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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2024‒05‒27
twenty papers chosen by |
| By: | Randrianarisoa, Radoniaina |
| Abstract: | This article presents an essay of a macroeconomic modeling dedicated on monetary policy, a Quarterly Projection Model for the case of Madagascar. Initially, we apply the canonical model, developed by Berg-Karam-Laxton (2006a, b), to the data of the Malagasy economy. Subsequently, we propose an extension of this version to further incorporate features of this economy. The results show simulations that closely replicate the stylized facts of the Malagasy economy and highlight the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. This tool could be useful to the Monetary Authority of this country in its conduct of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, inflation, core inflation, output gap, inflation targeting, quarterly projection model |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120678&r=mac |
| By: | Gonzalo Garcia-Atance Fatjo |
| Abstract: | A tool to improve the effectiveness and the efficiency of public spending is proposed here. In the 19th century banknotes had a serial number. However, in modern days the use of digital transactions that do not use physical currency has opened the possibility to digitally track almost each cent of the economy. In this article a serial number or tracking number for each cent, pence or any other monetary unit of the economy is proposed. Then, almost all cents can be tracked by recording the transactions in a public distributed ledger, rather than recording the amount of the transaction, the information recorded in the block of the transaction is the actual serial number or tracking number for each cent that changes ownership. In order to keep the privacy of the transaction, only generic identification of private companies and individuals are recorded along with generic information about the concept of transaction, the region and the date/time. A secondary public distributed ledger whose blocks are identified by a hash reference that is recorded in the bank statement available to the payer and the payee allows for checking the accuracy of the first public distributed ledger by comparing the transactions made in one day, one region and one type of concept. However, the transactions made or received by the government are recorded with a much higher level of detail in the first ledger and a higher level of disclosure in the second ledger. The result is a tool that is able to accurately track public spending, to keep privacy of individuals and companies and to make statistical analysis and experiments or real tests in the economy of a country. This tool has the potential to assist public policymakers in demonstrating the societal benefits resulting from their policies, thereby enabling more informed decision-making for future policy endeavours. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.13189&r=mac |
| By: | Natalia ANDRIES (ERUDITE, Université Paris-Est); Steve BILLON (LaRGE Research Center, Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | This paper theoretically investigates the effect of bank cost-efficiency on the transmission of monetary policy impulses to bank lending rates. In a monopolistic competition setting that displays increasing marginal costs, we show that the distortion of the interest rate pass-through depends on the nature of the bank cost-efficiency shock. If banks increase their cost-efficiency on loan activities, the monetary policy transmission is strengthened. Instead, if banks experience an improvement in their cost-efficiency on deposit activities, the interest rate pass-through is weakened. |
| Keywords: | Bank cost-efficiency; Bank interest rates; Monetary policy transmission; Interest rate pass-through; Bank imperfect competition |
| JEL: | E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lar:wpaper:2024-04&r=mac |
| By: | Tianbao Zhou; Zhixin Liu; Yingying Xu |
| Abstract: | Based on the quarterly data from 26 advanced economies (AEs) and 18 emerging market economies (EMs) over the past two decades, this paper estimates the short- and medium-term impacts of financial cycles on the duration and amplitude of public debt cycles. The results indicate that public debt expansions are larger than their contractions in duration and amplitude, aligning with the "deficit bias hypothesis" and being more pronounced in EMs than in AEs. The impacts of various financial cycles are different. Specifically, credit cycles in EMs significantly impact the duration and amplitude of public debt cycles. Notably, short- and medium-term credit booms in EMs shorten the duration of public debt contractions and reduce the amplitude. Fast credit growth in AEs prolongs the duration of public debt expansions and increases the amplitude. However, credit cycles in AEs show no significant impact. For house price cycles, the overall impact is stronger in EMs than in AEs, differing between short- and medium-term cycles. Finally, the impact of equity price cycles is significant in the short term, but not in the medium term. Equity price busts are more likely to prolong the expansion of public debt in EMs while increasing the amplitude of public debt contractions in AEs. Uncovering the impacts of multiple financial cycles on public debt cycles provides implications for better debt policies under different financial conditions. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.17412&r=mac |
