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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2024‒05‒06
fifty papers chosen by |
| By: | Oliver Pfäuti; Fabian Seyrich; Jonathan Zinman |
| Abstract: | Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity in cognitive skills and overconfidence to an otherwise standard HANK model. Overconfidence proves to be the key innovation, driving households to spend instead of precautionary save and producing empirically realistic wealth distributions and hand-to-mouth shares and MPCs across the income distribution. We highlight implications for various fiscal policies. |
| JEL: | D01 D91 E03 E2 E21 E22 E32 E62 G51 H31 H6 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32305&r=mac |
| By: | Issam Samiri |
| Abstract: | I propose a general equilibrium model with endogenous defaults and a banking sector operating under a Value-at-Risk constraint. Analytical examination reveals that (a) the Value-at-Risk rule introduces a risk premium on bank lending, (b) this risk premium fluctuates with the business cycle, amplifying the impact of real shocks, and (c) bank leverage also fluctuates with real shocks, but its cyclical behaviour depends on the shocks' effects on default expectations, credit demand, and the bank's balance sheet. Assuming TFP shocks as the sole exogenous source of fluctuation, the model quantitatively replicates realistic fluctuations in banks' leverage, equity, lending, and credit spreads. |
| Keywords: | RBC, Value-at-Risk, bank leverage, Credit Spreads, Financial Frictions |
| JEL: | E13 E32 E44 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:555&r=mac |
| By: | Hassan Afrouzi; Marina Halac; Kenneth S. Rogoff; Pierre Yared |
| Abstract: | We present a simple long-run aggregate demand and supply framework for evaluating long-run inflation. The framework illustrates how exogenous economic and political economy factors generate central bank pressures that can impact long-run inflation as well as transitions between steady states. We use the analysis to provide a fresh perspective on the forces that drove global inflation downward over the past four decades. We argue that for inflation to remain low and stable in the future, political economy factors, such as strengthened central bank independence or more credible public debt policy, would need to offset the global economic pressures now pushing average long-run inflation upwards. |
| JEL: | E5 E6 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32308&r=mac |
| By: | Sepp, Tim Florian; Israel, Karl-Friedrich; Treitz, Benjamin; Hartl, Tom |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of the ECB's monetary policies on the resilience of the German banking system between 1999 to 2022. We distinguish between the main bank types in Germany: Large Banks, Regional Banks, Sparkassen, Landesbanken and Credit Unions. We proxy bank-type resilience by a zscore measure. We use structural monetary policy shocks relying on high-frequency identification methods. Unconventional monetary policy shocks are decomposed into three parts: timing shocks, forward guidance, and quantitative easing. We estimate the resilience of German bank types in response to expansionary monetary policy shocks by producing impulse response functions through local projections. Conventional monetary easing is associated with weakened resilience for all bank types. Unconventional monetary policies have heterogeneous effects on German bank types. Shocks to short-term interest rate expectations (i.e. timing shocks) are associated with increasing resilience of Large Banks, Regional Banks and Landesbanken, but with decreasing resilience of the others. Forward guidance only has a positive impact on the resilience of Sparkassen. Large-scale asset purchases through quantitative easing tend to the increase resilience of Large Banks and Sparkassen, but decrease the resilience of Regional Banks, Credit Unions and Landesbanken, in both, the short and long run. |
| Keywords: | Resilience, Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Banking System, Germany |
| JEL: | E42 E52 G21 M41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:leiwps:289620&r=mac |
| By: | Theo Janse van Rensburg; Erik Visser |
| Abstract: | The surge in commodity prices is strongly correlated with upward surprises in global inflation outcomes and a major driver of emerging market exchange rate appreciation, including the rand. For South Africa, the improvement in the terms of trade have significantly improved the current account, boosted real incomes and welfare as well as the fiscus, and aided the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher commodity prices have increased the cyclical fiscal revenue component to nearly 5% of GDP in 2020/21 thereby almost fully offsetting the negative effects of the conventionally-measured increase in the output gap (caused by lower consumption and production). If the revenue boost from the terms of trade unwinds before other spending and growth have increased (and the output gap has closed), fiscal deficits will increase sharply. We estimate an income gap and use a command GDP concept to show that demand may be less suppressed than suggested by the output gap. Nonetheless, given the size of the boost to income, factors such as higher taxes and more saving lean against higher spending. In these conditions, monetary policy may have limited impact. |
| Date: | 2022–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:oboens:11042&r=mac |
| By: | Marco Cipriani; Daniel Fricke; Stefan Greppmair; Gabriele La Spada; Karol Paludkiewicz |
| Abstract: | As shown in a past Liberty Street Economics post, in the United States, the yields of money market fund (MMF) shares respond to changes in monetary policy rates much more than the rates of bank deposits; in other words, the MMF beta is much higher than the deposit beta. Consistent with this, the size of the U.S. MMF industry fluctuates over the interest rate cycle, expanding during times of monetary policy tightening. In this post, we show that the relationship between the policy rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the size of European MMFs investing in euro-denominated securities is also positive—as long as policy rates are positive; after the ECB introduced negative policy rates in 2015, that relationship broke down, as MMFs received large inflows during this period. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; euro-denominated money market funds; Pass-through |
| JEL: | G23 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2024–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:98056&r=mac |
| By: | Salzmann, Leonard |
| Abstract: | Sign-restricted SVARs are typically characterized by high identification uncertainty. However, using external proxies can be helpful in this context. In this paper, I use business survey data to inform an SVAR of aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks for the euro area. In the surveys, companies report input factors that limit their business activities. I show that sign-identified model sets are very heterogenous and produce shocks that are only weakly related to survey-based input shortage indicators. In contrast, combining sign restrictions with information from these shortage indicators narrows the set of admissible impulse response functions and affects policy-related conclusions drawn from the model. |
| Keywords: | Proxy VARs, SVAR, sign restrictions |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:289576&r=mac |
| By: | Nic Spearman |
| Abstract: | Central banks world-wide are working to future-proof their role in a rapidly changing digital world. In this context, retail central bank digital currency (rCBDC) presents a potential tool for addressing key policy challenges going forward. These include monetary policy transmission, financial stability, payment system inefficiencies, and financial market failures. Addressing these challenges as well as improving integration with global payment systems are central to the SARBs strategic focus areas. Various rCBDC projects are in experimental stage working to assess policy uses and potential designs. These provide useful case studies for the SARB to understand the need for rCBDC and its potential policy spill-over effects. Understanding these impacts is important for ensuring the SARBs capacity to respond timeously and appropriately to the rapidly changing digital payment environment. For policy makers concerned by the prospect of currency substitution, a key economic lesson is that issuing rCBDC will not arrest currency substitution as it does not address the underlying economic factors that drive substitution. |
