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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2024‒05‒13
twenty papers chosen by |
| By: | Cañon, Carlos (Bank of England); Gerba, Eddie (Bank of England); Pambira, Alberto (Bank of England); Stoja, Evarist (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the tail risk of currency returns of nine countries, from 2000 to 2020, were impacted by central bank monetary and liquidity measures across the globe with an original and unique dataset that we make publicly available. Using a standard factor model, we derive theoretical measures of tail risks of currency returns which we then relate to the various policy instruments employed by central banks. We find empirical evidence for the existence of a cross-border transmission channel of central bank policy through the FX market. The tail impact is particularly sizeable for asset purchases and swap lines. The effects last for up to one month, and are proportionally higher in a hypothetical joint QE action scenario. This cross-border source of tail risk is largely undiversifiable, even after controlling for the US dollar dominance and the effects of its own monetary policy stance. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional and conventional monetary policy; liquidity measures; currency tail risk; systematic and idiosyncratic components of tail risk |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1068&r=mac |
| By: | Ida, Daisuke |
| Abstract: | This study explores how the real money balance effect (RMBE) affects the neo-Fisherian effect (NFE) in a standard new Keynesian model. First, we find that the presence of the RMBE can partly explain the occurrence of the NFE, and that increasing the nonseparability parameter magnifies the positive response of the nominal interest rate to a persistent inflation target shock. Second, we show that the degree of nominal price stickiness is important in explaining how the RMBE amplifies the NFE. In sum, this study addresses how the presence of the RMBE facilitates generating the NFE. |
| Keywords: | Neo-Fisherian effect; New Keynesian model; Real money balances; Interest rates; Inflation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120575&r=mac |
| By: | Coroneo, Laura (University of York); Kaminska, Iryna (Bank of England); Pastorello, Sergio (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a non-linear framework to evaluate spillovers across domestic and international yield curves when policy rates are constrained by the zero lower bound. Based on the sample of US and UK data, we estimate a joint shadow rate model of international yield curves, accounting for the zero lower bound, no-arbitrage conditions within and between government bond markets, and the global nature of some of the bond risk factors. Results indicate that the post-2009 US monetary policy transmission mechanism and its spillover effects on the UK yield curve are non-linear and asymmetric. |
| Keywords: | Joint term structure models; local projections; monetary policy; non-linear responses; shadow rate term structure models; yield curve; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E43 E47 E52 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1062&r=mac |
| By: | Rupal Kamdar (Indiana University); Walker Ray (London School of Economics and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Using survey data, we show that consumers’ economic beliefs are driven by one component, which observationally behaves like “sentiment.” Surprisingly, “optimistic” consumers expecting an expansion also predict disinflation, contrasting with professional forecasts. We explain these facts in a New Keynesian model where rationally inattentive consumers face fundamental uncertainty regarding aggregate demand and supply shocks. Optimal information-gathering economizes on information costs but compresses the dimensionality of consumer beliefs. Moreover, because supply-driven recessions are more costly for typical households relying on labor income, more attention is optimally devoted to supply shocks. Inflation is hence perceived as countercyclical; the apparent “sentiment” factor structure of beliefs reflects consumers’ optimal focus on aggregate supply shocks. Business cycle dynamics depend crucially on the evolution of aggregate belief misperceptions. Finally, policies which aim to stimulate the economy by raising inflation expectations can have counterproductive consequences. |
| Keywords: | expectations, rational inattention, surveys, business cycles |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2024003&r=mac |
| By: | Yaovi Mawuena; Julien Martin |
| Abstract: | There is no empirical study on the effects of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic employment in Canada. This note explains the importance of examining this issue and proposes a series of preliminary results on this question from the analysis of the effect of FDI on employment in 35 metropolitan regions, 16 sectors, and 20 years. The results show that outward FDI have a positive effect on local employment, indicating a form of complementarity between foreign investments and domestic employment. This complementarity is more pronounced in the extraction, manufacturing, and professional services sectors. It is also more pronounced when investments are directed towards OECD member countries. The complementarity between outward FDI and local employment suggests that policies supporting outward FDI could be considered on par with export support policies or policies to attract inward FDI to Canada. Il n’existe pas d’étude