| By: | Victor Vasnetsov (Caribbean Environmental Development Institute); Catherine Vasnetsov (Caribbean Environmental Development Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates trends in cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) in the European Union (EU), both pre-COVID and during the COVID epidemic, in its correlations with several major macroeconomic and financial factors. We established that EU cross-border M&A transaction volume during the 2000-2023 period was positively correlated to European stock market performance, exchange rate (Euro/US dollar), and EU economic uncertainty, and inversely correlated to stock market valuations and cost of debt capital. All these correlations were found to be highly statistically significant. COVID?s overall impact could be split into two different phases: first, the initial massive ?shock? (March ? June 2020) with its highly disruptive effect to all types of economic activities (including cross-border M&A). In the later, longer phase (July 2020 ? April 2022), COVID itself had no statistically significant impact on a strong rebound in the economy and M&A activity despite two larger waves of COVID epidemic (winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22). The latter could be explained by the rapid adjustment of economies and societies to effective remote work and by the massive monetary and fiscal interventions by EU governments. This unprecedented government stimulus had a rapid, positive, and sustainable effect on the economies and the stock market more than just offsetting the initial negative impact of COVID, and temporarily distorted historical relationships of M&A activity with macroeconomic factors. |
| Keywords: | EU mergers and acquisitions (M&A), Cross-border M&A, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | G34 I15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14115993&r=mac |
| By: | Michael Heine; Hansjoerg Herr |
| Abstract: | Der Preisniveauschock ab 2021, der vor allem durch den Krieg in der Ukraine ausgeloest wurde, stellt die Lohnpolitik vor schwierige Herausforderungen. Theoretische und empirische Überlegungen zeigen, dass für alle Arbeitnehmer eine Überwälzung der Wohlfahrtsverluste, die durch die Energiepreiserhöhungen entstanden sind, auf die Kapitalseite nur begrenzt möglich ist. Die Erfahrungen der Inflationswelle und der Ölpreisschocks der 1970er Jahre zeigen, dass eine Lohnpolitik, welche einen vollständigen Ausgleich von Preisschocks durchsetzt, zu hoher Inflation und letztlich zu harter restriktiver Geldpolitik mit Arbeitslosigkeit führt. Aus makroökonomischer Perspektive zu empfehlen ist nach einem Preisniveauschock eine solidarische Lohnpolitik, welche die Nominallöhne moderat anhebt und stärkere Lohnerhöhungen für Arbeitnehmer mit niedrigen Löhnen anstrebt. Notwendig ist eine Unterstützung dieser Strategie durch die Fiskalpolitik, welche die negativen Verteilungseffekte eines Preisniveauschocks abmildert und die realen Nachfrageausfälle, die mit dem Schock verbunden sind, ausgleicht. Die Geldpolitik sollte in einer solchen Konstellation vorsichtig agieren und die Inflationswelle durch die Ökonomie durchlaufen lassen. |
| Keywords: | price shocks, inflation, wages, monetary policy, developments in the1970s |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:86-2023&r=mac |
| By: | Gubitz, Andrea; Toedter, Karl-Heinz; Ziebarth, Gerhard |
| Abstract: | Despite the "interest rate turnaround" initiated by the ECB in the second half of 2022 as a late reaction to the clearly underestimated persistence of high inflation rates in the euro area, real interest rates are by no means to be regarded as restrictive, neither in the ex post nor in the ex ante view. However, banks have been quite quick to adopt stricter lending guidelines, and demand in housing construction and mortgage lending has plummeted. Against this background, the paper discusses the importance of cash flow effects in annuity loans and in particular analyses the so-called front-loading effect. Accordingly, even if inflation rates are fully anticipated and real market and lending interest rates remain unchanged, higher nominal rates lead to strong additional financial burdens in the first phases of the typically mortgages with long maturities. Such liquidity effects can severely reduce the ability or willingness to pay of private investors in the household sector. This is particularly true for long-run loans in the form of a percentage annuity, as an additional maturity shortening effect occurs here. These types of fixed term loans are quite popular in Germany. Looking ahead, there is also a real risk to the stock of housing loans if there is a refinancing of the large stock of cheap housing loans, a risk that also has implications for macroeconomic and financial stability. |