| Date: | 2022–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:oboens:11040&r=mac |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | Between 1980 and 2022, the shipbuilding composite index grew an average of 1.2 percentage points faster per year than the GDP deflator did. Looking ahead, a gap of roughly 1 percentage point would be consistent with historical experience. |
| JEL: | C43 D43 E31 H56 H57 H60 H68 J31 J41 L16 L64 N42 N62 N72 |
| Date: | 2024–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:59026&r=mac |
| By: | Thomas Graeber (Harvard Business); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne, IZA, ECONtribute, CEPR, NHH, and Max-Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods); Constantin Schesch (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | When people exchange ideas, both truths and falsehoods can proliferate. We study the role of explanations for the spread of truths and falsehoods in 15 financial decision tasks. We pay participants to record the reasoning behind each of their answers, providing over 6, 900 unique verbal explanations in total. A separate group of participants either only observe one orator’s choice or additionally listen to their explanation before making their own choice. Listening to explanations strongly improves aggregate accuracy. This effect is asymmetric: explanations enable the spread of truths, but do not curb the contagion of falsehoods. To study mechanisms, we extract every single argument provided in the explanations alongside a large collection of speech features, revealing the nature of financial reasoning on each topic. Explanations for truths exhibit a significantly richer message space and higher argument quality than explanations for falsehoods. These content differences in the supply of explanations for truths versus falsehoods account for 60% of their asymmetric benefit, whereas orator and receiver characteristics play a minor role. |
| Keywords: | : Explanations, Social Learning, Speech Data, Financial Knowledge, Financial Reasoning |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:291&r=mac |
| By: | Qixin Zhan (China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics); Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank; Institute for Advanced Study, Wuhan University; Institute for Advanced Study, Shenzhen University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an examination of the crucial role played by the right to keep and bear arms in protecting individuals’ life, liberty, and property. Through our analysis, we demonstrate that the accumulation of firearms, serving as a means of safeguarding life, liberty, and property rights, leads to advancements in physical capital accumulation, output production, and overall welfare. Utilizing a robust mathematical model, we offer theoretical support for the natural right to bear arms, a principle deeply ingrained in ancient wisdom and enshrined in modern constitutional frameworks, notably exemplified by the Second and Fourth Amendments of the US Constitution. |
| Keywords: | Arms spending, Private property, Capital accumulation, Economic growth |
| JEL: | E20 E22 H56 O10 O40 P16 P48 |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:626&r=mac |
| By: | Tersoo David Iorngurum (Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The interest rate pass-through represents a vital transmission mechanism between the financial sector and the real economy. Nonetheless, the empirical literature offers no consensus regarding the direction and extent of asymmetry in this pass-through. In this paper, I systematically review the empirical literature using various contemporary meta-analytic techniques to test for publication bias and establish consensus for the conflicting study outcomes. I find evidence of publication bias. Beyond publication bias, the magnitude of the reported pass-through declines relative to the simple literature average, but substantial asymmetry remains. Precisely, bank lending rates appear to be a lot more responsive to increases than decreases in monetary policy interest rates. Furthermore, I identify the factors responsible for diverse study outcomes. These include study characteristics, asymmetry, and macrofinancial variables. Concerning study characteristics, results differ due to differences in data frequency, data source, the researched period, study quality, author affiliation, and estimation context. Concerning macrofinancial factors, results differ due to differences in openness to foreign direct investment inflows, openness to trade, the inflationary environment, and economic development status. The pass-through is particularly strong in countries more open to foreign direct investment inflows and developed economies but relatively weak for countries more open to import trade and countries with a high inflationary environment. Finally, I model the interest rate pass-through based on the best practices in the literature. On average, the short-run pass-through to bank lending rates is about 49.7% for a policy rate hike and about 29.7% for a policy rate cut. On the other hand, the long-run pass-throughs are about 69.6% and 46.6%, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Interest rate pass-through, asymmetry, meta-analysis |
| JEL: | E43 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_17&r=mac |
| By: | Shanyu Han; Jian Lei; Yang Liu |
| Abstract: | The consumer store is ubiquitous and plays an important role in our everyday lives. It is an open question why stores usually have such short life cycles (typically around 3 years in China). This paper proposes a theoretical framework based on an equilibrium in style supply of stores and style demand of consumers to characterize store cash flow (revenue), leading to a strong explanation of this puzzle. In our model, we derive that the preference shifting of consumers is the main reason for the cash flow decreasing to its break-even line over time, while the visibility broadening leads to initial growth, resulting in rainbow-shaped cash flow and its life cycle. Moreover, the intensified spatial competition will lead to an unexpected decrease in the store's cash flow, or even closure. We calibrate our model with proprietary data of three Chinese stores from three representative industries and study the relationship between customers' preference shifting and cash flow. To our knowledge, there have been no prior attempts to quantitatively model the life cycle of the store. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.02426&r=mac |
| By: | Ebele S. Nwokoye (Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Nigeria); Stephen K. Dimnwobi (Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Nigeria); Favour C. Onuoha (Evangel University Akaeze, Nigeria); Chekwube V. Madichie (University of York, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | An inquiry into the impact of external and domestic borrowings is considered timely for Nigeria, given the growing public debt profile amid deteriorating human capital development. Using data from 1990 to 2021, the study estimates the effects of domestic and external debts on Nigeria’s human capital development. The study employed the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and canonical cointegration regression (CCR) as the main estimation technique and the robustness check respectively. The study discovered that domestic and external debt, economic growth and debt servicing exert positive and significant influence on human capital development in Nigeria while environmental pollution has an inverse and significant impact on human capital development in Nigeria. Premised on the outcomes, policy suggestions aimed at enhancing human capital development in Nigeria have been put forward. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria, Domestic debt, External debt, Human capital development |
| JEL: | H63 H68 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/006&r=mac |
| By: | Benson, Alex J (Western University); Woodley, Hayden Jerney Randolph (University of Western Ontario); Jensen, Lynden Dale; Hardy, James |
| Abstract: | We applied the social evaluation framework to investigate the traits desired in an “ideal” follower, which were compared to the traits desired in an “ideal” leader. Across three studies and five samples, both differences and similarities in role-specific preferences mapped onto the Vertical-Horizontal dimensions of the social evaluation framework in ways that aligned with the demands of each role. Traits higher on the Horizontal-morality facet (e.g., cooperative, dutiful) and lower on the Vertical-assertiveness facet (e.g., confident, ambitious) differentiated ideal follower preferences from ideal leader preferences. Focusing on the traits most strongly desired in relation to each role, traits that supported social coordination and collective goal attainment (i.e., work ethic, cooperativeness) were prioritized in relation to ideal followers, whereas intelligence was prioritized for ideal leaders. Trustworthiness was equally valued across both roles. Moreover, we differentiated between necessary and luxury traits by adjusting the budget individuals could allocate towards the desired traits. Investments in necessary versus luxury traits further supported the social evaluation framework and highlighted the need to account for the facet-level distinctions within the Vertical (assertiveness, ability) and Horizontal (morality, friendliness) dimensions. Further, these findings were found to be robust across manipulations (e.g., the target’s gender and hierarchical level). |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:6v8d9&r=mac |