empirique sur les effets des investissements directs à l’étranger (IDE) sortants sur l’emploi domestique au Canada. Cette note explique l’importance d’examiner cette question et propose une série de résultats préliminaires sur cette question à partir de l’analyse de l’effet des IDE sur l’emploi dans 35 régions métropolitaines, 16 secteurs et 20 années. Les résultats montrent que les IDE sortants ont un effet positif sur l’emploi local, ce qui traduit une forme de complémentarité entre investissements à l’étranger et emploi domestique. La complémentarité est plus marquée dans les secteurs de l’extraction, de la fabrication et les services professionnels. Elle est aussi plus marquée lorsque les investissements sont dirigés vers des pays membres de l’OCDE. La complémentarité entre IDE sortant et emploi local suggère que des politiques de soutien des IDE sortant pourraient être envisagées au même titre que les politiques de soutien à l’exportation ou des politiques d’attraction des IDE entrant au Canada. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, Local employment, Spillovers, Metropolitan areas, Economic development, Investissements directs étrangers, Emploi local, Spillovers, Aires métropolitaines, Développement économique |
| Date: | 2024–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2024pr-01&r=mac |
| By: | Jaime Arellano-Bover; Fernando Saltiel |
| Abstract: | We present evidence that is consistent with large disparities across firms in their on-the-job learning opportunities, using administrative datasets from Brazil and Italy. We categorize firms into discrete “classes”—which our conceptual framework interprets as skill-learning classes—using a clustering methodology that groups together firms with similar distributions of unexplained wage growth. Mincerian returns to experience vary widely across experiences acquired in different firm classes. Four tests leveraging firm stayers and movers, occupation and industry switchers, hiring wages, and displaced workers point towards a portable and general human capital interpretation. Heterogeneous employment experiences explain an important share of wage variance by age 35, thus contributing to shape wage inequality. Firms’ observable attributes only mildly predict on-the-job learning opportunities. |
| Keywords: | human capital, firms, on-the-job learning, wage growth |
| JEL: | J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11031&r=mac |
| By: | David Xiao |
| Abstract: | A Hedge Fund Index is very useful for tracking the performance of hedge fund investments, especially the timing of fund redemption. This paper presents a methodology for constructing a hedge fund index that is more like a quantitative fund of fund, rather than a weighted sum of a number of early replicable market indices, which are re-balanced periodically. The constructed index allows hedge funds to directly hedge their exposures to index-linked products. That is important given that hedge funds are an asset class with reduced transparency, and the returns are traditionally difficult to replicate using liquid instruments. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.15925&r=mac |
| By: | Iota Kaousar Nassr; Eleftheria Kostika; Anastasia Melachrinos |
| Abstract: | Decentralised exchanges (DEXs) are on-chain platforms where traders can exchange one crypto-asset for another. DEXs play an increasingly important role in the decentralised finance (DeFi) market, particularly in the aftermath of the recent downturn in the crypto-asset market. This working paper explores the characteristics of DEXs and identifies areas of possible concentration in decentralised exchanges activity and potential associated risks. To substantiate the analysis, it uses an original on-chain dataset covering the largest DEXs. The paper reveals an increased concentration within DeFi trading in the sample observed, which could exacerbate vulnerabilities already present in DeFi markets. |
| Date: | 2024–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaad:49-en&r=mac |
| By: | Goldring, Thomas (Georgia State University); Ribar, David C. (Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | High-quality childcare services are vital to children's development and family wellbeing but are not equitably accessed by all children. Programs supported by the Child Care Development Fund (CCDF) have the potential to reduce these inequities. Economically eligible Black children use CCDF-supported services at higher rates than other children, but less is known about disparities in the characteristics of those services. This study uses weekly subsidy records from Georgia's Childcare and Parent Services (CAPS) program to examine racial, ethnic, and geographic differences in the types, modes, quality, proximity, and stability of care and in subsidy payments, co-payments, and subsidy use. The study distinguishes between unconditional differences that it observes in children's experiences and conditional disparities that it estimates after accounting for children's needs and other characteristics. It interprets the conditional disparities as evidence of inequity. The analysis uncovers many unconditional racial and ethnic differences in subsidized care outcomes and several geographic differences. However, the study finds fewer (and mostly smaller) conditional differences, including very few conditional differences between non-Hispanic Black and White children. The results suggest that there is substantial equity in participating children's use of CAPS services. |
| Keywords: | equity, childcare arrangements, subsidized child care, race and ethnicity, geography, administrative data, Georgia |