| Abstract: | Trotz der von der EZB eingeleiteten "Zinswende" in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2022 als späte Reaktion auf die deutlich unterschätzte Persistenz hoher Inflationsraten im Euroraum sind die Realzinsen sowohl in der ex post Betrachtung als auch in der ex ante Betrachtung keineswegs als restriktiv einzuschätzen. Die Banken haben allerdings recht rasch strengere Vergaberichtlinien beschlossen, und die Nachfrage im Wohnungsbau und bei den Hypothekarkrediten ist stark eingebrochen. Der Beitrag thematisiert vor diesem Hintergrund die Bedeutung von Zahlungsstromeffekten bei Annuitätenkrediten und analysiert hier vor allem den sog. front-loading Effekt. Danach führen höhere Nominalzinsen selbst bei vollständig antizipierten Inflationsraten und unveränderten Realzinsen zu starken finanziellen Zusatzbelastungen in den ersten Phasen der typischerweise langen Kreditlaufzeit. Derartige Liquiditätseffekte können die Zahlungsfähigkeit bzw. die Zahlungsbereitschaft der privaten Investoren empfindlich verringern. Dies gilt vor allem bei Darlehen in Form der Prozentannuität, da hier zusätzlich ein Laufzeitenverkürzungseffekt auftritt. Solche Darlehen sind in Deutschland recht populär. Mit Blick auf die Zukunft besteht auch eine reale Gefahr für den Bestand an Wohnungsbaukrediten, wenn es zu einer Refinanzierung des großen Bestands an günstigen Wohnungsbaukrediten kommt, ein Risiko, das auch Auswirkungen auf die makroökonomische und finanzielle Stabilität hat. |
| Keywords: | ECB, monetary policy, liquidity effects of interest rate policy, front loading effects, housing finance, mortgage |
| JEL: | G21 G51 E59 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hawdps:294836&r=mac |
| By: | Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo |
| Abstract: | Synthetic control methods are a data-driven way to calculate counterfactuals from control individuals for the estimation of treatment effects in many settings of empirical importance. In canonical implementations, this weighting is linear and the key methodological steps of donor pool selection and covariate comparison between the treated entity and its synthetic control depend on some degree of subjective judgment. Thus current methods may not perform best in settings with large datasets or when the best synthetic control is obtained by a nonlinear combination of donor pool individuals. This paper proposes "machine controls", synthetic controls based on automated donor pool selection through clustering algorithms, supervised learning for flexible non-linear weighting of control entities and manifold learning to confirm numerically whether the synthetic control indeed resembles the target unit. The machine controls method is demonstrated with the effect of the 2017 labour deregulation on worker productivity in Brazil. Contrary to policymaker expectations at the time of enactment of the reform, there is no discernible effect on worker productivity. This result points to the deep challenges in increasing the level of productivity, and with it, economic welfare. |
| Keywords: | causal inference, synthetic controls, machine learning, labour reforms, productivity |
| JEL: | B41 C32 C54 E24 J50 J83 O47 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1181&r=mac |
| By: | López Cabrera, Jesús Antonio; González Mata, Enrique A.; Quiñonez Wu, Juan S. |
| Abstract: | En este estudio se analizan las medidas de política monetaria puestas en marcha durante la pandemia de COVID-19 en los países de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana (CARD), así como en el período de recuperación inmediata, y se examina su impacto en la actividad económica. Para ello, se realiza un análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo sobre las políticas monetarias puestas en marcha en el período 2020-2022. En el análisis cuantitativo se emplean técnicas econométricas de VAR y panel. Los resultados muestran que las diversas medidas implementadas tuvieron efectos reducidos sobre el agregado de la actividad económica. Es posible que otro tipo de políticas, como las fiscales, financieras y regulatorias, hayan contribuido a disminuir en mayor medida el impacto negativo de la pandemia de COVID-19 sobre la actividad económica. |
| Date: | 2024–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col031:69129&r=mac |
| By: | Frida Adjalala; Felipe Alves; Hélène Desgagnés; Wei Dong; Dmitry Matveev; Laure Simon |