| By: | Bruno, Lars Christian (BI Norwegian Business School); Grytten, Ola Honningdal (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This short paper uses recent estimates of GDP per capita for the Baltic countries for the 1919-2020(22) period to test for convergence between the Baltic and the Nordic economies. Drawing from the methodology used in Bernard and Durlauf (1996) and Greasley and Oxley (1997), we utilise a time-series approach to test for bivariate convergence between the various Baltic and Nordic economies. We find some evidence of conditional convergence and catching up for the interwar period, 1919-1939 and the post-Soviet era 1993-2022, when for the communist growth period until 1988 we find no trace of convergence, when thereafter during the last years of communism, the Baltic economies went into a severe and devastating recession. |
| Keywords: | Baltic; Scandinavia; economic growth; convergence; historical national accounts |
| JEL: | N14 N34 N94 O47 O52 |
| Date: | 2024–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2024_005&r=mac |
| By: | Susan Knox; Palesa Mnguni; Pieter Pienaar; Witness Simbanegavi |
| Abstract: | Over the past two years, both global and domestic producer prices have risen markedly. This has raised concerns that the high producer inflation may eventually be passed onto consumer prices. This note compares producer and consumer price indices and the implications for pass-through of PPI to CPI inflation. We find strong co-movement between final PPI and goods CPI, but somewhat weaker co-movement with headline CPI. This suggests that some pass-through should be expected, particularly for the closely related baskets such as final PPI and goods CPI. However, the material differences between the indices, together with competition considerations, will serve to moderate pass through. |
| Date: | 2022–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:oboens:11041&r=mac |
| By: | Aurélien Goutsmedt (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain, FNRS - Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique [Bruxelles]); Francesco Sergi (UPE - Université Paris-Est, LIPHA - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire d'étude du Politique Hannah Arendt Paris-Est - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel); Béatrice Cherrier (ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique, X - École polytechnique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François Claveau (UdeS - Université de Sherbrooke, CIRST - Centre interuniversitaire de recherche sur la science et la technologie - UdeM - Université de Montréal - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal); Clément Fontan (Université Saint-Louis - Bruxelles, UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Juan Acosta (Univalle - Universidad del Valle [Cali]) |
| Abstract: | Why do policymakers and economists within a policymaking institution choose to throw away a model and to develop an alternative one? Why do they choose to stick to an existing model? This article contributes to the literature on the history and philosophy of modelling by answering these questions. It delves into the dynamics of persistence, change, and building practices of macroeconomic modelling, using the case of forecasting models at the Bank of England (1974-2014). Based on archives and interviews, we document the multiple factors at play in model building and model change. We identify three sets of factors: the agency of modellers, institutional factors, and the material factor. Our investigation shows the diversity of explanations behind the decision to change a model: each time, model replacement resulted from a different combination of the three types of factors. |
| Keywords: | Central bank, Forecasting, Macroeconomic modeling, Bank of England, Models |
| Date: | 2024–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04181871&r=mac |
| By: | Jon D. Wisman |
| Abstract: | Ever since exploitation and extreme inequality became possible with the rise of the state, ideology serving the interests of elites has almost always persuaded non-elites that the prevailing social order is also in their best interest. This ideology was first expressed in religion that evolved to depict extremely unequal social conditions as in accord with sacred forces. Ideology provided a more efficient means of maintaining exploitation than violence. With the rise of capitalism, secular doctrines, and especially political economy and then economics, joined and eventually mostly replaced religion in justifying inequality. Since the late eighteenth century, laissez faire has been the dominant expression of this ideology. Only once, due to the extreme hardship of the Great Depression, has it been sufficiently delegitimated such that public policies were enacted that reduced inequality and significantly improved the quality of life for non-elites. However, laissez-faire ideology resurged to dominance in the 1970s, resulting in policies over the next half century that have led to exploding inequality. The fact that this ideology survived intact the Great Recession following the financial crisis of 2008 poses the question of whether it can again be adequately delegitimated. Yet there is urgency that this occurs prior to the death of democracy and thus capability of avoiding ecological Armageddon. This chapter suggests that only an adequately attractive alternative social vision to that of laissez-faire capitalism might delegitimate laissez-faire ideology. It concludes with a brief sketch of such a vision. |
| Keywords: | Ideology, exploitation, inequality, legitimation, material progress vision |
| JEL: | B15 N40 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:2024-02&r=mac |
| By: | Matthew Agarwala; Matt Burke; Jennifer Doherty-Bigara; Patrycja Klusak; Kamiar Mohaddes |
| Abstract: | Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, but research on how climate change affects sovereign risks is limited. This paper provides forward-looking regional analysis of the effects of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness, probability of default and the cost of borrowing for the Caribbean economies. Our results indicate that there is substantial variation in the sensitivity of ratings to climate change across the region which is due to the non-linear nature of ratings. Our findings improve the identification and management of sovereign climate risk and provides a forward-looking assessment of how climate change could affect the cost of accessing international finance. As such, it leads to a suite of policy options for countries in the region. |
| Keywords: | sovereign credit rating, climate change, counterfactual analysis, climate-economy models, sovereign debt, physical risks, fiscal policy, transition risks, Latin America, Caribbean |
| JEL: | C33 C53 G10 G18 H63 O44 O54 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-26&r=mac |
| By: | Ruth A. Judson |
| Abstract: | In principle, physical currency should be disappearing: payments are increasingly electronic, with new technologies emerging rapidly, and governments increasingly restrict large-denomination notes as a way to reduce crime and tax evasion. Nonetheless, demand for U.S. banknotes continues to grow, and consistently increases at times of crisis both within and outside the United States because dollar banknotes remain a desirable store of value and medium of exchange when local currency or bank deposits are inferior. Most recently, the COVID crisis resulted in historic increases in currency demand. After allowing for the effect of crises, U.S. banknote demand appears to be driven by the usual factors determining money demand, with no discernible downward trend. In this work, I review developments in demand for U.S. currency over the past few decades with a focus on developments since early 2020. In addition, I revisit the question of international demand: I present the raw data available for measuring international banknote flows and updates on indirect methods of estimating the stock of currency held abroad. These methods continue to indicate that a large share of U.S. currency is held abroad, especially in the $100 denomination. As shown earlier (Judson 2012, 2017), once a country or region begins using dollars, subsequent crises result in additional inflows: the dominant sources of international demand over recent decades are the countries and regions that were already heavy dollar users in the early to mid-1990s. While international demand for U.S. currency eased during the early 2000s as financial conditions improved, the abrupt return to strong international demand that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 has not slowed and reached new heights over 2020 and 2021. In contrast, however, the growth rate of demand for smaller denominations is slowing, perhaps indicating the first signs of declining domestic cash demand. |