| JEL: | J13 I38 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16902&r=mac |
| By: | Carole Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Amélie Carrère (IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Roméo Fontaine (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Agnès Gramain (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jérôme Wittwer (BPH - Bordeaux population health - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale) |
| Abstract: | Measuring the accessibility of care in nursing homes (Ehpads) is a key-element in the monitoring and evaluation of public policies for disabled elderly people. The relevance of such a measure is reinforced by the current context in many OECD countries, where the aging of the population is combined with the wish of public authorities to limit the creation of Ehpads new places. This note proposes a new family of measurement indicators, specifically designed to assess the consequences of French public policies, particularly in terms of territorial equity : to take into account of the potentially high out-of-pocket expenses and of the fact that regulation is largely decentralized at the departmental councils, these indicators aim to quantify the geographical and financial accessibility of Ehpad (AGFE), for a given individual, according to income level and location. The main indicator defined here can be adapted by modifying the target groups, or by integrating rules for prioritizing potential demand. |
| Abstract: | Mesurer l'accessibilité des prises en charge en établissement d'hébergement médicalisé (type Ehpad) est un élément important pour le pilotage et l'évaluation des politiques publiques de l'autonomie. L'intérêt d'une telle mesure est renforcé dans le contexte que connaissent de nombreux pays de l'OCDE, marqué par le vieillissement démographique mais la volonté des pouvoirs publics de restreindre le nombre de nouvelles places créées. Dans une perspective d'évaluation des conséquences de l'action publique, notamment en termes d'équité territoriale, la présente note propose une nouvelle famille d'indicateurs de mesure, adaptée aux politiques publiques françaises. Pour intégrer l'effet de restes-à-charge potentiellement élevés et de la décentralisation partielle de la régulation aux conseils départementaux, ils visent à quantifier l'accessibilité géographique et financière aux Ehpad (AGFE), pour un individu donné, en fonction de son niveau de revenu et de sa localisation. L'indicateur princeps défini ici peut être décliné en modifiant la population cible ou en intégrant des règles de priorisation des demandes potentielles. |
| Keywords: | Elderly, Nursing homes, Long-term care, Acces to care, Measure, Data, Personnes âgées, Perte d’autonomie, Ehpad, Accès aux soins, Indicateurs de mesure, Données |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04521336&r=mac |
| By: | Gold, Robert; Lehr, Jakob |
| Abstract: | Wie kann der Aufstieg des Populismus gestoppt werden? Angesichts der bevorstehenden Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament und der Präsidentschaftswahlen in den USA beschäftigt diese Frage politische Entscheidungsträger in vielen westlichen Demokratien. Unsere Studie zeigt, dass regionalpolitische Maßnahmen die Unterstützung populistischer Parteien wirksam verringern können. Konkret finden wir, dass die EU-Regionalpolitik, die in die Entwicklung von rückständigen Regionen investiert, dazu führt, dass der Stimmenanteil rechtspopulistischer Parteien um 15-20% sinkt. Darüber hinaus erhöhen regionalpolitische Investitionen das Vertrauen in demokratische Institutionen und verringern die Unzufriedenheit mit der EU. |
| Abstract: | How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15-20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU. |
| Keywords: | Populismus, Regionalpolitik, Europäische Integration, Regressionsdiskontinuitätsdesign, Populism, Regional Policies, European Integration, Regression Discontinuity Design |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:289602&r=mac |
| By: | Baumgart, Sabine; Gärtner, Stefan; Harten, Thomas; Hoffschröer, Holger; Meyer, Kerstin; Raddatz, Andrea; Schneider, Uta; Schoppengerd, Johanna; Sievers, Lars; Söfker-Rieniets, Anne; Stibane, Fabian; Stiehm, Sebastian; Wiese-von Ofen, Irene |
| Abstract: | Produktion (Handwerk, Manufakturen, Landwirtschaft und Industrie) als Teil der nutzungsgemischten Stadt ist ein wichtiger Bezugspunkt einer nachhaltigen und sozial integrativen Stadtentwicklung. Viele Städte haben dazu Strategien entwickelt und auch die Neue Leipzig-Charta 2020 plädiert im Sinne der produktiven Stadt für die (Re-)Integration von Produktion. Eine nachhaltige Stadtentwicklung sollte aber nicht nur Produktion re-integrieren, sondern insbesondere die Verdrängung und Desintegration stoppen, um die nahräumliche Erreichbarkeit unterschiedlicher Nutzungen zu erhalten. Hierzu stehen verschiedene Handlungsmöglichkeiten auf architektonischer sowie stadt- und regionalplanerischer Ebene zur Verfügung. Nichtsdestotrotz besteht für eine angemessene Förderung und Sicherung Urbaner Produktion rechtlicher Novellierungsbedarf. So sollte in der BauNVO der Begriff des produzierenden Gewerbes als Nutzungsart aufgenommen werden. Weiterhin sollte die Erhaltungssatzung nach §172 BauGB auch für produzierendes Gewerbe gelten. Auch eröffnet die Experimentierklausel in der TA Lärm neue Wege. Ferner ist zu prüfen, ob rechtliche Regelungen zum Schutz von gemieteten Gewerberäumen geschaffen werden sollten. |
