra, Pseudotsuga menziesii, cultivated area, short rotation coppice, forest reproductive material, research projects, publication, Anbaufläche, Kurzumtriebsplantage, forstliches Vermehrungsgut, Forschungsprojekte, Veröffentlichung |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:294821&r= |
| By: | Aline Mortha (Waseda University); Toshi H. Arimura (Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | Partial energy taxation, such as fuel or electricity taxes, is gaining momentum in recent years, but such taxes may result in additional demand for non-taxed, substitute energy goods. In this research, we analyze the effect of the Japanese renewable levy, a prime example of implicit carbon pricing, introduced in 2012. Using data on Japanese plants between April 2004 to March 2020, we utilize the existence of a partial exemption scheme from the tax, and instruments for identification. Our results show that the levy had undesirable consequences, as it is associated with a rebound in emissions for certain sectors where electricity and fuels are substitute (iron & steel, +52%; pulp &paper, +13%). This rebound is explained by a greater share of electricity generated onsite, powered by fossil fuel. We show that the levy provided an incentive for plants to switch from clean (gas) to dirty (coal, oil) fuels. While the tax is generally correlated with gains in electricity and energy efficiency, these efforts are not enough to offset there bound in emissions. Our results shed light on the effect of partial energy taxation on the manufacturing industry, and suggest the need for explicit and complete forms of carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | Implicit Carbon Pricing; Renewable levy; Energy-intensive industry; Interfuel substitution |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2404&r= |