| Keywords: | Currency; Banknotes; Dollarization; Crisis |
| JEL: | C82 E40 E49 |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1387&r=mac |
| By: | Hubert Kempf (Université Paris-Saclay, ENS Paris-Saclay); stéphane Rossignol (Université Paris 8) |
| Abstract: | We study optimal lockdown decisions taken by a policymaker facing a pandemic modelled according to the standard SIR deterministic model. The policymaker trades off the economic costs and the mortality record of the pandemic which depend on the severity and duration of the lockdown. We contrast the shortsightedness versus the farsightedness of the policymaker. Policy-related peaks and rebounds are characterized and explain why a zero-Covid policy is self-defeating. When the ICU constraint is present and the policymaker is shortsighed, there is a large intermediate range of 'values of life' for which the optimal lockdown consists in exactly saturating this constraint. A farsighted policy is not too severe so as to avoid a rebound. The shortest duration consistent with a given health goal is not the less costly. In contrast with the case of shortsightness, a farsighted policy taking into account the ICU constraint sets successive lockdowns of decreasing severity. We address the impact of vaccination on the optimal choice of a lockdown. |
| Keywords: | Pandemic; lockdown policy; Covid-19 |
| JEL: | D61 H51 I18 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eve:wpaper:23-06&r=mac |
| By: | Brendan Brundage (Department of Economics, Colorado State University, USA); Daniele Tavani (Department of Economics, Colorado State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | We present a simple equilibrium model of group conflict between a dominant and a marginalized group that builds on Lewis (1985) and more recently Darity (2001). The model formalizes several key insights of stratification economics (Darity, 2005): to begin with, discrimination is a purposeful activity pursued by dominant groups in order to maintain their status in society. However, not every member of the dominant group needs to fully engage in discriminatory effort. In other words, dominant group members can free ride on discriminatory actions taken by members of the same group. At the same time, though, someone must have discriminated, otherwise discrimination would not exist in equilibrium. We also show that discrimination is wasteful from a societal standpoint; yet, it persists because of the dominant group’s interest in maintaining their status, the fact that marginalized groups’ agency in lessening the effects of discrimination has costs, and the costly and imperfect nature of anti-discrimination enforcement. In particular, when the burden of proving discriminatory behavior falls on individuals in the marginalized group, discrimination will never be completely removed. Finally, we highlight how racial income inequality reverberates into wealth inequality (i.e. stratification), and we discuss the role of reparations in mitigating such outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Group conflict, stratification, racial inequality |
| JEL: | D31 D63 D74 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2406&r=mac |
| By: | Nicolas Lebrun (HM - Habiter le Monde - UR UPJV 4287 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne) |
| Abstract: | At a time when the term proximity is facing an inflation of more or less well-defined usages, this article proposes some elements of clarification. To this end, I believe it would be useful to apply the resource/asset binomial, proposed 30 years ago by G. Colletis and B. Pecqueur, to the study of proximities. This distinction between potential and activation is based on the same logic as the motility/mobility binomial proposed by V. Kaufmann at the dawn of the 2000s. This will enable us to return to what makes proximity a resource, so that it can be invoked wisely. We can see that mobility takes up too much space in our understanding of the value of proximity. However, at a time when environmental transitions are more than necessary, a maximized and reasoned use of proximity seems necessary. The search for what I call a hyperproxible society must therefore be an accepted objective. |
| Abstract: | Alors que le terme proximité fait face à une inflation d'usages plus ou moins balisés, cet article propose des éléments de clarification. Pour cela, il me semble utile d'appliquer le binôme ressource/actif, proposé il y a 30 ans par G. Colletis et B. Pecqueur, à l'étude des proximités. Cette distinction entre le potentiel et l'activation, repose sur la même logique que celle présente dans le binôme motilité/mobilité proposé par V. Kaufmann à l'aube des années 2000. Cela permettra ensuite de revenir sur ce qui fait de la proximité une ressource, afin que son invocation se fasse à bon escient. On constate ainsi que l'entrée mobilité prend trop de places dans l'appréhension de la valorisation de la proximité. Mais, à l'heure où des transitions environnementales sont plus que nécessaires, un usage maximisé et raisonné de la proximité apparaît nécessaire. Dès lors, la recherche de ce que j'appelle une société hyperproxible doit être un objectif assumé. |
| Keywords: | Proximity, Resource, Active, Transitions, Mobility, Geography, Territorial economy, Proximité, Ressource, Actif, Mobilité, Géographie, Economie territoriale |
| Date: | 2024–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04522548&r=mac |
| By: | Pedro Afonso Fernandes |
| Abstract: | Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial production, retail trade turnover or economic confidence. Neuro-dynamic programming (NDP) provides tools to deal with forecasting and other sequential problems with such high-dimensional states spaces. Whereas conventional forecasting methods penalises the difference (or loss) between predicted and actual outcomes, NDP favours the difference between temporally successive predictions, following an interactive and trial-and-error approach. Past data provides a guidance to train the models, but in a different way from ordinary least squares (OLS) and other supervised learning methods, signalling the adjustment costs between sequential states. We found that it is possible to train a GDP forecasting model with data concerned with other countries that performs better than models trained with past data from the tested country (Portugal). In addition, we found that non-linear architectures to approximate the value function of a sequential problem, namely, neural networks can perform better than a simple linear architecture, lowering the out-of-sample mean absolute forecast error (MAE) by 32% from an OLS model. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.03737&r=mac |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Jean R. F. K. Bouanza (Brazzaville, Congo); Peter Agyemang-Mintah (Zayed University, Abu Dhabi, UAE) |
| Abstract: | The present study examines the relevance of globalization in lifelong gender inclusive education for structural transformation. The focus of the research is on 41 countries in Africa using data from 2004 to 2021. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is employed to assess the problem statement within the remit of interactive regressions. Gender inclusive lifelong learning is measured as gender inclusive education acquired during the three levels of education, notably: primary, secondary and tertiary inclusive education stages. Total globalization and corresponding components (social, economic and political dynamics) are employed as moderators. The attendant sub-components of economic (i.e., trade and financial) and social (i.e., interpersonal, informational and cultural) globalization are also employed for robustness purposes. The hypotheses that globalization and gender inclusive lifelong learning individually influence structural transformation are not validated. Furthermore, the hypothesis that globalization dynamics moderate lifelong gender inclusive education to promote structural transformation is also not validated. Clarification as to why the hypotheses are not validated is provided. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | globalization; gender; inclusive education; structural transformation; Africa |