| Abstract: | Production (crafts, manufacturing, agriculture and industry) as part of the mixed-use city is an important factor in ensuring sustainable and socially inclusive urban development. Many cities have developed relevant strategies and the New Leipzig Charter 2020 also advocates the (re)integration of production in urban areas to create productive cities. However, sustainable urban development should not only re-integrate production, but should stop displacement and disintegration in order to maintain the spatial accessibility of different functions. Various architectural, urban and spatial planning options for achieving this are available. There is nonetheless a need for legal amendments to adequately promote and safeguard urban production. For example, the term commercial production should be included as a type of land use in the Federal Land Utilisation Ordinance (BauNVO). Furthermore, the preservation statutes under Section 172 of the Building Code (BauGB) should also apply to commercial production. The experimental clause in the Technical Instruction on Noise Abatement (TA Lärm) also opens up new avenues. In addition, it should be examined whether legal regulations to protect rented commercial premises are required. |
| Keywords: | Urbane Produktion, produktive Stadt, gewerbliche Standortsicherung, Urban production, productive city, protecting commercial locations |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:290411&r=mac |
| By: | Krause, Thomas; Sfrappini, Eleonora; Tonzer, Lena; Zgherea, Cristina |
| Abstract: | The establishment of the European Banking Union constitutes a major change in the regulatory framework of the banking system. Main parts are implemented via directives that show staggered transposition timing across EU member states. Based on the newly compiled Banking Union Directives Database, we assess how banks' funding costs responded to the Capital Requirements Directive IV (CRD IV). Our findings show an upward trend in funding costs which is driven by an increase in cost of equity and partially offset by a decline in cost of debt. The diverging trends are most present in countries with an ex-ante lower regulatory capital stringency, which is in line with banks' short-run adjustment needs but longer-run benefits from increased financial stability. |
| Keywords: | banking union, CRD IV, funding costs, staggered difference-in-difference estimators |
| JEL: | C52 G01 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:289797&r=mac |
| By: | Martina Luskova (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Kseniya Bortnikova (Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating women against human papillomaviruses (HPV) in the Czech Republic, where HPV is the main cause of most cervical carcinomas. It examines the cost-effectiveness of the current reimbursement policy for HPV vaccination compared to the suggested change. Using a homogeneous multistate Markov model, we approximate transitions among states that represent the progression stages of cervical carcinoma, utilizing healthcare reimbursement data from public health insurance. The analysis reveals that increasing immunization coverage from 65.8% to 80% is cost-effective, given the threshold of 1.2 million CZK per quality-adjusted life year. Similarly, expanding the eligible age for vaccination reimbursement from 13 to include ages 13 through 15 years, while also increasing coverage, results in comparable cost-effectiveness. Despite certain limitations, our findings suggest that enhancing the immunization coverage of HPV vaccination for women is economically justified. Consequently, we advocate for the implementation of the proposed policy modifications. |
| Keywords: | Cost-effectiveness, Markov model, HPV, vaccination, cervical carcinoma, women, Czech Republic |
| JEL: | I11 I13 I18 C61 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_16&r=mac |
| By: | Kagerl, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kruppe, Thomas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Short-time work has proven to be a good instrument for securing employment in crises, most recently during the coronavirus pandemic, when its use reached an unprecedented peak in April 2020 with up to six million people being in short-time work simultaneously. However, very little is known about which people receive how much short-time working allowance. Short-time work is initiated by establishments, but the establishments’ notification is accompanied by an accounting sheet listing all employees (subject to social security contributions) who are in short-time work. During the pandemic, information on the individual receipts of short-time working allowances for the period from March 2020 to December 2021 was automatically extracted for the first time, using an automated optical character recognition procedure. We show that many characters could not be recognized by the program and are therefore missing. In addition, there are a range of implausible values. After cleaning the data, we validate the newly generated data by comparing it with establishment-level short-time work data and existing administrative employee data sets. This allows us to generate a foundation of high-quality short-time work data. We then use marginal distributions for the number of people in short-time work (taken from the statistics department of the Federal Employment Agency) to carry out a weighting procedure (namely, iterative proportional fitting). Specifically, for each month, the marginal distributions by gender, establishment size, economic sector and region as well as the total work loss are taken into account. Using the