| Abstract: | D’après notre évaluation, les taux nominaux neutres aux États-Unis et au Canada se situent tous deux dans une fourchette de 2, 25 à 3, 25 %, soit un peu plus haut que la fourchette de 2, 0 à 3, 0 % estimée en 2023. La fourchette évaluée est revenue au même niveau qu’en avril 2019. |
| Keywords: | Modèles économiques; Politique monétaire; Taux d'intérêt |
| JEL: | E4 E40 E43 E5 E50 E52 E58 F4 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:24-9fr&r=mac |
| By: | Stephane Hallegatte (World Bank); Florent McIsaac (World Bank); Hasan Dudu (International Monetary Fund); Charl Jooste (World Bank); Camilla Knudsen (World Bank); Hans Beck (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | In 2022 the World Bank Group launched a new core diagnostic tool: the Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). Published for 42 economies so far, CCDRs use resilient and low-emission development scenarios to identify synergies and tradeoffs between development and climate objectives. There are several modeling challenges associated with the analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of these development pathways, including those related to the nonmarginal nature of the required transformation, the role of technologies, and the replacement of fossil fuel-based assets with greener ones. To address some of these challenges, several CCDRs have used a hybrid modeling approach that combines a set of sectoral analyses with macroeconomic models. Specifically, sectoral techno-economic models are employed to construct resilient and low-emission development trajectories in key sectors. The macroeconomic implications of these sectoral transitions are then assessed by linking the sectoral models with two macroeconomic frameworks: a multisector general equilibrium framework and an aggregate macrostructural model. This hybrid approach combines the advantages of multiple tools and captures the various dimensions of the transition, including the need to tackle multiple market failures, beyond the emissions externality; analyze price and nonprice policies and their interactions; represent explicitly the replacement of assets and infrastructure; assess the macroeconomic feasibility of the sectoral transitions and the required investments. This paper uses the case of Turkey to describe the methodological approach and summarizes the results of the CCDRs that have been published to date. Findings suggest that, despite large investment needs, the transition can contribute positively to economic growth, especially when indirect mitigation benefits are taken into account, but only if structural challenges can be managed, climate and development policies are well designed, and negative impacts on some sectors or communities are mitigated. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic modeling; climate change; technological change |
| JEL: | E60 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-6&r=mac |
| By: | Dushyn, Oleksiy; Dushyn, Borys |
| Abstract: | This paper investigated an important practical problem of extracting information from rare events in sparse and high-dimensional data while building a linear regression model. It analyzes the advantages and the limitations of the different linear regression method used for high-dimensional problems. Main known meth-ods were selected and tested on the real Tripadvisor.com dataset. The results of this research show the impor-tance of the data aggregation based on hierarchical clustering. It allows extracting information from rare fea-tures by aggregating them according the clustering tree. Comparative analyses of main different linear regres-sion methods that use clustering aggregation were done. |
| Keywords: | rare events, regression Analysis, sparse data, high-dimensional data, Lasso, Ridge, ElasticNet, rare methods, text mining, semantic aggregation, hierarchical clustering, vector word representation. |
| JEL: | C51 C63 C87 |
| Date: | 2024–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120235&r=mac |
| By: | Yuki Uchida (Faculty of Economics, Seikei University); Tetsuo Ono (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | Implications of increased life expectancy on parental fertility decisions and subsequent shifts in political influence between younger and older generations carry significant consequences for government policies concerning education and pension. This study introduces an overlapping generations growth model incorporating these effects, qualitatively indicating that increased life expectancy correlates with lower fertility rates, decreased education expenditure-GDP ratio, and increased pension benefit-GDP ratio. A model simulation evaluates the impact of the projected increase in life expectancy until 2100 on four country groups: synthetic rich OECD, synthetic rich OECD Europe, Japan, and the United States. The findings demonstrate similar trends as in the qualitative analysis, yet growth rates are projected to vary significantly across regions and countries due to differing life expectancy increases. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Public Pension; Public Education; Probabilistic Voting; Overlapping Generations |