| JEL: | E60 F40 F59 D60 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/013&r=mac |
| By: | Cormier, Ben; Heinzel, Mirko; Reinsberg, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Informal groupings like the G7 aim to address global development challenges but lack the administrative and budgetary capacity to drive change directly. Instead, the G7 seeks to catalyze international action that reflects its priorities. For example, the G7 attempts to set the international development agenda by publishing annual communiqués with actionable commitments designed to influence the behavior of G7 donor countries, non-G7 donor countries, and international organizations. But questions about the G7’s ultimate impact persist, as critics contend the informal G7 can do little more than pay lip service to development challenges. We provide empirical evidence that the G7 shapes international development in two ways. First, when the G7 emphasizes a policy area in its annual communiqués, donors allocate more aid to that policy area. Second, when the G7 highlights a policy area in its annual communiqués, donors establish more trust funds in that policy area. This suggests the G7 serves simultaneous coordination and orchestration roles in international development: it coordinates its member states’ aid and orchestrates non-G7 bilateral and multilateral aid. The study’s theory, approach, and findings can inform further research on whether and how informal organizations ultimately affect states, formal international organizations, international cooperation, and global governance. |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2024–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122594&r=mac |
| By: | Antonello Cincotta (Università Sapienza di Roma - Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici) |
| Abstract: | On the issue of male-female relations, the author recalls G. Bachelard's insightful perspective on the epistemological obstacle. The relevant 'counter-thought', this time, does not contradict the past. |
| Keywords: | male-female relations; equality; epistemological obstacle. |
| JEL: | K49 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00062&r=mac |
| By: | Jules Gazeaud (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Claire Ricard (IDinsight, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have repeatedly found positive impacts on enrollment but mixed effects on learning. This evidence is puzzling as positive impacts on enrollment point to the potential for clear learning gains, and CCT programs have generally been motivated by the ultimate objective of enhancing human capital and breaking the inter-generational transmission of poverty. Existing explanations for the lack of clear learning gains relate to the short-term nature of most evaluations, which may not provide enough time for the effects to materialize. In a recent paper (Gazeaud and Ricard, 2024), we propose and evaluate an alternative explanation for the apparent puzzle of why we see large impacts of CCT programs on enrollment but not on learning. Motivated by reports that ‘‘schooling is not learning'', we focus on supply-side factors and suggest that when no accompanying measures are taken to manage the gains in enrollment, the introduction of a CCT program can deteriorate school quality and thus constrain learning for children who enroll in school regardless of the existence of the program. |
| Abstract: | Les études empiriques sur les programmes de transferts monétaires conditionnels ont à plusieurs reprises révélé des effets positifs sur la scolarisation, mais des effets contrastés sur l'apprentissage. Ces résultats laissent perplexe, car les effets positifs sur la scolarisation laissent présager des gains d'apprentissage évidents, et les programmes de transferts monétaires conditionnels ont généralement été motivés par l'objectif ultime d'améliorer le capital humain et de rompre la transmission intergénérationnelle de la pauvreté. Les explications existantes concernant l'absence de gains d'apprentissage clairs sont liées au court-termisme de la plupart des évaluations, qui sont peut-être effectuées trop tôt pour que les effets se matérialisent. Dans un article récent (Gazeaud et Ricard, 2024), nous proposons et évaluons une autre explication à l'énigme apparente de l'impact important des programmes de transferts monétaires sur la scolarisation mais pas sur l'apprentissage. Motivés par les rapports selon lesquels "schooling is not learning", nous nous concentrons sur les facteurs liés à l'offre éducative et suggérons que lorsqu'aucune mesure d'accompagnement n'est prise pour gérer le plus grand nombre d'élèves scolarisés, l'introduction d'un programme de transferts monétaires conditionnels peut détériorer la qualité de l'éducation et donc limiter l'apprentissage pour les enfants qui iraient à l'école en l'absence du programme. |
| Keywords: | Conditional cash transfers, Learning outcomes, Class size, Program scaleup, Morocco, Transferts monétaires conditionnels, Résultats d'apprentissage, Taille des classes, Extension de programme, Maroc |
| Date: | 2024–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04523524&r=mac |
| By: | Bright A. Gyamfi (Udaipur, India); Divine Q. Agozie (University of Ghana, Business School); Ernest B. Ali (University of Ghana, Ghana); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | As the environmental sustainability effectiveness of various political systems is taken into consideration, it is doubtful as to whether the presumption of the overall efficiency of democracy can be sustained in global governance architecture. The effectiveness of autocracies and democracies (i.e., governance indicators are compared in the present study) with reference to strengths and weaknesses in environmental objectives. This analysis explores the effect of autocracy, democracy, as well as the trend of globalization on CO2 emissions for open and closed economies from 1990 to 2020. Crucial indicators such as economic growth, renewable energy and non-renewable energy are controlled for while examining the roles of economic expansion on the disaggregated energy consumption portfolios for both open and closed economies. The empirical analysis revealed some insightful results. First, for the open economies, with the expectation of non-renewable energy which show a positive significant impact on emissions, all variables show a negative effect on emissions. Furthermore, the closed economies result indicate that, apart from renewable energy which has a negative relationship with emissions, all the variables including the interaction terms have a positive relation with emissions. However, an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis was validated for both economies. |
| Keywords: | Open economies, closed economies, democracy, autocracy, Environmental Kuznets Curve, globalization index, environmental sustainability |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/005&r=mac |
| By: | Fasani, Francesco (University of Milan); Mazza, Jacopo (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the Covid-19 effects on workers and labor markets by focusing on the experience of migrant key workers in EU countries. Our analysis, based on survey data on more than 3 million workers, explores three main aspects. First, we document the over-representation of migrant workers in key occupations, particularly in low-qualified roles. Second, we examine the selection into key occupations. According to our estimates, women are more likely to be key workers, the relationship with education is V-shaped, and EU and Extra EU migrants are, respectively, 12 and 15 percent more likely to be key workers than comparable natives. Finally, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on the labor market, showing that migrant key workers had to extend their working hours during the pandemic and, nevertheless, faced a 2-3 times higher probability of being laid off relative to natives. Our findings imply that migrant workers played a crucial role in the response to the pandemic, but endured a harsher fate than native workers. |
| Keywords: | migrant workers, COVID-19, essential occupations |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16884&r=mac |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | The global economic environment has changed as the U.S.—and to a less confrontational degree, the European Union—have clearly established a context of technological rivalry with China. Hindering China’s progress in the sophistication of semiconductor production has become a centerpiece of current U.S. foreign policy. While the U.S. is clearly winning the semiconductor war, the picture is different when it comes to clean-energy technology. Both technology wars overlap with access to and refinement of critical raw materials (CRM), which are key upstream components of the corresponding value chains, encompassing mineral-rich emerging markets and developing economies. The way in which the U.S. and the European Union approach the goal of self-sufficiency, as well as access to and refinement of CRMs, will make a big difference to their stakes in the technology wars. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb41-23&r=mac |