weighting allows to make representative statements, also with regard to previously unknown dimensions of short-time work, e.g. by level of education during the pandemic. We show that the weighting procedure works well in this case (e.g. it produces weight distributions without outliers) and has a high degree of flexibility. In addition, the weighting shows, for example, that employees from large establishments with 250 or more employees are underrepresented in the data on the individual utilization of short-time work benefits. This selection appears to be due to the fact that the text recognition procedure aborted the extraction of data from long notification lists after an unspecified number of pages. Using the new- data and the weighting procedure, we calculate a series of new descriptive results on the use of short-time work during the pandemic. We focus on two measures: The ratio of short-time workers to all employees within a group and the average wage loss of short-time workers within a group. The average wage loss describes the share of wages which is lost due to short-time work and which is partially reimbursed by the Federal Employment Agency. Overall, the results show that low-skilled and low-income workers were significantly more affected by short-time work. Firstly, the short-time work rate was higher in these groups and, secondly, they had a higher average wage loss when in short-time work. At the short-time work peak in spring 2020, around 19 percent of all employees subject to social security contributions were in short-time work, with an average wage loss of 50 percent. The rate of employees in short-time work was 22 percent for those without a vocational degree, but only 14 percent for those with a university degree. The differences based on gross monthly pay were even greater for full-time employees: A third of all full-time employees with gross wages of less than 2, 000 Euro were in short-time work in April 2020, but only 14 percent of employees earning wages higher than 4, 000 Euro. At the same time, employees with gross monthly wages of less than 2000 Euro had an average wage loss in the event of short-time work that was – at more then 50 percent on average – 20 to 25 percentage points higher than for those earning wages higher than 4000 Euro. Another result of the analysis is that the sharp increase in short-time work at the turn of the year 2020/2021 is mainly driven by employees with a low level of education and relatively low wages. Looking at occupational patterns, we show that the short-time work rate in spring 2020 was highest in production occupations. Thereafter, it was higher in service occupations, especially in personal services, where the resurgence of short-time work during the second lockdown was particularly pronounced. In the case of short-time work, the average loss of wages is however higher in service occupations across the entire period. In conclusion, we note that - despite the incompleteness of the data - the new individual data on short-time work offer further potential, e.g. with respect to longitudinal analyses." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–04–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202405&r=mac |
| By: | Bertoli, Simone; Clerc, Melchior; Loper, Jordan; Fernández, Èric Roca |
| Abstract: | Giuliano and Nunn (2021), GN henceforth, provide econometric evidence that ancestral climatic variability is negatively associated with the current importance of tradition using a variety of data sources. This replication focuses on the results that use individual-level data and identifies major discrepancies between several econometric specifications described in the article and their corresponding code. We are able to correct most of these mistakes by realigning the code with the text. Once corrections are implemented, we obtain almost invariably a smaller and non-significant coefficient for climatic variability. |
| Keywords: | cultural persistence, tradition, languages |
| JEL: | F22 Z13 N10 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:116&r=mac |
| By: | Thomas Renault; David Restrepo Amariles; Aurore Troussel |
| Abstract: | We build a novel database of around 285, 000 notes from the Twitter Community Notes program to analyze the causal influence of appending contextual information to potentially misleading posts on their dissemination. Employing a difference in difference design, our findings reveal that adding context below a tweet reduces the number of retweets by almost half. A significant, albeit smaller, effect is observed when focusing on the number of replies or quotes. Community Notes also increase by 80% the probability that a tweet is deleted by its creator. The post-treatment impact is substantial, but the overall effect on tweet virality is contingent upon the timing of the contextual information's publication. Our research concludes that, although crowdsourced fact-checking is effective, its current speed may not be adequate to substantially reduce the dissemination of misleading information on social media. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.02803&r=mac |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute; United Nations Development Programme |