| JEL: | D70 E62 H52 H55 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2407&r=mac |
| By: | Erik Ens; Alexander Lam; Kurt See; Gabriela Galassi |
| Abstract: | Nous évaluons la santé du marché du travail canadien et constatons un assouplissement à la fois graduel et notable depuis 2023, ainsi que certains signes de changements structurels. |
| Keywords: | Cycles et fluctuations économiques; Marchés du travail; Méthodes économétriques et statistiques; Politique monétaire |
| JEL: | E2 J2 J3 J6 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:24-8fr&r=mac |
| By: | Böttger, Tom; Vischer, Lars |
| Abstract: | Referees and their assistants are faced with the challenge of making correct decisions in complex and high-speed game situations. Subconscious bias on the part of referees and the resulting systematic favouring of teams have already been shown many times in sports economics and impair fairness in football. Since the 2017/2018 season, the video assistant referee (VAR) has been used as a technical support for referees to correct clearly incorrect decisions. Based on 2, 448 games and 1, 880 match situations reviewed by the VAR from the 2019/2020 to 2022/2023 seasons, this study examines whether the VAR is a suitable instrument to counteract the bias of referees on the field. The analyses carried out reveal that the VAR is only able to accomplish this to a limited extent. Even with technical support, human bias remains in the decision-making process. |
| Abstract: | Schiedsrichter und ihre Assistenten stehen vor der Herausforderung, in komplexen und in hoher Geschwindigkeit stattfindenden Spielsituationen korrekte Entscheidungen zu treffen. Unterbewusste Voreingenommenheit von Schiedsrichtern und die daraus resultierende systematische Bevorzugung von Teams wurden in der Sportökonomik bereits vielfach nachgewiesen und beeinträchtigen die Fairness im Fußball. Seit der Saison 2017/2018 wird der Videoschiedsrichter (VAR) als technische Unterstützung für Schiedsrichter genutzt, um klare Fehlentscheidungen zu korrigieren. Anhand von 2.448 Partien und 1.880 vom VAR überprüften Spielsituationen der Spielzeiten 2019/2020 bis 2022/2023 wird untersucht, ob der VAR ein geeignetes Instrument ist, um dem Bias von Schiedsrichtern entgegenzuwirken. Die durchgeführten Analysen offenbaren, dass der VAR hierzu nur begrenzt in der Lage ist, denn auch mit technischer Unterstützung verbleibt menschlicher Bias im Entscheidungsprozess. |
| Keywords: | Bias, Decision, Football, Rule, VAR |
| JEL: | D83 D91 L83 Z20 Z21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:294851&r=mac |
| By: | Giulio Cornelli; Leonardo Gambacorta; Rodney Garratt; Alessio Reghezza |
| Abstract: | Decentralised finance (DeFi) lending protocols have experienced significant growth recently, yet the motivations driving investors remain largely unexplored. We use granular, transaction-level data from Aave, a leading player in the DeFi lending market, to study these motivations. Our theoretical and empirical findings reveal that the search for yield predominantly drives liquidity provision in DeFi lending pools, whereas borrowing activity is mainly influenced by speculative and, to some extent, governance motives. Both retail- and large investors seek potential high returns through market movements and price speculation, however the latter engage in DeFi borrowing relatively more than the former also to influence protocol decisions and accrue more significant governance rights. |
| Keywords: | cryptocurrency, DeFi, decentralized finance, lending |
| JEL: | G18 G23 O39 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1183&r=mac |
| By: | Rogelio Mercado Jr.; Luca Sanfilippo |
| Abstract: | Portfolio bond flows to emerging and developing market economies (EDMEs) from multi-sector bond funds (MSBFs) are volatile and highly concentrated, rendering them potentially risky. This paper uses a recent MSBF flows dataset to shed more light on capital flow push and pull factors and to provide new evidence on the effectiveness of capital account tightening measures in reducing volatile MSBF flows. The results show: (i) higher U.S. monetary policy rates and global risk aversion significantly reduce aggregate MSBF flows and those denominated in hard currencies, while stronger global commodity price growth and global liquidity significantly increase them; (ii) global and domestic GDP growth (surprisingly) have a countercyclical impact on MSBF flows during our sample period, and, importantly, (iii) capital account tightening measures that target fixed income investment funds are effective in reducing MSBF flows to EDMEs, especially during periods of increased stress. Together, these results provide new insights into multi-sector bond funds and the importance of designing and implementing targeted capital control measures. |