| By: | Miyako Imamura (School of Management, Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | This study clarifies how people working in Japan learned paradox theory based on the outcome of a series of online training on paradoxical leadership. Paradox theory has been the focus of attention in management studies, and its philosophy originates in Asian cultures. Japanese workplaces can be seen as complicated places that have been embedded in Japanese culture and simultaneously have the effect of Western working culture. Paradox is embedded in Japanese company activity because of its cultural context; however, the job scope of each one is becoming narrower and their language use is becoming more explicit because of modernization. Therefore, the paradox is seen as a problem for Japanese working people. The observation of participants’ discussion and outcome of their report also shows that they see the paradox as a “problem to be solved†and wish to learn a solution when the training started. They gradually understand the idea of paradox theory; each condition relies on each other, goes back and forth, synergizing each other, but never disappears. Participants then became interested in methods to navigate paradox such as guardrail, gradually gaining a positive image of paradox. |
| Keywords: | paradox, Japanese context, modernization |
| JEL: | M0 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2404r&r=mac |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the study is to assess if a policy of female inclusive education should be complemented with a policy of female ownership of bank accounts to fight female unemployment. The study therefore examines how female ownership of bank accounts moderates the incidence of female education on female unemployment. The focus is on 44 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 2004 to 2018 and the empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions. The interactions are tailored such that female ownership of bank accounts influence the effect of female inclusive education on female unemployment. From the empirical findings, it is evident that female ownership of bank accounts does not effectively moderate female education in order to reduce female unemployment unless complementary policies are considered. The complementary policies should be in view of boosting the interaction between female education and female bank account ownership in increasing employment opportunities for the female gender and by extension, reducing female unemployment. The invalidity of the moderating effect is robust to the inclusion of more elements in the conditioning information set as well as accounting for other dimensions of endogeneity such as simultaneity and the unobserved heterogeneity. Policy implications are discussed. This study contributes to the extant literature by assessing how female ownership of bank accounts complement female inclusive education to reduce female unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Inequality; Gender; Inclusive development; Unemployment |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I32 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/009&r=mac |
| By: | Volker, Jamey; Hosseinzade, Rey; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | Senate Bill (SB) 743 (2013) and its related regulations eliminated automobile level of service (LOS) and replaced it with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as the primary transportation impact metric for land development projects under the California Environmental Quality Act. Actual implementation of the LOS-to-VMT shift was left up to lead agencies, primarily local governments. The LOS-to-VMT shift was expected to create many challenges, given the often-limited resources of local governments, the entrenched use of LOS, and the perceived lack of established practice regarding VMT estimation, mitigation, and monitoring. With those concerns in mind, researchers at the University of California, Davis investigated how local governments have been implementing the LOS-to-VMT shift for land development projects. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that investigation. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, implementation, land use, level of service, metrics, urban development, vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4764h534&r=mac |
| By: | Janssen, Maarten; Knuuttila, Tarja; Morgan, Mary S. |
| Abstract: | This comment on 'Economic theories and their Dueling interpretations' questions the descriptive adequacy of the ‘sociology of economics' proposed by Gilboa, Postlewaite, Samuelson, and Schmeidler (GPSS) (2022). We ask whether economists still perceive the role of microeconomic theory as central as do GPSS. In particular, is present-day economics unified by the principles of maximising, subject to constraints and equilibrium analysis? We argue that this is not the case. GPSS’ appeal to the interpretative flexibility of economic theories appears apologetic, especially the suggestion that theories and models, which once were considered positive descriptions or predictive instruments, are now cast as analytical or methodological exercises. We conclude on a more constructive note, drawing from the recent philosophical discussion of modelling which, quite paradoxically, grants highly idealized and simplified models a more important role than GPSS appear to allow. |
| Keywords: | interpretation; theories; models; economics; microeconomics; Horizon 2020 (Grant Agreement No 818772) |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122588&r=mac |
| By: | Passmore, Reid; Watkins, Kari E; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | Planners and engineers need to know how to assess the impacts of proposed cycling infrastructure projects, so that projects that have the greatest potential impact on the actual and perceived cycling safety are selected over those that would be less effective. Planners also need to be able to communicate these impacts to decision-makers and the public. This research addresses these problems using the BikewaySim cycling shortest path model. BikewaySim uses link impedance functions to account for link attributes (e.g., presence of a bike lane, steep gradients, the number of lanes) and find the least impedance path for any origin-destination pair. In this project, BikewaySim was used to assess the impacts of using time-only and time with attribute impedances, as well as two proposed cycling infrastructure projects, on 28, 392 potential trips for a study area in Atlanta, Georgia. These impacts were visualized through bikesheds, individual routing, and betweenness centrality. Two metrics, percent detour and change in impedance, were also calculated. Results demonstrate that BikewaySim can effectively visualize potential improvements of cycling infrastructure and has additional applications for trip planning. An expanded study area was also used to demonstrate bike + transit mode routing for four study area locations. Visualizations examine the accessibility to TAZs, travel time, and the utilized transit modes for each location. Compared to the walk + transit mode, the bike + transit mode provided greater access to other TAZs and reached them in a shorter amount of time. The locations near the center of the transit network where many routes converge offered the greatest accessibility for both the bike + transit and walk + transit modes. The difference in accessibility was greatest for locations near fewer transit routes. This research demonstrated how BikewaySim can be used to both examine the current cycling network and show changes in accessibility likely to result from new infrastructure. Both BikewaySim and TransitSim are open-source Python based tools that will be made available for practitioners to use in bicycle network planning. Future research will focus on calibrating link impedance functions with revealed preference data (cycling GPS traces) and survey response data (surveys on user preference for cycling infrastructure). View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, bicycle networks, shortest path routing, bicycle route choice, bicycle facility preference, first and last mile travel |
| Date: | 2024–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7pt4d1tk&r=mac |