| Abstract: | Analysis of a comprehensive survey of Sudanese rural households conducted from November 2023 to January 2024 by IFPRI and UNDP reveals significant socioeconomic impacts of the ongoing armed conflict on the Sudanese population, underscoring the need for immediate and targeted policy and programmatic interventions. The conflict has severely disrupted rural household incomes and exacerbated existing vulnerabilities related to their housing and access to infrastructure and services. Most households live in inadequate housing conditions, with disparities in access to water, electricity, and sanitation services posing additional challenges. Rural households’ low access to assets, including agricultural land, further complicates their livelihoods. The conflict, primarily concentrated in urban areas, particularly Khartoum, has triggered mass migration, with significant numbers relocating to states like Aj Jazirah and Gedaref. These migrants, often from relatively better-off backgrounds, face substantial income losses, necessitating basic needs support and enhanced provision of public services, particularly for the large families that are more likely to migrate. Agriculture, a critical sector for rural livelihoods, has been significantly affected across all states. Most households reported not cultivating land during the summer season of 2023 due to the conflict. The sharp reduction in the area of crops planted underscores the need for support for farming activities, particularly for smallholder households. The survey highlights extensive exposure to shocks among rural households, with personal shocks, such as illnesses among household members, being the most common. Natural and climatic shocks, although less prevalent, alongside conflict-related shocks, like theft and violence, emphasize the complex challenges faced by these communities. Market access and disruptions have further impacted rural households, with a considerable proportion of rural households unable to sell or buy goods, primarily due to high prices and sharp reductions in income for most households. These market challenges, coupled with the overall economic instability, necessitate interventions aimed at maintaining and improving market accessibility and functionality to promote recovery and resilience. The findings from the analysis of the survey data lend support to designing and implementing comprehensive strategies that address the immediate needs of displaced populations and other rural households affected by income losses and market disruptions. Enhancing public services, supporting livelihoods, building resilience through shock-responsive social protection systems, agricultural and economic interventions, and ensuring equitable access to resources and markets for all households, particularly those headed by women and vulnerable groups, are the principal policy recommendations that emerged from this analysis. This study of rural household livelihoods amid the armed conflict in Sudan provides a foundation for targeted interventions and policy reforms aimed at mitigating the conflict’s impacts and fostering long-term resilience and economic stability. |
| Keywords: | livelihoods; armed conflicts; household surveys; impact assessment; migration; resilience; food security; assets; market access; shock; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprwp:140797&r=mac |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Alexander Herzog-Stein (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Peter Hohlfeld (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Katja Rietzler (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Sabine Stephan (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Thomas Theobald (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Silke Tober (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Sebastian Watzka (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Die Wachstumsaussichten für die Weltwirtschaft sind verhalten. Die Weltkonjunktur dürfte 2023 und 2024 nur langsam expandieren. Dabei erholt sich der Welthandel im Verlauf nur allmählich; im Jahresdurchschnitt 2024 dürfte er um 2, 5 % zunehmen, nach 2, 4 % in diesem Jahr. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird sich 2023 nach der leichten Rezession im Winterhalbjahr und einer Stagnation im zweiten Quartal, in der zweiten Jahreshälfte nur zögerlich erholen. Die Jahresverlaufsrate des BIP beträgt im Jahr 2023 0, 3 %. Im Jahresdurchschnitt wird es - aufgrund der rückläufigen Raten im Winterhalbjahr - um 0, 5 % abnehmen. Im nächsten Jahr setzt sich die Erholung fort. Das BIP wird im Durchschnitt um 1, 2 % zunehmen, im Jahresverlauf um 1, 4 %. Die Verbraucherpreise in Deutschland werden 2024 langsamer steigen als in diesem Jahr. Seit Januar 2023 kommen die Gas- und Strompreisbremsen zum Tragen. Dadurch schwächt sich die Teuerungsrate weiter ab. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2023 wird der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise 5, 3 % betragen. Im Jahresverlauf 2024 dürfte sich die Inflationsrate wieder der Zielrate der EZB annähern; im Jahresdurchschnitt steigt sie um 2, 4 %. Trotz der schwachen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung bleibt der Arbeitsmarkt im Prognosezeitraum robust. Die Arbeitslosenzahl wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2023 um rund 150.000 Personen zunehmen; im nächsten Jahr bleibt sie nahezu unverändert. Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt in beiden Jahren 5, 5 % (2022: 5, 3 %); das sind rund 2, 6 Millionen Personen. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:report:182-2023&r=mac |
| By: | Miguel Faria-e-Castro; Samuel Jordan-Wood |
| Abstract: | An analysis suggests that commercial real estate exposures may have been a relevant driver of bank holding company stock returns in 2023. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; bank stock |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:98110&r=mac |