| Keywords: | multi-sector bond funds, portfolio bond flows, and capital controls |
| JEL: | G23 F21 F38 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-28&r=mac |
| By: | Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Elliot Aurissergues (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Bruno Coquet (DARES - Direction de l'animation de la recherche, des études et des statistiques - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La croissance française atteindrait 0, 5 % en moyenne annuelle en 2024. Cette révision à la baisse de notre prévision de croissance par rapport à celle d'octobre 2023, qui était de 0, 8 %, s'explique principalement par un acquis de croissance pour 2024 plus faible que prévu (finalement inférieur de -0, 15 point de PIB pour 2024 par rapport à nos prévisions antérieures) et un nouveau programme d'ajustement budgétaire de 10 milliards d'euros dont l'impact sur le PIB est estimé à -0, 2 point de PIB en 2024. En 2025, la croissance française est attendue à 1, 2 % malgré les effets positifs liés à la baisse des taux (0, 2 point de PIB). Mais elle serait contrainte par les nouveaux ajustements budgétaires prévus par le gouvernement de 20 milliards d'euros en 2025 (dont l'impact sur le PIB est estimé à -0, 6 %), en plus de la suppression totale des boucliers tarifaires. L'inflation baisserait en 2024 (2, 4 % après 4, 9 % en 2023) et serait proche de la cible de 2 % en 2025. Le retournement du marché du travail se poursuit en raison de la faible croissance de l'activité et du rattrapage partiel des pertes de productivité passées, conduisant à une hausse du taux de chômage à 8, 2 % fin 2024 puis 8, 1 % fin 2025 (hors effet de la réforme du RSA). Le taux d'épargne resterait élevé en 2024 mais baisserait en 2025, soutenant la consommation malgré un pouvoir d'achat peu dynamique en 2025 après le rebond de 2024 (0, 2 % après 1 % en 2024 par unité de consommation). En raison d'une forte chute de certaines assiettes fiscales (immobilier, bénéfices des sociétés…), le déficit public a atteint 5, 5 % du PIB en 2023, soit 0, 6 point de plus que ce qui était prévu dans le projet de loi de finances pour 2024. En raison de l'extinction des mesures de soutien budgétaire exceptionnel et des nouveaux ajustements structurels attendus de 1 point de PIB sur deux ans, le déficit public baisserait à 5 % du PIB en 2024 et 4, 4 % en 2025, malgré la hausse des charges d'intérêt et la dégradation du déficit conjoncturel. Après trois ans de baisse, la dette publique, en points de PIB, repartirait à la hausse en 2024 et 2025 en raison d'une croissance nominale qui baisse avec le reflux de l'inflation. Elle atteindrait 112, 8 % du PIB en 2025, après 111, 9 % en 2024 et 110, 6 % en 2023. |
| Keywords: | comptes, perspectives, croissance française, économie française |
| Date: | 2024–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04540970&r=mac |
| By: | Van Nurden, Pauline |
| Abstract: | The 2023 Annual Report of the Southwest Minnesota Farm Business Management Associaton includes 116 member farms. Highlights of association financial results for 2023. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:342298&r=mac |
| By: | Sundarvalli Narayanaswami; Anumeha Saxena |
| Abstract: | Policy initiatives to manage gold imports in India have historically relied on the use of customs duty. However, the presence of a multi-duty structure essentially offers gold traders a legal channel to re-route imports with little risk of punitive action. In this paper, we present multiple instances from FY 2023-24 where importers have significantly exploited these loopholes to import at lower rates. We also observe that exhaustive identification of alternative routes that traders can potentially exploit is infeasible. Reactive interventions to curb the traders taking advantage of the loopholes or gaps in policies are also not helpful in the long run. Traders are quick enough to snoop out the best possible channels to maximize their outcomes, which systemically leads to uneven playing fields for different types of traders. Subsequently, we show that the use of multiple taxation structures as a tool to contain Current Account Deficit (CAD) and to facilitate a level-playing market for importers of various sizes, in-fact is counter-effective. Traders are able to quickly discover more loopholes and are able to legally increase their import volumes at lesser imports duty. The current multi-duty structures to manage gold imports and in turn, India’s current account deficit, continue to be weak. To curb such unintended discounts and imports arbitrage in the domestic gold market, it is recommended that a single import duty is levied on all variants of the precious metal. |
| Date: | 2024–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14711&r=mac |