| By: | Hamza Nidaazzi (UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad [Marrakech]); Hind Hourmat Allah (UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad [Marrakech]) |
| Abstract: | Behavioral finance, a thriving domain within management science, is garnering increasing interest. However, the concept of family firms' financial conservatism in Morocco has been relatively unexplored. To facilitate the initiation of a discourse on this issue, we found it opportune to delve into and analyze this aspect. In order to open a debate on this problem, the aim of this paper is to explore and analyze the junction that can exist between financial strategy and conservatism in the family business. Using a qualitative study, this paper explores the points of view, perceptions, and behaviors of conservative managers and owners of twelve Moroccan Family firms. In contrast to the existing literature, results show that conservative family firms are profitable, have high levels of cash flow, and face lower costs in times of crisis. Our analyses also shows that financial conservatism is only threatening if it is forced due to financial constraints. |
| Abstract: | La finance comportementale, un domaine prolifique en sciences de gestion, suscite un intérêt croissant. Cependant, le concept du conservatisme financier des entreprises familiales au Maroc reste peu exploré. Et c'est pour contribuer au lancement du débat sur cette problématique que nous avons jugé opportun d'explorer et d'analyser cette question. L'objectif de ce papier consiste à analyser la jonction qui peut exister entre la stratégie financière et la culture conservatrice de l'entreprise familiale. En utilisant une étude qualitative, le papier explore les points de vue, les perceptions et les comportements des managers et propriétaires de douze entreprises familiales marocaines. Contrairement à la littérature, les résultats montrent que les entreprises familiales conservatrices sont rentables, disposent d'une grande liquidité et qu'elles étaient confrontées à un coût moindre en cas de crise. Nos analyses montrent également que le conservatisme financier n'est menaçant que s'il est forcé en raison de contraintes financières. |
| Keywords: | Family Business, Conservatism, Financial Policy, Behavioral Finance, Sustainability, Entreprise Familiale, Conservatisme, Politique Financière, Finance Comportementale, Pérennité. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04518830&r=mac |
| By: | Flavio Calvino; Chiara Criscuolo; Antonio Ughi |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented global economic downturn, affecting productivity, business dynamics, and digital technology adoption. Using a comprehensive commercial database from Spiceworks Ziff Davis, this study analyses the firm-level drivers of digitalisation during the pandemic across 20 European countries. The findings show that a considerable share of firms introduced new digital technologies during the COVID-19 crisis. Notably, firms that were larger, more digitalised, and more productive before the pandemic were more likely to introduce new digital technologies in 2020 and 2021. Additionally, firms with pre-existing complementary technologies had a higher likelihood of adopting digital applications that gained momentum during the pandemic (such as digital commerce, collaborative software, cloud, and analytics). These patterns may increase polarisation among the best-performing firms and the rest of the business population. Public policy can play a key role in fostering an inclusive digital transformation in the post-pandemic era. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Digitalisation, Productivity, Technology adoption |
| JEL: | O33 D22 |
| Date: | 2024–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2024/03-en&r=mac |
| By: | Ilias Filippou; Christian Garciga; James Mitchell; My T. Nguyen |
| Abstract: | We use natural language processing methods to quantify the sentiment expressed in the Federal Reserve's anecdotal summaries of current economic conditions in the national and 12 Federal Reserve District-level economies as published eight times per year in the Beige Book since 1970. We document that both national and District-level economic sentiment tend to rise and fall with the US business cycle. But economic sentiment is extremely heterogeneous across Districts, and we find that national economic sentiment is not always the simple aggregation of District-level sentiment. We show that the heterogeneity in District-level economic sentiment can be used, over and above the information contained in national economic sentiment, to better forecast US recessions. |
| Keywords: | recessions; natural language processing; sentiment; Beige book; regional economies |
| Date: | 2024–04–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:98080&r=mac |
| By: | Bächmann, Ann-Christin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Bellmann, Lisa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Gensicke, Miriam (Kantar Public); Kohaut, Susanne (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Möller, Iris (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schwengler, Barbara (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Tschersich, Nikolai (Kantar Public); Umkehrer, Matthias (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This data report describes the IAB Establishment Panel (IAB-BP) 1993-2022. The IAB Establishment Panel is an annual representative survey on various topics such as the determinants of labour demand. It has been conducted by the IAB since 1993 in West Germany and since 1996 in East Germany, too. The IAB Establishment Panel is the central basis for the analysis of labour demand in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Gewichtung ; Betriebsbefragung ; Datenanalyse ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datengewinnung ; Datenorganisation ; Datenzugang ; IAB-Betriebspanel ; Datenanonymisierung ; Stichprobenverfahren ; 10.5164/IAB.IABBP9322.de.en.v1 ; 1993-2022 |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202316(en)&r=mac |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Oxford, UK); Sara le Roux (Oxford, UK) |
| Abstract: | The study investigates the role of governance (i.e., ‘voice & accountability’, political stability/no violence, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, corruption-control and the rule of law) in the incidence of short-term debt services on infrastructure development in the perspective of telecommunication infrastructure and access to electricity. The focus of the study is on 52 African countries for the period 2002-2021. The generalized method of moments is employed as estimation strategy and the following findings are established. Debt service has a negative unconditional effect on access to electricity and telecommunication infrastructure. Governance dynamics moderate the negative effect of debt service on infrastructure dynamics. Effective moderation is from regulatory quality and corruption-control for access to electricity and from government effectiveness, regulatory quality, corruption-control and rule of law, for telecommunication infrastructure. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Debt service, governance; information technology; access to electricity; Africa |
| JEL: | F34 H63 O10 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/003&r=mac |
| By: | Berg, Marco (infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH); Cramer, Ralph (infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH); Dickmann, Christian (infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH); Gilberg, Reiner (infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH); Jesske, Birgit (infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH); Kleudgen, Martin (infas Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH); Beste, Jonas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dummert, Sandra (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Frodermann, Corinna (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Malich, Sonja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schwarz, Stefan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wenzig, Claudia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Trappmann, Mark (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Bähr, Sebastian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Bömmel, Nadja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Coban, Mustafa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Collischon, Matthias (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Gundert, Stefanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Küfner, Benjamin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Mackeben, Jan (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Müller, Bettina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stegmaier, Jens (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Teichler, Nils (IAB); Wunder, Anja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "FDZ-Datenreporte (FDZ data reports) describe FDZ data in detail. As a result, this series of reports has a dual function: on the one hand, those using the reports can ascertain whether the data offered is suitable for their research task; on the other, the data can be used to prepare evaluations. This data report documents the data preparation of the PASS wave 16 and is based upon the fifteenth wave’s data report: Marco Berg, Ralph Cramer, Christian Dickmann, Reiner Gilberg, Birgit Jesske, Martin Kleudgen (all infas Institute for Applied Social Sciences), Jonas Beste, Sandra Dummert, Corinna Frodermann, Stefan Schwarz, Claudia Wenzig, Mark Trappmann, Sophie Altschul, Sebastian Bähr, Matthias Collischon, Mustafa Coban, Patrick Gleiser, Stefanie Gundert, Benjamin Küfner, Jan Mackeben, Sonja Malich, Bettina Müller, Jens Stegmaier, Nils Teichler, Stefanie Unger (all Institute for Employment Research (IAB)): Codebook and documentation of the panel Study ‘Labour Market and Social Security’ (PASS), Datenreport wave 15, FDZ Datenreport, 10/2022 (en), Nürnberg." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Datenaufbereitung ; Datenorganisation ; Datenqualität ; Datenzugang ; Erhebungsmethode ; Datensatzbeschreibung ; personenbezogene Daten ; private Haushalte ; Stichprobe ; 10.5164/IAB.PASS-SUF0622.de.en.v1 ; IAB-Haushaltspanel ; 2017-2022 |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfda:202312(en)&r=mac |
| By: | Koopmans, Pim (Leiden University); van Lent, Max (Leiden University); Been, Jim (University of Leiden) |
| Abstract: | The consequence of the arrival of children for the gender wage gap - known as the child penalty - is substantial and has been documented for many countries. Little is still known about the impact of having children beyond paid work in the labor market, such as home production. In this paper we estimate - deploying an event study with Dutch survey data - the child penalty in both home production and the labor market. In line with the literature we find no labor market effects for men. For women we find a strong reduction in work hours and lower wages. However, we find an increase in home production for women roughly similar to the decline in paid work. Consequently, time allocated to the labor market plus home production is roughly equal across gender before and after the arrival of children. This result rejects the hypothesis that women substitute paid work for leisure after the arrival of children. |
| Keywords: | gender gaps, child penalty, intra-household allocation, event study, home production |
| JEL: | C33 D12 D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16871&r=mac |
| By: | Gsottbauer, Elisabeth; Kirchler, Michael; König-Kersting, Christian |
| Abstract: | To address the climate crisis, it is necessary to transform the economy, with the finance industry taking a central role by implementing sustainable investment policies. This study aims to understand the motivations and preferences of its key players—financial professionals and climate experts. Here we use an incentivized experiment to measure the willingness to forgo payout to curb carbon emissions and a survey to elicit attitudes and beliefs toward the climate crisis. We provide suggestive evidence that financial professionals have a lower willingness to curb carbon emissions, are less concerned about climate change, and are less supportive of carbon taxes compared to climate experts. We report differences in motivations and priorities, with financial professionals emphasizing economic and reputational considerations and climate experts prioritizing ecological and social consequences of the crisis. Our findings highlight the importance of financial incentives and reputational concerns in motivating financial professionals to address the climate crisis. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2024–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122590&r=mac |
| By: | Jonas Esser; Mateus Maia; Andrew C. Parnell; Judith Bosmans; Hanneke van Dongen; Thomas Klausch; Keefe Murphy |
| Abstract: | In recent years, theoretical results and simulation evidence have shown Bayesian additive regression trees to be a highly-effective method for nonparametric regression. Motivated by cost-effectiveness analyses in health economics, where interest lies in jointly modelling the costs of healthcare treatments and the associated health-related quality of life experienced by a patient, we propose a multivariate extension of BART applicable in regression and classification analyses with several correlated outcome variables. Our framework overcomes some key limitations of existing multivariate BART models by allowing each individual response to be associated with different ensembles of trees, while still handling dependencies between the outcomes. In the case of continuous outcomes, our model is essentially a nonparametric version of seemingly unrelated regression. Likewise, our proposal for binary outcomes is a nonparametric generalisation of the multivariate probit model. We give suggestions for easily interpretable prior distributions, which allow specification of both informative and uninformative priors. We provide detailed discussions of MCMC sampling methods to conduct posterior inference. Our methods are implemented in the R package `suBART'. We showcase their performance through extensive simulations and an application to an empirical case study from health economics. By also accommodating propensity scores in a manner befitting a causal analysis, we find substantial evidence for a novel trauma care intervention's cost-effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.02228&r=mac |
| By: | Abigaba, Micah Lucy; Bengtsson, Jens; Ketelaars, Martijn (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Kort, Peter M. (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:bd4b8da1-6517-4d14-8af3-186cc0dc7a27&r=mac |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, market prices, retail prices, food prices |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:march2024&r=mac |
| By: | Rodolfo G. Campos; Benedikt Heid; Jacopo Timini |
| Abstract: | The Cold War was the defining episode of geopolitical fragmentation in the twentieth century. Trade between East and West across the Iron Curtain (a symbolical and physical barrier dividing Europe into two distinct areas) was restricted, but the severity of these restrictions varied over time. We quantify the trade and welfare effects of the Iron Curtain and show how the difficulty of trading across the Iron Curtain fluctuated throughout the Cold War. Using a novel dataset on trade between the two economic blocs and a quantitative trade model, we find that while the Iron Curtain at its height represented a tariff equivalent of 48% in 1951, trade between East and West gradually became easier until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Despite the easing of trade restrictions, we estimate that the Iron Curtain roughly halved East-West trade flows and caused substantial welfare losses in the Eastern bloc countries that persisted until the end of the Cold War. Conversely, the Iron Curtain led to an increase in intra-bloc trade, especially in the Eastern bloc, which outpaced the integration of Western Europe in the run-up to the formation of the European Union. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.03508&r=mac |
| By: | Steffen Altmann (University of Duiburg-Essen, University of Copenhagen); Andreas Grunewald (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management); Jonas Radbruch (Humboldt University Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Nudge-based policies are an important instrument for many policymakers. Based on a laboratory experiment featuring a dual-task paradigm, we examine the effects of two common types of nudge interventions—the simplification of complex decisions and the implementation of high-quality defaults. We find that these interventions do not only improve choices in the targeted domain, but also yield substantial positive indirect effects on non-targeted domains. The latter emerge through a reallocation of cognitive resources. Furthermore, the relative importance of direct and indirect effects varies systematically across the population. Evaluations that focus only on the targeted domain therefore significantly underestimate the interventions’ overall effectiveness and provide a biased assessment of their distributional consequences. |
| Keywords: | nudges; default options; administrative burden; limited attention; limited cognitive resources; behavioral economics; laboratory experiment; |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:503&r=mac |